Talk Elections

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

Likely Voters:

Clinton: 50
Trump: 38
Johnson: 5
Stein: 2


Women: 55 - 35
College educated white women: 62 - 30
Men: 44 - 41


Sample of 874 likely voters, October 20 - 22nd

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Update (Nov2 - 5): Clinton+4 (4-way)

Omg

I don't think she is up by this much, but her hitting 50 in the four way is devastating for Trump. 

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This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Wow, Trump only +4 among whites?

Great poll!

It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

Like in 2008, TIPP will probably herd to the correct margin at the end.

Please, let this be true.

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WaPo aligns with NBC, Bloomberg and CBS. TIPP aligns with Rasmussen and the L.A Times tracker. Who doesn't know what their doing?

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker

I dont think its a daily tracker though. Its a weekly tracker like SurveyMonkey and YouGov.

From the article:

_{This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.}

Is this comparable to last week's Clinton +4 poll or is the methodology different?

Oh lord, why?

Okies, well I'll just update the title as new polls come out then.

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

On the 538 swingy with white college split, Clinton flips NC, GA , AZ and NE2 with a 49.7-38.7 vote share. With the white gender split those states flip as does IN, SC, MO, MT, MS with a 51.2-37.2 vote share.

And this is with generous non white subsamples in the poll.

Other numbers:

2-way race: Clinton 53, Trump 41
Trump's handling of sexual assault: 24/69 disapprove
Clinton's private email server: 35/59 disapprove
Who won the 3rd debate: 52/29 Clinton
The vote is rigged: 39/59 disapprove
Trump's refusal to concede if he loses: 29/65 disapprove

They had one in 2012 and were the most accurate pollster :)

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...

A tracking poll for the rest of us.

1) TIPP is a red flag for me because they don't share their methodology in detail.
2) Comparing 2008 and 2012 is vastly different because cell phone use has skyrocketed by 2012.
3) Also, if Trump was up 2 nationally, he'd be doing better in swing state polls.

I've grown extremely skeptical of tracking polls this cycle, but it's true ABC/WaPo was quite accurate with it in 2012. It appears they cut out some of their normal questions to save money, which makes sense.

I wonder how 538 and friends will weight this considering it's an A+ polling outfit.

What a thing of beauty. We need to see more polls though!

And oh. Didn't this poll show tightning to +4 a while back?

Mmmmmm...can't wait to see big headlines like  "MADAME PRESIDENT", "HILLARYSLIDE", "IT'S HER", "TRUMPED!", and "SHATTERED!" on November 9th.

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 83%
Clinton 8%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 45%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

Trump in third place with blacks:
Clinton 82%
Stein 5%
Trump 3%
Johnson 2%

Overall crosstabs:
men: Clinton +3
women: Clinton +20
whites: Trump +4
blacks: Clinton +77 (over Stein)
Hispanics: Clinton +38
college grads: Clinton +25
non-college grads: Clinton +3
white college grads: Clinton +16
white non-college grads: Trump +19

Keep in mind in this poll Trump id improving Romney's score with Hospanics, that is obviously not going to happen :)

OTOH, Trump will probably win whites by more than 4.

Plugging this into 538's calculator, this could be enough to pick up GA, AZ, IN, MO, TX, and SC. AK and MS are also close.

Sorry, Trump, but it is over :(

Another detail to note: Johnson and Stein numbers are pretty stable, with this being the 3rd poll in a row from ABC/WaPo showing Johnson at 5%, and Stein's numbers wavering around 1-2%.

So, of those 5% of undecideds, how many are going to the McMuffin? If 1 or 2% are. That makes 3% that are truly undecided and if a lot of them stay home, I think things can be pretty stable unless they can prove that Clinton truly stole/bought/rigged things or does or find Trump shouting n-this and n-that on tape...or that one of them has been truly connected to organized crime.

oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

If Clinton is truly winning by double digits and Republican enthusiasm continues to drop as it did in this poll, the House really could be in play.

Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

I was focusing on their fantasy 25% of Hispanics for Trump, but yes also enthusiasm.

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121104.html) and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.

Nate Silver compared the blue, red and swing states from 2012 and said Clinton was doing about 2 points better in the swing states, even in the blue states and NINE points better in the red states than 2012

Texas is the reason why Clinton's national leads seem inflated - she's pretty close there even as other swing states aren't budging as far.

The last 3 polls that are graded as "A+" by Nate Silver

ABC/WaPo +12 Clinton
Selzer +9 Clinton
Monmouth +12 Clinton

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

We were talking about the national vote. You said "we can all agree he won't be losing by 12", I responded how he could be, you said "we aren't talking about national vote!" It's becoming pretty clear you aren't the sort worth responding to.

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

"only down 3 points in Florida" is literally devastating for Republicans. Obama didn't even win Florida by 3 points in 2008.

Obama's current approval Gallup approval rating is at 57%. Better than Reagan at this point in time, on par with Clinton and Eisenhower. So most Americans disagree with you!

gotta stay positive somehow :)

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.

Welfare at the highest rate than ever before
Poverty at the highest rate than ever before
America has gotten weaker
Putin is a better leader
Middle Class is declining
No one respects our police and troops
Obama created ISIS
Illegals have increased
Unemployment is at 42% like Trump says
America is more divided than ever
More refugees than ever before
Benghazi

and you still think America is better now?! Shame on you!

