Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: SNJ1985 on January 03, 2015, 01:21:45 PM



Title: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SNJ1985 on January 03, 2015, 01:21:45 PM
I didn't see any thread dedicated to this.

Talk about the 2015 local, regional and general elections in Spain here.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 03, 2015, 01:39:56 PM
I was about to start one this month, when I had the time to write some little explanatory effort post. The election may be in November or December and, according to some rumours, even as late as January 2016.

If you have patience and interest, give this Guide to the 2011 Spanish Elections a chance. It was written by El Caudillo of this board.

http://welections.wordpress.com/links/guide-to-the-2011-spanish-election/


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zinneke on January 05, 2015, 04:59:21 AM
I wonder the remaining traditional Left in Asturias will switch from PSOE/IU to Podemos? Could be a decisive factor.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 05, 2015, 05:01:06 PM
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Clyde1998 on January 05, 2015, 05:10:59 PM
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)
Catalonia (9-13 Dec - link (http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/export/sites/CEOPortal/documents/dossiers_premsa/Dossier_de_premsa_-760.pdf)):
Podemos - 20.4%
CiU - 18.8%
ERC - 17.5%
PSC - 13.3%
PP - 10.7%
C's - 5.1%
ICV-EUiA - 4.6%
CUP - 2.7%
Others - 6.9%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zinneke on January 05, 2015, 06:06:06 PM
Forgive my ignorance, but what is Podemos' exact position on a Catalan referendum?

EDIT : I have just seen that the vast majority of their newfound supportters in Catalonia are from the PSC. So I imagine they are not in favour of a referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2015, 06:34:30 PM
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)

I think it's not a good idea melting all the elections in a single thread. Local and regional elections may not be as interesting for forumites as the parliamentary elections. They will be key for the developments in the second half of the year. However, it'd be rather confusing if we discuss them alongside with the general elections. Regional and local realities in Spain have some complexities, including regionalist and nationalist parties in particular territories. As for Catalonia, it has particular developments and a different party system (trend accentuated since 2011 onwards). Snap elections in Catalonia would deserve another single thread, as it happened with the pseudo-referendum held in November.

My idea was starting a thread on the General Elections with some basic info (parties, electoral system, election background), as well posting polls at national level here instead of using the Spain's General Discussion. I thought there wasn't a rush, because elections will be held in all likelihood by the end of the year and not too many people here is following Spanish politics. As you can see, someone took the lead. February might be a good month to start a thread on the regional and locals, because by that time will be announced most of the candidacies in the main cities and territories.

I wonder the remaining traditional Left in Asturias will switch from PSOE/IU to Podemos? Could be a decisive factor.

Asturias has little demographic weight in the whole Spain. It has a population of 1.054 million, a 2.34% of the country according to Wikipedia. I guess the 'traditional left' in Asturias may be represented by the towns located in the mining basis, which have been declining in population but are still important in the regional context.

In the EP Elections, PSOE won narrowly in Asturias taking 26.08% with PP second getting 24.12%. Podemos came third getting 13.64%, which was the best regional result for the Pablo Iglesias' party, while IU came fourth getting 12.9% (a strong result, but slightly below the 2011 elections). The right-wing regionalist Foro Asturias (FAC) did poorly getting only 4.23%. Although the FAC -party splitted from the Asturias' PP led by Francisco Álvarez Cascos- will likely improve that performance in the next regional elections, it would be far from its good results in the two consecutive elections held in May 2011 and March 2012.

In the EP Elections, Podemos got around 15% in Oviedo (regional capital and PP's main fortress), the port of Gijón (the most populated city) and the town of Avilés (formerly a seat of the steel industry). In the mining towns of Mieres and Langreo, Podemos performed between 13% and 14% coming behind PSOE and the IU, the latter getting more than 20% of the vote in both. The traditional left in Asturias is not particularly in good shape, with the socialist SOMA-UGT and the formerly communist CC.OO unions facing a serious crisis of credibility. Furthermore, a veteran SOMA-UGT and PSOE member was involved in the Caja Madrid 'black card' scandal. The IU has internal divisions and is controlled by the faction loyal to Gaspar Llamazares, currently MP for Asturias and formerly national leader. Maybe critics of the IU's regional leadership are ready to support Podemos. Asturias might be well a target district for Podemos to win in the next general elections, collecting many voters disappointed at the two traditional parties in the left. The MP that IU returned to the Congress of Deputies from Asturias might be in danger. IU would need around 10% of the vote to win one of the 8 deputies returned by Asturias; Gaspar Llamazares got 13.2% in November 2011. As well, the FAC could lose the seat won in the past election. It's up to see which strength shows Podemos in the next regional elections on May 24.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2015, 06:43:16 PM
Forgive my ignorance, but what is Podemos' exact position on a Catalan referendum?

EDIT : I have just seen that the vast majority of their newfound supportters in Catalonia are from the PSC. So I imagine they are not in favour of a referendum.

Podemos is in favour of a referendum, but Pablo Iglesias stated that he wants Catalonia to stay in Spain. Recently, Iglesias spoke before a crowd in Barcelona, bashing at the same time the ruling pro-independence CiU and the Spanish "Casta" represented by the PP government in Madrid (and the PSOE). Podemos tries to avoid the confrontation between independence supporters and opponents, considering that debate is not a priority for them. They say they want to decide in a wide range of matters, not only on independence. Podemos in Catalonia is 'transversal' in what regards that debate; there are supporters and vocal opponents amongst the membership.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 06, 2015, 10:58:18 AM
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)
Catalonia (9-13 Dec - link (http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/export/sites/CEOPortal/documents/dossiers_premsa/Dossier_de_premsa_-760.pdf)):
Podemos - 20.4%
CiU - 18.8%
ERC - 17.5%
PSC - 13.3%
PP - 10.7%
C's - 5.1%
ICV-EUiA - 4.6%
CUP - 2.7%
Others - 6.9%

This is not a vote estimation for regional elections, but for the Spanish General Elections (Congress of Deputies) in Catalonia. This is one of the reasons why I would not happy melting in a single trhread all the elections that will take place in Spain. It's going to generate confusion.

The poll was conducted by the CEO, a Catalan sociologic institute attached to the regional government (it's the equivalent of the Spanish CIS). The CEO vote estimation for the Parliament of Catalonia is the following:

()



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 06, 2015, 04:27:16 PM
I can't resist the temptation of sharing this article from the Very Serious Paper: 'Restless and Resentful'.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21637423-year-electoral-turbulence-lies-ahead-restless-and-resentful

Quote
SPAIN is facing a year of bruising, confrontational politics, with several elections that could result in dramatic changes in the way the country is governed. Not least, the constitution, which has underpinned democracy ever since 1978, may not survive in its present form. The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, and his centre-right Popular Party (PP) may soon find themselves fighting on two fronts at once: trying to save Spain from disintegration if snap elections based around independence are held in Catalonia; and fighting to stop the PP being kicked into third place nationally when other regions and municipalities vote in May.

Nor do Mr Rajoy’s troubles end there. A general election looms in December 2015 which could result in either the Socialists or an upstart leftist party, Podemos, ousting Mr Rajoy and dismantling economic reforms brought in to tackle Spain’s debt crisis. The country is now outperforming most of the rest of Europe. But the scars left by austerity and a lengthy recession have not yet healed. Unemployment remains at 24% and GDP is still below its previous peak.

The entry is eloquently dramatic: Disintegration and Chaos. The independence movement in Catalonia is certainly a serious challenge and its victory could bring serious consequences. However, if the writer expects that Mariano Rajoy is going to save Spain handling the defy of Catalan nationalism in the way that he's been up... Catalonia will be independent soon and independence supporters will reach Paradise on Earth. This is not unrelated with the second concern, the survival of the 1978 Constitution in its present form. The current constitutional text underpinned democracy for 35 years, but the multilevel crisis that is facing Spain is making evident that it's about time for a serious reform... Among other things, one that includes a clarification of the structure of the State. Only fearful XIX Century conservatives like Rajoy - the columnist seems to be on the same wavelength- think that the answer is resisting to change. At all costs.

The second paragraph overcomes the 'scars' left by austerity: dismantling of the middle class and the welfare state, increasing inequality, impoverishment. On the other hand, the economic performance of Spain hasn't been as brilliant as the text suggests. Real GDP growth rate was -0.6% in 2011, -2.1% in 2012 and -1,2% in 2013 (source: Eurostat). The Spanish government claims that now the country has the highest growth rate in the EU. It's false. The Winter 2014 European Economic Forecast says that Spain's Real GDP is growing by 1% and foresees a growth of 1.7%  in 2015. EU average is at 1.2% and 1.8% in the same dates. Latvia, Estonia or Ireland are doing far better. The adjective that can better describe the result of Rajoy's 'reforms' is mediocre.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115&plugin=1

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee2_en.pdf

No further comments on the following paragraph:

Quote
The timing of a Catalan election depends on the regional president, Artur Mas. He wants a quick vote to serve as a plebiscite on independence, but is also anxious not to hand power to his rival, the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) party. To that end he wants the ERC to stand on the same list as the separatist wing of his own Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition. The ERC prefers to be on a separate list of its own, but has guaranteed Mr Mas the presidency. “The important thing is the [Catalan] republic, not the presidency,” says the party’s leader, Oriol Junqueras. If agreement does not come soon, the election may not happen. A pre-Christmas poll found the parties neck-and-neck. But backing for independence has dropped from 47.1% in April to 44.5% now. Adding to the uncertainty is the rise of a left-wing party, Podemos, which supports a referendum but is mistrusted by both Catalan and Basque separatists.

On Podemos and the PSOE's 'leftist drive':

Quote
The eruption of Podemos, which calls Spain’s right “the enemy” but despises the entire political establishment, has set the tone for a newly combative era and changed the game. Podemos, which first appeared in May’s European elections, is now intent on becoming the country's biggest party. The newish Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, has been pushed leftward, ruling out a “grand coalition” with Mr Rajoy and denouncing as mistaken reforms introduced by a former Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, at the height of the financial crisis in 2011. He would alter the constitution, softening a Zapatero measure that caps future budgets and further federalising Spain in a bid to keep the Catalans happy.

But Mr Sánchez, appointed in July, has yet to secure the full backing of his party. The Socialists are losing voters to Podemos, whose leaders were once cheerleaders for anti-capitalism, debt-restructuring, “degrowth” and even Venezuela’s former president, Hugo Chávez. Podemos is distancing itself from some of such nuttier stuff, but the political programme it is drawing up will still be far to the left of the Socialists. The party wants a big constitutional rewrite. It may seek alliances with a future left-wing Syriza government in Greece (it welcomed this week’s news of an early Greek election) and with Sinn Fein in Ireland. Podemos clearly has Spain’s financial and political elites in its sights. That appeals to many voters, who blame them for the debt crisis and its aftermath.

Mr Rajoy’s hopes of eventual victory rest on his boast to have ended Spain’s economic crisis. Spanish voters seem disinclined to show him much gratitude.

Ruling out in public a "Grand Coalition" with PP can hardly be described as a drive to the left, it's just a matter of common sense realising that PP's invitations for a bear hug might be a suicide for the Spanish socialists. The constitutional reforms introduced by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero by the end of his term (summer 2011), which emphasize that containing debt is a budgetary priority, were enacted under the pressure if the Troika and were a vain attempt to calm down the 'markets'. Some people may think that the text of the reformed article 135 of the Spanish Constitution isn't very harmful in itself:

Quote
1. El Gobierno habrá de estar autorizado por Ley para emitir Deuda Pública o contraer crédito.
2. Los créditos para satisfacer el pago de intereses y capital de la Deuda Pública del Estado se entenderán siempre incluidos en el estado de gastos de los presupuestos y no podrán ser objeto de enmienda o modificación, mientras se ajusten a las condiciones de la Ley de emisión.

However, the perception in the Spanish people is that this 'reform' was an unacceptable imposition from foreign powers, prioritises fulfilling the debt terms at the cost of basic needs like financing education and healthcare. Also, it's used by the current government to justify aggressive cuts in public spending. Far from being an extremist drive, in denouncing that constitutional change as mistaken Pedro Sánchez is trying desperately to recover credibility amongst PSOE's centre-left electoral base.

It's certainly laughable the contrast between those concerns on the reformed article 135 and the fear that the columnist expresses on further alterations of the constitution, like that proposal to federalise Spain to keep Catalans happy. Is he a Rajoy's adviser? In any case, the article can be used as a brief sample of PP's stances.

The last paragraph depicting Podemos as a bunch of dangerous extremists may work to frighten good people abroad, but hardly creates an impression in Spain. The radical left background of some of the Podemos founding core members is well known. When asked, Podemos spokepersons don't try to refute sympathies for certain Latin American governments. They just say that the 'Bolivarian model' cannot be transplanted to Spain remarking the obvious: the big differences betwen realities in Latin America and the southwestern corner of Europe. As it happens with the Syriza's economic programme, Podemos has softened some key points in the economic agenda, which can hardly be described as 'extremist' or 'Bolivarian', even though words like "debt-restructuring" may cause alarm amongst analysts at The Economist.  


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 06, 2015, 04:46:32 PM
As it happens with the Syriza's economic programme, Podemos has softened some key points in the economic agenda, which can hardly be described as 'extremist' or 'Bolivarian', even though words like "debt-restructuring" may cause alarm amongst analysts at The Economist.  

With both Syriza and Podemos there is the interesting question: How leftist an economic policy can you actually implement in a small/medium country in a globalized economy with powerful financial markets without tanking your economy? And given that this is unknown there is also the issue of whether Syriza and Podemos will adjust more towards the center than necessary.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 07, 2015, 07:27:52 AM
There's no answer for those questions.

However, don't worry. Spain and Andorra are about to sign an agreement to combat tax fraud:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/07/inenglish/1420618570_101304.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is expected to sign an agreement that will include a system for automatically sharing tax information between Andorra and Spain during an official two-day visit to the principality that begins on Wednesday.

The agreement is aimed at making it difficult for Spaniards to evade taxes by depositing money in the small Pyrenean nation. The move comes in the wake of last summer’s scandal in which former Catalan regional premier Jordi Pujol admitted that he had kept accounts containing several million euros in Andorra and other tax havens for 34 years. Pujol is scheduled to appear before a Barcelona court on January 27 (...)

It's a pity that our government has not deployed the same enthusiasm in fighting other Spaniard tax evaders by funding the tax inspectorate. Instead, Minister of Finance Cristóbal Montoro decreed a tax amnesty and our great fortunes have a wonderful tool at their disposal called SICAV, financial vehicle usually based in tax havens such as Luxembourg.

More on topic, Audit Court found nearly all Spanish parties guilty of financial crimes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/05/inenglish/1420477280_010065.html

Quote
Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC). The prosecutor claims that CDC, one half of the ruling CiU bloc in Catalonia, committed crimes in its 2012 accounts. Specifically, there are €1.7 million that the party lists as revenue from services rendered to the CiU and various foundations, but which are not properly documented. The only evidence of these services are a few “internal notes” that fail to confirm whether the services existed in the first place.

CDC also made contributions to its various foundations, yet failed to reflect them properly in the accounts. The main foundation, Cat-Dem, holds that these amounts were donations, which are governed by a different legal system from contributions. The party’s 2012 accounts do not include all incoming and outgoing money, says the report, noting that the financial activity of its local headquarters is not included.

Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC). CDC’s longtime partner in the Catalan executive, UDC, does not fare much better. The party’s headquarters in Girona was acquired with a loan of €402,016 that is “practically paid off” according to the report, yet still shows up as pending repayment. The party also took out a €9.5 million loan from Kutxabank, “which this lender has forgiven” to the extent that the debt has been reduced to less than €1 million. The prosecutor also highlights that UDC paid over €57,773 in expenses to an unnamed party leader, and that this money was classified as operating costs.

Popular Party (PP). The Audit Court’s report does not paint a rosy picture of Spain’s ruling party, which may be guilty of having committed “several tax crimes” in 2012. Eight lenders have provided information to the effect that the PP holds bank accounts worth a total €1.3 million that were not declared to the tax authorities. The prosecutor notes that the PP “has refused” to provide the Audit Court with copies of 34 contracts signed with alleged service providers.

The conservative group also accepted a €86,000 donation from a company that was awarded public contracts, a forbidden practice. Asked for explanations, the party said it had no way of checking whether donors have a business relationship with government agencies, and simply trusted their sworn statements.

The Bárcenas case, currently under investigation at the High Court, suggests that the PP may have accepted as much as €8 million in illegal donations over the last 20 years.

PSOE. The report identifies wrongdoing in the Socialist Party’s financial relationship with its Pablo Iglesias and Ideas para el Progreso foundations. In 2012, the party loaned at least €4.4 million to both despite the fact that this money would never be repaid, considering the foundations’ negative balances. The prosecutor also considered it irregular that the manager of the Socialist Party and the manager of the Ideas foundation were one and the same person. In 2010 and 2011, the PSOE also lent its foundations over €1 million that has since been practically written off.

The report underscores that it is difficult to understand why the party would do such a thing, then ask banks for a €14.7 million loan to finance a labor adjustment plan. The Pablo Iglesias foundation (named after a historical Socialist leader, not to be confused with the leader of new party Podemos of the same name) recorded its loan from the PSOE as a “contribution,” which is not taxable.

Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). The ruling party in the Basque region failed to include income worth €4.9 million in its 2012 accounts. This amount was the result of a strange and lucrative swap involving a large property. The prosecutor also says that the party unlawfully owns a complicated web of companies (some headquartered in France) whose activities could be providing a source of illegal financing. In 2012, the PNV had 357 checking accounts, savings accounts and investment funds worth a combined €3.1 million that were not included in its official accounting.

It must be noted that the Audit Court has never acted against any major party to date, has faced criticism for inefficiency and nepotism and having been notoriously slow in analysing parties' finances.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 08, 2015, 08:02:01 PM
I found a website called The Spain Report which might be interesting as an English language source of news and analysis on Spanish politics.

https://www.thespainreport.com/

I don't share necessarily the points of view stated in the editorial articles. I have read only a few of them and I have no concrete opinion of the editorial line. At first sight, it doesn't look bad and it's always interesting to me knowing how people from abroad perceives politics in my country. One of the editorials puts forward three hypothetical scenarios for this election year, focusing on the narratives:

https://www.thespainreport.com/13643/three-scenarios-spain-uncertain-2015/

Quote
The steadfast and often silent Spanish Prime Minister is betting on increasing the fear of Podemos in the minds of older, rural and business voters—to stop them from abstaining—on convincing them that the Popular Party (PP) has successfully turned the country’s economic crisis into a thing of the past, that all of the corruption cases are just a few bad apples, now isolated, and that Spain just needs to pay more attention to the 1978 Constitution. This strategy, combined with the dynamics of Spain’s electoral system (a form of proportional representation), which is skewed towards making it easier for Spanish conservatives to win rural seats and a majority in Congress, mean some recent estimates suggest Mr. Rajoy could hope to win a new majority with as little as 34% of the vote, the share Adolfo Suárez’s UCD needed in 1977 to win Spain’s first general election since the Second Republic.

Pablo Iglesias and Podemos have risen from nothing 12 months ago to sharing approximately equal pre-election mindshare with the PP and PSOE on a narrative of a broken, corrupt constitutional system that is not fit for Spaniards and the 21st-Century. Increasing numbers of young, urban voters have had enough after years of broken promises from the two mendacious establishment parties that have ruled the roost since 1978, 54% youth unemployment or €600-a-month temporary contracts with no future. It is now well past the time for rooting out a few rotten apples and more the moment to overturn the whole constitutional apple cart, chop it into firewood and build some other form of transport. Millions of angry, fed up Spaniards are readying their axes and Mr. Iglesias holds the lighter. Not only are the lying extractive elites doing their best to destroy all those hopes and futures, they are also being helped by the European establishment and Mrs. Merkel, so the euro project as it currently exists will need turning into a bonfire too, with the help of comrades in Greece.

In between these two increasingly polarised options, there is Mr. Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and what might, in other circumstances, be a promising Spanish Third Way of constitutional reform, which the PSOE would also like to apply to solving the problem of Catalan secession. The modern Spanish electorate has until now been sociologically slightly left-of-centre (hence the lack of competition for the PP on the right and a confusion of options fighting for the centre left), and the PSOE has dominated, but this long-standing assumption might have undergone a fundamental shift since the crisis began to take its toll, thus Podemos. The Popular Party criticises the PSOE’s lack of concrete proposals for constitutional reform, and it is not very wrong. Five months before the election cycle begins, Mr. Sánchez, initially nicknamed “Ken” for his square-jawed good looks, appears more preoccupied with restoring the vowels to his name on his personal blog and of taking selfies with a well-known Spanish adventure TV show action man.

(...)

The site translates into English news from Spanish media and its focus is taking "a broad, systemic view of the Spanish nation and its international situation".


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 12, 2015, 03:51:08 AM
Some polls have been released recently. It'd be illustrative posting the Wiki graph to see the general trend from November 2011 to December 2014.

()

Key: light blue PP, red PSOE, maroon IU, magenta UPyD, navy blue CiU, green PNV, yellow ERC, orange Ciudadanos, purple Podemos.

Metroscopia / El País (Jan 10)

()

Changes in the centre-left and the centre-right. PP and PSOE are the most adversely affected, IU and UPyD under the pressure created by the surge of Podemos and now Ciudadanos (Cs), which according to the pollster seems to be on the rise in the last weeks catching voters in the centre-right (1/2 coming from PP).

My Word/ Cadena SER (Jan 9)

()

Podemos comes first as in the previous poll, but PP and PSOE exchange their places with the latter falling below 20% in the estimation. Ciudadanos is on the rise too, but the estimation places the party behind UPYD -both parties are competing in the same ideological range-. IU polls quite low.

NC Report/ La Razón (Jan 4)

()

PP first, PSOE and Podemos virtually tied in the second place, IU resists on the 5% line polling better than UPyD and Cs.

For reference, El Pais (Madrid newspaper) and Cadena SER (a radio station) belong to the same media group are are alligned on the centre-left (PSOE). La Razón is a conservative and PP-friendly Madrid newspaper.

Two last pics from electograph.com.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: YL on January 12, 2015, 04:46:56 AM
For reference, El Pais (Madrid newspaper) and Cadena SER (a radio station) belong to the same media group are are alligned on the centre-left (PSOE). La Razón is a conservative and PP-friendly Madrid newspaper.

Would you expect a poll for La Razón to show a pro-PP bias in line with its editorial line?  (Or, more generally, do Spanish polls' house effects tend to reflect the political biases of those who commission them?)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 12, 2015, 12:14:35 PM
In the case of La Razón it's possible, yes. The polls conducted by Metroscopia in El País are placing PSOE higher than the rest and PP lower, with some weird oscillations which can be due to methodology. If you have a mean mind, you might suspect some bias being El País one of the few media where you can read some kind words about the erratic PSOE leadership. In the case of other media, it's harder to say. Sigma Dos, which works for El Mundo, used to have a tendency to overestimate PP in the past, but now is amongst the pollsters which places Podemos higher. The polls conducted by Celeste-Tel in eldiario.es (an online paper somewhat close to Podemos) are amongst the most 'conservative' in the vote estimation.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 12, 2015, 01:04:23 PM
Eldiario.es may look like closer to Podemos, but I've been told that the PSOE finances it... Not to say that Celeste-Tel's director is the wife of NC-Report's director... So, if any, they have a pro-bipartidism bias.


Title: Catalan elections announced on September 27
Post by: Velasco on January 14, 2015, 08:01:04 PM
Catalan premier Artur Mas announced yesterday that elections in Catalonia will be called on September 27, within an agreement with the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) to complete the independence process "Onward to Victory".

Mas proclaimed that the pact of unity "has been remade (...) to guarantee the process of national transition which concluded on November 9". His statement of intention means that his goal is the independence of Catalonia. The agreement reached with ERC will allow the CiU government to pass the budget and saving time to complete the creation of what Mas calls "state structures".

Despite the ERC pressed for an immediate call and gave the Catalan premier an ultimatum, finally the party led by Oriol Junqueras gave ground on the election date. However, they get away with another key issue which was bogging down the negotiation: the joint pro-independence ticket has been discarded, despite pressures from Mas and the civic pro-independence associations.  

CiU and ERC will run in separate lists with a "shared roadmap on the political process" which has to be agreed between forces. The document on that roadmap is already far advanced, according to Mas, and will contemplate the path to take until the proclamation of independence.

The agreement was forged in a five-hour meeting between Artur Mas (CiU), Oriol Junqueras (ERC), Carme Forcadell (ANC), Muriel Cassals (Òmnium Cultural) and Josep Maria D'Abadal (AMI). The main points are:

1) Re-validation of the stability pact between CiU and ERC until the elections on September 27, one year before the end of term in November 2016.

2) CiU and ERC run in separate lists .

3) ERC removes the threat to veto the regional budget, if it prioritizes the creation of state structures and the social area.

4) CiU and ERC will cooperate to strengthen the state structures with a view on an eventual independence, advancing towards a Catalan Treasury and a Catalan Social Security.

5) Mas compromises to prioritize social educational schemes, among other things concluding a law on professional training.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 15, 2015, 04:29:30 PM
The ERC - CiU gap seems a lot narrower than it was when the common list was first proposed, so Mas may not be losing as much.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2015, 12:34:43 AM
Actually, the compromises made by Mas to keep the unity between CiU and ERC have been ridiculous. From a tactical point of view, Mas manages to survive and is still the 'pilot' of the separatist process. However, the strategy to attain the final goals of said process looks unclear. For example, it sounds fairly unrealistic the intent of building "state structures" within an eight month period, given that it's predictable that the Spanish government is going to oppose such move and Rajoy has the tools to prevent it.

According to the news, the path to independence is still undefined in the deal reached by Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras and Mas evaded talking about deadlines -he had a previous plan to achieve independence within 18 months-. It's considered a priority the cooperation between CiU and ERC in the upcoming municipal elections on May 24, but many ERC candidates don't want CiU as preferential partner and prefer to be open to deals with other parties in the left. Alfred Bosch, the ERC candidate in Barcelona, stated that the deal isn't going to condition his strategy to challenge the CiU mayor Xavier Trias. In the next Catalan elections, there are differences between CiU and ERC on the inclusion of independents (some prominent figures from the civic associations may run). Days ago Mas made an extravagant requirement to ERC, which was accepted: ERC shouldn't include independents if it was rejecting the joint list. Junqueras promised that ERC would never vote a regional budget again, but now agrees to pass this year's budget in exchange for tiny additional items in the reduced social expending -Catalonia is in the lead in expending cuts-. Finally, the deal may suppose that CiU and ERC will cooperate in order that Mas won't stand before the parliamentary commission which investigates the former regional premier Jordi Pujol, accused of tax crimes. Junqueras has advocated for a Catalonia clean of corrupts.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 16, 2015, 08:36:23 PM
OK, thanks. It is not clear to me whether Mas or Junqueras has really conceded more, or if they both gain in expected-value terms by quietly excluding independents and gambling for the leadership of the next government.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 17, 2015, 12:28:56 AM
It's a question of power gambling, indeed. On the issue of independents, CiU and ERC would score a goal in hiring people like Carme Forcadell, the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) spokeswoman, to run in their lists. She is a linguist and was once an obscure ERC councilor in Terrassa, near Barcelona. Forcadell is still an ERC member, but she retired from partisan politics when she failed to be reelected in 2007. As the ANC head, she rose to prominence because of her good organisational capacity, evidenced in the 'Prussian' precision in which massive pro-independence demonstrations were conducted. Forcadell is not in bad terms with Artur Mas.

In the Parliament of Catalonia, CiU and ERC 'saved' Artur Mas by the fourth time to stand before the Jordi Pujol parliamentary commission. The hearing was seconded by the rest of parties.



To date, we have the folowing electoral calendar in Spain:

May 24: Regional and Local Elections.

September 27: Elections in Catalonia.

November or December: General Election (Congress of Deputies and Senate).

As said before, I think that every election should have a separate thread in order to not muddling issues too much. However, I'm not sure if I'll have time to post regularly on the separate elections. If I haven't, I won't start a thread on the regional and locals next month -it'd be great if another person wants to-. In any case, I wouldn't start a thread on the Catalan elections before May 25. I hope that the Andalusian premier won't call snap elections, because this would be a total madness.



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 04:57:40 AM
I'll try to make of summary of relevant news concerning the major parties.

Let's start with PP and the corruption scandals.

Gürtel case prosecutors seek 800 years in jail for 41 suspects:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/16/inenglish/1421428986_419540.html

Quote
The Anticorruption Attorney’s Office wants a 123-year prison term for Francisco Correa, the mastermind behind the massive Gürtel bribes-for-contracts scandal that has tainted the ruling Popular Party (PP) at the national, regional and local levels.

The state’s attorneys are also asking for a 42-year sentence for former PP treasurer Luis Bárcenas, who was involved in the Gürtel network and hoarded €48 million in secret Swiss bank accounts.

Bárcenas also allegedly kept parallel accounts for the conservative party that suggest illegal financing and side payments to top PP officials.

Almost matchless in scope, the Gürtel investigation has taken five years to complete. It involves six regional governments, originally targeted nearly 200 suspects, and reads like a Who’s Who of conservative officials (...)

PP claims to be alien to the corruption network and having transparent accounts, despite prosecutors attest the existence of a parallel accounting which, among other things, served to fund building works in PP headquarters in Madrid.

Days before Mariano Rajoy made a surprise trip to Greece, in order to offer his support to the embattled Antonis Samaras ("promising the impossible generates frustration", said the Spanish PM in Athens), PP National Executive Committee met in Madrid. Several members showed concern because last polls are predicting adverse results for PP in the upcoming regional and locals, which may suppose the loss of several PP bastions (remarkably Madrid and Valencia). The 2011 elections gave PP a huge territorial base of power, which no party has enjoyed in the present democratic period. Mariano Rajoy tried to calm people down, assuring in another and more reduced meeting of the party leadership in Toledo that (according to his controversial polling chief Pedro Arriola) PP is still first with 27-28% of the vote, Podemos is second, a weak (albeit more resistant than its Greek counterpart) PSOE is coming third and Ciudadanos "emerges strongly". Spanish conservatives fear that Ciudadanos, led by the young but already veteran politician Albert Rivera, is going raze PP in the next Catalan elections. Esperanza Aguirre was amongst the most vocal in showing alarm. Aguirre wants to run for Mayor of Madrid, although the decision lies on Rajoy given the pyramidal structure of the party, which doesn't hold primaries. PP organizational secretary Carlos Floriano was appointed as campaign manager. Floriano is a man of María Dolores de Cospedal (PP secretary general and premier of the Castilla-La Mancha region) and is not the brightest of sparks, nor he is particularly eloquent. Maybe that's the reason why Pablo Casado, who is a promising young performer battle-hardened in television talk shows close to Aguirre and José María Aznar, has been appointed as spokesman of the campaign committee.  

Podemos, on the other hand, held yesterday a crowded rally in Seville on the day of its first anniversary. Pablo Iglesias and MEP Teresa Rodríguez were the key speakers. Iglesias accused PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez of "being lost". According to Iglesias, Pedro Sánchez doesn't know if he's in favour or against of a Grand Coalition with PP and he doesn't know which party he's supporting in Greece (Podemos is obviously with Tsipras). Iglesias challenged Andalusian premier Susana Díaz, "who apparently has more command than Pedro Sánchez" in the PSOE, to debate with him. Pablo Iglesias will be with Tsipras in Greece on Jan 22 and Podemos has announced a mass rally in Madrid on Jan 31, which will measure the party's convening power.

Meanwhile, Pedro Sánchez took his "message of change" to Washington. Only PSOE can implement radical democracy in Spain, told Sánchez to Democrats. He met with Obama's chief economic advisor Jason Furman and IMF head Christine Legarde, among other people.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/16/inenglish/1421407447_012734.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 06:55:57 AM
There's no answer for those questions. Let's wait until the o


There is of course an answer, we just don't know it yet.

You ended that sentence in the middle of nowhere - unless the o stands for something I don't know.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 07:24:29 AM
LOL. It wasn't intentional leaving that "o" drifting in the water, just a distraction on my part. I guess I wanted to write "let's wait until the outcome of the Greek elections" or something similar. Of course, those questions will have an answer. Sadly, I can't travel into the future, come here and give a prospective answer with the advantage of retrospective ;)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 18, 2015, 07:30:46 AM
Podemos won't govern on its own, so it is hard to answer.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 07:33:46 AM
Podemos won't govern on its own, so it is hard to answer.


Syriza very well may. The principal question of how far left you can actually go without tanking the economy is IMO one of the most central in modern politics. To what degree is leftist politics mere symbolism that inevitably will have to moderated if the party/parties advocating it actually got power and to what degree is it implementable? Although this is of course not the right place/thread to discuss it.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 11:42:47 AM
The question may be relevant in the case of a coalition government involving PSOE and Podemos. I don't think this is the likeliest thing to happen, but anyway.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 01:20:34 PM
El País released today an interview with Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, in Seville. Highlights:

- "In the next elections, there will be only two choices: PP and Podemos"

-  After remarking that Pedro Sánchez is "lost", because he doesn't say if he's supporting Syriza or ND, nor clarifies his stance on issues like the reform of Article 135 and tax havens, stated his opposition to Juncker -PSOE didn't vote him- but didn't support a proposal for a motion of censure made by the GUE/NGL in the wake of the 'luxleaks' scandal... Pablo Iglesias assures that he won't have difficulty to deal coalitions with PSOE if the Spanish socialists make an U turn, that is to say: acknowledging that austerity policies "have been a mistake" and assuming that "in this country is necessary to talk about a restructuring of the debt and the dation in payment*".

* In Spain, people evicted from their homes still have to pay the terms of mortgages.

- "Spain is a plurinational reality" and "the solution to the territorial problem (Catalonia) passes through a referendum" and the latter through a "constituent process", which Iglesias deems necessary in order that people can decide on the territorial question and other issues and putting all options on the table.

- Iglesias admits that it's not the same making a platform to run in the EP elections and making a platform to govern. He says the economists with which they are working told them that it's not possible to reduce retirement age to 60 or implementing basic income within two years, as it was in the EP elections manifesto.

- "Ideological definitions serve badly to understand the current situation"

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/01/17/actualidad/1421526937_154439.html

Pedro Sánchez counterattacked from Barcelona:

"Pablo Iglesias is a politician who lies rather than he speaks" referring to the aforementioned interview, in which Iglesias eluded to position himself in the right or in the left (the sentence on ideological definitions) and to detail promises like basic income. "Iglesias ran in the EP elections with a platform which now refuses, he said he was on the left and now not". Sánchez stated that, in contrast with Podemos, PSOE will take decisions once in power such as abolishing: the last labor market reform, the educational reform sponsored by the controversial minister Wert and the local governments reform. Sánchez didn't focus on Catalan problem in Barcelona, but talked about people wanting to build a homeland and bringing their fortunes to Switzerland and Andorra.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/01/18/catalunya/1421584831_463820.html

Links in Spanish.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Simfan34 on January 18, 2015, 01:39:01 PM
Podemos will not be allowed to win.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 01:44:00 PM

Strange phrasing. Hope you are not venturing into conspiracy territory.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: SNJ1985 on January 18, 2015, 02:25:12 PM
http://www.abc.es/espana/20150118/abci-avance-encuesta-elecciones-201501172057.html (http://www.abc.es/espana/20150118/abci-avance-encuesta-elecciones-201501172057.html)

PP: 29,3%
Podemos: 21,1%
PSOE: 19,2%
C's: 6,3%
UPyD: 4,8%
IU: 3,7%
CiU: 2,8%
ERC: 1,8%
PNV: 1,3%
Amaiur: 1,0%
Others: 8,7%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 18, 2015, 02:33:08 PM
I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 02:43:01 PM
I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?

Even if their economists had told them it couldn't be financed they should have kept it in their platform and blamed PSOE for not being able to implement it. Leftist parties are often a little too honest about stuff like that.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 03:57:14 PM
Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?

The current economic draft, written by economists Juan Torres and Vicenç Navarro, mentions "a state pact against poverty and social exclusion" geared towards the implementation of a minimum guaranteed income. Pablo Iglesias said in the interview that economists told him that such implementation is not going to be possible in the first two years. It can be interpreted as a withdrawal or as a more realistic approach, depending on consumer's taste. It has relation with the question of "how far left you can go..."

I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Well, they dislike Catalan nationalists. Disliking nationalists doesn't imply necessarily disliking Catalans, although dislike of Catalans is common among certain circles. I wouldn't say that it's a feeling shared by a majority but certainly exists, as some past campaigns led by PP against the Catalan statute of devolution demonstrate. Said this, it should be noted that Ciutadans (Ciudadanos in Spanish) is a party founded in Catalonia by Catalan people disliking Catalan nationalism. Only as of recently, C's is starting to increase its territorial implementation in the rest of Spain. With UPyD happens the opposite. Being the stances of both parties quite similar on the basic issues, the party led by Rosa Díez (formerly a prominent member of the Basque socialists) has been always extremely weak in Catalonia because Ciutadans already existed. UPyD appeals secular and liberal people with centralist leanings. UPyD people reject the 'centralist' label and talk about 'symmetric federalism', which means that all regions should have the same competences and treated the same, advocating for a re-devolution of Education and Healthcare competences to the central government. UPyD has been since its foundation a strong advocate for political reform and the fight against corruption. Also, it has a hardline stance on terrorism (the origin of the party is in the Basque Country, people threatened by ETA).

In the case of C's it's a bit more complicated. Ciutadans started as a single-issue party, opposing the Catalan laws on linguistic immersion and what they perceive as a cultural monopoly excercised by the Catalan nationalism. They also advocate for political reform and have a strong anti-corruption stance, although they appear ideologically more inconsistent. Albert Rivera's calls against bankers in the last campaign in Catalonia sound like unconceivable in UPyD spokepersons, whom likely would deem them as 'populist'. However, Albert Rivera has a better appeal among PP voters. The past of Rosa Díez  in PSOE and vocal secularism play against UPyD's chances among conservative voters. Also, Rivera has never been a leftist (it is rumoured that he was once a PP member) and now plays much better than UPyD the card of representing the "new politics" (the young and 'fresh' Rivera has an advantage over the veteran Rosa Díez). Rivera also shows C's as a 'sane' reformist option, in contrast with the 'experiments' of Podemos. Rivera says that C's wants to reform the country, instead of breaking the 'Regime of 1978' implementing a constituent process, and states openness to pact with other parties (PP, PSOE or Podemos) in order to implement the changes they deem neccesary. In Catalonia, C's grew initially at the expense of PSC (voters disillusioned with the PSC-ERC-ICV tripartite governments in 2006 and 2010) and in 2012 they received voters from PSC, PP and even from CiU in the Barcelona metropolitan region. Now C's seems to be eroding further the PP voter base. In the rest of Spain, the growth seems to be primarily at the expense of PP. In the EP elections, C's tended to perform better in PP urban strongholds.  


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 18, 2015, 04:37:58 PM
Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 04:50:00 PM
Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?

If with 'Castilian implants' you mean people living in metropolitan Barcelona and the region around Tarragona coming from other parts of Spain -primarily their descendants, because the big immigration was decades ago- the generic answer is yes. In the Catalonian inner countryside, where 'indigenous' population is supposed to be a majority, C's performs poorly. However, it's not strange to find that the sons and grandsons of immigrants from other regions are pro-independence. Catalonia is extremely complex and diverse.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2015, 03:51:55 AM
Tension between PSOE and IU paves the way for snap elections in Andalusia.

()

Andalusian premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) left open the possibility to call elections in Andalusia, the most populated region of Spain, bringing forward the end of term one year. In previous weeks, Díaz warned that  the continuity of her administration was conditioned  to not crossing what she calls the "red line", the "stability" of the PSOE-IU coalition which supports the regional government. Yesterday, she said by the first time that condition is not fulfilled: "we need a strong and stable government, and at the moment there's not stability". At the same time, regional papers spread that Susana Díaz (40) is 3 months pregnant, although she has decoupled electoral decisions of her pregnancy: "I'm very happy. It's something that concerns me and my family".

The estrangement between PSOE and IU is apparently motivated by the decision to call a referendum among the -always uneasy- IU membership on the continuity of the leftist party in the government. Socialists are upset with IU because that referendum means setting an "expiry date" to the coalition government. Also, another subject of discrepancy was that Susana Díaz prohibited deputy premier Diego Valderas (IU) to trip to Tinduf (Alger), in order to visit the refugee camps and giving support to the Western Sahara cause. Socialists understood that trip would suppose creating tension with Morocco, a key country for trade relations and security. IU regional coordinator Antonio Maillo said that order was "indecent". People at PSOE also blame national deputy Alberto Garzón for recent tensions, because the likely new lider of IU is pursuing an approach to Podemos. Regional polling suggests that Podemos emerges slightly less stronger than in other regions, but it's in a position to break the two-party system and be decisive in post-election deals. MEP Teresa Rodríguez emerges as the likely Podemos head in Andalusia. Rodríguez belonged to the Anticapitalist Left (IZAN), a small far-left party which recently agreed to dissolve into Podemos, and to the faction critic to Pablo Iglesias. Anyway Iglesias and critics seem to have reached an agreement, given that Podemos has some organisational problems in Andalusia.

However, others say the motivation is the ambition of Susana Díaz, who might be planning to run against Pedro Sánchez in the PSOE primaries which will decide the candidate in the next general election. Or maybe Susana Díaz, the woman "who apparently has more command than Pedro Sánchez in PSOE" (Iglesias dixit), wants to strengthen her position in Andalusia by catching rivals unaware.  There have been multiple disputes between the coalition partners, but recently the regional budget was passed and that was considered "the best signal of stability". A snap election would deprive IU to fulfill some promises, like basic income and a land bank, so the regional leadership is trying to calm down the waters. PP, on the other hand, has a new leader who is a complete unknown and it's not faring good in recent polls.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 20, 2015, 04:01:25 PM
Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2015, 06:48:14 PM
Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.

Basque and Galician governments look stable, let us give thanks to the Lord.

Apparently, people in Pedro Sánchez's entourage take for granted that Susana Díaz is going to call soon -as soon as this week. The election would be in March (on day 22 or 29). Podemos and PP would be wrong-footed. The Pablo Iglesias' party is still consolidating its territorial implementation in small and middle Andalusian towns. PP's new regional leader, a certain Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is a complete unknown -well, I know that he's a pupil of Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, the Spanish Deputy PM, and little more- and seems no rival for Susana Díaz. The IU regional coordinator denied yesterday that there's instability in the government, and said he's convinced that there's not going to be a snap election. We'll see.

In other news, former PP's treasurer Luis Bárcenas would be released on bail paying 200,000 Euro. Bárcenas, who has his properties seized, will try to collect money among family and friends.

Good news for Rajoy: IMF predicts that Spanish economy to grow 2%.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/20/inenglish/1421749237_534488.html

Quote
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its growth forecast for Spain for the sixth time in a row on Tuesday, predicting that the economy would expand 2% in 2015.

Only Spain and the United States saw their prospects revised upwards in an otherwise pessimistic report that lowered global economic growth forecasts to 3.5% for 2015 and 3.7% for 2016, a 0.3% drop for each year.

The new figures were released as part of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, which is produced quarterly.

The organization’s forecast coincides with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s own claims about Spanish economic growth this year.

And José María Aznar is going to come in rescue:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/20/inenglish/1421751020_638963.html

Quote
With a busy election year now underway, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his team have decided to use everything they have to reach out to their traditional voting base: the ultra conservatives.

The Popular Party (PP) fears a disastrous race and has called on its members to close ranks. Not only is the PP trying to appeal to conservatives by sending out messages to victims of terrorism, it also wants to give former Prime Minister José María Aznar a bigger role in the campaign (...)

(oh my God ;D )


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: MaxQue on January 21, 2015, 01:11:09 AM
Is José Maria Aznar an asset or an hindrance?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2015, 04:51:54 AM
Aznar is an asset to keep hardcore conservatives loyal to PP. Aside from that, Rajoy will focus himself on the narrative of the economic recovery and the "stability". Needless to say that Rajoy and Aznar dislike each other.

On the left, two lists will compete for the leadership in Madrid representing the two souls of Podemos -although they reject such terminology or talking of internal dissidence-. The advocates of preserving the asambleary spirit of the beginnings will be represented in the list topped by Miguel Urbán (Podemos Ganar Madrid), one of the founders of Podemos coming from the Anticapitalist Left and personal friend of Pablo Iglesias. Urbán calls himself being representative of the "protest Podemos", whereas the newly elected national leadership seems to be moving away from the initial characterisation of Podemos as protest party, in order to become in a government alternative.  The list backed by the Pablo Iglesias' team (Claro que Podemos) will be topped by Luis Alegre, candidate to be the next regional secretary general. Alegre is professor pf philosophy in the Complutense University and member of the founding core as well. He wants to turn Madrid in "the metaphor of Spain" for being one of the big places in dispute and "an absolute cornerstone in the political challenge". Alegre wants to organise the party to kick La Casta -which in Madrid has the makings of a mafia, he says- out the institutions. "The guideline is transforming the social majority in a political majority". Carolina Bescansa -member of the national leadership, sociologist and Podemos' polling chief- talked about "a Podemos to win and a Podemos to protest", remarking the differences between both candidacies.

In Barcelona, the Guanyem project led by anti-eviction activist Ada Colau made a draft agreement with ICV-EUiA, Podemos, Procés Constituent and Equo in order to run a list for the municipal elections. Colau will top the candidacy and the rest of list members will be elected in open primaries which will be called next month. The third place in the list is reserved to ICV. The current ICV spokesman in Barcelona Ricard Gomà decided to quit professional politics after 12 years as councilor. His renunciation helped to pave the way to the deal. The candidacy intends to connect with social movements and the construction of alternatives "already underway" in some neighbourhoods, in order to "return the city to the hands of its neighbours." Previous polls suggest that the list would be well positioned for the mayoral race.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Donnie on January 21, 2015, 07:16:59 AM
From which parties are the Podemos voters ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 21, 2015, 11:24:25 AM
()

Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.

In the regional votes, the rise of Podemos has often washed away or diluted many regional leftists, greens, direct democracy activists, protest parties, regionalists and liberals.

Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 21, 2015, 03:26:35 PM
Didn't Vox do really poorly in the European elections? They often act as a primary for new challengers in Europe.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2015, 04:05:14 PM
From which parties are the Podemos voters ?

Take a look into the thread linked below. Podemos is now clearly targetting the PSOE's voting base. The battle is on the centre-left.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181490.100


Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?


Yes, it still exists. After failing to win a seat by less than 2,000 votes in the EP elections, it's like the Vox Party would have disappeared. I think some members have left and now Vox doesn't seem to represent a serious threat. However, there are still conservatives angry at PP because of corruption, going back on abortion or higher taxes (VAT and others). The government presented a tax reform that supposedly is going lower income tax this year (strange brackets; lowering includes the rich). I think the main threat is that C's manages to attract former PP voters on the centre or some angry people on the right. On the other hand, if C's manages to get into regional parliaments or councils in places like Madrid and Valencia, PP might find an ally. Who knows.



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2015, 04:51:01 PM
New poll: Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco.

PP 29.4%, Podemos 26.2%, PSOE 19.4%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 4.2%, ERC 2.7%, CiU 2.7%

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/Generales


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Donnie on January 21, 2015, 04:59:30 PM
So in one year from establishing to today's 26% in the poll above.
This is quite uncommon for a big european country.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on January 21, 2015, 07:20:58 PM
Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.
I would argue that Podemos actually gathered very few previous UPyD voters. The appeals are simply too far apart. Correct me if I'm wrong, Velasco ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 21, 2015, 07:24:07 PM
well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on January 21, 2015, 07:30:44 PM
well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.
Polls don't work that way. When a party starts to rise at the same time as another starts to fall, it doesn't mean the votes are trasnferring from the latter to the former. Concomitance doesn't equal correlation. But I may be wrong, it may actually be the case in that particular instance, we'll have to ask our more advised Spanish members. But don't expect it to always work that way, but I'm sure you know better.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2015, 04:51:51 AM
Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.
I would argue that Podemos actually gathered very few previous UPyD voters. The appeals are simply too far apart. Correct me if I'm wrong, Velasco ?

According to the CIS survey (October 2014), Podemos' voters come from: PSOE 28%, "Others" 22%, Abstainers 17%, IU 15%, PP 7% and UPyD 1% . The rest voted "Blank", "null" or "couldn't vote".

In relative terms, the calculation on "vote as remembered in 2011" variable shows that 46% of those who voted IU were switching to Podemos, 29% UPyD, 25% PSOE and 6% PP.

In short: former UPyD voters represent a very small share of the present Podemos' support, but in relative terms the loss has had a substantial impact in the small UPyD's voting base.

http://politikon.es/2014/11/05/podemos-y-la-centralidad-en-la-izquierda/

In that website you can read other analyses on the Podemos' vote, for example this one:

http://politikon.es/2014/12/10/quien-apoya-podemos-una-radiografia-de-votantes/

Podemos' support is solid among all groups of age except the elder (>65). By educational level, Podemos has a high support among people with secondary and university studies, but low among people with primary studies or those without studies. Podemos is strong in urban centres, but has a low level of support in small towns ( pop. <2000). The CIS' "social class" categories are quite strange, and I'm not sure if we can extract conclusions on them. In any case, the profile of Podemos' voters is interclassist.

