Talk Elections

According to SurveyUSA, John Hoeven is the most popular governor in the entire U.S. and Bob Taft is the least popular in the U.S.

http://www.surveyusa.com/50governorsrated051005.htm

One interesting finding: There's little difference in approval rating by political party. The average approval of Republicans is 48.6%; for Democrats it's 48.1%.

Rendell - 48% approve   43% disapprove

Hahaha! Hey PA Dems, keep telling yourself Rendell is still Mr. Popular and he is a lock in 2006. You might be in for a big surprise.

Another interesting one is NJ.

Codey - 41% approve  40% disapprove

Now I know Codey isn't running for re-election but that's certainly not a good sign for NJ Dems.

I found Schwarzenegger's numbers the most shocking:
40% Approve            56% Disapprove

I wonder if they're that accurate for him. I know Rendell has been sliding. Schwarzenegger was slipping, too, but I'm surprised to see him down that much.

I can't remember what Brad Henry's approval rating is, but I do know he ranks 10th in the United States.

Granholm's numbers seem off, too.

Good to see that the new Democratic governor of NH is dong well in the approval ratings (although 20% had no opinion/didn't know!)

19% for Bob Taft?  Doesn't surprise me in the slightest.  Thank God there's not much more of him left to go.

These names sprung out at me:

Christine Gregoire (D-WA): 36% approve, 58% disapprove.  Not bad going for only a couple of months.  That ballot fiasco has really done some damage.

George Pataki (R-NY): 36% approve, 56% disapprove.  The one man wrecking ball of the NY GOP continues to plummet.

Rick Perry (R-TX): 38% approve, 48% disapprove.  Hmmm....Hutchison could do well to capitalize on this.

Jeb Bush (R-FL): 49% approve, 46% disapprove.  Really?  I thought he was much more popular than that.

this also surprised me, considering that Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D -OR) is supposedly coasting to an easy re-election victory: 36% approve, 48%  disapprove.

is this an indirect effect of the success of that property rights initiative passed just last year, or is it something else? 

Strange, every Democratic governor in a red state has a high approval rating.

Dave Freudenthal, Brian Schweitzer, Janet Napolitano, Brad Henry, Joe Manchin, Mark Warner, Kathleen Sebelius, Mike Easley. Bill Richardson

Can some of these governors go on to win Senate seats or even the Presidency?

Brad Henry's numbers are 59% Approve and 30% Disapprove.  Again we're 10th and are sandwiched between Gov. Linda Lingle of Hawaii (9th) and Gov. Brian Shweitzer of Montana (11th).

I think the reason Brad Henry is so popular in a red state, is remember, we usually vote Democrat at the state and local levels.

No, they win local races, Senatorial/Presidential races are national races and more partisan. Warner could carry VA and Richardson NM, but that's it.

I approve :(

He's certainly better than the last few scumbags.

What did he do that's so bad? I heard he's a RINO.

I knew it'd be bad, but not this bad!

Frank Murkowski   (R-AK)   
27% Approve   
66% Disapprove

^ Why do you think so many people disapprove of him?

()

This one shocked me...

Jennifer Granholm  A:  36%  D:  57%

I thought she was extremley popular and a definite lock for re-election?

Gregoire isn't that bad but I hope she doesn't run for re-election.

Ed rendeLl is going 2 win by a bazillion points lol lo

Jim Doyle   D   41%   49%

Run Tommy! Run!

Janet Napolitano   D   59%   32%

This must be why all her challengers are leaving the race.

Rod Blagojevich   D   36%   54%

Yet Blagojevich is cited as a possible 2008 contender?

Mitch Daniels   R   42%   49%

I feel sorry for Kernan, Daniels went back on most of his promises.

Ernie Fletcher   R   36%   50%

*waits for Bandit*

Tim Pawlenty   R   54%   38%

BRTD?

Haley Barbour   R   37%   55%

Dear Barbour, what has happened to thee?

