Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: MAS117 on May 22, 2005, 05:57:31 PM



Title: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on May 22, 2005, 05:57:31 PM
Star-Ledger/Rutgers- Eagleton Poll

Sen. Jon Corzine -  42%
Doug Forrester - 29%

Sen. Jon Corzine - 44%
Bret Schundler - 24%

GOP: 80% Undecided

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners


Doug Forrester - 39%
Bret Schundler - 33%
Steve Lonegan - 4%
John Murphy - 3%
Bob Schroeder - 3%
Paul DiGaetano - 2%
Todd Caliguire - 0%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 06:06:38 PM
Corzine is so popular! 42% in one, 44% in another. He's got this thing locked up!  ::)


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: King on May 22, 2005, 07:08:08 PM
Only a 13-point lead for Corzine? Wasn't it 25 last month?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on May 22, 2005, 07:28:38 PM
Only a 13-point lead for Corzine? Wasn't it 25 last month?

No it was 10.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: AuH2O on May 22, 2005, 08:38:11 PM
Corzine is likely to win, because while he is owned by the state Democratic Party machine, he is only perhaps 50% their bitch, whereas most state Democrats are 100% their bitch. In the case of McGreevey, in more ways than one.

But in any case, the real action will be on the Senate side, where a corrupt Democrat (but I repeat myself) will face the Commander Kean.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: bullmoose88 on May 22, 2005, 10:02:13 PM
Corzine is likely to win, because while he is owned by the state Democratic Party machine, he is only perhaps 50% their bitch, whereas most state Democrats are 100% their bitch. In the case of McGreevey, in more ways than one.

But in any case, the real action will be on the Senate side, where a corrupt Democrat (but I repeat myself) will face the Commander Kean.

Goldie's right.



Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: A18 on May 22, 2005, 10:07:19 PM
Well, on the one hand he only has numbers in the low 40s. On the other hand, he has a double digit lead.

Anyway, I've always felt the Democrat had this locked up, only because New Jersey is known these days for being a pretty Democratic state. I still think it'd take a stronger candidate for a Republican to win this.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 10:41:17 PM
Corzine is still obviously the favorite but I don't see him winning the General by more than six points. This is not locked up.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cubby on May 23, 2005, 05:04:39 PM
Forrester and Schundler are much further right than the state is comfortable with. If the GOP loses its their own fault for not nominating a moderate like Whitman.




Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 23, 2005, 05:06:21 PM
Forrester and Schundler are much further right than the state is comfortable with. If the GOP loses its their own fault for not nominating a moderate like Whitman.




Forrester was on his way to the U.S. Senate in 2002 until the Dems pulled their switch and he still did fairly well considering that he ran against one of the most popular Dems in the state. Even if he loses this year, it won't be by more than six points.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cubby on May 23, 2005, 05:07:20 PM
Corzine is likely to win, because while he is owned by the state Democratic Party machine, he is only perhaps 50% their bitch, whereas most state Democrats are 100% their bitch.

In the case of McGreevey, in more ways than one.


Ha ha ha! 2 words for you: Ed "I'm 8 inches" Schrock. People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw homophobic puns.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cubby on May 23, 2005, 05:10:10 PM
Forrester and Schundler are much further right than the state is comfortable with. If the GOP loses its their own fault for not nominating a moderate like Whitman.


Forrester was on his way to the U.S. Senate in 2002 until the Dems pulled their switch and he still did fairly well considering that he ran against one of the most popular Dems in the state. Even if he loses this year, it won't be by more than six points.

I don't remember the exact poll numbers from that race, but the only reason Forrester would have won is b/c of Torricelli's coruption. He certainly wouldn't have won based on his ideology, which didn't match most of the electorate.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Jake on May 23, 2005, 05:10:58 PM
So, voters should ignore everything except ideology?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 25, 2005, 07:06:18 PM
Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 25, 2005, 08:06:39 PM
He's not the incumbent, so those numbers aren't so bad. For comparison, Chaffee leads 41-31.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: No more McShame on May 26, 2005, 12:05:07 AM
Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

Ouch, what happened to the Schundler campaign?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2005, 04:26:01 PM
Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

Ouch, what happened to the Schundler campaign?

Doug Forrester is what happened. Schundler was a disaster in 2001 and it's my guess that many NJ Republicans are angry about what happened to Forrester in the 2002 Senate race so he remains pretty popular.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: AuH2O on May 26, 2005, 05:47:17 PM
Corzine is likely to win, because while he is owned by the state Democratic Party machine, he is only perhaps 50% their bitch, whereas most state Democrats are 100% their bitch.

In the case of McGreevey, in more ways than one.


Ha ha ha! 2 words for you: Ed "I'm 8 inches" Schrock. People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw homophobic puns.

