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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: SingingAnalyst on February 18, 2016, 04:16:30 PM



Title: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: SingingAnalyst on February 18, 2016, 04:16:30 PM
Pick the lone holdout in a 49-state sweep between now and 2040. (DC goes Dem in any case).


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: This account no longer in use. on February 18, 2016, 04:19:47 PM
Republican landslide: Vermont
Democratic landslide: Utah


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Figueira on February 18, 2016, 04:34:15 PM
For the Democratic holdout, it depends on what kind of candidate the Democrat is. If they're too left wing to be elected nationwide, Vermont would be the holdout. But if they're just a terrible candidate, I'd expect Rhode Island or Maryland.

For the Republican, I'm not sure, but I doubt it would be Utah or West Virginia. Maybe Alabama.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on February 18, 2016, 04:39:46 PM
Utah or Wyoming - Republican
Actually think a state like New York or Maryland for Democrats, since black voters and urban voters are the least elastic.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Clark Kent on February 18, 2016, 06:41:38 PM
Probably something like Maryland for the Democrats, and Utah, Wyoming, or Nebraska for the Republicans.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Mike Thick on February 18, 2016, 06:48:59 PM
Utah or Wyoming for Republicans. I think that Hawaii is a solid choice for the Dems.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: SingingAnalyst on February 18, 2016, 06:53:30 PM
So far out of 10 votes, 4 (myself included) voted VT and one voted WV. Presumably the VT voters see VT as a lone Dem holdout, and WV as a lone GOP holdout. Ironic, considering VT had gone D only once going into 1992, and WV was one of only 4 states to go D in both 1980 and 1988.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Penelope on February 18, 2016, 07:48:38 PM
Out of these, NY.

Vermont has a very homogeneous electorate, but its status as a safe D state in presidential elections goes back to only 2004 or so. Unless the Democratic candidate was from Vermont, the state would probably swing to the Republicans in a 49-state sweep. I personally believe it'd be more likely to be Hawaii, Rhode Island, Maryland, or Massachusetts.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on February 18, 2016, 08:02:59 PM
Oklahoma in a Democratic landslide and Massachusetts in a Republican landslide.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Bismarck on February 24, 2016, 02:08:43 PM
I'm thinking Hawaii for republicans and Oklahoma for democrats, maybe Wyoming.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: RINO Tom on February 24, 2016, 02:35:38 PM
I think with these you almost have to pick a state with a long-standing loyalty to that party.  There's no way in hell WV is the last GOP holdout even if it was solidly behind McCain and Romney (or should we say against Obama), and there's no way VT is one of the last Democratic ones.  I think a state like UT is probably the best choice for the GOP (voted solidly for Reagan and Romney almost 30 years apart ... It's a very Republican state), and MD or MA are good for the Dems.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Virginiá on February 24, 2016, 03:36:48 PM
I think with these you almost have to pick a state with a long-standing loyalty to that party.  There's no way in hell WV is the last GOP holdout even if it was solidly behind McCain and Romney (or should we say against Obama), and there's no way VT is one of the last Democratic ones.  I think a state like UT is probably the best choice for the GOP (voted solidly for Reagan and Romney almost 30 years apart ... It's a very Republican state), and MD or MA are good for the Dems.

That's a great point. MD/MA seem like excellent candidates at this point in time, though without the partisan history, I'd also think NY/CA fit in too (for dems)

However, historically the only region with electoral votes that couldn't be flipped in a landslide is DC (so not a state). Other than that, MD/MA both fell to GOP landslides at one point or another.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 24, 2016, 03:44:47 PM
Vermont and Alabama


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Asian Nazi on February 24, 2016, 06:53:03 PM
If it's a Democrat incumbent getting blown out, Hawaii would be the holdout.
If it's a GOP incumbent doing the blowing out, New York would be the holdout.

In a Democrat landslide, Oklahoma would be the holdout (unless the Republican is a Mormon, in which case it'd be Utah).


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: youngohioan216 on February 26, 2016, 01:04:50 AM
Vermont and Utah


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 27, 2016, 05:34:19 PM
Maryland is getting increasingly Democratic each cycle, while already being a safe state, so I'd risk this answer.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on February 27, 2016, 05:37:54 PM
In a Clinton vs Trump race? New Hampshire/Hawaii and Wyoming/West Virginia, probably.