Even if this were true( and it is not.....), Trump is losing college educated whites and he needs to do better with white voters then Romney (59%) did in 2012 to have a shot at winning.

I'm gay and i don't care about that... it should be left up to the states. Unemployment is at a "low" because people left the labor force if you know much about economics.

I don't care if you don't care about it, but I'm gay as well and, and I do because I like the idea of being considered an equal human being in the eyes of the law. Whether or not you care about that does not erase the achievement.

Okay on the unemployment, and ignoring everything else does not make the points disappear. You said he had done nothing, and I objectively showed you that he has. Concede the point, and stop trying to weasel out of it.

Another tracker? Crap!

Labor force participation is low because the people who are leaving the workforce are - you guessed it - old people retiring. We have more old people than ever.

I'm believing the Clinton double digit leads now because the Hill put out an article quoting Conway saying Trump wants another debate. No candidate who is winning the election would ask for another debate, especially after getting humiliated in the first three

Virginia,
I think you should allow the honor of updating this thread, to our Atlas member, Seriously.
Seriously would look forward to seeing, and being a part-of, such great numbers everyday until Nov 8th.
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Beautiful poll!

Am I reading it wrong, or is she winning MEN?!

Motion seconded, although Seriously will probably do nothing but spin it as a win for Trump by proving that she's rigging the polls and buying off the pollsters to produce these numbers.

DOMINATING
OO
M  M
I     I
N     N
A       A
T         T
I            I
N             N
G               G

Bryan is supporting Jill Stein. Atleast Clinton's corrupt supporters shouldn't be using Bryan's signature chant!

He's supporting that nut and her terrorist apologist running mate?

Geez oh man.

The most interesting demographic crosstab is this one:

Non-college white women: Trump +9

This is where I thought the collapse in Trump's numbers would occur after the first debate and his general maltreatment of women. He was winning this demo by a lot more before the first debate

I'm not surprised.
When your typical "Non-college white woman" trump supporter resembles/does this ...

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Are you the same self-hating loon who was posting as 'voter1993'? Also, your english is so bad that are you sure Drumpf won't be looking at you for deportation as well? Better watch out for the deportation squads.

This helps to partially explain what we are seeing in Texas, and likely to some extent Arizona as well, even without discussing the surge in Latino enthusiasm and motivation as we roll towards a two week election day countdown.

+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.

Because she's not up 3-5 in MI, and if internals are to believed, Trump is getting slaughtered in most Democratic-leaning swing states. It's absolutely plausible.

MRG found her at 5% in Michigan, and that doesn't answer the issue of North Carolina and Florida. If she is up by 12%, she's going to not only be leading in both of those by double digits but she should also be leading in Ohio and Iowa firmly. Every other poll we've got recently says she's not in any of these cases. As for internals, give me a break.

a) NEVER believe any polling of MI... regardless of what it says.

b) this is not going to be a universal swing election, so no, there's no way of saying xx should be xx if this is the result.

You're welcome to think otherwise, but I don't think she's up 12, but close to it.

Even if we completely ignore MI, 3-5% in Florida and North Carolina is completely inconsistent with being up 12 nationally. It is, however, compatible with the ARG +7 and Morning Consult +6 we got recently. As for comparing it to other stuff, the polls we're getting from swing states don't show her being up 12, and the most recent Illinois and New York polls show Trump doing about average for a Republican in the former and a bit better in the case of the latter. So basically, there is no basis for a +12 HRC margin right now. None of the polls are showing where these mythical votes are coming from.  

No one really knows how these play out.

I agree that it's not likely a 12 point lead, but there are a weird number of shifts that could take place among groups and states that could lead to this, but we're looking at closer to 8-10%.

There's no mixture of states one can make to get even a +10 result with Trump doing average in New York and Illinois, being ahead in Ohio, and having close races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is also ignoring all the other recent polls which have the race far different from what is being portrayed from this tracker.  

There is. But that's fine.

Then please enlighten me as to where these mythical votes are, because just saying "there is" is not a valid argument. There is no way Clinton can be up +12 when the Republican is doing average in Democratic strongholds like New York, Illinois and California (Last poll I saw for there) and have close races in the Swing states. The facts, and math in this case, do no lie.

Well, for one thing, he's incredibly weak in Texas, a state Romney won by 16 points.  Also, not many polls have been conducted in the rockies and plains, but it seems likely that he'll underperform the numbers one would expect from a generic R in them.  We already know that he's going to do far worse than Mitt Romney did in Utah and Idaho.

Tracking polls should be treated separately.  There's tracking polls with Trump up by a point or two.  Average them and Clinton is up 5-6 like the real polls show.

Obama was ahead in the RCP average in Florida by just 1.8. While he did win the state by 2.8, he won  by 7.2 points nationally.

Polls in individual states can also be way off. Obama lost half his pre election lead in Iowa and doubled his Nevada margin.

This is not a daily tracking poll.

The Rocky and Plains states are the most underpopulated states in the Union, and being weak in Texas would not explain +12 (Especially when he is doing almost 10% better in New York and is close in states like Florida and Pennsylvania).

How do you explain Texas then?

He's not doing ten points better in New York nor is he close in Pennsylvania. Plus, Florida has been consistenly +3-4 D, something not seen in decades. Not even in 2008 or 1996.

