Talk Elections

47% Trump
35% Clinton

http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-results-minnesota-8th-congressional-district-race-rick-nolan-stewart-mills/4299294

Obama won this district by 6% in 2012.

No wonder Minnesota is a toss up on 538..Damn...This state hasn't want republican in 3 decades.

Ah ha, you've seen the other CD polls? I'm not the least bit concerned about MN.

Junk. No way Nolan loses now after romping in 2014. SUSA is generally a good pollster but Minnesota is one state they cannot poll.

I don't think that MN will ever vote for Trump, but there has been some crazy polling out of that state recently.

It seems the cities and suburbs are voting strongly for Hillary, while the rural areas are strongly trending to Trump.

If you believe this poll then you believe the proportion of Democrats in MN-8 dropped from 34% in 2014 to 27% in 2016 while Republican numbers held steady at 29%.

What a joke.  Tender, you need to stop wasting time sifting through garbage like this.

so what?
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=625b934d-8781-4fe7-a4ff-e9e7141b5a4f

even adjust the Poll as your demand (DEM 34 IND 34 REP 29 )

1. TRUMP: DEM(34%)x6% + REP(29%)x83% + Ind(34%)x49% = 42.77%
2. Hillary: DEM(34%)x86% + REP(29%)x5% + Ind(34%)x25% = 39.19%

TRUMP is still winning +3.58% in MN-8 :p

lol no

this is what a junk poll looks like folks.

You need to keep adjusting.  2016 cannot be compared to 2014.  But it can be compared more accurately to 2012.

This is the exact type of district you'd expect to swing toward Trump so I'm not sure why it's so hard to believe that he's up/competitive there.

Definitely seems like the kind of district that should trend Republican based on its demographics, but hard to believe it would swing that hard.

Minnesota's 8th congressional district
Distribution  63% Rural, 37% Urban
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota%27s_8th_congressional_district

Clinton will win here.

I can see Trump winning this district. Clinton will make up for it by doing better in the twin cities suburbs.

I'm not quite sure why, but Congressional polling is generally quite poor.  

This is from an article on the U.S House race part of the poll:

Two years ago at about this same stage, our poll showed Mills with an eight-point margin. Three weeks later in lost to Nolan by 1.4%. Schier says that was likely the result of the Democratic Party having a far superior get-out-the-vote operation. "I think the lead in the polls evaporated two years ago because the Democrats had a ground game that far outstripped the Republican ground game in that district," Schier says.

When the polls turn out to be wrong, a superior get-out-the-vote operation is a standard excuse of the pollster.

I think that a 9.4% difference between a late poll and the actual result being explained by a superior get-out-the-vote effort is ridiculous.

http://kstp.com/politics/stewart-mills-rick-nolan-8th-congressional-race-kstp-survey-usa-poll/4299301/

I'm not claiming this poll is wrong just providing evidence of how poor polling by Congressional District whether for the House race or the Presidential race frequently is.

Trump will win MN at this rate.

Not with MN-2 and MN-3 swinging as hard or harder in the opposite direction, I don't think.

SurveyUSA isnt  good at polling smaller races, one just has to look at Kentucky.

I know you're grasping right now, or you're a troll... either way, no.

Great new poll out of Minnesota! Media can't hide the fact we started a movement in Minnesota 8! #MAGA

LOLno. Even if you believe this there were two polls from MN-2 and MN-3 from the sane pollster earlier showing Trump down huge.
http://kstp.com/news/surveyusa-poll-results-3rd-congressional-district-race/4293997
http://kstp.com/news/survey-usa-poll-results-2nd-congressional-race-jason-lewis-angie-craig/4293947

With these numbers Trump is definitely not winning Minnesota.

If Trump is not winning OH, Trump is not winning MI. If Trump is not winning MI, Trump is not winning WI. If Trump is not winning WI, Trump is not winning MN.

He's not even at the first step of this.

Outperforming Romney by 17 in MN-8 while underperforming Romney by 12 in MN-3 and underperofrming Romney by 8 in MN-2 suggests Trump will overall roughly match (-1) Romney's performance (assuming that suburban and rural districts are roughly equitable). Losing Minnesota by 9 certainly does not help Trump's cause, but it also suggests that most of these national leads showing Clinton up double digits are bogus.

This same poll has Nolan losing by 8 in 2014.

Polling suggests that Clinton has narrow lead outside of the Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay media markets.

MN is an inelastic D state. This has already been discussed at length in the forum before. MN does not move at a 1:1 ratio with the rest of the nation in either direction, so your extrapolation is not very useful.

Be that as it may, this election is testing old rules.

District polling is dodgy and SUSA in Minnesota is even worse. Come on people, don't be idiots now.

lolno

As a Minnesota resident, I think I can safely say this is still a solid Clinton state.

Trump will win and by good margins in CD 6, 7 and 8 but Clinton probably wins the remaining five districts with Minneapolis and St. Paul providing more than enough votes.

