Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: TarHeelDem on July 26, 2016, 02:54:07 PM



Title: 2024 Democratic Nomination Odds
Post by: TarHeelDem on July 26, 2016, 02:54:07 PM
This scenario assumes that Clinton wins in 2016, runs unopposed in the 2020 primary, and wins that general as well. Who's in the conversation to take up her mantle in 2024 and how likely is each individual to secure the nomination?


Title: Re: 2024 Democratic Nomination Odds
Post by: Kingpoleon on July 26, 2016, 05:25:38 PM
VP Tim Kaine - 25%
Senator Kamala Harris - 20%
Governor Gavin Newsom - 20%
Governor Bill De Blasio - 15%
Field - 20%


Title: Re: 2024 Democratic Nomination Odds
Post by: The Other Castro on July 27, 2016, 09:10:39 AM
Tim Kaine - 20%
Cory Booker - 6%
Gavin Newsom - 5%
Chris Murphy - 5%
Eric Garcetti - 5%
Kamala Harris - 5%
Seth Moulton - 3%
Julian/Joaquin Castro - 3% combined
Kasim Reed - 2%
Jared Polis - 2%
Joe Kennedy III - 2%
Jason Carter - 2%
Field - 40%


Title: Re: 2024 Democratic Nomination Odds
Post by: Spark on July 28, 2016, 11:17:22 AM
Kaine, Harris, Newsom


Title: Re: 2024 Democratic Nomination Odds
Post by: Vosem on July 28, 2016, 01:02:26 PM
Almost certainly a decent chunk of what ends up being the serious field are obscure right now. Hillary v. Bernie was profoundly unusual as a race between two people who had been continuously in politics for decades.