I already have. Even a +3 Trump result there will not explain a +12 result for Clinton when Democratic states are showing about normal results for Republicans and the Swing states are close. +6 Clinton I can buy, but +12 is a pipe dream for the Red Avatars.

So many things...

No evidence that Trump is doing better than Romney in New York.

Trump is not close in Pennsylvania and is likely losing by nearly double digits. Same with Michigan.

Losing 10% in Texas is going to hurt your national popular vote. So is getting blown out in California by a historic margin, as seems to be the case.

Trump is doing worse than Romney in a number of mid-sized states (Maryland, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona...) by about 5 points.  Romney lost in 2012 by 4 points. 4+5 is very close to 12, especially with margin of error.

McMullin could take an additional 300 to 400k votes from Trump in Utah and Idaho, compared to Romney.

All this adds up.

You have several major national polls putting her up in the range of +7-12. Excluding daily trackers, that jumps to an average of 9.9.

Clinton is greatly overperforming in blue states, Trump is underperforming in a lot of red states. Just not enough to lose them.

...Yet.

Sienna Poll has Clinton only up 24% there, while Rasmussen and Quinnipac have PA at +3 and +6 respectively. As for Florida, that is a recent development. Back in September, if you will recall, Trump pulled ahead for a good chunk of the month. As well, Iowa and Ohio being in the Trump camp would counteract such a lead there.

You've got the ARG, Morning Consult, YouGov and I think an NBC poll all showing 4-7%, which I accept. The IBD and LA Times trackers, however, show a Trump lead. To my knowledge, this is the only tracker which shows a Clinton lead and averaging out these trackers, as was noted upthread, puts it at around +6, which I believe is the actual number. As for Clinton over performing in Blue States, where are these mythical results? New York she is doing worse than Obama, average in Illinois and and California. The swing states are close. The math just doesn't add up to +12.

+12 is a bit high, surely. But let's take a look at some recent polls:


Parsing these data points shows a clear seperation. Daily Tracking is a major outlier, as it was in 2012. Most pollsters rated highly by 538, with the exception of Reuters, show a national lead at 7% or above.

There's also been an 8 point swing since the last ABC/WaPo poll, seen near the bottom. Clinton is doing above 6 points nationally, only daily trackers are dragging this down.

Why all the arguing?

The polls that currently have Trump leading the race are totally inconsistent with the state polling. And so is this poll that has Clinton up by 12.

Surely, the sober conclusion is that Clinton is up by about 6 points, give or take a point or two. Maybe with a bit more upside than downside. A Clinton lead by about 4-9 points sounds right to me at this moment and seems consistent with most of the state polling.

To all the dips[Inks]ts in this thread, tell me the difference:

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If you look at the RCP average for polls conducted in October (or the only 1-2 polls conducted in October if there's not enough for an average) you get this swing map from 2012 -> 2016:

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>30% shade: 1-5 points
>50% shade: 5-10 points
>90% shade: 10+ points

So yeah, it's a pretty clear picture of Trump underperforming Romney overall, even if you assume most of the gray states swing to him.

Well, twelve percent is a little off I guess. I don’t think she’s winning by double digits in the end (though I hope so because that could deliver the house). More likely six or seven percentage points. Nevertheless, this poll likely confirms his pretty weak numbers in TX. If you’re greatly underperforming here, that sinks your national PV substantially. Let alone small states like UT, AK, MT or ID were he's weak, but Mr. Drumpf is also doing poorly in GA, NC and MO while he is not doing better than Romney in larger Dem states like CA, NY and NJ.

No horserace numbers today, but they did release some extra crosstabs:

Affirmative support:
Clinton 56%
Trump 41%

Strong Enthusiasm:
Clinton 52%
Trump 49%

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

SUUUUUUUUUUUUUH-WEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!

Where are you getting 3-5% in Michigan? And yeah, FL/NC are usually 5 or so points to the right of the nation (see:2012). This makes perfect sense considering MOE. Now, it's a tracker, which is a perfectly valid reason to dump it. But otherwise the number checks out

I'll have a go :) Romney was at 46-48 in all the 2012 polls, Trump is at 41-44 in all the 2016 ones. The difference between Clinton+12 and Trump +1 is really just Clinton's number. And Trump seems stuck in an unenviable position.

The second thing you can take from that is the continued strength of third-party polling this late in the game, which wasn't there in 2012. Will it hold up in two weeks time? Will it revert to Trump as NeverTrumpers crack, will it stick or will it flock to Hillary as some of the other polls suggest it might?

Very intresting! I didn't notice it untill you said it.

There's also the #atorover50 for HRC that wasn't there for Obama (with the exception of one poll).

"Waiting for NeverTrumpers to break" is stupid for multiple reasons.

One, a majority of Johnson/Stein support is Obama 2012/Bernie 2016 support, which is not going to consider Trump at all. They're more likely to not vote than to vote Trump.

Two, early voting is happening right now. Each passing day nothing changes for The Donald exponentially increases Hillary's chances of winning. If Trump doesn't take the lead in the RCP average by this time next week (and he won't) he will have 0% chance of winning, even if it is revealed Hillary is really an alien lizard person who eats babies.

Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??

Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??

It seems to be a 3-day moving average, so they'll probably release the next sets of numbers on the 26th, 29th, 2nd, 5th, and 8th. Just a guess.

can't read michigan polls? sad!

