Talk Elections

NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted May 16-22:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/313592468/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-5-16-5-22?secret_password=Y6KBalPcmW45np4Eh7GU

Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

Sanders 53%
Trump 41%

Fixed.  :P

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Women: Clinton 54, Trump 36
Men: Trump 51, Clinton 41

White: Trump 52, Clinton 38
Black: Clinton 88, Trump 6
Latino: Clinton 63, Trump 29

(extracted the numbers my measuring pixels and proportioning them based on y axis)

There's good news in here for Hillary to be sure. Sanders doesn't outperform her significantly, and it seems like most of his hard-core voters remain "undecided" in the Hillary match-up (i.e., they will come around eventually).

Trump also seems to be doing terribly with the black vote.

With Sanders and Obama eventually campaigning vigilantly for Hillary, and when you consider the fact that in the past, Democrats have had more of an edge in battleground states than the national horserace might suggest, I'm pretty pleased. She should be quite strong come September.

You know it's going to be a great election when the primary focus as to why someone is voting for the other candidate is that they despise their opponent. :)

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-majority-americans-dislike-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-n578926

Black voters, who traditionally vote Democrat in general elections, support Clinton by an overwhelming 82-point margin (88 percent to 6 percent). This is up 7 points from last week.

Hispanics support Clinton over Trump by 35 points (64 percent to 29 percent).

Trump is the preferred candidate among white voters by 14 points over Clinton (52 percent to 38 percent).

It is far easier to get from 47 to 50 than from 43 to 50.

I like how more support Clinton "because she's the Democratic nominee" than support Trump "because he's the Republican nominee" even though Bernie is still running and California hasn't voted yet.

Words of wisdom.

The MoE for racial subsamples is too large for me to take it seriously, IMO.

No, it is just a reflection of the fact that national polls have crappy Latino subsamples. If they had good Latino subsamples, then, among other things, Bernie Sanders would have done much better in the primaries (except for in Chicago).

Wait for special polls of Latinos from Univision or Latino Decisions.

I'd say the difference between someone being +12 and someone being +4 is pretty significant.

Not when Trump's number only increases by two percentage points against Hillary. It means most of the undecided voters will come home to Hillary.

Not when Trump's number only increases by two percentage points against Hillary. It means most of the undecided voters will come home to Hillary.

Demographic extrapolation: 2012 + NC

Lol

Obviously Bernie does better, but interesting that the difference in this web poll is only 8 points, while it was 12 points in their recent telephone poll.

     Yeah, there's loads of division to go around, even by the standards of modern elections.