Sorry you have no sense of humor.

But Schrock didn't spend $120,000 of the taxpayer's money to keep his Israeli boyfriend in charge of defending the state from terrorism.

And that, which was an amazing breach of trust by McGreevey, was actually not even near the top of his most corrupt actions.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: No more McShame on May 26, 2005, 07:14:14 PM
Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

Ouch, what happened to the Schundler campaign?

Doug Forrester is what happened. Schundler was a disaster in 2001 and it's my guess that many NJ Republicans are angry about what happened to Forrester in the 2002 Senate race so he remains pretty popular.

True but it didn't seem like that long ago that Forrester was only ahead of Schundler by 5-8 pts.  Now it's 16.  Is Schundler just that bad?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 26, 2005, 07:51:42 PM
Just released today....

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Forrester - 45%
Schundler - 29%

Ouch, what happened to the Schundler campaign?

Doug Forrester is what happened. Schundler was a disaster in 2001 and it's my guess that many NJ Republicans are angry about what happened to Forrester in the 2002 Senate race so he remains pretty popular.

True but it didn't seem like that long ago that Forrester was only ahead of Schundler by 5-8 pts.  Now it's 16.  Is Schundler just that bad?

The debates help Forrester. Though I've only heard the closing arguments of a few debates, from what I hear, Forrester destroys everyone else. He comes across as the most informed candidate and that's not hard in this race. There are some jokes running. Forrester vs. Schundler becomes Forrester vs. pack of jokes. Schundler is being thrown in with the pack of jokes because of how well Forrester does. In fact, there's a debate on right now. Unfortunatley, I don't get the channel (though I could have sworn I did). I'm betting Forrester is crushing them again. This debate is really the last chance for Schundler to make this thing somewhat close again.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on May 26, 2005, 08:44:56 PM
I hate all three of these potential candidates, but Schundler makes Forrester and Corzine each seem like the reincarnation of Christ. If he somehow becomes out next governor, I might as well speed up my departure from this deplorable state.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cubby on May 29, 2005, 01:16:27 AM
Corzine is likely to win, because while he is owned by the state Democratic Party machine, he is only perhaps 50% their bitch, whereas most state Democrats are 100% their bitch.

In the case of McGreevey, in more ways than one.


Ha ha ha! 2 words for you: Ed "I'm 8 inches" Schrock. People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw homophobic puns.

Sorry you have no sense of humor.

But Schrock didn't spend $120,000 of the taxpayer's money to keep his Israeli boyfriend in charge of defending the state from terrorism.

And that, which was an amazing breach of trust by McGreevey, was actually not even near the top of his most corrupt actions.

Well at least you didn't call me a fag like a certain jerk from Pennsylvania did (the one with the pic of an old guy in his sig)

Don't keep me waiting, what could McGreevey possibly have done that was worse than what you've already mentioned? Did he cruelly declare some land off limits to development? :)


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 01, 2005, 02:46:11 PM
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners
June 1st, 2005

   
Doug Forrester - 40%
Bret Schundler - 29%
John Murphy - 9%
Steve Lonegan - 4%
Bob Schroeder - 3%
Todd Caliguire - 2%
Paul DiGaetano - 2%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 01, 2005, 04:40:58 PM
My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Forrester - 43%
Schundler - 32%
Murphy - 7%
Schroeder - 7%
DiGaetanto - 5%
Lonegan - 5%
Caliguire - 1%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Hitchabrut on June 01, 2005, 04:48:50 PM
Schundler has been attacked on trivial quotes that he made many years ago and the problem is that he hasn't responded as much as he should have. Murphy has probably spent more on advertising than Schundler, who doesn't seem to care who wins.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Sam Spade on June 01, 2005, 05:56:18 PM
Forrester is pulling away in this primary and will win it fairly easily.

Corzine is still the odds-on favorite in this race, obviously, but out of the two Forrester is clearly the best candidate and could possibly get over 45%.

Winning is obviously a longshot for Forrester, though.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cubby on June 02, 2005, 03:18:23 PM
I get some New York City radio stations where I live, and there have been a few ads over the past week, mostly anti-Schundler ones by the Forrester campaign. The one today was only about property taxes.

But I laughed when the guy said "Steve Forbes has approved Doug Forrester's plan..." Does Forbes live in NJ or something? I don't know why they'd say that.

 


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Sam Spade on June 02, 2005, 03:34:49 PM
I get some New York City radio stations where I live, and there have been a few ads over the past week, mostly anti-Schundler ones by the Forrester campaign. The one today was only about property taxes.

But I laughed when the guy said "Steve Forbes has approved Doug Forrester's plan..." Does Forbes live in NJ or something? I don't know why they'd say that.

