Talk Elections

Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

Too many undecideds. Junk poll!

Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.

B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt blue!!!!!

Wisconsin is safe D with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket.  Nothing to see here.


Wisconsin is hardly a rust belt state.

I agree

I would expect WI to have a fair amount of undecideds at the moment, lots of #NeverTrumpers and Bernie supporters.

Would have be interesting to see a poll of the state with 3rd party candidates included.

Oh, gosh, oh geez.  Dat Trump, he's so impolite, hey.  Hillary, at least you woont be embarrassed to have at da church fish fry.

This.  And Minnesota, if anything to confirm/deny the "Minnesota inelasticity" theory.  Watch as MN polls +5.

This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".

Another poll where I wish the pollster pushed undecideds more, but it's another bit of evidence that Trump has much less appeal in the upper Midwest than he does in OH/PA.  I'm very interested in seeing a high quality poll of Iowa.

Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.

Well, yeah... didn't think I needed to type all that out on here.

Wisconsin might actually be one of the better states for third party candidates. They don't seem to like Clinton or Trump much.

Yeah, I think it could be even a couple points more Dem than usual this year.  It's still nice to have (good) polls though.

In January we got a Clinton +8 and a tie from two good pollsters.  And nothing since then, so I'm curious.  Only 6 EVs, but they could end up being important.

In my 18 years in the state I never saw any third-party candidate other than Perot gain much traction, and he was more a protest vote than anything else.

Wisconsin is split down the middle between staunch conservatives and labor-progressive Democrats.  The former really don't like Trump, while the latter will unify behind Clinton, despite Sanders having won the primary.  Huge advantage to Clinton.

This is very accurate.

Why bother keeping in "would not vote"?

Without that

Clinton 47%
Trump 34%

A little better I guess

Someone is above 40, so it has value. A poll in which nobody is above 40 is useless even if valid.

Honestly I have trouble seeing how Trump will win Iowa when the clip of him saying this is blanketing their airwaves non-stop in the Fall:

()

And that's on top of his numerous other gaffes and insults that make life difficult for him in swing states. I must say, it is kind of him to provide Clinton with very personalized attack ad material just for Iowa.

Should be noted that some right wing talk radio in Wisconsin is still #NeverTrump and have stated they will not back down. That's not going to help Trump in the Fall.

Iowa and Wisconsin go almost in tandem, the one time in which they went differently in recent years (2004) showing them both very close to 50-50 ties that year.

Hillary well under 50...     : (

()

Wisconsin is just no good place for TRUMP. He should heavily focus on Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio.

I'd say just Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio. And Florida too.

B-b-b-but everyone told me Wisconsin is a toss-up because THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS and MUH PRIMARY TURNOUT!

If they stick to their guns, that's great news. They were proven to have quite a bit of influence in the primary.

Shame they didn't test Johnson. Wisconsin has a history of high Libertarian result when faced with two unacceptable candidates. In the 2002 gubernatorial election, a dissident Republican ran on the Libertarian line and received 11% of the vote against two disliked major-party candidates (causing the actual Republican to lose the race, 45-41). If Johnson is truly at 10% nationally like the Morning Consult/Monmouth polls show, then he is at least in the mid-teens here (and if he's at 4% nationally like PPP shows, that would still be high single-digits here).

Oh yeah!  I totally voted for that guy.  I can't remember his name, though.



#NeverTrump can run a Johnson & Johnson campaign - Gary and Ron.

Because Trump did so well in RINO-loving Wisconsin in the primaries.

in my opinion, TRUMP's chance of winning.

MN > CT = OR >= WA = WI

Wait... what?

In other words, he has no chance of winning any of those states.

Behold! Statespoll has invented a new kind of math!

:lol:

Feel the Bern!

Ohh, an R-7.5 map! :D

New Poll: TRUMP beat Hillary 44-42 in Oregon.
( Oregon Statewide Survey of Likely General Election Voters May 10-13,2016, 657 RV)

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf (http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf)

How r u feel? u snobby. My Analysis was right. I said Oregon could be a swing state in 2016. since long time ago.

when I posted it (Oregon could be a swing state in 2016) 2weeks ago


Everybody laughed on me.....

But I was right. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236897.0)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c5ebe6be-4a04-4ebd-87c0-4f09c2359c43
He won by 16

Even in 2012 polls underestimated Obama by 6.

One poll in May tells you nothing about November. Yes, Oregon has been a battleground state in the past. No, it won't go for Trump this year. You can count on it, Mr. ">="

Wisconsin up 12 D -- Wisconsin must be very close to a Republican win if not a state voting R if the Republican nominee is to win the Presidency.

Wisconsin, 56-44 D? 2008 redux. That means that Florida and Ohio are both going for the Democrat.

Ohio and Wisconsin are two completely different environments this year. Their Republican Parties have different bases, socioeconomic demographics, expectations for governance, etc. Anecdotally, almost every Republican I know in Ohio is voting for Trump while most of the Republicans I know in Wisconsin won't.

Anyway, I suspect the undecideds really are that high in Wisconsin right now, though they aren't so much undecided and determined not to vote for either candidate.

Because Scott Walker and Ted Cruz are RINOs and conservatism means who can lie the angriest. ::)

What the heck? I'm so confused. Atlas told me that the cheeseheads up there hated that biatch Hitlery Clinton.

We do. We just hate Trump more. If either party had nominated someone else they'd be up a ton.

Scott Walker is very much an Establishment Republican.