|
Title: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: HillOfANight on October 05, 2016, 07:15:30 AM https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/783640247070560256
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783641151920300032 https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/ It's a mix of polls and "analysis" Clinton’s lead: National +4 MI +5 CO +5 NH +4 WI +3 NC +2 FL +2 PA +2 NV +2 IA +1 OH +1 GA TIE Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 05, 2016, 07:17:53 AM Yeah, no.
But "it's another data point(s)" Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: heatcharger on October 05, 2016, 07:22:27 AM Isn't this a 50-state poll? At least it's more realistic than anything Google or Reuters has released.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 05, 2016, 07:24:36 AM Isn't this a 50-state poll? At least it's more realistic than anything Google or Reuters has released. I'm not sure what this is... it seems a bit like a 50 state poll, but releasing the data in dribs and drabs Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: HillOfANight on October 05, 2016, 07:28:37 AM Isn't this a 50-state poll? At least it's more realistic than anything Google or Reuters has released. I'm not sure what this is... it seems a bit like a 50 state poll, but releasing the data in dribs and drabs https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783643089214767106 Quote different from a poll – based on interviews combined with analysis of voter types. Whatever that means... They have a detailed methodology I haven't read yet. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: BlueSwan on October 05, 2016, 07:54:55 AM https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/783640247070560256 https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783641151920300032 It's a mix of polls and "analysis" Clinton’s lead: National +4 MI +5 CO +5 NH +4 WI +3 NC +2 FL +2 PA +2 NV +2 IA +1 OH +1 GA TIE Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: HillOfANight on October 05, 2016, 08:12:23 AM https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/
They predicted 4% in 2012 which was pretty spot on, and their September 2012 data only missed NC/NH. Their October 2012 data only missed NC. Quote The raw data for our analysis is about 50,000 respondents to YouGov’s polling over the past two weeks, however turning that into state-level estimates involves several other sources of data to ensure that we are generating a representative portrait of the electorate, not just of those who respond to our polls. The approach we are following, which is referred to as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), has three components. ... So one type of (potential) voter in the election might be a female, age over 85, with post-graduate education, living in the 9th Congressional district of Massachusetts, who voted for Obama in 2012. Change any of those characteristics, and you have another type. For each of these types, there are three important quantities that we would like to know. ... 1) What proportion of people of that type will vote for Clinton, Trump, Johnson, Stein, etc, among those who do vote? 2) What proportion of the individuals in each voter type will turn out to vote? 3) How many (voting eligible) individuals are there of that type? Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 05, 2016, 08:57:00 AM If Clinton is ahead 4-5 in Florida, and 2-3 in NC, then a tie in Georgia is not a very surprising result.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 05, 2016, 09:07:02 AM either WI and PA are much closer than thought or georgia is...both at the same time won't happen i think.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 05, 2016, 09:19:05 AM either WI and PA are much closer than thought or georgia is...both at the same time won't happen i think. I think the model assumes a lot of WCW shift right and CEW shift left... that could result in those states all being competitive, though I agree that the recent polling PA would suggest that's not actually a uniform thing. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Illiniwek on October 05, 2016, 10:30:01 AM Not even looking at Georgia. Seeing IA and OH back on the winning team makes me happy. I hope this holds.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Seriously? on October 05, 2016, 11:10:11 AM From this link: https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ it looks like a daily 50-state tracker with a two-week time frame.
Interesting. The problem is that it doesn't seem to break down the number of respondents per state that I can see.. There are about 36,000 interviews in there though. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ozymandias on October 05, 2016, 11:47:40 AM This isn't a "real" or "pure" 50-state poll-- IIUC, then like Morning Consult from a few weeks ago, it uses a technique called MRP to model characteristics of voters across the country, and then applies that model to its entire national sample to make predictions for each state.