Forbes does live in New Jersey.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Ben Meyers on June 02, 2005, 04:50:50 PM
I have some family in New Jersey.  They live in a pretty wealthy area and most of the people there are supporting Forrester.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 02, 2005, 09:01:54 PM
My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Forrester - 43%
Schundler - 32%
Murphy - 7%
Schroeder - 7%
DiGaetanto - 5%
Lonegan - 5%
Caliguire - 1%

My prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Doug Forrester - 43%
Bret Schundler - 35%
John Murphy - 8%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 3%
Paul DiGaetano - 3%
Todd Caligure - 3%



Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 03, 2005, 04:40:43 PM
A bit of news concerning Jon Corzine's Victory party on June 7th...

From PoliticsNJ: Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell will be the guest speaker at an election night victory party for Jon Corzine at the East Brunswick Hilton on Tuesday night.



Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 03, 2005, 10:06:51 PM
2005 Democratic Governor Primary

Senator Jon S. Corzine - 97%
Other - 3%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 05, 2005, 12:35:56 PM
That debate was, as usual, a joke. Forrester stays above the fray as Schundler is the target of Lonegan and Murphy. I really can't wait until Tuesday night when this is all over.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 01:27:49 AM
I just watched the full Gubernatorial debate (I only watched parts this morning) and I'm just embarrassed. Now the 2004 Democratic Presidential candidates still win the award for the greatest political circus in the U.S. but these NJ GOP are pretty close.

As I stated earlier, Forrester stayed above the fray, hardly ever getting involved when everyone else was yelling at one another. No one on that set would admit it (expect Doug) but Forrester is going to win this thing and win it easily. In fact, when Schundler said he was going to win, he couldn't keep a straight face.

Lonegan, the candidate who is the biggest joke next to Schroeder, kept picking on everyone. He was playing Al Gore with all the sighs. His main target, however, was John Murphy. At one point, Murphy actually turned and told him "Steve, you are one of the rudest people I've ever met." after Lonegan interrupted Murphy with "That's not an answer."

Schundler, who is hoping for a political miracle, seemed to be on the defense throughout the whole debate. If he wanted to pull off a miracle, this was his last chance. It's not happening, Bret.

The most surprising part was that the candidate who will do the worst this Tuesday - Todd Caliguire - seemed to have the most time to speak. Caliguire has 1-2% in most polls. Paul DiGaetano, who somewhere around fifth place, looked like he gave up midway through the debate.

But the most fitting part of the debate was when one of the questioners (CBS 3's Larry Mendte) quoted Stewart Rothenberg. Rothenberg commented that no one was paying attention to the NJ GOP Primary because it wasn't a race. It was a mess. I couldn't agree with you more, Stew. The candidates said that the day after the vote everyone will unite. I hope they're not planning some big event with the media because no one wants to see this crew together again. Forrester standing in the center of a stage with the others all huddled around can only hurt.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: angus on June 06, 2005, 07:49:39 AM
Been watching some TV over the last week, and I've noticed lots of NJ governor commercials.  Forrester's going negative.  Not necessairly on the dems, mostly on his opponents.  From what I've read, he will probably win.  At that, point Corzine will not have the luxury of staying positive.  Actually, he will, but probably won't.  I'm not cynical, but I am skeptical.  It's been a long time since I've heard a candidate say something like, "My opponent is a wise and kind man, and has many ideas, but I think mine are better, and I think you will too.  Here they are..."

As an aside, I see lots of Bloomberg commercials.  His are largely positive, I'll say.  I think I'm rooting for Bloomberg.  Seems to have a good record on education, jobs, business (at least from his ads), and so far he isn't attacking his opponent.  That's a plus.  But then it's probably just a matter of time.  Apparently the state legislature is meeting in Albany today to decide whether to commit a big chunk of money to a new stadium in midtown manhattan.  I think I'm for it.  So is Bloomberg, but I don't think it's an easy sell.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Moooooo on June 06, 2005, 10:07:42 AM
http://www.njdems.org/gopunity.php


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 11:31:03 AM

That's all they've done. Pretty pathetic. Also, go to PoliticsNJ.com (http://PoliticsNJ.com) for a hilarious ad.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 11:55:52 AM
This can't be happening...

http://www.bret2005.com/pressreleases/?messageID=687

The Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows the race for the Republican nomination for Governor has tightened to a statistical tie – Doug Forrester with 35 percent, Bret Schundler with 33 percent, with 5.4 percent margin of error. On June 1, a Quinnipiac poll showed the race at 40-29, with Doug Forrester in the lead.

