Talk Elections

Clinton 52
Trump 38

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/

Closer than expected. If he does better than Romney did in CA then I can imagine Riverside County at least going back to the GOP in 2016.

I mean, Hillary is slightly too low for this to believable but Romney got 37%. If were looking at a repeat of 2012 it looks fine given the Bernie holdouts.

Edit:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/california_romney_vs_obama-2009.html

And looking at polling from 2012, this doesnt look like something that deserves a "wtf?".

Yes and Trump will get 38% in November.

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
Blacks: 76% Clinton, 17% Trump
Hispanics: 51% Clinton, 35% Trump
Asians: 49% Clinton, 40% Trump

18-34 year olds: 51% Clinton, 34% Trump
35-49 year olds: 56% Clinton, 33% Trump
50-64 year olds: 49% Clinton, 43% Trump
65+ year olds: 51% Clinton, 42% Trump

We're doomed : (

Obama won by 22.  An 8pt national swing gives you this map (only difference is Trump doesn't win NM and NV because he's mean to Mexicans) ;

()

Oh despair.

To be optimistic?  Yes.  Alas... the maelstrom to oblivion brews.

Uh....

I cant imagine your having fun...

HAHAHAHA good one SurveyUSA

in 2012 Obama lost whites by 10 points...now they're telling us that Clinton is winning whites by 9 but Donald ing Trump is getting 35% of Latinos in California? That's a good one.

Throw this in the trash.

The subsamples in SUSA polls never make much sense but their toplines are usually (albeit not always) pretty good.

   Yeah, the Survey USA breakdown by race always seems to yield really interesting results, different from convention wisdom but their overall numbers are usually in the general ballpark of most other polls.  So, are they unto something, or do their internal errors just cancel each other out?

More like no one can accurately poll California.

Trump seems to do better with Roman Catholic areas than WASP ones and the more blue-collar suburbs as opposed to the white collar ones. He doesn't play as well in Cobb County as he would Cherokee, for example, in Georgia.

What will be interesting to me is whether Hillary will be able to bounce back from this race becoming competitive. In primary season, Trump rarely allowed the other candidates to get much momentum back. Obviously, we are talking about an electorate that is a lot more inelastic here, but....

Hard to imagine Trump getting more than Romney here.

If the crosstabs in this poll were accurate, (teehee) then they would tell an interesting story if the demographic calculators of RCP and 538 are correct.

()

Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren  303 EV's 52.1%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich  235 EV's 47.0%

538 had New Mexico won with less than 50%.
Clinton only had 50.4% in Ohio.
This poll is junk.
It seems the margins in most states got closer than in 2012, though it was still very close to 2012 (only one state (barely) flipped!). Interesting.
Also, I should note that Florida flipped to Trump despite Clinton's victory margin beating Obama's 2012 margin. Junk polls get junk results I guess.

trump has alot of appeal with hispanics in california he did very well in the counties near mexico in texas beating cruz so i think california numbers are clinton +13 w/whites and clinton +10 w/hispanics. asians nd blacks trump will do very well but clinton gets a +15 win. trump will come close with the asians my grandpa LOVES trump.

The Asian and Latino cross-tabs in this and the primary poll are wacky.

Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf
 (https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf)

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%

Polls in October 2012 had Obama up by a similar margin. It's usually the case that polls underestimate eventual margins in Safe D/R states.

For THE LOVE OF GOD, stop.

If Don receives 35% of the Hispanic vote, 60% of whites, and 17% of African Americans I will personally create an Atlas livestream of me chewing on nails.

I will note this post for posterity, my good sir. :)

Hey guys I'm going to predict the black vote nationwide based on an 83 person subsample from a single poll!

I don't think most Republicans even believe that. I think they believe DJT will receive 70 percent of whites, 3 percent of blacks, maybe 15 percent of Hispanics.