It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

I understand that they released other numbers on other topics.
But a "daily" tracker poll, will ask the "main" question everyday, which in turn means that you have a newly computed number everyday (though it may be the same number as the day before).
So if this is a running 3-day tracker poll, you subtract the data from the oldest day, you add the new data from the new day polling you just completed, recompute and there you have the new number for release.
So this is what is odd to me.

It's possible that today's results looked outlier-ey in one direction or the other and, therefore, they didn't release.  I hope that's not the case, as that would make me question the integrity of their poll.

UPDATE:

10/20-10/23: Clinton +12 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 5%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 53%
Trump - 41%

All numbers are unchanged.

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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209&cid=abcnp_tco

I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.

Agreed.

Not all tracking polls are created equal.  If Clinton is leading by 7 in NC, then a 12 point national lead is certainly possible.

Absolutely. Though I wish it would be true this time. Just imagine the orange-skinned clown’s face when he loses by twelve points nationally.

Agree.
I'm just happy that it is "garbage" on the high-plus advantage for Hillary.
This way it offsets the garbage from IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen, in poll averaging.

There's nothing about tracking polls in and of themselves that would make them worse than normal polls. The question is whether or not their methodology is sound. What do we know about this one's?

Tracking polls are fine, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.

This ABC almost seems to be a hybrid.

The first time I agree with Lief :)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dead-heat-congress-clintons-advantage-poll/story?id=43047979

Clinton 49% (-1)
Trump 40% (+2)
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%

Generic congressional ballot D+1

Wow that's a huge difference between Clinton lead ( + 9) and Generic lead for democrats (+1)

Wait, I'm confused. Why did they skip Monday if this is a daily tracker?

2-way numbers: Clinton 51%, Trump 43%.

Looks like this is going to be a daily updating 4-day tracking poll. Today's poll was from October 21-24.

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https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/791596547725201413
Clinton 48 Trump 42 today, Clinton + 6 (Oct 22-25)

Continuing the trend of a Trump recovery with Republicans, while Clinton stays about the same.

But there's "no tightening," I thought??

::)

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.

Not absurd when she was +9 to +12 previously and flirting with a small but hopeful possibility of helping Democrats take the House.

MFW I completely ignore the recent Clinton hold or gain in the Hart/Suffolk/AP-GFK/PPP/YouGov polls to make a bad tightening joke:

problems with this theory:
1. There is still a little bit of time for people to change - numbers are closer than what would make me comfortable.
2. wikileaks/ clinton foundation/ e-mails - dumb voters can't be underestimated.
3. vote is not popular - it only takes a small shift for states like FL, NC, NV, OH, IA to go for Trump and then the margin is razor thin enough that some small region could swing it in any one state pretty much. remember despite all the firewall talk, if the election is a tie, Trump is more likely to win than Clinton.

Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?

I think this is more a case of regression to the norm. All of the other polls don't indicate of such a thing, but if you want to believe this, then go ahead.

How about we all realize the poll was an outlier and now has corrected than make other assumptions.  That may be better for you all.

The amount of dog sweat in this thread is reaching flash flood levels.  There is no tightening in the aggregate.  For every +5 Clinton poll there is a +9 and a +12.  Outliers on the low side are +3-4.  Outliers on the high side are +14-15.  Put on doggy deodorant and calm down.

lol

Beet? Is that you old buddy?

10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She probably hasn't... but we'll see how the other polls line up.

But I assume this will send some of our more delicate posters into some kind of tail-spin.

She hasn't. Hence why tracking polls suck. Its best to poll over a set period of time and average the numbers. Some days will be R-friendly, some D-friendly, thats why you average and get a topline.

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.

There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average ::)

Sassy doesn't suit you.

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.

She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.

I mean, it just sounds true as well... doesn't it?

Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.

RCP also includes daily updates of the L.A times tracking poll, Rasmussen tracking poll and IBD tracking poll to skew the average. The best aggregate is Huffington post f.y.i.

It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The best aggregate being one that fits your narrative. Earthquake coming in Hillary world. Prepare yourself.

Yep, thats abit racist.

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.

Yeah a good amount of polls have fit into that range though, CNN, Fox News, Reuters/Ipsos, Yougov, Pew, NBC/Surveymonkey. It seems like the outliers are polls like Gravis, Rasmussen, and USC on the down side and AP, NBC, and USA Today on the upside.

It was a responce to very offensive (:'()  "Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? :'(:'(:'(

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.

No. One is not nice, but a colloquialism "what are you smoking" etc, the other is racially loaded.

USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.

The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.

In what way? Marginwise? Yes, since Hillary is about +6-7 right now.

My point was though that you cannot blindly say: Obama under/overperformed polls in state X ( or nationally in 12) and won election, so will Clinton. We might see the same pattern though, and yeah, Clinton higly likely win this election.

Obama's average didnt have to deal with 3 daily tracking polls either.

Just two last elections http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok/

From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.

We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.

So we are right back where we were pre-3rd debate, not awful. It really does appear it's more Republicans coming home than Clinton losing support.

Of course the final polls are accurate. After the media tried to manipulate public opinion first. The early voting data does not support any D+9 or D+12 narrative or whatever nonsense this poll started with.

As usual, trackers are junk.

