Talk Elections

See  the post below as that one is more complete than what this one was but is largely a duplicate.

I have yet to put all that I want into my initial post in this thread.  I am putting new criteria for showing how well the two nominees are doing. In a binary race, leaders should be getting more than 45% of the likely vote very soon.

The respective Party Conventions are over, and the Parties and their nominees have largely established what their agendas are. They have left themselves little wiggle room. Polls from even during the last week are obsolete, and I am not going to use them unless I expect few polls from a State, and that those polls are not controversial. I question whether anyone can doubt the basic reality behind this poll:

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll

53% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
7% Johnson (L)

http://newsok.com/article/5511779  

Another old state poll that should create no controversies:

Alabama, which will likely be one of Trump's best states:

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/


These two stick as even a recent poll of any swing state or even a state polled often that has no chance of going some other way (like California or New York) won't. I think that I will keep this one, too. We get few polls from Oklahoma. Quite possibly these will be the best two states for Donald Trump.

We will get plenty of polls of all states on the fringe of competitiveness very soon.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area:
CT: D5,6;4 MA: D14,4;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

I have more to post here. Please do not common until I have finished the task in this post.  

Go ahead and discuss.

Excellent work.

So let us suppose that early next week I get these polling results. These are all fictional, so I am not predicting their appearance or their results. Polls taken this weekend include:

Quinnipiac:

Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio  -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5

UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"

Michigan  -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14

NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:

Georgia -- Clinton 48  Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9

David DuKKKe for US Senate campaign:

Louisiana -- Trump 70, Clinton 15, Johnson 4


Loof-Lirpa Polling:

Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45

Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)

Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8

Research 2000:

Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7

Marquette University  Law School

Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11

PPP, North Carolina --

Clinton 47, Trump 45; Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 9

Marist

Connecticut -- Clinton 56 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35;  Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18

Selzer

Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 45,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson  11

Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Johnson lead
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30

WMUR-TV

New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45

Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:

Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42

National Right-to-Life Committee:


Massachusetts:

Clinton 51, Trump 46.

It's obvious that a high school lacks the professional competence necessary for conducting a poll. Research 2000 is a fraud. We can rule out polls involving the UAW, the NAACP, the front of the American Petroleum Institute (Big Oil), and the National Right-to-Life Committee for being associated with special interest groups or advocacy organizations. "Loof-Lirpa Polling" appears only on April Fool's Day. The University of Elkhart does not exist. David DuKKKe really is running for a Senate seat, so one can expect bias.   The others are good.

So what are we left with?


Quinnipiac:

Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio  -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5

UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"

Michigan  -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14

NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:

Georgia -- Clinton 48  Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9

Loof-Lirpa Polling:

Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45

Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)

Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8

University of Elkhart:

Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5

David DuKKKe for US Senate campaign:

Louisiana -- Trump 70, Clinton 15, Johnson 4

Research 2000:

Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7

Marquette University  Law School

Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11

PPP, North Carolina --

Clinton 45, Trump 47; Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 9

Marist

Connecticut -- Clinton 54 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35;  Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18

Selzer

Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 43,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson  11
Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Trump 52 Clinton 45
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30

WMUR-TV

New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45

Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:

Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42

University of Elkhart:

Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5

National Right-to-Life Committee:

Massachusetts:

Clinton 51, Trump 46.

Add the Alabama and Oklahoma polls.

 

()


Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
47-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
47-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

All else is considered a tie.

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color.

Dave Debnam at PPP beats me to it.

Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 30, 2016
INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312
IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL
 QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL
information@publicpolicypolling.com,

Clinton Image Improves Following Conventions; Leads Trump by 5

Raleigh, N.C. –


PPP's new national poll, taken completely after both party's conventions, finds that Hillary Clinton emerged with a much more positive image than she had a month ago. Donald Trump
meanwhile is just as unpopular as he was before the conventions. Clinton's net favorability improved by 9 points over the last month. She's still not popular, with a -6 net favorability at 45/51, but it's a good deal better than the -15 spread she had at 39/54 a month ago. Th
e gains are particularly attributable to Democrats increasing in their enthusiasm for her, going from giving her a 76/15 rating to an 83/12 one. Trump, on the other hand, is at a -22 net favorability with 36% of voters seeing him favorably to 58 % with a negative one. That's barely
changed at all from the 35/58 standing we found for him in late June.

Clinton leads the race with 46% to 41% for Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head just between Clinton and Trump, Clinton hits 50% and leads Trump 50-45. A month ago Clinton led 45-41 in the full field contest and 48-44 in the head to head so there hasn't been much change. But not much change is good news for Clinton. We've been writing for months that this race is shaping up pretty similarly both nationally and at the state level to the margins Barack Obama won by in 2012- not a huge landslide by any means, but a solid victory. The conventions have passed without any change to that big picture,
and that leaves Clinton as the favorite going into the final three months.

