Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: Kingpoleon on October 11, 2015, 10:47:20 PM



Title: 2020 Presidential Election: A GOP Challenge
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 11, 2015, 10:47:20 PM
President Kasich was elected in 2016 after beating out(in order) Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, and Carly Fiorina, the other top four members. He has since signed into law infrastructure investments and a small economic stimulus, which, combined, totaled out at $325 billion. A recession beginning in December of 2017 and ending in October of 2018 was ended quickly enough for a last-minute surge for the Republicans.

Quote from: Kasich's Presidential Cabinet
Secretary of State: John Huntsman, Jr.(R-UT)
     National Security Advisor: John Bolton(R-MD)
Secretary of the Treasury: Jim Nussle(R-IA)
    Chairman of the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh(R-DC)
Secretary of Defense: Allen Weh(R-NM)
Attorney General: Chris Christie(R-NJ)
Secretary of the Interior: Gale Norton(R-CO)
Secretary of Agriculture: Joni Ernst(R-IA)
Secretary of Commerce: Hiram Ross Perot, Jr.(R-TX)
Secretary of Labor: Tom Cole(R-OK)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Thomas Catsimidis(R-NY)
Secretary of Education: Mitch Daniels(D-IN)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Sandy Kraeger(R-KS)
Secretary of Transportation: Bill Shuster(R-PA)
Secretary of Energy: Christine Todd Whitman(R-NJ)
Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Leo Mackay, Jr.(R-VA)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Pete Hoekstra(R-NM)

The 2018 Midterms left:
House of Representatives: 225 R, 209 D
Speaker of the House of Representatives: Adam Kinzinger(172 R, 58 D = 223)
Senate: 55 R + 1 I(King), 43 D + 1 I(Sanders)

After gay marriage polling hit 64-31 in 2019, President Kasich would become the first incumbent Republican President to endorse it. He stated that his opinion was changed after giving a story of a gay couple he had met recently. Following this statement on June 1, 2019, the Republicans reached a 54-41 support for it within six months.

Congressman Garrett is challenging President Kasich mostly on the basis of gay marriage. Of the remaining 23 from 36 Congressmen in 2016, fifteen voted to endorse Garrett. Eight Congresspeople have endorsed Garrett from outside the Caucus.

People in the caucus who have resigned because of this include:
- Vice-Chairman Justin Amash
- Representative Thomas Massie
- Representative Scott Perry

This leaves the Caucus with 20 known members and approximately another thirty-five who commonly align with it. Besides the House Caucus, Senator Ted Cruz and Governor Sam Brownback have endorsed Garrett.

President Kasich has 54-43 approval-disapproval ratings on January 1, 2020. How does this election go?
[Note: I think potential Democratic nominees include:
- Gov. Gavin Newsom
- Sen. Cory Booker
- Sen. Claire McCaskill
- Sen. Ron Wyden
- Rep. Keith Ellison