Talk Elections

Let's say trends continue as is. Atlanta and NoVa make Georgia and Virginia blue. At the same time, the Republican Party becomes the party of libertarianism as a new generation of Paulites comes to power. What would an electoral map look like with that type of candidate, one who is libertarian in nature (ie soft on immigration, social issues), vs. a Democrat that is part of the party that evolved to be more far-left, canceling out the supposed revived Solid South?

If both sides cave to where their "emerging" momentum seems to be coming from (libertarianism which downplays social issues for the GOP and true economic populism in the style of Elizabeth Warren for the Dems), I could see this as a base map in a few decades:

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Dark Color = Solid for that party
Light Color = Usually sides with that party but could flip with the right candidate/climate
Gray = Tossup

Make Nevada blue. It's a libertarian state

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Not a good move for the GOP electorally

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Flip Ohio in this map to GOP
GOP: 313
Dem: 225

West Virginia stays GOP

Georgia and Virginia are unlikely to go Democrat in a normal year if the party moves much to the left.

It would probably resemble the 1976 map. The poor South, and rust belt vote Democrat. The Plains, West Coast, and rural New England vote GOP.

This sounds about right.

Republicans would lose SOME support from the evangelical and Southern White voting blocs, but I think enough of them have bought into fiscal conservatism over the last few decades, plus a more libertarian GOP would still be conservative on the issue of gun control, so I think enough would stay to not necessarily lose that many states.  Democrats would likely go back to a New Deal era approach of focusing on propping up the middle- and working-classes.  My best guess for a 2024 election between Brian Sandoval and some fiscally progressive Democrat who focuses more on "fiscal populism" than they do on wedge social issues:

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A loss in some support from working class Whites in Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi combined with steady Black support flips those states.  Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia return to voting based on their economic interests.  Upper New England "comes home" to the Republicans.  The Pacific Northwest is the closest region, with the GOP winning over just enough swing voters in the suburbs of Portland and Seattle to carry those states.

I don't know where people get the idea that a libertarian would carry Oregon and Washington. Sure, the eastern rural (already Republican) parts of those states would embrace a libertarian, but the cities and counties where all the votes come from in these states are too far left economically.

Doesn't Washington have pretty low tax rates or maybe even none at all, and aren't most of their Democrats pretty centrist?  I think a moderate enough Republican could peel off suburbanites there, as Tom suggested.

Sure a moderate Republican could win. I'm pretty sure there's one statewide elected Republican in Washington (SoS?)

But the stipulation of this thread was a libertarian candidate carrying the northwest. Sure there are things they could connect to the state with. But there's policy baggage with being a true libertarian, and if candidates are campaigning on wanting to abolish a host of government agencies, that sends a pretty obvious red flag. They'll keep voting for their left leaning and centrist Dems.

[Edit]: I also disagree with the map posted above that shows Dems making gains the South (LA, AR, KY, WV) if the GOP turns libertarian. (Mississippi = Solid D though ;) )

Common fallacy: 'moderate' in no way equals 'libertarian'

I don't see the map changing much at all, other than Republicans improving in suburbia around the country (which would really help in the Great Lakes, Mountain West, and some Northeastern metros). Overall, margins just fall towards the middle and the country becomes less polarized, but no ground-breaking change in the map.

A "libertarian GOP" to me means they stop fighting gay marriage, tolerate marijuana legalization, change strategies on the War on Drugs, but remain pro-life (from the libertarian perspective that it violates the unborn's rights), remain very pro-gun, anti-affirmative action, and permissive on other issues but from a conservative standpoint. On economics, they generally stay the same, minus the corporatism-lite. And foreign policy would be slightly less interventionist, but still "strong on defense".

I don't see the south voting Democratic outside of NC, Virginia, Florida, and Georgia, because they are just so culturally conservative and now tow the line on GOP economics. Just because the GOP becomes more permissive on social issues, doesn't mean cultural conservatives are going to go vote for the very liberal Democratic Party. The voters who voted for Bill Clinton and Democrats like him are all dead now. Baby Boomers, being heavily Republican, still dominate the electorate and will do so until Gen X and the Millenials start overcoming them, which will take decades, and that's why I'm confused by people who say Hillary can win Arkansas and Democrats suddenly start winning the South. Where will these votes come from? ???

In what way? A socially libertarian (weed, SSM, etc) platform would irritate evangelicals in the southern part of the state. And a candidate who runs on really shrinking the federal government, including the military, certainly isn't going to win over anybody in the northern half of the state.

Though they get quite a not of the vote, its mostly at the state level.  As other people have said, conservatives would oppose them for the Presidency and probably the Northerners for their elimination or Federal jobs.

I didn't mean to suggest that a libertarian is necessarily a moderate, but the topic said "a MORE libertarian GOP," and to me all that really implied was relaxing on some social and cultural issues.  The GOP isn't going to stop being Wall Street friendly anytime soon ... I mean it has arguably been that way since Lincoln.

Yes, but it was feasible to be a Republican and actually be opposed to Wall Street and business in general until the 1920s.

GA wont be blue before NC.

Also the libertarian party is quite strong in GA. A more libertarian GOP would capture the 2-4% the Libertarians get in GA. So I am not sure GA would be blue.