This graph compares the profile of Podemos (purple), PSOE (red), PP (blue), IU (green) and UPyD (pink) on age ("edad"), educational ("estudios"), country/urban ("campo/ciudad") and socioeconomic ("clase social") categories:

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2015, 05:22:23 AM
Lots of news these days. Luis Bárcenas gathered the bail money and leaves jail today. Opposition forces are indignant, while Mariano Rajoy and PP fear the "Bárcenas show".

Unemployment decreased by 477k in 2014, with nearly 444k new labour contracts (temporary and precarious in an overwhelming proportion).

()

PP reintroduces life sentence despite opposition rejection:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/21/inenglish/1421853995_633290.html

Quote
Despite objections from opposition lawmakers, ruling Popular Party (PP) deputies were expected late Wednesday to pass the government’s changes to the penal code which, among other things, will introduce life prison sentences for dangerous offenders with the possibility for review.

The bill is expected to go to the Senate before being sent back to Congress for final approval by summer, according to PP officials, who hold the majority in both chambers. Judges could start handing down life terms as early as next year.

Maximum prison terms in Spain are currently set at 40 years without review for the most dangerous crimes. Under the new law, review of life sentences can take place after an inmate serves between 25 and 35 years of their term and depending on the crime.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on January 22, 2015, 10:00:01 AM
Maximum prison terms in Spain are currently set at 40 years without review for the most dangerous crimes. Under the new law, review of life sentences can take place after an inmate serves between 25 and 35 years of their term and depending on the crime.
Inb4 'Muricans come in saying "Whaaaaat??"


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2015, 11:03:43 AM
Inb4 'Muricans come in saying "Whaaaaat??"

http://es.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Murican

Quote
"Those Muricans think they can just push everyone around. What a bunch of arrogant imperialistic bastards!"

More news. Former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero confirms that he met with Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón from Podemos. The meeting was facilitated by former minister of Defense and prominent territorial 'baron' José Bono, who defended Iglesias' father before the Tribunal of Public Order in Franco times. They talked about Latin America and the Euro and apparently had "significant differences". ZP commented days later that meeting with Pedro Sánchez. Pablo Iglesias said from Brussels that he would be "delighted" in having a chat with the current PSOE leader. Pedro Sánchez, who says that there are "objective reasons" for calling snap elections in Andalusia, sees "no reason" to have a meeting with the leader of Podemos.

Chattering classes say that ZP and Bono would prefer Susana Díaz over Pedro Sánchez, but I can't confirm the gossip. Zapatero, who backed Sánchez against Madina for PSOE leadership, says that Díaz is "by far the best current ruler". Zapatero and Sánchez had distanced each other since the latter proposed to counter reform the controversial reform of Article 135, agreed between PSOE and PP by the end of ZP's term.

El Mundo has an extensive coverage (they must be rubbing their hands ;D )

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/21/54bf7606268e3e97278b456f.html

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/22/54c0cf1d22601d5d6b8b4572.html

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/22/54c017c022601d270f8b457a.html
 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 22, 2015, 04:00:47 PM
Velasco, what is the status of nuclear power in Spain? Have Podemos and the other new parties found a position on the plants?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 23, 2015, 03:42:52 AM
Velasco, what is the status of nuclear power in Spain? Have Podemos and the other new parties found a position on the plants?

According to the Spanish Nuclear Security Council (CSN):

http://www.csn.es/index.php/en/nuclear-power-plants

Quote
In Spain there are six nuclear power plants in operation.  Two of these, Almaraz and Ascó, are twin unit plants, as a result of which there are eight reactors in total.  There is also one plant, José Cabrera, which has now been definitively shut down.
These eight electricity generating groups are of two different types: pressurised water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR).  Within the PWR group, the order of seniority is as follows: Almaraz, with two groups (1980 and 1983); Ascó, also with two groups (1982 and 1985); Vandellós II (1987) and Trillo, the last plant to enter operation in Spain (1987).
As regards the boiling water reactor (BWR) plants, the oldest is Santa María de Garoña (1970), followed by Cofrentes (1984).
The Spanish plants produce around 20 % of the electricity consumed in the country, depending on the number and duration of their refuelling outages, which vary from one year to twenty four months.

There is specific info of every plant available in English language at the CSN website. According to the World Nuclear Association (the 'nuclear lobby', in other words), "government commitment to the future of nuclear energy in Spain has been uncertain, but has firmed up as the cost of subsidising renewables becomes unaffordable."

In 1984, Felipe González administration (PSOE) approved a nuclear moratorium. Since then, PSOE's stance is to keep centrals in operation until the end of service life, as well opposes to build new plants. In 2008, the Zapatero administration promised to close all power plants at the end of their lifetime and to promote research in renewable energies. By that time, the government implemented a subsidy policy for renewables and passed the Sustainable Economy Act in 2010, which intended a 20% reduction in greenhouse emissions in 2020 and a similar increase in the use of renewables. Some environmentalist organisations deemed the initiative as "contradictory" and "unsustainable" (Ecologistas en Acción). In 2011, the Act was amended by CiU initiative in order to extend the lifetime of nuclear plants beyond 40 years if the CSN reported favourably. Once in power, the Rajoy administration suppressed subsidies for renewables. PP opposed to the closing of the Santa María de Garoña plant, the oldest in service, initially planned in 2013.

Nearly all  parties, including Podemos, support the nuclear moratorium and the gradual closure of nuclear plants. Podemos in particular supports a "programmed closing" of plants, "assuring employment alternatives for workers". As well Podemos wants to increase investment projects in renewables to reduce greenhouse emissions, a programmed closing of coal and gas plants, supports energy self-generation, ban on fracking, etc.

http://podemos.info/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Programa-Podemos.pdf

PP, CiU and UPyD advocate for "reopening the debate" on nuclear energy.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 23, 2015, 04:17:38 AM
Luis Bárcenas left prison yesterday evening and spoke in third person: "I have no message to Rajoy (...) I listened his advice and I thank him, Luis has been truly strong." Bárcenas was referencing a SMS message in which the Spanish PM advised him to be "strong" in the face of adversity. In July 2013, El Mundo released messages crossed between Rajoy and Bárcenas leaked by the former PP treasurer, angry because PP's parliamentary spokesman Alfonso Alonso called him "offender". Alonso replaced Ana Mato as minister of Healthcare; Mato was forced to resign after judge Pablo Ruz called her to testify as "lucrative participant" in the Gürtel corruption network.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/22/inenglish/1421936207_172542.html

Quote
(...)High Court Judge Pablo Ruz signed the release order after Bárcenas’s lawyer Javier Gómez de Liaño handed over copies of bank deposits and transfers reflecting that the bail had been paid.

Under the conditions of his release, the former PP senator, who faces a wide range of corruption, money-laundering and tax evasion charges, will have to report three days a week to the High Court and is prohibited from leaving the country.

His family, along with scores of journalists and photographers, gathered at the entrance of Soto del Real penitentiary outside Madrid on Thursday afternoon waiting for him to emerge. Guillermo Bárcenas, the defendant’s son, said his father was calm and that the family was now “stronger than ever” since the PP corruption scandal broke.

His release has sparked concerns among many PP officials, who know they are facing a tough election year amid ongoing graft investigations and fear that a media circus will break out while Bárcenas is out on bail.

Among the nine family members who put up the money are Bárcenas’s siblings, aunt, mother-in-law and brother-in-law. The money was paid in five installments totaling €110,000, while the rest was deposited at a bank branch (...)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2015, 04:00:10 AM
PP was holding a political convention this weekend marked by the Aznar comeback, attacks on Podemos and the shadow of Luis Bárcenas, wafting in the air.

On Friday former PM José María Aznar led the way to PP leadership, as well posed some rhetorical questions: "Where is PP?" "Does PP aspire to win?" Aznar answered both saying that PP has the obligation to win the next elections, because it's "the best instrument to defend the interests of Spaniards" but it mustn't "neglect discouragement and suspicion". Aznar advised Rajoy and his entourage a "back to basics", as well keeping the party's head up. "Spain needs more PP, more State, more Nation and more unity, no less (...) needs more determination against those who want to destroy it. More rule of law, more reforms and more confidence". In his view it's not the future of PP what is at stake, "it's the future of Spain". Because of that, he encourages the party for not accepting "defiance" nor "separatism" and demanded "a credible project" for the country, "unity and courage". On corruption Aznar said that "it's a cancer that we shouldn't tolerate" and warned that "every one must answer for their actions", claiming that he can answer for his own actions "looking into the eyes". Former PM remembered terrorism victims on the anniversary of the killing of Gregorio Ordóñez, a PP councilor in San Sebastián killed by ETA 20 years ago.

PP secretary general María Dolores de Cospedal, who maintains that the country's choices are between "PP or nothing", seemed to reply Aznar. "Unity is the pillar of our strength. We have a project. Here is PP to serve Spaniards".

Former Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre charged against Podemos, saying that it's a mixture of "the worst of the most archaic communism and the worst of its demagoguery". Aguirre advocated for a "deep ideological rearming", stressing that "all of we are dispensable, but not our ideals and principles (...) even more when separatists want to break Spain (...) and populists want to end the Spanish State".

On Saturday Mariano Rajoy continued the charge against Podemos: "What system they want to change?". Rajoy argued that system allowed some Podemos leaders to study in public schools and get scholarship grants, in allusion to a controversy around a research contract won by Iñigo Errejón -who is a political scientist and the campaign manager of Podemos- at the Malaga University. The research director was a professor from that university who is in Podemos too, and some media claimed there were irregularities in that contract. Some mayors and village councilors took the stand, in a scenography intended to be a reply to the new rival: "I am a mayor. I'm electrician. I belong to the electricians' caste".

MEP Esteban González Pons, who often chats with Pablo Iglesias at Strasbourg, followed: "I believe in a Spain without castes and saviours", making a distinction between "the Constitutional Spain" and the Podemos "Soviet Spain". "Corrupts are the excuse for extremists to liquidate democracy"

Yesterday night, I watched Pablo Iglesias in TV and he was smiling while watching some cuts from that conference. He thinks the more PP attacks, the better for his party.

Luis Bárcenas, on the other hand, said that Mariano Rajoy was aware since the beginning of the existence of a parallel accounting to finance PP.

On PSOE, Andalusian premier Susana Díaz stated that her priority is Andalusia and not the socialist primaries in July. She's currently pregnant and will give birth by that month. Podemos is trying to organise the campaign against the clock, because everybody is certain that Díaz is going to call. There is concern in PP because Andalusian people doesn't know regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno. PP assures that internal polling places conservatives trailing Susana Díaz by 3%, so they think they can compete.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2015, 05:47:21 AM
Some regional and local polls.

Andalusia: Regional Elections. Invymark/La Sexta.

PSOE 39.6%, PP 29.4%, Podemos 15.2%, IU 8.7%, UPyD 3%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 19.

Basque Country: Municipal Elections. Ikerfel/El Correo, Diario Vasco

Bilbao (29 councilors): PNV 40.3% (13-14 councilors), Podemos 15.4% (5), EH Bildu 11.1% (3-4), PSOE 10.1% (3), PP 9.4% (3), IU 4.7% (0-1), UPyD 4.1% (-)

Donostia-San Sebastián (27 councilors) PNV 29.4% (9), PSOE 18.2% (5-6), EH Bildu 17.9% (5-6), Podemos 14.6% (4-5), PP 10.1% (3), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1%

Vitoria-Gasteiz (27 councilors): PP 18.5% (6), PNV 18.4% (6), Podemos 16.3% (5), EH Bildu 14.3% (4-5), PSOE 13.3% (4), UPyD 5.3% (0-1), IU 4.7% (0-1).

Council threshold: 5%

Sample: 3000 (all Basque Country). Fieldwork: Jan 7-13.

Edit: The poll estimates 0-1 councilors for IU in Bilbao. It also estimates results for the Juntas Generales (provincial legislatures): clear PNV lead in Biscay, Podemos comes second; PNV-EH Bildu draw in Gipuzkoa, Podemos third; PNV-Podemos draw in Alava, EH Bildu comes in a close third.

http://www.electograph.com/2015/01/jj-gg-pais-vasco-enero-2015-sondeo.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 25, 2015, 12:45:52 PM
Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Boston Bread on January 25, 2015, 01:39:18 PM
Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?
It's true of SYRIZA (not being as strong below the national level) so I think it would hold for Podemos, a similar type of party.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2015, 04:35:07 PM
Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?

At local level in particular, it's likely that Podemos will perform lower because of some factors. First of all, Podemos leadership decided not to run under the party banner in municipal elections for strategic reasons. Territorial implementation out of the main cities is not complete and, above all, people at national leadership thought they wouldn't be able to have control on local lists -they feared careerists infiltrating in them, among other things-. Instead, Podemos is going to promote or support local independent lists. They can run lists with other left parties on a local basis, but the candidacies must have a 'civic' independent character, never be formal coalitions. That rule has an exception in Barcelona, where Podemos will run in a coalition with ICV-EUiA and other groups into the Guanyem ("Let's Win") project. Local pollng is asking for Podemos anyway, and likely they will be present in the main cities under 'white labels'.

To the contrary, Podemos will run under its banner in regional elections. As well, they can run as Podemos for the Juntas Generales in the Basque Country and the Cabildos (insular councils) in the Canaries. In Andalusia, there is the Susana Díaz factor (the woman is popular) and the problems faced by Podemos to implement its presence in a large territory where small and medium sized towns have a substantial weight. 


Title: Andalusian elections on March 22
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2015, 02:01:20 AM
Confirmed. Andalusian premier Susana Díaz phoned yesterday evening IU regional coordinator Antonio Maíllo, in order to put an end to the coalition government. Election date is set on March 22.

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2015, 02:56:50 AM
It's true of SYRIZA (not being as strong below the national level) so I think it would hold for Podemos, a similar type of party.

That comment made me remember a yesterday's article stressing the five differences and two similarities between Podemos and Syriza.

Differences:

1) Radical Left vs. ideological transversality.

While the party led Alexis Tsipras is positioned on the classical left-right ideological axis, Podemos seeks for "the centrality of the stage" because, according to Íñigo Errejón, "the classic divide doesn't create hegemony".

2) Alphabet soup or political party?

Syriza started to walk in 2004 and it was a coalition until thee 2012 election. Podemos rejected the coalition formula since the beginning. In past autumn's foundational convention, Podemos made clear that it won't participate in "an alphabet soup nor in a negotiation between parties". Actually, Syriza is what IU intended to be since it was founded in 1986.

3) International affiliation.

Syriza belongs to the European Left party, which Podemos hasn't joined in spite of being part of the GUE/NGL group in the EP.

4) Electoral growth.

Between 2004 and 2009 elections Syriza grew slowly, getting around 5% of the vote. It was in 2012 when the Tsipras' party went up. Podemos got 8% in the first elections they contested, only 4 months before being established as a 'movement' -it wasn't a party until the October convention- and polls say now that it's disputing the first place... only one year after the inaugural meeting at a theatre in Lavapiés (in the centre of Madrid)!

5) Alexis Tsipras and Pablo Iglesias.

The career of Alexis Tsipras began at the university, he was a youth leader in the then powerful Communist Party and soon became in a prominent political figure, topping a list for the Athens mayoralty and getting into parliament. Pablo Iglesias was always linked to politics from the sidelines, he focused first on his studies rather than institutional politics. Since 2012, he was starting to be known by the public -albeit in a limited way- producing his own political show; later he reached a broader audience by participating in political talk shows at generalist channels. He only entered electoral politics in 2014.

Similarities

1) Podemos and Syriza have moderated stances on the debt and share a similar analysis on the solution of the problem, albeit the magnitudes of the debt are different in Spain (100%) and Greece (175%).

2) Podemos and Syriza advocate for the end of austerity and use similar rhetoric when referring to the infamous Troika and the "austericide".

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-Syriza-diferencias-similitudes_0_348915514.html

On the Podemos October convention, there's an article in Newsweek that you might find useful:

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/podemosradical-party-turning-spanish-politics-head-279018.html



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: swl on January 26, 2015, 06:48:12 AM
It seems to me that Podemos has also some a lot in common with the M5S. Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2015, 06:56:32 AM
It seems to me that Podemos has also some a lot in common with the M5S. Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?

On the use of the Internet, I'd say Podemos people is more savvy than the Grillo troupe. In that regard, they are more similar to Potami than Syriza. As for the political message, that of Podemos goes beyond the Grillo's "Vafanculo!", even though Pablo Iglesias et alii tend to simplify too much when speaking in public.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2015, 04:46:05 AM
Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?

I didn't reply that part. Sorry, swl. At organisational level, Podemos has right now a mixture of both. As you can read in the paragraphs quoted below, there was a debate in the foundational convention on the organisational model between opposite sides. Now Podemos is electing local and regional executives throughout Spain.

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/podemosradical-party-turning-spanish-politics-head-279018.html

Quote
The greater hope for Podemos’s opponents, perhaps, is of a rift between rival power blocs in the party. Having rather put the cart before the horse in May, the citizens’ assembly in Madrid was part of a two-month process to establish a comprehensive policy programme and internal party structure, and it has highlighted competing factions and approaches within the party. Pablo Iglesias and his allies have proposed a relatively centralised party structure and executive leadership, against the wishes of some militants who wish to see “all power to the circulos”. Iglesias’s team also faced criticism for proposing to skip municipal elections in the spring to focus all energy on the 2015 general election. “We did not come into politics to have a symbolic role,” Iglesias said in his speech. “We are here to win, and to form a government.” (...)

Otherwise, the commitment to direct democracy at the Palacio Vistalegre was substantial, if somewhat bewildering for the technophobic. Podemos have succeeded so far in part because of the weekly circulos in town squares, but also through online participation on the party’s web forums, on Reddit, and via Facebook – and they recently trialled the use of Appgree, a smartphone application whereby users in the bullring or watching at home could ask questions, make proposals, and vote on each other’s answers. The party’s policy programme for the general election is likewise an attempt to implement open-source, direct democracy: anyone could write a proposal document and upload them to the party website, and the proposals were then lobbied for, discussed, and finally, voted on. Almost 40,000 people voted on the online proposals.


Podemos sees the triumph of Syriza as a new political era that will come to Spain:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422267821_418365.html

Quote
Podemos, Spain’s anti-austerity party, sees “a new period” opening up after radical leftist group Syriza sailed to victory in the Greek elections on Sunday.

“The unfair and inefficient budget cut policies have been defeated by Greek voters despite the fear campaign,” said Íñigo Errejón, Podemos’ number two official, in statements to EL PAÍS.

“Blackmail has not triumphed in Greece, meaning it will be more difficult for it to triumph in Spain,” said Errejón, the party’s secretary for political affairs.

“The Greeks are finally going to get a Greek government, not an Angela Merkel delegate,” added Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.
(...)
“Hope is here,” Iglesias wrote on Twitter, mirroring Syriza’s own message following Sunday’s results: “Hope has won!”

Both anti-austerity parties have been playing up their ties: Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras was in Spain on the day that Pablo Iglesias became secretary general of Podemos, and Iglesias was in Athens last week at Syriza’s closing campaign rally.

Yet Iglesias is aware that going too far with the relationship could be detrimental to Podemos if Syriza’s performance in office falls below expectations.

“We are putting some distance between us and them because Greece and Spain are in different situations,” says Errejón. “Spain is stronger, its response capacity is greater than Greece’s.”

Instead, Podemos would rather restrict the similarities to the election results. As Iglesias recently stated on the television network La Sexta: “2015 will be the year of change in Spain, as in Greece.”

Rajoy, on his part, closed PP political convention warning Spaniards to not play "Russian Roulette" with Podemos:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422290637_539732.html

Quote
We cannot gamble away our children’s future on a Russian roulette of frivolity, incompetence and populism. We cannot,” said Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, using a play on words (“we cannot” is “no podemos” in Spanish).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2015, 05:17:33 AM
The graph shows the regional election results between 1982 and 2012. It's normal that Podemos doesn't appear, because it didn't exist. They will run in Andalusia, of course ;)

One of the main motivations of Susana Díaz is proving that Podemos can be beaten at the polls, as well she seeks weaken the IU and testing herself on the electoral ground -she replaced premier José Antonio Griñán in 2013, who ran as candidate in the previous election and later resigned in the wake of the ERE scandal.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422272758_563431.html

Quote
The call for the early vote means Andalusia will become the first regional measure of the strength of the Socialists (PSOE) and the national ruling Popular Party (PP) – the two forces that have led the Spanish political scene in recent decades – as they face the growing challenge represented by the rise of new anti-austerity party Podemos.

Relations between Díaz and Maíllo have never been smooth. On Friday, they held a meeting to discuss a range of rocky issues, including the IU’s plans to organize a referendum among its members this summer on whether to leave the coalition with the Socialists if Díaz’s government failed to push a series of reforms through parliament, including introducing minimum payments to cover basic utilities for all Andalusians.

The elections in March will also serve as a bellwether for the IU’s up-and-coming national leader Alberto Garzón, who could become the group’s candidate in the general elections. In recent months, Garzón has been edging toward some of Podemos’s social policies, while distancing himself from the Socialists, the IU’s traditional political partner over the past decade.

After communicating her decision to Maíllo, Díaz telephoned Socialist secretary general Pedro Sánchez, who offered his support in the regional campaign.

Governed by the PSOE for more than 25 years, Andalusia has long been a Socialist stronghold. But the party’s reputation has been severely weakened over the years by a series of arrests of past officials, and charges filed at the Supreme Court against Díaz’s two predecessors, Manuel Chaves (1990-2009) and José Antonio Griñán (2009-2013), in connection to a fraud scheme that siphoned money from public funds set aside to help ailing businesses pay severance to laid-off workers.

In making her decision to call early elections, Díaz also weighed in the Podemos factor. Even though Podemos has made headway in many provinces across Spain, its structure in Andalusia is not well organized. Its leader Teresa Rodríguez, who comes from the Anti-Capitalist Left group, is part of an internal sector that has been critical of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.

Díaz also took into consideration Podemos’s showing in Andalusian opinion polls, which is not as high as in other parts of the country. Voter intention surveys place Podemos in third place behind the Socialists and PP. The regional premier wants to help galvanize the PSOE, which will faces a tough general election in November, by showing the Socialists’ strong standing in Andalusia.

It's possible that MEP Teresa Rodríguez, who will be in all likelihood the next regional secretary, doesn't run as candidate. Podemos will hold primaries soon. Some locally famous persons or even professor Juan Torres (co-writer of the Podemos economic draft) were mentioned as possible candidates.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2015, 09:38:39 AM
Reactions to the Syriza's victory in Greece in the Spanish media.

El País (centre-left, PSOE) “agitation in Europe”; ABC (old-fashioned conservative monarchist, PP): “Populism Takes Over Greece”; Cinco Días (economic paper, shares media group with El País): “Greece Shakes Europe”; La Vanguardia (Barcelona, pro-CiU): “Greece Defies Merkel”; El Mundo (centre-right, PP): “Greece Defies The Troika”; the best headline belongs to La Razón (conservative, PP): “Disgreece: Greeks run headlong into the populist abyss”.

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on January 27, 2015, 11:08:29 AM
La Razón's subheadline is 'nos gusta España'? LOL.

Oh great posts btw. Please continue.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 27, 2015, 02:14:14 PM
La Razón's subheadline is 'nos gusta España'? LOL.

Oh great posts btw. Please continue.

Yeah, I agree this is a good series of posts. Thank you.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 28, 2015, 06:00:34 AM
OK, thanks.

Reactions in Spain included political parties, of course. Rajoy sent a message to Tsipras with the usual moderate and institutional tone, hoping that "the electoral result results in the formation of a stable government committed to the European integration project shared by Greece and Spain." Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos stressed that the situation in Spain is "totally different" to the one is suffering Greece and advised the newly elected Greek PM to "stick to its commitments, which are essential for returning Greece to growth". Espernza Aguirre remarked that "Spain has nothing to do with Greece, nor Syriza with Podemos", as well Esteban González Pons insisted on the differences between both countries and introduced ETA in the analysis, saying that Tsipras must be bad for Spaniards if Arnaldo Otegui -leader of Sortu (EHBildu), currently in prison accused of "glorifying terrorism" and belonging to ETA- congratulated Greeks for the outcome. In other words: Syriza = ETA. Socialists, pretty confused on their positioning in Greece, just repeated the mantra: "Greece is not Spain, the PASOK is not the PSOE, Syriza is not Podemos". MEP Juan Francisco López Aguilar said days ago that he would "salute" a victory of Syriza. Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias was understandably exultant and warned: "To be able to pay its debts, Greece needs a different economic plan to the one they’ve had until now. Greece is 2-3% of EU GDP, Spain is 12%. We are not in conditions to be threatened by the Bundesbank". As well Íñigo Errejón tweeted:  "Saqueo politics have already proven unjust and inefficient. The only thing left was for them to seem inevitable. That can be broken today". In a crowded rally in Valencia, Podemos secretary general sent the new slogan: “Tick, tock, tick, tock, the countdown for Rajoy’s government begins on January 31″. Podemos convened a mass rally "for the change" in Madrid, on Jan 31.

At this point I should post something about some uncomfortable issues concerning Pablo Iglesias -a certain Peter Pan complex- and other prominent spokesperson in Podemos, Juan Carlos Monedero -regarding the use of the money he received in exchange for consultancy works for several Latin American governments-.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 29, 2015, 05:22:45 AM
Caja Madrid/ Bankia scandal: High Court targets all 78 officials who used 'black cards'

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/28/inenglish/1422443024_651959.html

Quote
The High Court has named all the former officials at the Caja Madrid and Bankia banks who used “black credit cards” between 1999 and 2012 as formal targets in the corporate abuse investigation – a total of 78 people.

Three officials who did not use these cards are being called in as witnesses.

Between 1999 and 2012, executives and board members at Caja Madrid, which later merged with other failed lenders to form Bankia, were given credit cards that drew money from a bank fund, but did not show up on any bank documents or job contracts.

Recipients racked up €15.2 million in bills for personal items, and the expenses were never declared to tax authorities even though bank bosses now say they counted as part of their salaries.

The scandal broke in October of last year, triggering a cascade of resignations and party suspensions going all the way up to Rodrigo Rato, the former chief of the International Monetary Fund and a veteran of Spanish politics who headed the lenders between 2010 and 2012.

Under pressure from Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Rato volunteered to have his own Popular Party (PP) membership suspended while the investigation was underway.

Former officials include PP, PSOE and IU members, as well representatives from the UGT and CC.OO unions and employers' associations. "Who is who" in the 'black card' scandal:

http://www.eldiario.es/economia/GRAFICO-gastos-tarjetas-Caja-Madrid_0_309369334.html

The list includes 86 former board members. According to it, the ranking of expenditures with 'black cards' is topped by the former Director General of Caja Madrid Ildefonso Sánchez Barcoj, followed by José Antonio Moral Santín (IU), Ricardo Morado Iglesias and former Chairman Miguel Blesa (PP). 

Bankia was subject of a state bailout, the total amount of the rescue was around 20 billion Euros. The financial black hole of Bankia under the management of Miguel Blesa and Rodrigo Rato was estimated in 13.635 billion of Euros.

In Barcelona, the legal case involving former Catalan premier Jordi Pujol is underway. Pujol (aged 84) claims that his secret fortune came from his father, died in 1980. However, the inheritance is undocumented and the prosecutor sees "gaps and contradictions" in Pujol's story. The judge is trying to determine if the founder of Covergència is lying about the source of the wealth kept by Pujol in an account in Andorra. Several of Pujol's sons are under investigation for suspicious business dealings.

                                                                     
---

Podemos concluded a deal with Ganemos Madrid (a project of coalition involving IU, Equo and other organisations) a to run together in the municipal elections. According to a Ganemos press release, both agreed "a joint appeal to the Madrid citizenry to constitute a civic candidacy of popular unity". The details of the deal will be revealed today in a press conference. Apparently the name of the candidacy is still undecided; it will be neither Podemos nor Ganemos.

However, IU is broken and paralysed in Madrid. IU's regional executive recently adopted a resolution defending the coalition formula, which Podemos rejects. IU is facing a conflict in Madrid between the acting regional executive and the elected candidates Tania Sánchez and Mauricio Valiente. The latter are advocates of a convergence with Podemos and have urged the current regional leadership, already touched by the Caja Madrid scandal, to resign.   


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Simfan34 on January 29, 2015, 12:28:19 PM
La Razón's subheadline is 'nos gusta España'? LOL.

Oh great posts btw. Please continue.

"We like Spain"? ???


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 29, 2015, 05:13:32 PM
The joint candidacy between Podemos and Ganemos (a platform created a year ago to rally political organizations and social movements in the left) will constitute an "instrumental party" to run in the municipal elections in Madrid. The name of the party will be decided next month in a "citizen's assembly", according to Ganemos spokeswoman Celia Mayer. The candidates will be elected in a primary election that will take place in March. "In neither case" said "instrumental party" will form a coalition with IU, that is to say, IU must run in the primaries or they will be out of the candidacy.

The IU regional leadership (the 'old guard') intended a deal in which the places in the list were agreed between forces, as well as preserving the name of the organisation. However Mauricio Valiente, the IU elected candidate for the mayoralty, expressed before his will of running in the Ganemos primaries. Valiente attended the press release with Tania Sánchez, who was elected to top the IU list for the Madrid Regional Assembly. The Sánchez-Valiente tandem won the primaries held recently in IU and both are opposed to the 'old guard' which still rules the organisation in Madrid. Tania Sánchez raises suspicion among some people in the 'old guard', partly due to her relationship with Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.

Tania Sánchez is backed by Alberto Garzón, the national deputy who will be in all likelihood the top IU candidate for the next general election. However, Garzón admitted days ago that she would be removed as candidate if Sánchez is formally accused of alleged wrongdoing during her tenure as councilor in Rivas, a town next to Madrid. PP filed a grievance against her for having allegedly favoured his brother's enterprise to get a contract with the Rivas municipality.

The press release to announce the joint candidacy was attended as well by Podemos municipal secretary Jesús Montero and Inés Sabanés (former IU councilor herself) from Equo.

So far, PSOE and UPyD have nominated candidates for the mayoralty of Madrid. Regional deputy and economist Antonio Miguel Carmona will top the PSOE list, whereas UPyD nominated its current municipal spokesman David Ortega. The PP candidate will depend on the decision of Mariano Rajoy.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 31, 2015, 04:01:13 AM
The IU's national executive held an extraordinary meeting yesterday, in order to deal with the crisis of the organisation in Madrid. As said in the previous post, IU in Madrid is divided between the supporters of the regional executive and those of Tania Sánchez -candidate elect for the next regional election-. It was discused a procedure of expulsion against municipal and regional spokesmen, Ángel Pérez and Gegorio Gordo. The motivation of such procedure is that both performed "political responsibilities" in the past 20 years, when IU participated in the distribution of positions in Caja Madrid (later merged into Bankia). Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo held the position of regional coordinator during that period. Despite Alberto Garzón required an immediate expulsion, national leader Cayo Lara submitted a more moderate resolution which consists in "disowning politically" Pérez and Gordo and opening a file against both. To make things more complex, it's questionable that the IU national executive is competent to take disciplinary measures against the regional leadership, because IU in Madrid has a separate legal personality.   

Meanwhile, the Podemos "March for Change" takes place today. Podemos expects to flood the centre of Madrid, in order to demonstrate its public support. The March will end at Plaza del Sol, an emblematic place for the indignados movement. Front de Gauche's Jean Luc Melenchon, anti-eviction activist and Guanyem spokeswoman Ada Colau and several member of the PSOE's leftist faction have confirmed their attendance. Podemos informed that local círculos and supporters have chartered 260 buses from several places across Spain. Around 100 people offered their cars to travel to Madrid and others living in the city offered their homes.

Syriza's victory in Greece has given a boost to the Spanish party but, on the other hand, the organisation feels that it's under "scrutiny" and politically motivated attacks.

Juan Carlos Monedero, one of the most notorious leaders of Podemos, has been criticised after an online paper revealed that he billed 425,000 Euros in his own enterprise. That money was received in exchange for consultancy works -he advised several Latin American countries (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua, among others) on the creation of a single currency. Monedero's enterprise was registered in Spain and paid taxes for that money, although some people say that he should have paid a share to the Complutense University, where he is professor. The money was used in financing La Tuerka, a political show produced by Pablo Iglesias and broadcasted by local TVs.

In the news, PP and PSOE seek to finalise an anti-terrorist agreement. PSOE accepts reluctantly PP's reintroduction of life sentences to save cross-party deal:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/30/inenglish/1422640052_611838.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez sought on Friday to hammer out the last details of a new cross-party anti-terrorist agreement.

The deal being drafted by the government and the opposition will extend beyond the national arena to connect with European and international cooperation agreements on the issue, said sources in the ruling Popular Party (PP) and opposition Socialists (PSOE).

Those in the Sánchez camp were hoping that each side would make some last-minute concessions in order to obtain a document satisfactory to both parties (...)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: SNJ1985 on January 31, 2015, 10:25:00 PM
http://electomania.es/sigma-dos-utn-31-01-2015/ (http://electomania.es/sigma-dos-utn-31-01-2015/)

PP: 27,1%
Podemos: 26,3%
PSOE: 21,4%
C's: 5,0%
IU: 4,8%
UPyD: 4,0%
CiU: 2,5%
ERC: 2,4%
Others: 6,5%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 01, 2015, 04:14:55 AM
Plaza del Sol yesterday. The Podemos "March for Change" gathered between 100k (according to municipal police) and 300k (according to organisation) people. El País estimated 153k. In any case, this is the starting point of the Podemos campaign. "This is the year of change", said Pablo Iglesias.

()

Andalusia: Regional elections. Sigma Dos/El Mundo

PSOE 34.7%, PP 30.2%, Podemos 15.6%, IU 8.2%, UPyD 3.5%, C's 3.4%, Others 4.4%

Sample: 1800. Fieldwork: Jan 26-29.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 03:12:50 AM
Pedro Sánchez called for "unity, strength and go out to win" in the next elections. PSOE held a conference of territorial leaders past weekend, marked by the absence of Andalusian premier Susana Díaz, affected by a strong influenza (given her state of pregnancy, doctors discouraged her to take medication). Pedro Sánchez vindicated PSOE as the only alternative to PP: socialists are the "serious left" and the the ones whom fear PP. The socialist leader avoided mentioning Podemos, but accused them of being fuelled by disenchantment: "Spain cannot stand those whom seek recovery for the more privileged 10%, nor those whom fish in the troubled waters of disenchantment". Later, Sánchez picked out the main lines of his project of "safe change" that will create opportunities for Spaniards: "No more mass redundancies in companies with profits. No more rescued banks denying credit for self-employed workers. No more vulture funds evicting poor families (the Madrid Council sold social housing to Goldman Sachs and other funds, in order to balance the cash; families are subject of real estate mobbing). No more exorbitant salaries in companies that pay misery salaries to their employees". Programme highlights will be the creation of funds of active employment policies and to facilitate the return of economic expatriates; and fighting evictions by creating a network of social rented housing or negotiating a "debt restructuring" between the threatened families and the banks.

Jean Luc Mélenchon was in Madrid to attend the Podemos "March for Change". Previously he met with Alberto Garzón from IU. "The left is dead if it doesn't convince the middle class"


Two polls depicting parallel realities.

Simple Lógica:

Podemos 30.8%, PP 24.5%, PSOE 18.6%, UPyD 6.4%, C's 5.8%, IU 4.6%.

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15001-intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Celeste-Tel / El Diario

PP 31.1%, PSOE 23.8%, Podemos 20.9%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.5%, UPyD 2.7%

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/PP-levemente-aspiraciones-electorales-consolida_0_352065037.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on February 02, 2015, 03:24:50 AM

Two polls depicting parallel realities.

Simple Lógica:

Podemos 30.8%, PP 24.5%, PSOE 18.6%, UPyD 6.4%, C's 5.8%, IU 4.6%.

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15001-intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Celeste-Tel / El Diario

PP 31.1%, PSOE 23.8%, Podemos 20.9%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.5%, UPyD 2.7%

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/PP-levemente-aspiraciones-electorales-consolida_0_352065037.html

Methodological differences?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 04:51:35 AM

Sure. I have reasons to believe that polls are going to be increasingly unreliable. Either for the volatility of the electorate and the difficulty of making predictions in an unprecedented scenario, or maybe because fear is installed among certain people and pollsters might be tempted to adjust their methods. Actually, I don't know.

Edit / on the reliability of pollsters:

There is consensus in regarding the CIS polls as the best in collecting raw data, given the size of the samples and the professionalism in which they are conducted. However, the CIS is not necessarily the best in vote estimation. As for the latter, right now I tend to trust more in Invymark, MyWord or GESOP, based on their level of success in the past EP elections and my subjective perception. It's my understanding that NCReport, GAD3, Celeste-Tel, Metroscopia and other pollsters are quite unreliable. I'd say Sigma Dos is professional, but it has certain anti-PSOE bias (just the opposite to Metroscopia).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: DL on February 02, 2015, 09:46:09 AM
If the PP remained the largest party but Podemos and PSOE had a clear majority between them - what would happen? Would PSOE go into a "grand coalition" with PP or would PSOE and Podemos form a "Popular Front-style" leftwing coalition?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 09:57:31 AM
I would dismiss the idea of a "Popular Front" of any kind. The general election can place PSOE in the situation of being the kingmaker. In spite of themselves, they'll have to make a decision. Maybe they would take the easy way, allowing a PP minority government but not taking part in an electorally suicidal "Grosse Koalition".


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: DL on February 02, 2015, 10:28:10 AM
Surely the lesson from Greece is that if the PSOE made any kind of a deal with the PP that would mainatin a rightwing government - the following election would see the PSOE reduced to less than 5% of the vote and becoming even smaller than the Communists...


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Vosem on February 02, 2015, 12:02:30 PM
Could PSOE simply refuse to ally with either party and keep triggering elections until someone can form a majority government or a working minority, like Ireland 1981-1982 or Greece 1989-1990?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 01:43:35 PM
I don't see it. Imagine an scenario in which PP comes first, Podemos second and PSOE third. It seems to me that triggering a new election might have the consequence of PSOE suffering a loss of voters to Podemos, given the predictable polarisation of the electorate. I think it'd be a bad strategy on the part of the Spanish socialists.

If you have to trust Pedro Sánchez, the only workable solution for him is a PSOE minority government (I guess propped up by Podemos or PP, depending on issues). On the other hand, there's no tradition in Spain of coalition governments at national level, although it exists at regional and local levels. In all likelihood, we'll see a wide range of coalition deals or governability pacts in regions and municipalities. It's complicated to make predictions at this moment.

Under our current electoral system, a workable PP minority would need getting around 34% of the vote, providing that Podemos+PSOE+IU are below 44%. Someone made the calculation here:

http://politikon.es/2014/09/03/dhondt-vota-podemos/

()

Right now, PP is polling at best around 30% (27% on average). Podemos is around 25% on average, PSOE at 21% and IU slightly below the 5% line. If you look at the graph above, with those percentages the intersection of X and Y axes falls in the red colour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#Election_polling


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 02, 2015, 01:50:35 PM
A question worth asking is whether Podemos can sustain the support they're currently registering in the polls; those that rise quickly can fall just as fast.

(though, against that, it can be pointed out that the government is unpopular and that the PSOE doesn't seem capable of articulating whatever the hell it is they stand for these days).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ag on February 02, 2015, 08:58:51 PM
If there is a difficulty forming a government, could there be a constitutional role for the King?

One possible outcome of the election results on the current polling is that nobody can form a government, but PP and PSOE could, in principle, agree on a technocratic government. Would Felipe be capable of mediating this sort of an outcome?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2015, 03:23:45 AM
The constitution says that the king has "arbitral" and "moderating" functions, attached to the character of "invariable neutrality" consubstantial with his figure. The limits of his moderating functions are open to interpretation, as you can read in the last paragraphs quoted below. I guess that Felipe VI could mediate in the formation of a 'technocratic' government at the request of PP and PSOE.

http://www.congreso.es/consti/constitucion/indice/sinopsis/sinopsis.jsp?art=62&tipo=2

Quote
El Rey es el Jefe del Estado de una Monarquía parlamentaria, y en consecuencia no es ya el eje del sistema político ni el centro de las decisiones, que pasan al Parlamento y al Gobierno, sino una instancia que nuclea la unidad del Estado, función ésta institucionalizadora (sic) que no pueden realizar ni el Gabinete ni las Cortes Generales conjunta ni separadamente.

    Este carácter permanente del Rey frente a la contingencia del Parlamento -sometido a los procesos electorales- y del Gobierno que resulta de las mayorías obtenidas en el Congreso de los Diputados, otorgan al Monarca una concepción de invariable neutralidad sobre la que descansa la función arbitral y moderadora que se despliega al margen de los restantes poderes del Estado.

     La cuestión está en saber si esa función arbitral y moderadora es un auténtico poder, independientemente de los demás poderes o si por el contrario es una instancia persuasiva y de influencia sin poderes concretos. La primera postura arrancaría de la existencia de un poder armónico o regulador exclusivo del Monarca tal como la formulara Benjamín Constant. Así, Herrero R. de Miñón, aunque con matizaciones, entiende que las competencias de arbitraje y moderación son cláusulas generales de apoderamiento de ámbito indeterminado, aunque determinable en la realidad. En sentido contrario, entre otros, Pérez Royo y Torres del Moral, que impugnan un ámbito independiente de poder para la actividad moderadora y arbitral del Rey; el segundo de los autores citados no duda en incluir esas funciones dentro de la concepción de "actos debidos" que no comportan por ello esfera específica de poder.

     Ciertamente entre la primera postura de indudable carácter expansivo y las que reducen a un simple "acto debido" la función moderadora y arbitral del Rey, se abre una tercera vía consistente, como han puesto de manifiesto Fernández Fontecha y Pérez de Armiñán, en reconocer al Monarca determinadas "potestades bloqueantes" (de las que las funciones moderadora y arbitral serían las arquetípicas), que como se ha dicho más atrás no se traducirían en derecho de "hacer" sino en derecho -¿o quizá el deber?- a impedir actuaciones contrarias al orden constitucional, así como a resolver de "forma pasiva" las tensiones que se planteen en el funcionamiento regular de las instituciones. Gracias a esta función de "influencia" el Rey trasciende el ámbito de sus estrictas atribuciones constitucionales, haciendo realidad actual la frase de Bagehot de que al Rey corresponde "animar, prevenir, ser consultado".

On a side note, there's another Felipe who advocates for a PP-PSOE coalition if it's needed "for the good of the country". Former PM Felipe González, to be precise.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2014/05/12/actualidad/1399875819_660624.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2015, 04:00:16 AM
A question worth asking is whether Podemos can sustain the support they're currently registering in the polls; those that rise quickly can fall just as fast.

(though, against that, it can be pointed out that the government is unpopular and that the PSOE doesn't seem capable of articulating whatever the hell it is they stand for these days).

Indeed. The Podemos people is aware that sustaining the level of support they currently enjoy is not going to be easy. This is going to be a long and tough year for them, too. Their first concern is that polls in Andalusia are not as favourable for them as they are in other regions. They need a good result there to have chances in a general election. Also, the 'two souls' inside Podemos are still struggling to reach a deal in Andalusia. On the other hand, I think the Podemos support is not going to fall abruptly. The reason is that it's sustained in a sociological undercurrent, a general dissatisfaction with the inefficient and corrupt political and economical elites. Podemos has reached its current status because they have been able to connect with that mood, as well as they represent a factor of hope and illusion for many people. As long as the mainstream parties (PP and PSOE) continue to be incapable of reforming themselves, as well as to reform a system running out of steam, I think Podemos is here to stay.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2015, 08:46:03 PM
Some notes on the Andalusian elections.

- According to Infolibre, the two main factions inside Podemos - the one led by MEP Teresa Rodríguez and the another led by Sergio Pascual, close to the Pablo Iglesias' team- have reached some kind of draft agreement to run a single list of candidates. Apparently Teresa Rodríguez is going to be the top candidate, although union leader Diego Cañamero (SAT) will be excluded at the request of the Sergio Pascual faction.

Cañamero was previously in IU as member of the CUT party, led by the Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. He left in December with other CUT members, because of a strong disagreement with the PSOE-IU coalition government. Later they joined Podemos and it was rumoured that all the CUT would follow, including Sánchez Gordillo. The controversial mayor of Marinaleda stated months ago feeling much more closer to Podemos than IU. Diego Cañamero and his partners are close to Teresa Rodríguez and he was mentioned as a possible top candidate.

Days ago Luis Alegre, who is member of the Podemos' national executive, said in an interview that Andalusia was not a region in which they have chances of winning. Alegre rectified later that statement, which didn't make Teresa Rodríguez happy for obvious reasons. Previously Alegre said that Podemos would not facilitate a PP government, as well as he conditioned possible dealings with PSOE to an "implacable commitment" against corruption.

- PP regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno offered Susana Díaz a "Grand Coalition" or some kind of governability pact, in order to prevent that Podemos governs ("it'd be a chaos", he said). The offer looks like a poisoned sweet for the socialists.

- Susana Díaz, on her part, rejected deals with PP and Podemos. PP is discarded because she doesn't want dealings with the party which has caused "a lot harm to the people". Podemos because she won't have dealings with "whom insult us".

- Finally, the former deputy premier Diego Valderas (IU) says that "the new electoral map will take us to be in a territory of permanent dialog with Susana Díaz and PSOE", showing that the "political anger" with Susana Díaz could go down in history. I ignore what's the opinion of the new regional coordinator Antonio Maíllo.


The CIS January survey will be released soon. Apparently not good news for PSOE at national level. The last survey was in October and the socialists were still in second place.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 04, 2015, 08:13:43 AM
CIS, January 2015:

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 05, 2015, 08:41:28 AM
The internal chasm inside IU Madrid (IUCM) has deepened in the last days. Tania Sánchez, candidate elect for the next regional election, has left the IUCM membership and her seat in the Regional Assembly (thus, she won't be the IU candidate). Sánchez intends to create a new party aimed to converge in a "popular unity candidacy". A couple of days ago, the PCE branch in Madrid broke ties with the IUCM, pledging allegiance to the IU's federal executive. Sánchez, however, won't seek IU's approval . Instead, she aims to rally around her new party those who believe that there's a chance of unseating the PP regional government. But Podemos still intends to run its own list in the regional elections. Unless they change their strategy, "popular unity" candidacies including Podemos are only possible at local level (using various legal formulas, such as independent lists or the "instrumental party" that will run in the city of Madrid). Meanwhile, the IUCM 'old guard' is determined to stay, regardless several IU leaders have asked them to leave. The attitude of Cayo Lara and the federal executive has been hesitant and irresolute in tackling the crisis in Madrid, which is one of the most important regional federations in IU.

Edit: Pablo Iglesias offered Tania Sánchez and those who believe that "change is possible" to join the Podemos candidacy, although he says that respects the decisions of members of other organisations. "I would be delighted that all the good people would assume that Podemos is their instrument, but we are going to respect them if they think their instruments are others", said iglesias.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 07, 2015, 06:22:01 AM
- Tania Sánchez has discarded joining Podemos. She and her followers (IUCM dissidents) will seek to create a space for "change and popular unity". The potential IU candidate Alberto Garzón was understanding with her departure, blaming the current IUCM leadership which should have taken political responsibilities for the involvement in corruption scandals of former IU representatives in Caja Madrid. Other IU leaders have criticised her decision. Sánchez won't seek that her new party replace IUCM as the IU's referent in Madrid, although she hopes meeting her former partners along the way, as well to find a formula to cooperate with them and Podemos in a "popular unity candidacy".

- Juan Carlos Monedero (who is the Podemos nº3 behind Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón) submitted on Jan 29 a complementary tax return, paying around 130,000 additional Euros to the Treasury. That amount was paid order to regularise the taxes he paid in 2013 for the income he received from several Latin American in exchange for consultancy works. Monedero paid 70,000 Euros in that year through an unipersonal limited company; as a legal person he should have paid 200,000. According to Podemos, Monedero chose the most favourable payment option for the Treasury, in order to tackle a negative campaign against him orchestrated by the government (they perceived a veiled menace from Finance minister Cristóbal Montoro) and right-wing press. Deputy PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría stated that "if every one did like Monedero, there would be more money to pay social services. PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando compared Monedero with Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer.

While the method of payment he used in 2013 is legal, he should have created his limited society before starting to work or paid taxes as a self-employed worker. It's possible that error is the result of a bad tax advice, although paying correctly is his personal responsibility. On the other hand, the comparison with Bárcenas looks exaggerated and the attitude of the Finance minister and the government contrasts sharply with the non-existent will to cooperate in the investigation of several scandals (for instance, those affecting former Caja Madrid/Bankia officials or princess Cristina). Monedero, on his part, didn't provide explanations and claimed being subject of a campaign against him, acting like those establishment politicians he criticise. Obviously, most of the media is hostile to Podemos and its leaders are being over scrutinised. Unverified information on alleged wrongdoings is not uncommon as of late. For instance, days ago El País claimed that Monedero falsified his curriculum vitae without solid evidence and later the paper had to rectify. El Mundo did the same with some information concerning Íñigo Errejón.

- PP territorial leaders are nervous because of Rajoy's indecision, especially regional premiers Alberto Fabra (Valencia) and Ignacio González (Madrid). Apparently, Mariano Rajoy has taken a decision on whom will be the candidates in the main places at stake in the regional and local elections. As usual in the Spanish PM, he would be delaying the announcements until the last moment, just in case it happens something (a scandal, a rival's move...). Alberto Fabra and Ignacio González hope to be nominated and seek reelection. The mayoral candidate in Madrid could be Esperanza Aguirre, although government delegate Cristina Cifuentes is not fully discarded. Internal polling is not very favourable in the capital of Spain and Rajoy would leave Aguirre (who polls slightly better than other potential candidates) to run on her fate. Given that elections in Andalusia were put forward, regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno has been confirmed together with José Antonio Monago in Extremadura. The only mayoral candidates conformed yesterday by the electoral committee were those whom will run in the provincial capitals of Extremadura and Galicia. The impatient potential candidates in other regions will have to wait until the next meeting.