How? How can this happen? If this is really the case, I guess tomorrow night will be more exciting (yet more nerve wracking) than I had imagined.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Moooooo on June 06, 2005, 11:58:16 AM
Thats a huge drop in just two days.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 12:01:09 PM

This is just crazy. While Schundler said it with a bit of a laugh during the debate, I still didn't understand how he could say he would win. He didn't perform well at all during the debate yet I doubt they were still conducting this yesterday morning so that's good news for Forrester. He has new ads out but I don't think they could help him out of the hole he was in. Something happened...I just don't know what it was...


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 12:04:25 PM
There is some good news for Forrester...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=741

3. Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester or Schundler?

* This table includes Leaners

 
                        Likely
                        Voters

Forrester               49%
Schundler               41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2
DK/NA                    7

 


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 06, 2005, 01:56:35 PM
Good news for Bret Schundler...

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners

   
Doug Forrester -35%
Bret Schundler - 33%
John Murphy - 7%
Paul DiGaetano - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 1%
Todd Caliguire - 1%

Quinnipiac: DEAD HEAT


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 06, 2005, 02:01:19 PM
Updated Prediction for the 2005 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Doug Forrester - 43%
Bret Schundler - 37%
John Murphy - 8%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Paul DiGaetano - 4%
Bob Schroeder - 2%
Todd Caligure - 1%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Hitchabrut on June 06, 2005, 02:11:39 PM
Doug Forrester - 45%
Bret Schundler - 38%
John Murphy - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 4%
Paul DiGaetano - 3%
Bob Schroeder - 2%
Todd Caligure - 2%



Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 05:44:29 PM
Good news for Bret Schundler...

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Republican Primary
Likely Voters, including leaners

   
Doug Forrester -35%
Bret Schundler - 33%
John Murphy - 7%
Paul DiGaetano - 6%
Steve Lonegan - 5%
Bob Schroeder - 1%
Todd Caliguire - 1%

Quinnipiac: DEAD HEAT

Maybe you didn't notice that I already posted this?  :P

I'm worried but not too worried and I'm not changing my predictions because of this. I'd rather be completely wrong than just keep adjusting my predictions.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: King on June 06, 2005, 08:32:39 PM
Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 08:36:34 PM
Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

I agree and disagree. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling institutes in the area. However, I'm still stratching my head as to how anyone can close that gap in such a short amount of time. I'm still alittle worried though.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on June 06, 2005, 08:47:17 PM
Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

I agree and disagree. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling institutes in the area. However, I'm still stratching my head as to how anyone can close that gap in such a short amount of time. I'm still alittle worried though.

How many voters watch the primary debates? 1%? Forrester is going to win tomorrow without much trouble.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2005, 08:49:11 PM
How many voters watch the primary debates? 1%?

I don't know about that. It's become a real circus and people would probably watch for the entertainment.

Quote
Forrester is going to win tomorrow without much trouble.

I think he'll still win without much trouble either but I'm still alittle worried.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: angus on June 07, 2005, 07:58:34 AM
following up on the off-topic Bloomberg/stadium comments:  The assembly voted last evening not to fund it.  Bloomberg had invested a great deal of time and effort in that project, but Silber, the assemblyman from Lower Manhattan also happens to be a Democrat and the speaker, as well as an opponent of the 2.2 billion dollar project.  Presumably because he feels it takes money away from downtown projects such as rebuilding the WTC area.  Also Bloomberg's gone negative:  "Those that were on the other side will have to explain why they were against jobs, why they were against economic opportunity and growth."  Well, I still think I'm rooting for him.

Don't really follow the NJ governor's race, but in the spirit of staying on topic, I'll say that it seems like Schundler is closing the gap, based on what I saw on the local news last night.  Forrester still slightly ahead.  Hot again, but not as hot.  maybe low 70s when I stepped out about 8:30 EDT.  News said to expect 85.  Lotsa lightning and rain last night, so it'll be muggy like the Yucatan, or like Mississippi.  But my car is clean, and so are the sidewalks.  Fringe benefit of hard rain.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: King on June 07, 2005, 09:53:19 PM
Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

Forrester 36%
Schundler 31%

Told ya! ;)


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: angus on June 08, 2005, 08:55:24 AM
the nyc news broadcasts didn't seem surprised by the forrester victory, I'll add.  And, frankly, from what I could tell from the coverage, neither did the Schundler supporters.  The word "loser" was frequently and casually used to describe Schundler very often on channels 5 and 9.  Did not hear the word "upset" at all.  And by about 11 o'clock, the schundler HQ was pretty much a big empty room.  No surprises, it seems.  Oddly, the local media don't seem much enamored with Corzine either.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 13, 2005, 01:53:58 PM
STAR-LEDGER/ EAGLETON-RUTGERS POLL

Jon Corzine - 43%
Doug Forrester - 33%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 13, 2005, 04:39:14 PM
STAR-LEDGER/ EAGLETON-RUTGERS POLL

