Talk Elections

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Arizona Republic on 2016-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4320161015071)

Summary: D: 40%, R: 52%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/)

This seat is fool's gold for the Dems. Seems like McCain got away with his unendorsement. Likely R.

There is an another poll that shows Mccain +3 only though

We could see a Mark Warner situation here, but I won't hold my breath.

Yeah, nothing to see here, even though McCain objectively deserves to lose.

Respect to Ann Kirkpatrick for trying. Dems couldn't have found a better candidate. Certainly deserves more credit than Strickland or Murphy.

Sinema? Giffords? Carmona?

I guess McCain is just too entrenched. Democrats were right to put forth a decent candidate, since there was a chance that Ward could have beaten McCain in the primary.

Giffords is in no shape to campaign. Sinema and Carmona would probably run equal or worse than Kirkpatrick IMO.

Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?

Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.

CLC, DeSantis, and Jolly would have been fighting a bitter three-way primary, and the winner would come out damaged and short on cash, giving Murphy the advantage (by mid-June, it became clear Murphy would win his primary).

Yeah, but to pretend that Murphy could literally refrain from campaigning and still win (Which is what Safe D is supposed to mean) is just stupid.

So if Rob Portman stops campaigning, he'll lose?

I don't think there are any Congress members who simply 'not campaign' because they have a safe seat.  And frankly if you're someone who doesn't, you're probably a shtty representative for your constituents in general.

Mark Warner and Bob Casey were supposed to be the safest incumbents in their last elections.  Lee Terry was supposed to be safe in his district.  When they took that attitude, they either lost or came reasonably close to losing.

I take it back, Wulfric. You do know more about politics than TNvol! ;)

No, he'll win. I have that at Safe R now.

And on representatives who don't campaign, let me know when all of those super safe democrats in NYC, or all of those super safe republicans in much of Texas, ever get around to campaigning in the general election. Yeah, they'll do something in the primary if someone runs against them. But in the general, maybe a town hall or two in the August Recess because "everyone does it", but beyond that they probably just sit back in one of their residences and relax while whatever donations they get collect dust in some bank account or random desk drawer, never to be spent until their next primary.

Sinema is an openly bisexual atheist. I'm not sure Arizona would like her(Though she would still probably be a good recruit). Giffords has recovered from the shooting in 2011, but she still has a strongly inhibited ability to speak(i.e. she can think fine, but has serious trouble communicating those thoughts), which would make voters unfairly question her mental ability. Carmona doesn't want to run anymore, so...

Did Sinema ever actually classify herself as athiest? I know she dodged the question at least once in 2012.