- In Andalusia, the list topped by MEP Teresa Rodríguez that will run in the Podemos internal primary elections (named something like "Sowing Future") might include people from the ecologist party Equo. The Vox Party and Ciudadanos have already nominated candidates. Former judge Francisco Serrano (notorious for a controversial campaign on gender violence, calling women for not filing false complaints) will run for the conservative PP splinter. The top C's candidate will be Juan Marín, Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and linked to the party since 2011. Marín ran in the Ciudadanos por Sanlúcar list in the past municipal elections, group which governs in coalition with the local PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 08, 2015, 02:19:43 AM
New polls.

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 26.1%, Podemos 26%, PSOE 20.1%, UPyD 5%, IU 4.3%, C's 3.8%.

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 27.7%, PP 20.9%, PSOE 18.3%, C's 12.2%, IU 6.5%, UPyD 4.5%.

The Metroscopia poll can provoke an orgasmic rection in Albert Rivera's hosts. My opinion is that pollster should stop taking dope. On the other hand, the CIS might be underestimating C's. Raw polling data shows UPyD and Ciudadanos tied in the CIS Jan survey.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 08, 2015, 11:32:14 AM
Celeste-Tel poll for the Andalusian elections released by various regional papers.

PSOE 36%, PP 27.8%, Podemos 16.1%, IU 7.3%, C's 4.6%, PA 3.2%, UPyD 2.8%

Seats (109): PSOE 47, PP 36, Podemos 17, IU 7, C's 2

Sample size: 3300 (phone calls). Fieldwork: Jan 17-22.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 11, 2015, 08:10:04 AM
Pedro Sánchez has dismissed Tomás Gómez, leader and candidate of the Socialist Party in Madrid:

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/02/11/madrid/1423647485_897542.html

The only thing I'm going to say is that I'm behind that.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 11, 2015, 03:13:42 PM
Pedro Sánchez has dismissed Tomás Gómez, leader and candidate of the Socialist Party in Madrid:

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/02/11/madrid/1423647485_897542.html

The only thing I'm going to say is that I'm behind that.

Good riddance, indeed.

That been said, since PSOE militants have stormed into Ferraz accusing Sánchez of being a PP submarine and a dictator and with Gomez threatening to take the affair to court.... Well this is not turning exactly into a victory for him. In fact, it could be his political death, if he doesn't do something right before the next elections, although it also depends on Díaz's performance in the Andalucian elections (lacklustre or very lacklustre)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 12, 2015, 02:20:09 AM
The dismissal of Tomás Gómez appears to be handled clumsily, especially hearing the yesterday's imprecise statements made by the secretary for organisation César Luena (who seems mediocrity personified, on the other hand). Possible reasons are the issue of extra costs in the construction of a tram in Parla (a working-class town located south of Madrid) when Gómez was mayor, the repercussions of a scandal involving former PP and PSOE mayors (including Francisco Granados, who also was a top regional official and one of the Esperanza Aguirre's lieutenants) or internal conflicts in the PSOE's Madrid branch. Tomás Gómez is not formally accused for the tram affair; even though he has been a controversial, despotic and arguably incompetent leader, the procedure to get rid of him looks somewhat rushed and irregular (some people defined it as a little coup d'état).

PSOE's executive has appointed a management committee led by former regional leader Rafael Simancas, that includes several rivals of Gómez such as Jaime Lissavetzky (candidate for Mayor of Madrid in 2011). Some media point former minister of Education Ángel Gabilondo as possible candidate for regional premier, seen as a "winning candidate" by the PSOE's leadership. Gabilondo, who is not in PSOE, was the Rector of the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and is brother of a prestigious journalist. El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "scence-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   

(Welcome back, Namwe. Hope that you and Julio continue posting something)



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 12, 2015, 04:31:56 AM
(Thanks Velasco, I will try, although I'm busy at the moment with my thesis about the French 4th Republic)

Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 12, 2015, 05:07:06 AM
Good luck with your thesis. Julio is busy and I have to prepare an exam too. I think this weekend I'll try to make a summary of parties and candidates running in Andalusia. That election should deserve a thread in its own, but there's no time. I'm retouching a map I made of the 2012 election, anyway.


Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.

I already commented that. Metroscopia is fairly unreliable, indeed. I think C's is growing, but 12% nationwide is pure fantasy. I doubt they are going to win seats next month in Andalusia while the UPyD might be on the verge; soon we'll see.

El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "science-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 12, 2015, 08:51:56 AM
Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report :P): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 12, 2015, 09:04:58 AM
Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report :P): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.

Back when I lived in Alcalá (and where my parents live), Gomez is particularly disliked, his lovely tendency towards destruction of any independent thought within the PSM resulted in the destruction of a joint UPyD-PSOE effort to dislodge Bello from the city's mayoralty and the PP alongside it. Sadly Gomez killed it. Not only that, but somehow -but sadly i don't know the specifics, Bello was capable of furthering his majority by adding to the PP the whackos of España200 and IU.

In any case, looking at the polls in and outside the Corredor del Henares, the PSM is going down, Podemos is capturing its left-wing vote, UPyD and C's can and will from its right and in the meanwhile, voting (I'd say) is less solidified in the CAM than in other regions. Of course if Rajoy picks Aguirre as candidate for mayor of Madrid, things might still change a lot.

As for Andalucia. Andalucia, as Politikon neatly puts it, is where the worst vices of the PSOE show up, understandably, and the fact that the PSOE has become so rooted there because it's been wiped out elsewhere is no good for the party. Soon enough, PSOE might have to rename itself Partido Regionalista Socialista (Extremeño-)Andaluz


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 13, 2015, 12:46:34 PM
University of Granada poll (Andalusia, regional elections).

PSOE 35.2%, PP 29.1%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 8.4%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 3.1%, PA 2.4%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 8-31.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 14, 2015, 02:27:01 PM
Andalusia 2015:

The Andalusian election was called on January 27 and will be held on Sunday March 22. Regional premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) decided to move forward the election one year before the end of term in 2016, stating the "instability" of the PSOE-IU coalition government and the lack of trust towards her coalition partners as the main reasons to dissolve the Andalusian Parliament.

The 2012 election:

()

Leading party by municipality. The IU colour has been changed from from purple in the first version of the map to lime green, making it coincide with the regional organisation's logo. From now on, purple will be assigned to Podemos.

Results:

PP 40.66% (+2.21%) winning 50 seats (+3)
PSOE-A 39.52% (-8.89%) winning 47 seats (-9)
IULV-CA 11.34% (+4.28%) winning 12 seats (+6)
UPyD 3.35% (+2.73%) winning 0 seats (nc)
PA 2.5% (-0.26%) winning 0 seats (nc)
Equo 0.53% (-0.05%) winning 0 seats (nc)

The 2012 election placed the Popular Party (PP) first, but it fell short of a majority by 5 seats. That result left ambivalent interpretations for the conservative force. It was an historic outcome because, by the first time in 30 years, the Andalusian branch of PP was able to become in the largest party ahead of the socialists. However, the outcome was a failure because of the high previous expectations. PP had already beaten PSOE by a 9% margin in the 2011 general election; nearly all polls were predicting a PP majority and no less than a 6-7% lead.  Finally, the outcome made nearly impossible for veteran regional leader Javier Arenas to become in the next regional premier. The frustrated expectations for change in Andalusia were a huge disappointment for a then victorious PP, as well as a warning bell for the Rajoy administration in Madrid. The election took place in the first months of the incumbent PP government and the ruling party was beginning to be unpopular due to the implementation of tough economic measures. While the Rajoy administration apparently took the austerity path by conviction, such measures were in open contradiction with the 2011 electoral platform, which promised an economic recovery without prescribing the bitterest medicines (such as cuts in social services and tax increases). A new labour reform was passed. Remarkably, the sponsor was a member of the Andalusian PP: Fátima Báñez, minister for employment. The reform gave employers great facilities to fire workers, as well as a de facto suppression of collective agreements which supposed the weakening of trade union power.

Despite having been defeated by a narrow 1% margin, PSOE performed better than expected. José Antonio Griñán, the then incumbent regional premier, achieved a "moral victory". Griñán proved to be right when he decided not following a previous pattern of making coincide the regional elections with the Spanish general election; the latter had been called in advance by Zapatero and set in November 2011. The regional premier was able to avoid a sound defeat of disastrous consequences for his party, already in a state of depression as a consequence of the 2011 electoral catastrophes. Besides, he was able to remain in office with the support of the United Left (IU), which whom the Andalusian socialists reached an agreement to form a coalition government. However, Griñán was touched by the repercussions of the ERE scandal*, which later provoked his resignation in the summer of 2013. Immediately after (September 2013), Griñán was appointed senator by the Andalusian Parliament in representation of the region.

*In order to save time, I'll quote El Caudillo's blog (you can read the regional profile, too):

https://welections.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/andalusia-and-asturias-spain-2012/

Quote
In Andalusia, the regional PSOE government finds itself embroiled in EREgate. EREgate involves the subsidization of early retirement in government-funded companies by the PSOE. In this case, around 3% of early retirement cases were found to be fraudulent and involved roughly €9 million. The government paid excessive early retirements or paid early retirements to employees who never actually worked for a particular company (ed: those people usually tended to be PSOE supporters or part of the PSOE clientele). The PP and IU in the Andalusian parliament have seen their calls for a commission of inquiry refused by the PSOE majority, which claims that claims are being investigated by the Employment Ministry alongside the courts. The PP claims that the PSOE is covering up a wider case which involves the current president of the community, José Antonio Griñán. […]

The main beneficiary of PSOE's decline was the IU, increasing more than 4% (about 1/2 of PSOE's losses). In comparison with the result of the 2011 general election in Andalusia, PP suffered significant losses (mainly to abstention), whereas the PSOE-IU left block remained stable (in terms of raw vote) with some internal redistribution between both parties. The Andalusian IU reached its electoral peak in the mid 90's, remarkably when former mayor of Córdoba Julio Anguita was the IU national leader (19.3% in 1994, 14.1% in 1996). Anguita himself ran in the 1986 elections getting 17.9% of the vote. The IU declined sharply since then, falling to 7-8% in subsequent elections held in the 00's. The IU's increase in 2012 was arguably due a favourable context, rather than the ability of its regional leadership (besides, the candidate Diego Valderas was miles away from the charismatic Julio Anguita in terms of popular appeal).

The result was disappointing for the UPyD, which failed to win seats and received less votes than in the 2011 general election without benefiting from PP and PSOE losses. If UPyD was replicating the 2011 result, it could have won 2 seats in the regional parliament. The regionalist Andalusian Party (PA), which had parliamentary representation in past elections and even joined coalition governments with PSOE, was unable to recover support and got a poor result. The ecologist Equo only got a tiny 0.5%, falling from 1% in November 2011.


Electoral system:

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected in 8 multi-member districts, which correspond to the 8 Andalusian provinces. Each of the region's provinces are allocated 8 members, while the remaining 45 seats are allocated on the basis of population. Seats for each party are allocated using D'Hondt closed-list proportional representation. Only lists above a 3% of votes cast in each district are entitled to enter in the distribution. In practice, a list needs more than 5% of valid votes to win seats in the most populous provinces, Seville and Malaga.

Distribution of seats by province:

Seville 18, Málaga 17, Cádiz 15, Granada 13, Almería 12, Córdoba 12, Huelva 11, Jaén 11.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 16, 2015, 06:05:11 AM
Parties and candidates:

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A)

Incumbent premier Susana Díaz seeks reelection. She took office in September 2013, after the renunciation of José Antonio Griñán in July; subsequently, she replaced him as secretary general of the Andalusian socialists in November 2013. As the head of the main socialist federation (1/4 of PSOE membership is Andalusian), she has became in one of the most influential figures of the Spanish socialists. Arguably she played an important role in the Pedro Sánchez's rise to the PSOE's leadership. Despite she appeared neutral in the socialist primary held in July 2014, she was said to be behind Pedro Sánchez's landslide in Andalusia (61% of the vote). Immediately after the Sánchez's victory, it seemed to exist a good empathy between him and Díaz. However, subsequent turmoil in PSOE has been accompanied by rumours on Susana Díaz's ambition to run at the head of PSOE in the next general election, which she refuses stating that her priorities are Andalusia and her next maternity (she's expected to give birth by July).

Despite her young age, Susana Díaz (Seville, 1974) has a long political career in the Andalusian branch of PSOE. At the age of 18 she joined the Socialist Youth, where she held the post of secretary for organisation. She was elected councillor in the Seville City Hall in 1999. Since then, she has served in various political offices (national deputy, member of the regional parliament, senator), as well as in several party positions. In May 2012 Griñán appointed her regional minister for Presidency and Equality.

Susana Díaz will top the list in the province of Seville. The rest of the top candidates are experienced politicians, although all who might be affected by the ongoing investigation of the ERE scandal have been excluded. The socialist platform incorporates three unfinished laws outlined by the coalition government, all of them IU demands which PSOE takes up: citizen's participation, "democratic memory" (Franco's victims) and a public credit institute. 

Popular Party (PP)

The candidate is Juan Manuel Moreno (1970), regional leader since May 2014 replacing Mayor of Seville Juan Ignacio Zoido. Juan Manuel Moreno led the PP's Youth (the "New Generations") and was councillor in the Malaga Town Hall, member of the Andalusian Parliament and of the Congress of Deputies. Between the PP's victory in November 2011 until his appointment at the head of the Andalusian Populares, he was secretary of Social Services and Equality in the Rajoy administration. His main handicaps are a low level of knowledge among Andalusian and a controversy around his curriculum vitae (his academic qualifications lack of official recognition). Juan Manuel Moreno seeks the centre, appealing to "moderate policies" in opposition to the "radicality risk" represented by Podemos and IU. The candidate will top the list in Málaga, while the inclusion of former regional leader in the 4th place of the Almería's list caused some surprise.

United Left The Greens-Assembly for Andalusia (IULV-CA)

Antonio Maíllo (1966), who is the IU's regional coordinator since June 2013 in replacement of the then Deputy Premier Diego Valderas, is the candidate to preside La Junta. He has a degree in Classical Philology and is a secondary school teacher. Left-wing activist since the age of 18, he was councillor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) and joined PCE in 1996. Maíllo was nominated candidate in a primary election held in July 2014. He had a critical stance of the coalition government and has good empathy with deputy Alberto Garzón, who will be the IU's candidate in the general election. Antonio Maíllo will top the list in Seville, in replacement of Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. The Sánchez Gordillo's party (CUT, Workers' Unity Candidacy), decided to leave the IU some days ago and not taking part in the primary process to select candidates. Apparently, the IU leadership felt somewhat relieved by that decision; the Maíllo's candidacy will seek to attract urban vote and the rural 'revolutionary' profile of the CUT didn't help.

Podemos

MEP Teresa Rodríguez (1981) was proclaimed candidate after a primary election in which she topped a "unity list" agreed with the Pablo Iglesias' team. Teresa Rodríguez is a young activist born in Rota (Cádiz), where is located a Naval Station which is funded by the USA and has US military personnel. She joined a movement against the presence of US military in Rota at a very young age, joined the IU at the age of 18 and later the Anticapitalist Left. Teresa Rodríguez has a degree in Arab Philology and is secondary school teacher.

The candidate will top the list in Cádiz, while people close to the Podemos' national leadership will top the list in other provinces: art historian Lucía Ayala in Almería; sociologist David Moscoso in Córdoba; professor of Civil Law Luis Serrano in Granada; and Begoña Gutiérrez in Seville. The Podemos list integrates members of Equo, with the candidate elect of the ecologist organisation running in the 3rd place for Córdoba. Also, several members of the Sánchez Gordillo's CUT will run, although controversial rural union leader Diego Cañamero was excluded by petition of the Podemos' leadership in Madrid. Both Equo and CUT preserve their character of independent organisations. On the other hand, Podemos elected regional executives past weekend except in Andalusia, due to the proximity of the elections.

Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)

Lawyer Martín de la Herrán (1976) will repeat as candidate and will top the list in Málaga.

Citizens (C's)

The candidate is Juan Marín (1962), Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz). Among his goals are strengthen the party's regional structure and offering Andalusians a new alternative "viable, sensible and regenerative".

Andalusian Party (PA)

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (1973), secretary general of the PA in replacement of Pilar González (unsuccessful candidate for Mayor of Seville), will run as candidate trying to improve the party's fortune in this elections. Ruiz has been Deputy Mayor in Puerto de Santa María (Cádiz). The Andalusian Party defines its ideology as "nationalist, federalist and progressive".

Vox

Former judge Francisco Serrano is the candidate of the Vox Party, a PP's hardcore conservative splinter which seemingly is accentuating an ultra Catholic profile. Serrano is quite controversial because of his statements on alleged false complaints about gender-based violence ("woman be honest...") and the so-called "gender ideology" which, in his words, brings to the destruction of family.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 21, 2015, 09:42:21 AM
Professor and former minister for Education Ángel Gabilondo has been appointed by the PSOE executive committee candidate for the regional elections in Madrid. PSOE members had the chance to express their opinion on the suitability of the potential candidates and Gabilondo received an overwhelming support. Aside Gabilondo, who is an independent, the other postulant was Madrid councillor Pedro Zerolo, a gay activist. In representation of Tomás Gómez's supporters, MRA Amparo Valcarce withdrew her candidacy and backed Zerolo.

Former IU MRA and candidate elect Tania Sánchez joined Equo and other movements to create a candidacy called "Assembly for Madrid". It's unclear if they'll reach some kind of agreement with Podemos. Meanwhile IUCM spokepersons Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo have been disowned by the IU federal executive, although that means little in practical terms. Both IU and the new Assembly for Madrid have little chances of getting into the Madrid Regional Assembly running in their own. Additionally, Ciudadanos is on the rise in Madrid and the rest of Spain if we have to trust in polls (which is not easy).

Ciudadanos hired a prestigious economist called Luis Garicano; he and C's leader Albert Rivera presented the party's economic platform in Madrid a couple of days ago. Apparently, Ciudadanos is about to become in a centrist Podemos in order to carry former PP voters from abstention. It seems clear that Rivera has the support of some influential media, as well as certain Catalan entrepreneurs.

Edit: I misnamed Mr. Garicano :P


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 21, 2015, 10:39:56 AM
I've been told that Tania Sánchez will be the candidate of a Podemos-Equo-"Convocatoria por Madrid" coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: FredLindq on February 22, 2015, 09:10:57 AM
What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 27, 2015, 02:09:25 AM
February polls. Trust them at your own peril.

General election:

My Word / Cadena SER

Podemos 24.6%, PP 22.5%, PSOE 19.5%, C's 13.4%, UPyD 3.3%, IU 3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-11. Sample size: 1000 (online)

Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 29.6%, Podemos 25.8%, PSOE 20.1%, C's 7.3%, IU 4.1%, CiU 2.6%, ERC 2.4%, UPyD 1.8%, PNV 1.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-12. Sample size: 1800 (phone calls)

Sigma Dos / Valencia region (general election):

PP 31.2%, Podemos 26.7%, PSOE 17.5%, C's 5.8%, IU 5.1%, Compromís 5%, UPyD 2.9%

Regional elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid regional election (129 seats, 5% threshold):

PP 38.8% (59 seats), Podemos 23.6% (35), PSOE 17.3% (26), C's 6% (9), UPyD 4.6% (-), IU 4.5% (-), Others 5.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 1600

Metroscopia / El País

Madrid (129):

PP 28% (38), Podemos 24.6% (34), PSOE 17% (23), C's 15.8% (21), IU 5.5% (7), UPyD 5% (6), Others 4.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 19-20. Sample size: 1200 (phone)

Vaubán / Extremadura7Días

Extremadura (65 seats):

PSOE 33.4% (24), PP 32.6% (24), Podemos 12.7% (9), UPyD 7.6% (5), IU 5.1% (3), C's 3.2% (-), Regionalists 2.1% (-), Others 3.3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-20. Sample size: 1067 (phone)

Local elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid (57 councillors, 5% threshold)

PP 40.1% (26), PSOE 21.5% (14), Podemos/Ganemos 14.9% (10), C's 6.5% (4), IU 5% (3), UPyD 4.8% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 800

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Barcelona (41 councillors, 5% threshold)

CiU 25.3% (11/12), Guanyem 21.4% (10), PP 13.7% (6) PSC 10.7% (5), ERC 10.3% (4/5), C's 8.1% (3), CUP 4.1% (0/2)

Fieldwork: Feb 16-19. Sample size: 700 (phone)

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

I have not a clue.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 27, 2015, 09:01:54 AM
What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

The issue with this is that essentially all (or most) polls are bogus. Now besides that, it's impossible to say, there has not been such kind of parliamentary instability predicted by the polls in Spain since the Second Republic, so there's literally no proper historical precedent (those who remember the IIa and are alive were children at the time most likely) of a situation like this in Spain. Which shows in the fact, that even if we pretend that polls aren't being cooked up maliciously, pollsters don't quite know what to do.

Asking what'll happen at the moment is like asking someone to look into some kind of crystal ball to see the future. Someone could say something, but it'd be either very obvious or very bogus.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on February 28, 2015, 08:51:00 AM
I would like to ask the opinion of our fellow Spaniards on the matter of C's : do you, as a gut-feeling and knowing what you know about your country's present political situation, feel that they are more realistically polling 5-6 or 13-15 nationally ? Because it seems to me like they are polling dramatically in general election polls, but the numbers just don't add up when you take it to the regional levels, a bit like Podemos, as a matter of fact.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 28, 2015, 12:58:26 PM
I think it's more realistic assuming that C's is actually polling 5-6 nationwide. On the other hand, I have little doubt that the "window of opportunity" for the Rosa Díez's UPyD has passed and Albert Rivera (like it or not) is the man of the moment, that is to say, the representative of "new politics" for moderate and centre-right voters angry with establishment politicians whom deem Podemos too radical. My impression is that at some point in the near future UPyD and C's could merge or, given the current trend, it's possible that the latter will end absorbing the former.

As for Podemos, I think the Andalusian election is key for them, as well as the result in Madrid. Podemos is still lacking of candidates and the left in Madrid is currently a terrible mess, with the IU broken in several pieces and the PSOE struggling to survive with a new candidate who, on the other hand, I think it's excellent. I don't mean that Ángel Gabilondo is going to achieve a great electoral success (it's nearly impossible, given the pitiful state of Madrid's PSOE), but a man who quotes Kant in public meetings is rather unusual in Spanish politics and he looks so different from our average politicians that I can't help but feeling some kind of empathy. 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: FredLindq on February 28, 2015, 05:08:36 PM
My quesrion is, how will the parties work out functioning majoritets in this Political landscape?!


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 28, 2015, 06:29:29 PM
Andalusian election polls.

Deimos, University of Granada.

PSOE 33.4% (39 seats), PP 25.7% (33), Podemos 22.3% (25), C's 7.8% (7), IU 6.1% (5), UPyD 1.5% (-), PA 1.5% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 18-25. Sample size: 1539

Celeste-Tel / La Opinión de Málaga

PSOE 36.7% (48), PP 27.4% (35), Podemos 14.7% (17), IU 7.4% (6), C's 6.1% (3), PA 3.1% (-), UPyD 2.6% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-20. Sample size: 2400

IMC / ABC Sevilla

PSOE 37.8% (44-48), PP 30.7% (39-42), Podemos 12% (12-14), C's 5% (3-5), IU 4.7% (3-5), UPyD 2.4% (-), PA 1.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 16-21. Sample size: 1100

General election

Simple Lógica (Gallup partner)

Podemos 29.6%, PP 26.8%, PSOE 17.8%, C's 8.5%, UPyD 3.6%, IU 3.4%, CiU 3%, PNV 1%, Others 6.2%

Filedwork: Feb 2-9. Sample size: 1058

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15003_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Take a pound of salt.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 01, 2015, 06:01:07 AM
Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 01, 2015, 09:56:12 AM
Another Andalusian poll. A certain Mr. Toharia, who is the Metroscopia's chief, seems to be in love with Mr. Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos.

Metroscopia / El País

PSOE 34.6% (40-44), PP 22.7% (27-31), Podemos 16.7% (18-22), C's 11% (8-12), IU 6.8% (5-9), UPyD 2.8% (-), Others 4.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 23-24. Sample size: 1000 (phone)

Murcia (regional election)

CEMOP / La Verdad

PP 39.4% (21-22 seats), PSOE 21.9% (10-11), Podemos 17.5% (8-9), C's 11.4% (3-4), IU 5.8% (1), UPyD 3.1% (-)

Fieldwork:  Feb 2-13. Sample size: 1458

Murcia is a PP stronghold and the ruling conservative party would have a -20.9% swing. If that poll reflects accurately the trend in the Murcia region, then Ciudadanos would be taking nearly all the space between PP and PSOE, while the UPyD might be condemned to dissapear. Murcia was the second best region for UPyD in the EP elections, only behind Madrid. However, I will believe that C's surge when I see it. The regional assembly has 45 seats, so Ciudadanos would have the key in the formation of the government.

General election:

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 27.8%, Podemos 23.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 6.4%, UPyD 4%, IU 3.8%, CiU 2.8%, ERC 2.8%, PNV 1.1%, Others 6%

Fieldwork: Feb 26



Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

As you say, that is the average prediction made by a group of poll junkies (I'd say it's 'amateur' instead of 'expert' people and certainly those 'barometers' lack of professional methodology). Sometimes such predictions can be more spotted on than actual polls, and our polling industry is untrusted for good reasons. Anyway, I suspect that political leanings influence people's predictions and the percentage for "others" is way too high (aside the Vox Party and the animal rights PACMA, the rest of forces are too insignificant).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 04, 2015, 05:27:06 PM
Shocking Catalan polls. GESOP / El Periódico.

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 20.1% (31-32), ERC 17.3% (27-28), C's 17.8% (23-24), PP 9.8% (12-13), Podem 9.8% (11-12), PSC 7.9% (10-11), CUP 7.1% (9-10), ICV 6.9% (8-9)

The sample size is small (800) and the poll was conducted between Feb 20 and 26.

CiU and ERC down because the stagnation of the separatist process, while the radical left CUP is on the rise. C's would be the second party in popular vote, but gets less seats than ERC due to malapportionment. Podemos is down from the last GESOP poll and PSC falls to the 6th place.

General election (47 seats):

CiU 17% (10), Podem 20.5% (9), ERC 13.7% (7-8), C's 15.7% (7), PP 11.9% (6), PSC 11.3% (5-6), ICV 3.6% (1), CUP 3.4% (1)

Podemos would be the party with the most votes in Catalonia in a general election and C's would come third, but malapportionment favours again nationalist parties (CiU and ERC). Terrible results for PP and PSOE and ICV-EUiA , reduced to a single seat. The separatist CUP has never contested Spanish elections, and I have no reason to think that the next will be different.

Sample size: 800. Fieldwork: Feb 20-26.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 05, 2015, 07:59:27 AM
CIS / Andalusian elections.

PSOE 34.7% (44), PP 25.7% (34), Podemos 19.2% (21-22), IU 6.6% (4-5), C's 6.4% (5), UPyD 2.3% (-), PA 1.2% (-)

Sample size: 3180 (face to face). Fieldwork: Jan 30 - Feb 17

The Parliament of Andalusia has 109 seats (majority= 55).

Direct vote intention (raw data): PSOE 25.5%, Podemos 13.7%, PP 12.8%, IU 3.8%, C's 3-5%,  UPyD 1.7%, PA 0.8%, Others 0.6%, blank 4.7%, null 0.7%, won't vote 11%, don't know 16.7%, don't answer 4.6%

By province.

Almería: PSOE 36.3% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 14.4% (2), C's 6.6% (1), IU 4.4% (-), UPyD 2.3% (-)

Cádiz: PSOE 29.8% (5), Podemos 25.3% (4), PP 21.8% (4), C's 6.9% (1), IU 6.7% (1), UPyD 3.4% (-), PA 2% (-)

Córdoba: PSOE 35.9% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 18.3% (2-3), IU 6.1% (0-1), C's 4-9% (-), UPyD 1.8% (-), PA 1.6% (-)

Granada: PSOE 34.4% (5), PP 28.5% (4), Podemos 15.2% (2), IU 6.8% (1), C's 6.5% (1), UPyD 3.2% (-)

Huelva: PSOE 39.4% (5), PP 30.1% (4), Podemos 19.6% (2), IU 5.8% (-), C's 2.7% (-), UPyD 1%

Jaén: PSOE 37.3% (5), PP 31% (4), Podemos 17% (2), IU 5.6% (-), C's 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.4%

Málaga: PSOE 31.6% (6), PP 30.5% (6), Podemos 17.1% (3), IU 6.9% (1), C's 6.7% (1), UPyD 2.4% (-)

Sevilla: PSOE 37.2% ( 8 ), Podemos 21.2% (4), PP 20.2% (4), C's 7.8% (1), IU 7.7% (1), UPyD 2.1% (-), PA 1.9% (-)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3053mar_A.pdf


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on March 05, 2015, 10:36:06 AM
How much would you say Podemos has to cross in Andalucía to get respect nationally and the feeling that they are a worthwhile force ? 20 % ? 15 %

And why is Cádiz their best result ? Is it a left-wing stronghold in general ? I always thought of it rather as a sort of Nice or Toulon conservative city, but I admit I never looked into it.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 05, 2015, 02:41:10 PM
It'd be better for them getting 20% of the vote, although any result above 15% would be good given the circumstances.

As for Cádiz, there's a difference between the provincial capital and the rest of the province. As you can see in the 2012 election map that I posted before, PP won in the main curban centres (Jerez, Cádiz and Algeciras), as well as in the Bay of Cádiz municipalities (except Puerto Real, which is an industrial town with a shipbuilding industry in decline due to competence from Asian countries) and the Bay of Algeciras. However, the rural municipalities lean PSOE and there are a couple of IU strongholds (Trebujena). In the November 2011 general election, PP got a strong result in the province (47.1%), but in the 2012 regional election it fell to 40.5% getting less votes than the sum of PSOE and IU (35.6% and 12.7%, respectively). In the 2014 EP elections, PP came second behind PSOE and only got 23.6% (in percentage, it's a half of the support they got in 2011).

As for the the city of Cádiz, it has been a PP stronghold in the last 20 years (Teófila Martínez is the mayoress since 1995), but in the EP elections the conservative party won a weak plurality and it was one of the strongest provincial capitals for Podemos in the country (PP 26%, PSOE 21.8%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 10.9%, UPyD 8.7%). Podemos got 10.7% in the Cádiz province, which was its best provincial result in Andalusia.

I haven't researched in depth why Podemos is strong in Cádiz. A couple of possible factors could be:

a) Cádiz is the Spanish province with the highest unemployment rate; by the end of 2014 it was above 42%.

b) The Podemos candidate (MEP Teresa Rodríguez) is from the Cádiz province.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 07, 2015, 11:02:33 AM
Mariano Rajoy picked Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre as candidates for regional premier and mayor of Madrid, respectively. Incumbent Madrid premier Ignacio González has been involved in a series of scandals regarding a penthouse he owns in Estepona (Costa del Sol, Málaga) and premium payments to judges through a private compay called Indra. González denounced a conspiracy against him; people in his entourage pointed to a sector of PP wanting to take him off from the race. Ignacio González has been a loyal squire to regional leader Esperanza Aguirre, as well former regional minister Enrique Granados (who is in prison charged with corruption). However, Aguirre remained silent in the controversy around the incumbent premier, seeking to be appointed by Rajoy as mayoral candidate. In any case, it seems that Rajoy made the decision to replace González some time ago. Despite the poor relationship between the Spanish PM and the Madrid regional leader, the decision to appoint Aguirre for the mayoral race responds to pragmatic reasons: she is adored by the PP conservative base and scores better than others in the polls. On the other hand, Cristina Cifuentes is currently the delegate of the Spanish government in Madrid, is a woman of dialogue and moderate, as well as loyal to Rajoy.

In contrast, Mariano Rajoy has gone for continuity in the Valencia region. Incumbent premier Albert Fabra and incumbent mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá will seek reelection.

On the other hand, IU and C's nominated candidates for the Madrid region. Poet Luis García Montero (born in Granada, 1958) will top the IU list in the regional elections after the defection of Tania Sánchez. The new force created by the latter, joined by Equo and other organisations, is still struggling to find a formula to cooperate with Podemos.

The Andalusian campaign started yesterday. I'll copy the brief profile of the main candidates in the English version of El País newspaper. According to that, those candidates represent a "new generation of leaders".

Susana Díaz (PSOE). In the machine room

Born in Seville in 1974, she became Andalusia’s first woman regional premier when she took over from the embattled José Antonio Griñán in 2013. Díaz received her training at different Socialist Party (PSOE) headquarters where she was close to the party’s political machinery. She has served as a councilor, deputy in Congress, regional lawmaker, senator, and is now head of Spain’s largest region.

As premier, Díaz has tried to fight the corruption that has engulfed Andalusia, which came to a head when a judge began investigating the so-called ERE case, a multi-million fraud probe involving the misuse of a public layoff fund.

She decided not to run for PSOE secretary general last year – a post won by Pedro Sánchez. Her public differences with Sánchez, whom she supported, have now become noticeable. She has said she will not run in the party primaries to select a prime ministerial candidate because she wants to continue as Andalusian regional premier. A lawyer, Díaz is married and now pregnant with her first child.


Juan Manuel Moreno (PP). An impossible challenge

Moreno faces an uphill battle, according to the polls, which predict he will not garner the majority of votes that the Popular Party (PP) took under Javier Arenas in 2012. Then the PP won 50 seats but was five short of an absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament. The Socialists were able to convince the IU to form a partnership government, which remained in place for nearly three years.

Born in Barcelona in 1970 to Andalusian parents, Moreno became the PP leader in the region just a year ago. Before that he served as secretary of state for social services and equality under then-Health Minister Ana Mato.

Antonio Maíllo (IU). A leader with no opposition

Maíllo became United Left (IU) regional coordinator in 2013 following an unusual assembly meeting in which there was no internal bickering nor votes cast against his candidacy. A Córdoba native, he was a political unknown until he became coordinator. He has been with the IU since he was 18 and served as councilor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) – two municipalities where he taught Latin.

Maíllo arrived on the scene shortly before Susana Díaz took over as regional premier but the two did not share the same camaraderie as their predecessors Griñán and previous IU coordinator, Diego Valderas.

Maíllo studied classical philosophy and is the first gay candidate (“that I know of,” he says) to run for regional premier in Andalusia. Besides Latin and Greek, he speaks English and Italian.


()

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos). The activist teacher

Podemos was no doubt caught off guard by the announcement of early elections in the region. The formation had no candidate and there were doubts about Rota-native Teresa Rodríguez stepping in. A member of the far-left Anti-Capitalist Left faction of the new political force, she could become the secretary general of Podemos in Andalusia when internal elections are held after the regional race.

She began her political career at 18 when she joined IU, and was on the party’s election slate in 2000. Last year, she was elected euro deputy for Podemos – a post she held for 10 months.

A language and literature teacher, Rodríguez has also been an activist, taking part in protests at the Rota naval base and coming out against the European Constitution.


Juan Marín (Ciudadanos). From business to politics

The most recent of the five to arrive on the political scene, Sanlúcar native Marín says he first got involved in politics in 2007 when a trash strike was in full swing in his home city. “His wife said: ‘Juan, if we don’t do something, we are going to have to move,’” recalls one of his advisors.

After the municipal elections, he formed the Independent Citizens Party of Sanlúcar, based on almost identical ideas to those of Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos, which he joined in 2011.

After studying labor relations, Marín took over his family jewelry business and is active in local business owners’ associations.

During the 2007 elections, his party won three city council seats and formed a pact with the Socialists that allowed him to serve as deputy mayor of Sanlúcar.


Here, an article on the new emerging force in the Spanish centre-right, stressing the tireless online presence of C's leader Albert Rivera and entitled "How Ciudadanos took on Podemos at their own digital name".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/03/05/inenglish/1425573337_792747.html

Certainly, Podemos has no longer the exclusive of "new politics". On the other hand, the friendliness of media with Ciudadanos is evident. Also, people at PP is starting to worry and launching some clumsy attacks, which the agile and dialectically skilled Rivera has little problem to counteract.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 08, 2015, 08:41:31 AM
Time for Metroscopia's poll. And copying Velasco's style.


General election:

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 20.2%, PP 18.6%, C's 18.4%, IU 5.6%, UPyD 3.6%, Others 11.1%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 08, 2015, 03:14:41 PM
Albert Rivera: The Charming Naranjito Man.

()

Some columnist at eldiario.es nicknamed Albert Rivera "the IBEX 35 Prince Charming". The reasons to explain C's meteoric rise are the support from the economic establishment (the employment of liberal economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe would have reassured IBEX 35 companies); the relative cleanliness of C's (despite certain issues concerning some party members) as opposed to corruption in PP ranks; and that PP has not so much hidden vote as some pollsters used to believe (angry and disillusioned people actually went to abstention).

According to a sociologist quoted in the article, in past Catalan elections C's attracted voters swinging between PP and PSC. However, in the rest of Spain is different. There C's appeals to PP voters wanting a clean party, those moderates whom once were supporters of the UCD and CDS.  C's is placed in the centre-right nationwide, even though back in 2006 its Catalan founders defined Ciutadans as a centre-left social liberal force opposed to peripheral nationalism. The strong support that C's is getting from media (ranging from El País to Pedro J Ramírez, I believe) plays a key role and its motivation is that C's is seen as an option to stem the Podemos rise. Quoting C's propaganda, they represent "the sensible change" as opposed to Rivera's sentence "Podemos is vengeance".  

http://www.eldiario.es/zonacritica/Causas-meteorico-despegue-Albert-Rivera_6_363673650.html

Worthy of mention is that PP spokesman Rafael Hernando has been already campaigning for Albert Rivera. When Hernando attacked Ciudadanos by calling it "naranjito" (in allusion to the official mascot of the 1982 World Cup held in Spain), actually he was serving Rivera the reply on a plate. The C's leader reacted immediately, taking a photo with the mascot (see above) and sending via Twitter the #YoSoyNaranjito" hashtag, which soon became in a trending topic worldwide.

Anyway, the Metroscopia poll is exaggerating the trend. I won't believe that C's is tied with PP until I see it. A strong dose of scepticism is needed these days, in order to preserve sanity.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 08, 2015, 07:55:28 PM
Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 09, 2015, 01:23:16 AM
Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Don't trust Metroscopia's polls. Essentially PSOE is not higher than PP, and C's is not that high, and most likely the PP is still first party with 23-27% of the vote. And if the PP loses it's likely that Rajoy will resign but he won't be forced out, after more than a decade at tht helm of the PP and having survived the 2008 challenge, his control of the party is pretty much absolute with the exception of Esperanza Aguirre.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 09, 2015, 03:39:31 AM
I doubt that the situation that Rajoy faced in 2008, when he lost an election getting 40% of the vote, was comparable to a  result similar to that poll. Even though PP is a highly disciplined and hierarchical party, I see no way in which Rajoy could survive that catastrophe. I guess that he would quit politics and live comfortably as a Property Registrar. Anyway, I concur with Nanwe in not trusting that pollster in particular. Likely PP is still the first party, although with a low level of support (more or less in the EP election levels, or maybe less) and with Podemos on the heels. In two weeks we'll have the Andalusian election results. I hope they will clarify things a bit, because at this moment we cannot do much more than to speculate pointlessly.

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Likely it should. Do you prefer a separate thread to post results or something?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 09, 2015, 04:17:44 AM
I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 09, 2015, 10:56:18 AM
I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.

There's no implying. In the PP there's no internal democracy, Rajoy meets with his trusted people and decides. It's a digital system, the leader picks with his finger. Not even façade primaries, like in the PSOE.

Look, in Spanish politics there's a big phantom, that of the UCD. A party torn apart by internal disputes that led to its electoral disintegration (unlike most parties where it's the other way around), the UCD was a centre-left-to-centre-right  party (as I'm sure you know) with its organised currents and families vying for control under the long shadow of Suárez only waiting for him to grow weak to try and take over. The result was abysmal for the party and the Spanish's right: forced into opposition due to its lack of strength for 14 long years. And again whenever there were signs of weakness (like AP's lackluster results in 1986 and the ensuing crisis), the right has almost collapsed due to internal fights. There's a reason Aznar first and then Rajoy have followed a policy of total and absolute control over their party. The fact that one, one deputy out of 186 would vote against a law from his own government about abortion resulted in a considerable media frenzy. There are no defectors in the party, everyone always insists that the party is always united, one mind, one party. And of course that mind is controlled by the party leader, who leads the party balancing the pro-Rajoy factions within and slowly excluding the anti-Rajoyists from any important position. Aznar did similarly.

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 09, 2015, 12:21:43 PM
Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 09, 2015, 02:23:10 PM
But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally ;)

Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.


The deal is that C's seems to be growing fast at the expense of PP and that the rise of a new emerging force together with Podemos implies a death certificate for the two party system.  Also, you are a bit outdated: Ciudadanos is no longer a regional party. They are expanding quickly through the rest of Spain and they got already remarkable results in Madrid and other places in the 2014 EP elections. As for immigration policies, C's leader Albert Rivera thinks that irregular immigrants should not receive the benefits of our universal healthcare system. In that regard he's in the line of the PP government, which excluded irregulars by a royal legislative decree issued in 2012.

Here's a link in Spanish mentioning some C's proposals:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/02/15/54e11134ca4741aa038b4574.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 10, 2015, 01:15:05 PM
But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally ;)

Ah ok ok, but still, the drink offer is in place, although the difficult part would be how to do it, since I only go to Spain for Christmas, summer and (not always) either Carnival or Holy Week. And thanks, but the system is relatively easy, how could I get it wrong :P


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2015, 07:56:10 AM
To summarize recent developments in the conformation of the Podemos candidacies for Madrid, José Manuel López will top the 'official' list and will be the likely regional candidate.  Mr López is an agricultural engineer, expert in religions and worked for Caritas and the CEAR (Spanish Refugee Aid Commission). The number two in the list is lawyer Lorena Ruiz-Huerta, who is a young human rights activist. The candidacy will integrate members of the Convocatoria por Madrid, the platform led by the former IU regional candidate Tania Sánchez, and Equo. In order that discussion "did not focus on persons, but on projects", Tania Sánchez decided to step aside and won't run.

As for the city of Madrid, Podemos ("We Can") and the platform called Ganemos Madrid ("Let's Win Madrid") will run together in the 'instrumental party' called Ahora Madrid ("Now Madrid"). Three lists will compete for the candidacy. The 'official' list (that is to say, the list backed by Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias) will be topped by former judge Manuela Carmena (Madrid, 1944) and includes Rita Maestre (member of the Podemos' national citizen council), Celia Mayer (Ganemos spokeswoman) and Inés Sabanés (Equo, formerly in IU). The second list represents the Podemos members who don't share the strategies of Claro que Podemos ("Of course we can", the Pablo Iglesias' team) and will include people from Ganemos as well. The dissident faction led by Miguel Urbán got remarkable results in the primaries held to elect the Madrid regional "citizen council" (the Podemos' political direction body). The third list will be topped by Mauricio Valiente, who was elected candidate for Mayor of Madrid in the past IU primaries teaming with Tania Sánchez. Unlike Ms. Sánchez, Mr. Valiente is still an IU member. It's uncertain if IU will rally with Ahora Madrid, because of the outright conflict inside IU Madrid.

Interactive map of regional candidates.

http://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-conoce-todos-candidatos-elecciones-autonomicas-2015-20150312124350.html

Regional polls.

Andalusian Parliament election (109 seats):

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

()

My Word / Cadena SER

PSOE 33.6% (42), PP 22.3%(26-27), Podemos 19.9% (24-25), C's 10.7% (9-10), IU 6.2% (6-7), UPyD 2%, PA 1.4%, others 1.4%, blank votes 2.5%

Celeste-Tel / various Andalusian papers

PSOE 36.9% (49), PP 26.6% (34), Podemos 14% (16), C's 8.4% (5), IU 6.8% (5), PA 2.9%, UPyD 2.5%, others 1.9%

Commentia / Grupo Joly

PSOE 35.9% (41-46), PP 30.7% (36-39), Podemos 19.4% (18-21), C's 5.6% (5-6), IU 4.1% (3)

Catalonia:

CEO / Generalitat de Catalunya

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 19.5% (31-32), ERC 18.9% (30-31), C's 12.4% (16-17), Podemos 12.2% (16-17), PP 10.2% (13-14), PSC 8.2% (11-12), CUP 7.3% (10-11), ICV-EUiA 5.8% (6-8), 0thers 3.9%, blank votes 1.6%

Congress of Deputies (general election, 47 seats):

Podemos 21.2% (11-12), CiU 18.8% (12), ERC 15.1% (8-9), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 10.8% (5-6), C's 7.9% (2-3), CUP 3.9% (1), ICV-EUiA 3.7% (1), others 4.9%, blank votes 1.8%

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5268&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+1a+onada+2015

Basque Country (municipal elections):

http://www.electograph.com/2015/03/capitales-vascas-febrero-2015-sondeo.html



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 16, 2015, 12:13:48 PM
The Andalusian campaign reaches the home run, marked by the duel between the parties that represent the "new" and the "old" politics. The outcome will be decided by undecided voters and the future Andalusian government by post-election pacts, given that polls place the likely winner far from getting a majority. Two emerging forces might have the key in the conformation of the government: Podemos and Ciudadanos. While premier Susana Díaz rejects the possibility of dealing with Podemos, she could find an ally if C's fulfills expectations and gets into the regional parliament. A deal between PSOE and C's seems to be the desired outcome for some people in mainstream media, although the new sensation of the Spanish centre-right could charge a high price to Susana Díaz in exchange for stability.

Susana Díaz has been running a personal, self-oriented campaign. The presence of Pedro Sánchez, the national leader of PSOE, has been reduced to the minimum. Sánchez has attended a single rally in Almería opening for Díaz (he didn't appear in the advertising poster of the event: see pic below) and will attend the final act of the campaign. The relationship between Sánchez and Díaz appears to be cold. Susana Díaz focuses on her 18 month management at the head of the regional government, avoiding mentions to 30 years of uninterrupted PSOE rule and specially to Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, both former premiers under investigation for the ERE scandal. She emphasizes that there are no accused people in PSOE lists and her commitment against corruption. Her campaign message avoids mentions to PP corruption scandals as well; instead, she focuses on issues like public healthcare, nursery schools or scholarship grants. The targets of her criticism are the PP anti-social policies and Podemos. The Andalusian premier is a folksy woman who knows how to connect with common people. She is in her natural element in rural communities (where lies the PSOE strength, specially among women) and popular neighbourhoods, where she's cheered and congratulated for her pregnancy. Opening her campaign video, she introduces herself: "Hello, I'm Susana, you know me".

()

In contrast, the rest of candidates have been supported by their national leaders. To counter the low level of knowledge of PP candidate José Manuel Moreno Bonilla, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has been actively present in the campaign. The conservative party tries to contain a flow of voters towards other parties, warning the "false promises" of parties which aspire to hold the balance of power (in allusion to C's) and the dangers of "experiments". PP message can be summarized as "the safest option is the devil you know".

() (http://imgur.com/5D0XHxB)

Podemos candidate Teresa Rodríguez, on her part, speaks cautiously trying to keep fear away and to avoid controversial issues and mistakes; opponents remain alert, trying to take advantage of the first and to whip out the latter. Teresa Rodríguez asks for "the vote of courage" which goes beyond resignation. Even though she's a long time activist who comes from the Anticapitalist Left, Teresa Rodríguez is a young woman who speaks softly and doesn't create the impression of being a light-headed radical. However, some people see her "constrained". Podemos campaign acts are usually crowded, especially when Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders are attending.

Despite the rise of Podemos is damaging IU, regional candidate Antonio Maíllo doesn't focus his criticism on them aside some mentions to the vagueness of their proposals. Maíllo ramarks that he's clearly a man on the left, the only one who is running in this election. The IU candidate prefers to charge against PP and PSOE. In the tripartite electoral debate held at the regional TV with Susana Díaz and José Manuel Moreno, Maíllo reproached them because their parties are filled with corruption and both were throwing the opponent's scandals to the face of the other. Maíllo is supported in public acts by national candidate Alberto Garzón, who deems a deal with PSOE as highly unlikely due to the break of the coalition government which led to the snap election. IU is fighting for preserving its own space.

On the other hand, the actual candidate of Ciudadanos is not the virtually unknown councilor Juan Marín. It's national leader Albert Rivera who often appears in the campaign affiches and supports his regional candidate in the acts throughout Andalusia. The C's campaign started with a controversy when Rivera talked about giving a fishing rod and teaching Andalusian to fish (that region has a remarkable seafaring tradition). Anyway, Rivera seems to have overcome what some people would have considered a sample of Catalan arrogance. Also, PP spokepersons know how to campaign for him, even without wanting. The delegate of the government in Andalusia dropped a clanger by saying that he doesn't want a Catalan governing Andalusia. Albert Rivera has something in common with the PP candidate: both were born in Barcelona and have family roots in Andalusia.

