Talk Elections

HRC: 49
DJT: 38
GJ: 7
JS: 3

SENATE:
Bennet: 53
Glenn: 35


https://t.co/s2NLUflhcI

Colorado is pretty much done and Trump is wasting his time there

What a relief!  Looks like we can take this one off the map.

Son of bitch!

We take you now to a live shot of Tender Branson:

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Looking pretty safe.

Looks like #BattlegroundColorado is officially over.

Don't worry, I don't sweat.

It has only 5°C outside ...

6 weeks out and he's down by double digits. That's pretty damning.

What do we think CO's PVI is this year? This implies a mid-to-high single digit lead for Clinton nationally no? As in, more than the 4-5% we saw right after the debate.

Great honor from the highest state!

Clinton's favorables aren't good (37/51) but Trump's are horrid in comparison (29/63).

In fact, Colorado is the tipping point state according to 538's all 3 models. Not  that I buy that.

5 weeks out. Actually earlier than that in Colorado since they are a mail-voting state and they start voting in a couple of weeks

Amazing numbers.  Happy to see it.
Also love the double pun here.

Beautiful FF state Colorado!

It's actually 5 weeks now.

Wow, looks like we can bring back the "TRUMP CANT WIN COLORDAO! OLOLOLO!" meme.

Wow, even worse then I predicted. Once again Donnie has no path to win.

YOWZA!!!  Great poll!

Confirmed GOP mole Nate Silver gonna be all like...

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I can never tell if your serious.

F$#% yeah.

New Poll: Colorado President by Monmouth University on 2016-10-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820161002102)

Summary: D: 49%, R: 38%, I: 10%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_CO_100316)

Wow. Impressive.

No chance they lose Texas.

Dopey fraud Nate Silver will probably find some way to unskew this down to Clinton +5 or 6 though.

Die Freiwal Leben!

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Fantastic poll!  Tax Dodger McPorn Star knows he's doomed, so he's going all out like John Spencer in the 2006 New York Senate race.

This election has been a disaster from start to finish with a few periods that seemed to give me false hope (notably Iowa and "Hillary's Bad Week".  It seems like Trump might not recover from that debate.

As a German-speaker I need to correct you: "Die Firewall lebt !"

As I've been arguing on this forum, watch for the enormous education gap come election day. Any state with a highly educated and/or high minority population will show a very strong performance for Clinton. Colorado is one of the most educated states in the nation, up there with Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont (among others). Trump can kiss this state goodbye. Watch for new polls showing a strong Clinton performance in North Carolina and Georgia as well. Trump has even further alienated the White, College educated population and the defections will be serious.

There will also be a massive urban/rural divide, much like we saw it in the Austrian Presidential runoff ...

Dont worry Trumpkins.. the joint Dave Matthews and Tim Kaine appearance next week should get this within single digits.

2 weeks until ballots are mailed out to every registered voter in the state.

Colorado was the tipping-point state in 2012.

While that's true, it's also problematic to phrase it in those terms. Undeniably the overwhelming majority of rural areas across America have a very White, uneducated population. However, there are rural areas with high numbers of minorities (Hispanics in Texas and New Mexico, African Americans in the Southeast) and even some with high numbers of college educated Whites (Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, parts of Upstate New York). So in those rural areas, it will be Democratic. Conversely, we could see blue collar urban areas swinging hard for Trump, such as Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Green Bay, and Grand Rapids. Characterizing it as an urban/rural divide simply isn't accurate as it portrays the conflict as one of urbanity, rather than more accurately as one of educational attainment and minority population.

I'm betting PA trends at least 0.02% more towards the Republicans than Colorado does this election cycle compared to 2012. Do you disagree? :P

is monmouth any good in CO?

if yes, one more of those from NM or MI/PA and i am going to feel much better.

I doubt we see an Akin effect even with how terrible Trump is.

Well, he's already damn near lost his mind, as one junky poll out of NM now has him jumping out of bed at 6am to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/

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HEELED.

The last poll was taken from 7/9 to 7/12, with a result of Clinton +13.

Now the result is Clinton +11.

After all the drama that happened since then, this state is basically back to square one and can be classified as "Safe D".

There's nothing wrong with jumping out of bed at 6AM to write #HotTakey opinion pieces about incredibly implausible scenarios !

BIGOT.

99.9% of posters here do it.

Why are you feeling the need to defend Mr. Silver's deteriorating mental state? 

Not surprising since it's from Monmouth. They had Clinton +13 in July, so Trump somehow improved....

Clinton 49% (+1)
Trump 38% (+3)
Johnson 7% (+2)
Stein 3% (--)
Other 0% (-3)
Undecided 3% (-4)

At the time, that Monmouth poll was considered a bit of an outlier (in fact, I think it's the best CO result she's ever had).  There really aren't enough data points to say; we need more CO polls.

We have a second poll now with Clinton +11 from Keating

Now Atlas is leaping from "OMG Hillary is in trouble!" to "LOL Trump doesn't want to win, he was doomed from the start" on the basis of one state poll?

EDIT:


Now we're getting somewhere.

Nate has this poll in his model now, FWIW.  Trump's chances in CO before and after:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0%

Still doesn't have the Keating poll.  He rates them a B, with no bias either way.

Now with Keating included:

Polls-plus: 33.8% -> 30.3% -> 27.8%
Polls-only: 31.5% -> 27.6% -> 25.3%
Now-cast: 28.2% -> 22.0% -> 18.9%

Which moves Pennsylvania to the tipping point state.

I have a feeling our TP will be either Pennsylvania, Florida, or Michigan.

What about Wisconsin ? (Maybe)

Given that the Clinton campaign is only spending significant amounts of advertising money in seven states-- FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA-- one of those seven will almost certainly be the tipping point state.

So PA is my first guess for tipping point state, followed by NH.

Wisconsin will be to the left of Michigan, for the first time since (I believe) 1988.  It could be a tipping point, as could NH, VA, ME, NC, or NV, but I don't see these as likely as PA, FL, and MI.

Having only 10 EVs also makes it less likely.

I do wonder why Wisconsin seems to be so strongly in her camp.  Perhaps Ted Cruz's victory there was somehow illuminating?  I always thought Wisconsin was rather conservative outside of the major cities and it's certainly lily-white enough where you think Trump would be doing very well there. 

Wisconsin Republicans really don't like Trump, and Wisconsin Democrats like Hillary well enough.

Also, WCWs in Wisconsin (and Minnesota) have stuck with the Democratic Party when they abandoned it elsewhere.  This is why WI was among the Dukakis Five.  Wisconsin has been a focal point for right-wing union busting, and labor Democrats still have a lot of solidarity as a result.

If someone like Mike Pence were heading the ticket, however, WI would stand a good chance of flipping.

Good. This is the kind of results we need.

This is the first batch of polls I've seen marked upward for Clinton and not downward in quite a while. That debate performance really is shaking up the model in a very satisfying way.

Better than mine, directly after the Access Hollywood tapes. :P

^ Well, you were both correct in explaining what should have happened.

And to be frank, it's why I get a bit pissed off at the Monday morning quarterbacking. It was always reasonable to assume she was far ahead. It's what the data showed and what common sense dictated, at least up until Comey's October Surprise when things got hazy. So given all this, I don't think you can really blame them for not seeing the need to shake up their strategy. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but... you don't have hindsight when you're in the thick of it, and most "evidence" suggested her strategy was getting the job done. Her enthusiasm registered as on par with Trump's, she was winning everywhere she needed and then some, and the senate definitely looked like it would flip.

It wasn't the case. Were she and her team expected to be magical?

wrong