Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 12:47:04 pm



Title: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 12:47:04 pm
Oct. 25-31 results:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArTE5ST1ZtUE1kdjg/view

Quote
Updated November 1, 2016 9am PST

As we approach November 8th, SurveyMonkey will be releasing rolling 7-day polling averages on the presidential race in all 50 states (plus the District of Columbia). We will be releasing our rolling state-level polls daily at 9am Pacific, so bookmark this page for updates.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Ebsy on November 01, 2016, 12:47:56 pm
Noooooooooo.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 12:48:30 pm
The Junkening has begun!


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 12:49:39 pm
Contrary to the map, the Google file contains Johnson/Stein/McMullin data !


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: DavidB. on November 01, 2016, 12:52:31 pm
Haha, those South Carolina numbers. #BattlegroundSC


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 12:52:38 pm
This'll make good lining for my birdcage, at least.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Crumpets on November 01, 2016, 12:53:27 pm
I mean it's not a terrible map...

Michigan is Safe D, though.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: KingSweden on November 01, 2016, 12:54:46 pm
Should these be added to the database?

No, nor should they be on 538 (yet are)


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 12:55:29 pm
The press release also says they have rolling Senate and Gov. results, but I cannot find the results pages for this ...


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: DavidB. on November 01, 2016, 12:55:30 pm
Same for Wisconsin.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 12:56:13 pm
Should these be added to the database?

If you want to add 400 polls to the database over the next week, sure ... :P


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Vern on November 01, 2016, 12:56:56 pm
Overall they aren't too bad of numbers


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: DavidB. on November 01, 2016, 12:58:04 pm
Should these be added to the database?
If you want to add 400 polls to the database over the next week, sure ... :P
Are these all polls though? Doesn't "rolling average" mean that today's polls are weighted in in tomorrow's model?


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: the506 on November 01, 2016, 12:59:17 pm
Most of these numbers almost seem reasonable.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Wherever you want to go, you can't go there! on November 01, 2016, 12:59:23 pm
It's a win.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: afleitch on November 01, 2016, 01:00:22 pm
The demographic drill downs are fun :)


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Wherever you want to go, you can't go there! on November 01, 2016, 01:10:05 pm
The demographic drill downs are fun :)

I'm lazy. What's going on down there?


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement on November 01, 2016, 01:12:29 pm
LOL @ all those double-digit Johnson numbers.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 01:19:38 pm
LOL @ all those double-digit Johnson numbers.

Just add them to Trump's numbers :P


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 01, 2016, 01:44:00 pm
The demographic drill downs are fun :)

I'm lazy. What's going on down there?

men and whites be´ng garbage, as usual


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2016, 02:23:37 pm
The third party numbers are interesting but probably exaggerated.

Top 3 Johnson states are:

1. New Mexico 17%
2. South Dakota 16%
3. Alaska 13%

Top 3 Stein states are:

1. Vermont 8%
2. Hawaii & Rhode Island tied at 7%

McMullin is in third place in Utah at 26% and in fourth place in Idaho at 7%. He's at 0% everywhere else but I'm not sure if he was actually included in any of the other polls.

Stein is only ahead on Johnson in DC but they are tied in a few states (Hawaii, New York, Rhode Island and West Virginia).


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Wherever you want to go, you can't go there! on November 02, 2016, 03:46:08 pm
Friewall plus Florida and NC holding.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 02, 2016, 06:02:41 pm
Oct. 26 - Nov. 1 results:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArOWEtc1BTbzhOT2s/view

Nevada: 43-42 Trump
Florida: 47-44 Clinton
Iowa: 45-39 Trump
Colorado: 43-40 Clinton
Arizona: 43-42 Trump
North Carolina: 49-42 Clinton
Ohio: 45-42 Trump
Pennsylvania: 48-42 Clinton
Wisconsin: 44-42 Clinton

other interesting results:
georgia 45-44 trump
mississippi 47-41 trump
new hampshire 49-35 clinton
south carolina 45-44 trump
utah 34-30-26 t/c/m
virginia 49-39 clinton


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: adrac on November 02, 2016, 06:12:54 pm
Not terrible, honestly.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 02, 2016, 06:30:04 pm
Yuuuuuge!


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: elcorazon on November 03, 2016, 02:27:05 pm
Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 results:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArNzhDcllNSURkTmM/view

Nevada: 44-43 Trump (no change)
Florida: 47-44 Clinton (no change)
Iowa: 47-37 Trump (R+4)
Colorado: 44-40 Clinton (D+1)
Arizona: 43-43 TIE (D+1)
North Carolina: 49-41 Clinton (D+1)
Ohio: 46-41 Trump (R+2)
Pennsylvania: 47-42 Clinton (R+1)
Wisconsin: 44-42 Clinton (no change)
good numbers if true


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 03, 2016, 05:26:39 pm
made a map of the gender gap in the last batch of results

()


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 03, 2016, 05:33:12 pm
Is Clinton winning WV women at this rate?


