Talk Elections

A continuation in July of SurveyUSA's May and June Governor approval polls, among 600 adults from each state's population.

The Vorlon's the one who can tell you what all that means.  :)

Not many changes that really stand out to me in terms of a trendline between the three months, except for Tim Pawlenty's steady slide in approval in Minnesota from 54%-38% in May to 43%-50% in July and I'd still want another month of stability at these numbers or further downward movement to make sure of this motion.

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StateGovTrackingJuly2005.htm

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For all the curious people out there who can't wait to click on the link:

Jodi Rell (R-CT) is now tied as the top-rated governor with Mike Rounds (R-SD) at 73% approval, 18% disapproval.

The two highest-rated Democrats are Joe Manchin (WV) and Mark Warner (VA) with 65% approval, 25% disapproval and 63% approval, 25% approval, respectively.

The bottom governor is still Bob Taft (R-OH) with 17% approval, 76% disapproval.

The lowest-rated Democrat governor is Jennifer Granholm, with 37% approval and 59% disapproval.

Seven governors ratings stayed the same from June to July.  They are:

Mike Huckabee (R-AR) - 56% approve, 38% disapprove
Robert Ehrlich (R-MD) - 48% approve, 45% disapprove
Ed Rendell (D-PA) - 44% approve, 49% disapprove
Ruth Ann Minner (D-DE) - 43% approve, 49% disapprove
Ted Kulongoski (D-OR) - 38% approve, 50% disapprove
Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) - 38% approve, 55% disapprove
Matt Blunt (R-MO) - 35% approve, 61% disapprove

California
Approve: 36% Disapprove: 61%

Poor, Arnold.

No surprise there.

Democrats need pickups in New York, California, Massachusetts, and Maryland (all solid blue states) in 2006.

I really wish Warner could run for re-election...

He'd beat Kilgore, that's for sure.

I'm with you.

How big is the question?  Close race (5% or less)? Or total blowout (10% plus)?

Given the political makeup of Virginia, it wouldn't be a blowout, but it would be a decent-sized victory (6-8 points IMO). Of course, if Warner could run for reelection, the Republicans would put up a semi-punching bag candidate anyway.

44% approve while 49% disapprove of Rendell. (same as June numbers). I have stated in the past, though, that these frequent SurveyUSA polls don't seem to be all that accurate. Regardless, a number of polls have made obvious Eddie's falling approval ratings which make me happy to say the least. The celebrity factor was big in '02 for Rendell. 2006 will bring a change.

It seems like everyone just loves Rell, Rounds, and Hoeven. Too bad none of them are likely Presidential candidates...

on the flip side, a lot of people just hate Taft, Murkwoski, Blunt, and Fletcher.

Oddly enough, Republicans fill both the very top and very bottom. 6 of the top 10 are Republican, and 6 of the bottom 10 are Republican.

Hoeven might run for Senate though.   :)

Republicans are often motre polarising, especially in states that swing both ways.

Why is Granholm so unpopular?

Bad economy=who ever is in power being unpopular

Actually I think there are structural factors influencing the results of these polls, as I've said before. People in some states just like their politicians more, not to mention to obvious external factors.

Rounds, by the way, will hopefully relieve Tim Johnson of his Senate seat at the next opportunity.

And pigs fly in Virginia!

Good news for Democrats.

Governors mentioned as 2008 possiblities

Democrats:
Schweitzer MT 58-31
Richardson NM 53-41
Warner VA 63-25

Republicans:
Owens CO 50-41
Bush FL 52-44
Pawlenty MN 43-50
Sanford SC 50-39


Warner/Schwietzer 2008!

Are Taft's 17-76 ratings some sort of record?

Wow, now Pataki is more popular than Arnold. Of course Arnold has a kicking 36-61 rating. Only Taft has a higher disapproval rating than Arnold.

It would be sweet to knock off Pawlenty in 2006.

It would be sweet if someone gave me a 645i convertible, but that's not going to happen either.

Mike Hatch

He'll give me one? Well tell him I'd like it silver gray metallic with the dakota leather package and the premium sound system.

If you look at the breakdowns, there's some weird stuff. Pataki, a Republican from upstate NY, is more popular in NYC (just the 5 bouroughs) than in upstate NY.

Bredesen's numbers are so funny.  Look in depth at the Party and Ideology approvals.

Rendell's regional approval is very odd.

West: 27-65
NE: 39-53
SE: 68-24 :)
T: 32-61

How is Rendell's approval higher in the T than in Western Pennsylvania?