---

Newest Edition to the List of World Wonders
George Pataki   R   36%   56%
Jennifer Granholm   D   36%   57%

Phil Bredesen has 12% higher approval among Republicans than Democrats.... sheesh!   (61% of GOP approve of Bredesen, vs. 49% of Democrats)

The good news in all of that is that his base is weak and that all we have to do is get the word out to ours that Philly is a snake in the grass!  The bad news is.... um... well... our folks like the guy :P

Why don't you like him?

Well, I just (D)on't.

Oh, come on... You can vote for a Democrat. Really ;).

Heineman looks good, assuming he challenges Nelson and doesn't die fighting a losing battle for Governor.

Ehrlich not too bad actually... internals look quite good. Romney not great but not horrible-- he should run for reelection IMHO.

So far as Pawlenty... when you're hot, you're hot.

And how about some love for Mrs. Lingle down there in Hawaii?

She'll probably win re-election (unless the GOP comes up with a good candidate), but the main reason behind the approval rating is because, to put it bluntly...

Michigan's economy is in the sh*tter.

Economic conditions are influencing the fact that a lot of Governors in the Sun Belt are in good shape approval-wise, whereas a lot of governors in the Rust Belt are in terrible shape approval-wise. (Bob Taft is just an idiot, nothing affects him)

I'll deal with the states that I know that don't fit this condition in my next post.

Also, keep in mind that at least 1 out of every 20 polls is going to be an outlier, pretty much guarantees there's going to be at least 2-3 polls here that are totally wrong.  I'll give my impressions as to which ones they probably are in the next post too.

I never thought I'd be defending the Taft family, but he is being unfairly hated by his own party.

The reason he opposed the gay marriage bill was because it will cause companies to not create jobs in Ohio, since the state's ban was extreme and banned a lot more gay rights than just marriage. Taft was trying to attract business to Ohio and the Republicans still hate him! This is proof the GOP is totally dominated by Christian fundamentalists.

I don't know anything about his tax bill but thats probably just the usual Republican whining about taxes, which never ends, no matter how low taxes are.

yeah, this seems way off.  She was extremely popular, for a while.  Now her ratings are dropping.  But that amount seems unreasonable.  Last I heard, about two weeks ago she was at 51% approval.  As for reelection, she's not a sure thing anymore, but still has good chances.

Seeing as about 1 in 20 polls blow up and there are 50 here...

Holy sh**t, Arnold is big trouble. 40% approve, 56% disapprove. Everyone was saying how "invincible" he was a few months ago. Too bad Bush never got those sort of numbers. Hey, it's stilla little better than Pataki's 36% - 56%. Those numbers make me happy.

Not exactly news though; the Tobbaco lobbyists favourite politician's approval ratings have been in the toilet for about a year.
He's got one term written all over him.

Blow up is a rather unprecise term. Perhaps you mean are outside of the 95% MOE, which is about 4% for samples of n=600. We can still be very sure that Arnold has a net negative approval.

This is definitely some interesting stuff. I can't think of a more accurate polling firm than SUSA. Hey, when your competition is Gallup and Zogby, it's not hard.

jfern,

What are people saying about Arnold's chances for re-election?  Who all has jumped into the race, yet?

Interesting that all democrat governors in bush won states have apporval ratings over 50.

It's a combination of things, mostly centered on his total inadequcy to actually run the state.  We've all sat and watched as the deficit and recession got worse (particularly in the North East), with education funding all but running out.  His response was a massive tax hike, which was actually much worse for the poor people and did hardly anything to the rich.  He also poured money into totally pointless schemes, such as rural barn renovation, in the hope that he'll be remembered for at least one good thing.  During the bad flood season, he decided to take a golfing vacation.  Lastly (and this is really just the first few things that come to mind), he was nowhere to be found for much of the presidential campaign.  You'd think he would have at least shown some interest in America's #1 swing state.

