Title: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: heatcharger on October 23, 2016, 03:44:34 PM Link. (http://soonerpoll.com/oklahoman-trump-solidifies-lead-in-oklahoma-poll-shows/?utm_content=buffer9d4e9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
Trump 60% Clinton 30% Johnson 4% Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 23, 2016, 03:47:10 PM #TrumpUnder66
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Holmes on October 23, 2016, 03:49:34 PM Nearly two thirds of Oklahomans have been watching Trump's campaign over the past three weeks and have said "yup, that's my guy."
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 23, 2016, 03:53:33 PM THANKS OKLAHOMA!!! #MAGA
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Dr. Arch on October 23, 2016, 03:55:56 PM Nearly two thirds of Oklahomans have been watching Trump's campaign over the past three weeks and have said "yup, that's my guy." What a terrifying thought. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Speed of Sound on October 23, 2016, 03:56:14 PM This is why Texas makes fun of Oklahoma.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 04:01:16 PM a reminder: SoonerPoll is not that good. They have wild variations - Trump was only up 15 or so in their last poll.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 23, 2016, 04:01:54 PM Fascinating- Clinton lagging Obama 2012 #'s in Oklahoma and Trump at 60. Texas really is sui generis this year. Oklahoma and West Virginia are the quintessential "deplorable" states. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: psychprofessor on October 23, 2016, 04:02:02 PM I think this poll came in last place at 538 lol
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Rand on October 23, 2016, 04:05:49 PM Yup. Doesn't surprise me.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 23, 2016, 04:09:17 PM I think this poll came in last place at 538 lol No, 538 has them rated B. But that's based on only 16 polls. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 23, 2016, 04:10:53 PM Clinton is not going to do worse than Obama in Oklahoma.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: LimoLiberal on October 23, 2016, 04:13:08 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Dr. Arch on October 23, 2016, 04:14:07 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma. lol, what the heck Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on October 23, 2016, 04:14:57 PM I bet North Texas is pretty much treating Trump like any other Republican, but that his struggles are really from the Border region, and the SA, Austin, and Houston metro areas.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Xing on October 23, 2016, 04:17:41 PM Not surprising. A pile of manure with an (R) next to its name would probably get 60% in Oklahoma.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 23, 2016, 04:19:13 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma. Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that. This is a flaw in the model. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Figueira on October 23, 2016, 04:23:53 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma. Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that. This is a flaw in the model. Well in Oklahoma, Trump was already at over 99% so it's not like this poll could move it that far. The idea is that if Trump is further ahead than expected in Oklahoma, he's also more likely to win Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I agree that it's probably a flaw in the model though, due to the overall lack of polling in Oklahoma. This practically cancelled out the Washington Post national poll that came out today, which is silly. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 23, 2016, 04:25:10 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma. Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that. This is a flaw in the model. But yeah, this polls got too much weight in Oklahoma. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 04:30:03 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma. Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that. This is a flaw in the model. Well in Oklahoma, Trump was already at over 99% so it's not like this poll could move it that far. The idea is that if Trump is further ahead than expected in Oklahoma, he's also more likely to win Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I agree that it's probably a flaw in the model though, due to the overall lack of polling in Oklahoma. This practically cancelled out the Washington Post national poll that came out today, which is silly. Oklahoma has practically zero to do with those other states culturally or socially Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: NOVA Green on October 23, 2016, 04:34:50 PM I bet North Texas is pretty much treating Trump like any other Republican, but that his struggles are really from the Border region, and the SA, Austin, and Houston metro areas. You might be right on that, assuming by NorthTex you are talking about the rural areas around the Red River. I would also add WestTex to an area that could see some wild swings in 2016. As I have mentioned previously, this is one of the few parts of the country that swung towards Obama in 2012, and there is an extremely large Latino population in what has traditionally been one of the most Republican parts of Texas. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Figueira on October 23, 2016, 04:47:29 PM This affected 538's national model by 1.3 points. A poll from Oklahoma. Which is ludicrous, because it moved the Oklahoma odds by much less than that. This is a flaw in the model. Well in Oklahoma, Trump was already at over 99% so it's not like this poll could move it that far. The idea is that if Trump is further ahead than expected in Oklahoma, he's also more likely to win Ohio and North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I agree that it's probably a flaw in the model though, due to the overall lack of polling in Oklahoma. This practically cancelled out the Washington Post national poll that came out today, which is silly. Oklahoma has practically zero to do with those other states culturally or socially True, but there's no reason to think he would be surging in Oklahoma and nowhere else. The problem, of course, is that with so few polls out of the state, it's less likely to be a surge than statistical noise. If there were like 3 polls a week out of Oklahoma showing Trump up 18 and the he suddenly surged to 30, that might be more significant. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 04:48:38 PM Personal experience - I see fewer Trump signs than I do Johnson signs, much less Clinton signs, in Tulsa, one of the most conservative cities in the country. There isn't much enthusiasm for Trump here.