Talk Elections

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-florida-north-carolina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states

Full results with 3rd party candidates:

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https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/26/battleground-colorado-florida-north-carolina-wisco

+2 in North Carolina and +3 in Florida are really good results

+5 in Wisconsin is a little low. I believe the Marquette Poll with Clinton +9 a lot more (they know their state almost perfectly)

+1 in Colorado is a bit of a bummer

I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

Previous polls in CO had her down by 10, so +1 is definitely an improvement for her.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html
RCP was Obama +5.5 in 2008, he ended up 9.0 in Colorado.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
RCP was Obama +1.5 in 2012, he ended up +5.5. Seems like problem polling Hispanics.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ldeqlewqgu/CO_ForRelease_20160626.pdf
Page 20 question 8, Clinton gets 30% of 18-29 and Trump gets 33% LOL.

She gets 37% of whites to 42% for Trump (Romney won by 10).

lol CO

It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.

You guys are forgetting the MoE: Clinton could be leading by 9 in WI right now (which is what Marquette showed). I think she's eventually favoured in CO as well (it usually underpolls for the Dem. candidate). But in general, all these state polls recently match up with a 5-6% national lead ... and not a 12-point lead (like that garbage WaPo poll says).

Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.


I remember some polls last year, in which all GOPers lead Hilldog by large margins. I'll give TRUMP a 60% chance to win the mountain state and its 9 electoral votes in November.

+1 in Colorado, while +2 in NC?

smh smh smh YouGov.

The unskew is strong in this thread.

Seems a bit friendly to Trump in CO/WI, and a bit friendly to Clinton in NC. Still, good to actually have some numbers to work with.

Bill and Hillary combined have only won the state once, so it's possible CO is less favorable to her, but  it is true that Colorado polling has underestimated Democratic support for years, most likely because of the Hispanic population.

Also did they poll senate races in these states?

Lots of undecideds in these polls.  21% undecided in Colorado?  Wonder how many are Sanders children saying they won't vote for either.  Sanders won Colorado 60-40.

I thought they did a national poll too?

If Democrats get the Hispanic vote out in Colorado and Nevada, they win. Big.

Considering YouGov's in house bias against Clinton, these are very good polls.

Any poll with >10% undecideds is really worthless. We're within four months of the election, they need to start pushing the undecideds a bit more--either could have 5-10 point leads in those states for all we know with the information we have.

The NC sample seems too Democratic with a D+5(47-42) sample for what party they're registered in.

The Clintons have never been popular in Colorado, so I don't find that too hard to believe.

I'm surprised by how poorly Johnson and Stein are doing in these polls compared to the national ones.

I don't really see how trailing in a state Romney won can be considered "doing well", unless your standards are extremely low.

He's not finished of course, but that's because it's June.

I've been wondering about this as well, where are they picking up their support from?