That's why there's no sample size per state-- because every polled voter has a small effect on every state (which of course varies from state to state, depending on the characteristics of the voter). Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ebsy on October 05, 2016, 12:22:24 PM Good numbers on average I guess. YouGov seems to think EVERY state will be close in this election.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Seriously? on October 05, 2016, 12:22:57 PM This isn't a "real" or "pure" 50-state poll-- IIUC, then like Morning Consult from a few weeks ago, it uses a technique called MRP to model characteristics of voters across the country, and then applies that model to its entire national sample to make predictions for each state. That's why there's no sample size per state-- because every polled voter has a small effect on every state (which of course varies from state to state, depending on the characteristics of the voter). Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Badger on October 06, 2016, 12:11:40 AM The results seem too clustered like a bell curve. There's likely greater differentiation among these states.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Shadows on October 06, 2016, 03:04:15 AM This is a very bad result for Clinton. How come WI is +3 & MI only +5. PA +2 is an absolute disaster
All 4 of PA, OH, FL & NC are withing 2% points. Trump needs a 1% swing away from Clinton or 2% of voters from the pool of Johnson/Undecided with Clinton holding still. 2% is not a good margin to have - That kind of swing can happen absolutely any day. And this means WI & MI are in play. I will take this poll as an outlier! Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: dspNY on October 08, 2016, 08:01:49 AM Updating this: All the states in gray/light blue/light red on October 7. Numbers rounded off
National lead: Clinton 4.79% Light blue: VA: Clinton 50, Trump 42 CO: Clinton 49, Trump 42 MI: Clinton 49, Trump 43 MN: Clinton 49, Trump 43 NH: Clinton 48, Trump 43 PA: Clinton 48, Trump 45 NC: Clinton 48, Trump 45 WI: Clinton 47, Trump 44 FL: Clinton 48, Trump 46 IA: Clinton 46, Trump 44 Gray/tossups: NV: Clinton 47, Trump 45 OH: Clinton 47, Trump 46 (Clinton actually leads by 0.5%, 46.6-46.1%) GA: Clinton 47, Trump 47 (Clinton actually leads by 0.4%, 46.9-46.5%) Light red: MS: Trump 49, Clinton 45 AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 42 IN: Trump 48, Clinton 41 SC: Trump 50, Clinton 43 (Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Person Man on October 08, 2016, 08:12:24 AM I can believe that this is a good base line going into home stretch. Before we were 100% sure that Trump was a a rapist but before we know that Assange is either an actual spy/terrorist(someone who tries to influence behavior through violence or espionage or other war crimes and that somehow Hillary really loves basketry) or just a troll. Arizona is kinda disappointed but a majority of people I spent time with in Phoenix were total c**nts.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ozymandias on October 08, 2016, 10:01:58 AM (Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model Actually, the results in most states are so similar to the margins that 538 predicts that I suspect YouGov uses the 538 predictions to help calibrate their model, because the fit is generally just as good in lightly-polled states as in heavily-polled states, which you wouldn't expect from an entirely independent model. So I think 538 using these results-- which again, aren't actually a poll-- would be redundant... Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 07:21:44 AM (Personal note): I like this daily tracker, think it has a legit methodology and should be included in the 538 model Actually, the results in most states are so similar to the margins that 538 predicts that I suspect YouGov uses the 538 predictions to help calibrate their model, because the fit is generally just as good in lightly-polled states as in heavily-polled states, which you wouldn't expect from an entirely independent model. So I think 538 using these results-- which again, aren't actually a poll-- would be redundant... That's possible...here are the numbers today: National: Clinton 48.5%, Trump 43.3%, Johnson 4.9%, Stein 2.0% Safe Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME (no district breakdown though), MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA Safe Republican states: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MT, NE (no district breakdown though), ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY Lean Democratic (light blue) NH: Clinton 49, Trump 41 MN: Clinton 49, Trump 42 MI: Clinton 49, Trump 42 CO: Clinton 49, Trump 42 WI: Clinton 48, Trump 44 IA: Clinton 47, Trump 43 FL: Clinton 49, Trump 46 PA: Clinton 48, Trump 45 NC: Clinton 48, Trump 45 OH: Clinton 47, Trump 45 (moved from tossup) NV: Clinton 46, Trump 44 (moved from tossup) Tossups GA: Clinton 47, Trump 46 Lean Republican (pink states) MS: Trump 49, Clinton 45 AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 42 SC: Trump 50, Clinton 43 TX: Trump 50, Clinton 42 (moved from safe Republican) IN: Trump 49, Clinton 41 Maine-2, Nebraska-2 (my own analysis based off this tracker). Obama won Maine-2 by 8% in 2012 and the state by 15.3%. Clinton currently leads Maine by 9.6% in this tracker, a 6% dropoff from 2012. Assuming the vote cuts the way we've seen it cutting, ME-2 is a TOSSUP with a very marginal lean to Clinton, if any. Romney won Nebraska-2 by 7% in 2012 and the state by 21.8%. Trump currently leads Nebraska by 13.9% in this tracker, an 8% dropoff from 2012. Assuming the vote cuts the way we've seen it cutting, NE-2 is also a TOSSUP with a very marginal lean to Clinton (Pence is going to Omaha in his revamped schedule) Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 11, 2016, 01:21:38 AM Yougov Poll, Pennsylvania 10/9
Hillary 47.4% | TRUMP 45.1% | Johnson 4.2% | Stein 1.8% https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania not bad, considering pussy-gate. and pre-debate TRUMP won big of Independent voters in YouGov Poll. Independent : TRUMP 51% | Hillary 36% http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nojfnna7ti/Post%20Debate%20Poll%20Tables.pdf (http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nojfnna7ti/Post%20Debate%20Poll%20Tables.pdf) Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ebsy on October 11, 2016, 01:38:13 AM These aren't polls though.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Lachi on October 11, 2016, 01:48:27 AM #StopStatesPoll
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: afleitch on October 11, 2016, 02:21:31 AM It's multi level regression.
It was used in the UK general election by YouGov and was...not good. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: alomas on October 11, 2016, 05:57:09 AM Pennsylvania numbers are actually surprisingly good for Trump. I can see now 2.2 points difference on the website which mean PA is absolutely in play, especially as it is a post-tape poll. Clinton is leading by 7 on average so this looks completely different. We need to wait for more polls though.
Very bad numbers in Georgia though, I must be a long long time when Republican lost that state. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 12, 2016, 08:17:02 PM YouGov 10/11 Pennsylvania: Hillary 47.1% | TRUMP 45.3% now just 1.8% margins. https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fusionmunster on October 12, 2016, 08:35:29 PM These arent, like actual polls though. If you want a YouGov PA poll, refer to the CBS/YouGov poll.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 13, 2016, 06:15:50 AM YouGov Election Model Pennsylvania. 10/12 Hillary 46.6% | TRUMP 45.4% | Johnson 4.4% | Stein 1.9% Back in the game. https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 13, 2016, 06:21:17 AM YouGov Election Model Pennsylvania. 10/12 Hillary 46.6% | TRUMP 45.4% | Johnson 4.4% | Stein 1.9% Back in the game. https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania NC(15) + NV(6) - PA(20) = 1 273 Freiwal! () Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 14, 2016, 08:50:43 AM YouGov Election Model https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania Pennsylvania: Hillary 46.5% | TRUMP 45.6% | Johnson 4.6% | Stein 1.8% #TRUMPGonnaFlipPASoon Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 14, 2016, 09:45:05 AM YouGov Election Model https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania Pennsylvania: Hillary 46.5% | TRUMP 45.6% | Johnson 4.6% | Stein 1.8% #TRUMPGonnaFlipPASoon () Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Gass3268 on October 14, 2016, 09:46:32 AM YouGov Election Model https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania Pennsylvania: Hillary 46.5% | TRUMP 45.6% | Johnson 4.6% | Stein 1.8% #TRUMPGonnaFlipPASoon () Still have 25 days... Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fargobison on October 16, 2016, 12:38:22 PM Georgia flips to HRC...
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ebsy on October 16, 2016, 12:40:11 PM They now have Mississippi extremely close, with Trump only +2.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: HillOfANight on October 16, 2016, 12:58:42 PM https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/787713135809552384
Unlike a lot of public pollsters, YouGov keeps partisan metrics fairly stable. HRC +6.1 in their model -- the highest margin they've shown. Her median electoral vote total is 362. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Maxwell on October 16, 2016, 01:00:00 PM YouGov also isn't very good - keep in mind how many international elections they've butchered.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 16, 2016, 01:02:27 PM I guess Statespoll is done posting about Pennsylvania lol
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: dspNY on October 16, 2016, 01:16:01 PM After some meandering and a crawl towards Trump, Clinton spikes to a 6% national lead. GA, PA, IA and NV turn blue. TX, LA, and SC turn pink again.