As usual, there is no difference between trackers and non-trackers. None. Literally none. I mean it ::)

I dear say, drug-boofer, I am a resident of an affluent suburb and an alumnus of the prestigious Rutgers University.  I am also in a fraternity whom many a therapist are a member of.  Shall I call to see if I can get you an appointment for your destructive drug boofing?   

Stupidity abounds.

Free-fall, it seems.

Get a grip.

We both know, you're not ::)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shift-electorates-makeup-tightens-presidential-contest-poll/story?id=43142198 Clinton 47, Trump 45 (Clinton + 2 ) in the 4 way today.

Oh, Trump might have a chance after all.

Looking forward to more polls to confirm.

Wow, abc only +2 now and IBD +4, look at Hillary supporters for having a new favourite poll

This makes no sense.

As I've said, pollsters seem to have no clue what they are doing ...

How can you go from Hillary+13 to Hillary+2 in just a matter of days ?

wasn't +12 before, isn't +2 right now.

it just has killed all the magic and the trust of ABC/WAPO.....

Its too soon for any email effect to show so this is all ABC.

It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.

What is so special with trackers, you mean? Are they more difficult to weigh, you mean?

Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...

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Funny how ABC/WaPo and IBD/TIPP are heading in opposite directions.  Just 3 days ago it was ABC/WaPo at Clinton +12 and IBD/TIPP was at Clinton +1.  Now it is Clinton +2 and Clinton +4 respectively.  I guess this is convergence toward the mean.

Intresting thought, actually. I have no clue, if you're right, but the  fact that unaffiliated voters have increased more than all other groups is intriguing...

A lot of it I think has to do with the fact that both candidates tends not to be that popular even with their supporters.  So as the ebb and flow of the news narrative voters for both candidates switch from indicating support for their candidate to indicating they are undecided or will not vote.  Most likely or not  most of them will vote and vote for their candidate.

Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.

Ugh, and this is all before Comey's announcement.  The poll numbers next week might look ugly.

Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? ::)

That means their likely voter model is terrible

No, but it shows that it really doesn't know what the number is.

Agreed.

Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

They use presumably about the same model that always. The model that gave them A+ rating on 538. We don't have any evidence that it wouldn't work this election as well, do we?

And is it not hypocritical that Red Hacks always talk about LV, when they don't like results? Why did LV screen look good for, when this polls showed C+12?

As I always say: Average and move on. Average every single poll. Or just use 538/Upshot/HuffPost.

Just don't like hypocrisy.

I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.

I see no racism from police against Blacks, just a sad trolls protesting to get interviewed by CNN instead of working hard.

Yep, a troll.  Go off and troll someplace else.

Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.

Nate is apparantly is a sad troll as well :D
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792396374042087424




EDIT: and one more https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792398796583997441

The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?

yep. In my mind, it's either a small Clinton popular vote win with the slight possibility of a Trump Electoral college win, or a large Clinton popular vote win.

And one more: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792399653660655616


Nate Silver is sayint exactly what I've been saying.

Average and move on. But Atlas experts digs deep into each single poll and, even worse, in small subgroups and do "analysis", lol.

That's why you vote early. So you don't forget. :)

Before the primaries. He gave up directly after Iowa/NH more or less. But it was 16 dudes, and polls are generally pretty unstable there.

But yeah, he was wrong. Though, it has nothing to do with this tweet, has it?

But he didn't give up, he kept trying to say he was right, until he made a fool of himself and his site, now he is trying to over-correct the record.

This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.

In what way did this poll indicate it?

Lol at all this bed wetting.

Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

??? I suggest you go look at the early vote thread with actual facts before you spew innuendo.

lol

In every state where they polled voters who have already voted, Clinton is winning by larger margins than Obama did 4 years ago

Okay.

Overall State – Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/27

◊ MAIL: 46,235 (+9,874 from 10/26) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/26 {+2.9% Lead up from 2.5% on 10/26 (+0.4%)}

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦ Rep: 677,907 (+71,763 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 631,672 (+61,889 from 10/26)
Other: 40,982 (+3,972 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 258,824 (+29,338 from 10/26)
Total Returned: 1,609,385 (+166,962 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 42.1% (+0.1% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 39.2% (-0.3% from 10/26)
Other: 2.5% (-0.1% from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 16.1% (+0.2% from 10/26)

◊ EARLY VOTE : 34,510 (+3,879 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/26 (+4.0% Lead down from 5.2% on 10/26 {-1.2%})

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 336,299 (+110,337 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 370,809 (+114,216 from 10/26)
Other: 20,052 (+6,522 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 136,899 (+47,626 from 10/26)
Total Voted: 864,059 (+278,701 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 38.9% (+0.3% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 42.9% (-0.9% from 10/26)
Other: 2.3% (same from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 15.8% (+0.5% from 10/26)

NOTE: 16 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County where the voting begins on the 29th and they had the following distribution:

#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082

Dade County:

◊ 2016 General Mail-in-Ballots

♦ Republicans – 60,694
♦ Democrats – 72,162
Other – 1,987
Independents – 34,404
Total Returned – 169,247

◊ 2016 General Early Voting

♦ Republicans – 29,441
♦ Democrats – 51,336
Other – 1,282
Independents – 21,158
Total Voted – 103,217

2012 Election Results Miami-Dade County

B. Obama (i) Dem – 61.6% Total Votes – 540,776
M. Romney GOP – 37.9% Total Votes – 332,602
G. Johnson Lib – 0.3% Total Votes – 2,270
J. Stein Grn – 0.1% Total Votes – 606

Hillary at 55.3% is doing 6 points worse than Obama did in 2012 at 61.6%.  Meanwhile Trump at 44.7% is doing 7 points better than Romney did in 2012 with 37.9%.