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 03, 2016, 06:00:16 pm

nah. down 8 with women, down 56 with men


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 03, 2016, 06:50:54 pm
Tracker polls are generally low quality, but 50 state tracker polls are worthless.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 03, 2016, 08:17:41 pm
!!! Does she even hit 20 with men? Wow...


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2016, 12:22:05 am

Racist WV Hicks are racist. News at 11.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 03:43:31 am
SurveyMonkey's latest 50-state results aren't actually that crazy, given the other polls we've seen in recent days:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArMDZYamh1eDNKVEE/view

C/T/J/S/M = Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein/McMullin

SurveyMonkey Election Tracking                     
conducted October 28 - November 3, 2016                     
Among likely voters                     
state          C      T         J      S      M    None   Unweighted n
Alabama   36%   52%   6%   2%   0%   3%   722
Alaska   35%   46%   11%   5%   0%   3%   334
Arizona   44%   43%   8%   3%   0%   2%   1748
Arkansas   34%   55%   6%   3%   0%   2%   696
California   56%   29%   7%   5%   0%   3%   2528
Colorado   44%   40%   10%   3%   0%   2%   1927
Connecticut   52%   38%   6%   3%   0%   2%   925
D.C.   85%   5%   3%   5%   0%   1%   324
Delaware   50%   36%   8%   2%   0%   3%   405
Florida   47%   45%   4%   2%   0%   2%   3356
Georgia   44%   46%   6%   0%   0%   4%   2872
Hawaii   52%   29%   8%   7%   0%   4%   435
Idaho   30%   49%   6%   3%   10%   1%   498
Illinois   52%   37%   6%   3%   0%   2%   1120
Indiana   35%   52%   9%   0%   0%   3%   923
Iowa   37%   47%   10%   3%   0%   4%   1469
Kansas   36%   49%   10%   4%   0%   2%   1162
Kentucky   35%   55%   6%   3%   0%   2%   843
Louisiana   37%   52%   5%   2%   0%   3%   646
Maine   48%   39%   6%   4%   0%   2%   590
Maryland   62%   27%   6%   4%   0%   1%   851
Massachusetts   56%   29%   8%   3%   0%   4%   1004
Michigan   44%   43%   9%   3%   0%   2%   2362
Minnesota   47%   37%   9%   3%   0%   4%   1055
Mississippi   40%   49%   5%   3%   0%   3%   673
Missouri   39%   49%   8%   3%   0%   2%   879
Montana   34%   53%   9%   2%   0%   2%   403
Nebraska   35%   51%   8%   2%   0%   4%   707
Nevada   43%   44%   9%   0%   0%   4%   1016
New Hampshire   47%   37%   11%   3%   0%   3%   672
New Jersey   55%   37%   3%   3%   0%   2%   943
New Mexico   41%   36%   17%   4%   0%   3%   794
New York   57%   32%   5%   4%   0%   2%   1949
North Carolina   48%   42%   7%   0%   0%   3%   2292
North Dakota   29%   56%   11%   2%   0%   1%   276
Ohio   41%   46%   8%   2%   0%   2%   2004
Oklahoma   32%   56%   10%   0%   0%   2%   905
Oregon   51%   36%   7%   4%   0%   3%   1150
Pennsylvania   46%   43%   6%   2%   0%   2%   2454
Rhode Island   49%   38%   6%   4%   0%   3%   392
South Carolina   43%   47%   5%   2%   0%   3%   1583
South Dakota   31%   52%   15%   0%   0%   3%   393
Tennessee   41%   49%   5%   3%   0%   2%   1063
Texas   42%   47%   6%   2%   0%   3%   2322
Utah   30%   33%   7%   2%   26%   2%   1327
Vermont   57%   24%   10%   7%   0%   2%   449
Virginia   48%   40%   7%   2%   0%   2%   2073
Washington   53%   34%   7%   5%   0%   2%   944
West Virginia   27%   57%   7%   3%   0%   6%   386
Wisconsin   45%   43%   7%   3%   0%   3%   1568
Wyoming   21%   61%   9%   5%   0%   4%   200


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 06, 2016, 05:53:32 am
SC to the left of Ohio? Whee...


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 07:49:25 am
lol, third party support is obviously too high in these but it would be amazing to see Trump come in third or fourth place in DC.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey 50 state tracker (7-day rolling average) thread
Post by: Wherever you want to go, you can't go there! on November 06, 2016, 07:53:51 am
http://www.270towin.com/maps/D3x1k

This map would be awesome both for the sore winnerness and the lolz.