CBS, nationwide:


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump

First post-conventions poll... PPP, Pennsylvania:

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-has-narrow-lead-in-pennsylvania.html#more

A Suffolk University poll showed Hillary Clinton up 9 last week? Outlier? In the Suffolk Poll, too early for use here, incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) was down by 7, which is new territory for him. Is that an outlier, or is Donald Trump showing signs of taking some Republican incumbents in the House and Senate down with him?

Oddly this poll shows Hillary Clinton up by a smaller margin in Pennsylvania than she was in a nationwide poll by PPP.

...With one poll, Pennsylvania at R+1 in contrast to a poll conducted in much the same time nationwide (Hillary Clinton up 5) suggests that Hillary Clinton is gaining elsewhere, most likely in states that Barack Obama barely won (Florida or Ohio), barely lost (North Carolina, the only such state), or states that were Obama losses on the fringe of competitiveness in 2012 (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri).   

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

(none yet)


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Two polls from Georgia, which will require an average, and one from Nevada. That's an unlikely combination.

Georgia -- Landmark Communications, Rosetta Stone, WSB-TV (ABC-2, Atlanta): a tie!

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/clinton-trump-deadlocked-in-latest-georgia-poll/415167092

45% Clinton
45% Trump
4% Johnson
1% Stein

Georgia, SurveyUSA, WXIA-TV (NBC-11, Atlanta)

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-narrow-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia/285416138
Trump 46
Clinton 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Whites: 64% Trump, 23% Clinton (+41)
Blacks: 80% Clinton, 14% Trump (+66)
Latinos: 53% Clinton, 25% Trump (+28)

18-34: Clinton 49%, Trump 25% (+24)
35-49: Trump 48%, Clinton 40% (+8)
50-64: Clinton 47%, Trump 46% (+1)
65+: Trump 60%, Clinton 33% (+27)

18-49: Clinton 43%, Trump 39% (+4)
50+: Trump 51%, Clinton 42% (+9)

Republicans: Trump 88%, Clinton 6%
Democrats: Clinton 96%, Undecided 3%

Rasmussen, Nevada:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/new-ktnvrasmussen-poll-shows-post-dnc-narrow-lead-for-hillary-clinton-over-donald-trump?mc_cid=36c3591d7c&mc_eid=dcfe8daff0

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 10
Stein 4

Conducted from 7/29-7/31. 750 LV.

Go from "likely voters" to "real voters" in November, and the Democrats will actually pick up far more votes than Republicans will. At this stage, if Republicans are tied or behind in a statewide race or a Presidential race in Nevada or Pennsylvania, then they are in deep trouble. One can attribute many surprising successes of Democrats to the Reid machine in Greater Las Vegas, but that machine will still be in operation in November. Democratic GOTV drives win in Pennsylvania in Presidential years and usually falter in midterm years.

My system has this as a tie in the binary race because the leader does not crack 43%. It's a lead of 1% for Clinton in a three-way race, and it is possible to win a three-way race 41-40.

This is a swing from a Rasmussen poll within the last two weeks from a 5% advantage for Donald Trump. Like or loathe Rasmussen polling, this is apples-to-apples because it is the same pollster. A 6% swing is likely to be significant. 

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

(none yet)


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Tennessee. May be dated:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/02/poll-trump-still-leading-clinton-tennessee/87950854/

Full results (with leaners, among RV):

53% Trump
35% Clinton

47% Trump
30% Clinton
  7% Johnson
  3% Stein
  6% Someone else
  7% Undecided

Favourable Ratings (RV):

47-49 Trump
32-64 Clinton

Bill Clinton will be the last Democratic nominee for President to win Tennessee for a very long time.

Arizona, Predictive Strategies (new pollster)


Clinton 45
Trump 42
Johnson 4
Stein 1

Undecided 8

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-34549BEAED04456D

It meets the minimal standards.  Hillary Clinton at 45% and not leading by more than the margin of era, I must treat this one as a tie.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

(none yet)


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

I expect lots of polls to pop up tomorrow. They usually do on Wednesday.

They did, but not the ones (Marist, PPP, and Quinnipiac) that I expected. They might not be my favorites, but they have some value. Two of the states are critical for Republicans, and the only good news for them is that they have no chance of losing or failing to pick up a Senate seat in Michigan. There simply is no Senate race involving Michigan this year.

Michigan, Glengariff, Detroit News:

Clinton 41 - Trump 32 - Johnson 8 - Stein 3


 I see no binary matchup. Today's map understates Trump's problems with Michigan. I'm using the the four-way poll of Michigan, so a poll showing a binary matchup in Michigan should supplant this one instead of being averaged.    The GOP is having trouble with southwestern Michigan, usually a safe haven for Republicans in the House. Gerrymandering in an effort to dilute Democratic votes in House races may backfire this year.