Jon Corzine - 43%
Doug Forrester - 33%


Forrester shouldn't be in the 30s anymore so this isn't that great of news for his campaign. However, Corzine in the low 40s isn't good for the Dems.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on June 16, 2005, 01:16:27 PM
Quinnipiac Poll

HEAD TO HEAD
Jon Corzine - 47%
Doug Forrester - 37%

JOB APPROVAL
George W. Bush - 40%-55%
Richard Codey - 51%-22%
Jon Corzine - 51%- 32%
Frank Lautenberg - 49%-34%

FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Jon Corzine - 33%-21%
Doug Forrester - 20%-14%

HONEST & TRUSTWORTHY
Jon Corzine - 50%-26%
Doug Forrester - 40%-22%

STRONG LEADER
Jon Corzine - 61%-20%
Doug Forrester - 45%-19%

CARES ABOUT THE NEEDS OF PEOPLE LIKE YOU
Jon Corzine - 46%-35%
Doug Forrester - 42%-29%

BETTER JOB REDUCING PROPERTY TAXES
Jon Corzine - 35%
Doug Forrester - 37%

BALLOT TEST: INDEPENDENTS
Jon Corzine - 37%
Doug Forrester - 39%

BALLOT TEST: WOMEN
Jon Corzine - 48%
Doug Forrester - 34%

BALLOT TEST: MEN
Jon Corzine - 46%
Doug Forrester - 40%

BALLOT TEST: SOUTH JERSEY
Jon Corzine - 42%
Doug Forrester - 39%

BALLOT TEST: SHORE COUNTIES
Jon Corzine - 39%
Doug Forrester - 46%

BALLOT TEST: ESSEX & HUDSON
Jon Corzine - 53%
Doug Forrester - 29%

BALLOT TEST: BERGEN, PASSAIC, UNION, MIDDLESEX & MERCER
Jon Corzine - 54%
Doug Forrester - 33%

BALLOT TEST: MORRIS, SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, SUSSEX & WARREN
Jon Corzine - 43%
Doug Forrester - 42%


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Redefeatbush04 on July 08, 2005, 06:11:02 PM
Only a fool would call one university poll a sign of a dead heat.  Schundler has done consistantly better in Quinnipiac polls than in others so this confirms Forrestor by about 5-7%.

I agree and disagree. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling institutes in the area. However, I'm still stratching my head as to how anyone can close that gap in such a short amount of time. I'm still alittle worried though.

How many voters watch the primary debates? 1%? Forrester is going to win tomorrow without much trouble.

I know I sound like a broken record but most people don't even know who is running. And the ones that do.....know absolutely nothing about the candidates. I follow politics more than the average new jersey resident, and while I know basic information about the candidates, and their political viewpoints, I didn't even know about the debate. Our local paper hardly covers local politics. I'm glad Forrester was nominated though. He has the best shot at winning. Are Forrester and Corzine having a debate? If so....when?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MHS2002 on July 15, 2005, 03:35:55 PM
New Rassmussen Poll:

Corzine 50, Forrester 38, Other 4

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Governor_July%2015.htm)


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 15, 2005, 03:46:21 PM
New Rassmussen Poll:

Corzine 50, Forrester 38, Other 4

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Governor_July%2015.htm)

Forrester needs to start going after those Independent voters stronger.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: King on July 15, 2005, 03:50:55 PM
New Rassmussen Poll:

Corzine 50, Forrester 38, Other 4

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Governor_July%2015.htm)

Forrester needs to start going after those Independent voters stronger.

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

Quote
Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 15, 2005, 03:52:32 PM
New Rassmussen Poll:

Corzine 50, Forrester 38, Other 4

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Governor_July%2015.htm)

Forrester needs to start going after those Independent voters stronger.

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

Quote
Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.

That's a factor but in the end, the conservatives of NJ will without a doubt be supporting Forrester over Corzine. Maybe he'll have to work on them a bit for turnout but the Independent vote is what will really matter the most.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Moooooo on July 15, 2005, 04:55:35 PM
Who the hell is the "other" candidate?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Moooooo on July 15, 2005, 04:58:14 PM

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

Quote
Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.

Ive been saying that all along.  Social conservatives are going to stay home.  They may not be the largest demographic in NJ, but in a close race they could be the deciding factor.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: YRABNNRM on July 15, 2005, 05:21:00 PM
Who the hell is the "other" candidate?

NJ WeedMan.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cubby on July 15, 2005, 07:44:13 PM
Quinnipiac Poll

HEAD TO HEAD
Jon Corzine - 47%
Doug Forrester - 37%

BALLOT TEST: MORRIS, SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, SUSSEX & WARREN
Jon Corzine - 43%
Doug Forrester - 42%

Wow! Corzine is tied with Forrester in the most heavily Republican counties in the State. That is surprising and a bad sign for the GOP unless I'm missing something.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: The Dowager Mod on July 15, 2005, 07:51:31 PM
Just wait a while you will get spin.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on July 16, 2005, 12:19:44 AM

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

Quote
Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.