Yes, no way a Democratic Senator like Tim Johnson that won by 2 points in a soild Republican state would lose to a Republican Governor like Mike Rounds with 73% approval ratings!

That area in the SurveyUSA polls are always unusual.

The "T" should really be split. South Central should get its own polling region. This area has nothing in common with the rest of the T.

Be at the alley behind the local coffee shop at 11:11 tomorrow night with $100,000, aluminum foil, and no-stick cooking spray.

Isn't too often I agree with you, but I think you're right on this one. After all, I can't believe they even found 17% of our state's population to say they approve of Bob Taft. If they polled 600 adults, they would have to find about 100 people who think Bob is a stand up guy to get those numbers. They must have found all 100 who actually think that. What are the odds?

You know, people like to live where there are natural disaters for some strange reason. People in the most populated states have all kinds of treacheries to deal with every day. Hurricanes in Florida. Earthquakes and mudslides in California. Bob taft on Ohio.

It's so much fun to throw rocks at big Bob. Even Republicans are doing it.

I'm sure with only 600 sampled the MoE is high and the number of junk polls is higher. Any that have moved 3 or more points without good reason (ie, not Pawlenty) are the crap polls.

600 actually isn't bad...4% MoE or so isn't it?  Certainly acceptable.

Pawlenty could be a crap poll, but looking at trending, it wouldn't be my top choice.

I think this actually overestimates Pawlenty's approval. To have it only fall a bit when the state government is shut down is suprising.

Hmm, Gregoire went down 3 points! Still higher than May though.

The 3 point drop is probably because of the gas tax raise (which isn't really a "raise" considering inflation, but tell that to the stupid Republicans) and I'm sure she'll recover. She could be to the 50's by 2008.

The sa,ple size & MOE is fine, but when you have regional breakdowns you tend to get some strange results because the sample sizes tend to be quite small for them, they generally tend to even out (one area might be overstated, another area could be ubnderstated)

The poll has a breakdown by people's views of abortion.

The breakdown isn't really what's interesting (at least to me), but it basically includes a poll of whether people are pro-choice or pro-life.

I even made a map...

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They're not crap, they just have a large MOE. Unless you're J.J. you should understand the difference.

17%... LOL.  I'd be laughing if we didn't have another 18 months of him.

He is truly a patriot with a 17-76 rating. ;)

Que? 

Texas is not a pro-choice state, that part of the map is certainly wrong.

The situation had been brewing for quite a while.

Plus, I'm not sure when this poll was taken, so it could've been pre-shutdown.

7/8-7/10 afterwards

What proof of that do you have? There are a few states I'm not sure about (Texas and West Virignia), but I haven't seen any polls that indicate the opposite.

It's not like 100% of Republicans are pro-life. Abortion is not the deciding factor for many people when they vote GOP (and ends up being a pro-life government).

Easy.  Knowledge of the population.  I have lived and visited in all parts of Texas with all different kinds of people.  The only place where pro-choice is supported more than pro-life is in Austin and the city centers of Dallas and Houston and the inner suburbs (not the large and growing suburbs and exurbs).

First, the Hispanics in Texas are not pro-choice in temperament.  At least 40% of them are Protestant evangelicals (meaning most are pro-life), a certain percentage more are Catholics (and a good number of those are pro-life).  I would say the white population divides in half between pro-life and pro-choice, perhaps leaning ever so slightly to the pro-life side, extremely pro-life in rural and suburban areas, though nowadays they vote (70%-30% Republican).  The black population probably leans slightly towards pro-choice, but they are not very large in influence any more.

Third, look at the religious maps of the state.  Texas is perhaps the most church-going state in the union, maybe second to North Dakota.  West Virginia is not a church-going state, so attitudes there may be different.

They are not necessarily "junk," just less accurate.  Of course, there are huge problems with looking at just one poll and there can be problems within that poll.  Jfern still doesn't get that.

I found this interesting. Governor Frank Murkowski apporval ratings.

May
27% Approve   
66% Disapprove   

June
28% Approve    
64% Disapprove   

July
31% Approve    
61% Disapprove

I guess people are gradually getting bored of the scandal, although those are still dreadful approval ratings.

As long as there not being taxed, the Governor can do ANYTHING he wants.  As we saw with the senate race last year, that state votes blindly.  At least Massachusetts has a Republican governor (as much as I disagree with his spend-and-borrow, social ultra-liberalism hidden by Kerry flip-flopping).  Of course, being from SC there's not much room to criticize other governors!

Jim Doyle: WI

43% Approve
48% Disapprove ;D

It's looking better and better for us to get Doyle out!