*******************


WBUR-TV (New Hampshire Public Television), MassInc

7/29 thru 8/1

Clinton: 47
Trump: 32
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Clinton:51
Trump: 34

629 LV

Also, Hassan now leads Ayotte by 50-40.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll

*************
Pennsylvania -- Franklin and Marshall College:

Four-way:

Clinton 49
Trump  34
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Two-way:
Clinton 49 - Trump 38...

Katie McGinley seems to have a slight edge, if well within the margin of error, against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey. If Donald Trump really cared about the Republican majority in the US Senate, then he would stay away from such states as Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Toomey will have to win re-election on his own in what is beginning to look like a disastrous year for Republicans in the Presidential race.  
This is not my favorite pollster, and I really have to average this one with the pollby PPP.  
 


Enough said.
*******************


WBUR-TV (New Hampshire Public Television), MassInc

7/29 thru 8/1

Clinton: 47
Trump: 32
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Clinton:51
Trump: 34

629 LV

Also, Hassan now leads Ayotte by 50-40.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll

*************
Pennsylvania -- Franklin and Marshall College:

Four-way:

Clinton 49
Trump  34
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Two-way:
Clinton 49 - Trump 38...

Katie McGinley seems to have a slight edge, if well within the margin of error, against incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey. If Donald Trump really cared about the Republican majority in the US Senate, then he would stay away from such states as Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Senator Toomey will have to win re-election on his own in what is beginning to look like a disastrous year for Republicans in the Presidential race.  
This is not my favorite pollster, and I really have to average this one with the poll by PPP.

Addenda: Kentucky, Harper Polling (Republican pollster) -- Trump up 13, but nothing says how he is up 13. Most likely something like 54-41.

FLORIDA, Suffolk University

Clinton 43
Trump 39
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Head to Head
Clinton 48
Trump 42

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_4_2016_marginals.pdf



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color. That could also compel me to introduce a new format.


Three-way race, and so far I have no idea how I can change this to be more effective: On second thought, I will simply start over with the three-way race. I have the old polls on another thread anyway.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

PPP polls North Carolina this weekend.

This comes off as a tie as a binary result, which is about what I would get with the average with the other two polls of Georgia. Georgia has not reverted to what it was when Jimmy Carter was the best-known political figure from Georgia... but it could get results like that should Donald Trump prove a disaster as a candidate for President and take lots of Republicans down with him.

Hillary Clinton can obviously win nationwide without Georgia. If she wins Georgia then she is at least in the territory of Obama 2008 or the two wins by her husband.    

If Gary Johnson gets 11% of the vote in Georgia, then Hillary Clinton can win with 44% of the vote. I'm guessing that Gary Johnson is picking up some of the conservative-leaning, well-educated white suburbanites who ordinarily vote for the Republican nominee.  


Another Michigan poll:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/08/05/poll-clinton-opens-up-11-point-lead-trump-michigan/88293726/
http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

Clinton 46
Trump 36
Undecided 17

Clinton 43
Trump 32
Johnson 8
Stein 3

Clinton unfavorable 51
Trump unfavorable 63

Whites
Clinton 38
Trump 36

...When a Republican is losing the white vote in Michigan, he's doing very badly.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

()


Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

Another Georgia poll from JMC Enterprises (whatever that is):

   
GA-JMC Enterprises: Clinton +7
« on: Today at 08:53:24 am »    

Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

GOP disaster in the making.

Utah, Dan Jones --

37% Trump (R)
25% Clinton (D)
16% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

21% Other/Undecided

But this includes polling from during the Republican National Convention.  I cannot use this, but if I did I would have to show a tie based upon my rules here. Dan Jones has been an active pollster and has gotten capricious results -- is Utah becoming capricious in its voting this year?

Donald Trump should be blowing Hillary Clinton away here with something like 6o-30 by now if he were a normal Republican nominee.

Kentucky, Google poll:

Donald Trump (R): 41%
Hillary Clinton (D): 25%

The survey was conducted from Tuesday, August 2 to Thursday, August 4.

http://www.lex18.com/story/32707654/babbage-cofounder-poll-trump-and-paul-holding-commanding-leads-in-ky-races

Might have a bias toward people with computer access, thus perhaps undersampling the very poor white population of southeastern Kentucky. I see no reason for anyone to believe that Hillary Clinton will win Kentucky.

Illinois:


Probably close to being right.

Pennsylvania, Susquehanna (usually a Republican-leaning pollster):

Clinton 47
Trump 37

https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/toplines-statewideabc27-aug16.pdf

Doesn't change anything.


Missouri, Remington (R)

Trump 44
Clinton 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

https://www.stlmag.com/news/in-missouri-voter-polls-president-governor/

Comes off as a tie. Possible Republican disaster in the making.

