Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: bagelman on November 11, 2015, 08:38:57 PM



Title: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: bagelman on November 11, 2015, 08:38:57 PM
Are there any counties or towns that tend to vote for the loser more often than a county that always votes for the same party every time?


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: / on November 11, 2015, 09:10:06 PM
Regarding the last four presidential elections, I would guess that any county that voted for both Kerry in 2004 and McCain in 2008 is pretty anti-bellwether, as Obama won basically all his 2012 counties in 2008 and Bush won basically all his 2000 counties in 2004.

Tennessee seems to have the most examples.


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: Figueira on November 11, 2015, 09:34:55 PM
Heath, Massachusetts, voted for Goldwater and Mondale.


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: SingingAnalyst on December 13, 2020, 05:32:05 PM
Heath, Massachusetts, voted for Goldwater and Mondale.
That's fascinating! Did Heath vote for McGovern as well?

Lincoln, MA voted for the loser every election from 1968-1988 (as well as in 1960), though it has been reliably Democratic ever since.


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: H. Ross Peron on December 13, 2020, 05:40:46 PM
Heath, Massachusetts, voted for Goldwater and Mondale.

I'm guessing it underwent the same demographic changes as Vermont, from a small Yankee village to taking in a lot of transplants from NYC and other urban areas who wished to have a rural lifestyle?


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: E-Dawg on December 13, 2020, 06:22:44 PM
Porterville, CA in Tulare County voted McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump. Fountain Valley in Orange County also appears to be a McCain-Romney-Clinton-Trump city. Westminster came close, voting McCain-Obama-Clinton-Trump.


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: Squidward500 on December 14, 2020, 03:17:43 PM
Kenedy County TX (although it’s tiny)
Romney-Clinton-Trump.

Trump actually won the largest voter share there in s while. Being rural snd heavily Latino, it swung right wildly with the rest of south texas


Title: Re: Anti-bellwethers
Post by: E-Dawg on December 17, 2020, 02:28:02 AM
Texas 23rd congressinal district voted Romney Clinton Trump