Ive been saying that all along.  Social conservatives are going to stay home.  They may not be the largest demographic in NJ, but in a close race they could be the deciding factor.

Or maybe they'll find an entirely new guy to steal votes!

You thought Bob Casey would be brought down by the pro-choice crowd... imagine what the ultra-pro-life nuts could do to poor Doug Forrester!


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Moooooo on July 16, 2005, 10:23:09 AM

Or maybe they'll find an entirely new guy to steal votes!

You thought Bob Casey would be brought down by the pro-choice crowd... imagine what the ultra-pro-life nuts could do to poor Doug Forrester!

Have you decided who you will be voting for?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on July 16, 2005, 11:28:30 AM

Or maybe they'll find an entirely new guy to steal votes!

You thought Bob Casey would be brought down by the pro-choice crowd... imagine what the ultra-pro-life nuts could do to poor Doug Forrester!

Have you decided who you will be voting for?

I will probably vote for Senator Corzine.

Corzine has demonstrated in the Senate that he is willing to protect our social freedoms and follow the precedents set by acting governor Codey. Based on the state of the NJ GOP, which has distanced itself from former governor Whitman, I do not trust Doug Forrester to do the same. I may change my mind. You never know.

In a worst-case scenario, Corzine finally destroys the NJ Democratic Party, and some moderate Republicans take command for the next few years. Not a bad deal.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 17, 2005, 06:57:07 PM

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

Quote
Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.

Ive been saying that all along.  Social conservatives are going to stay home.  They may not be the largest demographic in NJ, but in a close race they could be the deciding factor.

Social conservatives are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most liberal Senators in the country.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on July 21, 2005, 05:51:27 PM

Forrester needs Conservative voters:

Quote
Forrester is struggling to solidify the support of New Jersey's conservative voters, just 63% of whom currently plan to vote for the GOP nominee. A month ago, he had 74% support from thes voters.

Ive been saying that all along.  Social conservatives are going to stay home.  They may not be the largest demographic in NJ, but in a close race they could be the deciding factor.

Social conservatives are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most liberal Senators in the country.

By that same logic, social liberals are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most conservative Senators in the country, Rick Santorum.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 21, 2005, 05:56:38 PM

By that same logic, social liberals are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most conservative Senators in the country, Rick Santorum.

I never said they wouldn't go to the polls but they might not go for Casey. I think NJ conservatives are more willing to accept Forrester (who isn't really that close to the center) than PA liberals being willing to vote for Casey.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on July 21, 2005, 06:52:57 PM

By that same logic, social liberals are not going to stay home when they have a chance to beat one of the most conservative Senators in the country, Rick Santorum.

I never said they wouldn't go to the polls but they might not go for Casey.

What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 21, 2005, 06:57:20 PM


What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?

They don't believe a third party nut would beat him. It would be a very strong protest vote. Here's a situation when they see two social conservatives running and have no real choice. It's not the same as NJ. Forrester is not a RINO. Social conservatives there have a choice. He's not Schundler but he's more acceptable. Social liberals in PA aren't seeing it that way (or atleast aren't now). Do you remember all the outrage over the Dems asking Casey to run?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Jake on July 21, 2005, 07:14:12 PM
The PA situation is like 2004 except that the third party candidate is a joke rather than a serious candidate.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on July 22, 2005, 09:52:54 PM


What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?

They don't believe a third party nut would beat him. It would be a very strong protest vote. Here's a situation when they see two social conservatives running and have no real choice. It's not the same as NJ. Forrester is not a RINO. Social conservatives there have a choice. He's not Schundler but he's more acceptable. Social liberals in PA aren't seeing it that way (or atleast aren't now). Do you remember all the outrage over the Dems asking Casey to run?

No, I don't really remember the outrage. I remember thousands upon thousands of social liberals cheering at the possibility of a Democratic victory.

How is Casey a social conservative? Is he just pro-life? You're always going to find a bunch of idiots voting over abortion - that's what we call NOW, and they are best left ignored.  The "liberal lobbyist pro-abortion groups" have much, much less influence on elections than you think, especially in a state like Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 24, 2005, 07:55:04 PM


What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?

They don't believe a third party nut would beat him. It would be a very strong protest vote. Here's a situation when they see two social conservatives running and have no real choice. It's not the same as NJ. Forrester is not a RINO. Social conservatives there have a choice. He's not Schundler but he's more acceptable. Social liberals in PA aren't seeing it that way (or atleast aren't now). Do you remember all the outrage over the Dems asking Casey to run?