The big one -- North Carolina, PPP:

43% Clinton (D)
41% Trump (R)
7% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

47% Clinton (D)
46% Trump (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-leads-in-nc-for-first-time-since-march.html

Except perhaps for South Carolina, Hillary Clinton could win every state on the I-95 corridor.

...In case someone polls Colorado, Ohio, or Wisconsin, I will could a new map tomorrow.





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

I expect to see lots of polls on Wednesday.

Which do I most want to see?

Ohio
Colorado
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
North Carolina (I will see that one) -- Tuesday!
Nebraska
Maine
Texas
Indiana

Hold on. I have a bunch of states to add to this polling thread.

Kansas, Survey USA:

Trump 44 (-3)
Clinton 39 (+3)
Johnson 8 (-)
Undecided 9 (-)

Numbers compared to their July poll.

http://ksn.com/2016/08/09/ksn-news-poll-shows-donald-trump-losing-ground-in-kansas/

Ominously weak.

Quinnipiac: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

FL: Clinton 46 – Trump 45 (+1)  
OH: Clinton 49 – Trump 45 (+4)
PA: Clinton 52 – Trump 42 (+10)

FL: Clinton 43 - Trump 43 - Johnson 6 - Stein 3 (Tie)
OH: Clinton 44 - Trump 42 - Johnson 8 - Stein 3 (Clinton +2)
PA: Clinton 48 - Trump 39 - Johnson 7 - Stein 3 (Clinton +9)

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2371

Ohio is apparently not Trump country.

Marist.

Iowa: Clinton 41 - Trump 37  (Clinton +4)
Ohio: Clinton 43 - Trump 38 (Clinton +5)
Pennsylvania:  Clinton 48 - Trump 37 (Clinton +11)

Iowa: Clinton 35 - Trump 35 - Johnson 12 - Stein 6 (TIE)
Ohio: Clinton 39 - Trump 35 - Johnson 12 - Stein 4 (Clinton +4)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 45 - Trump 36 - Johnson 9 - Stein 3 (Clinton +9)
 
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541

One more. Marquette University Law School, Wisconsin

Among registered voters:

46% Clinton (D)
36% Trump (R)

42% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Among likely voters:

52% Clinton (D)
37% Trump (R)

47% Clinton (D)
34% Trump (R)
9% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

Done Aug. 4-7

Going with the Likely Voter screen.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

90% of polling irregularities this year are explained by this map

()

(KS, NV, ME, UT, VA, GA)

I expect big gains for Hillary Clinton in Colorado, Nebraska, and Texas as well.

Donald Trump stands to lose states that Republicans just do not lose.
 

South Carolina, PPP:


Still looks legit. Pretty weak for Donald Trump. The incumbent Republican Senator is safe enough that Hillary Clinton is likely to look elsewhere for opportunities for a campaign.

Texas, KTVT-TV (CBS 11, Dallas/Fort Worth)


Rather weak for a Republican nominee. A mediocre Republican nominee should be blowing this race away by 14% or more. Good place-holder until PPP gives its poll of Texas next week. I notice that the Dallas-Fort Worth (with huge numbers of college-educated white people as well as ethnic minorities) area is for Clinton... the largest reservoir of potential swing voters who could go from Romney to Clinton is of course in Texas -- but probably not enough to swing Texas this time. No mention of Third Parties.

Florida and New Hampshire, PPP (for an anti-gun group)



Maine, Gravis (commissioned by right-wing Breitbart)

46% Clinton
36% Trump


http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/11/breitbartgravis-poll-maine-voters-support-clinton-46-trump-36

...Not even right-wing Breitbart can sugarcoat this result enough. Maine's Second Congressional District is a bit more R  than the First Congressional District -- but not enough to make the Second District a possible win for Trump. 


Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

Marist, NBC News.  

CO:
Clinton 46%, Trump 32%
Clinton 41%, Trump 29%, Johnson 15%, Stein 6%

FL:
Clinton 44%, Trump 39%
Clinton 41%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%

NC:
Clinton 48%, Trump 39%
Clinton 45%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 2%

VA:
Clinton 46%, Trump 33%
Clinton 43%, Trump 31%, Johnson 12%, Stein 5%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-clinton-running-table-key-battlegrounds-n629136

Florida and North Carolina are averages. These Marist polls indicate that third-party candidates are becoming more interesting.

Indiana, Howey Politics, WTHR-TV (NBC 13, Indianapolis) -- tie!

Even more astonishing, informed and reliable sources tell Howey Politics Indiana that an internal Gregg poll has Clinton and Trump tied in Indiana at 44%. After endorsing U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in the Indiana primary only to watch Trump nail him 53-36%, the specter of Pence losing his home state in what would likely be a 50-state blowout is a career-jarring prospect. Trump seemed to acknowledge a “tremendous problem” in Utah. He was asked by CNBC how he planned to reverse the trend, Trump responded, saying he simply planned to do “the same thing I’m doing right now. At the end, it’s either going to work, or I’m going to, you know, I’m going to have a very, very nice, long vacation.” 

