Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: amdcpus on September 06, 2016, 05:18:16 AM



Title: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: amdcpus on September 06, 2016, 05:18:16 AM
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-holds-steady-against-trump-campaign-enters-final-weeks-poll-n642931

Clinton 48%
Trump 42%


Clinton 41%
Trump 37%
Johnson 12%
Stein 4%


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 05:35:39 AM
That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.

Yup, the electorate isn't going to be R+4. Even in 2004 the electorate was even, in the other elections since 1992 more Democrats voted


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Person Man on September 06, 2016, 05:43:12 AM
That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.

Yup, the electorate isn't going to be R+4. Even in 2004 the electorate was even, in the other elections since 1992 more Democrats voted
When was the last GE that had a Republican electorate?


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 06, 2016, 05:46:30 AM
Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 06, 2016, 05:48:31 AM
The race has stabilized. Clinton slipped a little because the Democrats' enthusiasm subsided due to summer doldrums, and because Trump largely avoided big controversies like the ones with judge Curiel and the Khans.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 06, 2016, 05:48:50 AM
and that's as close as it has ever been 1976 and on, I couldn't find anything pre-1976.....


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 06, 2016, 05:59:18 AM
Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the GOP has made is thinking 2004 was some kind of default.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 07:03:49 AM
That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.
Please, stop it. It is normal.

When the race was about Clinton +9, we got polls Clinton +12-14 and polls showing her up 5-7.

Now, when the race is about +3, we'll get polls showing tie/Trump +1-3, but also polls showing Clinton +5-7.

It is normal.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Person Man on September 06, 2016, 07:10:18 AM
Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the GOP has made is thinking 2004 was some kind of default.
I'd believe that.

and that's as close as it has ever been 1976 and on, I couldn't find anything pre-1976.....

I am guessing you would have to go back to the Roaring 20s to find a composition like that.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 07:17:58 AM
Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

Never saw this coming...

Wait, my theory was that Dems liked only polls showing Clinton winning. Consistent!


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 07:19:06 AM
Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the Dems has made is thinking 2008-2012 was some kind of default.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Wells on September 06, 2016, 07:30:25 AM
Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

Wait, my theory was that Dems liked only polls showing Clinton winning. Consistent!

You think? Of course people like polls that show their candidate winning. Are we supposed to look at a Trump +2 poll and feel happy?

And like you're any better, especially when you defend good polls for Trump which are obviously junk. Everybody does it.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 07:48:32 AM
Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

NBC has nothing to do with this particular poll.

Wait, my theory was that Dems liked only polls showing Clinton winning. Consistent!

You think? Of course people like polls that show their candidate winning. Are we supposed to look at a Trump +2 poll and feel happy?

And like you're any better, especially when you defend good polls for Trump which are obviously junk. Everybody does it.
I defend their trend, that was pretty much consistent. That's why I'm not surprised by new A polls now. And I am consistent. QU was bad when showed "Trump friendly" results, but once it showed "Clinton friendly", it became goog accoridng to some Dems. The same about PPP. Or ABC favorables (regards to Polnut).

I have always said, that LA Times have a bias of 3-6%.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Wells on September 06, 2016, 08:04:25 AM
Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

NBC has nothing to do with this particular poll.

What? This poll is NBC/SurveyMonkey.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 08:09:15 AM
Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

NBC has nothing to do with this particular poll.

What? This poll is NBC/SurveyMonkey.
Who did this poll? Survey Monkey. NBC published.
NBC A- rating has nothing to do with it.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal has A-.

By the way, this poll is among RV, what can explain a little bit of difference.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 11:20:38 AM
Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: afleitch on September 06, 2016, 11:23:37 AM
Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 11:29:16 AM
Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
It depends on what your POV is on the LV screen. Obviously, that's evolving right now. But you'd think Survey Monkey would start employing their own model at some point.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: afleitch on September 06, 2016, 11:35:06 AM
Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
It depends on what your POV is on the LV screen. Obviously, that's evolving right now. But you'd think Survey Monkey would start employing their own model at some point.

So why roll it out? There's no point in rushing out a model until you are confident in it. Gallup stopped polling because they f-cked up their own LV model despite polling tens of thousands of voters.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 11:50:49 AM
Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
It depends on what your POV is on the LV screen. Obviously, that's evolving right now. But you'd think Survey Monkey would start employing their own model at some point.

So why roll it out? There's no point in rushing out a model until you are confident in it. Gallup stopped polling because they f-cked up their own LV model despite polling tens of thousands of voters.

It's post-Labor Day. It's time for these assumptions to be made.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Maxwell on September 06, 2016, 12:49:14 PM
this looks more realistic to me.


Title: Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 01:32:34 PM
That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.
Please, stop it. It is normal.

When the race was about Clinton +9, we got polls Clinton +12-14 and polls showing her up 5-7.

Now, when the race is about +3, we'll get polls showing tie/Trump +1-3, but also polls showing Clinton +5-7.

It is normal.

Nate Silver:

Quote
Clinton’s ahead, by a margin of about 3 percentage points in an average of national polls, or 4 points in our popular vote composite, which is based on both national polls and state polls. While the race has tightened, be wary of claims that the election is too close to call — that isn’t where the preponderance of the evidence lies, at least for the moment. If one candidate is ahead by 3 or 4 percentage points, there will be occasional polls showing a tied race or her opponent narrowly ahead, along with others showing the candidate with a mid- to high single-digit lead. We’ve seen multiple examples of both of those recently.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/)