Talk Elections

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view
Trump - 50
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1

*Laughs so hard his gut hurts*

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Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.

this sums up this election perfectly.

those are, iirc...the "what would your neighbour vote"-guys.

This poll has 25-35 year olds breaking for Trump 51-39, and shows Trump getting 37% of Latinos. I find that very hard to believe, to say the least.

my secret fetish is Ralston being wrong

I'm conservative on polling, but I'm very very very confident that EV has already shown where NV is going. This is a hard swing and miss.

if they would at least fine a tie.....

how does this work?

strict rules which make it clear that latinos never vote?

english-only landlines?

30%+ trumpocrats?

I can safely say that this is trash!

If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.

This is just going to increase Trump's odds in Nevada and make Nate Silver's model even more of a joke! BEAUTIFUL!

Uh, sure.

Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?

Trafalgar was polling at least as early as the SC primary this year.

When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?

Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? ::)

I think Hillary wins it but probably not by much.

do terrible right-wing pollsters every go bankrupt or do people just like being lied to?

NV has had many bad poll years but this must be the worst, if ralston is even in the same universe as the final vote.

Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14

I asked for a debunk of their math. We don't need Ralston or McDonald to see the numbers from NV, which are ~70% of all that will vote there. Debunk their numbers, not the men.

Ag, SOS, state house, and nv4. I don't give him much credit for getting nv3 and the governor's elections right as those races were never competitive

The idea of Republicans narrowly winning those races wasn't inconceivable, though. Trump winning a state like NV with his numbers among Latinos in anything other than a 2014-style, low turnout environment makes absolutely no sense. Looking at the demographics and the early vote so far, it's much more likely that the polls are wrong (and they have been many times in Nevada.)

2008: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2010: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2012: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2014: NV polls do OK, Ralston gets it mostly right.
2016: Gee, I wonder who of NV polls or Ralston will get it right?

These junk polls only serve to give Trump more ammunition for his "rigged election" talk.

Wait, were these the guys that did those 10,000 respondent daily polls for the South Carolina Republican State House Caucus or whatever during the primary?

as long as people continue to post TRAFALGAR polls i will continue posting this poll they did that should pretty much prove they are the worst in the business (http://cjonline.com/news/2016-03-04/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-retaining-lead-kansas)

So what? It was a caucus poll.

Is this the worst poll of 2016?

even a poll of a caucus shouldn't be as off as this poll was.

You actually think Nevada is going to vote for Trump? lmao.

He did... He adjusted it to T+2.

Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

The constant barrage of sh**tty polls like this is one of the reasons this election year sucks so hard.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.

Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

:o   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG

I said she will probably win. Really have to adjust my thing.

So did I :o

Hopefully, this election will be Trafalgar's Waterloo.

Nice pun or play on or what have you.