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

()

New York State, Siena (as if there were a mystery this year)

2-way:

57% Clinton
27% Trump
  3% Other (vol.)

4-way:

50% Clinton
25% Trump
  9% Johnson
  6% Stein
  1% Other (vol.)

https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/clinton-expands-lead-over-trump-to-30-points


Washington State, Elway:

Clinton 45
Trump 24
Johnson 7
Stein 4

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3013245-Elway-Poll-Governor-President-081516.html

...45-21 with a Likely Voter screen that in most elections favors Republican candidates for just about any office. I'm going with that.

...Clinton+Johnson+Stein vote adds up to 54, so this lead is practically insurmountable.  

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  

New Hampshire is an average.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

DC might be the case in which the third-Party support appears stronger than support for Donald Trump... but I wonder if any state will end up giving more support to third-Party nominees than to Donald Trump? I'm guessing Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Maryland as possibilities.

The simplest explanation that I can come up with.

The "Blue firewall", 1992-2012, in 2016:


()

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 242
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     0
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       0
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0 
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

I rely upon post-convention polls for the other maps in this thread, and with those polls and tracking polls I have a well-formed shape  of the 2016 Presidential election. Polls from before the Party conventions do not appear here, but none showed any sign of Hillary Clinton faring appreciably worse than Obama in 2008.

Add the states that have gone once for any Republican nominee since 1992 (IA, NH, NM):

()

(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics; it has offered little polling data). Iowa seems to be trouble for Hillary Clinton.

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 245
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     5
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       6
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0 
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

Add Colorado and Virginia, which so far show decisive leads for Clinton:

()

(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation) 267
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)     5
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    1
Effective tie   (white)                       6
Barely Trump (20% saturation)       0
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)       0 
Strong Trump (60% saturation)      0

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida.

Only one state, but this one is 'yuge':

TEXAS

PPP.

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 50%

Clinton - 38%
Trump - 44%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%
McMullin - 0%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_TX_81616.pdf

A few points:

1. With voters under 65, Hillary Clinton is in fact ahead 49-45. Trump does get elderly voters 63-33,  which bodes ill for Republicans in Texas in forthcoming years. Of course, Texas is a retirement destination.

From PPP, because I can't really paraphrase it:



2. President Barack Obama has an approval rating of 42%, which is very good for an incumbent Democrat in a deep-red (atlas blue) state. That's close enough to even that in a hypothetical race for a third term the President would barely lose Texas 48-46.

4. For Hillary Clinton to win Texas she will need even more of a Trump implosion. Trump supporters in Texas might might best fit the adjectives "old", "white", "under-educated", and "cranky".   

I suspect that there will be more detail on this state from PPP. Texas would be within striking distance if Hillary Clinton had nothing better to do. The only reason for her to campaign in Texas would be to help Democrats win some House seats from Republicans with shaky holds on their seats. 

Considering that John McCain won Texas by 12% in 2008 in a marginal landslide and Mitt Romney won the state by 16% in a solid win for Obama... this result bodes ill for the Trump campaign nationwide.

I have suggested that if Hillary Clinton should do better this year than Barack Obama did  in 2008, then Texas has by far the largest number of swing voters, that is Romney-to-Clinton. Maybe not enough to swing the state...

Don't be unduly surprised if polls  from the High Plains states from Kansas to North Dakota show those electorally-small states trending heavily toward Hillary Clinton.

Texas is not in any single region and it isn't even a region unto itself. Part of it is Southwestern (El Paso having more in common with Albuquerque than with other giant Texas cities), part of it Dixie (East Texas), parts unique to itself (the triangle containing the urban centers of Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston) and perhaps the Lower Rio Grande Valley and such a city as Corpus Christi. There's the Permian Basin... and northwestern Texas including the Panhandle  seems much like Kansas or Nebraska. 

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  

New Hampshire is an average.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

Mitchell Polling, Michigan

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 5%

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/elections-2016/192382552-story

Big more from the previous poll by this firm of Michigan. Their last poll in Michigan was Clinton 40% Trump 34% with 27% undecided in mid-July, for comparison. Numbers add up to 101%... are there really negative two percent undecided?

Florida, Monmouth University.

Clinton: 48
Trump: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 1

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp

Averaged with another poll.

Mississippi -- by a Republican pollster, so take heed of that. As the old saying goes, beggars can't be choosers.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MagellanBR-YP_Poll_Toplines_081616.pdf

Trump - 54%
Clinton - 39%

Trump - 52%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 3%
Stein - 0%

Probably close to the racial divide.

Mississippi recently had the highest rate of convictions of politicians for corruption in America, probably reflecting the political culture. The Mississippi Democratic Party is basically the Black People's Party and the Republican Party is basically the White People's Party, and people vote close to the ethnic divide. This allows big-city machine-boss politics even in hick towns and the flourishing of patronage.