I'd say MN winds up Clinton 50, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 1.

Junk, Minnesota is not turning red this time. Trump is a bad fit for this state.

I don't believe this poll.

I do think Trump will outperform recent Republicans in MN-08, and could definitely win the district but +12?  I'll have to see it on Election Day to believe it.

this. Obviously tender is getting his jollies, though.

Yeah.  It's infuriating.  Tender has done more to ruin my opinion of Austria than any other single person.  He exemplifies the casually racist/misogynistic/homophobic attitude that most Austrians seem to have while claiming moral and ethical superiority over everybody else.

It's no wonder the Germans look down on them the same we we look down on the deep south.

As for the poll:  Mills was up 8 at this point in 2014 according to SUSA and he lost the election.  Now he's up by 4.

The district will swing and trend towards Trump but will elect the same DFLers as they always do otherwise.  Mostly because Trump has protectionist trade policy proposals at a time when the commodity crash and unfair practices by China (which both candidates have condemned) is leaving their taconite plants shuttered.  If the GOP nominates Cruz or Ryan or some other smarmy snobjob in 2020, look for that trend to dry up.

Even so, the Iron Range and Duluth won't be voting for Trump or Mills.  Everyone wants to think the Iron Range is driving this swing.  It is not.

The Republican trend is occurring in the new areas of District 8 that are adjacent to Tom Emmer's 6th district and much closer to where Stuey Mills (with his fancy hair and fancy clothes and fancy house and fancy boat and fancy job and fancy ideas about free markets) lives.

My hope is that when redistricting happens and MN loses a seat, they rip up the 7th. Give the 8th the North of the state, 1st the South, 6th the middle, and the rest in the metro area.

The recent SUSA polling seems to suggest significant movement in Minnesota, even taking into account the inherent noisiness of congressional level polling. It is just that the R trend of the rural areas is counteracted by the D trend of the cities.

A trip down memory lane...


"Most interesting states", LMAO!

I'll also note the math above excludes also likely D trends in MN 4, 5 and 6.

It assumes that they will be counteracted by the likely R trends in MN 1 and 7.

So D trends in 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 will be countered by R trends in 1, 7, and 8.  You'd better hope for unprecedented R trends in declining outstate MN then!

Judging by the ground game (the GOP has no money and is barely scraping by while the DFL is loaded and well staffed)...that wont be easy.

Considering I took an arithmetic average of one R-trending district and two D-trending districts, I think that is a fair assumption.

As for MN-1, Rochester and Mankato are textbook examples of cities where Trump will fall through the floor.

Also same pollster had Nolan winning by 2 in 2012, won by 9.

Would not be surprised if Trump carries this district but he is not carrying it by 12 points.

People read the above. I am right and you are wrong.

This is true of course. I'm just noting even if the poll is correct people are making some ridiculous assumptions.

This is true of course. I'm just noting even if the poll is correct people are making some ridiculous assumptions.

This is true of course. I'm just noting even if the poll is correct people are making some ridiculous assumptions.

Out of curiosity since I'm unfamiliar with district trends, what is the importance of this particular one?

Assuming the poll is reasonably accurate, it shows a huge trend to the Trump Pub in a more rural working class white CD. If that represents a long term change, and the Pubs get back their lost voters in the Twin Cities wealth belt, then suddenly MN is a toss up state down the road. Don't hold your breath, but that is why the poll attracted a lot of interest I suspect.

Keep dreaming.  Ths explanation only serves to fill pipes with dreams and dismisses the fact that SUSA's poll in this district has been wildly off for the past two elections. 

Trump will do better in the district because of his trade proposals.  But even if you look at 2014 you'll find Al Franken did very well in the heart of the 8th with 2:1 margins in Duluth and the Iron Range against his GOP opponent in a strong GOP year.

That was at the same time that SUSA polled Republican Mills way ahead of Nolan who went on to win the race.  SUSA did the same thing in 2012 showing Nolan way behind only to see him win.

At the same time... the DFL trend in the Twin Cities has been bigger and longer...having started already back in 2004.  Without reciprocating GOP trends elsewhere the state GOP has no statewide offices, 3/8 congressional districts, and a small majority in the state house which they could easily lose on Nov 8th.  Especially since the MNGOP has no money to spend on these races while their DFL opponents get plenty.

Demographic trends do not favor GOP competitiveness in the future.  The young generation is more diverse and overwhelmingly votes DFL... the same was not true when Gen X was the young generation and we had 20 years with no DFL governor and a GOP led state house and a Republican senator and Republican sec of state.

Trump is not your regular Pub candidate.

I've been saying this for a year now - Trump will get a lot of traditionally Dem votes.
This is not reflected in public polls well, because pollsters have bad Pub/Dem demographics filters.

Trump's level of support is better shown in polls on a district level.