()

Meanwhile, UPyD is fighting to survive. The hopes for the future of the party led by Rosa Díez are vanishing while Ciudadanos, the rival party which competes for the same space, seems to be in a poll honeymoon. Díez, who has been supporting the UPyD candidate Martin de la Herrán in Andalusia, says that waters run murky and there's more competence than before, but she assures that her party is solidly established in Spain. As well Ms Díez thinks that there's a clear motivation in some opinion polls, which in her opinion are aimed to direct the vote. Despite she claims having been under a "brutal pressure" and "attacks", she's determined to resist, endure and face up.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/15/55048d5e22601d41248b456e.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 18, 2015, 08:49:36 AM
Everything points to a PSOE minority government in Andalusia, if we take into account the last statements of Mariano Rajoy and some of the candidates. The Spanish PM assured on Monday that he will allow to govern the party with the most votes. Rajoy, who is fully committed to the campaign, said in a rally held in Málaga that voting IU, Podemos, C's and UPyD is underpinning PSOE in the regional government. On the other hand, Podemos and C's candidates discarded the option of joining a coalition government. Podemos' Teresa Rodríguez was categorical in saying that she's not going to be in a cabinet presided by Susana Díaz, while C's Juan Marín stated that compromising with PSOE is betraying the illusion of their voters.

For his part, IU candidate is engaging in a fight to recover those potential voters running away to Podemos; both parties are ignoring each other in the campaign. There's some lukewarm optimism among IU membership because last polls don't predict a collapse; Maíllo assures that they will give a surprise in the election day and be decisive in the next regional parliament. Also, UPyD spokeswoman Rosa Díaz is campaigning in Andalusia hunting for undecided. Party volunteers are telephoning voters, as well Ms Díez and the regional candidate. They seek being original by initiatives such as improvising meetings in trams or cleaning the Andalusian Parliament with a wipe (in the pic below, Rosa Díez and Martín de la Herrán in full corruption cleansing).

()

On the other hand, the crisis in IU Madrid is far from being solved. People at the regional federation (IUCM) decided to run a proper list for the municipal elections, after they called referendum recently to reject the IU's involvement in Ahora Madrid with Podemos and other organisations. Candidate elect Mauricio Valiente has the choice of leaving the party or renouncing to run in the Ahora Madrid primaries. It's a blow for the IU national leadership, which intended to solve the conflict after the Andalusian elections. They fear the repetition of the events which some years ago led to the break of the IU's Basque federation.


Title: Andalusian election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 21, 2015, 05:59:11 AM
End of campaign, if anybody cares. Seven candidates in the face of the polls. Summary of mistakes and hits.

Susana Díaz (PSOE):

The incumbent premier intends to win broad enough, in order to govern without problems. A presumed lack of stability in the coalition government was the reason gave by Susana Díaz to break the deal with IU; if she gets a bad result, she will be placed in a weak position. On the other hand, if she manages to gain a forceful victory which helps PSOE to avoid disaster at national level, her influence in the party will be unquestionable. Despite she claims that will stay governing Andalusia, Ms Díaz is the preferred leader for many PSOE heads.

- Hits: She had ran a grassroot campaign aimed to recover the typical socialist voters and has a remarkable ability to connect with the man (and the woman) in the street.

- Mistakes: In live television debates, she left a negative impression. Díaz played an anti-dialogue role, neither listening nor keeping the opponents' speaking time.

- Main proposals: Commitment against corruption and creation of an Anti-Fraud Office, lowering taxes, preservation of social services.

Juan Manuel Moreno (PP):

The challenge of the PP candidate is trying to avoid the bad results that polls have been predicting, with losses ranging between 10 and more than 20 seats. PP fears a knock-on effect in the May municipal elections; the conservative majorities in the Andalusian provincial capitals are at stake.

- Hits: Keeping calm in the debates, gaining an impression of reasonability before Susana Díaz.

- Mistakes: Waiting until the campaign to work on his public image, especially when he was a complete unknown for many Andalusians.

. Main proposals: Mariano Rajoy promised to create 1 million of jobs (literally) during the legislative period, as well as re-industrialisation policies and lowering taxes.

Antonio Maíllo (IU):

The IU candidate tries to preserve the IU strength in the Andalusian Parliament, retaining the 12 seats or at least containing losses.

- Hits: Serious campaign focused on proposals, good performance in debates.

- Mistakes: He has performed a complicated dance trying to highlight the positive aspects of the PSOE-IU coalition government while bashing socialists, as well as to make a difference with Podemos without explicit mentions to them.

- Main proposals: Guaranteeing basic supplies, Public Bank and creation of a Bank of Land.

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos):

Her main challenge is not disappointing the expectations. Polls predict that Podemos will get strongly in the Andalusian Parliament as the third party with no less than 15 seats. After the election, she will seek the post of regional secretary general. Depending on results, this election might be the first step of the possible change that Podemos is promising for the country. If the result doesn't fulfill expectations, it could be considered as a sign of the beginning of Podemos decline.

- Hits: Booking a velodrome in Dos Hermanas (near Seville) for the final campaign rally, which took place tonight with an attendance estimated between 12 and 15 thousand people, the most crowded of the journey. That facility has been an emblematic place for the Andalusian socialists.

- Mistakes: Renouncing to intervene in a live television debate in which the alternative forces were invited. Podemos sent another representative.

- Main proposals: Citizen's rescue establishing an emergency program for people in risk of social exclusion and eviction; limitation of terms; right of revocation at midterm; audit of public accounts; Office of Public Participation in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Juan Marín (Ciudadanos):

Ciudadanos wants to be the party which holds the balance of power in Andalusia, a result unthinkable few months ago.

- Hits: The campaign highlighted the C's label over the low profile of the candidate, with the ubiquitous and good looking Albert Rivera playing the starring role.

- Mistakes: The Rivera's "fishing rod" metaphor at the beginning of the campaign, which sounded arrogant to Andalusian people.

- Main proposals: Local reform merging municipalities below 5,000 people; integrated action plan for families, freelancers and SMEs; administrative rationalisation to prevent squandering.

Martín de la Herrán (UPyD):

The UPyD candidate is the only who ran in 2012. This election might be the last chance for UPyD to get into the regional parliament.

- Hits: Original and suggestive campaign.

- Mistakes: Despite the above mentioned, UPyD has been blurred by Podemos and Ciudadanos.

- Main proposals: Fight against corruption, legislation to prevent budget cuts.

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (PA):

The regionalist Andalusian Party has been unrepresented in the regional parliament since 2008. The PA enters in the 50th year of existence.

- Hits: Not giving up.

- Mistakes: Pretending to be the only ones whom wave the Andalusian flag. On the other hand, advocating for regional patriotism is not enough in the current state of affairs.

Freak Time!!!

()

The ultraconservative Vox Party broadcasted a campaign video recreating a dystopian islamized Andalusia in the year 2018. An hypothetical (and obviously mean) Podemos-PSOE administration would have expropriated the Mosque of Córdoba and the Giralda of Seville from the hands of the Catholic Church, in order to consecrate them for Muslim worship. Spanish PM Pablo Iglesias (Podemos), representatives from 20 Muslim countries and even Celia Villalobos from the Andalusian PP would be attending a great event at the Córdoba Mosque. One can suppose that the reestablishment of the Cordoba Caliphate would be around corner.

All this nonsense is due to a Podemos proposal to return those historical monuments to public ownership. The Mosque and the Giralda were granted to the Church during the Franco regime and the Bishopric of Córdoba collects a good sum of money by selling tickets to visitors, with the aggravating factor that information leaflets name the monument "Cathedral", which is certainly unhistorical. Given that after the Castilian conquest the Mosque was consecrated to Christian worship, many people calls the monument "Mosque-Cathedral".



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on March 22, 2015, 07:29:30 AM
So how are things looking ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 08:10:38 AM
This is what is saying the online paper eldiario.es. Take it with a grain of salt.

Apparently, internal surveys commissioned by the main parties place PSOE between 45 and 48 seats, falling short between 7 and 10 seats of a majority. PP would lose much ground getting between 23% and 25% of the vote and winning 29-31 seats. Podemos would win around 15 seats, which sounds somewhat disappointing. Ciudadanos would get into the regional parliament winning more than 10 seats and holding the balance of power. Finally, IU would place 5th.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 08:42:52 AM
It seems that turnout is going to be higher than it was in 2012. At 14:00 (CET) was nearly 34% (+4.7%).

Turnout by province at 14:00, from the official website.

Almería 32.87% (+3.65%)

Cádiz 31.15% (+5.4%)

Córdoba 35.96% (+4.11%)

Granada 34.8% (+3.95%)

Huelva 30.8% (+3.78%)

Jaén 36.76% (+3.87%)

Málaga 32.22% (+4.13%)

Sevilla 33.94% (+5.94%)

Total Andalusia 33.94% (+4.65%)

http://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2015.es/01AVAU/DAU01000CI_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 12:57:21 PM
Turnout at 18:00 (CET)

Almería 48.35% (+2.39%)

Cádiz 48.19% (+6.34%)

Córdoba 53.57% (+3.34%)

Granada 51.86% (+2.44%)

Huelva 46.88% (+2.76%)

Jaén 54.2% (+1.85%)

Málaga 49.61% (+4.95%)

Sevilla 54.83% (+5.3%)

Total Andalusia 51.41% (+4.2%)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 01:21:05 PM
First results will be released at 21:00 (CET). It's half an hour later than it was intended and it's due to some problem in a polling station located in Jerez (Cádiz).

Turnout is increasing more in left-leaning districts of Seville. For instance, it's nearly 10% up in Este-Alcosa-Torreblanca and about 9% up in Macarena Norte. PP strongholds in the city are recording lower increases (Los Remedios +1.1%, Nervión + 3.8%).

In the Cádiz province, turnout in Puerto Real is increasing more than 10%. In the EP elections PSOE got around 40% and Podemos placed second with 19%.

In general, turnout is increasing more in urban than rural areas.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 01:38:07 PM
According to journalist Javier Casqueiro (El País), there is concern at PSOE and PP because they are polling bad at Israelites.

The same journalist provides a projection based on exit polls via Tweeter:

PSOE 41-43 seats, PP 33-36, Podemos 23-26, IU 6, C's 6.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 02:12:52 PM
Canal Sur Exit Poll

PSOE  33.1% (41-44 seats), PP 26.9% (32-35), Podemos 17.5% (19-22),  C's 8% (6-7), IU 7.3% (6-7).

Official results in approx 1 hour:

http://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2015.es/01AU/DAU01999CM_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 03:33:58 PM
The count is going fast. At 53.1%

PSOE 37.6% (50 seats), PP 25.03% (32), Podemos 14.96% (15), C's 8.61% ( 8 ), IU 6.97% (4), UPyD 1.87%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.41%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: jeron on March 22, 2015, 03:45:41 PM
The count is going fast. At 53.1%

PSOE 37.6% (50 seats), PP 25.03% (32), Podemos 14.96% (15), C's 8.61% ( 8 ), IU 6.97% (4), UPyD 1.87%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.41%

After about 70% of the vote counted, PSOE is still at 50 seats. So, it seems  the exit poll has underestimated PSOE a bit (and overestimated Podemos)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Diouf on March 22, 2015, 03:58:38 PM
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: jeron on March 22, 2015, 04:20:01 PM
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Diouf on March 22, 2015, 04:42:26 PM
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.

But I'm quite sure that the PSOE would have liked it as a majority possibility when proposing laws. In many cases they would probably still be the easiest party for them to agree with


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 04:54:07 PM
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.

But I'm quite sure that the PSOE would have liked it as a majority possibility when proposing laws. In many cases they would probably still be the easiest party for them to agree with

There will be a PSOE minority government, in all likelihood propped up by Ciudadanos. A PSOE-C's coalition agreement is very unlikely, given that there are many elections this year and joining a socialist cabinet would harm the Albert Rivera party. Firstly, because many of C's voters come from PP; secondly, because they intend to represent the "new politics" in competition with Podemos.

The count is almost finished and the picture is not going to move.

At 99.4%:

PSOE 35.45% (47 seats), PP 26.74% (33), Podemos 14.84% (15), C's 9,27% (9), IU 6.89% (5), UPyD 1.93%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.45%

In a quick valuation, I'd say...

Winners: Susana Díaz (PSOE), Albert Rivera (C's)

Podemos: Mixed feelings. It's really a strong result for a new party, but not enough to change things (and they expected around 20 seats)

Losers: Mariano Rajoy (PP), IU, UPyD


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 05:32:35 PM
Provincial results (100% counted)

Almería: PP 36.99% (5 seats), PSOE 32.84% (5), Podemos 10.92% (1), C's 9,38% (1), IU 4,18% (-)

Cádiz: PSOE 31.63% (6), PP 24.01% (4), Podemos 18.87% (3), C's 10.42% (1), IU 6.69% (1)

Córdoba: PSOE 35.97% (5), PP 27.33% (4), Podemos 12.58% (1), IU 10.01% (1), C's 7.68% (1)

Granada: PSOE 34.61% (5), PP 30.02% (4), Podemos 13.89% (2), C's 9.57% (1), IU 6.1% (1)

Huelva: PSOE 40.96% (6), PP 26.43% (3), Podemos 13.14% (1), C's 7.14% (1), IU 6.25% (-)

Jaén: PSOE 42.68% (6), PP 29.08% (4), Podemos 11.04% (1), C's 5.95% (-), IU 5.73% (-)

Málaga: PSOE 30.11% (6), PP 28.34% (5), Podemos 15.08% (3), C's 11.78% (2), IU 7.37% (1)

Sevilla: PSOE 38.09% ( 8 ), PP 22% (4), Podemos 16.58% (3), C's 9.14% (2), IU 7.02% (1)

Top 10 cities:

Sevilla: PSOE 30.8%, PP 27.18%, Podemos 17.97%, C's 11.54%, IU 5.44%

Málaga: PP 27.49%, PSOE 25.33%, Podemos 17.86%, C's 14.09%, IU 7.09%

Córdoba: PP 32.48%, PSOE 23.5%, Podemos 16.06%, C's 11.44%, IU 9.49%

Granada: PP 37.62%, PSOE 21.78%, Podemos 15.52%, C's 13.81%, IU 5.11%

Jerez: PSOE 29.16%, PP 25.67%, Podemos 19.04%, C's 12.07%, IU 6.19%

Almería: PP 36.99%, PSOE 32.84%, Podemos 10.92%, C's 9.38%, IU 4.18%

Huelva: PSOE 30.89%, PP 26.49%, Podemos 17.71%, C's 11.48%, IU 6.1%

Marbella: PP 31.98%, PSOE 29.79%, Podemos 13.92%, C's 11.12%, IU 5,62%

Dos Hermanas: PSOE 34.45%, Podemos 21.85%, PP 17.78%, C's 11.73%, IU 6.24%

Cádiz: Podemos 28.93%, PP 25.53%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 11.81%, IU 5.1%

On a side note, Podemos comes first ahead of PSOE in Puerto Real (Cádiz province) and IU wins in Marinaleda (Seville). The latter is the fiefdom of the 'revolutionary' agrarian Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, who has been switching between IU and Podemos: IU got 43% of the vote (67% in 2012) and Podemos 29%.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 07:22:46 PM
Assessment of the outcome by Ignacio Escolar (summarized)

1) Susana Díaz won. In the present circumstances, winning the same number of seats as in 2012 (despite having lost 120,000 votes) is a reason for celebration in the Andalusian PSOE. A deal with C's is possible, but she really doesn't need them to govern in minority.

2) Susana Díaz will find harder her leap to Madrid: she committed herself with Andalusia and, by the moment, the influential former PM Felipe González is not for favouring the move. It can't be discarded anyway. It's not clear if the result is good for PSOE nationwide or just a personal triumph for Díaz.

3) Double defeat for PP: conservatives fall from 50 to 33 seats and face competence from the centre-right: Ciudadanos. Since early 90s to date, PP has exercised a monopoly in the space between the centre and the far-right.

4) The main loser is Mariano Rajoy. He will face some pressure inside his ranks, even some people may suggest that Mr Rajoy shouldn't be candidate. However, it's possible that nothing happens in PP until the May elections have passed.

5) Escolar thinks that Podemos got a great result in a territory difficult for them. However, the result doesn't fulfill their previous expectations. Also, with that result it will be hard for Podemos to become in the first party in Spain.

6) IU bears the worst brunt of the Podemos surge and the coalition government with PSOE, usual fate of minor parties. The only good news is that they retain the 5 seats needed to form a parliamentary group.

7) The two-party system comes out damaged, but not dead. However, in the present convulse climate of the Spanish politics Andalusia is her own microclimate. In the next May elections PP and PSOE could not resist the tide in all territories.


Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias announces via Facebook that he and former IU candidate for Madrid Tania Sánchez are no longer in a relationship. According to Iglesias, they make it public in order to avoid rumours and malicious comments in this phase of pre-electoral full negotiating mode. Tania Sánchez published the same message in her wall. Strange announcement in an election night.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 23, 2015, 05:15:29 PM
Great results! In 5 years the arrogant postmodernists of POBREMOS would be just a bad memory.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 23, 2015, 09:04:43 PM
Great results! In 5 years the arrogant postmodernists of POBREMOS would be just a bad memory.

I was missing your trolling, where have you been? ;)

Firstly, in five years we could be all dead; secondly, you spelled bad the name of the party.

As for "arrogant postmodernists", I could agree to some extent on the first epithet in the case certain Podemos leaders (normal, every organisation must have a quota of arrogance). I don't know what are you meaning with "postmodernist", maybe because of your usual lack of elaboration. In any case, "post-Gramscian" could be more fitting. Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?

Probably not. Anyway, he was a political theorist who died a few years ago and apparently his theories influenced a certain Íñigo Errejón, who passes to be the Podemos mastermind. I think that I intended to talk about him before. At least, your post has brought it to my mind.



Vote shifts:

()



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 24, 2015, 05:11:49 PM
Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?


I've wrote some small articles against him.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on March 24, 2015, 05:14:25 PM
Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?


I've wrote some small articles against him.

More of a Chantal Mouffe man, eh?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 24, 2015, 05:20:24 PM
He was better than Hardt & Negri, that's for sure.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 24, 2015, 05:27:55 PM
Nice article from El Plural: "The 6 mistakes of PABLEMOS":

http://www.elplural.com/2015/03/22/seis-errores-que-explican-el-pinchazo-de-podemos-en-andalucia/


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 24, 2015, 06:44:46 PM
Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?


I've wrote some small articles against him.

More of a Chantal Mouffe man, eh?

A bit more than her consort and vice versa, I guess.

It's a pity that not all the people here is fluent in Spanish. Anyway this one is for you two: Pablo Iglesias interviews Chantal Mouffe (full program, 53 m)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXS5zqijfA4

Do you have links to your "little articles"?

Anyway:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/09/ernesto-laclau-intellectual-figurehead-syriza-podemos

Quote
When Ernesto Laclau passed away last April aged 78, few would have guessed that this Argentinian-born, Oxford-educated post-Marxist would become the key intellectual figure behind a political process that exploded into life a mere six weeks later, when Spanish leftist party Podemos won five seats and 1.2m votes in last May’s European elections (...)

Íñigo Errejón wrote the following obituary:

http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/1578-ernesto-laclau-theorist-of-hegemony

Quote
Although I had a few of his books on the shelves of my childhood home, it was not until the last year of my degree that I read Ernesto Laclau, together with his personal and intellectual compañera Chantal Mouffe, for a 2005-6 seminar by Professor Javier Franzé. I remember how dense and complex the fragment of Hegemony and Socialist Strategy struck me as, and I would later return to it pencil in hand. But certainly already it shook up some of my certainties and opened up a field of intellectual curiosity to which I would subsequently devote myself (...)

Nice article from El Plural: "The 6 mistakes of PABLEMOS":

http://www.elplural.com/2015/03/22/seis-errores-que-explican-el-pinchazo-de-podemos-en-andalucia/

Well, El Plural is not the epitome of impartiality. Podemos made mistakes in the campaign which the article mentions, but some appreciations in the text are not worthy of the name. Still, it's shocking to qualify the result as it was a failure for Podemos. It's their fault too, because they contributed to create the impression that they had more chances of winning of placing second than they actually had. It's the problem of creating so high expectations, when they are not fulfilled they can create a negative public perception. They'll have to learn, as well as to realise that they are not playing a tennis match in an impeccable English court; politics is more like American Football (and additionally they have media against them). At the end of the day, polls were this time (shockingly) accurate and even the more optimistic placed them third.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ag on March 24, 2015, 11:02:31 PM
Missed this one was today!

Not bad. Happy PSOE held. Hopefully, Podamos remains a one-season wonder.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 26, 2015, 04:28:01 PM
Premier Susana Díaz is holding consultations with the leaders of the different parties; namely Juan Manuel Moreno (PP), Juan Marín (C's) and Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos). Immediately after the election, Díaz stated that PSOE will govern in minority seeking occasional support from other forces. Susana Díaz has to pass the investiture session first, in which she needs to get a majority of votes in the first round and a plurality of votes in the second (more "yeses" than "nos", in other words).

Regardless what Mariano Rajoy suggested in the campaign, PP changed its mind on Monday. In exchange of allowing the premier's investiture, they demanded reciprocity to the socialists in the next municipal elections (they should allow PP to govern in those municipalities in which their lists get more votes). After the meeting with Díaz, PP's Juan Manuel Moreno said that his party will vote "no" in the first round of the investiture, because they don't believe in Díaz's "recipes", PP's project is "alternative and not complementary" and their stances are opposed in a wide range of issues.

C's Juan Marín, on his part, stated that his party has no intention to join a coalition government and won't support the investiture of Díaz. "Her program is not ours", he said. On Monday, Albert Rivera marked a red line. He demanded that former premiers Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, both involved in the investigation of the ERE scandal, must resign from their posts in the Spanish Congress. If that condition was fulfilled, Juan Marín would talk with Díaz in the second round.  C's seeks to condition the regional government's agenda from the opposition and ambitions to turn Andalusia in an example of "new politics", in order to consolidate the belief that a "third way" is possible in Spain.

Podemos' Teresa Rodríguez concurred in demanding the immediate resignation of Chaves and Griñán for their political responsibility in the corruption scandals, as well as imposed other two conditions: those financial institutions which have cooperation agreements with the regional government must compromise in not implementing evictions; and the regional government must eliminate a number of advisers and posts of confidence. (the latter condition was demanded as well by C's, together with a reform of the electoral law) If socialists don't accept, Podemos will vote "no".

The Andalusian Parliament will hold the constitutive seeting on April 16 and the investiture must take place before 30.

UPyD is now in full internal crisis. The party's executive is facing great criticism and some of its members have resigned, national deputy Irene Lozano among them.

Regional election polls.

Valencia: Sigma Dos / Las Provincias

PP 30.6% (33-36), PSOE 19.4% (21.22), Podemos 14.3% (15-16), C's 12.9% (14), Compromís 10.2% (9-10), IU 5.2% (4), UPyD 3.9%

(The legislature has 99 seats and there's a 5% threshold at regional level)

Murcia: CEMOP / La Verdad

PP 37.6%, PSOE 21.2%, Podemos 15.7%, C's 15.1%, IU 5.4%, UPyD 3.1%

(No projection of seats)

Navarre: Gizaker / Noticias de Navarra

UPN 24.2% (15 seats), Podemos 16.4% (9), Geroa Bai 15.8% (9), EH Bildu 14.4% (8), PSOE 13.9% (7), PP 5.2% (2), IU 3.3% (1), C's 3% (1), UPyD 2.3%

(50 seats, 3% threshold)

Cantabria: Ikerfel / El Diario Montañés

PP 34.8% (13-14), Regionalists 17.6% (6-7), PSOE 15.3% (5-6), Podemos 13.1% (5), C's 12.5% (4-5), IU 4.1%

(35 seats, 5% threshold)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Peeperkorn on March 29, 2015, 05:51:47 AM
PODIAMOS is more "establishment" than IU or Cs. Hilarious.

Now they ask "their people" for 50.000 euros to make their own polls. What a (ink)ing joke.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/27/5515a01bca474182518b457e.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 29, 2015, 12:29:36 PM
Map time. Leading party by municipality in the 2015 Andalusian parliamentary election:

()

The PSOE's dominant position in the Andalusian countryside remains basically unaltered, while the main difference with regard to the 2012 election is that PP's prevalence in urban and coastal areas has vanished somewhat, which is observable at first sight comparing this map with that of the previous election posted on page 5 in this very thread. In the 2012 election PP placed first in all provincial capitals; this time PP lost Seville and Huelva to PSOE and Cádiz to Podemos, retaining weak pluralities in Málaga (<30%) and Córdoba (>30%) and resisting better in the eastern Andalusian capitals (Granada, Almería and Jaén). By provinces, Seville remained as a socialist bastion with some losses (around 34,000 votes, PP lost more than 100,000) and winning in the main urban centres (Dos Hermanas, Alcalá de Guadaíra, Écija and Utrera). In the Málaga province, PP remains as the first party in the Costa del Sol municipalities (Marbella, Fuengirola, Estepona) and other coastal centres such as Nerja or Rincón de la Victoria, albeit with serious losses. However, it lost Vélez-Málaga and Mijas in the coast and the inland centres of Ronda and Antequera to PSOE. While PP won in the city of Granada, the metropolitan area (Vega de Granada) and the rest of the province (including Motril in the coast) went to the socialists. Almería was the best province for PP; they placed first losing around 36,000 votes and retained strongholds such as El Ejido. In Córdoba PP lost much ground in the capital and 115,000 votes in the whole province (PSOE lost around 15,000). In Huelva PP lost more than 28,000 votes (PSOE around 5,5 thousand) and only retained a handful of municipalities, being the most important Lepe (export agriculture, strawberries). In Jaén PSOE won in all municipalities but six, PP retains the capital (the provincial boss said they are invincible there) but lost important provincial centres (Andújar and La Carolina). Cádiz witnessed a PP's free fall, losing the first place in nearly all the municipalities in the Bay of Cádiz (except Rota and Puerto de Santa María and with great losses), as well as the centres in the Bay of Algeciras, next to Gibraltar. Podemos won in the city of Cádiz, once a PP bastion, and the nearby Puerto Real (this town was once on IU's hands). PSOE came first in the rest of urban centres and remained strong in the countryside (La Sierra and La Janda) as usual.

There's a municipal interactive map in El País website which, for some strange reason, hasn't been updated with the full count, thus it has some errors. However it's somewhat useful to check the party strength (you must click on the party's boxes placed down right).

http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-andaluzas/graficos/municipios/

The party maps show that both emerging forces, Podemos and Ciudadanos, performed strongly in urban centres but their level of support was considerably lower in rural areas, with singular exceptions in the case of Podemos. In the Podemos map it's somewhat easy to check that their level of support oscillated between 15% and 20% in the provincial capitals, even more in Cádiz where they won a plurality. In Seville and Málaga, Podemos placed second in several working-class municipal districts behind PSOE, as well as in Sevilla Centro behind PP. In peri-urban localities around Seville and many municipalities in the Bay of Cádiz Podemos performed above 20%. It's remarkable that Podemos was close of placing first in El Coronil, a rural municipality south of Seville, getting more than 40%. It's the hometown of agrarian union leader Diego Cañamero (SAT, CUT). C's strongplaces were the provincial capitals and they did quite well in Costa del Sol municipalities. I think the C's strongest result was in Espartinas, west of Seville. C's came second in the Seville district of Los Remedios, where PP got more than 60% of the vote in this election and more than 80% in 2012. IU retained some of its rural traditional strongholds (Marinaleda, Trebujena, etc). Finally, the map of the Andalusian Party (PA) has certain interest in order to watch which are the municipalities where they maintain a certain strength. I think the strongest PA performance was Alanís in Seville province.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 30, 2015, 04:46:55 AM
PODIAMOS is more "establishment" than IU or Cs. Hilarious.

Now they ask "their people" for 50.000 euros to make their own polls. What a (ink)ing joke.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/27/5515a01bca474182518b457e.html

Wow, I overlooked this. What's the issue here? Those polls will be financed by microcredits, which is the way that Podemos has chosen to fund electoral campaigns. They are asking their people a voluntary contribution, which will be repaid eventually once Podemos receives the state funds every party is legally allocated according to the votes they get in elections. If their people don't want to contribute, Podemos won't call on banks because that's their policy. What's the reason for all of that pointless trolling? God.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 31, 2015, 04:22:36 PM
Rather long article on Podemos by Gilles Tremlett, The Guardian correspondent in Madrid. It's worthy of reading because it covers many angles, more than the displayed in the random quotes below.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/31/podemos-revolution-radical-academics-changed-european-politics?CMP=fb_gu


Biographic sketch.

Quote
He is not the first Pablo Iglesias to shake Spain’s political order. He is named after the man who founded the PSOE in 1879. (His parents first met at a remembrance ceremony in front of Iglesias’s tomb.) As a teenager, Iglesias was a member of the Communist Youth in Vallecas, one of Madrid’s poorest and proudest barrios (...)  Even as a teenager, he was “a leader and great seducer”, recalled a senior Podemos member who had attended the same youth group. Iglesias studied law at the Complutense University before taking a second undergraduate degree in political science. He went on to write a PhD thesis on disobedience and anti-globalisation protests that was awarded a prestigious cum laude grade.

Ideological influences: Gramsci, Laclau and Moffe.

Quote
It was at Complutense, where he began to lecture after receiving his doctorate, that Iglesias met the key figures who would help him found Podemos. Deeply influenced by Antonio Gramsci, the Italian Marxist thinker who argued that a key battle was over the machinery that shaped public opinion, this group also found inspiration at the University of Essex. There, the Argentine academic Ernesto Laclau began in the 1970s to write a series of works on Marxism, populism and demoracy which, along with work by his Belgian wife Chantal Mouffe (now at the University of Westminister), have had a profound impact on Podemos’s leadership. Their complex 1985 book, Hegemony and Socialist Strategy, remains a key point of reference for Podemos’s leadership.

Direct democracy,  the unsolved question of balancing grassroot activism and the Iglesias' clique of university professors.

Quote
If Podemos wants to be more than a traditional party or a top-heavy populist movement then it must deliver on direct democracy. The party’s use of transparency websites (detailing all spending, including salaries), voting tools and online debate is already cutting-edge. Its Plaza Podemos debating site regularly attracts between 10,000 and 20,000 daily visitors. “Nothing on this scale using online tools is happening anywhere else in the world,” Ben Knight, one of the entrepreneurs behind a collaborative decision-making app, Loomio, told me.

But on the wider use of direct democracy, as with other matters, Podemos does not yet have a settled strategy. The only fixed principles are that senior party members, including Iglesias, should be sackable by referendum, and that post-electoral coalitions must be voted on by supporters. Whether Podemos can balance the demands of its grassroots activists, who expect to shape policy, with the powerful influence of Iglesias and his clique of Complutense academics, remains one of the most challenging questions for the party’s future.

The uncertain and changing political scene.

Quote
Regional elections on 24 May will show whether Podemos has peaked. In recent months, Ciudadanos, a new centre-right rival, has transformed the political landscape once again. With its pledge to oust the establishment and usher in a new era of transparent, corruption-free politics, Ciudadanos offers a safe alternative to those scared of Podemos. It even has, in Albert Rivera, a young and charismatic – but far more orthodox – leader to rival Iglesias. A resurgent Spanish economy, now growing and creating jobs much faster than most of Europe, may boost Rajoy at the general election or, at least, hand a semi-healed economy to whoever succeeds him. Press scrutiny, which has shone light on the close links between some senior Podemos people and Venezuela, also hurt their brand just before March 22 elections for the parliament of the strongly socialist southern region of Andalucia, where they nevertheless doubled their vote (from European elections) to 15%.

But the Podemos earthquake has already shattered the status quo, forcing the PSOE into electing a young new leader – Pedro Sánchez – while IU disintegrates into bitter infighting over whether to ally with the party that may prove its nemesis. El País’s pollster narrowly makes Podemos Spain’s most popular party, but the party cannot enter government without seeking coalition allies among the “old” parties it damns as part of “la casta”. That may force it into opposition. “Hopefully Podemos would be willing to work with us,” former PSOE minister Juan Fernando López Aguilar told me in Brussels in December. “But so far, I perceive a threatening mix of arrogance, self-infatuation and condescension.”

Conclusion.

Quote
It is tempting to see Podemos as a well-planned operation by a group of talented academics, following a populist script written by a line of radical thinkers, but that would be too simple. It is really the result of an open-ended effort by unorthodox idealists to effect change, combining youthful conviction with a desire to test out their ideas in the real world. As it attempts to forge a new consensus, however, it is inevitably drifting away from its radical roots. At a class Iglesias gave to visiting students at the European parliament in December – perhaps his last for a long time – he recognised that if he governs by Europe’s current capitalist rules, leftwing critics will accuse him of being a cowardly reformist. “The answer to that is: ‘And where are your arms for getting rid of capitalism?’” he said. Realism, then, as much as idealism, will dictate Podemos’s future. Only when put into practice will we discover how, or if, the Podemos participative “method” changes democracy, European politics or ordinary lives. But what is certain is that Iglesias has proved the point he liked to make to his students: the powerful really can be challenged.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on April 17, 2015, 07:48:03 AM
So polls are all over the place right now. Podemos is polling between 12 and 22, C's are consistently polling in the high 10s, UPyD seems to have basically vanished from the picture, and there are a few polls which show a near four-way race for first place at around 20 amongst PSOE, PP, Podemos and C's...

C's seems not just the flavo of the week, are they here in the 16% or so to stay ? Could Spaniards help us a bit to understand what's going on ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 17, 2015, 04:05:04 PM
It's hard to tell what's going on, given that polls are showing extremely volatile tendencies in the electorate. Average polling since the beginning of the year places PP and PSOE stable slightly above the 25% and the 20% line, respectively. The big difference is that Podemos reached a peak by the end of 2014 and started to decrease in the first months of 2015, while C's has emerged abruptly in the same period. Right now Podemos is polling just below the 20% line and C's is surpassing the 15% line in the wiki graph:

()


This seems to suggest a certain readjustment in the protest vote due to the emergence of a new centre-right party which is collecting much of the voters angry at PP, especially the young and urban middle-to-upper class segment. C's has replaced Podemos as the flavor of the month, although the latter remains strong. Podemos seems to have lost some of its cross-party appeal, due to the emergence of a new actor which promises a "sensible change" to moderate voters (Albert Rivera says that C's is "justice" while Podemos is "vengeance"). That message can touch that portion of the population which hasn't lost everything in the present crisis and can perceive the effect of the slight economic recovery. However, government policy has caused a growing inequality, poverty and social exclusion. I guess that large section pushed to the bottom must be more receptive to Podemos than C's. 

In any case, regional and local elections next month will sketch an extreme fragmentation which will force parties to make deals in order to assure governability. Coalition and governability agreements can determine how things evolve in the second half of the year until the general election takes place.

Meanwhile, former deputy PM and IMF head Rodrigo Rato was arrested yesterday:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/04/17/inenglish/1429284321_297633.html

Quote
Rodrigo Rato, a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief and senior government official who was briefly arrested on Thursday in connection with a financial crimes investigation, told EL PAÍS that he owns no companies in tax havens or in any country outside the European Union.

The Tax Agency is investigating Rato, once a top official with the ruling Popular Party (PP), for tax fraud, asset stripping and money laundering (...)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 17, 2015, 05:09:27 PM
Summary of recent polls:

General election:

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 26.6%, Podemos 20.9%, PSOE 19.7%, C's 16.6%, IU 4.4%, ERC 2.3%, CiU 2.1%, PNV 1.2%, UPyD 1.1%

Electograph "Poll of Polls"

()

Regional Elections:

Canary Islands (Total: 60 seats): TSA / regional papers

CC 18,9% (14-17 seats), PP 19.7% (11-14), PSOE 18.4% (11-14), NC 11.9% (5-7), Podemos 11.1% (5-6), C's 9,3% (5-6), UNIDOS 4.1% (-)*, ASG 0.5% (1)**

* Coalition including the Canary Nationalist Centre (CCN), the incumbent PP president of the Gran Canaria Cabildo and several small insular groupings.

** PSOE split in La Gomera island led by Casimiro Curbelo.


Castilla y León (Total: 84 seats): Sigma Dos

PP 39.6% (39-43 seats), PSOE 22.2% (21-23), Podemos 13.8% (9-11), C's 13.3% (9-10), IU 5.6% (1), UPL* 1.3% (1)

* Leon regionalist

Valencia (Total: 99 seats): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 29.9% (30-32 seats), PSOE 19.5% (20-21), Podemos 17.3% (17-19), C's 15.2% (15-16), Compromís 8.4% (8), IU 6.8% (6), UPyD 1.6% (-)

Balearic Islands (Total: 59 seats): IBES / Última Hora

PP 22-24 seats, PSOE 13-15, Podemos 8-10, MÉS* 4-6, C's 3-5, PI** 2-3, Guanyem-IU 1-2, Gent (Formentera)*** 1

* Més per Mallorca: left-leaning Catalan nationalist ** Proposta per les Illes: centre-right regionalist *** Left-leaning insular party.

Madrid (Total: 129 seats): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 32.8% (44-45 seats), PSOE 20.7% (28), Podemos 19.2% (25-26), C's 16.6% (22-23), IU 6.5% (8-9), UPyD 1.8% (-)

Local elections:

Madrid (57 councilors): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 34.5% (20-22), AM* 21.2% (12-13), PSOE 18.7% (11), C's 15.1% (9), IU 6.4% (3-4), UPyD 1.4% (-)

* Ahora Madrid: Podemos+Ganemos Madrid

Barcelona (41 councilors): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

BEC* 22.3% (10), CiU 21.4% (9-10), C's 14.6% (6-7), PSC 13.2% (5-6), ERC 12.5% (5-6), PP 10.3% (4), CUP 2.7% (-)

* Barcelona en Comú: Guanyem, Podemos, ICV-EUiA


Valencia (33 councilors): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 31.8% (11-13), C's 16.7% (6), VEC*15.8% (5-6), PSOE 14.8% (5-6), Compromís 12% (4), IU 4.4% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-)

* Valencia en Comú: Podemos+Guanyem Valencia


Sevilla (33 councilors):

PSOE 33.2% (11-12), PP 31.3% (10-11), SSP* 14.6% (5-6), C's 11-9% (4), IU 4.6% (0-1)

* Sevilla Si Puede: Podemos+Ganemos Sevilla



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 20, 2015, 12:46:13 PM
Several polls have been released this weekend at national, regional and local levels.

General election: GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

Vote estimation: PP 23.5%, Podemos 20.1%, PSOE 19.1%, C's 17.7%, IU-ICV 3.7%, CiU 2.9%, ERC 1.9%, UPyD 1.4%, Others 9.1%

Projection of seats (Total: 350): PP 102-107, Podemos 78-82, PSOE 75-78, C's 55-59, CiU 10-12, ERC 6-8, IU-ICV 2-4, UPyD 1-2, Others 13-15

Regional elections:

Valencia: Metroscopia / El País

()

Local elections:

City of Valencia: Metroscopia / El País

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 24, 2015, 08:13:02 AM
Former Andalusian premier Manuel Chaves (PSOE) announced he will quit politics after this fall's autumn election, following a similar announcement made recently by his peer José Antonio Griñán. Both were called to testify before the Supreme Court earlier this month in connection with the ERE case, a major investigation into the misallocation of as much as €855 million in public funds meant for struggling businesses in Andalusia. While no formal charges have been filled against them, both were interrogated as imputados (a status similar to defendant, I'm not well versed in legal subtleties). After the March 22 regional election, the emerging Podemos and C's parties have been demanding the departure of Chaves and Griñán from politics as not negotiable condition to allow the investiture of Susana Díaz as regional premier.

Íñigo Errejón (Podemos) stated on Chaves' decision that "things are moving", although that's only a first and insufficient step, and attributed the move to the firmness shown by Podemos. "We have said always that it's needed firmness in compromises and the political will to correct what has been done bad and opening doors and windows in the institutions", said Podemos nº2.

Susana Díaz, on her part, stated that she will be elected premier soon. Sources in PSOE confirmed that socialists will accept a decalogue of actions against corruption demanded by the Ciudadanos party. People in the regional government assure that Susana Díaz is confident, given that the "deadlock" to her investiture provoked by the opposition of  PP, C's and Podemos is beginning to crack.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 02:50:16 AM
Another serving of regional polls.

Regional elections:

Navarre: CIES / Diario de Navarra

UPN 24.1% (14-15 seats), Geroa Bai 17.1% (9), Podemos 14.7% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 13.7% (7), PSOE 10.2% (5), PP 6.4% (3), C's 5.9% (3), IU 3.2% (0-1), Others 2.7% (-)

Total: 50 seats (26 needed for majority). Threshold: 3% (regional).

That result would make government formation extremely complicated. The ruling UPN (right-wing regionalist) would need 11 or 12 additional seats to get a majority, The investiture of the UPN candidate would be only possible if PP, PSOE and C's don't put obstacles and in the best of cases (UPN at 15 seats). An alternative government would lie in an alliance of Basque nationalists (Geroa Bai and EH Bildu) with Podemos and PSOE. It seems highly unlikely that socialists would engage in such agreement, given the precedents. In 2007 PSOE national executive disowned Navarrese socialists, whom made a deal with Nafarroa Bai (the forerunner of Geroa Bai) and IU to oust UPN from government.  

Canary Islands: Instituto Perfiles / regional papers

CC 18.5% (17 seats), PP 19.5% (13-15), PSOE 18.5% (13-15), Podemos 10.5% (6), C's 10.5% (5-7), NC 7.5% (3-5), UNIDOS 4.5% (-), ASG 0.5% (0-1), Others 10% (-)

Total: 60 seats (majority 31). Thresholds: 6% (regional) and 30% (insular).

Despite a loss of support, the Canary Coalition (centre-right regionalist) has many chances to stay in government. Nowadays there's a ruling CC-PSOE coalition government. Recently CC replaced premier Paulino Rivero in the party leadership by Fernando Clavijo, currently mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife). Clavijo is said to be prone to a CC-PP joint government (rumours say the deal is sealed). In case CC and PP wouldn't get togeher a majority, they would need the C's acquiescence. A deal between progressive forces (PSOE, Podemos, the centre-left New Canaries and incidentally the ASG) falls short from a majority in all cases. Of course other options are possible, for instance a deal between CC, PSOE and NC (or C's). The only way in which CC could be ousted from government is a deal between PP, PSOE and C's.

Extremadura: Metroscopia / El País

PP 37.4% (25), PSOE 31.8% (22), Podemos 13% ( 8 ), C's 10.5% (7), IU 5.4% (3), Others 1.9% (-)

Total: 65 seats (majority 33). Threshold: 5% (provincial).

Premier José Antonio Monago would win again in Extremadura, although PP would be 7 seats down. Monago is quite controversial and was involved in a scandal that goes back to his tenure as senator. In that period, Monago used to visit a girlfriend in Tenerife (Canaries); those pleasure trips were disguised as business ones and funded by the Senate. Recently, Mr Monago is running a campaign focused on himself with no PP logos, something that displeases Mariano Rajoy. The man has certain popularity in the region, but according to this poll his stay is in doubt. PSOE, Podemos and IU gather a majority by the narrowest of margins and could oust Monago. However, the IU regional branch is hostile to PSOE for a number of reasons and has been supporting Monago's government in Extremadura since 2011.

Valencia: My Word / Cadena SER

PP 26.5% (28-31), PSOE 19,7% (22-26), C's 18.1% (17-19), Podemos 13.8% (13-15), Compromís 10.8% (8-11), IU 5.3% (3-5), UPyD 1% (-), Others 4.8% (-)

Total: 99 seats (majority 50). Threshold: 5% (regional).

Total uncertainty. There are chances for PP to stay in government propped up by C's, but such deal is extremely complicated due to likely repercussions at national level. According to this poll, the C's spectacular surge is parallel to a remarkable Podemos decline (compared to previous surveys).

In the city of Valencia, My Word estimates the following result:

PP 26.4% (9-10 councilors), C's 19.1% (6-7), VEC 16.2% (5-6), Compromís 13.9% (4-5), PSOE 13.1% (4-5), IU 5.4% (1-2).

Total: 33 councilors (majority 17). Valencia en Comú (VEC) is the Podemos outfit in the city.






Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 27, 2015, 03:18:12 AM
Huh, I assumed that the Extramadura PP would be dead in the water, given the circumstances.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 04:06:40 AM
Huh, I assumed that the Extramadura PP would be dead in the water, given the circumstances.

Monago has apparently skills for surviving, politically speaking. Other previous polls predicted a better result for PP in Extremadura. In any case Monago is polling better in the region than PP for the general election.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 08:39:03 AM
MyWord poll for the general election released today. Worrying for Podemos: it falls from first to fourth place. The polling firm is ran by Belén Barreiro, a sociologist who was the head of the Center of Sociological Investigation (CIS) some years ago, during the Zapatero administration. Barreiro is a very smart woman and I think she's quite good in spotting trends. 

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on April 27, 2015, 10:21:39 AM
MyWord poll for the general election released today. Worrying for Podemos: it falls from first to fourth place. The polling firm is ran by Belén Barreiro, a sociologist who was the head of the Center of Sociological Investigation (CIS) some years ago, during the Zapatero administration. Barreiro is a very smart woman and I think she's quite good in spotting trends. 

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It's all still in the margin of error, though the decline is obvious in provincial polls as well. C's is confirmed as the flavor of the moment, inb4 they show up first in a national poll.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 11:49:25 AM
Vote estimation is in the margin of error, yeah. The key here is the trend different polls with different estimated percentages show. Belén Barreiro told in February, when Podemos was still polling first in the MyWord monthly survey, that Ciudadanos was already damaging Podemos. Barreiro predicted some years ago the surge of a "Radical Party" with some similarities with Podemos and C's. During the launch of a book about Podemos (Asaltar los Cielos by José Ignacio Torreblanca) Barreiro suggested that Podemos is past its prime, because "economy is recovering and people wants to look forward with optimism", remarking that Podemos message is more effective in the short than in the long term. However, she said the effect of new corruption scandals in public opinion is unpredictable and Podemos might find a new strategy to adapt to the situation. Torreblanca thesis is that Podemos is an "assumption of political change" emerged from the economic crisis, in which a part of the population impoverishes and then mobilises against corruption scandals, demanding a return of democracy and a political system that represents common people. Podemos emerged avoiding effectively the traditional concepts of "left" and "right" in political ideology, it's a "pragmatic and abstract concept" with a vague platform that promises solving social injustices and overthrowing elites.

In my opinion, Podemos has been mistaking since the beginning of the year. People demands solutions to the problems and Podemos would have done better in working out proposals, instead of sending out neat slogans. The race is still open, though.

http://www.ecfr.eu/events/event/presentacion_de_asaltar_los_cielos

Disclaimer: Change "Sociological Investigation" by "Sociological Research" in the previous post. False friend :P


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 28, 2015, 05:07:13 AM
For once, The Economist puts Mariano Rajoy and his heralded recovery in place.

"Spain's recovery: Not doing the job".

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21649660-spanish-unemployment-ticks-up-again-many-workers-are-sinking-poverty-not-doing-job?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/notdoingthejob


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 30, 2015, 02:27:29 PM
So could someone with knowledge in Spanish and Spanish politics explain this (!WARNING! this election poster might be deemed inappropriate by prude Americans!) (http://ep01.epimg.net/elpais/imagenes/2006/09/16/actualidad/1158394620_850215_0000000000_sumario_normal.jpg) to me.

I was browsing information about Ciudadanos when I came across it. What does it say? Is it really a real election poster, or a parody? 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 30, 2015, 02:46:16 PM
BREAKING: Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias announced this evening that Juan Carlos Monedero resigns from the Citizen's Council (the Podemos political bureau) "after complying his obligation as responsible of the (political) program". Monedero is Co-Founder of Podemos, ideologue and has been a key man in the party in which he will stay as member. Today morning, Monedero complained about the Podemos "mainstream drift":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/04/30/inenglish/1430403454_148415.html
Quote
(...) “Podemos is falling into these kinds of problems because it no longer has the time to meet with the small circles [the name with which the party refers to local-level supporters], because it is more important to get one minute of TV airtime or to do something that adds to the collective strategy,” the political science professor told an interviewer on internet-based broadcaster Radiocable.

But Monedero stressed that Podemos remains “the most decent [force] in Spanish politics.”

The party’s number-three man said that when a political party’s main goal is to “reach power,” it “joins the electoral game and starts becoming hostage to the worst aspects of the state.”

He called on the 15-month-old party to “go back to its origins,” in reference to its foundational spirit based on the so-called Indignados popular-protest movement.

Pablo Iglesias stated that he doesn't share some of Monedero's thoughts, but said that his friend is an intellectual who needs to "fly free" and Podemos will need his "sting" to galvanise the base. Both Iglesias and the party's number two Ïñigo Errejón thanked Monedero's "extensive job" and hoped to work "side by side" with him for that project for political change which excites "more and more people" every time.

Monedero was pointed by media months ago as a possible candidate for Mayor of Madrid. However, his figure began to decline as a result of his affair with the Treasury (featuring veiled menaces from minister Cristóbal Montoro):

Quote
Earlier this year, Monedero was involved in a scandal for failing to declare income of €425,000 that he allegedly made from advisory work for the governments of Venezuela and other Latin American nations. Eventually he had to pay the Spanish Tax Agency €200,000 in back taxes and fines.

At the time, Monedero described himself as the victim of “a witch-hunt” and aimed his criticism at Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro, whom he accused of trying to intimidate him with the tax inspection.

He also denied using the money as illegal funding for Podemos.

