Talk Elections

Clinton (D): 50%
Bush (R): 44%

Clinton landslide with Trump as an Independent:

Clinton (D): 46%
Bush (R): 30%
Trump (I): 20%

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1170a22016Politics.pdf

Poll included 30% dems and 20% Reps.

Now now, don't give Trump any ideas...

It doesn't matter what any of us do. The Donald makes his decisions without thinking.

At 50 and ahead -- looks like a winner still.

46-30-20?

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43-37-19 (1992)


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49-41-8 (1996)

What would the map of Trump support look like if he actually ran as an Independent?

I'm guessing he could take big chunks of the GOP nominee's numbers in the south, the mountain states, and the great plains. Maybe he could match Perot's numbers in the latter two.

Another poll showing Clinton leadi h Jeb, no to third Bush term.

An interesting note on the methodology is that Langer allows respondents to speak Spanish. All pollsters should be doing this, especially in state polls in the big Hispanic states. Something to bear in mind when looking at future polls in FL, CO and NV.

With Trump as (I) it would make 2016=1992.

That probably hurts Trump if rapists are allowed to respond to polls. :P

In 1992, the party of the incumbent President lost. In 2016, the party of the incumbent President would win -- but not with the VP.

Who's the polarizing one now? :)

Here's a good starting point.

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Is Trump now the functional equivalent of UKIP?

Here's a map of Trump's performance in primary polls across the states so far:

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30% = 0-4%
40% = 5-9%
50% = 10-14%
60% = 15-19%
70% = 20-24%
80% = 25-29%
90% = 30+%

So... not a lot of information, but if I had to guess I'd say he looks strong in the Southwest and mid-Atlantic states and weak everywhere else.

I think the GOP carve-up on a 30-20 basis would look something like this:
(Blue = Bush / Green = Trump)

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And Hillary would win like....everything.  Lets hope this never comes to pass.