So what do people usually do with a corrupt or incompetent politician when he is up for re-election? If he can't be defeated in a primary challenge. then the solution is to vote for the fellow from the other party. So if you are white and have a corrupt or incompetent white Republican mayor, you would reasonably vote for a black Democrat  who promises reform, right? (Invert "black" and "white" for the obvious extension). Not in Mississippi, though, where people seem to vote "race".

Wrong. The crooks get entrenched, so the cronyism survives. Is it any surprise that the government vehicles, all purchased without haggling or bidding, come from a dealership owned by a relative of the politician?

...I am guessing that unlike Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, or Texas, Mississippi has little economic activity that attracts educated Northerners who might swing away from the GOP this year even if white. This is the state in which a college education is least valuable. Mississippi will be one of the most Republican-voting states this year.

Missouri, PPP.

Trump 45
Clinton 42

http://www.protectmofamilies.com/images/15290/Aug2016MissouriPresidentResultsPPP_PMF.pdf

It changes nothing.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  

New Hampshire is an average.



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

Missouri, PPP for a pro-union group. I can't use it.

Trump 45
Clinton 42

http://www.protectmofamilies.com/images/15290/Aug2016MissouriPresidentResultsPPP_PMF.pdf

Indiana, Monmouth:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Trump - 47%
Clinton - 36%
Johnson - 10%

Conducted August 13-16. 403 LV.

Stein isn't on the ballot here so that's why she's not listed I assume.

...could be a bit high for Trump. Republicans winning the Presidency are usually up 15% or more in Indiana.

Three by Quinnipiac:

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

These polls of likely voters were conducted from August 9-16.

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

Suffolk University -- Nevada

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/poll-presidential-senate-races-in-nevada-are-dead-heats

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 42%

I must treat it as a tie because Clinton is up 2% but with less than 45% of the vote. I do this with Nevada so that if I see a poll with Clinton up 44-42 in North Dakota I will not have to claim that such is a lead for her. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win Nevada, but she is not close to winning it yet in my book.

Georgia, WAGA-TV,  FoX 5 , Atlanta:

The toplines:

Clinton   43%(+2)
Trump   43%(-1)
Johnson   11% (+1)
Undecided   3%

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OS-GA-General-8.18.16.pdf

I have to treat this as a tie because it is a tie.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

My weekend projection:

()

(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation)  267
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)    49
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    39
Effective tie   (white)                     16
Barely Trump (20% saturation)     19
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)     44   
Strong Trump (70% saturation)     42

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida.

I just did. I also brought up some other states. I have some pre-Convention polls (actually during) in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma because those results are likely to stick.

The states in gray have no recent poll, and in view of the recent behavior of polls in Utah and the two unusually-close ones for the Presidency in Kansas and Texas (those are my 44 "weak Trump states" I have doubts about lots of states. If Kansas is up only 5 for Trump, then guess how silly it would be to assume that North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are "safe for Trump".  But the states in gray don't really matter except for a Senate seat.  States in which Hillary Clinton is up by double the usual margin of error put her very close to 270... and I am very cautious in putting New Mexico in the "Safe Clinton" category. New Mexico just does not get polled often.

Up 8 or more -- Clinton is at 267.
Up 4 or more -- Clinton is at 316.
Up at all -- Clinton is at 355.

Beyond that? Georgia would deliver her a win on the scale of Bill Clinton in the 1990s and just slightly bigger than Obama in 2008. 

Trump losing Kansas or Texas indicates a thorough collapse of his campaign.

()

Iowa a tie (it has been a statistical tie most of the year); Ohio is out of the margin of error this time, and to the wrong way for Donald Trump.

A Juneau newspaper published a poll of Alaska hither-to-unpublished from June showing Trump up only by 9 --  so I cannot use it. Alaska could be considerably closer than that.

Missouri. Monmouth University. Not by a special-interest group, I can use it.  

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_082316/

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 43%
Johnson - 8%

Still a tie by my reckoning because nobody is above 45%. and the margin is narrow. If Johnson can get 8% of the vote, then someone wins Missouri with 46% of the vote.  

Utah, PPP:

Trump: 39%
Clinton: 24%
Johnson: 12%
McMullin: 9%
Castle: 2%
Stein: 1%

Trump: 53%
Clinton: 33%

Really awful for a Republican nominee in Utah. Trump does utterly destroy Clinton in a binary race. Note that Clinton, Johnson, and McMullin combine for a bigger vote share than Trump. The pale shade for Donald Trump in a four-way race says all that one needs know about his pathetic, erratic campaign. Utah vot3ers are conservative -- but they are not stupid, and they are not crazy.