Juan Carlos Monedero was criticised by some people inside Podemos due to his delay in giving an explanation, and because when he did it wasn't fully satisfactory. However, the same people was indignant because Monedero's alleged wrongdoing was equated by rivals and media to big corruption scandals involving major parties.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 30, 2015, 02:47:54 PM
So could someone with knowledge in Spanish and Spanish politics explain this (!WARNING! this election poster might be deemed inappropriate by prude Americans!) (http://ep01.epimg.net/elpais/imagenes/2006/09/16/actualidad/1158394620_850215_0000000000_sumario_normal.jpg) to me.

I was browsing information about Ciudadanos when I came across it. What does it say? Is it really a real election poster, or a parody?  

With my limited Spanish I can tell you what it says, what precisely they are trying to convey is another thing

"Your Party has arrived" (Ha nacido = has been born)

"The only thing which matters to us are people" - Alberto Rivera, C's candidate for the Catalan parliament

"We don't care where you were born
We don't care what language you speak
We don't care what clothes you wear
We care about you"


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 30, 2015, 02:53:55 PM
Well, Gully replied already.

It's a real poster from the 2006 campaign in Catalonia. It was the first time C's was running in a regional election and that affiche was an immediate sensation. It was intended to transmite the message of a new born force: clean, transparent and with nothing to hide. C's leader Albert Rivera was a swimming champion and he's undeniably good-looking. Everything counts to sell the product: political marketing.

C's was successful in getting into the Parliament of Catalonia winning 3 seats.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 01, 2015, 01:06:33 PM
Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias hopes that the departure of Juan Carlos Monedero won't cost them votes:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/01/inenglish/1430479804_346180.html

Quote
The leader of Podemos, Spain’s self-styled anti-corruption party, trusts that the resignation of one of its co-founders will not affect their chances of success at upcoming local and regional elections.

“We will keep working to win,” said Pablo Iglesias, speaking in Madrid on Friday at a protest that coincided with the May Day holiday (...)

Podemos is facing its first internal crisis with the resignation of Juan Carlos Monedero, who was one of the party’s leaders, on Thursday.

After the announcement, Iglesias sent party followers a letter explaining some of the circumstances of Monedero’s resignation.

“We had been discussing for months the hardship he was going through due to his position in Podemos’ leadership,” he wrote. “Change requires many people playing very different roles, and Juan Carlos and I concluded long ago that he is not a party man, and that his place is where it always was: as a moral and intellectual point of reference for those who dream of a more fair society.”

Before walking out, Monedero accused Podemos of starting to resemble the established parties that it criticizes so much, and called for a return to its origins.

Monedero said that he would rather break free from the party chains.

“I feel like getting my own voice back, rather than remaining a cog in the party’s wheels,” he said.

But despite his disagreement with the direction the party is taking, Monedero said he will stay with Podemos at street level. In a letter published on his blog, he stated that “Pablo is, besides a beautiful part of my biography, the secretary general of the party with which I will keep on fighting (...)

According to El País, several European governments show interest for the policies of the new rising star, that is to say, Albert Rivera and Ciudadanos. Representatives from various embassies requested meetings with party members in order to know their ideology. Employees of the Italian embassy already attended dinners to meet C's members; the newspaper says that diplomats, communication managers and lobbyists took advantage of those events to ask questions. After the presentation of the C's economic platform (drawn by economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe) which cleared the party stances on fiscal and financial issues, questions focused on foreign policy. On economic policy Ciudadanos claims an advocacy for a "Danish model", in opposition to the "Venezuelan model" apparently supported by Podemos. Actually, the policies proposed by C's are similar to those of Denmark on issues like employment flexibility, but without the large employment benefits usual in that country. As well they advocate for a lower tax burden for high incomes: the maximum they are proposing is 40%, opposed to the current 48% in Spain and the 60% into force for Denmark. Also, they propose creating a network of technologic institutes and professional training schools similar to that existing in Germany but, honestly, I don't know if that's viable with the fiscal policy they stand for. One of the C's most controversial stances is their proposal for legalising prostitution. Another controversial stance is that they say giving healthcare benefits for irregular immigrants is "unsustainable".  

Ciudadanos made public few days ago the party position on post-election agreements. Basically, they are open to have conversations with all parties and to dicuss concrete measures. In case they don't win in a region or municipality, in neither case they will join a coalition government which could damage C's chances in the general election. They are open to allow the investiture of minority governments on the basis of negotiating key issues for them, such as anti-corruption measures and electoral reform (among others).

Are you ready for "Naranjito"?

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 01, 2015, 02:52:19 PM
Orange fever!

Ciudadanos and PSOE are tied in Madrid, according to a Metroscopia poll which will be released in detail tomorrow by El País

()

Three-cornered contest between PSOE, C's and Podemos for the second place in the regional election. The Podemos outfit Ahora Madrid places second in the Madrid mayoral race, while PSOE and C's are tied in third place. In all cases, the orange party holds the balance of power.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 01, 2015, 03:33:46 PM
Metroscopia seems to typically over poll the insurgent parties (or else the other pollsters understate them) from what I've seen.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 02, 2015, 03:52:18 AM
Graphs are cool, so there is the Metroscopia poll in detail.

Madrid Regional Assembly: Vote share and seats

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Regional candidates: evaluative balance and level of knowledge.

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Direct voting intention.

()

With regard to vote as remembered in 2011, transfers would be:

PP: PP 51.2%, C's 18.3%, PSOE 1.8%, Podemos 1.6%, IU 0.3%, UPyD 0.3%

PSOE: PSOE 37.6%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 5.8%, IU 2%, PP 0.3%

IU: Podemos 47.6%, IU 22.6%, PSOE 10.4%, C's 2.8%

Madrid City Council: Vote share and seats.

()

Mayoral candidates: evaluative balance and level of knowledge

()

Direct voting intention

()

With regard to vote as remembered in 2011, transfers would be:

PP: PP 62.1%, C's 15.7%, PSOE 2.5%, AM 1.5%

PSOE: PSOE 38.6%, AM 29.5%, C's 7.6%, IU 1.5%

IU: AM 56.9%, IU 20.7%, PSOE 8.6%, C's 1.7%

Ahora Madrid= Podemos + Ganemos Madrid + Equo + part of IU Madrid

Metroscopia seems to typically over poll the insurgent parties (or else the other pollsters understate them) from what I've seen.

It can be true either way. MyWord tends over poll insurgent parties even more, I guess it's due to a particular methodology. MyWord polls are online, something unusual in Spain, while Metroscopia resorts to phone calls. In any case, we had a recent regional election in Andalusia and we can compare the deviation between polls and the actual result. As for Metroscopia, they estimated  the following (in brackets, difference with the election result):

PSOE 36.7% (+1.3%), PP 25.1% (-1.7%), Podemos 14.7% (-0.1%), C's 11% (+1.7%), IU 8.5% (+1.6%)

The average polling, that is to say the "poll of polls", almost nailed the result of that election.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 02, 2015, 01:04:31 PM
The Economist again. In the wake of the temporary arrest of Rodrigo Rato two weeks ago, an op-ed raises alarm about the "government cronyism" which "may cripple Spain's economy"

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21650176-research-suggests-government-cronyism-may-cripple-spains-economy-inside-jobs?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/insidejobs

Quote
SPANIARDS are used to former public officials getting rich from doing business with the state. When news emerged of investigations into a former official in Castile and León who had secured lucrative wind-farm licences from his ex-colleagues and a former official in Andalusia whose companies netted regional contracts for state-subsidised worker-training courses, few were surprised. Corruption and cronyism (the distribution of political favours to businesses) explain much of the Spanish public’s growing disdain for the two parties that have run the country for the past 32 years: the ruling Popular Party (PP) and the opposition Socialists (PSOE).

Distrust reached a nadir with the temporary arrest two weeks ago of Rodrigo Rato, a former PP finance minister who went on to run the IMF in Washington. Police searched Mr Rato’s office and home in an investigation into unexplained income. He was already under scrutiny over freewheeling use of company credit cards during his chairmanship of Bankia, a bank that needed a €22 billion ($27 billion) rescue under his stewardship. Mr Rato was seen as one of the architects of Spain’s economic miracle in the early 2000s. That miracle now seems a distant memory. Unemployment is running at 23%, and the IMF says it will take nine years, until 2017, to return the economy to its pre-crisis size.

On a side note, the very serious papers and opinion makers worldwide elevated Mr Rato to the altars consecrating him as the craftsman of the "Spanish Miracle"; international prestige gained in that way could have helped him to become in the IMF head. As it was proven later (real estate bubble), such 'miracle' had a feet of clay. Until recently and still now, many conservative opinion makers say that Rato was the best Minister of Economy that Spain ever had.

The article mentions some research on the effects of the so-called "crony capitalism" in the Spanish economy:

Quote
Researchers are beginning to see links between Spain’s excessively cronyistic and corrupt public administration, and the defects that have made it so hard for the economy to recover. The problems may have started well before the crash. From 1995 to 2007, while the Spanish economy was growing at 3.5% per year, productivity declined by 0.7% per year—even as overall EU productivity was growing at an average of 0.4% per year.

Blame has traditionally been pinned on a housing bubble that fostered distorted growth in the construction industry. But a recent paper by a team headed by Manuel García-Santana of the Université Libre de Bruxelles finds that the productivity fall was spread more evenly across all sectors. It had little to do with skills, innovation or debt. “We found that bad [less productive] companies grew faster than the good ones,” says one of the co-authors, Enrique Moral-Benito. Productivity falls were greater when the government was heavily involved, through contracts, licences or regulations. Luis Garicano, the economics adviser of the liberal Ciudadanos party, says this points to an economy dependent on contacts, corruption and cronyism (...)

In the last sentence you can check that The Economist seems to be turning from the blue to the orange party.

Quote
Popular anger over cronyism helps to explain why the PP government and its prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, seem likely to take a hammering in elections to regional governments and municipalities on May 24th. Over the past year 500,000 jobs have been created and growth is forecast at 2.9% this year, yet the PP has shed half its support. The Socialists are also low in the polls, while Ciudadanos and the left-wing Podemos party have risen. The elections are now a four-way race. A poor result on May 24th could even force Mr Rajoy to bring forward a general election due at the end of the year (...)

Cronyism in public administration and links between corrupt politicians and corrupting businessmen are not the only reasons to explain popular anger. This factor was existing before. The usual factor which political analysts mention to explain why people is angry now at corruption and cronyism is the impoverishment of the middle class, which is the effect of crisis and austerity and is the cause behind the surge of forces like Podemos. However, the continuous succession of scandals has ended creating outrage among the more advantaged sectors. Note that in the present context, what was considered a middle class standard of living years ago can be seen as a high standard nowadays. 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 02, 2015, 03:22:24 PM
Another Madrid poll to compare results with Metroscopia.

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 33.7% (48 seats), PSOE 22.6% (32), Podemos 18,6% (26), C's 16.1% (23), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 1.4% (-), Others 3.5%

Madrid City Council: PP 36.1% (24 councilors), PSOE 18.5% (12), AM 17.3% (11), C's 15.5% (10), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.9% (-), Others 6.4%

And another for the Catalan elections.

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Parliament of Catalonia: CiU 35-36 seats, ERC 26-27, C's 26, PSC 12-13, CUP 10-11, PP 9, ICV 8, Podemos 6-8.

I didn't found vote percentages, but maybe the newspaper will release them tommorrow. With that seat estimation and given malapportionment, I'd bet that C's is the second party in vote intention. Podemos is surprisingly low, but maybe the next poll released by El Periódico will give different results.

The poll asks about the independence of Catalonia: "Yes" is at 43.7% and "No" at 47.9%; the same pollster said in December that "Yes" was at 47.2% and "No" at 42.9%.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/20150502/54430353735/grafico-el-sondeo-punto-por-punto.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 05, 2015, 09:23:20 AM
Feedback / La Vanguardia

Parliament of Catalonia: CiU 35-36 seats, ERC 26-27, C's 26, PSC 12-13, CUP 10-11, PP 9, ICV 8, Podemos 6-8.

Vote estimation: CiU 22.6%, C's 19.1%, ERC 16.6%, PSC 9.9%, CUP 7.9%, PP 6.6%, ICV-EUiA 6.6%, Podemos 6.3%

More regional polls

Valencia: Sigma Dos / Las Provincias

PP 29.7% (33 seats), PSOE 18.4% (19-22), C's 16.1% (17), Podemos 14.8% (15-16), Compromís 12.2% (12-14), EUPV (IU) 3.6% (-), UPyD 1%, Others 4.2%

Coincidence or not, PP and C's reach 50 seats together in the seat estimation while PSOE + Podemos + Compromís would be at 49. Still an open race.

City of Valencia (33 councilors): PP 29.2% (11 councilors), C's 19.4% (7), PSOE 14.6% (5), Podemos+ Gunayem Valencia 12.2% (4), Compromís 11.6% (4), IU 7.6% (2)

Balearic Islands: Sigma Dos / El Mundo

Seat estimation (Total 59): PP 22-25, PSOE 12-14, Podemos 8-11, Més 6, C's 4-5, Gent (Formentera) 1, IU 0-1.

Only in the best of cases PP (25) and C's (5) would get a majority. Otherwise there are precedents in the islands of "all united against PP" coalitions. In this case: PSOE, Podemos, the "eco-nationalist" MÉS, the Formentera party and IU.

Extremadura: Enquest / El Periódico de Extremadura

PP 41% (29-30 seats), PSOE 30.7% (21-22), Podemos 12.1% (7-8), C's 9.9% (6), IU 4.2% (0-2)

Good news for Monago :P  The weigh of rural population in the region as a whole explains the relatively small impact of insurgent parties (the purple and the orange).

Electograph "poll of polls" for the race in Madrid:

Regional Assembly

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Madrid City Council

()


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 06, 2015, 08:44:10 AM
After months of uncertainty and fear, an avalanche of noisy information in media and the unannounced surge of a clean-shaved version of PP, Pablo Iglesias is showing signs of leaving defensive tactics and going on the attack:

http://blogs.publico.es/pablo-iglesias/1025/guerra-de-trincheras-y-estrategia-electoral/

And at last, Podemos has a platform to confront the next regional and local elections:

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-programa-resumido-claves_0_384612377.html

Other informative focus are:

a) Andalusia: will C's and Podemos abstain in the second vote and allow Susana Díaz to govern?

http://www.infolibre.es/noticias/politica/2015/05/06/cuales_son_las_opciones_susana_diaz_para_gobernar_andalucia_32323_1012.html

b) Valencia: the endless saga of corruption scandals involving regional PP continues. This time the star is provincial boss Alfonso Rus.

http://www.elmundo.es/comunidad-valenciana/2015/05/06/554954bf268e3e93558b457d.html

c) El Diario is publishing a serialized history on PP's past illegal financing, stretching back to Aznar and Hernández Mancha eras.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Naseiro-registro-pruebas-Aznar-mandaba_0_384611872.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015 (CIS May survey)
Post by: Velasco on May 07, 2015, 09:45:00 AM
CIS May survey: General election.

()

Sample: 2,479 (face to face). Margin of error: 2%. Fieldwork: April 1-12

Direct vote intention: PSOE 15.4%, Podemos 13.6%, PP 13.5%, C's 10%, IU-ICV 3.1%, ERC 1.5%, CiU 1.4%, UPyD 0.8%, PNV 0.6%

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/05/07/201be29fb5a7216abc54a904a3371e11.pdf

PP retains the first place losing 19% with regard the 2011 election. PSOE recovers the second place, trailing conservatives by only 1.3%. Podemos falls to third place and C's raises form 3.1% in Jan to 13.8% in May.

CIS / Regional elections.

Madrid (129 seats): PP 34.7% (48-49), PSOE 20% (27-28), Podemos 17.3% (24), C's 16.3% (22-23), IU 5.4% (7), UPyD 2.5% (-) Sample: 1512

Valencia (99 seats): PP 30.4% (33-35), PSOE 19.9% (22-23), Podemos 16.5% (19), C's 15.3% (16), Compromís 8.1% (7-8), EUPV (IU) 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.5% (-) Sample: 1955

Extremadura (65 seats): PSOE 38.9% (26-28), PP 34.6% (24-26), Podemos 11.6% ( 8 ), C's 6.9% (4), IU 4.1% (0-2), UPyD 0.7% Sample: 1199

Murcia (45 seats): PP 41% (21-22), PSOE 24.9% (11-12), C's 13.8% (6), Podemos 10.4% (6), IU+allies 5% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-) Sample: 1492

Aragon (67 seats): PP 29.7% (23-24), PSOE 22.4% (17), Podemos 14.1% (9), C's 12.9% (8-9), PAR 5.7% (4), IU 5.4% (3), CHA 5% (2) Sample: 1586

PAR= Aragonese Party (centre-right regionalist). CHA= Aragonese Union (centre-left regionalist)

Castilla y León (84 seats): PP 40.9% (43-44), PSOE 22.9% (20-21), C's 11.1% (9), Podemos 10.3% (8-10), IU 3.8% (1), UPL 1.8% (1), UPyD 2% (-) Sample: 2989

UPL= Leonese People's Union

Castilla-La Mancha (33 seats): PSOE 35.1% (13), PP 34.9% (14-15), C's 12% (3-4), Podemos 9,9% (2) Sample: 1961

Asturias (45 seats): PSOE 25.5% (13), Podemos 21.4% (10), PP 19.9% (11), FAC 10.6% (5), C's 10.6% (4), IU 6.7% (2), UPyD 2.2% (-) Sample: 1198

FAC = Foro Asturias. PP splinter, right-wing regionalist.

Canary Islands (60 seats): PP 20.8% (12-14), PSOE 20.4% (15-16), CC 18.9% (17), Podemos 15.8% (10), C's 10.7% (4-5), NC 5.2% (-), Canarias Decide  4.1% (-) Sample: 1723

NC= New Canaries, centre-left regionalist. Canarias Decide= IU +a bunch of small parties.

Cantabria (35 seats): PP 33.2% (13-14), PRC 22.4% (8-9), PSOE 16.3% (6), C's 10.3% (4), Podemos 9.5% (3), IU 3% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-) Sample: 799

PRC= Cantabria regionalist

La Rioja (33 sets): PP 38.7% (15-16), PSOE 22.3% (8-9), C's 13.1% (5), Podemos 11.6% (4), Regionalist 4.6% (-), IU-Equo 4.2% (-), UPyD 1.7% (-)  Sample: 774

Navarre (50 seats): UPN 20.8% (11-12), Podemos 19.9% (11), EH Bildu 12.5% (7), PSOE 11.2% (6), Geroa Bai 10% (5), C's 8.7% (4-5), PP 6.7% (3), IU 5.1% (2) Sample: 789

Balearic Islands (59 seats): PP 30% (19-20), PSOE 22.3% (14-15), Podemos 14.5% (10), C's 12.4% (9), MÉS 9,6% (5), Gent 0.4% (1), PI 2.4% (-), IU 2.1% (-) Sample 1199

MÉS: Més per Mallorca. Catalan nationalist, left-wing, ecologist. PI= Proposta per les Illes, centre-right regionalist. Gent: Formentera party, left leaning

Ceuta (autonomous city, 25 councilors): PP 49.5% (14), PSOE 22.6%% (6), Caballas 11.2% (3), C's 6.8% (2), UPyD 2% (-), IU 1.4% (-)  Sample: 300

Caballas is a left-leaning local party associated with Equo. In the EP elections endorsed the European Spring list (Compromís, Equo, CHA and others)

Melilla (autonomous city, 25 councilors): PP 36.8% (10-11), PSOE 21.2% (6), CpM 14.3% (4), Podemos 9.3% (3), C's 6.8% (1-2), PPL 5.8% (1), UPyD 3% (-), IU 1.4% (-).

CpM (Coalition for Melilla) is a left-leaning local party representing the Muslim community. PPL (Populares en Libertad) is a PP splinter which endorsed the Vox Party in the EP elections.

CIS / Municipal elections.

Madrid (57 councilors): PP 34.5% (22-23), AM 20.8% (13-14), PSOE 18.8% (12), C's 14.9% (9-10), IU 4.2% (-), UPyD 3.2% (-) Sample: 927. AM= Ahora Madrid (Podemos, Ganemos Madrid, Equo, IU Madrid dissidents)

Barcelona ( 41 councilors): BEC 25.9% (11), CiU 18.5% ( 8 ), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 11.6% (5), ERC 10.1% (4), PP 9.1% (4), CUP 7.1% (3) Sample: 993. BEC= Barcelona en Comú (Guanyem, ICV-EUIA, Podemos)

Valencia (33 councilors): PP 35.7% (13), PSOE 15.9% (6), C's 14.4% (5), VEC 13.2% (5), Compromís 10.4% (4), IU 4.5% (-), UPyD 2.1% (-) Sample: 710 VEC= Valencia en Comú (Podemos and allies)

Seville (31 councilors): PP 32.4% (11-12), PSOE 28.5% (10), SSP 13.4% (4-5), C's 12.6% (4), IU 5% (1), UPyD 1% (-) Sample: 997  Initially SSP= Sevilla Si Puede (Podemos and allies). Right now there are two "popular unity" lists that will split the vote: Participa Sevilla and Ganemos Sevilla

Zaragoza (31 councilors): PP 27.3% (10-11), ZEC 21.8% (7-8), PSOE 20% (7), C's 14.4% (5), CHA 7.1% (2), PAR 4.4% (-), UPyD 2% (-) Sample: 741 ZEC= Zaragoza en Común (Podemos, IU and others)

Vitoria-Gasteiz (29 councilors): PP 25.9% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 17.8% (5), PNV 17.7% (5), PSE-PSOE 12.8% (4), Irabazi 11.4% (3), Hemen-Gaude 6.4% (2), C's 3.3% (-) Sample: 499.

Irabazi ("Let's Win")= IU, Equo, Ganemos Gasteiz. Hemen-Gaude ("Here We Are"): Podemos

Santiago de Compostela (27 councilors): PP 33.4% (9-10), PSOE 23.2% (6-7), Compostela Aberta 19.8% (5), BNG 8.6% (2), C's 7.9% (2) Sample: 499

Compostela Aberta: "popular unity candidacy" including AGE (Anova-IU) and Podemos.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/07/actualidad/1431002822_141573.html

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/CIS-pronostica-PP-salvaria-Ciudadanos_0_385311795.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 08, 2015, 06:07:58 AM
Analysis of CIS raw data in El Diario by various authors.

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/dice-nuevo-barometro-CIS_6_385721435.html

Some conclusions:

1) PSOE has found an "ally" in C's because the surge of Albert Rivera boys has made political competition more ideologized, as well has blurred polarisation between PP and Podemos. C's has contributed to tarnish Podemos' image, putting the focus on the contradictions in the Pablo Iglesias party and replacing it as the last one to arrive: being the "newest sensation" or the "flavor of the month" is a plus in the present context. Socialists have recovered part of their disenchanted voters from Podemos, while their loses to C's are relatively small.

Vote transfers in PSOE voting base, attending to "vote as remembered in 2011" figure. Data from the CIS May survey (Jan survey in brackets):

PSOE 52.2% (38.7%), Podemos 15.5% (26.1%), C's 4.5% (0.9%), IU 1.5% (1.1%), Undecided/Don't know 18.1% (22%), wouldn't vote 4.5% (6.3%), Others 3.7% (4%)

On the other hand, C's is both a serious rival and a potential ally for PP. The orange party is uncomfortable for PP because it makes difficult for the conservative party to recover disillusioned and angry voters. Additionally, Mariano Rajoy's party has lost the battle among the young and certain urban middle class. C's is feeding primarily by former PP and UPyD voters and "orphan" voters which voted "blank" or "null" in 2011.

Vote transfers in PP's voting base, etcetera:

PP 48.8% (50.3%), C's 17.7% (3.7%), Podemos 4% (7.3%), PSOE 3.3% (4.5%), IU 0.5% (0.7%), UPyD 0.2% (1.7%), Undecided/Don't know 16.7% (17.9%), wouldn't vote 6% (8.7%), Others 2.8% (5%)

2) Ciudadanos and Podemos have some similarities, but the base of their support is different. Podemos has lost some cross-party appeal due to the surge of C's, but their support is still "transversal" stretching from the far-left to the centre-right. Podemos, however, has lost voters in all segments more due to a loss of image (they are no longer the only representatives of the "new poltics") than to ideological reasons (either for being too "moderate" or "too leftist"). C's has reshaped transfers of disillusioned voters from the traditional parties. In the end, C's has damaged Podemos by stealing them the image of "freshness" and "novelty" and not so much because of making Podemos to appear more radical.

Being their formulas for success different, Podemos and C's face different challenges. The main danger for C's is being labelled as a (classic) party in the right. Voters placed them more to the right in May than they made in January: they score now 5.77 (up from 5.14) in a 1-10 ideological scale, where 1 is the extreme far-left and the 10 far-right.

Party appeal on the ideological axis:

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Key: X= position on the ideological scale. Y= average propensity to vote the party.  PP blue, PSOE red, Podemos purple, C's orange.

3) The CIS survey calls into question the narrative in past weeks: Podemos is losing support because former moderate socialists voters switched to C's. Unlike a previous poll conducted by GESOP, the CIS doesn't detect "connecting vessels" of relevance between Podemos and C's, because the latter is not growing at the expense of PSOE (at least not in great numbers). CIS seems to confirm that C's is the "Podemos of the Right".

4) Podemos losses ground in "old middle classes" and "skilled workers" socioeconomic groups. However, Podemos retains support among the "upper and middle-upper class" and "unskilled workers" categories. C's is growing primarily in the "upper and middle-upper class" and the "new middle class" segments.

5) Podemos and C's approach each other in territorial implementation. Podemos has lost more support in small towns than in populous centres, while C's is progressing in small and middle-sized towns.

6) Public perception on the economic situation is more positive, but optimism seems to be associated with a perception that party system is not going to be the same. In short, people has hope in a new time in politics.

7) Gender gap. C's is the most 'masculine' party (62 women for every 100 men), while PSOE is the more 'feminine'. There's a large proportion of women among undecided voters (more than 150 for every 100 men).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Zanas on May 09, 2015, 04:26:51 AM
In Barcelona, could you tell me what the main discrepancies between Barcelona en Comú and the CUP are ? I guess the CUP haven't changed their stance about not wanting to support any governing coalition whatsoever ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 09, 2015, 05:15:26 AM
In Barcelona, could you tell me what the main discrepancies between Barcelona en Comú and the CUP are ? I guess the CUP haven't changed their stance about not wanting to support any governing coalition whatsoever ?

Basically it's that Guanyem, ICV and Podemos are not enough pro-independence. Those organisations have supporters of Catalan independence in their ranks (as well people opposed, federalists, etc), but the 'process' is not a priority in the BEC platform. However, in the neighbouring Badalona Podemos and the CUP are running in the same list. Alliances and "popular unity" lists vary in each municipality, in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain. It's a mess.


Title: Re: Spanish regional and local elections (May 24 2015)
Post by: Velasco on May 10, 2015, 06:29:43 AM
The campaign started on Friday. Regional and local elections are set on Sunday May 24. In the pic below, C's candidate for Mayor of Barcelona Carina Mejías and national leader Albert Rivera in the campaign's opening act.

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The "centrality of the board"* is at stake for Ciudadanos, says El Diario. The Albert Rivera party has the continuity of several PP regional premiers in its hands. According to the CIS macro survey released this week, premiers Maria Dolores de Cospedal (Castilla-La Mancha), Luisa Fernanda Rudi (Aragon) and Alberto Fabra (Valencia) will depend on the orange party to stay in power. As well candidates Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre, whom seek to be Madrid premier and Mayor of Madrid respectively, will need the acquiescence of Ciudadanos to govern. However, everything points that C's will be extremely cautious, trying to avoid supporting PP governments in a systematic manner. The C's candidate for Mayor of Granada Luis Salvador told to the on-line paper that C's will do what they think is "in the best interest for citizens". Orange people repeat constantly that they are going to change the very nature of governance, but they don't give further details defining what this "new style" means. Calculated ambiguity responds to the wish of not compromising C's chances in the next autumn's general election. If they become in a sort of preferential ally for PP, many people would wonder what's the difference between casting a vote for the blue and the orange party.

A PSOE official thinks that it's impossible to know how far C's will go in maneuvering. They will do what they consider the best for them and not the best for citizens, says the socialist. PSOE resents the delay in the investiture of incumbent premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia, caused by the "lock" imposed by PP, Podemos and C's. Days ago, it seemed that PSOE and C's had reach an agreement and socialists seemed prone to sign the anti-corruption measures proposed by the oranges. Now it's clear that the governance in the most populous Spanish region won't be unlocked until the May 24 elections have passed. PP, on the other hand, tries to counterattack C's mentioning to the inexperience of orange candidates. C's could be more of a problem than a godsend, think people in Rajoy's entourage. Esperanza Aguirre, who despises the Spanish PM even tough she was appointed candidate by him, is making constantly nods to Ciudadanos.

In other news, a Metroscopia poll released yesterday by El País predicts an excellent result forthe orange party in Castilla-La Mancha. Take it with some grains of salt, keeping in mind that the pollster and El País strike as Rivera friendly.

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Pablo Iglesias was yesterday in Barcelona supporting Ada Colau (Barcelona en Comú), the best placed mayoral candidate according to CIS survey. They held a rally in Nou Barris, the poorest of Barcelona's municipal districts, as well a place where thousands of people have been evicted from their homes and a traditional stronghold of the Catalan socialists (PSC). Ada represents "a big deal of hope for Barcelona and the whole country", said the Podemos leader. Iglesias charged against PP, portraying the ruling party as a bunch of thieves and corrupts. "We don't want to be like them, we are not willing to be". Iglesias told the audience that he's a "patriot" and a "sovereignist", but stressing that his concept of patriotism and sovereignty is that hospitals work... as opposed to Rodrigo Rato (PP) and Jordi Pujol (CiU), whose patriotism lies on Swiss bank accounts.  

* The "centrality of the board" is an expression popularized by Ïñigo Errejón (Podemos).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 10, 2015, 05:01:25 PM
Wow, the Metroscopia poll for Aragon is shocking. Perhaps it's not the most reliable pollster (unless election results say otherwise), but it's amongst the most entertaining. Basically, the poll portrays a three-cornered contest between PP, PSOE and Podemos with C's coming in a strong fourth. Regionalists would be nearly annihilated, if the estimation comes close to the result two weeks from now.

 
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Evaluative balance and level of knowledge of the different candidates:

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Podemos candidate Pablo Echenique (born in Rosario, Argentina, in 1978) is one of the most popular figures of the emerging party. He is a scientist employed in the CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) and was elected MEP in the May 2014 elections. Afterwards, Echenique led the faction opposed to the organisational model advocated by Pablo Iglesias in the October founding convention, although neither him nor other critics have challenged or questioned Iglesias' leadership. Interviewed by El País, Pablo Echenique states that Podemos is not competing against C's, because they hunt in different fishing grounds. Echenique doesn't discard alliances with the rest of parties to oust PP from regional government, providing that they are willing to assume "a change of direction" in policies.

GESOP poll for the city of Barcelona:

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Councilors: CiU 10-11, BEC 8-9, PSC 6-7, PP 5-6, C's 5-6, ERC 4-5, CUP 0-2.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 14, 2015, 07:43:42 AM
Juan Carlos Monedero warned yesterday in an interview released by El País that "moderation could disarm Podemos":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/14/inenglish/1431597082_344157.html

Quote
(...)the associate professor of politics says his departure was caused by a growing ideological rift with party leader Pablo Iglesias, whom he sees as drifting to the center of the political spectrum in order to win votes ahead of municipal and regional elections on May 24.

Despite the quote above says, I'm not sure if Monedero's criticism is directed at Pablo Iglesias or rather to other ideological adversaries in Podemos, namely Íñigo Errejón and Carolina Becansa.

Quote
Q. When you left, you said that being in the circles [Podemos’ grassroot-level deliberation structures] was more important than being on television...

A. We realized that television is like the train that the Germans put Lenin in to go to Finland. Dammit, but after that you need to get off the train and meet with people!

Q. Could that happen to Iglesias, to remain caught inside the train?

A. He has an advantage: his thirst for power is very compensated by his thirst for knowledge. That represents a grassroots connection.

Q. You were the party’s radical voice. Now you’re not there any more.

A. I am much more useful outside the leadership, because leaderships are bodies of associated members where plurality tends to disappear. I cannot walk into the executive organ with a book of mine, have them tear off a lot of pages, then have them return it to me with the claim that this is what I wrote.

Q. You are no longer part of the leadership. How will you fit into Podemos?

A. It is a Zapatista premise: every person has to lead by obeying, and that is what Podemos needs to do. It needs to listen to its supporters, because they are the ones in charge. I have the ability to go back to being the agitator that I once was.

Q. You will be an uncomfortable figure.

A. Or maybe not. Maybe it will be uncomfortable for some people within Podemos, but not for Podemos itself.

Q. Do you enjoy making others uncomfortable?

A. Tremendously. In Curso urgente de política para gente decente [or Crash course in politics for decent people] I say that ideas should be like tossing a hornet’s nest into a confessional. Our freshness was the opposite of gutter politics, and if Pablo was able to garner the kind of support he did, it was because he broke the chains.

Q. Could [Podemos] fall into that?

A. I said it in the Ramón Lobo book: we need to be very careful, the fight does not end by making yourself resemble those you are fighting. My idea is for my exit to become a reality check to make our organization think about what we are doing. If we lose this window of opportunity, it will be terrible: we would be betraying a lot of people who believed that we represented change.

According to El Diario, Podemos assumes that the surge of Ciudadanos will alter the balance of power. Podemos keeps the campaign design drawn by Errejón and Bescansa, although introducing slight modifications. Pablo Iglesias will attend 8 campaign acts in the regions where Podemos has best chances: Madrid, Valencia, Aragon and Asturias. Five of them will take place in Madrid, including the close of the campaign. Podemos keeps the "transversal" message that emphasizes the "up and down" dichotomy, the social majority suffering the effects of crisis and austerity as opposed to the minority benefited from PP's policies. Pablo Iglesias has been charging towards Esperanza Aguirre, the PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid, calling her "corrupt" and "shower" with mentions to her aristocratic condition (the "blue blood countess"). Podemos still considers PP as the rival to beat, but now is forced to take C's into account. From the initial disdain Iglesias is beginning to criticise some Albert Rivera's "wisecracks", such as the idea that only persons born in the democratic period can play a protagonic role in the "regeneration" of democracy. For Iglesias, who was coupled by the elder Manuela Carmena (an independent proposed by Podemos as candidate for Mayor of Madrid), Rivera's statement was just "stupid".

Btw, Íñigo Errejón will be attending a campaign act in my town this evening. I'll try to go, since the man is interesting.

As for Ciudadanos, there's an interesting article comparing Albert Rivera and his party with Pavel Nikolayevich Miliukov and the Kadets. According to that, Ciudadanos abuses of tacticism and lacks of a coherent national project and strategy. C's worships ambiguity and runs the risk of running in some regions as a right-wing party and in others as a left-wing party,  says the author. It concludes saying that alliance policies are determinant in politics and in the following months the future of Ciudadanos will be at stake. If C's fails there won't be another opportunity and Rivera will share the fate of hapless Miliukov.

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/mientras-tanto/2015-05-10/el-error-de-albert-rivera-y-el-fracaso-de-los-kadetes_791488/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: FredLindq on May 15, 2015, 03:53:26 AM
I can see PSOE working with Citudanos and even Podemos. But were PP gets the most seats, might they all work togheter? Or will it be PP and C or even PP and PSOE?  What are your thoughts?!


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 15, 2015, 07:00:12 AM
I can see PSOE working with Citudanos and even Podemos. But were PP gets the most seats, might they all work togheter? Or will it be PP and C or even PP and PSOE?  What are your thoughts?!

The problem is that nobody knows. PSOE has stated willingness to cooperate with all parties except PP and EH Bildu; regional branches have leeway to negotiate alliances with the rest of forces. The reason for those exceptions is that alliances with the conservative party would be suicidal for PSOE (Podemos could take advantage of 'Grand Coalitions'), as well any kind of cooperation with the left-wing Basque separatist EH Bildu would damage socialists (PP or C's could blame PSOE for dealing with the "heirs of ETA") in Navarre and the Basque Country municipalities. Thus, PP-PSOE coalitions or agreements seem to be discarded. PSOE would like to cooperate with C's. However the orange party is placing harsh conditions for the investiture of Susana Díaz as regional premier in Andalusia. The regional branch has shown signals of willingness to reach an agreement with Andalusian socialists, but Albert Rivera is the man who has the last word in the party. Nothing will be decided until the 24 May elections have passed and right now the possibility of a new election in Andalusia is open. Also, it's hard to know at this moment if C's will allow PP to govern in Madrid, Valencia and other regions where polls say that possibility is in the hands of the Albert Rivera party. Rivera will take special care in not damaging the image of his party until the general election (both PP and PSOE have bad image, so in neither case C's will join coalition governments with them). The problem for C's is that any course of action will have consequences, either reaching agreements with PP, PSOE or both or not compromising at all. As said in the previous post, there are voices already criticising the Albert Rivera's "ambiguity" and "tacticism".

The relationship between PSOE and Podemos is complicated, to say the least. Both parties are competing for the centre-left sector of the electorate. Also, socialists resent that Podemos people refer them as a part of the establishment ("la casta"), as well they don't like the "arrogance" of Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders. However, PSOE territorial leaders (the "barons") have resigned themselves to the idea that they will need Podemos to govern in some regions. The Podemos regional branches will sell their support at a high price and they are not free of internal tension. After the Andalusian election, some people in the national leadership (the 'possibilistic' faction apparently led by Íñigo Errejón) seemed to be prone to reach an agreement with PSOE and stated that the conditions put by the regional branch led by Teresa Rodríguez, in order to allow socialists to govern, were only "suggestions". Rodríguez protested and Pablo Iglesias rectified the statement made by other member of the national executive. In the region of Madrid things would be somewhat easier, given the good relationship between the candidates of PSOE, Podemos and IU. However, polls deny in most cases the possibility of a left-wing majority and the governability would depend on Ciudadanos. There are regions like Valencia where left-wing coalitions could involve four parties (if they get a majority) and even more in the Balearic Islands. It's not easy to say what is going to happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2015, 04:05:43 AM
According to El Diario, there's panic in PP before the "change of cycle". Populares hope to get enough votes to preserve some regional and local bastions, providing that Ciudadanos grants them pardon. An angry José María Aznar claimed on Sunday that Spain and the Popular Party need "historical continuity", while he admonished the bad treatment received by his wife and incumbent Mayor of Madrid, Ana Botella, who has been ignored by her party and by candidate Esperanza Aguirre. Some polls suggest that the race is open in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona. According to the last Metroscopia poll, Esperanza Aguirre has not victory ensured while challenger Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) seems to be bridging the gap. Carmena met recently with former president of Uruguay José Mújica.

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Another Metroscopia poll for Barcelona places Ada Colau (BComú) ahead in the mayoral race.

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In Catalonia, campaign issues range from a war on flags...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/15/inenglish/1431676542_954337.html

Quote
Catalan nationalist parties reacted angrily on Thursday after Spain’s Central Electoral Commission issued a resolution ordering all esteladas – the flag symbolizing the region’s bid for independence – removed from “public buildings and polling centers” in order to maintain neutrality during the campaign for local and regional elections on May 24 (...)

... to the xenophobic drive of Catalan PP. Incumbent mayor of Badalona Xavier García Albiol promises to "clean up the city" without saying explicitly what he wants to clean. Sadly, García Albiol is polling quite well (according to GESOP) in that city located north of Barcelona. In the very Barcelona, PP handed out explicitly xenophobic leaflets in the neighbourhood of El Raval, a place with a high share of immigrants and the main exponent of the city's "multiculturalism".

A MyWord poll for Valencia predicts heavy losses for PP, to the point that C's support might not be enough to retain a majority both in the regional parliament and the Valencia Town Hall.

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However, there are polls for every taste. For instance, Sigma Dos predicts better results for PP in Madrid and Valencia, as well places Maria Dolores de Cospedal on the verge of a majority in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election.

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 18, 2015, 04:25:55 AM
Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2015, 05:41:56 AM
Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?

There are bad prospects for PP and PSC, indeed. However (if we have to trust in a series of polls conducted by GESOP and released by El Periódico) PP resists in Badalona and PSC in several metropolitan municipalities such as l'Hospitalet and Santa Coloma, as well in Lleida and Tarragona (both are provincial capitals). The flegg issue is indeed stupid, keeping in mind that the discussion on the separatist "process" has been calmed down as of late.

Podemos decided to run alone nationwide in the regional elections. There might be a certain incompatibility between Podemos and Compromís, due to the peripheral nationalist component of the latter. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc (BNV) is the major partner in the Compromís coalition, although they are moderate in their nationalism if compared with their separatist Catalan counterparts and candidate Mónica Oltra is not from the BNV ranks. Oltra was formerly in IU and currently leads a small party called Valencian's People Initiative (IdPV), which is associated with Equo (the Spanish greens). There is an obvious proximity between Oltra and Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 18, 2015, 05:52:39 AM
Thanks.

It looks like Diaz is in more trouble in Andulacia. None of the other parties are refusing to bite. Reelection likely?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2015, 08:42:18 AM
Uff... that's hard to predict. Right now there's a total deadlock. My impression is that Susana Díaz would prefer to reach a stability agreement with Ciudadanos rather than Podemos. Díaz is more a centrist with a sensibility for social issues than a left-winger. In her investiture speech she made nods with both C's and Podemos and launched some anti-corruption proposals consistent with those of the orange party. However, she didn't yield to the requirement made by C's and Podemos on the immediate withdrawal of former premiers Chaves and Griñán. To be fair, that's not entirely in her hands and both won't continue active in politics once their terms expire. Podemos, on the other hand, complains because Díaz is not prone to reach an agreement on their proposals (not contracting banks that evict people and a reduction of confidence posts in regional administration). Díaz seems to believe that her victory was a mandate for her to govern, while other people think that the result (the worst for PSOE in the historical series) was a mandate to implement changes in the style of governance. I think there's a mix of  of political calculation, a certain arrogance in the contending parties and a political culture based on confrontation instead of pact.  I'd say the unlock is mainly in the hands of Albert Rivera, but we'll see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 19, 2015, 05:04:29 AM
To give an idea on how uncertain is the result of the upcoming elections, the graph below shows the percentage of undecided voters according to the last CIS survey in the 13 regions holding elections, as well in the cities of Madrid and Barcelona:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 19, 2015, 01:53:41 PM
El Mundo today*: " ETA prisoners want Podemos in the government". The subheadline says: "They are just like us, but Spaniards". According to that, prisoners encourage their group of friends to vote for the guy with the ponytail (Pablo Iglesias) and advise EH Bildu abertzales that they must not run in the general election and endorse Podemos. Supposedly, the 'scoop' is based on private conversations recorded at prison.

() (http://imgur.com/EMuH2M1)

The Spanish paper is definitely reaching the level of glorious tabloid papers like the News of the World, The Sun or The National Enquirer ;D

*El Mundo Today is an online satiric paper in Spanish. Highly recommendable (and more serious than El Mundo, it seems)

http://www.elmundotoday.com/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 19, 2015, 06:17:26 PM
Televised debate in the governmental Tele Madrid between the mayoral candidates running in the Spanish capital. Shame.

()

From left to right: Esperanza Aguirre (PP, dressed in orange), Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid), Daniel Morcillo (IU's number 5), Antonio Miguel Carmona (PSOE), Begoña Villacís (C's, in orange) and Javier Ortega-Smith (Vox).

Esperanza Aguirre had a face-to-face debate with Manuela Carmena. Consistently with that front page in El Mundo, Aguirre accused Carmena (a retired judge) of releasing members of ETA from prison, among the usual mentions to 'bolivarian' regimes and similar stuff. Carmena, whom never loses her temper, replied that PP candidate lacks of intellectual rigour and states feeling embarrassed because it's a "pity" that Aguirre feels compelled to say such simplistic things. "Everybody knows that I've been fighting for freedom and democracy all my life", said the Ahora Madrid candidate. Among other things, Carmena was judge of the Supreme Court, UN rapporteur, received a national human rights award and was co-founder of a labour law firm which suffered a terrorist attack from the far right in 1977 (Atocha killings).  It's all so sickening that is better leaving at that. One could say that polls placing Carmena side by side with Aguirre in the mayoral race have some plausibility.

Video here:

http://www.eldiario.es/rastreador/Carmena-Aguirre-sorprende-actitud-reconocer_6_389921011.html

After that poll showing Aguirre in a technical tie with Carmena was released, the leader of PP in Madrid stated that "if Podemos wins, it will be the last time Spaniards vote freely".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/18/inenglish/1431957479_408167.html

Quote
“If some Madrileños want to have Podemos in office at Madrid City Hall, that’s up to them,” said Aguirre, whose party has controlled the capital uninterruptedly for the last 24 years. In her opinion, Ahora Madrid goes against her own principles of “freedom, life, private property, the rule of law and pride in being Spanish.”

What’s more, if Podemos were to win at the national level in the general election scheduled for this fall, “that will be the last time we vote freely; after that we will vote, but like they do in Cuba.”


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 20, 2015, 08:20:29 AM
Campaign news.

"Clash" in the mayoral debate:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432112700_244670.html

Quote
Carmena, a judge whose face was unfamiliar to voters until her appointment to represent Ahora Madrid, focused her attacks on corruption in the Madrid regional government, which Aguirre headed between 2003 and 2012.

“Our democracy is sick; citizens are estranged from politicians because of corruption, which developed under your government as it turns out,” she said. “You sought out aides who played key roles in the structures of corruption, and they were already involved in it when you picked them out. I don’t understand why you would want to keep governing after all the harm you’ve done. […] It was your government, your team, you are responsible. Really, I’m telling you not to continue, you’ve already done a lot of harm, you must not go on.”

Aguirre, for her part, accused her rival of lacking any specific program – a criticism that has often been leveled against Podemos – and alluded to the party’s alleged ties to authoritarian regimes from Latin America.

“You hug people a lot, you’re very kind, but we haven’t seen your program,” said Aguirre. “Podemos, PSOE and IU [United Left] are running on a single platform: to make sure I don’t get voted into the mayor’s office. And in order to reach that goal, they do what totalitarians do, which is to use lies and disguises.”

The conservative candidate also suggested that Carmena may have sympathies with Basque terrorist group ETA, and said that as a judge she freed a convicted member who “the very next day stated that he did not regret his attacks.”

“What do you plan to do besides being kind, very kind, extremely kind? And why do you say that ETA members have suffered tremendously?” asked Aguirre.

Carmena fought back with the claim that “everyone knows that I have been fighting my whole life for democracy and freedom.”

Socialist candidate for Madrid mayor moots local ID cards for non-residents (Albert Rivera won't like it):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432115697_622775.html

Quote
During an interview with EL PAÍS on Tuesday, Antonio Miguel Carmona explained that his proposal is similar to one that has already been introduced in the Madrid satellite city of Fuenlabrada, as well as in New York City by Mayor Bill de Blasio.

PM Mariano Rajoy lives in Wonderland: "Who’s talking about bailouts, recession or unemployment?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/19/inenglish/1432051165_330439.html

Quote
In difficult times, the Popular Party (PP) is a sure bet. That was the gist of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s message at a rally on Tuesday in Pamplona, where he portrayed his conservative group as “the only guarantee for the future” of the Navarre region and Spain as a whole (...)

Young, elder and undecided women are key in the battles for Madrid and Barcelona, says another analysis on CIS survey (in Spanish)

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/Madrid-Barcelona_6_389921005.html

Interesting prediction based on average polling with graphs and stuff in El Español, the new digital vehicle of the  ineffable Pedro J Ramírez (the machiavellian former editor of El Mundo who apparently was sacked because of pressures from La Moncloa).

Madrid: Aguirre or Carmena? Average polling is not as optimistic as the last Metroscopia poll; there's disparity in estimations. Measured: Metroscopia, NC Report, Sigma Dos and MyWord.

PP 34.5% (22 councilors), AM 21.8% (14), PSOE 18.4% (11), C's 16% (10), IU 4.1% (-)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/aguirre-o-carmena-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

Barcelona: Trias or Colau? Mesured: Metroscopia, Sigma Dos, GAD3 and Feedback.

CiU 23.1% (10), BComú 20.2% (9), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 12.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PP 9.9% (4), CUP 5.6% (2)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/trias-o-colau-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

The delegation of El Periódico in Andorra will release daily trackings for Barcelona conducted by GESOP, now that it's illegal doing so in Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2015, 05:13:59 AM
The 'forbidden' polls from Andorra (this is not a Spanish site, so I guess I'm not breaking the law). Technical tie between Xavier Trias (CiU) and Ada Colau (BComú). PP, PSC and C's are tied in third place, ERC is technically tied with those parties and CUP is on the edge of the 5% threshold.

Barcelona City Hall (41 councilors) GESOP / El Periòdic

CiU 23% (10-11), BComú 21% (9-10), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 11.7% (5-6), C's 11.5% (5-6), ERC 10.5% (4-5), CUP 5% (0-2).

Direct vote intention: BComú 20.3%, CiU 18.8%, ERC 10.3%, C's 7.3%, PSC 6%, PP 3.8%, CUP 3%

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44170/auguris-a-el-periodic



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2015, 12:59:28 AM
According to El País, Ciudadanos might be more willing to forge agreements with PSOE than PP.  I ignore to what extent the news is wishful thinking, but...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432199149_328545.html

Quote
Ciudadanos leaders have approached PSOE secretary general Pedro Sánchez because they say they sense a greater desire for the kind of renewal they have in mind, such as introducing primaries where all party members can vote for candidates, rather than the current system where leaders cherry-pick their running mates. So far, the PP has refused the notion of primaries, with one leader calling it “an American thing.”