Generic R vs generic D? Hawaii and Utah, probably.
Why would in a 49 state sweep for Trump, would Clinton win NH over states like New York, Vermont,California,RI ect.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: RINO Tom on February 27, 2016, 05:44:34 PM
In a Clinton vs Trump race? New Hampshire/Hawaii and Wyoming/West Virginia, probably.

Generic R vs generic D? Hawaii and Utah, probably.
Why would in a 49 state sweep for Trump, would Clinton win NH over states like New York, Vermont,California,RI ect.

Because that's what TN Vol wants to be true.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: pbrower2a on March 16, 2016, 03:35:32 PM
Democratic holdout: Hawaii

Republican holdout: Oklahoma


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Nichlemn on March 16, 2016, 04:49:09 PM
It could conceivably be quite a few states, as there are many different ways a landslide could occur, with quite different coalitions.

I could see Hawaii being the Democratic holdout because its distinctiveness could insulate it from a national wave, but I could also see it voting comfortably for a Republican incumbent (as it did in 1972 and 1984).

I could see Utah being the Republican holdout because of its consistent status as the most Republican state. But it did go comfortably for LBJ in the last big Democratic landslide (albeit over 50 years ago). A nasty, relatively irreligious candidate (like... Trump) could lose Utah before he lost some other states.

Maryland and Alabama are plausible holdouts for their respective parties in polarised elections where the winning party just runs up the score a lot with their traditional voters without really managing to break through in the other party's bases. 


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Sir Mohamed on March 18, 2016, 04:37:45 AM
Republican landslide: Vermont
Democratic landslide: Utah


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: TJ in Oregon on March 20, 2016, 01:13:23 PM
I'd voted Utah but seeing as how this election is playing out, West Virginia is a distinct possibility this year.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: P123 on March 21, 2016, 05:20:08 AM
Democrats=California (minorities + bay area liberal whites make it almost impossible to flip) and Vermont. Either one of these two.
Republicans=Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Hawaii would be more likely to flip versus California or Vermont, just look at 2004 (I know it was a re-election year, but still).

Large chance Utah flips this year or votes third if/when Trump is the nominee.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: P123 on March 21, 2016, 05:34:21 AM
I'd voted Utah but seeing as how this election is playing out, West Virginia is a distinct possibility this year.

I would agree with this. Personally I would go with Oklahoma though. Alabama/Arkansas/Tennessee are possibilities aswell. If Trumps the nominee large chance Utah votes Democrat, and if theirs a third party challenge then they would vote for that challenge.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: BuckeyeNut on April 01, 2016, 12:15:33 PM
Hawaii for the Dems. Not sure about the GOP, but to change things up, maybe Idaho?

(I could see CA going for a GOP candidate were it a Vinnick type--not that said type necessarily exists in the real world.)


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on April 01, 2016, 09:04:53 PM
For Democrats  Hawaii
For GOP Utah probably West Virginia in a Trump vs Clinton election


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: JohnathanOHughes on April 17, 2016, 03:59:58 PM
The Election of 2052.

Democratic Candidate: Incumbent, very popular, takes 49 states.

Republican Candidate: Cant beat a President who is telling the truth about a country that is doing great under him.

Incumbent wins every state except for Utah by 1 percent, which is where the Republican candidate comes from.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Kingpoleon on April 17, 2016, 04:11:41 PM
Hawaii for the Dems. Not sure about the GOP, but to change things up, maybe Idaho?

(I could see CA going for a GOP candidate were it a Vinnick type--not that said type necessarily exists in the real world.)
HI tends to trend strongly towards popular incuments, though.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2016, 05:38:54 PM
I'd say Oklahoma or Wyoming, actually. Utah is slightly more elastic.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Xing on April 18, 2016, 09:52:39 AM
Democratic holdout: Hawaii or Maryland
Republican holdout: Oklahoma or Wyoming


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Mallow on April 18, 2016, 11:31:59 AM
MD, VT, or MA for the Democrat
UT, OK, or AL for the Republican


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: IceSpear on April 18, 2016, 02:09:26 PM
Oklahoma and Maryland


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: nclib on April 18, 2016, 05:35:33 PM
Unlikely Hawaii since it has a Republican incumbent bias, which is probably the scenario of a 49-state landslide.

If it's a Democrat incumbent getting blown out, Hawaii would be the holdout.

Yes, though this scenario is much less likely to happen than a GOP re-election.