As for him being a RINO - not really.  He said he'd try and "govern from the middle" and all that, but I think he meant "from the middle of the GOP".

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Jodi Rell of Connecticut. Late last year, after she took office, she had an approval rating of 70%. I'm sure its lower now. But she still has a good chance of being elected next year. In one poll she even beat very popular Richard Blumenthal 49%-46%. He had a great chance in 2002 but blew it for unknown reasons.

Now the Republicans here will probably dislike her because she signed the civil unions bill, but please remember that she is the Governor of a pretty liberal state.

Also, she won't give a reprieve to Michael Ross, who will become the first New England citizen to be deliberately  murdered by government decree in 45 YEARS this month, so she is not a RINO.

What do you think about John Hoeven in North Dakota? Do you think he could take the Senate seat from Kent Conrad come 2006?

What party is Hoeven?  If he's Republican, he might be able to take the Senate seat from Kent Conrad, but if he's Democrat, North Dakotans might just stick with Kent, unless Kent throws his hat in the White House ring, or plans on running for the Governor's mansion in 2010.

Thats my take.

Being that far north, how conservative/moderate of a red state is North Dakota?

He's a Republican with a 71% approval rating, re-elected by a 43-point margin, and with only 20% disapproval.

If by how conservative a red state it is, you mean presidential elections, then North Dakota went for Bush by about 20 points.

Thanks, A18.  I didn't know how much influence it had from neighboring Democratic Minnesota.

Back in November when Arnold had about a 70% approval rating (gee a 30% drop), everyone thought it was a foregon conclusion. The front-runner Democratic candidate is State Treasurer Angelides, but State Controller Westly is also running.

Arnold's approval rating has dropped since any match up polls, I don't think he has a 15 point lead any more.

I've been posting a number of serious threats to Gov. Rod for some time now on this board. He staked his reputation on being clean from corrupt government. The scandalous behavior associated with his administration look like business as usual to many Illinoisans. His public fight with his family tanished his original shiny image. His fights with the General Assembly has prevented any meaningful reform, and since the Dems control the legislature the public isn't going to blame partisan squabbling.

There will be a serious well-funded GOP candidate for Gov next year in IL. If the party can keep from beating itself up to much in the primary, it will be an interesting race. A quote from GOP candidate Jim Ryan in his 2002 debate with Blagojevich on the problems facing the state, "Whoever wins this race is going to be a one-term Governor."

Please Hoeven run for Senate! These numbers, if they're fairly accurate, bode well for Hoeven should he decide to challenge Conrad. A Hoeven-Conrad race would be a barnburner for sure.

Granholm's rating is higher it was in the upper 50's in the last poll of course that polling firm is not that good.

When Frank Murkowski took over, the state was faced with a major budget gap. To fix it, he cut spending from just about everything he could. Benefits for the elderly were hit hard. As well as education. To raise money, he proposed all sorts of new taxes. He wanted to tax studded tires and dip into oil revenue, which is supposed to go to Alaskan residents, not the state. The taxes and trying to get into the Permanent Fund hurt him the most. It could be said that he had to make the decisions that Tony Knowles was too afraid to make.

The unfortunate thing is that some people in this state actually believe that.

I think I can do a bit to explain the "red states with blue governors" phenomenon: perhaps the reason is that governors who are of a different party than most of the electorate are likely to be moderates, and when governors don't anger either party (moderates are less likely to), the independents and both parties like them a lot more.

A really huge gender gap of 16%.  He is 48%:49% among men, 32%:64% among women.

Now why might women dislike Zer Governator? ::)

Dammit!

Can't even do bad jokes properly >:(

It should have been Zer Gropannator...

I'll stop now

I want one of those "I love Linda" t-shirts from Hawaii. She's my favourite GOP governor.

No! Ruth Ann has 40/51! :(

I'd hate to see her cry :(

Tom Vilsack is doing well, despite PB's claims (admittedly a while ago) that most Iowans hated him.