“You have to keep in mind that we are a markedly progressive party; we feel a lot more affinity with the PSOE [than with the PP],” says Matías Alonso, secretary general for Ciudadanos. “At least apparently, the PSOE is seeking ways to change its discourse and renew itself.”

Pedro Sánchez, for his part, has described Ciudadanos as “the civilized right that it is possible to talk with.”

Albert Rivera denied in an interview in El Diario that he's a man on the right, as well criticised the Podemos' "excessive calculation" that might take its toll to them. People thinking in C's as the "crutch" in which PSOE lies in Andalusia and PP in the rest of Spain is mistaken, said Rivera.

However, PSOE and C's are at odds in Andalusia. According to an influential figure in the surroundings of the orange party:

Quote
“There is an eroded party in government, the PP, and another one, the PSOE, which has renewed itself somewhat but still insufficiently,” says Francesc de Carreras, a professor of constitutional law who does not have an official position within Ciudadanos but has signed its foundational manifesto.

A week ago premier Susana Díaz lost the third vote in the regional parliament, after talks between groups stalled. Podemos C's and IU said that PSOE failed to accept any of their conditions, while the PP says its vote is conditioned by a new inquiry into the reopening of the Aznalcóllar mine (it produced zinc and silver and was owned by Boliden AB, a Swedish company), which created a major environmental disaster in 1998 when a toxic waste reservoir burst around the nature preserve of Doñana National Park.

According to the same news and a statement made by Íñigo Errejón, Podemos expects to negotiate with PSOE after May 24 in order to eject PP from regional and local governments.

On the other hand Esperanza Aguirre and Rita Barberá, the veteran politicians standing as PP mayoral candidates for Madrid and Valencia, are surrounded by contentious issues. Infolibre leaked yesterday Aguirre's tax returns. The leader of PP in Madrid earned a total amount of 374,000 Euros in 2013, 369 thousand from a talent search firm called Seelinger & Conde and the remaining 5 thousand from "games of chance". Her high emoluments shocked people and many point ironically that Aguirre has showed little aptitudes for headhunting while she was Madrid premier, given that her partners Francisco Granados and Ignacio González are involved in corruption scandals and regional PP is rotten by multiple corrupt plots. Aguirre has claimed several times that her income was so meagre that she could hardly pay energy bills. PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid felt outraged by the leakage and filed a complaint with the Prosecutor General's Office alleging violation of the right to privacy; the Treasury is about to open an inquiry. Aguirre was very local in criticising Juan Carlos Monedero (Podemos) when another leakage revealed that he received a certain amount of money in exchange for consultancy works; funnily enough she said her PSOE rival in the mayoral race is "rich", because he gets two salaries (Antonio Miguel Carmona is member of the regional assembly and university professor).

Incumbent Mayoress of Valencia Rita Barberá is involved in several controversies, being the last an allegation made by Compromís accusing her of misuse of public funds to pay her travel expenses (including bodyguards) and attend PP acts. Hotel, travel and restaurant bills, as well gifts defrayed by the Valencia cabinet office, are published in the Compromís site. Tonight Mariano Rajoy attended a rally in support of Valencia regional premier Albert Fabra and Ms Barberá. No mentions to corruption affecting the Valencian PP.

Pablo Iglesias attended a crowded rally in Zaragoza, in support of candidate for Aragón premier Pablo Echenique. Podemos people is enthusiastic: "Pablo is back".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=48&v=8us4tBPKdlU

There's a very detailed map by municipality in El País showing the current share of the local power in Spain. Includes parties placing first and second in the 2011 elections and vote share by municipality for PP, PSOE, IU, UPyD, CiU and PNV.

 http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2015, 02:32:56 AM
According to the GESOP tracking, Xavier Trias seems to be consolidating a slight advantage over Ada Colau in Barcelona. In the graph, preferred mayor and direct vote intention.

()

Full poll here:

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44212/trias-consolida-su-ligera-ventaja-sobre-colau


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 24, 2015, 07:38:25 AM
Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 11:21:45 AM
Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

Nice. At the end of the day Mr Burns finances all of them, isn't it? Except Podemos people because of the crowdfunding, although they indeed have a Messiah ;D The only thing is the characterisation of C's: Rivera and his followers dress more elegantly than that.

Could you vote by mail? It's not easy with the voto rogado system.

I voted at midday and it was the first time that I had to queue at the polling booth. But not at the ballot box, luckily. There are several census sections in the poling station and mine has few voters -people had to wait at the more crowded box on my right. I had to cast three ballots: regional parliament, councilors and Cabildo.

However, the report from Ministry of Interior said that turnout decreased by 1% nationwide at 14:00 (CET) with regard to 2011 (34.8% to 35.8%). Figures correspond to the municipal elections that are being held in all of Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 01:11:14 PM
Turnout nationwide at 18:00 (CET): 49.78% (49.19% in 2011).

High increases in the cities of Barcelona  (+8%) and San Sebastián (+7%). Turnout is about 3% higher in the cities of Madrid (53.3% / 50.41%) and Valencia, while decreases about 3% in Seville (45.23% / 45.11%).

95% of the 1.8 million of Spaniards living abroad won't vote in this election. Protests have taken place in 40 cities around the world (Amsterdam, Berlin, Boston, Buenos Aires and Copenhagen, among others) against the law that regulates vote abroad (the voto rogado), which puts many administrative obstacles to vote by mail and was passed in 2010 with the support of PSOE, PP, CiU and BNG. Nowadays socialists promise to change it once in power, while PP is against any reform of the system because "it's a guarantee". Fun fact: In the Andalusian election Podemos won the overseas vote; votes cast were a few thousand, though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 24, 2015, 01:29:05 PM
Any English language results pages?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 01:36:16 PM
Exit polls for regional televisions.

City of Madrid (Tele Madrid): AM 33.8% (22-23 councilors), PP 31.9% (19-22), PSOE 15.5% (9-10), C's 10.8% (6-7).

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 30.8% (43-46 seats), PSOE 33-36 seats, Podemos 22.3% (30-33), C's 12%  (16-18)

Barcelona (TV3): BComú 10-12, CiU 9-11 councilors, PSC 4-5, C's 4-5, ERC 3-4, CUP 3-4

Seville (Canal Sur): PSOE 12-14 councilors, PP 10-12, C's 4, Participa Sevilla (Podemos) 4, IU 2.

Antena 3 says that PP takes the lead in Madrid with 21-23 councilors, followed by Ahora Madrid (17-19), while in Barcelona CiU would get 11-12 councilors and Barcelona en Comú would trail getting 10-11, PSC 5-6, PP 4-5 and ERC 3-4.

According to Antena 3 exit poll, PP would get 27% nationwide (-10%) and PSOE 25% (-2%). Podemos and C's would win seats in every regional parliament.

This is going to be exciting to watch.

Any English language results pages?

I don't know anyone. I'll link the official website once they are reporting official results. Booths are still open in the Canaries.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: DL on May 24, 2015, 01:40:38 PM
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 01:46:09 PM
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: RodPresident on May 24, 2015, 02:05:39 PM
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 02:23:08 PM
You can check regional and municipal results in El País website (as well in other media outlets):

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/autonomicas-municipales.html

Provisional results of local elections in the Ministry of Interior:

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU99999TO_L1.htm



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 24, 2015, 02:48:23 PM
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.

Exactly, PP and PSOE made a deal to govern together, hence having the absolute majority. he condition was that Rodríguez Sahagún had to be the mayor. Btw, this deal was a big reason why CDS collapsed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 03:05:17 PM
Count in the Basque Country is going quite fast. PNV retains Bilbao (at 91.7%), wins San Sebastían to EH Bildu (which falls to the third place) and PP retains a plurality in Vitoria.

Bilbao (91.7%): PNV 13 councilors, EH Bildu 4, PSE-EE 4, PP 4, Udalberri-Bilbao en Cmún 2, Ganemos 2.

Donostia / San Sebastián (74.2%): PNV 9, PSE-EE 7, EH Bildu 7, PP 2, Irabazi 2

Vitoria / Gasteiz (82%): PP 9, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5, PSE-EE 4, Hemen-Gaude (Podemos) 2, Irabazi (IU-Equo-Ganemos) 1

In Andalusia, PSOE wins Seville to PP while in Málaga the blues retain the first place.

Seville (84.9%): PSOE 12, PP 11, C's 3, Participa Sevilla 3, IU 2

Málaga (81%): PP 13, PSOE 9, Málaga Ahora 4, C's 3, IU 2

By the moment Ada Colau (BComú) is ahead in Barcelona getting 12 councilors with the count approx. at 38.9%. In Madrid the count is at 14.66%. Ahora Madrid is slightly ahead of PP and both lists are tied at 20 councilors.



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 03:40:55 PM
Madrid (83.9%): PP 21 councilors, AM 19, PSOE 10, C's 7.

Manuela Carmena could be mayor propped up by PSOE but, as the count has progressed, socialists have lost 1 councilor to PP. Still too close to call, because the left has a single seat majority. IU and UPyD are getting 1.8% each.

Barcelona (92.8%): BComú 11 councilors, CiU 10, ERC 5, C's 5, PSC 4, PP 3, CUP 3.

More complicated, but Ada Colau has chances to be the next mayor.

Valencia (79.1%): PP 10 councilors, Compromís 9, C's 6, PSOE 5, Valencia en Comú 3.  IU is out of the council getting 4.7% of the vote (threshold is at 5%).

Compromís is the big surprise and can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the Podemos outfit.

Zaragoza (97.1%): PP 10, Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 9, PSOE 6, C's 4, CHA 2.

ZGZ includes Podemos and IU. It can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the regionalist CHA. I've just heard to some political sciencist that the city of Zaragoza is considered a kind of experimental ground to spot urban vote trends.

Regional count is progressing more slowly.

Asturias is already at 70%: PSOE 14 seats, PP 11, Podemos 10, IU 5, C's 3, FAC 2.

PSOE and IU resist, while Foro Asturias fails miserably. Podemos comes in a strong 3rd getting nearly 20% of the vote. It's possible that the good result for IU (12.3%) can be attributed to candidate Gaspar Llamazares.

Navarre is at 62%: UPN 15, Geroa Bai 9, EH Bildu 8, PSOE 7, Podemos 7, PP 2, IU 2

Better than expected for PSOE.



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 04:14:08 PM
Barcelona at 99.2%

BComú 25.2% (11 councilors), CiU 22.7% (10), C's 11.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PSC 9.7% (4), PP 8.7% (3), CUP 7.4% (3).

Madrid at 91.6%

PP 34.1% (21 councilors), AM 32.1% (20), PSOE 15.6% (9), C's 11.3% (7)

Valencia at 91.8%

PP 25.8% (10 councilors), Compromís 23.3% (9), C's 15.4% (6), PSOE 14% (5), VEC 9.8% (3), IU 4.7%

Seville at 92.6%

PP 33% (12), PSOE 32.2% (11), C's 9.3% (3), Participa Sevilla 9.1% (3), IU 6% (2)

Zaragoza at 99.6%

PP 26.9% (10), ZGZ 24.6% (9), PSOE 18.6% (6), C's 12.3% (4), CHA 6.8% (2)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 24, 2015, 04:21:24 PM
I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 04:27:34 PM
I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?

I'm afraid that UPyD is done. I'm not going to try to explain the reasons now. Results will deepen the UPyD crisis.

The lists backed by Podemos are not getting extraordinay results in the Basque Country. I think the loss of Donostia can be attributed to local factors, and it's a big success for PNV (the party recovers a city lost nearly 30 years ago).

By the moment, count progress say that PP can lose the regions of Aragon, Valencia, Balearic Islands, Extremadura and Madrid. It holds Murcia and La Rioja.

EDIT: Rosa Díez is speaking right now. She won't run in the general election. Spokesman Andrés Herzog says that UPyD is still alive.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 24, 2015, 04:54:24 PM
wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 24, 2015, 05:08:45 PM
Navarre looks like fun. The UPN was last time helped into office by the regional branch of the PSOE, but it will need another ally now. There is a mad four way pile up for second place between Podemos, PSOE Bildu and Geroa Bai.

These El Pais results are really fun to play with btw. I'm trying to find a single result that actually has a majority. All I've found so far is Ceuta, one of the little Spanish enclaves in Morocco.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:17:28 PM
Regional elections.

Aragon (at 99.1%)

PP 27.5% (21 seats), PSOE 21.4% (18), Podemos 20.5% (14), PAR 6.9% (6), C's 9.4% (5) CHA 4.6% (2), IU 4.2% (1)

PP possibly ousted by PSOE, Podemos, CHA and IU

Asturias (at 99.3%)

PSOE 26.4% (14 seats), PP 21.6% (11), Podemos 19% (9), IU 11.9% (5), FAC 8.2% (3), C's 7.1% (3)

Balearic Islands (at 99.2%)

PP 28.5% (20), PSOE 18.9% (14), Podemos 14.7% (10), Més per Mallorca 13.8% (6), PI 8% (3), Més per Menorca 1.5% (3), C's 5.9% (2), Gent (Formentera) 0.5% (1), IU 1.7% (-)

PSOE may govern allied with Podemos and the nationalist Més (Mallorca and Menorca).

Canary Islands (at 99.3%)

CC 18.2% (18), PSOE 19.9% (15), PP 18.6% (12), Podemos 14.5% (7), NC 10.2% (5), ASG 0,6% (3), C's 5.9% (-), UNIDOS 3.6% (-), IU+nationalists 2.2% (-)

C's fails to reach the 6% regional threshold and is out, while Casimiro Curbelo (ASG) wins a landslide in La Gomera surpassing the 30% insular threshold. The surrealistic electoral system allows CC to win a plurality of seats being the 3rd party in popular vote. PSOE resists and wins a plurality of votes, Podemos gets in strongly and the New Canaries improves (winning the Gran Canaria Cabildo). PP downfall; they'll become irrelevant. CC is inevitable to form coalitions.

Cantabria (at 98.6%)

PP 32.6% (13), PRC 30% (12), PSOE 14% (5), Podemos 8.8% (3), C's 6.9% (2), IU 2.5% (-)

Possibly PRC and socialists may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla-La Mancha (at 99.3%)

PP 37.5% (16), PSOE 36.1% (14), Podemos 9.7% (3), C's 8.6% (-), IU 3.1% (-)

Dolores de Cospedal has lost, despite winning a plurality. PSOE may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla y León (at 99.5%)

PP 37.9% (42), PSOE 25.9% (25), Podemos 12.1% (10), C's 10.3% (5), IU 4.1% (1), UPL 1.4% (1), UPyD 1.4% (-)

PP holds getting 1/2 of the seats.

Extremadura (at 99.8%)

PSOE 41.5% (20), PP 37% (28), Podemos 8% (6), C's 4.4% (1), IU 4.3% (-)

Fernández Vara (PSOE) defeats Monago (PP).

La Rioja (at 98%)

PP 38.5% (15), PSOE 26.6% (10), Podemos 11.2% (4), C's 10.5% (4)

Likely PP holds.

Madrid (at 99.96%)

PP 33.1% (48), PSOE 25.4% (37), Podemos 18.6% (27), C's 12.1% (17), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 2%, Vox 1.2% (-), PACMA 1%

Cristina Cifuentes (PP) may govern propped up by C's.

Murcia (at 98.9%)

PP 37.4% (22), PSOE 24% (13), Podemos 13.1% (6), C's 12.5% (4), IU 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-)

Likely PP holds; it's one seat short from majority.

Navarre (at 99.3%)

UPN 27.3% (15), Geroa Bai 15.9% (9), EH Bildu 14.3% ( 8 ), Podemos 13.7% (7), PSOE 13.4% (7), PP 3.9% (2), IU 3.7% (2),  C's 2.9% (-)

Possible majority adding Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU. C's fails to reach the 3% threshold which allows to win seats.

Valencia (at 99.3%)

PP 26.2% (31), PSOE 20.3% (23), Compromís 18.2% (19), C's 12.3% (13), Podemos 11.2% (13), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-)

PSOE, Compromís and Podemos can oust PP from government. Great result for Mónica Oltra (I'd say she's the moral victor here). Compromís transcends the (limited) regionalist vote in Valencia.

PP gets a majority in the autonomous city of Ceuta and falls short by one seat in Melilla (likely hold).


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 24, 2015, 05:18:52 PM
hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:20:13 PM
wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.

Dolores de Cospedal decided to reduce drastically the number of seats in the regional assembly. That move can be counterproductive for her if she doesn't win the 17th seat. The region must be the most polarised between PP and PSOE, alongside with Extremadura (PSOE wins).

hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.

I wouldn't try to calculate that. Madrid and Barcelona have been huge succeses, but results are very heterogeneous through all Spain. Municipal results in Catalonia would deserve more attention. Too many things happening.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 24, 2015, 05:27:25 PM
Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:35:12 PM
Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:44:06 PM
It seems that PP can lose my hometown.

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria is at 99.7%.

PP 28.7% (10 councilors), PSOE 19.7% (7), Podemos outfit 16.1% (6), C's 7.7% (2), NC 7.5% (2), UxGC 5.6% (2). PSOE+Podemos+NC add 15 out of 29 councilors. Great news.

Cabildo of Gran Canaria (at 99.5%):

NC 26.5% (9 councilors), PP 17.5% (6), PSOE 14.5% (5), Podemos 13.4% (4), UxGC 11.3% (4), CC 5.6% (1), C's 4.3% (-), IU 1.5%

Antonio Morales (NC) will be next president of the Cabildo. It's a good candidate and I voted for him, even though I despise his party. PP downfall while incumbent president (a PP old timer who got angry at Minister of Industry José Manuel Soria) gets into the Cabildo leading the Unidos por Gran Canaria outfit (UxGC).




Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 24, 2015, 05:45:12 PM
Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.

Right. That's kind of what I thought.

Looking at the local results now - Podemos and their affiliates didn't put a lot of effort in running on councils outside the major centers, did they?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:46:48 PM
They could have done better.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:59:11 PM
The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 24, 2015, 06:09:27 PM
The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.

Oh,of course



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 06:12:32 PM
Fun fact: all 4 seats returned from La Gomera to the Canarian Parliament are 'socialist'. The Casimiro Curbelo outfit (ASG, something like "Gomera Socialist Grouping") wins 3 seats and PSOE the remaining.

Cabildo of La Gomera (100%).

ASG 50.2% (10 councilors), PSOE 15.3% (3), PP 9.2% (1), SSP (Podemos) 9.2% (1), NC 9% (1), CC 6.2% (1)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 06:28:00 PM
In the region of Madrid things have reversed a bit (PP +1, PSOE -1). With the count at 98% PP wins 48 seats, PSOE 37, Podemos 27 and C's 17. PP+C's 65, PSOE+Podemos 64. Cristina Cifuentes (PP) could hold if C's allows her. Dual vote in the city of Madrid between Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo. In the regional election PP gets 35% in the capital (more than Aguirre in the local), PSOE 25.7%, Podemos 17.8% and C's 11.3%.

Valencia seems definitely lost for PP, both the city and the region.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 06:49:56 PM
Galician municipalities.

Marea Atlántica (AGE, Podemos) is ahead by 100 votes of PP in La Coruña winning 10 councilors each, PSOE wins 6 and BNG 1.

Compostela Aberta (same as Marea) is ahead in Santiago winning 11 councilors, PP 10, PSOE 4 and BNG 2.

Socialist landslide in Vigo: PSOE 17 councilors, PP 7 and Marea de Vigo 3.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 02:15:19 AM
The PP loses the absholute majority in CyL, they'll probably govern nonetheless since for the left to govern it'd require PSOE+Podemos+C's+IU+UPL. That being said, the fact that the PP lost the majority in Spain's most rural and conservative region (maybe also La Rioja?) is very telling of the electoral catastrophe of the PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 03:33:59 AM
NYT: "Ruling party Loses Hold as Leftists surge in Spain"

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/25/world/europe/ruling-party-loses-hold-as-leftists-surge-in-spain.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=1

Wall Street Journal: "Podemos and Ciudadanos Punish Spain's Ruling Popular Party in Regional Elections"

Le Monde: Indignados Surge.

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/05/25/elections-en-espagne-percee-historique-des-indignes_4639655_3214.html

The Guardian: "Spain's indignados could rule Madrid and Barcelona after local election success"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/spains-indignados-ada-colau-elections-mayor-barcelona

La Reppublica: "Electoral earthquake"

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2015/05/24/news/elezioni_amministrative_spagna-115170250/?ref=HREA-1

O Globo: The left advances.

http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/esquerda-avanca-na-espanha-toma-terreno-do-pp-16251279



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 03:46:07 AM
And Velasco, no I didn't vote, it is far too complicated to vote from abraod these days. You have to register ahead, which means a 2 1/2 hour journey with the right papers to Amsterdam by train (20 euros or so), plus paying a fee and then sending it and provided I get all the stuff. So I didn't bother. I will for the general ones though.

As for tonight, it is pretty much amazing. The results imply that the PP has lost every single majority, including such conservative bastions as Murcia, La Rioja or Castilla y León. Although in all these three, a broad - and potentially unstable - anti-pepero coalitions would have to be created since the party is 1 or 2 seats away from the majority in those three regions. But still it's amazing.

In my home town of Valladolid, de la Riva might lose the government, the PP's support in the real capital of Spain has gone down from 52% to 35%, and a PSOE-IU-Podemos alliance could give the city to the left for the first time since the early 1980s. And while de la Riva is a pretty competent mayor, he is however an asshole, a misogynist and talks too much. In my other home town, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid's third largest city, the PP has lost its absolute majority, and not even the unholy pact with España 2000 will it be able to continue governing like it did in 2011.

Interestingly also in Madrid, in Torrejón de Ardoz, the PP retains its absolute majority with with 52% of the vote, but it is understandable, in 2011 it obtained a 70% majority, and it won a minority for the first time ever in 2007. From what I understand the previous IU-PSOE coalitions that ruled the city from 1979 to 2007 were not just corrupt but incredibly inefficient, useless and incompetent. And even communist friends of mine admit that they wouldn't mind a PP like Torrejon's governing, because they have done a very good job, which explains why that majority has withstood today's electoral tsunami.


Also, if let's there's anti-PP coalitions everywhere (far from certain tho), it would mean that in all CCAA save Galicia, a party other than the PP will govern, this is going to create for the remainder of the year a tremendous conflict between the central government and the regions. Because the PP may have an absolute majority in Congress but if the CCAA are unwilling to implement the laws it will become very hard to govern. Either that or the PP has to accommodate t


The effects of Cospedal's gerrymandering:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 03:58:56 AM
Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious. This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand). Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole). Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 05:54:01 AM
Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious.

I knew about Aguirre, not Cospedal though. I remember her defence of that was saying that 'no one reads them anyway'. Which may be true, but you cannot pretend to win an election without at least giving the citizens the possibility of knowing what you are going to do, or promising to do at any rate. It is ridiculous.

In any case, what were they going to promise? End corruption? End cuts? Stability, arrogance and continuance were the only things they could offer, and voters wanted none of that, and both were smart enough to know it. So why bother? Especially in Aguirre's case, it was better to run a personalist campaign.

This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand).

That's so evident that even the President of FAES had to see it. No programme, gaffes that not even her popularity could fix, and ridiculous attacks on a former judge by being far too over-aggressive on the debates. What a shameful campaign.

Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole).

I don't think De la riva deserved to lose on a management level, Valladolid is a fairly well-run city overall, much better than most towns in Madrid, at least from what I see and compare, but from a political level he does, plus 24 years or so governing is too long. The only bright spot is that despite being such a misogynist, he was against the PP's reform of abortion, probably because he's a gynaecologist. Or when he appointed Spain's first city councillor with Down's syndrome two years ago.

All of them deserve their defeat, the only half-likeable PP baron is Feijóo, and he wasn't up to election anyway. Everyone else ran stupid campaigns, while the PSOE tried to hide its name in its campaign and highlighting the personal side of the candidates, which I think will lead to further inner struggle. Although this has reinforced Sánchez' position within the party. I would say.

Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.

Indeed, and we'll see if they don't crush and burn because of getting into the meddlesome and dirty world of practical politics in parliament. The CAM is particularly interesting, either a PP minority with support from C's through abstaining or a left-wing shaky government backed up by C's too. And in the meantime, if the former happens, then there'd be a left-wing mayor in Madrid (50-60% of CAM's pop.) to a right-wing (even if a fairly moderate one like Cifuentes) government in Puerta del Sol.

This article is fairly interesting (in Spanish): El resultado abre una brecha generacional en el PP de Raoy (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/25/actualidad/1432543945_854180.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 06:32:35 AM
Europa Press just released some fancy graphics, which I think are quite informative:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 10:11:20 AM
Nice graphs. I'll take a look at the PP generation's gap thing ;)

Five urgent measures that Manuela Carmena will implement within the first hundred of days of her government, providing that she becomes mayor with the help of PSOE:

1) Provide the means and municipal resources necessary to stop first home evictions and guarantee alternative housing.

2) Stop the privatisation of public utilities, the outsource of municipal services to big businesses and the sale of public heritage.

3) Guaranteeing basic supplies such as water and energy to all households that can't afford them.

4) Guaranteeing access to municipal health protection, as well to health promotion and prevention actions to all people, regardless of their administrative status (irregulars, for instance)

5) Urgent job placement scheme to young people and long-time unemployed.

Barcelona en Comú has an emergency plan, too. I have no time to translate now.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/05/25/madrid/1432556977_450859.html

Interactive map of results by municipality:

http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Boston Bread on May 25, 2015, 10:55:43 AM
The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: FredLindq on May 25, 2015, 01:28:32 PM
What will th army do now?!


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 25, 2015, 01:43:37 PM
Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 04:14:50 PM
Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 05:57:13 PM
The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.

C's doesn't want to create the impression of being a sort of preferential ally for PP and Albert Rivera states that he's open to speak with PP, PSOE and even Podemos. The point is that C's is the only possible ally for PP. In the 4 regions where the orange party holds the balance of power there are very little chances for governments alternative to PP (cases of Murcia, Castilla y León and La Rioja), except in the region of Madrid (C's can support a PP minority government or abstain allowing a PSOE-Podemos administration). C's is not going to join any type of coalition, in any case they could give confidence and supply under certain conditions. PSOE and C's are not so far from each other and they may or may not cooperate in some places, including the unlock of the investiture of socialist premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia. However, PSOE needs Podemos in regions like Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha, the Balearic Islands, etc. C's is closer to PP on economic policies and issues like immigration and healthcare benefits. The bulk of C's support comes from PP and UPyD. C's voters are "reformist" rather than "anti-establishment" and a majority is placed on the centre and the centre-right side of the spectrum. According to an analysis of the CIS April survey that I translated in a previous post, the main risk for C's would be being associated unequivocally with the mainstream right, so Albert Rivera will be careful because he's not stupid. C's and PSOE share "liberal" stances on some social issues. Also, as a news posted before says, C's considers that PSOE has taken little but insufficient steps toward "regeneration" while Mariano Rajoy's PP is in total stasis. Rajoy is the main problem for PP right now.

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.

I think the graph is wrong in what regards possible alliances in the Balearic Islands. The second option looks like unworkable: I can hardly see Podemos and PI (many of their members come from PP) together. Otherwise graphs are very informative. Summary of Balearic parties:

MÉS (Més per Mallorca): Majorcan coalition including PSM-Entesa* (Majorca nationalists), Iniciativa Verds (IU splinter associated with Equo) and ERC. It's placed on the left ranging from ecosocialism to Catalan separatism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9s_per_Mallorca

MpM (Més per Menorca): Coalition similar to MÉS that operates in Menorca island.

*PSM-Entesa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSM-Nationalist_Agreement

PI (Proposta per les Illes): Centre-right regionalist party formed by the merger of smaller parties. It's ""socially and politically a big tent, balearista political formation with a tendency to centrism". It's stronger in Majorca island.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposta_per_les_Illes

GxF+PSIB: GxF is Gent per Formentera (People for Formentera), a left leaning party from that island not so different from the Més coalitions in Majorca and Menorca. PSIB is the name of the regional branch of PSOE.

MÉS got 17.1% in Majorca, MpM 17.5% in Menorca and Gent per Eivissa (GxE) 3.85% in Ibiza. PI got 8.8% in Majorca, 3.2% in Menorca and 5.7% in Ibiza.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Zanas on May 25, 2015, 06:02:01 PM
For now, C's course reminds me awfully of Modem 2007. It didn't go well...


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 06:21:27 PM
We'll see how it ends. Given the course of PP, there was a huge gap on the centre-right of the spectrum and Albert Rivera was passing by ;)

Now that I remember, the Majorcan Union (Unió Mallorquina, a precedent of the PI) joined in 2007 a coalition government with PSOE and Balearic nationalists. The UM was led by an interesting woman called Maria Antònia Munar, who quitted politics in 2010 because she and her party were involved in several corruption scandals. Munar was sentenced to five years in prison. UM wrecked* in the 2011 elections after having being the party which held the balance of power in the region for a couple of decades, supporting alternatively PP and PSOE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorcan_Union

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Ant%C3%B2nia_Munar

*EDIT: Actually, UM was declared officially dead and its reminders conformed a new party called Convergence for the Isles (Convergència per les Illes, CxI), which ran in the 2011 and later merged with other regionalist outfits in Proposal for the Isles (Proposta per les Illes), in November 2012.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 25, 2015, 06:34:46 PM
Is it fair to say that Ciudadanos are afraid of any partnership with PP also because of what happened with the Lib-Dems in the UK?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 06:51:32 PM
Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Zanas on May 26, 2015, 04:47:13 AM
I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: RodPresident on May 26, 2015, 05:36:42 AM
Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.
Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Jewephilzz1 on May 26, 2015, 06:25:41 AM
The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe.  



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Zanas on May 26, 2015, 06:39:24 AM
The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe. 


Welcome to the forum, Captain Obvious ! You have been missed !

(Seriously though, welcome :))


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Zanas on May 26, 2015, 06:50:03 AM
Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 06:55:31 AM
I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?

Yes, Galicia and Basque country will hold elections next year. Podemos got into every regional parliament. C's failed to win seats in Castilla-La Mancha and the Canaries due to the shenanigans of their respective electoral systems. As for upcoming talks, both Podemos and C's are setting conditions to pact.

Podemos demands: 1) Zero tolerance with regard to corruption and 2) a 180 degree spin on cut policies. According to El País, Podemos makes ousting PP its priority in brokering deals:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432632968_118593.html

Quote
In the wake of the May 24 local and regional elections, which saw the Popular Party (PP) lose many of its absolute majorities, anti-austerity party Podemos has made it a priority to eject the conservatives from power wherever it can (...)

C's has set 10 conditions to pact. In the aftermath of the Sunday's election they warned PP: "no primaries, no support".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568221_353231.html

Quote
But on Monday morning, Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera reiterated the emerging force’s non-negotiable condition for any agreement: the introduction of party primaries as a gesture of democratic regeneration.

“That condition is going to be on the table,” said Rivera, whose party has successfully made the jump from Catalan politics to the national arena this year (...)

As for Madrid, Manuela Carmena phoned PSOE candidate Antonio Miguel Carmona. The path toward an agreement between Ahora Madrid and PSOE seems clear and Carmena will be likely the next Mayoress of Madrid.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568422_087962.html

In Barcelona, pacts are more complicated due to the composition of the council and the lack of clear majorities. In any case, Ada Colau will govern the capital of Catalonia in minority. On election night, incumbent mayor Xavier Trias (CiU) conceded defeat and renounced to form alternative alliances. Colau already has a plan: new utility firm taxes and end to official cars:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432563972_012218.html

Quote
“Ambitious” but “doable.” That is how Barcelona en Comú (BComú), the leftist coalition that won municipal elections in Barcelona on Sunday, has defined its own “Action plan for the first months in government,” a document the group made public even before completing its campaign platform (...)

Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.

In any case, an alliance with Bildu will provide reasons to attack Podemos from Madrid media, PP and C's.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 07:00:09 AM
Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.

No, Ahora Madrid is left-wing, but it's not a communist-led coalition. Manuela Carmena is an indepedent backed by Podemos. She's fairly moderate in attitude and opinions and a free rider (personally, I adore her). There is people coming from the purple party, IU dissidents, Equo and several social movements. In any case it's a coalition of the "new left".


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 07:03:54 AM
Madrid local election: results by district. Leading parties (right) and vote share by district for every party winning seats in the Madrid City Hall (left).

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 26, 2015, 09:13:01 AM
This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

why did Cascos resign in Asturias? Is FAC now dead without him?

Why is Navarre so hideously fragmented?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 26, 2015, 01:50:47 PM
This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

I guess that since all these three parties are relatively centrist and 'pragmatic' (as in give power and money and I'll support you), I guess they'll apply the same conditions they told the PP to follow regarding internal accountability and some such. But they haven't made a fuss about it in general. I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

Quote
Is FAC now dead without him?

Most likely, as you can see from their very diminished electoral results.

Quote
Why is Navarre so hideously fragmented?

Well there's the Basque-speaking and the Spanish-speaking divide in the region and within each, there are right-wing and left-wing forces. So for instance in the Basque-speaking community, G-Bai, the PNV's brand of sorts in Navarra, they could be the right (even if they are vaguely centre-left) while Bildu is obviously the left. Then for the Spanish part, UPN used to be in a coalition with the PP, but it broke down so now both run against each other to obtain the right-wing vote of the Spanish speakers. And then there's the PSOE. The 'radical' left of Podemos and of IU tend to cross the linguistic border from what I understand.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 04:41:16 PM
I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

Not really. Given that C's failed to get into the Canarian Parliament by not surpassing the 6% regional threshold (they got 5.93%), they'll have little to say down here. C's seems more 'flexible' and 'pragmatic' than UPyD in what regards dealing with the various centre-right regionalist parties. Also, the orange party has recruited members of several local outfits in the effort to expand territorial implementation, including the candidate in the Andalusian election. I have researched too little on that. There were cases that I found more strange, like certain former Falangista who was running in the local list of certain small municipality in Madrid. Rivera says that he doesn't believe in the "red and blue" divide, but that's something more serious than recruiting local politicians or former PP, PSOE or UPyD members. I mean, that's the kind of things that can ruin the C's claim that they are a "progressive" force. 

In the news, Aguirre seeks pacts to keep Podemos out of the City Hall:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432662540_821073.html

Quote
“I would like to announce that I will never be an obstacle to reaching agreements [on a coalition],” she told reporters. “I wanted to return to politics to stop Podemos, and if I am the problem, there is no problem,” she said, implying she would step aside if that would stop Ahora Madrid from taking power in City Hall.
 

Aguirre is even willing to 'sacrifice' herself offering the post of Mayor to the socialist candidate, but Antonio Miguel Carmona rejected her offer. I've just heard him and he said that in neither case he's going to follow the example of Agustín Rodríguez Sahagún (that case was already mentioned in this thread). The PSOE candidate said that he would favour "the more progressive option" and confirmed that he talked with Manuela Carmena, but they haven't decided anything. His platform, that is really a neat work (more than 200 proposals), will be his pillar for negotiations.

According to El País, PP veterans would be planning to make way for new faces in the party:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432658688_365684.html

Quote
One PP veteran, Juan Vicente Herrera, who has been the regional premier of Castilla y León for the last 11 years, confessed on the radio network Onda Cero that he is considering resigning, and suggested that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should do the same (...)

Tomorrow I'll post the map of Barcelona.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 05:33:02 AM
()

Provisional results in Barcelona:

Barcelona en Comú-Entesa (BComú) 25.21% (+14,82%) 11 (+6)* councilors

Convergència i Unió (CiU) 22.72% (-6,01%) 10 (-4) councilors

Ciutadans (C’s) 11.05% (+9.11%)  5 (+5) councilors

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya– Moviment D’Esquerres (ERC–MES) 11.01% (+5,42%)  5 (+3) councilors

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) 9,63% (-12.51%) 4 (-7) councilors

Partit Popular (PP) 8.7% (-8,54%)  3 (-6) councilors

Candidatura D’Unitat Popular (CUP) 7,42% (+5.47%)  3 (+3) councilors

BComú wins 6 seats with regard to ICV-EUiA in 2011. In the previous election ERC ran in a list called Unitat per Barcelona allied with SI and Reagrupament, two small separatist parties. Moviment D'Esquerres (MES) is a PSC sovereignist split allied with ERC in this election.

*With regard to ICV-EUiA-Entesa in 2011. Entesa is a trademark registered by ICV and includes BComú and other "popular unity lists" where the Catalan ecosocialists ran. However, "popular unity lists" like Badalona en Comú (assembles Podemos, Procés Constituent and the CUP, but not ICV) are not included in the Entesa banner.

Results in Badalona:

PP 34.21% (+0.73%) 10 (-1) councilors

Badalona en Comú 17.51% (new) 5 (+5) councilors

PSC 14.09% (-12.96%) 4 (-5) councilors

ERC 10.98% (+7.28%) 3 (+3) councilors

CiU 7.94% (-4.61%) 2 (-2) councilors

ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.68% (-2.22%) 2 (-1) councilors

Ciutadans 5.6% (+4.43%) 1 (+1) councilor

Results of the local elections in Catalonia:

CiU 21.49% (-5.63%), PSC 17.06% (-8.07%), ERC 16.39% (+7.41%), ENTESA* 11.78% (+3.35%), PP 7.54% (-5.14%), C's 7.43% (+6.21%), CUP 7.12% (+4.95%)

Despite the disastrous result in Barcelona, PSC was the second party in votes and retains with losses the provincial capitals of Tarragona and Lleida, as well many of the socialist strongholds in the Barcelona metropolitan region (l'Hospitalet, Cornellá, Santa Coloma, Terrassa). PP came first in Badalona, although Xavier García Albiol could be ousted by a coalition of opposition parties (in case they come to an agreement). CiU retains Girona.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 27, 2015, 06:07:58 AM
Mucho has tardado ;)


Anyway, I decided to take a look at the Balearic Islands' political scenario:

So, looking into the minor parties (let's ignore self-evident ones like PSOE, PP, C's or Podemos)

Més per Mallorca: Union of left-wing nationalist forces, associated to political Catalanism, including a former faction of IU in the Islands that split from the main party. It's a coalition of Partit Socialista de Mallorca, Entesa per Mallorca, Iniciativa Verds and Bloc per Felanitx.

Proposta per les Illes (PI): Centre-right regionalist party, founded by former PP and UM (former regionalist centre-to-centre-right party, extremely corrupt) members.

MpM: Similar to Més per Mallorca, but for Minorca.

GxF: Similar to Més and MpM but for Formentera.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: SPQR on May 27, 2015, 06:48:05 AM
Huh,didn't think that Gracia would go to CiU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 09:19:25 AM
Gràcia is the most Catalanist of the Barcelona districts. Even though Vila de Gràcia is traditionally left-leaning (ICV used to poll strongly, ERC as of late), there are neighbourhoods that tend to favour CiU a bit more. In times Gràcia was a popular district, but nowadays its neighbourhoods are middle class (see income map). I suspect there has been certain gentrification in certain areas (should look into that). CiU beats BComú by a slight margin, ERC and the CUP get their best results in the city, while PSC and PP among their worst. Results in Gràcia district were as follows:

CiU 26.64% (-5.87%), BComú 23.89% (+10.83%), ERC 14.17% (+6.48%), CUP 11.67% (+7.91%), C's 7.57% (+6.19%), PSC 6.47% (-10.29%), PP 6.08% (-5.72%)

Traditionally the CiU and PSC vote in Barcelona followed reverse socioeconomic patterns. The richer the neighbourhood, the higher support for CiU and vice versa. Now things are much more complicated*, but still the best districts and neighbourhoods for CiU are the ones with the higher income (Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, Les Corts), while PSC does better in deprived areas which received immigration from other Spanish regions in past decades (Nou Barris, among others). The bad news for socialists is that they have lost the catalanista middle class and that their traditional base of support in the poorer city neighbourhoods switched to BComú and other parties to a lesser extent. Note that PP and C's patterns by district are very similar (higher support in the socio-economic extremes) and opposed to ERC and CUP patterns. BComú and PSC patterns are similar to each other, with the caveat that Ciutat Vella is the best district for BComú and Nou Barris the best for PSC.

Family income by neighbourhood in 2012 (100= Barcelona average):

()

*According to historian Joaquim Coll, election results show three dividing lines in Catalonia: territorial, linguistic and socioeconomic. On the one hand, there's a gap between the metropolitan/coastal Catalonia (more abstentionist and less supportive of nationalism) and the inland Catalonia (overwhelmingly nationalist). In the November 9 consultation on independence, inland counties (comarcas) turned out in greater numbers (48% of the roll) and voted massively for the purely separatist option ("yes-yes"), while in metropolitan/coastal counties turnout was only 27% and the "yes-yes" figures lower. As for the linguistic factor, it's correlated with sense of belonging. People who has Spanish as first language prevail in the metropolitan and coastal areas and use to identify themselves equally Spanish and Catalan: they are more loath to independence. People speaking Catalan as first language identify themselves as "more Catalan than Spanish" or "only Catalan": a majority of them support independence. Coll says that "language and origin are key to understand that we are confronted to an identity drive which tries to scale the wall of the plural senses of belonging, invoking a promise of social welfare with a leftist garment (...) by the moment with little success among the Catalans whom mainly speak Spanish and with origins in other parts of Spain" . On the socioeconomic factor, Coll talks about "the true alliance of classes behind the separatist drive in the context of the crisis that we are suffering". Remarks the contrast between two metropolitan municipalities nearby in space but far in socioeconomic composition: Santa Coloma and Sant Cugat del Vallès. Santa Coloma is a low income municipality north of Barcelona (pop 118,000) where PSC won a majority and both CiU and ERC failed to win councilors. Sant Cugat (pop 87,000) is amongst the richest Catalan municipalities. It's separated from Barcelona by the Tibidabo mountain. In Sant Cugat CiU won comfortably and the CUP came second, C's came third while PSC and PP got poor results.
 
"The Truncated Catalonia of Artur Mas" (Catalan)

http://cat.elpais.com/cat/2015/05/20/opinion/1432135472_321275.html

To make things even more complicated, it can be added to that triple divide the surge of BComú in Barcelona (and to a lesser extent the surge of similar lists in other municipalities). The list topped by Ada Colau has made significant inroads in the Barcelona's catalanista electorate, although its main base of support is in the lower income neighbourhoods. The separatist CUP has made inroads in some working-class metro Barcelona municipalities as well.

Results in Santa Coloma de Gramenet:

PSC 40.68% (14 councilors), Som Gramenet (Podemos, CUP) 18.52% (6), C's 11.5% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 7.85% (2), PP 7.77% (2), ERC 4.76% (-), CiU 3.63% (-)

Results in Sant Cugat del Vallès:

CiU 36.97% (11 councilors), CUP 15.2% (4), C's 12.92% (3), ERC-MES 11.21% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.61% (2), PSC 6.47% (1), PP 6.27% (1)

In the Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district (on the Barcelona's side of the Tibidabo) CiU topped the poll (41.49%), C's got its best result coming second (15.48%). In past elections PP used to come second behind CiU; this election came in third (12.39%). BComú got 10.5% and PSC only 4.4%.

In principle, there is an election in Catalonia scheduled on September 27. The defeat of Xavier Trias in Barcelona has been perceived as a setback in the "process" by premier Artur Mas.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Kushahontas on May 27, 2015, 09:48:32 AM
Huh,didn't think that Gracia would go to CiU.

was just about to say...


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 03:26:21 PM
Yolanda Barcina, incumbent premier of Navarre: "The outcome of elections could see Spain resemble pre-Hitler Germany"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/27/inenglish/1432734863_029580.html

Quote
The regional premier of Navarre, Yolanda Barcina, said on Wednesday that the outcome of Sunday’s municipal and regional elections in Spain could derive into a situation similar to pre-Hitler Germany, today’s Venezuela or Argentina under Perón.

In a television interview on the morning show ‘Los Desayunos de TVE,’ Barcina – who is also the leader of Union of the Navarrese People (UPN), a center-right regionalist party with working ties to the Popular Party (PP) – underscored that Barcelona could soon have a mayor “who defends the occupation of private property,” a reference to social activist Ada Colau.

The head of UPN, which has been ruling the Navarre region uninterruptedly since 1996 and the city of Pamplona since 1999, added that “naturally, voters are always right, but we could end up with what happened in Argentina under Perón or what’s happened in Venezuela. This is a change that we as voters will have to reflect upon, to see where we are headed.”

Barcina recommended reading Stefan Zweig’s The World of Yesterday, a famous account of the end of the Austrian-Hungarian empire in the early 20th century.

“Things can change like they changed in Germany before the two world wars, they can change like they changed in Venezuela or Argentina.”

"PP gives blessing to nationwide pacts to keep Podemos from taking power"

Quote
The national leadership of the Popular Party (PP), as well as several high-ranking members of the Spanish government, gave their blessing on Wednesday to a post-electoral strategy in Madrid of seeking pacts with the Socialists (PSOE) and Ciudadanos, with the aim of keeping new anti-austerity group Podemos out of power in City Hall (...)

Apparently, Mariano Rajoy is looking a substitute to Dolores de Cospedal in the post of secretary general of the Popular Party (the number two in the hierarchy behind chairman Rajoy). There's an interesting article in El Mundo about the woman: "Cospedal-Austen: Pride and Prejudice". Dolores de Cospedal adores Elizabeth Bennett, but her story will end worse than in Austen's novel. The failure in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election will dash her dreams of reaching higher heights in national politics (replacing Rajoy, for instance).

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/05/26/5563c67de2704e47128b4593.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 27, 2015, 03:31:45 PM
The PP, it has occurred to me watching these elections, must be the worst major centre-right party in Europe. Possibly worse than the GOP. How can they have the gall to compare anyone to dictators when their party was founded by a member of Franco's cabinet, their rhetoric remains unchanged from the 30's and their internal party democracy is about as flourishing as North Korea's?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 03:48:15 PM
Well, Orban's Fidesz is arguably worse. PP seems not so far from Hungarians, though. To make things more nauseating and aside the reluctance to condemn the Franco's legacy, PP has been financed irregularly since 1990, the very year when Manuel Fraga rebuilt the former Alianza Popular into the present Popular Party. As for Barcina, she's not a PP member properly, although UPN and PP have parallel histories. You know what a terrible mess was the outcome of the election in Navarre. There's going to be an avalanche media noise if Podemos pacts with Bildu. The purple party and Manuela Carmena have been already compared with ETA, in spite of the fact that Carmena was once threatened by ETA as judge of the Supreme Court.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: SPQR on May 28, 2015, 01:46:10 AM
Gràcia is the most Catalanist of the Barcelona districts. Even though Vila de Gràcia is traditionally left-leaning (ICV used to poll strongly, ERC as of late), there are neighbourhoods that tend to favour CiU a bit more.
...
Great post! Thanks for the explanation.
Catalan politics are a true mess. Didn't understand them when I lived in Barcelona,and now with Podemos they seem even more obscure. But you shed some light over them :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 28, 2015, 03:33:51 AM
The results in Barcelona by neighbourhood are available in La Vanguardia. In the Gràcia district BComú came ahead in two of the five neighbourhoods: Vila de Gràcia (BComú 26.5%, CiU 24.7%) and El Coll (BComú 28.5%, CiU 20.1%). CiU came ahead in Vallcarca i els Penitents (BComú 20.4%, CiU 28.4%), La Salut (BComú 21.2%, CiU 28.9%) and Camp d'en Grassot i Gràcia Nova (BComú 21.8%, CiU 28.4%).

()
http://www.lavanguardia.com/vangdata/20150526/54431883852/mapa-interactivo-distribucion-voto-barrios-barcelona.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 28, 2015, 03:36:03 AM
Instead of working on my thesis I did this:

Taken from here (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/25/actualidad/1432563659_920456.html).

The elections of the past May 24th have ended the absolute majorities in the autonomic Parliaments. The division of power, and of seats, has opened a complex process of negotiations. The common elements in every autonomy is that an absolute majority is necessary in the first round [of investiture votes]. In the second round, it is sufficient to obtain more 'yes'es than 'no'es, hence abstention plays a fundamental role, except in Castilla-La Mancha, where in the -unlikely- case of there not being an agreement, the most voted list governs, in this case the PP of Dolores de Cospedal.

Madrid

In Madrid only the populares of Cristina Cifuentes, with 48 parliamentarians, and Ciudadanos, which has 17, can reach an absolute majority, fixed at 65 parliamentarians. A pact between the socialist Ángel Gabilondo and Podemos' candidate, José Manuel López, which would stand on the edge of power, with 64 seats. In order to supplant the PP, which governs Madrid since 1995, the hypothetical scenario would be an agreement between PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos.

The PP's candidate, Cristina Cifuentes will meet next Monday, the 25th, with the heads of the list of Ciudadanos, Ignacio Aguada and of Podemos, José Manuel López. Cifuentes also hopes to also meet with the PSOE's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, although for this meeting there is no date yet.

Castilla-La Mancha

The socialist Emiliano García-Page (14 deputies) has the possibility of supplanting the Government of María Dolores de Cospedal, maybe the most emblematic of the PP, but it requires the supports of the three seats of Podemos, who, however has not guaranteed their support. Cospedal obtained on Sunday 16 seats, one less than the necessary ones to reach the absolute majority.