PPP, New Mexico (work in progress):

1,100 registered voters, Aug 19-21:

Clinton 40% (+9)
Trump 31%
Johnson 16%
Stein 4%

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/89809/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-nm-johnson-strong/

No binary matchup is offered, so I am not showing one. Take out Johnson and Stein, and Hillary Clinton gets half the total votes anyway. Gary Johnson will find New Mexico one of his strongest states as a true Favorite Son.  

South Carolina, Feldman Group (D):

Trump - 39%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - Unknown
Stein - Unknown

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 43%

*This poll was commissioned by the SC Democratic Party, and included 600 likely voters between August 18-21.

Partisan pollster, but a good one.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/new-poll-shows-clinton-trump-tied-in-red-sc-749547075645?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

It appears as a tie -- 45% with a 2% margin in the binary race, and an absolute tie in a three-way race. The Trump campaign is in deep trouble if it can't already crack 45% in South Carolina.




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

From CNN's house pollster:

Arizona:
Trump 43
Clinton 38
Johnson 12
Stein 4

North Carolina:
Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 11

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/24/politics/arizona-north-carolina-polls-trump-clinton/index.html


North Carolina, Monmouth:

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NC_082416/1% or 2% lead -- your choice.

Florida, for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 41%
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 9%
Someone Else 2%
Undecided 4%

Donald Trump 44%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Someone Else 7%
Undecided 5%

http://www.flchamber.com/politicians-parties-and-plaintiff-trial-lawyers-are-unknown-or-unliked-in-new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll/

If I exclude polls by unions I exclude those for industry groups and chambers of commerce. For a state polled as often as Florida I don't need any trash polls.

I must accept this one for Michigan.  It suggests that the natiowide race is tightening. It does not include a binary matchup between Trump and Clinton in Michigan. But the margin has gone from double-digit to high-single digits.

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/768839154163646465

Clinton: 44%
Trump: 37%
Johnson: 5%
Stein: 3%





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


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()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

My weekend projection (early morning, 8/27/2016)

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New Mexico has been polled for the first time in a long time, and the state is effectively out of range for Donald Trump. I consider at least 272 electoral votes out of range a meaningful contest at this stage in a Presidential race.

8% is not close.

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

8% is effectively out of range for peeling off a state from the Other Side with normal campaigning  even at its most intense.  Donald Trump now  needs miracles to have a chance now.

Monmouth University, Pennsylvania:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_083016/

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 40%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

There  are some polls by anentity called Emerson College, but they are screwey enough to be suspect.





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


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()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

We may be seeing a Trump charge now. What I first thought were anomalous polls may not be so anomalous.
WISCONSIN:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Some polls from Emerson College:

New York

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North Carolina

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Michigan

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Pennsylvania:

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Ohio:
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Arizona, Breitbart/Gravis:

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 40%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 1%

Poll was of 1,244 likely Arizona voters conducted on August 27th.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/31/exclusive-breitbartgravis-arizona-presidential-poll-trump-44-clinton-40-with-johnson-8-stein-1/

Also from Arizona:

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-73630F4BD52B12D8

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 1%

Conducted August 25-27. 728 LV. Rated C+ on 538.

Useless because it is a tie.



West Virginia:

I doubt that anyone can dispute this even if it is by an obscure pollster .

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()


Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


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()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

It may have.

A large number of polls from a group dedicated to raising the minimum wage. Even if they are compiled by PPP, a very good pollster, I can't use them.

Arizona (Trump +3): Trump 46, Clinton 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

Missouri (Trump +6): Trump 47, Clinton 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf

New Hampshire (Clinton +6): Clinton 46, Trump 40

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NHResults1.pdf

North Carolina (Clinton +1): Clinton 45, Trump 44

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCResults1.pdf

Ohio (Clinton +4): Clinton 46, Trump 42

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OhioResults1.pdf

Pennsylvania (Clinton +5): Clinton 48, Trump 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PAResults1.pdf

Wisconsin (Clinton +7): Clinton 48, Trump 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf

Should these be valid, then Donald Trump has no chance.

You are welcome to try to convince me to use these.

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed



Hardly consistent with a Trump charge.

Virginia, Emerson College polling:

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link. (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ce9f61436f9b420dbb5ef12240d1424a.pdf)


Extremely consistent with a Trump surge. But note an error -- "Green", and not "Stein" is mentioned. That might tempt me to call a foul.  Not using this.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()


Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Isn't it Trump with +18 lead in West Virginia?

Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

Democrats really messed up when they dominated politics in West Virginia. They failed to invest in the basics like schools and highways. Republicans get their chance in a state that had one resource (coal) for which to depend upon for the few above-average incomes that there were and upon coal miners for votes. Now Republicans get their chance.   

I am giving no weekend projection. We got a huge supply of polls by some entity relatively new to making projections of this election, and these all calibrate badly with what we have seen elsewhere. These, mostly by Emerson College, include polls for New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa... and they are English-only polls for land telephone lines only.