I've never heard of Hoeven before, but...wow!

I've never heard of Rounds before, but...wow!

I have heard of Taft before, and...not so wow.

Ernest was telling me Sanford was in trouble...apparently not :S

Mark Warner has food numbers for a future VP candidate, imho.

Holden might be gone, but Blunt seems to be...should I make the obvious and awful pun?

AKSaber, do Alaska governors have term limits?  Because if not, I bet Tony Knowles could re-take his old seat.

Hopefully "I appoint my daughter to the Senate" will win the Republican primary.

Yes. Alaska governors are limited to 2 4-year terms, and Murkowski faces reelection in 2006. I think you're right. Knowles would have a good shot of becoming governor. But, I think he has his eye on the Senate. You see, Ted Stevens has said if ANWR doesn't get passed during his term, he'll resign. :( So I think Knowles is waiting to see what will happen there.


LOL.....  I don't know why I found that funny. :P

If Hoeven were to announce for Senate, would Conrad for Governor be a possibility?  The next ND gubernatorial race is in 2008, though, and I suppose Lt. Gov. Dalrymple would take over as Gov.

Hoeven was just re-elected in 2004.  Would he want to give up the last 2 years out of his 8 as Governor rather than taking on Dorgan in 2010?


I was just looking at the ND Governor's website.  North Dakota must have one of the best-educated executive teams of any state.  Hoeven went to Dartmouth and has an MBA from Northwestern, and the Lt. Gov. went to Yale.  I thought that was kind of funny for a state that gets such little recognition in anything.

Speaking of which:
New Mexico     Bill Richardson     D     54%     39%

*Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn* Gonna be boring in 2006 in NM...

NM-1 is still a hot House seat (Madrid @ Wilson???) and Bingaman-Benavides will be one of the most hotly contested landslides. :P

Nah, Wilson will pull 53-56% again, although lots of money will be spent. Madrid isn't a bad candidate - imagine Rebecca Vigil-Giron. *shudders* :o

You think they'll get Benavides to run for Senate? I keep seeing Dan Foley's name mentioned seriously - OK, I just read the main NM political blog and Benavides is indeed running ::)

Republican. He switched a few years ago and almost won the State Auditor race in 2002... ;)

I am curious and am hoping someone can answer a question I have. What's the deal with Ohio Republicans? From what you all have said, their governor is a major RINO, and both their senators are not exactly a sure-thing on certain votes. Like one of them not voting in favor of ANWR, or John Bolton (crying even.. O_o), firearm manufacturer protection and "assalt weapons" bills. Forgive the scattered references and such, but I have no clue what to make of it. Is Ohio like a RINO magnet or something???

I won't necessarily call DeWine a RINO...he generally votes conservative, although lately he's gone all McCain.

Bob Taft is kind of a RINO, in that he's increases taxes.  This has less to do with him having an economic plan than with him being an idiot for all I can tell.

Also interesting that all Democratic governors in states where Kerry won have approval ratings 50 or below.

From Political Wire:

SurveyUSA released its latest approval rating numbers for all 50 Governors. When ranked from highest job approval rating to lowest, North Dakota’s John Hoeven is #1 (and climbing) and Ohio’s Bob Taft is #50 (and falling).

Other key findings:
Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty has dropped 11 points since SurveyUSA began tracking: From 54% approval in May, to 48% approval in June, to 43% approval in July.

New Hampshire’s John Lynch has climbed 11 points since SurveyUSA began tracking: From 50% approval in May to 56% approval in June to 61% approval in July.

Alabama’s Rob Riley is up 9 points, from 36% in May to 44% in June to 45% in July.

Virginia's Mark Warner is up 8 points, from 55% in May to 58% in June to 63% in July.

California's Arnold Schwarzenegger has fallen from 36th place in May to 46th place in July.

Overall, the net approval ranking of Democrats was slightly higher than for Republicans.

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StateGovTrackingJuly2005.htm