Safe Dem: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME (including ME-1), MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA Lean Dem: CO: Clinton 48.2, Trump 41.1 FL: Clinton 48.4, Trump 45.4 GA: Clinton 46.9, Trump 44.4 IA: Clinton 46.0, Trump 43.2 MI: Clinton 48.6, Trump 41.9 MN: Clinton 48.6, Trump 41.3 NV: Clinton 46.4, Trump 42.3 NH: Clinton 47.5, Trump 40.6 NC: Clinton 48.0, Trump 44.0 OH: Clinton 47.7, Trump 44.0 PA: Clinton 47.0, Trump 44.5 WI: Clinton 48.8, Trump 42.2 Lean Republican: AZ: Trump 47.0, Clinton 42.5 MS: Trump 47.7, Clinton 45.4 SC: Trump 48.4, Clinton 43.0 TX: Trump 49.0, Clinton 42.0 LA: Trump 49.6, Clinton 41.9 Safe Republican: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MO, NE (including NE-1 and NE-3), ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY Tossups: ME-2: Clinton 45.6, Trump 44.2 NE-2: Trump 45.3, Clinton 44.2 Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Rand on October 16, 2016, 02:14:54 PM Noice.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: OneJ on October 16, 2016, 06:32:17 PM They now have Mississippi extremely close, with Trump only +2. I'd be overjoyed with this result on election day if it were to happen. =( Title: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 17, 2016, 08:14:42 AM BOOM!
() Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: rafta_rafta on October 17, 2016, 08:15:33 AM WHOA
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Fusionmunster on October 17, 2016, 08:16:48 AM Wut?
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 17, 2016, 08:18:36 AM ()
() () () () () () () () () () Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: BoAtlantis on October 17, 2016, 08:20:09 AM YouGov has a Democrat bias but Hillary could take it.
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Edu on October 17, 2016, 08:22:02 AM ()
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: HillOfANight on October 17, 2016, 08:25:46 AM I don't think this is an actual Georgia specific poll, but part of their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) project. They take lots of responses, not necessarily Georgia specific, and then model those responses back to Georgia, based on similar profiles.
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Georgia See the 47-44 result here. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247418.msg5321100#msg5321100 Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on October 17, 2016, 08:26:26 AM #HILLARYSLIDE2016!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 17, 2016, 08:30:58 AM ()
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Gass3268 on October 17, 2016, 08:33:12 AM I don't think this is an actual Georgia specific poll, but part of their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) project. They take lots of responses, not necessarily Georgia specific, and then model those responses back to Georgia, based on similar profiles. https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Georgia See the 47-44 result here. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247418.msg5321100#msg5321100 Yeah, it's already down to Clinton +1.4 Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Dr. Arch on October 17, 2016, 08:35:50 AM Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 17, 2016, 08:36:39 AM Magnificent!
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on October 17, 2016, 08:37:56 AM Better than I was expecting at this stage!
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: SPQR on October 17, 2016, 08:51:12 AM The latest bunch of polls on some of the states which have been polled the least (Idaho, Louisiana) or not a lot (Georgia) seems to show that Clinton is overpeforming by 5 to 8 points relatively to 538's polls-only state forecasts.
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: psychprofessor on October 17, 2016, 09:08:06 AM not unexpected...will be close
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Rand on October 17, 2016, 09:19:52 AM () Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: StatesPoll on October 17, 2016, 09:28:49 AM 1. after one day, Yougov Georgia 10/16 Hillary 45.8 | TRUMP 45.4 (10/15 it was Hillary 46.9 | TRUMP 44.4) 2. Yougov Model(GA) underweighted White Voters. Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Roronoa D. Law on October 17, 2016, 09:31:54 AM Well Clinton is up 7 points nationally so it makes since she winning GA.
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 17, 2016, 09:43:21 AM This is absolutely amazing. The Trumpster is melting down. However, I still believe he will carry GA, though AZ may be really in play. Especially if Johnson takes enough votes away from Trump. GA is not a good fit for Johnson as is AZ.
