Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Fargobison on May 23, 2016, 02:48:00 pm



Title: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Fargobison on May 23, 2016, 02:48:00 pm
Clinton 52
Trump 38

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: mds32 on May 23, 2016, 02:49:18 pm
Closer than expected. If he does better than Romney did in CA then I can imagine Riverside County at least going back to the GOP in 2016.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Fusionmunster on May 23, 2016, 02:56:07 pm


I mean, Hillary is slightly too low for this to believable but Romney got 37%. If were looking at a repeat of 2012 it looks fine given the Bernie holdouts.

Edit:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/california_romney_vs_obama-2009.html

And looking at polling from 2012, this doesnt look like something that deserves a "wtf?".


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: bumpercrop on May 23, 2016, 02:58:43 pm
Yes and Trump will get 38% in November.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 23, 2016, 03:38:17 pm
Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
Blacks: 76% Clinton, 17% Trump
Hispanics: 51% Clinton, 35% Trump
Asians: 49% Clinton, 40% Trump

18-34 year olds: 51% Clinton, 34% Trump
35-49 year olds: 56% Clinton, 33% Trump
50-64 year olds: 49% Clinton, 43% Trump
65+ year olds: 51% Clinton, 42% Trump


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Clamdick McClaw on May 23, 2016, 03:39:55 pm
We're doomed : (

Obama won by 22.  An 8pt national swing gives you this map (only difference is Trump doesn't win NM and NV because he's mean to Mexicans) ;

()

Oh despair.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Clamdick McClaw on May 23, 2016, 03:42:46 pm

To be optimistic?  Yes.  Alas... the maelstrom to oblivion brews.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Ronnie on May 23, 2016, 03:43:00 pm
Blacks: 17% Trump
Hispanics: 35% Trump
Asians: 40% Trump

Uh....


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Fusionmunster on May 23, 2016, 03:46:26 pm

To be optimistic?  Yes.  Alas... the maelstrom to oblivion brews.

I cant imagine your having fun...


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: bumpercrop on May 23, 2016, 03:48:50 pm
Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
Blacks: 76% Clinton, 17% Trump
Hispanics: 51% Clinton, 35% Trump
Asians: 49% Clinton, 40% Trump


18-34 year olds: 51% Clinton, 34% Trump
35-49 year olds: 56% Clinton, 33% Trump
50-64 year olds: 49% Clinton, 43% Trump
65+ year olds: 51% Clinton, 42% Trump

HAHAHAHA good one SurveyUSA

in 2012 Obama lost whites by 10 points...now they're telling us that Clinton is winning whites by 9 but Donald ing Trump is getting 35% of Latinos in California? That's a good one.

Throw this in the trash.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Eraserhead on May 23, 2016, 04:34:36 pm
Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 50% Clinton, 41% Trump
Blacks: 76% Clinton, 17% Trump
Hispanics: 51% Clinton, 35% Trump
Asians: 49% Clinton, 40% Trump


18-34 year olds: 51% Clinton, 34% Trump
35-49 year olds: 56% Clinton, 33% Trump
50-64 year olds: 49% Clinton, 43% Trump
65+ year olds: 51% Clinton, 42% Trump

HAHAHAHA good one SurveyUSA

in 2012 Obama lost whites by 10 points...now they're telling us that Clinton is winning whites by 9 but Donald ing Trump is getting 35% of Latinos in California? That's a good one.

Throw this in the trash.

The subsamples in SUSA polls never make much sense but their toplines are usually (albeit not always) pretty good.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: rob in cal on May 23, 2016, 05:05:36 pm
   Yeah, the Survey USA breakdown by race always seems to yield really interesting results, different from convention wisdom but their overall numbers are usually in the general ballpark of most other polls.  So, are they unto something, or do their internal errors just cancel each other out?


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Ebsy on May 23, 2016, 05:26:29 pm
More like no one can accurately poll California.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Seriously? on May 23, 2016, 06:04:33 pm

Who has an Electoral College problem now?