NC

2016 – D 46%, R 29%, I 25% (we are BEATING the spread from 2012 {Romney won the state by 2.5 points})
2012 – D 47%, R 29%, I 21%

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/27/update-florida-and-north-carolina-early-voteballot-data-show-advantages-for-donald-trump/

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf)


Second point on page two.

JJC, your mistake is comparing numbers now to final numbers.

LOL, what a junky poll. I could maybe buy a collapse of this magnitude if it was post-emails, but for no reason? Completely ridiculous. They should be embarrassed.

"Trump is inevitable, look at these cherry picked stats from FL/NC!"

Uh...you know that FL/NC are must win states for TRUMP, not Hillary, right?

Not to mention she's doing better in these states overall than in previous years.

Shocked beyond words that Deplorable Steve and pals don't understand early vote data.

Why do you democrats overreact so much after bad polls?

They do because the other candidate is a fascist demagogue that threatens American democracy and the safety of all minorities and political dissidents. A reasonable fear, if an necessary one since current numbers are fine.

Ok, thanks. I read wrong pdf :-[

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a82016ElectionTrackingNo8.pdf

Clinton 46% (-1)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  46% (+/-)

Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Umm... no.

Lol, I've watched this poll everyday and ever since the first narrowing, I've predicted every one since then. Can you tell me what caused the drop from a 12% lead to an 8% lead and every narrowing since? No, you really can't. If you cannot explain such a dramatic shift in the race, I'd say there is something wrong with the poll (and do keep in mind that this dramatic shift was happening well before Friday's FBI announcement).

Either way, there are gong to be a lot of pollsters with ostrich egg on their faces. But this one is especially bad.

This and IBD/TIPP have caused the 4 way Clinton lead to fall to +3.4 now

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.

It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

That's brave of them.

Where? I can't find it.

They did it 3 days ago or so

The head to head matchup is unchanged at 49-46 Clinton. Looking at early vote numbers this measure looks to be more accurate since Johnson's and Stein's percentages in the early vote are way below what they are in public polls

Are you sure? Both Nates (538 and Upshot) would complain about it.

Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.

How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad

Numbers?

You had 14% of Republicans saying he should drop out of the race and another 9% say their congressman/congresswoman should disavow him

Well it was never a 12 point race to begin with.

Honestly the polls have been so chaotic that I'm at the point of just ignoring them completely. It's all about which poll can correctly predict how the turnout on election day will look like. And I don't think anyone has a clue.

Yeah it's borderline unethical to change your methodology in the middle of conducting a tracker poll and then not elaborate.

No, they didn't change the model.

It seems like someone missunderstood (or "missunderstood" ::) )their note about ~"voters' preferences didn't change, their intentions did". But the model itself is unchanged.

One may argue, if the model is good, but when it showed C+12 (bc of low enthusiasm among Reps), it was OK...

I think this has gotten about as close as it's going to get - Clinton at 49% in the two-way, 46% in the three-way. We'll see tomorrow, though.

i predict, 2 or 3 of the trackers are going to show a trump lead, up to two points, during the next week.

No change in the 4 way today, still Clinton + 1, 2 way narrowed to a 2 point lead, 49-47 Clinton

Clinton's fav/unfav at 38/60 now a bit worse than Trump 39/58.  Kinds of prove that axiom in this election that whoever is in the news more will have worse favorables.  It was Trump in most of October and now it is Clinton's turn.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!

So with two days of the FBI stuff in no change.  Still think the poll is sh**t but not bad.

Have they been tracking this too? Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.

So far the FBI email story has not hurt Clinton that much yet although her favorables are being hit which could hurt her chances of picking up undecided.  This poll is from 10/29.  It would be interesting to see 10/30 and 10/31 when all the Sunday talk shows had a chance to talk about this topic.

The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.

Wut.

Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco


http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/

Do we need to go through this with you every four years?

Yes They didn't change the model.



Link? They usually don't report this.

Nope, but I'd like to know why ABC/WaPost is weighing for Party ID when all I hear from you folks is that pollsters shouldn't. So please give me an explanation on that.

Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

:)

Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.

Again, why is ABC reweighing for Party ID? All I have been told here is that that is not the way reputable pollsters do things.

The poll is sh**t, but you remember when you did this four years ago, it didn't turn out so well, and you stopped posting for four years.

Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?

Sit back and enjoy the ride. :)

Move along, nothing to see here. All is well. Hillary will still win Texas.

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Trump 46%
Clinton 45%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459

Well, there we go.

When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-1)
Johnson 3% (-1)
Stein      2% (+0)

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Yes, but many on this site claim that LA Times and Rasmussen are junk and not credible so I tried to find one that people on both sides of the partisan divide would say is a credible pollster regardless of what I might think.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Again, 538 is not gospel.

With this RCP 4 way average is down to Clinton +2.5  I wonder what Rasmussen will come out with today.