García-Page and the leader of Podemos, José García Molina, have already spoken on the phone to negotiate the support of the new party to a socialist Government. The regional secretary of Podemos and elected deputy, José García Molina, has hoped that an agreement with the PSOE will be reached "as soon as possible".

Extremadura

The socialist Guillermo Fernández-Vara (30 deputies) won the elections against José Antonio Monago (28) in Extremadura. In order to reach the absolute majority (33 seats), he will need the support of the autonomic leader of Podemos, Álvaro Jaén, who obtained 6 parliamentarians. In the meantime until a decision is reached, it is known that both have a cordial relationship from even before the local and regional elections. The sum of PP and Ciudadanos, which has one autonomic deputy, would not be enough in this community to be able to govern with stability.

The leader of Extremadura's socialists has already spoken on the phone with Podemos and Ciudadanos, in a 'polite conversation' and instends to meet this week although the exact date is yet to be confirmed.

Asturias

In the Principality of Asturias, the sum of PSOE, led by Javier Fernández (14), and Podemos, whose head of list is Emilio León (nine seats) would reach the absolute majority, fixed at 23 seats. This majority would not be reached by a pact between PSOE and Izquierda Unida (5 seats).

The sum of PP (11), Ciudadanos (3) and Foro Asturias (3), the party founded by Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, ads up to 17 parliamentarians.

The president of the PP of Asturias, Mercedes Fernández, has asked Ciudadanos and Foro Asturias their support for her election as president of the Principality. Fernñandez has manifested that she has already held talks to obtain these supports that the president of Foro Asturias, Cristina Coto, has already denied.

Aragón

The parliamentay arithmetic will be even more difficult for socialist Javier Lambán in Aragón, as the Podemos candidate, Pablo Echenique, has already warned him that he also wants to be president and he feels legitimised since he was only one percentage point away from the PSOE's result. In order to supplant Luisa Fernanda Rudi, winners of the elections, requires a pact between PSOE (18 deputies), Podemos (14) and the Chunta Aragonesista (2).

Echenique is yet to set his conditions to the PSOE, but at the very least, they will revolve around the fight against corruption, fiscal proposals and evictions.

The sum of the populares of the incumbent president, Luisa Fernanda Rudi, Ciudadanos and the PAR reach 31 seats, not enough to govern.

Echenique has stated that there have been no contacts yet with Javier Lambán and that to the question as to whether he would stand as candidate to preside Aragón, he has insisted that "at the present moment, I haven't ruled out anything".

Comunidad Valenciana

In order to expel the PP in the Comunidad Valencia requires an agreement between, at least, three parties PSOE (23), Compromís (19) and Podemos (13). They all agree in the need to establish a left-wing programme but the candidates of PSPV-PSOE and of Compromís both maintain their desire to preside the Generalitat.

The sum of seats of PP (31) y Ciudadanos (13) would not reach the absolute majority to govern, which is fixed at 50 deputies.

The secretary of Podemos, Antonio Montiel, is to meet , next Monday, at 10.30, the general secretary of the PSPV, Ximo Puig, as well as Compromís' candidate, Mónica Oltra, to deal with the future Valencian Government "in a three-way meeting".

Navarra

Geroa Bai, led by Uxue Barkos, has obtained nine seats of the 50 that Navarra's parliament has. It could count on the support of EH Bildu ( 8 ) and of Izquierda-Ezkerra (2) but the sum of all three doesn't reach the absolute majority, set at 26 seats. Pablo Iglesias said that Podemos would not pact with Bildu if it didn't condemn ETA's violence. Now they are the key to allow a change in Government.

The other three parties with parliamentary representation, PP, PSOE and the winner UPN don't have the sufficient majority to prevent this change and would not support any agreement hcih requires siding with Bildu.

Geroa Bai and Izquierda-Ezkerra have agreed to work for a "pragmatic accord" in an hour-long meeting held in the Navarrese Parliament.

Baleares

The parliamentary panorama is formed by eight parties. The PP suffered an important loss and obtained twenty seats. The socialist listed obtained 14 and the sum of the latter with Podemos (10) doesn't reach the 30 seats required for an absolute majority. The nationalists of Més per Mallorca and Més per Minorca obtained six and three seats each. The regionalist split of the PP, PI, enters with three deputies, while Ciudadanos obtained 2 and the Grupo por Formentera (GxF) obtained one.

Negotiations will be complex in the Balearic Islands for the socialist Francina Armengol, who has announced she will held talks with Podemos and MÉS for a left-wing government.

Castilla y León

The PP's list obtained 42 seats, one seat away from the absolute majority. The PSOE reached 25. Podemos entered into the autonomic Parliament with 10 seats and Ciudadanos, with five. Meanwhile IU and Leonese People's Union (UPL), obtained one seat each.

The only contact known to have taken place is the one held between the federal coordinator of IU, Cayo Lara on the phone with the federal secretary of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez. The socialists of Castilla y León have not set any kind of 'red line' to negotiate.

La Rioja

The PP also lost the absolute majority in La Rioja, as it only obtained 15 seats in a Parliament of 33. The rest of seats are distributed between PSOE (10), Ciudadanos (4) and Podemos (4).

Sanz, who has been in power for the last 20 years, would have to reach an agreement with Ciudadanos if it wants to obtain an absolute majority. A potential agreement between PSOE and Podemos would not suffice. There haven't been any talks yet.

Murcia

The PP won in Murcia with 22 deputies, one below the 23 required for an absolute majority. PSOE obtained 13 and Podemos six. Ciudadanos got four deputies.

The PP's candidate, Pedo Antonio Sánchez, has not ruled out anything about possible pacts and has extended the offer to negotiate to all parties. "If there is no statesmanship, if governability is not guaranteed, we will have to hold elections again" he has warned. No talks have held yet.

Cantabria

In Cantabria, no party reached the 18 seats needed for an absolute majority. Ignacio Diego's PP reached 13 seats, Miguel Ángel Revilla's PRC got 12 seats and the PSOE of Rosa Eva Díez obtained six. Hence, the three deputies of Podemos or the two of Ciudadanos are they key. The leaders of PRC and of Podemos already held on Wednesday a first meeting to know each other but without dealing with any possible pact of the conditions of the purple party to facilitate a Government led by the regionalist Miguel Ángel Revilla. According to Podemos, the conditions will not be presented only to Revilla and, if Ignacio Diego, also wants to know them, "he'll have them there".

Canarias

In the Canary Islands, the CC-PNC obtained 18 out of 60 seats. The PSOE obtained 15 seats; PP obtained 12; Podemos, 7; Nueva Canarias, 5 and Agricupación Socialista de Gomera (ASG), three.

Coalición Canaria (CC) and PSOE have started today, Thursday the round of negotiations to reach a government pact in the Canary Islands.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 28, 2015, 07:45:25 AM
CyL spokesperson just demanded the resignation of Industry minister Soria. WTF, one defeat and Spain's most monolithic party seems to be collapsing before our very eyes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 29, 2015, 06:08:29 AM
Results by district of the 2015 local elections in the city of Valencia:

()

Partido Popular (PP) 25.71% (-26.83%) y 10 (-10) councilors

Compromís per València 23.28% (+14.25%) y 9 (+6) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 15.38% (new) y 6 (+6) councilors

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 14.07% (-7.69%) y 5 (-3) councilors

València en Comú (VALC) 9.81% (nuevo) y 3 (+3) councilors

Esquerra Unida País Valencià (EUPV) 4.71% (-2.46%) y 0 (-2) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 1.38% (-1.45%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.09% (+0.64%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Highlights.

1) PP's debacle. Figures speak by themselves.

2) Compromís replaces PSOE as the main party of the left in the Valencia City Hall. Joan Ribó (Compromís) will replace Rita Barberá (PP) in the mayoralty, with the support of the socialists and the Podemos outfit.

3) C's and València in Comú get into the Town Hall, while EUPV (the IU's regional branch) fails to reach the 5% threshold and lose its 2 seats.

C's result was particularly strong (although slightly lower than some polls predicted) and it's specially remarkable that they came a very strong second in the Pla del Reial district, one of the PP strongholds in the city, getting more than 25% of the vote. VALC got a result lower than expected, attributable to the unexpectedly high result won by Compromís.


CyL spokesperson just demanded the resignation of Industry minister Soria. WTF, one defeat and Spain's most monolithic party seems to be collapsing before our very eyes.

I know José Manuel Soria pretty well and understand why the premier of Castilla y León dislikes him. It's hard to find someone more arrogant than my fellow countryman. It'd be nice if Soria and Cospedal are swallowed by a black hole. Minister of Education José Ignacio Wert is about to leave his post for "personal reasons" or "family circumstances". Apparently Wert told Rajoy that he wanted to go and the PM asked him to wait until the elections took place. Rajoy may or may not reshuffle the cabinet in a couple of weeks, taking advantage of Wert's departure. Thank you for that summary ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 29, 2015, 07:55:16 AM
If I remember correctly, Wert wants to be Spain's ambassador to the OECD so that gives the perfect excuse for a reshuffle, maybe Montoro will follow suit. That being said, rumour has it that Cospedal will obtain the Education ministry, as a 'honorary' retirement from her post as General Secretary of the PP.

Well yes, but among other amazing things regarding the CyL spokesperson is that he said, that personally, were he to support someone for the mayoralty of Valladolid it would be the candidate from Valladolid toma la Palabra (IU), Saravia, over both the PP and the PSOE candidates. In any case, De La Riva was just indicted for delaying a judicial decision over removing a fence in his Valladolid attic for over a decade, and he won't be able to even be city councilor for the nest 13 months or so. It's all going down so fast, I don't think I had ever checked El Norte de Castilla so often as this week.

EDIT: He just announced he will challenge the decision and that he will remain as mayor en funciones until the 13th until the plenary session of the new city council meets. He also points out he has not been indicted for corruption, I guess that's the only good thing of it, he's not corrupt. Even if his government has been signing contracts until 2019 when they have no right to do it as a caretaker government. Oh and, like in Madrid and every other major city waiting turnover I bet they are burning/shredding more paper than our cities' garbage disposal service can take on.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 29, 2015, 08:13:35 AM
Yes, I forgot that Cospedal might replace Wert in Education. As for De la Riva and according to El Diario, he has been disqualified from sitting as a member of the City Hall, on having been found guilty of a disobedience crime. De la Riva delayed nearly five years the execution of a judgement which forced him to restore the legality in a real estate property. Namely it's the Caja Duero building in Plaza de Zorrilla, in which De la Riva owned an apartment. The regional High Court of Justice ruled that there were several housing irregularities and cancelled a project to refurbish said building.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/alcalde-Valladolid-condenado-desobediencia-concejal_0_393010838.html

As a reminder, De la Riva lost majority in the Sunday's local elections. PSOE, an IU-led coalition and the local Podemos outfit added 15 out of 29 councilors in the City Hall. The three municipal groups agreed on ousting the incumbent mayor. It's not clear if PSOE will govern in minority or IU will enter in a coalition that Podemos won't join. The result was the following:

PP 35.81% (12 councilors), PSOE 23.22% ( 8 ), Toma la Palabra (IU-Equo) 13.39% (4), Sí Se Puede (Podemos) 9.98% (3), C's 7.61% (2).

By the way, IU got a surprisingly strong result in the town of Zamora and given the correlation of forces may win the mayoralty. I ignore the reason why.

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU0849927599_L1.htm?d=5687

In other news, new legal setback for PP in the Bárcenas case:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/29/inenglish/1432889857_823672.html

Quote
The Popular Party (PP) has been dealt a new blow in the “Bárcenas case,” a criminal inquiry into secret party ledgers allegedly reflecting illegal donations, under-the-table payments and a long-running slush fund.

High Court examining judge José de la Mata on Thursday added accounting and electoral crimes to the list of unlawful activities presumably engaged in by the ruling conservatives “between 1990 and at least 2008.” (...)

Pablo Iglesias admits relationship with socialists has changed:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/28/inenglish/1432821438_817486.html

Quote
Pablo Iglesias, leader of the anti-austerity party Podemos, admits that his relationship with Spain’s Socialists (PSOE) has changed and could enter a new phase in the coming weeks.

In a press conference on Thursday, Iglesias said he has observed “revealing gestures indicating that the relationship has changed” on the part of PSOE secretary general Pedro Sánchez.

“It is evident that now Pedro Sánchez is calling me, and before this he wasn’t calling me,” said Iglesias (...)

Iglesias stated recently that Podemos wouldn't join regional coalition governments led by PSOE. Perhaps Aragon would be an exception. There, the list topped by Pablo Echenique came virtually tied with the socialists in popular vote. In any case, Pablo Iglesias and Pedro Sánchez need each other's parties. Socialists need the Podemos support to get their candidates elected in various regional and local investiture sessions.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 30, 2015, 08:45:56 AM
Popular Party's corruption saga continues: the conservative party dismisses a Valencia official arrested on corruption charges:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/29/inenglish/1432910939_560122.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Friday removed his delegate in the Valencia region from office, just hours after the latter’s arrest on corruption charges.

Serafín Castellano is suspected of involvement in embezzlement, breach of public duty and bribing public officials in connection with public contracts awarded while he was working for the Valencia regional government, before he accepted his most recent role.

After detaining him in Benissanó (Valencia), law enforcement authorities also raided the Valencia regional health, infrastructure and governance departments and took away a considerable amount of material.

Investigators are looking at regional contracts secured by a company called Avialsa while Castellano was a Valencian government official. Castellano and the president of Avialsa, which provided fire extinguishing services to the regional administration, had been on several game hunts together, and the latter allegedly presented the official with a hunting rifle.

Another business under scrutiny is Taroncher, which obtained a contract to build a forest path in the town of Viver, Castellón province, while Castellano headed up the regional health department.

The arrest sent new shock waves through the Valencian PP, which is still trying to come to grips with the major blow delivered by voters at Sunday’s local and regional elections.

A PP bastion for decades, Valencia has been the focus of a multitude of egregious corruption cases that often made world headlines. Three weeks ago, the head of the Valencia provincial authority, Alfonso Rus, was stripped of his post in connection with illegal commissions accepted in exchange for contracts (...)

Mariano Rajoy says before a businessmen audience in Sitges (Barcelona) that"we have to change things", but not on economic policies. Rajoy attributed bad election results to corruption and the "constant hammering" of disturbing news in TV, because PM thinks that his party has been treated unfairly by critic journalists. Rajoy talked about the "problems" to bring the wonders of the economic recovery to people, as well he considers that they had been lacking an explanation for measures like brutal VAT increases. "It is time to lowering taxes", told Rajoy to the select audience.

Paul Krugman says that just a few days ago Very Serious Europeans took Spain as an example of big success, a vindication of the austerity programme. Obviously, Spanish people disagrees.

This news surfaced days before the election: "Inequality between rich and poor has hit record highs, OECD warns"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432203309_060148.html

Quote
Inequality between the rich and the poor has reached its highest level in certain countries since the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began keeping records 30 years ago.

The crisis has widened this gap in economies such as Spain’s, due to, among other factors, higher taxation and social spending cuts.

A new report entitled In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All shows that “wealth is even more concentrated at the top than income, exacerbating the overall disadvantage of low-income households.” The study is based on data from the 34 countries that make up the OECD, which is an international economic organization aimed at stimulating economic progress and world trade. Among the 34 members are 21 of the 28 European Union states, as well as the US, Mexico, Japan, Australia and South Korea.

In 2012, the bottom 40% owned only 3% of total household wealth in the 18 OECD countries with comparable data. By contrast, the top 10% controlled half of all total household wealth and the wealthiest 1% owned 18%,” says the report.

In Spain, household income dropped an average annual 3.5% between 2007 and 2011, similar to the figures for Ireland and Iceland.

Meanwhile, the bottom 10% of poor Spanish homes lost average annual income of 13% over the same period, while the 10% wealthiest only lost 1.5%.


Pre-tax inequality levels had been stable before the crisis, but soared with the economic downturn and continue to grow despite a slight recovery, says the OECD. This is because of high jobless rates and tax adjustments that have affected unemployment benefits, education and investment. This trend is visible in Spain, Greece and Ireland.

In Spain, there have been additional measures adding to this growing inequality. Fiscal consolidation raised taxes on income and spending (in 2011 and 2013), while social cuts in 2013 affected the lower earners.

A rise in temporary jobs and wage differences between men and women also played a role. In this case, the worst performers are Germany, Mexico and Spain.

As a result, poverty has increased between 2007 and 2011. Across all OECD countries, the population below the poverty line grew from 1% to 9.4%. In Spain, that figure is an alarming 18%, nearly twice as much as before the crisis. And it is often youngsters, not the elderly, who are more likely to fall into poverty.

OECD report: "In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All"

http://www.oecd.org/social/in-it-together-why-less-inequality-benefits-all-9789264235120-en.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2015, 10:19:35 AM
Seville 2015: local election results by district.

()

Provisional results:

Partido Popular (PP) 33.08% (-16.23%) 12 (-8) councilors

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 32.14% (+2.69%)  11 (=) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 9.3% (new)  3 (+3) councilors

Participa Sevilla 9.01% (new)  3 (+3) councilors

Izquierda Unida-Convocatoria por Andalucía (IULV-CA) 5.97% (-1.18%) 2 (=) councilors

Ganemos Sevilla 4.13% (new) 0 councilors

Partido Andalucista (PA) 1.41% (-3.37%) 0 (sc) councilors

Equo 1,04% (-0.17%) 0 (nc) councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.02% (+0.6%)  0 (nc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 0.84% (-2.41%) y 0 (nc) councilors

There was a terrible mess of "popular unity lists" in the Andalusian capital. Finally Podemos endorsed the Participa Sevilla list, which won 3 councilors in the City Hall. IU ran in its own and kept 2 councilors. Some IU dissidents submitted a list called Ganemos Sevilla , which failed to win seats but splitted the vote in the left and created a considerable confusion. Finally, Equo ecologists ran their own list.

Probably Juan Espadas (PSOE) will replace Juan Ignacio Zoido (PP) in the mayoralty.

PP will likely hold the mayoralty in Málaga, the second largest Andalusian city. Conservatives might hold Granada, Almería and Jaén as well, propped up by C's. However, PP is about to lose Córdoba if opposition parties join forces. PSOE came first in Huelva at the expense of PP. Cádiz will go likely to Podemos. The candidate of the Podemos outfit in Cádiz is José María González Santos, aka 'Kichi'. He is the partner of Teresa Rodríguez, the Podemos leader in Andalusia.

Málaga (31 councilors): PP 36.4% (13), PSOE 26.2% (9), Málaga Ahora 13.3% (4), C's 10.3% (3), IU 7.4% (2).

Córdoba (29 councilors): PP 34.4% (11), PSOE 20.5% (7), Ganemos 12.5% (4), IU 12% (4), C's 8.6% (2), Unión Cordobesa 5.6% (1)

Granada (29 councilors): PP 35.4% (11), PSOE 25.9% ( 8 ), C's 14% (4), Vamos Granada 12.7% (3), IU 5.8% (1)

Almería (27 councilors): PP 40.4% (13), PSOE 27% (9), C's 10% (3), IU 7% (2), Ahora Almería 3.7% (-), Ganemos 3.7% (-). Two "popular unity lists" competing against each other with tragic consequences.

Cádiz (27 councilors): PP 33.7% (10), Por Cádiz Sí Se Puede 28% ( 8 ), PSOE 17.4% (4), IU 8.4% (2), C's 7.1% (2)

Out of the provincial capitals, PP might lose Jerez and the situation in Marbella is unclear.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 03, 2015, 06:36:26 AM
Zaragoza 2015: local election results by district.

()

Provisional results:

Partido Popular (PP) 26.88% (-14.38%)  10 (-5) councilors

Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 24.57% (+16.15%)  9 (+6) councilors*

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 18.65% (-8,49%)  6 (-4) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 12.29% (new)  4 (+4) councilors

Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) 6.78% (-2.46%)  2 (-1) councilors

Partido Aragonés (PAR) 2.82% (-1.72%) y 0 (sc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 1.51% (-2.07%)  0 (sc) councilors

Escaños en Blanco (EB) 1.36% (new)  0 councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.18% (+0.85%)  0 (sc) councilors

*With regard to IU and Ecolo-Verdes en 2011. Zaragoza en Común rallies Podemos, IU, Equo and other parties, as well social movements, independents, etc.

Incumbent mayor is Juan Alberto Belloch (PSOE), a judge who was minister of Interior and Justice in mid 90s. Belloch was elected mayor with the support of IU and the Aragonese Union (CHA); he didn't seek reelection. In all likelihood next mayor will be lawyer and human rights activist Pedro Santisteve (ZGZ).

Regional election results in the municipality of Zaragoza (Aragon):

PP 27.1%, Podemos 24.12%, PSOE 17.17%, , C’s 11.38%, CHA 5.28%, IU 5.06%, PAR 3.69%.

If I have time I'll post some regional election maps from next weekend on, regardless if you care or not and only because it's more funny sharing that kind of stuff.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: SPQR on June 03, 2015, 07:09:57 AM
Kinda surprising also how CiU won in Sant Antoni (by very little, admiteddly), since it's much more similar to Raval than to Eixample.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Zanas on June 03, 2015, 08:55:26 AM
I at least find these very instructing, and ask you to keep posting them, Velasco! ;)

I will come up with a few questions about the near future shortly.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 04, 2015, 05:17:50 PM
Kinda surprising also how CiU won in Sant Antoni (by very little, admiteddly), since it's much more similar to Raval than to Eixample.

I've just checked the Sant Antoni results in the EP 2014 elections and ERC came ahead in that neighbourhood getting 25.8% to CiU's 24.5%. In this local election ERC got nearly a half of that percentage. CiU uses to win in all of l'Eixample, although Sant Antoni has a lower income than the central Eixample neighbourhoods. I think that CiU came ahead PSC in the 2011 general election (I can check it, but I'm sure of that). I know little about that place, but it appears more nationalistic than El Raval... and a bit less than Sants, that is located west of Sant Antoni. ERC and CUP got 13.4% and 9.2% respectively in Sant Antoni to 14.7% and 10.7% in Sants. 

http://lameva.barcelona.cat/eixample/ca/home/el-barri-de-sant-antoni

I at least find these very instructing, and ask you to keep posting them, Velasco! ;)

I will come up with a few questions about the near future shortly.

Thanks. In any case I won't have time to post regularly. As for the maps, I made already the islands (Balearic and Canaries) but I want to post Madrid first. I hope I can finish Valencia.

Albert Rivera held private meetings with Mariano Rajoy and Pedro Sánchez while Pablo Iglesias met with Sánchez (it may sound strange, but they didn't know each other personally) but wasn't invited by Rajoy. A couple of members of the Madrid regional government have resigned after having been involved in the investigation of the Púnica case, another PP corruption affair. The most relevant is Lucía Figar, who was holding the education portfolio and has a close relationship with Esperanza Aguirre. Those last minute resignations have been interpreted as a gesture to get the C's support in the investiture of Cristina Cifuentes as premier.

Pablo Iglesias met with Mónica Oltra from Compromís. Podemos leader would prefer Oltra rather than the PSOE candidate Ximo Puig as regional premier in Valencia; Oltra herself says that's not an indispensable condition, but she doesn't renounce to head the government. Apparently they talked about the possibility of running together Podemos and Compromís in the next general election, albeit vaguely and without reaching a decision.



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 06, 2015, 03:47:59 PM
Socialists municipal heatmap

()

Popular Party heatmap

()

Overall:

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 07, 2015, 05:34:23 AM
Bilbao 2015: local election results by district: ()

Results (final):

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea– Partido Nacionalista Vasco (EAJ–PNV) 39.34% (-4.82%) 13 (-2) councilors

Euskal Herria Bildu (EH BILDU) 14.04% (-0.17%) 4 (=) councilors

Partido Socialista de Euskadi–Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE–EE) 11.97%  (-1.48%) 4 (=) councilors

Partido Popular (PP) 11.86% (-5.38%) 4 (-2) councilors

Udalberri-Bilbao en Común 8.47% (+3.98%)* 2 (+2) councilors

Ganemos Sí Se Puede-Goazen 6.53% (new) 2 (+2) councilors

Ciudadanos (C's) 3.52% (new)  0 councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.2% (+0.72%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 0.84% (-0.24%) y 0 (nc) councilors

*Udalberri includes Podemos, IU and Equo among others. Ganemos (or "let's win") is a list promoted by some Podemos dissidents in Bilbao, whom have been accused by the party of "swindle and cheat" voters. The 'Ganemos' people say they are loyal to the "original spirit" of Podemos.

Podemos performed better in the elections for the Juntas Generales de Bizkaia, that is to say the Biscay provincial legislature. Results in Bilbao municipality were:

EAJ-PNV 37.57%, Podemos 15.37%, EH Bildu 13.67%, PP 12.15%, PSE-EE (PSOE) 12.1%, C’s 3.55%, Irabazi (IU, Equo) 3.37%, PACMA 0.94%, UPyD 0.77%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Simfan34 on June 07, 2015, 03:01:49 PM
The PP, it has occurred to me watching these elections, must be the worst major centre-right party in Europe. Possibly worse than the GOP. How can they have the gall to compare anyone to dictators when their party was founded by a member of Franco's cabinet, their rhetoric remains unchanged from the 30's and their internal party democracy is about as flourishing as North Korea's?

There is a reason the Francoist parties don't get much of the vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 08, 2015, 01:03:52 PM
Madrid 2015: leading party by municipality/district in the regional elections.

()

Results in the municipality of Madrid (bordered in yellow) are shown by municipal district.

Total regional results:

http://resultados2015.madrid.org/12AU/DAU12999CM_L1.htm

Among the highlights, many people in the city of Madrid splitted their vote in the local and regional elections between candidates Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) and Ángel Gabilondo (PSOE). Ahora Madrid got 519.2 thousand votes in the municipal elections and Podemos 287.6 thousand in the regional elections; PSOE 249.2k and 416.8k respectively; IU 27.8k and 67.7k On the other hand, PP regional candidate Cristina Cifuentes got more votes (568.8 thousand) in the capital than Esperanza Aguirre (563.3 thousand). PP losses in the city of Madrid are strongly correlated with income (particularly strong in districts like Villaverde, Villa de Vallecas or Usera), according to this analysis:

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/mirada-resultados_6_392020810.html

In the municipalities of the so-called 'red belt' south of Madrid PSOE came first, while Podemos performed strongly. Examples: Getafe (PSOE 30%, PP 25.7%, Podemos 23.1%, C's 9.9%), Leganés (PSOE 29.7%, PP 22.9%, Podemos 22.6%, C's 10.1%). West of Madrid there were similar results in working-class municipalities like Coslada and San Fernando. In Alcalá de Henares PP came a weak first (27.4%), followed by PSOE (26.4%), Podemos (20.3%) and C's (13.4%). SW of Madrid PP came first in Móstoles (PP 28.9%, PSOE 26.8%, Podemos 22.8%, C's 10.5%) and Alcorcón (PP 29.9%, PSOE 27.2%, Podemos 20.6%). In high income municipalities west of Madrid PP came obviously in first place, and in many cases C's was the second party. Examples: Las Rozas (PP 41.4%, C's 19.4%, PSOE 16.9%, Podemos 11.6%) and Majadahonda (PP 44.9%, C's 17.9%, PSOE 16.9%, Podemos 10.7%). Podemos came first in a couple of municipalities of symbolic value: Parla (SW of Madrid) and Rivas-Vaciamadrid (SE). Parla was the fiefdom of Tomás Gomez, the former leader of the PSOE regional branch who was dethroned by Pedro Sánchez and replaced by independent Ángel Gabilondo as candidate. Rivas is the main IU stronghold in the region; in the municipal elections IU managed to come first ahead the local Podemos outfit, which placed a close second.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on June 09, 2015, 08:41:47 AM
Historic overview:

So, I got bored and I did the results of the local elections and the regional elections since the start of democracy in Spain. It was an easy affair, it is all very static. There are some things going on under the map that aren't seen because it only shows the most voted party for each government, which is not necessarily the most voted party within a region or the party that holds the post of President/Premier/Lehendakari or whatever. That is especially important for the Canary Islands, where the CC has a policy of either picking PP or PSOE as their junior partners depending on the term but themselves being on top. I might refine the map later to differentiate between minority/coalition and absolute majority single-party governments.

The map does not show the occasions when, especially with the CDS, a junior party shifts its support from AP/CP/PP to PSOE or vice versa and hence the executive changes mid-legislature. I'm still trying to find a more nice-looking way of showing it.

Because not all the regional elections happen at the same time (usually Galicia, Basque Country, Catalonia and Andalucia have their own legislative periods), I had to condense it all.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 09, 2015, 01:25:57 PM
Nice work, Nanwe. Perhaps you have to clarify that square symbols represent regional capitals and small circles provincial capitals. Obviously in the 2015 map the symbols in purple represent capitals where "popular unity lists" backed by Podemos are going to govern: Ahora Madrid, Barcelona en Comú, Zaragoza en Común, Marea Atlántica or Somos Oviedo.

In the news, Ciudadanos decided to support Susana Díaz in Andalusia. PSOE and C's have signed three documents required by the orange party as condition to unlock the investiture of the socialist candidate. Documents include a Decalogue of measures against corruption and for "democratic regeneration", as well economic and welfare safeguards.

Meanwhile, PP and C's agreed a "smooth path to Madrid premiership".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/09/inenglish/1433859811_936345.html

Quote
The Madrid regional government began its 10th legislature on Tuesday with two new parties – Podemos and Ciudadanos – represented and the conservative Popular Party without an absolute majority in the assembly for the first time in 20 years.

If PP candidate Cristina Cifuentes finally does get to become regional premier, after reportedly reaching a deal with Ciudadanos on Monday, she will have to govern by seeking out alliances with other parties in a scenario very different from the one her group has been used to in previous years.

In order to bring Cifuentes closer to the premiership, the PP on Monday agreed to hand Ciudadanos the vice-speaker’s seat on the regional parliamentary assembly, the top internal body, where it had not been entitled to a place in its own right.

The PSOE and Podemos have interpreted the move as a prior step towards Cifuentes’ investiture, but the PP candidate insisted that the negotiations had only just begun. “It’s not that the agreement is in its early stages, it’s that we have barely started to talk. Yesterday’s meeting was basically about finalizing the make-up of the parliamentary assembly,” Cifuentes said.

There's an interesting article in Spanish about the "Zamora miracle". Zamora is a conservative-leaning provincial capital in Castile and León that is about to be governed by IU:

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/06/08/actualidad/1433767925_755097.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 10, 2015, 06:41:30 AM
Balearic Islands: leading party by municipality in the 2015 regional elections.

()

Full results:

http://www.resultatseleccions2015.caib.es/04AU/DAU04999CM_L2.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 11, 2015, 01:57:47 AM
Canary Islands: leading party by municipality in the 2015 regional elections.

()

Full results:

http://elecciones2015.gobcan.es/05AU/DAU05999CM_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 11, 2015, 01:59:42 AM
Asturias:

()

Full results:

http://www.resultadoselecciones2015.asturias.es/03AU/DAU03999CM_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2015, 03:25:26 AM
Today El País entitles: "Leftist governments take shape in cities and regions across Spain"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/12/inenglish/1434103988_673495.html

Quote
Spain’s swing to the left, evidenced by the results of the municipal and regional elections of May 24, is beginning to take shape.

Following a flurry of cross-party negotiations triggered by the fragmented political scenario that emerged from the ballot, at least three major Spanish cities will now be run by leftist forces after decades of conservative rule.

The Andalusian city of Cádiz is set to get a mayor from Por Cádiz Sí Se Puede, a bloc whose members include the anti-austerity party Podemos. After securing the support of the Socialists, José María González Santos, aka Kichi, will oust the long-serving Teófila Martínez , of the Popular Party (PP), who had enjoyed five absolute majorities over the last 20 years.

Martínez still managed to get the most votes this time around, earning her party 10 council seats, but the Socialists chose to add their five councilors to the Podemos brand’s eight. The investiture deal will not be carried forward into a ruling coalition, however, as the Socialists have said they will remain in the opposition.

In the city of Valencia, acting mayor Rita Barberá of the PP on Friday announced she was giving up her councilor’s seat in a move that saves her from handing the baton over to Joan Ribó, of the regional party Compromís, who is set to become the new mayor with support from the Socialists and Valencia en Comú. Barberá, a controversial figure, had been mayor for over two decades.

Meanwhile, in Madrid, Manuela Carmena of Ahora Madrid, another newly formed, Podemos-supported bloc, is set to become the next mayor of the Spanish capital after clinching a deal with the local Socialists.

In this case as well, the Socialists will remain in the opposition after helping Carmena into the mayor’s seat. But they stand to gain some extra power since Carmena plans to bolster the city council’s powers at the expense of the local executive.

Details of the deal will be revealed later on Friday, but what is clear is that the PP is losing its grip over Madrid after 24 years of uninterrupted rule. Here as well, the conservative candidate, Esperanza Aguirre, had managed a narrow victory at the polls, but the Ahora Madrid-Socialist alliance adds more councilors (...)

In short, four of the five most important Spanish cities will be governed by leftist "citizen platforms" or forces of the "alternative left": Madrid (Ahora Madrid), Barcelona (BComú), Zaragoza (ZGZ) and Valencia (Compromís). The remaining city is Seville, that will go for PSOE with the support of the Podemos local outfit and IU. All those cities were governed by PP except Barcelona, which had a CiU mayor.

Besides, A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela in Galicia will be governed by "popular unity lists" with the support of the socialists. PSOE will govern Vigo with a majority (Abel Caballero won a crushing victory on May 24) and Lugo with the support of the left.

However, in Asturias Podemos and PSOE didn't reach agreements to govern the cities Gijón and Oviedo. Regional premier Javier Fernández (PSOE) didn't want to accept that socialists support the Somos Oviedo candidate Ana Taboada, because the Podemos outfit in Gijón voted in assembly withdrawing support to the local socialist candidate. Unless they come to an agreement, PP and the FAC will hold respectively Oviedo and Gijón, on having been their lists the most voted in the respective local elections.

In the Basque Country, the mayoralty of Vitoria will go from PP to PNV. Bildu will vote for Gorka Urtaran (PNV) to replace Javier Maroto (PP); although there's no formal agreement between Bildu and PNV-PSOE. On election night PP won 9 councilors, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5 and PSOE 4 councilors. EH Bildu will allow PNV to govern the Diputación of Álava, so the jeltzales will hold the three provinces with their respective capitals. PNV won the local election in San Sebastián and the Gipuzkoa provincial election to EH Bildu on May 24.

The map of likely mayoralties in provincial capitals stands as follows:

()

Key: blue=PP, red=PSOE, purple="citizen platforms", green=PNV, yellow=CiU, grey="others". Provincial capitals going to "others" are: Valencia (Compromís), Palma de Mallorca (PSOE-MÉS), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (CC), Pamplona (EH BILDU), Pontevedra (BNG) and Zamora (IU). Oviedo (Asturias) is left in white because it's uncertain (PP or Somos Oviedo). Actually, there is no big difference with the map posted by Nanwe some days ago.

As for ongoing talks to form regional governments:

Quote
At the regional level, the PP is bracing to lose another major conservative stronghold: the Valencian region will be ruled by a leftist coalition comprising the Socialists, Podemos and the regional party Compromís.

On Thursday, their leaders signed a document pledging to “end the social emergency situation and lay down the foundations for a new Valencia.”

The deal does not specify who will be the regional premier yet. “Soon there will be a government of change,” said Mónica Oltra, of Compromís. The Socialist Ximo Puig added that the future Valencian government “will be a shared government, by all and for all.”

And in Andalusia, which held its own early regional elections on March 22 but had been premier-less ever since, the Socialist Susana Díaz finally got herself invested on Thursday after securing the support of emerging party Ciudadanos.

“I extend my hand to all parties, to those who voted for me and to those who did not,” she said following the investiture session.

Díaz added that there is “a lot of work to do” after more than two months of political gridlock. Some of her earliest measures will deal with university grants and housing policy.


As said previously, C's is about to support the investiture of Cristina Cifuentes (PP) in the region of Madrid.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 13, 2015, 03:30:39 AM
Is thee any major municipality which still has a majority government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2015, 04:18:59 AM
Is thee any major municipality which still has a majority government.

I guess you mean majorities held by a single party and not coalition governments, right? Among municipalities above 250,000 people, I only recall Vigo (PSOE). Probably I could find some single party majorities in municipalities between 100,000 and 250,000. As for provincial or regional capitals I recall Ceuta (PP) and Soria (PSOE). Neither of those two is a big city.

Right now, there is a live stream covering the formation of city councils. Manuela Carmena's investiture has just begun. Ada Colau will count in her investiture  with the affirmative vote of ERC, PSC and the CUP, so she will be elected with a majority. However, Colau won't govern in coalition and BComú only has 11 out of 41 councilors. She will have to negotiate initiatives with the different opposition parties.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2015, 04:21:27 PM
Mayors in provincial and regional capitals (and a handful of important towns/cities) after this morning:

Region of Madrid: Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) elected Mayor of Madrid with the support of PSOE. PP councilors voted for Esperanza Aguirre and C's councilors for Begoña Villacís. Pablo Iglesias and Podemos' top members attended the opening session of the Madrid City Council. The nomination of Carmena was cheered by some people in the audience: "¡Sí se puede!" ("yes, it can be done").

Catalonia:

Ada Colau (BComú) was proclaimed Mayor of Barcelona with the support of 21 out of 41 councilors, including 10 from BComú, 5 from ERC, 4 from the PSC and 1 (out of 3) from the CUP. Colau said her nomination is the proof that "the impossible is possible".

Carles Puigdemont (CiU) was elected Mayor of Girona, Àngel Ros (PSC) Mayor of Lleida and Josep Félix Ballesteros (PSC) Mayor of Tarragona. All of them were elected without a majority and proclaimed mayors because their respective lists placed first in the elections.

Region of Valencia:

Joan Ribó (Compromís) elected Mayor of Valencia with the support of PSOE and València en Comú (Podemos). Former mayor Rita Barberá (PP) resigned yesterday as member of the City Council and didn't attend the proclamation of the new mayor.

In Alicante Gabriel Echávarri (PSOE) will govern in coalition with Guanyar Alacant (Podemos, IU and others) and Compromís. Castellón will be governed by Amparo Marco (PSOE) with the support of Compromís and Castelló en Moviment.

Andalusia:

Juan Espadas (PSOE) elected Mayor of Seville with the support of Podemos and IU.

Francisco de la Torre (PP) elected Mayor of Málaga with the support of C's.

In Almería the local branch of C's agreed with socialists on voting the PSOE candidate, but the party's national executive rectified that decision and orange councilors finally abstained, so Juan Carlos Pérez Navas (PP) was elected mayor.

PSOE gets the mayoralty of Córdoba for the first time in the present democratic period (the city has been governed previously by PCE, IU and PP). Socialist candidate Isabel Ambrosio was supported by IU and the Podemos outfit.

The abstention of the 4 C's councilors allowed the investiture of José Torres Hurtado (PP) as Mayor of Granada, who got 11 votes from his municipal group. The socialist candidate got the votes of PSOE and Vamos Granada (Podemos) totalling 11 councilors as well. The IU councilor voted for himself. PP gets the mayoralty on having been the list with the most votes in the elections.

José María González (Podemos) replaces Teófila Martínez (PP) as Mayor of Cádiz with the support of PSOE ad IU.

Gabriel Cruz (PSOE) elected Mayor of Huelva.

José Enrique Fernández Moya (PP) elected Mayor of Jaén; C's councilors abstained.

In Marbella José Bernal (PSOE) replaces Ángeles Muñoz (PP) in the mayoralty. PP fell short from a majority by only one seat. Bernal was supported by the rest of forces represented in the City Hall (PSOE, IU, Podemos and independents).

Aragon:

Criminal lawyer Pedro Santisteve (Zaragoza en Común) was proclaimed Mayor of Zaragoza with the support of PSOE and the centre-left regionalist CHA. PSOE gets the mayoralty of Huesca, while PP holds Teruel.

Asturias:

Carmen Moriyon (FAC) was proclaimed Mayor of Gijón without a majority. PSOE and the Podemos outfit Xixón Sí Puede (XSP) failed to reach an agreement in that city. As said before, XSP voted in assembly not supporting the socialists.

The big surprise was the proclamation of Wenceslao López (PSOE) as Mayor of Oviedo. Socialists only placed third behind PP and Somos Oviedo (Podemos). The Podemos outfit led by Ana Taboada, PSOE and IU reached a previous agreement to govern. However, PSOE withdrew support to Taboada in retaliation for events in Gijón. Both Podemos and IU decided to back unilaterally the PSOE candidate in order to prevent that PP holds the mayoralty.

Balearic Islands:

PSOE and the eco-nationalist MÉS will replace each other in the mayoralty of Palma de Mallorca. The socialist candidate was elected with the support of MÉS and Som Palma (Podemos) and will govern until 2017. MÉS will get the mayoralty in the 2017-2019 period. This kind of agreements is known in Spain as "time sharing mayoralties". PSOE gets the mayoralty of Eivissa (the official name of Ibiza).

Canaries:

Augusto Hidalgo (PSOE) proclaimed Mayor of Las Palmas with the support of the local Podemos outfit and the centre-left regionalist New Canaries. The Canary Coalition (CC) holds the mayoralty of Santa Cruz the Tenerife with the support of PP. Socialists didn't like that move, because CC and PSOE are negotiating a coalition government in the Canary Islands and the deal includes supporting each other's lists in the different municipalities.

Cantabria:

Ïñigo de la Serna (PP) reelected Mayor of Santander without a majority.

Castile-La Mancha:

PSOE gets the mayoralties in Toledo and Ciudad Real. PP holds Albacete, Cuenca and Guadalajara.

Castile and León:

Óscar Puente (PSOE) proclaimed Mayor of Valladolid with the support of IU and Podemos. Francisco Guarido (IU) was elected Mayor of Zamora with the support of PSOE; Zamora will be the only provincial capital governed by IU. PP holds Salamanca, Burgos, León and Palencia. PSOE holds Soria with a majority and gets Segovia in minority.

Extremadura:

PP holds the two provincial capitals: Cáceres and Badajoz. Mérida, the regional capital, goes to PSOE.

Galicia:

Xulio Ferreiro, candidate of the Marea Atlántica ("Atlantic Tide", includes the AGE and Podemos), was proclaimed Mayor of A Coruña with the support of PSOE, although Ferreiro wants to govern in minority.

Martiño Noriega (Compostela Aberta) will govern in Santiago de Compostela , the regional capital). Ferrol will be governed by another "popular unity list".

Abel Caballero (PSOE) will govern in Vigo with a comfortable majority. In Lugo Lara Méndez (PSOE) was proclaimed mayor. Méndez was the number two in the list and replaced the top candidate José López Orozco, who was vetoed by leftist forces. Miguel Anxo Fernández Lores (BNG) holds the mayoralty in Pontevedra. PP gets the mayoralty of Ourense in minority, due to the  lack of an alternative majority.

Region of Murcia:

José Ballesta (PP) elected Mayor of Murcia without a majority.

Independent José López elected Mayor of Cartagena with the support of PSOE. López will be replaced by socialist candidate Ana Belén Castejón in 2017. Another "time sharing agreement". PP, C's and the Podemos local outfit will be in the opposition.

La Rioja:

PP holds Logroño without a majority.

Navarre:

Joseba Asirón (EH Bildu) proclaimed Mayor of Pamplona with the support of Geroa Bai (independents and PNV), Aranzadi (Podemos) and IU.

Basque Country:

Juan Mari Aburto (PNV) elected Mayor of Bilbao with the support of PSOE.

Eneko Goia (PNV) elected Mayor of San Sebastián without a majority.

Gorka Urtaran (PNV) elected Mayor of Vitoria with the support of EH Bildu, Podemos and IU-Equo. PNV and PSOE had a previous agreement extended to all the Basque Country, in order to support each party's best placed candidates in the municipalities. However, a PNV councilor didn't support the socialist candidate in Andoain (a town in Gipuzkoa) allowing the proclamation of a Bildu mayor. PSOE withdrew support in Vitoria as retaliation. PNV was the third party behind PP and EH Bildu in the local elections. The Bildu support is not the result of a formal agreement, they voted for the PNV candidate to oust PP's Javier Maroto from the mayoralty.  

PP holds the autonomous city of Ceuta (majority), Opening session was suspended in Melilla due to denounces of alleged fraud in mail vote. PP will likely hold.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 14, 2015, 02:00:02 AM
Valencia 2015: leading party by municipality in the regional elections.

()

The Valencian elections provided the most entertaining results by far. Let's say the Comunidad Valenciana or País Valencià is a diverse region. The end of PP hegemony has brought a fragmented but fascinating landscape.  I made a table with the results in the 20 most populous municipalities here:

https://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/eleccions-a-les-corts-valencianes-2015/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 28, 2015, 09:22:10 AM
I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2015, 11:02:43 AM
I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).

Yes, that happened past week. Sorry for not updating, but it'd be good that someone was paying attention. Thank you for mentioning the issue, CrabCake.

"The end of an era: Catalan nationalist bloc CiU breaks up after 37 years"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/18/inenglish/1434637443_661020.html

Quote
In a historical, game-changing decision for Catalan politics, the two parties that make up Convergence and Union (CiU) are going their separate ways after 37 years of nearly uninterrupted joint rule in the region (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 03, 2015, 08:19:58 AM
The last poll conducted by CEO in Catalonia shows a downward trend in support to independence.  According to that survey 50% would vote "no" in an eventual referendum, while 42.9% would vote "yes" to independence. With regard to the March survey released by the same sociological institute, dependent on Catalan government, "yes" is 1.2% down and "no" increases 2%. On the elections scheduled in September, 58.1% will decide voting position depending on party proposals to confront the crisis, while 21.1% will decide depending on the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. Answers reflect that Artur Mas pretension to call elections as a plebiscite on independence is not getting through. The poll doesn't provide a vote estimation for the next Catalan elections because, according to CEO' s chief Jordi Arguelaguer, the break down of CiU and the reconfiguration in the left make it impossible. ICV and Podemos agreed recently running a join list in September (Joan Coscubiela, ICV deputy in the Spanish Congress, will stand as pre-candidate), as well Pablo Iglesias stated the alliance will work in the next general election.

Link to CEO poll (there's an abstract in English):

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5468&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+2a+onada+2015

CEO released the "direct vote intention", that is raw polling data without further elaboration. In the Catalan elections CiU and ERC are tied at 13.3%, while Podemos comes third at 10.8%. As for the general election, Podemos comes first (18.1%) followed by ERC (13%), PSC (11%) and CiU (10.8%). The poll doesn't ask for CDC and UDC separately, nor asks for the join list between Podemos and ICV.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 07, 2015, 03:55:17 PM
Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 18, 2015, 06:14:28 PM
Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

The Spanish Senate is an irrelevant legislative body and I usually don't pay too much attention. I checked the list of members returned by regions in the Spanish Senate website. The new Andalusian Parliament (elected in March 2015) has appointed 9 senators (PSOE 5, PP 3, Podemos 1)  Apparently the regions which held elections in May haven't elected their representatives. Probably they will be appointed in the next session of the respective regional legislatures, beginning in September.

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?

I haven't been following last polls in detail. Which ones predict a PP-C's majority?

On average, I think the trend doesn't point to a result like that. I'm not sure if Greece will have an impact in the Spanish election (I tend to think that it'd be very limited, in any case).

The Wikipedia poll summary as of July 2015 says that PP is approx. at 26%, PSOE 23%, Podemos 20% and C's around 13%. The Electograph "poll of polls" gives the following result: PP 27.6%, PSOE 24.4%, Podemos 18.9%, C's 12.5%, IU 3.6%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#National

http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

More important will be the repercussion of the next parliamentary election in Catalonia.

CDC (the Artur Mas party), ERC, pro-independence associations and elements of the 'civil society' will assemble a joint list. In case the joint independence list wins the election, which is very likely, the different parties and associations are committed to proclaim independence unilaterally within a period of 6 or 8 months. Probably that declaration of independence will have the support of the left-wing CUP in the next Parliament of Catalonia. The top candidate will be Raül Romeva, formerly in ICV and MEP until 2014. The former spokeswoman of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) Carme Forcadell and Muriel Casals ( from Òmnium Cultural) will be the numbers two and three of that list. Artur Mas will be placed in the fourth place, but he's actually the candidate to be the head of the government. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras will be the number five.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/15/inenglish/1436951774_704766.html

Quote
If secessionist parties win the Catalan regional elections scheduled for September 27, independence could be formally declared six to eight months later.

That is part of the deal that was reached this week by Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), which have decided to run together on a joint pro-sovereignty ticket.

If such a moment arrives, it will mark a “disconnect” or “breaking point” with Spain, according to sources familiar with the negotiation (...)

Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy stated that "there will be no Catalan independence"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/16/inenglish/1437061423_262494.html

Quote
Spain’s prime minister is asking Catalan leader Artur Mas for “prudence, sound judgment, moderation and common sense” in connection with regional elections scheduled for September 27.

“There will be no Catalan independence, and Catalonia is not going to leave Spain or Europe, even though this is what’s being offered to citizens there right now,” said Mariano Rajoy, of the center-right Popular Party (PP) (...)

At this point everything points to the continuation of the paralysis until the next Spanish election takes place and a new administration takes office earlier next year.

You can check last polls for the Catalan elections here:

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Cat

Feedback/La Vanguardia (July 2015)

CDC 22% (32-34 seats), Catalunya, sí que es pot (CSP= Podemos+ ICV+EUiA) 16.5% (20-22), C's 16% (22), ERC 15% (22), PSC 9.6% (13), PP 7.3% (9-10), CUP 7% (9-10), UDC 4.2% (3-6).