On a more serious note, what if we are all reading the Trump phenomenon wrong?  His strongest primary wins outside of WV have been in culturally blue, relatively secular suburbs in the NE.  There are two distinct legs to the Trump coalition, and the blue suburban moderate leg has been almost completely overlooked.  I also wonder if we are too quick to the draw in assigning traditional battleground and lean D Midwestern states to him.  With the exception of MI and metro Chicago (which fits with the aforementioned NE areas in many ways), there was a massive falloff in Trump support as you move N and W from the Ohio River.  I might worry more about PA/NH/MI than MN/WI/IA if I were on the Clinton campaign.
Trump seems to do better with Roman Catholic areas than WASP ones and the more blue-collar suburbs as opposed to the white collar ones. He doesn't play as well in Cobb County as he would Cherokee, for example, in Georgia.

What will be interesting to me is whether Hillary will be able to bounce back from this race becoming competitive. In primary season, Trump rarely allowed the other candidates to get much momentum back. Obviously, we are talking about an electorate that is a lot more inelastic here, but....


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Skye on May 23, 2016, 06:17:31 pm
Hard to imagine Trump getting more than Romney here.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: michelle on May 23, 2016, 07:04:41 pm
If the crosstabs in this poll were accurate, (teehee) then they would tell an interesting story if the demographic calculators of RCP and 538 are correct.

()

Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren  303 EV's 52.1%
Donald Trump/Newt Gingrich  235 EV's 47.0%

538 had New Mexico won with less than 50%.
Clinton only had 50.4% in Ohio.
This poll is junk.
It seems the margins in most states got closer than in 2012, though it was still very close to 2012 (only one state (barely) flipped!). Interesting.
Also, I should note that Florida flipped to Trump despite Clinton's victory margin beating Obama's 2012 margin. Junk polls get junk results I guess.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Rick Grimes on May 23, 2016, 08:13:34 pm
trump has alot of appeal with hispanics in california he did very well in the counties near mexico in texas beating cruz so i think california numbers are clinton +13 w/whites and clinton +10 w/hispanics. asians nd blacks trump will do very well but clinton gets a +15 win. trump will come close with the asians my grandpa LOVES trump.


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on May 23, 2016, 08:19:47 pm
The Asian and Latino cross-tabs in this and the primary poll are wacky.


Title: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)
Post by: StatesPoll on May 23, 2016, 08:56:14 pm
Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf
 (https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf)

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: Make America Malarkey Free Again on May 23, 2016, 09:18:12 pm
Polls in October 2012 had Obama up by a similar margin. It's usually the case that polls underestimate eventual margins in Safe D/R states.


Title: Re: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on May 23, 2016, 09:36:46 pm
Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf
 (https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf)

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%


For THE LOVE OF GOD, stop.


Title: Re: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)
Post by: EliteLX on May 23, 2016, 09:41:03 pm
Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf
 (https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf)

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%


If Don receives 35% of the Hispanic vote, 60% of whites, and 17% of African Americans I will personally create an Atlas livestream of me chewing on nails.


Title: Re: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)
Post by: dax00 on May 24, 2016, 04:16:33 am
If Don receives 35% of the Hispanic vote, 60% of whites, and 17% of African Americans I will personally create an Atlas livestream of me chewing on nails.
I will note this post for posterity, my good sir. :)


Title: Re: CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +14
Post by: giving birth to thunder on May 24, 2016, 06:48:45 am
Hey guys I'm going to predict the black vote nationwide based on an 83 person subsample from a single poll!


Title: Re: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)
Post by: Resigned to Biden on May 24, 2016, 10:28:58 pm
Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf
 (https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf)

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%


If Don receives 35% of the Hispanic vote, 60% of whites, and 17% of African Americans I will personally create an Atlas livestream of me chewing on nails.

I don't think most Republicans even believe that. I think they believe DJT will receive 70 percent of whites, 3 percent of blacks, maybe 15 percent of Hispanics.