I'd say for the Dems: MD, NY, MA, RI, and for the GOP: OK, ID, UT (I doubt WV with its Dem history, particularly older voters who could be swing in a landslide.)


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on April 18, 2016, 11:06:15 PM
Unlikely Hawaii since it has a Republican incumbent bias, which is probably the scenario of a 49-state landslide.

If it's a Democrat incumbent getting blown out, Hawaii would be the holdout.

Yes, though this scenario is much less likely to happen than a GOP re-election.

I'd say for the Dems: MD, NY, MA, RI, and for the GOP: OK, ID, UT (I doubt WV with its Dem history, particularly older voters who could be swing in a landslide.)

Although, West Virginia could be the answer in a Trump 49-state loss.  The answer is clearly that it depends on why one party got 49 states in the first place.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Mehmentum on April 19, 2016, 12:50:33 PM
Vermont, Hawaii, and Oklahoma as the holdouts.  Most of the other candidates are pretty close to some other states, and would more likely be a part of a small group of holdouts.  (If Utah is staying Republican, there's a good chance that Idaho is too, same for West Virginia and Kentucky).


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 19, 2016, 12:55:17 PM
Clinton vs. Trump:

Democrats: New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii
Republicans: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alabama

Generic R vs generic D:

Democrats: California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts
Republicans: Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on April 19, 2016, 01:55:51 PM
Cruz vs. Clinton: Utah (R), Rhode Island (D)
Trump vs. Clinton: West Virginia (R), Hawaii (D)
Kasich vs. Clinton: Wyoming (R), Massachusetts (D)
Cruz vs. Sanders: Alabama (R), Vermont (D)
Trump vs. Sanders: Alabama (R), Vermont (D)
Kasich vs. Sanders: Idaho (R), Vermont (D)
Generic R vs. Generic D: Oklahoma (R), Rhode Island (D)

Now, these are not necessarily what would have the biggest margins, but just what would be the hardest to flip.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: mencken on April 23, 2016, 10:05:38 AM
2020: Clinton vs. Jones

Four years after liberal Republican Donald Trump loses to Clinton, the Republican Party faces a heated primary, in which true conservative Alex Jones defeats establishment RINO Louie Gohmert for the nomination.

(
)

President Hillary Clinton / Vice-President Julian Castro 68.2% 531
Radio Host Alex Jones / Former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle 29.8% 7


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Clark Kent on April 23, 2016, 10:14:15 AM
Rhode Island is the most elastic state in the country with New Hampshire a close second. It won't be the last to flip.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Kingpoleon on April 23, 2016, 10:56:59 AM
Rhode Island is the most elastic state in the country with New Hampshire a close second. It won't be the last to flip.
Not Utah, which may trend thirty to forty points this cycle?


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Clark Kent on April 23, 2016, 11:50:13 AM
Rhode Island is the most elastic state in the country with New Hampshire a close second. It won't be the last to flip.
Not Utah, which may trend thirty to forty points this cycle?
Only if Tiny Hands and his fascist goons steal the nomination by threatening everyone else.

EDIT: BY "fascist goons", I mean the Trumpets that have been threatening non-supporters, NOT all Trump-supporters.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Young Conservative on April 23, 2016, 06:48:06 PM
Maryland for democrat, utah or wyoming for republicans


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Fuzzy Won't Cover Up Biden's Senility on April 23, 2016, 08:33:44 PM
Idaho (R)

Vermont (D)




Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2016, 07:02:01 AM
Republican: Idaho -- barring a large Hispanic influx. It was LBJ's weakest win in 1964 while the states that went for Goldwater went so as either Goldwater's home state (Arizona) or statewide protest votes against the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Should Nebraska keep its system of voting by electoral districts, NE-03 (central and western Nebraska) stays R.

Miscegenation will ultimately do the current Republican Party in in the Deep South.

Democratic:  I like to make allusions to FDR. His 48-state landslide in 1936 was really bigger than the 49-state landslides of Nixon and Reagan... and I can imagine a Republican incumbent to say

"As goes Rhode Island... so goes Vermont".


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist on May 06, 2016, 01:38:32 PM
In a Democratic landslide: Oklahoma, along with the 3rd CD in Nebraska, for a total of 8 electoral votes. Oklahoma would flip before NE-3.


Title: Re: 49-state sweep. Holdout?
Post by: Suburbia on May 18, 2016, 10:33:44 PM
California.