Talk Elections

46% Clinton
40% Trump
  9% Third Party
  1% Nobody
  1% Refused
  3% Undecided

The survey was conducted by the Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy (www.stockton.edu/hughescenter). Live interviewers on the Stockton University campus called both landlines and cell phones from Sept. 22-29, 2016. The poll was conducted with 638 adults who are likely voters in New Jersey. The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. MOE is higher for subsets. Data are weighted based on United States Census Bureau demographics for the New Jersey population.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Polling/2016%20Polling/NJ16%20poll%201%20WFs%20(2)(1).pdf

Tender, for the love of all that is holy stop putting political commentary into the header.

>University Poll

Tender must be sweating LIKE A DOG as his candidate, Trump, collapses nationally.

I guess Trump and Republicans must start campaigning at New Jersey.
Do it folks!!!

Ehh no, Trump is not my candidate. Once again, you are misstating things Lief.

NJ clearly not safe for Clinton. There are going to be some weird trends this year.

wow these cross tabs are not representative of NJ...blacks at only 10% of the electorate; men and women split at 50/50; democrats with an 8 point advantage in partisan ID...

Junk. Hillary will win NJ by double digits, though probably by a bit less than Obama did in 2012.

A poll in October showing a close race in New Jersey for a Republican candidate that eventually loses by double-digits? That NEVER happens. And a university poll to boot..... Color me shocked.

()

And before you say it, just because Stockton Obama/Romney had a better poll 2~ weeks into October doesn't mean anything. The point here is that Clinton is currently at a double-digit average on RCP, and while we don't have many polls for NJ besides that Emerson garbage, a poll showing her up by only 6 is not that surprising given how many polls Obama had showing him by a similar margin in 2012.

If we get numerous polls from different outfits over the next 3 weeks showing Clinton up by only single digits, then I'll worry.

NJ has a very large blue collar population that is incredibly pro-Trump. I put his odds of actually winning the state at roughly between 1-5%, but this is one of the states likeliest to be drastically closer than expected.

who care

Doesn't this happen every year

Hillary is collapsing!  Looks like Donald's 3 AM tweet attack is working.  At this rate Maryland will be in single digits, but the media won't report it!  Sad they are protecting Hillary!  #BattlegroundNewJersey #TrumpPence16 #MAGA

I could see racist eye-talians making it a bit closer than expected.

Where? Essex County (Nutley, Belleville, Bloomfield). Middlesex County (Fords, Jamesburg, Woodbridge)?

Quoted for truth....

NJ will swing a bit Republican this year, with Trump gains with WWC non-college types, although he'll probably underperform a bit in Bergen County with angry Independent/Republican white women but yeah this poll seems a bit junk.

If it gets close, The Boss needs to start doing a statewide free concert tour to reassure, and I'll create a separate thread to link to the youtube vids of all his concerts. ;)

Why did Bush do so well in NJ in 2004?

9/11....  47.4% in Bergen County

Just that?

I doubt the poll is accurate, as at least 2 other organizations conducted polls in mid-September with Clinton leading by +15 or higher.

Even if the poll is accurate, though, +6 is a solid lead for Clinton, especially this close to the election.

Please, please trump !
Please begin to waste .... I mean invest ..... money, time and resources in New Jersey.
It should be an easy win for your campaign.
LOL.
( 100% fools gold )

No... obviously a lot more than just that.

NJ has long been a Republican state in Presidential elections until recent election cycles. Moderate Republicans have historically done quite well in both statewide and national elections. (George Bush Sr won the State +13 in '88 with Bergen going +17 R).

Bill Clinton narrowly won NJ by only 2.5% in '92, despite losing Bergen County, but dramatically improved his performance in 1996 for a yuuge swing.

http://americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/new-jersey-likes-incumbents-learning-love-democrats

Additionally, Trump for whatever reason, has performed exceptionally well with Italian-American voters in the primaries. that represent almost 20% of the population of RI, CT, and NJ, as well as in heavily Italian-American neighborhoods and precincts within NY state.

9/11 did play a major factor no doubt, and in particular Bush won 51-48 among White Women and overall won the white vote 54-46, not to mention only losing Latinos 46-53 statewide, which most people don't realize has one of the highest raw numbers of Cuban Americans outside of Florida...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NJ/P/00/epolls.0.html

Needless to say, I have been predicting for awhile that Trump will overperform in places like RI and NJ contrary to statements that others have made on the forum....

Because that comment in and of itself wasn't racist or anything. Just sayin'

The quota of "close polls" has been met for the cycle. Emerson and this one.

That is, if you choose to discard the Google Consumer Survey polls, which have the race consistently within the MOE.

Yes, and Wyoming is a tossup.

Clinton will do well in places like New Brunswick and Edison, but the turnout may be lower than it was for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Obama got 83% in New Brunswick in 2008 and 2012. John Kerry received 78.2% in 2004.

Where are the Cubans concentrated?

In New Jersey?  Union City and environs.

Wow.  You learn something new every day.

Inshallah the Alabaman Garrett will be defeated. Do you know he voted against the Confederate flag ban, and refused to give money to the RNCC because they supported gay GOP candidates (Tisei)?

Cut off the head of this Copperhead!

The last two New Jersey polls have Clinton +4 and +6.  Something is brewing in this country.  I think people are fed up with typical politicians and might roll the dice on Trump.

Junk poll. New Jersey is safe Democratic.

Junk Poll

Google Consumer Survey NJ Poll is much better and accurate.

New Jersey  Sep. 21-26    Google Consumer Surveys    605 LV  Hillary 38% TRUMP 36%
New Jersey  Sep. 14-20    Google Consumer Surveys    605 LV TRUMP 36% Hillary 36%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/#plus