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: mark_twain on October 17, 2016, 10:04:53 AM Great poll! Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: pbrower2a on October 17, 2016, 10:09:42 AM Georgia going for Hillary Clinton indicates a Trump crash.
Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: Podgy the Bear on October 17, 2016, 10:14:40 AM I am a realist (the North Georgia exurban vote is tremendous and will deliver 75-80% for Trump)--but I am optimistic.
I believe the media advertising here for Hillary is going fine, but it would be good to have the Obamas come here to help drive the vote in Atlanta and the suburbs. Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 17, 2016, 10:45:27 AM Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: mark_twain on October 17, 2016, 11:36:53 AM A huge improvement over the last poll from YouGov taken for GA from 8/10 to 8/12, which was Trump +4. That was from Clinton's high point in August. Having a +7 jump from that poll is an extraordinary result for Clinton in GA. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 17, 2016, 05:03:25 PM Not buying this, but it would be nice to see GA be at least somewhat close on election day.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: OneJ on October 17, 2016, 09:55:06 PM Speaking of the Sipp, looks like the state Democratic Party is kinda excited about this "poll".
http://www.msnewsnow.com/story/33411331/latest-presidential-poll-breakdown-for-mississippi-shows-narrow-margin Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Bacon King on October 17, 2016, 10:20:16 PM One thing that jumps out at me in Yougov's analysis is they think only half of hispanics & others in GA will be voting for Hillary - she will take 2/3 from both groups at the very least
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2016, 01:54:02 AM I thought it felt more pleasant recently ... now I know. I look forward to SP and others crawling back under their rocks on November (I was going to say 9th, but sometime around) November 8th at about 8pm.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ebsy on October 19, 2016, 02:00:45 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned?
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 19, 2016, 02:04:10 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned? you should be banned, not me ;) Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2016, 02:10:33 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned? you should be banned, not me ;) Ebsy, are you OK? Make a noise if you survived that burn. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 19, 2016, 02:13:31 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned? you should be banned, not me ;) Why? Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 21, 2016, 06:10:17 AM 10/20(Post Final Debate) TRUMP flipped Georgia[/b][/size] https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ GA: TRUMP 46.7% | Hillary 46.2% AZ: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 41.3% NC: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 47.9% PA: TRUMP 45.8% | Hillary 46.4% OH: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 46.9% FL: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 47.7% WI: TRUMP 44.1% | Hillary 47.7% CO: TRUMP 42.6% | Hillary 47.2% IA: TRUMP 43.5% | Hillary 45.7% NV: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 46.6% MI: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 48.7% MN: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 48.4% ME: TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 49.1% OR: TRUMP 39.9% | Hillary 49.5% VA: TRUMP 41.0% | Hillary 49.9% Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 21, 2016, 07:49:54 AM 10/20(Post Final Debate) TRUMP flipped Georgia[/b][/size] https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ GA: TRUMP 46.7% | Hillary 46.2% AZ: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 41.3% NC: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 47.9% PA: TRUMP 45.8% | Hillary 46.4% OH: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 46.9% FL: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 47.7% WI: TRUMP 44.1% | Hillary 47.7% CO: TRUMP 42.6% | Hillary 47.2% IA: TRUMP 43.5% | Hillary 45.7% NV: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 46.6% MI: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 48.7% MN: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 48.4% ME: TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 49.1% OR: TRUMP 39.9% | Hillary 49.5% VA: TRUMP 41.0% | Hillary 49.9% Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Mallow on October 21, 2016, 07:57:32 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned? Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 21, 2016, 08:48:45 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned? I would recommend my dear friend StatesPoll to wear a glasses; obviously he has trouble with reading normal sized letters. :P Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: afleitch on October 21, 2016, 08:55:33 AM Once again, it's a model. Look at Utah. There isn't even an option for McMullin.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 21, 2016, 09:32:06 AM Why has Statespoll not been banned? I would recommend my dear friend StatesPoll to wear a glasses; obviously he has trouble with reading normal sized letters. :P Should this become a Yougov's megathread? Title: Re: GA- YouGov: Clinton +3 Post by: StatesPoll on October 26, 2016, 11:29:31 AM 10/25 YouGov Election Model
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ GA: TRUMP 46.0% | Hillary 46.8% AZ: TRUMP 47.5% | Hillary 41.8% NC: TRUMP 45.0% | Hillary 48.1% PA: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 46.5% OH: TRUMP 46.0% | Hillary 46.1% FL: TRUMP 46.9% | Hillary 46.9% WI: TRUMP 44.2% | Hillary 47.2% CO: TRUMP 42.5% | Hillary 47.0% IA: TRUMP 43.7% | Hillary 45.0% NV: TRUMP 45.0% | Hillary 46.3% MI: TRUMP 42.8% | Hillary 48.6% MN: TRUMP 42.8% | Hillary 47.1% ME: TRUMP 42.3% | Hillary 47.6% ME-2: TRUMP 47.7% | Hillary 42.8% NH: TRUMP 43.0% | Hillary 47.9% OR: TRUMP 39.1% | Hillary 48.8% VA: TRUMP 41.5% | Hillary 49.3% CT: TRUMP 40.8% | Hillary 50.7% NJ: TRUMP 37.8% | Hillary 53.9% Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Bacon King on October 26, 2016, 11:33:35 AM Haha oh wow, Hillary doing better in GA than she is in OH, FL
yuge if true Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Person Man on October 26, 2016, 11:42:01 AM Up in Georgia. Lol
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 26, 2016, 11:45:46 AM Clinton does very well in online polls of Georgia for some reason.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 26, 2016, 11:54:02 AM Clinton does very well in online polls of Georgia for some reason. Hip, young, saavy blacks who love the internet and can't wait to turn GA blue, of course. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 26, 2016, 12:12:36 PM So, the preponderance of evidence shows she's slipped from around +8/+9 nationally to roughly +5. Relatively quickly.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 26, 2016, 12:17:17 PM So, the preponderance of evidence shows she's slipped from around +8/+9 nationally to roughly +5. Relatively quickly. +5 is a bit of a leap. More like +6/+7 seems more reasonable. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 27, 2016, 05:27:27 AM 10/26 YouGov Election Model
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ TRUMP flipped FL/GA/OH GA: TRUMP 46.7% | Hillary 46.6% AZ: TRUMP 48.3% | Hillary 41.9% NC: TRUMP 45.3% | Hillary 48.2% PA: TRUMP 45.5% | Hillary 46.7% OH: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 45.9% FL: TRUMP 47.3% | Hillary 46.9% WI: TRUMP 44.2% | Hillary 47.8% CO: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 47.3% IA: TRUMP 44.0% | Hillary 45.4% NV: TRUMP 45.5% | Hillary 46.1% MI: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 48.9% MN: TRUMP 42.5% | Hillary 47.8% ME: TRUMP 42.3% | Hillary 48.5% ME-2: TRUMP 47.1% | Hillary 44.0% NH: TRUMP 42.9% | Hillary 48.4% OR: TRUMP 39.6% | Hillary 49.3% VA: TRUMP 42.0% | Hillary 49.5% Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on October 30, 2016, 06:13:58 AM 10/29 YouGov Election Model
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ TRUMP flipped PA. PA: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 46.5% OH: TRUMP 47.3% | Hillary 45.9% FL: TRUMP 47.6% | Hillary 47.0% WI: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 47.3% CO: TRUMP 43.7% | Hillary 47.4% GA: TRUMP 47.0% | Hillary 46.8% AZ: TRUMP 49.4% | Hillary 41.1% NC: TRUMP 45.9% | Hillary 47.5% IA: TRUMP 44.7% | Hillary 45.7% NV: TRUMP 45.9% | Hillary 46.1% MI: TRUMP 43.0% | Hillary 49.1% VA: TRUMP 43.2% | Hillary 49.4% MN: TRUMP 42.4% | Hillary 48.8% ME: TRUMP 41.8% | Hillary 49.4% ME-2: TRUMP 47.3% | Hillary 44.0% NH: TRUMP 41.4% | Hillary 49.9% OR: TRUMP 40.3% | Hillary 49.1% Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on October 30, 2016, 06:43:15 AM hmm, bet you Hillary shill Nate Silver won't include this in his model!