No, I don't really remember the outrage. I remember thousands upon thousands of social liberals cheering at the possibility of a Democratic victory.

Well then you weren't paying attention.



Quote
How is Casey a social conservative? Is he just pro-life? You're always going to find a bunch of idiots voting over abortion - that's what we call NOW, and they are best left ignored.  The "liberal lobbyist pro-abortion groups" have much, much less influence on elections than you think, especially in a state like Pennsylvania.

I know liberal groups have much less influence that's why Santorum is going to point out that they're up here. If anything, they annoy Pennsylvanians.

Casey is not a social conservative like his father but on the issues we know his positions on like gay marriage and abortion, for example, Casey has defined himself in the past and even today, as a social conservative. When we begins to use MoveOn and the Deaniacs, his social conservativism (that would usually help) will be ignored.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on July 25, 2005, 07:37:08 PM


What would possibly bring them to believe that some third-party nut could beat Rick Santorum?

They don't believe a third party nut would beat him. It would be a very strong protest vote. Here's a situation when they see two social conservatives running and have no real choice. It's not the same as NJ. Forrester is not a RINO. Social conservatives there have a choice. He's not Schundler but he's more acceptable. Social liberals in PA aren't seeing it that way (or atleast aren't now). Do you remember all the outrage over the Dems asking Casey to run?

No, I don't really remember the outrage. I remember thousands upon thousands of social liberals cheering at the possibility of a Democratic victory.

Well then you weren't paying attention.

I am basing my information off of local liberal organizations and my contacts within the Philadelphia area. Considering the abundant liberalism in and around Philly, I'd say it's a decent sample. Everyone I know is excited about a Casey nomination - except the Republicans, of course. :P

Quote
Casey is not a social conservative like his father but on the issues we know his positions on like gay marriage and abortion, for example, Casey has defined himself in the past and even today, as a social conservative. When we begins to use MoveOn and the Deaniacs, his social conservativism (that would usually help) will be ignored.

Has he stated his stances on any other important issues? The Iraq War? Stem-cell research? Gay rights in general? Civil liberties (discrimination, Patriot Act, etc.)?


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 25, 2005, 07:44:35 PM
Has he stated his stances on any other important issues? The Iraq War? Stem-cell research? Gay rights in general? Civil liberties (discrimination, Patriot Act, etc.)?

Iraq War - Not sure what he thinks.
Stem cell research - Same as above.
Gay rights - supports civil unions
Civil liberties - Not sure what he thinks


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: MAS117 on August 07, 2005, 07:23:33 PM
Posted on Sun, Aug. 07, 2005
Click here to find out more!

Campaign could lose Forrester's millions

N.J. law appears to bar his donations, which he used in part to pitch his candidacy as a counterweight to Corzine's.

By Tom Turcol and Cynthia Burton

Inquirer Staff Writers

Republican Douglas Forrester has spent millions of dollars of his own money to run for governor - and to fund other party candidates and groups - despite a state law that appears to prohibit him from making those contributions.

The law bars insurance companies and other state-regulated industries doing business in New Jersey - and individuals with majority ownership in the companies - from contributing to candidates or political organizations in the state.

Forrester holds a 51 percent ownership interest in an insurance company that sells most of its policies to governmental clients in New Jersey.

"All of the kinds of things we've done with regard to contributions have been done appropriately and have been examined by appropriate legal counsel," Forrester said in an interview Friday.

Yet the state election law could put into question the contributions that Forrester has made, including those to his own campaign, since he formed his insurance company in 2003. Under the law, designed to prevent undue influence by insurance companies, banks and other state-regulated industries, prohibited contributions might have to be returned.

The Attorney General's Office, which has strictly interpreted the law over three decades to apply to insurance companies and their subsidiaries, declined to comment.

Forrester's company, Heartland Fidelity Insurance Co., was established by him in 2003 to sell health-benefits insurance. Heartland is managed by a second Forrester company - the New Jersey-based BeneCard Services Inc. - which brokers and administers the Heartland contracts. Forrester said he has made more than $50 million from his business, and he is financing his campaign for governor almost exclusively with his own money.

Since forming Heartland, Forrester has spent $11 million to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination and has said he will also personally finance his fall campaign against Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon S. Corzine.

In addition, Forrester has contributed several hundred thousand dollars to various GOP candidates and committees in the state since forming his insurance company.

Forrester promoted his candidacy to key Republicans partly on his assertion that the party needed a wealthy, self-financed candidate such as him to compete with the wealthy Corzine, who also is financing his campaign. If it is determined that he cannot use his own money to run for governor, Forrester would be forced to raise money quickly from a state GOP whose fund-raising efforts in recent years have been anemic.

