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Title: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: A18 on May 01, 2005, 10:09:31 PM What would the 2000 and 2004 EV results have been?
Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors Post by: nini2287 on May 01, 2005, 10:17:26 PM I don't think all the 2004 numbers, but I think we did this once and Bush slightly increased his lead in 2000
Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: minionofmidas on May 02, 2005, 01:26:02 AM ...nobody knows, since in that case there'd either be much less gerrymandering or a revolution would have occurred ages ago. :)
Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors Post by: bgwah on May 03, 2005, 06:47:02 PM Have Nebraska or Maine ever actually split their votes?
Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors Post by: Alcon on May 03, 2005, 06:47:24 PM Have Nebraska or Maine ever actually split their votes? Nope. Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors Post by: True Democrat on May 03, 2005, 08:06:55 PM Have Nebraska or Maine ever actually split their votes? Nope. I think 2000 was the closest for Maine, though. Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors Post by: A18 on May 04, 2005, 06:25:15 AM ...nobody knows, since in that case there'd either be much less gerrymandering or a revolution would have occurred ages ago. :) Let's just assume we had the same districts, and no rebellion had yet occured. :) Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: minionofmidas on May 04, 2005, 07:06:06 AM 2000 data is on this site if you look closely. I think you have to be a member to get the exact data, but you can do a map count. Anyways Bush wins.
2004 data isn't completely compiled yet, but I don't doubt Bush wins again. Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: minionofmidas on May 04, 2005, 07:33:27 AM Depending on two seats that Dave considers too close to call, and my reading of the California map, Bush would have had anything from 283 to 286 EVs in 2000.
Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: minionofmidas on May 04, 2005, 07:58:57 AM Going by the states that are up,
Bush gains 14 Kerry loses 11 due to about equal parts to reapportionment, regerrymandering and the Republicans' larger majority. Tossup/don't know loses 1 (I can decipher the California map, being more comfortable with the new districts. There is a new tctc district in NC to replace the one in TN.) Overall gain of 2 because the states not up yet lost 2 seats net. They are: Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, and Washington. Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: J. J. on May 04, 2005, 04:12:30 PM I believe that Bush would have gained 9-11 seats from PA.
Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors... Post by: zorkpolitics on May 04, 2005, 09:56:41 PM Bush would have done much better
The data can be found at Polidata: 2000 Bush would have won 288 to 250 Bush +17 2004 Bush woudl have won 317 to 221 Bush +31 see: http://www.polidata.org/prcd/default.htm Title: Re: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors Post by: The Vorlon on May 14, 2005, 05:23:31 PM Have Nebraska or Maine ever actually split their votes? Nope. I think 2000 was the closest for Maine, though. Gore carried Maine2 by a tad under 2% in 2000 if I recall |