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: NOVA Green on October 23, 2016, 04:57:31 PM Personal experience - I see fewer Trump signs than I do Johnson signs, much less Clinton signs, in Tulsa, one of the most conservative cities in the country. There isn't much enthusiasm for Trump here. "Living on Tulsa Time" :) Tulsa is now only 58% Anglo with a large and rapidly growing Latino population.... I also have a pet theory about the "Oil Patch" that may or may not be shown on election night in key energy sector counties in the country, where Trump's plan to "Seize Iraqi Oil" if implemented would cause a huge collapse in the domestic oil sector that is already getting killed by the low price of crude, that has led to major layoffs over the past year or so. Also, Tulsa Metro does have a relatively large and educated workforce, even beyond the Energy Sector, and although many of these workers are "Conservative" they don't necessarily like what they are hearing from the current party nominee. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: NOVA Green on October 23, 2016, 05:35:50 PM Personal experience - I see fewer Trump signs than I do Johnson signs, much less Clinton signs, in Tulsa, one of the most conservative cities in the country. There isn't much enthusiasm for Trump here. "Living on Tulsa Time" :) Tulsa is now only 58% Anglo with a large and rapidly growing Latino population.... I also have a pet theory about the "Oil Patch" that may or may not be shown on election night in key energy sector counties in the country, where Trump's plan to "Seize Iraqi Oil" if implemented would cause a huge collapse in the domestic oil sector that is already getting killed by the low price of crude, that has led to major layoffs over the past year or so. Also, Tulsa Metro does have a relatively large and educated workforce, even beyond the Energy Sector, and although many of these workers are "Conservative" they don't necessarily like what they are hearing from the current party nominee. I think oil and gas is very split this year. Those in management and technical desk jobs in Houston (to a lesser degree in OKC, Tulsa and Alaska) are swinging hard away from Trump, while the roughnecks and field engineers who live and vote in the oilfields actually like him even more than a generic R. I think ExtremeRepublican is right that Trump will be mostly fine in DFW and great in the Panhandle and rural Texas generally, but the bottom will fall out for him in Houston and OKC itself. These are all really good points, although I want to add a further point, where I might differ slightly. Many of the roughnecks out in the offshore rigs of the Gulf Coast are Black and Latinos, not to mention the sprawling oil refinery in Baytown outside of Houston, as well as the "Cancer corridor" of oil refineries that runs down from Baton Rouge down the Mississippi to a little North of New Orleans. I agree that many Anglo roughnecks might swing a bit towards Trump, and he will likely do quite well among property owners in places like Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Wyoming that frequently have both cattle and some oil pumps on their land and benefit from dual tax breaks in many of these states as a result. One item not yet discussed are all of the contractors/subcontractors and vendors that are downstream suppliers to the Petro Industry. For example, the massive layoffs in the energy sector shortly before I left Houston a year ago, were not just confined to management/administrative jobs in places like the new Exxon-Mobile Corp HQ in the Woodlands, but also many companies that provided services and goods from designing and manufacturing oil field hardware, trucking companies supporting the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, not to mention a ton of small business owners directly impacted by the collapse of the domestic American Petroleum sector. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eagle_Ford_Group Although, I am not that familiar with the history of the Energy Sector in OK, Tulsa is a city with is rated one of the top 10 livable cities in the US, with a rapidly growing and diversifying economy, and personally I remotely supported a major Tech sector corp account when I was back in Houston. As others have noted, it is unlikely that Trump will outperform McCain and Romney margins in the state at large, but I would not be surprised to see OKC and Tulsa lurch Democratic, while rural counties maintain or slightly underperform Romney 2012 numbers. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: RI on October 23, 2016, 05:37:17 PM Clinton is not going to do worse than Obama in Oklahoma. Given that Johnson's on the ballot this time, I don't think that's a safe assumption. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 23, 2016, 05:51:16 PM Clinton is not going to do worse than Obama in Oklahoma. Given that Johnson's on the ballot this time, I don't think that's a safe assumption. Oh, I meant based on the margin. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: / on October 23, 2016, 05:53:23 PM Assuming uniform swing, this suggests a Clinton +8 nationwide lead.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2016, 07:14:25 PM This poll essentially confirms that Mama and Papa Bushie are both still voting for Trump.
Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Figueira on October 23, 2016, 07:35:28 PM Assuming uniform swing, this suggests a Clinton +8 nationwide lead. So what's really going on is that the previous polls in Oklahoma showed an unusually close race. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: HAnnA MArin County on October 24, 2016, 03:42:00 AM One would think that all the Jesus voters in Jokelahoma would be turned off by Trump's nastiness, but as long as he has an R after his name, that's okay because Hitlery gonna take our guns and Bibles away and that's worse than Trump saying un-Christianlike things. Oh and Killary's also gonna kill our babies, force us into gay marriages, and make us worship under Sharia Law. (I've heard Seriously-like minded nuts say this here in Missouri, so I can only imagine that it's worse in Oklahoma.)
#DeplorableOklahoma Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Dutch Conservative on October 24, 2016, 04:20:16 AM One would think that all the Jesus voters in Jokelahoma would be turned off by Trump's nastiness, but as long as he has an R after his name, that's okay because Hitlery gonna take our guns and Bibles away and that's worse than Trump saying un-Christianlike things. Oh and Killary's also gonna kill our babies, force us into gay marriages, and make us worship under Sharia Law. (I've heard Seriously-like minded nuts say this here in Missouri, so I can only imagine that it's worse in Oklahoma.) #DeplorableOklahoma Why so much hate...:( Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: Badger on October 24, 2016, 09:32:22 PM Nearly two thirds of Oklahomans have been watching Trump's campaign over the past three weeks and have said "yup, that's my guy." What a terrifying thought. Title: Re: OK-Sooner Poll: Trump +30 Post by: IceSpear on October 24, 2016, 09:33:36 PM Good. If Hillary was within 20 points in Oklahoma, we'd know there was something deeply wrong with her.
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