As soon as this poll came out the dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) dropped 0.5%

Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

()

Yes, but I recall the last pre-election poll a day before the election had Obama+3 since it was clear that Obama had the momentum the last week of the election.

This tightening will test the strength of the friewal

USA, it is all about turnout.

Hence, why her support has dropped. They fall out of the likely voter screen, doesnt mean they arent voting.

"The latest results, while steady for seven nights, reflect a sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead in the first four nights of tracking, which were a particularly difficult news cycle for Trump. "

Rasmussen was very very good in 2004 et 2008 but bad in 2000 et 2012.

You know, even pollsters having good reputation (mason-dixon, sellzer,...) can sometimes  be completely off (mason dixon in florida 2012, sellzer in gop caucus Iowa 2016,...)

So there are no polls that you can trust 100 %.

This election is probably the most difficult election to poll due to Trump and (maybe) some hidden Trump voters.

At least all of this tightening should make for a dramatic election night. I still have a very hard time seeing how Trump gets to 270 EVs.

Cause there weren't so much polling from WI-CO-NV-PA kinds of states lately. If the tightening is that dramatic how this particular poll suggest, we will see Trump friendly states poll (as we saw in September, when state polls followed nationall polls).  It also would be nice to get some new nationall polls from Selzer/Fox/NBC/Marist/QU/Monmouth etc to see if the tightening is real :D

My issue with the ABC poll is the Party ID reweigh, but I believe this poll is live call (w/Spanish), so I don't know how you can dicker on quality by the later metric. I believe on this site, the live call w/Spanish is considered the highest "quality."

The reweigh by Party ID greatly assists Hillary!

the 5 tossup states are all must wins for Trump. If Clinton wins any of them, she is President

Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
‏@newtgingrich
Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls

20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

Lol, noone said. But being an outlier, doesn't matter that you can't get any usefull information out of the poll. In fact, you can.

Very simpified you can say that:

If you get +12, it means that you at worst at +7.
If you get +1,   it means that you at worst at -4.

So the poll sort of says, that there was at least 3% points shift. Very simplified.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! :)

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. :(

No worries, Putin is on the case to make America great.

()

Back to tied 46-46-3-2

4-way
Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump  46 (-)
Johson   3 (-)
Stein      2 (-)

2-way
Clinton 48 (-)
Trump  47 (-)

She's surging! Poll must be rigged again!

()

Clinton back in lead

Clinton    47
Trump    45
Johnson   3
Stein       2

Something Something *Comey effect*

()

The regional breakdown  seems favorable to Trump implying a lot of wasted Clinton votes in the Northeast but Trump with an advantage in the Midwest.  This poll would imply that Trump should focus on states like WI and MI to get him over the top and forget about PA NH. 

Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.

Dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% when this poll came out.  Of course it is still down by around 4.5% from when the FBI news came out friday.

A tie - Clinton + 3 race? Yeah

I think the demographic breakdown is a misread of the electorate. Think African-American turnout will be 11% of the electorate but Hispanic will be 13% (look at the early vote surge) and others will be 3-4%

Trump getting 13% of liberals makes me sick inside.

Also, Clinton is up despite the majority of responses in this poll are coming from Trump's two best regions.

Absolutely SMASHING!  The media had their circus and now are quickly trying to save face after Muh Surge.

Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%


I tried to get the 538 state flipper to match the electorate sizes in this poll, and it would probably take a MASSIVE black collapse: http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0.621;0.568,CEW:0.531;0.727,Black:0.058;0.485,Latino:0.217;0.419,A/O:0.295;0.549,3:0.05

2-way:
Clinton 49 (+1)
Trump 47  (--)


Literally every tracking poll? Like what?

Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?

Yea, you can throw a couple more points on the board for Our Dear Hillary.  Couple that in with GOTV operation differences (aka a great one vs. none at all) and I'm not moving one inch off my prediction. 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hBjj-wKuP1M

Dude, you f**king kidding me. Trump shoots himself in the foot on weekly basis, has LITERALLY no classic GOTV, and he's still inside a MOE :)

Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 

It's been going back up in NC, OH, and FL the last couple of days after a very slow start. Matching results when Obama ran for office is not realistic but turnout looks to be solid.

Clinton +2 in one day? She's surging, he's collapsing! Polls are rigged again!

That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.

Intresting. So Trump now has worse entusiasm margin than when he was behind 12%. It means, that entusiasm wasn't a main reason, why the race has tightened.

It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

:)

Yes, conservatives and Republicans moving from Johnson to Trump is the big story of the last two weeks.

Do you think the effects dying out, or might they actually be backfiring with Comey himself at the center of the scandal?

I have been thinking that this scandal could have backfired, but I'll wait a couple more days for more polling.

People like the Amazing Atheist and Sargon of Akkad identify as "liberals" for what it's worth.

Thanks for the image.

I hate to say it, but Nate Cohn agrees with you.


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794343177553592324

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Clinton +3 now

Clinton     47
Trump      44
Johnson     3
Stein         2

Looks like those Trmp-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.

Dollor index adjusted Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% on news of this poll. 

What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.

...And? ???

Didn't you hear the news dude? She was running a pedophile sex ring while she was SoS.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!!

http://yournewswire.com/fbi-clinton-email-pedophile-ring/ (http://yournewswire.com/fbi-clinton-email-pedophile-ring/)

4-point-surge in just 3 days

Yeah, the race bounces back :(

Still inside Brexit margin :D

Putin/Comey should go to breaking news again...

