Talk Elections

Clinton 48 (+10)
Trump 38
Johnson 6
Stein 4

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=088d0066-02dc-4faa-affe-a321d1390f73

Half of the polls have Ohio as a tossup and the other half show Hillary leading by 10. Go figure. :P

It's Oregon

...oh, lol.

If this election has taught me anything it is not to look for any relationship between national polling and state polling.

Clinton is apparently up by 7 points (or more...) nationally and is somehow only winning Oregon by 10 points.

SurveyUSA always has the oddest crosstabs.  Clinton ahead with hispanics 52-48% (wut?) and Portland area is 51%-33% and only ahead with Urban voters 54%-32%

What is concerning for me is the governors race. Jezzz, please don't give us a deplorable governor! :(

Voters pamphlet arrived in the mail here today.  That usually means ballots will be in mailboxes in the next couple of days.  Voting will begin here in earnest in only days!

My ballot is supposed to be mailed to me on the 19th. Can't wait to fill in that circle for Hillary.

More likely than not SUSA has no idea how to poll Oregon. Anyway, Safe D, nothing to see here.

Oregon is Safe.

Very weird poll.

SUSA's crosstabs are always weird.

This poll is total "bunk"...  (Urban Dictionary definition below)

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bunk

Granted, I can buy the 10% of Oregonians supporting the Libertarian and Green tickets, of whom the vast majority are Democratic-leaning voters in a state that overwhelmingly Dem/Rep/Indie wanted to see Bernie as the next President of the United States.

As a "safe state" a great number of Oregonians (Many friends and family included) do not want to vote for the "lesser of two evils"and realize that this is not a 2000 scene where the state was extremely close when 4 % of the voters went for Nader.

Even if one looks at the breakdown by age, income, gender, and education it is absolutely clear that Clinton will win by double-digits at a minimum.

My personal theory is that Oregon will actually vote to the Left of Washington State this year, but not yet ready to take personal bets with some of my forum friends from Washington yet on this.

Multnomah County  (Portland+ Gresham and Eastern Burbs) has become a + 55 D County, Washington County in the Middle-Class burbs of Portland has moved from a 60-40 Republican County in '88 to a 60-40 Dem County in the 2000's. It is not only a rapidly growing and highly educated minority population of Latino and Asian-Americans, but also will likely go 65-35 in a two-person race this year. Clackamas County is traditionally considered more of a "working-class" county, but in reality actually has some of the wealthiest suburbs of Portland, including Lake Oswego (Highest income city >25k pop) as well as newer exurban mini mansions in places like Happy Valley and Damascus.

Downstate, the Republican Party pretty much maxed out after the Timber Wars of the '90s, and although I suspect Coos County (New Deal Blue Collar Dem) will likely vote narrowly Trump this year, Jackson County (Middle-Class Cali retirees in Medford, Jacksonville and wealthier in Ashland), Deschutes County (Central Oregon heavily cali Upper-Middle-Class retirees) will flip Democrat from 2012, and additionally I suspect that heavily Latino and Mormon counties in Eastern Oregon will likely swing heavily Democrat in 2016 compared to Romney 2012 numbers.

Thinking Oregon is more like +15 Dem come November.