Talk Elections

Clinton 46
Trump 37

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/743131478964502528

So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

This actually is better than I thought for Trump tbh

Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better). Also, fully 1/4 of Sanders supporters still not behind Clinton. If she leads by 9 given that... wow.

HRC still struggling with some of the Sander's supporters


GOP enthusiasm is way down...

This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.

Just for the sake of completeness:

LV
Clinton 46 / Trump 37

RV
Clinton 42 / Trump 35

If we can get the Sanders supporters to unite, it could be a 2008-level margin here.

This poll really makes me want to see an Iowa poll.

Lol on Walker approval:

39% Approve
57% Disapprove

Basically the only bright spot in this poll for Republicans in WI....

Expected.

Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Probably they won't since Milwaukee talk radio continues to be a bastion of #NeverTrump and Walker himself has refused to endorse TRUMP.

Hillary got crushed as well though.

Are there more #NeverTrump or #BernieorBust people in this poll?

13% of the respondents said that they were going to neither vote for Clinton nor Trump.

37 for Trump, 46% for Clinton, and 13% for Johnson or Stein means that Trump's ceiling is 41%, which Hillary Clinton beats easily.

Lowest R percentages since 1920 in Wisconsin:

2008 McCain 42%
1996 Dole 37% (three way race)
1992 Bush 37% (three way race)
1964 Goldwater 38%
1936 Landon 38%
1932 Hoover 31%
1924 Coolidge 37% (Third-Party favorite son won Wisconsin that year)

This. I've been to both, and worked politics (in a limited way) in both. VERY different.

(The cheese curds are much better in the upper midwest than the rust belt, for example)

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.

I certainly wouldn't rule out Virginia before Wisconsin. You could argue that the state's trending Democratic, but it's probably a bit soon to say that it's gone for Republicans. And I'd definitely give Pennsylvania to Trump before Wisconsin. Wisconsin simply isn't a good state for Trump, since the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and quite progressive, and Republicans would prefer a candidate like Cruz. It's not impossible that Trump could win Wisconsin, but I don't see it happening unless he's already won OH, PA, FL, VA, IA, and probably a few other states (i.e. already won the election.)

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-06-12 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520160612181)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 37%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/06/15/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-poll-june-9-12-2016/)

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Sanders is tanking Clinton's numbers by holding onto his die hards, whereas in the other scenario, people are assuming Clinton endorsed him like she did Obama.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.

A lot of apathy/anger with the candidates in Wisconsin, as it was a Sanders/Cruz state. Its almost unprecedented for both parties to have more than a quarter dissaproval of your own nominee in a state. The Milwaukee area Republicans still hate Trump, I bet a lot of that 'won't vote/other' is coming from there for Republicans. I'm guessing Waukesha County turns out something like this...

Trump: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Madison (Dane) something like this:

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 27%
Johnson/Other: 5%


Yeah, I would speculate that if Wisconsin was held on March 1st I think Rubio would've won the primary.

If Gary Johnson is getting 10% of the vote in any state,then whoever gets over 45% wins the state. Johnson seems to be picking up fewer votes from usual Democratic voters than from usual Republican voters.

I wonder if Eraserhead will ever tire of concern trolling.

If Wisconsin is ever the tipping point state for the GOP, they are in huge trouble. It's a tier 2 state, at best. I'd probably rank it as the Midwest Twin states of tease along with MN and their cousins NJ and OR in the East and West.

WI is usually fools gold for the GOP, much like GA in the South for the Dems.

MI and PA are likely to be competitive on the GOP side before WI.

Maybe around the same time that you tire of trolling Sanders supporters. :P

You should probably remove the ((( ))) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_parentheses) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Edit: Because I don't tweet I didn't know that Enten puts it in front of his own name. False alarm.

Enten is a writer for 538. He and many others are doing it as sign of solidarity with those who are being attacked by anti-semites.

Yep, didn't know that. Apologies.

I think you're underestimating Clinton a bit in Dane County. No way Trump does as well as Romney. He'll have a hard time breaking 25%. Clinton will get 70, min. Waukesha looks right. I would imagine that Trump will win, but not by the margins he needs, the WOW region. I think he loses the Fox valley by 10.

When a poll is 8 points off, much better to be up 25 points rather than 7 points.

junk poll