Hopefully Putin so people know who he voted for. :)
Brexit from what? Civilization? :D

It seems like Clinton isn't surging so much as some Trump voters are going back to being undecided.

Just out of interest, using yesterday's breakdowns and adjusting the racial composition to 2012 Clinton would have led 50-43

Yup.  Add in the GOTV swing and HockeyDude's 9pt margin for Hillary is looking pretty sweet!

Its almost like Clinton was never +13 and Trump was never ahead the last two weeks.

Shhhhh...

Clinton can win the PV by 2, 2.5, and Trump can win the whole thing if he sneaks out Florida and Pennsylvania.

Even better, he can lose Florida and Pennsylvania but still win if he flips California.

Yeah for sure haha.

Because we want someone who bankrupted a casino in AC in 1995 to be dictating our economic policy. Right.

SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF TRACKING!

CLINTON +12

BEAUTIFUL! :'(

()

It is not strange at all. Few support Trump because of economy ;)


Haha, poor Trump!

Update: Clinton +4

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basically they are just trolling now, aren't they?

They updated 12 hours early? Huhhhh?

()

Bruh

They said next update is Sunday, so maybe nobody works on Saturday and they wanted to get it out before they went home.

Pour one out for the x axis

I guess lol, they probably will hype again and narrow it Sunday - Tuesday

Wait when did they call the new people for today's poll ???

ABC News Politics ‏@ABCPolitics  5m5 minutes ago
Trump's support from GOP-leaning voters drops to 82% in new ABC/WaPo tracking poll, with 6% going to Gary Johnson

Evan McMurry ‏@evanmcmurry  2m2 minutes ago
Clinton, meanwhile, claims 87% of leaned-Democratic voters in @ABC News/WaPo tracking poll, losing 2% to Johnson.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-rebounds-enthusiasm-trump-slips-tight-race-poll/story?id=43309964

Karen Travers @karentravers
NEW @ABC-WP tracker: Clinton 47 Trump 43. Support for Trump has slipped to lowest in 10 days, enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has recovered
0 replies 10 retweets 38 likes

When they saw a lot of Trump friendly s**t polls today :P

I actually think the non-white, non-black, non-Hispanic data is more interesting...

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch  1m1 minute ago
Clinton leading with Jews 73%-18% via ABC/Post poll aggregate of 4,613 interviews since Oct 20 (to look at small sample size groups)

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Thanks, Ozymandias.

It is really intresting. IDK, why other didn't look into this :)

The data is still little bit noise. Jews 2% = ~80, but still quite intresting!

Palm Beach County swings to Clinton (heavy Jewish vote in that county)

Interesting tidbit:

So the thing that has dogged Hillary the entire campaign and kept Trump afloat through his constant campaign ending gaffes, controversies, etc. was the fact that the American public has the attention span of a goldfish and is incapable of caring about any event, no matter how big, for more than a week. For once the stupidity of Americans has worked in Hillary's favor. LOL

Technically that's a higher topline number for Obama, but that is good news. Hopefully Hillary can close out strong

Clinton +5

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

I called it folks! New numbers from Nov. 1-4:

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%

Up up up!

Nice!!!

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

Remember, trackers suck.

But a positive trend

BANZAI!!!!!!

BEAUTIFUL

Looking more plausible that the shift we saw after the Comey disclosure was mostly just non-response, with not too many voters actually changing their minds. Still nervous, but edging away from panic.

Yeah, I think it's gonna turn out that Comey happened just a little too early. Would have been real trouble had it landed today. Now, as it is, it'll roll off almost entirely by Tuesday.

i am nervous as hell atm....too many state polls (and i don't mean those from "National Future Research Global Marketing Inititative (R)) with twisted results.

in the best case, imho, there is going to be a re-aligment of state, sub-groups and congressional districts.

The realignment is that Democrats and Republicans trade Iowa and North carolina, and that between Florida and Ohio, Florida now becomes the more Democratic battleground state.

The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5

Almost as if trackers are junk.

🤔

The Friday write-up said that Monday was one of her best nights, so the fact that she went up today despite Monday dropping off is TREMENDOUS news!

Yup.

Honestly, at this point, I'm wondering if there's any point in following polls at all. They really aren't telling us anything of value right now.

Oh that's bad news for Trump. 😁

Would not be surprised if this ends up as the most accurate poll when all is said and done.

Can you show the link?

Makes sense given how close NC/NH/FL are and the likelihood of Trump winning by 4-6 points in AZ/GA.

Have we not learned the lessons of "battleground" polls

The sample size is too small to be significant.

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Clinton by 4

Clinton    47
Trump    43
Johnson   4
Stein       2

Good, Trump at 43...

Looks like everything is settling in at Clinton +3 to +5

+3 rather :) RCP shows the average at +2.2 (not including LATimes poll)

Yep.
538 Clinton +3%
Upshot Clinton +2.6%

Updated with today's poll: Nov 3-6:

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 1% (-1)

Final update to this tracker. All steady except Jill Stein.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2016-race-stays-47-43-sunday-poll/story?id=43364234

Wasn't ABC the closest to 2012's final margin?

Junk poll.

Disgusting media :)