Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 10:59:52 am



Title: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 10:59:52 am
http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/

Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 3
Stein 3

WOW!


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 11:00:59 am
Junk

But if they're right, LOLras is no laughing matter.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 11:01:10 am
lolras


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 11:01:22 am
BS.

Trump is likely up 2-3, but it will be close.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 11:01:56 am
How hilarious would it be if Selzer shows the same thing lol


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 11:02:08 am
I mean, obviously Loras is not a good poll, but their methodology seems sound. I'd certainly trust a live-caller, voter-list poll with close to even mix of landline and cell phone to whatever Emerson does.

Also note that Trump will be campaigning in Iowa this weekend...


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 11:02:28 am
One point movement towards Clinton since late September. They've been quite a bit to the left of most pollsters in IA. Like, 5-6 points left.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 05, 2016, 11:03:11 am
lol I can only dream it's true


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: AOC Stan on November 05, 2016, 11:03:43 am
good thing we have the DMR poll tonight at 7


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 11:04:05 am
Quinnipiac showed a tied race before Comey-gate, and Emerson is absolute trash, so I'm quite interested in this Selzer poll tonight.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 05, 2016, 11:04:51 am
This is just like a teaser for the real poll of Iowa coming tonight.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 05, 2016, 11:05:05 am
Relevant:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239884.0


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Donnie on November 05, 2016, 11:06:02 am

Can't wait. DMR is by far the best for Iowa.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 11:06:45 am
I will say that if Loras somehow is right and Selzer is off again, Iowa is a hard state to poll Trump in.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: The Other Castro on November 05, 2016, 11:13:34 am
Senate numbers seem reasonable, Grassley +16.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 11:15:09 am
They actually have favorable numbers for the incumbent Republican congresscritters, so they might actually be right. We'll see on election day.


Title: IA: Loras College: Close Race for President in Iowa
Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 05, 2016, 11:20:40 am
New Poll: Iowa President by Loras College on 2016-11-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920161103230)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/)


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Xing on November 05, 2016, 11:30:29 am
I don't see why Clinton winning by one is such an implausible result. Yes, this if LOLras, so of course this particular poll isn't to be trusted, but I really don't buy Iowa being Safe Trump.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 11:30:44 am
Clinton once again dominating the early vote:

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 05, 2016, 11:34:32 am
Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 11:47:15 am
Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.
Based on what? The same poll showed her +14 ahead in June! Also, do you really believe there is a 28(!)-point difference in favourability? I wouldn't be surprised they are doing this based on 2012 turnout numbers.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2016, 11:48:10 am
Loras makes Emerson look good.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 12:10:48 pm


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 05, 2016, 12:14:37 pm
Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 12:15:16 pm

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 12:17:45 pm

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.
Hopefully they get it right this time around.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 12:23:34 pm

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.
Hopefully they get it right this time around.

Unless I'm wrong....they had Obama +5, and final was Obama +6. Means they were perhaps the most accurate pollster in '12.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2016, 12:34:19 pm
Loras is probably the worst pollster out there.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Cosmopolitanism Will Win on November 05, 2016, 12:34:36 pm
Yeah, not buying this, but at least it means it's still close. Looking forward to Selzer.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ban my account ffs! on November 05, 2016, 03:18:08 pm
Idiots Out Wandering Around are bound to hear the Trumpet call and erroneously think it's time for supper.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Clamdick McClaw on November 05, 2016, 04:46:51 pm
Loras is probably the worst pollster out there.

()



Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2016, 05:54:19 pm
I was tempted to make my final prediction a few minutes ago... I am now waiting for the Selzer poll of Iowa.   


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 06:47:24 pm
Isn't this basically just as D-leaning trash as the CO/MI/PA ones are R-leaning trash?