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 06:44:33 AM hmm, bet you Hillary shill Nate Silver won't include this in his model! These s*** polls have already wreaked havoc on the model. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on October 30, 2016, 06:45:25 AM hmm, bet you Hillary shill Nate Silver won't include this in his model! These s*** polls have already wreaked havoc on the model. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: StatesPoll on November 04, 2016, 12:22:45 PM 11/3 YouGov Election Model
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ TRUMP is winning in FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/OH/PA/ME-2 close race in WI/CO/ME(Statewide) PA: TRUMP 47.0% | Hillary 46.9% OH: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 45.2% FL: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 46.7% NC: TRUMP 47.6% | Hillary 47.2% IA: TRUMP 46.3% | Hillary 44.8% NV: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 45.7% WI: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 47.3% CO: TRUMP 44.9% | Hillary 47.0% MI: TRUMP 44.0% | Hillary 48.6% VA: TRUMP 43.6% | Hillary 48.9% GA: TRUMP 47.1% | Hillary 47.0% AZ: TRUMP 49.9% | Hillary 42.0% ME: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 46.9% ME-2: TRUMP 48.9% | Hillary 41.1% MN: TRUMP 42.7% | Hillary 48.2% NH: TRUMP 42.4% | Hillary 48.8% OR: TRUMP 40.9% | Hillary 49.0% DE: TRUMP 43.3% | Hillary 50.4% Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: America Needs R'hllor on November 04, 2016, 12:31:35 PM 11/3 YouGov Election Model https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ TRUMP is winning in FL/GA/IA/NC/NV/OH/PA/ME-2 close race in WI/CO/ME(Statewide) PA: TRUMP 47.0% | Hillary 46.9% OH: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 45.2% FL: TRUMP 48.2% | Hillary 46.7% NC: TRUMP 47.6% | Hillary 47.2% IA: TRUMP 46.3% | Hillary 44.8% NV: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 45.7% WI: TRUMP 44.8% | Hillary 47.3% CO: TRUMP 44.9% | Hillary 47.0% MI: TRUMP 44.0% | Hillary 48.6% VA: TRUMP 43.6% | Hillary 48.9% GA: TRUMP 47.1% | Hillary 47.0% AZ: TRUMP 49.9% | Hillary 42.0% ME: TRUMP 43.1% | Hillary 46.9% ME-2: TRUMP 48.9% | Hillary 41.1% MN: TRUMP 42.7% | Hillary 48.2% NH: TRUMP 42.4% | Hillary 48.8% OR: TRUMP 40.9% | Hillary 49.0% DE: TRUMP 43.3% | Hillary 50.4% Yeah, no. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ebsy on November 04, 2016, 12:45:22 PM These are not actual polls.
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Hammy on November 04, 2016, 12:47:17 PM These are not actual polls. What is it and why is it in the polling thread? Either way they seem contrary to literally everything else coming out in some states. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 11:44:31 AM https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
Clinton's lead back up to 4.6 in YouGov's national survey (which is an actual poll, unlike modeled state numbers): Clinton 48.2 (+0.8 ) Trump 43.7 (-0.8 ) Johnson 4.1 (+0.0) Stein 1.9 (-0.1) "Our election model includes 78512 interviews and has been updated with 7695 new interviews in the past 24 hours. It represents YouGov's best assessment of the current state of the race." Full methodology: https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/ Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on November 06, 2016, 11:48:03 AM These are not actual polls. What is it and why is it in the polling thread? Either way they seem contrary to literally everything else coming out in some states. Subsamples of a national poll. Not the same thing. Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 11:50:37 AM EV prediction and trend:
() Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2016, 11:52:29 AM IT'S A CLINTON SURGE FOLKS!
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Person Man on November 06, 2016, 11:55:47 AM Where's StatesPoll, his unskewing, and gifs of Christie doing the Truffle Shuffle now?
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: OneJ on November 06, 2016, 12:53:14 PM #BattleGroundMS! 😊 (Lol)
Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 12:56:24 PM Where's StatesPoll, his unskewing, and gifs of Christie doing the Truffle Shuffle now? Title: Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 01:00:31 PM YouGov has some odd numbers.
They show GA and IA with slight lead for her. |