Millions have abandoned land phone lines, people stuck with them to a great extent elderly people who have trouble with the cell phone. English-only? Spanish speakers are more  likely to recognize polls by an English-language pollster as junk calls and not answer them. 

These are far out of line with the reality shown by WMUR-TV in New Hampshire, which shows Hillary Clinton still up by low double digits, and a poll in Kansas that shows Donald Trump up by 7%... and out of line with most national tracking polls.   In any event, PPP is polling Florida this weekend and it ordinarily does a very good job.

PPP did several polls on behalf of an entity that seeks to raise the minimum wage. This is a special-interest group, and I cannot use its polls even if I believe the methodology valid. 

So if Clinton were replaced with Joe Manchin, West Virginia would look like Kentucky rather than Pennsylvania?

What does the 7 in "18/7" indicate?  18 is the difference between 49 and 31, but what about 7.

I'm going to hazard a guess that the 7 represents undecideds.

Also, I think that WV is the wrong color :o shouldn't it be blue-40? or am I reading this wrong?

I think we need a new "post Labor Day polling" thread, which includes only polls done after Labor Day.

There are still many post-convention polls in there right now, which are outdated.

Yeah, pbrow, don't think WV should be red on that map...

Support for Gary Johnson.

I have called a foul for bad methodology, particularly for relying entirely upon landlines (skews elderly and thus pro-Trump).

I've never had a problem with Marquette University Law School or Monmouth University polling, so polling for Wisconsin stands as their average:


https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Link.

WMUR-TV. ABC-9, southern New Hampshire:

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)


(nothing changes here)

Clinton beats Trump 54-28 among NH females, she trails by 10 among men (35-45). NH will be the state with the most female Romney/Clinton voters.

Metro News, West Virginia:

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed

A new one for Alaska:

39% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

No binary poll, so I can't show that.

Clinton favorability: 27/65 (-38)
Trump favorability: 38/51 (-13)

http://midnightsunak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Memo-AK-Senator-Murkowski-Aug2016.pdf




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D11/12,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

Corrected.
Maybe next week. I intend to keep the polls for Alaska and West Virginia because those two states get polled rarely.

Oh, by the way -- Senator Lisa Murkowski is very safe.

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Link.

WMUR-TV. ABC-9, southern New Hampshire:

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)


(nothing changes here)

Clinton beats Trump 54-28 among NH females, she trails by 10 among men (35-45). NH will be the state with the most female Romney/Clinton voters.

Metro News, West Virginia:

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed

A new one for Alaska:

39% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

No binary poll, so I can't show that.

Clinton favorability: 27/65 (-38)
Trump favorability: 38/51 (-13)

http://midnightsunak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Memo-AK-Senator-Murkowski-Aug2016.pdf




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D11/12,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

YouGov/CBS -- Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Clinton 45, Trump 37 in PA
Clinton 46, Trump 42 in NC

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

Adding Johnson and Stein in for both states, it is 45-37-6-2 Clinton in PA and 46-42-4-2 Clinton in NC

...I expect more from this source. YouGov was excellent in 2012, a fairly good analogue for this Presidential election.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear


()


()


Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D11/12,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
















[/quote]

Some polls by PPP for a pro-labor group:

Arizona (Trump +3): Trump 46, Clinton 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

Missouri (Trump +6): Trump 47, Clinton 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf

New Hampshire (Clinton +6): Clinton 46, Trump 40

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NHResults1.pdf

North Carolina (Clinton +1): Clinton 45, Trump 44

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCResults1.pdf

Ohio (Clinton +4): Clinton 46, Trump 42

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OhioResults1.pdf

Pennsylvania (Clinton +5): Clinton 48, Trump 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PAResults1.pdf

Wisconsin (Clinton +7): Clinton 48, Trump 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf
[/quote]

YouGov is actually more charitable to Trump in its polls.

Yet a survey across 13 battleground states suggests the race may still be up for grabs. Among likely voters Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by only two points, 42% to 40%. 7% go for Gary Johnson and again 2% for Jill Stein. The states included in the poll are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Following the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by 43% to 41% among a smaller list of 11 states (not including Arizona and Georgia).

I'd rather see Michigan dropped as a 'battleground' state so that a possible 15% lead doesn't distort the whole thing. But what state would I add as a battleground? Certainly not Minnesota or Oregon (for which I would like to see a poll). Missouri... yes! Maybe South Carolina.

Of those states, Michigan and Pennsylvania never went to George W. Bush.

This list includes Arizona and Georgia this time... and if I am a Republican I have to be looking defeat in the face.   

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states -- everything but the District of Columbia and the separate Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska.

This is a good place to start for the closing two months of the Presidential campaign.

So here's what I do with all the controversies from before Labor Day:

Blank map.

()

Good old File 13!

I hereby close and lock this thread.