Forrester's contributions to his gubernatorial bid have been in the form of loans, which are considered contributions under state campaign-finance rules.

Forrester, after consulting with his attorneys, drew a fine line Friday between the corporate status of the two companies. He said the New Jersey campaign-finance restrictions for insurance companies do not apply to him because he licensed Heartland Fidelity in the District of Columbia.

Heartland "is a D.C. company. It is not regulated by the State of New Jersey," he said through his campaign spokeswoman, Sherry Sylvester. "The statute is not intended to reach beyond the boundaries of New Jersey."

The state law, however, covers companies that "do business" in New Jersey. Heartland's business is produced through BeneCard, a Forrester-owned company with about 100 employees, located in Lawrenceville.

An official at the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance said the issue is where Heartland does business, not where it is licensed and regulated.

"If Heartland is selling insurance to New Jersey entities through BeneCard, they're conducting the business of insurance in New Jersey," said Anne Marie Narcini, ombudsman and manager of consumer protection at the state department.

Forrester said in an interview last month that the vast majority of BeneCard's clients were governments and other public entities in New Jersey, and that most were insured through Heartland.

Heartland's contracts with its New Jersey clients are "agreements" between Heartland, BeneCard and the clients (or the "association"), according to contracts reviewed by The Inquirer. The contracts identify BeneCard as Heartland's managing agent.

"The sole purpose," states one of the contracts, is "to provide insurance coverage... to the group and similar groups that enter into this form of agreement with BeneCard."

A national insurance-ratings service also draws little distinction between Forrester's two companies. In a January 2005 report on Heartland, A.M. Best points to their "shared ownership" and refers to the "core relationship [Heartland] has with its affiliated organization BeneCard... . Both Heartland and BeneCard write the majority of its business within New Jersey."

State law expressly bars insurance companies and other regulated industries such as banks, utilities and casinos from making contributions to candidates or political organizations in New Jersey. The law also covers individuals with a majority ownership in those companies.

The section governing the insurance industry states: "No insurance corporation or association doing business in this state shall directly or indirectly" contribute money to candidates or political organizations. It also bars individuals "owning or holding the majority of stock in any such corporation" from making campaign contributions.

Forrester's campaign Web site alerts contributors that "certain regulated industries (casinos, financial institutions, insurance companies, utilities) are prohibited from contributing" to his campaign.

Forrester, through an attorney for his companies, Hersh Kozlov, maintained that he is exempt from the law because Heartland is licensed and regulated in Washington. He said that BeneCard brokers and negotiates the insurance contracts for clients, including those in New Jersey, and the insurance is issued in Washington through Heartland.

"If [Heartland] was regulated by the Department of Insurance in New Jersey, there would be an issue, but since it's not, there is no issue," said Kozlov, a former counsel to the state GOP.

Angelo Genova, a leading Democratic election attorney in New Jersey, said, however, that the law clearly applied to Forrester.

The law, he said, "is about doing the business of an insurance company, not whether it's registered or licensed in New Jersey... . The issue of licensure is not relevant. If they're insuring claims to be brought against BeneCard clients, they're doing business in New Jersey."

A number of opinions from the state attorney general over three decades have strictly interpreted the law to preclude not only insurance companies, banks and utilities, but also their subsidiaries or any other related entities, from making political contributions.

In an opinion this year, Attorney General Peter Harvey said the law, in effect since the 1930s, was intended to "address the evil of corporate influence over elected government officials and to insulate those officials from the sway of regulated industries and/or businesses which are the subject of extensive government regulation."

Harvey made those comments in ruling that a company called Insurance Services Office Inc., which produced data for insurance companies, could not create a political action committee to donate to political causes in New Jersey. Harvey concluded that because ISO was partly owned by insurance companies, it would still be banned from setting up the PAC.

The law "prohibits insurance companies doing business in New Jersey from directly or indirectly using their assets to support candidates for political office," Harvey wrote.

Peter Aseltine, a spokesman for the Attorney General's Office, declined to comment.

The law does not apply to insurance brokers or employees of insurance companies, who can contribute to political action committees.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Flying Dog on August 11, 2005, 01:06:53 PM
Corzine doesnt have this wraped up but he is the huge favorite to win


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 14, 2005, 01:07:25 PM
Big News! Everyone's favorite Pro Pot legalization candidate, NJ Weedman, has said that he will not actively campaign and doesn't plan to run in the future. The whole thing is "getting old" Weedman said in the Philadelphia Inquirer. Weedman has been a candidate for a number of offices in NJ over the years. Only the people of NJ are crazy enough to help this guy on the ballot.


Title: Re: New NJ Governor's Poll
Post by: Cashcow on August 14, 2005, 01:30:36 PM
I have a few friends in Cherry Hill who voted for him.