*A joint list including all pro-independence forces would get 46.7%, according to Feedback. However, that assumption is not realistic because the CUP will run in its own.

GAPS / Òmnium Cultural (July 2015)

Joint list (CDC-ERC) 32% (52 seats), CSP 20% (26), C's 16% (20), PSC 9% (12), PP 9% (12), CUP 8% (10), UDC 4% (3).

GESOP/El Periódico (June 2015)

CDC 22.4% (33-35 seats), Podemos+ICV+EUiA+Procés Constituent 22.4% (30-31), C's 14.9% (19-20), ERC 12.9% (19-20), CUP 8.2% (11-12), PSC 7% (8-9), PP 6% (6-7), UDC 4.6% (6-7)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: FredLindq on July 19, 2015, 07:44:32 AM
Could somone update me on the election of new regional presidents!


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 19, 2015, 11:45:57 AM
OK, let's try a brief summary of the new regional governments.

Aragon:: Javier Lambán (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos, the Aragonese Union (CHA) and IU, totalling 35 votes. PP, C's and the Aragonese Party (PAR) voted against the investiture, totalling 32 votes. Notably, C's spokeswoman Susana Gaspar deemed the deal between leftist forces in the regional legislature as a "pact with the Devil" The negotiation was difficult because Pablo Echenique (Podemos) felt vindicated to be premier, given that the purple party came only 1% behind the socialists in the regional election. Lambán heads a minority government which has 9 ministers (8 from PSOE and 1 from CHA). The new administration needs the support of Podemos and IU to pass legislation.

Asturias: Javier Fernández (PSOE), incumbent since 2012, is seeking to continue as regional premier. A deal between PSOE and Podemos was the only option for Fernández to get a majority in the investiture. However, the socialists and the purple party have a poor relationship in the region. Podemos rejected to vote for the socialist candidate for Mayor of Gijón, because of his involvement in suspected irregularities in the management of the port of El Musel. Gijón is the most populated city in the region; the mayoralty was retained by the right-wing regionalist FAC in minority. PSOE reached an agreement with the IU regional branch led by Gaspar Llamazares, which was approved by the IU membership today. The deal doesn't imply a coalition government; both parties agreed on specific measures (electoral reform, transparency law and a commission of inquiry on El Musel). PSOE (14) and IU (5) fall short from a majority in the 45 member regional legislature. Javier Fernández could be elected premier in a second vote, providing that Podemos (9) and C's (3) abstain. Rival candidate Mercedes Fernández (PP) only counts with the support of her party (11 seats) and Foro Asturias (FAC, 3 seats). The first investiture vote will take place this upcoming week.  

Balearic Islands: Francina Armengol (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos and MÉS, a left-wing catalanist party. Podemos didn't join the regional government, which is comprised by 11 members from PSOE and MÉS. PSOE holds the premiership and gets 6 cabinet members, while MÉS gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Biel Barceló.

Canary Islands: Fernando Clavijo (CC) heads a coalition government with PSOE. CC gets the premiership and 6 cabinet members; PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Patricia Hernández. PSOE holds the presidency of the regional parliament.

Cantabria: Miguel Ángel Revilla of the Cantabria Regionalist Party (PRC) was elected Premier with the support of PSOE and the abstention of Podemos. The regional coalition government has 9 members: PRC gets the premiership and 4 cabinet members, PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Eva Díaz Tezanos.

Castile and León: Juan Vicente Herrera (PP) was reelected Premier in a second vote with the support of his party (42 seats) and the abstention of C's (5). PSOE (25), Podemos (10), IU (1) and the León regionalist UPyL (1) voted against the investiture. PP will govern in minority, trying to reach agreements on specific measures with C's in order to pass legislation.

Castile-La Mancha: Emiliano García-Page (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of his party (15 seats) and Podemos (2). PP (16) voted against the investiture. García-Page, a former Mayor of Toledo, will govern in minority replacing María Dolores de Cospedal, the powerful and controversial woman who remains as secretary general of PP.

Extremadura: Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE) was proclaimed Premier with the support of his party (30 seats) and Podemos (6). PP (28) and C's (1) abstained. In the investiture, the Podemos spokesman said that Fernández Vara's discourse was increasingly resembling theirs, stating that Podemos will support the new minority government as long as it's committed with "the defence of the civil rights against the austerity policy" of the Spanish government. Fernández Vara promised that Extremadura will be the first region "free of evictions".

Madrid: Cristina Cifuentes (PP) was elected Premier on June 24 with the support of her party (48 seats) and C's (17). PSOE (37) and Podemos (27) voted against. Cifuentes will govern in minority and C's spokesman Ignacio Aguado warned her that they will be vigilant on the implementation of the 76 point agreement signed between the blue and the orange parties.

Murcia: Pedro Antonio Sánchez (PP) was elected Premier with the support of his party (26 seats) and C's (4). PSOE (13) and Podemos (6) voted against the investiture. PP and C's reached an agreement similar to that in Madrid. The newly elected premier has to face a lawsuit on alleged faults including prevarication, embezzlemen of public funds, fraud against administration and falsification of public documents. Mr Sánchez promised to resign in case he's formally charged.

Navarre: Uxue Barkos (Geroa Bai, independent) will be elected Premier in the investiture session that will take place tomorrow morning. Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU signed a deal on past Friday. According to the signatories, the agreement has a "historical value" and "lays the foundations for change". The new government will have 2 deputy premiers: Manu Ayerdi (Geroa Bai, PNV) will assume the management of economic policies and independent Miguel Laparra, an university professor, will be in charge of social policies. The government will have 9 cabinet members, chosen by Mrs Barkos between the candidates proposed by the different parties. The appointment of María José Beaumont (EH Bildu) with a portfolio including Interior has created controversy, given past links between the abertzale left and ETA.

The Navarrese mess, probably one of my last contributions here:

()

La Rioja: Ignacio Ceniceros (PP) failed to pass the first investiture vote which took place on July 1, but was elected in a second vote on July 3 without a majority. Ceniceros was supported by his party, while C's regional parliamentarians abstained.

Valencia: Ximo Puig (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Compromís and Podemos and took office on June 27. The new regional government is comprised by the Premier, a Deputy Premier (Mónica Oltra, Compromís) and 8 cabinet members (3 PSOE, 3 Compromís and 2 independents).


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: RodPresident on July 20, 2015, 05:17:10 AM
Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - General election in November or December
Post by: SNJ1985 on July 20, 2015, 07:53:45 PM
I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 21, 2015, 02:09:15 AM
Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?

It's totally impossible to see the CUP siding with C's and PSC. Another question would be that CSP had chances of placing first as BComú did in Barcelona, but that is not going to happen. The joint CDC-ERC list*, that is going to be called "Juntos por el Sí" (something like "Together for Yes"), is going to win in all likelihood and Artur Mas will remain as premier, but probably the sovereignist ticket will fall short from a majority. However, there will be a likely pro-independence majority in the next Catalan Parliament adding the CUP. In order to give some legitimacy to an unilateral declaration of independence, it would be important that the joint list and the CUP add a majority of the popular vote (and maybe they will fall short). The CSP is in favour of a referendum, as well the UDC, but I don't see the left and the party of Duran i Lleida supporting the projects of Artur Mas. C's, PSC and PP are against to call a referendum.

*Former FC Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola will run in the "Together" ticket placing in the last place of the list:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/20/inenglish/1437408521_513427.html

Quote
Former Barcelona soccer coach Pep Guardiola is to run in the Catalan regional election on September 27 on premier Artur Mas’s joint pro-sovereignty ticket.

While Guardiola, who is now in China with his current club Bayern Munich, has no intention of taking up a seat in the regional parliament if his group is victorious at the polls, he felt that adding his name to the list of candidates would provide a clear gesture of support for Catalan independence (...)

I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.

OK, well done. You will have to decide where to place the Catalan elections scheduled in September: here or in a single thread.




Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Catalan elections in September
Post by: SNJ1985 on July 21, 2015, 10:31:56 AM
I changed the title again. When the Catalan elections are over, then I'll change it so it mentions the general election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Catalan elections in September
Post by: politicus on July 21, 2015, 10:46:46 AM
Maybe you could just call it Spanish Elections and Politics like the general discussion threads about German, Italian, Dutch, Austrian and Swiss politics, that way you wouldn't have to update the thread title.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SNJ1985 on July 21, 2015, 10:50:37 AM
Yeah, that's a good idea.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 05:44:55 AM
More fun from Catalonia.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/21/inenglish/1437471078_289683.html

Quote
The leaders of the pro-sovereignty bloc that hopes to win the Catalan regional election on September 27 warned that they are ready to declare independence immediately after the ballot if Madrid tries to place any legal hurdles in their way.

Regional premier Artur Mas, who is leading the secession drive, had originally talked about a six-to-eight-month period before declaring independence following his bloc’s hypothetical victory in the regional election.

Although voters are officially just electing the next Catalan premier, Mas and his team are presenting it as a de facto referendum on independence. A bid to hold a real referendum last year was blocked by the central government (...)

Now, pro-independence forces have regrouped into a bloc called Junts pel sí (Together for Yes) comprising two political parties – Mas’s Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Oriol Junqueras’s Catalan Republican Left (ERC) – and civic associations. Together, they hope to inspire renewed support for the secession bid following several months of dwindling support in opinion surveys.

But Catalan nationalism is deeply divided over the issue of independence. On Monday, Josep Antoni Duran Lleida, a leading figure of Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC), which was CDC’s partner in government for nearly 37 years as CiU, said that Artur Mas is letting himself get “swept away by ERC and secessionist entities.”

“They’ve put us in a pickle and now we have to get out of it without flouting the law,” said Duran, who defended the need for dialogue and rejected the unilateral declaration of independence championed by Mas.

His UDC party will run as an alternative to the secessionist bloc after CiU broke up last month over the issue.

The Junts pel si bloc was officially presented on Monday at the Catalan History Museum in Barcelona, where top candidate Raül Romeva, a former eco-socialist representative in the European Parliament, warned that they are quite earnest about declaring independence.

“We are completely serious about this, and everyone needs to understand that we’re going to do it,” he said. “We’ve tried every other way but they didn’t let us. This is the chance to do what we couldn’t do on November 9 and obtain a democratic mandate.”

Despite their high profile, Mas and Junqueras are running fourth and fifth on the Junts pel sí list and leaving two of the three top spots to the former heads of ANC and Òmnium Cultural, two pro-independence civic associations.

By bringing this social element to the Junts pel si bloc, its leaders hope to contain the leftist coalition of four parties, including Podemos, which are running in the election under the name Catalunya sí que es pot (loosely, Catalonia, yes we can).

Steps toward the declaration of independence:

Quote
At the presentation, bloc leaders talked about the steps they want to take if they secure an absolute majority on September 27 – even if those steps clearly clash with the Spanish Constitution.

The first step, said Romeva, would be for the Catalan parliament to declare the beginning of the secession process. After that, the legislature would give the executive the power to activate “state structures.” The third step would be to draft a Catalan Constitution “from the bottom up, with citizen participation,” and after voting on it, there would be a formal declaration of independence. Within 18 months, the government would dissolve and new constituent elections called.

This would be the beginning of what secessionist leaders call the “disconnect” with Spain. “We are aware of the risks involved and also of the opportunities,” said Romeva. “They won’t make it easy for us."

But if Spain blocks the process, there will be an immediate declaration of independence.

“In the event that the Spanish state, through political and or legal decisions, should block Catalonia’s self-government, the [Catalan] government and parliament will proceed to proclaim independence and approve the judiciary transitional law,” said Romeva.

Last week, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said there would “be no Catalan independence, and Catalonia is not going to leave Spain or Europe, even though this is what’s being offered to citizens there right now.”


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 22, 2015, 05:50:10 AM
What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 06:06:41 AM
Is there any possibility that govt/His Majesty King of Spain will use army to secure Catalonia and beat up potential traitors?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 22, 2015, 06:10:02 AM
Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 06:20:38 AM
The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 09:59:12 AM
What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?

Probably the central government will refer resolutions adopted by the Parliament of Catalonia, in order to implement the "road map" to independence, to the Spanish Constitutional Court. This has been the modus operandi of the Rajoy administration to date. But the leaders of the secessionist bloc now threaten with issuing the UDI immediately, in case the Spanish government puts obstacles. At this point, we enter into uncharted territory. Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution says that if a region is not abiding its obligations under the existing legal framework, the central government can take the "necessary measures" to enforce said obligations. Such "measures" would be implemented  after lodging a complaint to the regional premier and, in case the request is not granted, they need the approval of the Spanish Senate. The problem is that article has never been implemented and "measures" are not developed in the text. Jurists don't coincide in the interpretation of the article, but say the Spanish government should only intervene as a last resort and advocate for the principle of minimum intervention. The consequences of a suspension of the regional autonomy, for instance, are totally unpredictable. A professor of constitutional law says that implementing article 155 would be the end of the current model of regional autonomy.

Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.

On paper, both want the Països Catalans ("Catalan Countries"). In practice, it's possible that they see the Greater Catalonia as a long term project. It's something like Euskal Herria (the union of Euskadi, Navarre and the French Basque Country).

The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.

Spain was a personal union of crowns under the Hapsburgs. It was a very disfunctional model. By 1640 revolts erupted in Portugal, Andalusia and Catalonia. Catalans call the uprising against the minister of Felipe IV (the Count-Duke of Olivares) Guerra dels Segadors and the Catalan anthem refers to those events. For sure Felipe VI doesn't want a repetition of history, so I don't think he's going to send the Army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Revolt

Btw, Felipe VI and Artur Mas met recently. According to Miguel Ángel Revilla, premier of Cantabria, the King told him that the attitude of Artur Mas is "irreconcilable". No room for negotiation, apparently.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 10:17:00 AM
That is pretty sad that rampaging nationalism is going to win again.
Sorry for a little bit offtop but I was just curious if this is even possible for king to use army in case of rebellion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 12:54:22 PM
Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 22, 2015, 01:16:37 PM
Yes, I don't think Artur Mas will go the way of poor Lluis Companys


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 01:45:45 PM
There's an estimation for the Parliament of Catalonia released by Público.

Junts pel Sí (CDC+ERC) 39.2% 59 (-3)* seats

Catalunya Sí que es Pot (Podem+ICV+EUiA) 17% 23 (+10) seats

Ciutadans (C's) 15.7% 21 (+12) seats

PSC 7.6% 10 (-10) seats

CUP 7.2% 10 (+7) seats

PP 6.7% 9 (-10) seats

UDC 3.6% 3 (-6) seats

*Currently CDC 37, ERC 21 and DC 4. The latter (Democràcia Catalana: "Catalan Democracy") is a splinter of the UDC

The secessionist bloc (Junts pel Sí+CUP) adds 46.4% of the vote and 69 seats (majority 68). The anti-secessionist parties (C's, PSC and PP) add 30% of the vote and 40 seats. The "Third Way" parties (CSP, UDC) 20.6% and 26 seats.

In other news, the map of regional governments is already completed. Socialist Javier Fernández was elected premier of Asturias in a third vote. Uxue Barkos was proclaimed premier of Navarre.  



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 02:44:25 PM
Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.


Thanks for answer. I thought that at least in case of military king have anything to say.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 23, 2015, 11:22:10 AM
King Felipe VI spoke before a group of newly appointed judges in Barcelona, stating that respect for the law is "unavoidable" in a democratic regime. Premier Artur Mas attended the event, but he didn't get the hint.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/23/inenglish/1437659569_325845.html

Quote
“For the judiciary, as for all other state institutions, respect for the law is not, nor should it ever be, a mere formality or an alternative,” he said. “At its deepest level, respecting the law is a source of legitimacy and an unavoidable requirement for democratic coexistence in peace and freedom.”

Raül Romeva, the top candidate of the "Together for Yes" ticket, states the agreement reached between CDC, ERC and civic associations didn't make explicit that Artur Mas will be the head of a "national concentration" government that proclaims the independence of Catalonia. CDC officials denied that claim; according to deputy premier Neus Munté everything is spoken and Mas will continue exercising a leading role in the secessionist process at the head of the government. 

The Guardia Civil arrested three members of the Sumarrocas, an important business family linked to the Jordi Pujol clan, this morning in Barcelona. They are charged with the payment of illegal commissions to the mayor of Torredembarra (a coastal town in Tarragona province) of the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC). The judge is investigating offences against the public administration, organised criminal group and money laundering. Joaquín Sumarroca, the head of the Sumarroca clan, was co-founder of the CDC together with Jordi Pujol. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Peeperkorn on July 23, 2015, 11:25:13 PM
PODEMOS collapsing according to this poll.

()

http://www.abc.es/espana/20150719/abci-ciudadanos-diputados-201507181850.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on July 24, 2015, 12:54:27 AM
Any ideas on what type of government would take over on this kind of result (the July poll).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Diouf on July 24, 2015, 05:07:27 AM
It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 24, 2015, 05:51:19 AM
Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 24, 2015, 06:24:30 AM
Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?

Why wouldn't they? SNP runs for the Commons.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on July 24, 2015, 07:00:06 AM
Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?

Why wouldn't they? SNP runs for the Commons.

In Catalonia, CiU have split into their component parts over the issue of Catalan Independence. The 'C' part is running on the joint nationalist issue in the election this September while the 'U' part is running on its own.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on July 24, 2015, 08:18:48 AM
Any ideas on what type of government would take over on this kind of result (the July poll).

PP+Cs+CUP+CC+others?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 24, 2015, 10:48:38 AM
It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.

It's important to watch at the average polling. GAD3 and Celeste-Tel are usually underestimating Podemos, whereas Metroscopia and others tend to overestimate new parties like C's. On average Podemos is approx. at 18%. Seat allocation is only approximate because, as you say, it's hard to translate percentages into seats. Spain has 52 constituencies, corresponding to the provinces and the two autonomous cities. Most of provinces elect few seats and allocation is not proportional to vote share. On the one hand, the big parties (traditionally PP and PSOE) benefit from the system. On the other hand, peripheral nationalists and regionalist parties are relatively best represented than third national forces, because the support of the first is concentrated in a few provinces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 24, 2015, 12:14:42 PM
A unilateral Catatalan withdrawal would probably be a boon (electorally) to the PP, IMO.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 24, 2015, 12:46:28 PM
I don't know. A good performance in Catalonia might boost Podemos and C's as well. It's hard to predict. By the way, Catalunya Sí es Pot has already a candidate. No time to go into details now. On the other hand, PP leader in Catalonia Alicia Sánchez-Camacho is about to leave and the Rajoy's party lacks a candidate right now. Some rumours point to former mayor of Badalona, the controversial Xavier García Albiol. I have a very  low opinion of xenophobes, so I hope PP's Supreme Head picks another candidate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 25, 2015, 10:58:16 AM
Electograph "poll of polls" as of July 20:

()

http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

Metroscopia poll released today by El País

PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 25, 2015, 11:03:15 AM
Strange war on royal portraits in the Barcelona City Hall.

Chapter 1: Barcelona City Council removes bust of King Juan Carlos from chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437722628_871968.html

Quote
A bust of former Spanish King Juan Carlos I was removed from the Barcelona City Council chamber on Thursday, as part of a review of iconography of the monarchy in the city. The initiative has come from the new mayor of the Catalan capital, former social activist Ada Colau.

“There is an inflated symbolism relating to the monarchy, which is in contrast to the under-representation of other citizen traditions that are more appropriate in this city,” explained the deputy mayor, Gerardo Pisarello, and the councilor in charge of Historical Memory affairs, Xavier Domènech. The pair also announced on Thursday a study to evaluate changes to other elements relating to the monarchy, both in terms of municipal buildings and place names (...)

Chapter 2: PP hangs King Felipe’s portrait in Barcelona City Council chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437733354_176896.html

Quote
A second chapter was written on Friday in a growing row over the presence of images of the Spanish royal family inside Barcelona’s City Council.

A day after new mayor Ada Colau, of the leftist bloc BComú, ordered a bust of former King Juan Carlos I taken down from the chamber in front of television cameras, members of the conservative Popular Party (PP) walked in with a portrait of the current monarch, Felipe VI, and placed it in the exact same spot where the bust once rested.

“After yesterday’s mockery of the monarchy, we’ve placed this image here in order to comply with the law. Colau no longer has the excuse that she doesn’t have a portrait handy,” said Alberto Fernández Díaz, the PP leader in the Catalan capital (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Peeperkorn on July 25, 2015, 08:50:13 PM


PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on July 26, 2015, 04:17:53 AM
Ciudadanos fulmina en dos meses la ley electoral murciana que PP y PSOE no cambiaron en 28 años (http://vozpopuli.com/actualidad/65831-ciudadanos-fulmina-en-dos-meses-la-ley-electoral-murciana-que-pp-y-psoe-no-cambiaron-en-28-anos)

So, C's, alongside with Podemos and the PSOE have forced the PP in Murcia to join in reforming the previous 1987 electoral law, replacing the 5 constituencies with a 5% threshold with a single one with a 3% one, hence ensuring greater representativeness. Interesting how easy it was to do, although it is a pity it's still closed list, but something is something. Hopefully other regions will follow suit.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 26, 2015, 08:47:12 AM
La Vangardia releases a practical guide of parties, platforms, coalitions and entities currently existing in Catalonia. It's useful to navigate the Catalan labyrinth:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20150726/54434042593/diccionario-entender-nuevo-mapa-politico-catalan-27s.html

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 27, 2015, 11:38:06 AM
Most Catalans see a clash with Madrid inevitable, says Metroscopia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/27/inenglish/1437987674_716070.html

Quote
With two months to go before Catalonia holds elections, residents of the northeastern region are increasingly convinced that a clash with Madrid is inevitable, a new opinion poll has revealed.

More than 60 percent of Catalans feel it is nearly impossible to prevent a confrontation with the rest of Spain at this point, according to a survey carried out by Metroscopia for EL PAÍS.

Both Catalans and citizens of other regions are similarly critical of the way Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Catalan premier Artur Mas have been dealing with the situation.

Mas and his secessionist bloc, Junts pel sí, are casting the September 27 ballot as a de facto plebiscite on sovereignty. If his group wins, Mas says, it will provide justification for a unilateral declaration of independence from Spain.

Meanwhile, the conservative government in Madrid is watching for any signs of unlawfulness in the way the Catalan election is officially announced, in which case it would turn to the Constitutional Court for support.

Catalonia held an informal referendum on independence on November 9 of last year after the ruling nationalist bloc CiU failed in its bid to hold a legal one. While that vote yielded a majority support for secession, outside observers gave it little credibility because of the way it was organized.

Since then, secessionists have been seeking new ways to achieve their goal while ramping up their anti-Madrid rhetoric. In the process, however, the two nationalist parties that made up CiU – Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) – have broken up after 37 years of nearly uninterrupted rule in the region.

The reason for the divorce is the independence drive, which UDC does not support. Instead, this party will run on a program of dialogue to obtain greater devolved powers from Spain.

This rift in Catalan politics is also extensive to society, as the Metroscopia survey reflects. The poll, conducted between July 20 and 22, shows that 60 percent of Catalans have lost all hope of seeing a political deal that will avoid a rupture with Spain between now and September 27.

The survey also shows that 39 percent of Catalans feel secession would be bad for Catalonia, compared with 47 percent who see nothing but advantages.

Additionally, 54 percent of Catalans would like to see Spain become a federal state in which regions are freely associated but enjoy even greater devolved powers than they do now. Elsewhere in Spain, only 34 percent of respondents support this system, which is championed by the Socialist Party but has yet to be clearly defined.

Elsewhere in Spain, 55 percent of citizens still feel it is possible for politicians to find some common ground that will avoid a complete confrontation. And 73 percent agree that Catalan secession would be bad for Spain.


Outside Catalonia, 55 percent of respondents feel that Rajoy has not handled the challenge from the Catalan government properly, and has not been open to bilateral negotiations that could possibly have prevented the current escalation. But then, 59 percent of Catalans feel that Artur Mas is also making a mistake with his own secessionist strategy.

Artur Mas presented today his model of a tax agency for an independent Catalonia.

PSC leader and candidate Miquel Iceta states there won't be a suspension of the Catalan autonomy; in case the Parliament of Catalonia votes UDI, the Constitutional Court would set the declaration aside and that is all. Iceta is aware that Catalan socialists are going to perform badly. The PSC has faced several splits in its sovereignist wing which have approached ERC, a party that aspires to take the space of Catalanist socialdemocracy. Hence, PSC aspires to be "indispensable" to conform a leftist government. Even that sounds unrealistic in the present context. On her part, PP leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho still doesn't make clear if she's going to repeat as candidate. Polls predict a downfall for the conservative party, with many voters switching to C's. The orange party runs with Inés Arrimadas as candidate; she's the Albert Rivera's lieutenant in the parliamentary group. The different forces in Catalunya Sí que és Pot (CSP) agreed to nominate Lluis Rabell as their candidate, after having failed to convince Arcadi Oliveres (who is economist and head of the Procés Constituent political movement). Lluis Rabell has been the head of the federation of neighbourhood associations in the city of Barcelona and supported actively the candidacy of Ada Colau in the local elections. An article in El País describes him as an "educated activist" born in El Raval, he was formerly in EUiA (the Catalan branch of IU), has a "trotskyst background", a "classical political culture" and is a long time activist. Rabell, who is translator and interpreter, has a "consensual profile, able to unblock tense and bitter meetings", says the article. The CSP candidate states that he's not independentist, but voted "yes-yes" in the proxy referendum held in November because he's angry at the Spanish government, which has treated Catalonia very badly in his opinion. Today in El Periódico, Lluis Rabell says that next election will be a choice between "amnesia" and "cleaning up", I guess in allusion to the multiple corruption scandals around Artur Mas' CDC and other parties. On the other hand, Procés Constituent rejected in an assembly joining the CSP coalition (comprised by Podemos and ICV-EUiA). As a result, economist Vicenç Navarro (who co-authored an economic draft for Podemos) left the movement, which seemed to be divided between the advocates of joining the CSP and a secessionist wing closer to the CUP. Finally, UDC candidate Ramon Espadaler promises to lead a "revolution of common sense" (seny in Catalan language), getting away from the secessionism of Artur Mas and the inmobilism of Mariano Rajoy. "Our prudence won't make us traitors and our patriotism won't make us imprudent", he said.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 27, 2015, 04:29:26 PM
General election poll released today.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 27, 2015, 04:57:24 PM
It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 27, 2015, 05:02:04 PM
It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 27, 2015, 05:05:38 PM
Regarding the Portuguese comparison CDS-PP is a lot more moderate than the right wing of Spanish PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 27, 2015, 06:02:57 PM
It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.

PP actually had a split in its right wing called Vox Party, led by Santiago Abascal and former MEP Alejo Vidal Quadras. The latter failed to win a seat in the EP elections by a few thousand votes. Since then, Vox has failed miserably in subsequent local and regional elections. Vox chairman Santiago Abascal ran as top candidate for the Madrid Regional Assembly: the list got 1%. Ergo, there's no life outside PP for a hardcore right-winger. Also, Spanish far-right parties (Falange, Democracia Nacional, España 2000, etc) have been always a joke. Only Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC) had some success in the 2011 local elections, but now the support for the bunch founded by Josep Anglada has vanished. PxC is virtually disappeared in Catalonia and Anglada himself was expelled from the party due to "deficient" management. In fact, PxC was like his personal enterprise: Anglada managed local branches like franchises . Anglada is a former member of Fuerza Nueva with links to Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders. There's no room for a xenophobic far-right populist party in Spain, basically because xenophobic feelings are not widespread in the country. In other words, most of Spaniards don't see immigrants as the main source of troubles and don't blame them for the economic situation. Of course Spain is not free of xenophobia, but it's a localised phenomenon. We have examples of xenophobic mayors like Xavier García Albiol (PP), who governed Badalona between 2011 and 2015. The former PP mayor of Vitoria made some controversial statements bordering that feeling; as well in past local elections PP distributed some xenophobic leaflets in Barcelona. On the other hand, the anti-neoliberal discourse is monopolised by Podemos and IU, as well by other left-wing regional parties (CUP, Bildu, AGE in Galicia, etc) that are miles away from xenophobia.

The only possible ally for PP is actually C's, a party that is more 'liberal' and centrist than PP. It's already posted that C's has controversial stances (at least in this country) on the issue of granting healthcare benefits to irregular immigrants. They say it's unsustainable; PP took back medical cards for irregulars but later allowed them to receive emergency healthcare, making the orange party look radical. However, there's a difference between that and the rhetoric of Marine Le Pen. Both C's and the Vox Party are pro-EU.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 28, 2015, 12:46:33 PM
Alicia Sánchez-Camacho announced this morning thatXavier García Albiol has been nominated PP candidate in Catalonia. "García Albiol has proved his worth as Mayor of Badalona. He's a good person", said Sánchez-Camacho. As for the candidate, García Albiol said he represents "a project beyond ideologies" and asked for the cooperation of all Catalans because "we have a lot at stake on September 27".

Xavier García Albiol is aged 47 and is two meters high. Formerly he played in Juventut, a club of the Spanish basketball league located in Badalona. He became known in Spanish politics because of the harsh policies against immigrants he implemented as mayor. He has made very harsh statements against two communities in particular: Romanian Gypsies and Pakistani. According to him the Roma are "a plague that came here to commit crimes", while the Pakistani are characterised by their habit of eating bad meat. In this year's local campaign he promised "cleaning" Badalona, a town in metropolitan Barcelona populated by more than 200k people. Badalona has been historically a left-wing stronghold (PSUC in 1979, PSC between 1983 and 2011). García Albiol came first in the 2015 elections, but he was ousted from mayoralty by a pact between leftist parties. He was replaced by Dolors Sabater (Badalona en Comú), a teacher and social activist who was member of Òminium Cultural, an independentist association that promotes Catalan language and whose chairman Muriel Casals runs in the Together for Yes ticket.    


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 28, 2015, 03:24:00 PM
Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 28.8%, PSOE 24.2%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 11.1%, IU 4.2%

http://www.telecinco.es/informativos/nacional/Encuesta-Mediaset_Espana-Sigma_Dos-intencion_voto_julio_0_2026500444.html

The pollster is still asking for CiU, but don't take that into account. Convergence and Union is dead and buried.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 30, 2015, 12:35:08 PM
Euskobarómetro poll for the Basque Country (election scheduled next year):

()

PNV 33.5%, EH Bildu 23.1%, Podemos 15.1%, PSE-EE / PSOE 14.1%, PP 8.1%, Others  5.7%

http://www.ehu.eus/documents/1457190/4342183/Estimacion_Mayo15.pdf


Journalist Antonio Baños has been elected to top the CUP-Crida Constituent list in the next Catalan elections. Baños is not a CUP activist, he's member of an independentist association called Súmate ("Join") comprised by Spanish-speaking people. The newly elected candidate promises three things: "Win", "Disobey" and "Build". Baños explained that they will disobey "to define the breaking point with the Spanish state and all the powers that have taken us under their force" and "to fight the fascism, racism and xenophobia that have came onto the campaign". He regrets the appointment of Xavier García Albiol as PP candidate, whom the CUP will fight "from the street". He also stated that they will "rebuild capitalist schemes" and "the connection between economy and production". "We will build the Països Catalans (Catalan Countries)", stressed Baños.

For sure Xavier García Albiol will introduce a factor of further polarisation in the Catalan campaign. I don't know if his appointment will succeed in halting the vote drain between PP and C's. On the one hand, Albiol is the PP politician in Catalonia with higher level of knowledge and he's the kind of xenophobe populist that performs well in the face-to-face. PP might be seeking former PxC voters in metropolitan Barcelona, a type prone to abstain in regional elections. On the other hand, the xenophobic drive of the PP in the local campaign in Catalonia worked badly outside Badalona. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 01, 2015, 02:54:49 AM
Mr Mariano Rajoy reviews his tenure and sends a message to Catalan secessionists.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/31/inenglish/1438352284_257740.html

"Catalonia will never be independent in any way"

Quote
“The government is going to keep a watchful eye to ensure the law is obeyed, and we will continue to defend the law. There won’t be any plebiscite vote just in the same way there was no independence referendum held, despite all the propaganda. No self-respecting country can allow the law to be broken just for political benefit,” (...)

Rajoy said that his government will not allow Catalans to be “deprived” of their Spanish citizenship or European Union membership.

At the same time, the prime minister warned of the possibility that the current political situation in Greece could send shock waves to Spain (...)

“Government leaders are here to solve problems, not create them,” he said in a blind reference to Alexis Tsipras’ Greek government, which Podemos has aligned itself with. “And one way of creating problems is when you make promises to people that are impossible to keep"

Spain has a bright economic future, providing that Spaniards make the correct choice:

Quote
“I want to point out that today things have improved and Spaniards can look forward to a more secure future with more optimism than ever,” said the prime minister, predicting that Spain will post the highest economic growth in the euro zone this year.

Even though Rajoy will raise pensions by 0.25 percent under next year’s budget plan, he said that more social security contributions are needed to help pay retirees, and that his government will continue with efforts to bring down the nearly 26 percent unemployment rate.

The Cabinet on Friday approved the projected 2016 budget, which also contains measures aimed at reducing the public deficit from the current 4.2 percent to 2.6 percent by the end of 2016.

But corruption stands in the way:

Quote
Now, as the prime minister closes out his term, the Rajoy administration is facing a new corruption scandal involving PP leaders in Madrid.

Reporters asked Rajoy about the revelations contained in the court report on the Púnica illegal kickbacks-for-contracts case, which has ensnared a group of top-ranking and mid-level PP officials, including former Madrid senior official Francisco Granados, who is being held in preventive custody.

This week’s revelations from court documents allege that public funds were used under the PP regional government of Ignacio González to “pay favors” to a computer expert to fill the internet with positive coverage about the premier’s administration.

Rajoy called the allegations “absolutely reproachable” and said “we would have preferred never to have  learned about them.”

“We have to try to ensure that these things never happen again,” he said.

Obviously the message of complacency conveyed by Mariano Rajoy has been challenged by opposition leaders. Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) says that Rajoy is unable to provide "a response to the crisis" and is "accomplice of corruption", as well "the best ally of Artur Mas" because of his "immobilism" and inability to dialogue. Regarding to that, Catalan premier Artur Mas said that Rajoy has been unable to seat at a table to discuss the "democratic aspirations of the Catalan people". Podemos spokepersons stated that Rajoy sketched "an unreal country". Alberto Garzón (IU) said that improving of macroeconomic indicators is due to the "expansionary" measures implemented by Draghi and the ECB, as well considered Rajoy's balance "pure fantasy" stressing that "we are a country in social emergency that needs policies to create employment". Albert Rivera (C's) considers that Rajoy heads a worn out government lacking of a project for the future, saying that is inappropriate talking about a "triumphal" end of term given "the worrying situation of families and  self-employed workers", "middle class has been fractured and broken" during his tenure and there's the highest level of inequality of the present democratic period. As for the Catalonia, Rivera accused PP and PSOE of neglecting the region: "PP left Catalonia to the Pujol clan and Zapatero to (former ERC leader) Carod Rovira". Rivera refused to comment an offer made by PP candidate Xavier García Albiol, who stated to be "open" to reach governance pacts with C's and other anti-separatist parties after the Catalan elections. In other news, CSP candidate Lluis Rabell stated that if Catalonia secedes without the "necessary complicity" it would not be better treated than Greece by the EU. Rabell considers that if the Catalan elections are the prelude of political changes in Spain, "a window of opportunities" would be open to celebrate the Catalan referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 04, 2015, 09:22:28 AM
Artur Mas calls elections in Catalonia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/08/03/inenglish/1438609838_472058.html

Quote
Catalan premier Artur Mas signed a decree on Monday calling for early regional elections, which will be held on September 27. The move is part of his continued sovereignty push for the northeastern Spanish region.

The signing came at 9pm on Monday evening, accompanied by a call by the politician for the vote to serve as a plebiscite. However, the word “plebiscite” was not included in the decree, so as to avoid a legal challenge from the central government in Madrid.

Mas’s quest for independence for Catalonia has put him in a situation of direct confrontation with Popular Party Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who just last week reiterated that the Spanish government will never allow Catalonia to break away from the rest of the country.

Mas, a leader in the Convergència (CDC) party, is running on a secessionist bloc ticket, Junts pel Sí (literally, Together for yes), along with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and other pro-independence groups and associations.

The aim is for the bloc to win an absolute majority of seats in the regional parliament, which they would then consider gives them a legitimate mandate to move toward independence. However, Mas did not specify the percentage of votes needed nor the concrete steps that would be taken after the September 27 vote.

Mas waited until the 11th hour to call the elections, in order to reduce the time between the signing and the polls themselves to the absolute minimum of 54 days. As such, he was hoping to avoid the possibility that Prime Minister Rajoy would opt at the last minute to schedule upcoming general elections for the same day as the Catalan regional polls, as some business leaders from Catalonia – who are anti-independence – had called on him to do (...)

With waning support in parliament, Mas broke away from a previous coalition with Unió Democràtica early this year. Unió leaders disapproved of his plan to map out a unilateral independence strategy.

Nevertheless, Convergència is convinced that it will drum up international support.

“We have demonstrated that we have used all the legal resources we have at hand, and we will show the international community that we find ourselves in a position to hold this referendum because the Spanish courts have denied us this option,” said Josep Rull, Convergència’s general coordinator.


()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 05, 2015, 05:46:09 AM
CIS July survey released today (April survey in brackets):

PP 28.2% (25.6%), PSOE 24.9% (24.3%), Podemos 15.7% (16.5%), C's 11.1% (13.8%), IU 3.7% (4.8%)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3104mar_A.pdf


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on August 06, 2015, 10:09:55 AM
I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 06, 2015, 01:41:08 PM
I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?

Unió and CDC parted ways because the latter turned to pro-independence stances in the last years, while the UDC stands where CiU used to be traditionally. Tension between both coalition partners comes from the beginning of the independence drive, approx in 2010. UDC tried to keep the coalition with CDC because it's a minor party with little electoral chances. However, plans for an unilateral declaration of independence were too much for UDC. Also, Artur Mas and the CDC radicalised senior staff and grassroots wanted to get rid of their partners. Duran i Lleida et alii are considered "traitors" by many people in Convergència. On the other hand, corruption affairs around CiU played a role, especially the Jordi Pujol scandal. Artur Mas desired to refund or reconvert his party, founded by Pujol, whose HQs are currently seized by judiciary. There's a pro-independence faction in UDC that splitted with the breaking up of CiU; now they are called Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and joined the Together for Yes alliance.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 06, 2015, 01:49:15 PM
Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 06, 2015, 03:33:47 PM
Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?

That party is virtually disappeared, since its main leaders -namely Jordi Laporta and Alfons López Tena- quitted politics. Anyway, the party supports the Together for Yes alliance. According to the SI website, party membership voted recently on endorsing the pro-independence joint ticket and 85% said "Yes".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: tpfkaw on August 07, 2015, 03:04:55 PM
Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 07, 2015, 06:58:30 PM
Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?

Probably. Why do you think so?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 09, 2015, 04:23:48 AM
These two pieces might work well as an overview of the current state of affairs.

The new bid for secession in Catalonia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/catalonia-calls-election-in-new-bid-for-secession-from-spain.html?_r=0

Quote
A year ago, secessionist movements were all the rage in Europe — until they were not.

After a nerve-rattling campaign, Scots narrowly voted in September to remain part of Britain. Two months later, Catalonia’s drive for an independence referendum fizzled into a nonbinding vote after being thwarted by Spanish courts.

But if Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain breathed a sigh of relief that the issue was behind him, he has reason again to worry (...)

The "unpredictable political autumn" and the trend spotted by the CIS poll:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/05/uk-spain-politics-poll-idUKKCN0QA17Z20150805

Quote
An official opinion poll released on Wednesday showed the PP with 28.2 percent support ahead of the opposition Socialists (PSOE) on 24.9, both up from the last poll published in May, while the radical leftist Podemos movement and the centrist Ciudadanos lost ground on 15.7 and 11.1 percent respectively.

The findings of the large-scale survey by the state-run Sociological Investigation Centre confirmed both the trend towards political splintering and greater instability, and a modest boost for Rajoy's government from a reviving economy.

With no clear winner emerging, and a September regional vote in Catalonia expected to add fresh divisions, Spain is heading for an unpredictable autumn.

In town hall and regional elections in May, Spaniards swept aside the two-party system that emerged in the late 1970s after the end of Francisco Franco's dictatorship, ushering in an unstable new era of coalition and compromise.

The latest poll confirmed that up to a third of voters back upstart parties like Podemos, Ciudadanos and other splinter groups and are turning their backs on the traditionally dominant PP and PSOE, tainted by corruption and seen as responsible for the worst economic crisis in decades.

While the economy is now expanding at its fastest pace in more than seven years, a stubbornly high jobless rate and rising income inequality are powerful drivers of deep political change (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on September 27, 2015, 07:40:49 AM
Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on September 27, 2015, 11:21:53 AM
Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.

Not quite. Exist polls will be at 9 or so, since the electoral colleges close at 8. At 6 we got the second turnout data, a turnout of 63.14%, over 7 pp. higher than in 2012. Apparently higher in traditionally non-nationalist areas.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 01, 2015, 04:31:55 PM
PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on October 01, 2015, 10:14:57 PM
PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html

¡Finally!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 04:39:14 AM
Metroscopia poll released by El País:

()

Vote estimation for C's seems a bit exaggerated, as usual in this pollster. However the trend in last polls is that, after elections in Catalonia, the orange party is replacing the purple as third force.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (October 5):

PP 27%, PSOE 21.9%, C's 16.5%, Podemos 14.8%, IU 4.5%

I think PSOE's estimation is a bit low, whereas according to Metroscopia there's a PP-PSOE tie. My guess is that PP might be ahead by a narrow margin (2% or 3%).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 11, 2015, 07:53:22 AM
Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Warning: Large image.

()

Acccording to this and most other polls, both C's and Podemos surpass the de facto 15% threshold that usually impedes third parties from gaining a number of seats roughly proportional to their proportion of votes. Therefore, each party will probably gain around 40-50 seats in December, unless things change a lot.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 08:49:42 AM
Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably :( ).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 11, 2015, 09:00:33 AM
So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 11, 2015, 09:01:51 AM

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably :( ).

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

It is indeed realistic, the Catalan elections have propelled them to a centre stage of the campaign. Their electoral plank, with its pragmatic centrist message (reminds of the UCD's speeches: You are Christian-democrat? We have those in UCD, social-democrat? that too! Liberal? of course, democrat? sure thing!!) and what I call "moderate constitutional revision" plans seem likely to attract many dissatisfied PP voters and also PSOE voters who don't believe Sánchez will deliver.

You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

That is, assumming C's supports the PSOE. If they support a PP minority, things will be weird and I doubt Rajoy will be allowed to remain as President. But who would replace him? The non-marianistas are very few within the party and Cospedal is hated (and so is Soraya) within the party.

Luckily I'll be in Spain on the 20th, so I'll vote :D

So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?

That's the million dollar question, isn't it?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 09:55:18 AM
You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 11, 2015, 10:15:51 AM
I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.

Indeed. If it were up to me, I'd suppress the concierto and replace it with ample fiscal autonomy for all autonomies at a similar level, perhaps with reduced competencies for the smaller regions, like Cantabria or La Rioja (I mean, c'mon, why are either of them CCAA??!). But since we're talking about what is feasible and not my own ideas, you are right. It's difficult, but I think that C's would give up on that issue after making some noise and explain their decision on the basis of 'achieving consensus requires giving up on some issues".

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 08:49:50 PM

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

Wait, Metroscopia was reasonably spotted on in predicting the result in Catalonia on September 27.

http://www.politicalmarkets.com/wordpress/?p=2099

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/22/media/1442955198_970208.html

Metroscopia estimations for the general election are another question (they tend to overestimate insurgent parties, particularly C's). Still, I think that pollster is more reliable than NC Report (they only work for La Razón and the PP) and Celeste-Tel (apparently the polling chief is the wife of that of NC Report).

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?

At this point, I would put the word "nation" together with the word "Catalunya" in the constitutional text. In the present text Catalonia is already a "historical nationality". Recently Valencia regional premier Ximo Puig proposed to restore the 2006 Catalan Stature, the same Albert Rivera says is unconstitutional. Of course Catalans would ask for some safeguards for the Catalan language, in order to prevent that someone like José Ignacio Wert takes on again Education and Culture portfolios.

I read today (I should say yesterday, it's 2 AM at home) a good article by historian Santos Juliá, who is the best alive in what concerns Manuel Azaña. I don't necessarily agree on the whole text, but I liked very much the part where he explains how Jaume Vicens Vives -probably the most prominent Catalan historian in the XX Century- had to fight against the "romantic compulsion" that tends to rewrite the past in order to match with a certain nationalistic narrative -of course very 19th century, that is to say 'romantic'-. Reading those paragraphs, you can understand it is only one step from that and the "Catalunya vs Espanya" exhibition on the anniversary of the 1714 siege of Barcelona, which wasn't the final stage of a war between two nations but the end of a dynastic conflict. I'd wish that desire to break away - which, of course, is as legitimate as the desire to stay- didn't need traducing history in order to sustain itself. As for the other camp (call it unionist, constitutionalist, Spanish nationalist, or whatever you want), you can read tons of remarkable nonsense... In short, there's a huge lack of rigor everywhere.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/08/opinion/1444320757_315511.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 15, 2015, 09:16:20 AM
Bad week for the PP: Arantza Quiroga (President of the Basque PP) resigns after her latest attempt to find a place for the PP in the Basque Country in a post-ETA scenario backfired and she was thoroughly criticised by her own party (as she did not consult Génova beforehand) forcing her out of her position. Cayatena Álvarez de Toledo, member of the hard right of the PP said in an interview she would not stand for election if Rajoy continues as candidate. Those controversial statements on the press made her colleagues really angry and she was shouted at at the end of yesterday's parliamentary session by her own party members for her 'betrayal'.

Meanwhile, Montoro was interviewed by El Mundo and he declared that within the party there are people who are 'ashamed' of belonging to the PP and probably refers to the suddenly more social tone the Government has taken for 2015, in an obviously electoralistic line. He also criticises the new generation of PP leaders, whom he feels undervalue the effort of this government on their attempt to widen the appeal of the PP from just 'the crisis is over' message and with their insistence on an ethical renewal of the party.

And then De Guindos has also announced that he will not continue as minister in the next legislature, "even if Rajoys asks me to".

The battle in the Basque Country is essentially a fight between the Sorayistas (Alfonso Alonso and the PP of Álava) and the Cospedal faction, of which Quiroga is a member (sort of, no official factions and all that). Although it is also a fight between the three provincial branches of the PP of Euskadi, basically Alava (Alonso, Oyarzabal) vs. Guipuzcoa & Vizcaya (Quiroga, Basagoiti), which also kind of a fight between the moderates who want the PP to move towards the centre and away from political irrelevance in the now post-ETA PP and the hardliners who want to continue with the Mayor Oreja and María an Gil years policy, which might not work so well as it once did after the demise of ETA.

In the meantime, 10/18 regional PP branches have no leader, as they have resigned, instead they are been led by interim gestoras, and that's 2 months away from the general elections.

And more, to round up today: Francisco Granados talks from prison, points at Aguirre and Ignacio González. Says that the Púnica is not a real operation, because there's still so much people to be detained. URL="http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html"]http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html[/URL]


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 15, 2015, 02:51:27 PM
Add this little affair to the list of troubles:

"Brussels ratifies report warning Spain over deficit target risks"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/13/inenglish/1444725703_984035.html

Quote
The European Commission has warned that Spain will not be able to meet its deficit reduction goals for this year and the next, and has called on the government to amend its 2016 budget accordingly after the general election.

“The commission foresees that Spain’s overall deficit would fall to 4.5% of GDP for this year, and for 3.55% in 2016, which would represent a failure to correct the excess before the end of 2016,” said the EC in a statement on Monday after finally ratifying its controversial report on the Spanish budget, the details of which EL PAÍS exclusively revealed last week(...)

Brussels added that whichever government emerges after the December 20 elections would have to revise the current plan to meet the goal of reducing the deficit to 2.8% for next year (...)

The point is that, aside that general opinion says the budget is unrealistic and will need to be revised, no Spanish government has ever passed a budget only a few months before the elections. It's like to tie the hands of the next administration. That report, of course, is a deadly blow for the government's complacency.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 26, 2015, 05:03:41 PM
Mariano Rajoy dissolves parliament.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/26/inenglish/1445875171_273653.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Monday sidestepped questions about his political future after signing a resolution formally dissolving parliament ahead of December’s general election.

In comments to reporters after giving a progress report on the achievements of his Popular Party (PP) administration, Rajoy declined to speculate on any plans to form a coalition government with the emerging conservative group Ciudadanos, which has gained strength since the regional and municipal elections in May (...)

Albert Rivera, the charismatic leader of Ciudadanos, has stated that he will demand Rajoy’s political head if it comes down to the PP and his own party holding discussions about forming a coalition.

When asked about these statements, the prime minister jokingly responded: “My head is well-placed and I am not going to let anyone remove it from where it is.” (...)

On Catalonia.

Quote
Addressing the Catalan political crisis created by premier Artur Mas’s independence drive, Rajoy said that he had no intention of including in his campaign platform any proposal for constitutional reform that might help diffuse the situation in the northeast region. Yet he acknowledged that the Catalan crisis was Spain’s second-biggest problem.

Asked if he was prepared to take emergency measures if the situation flared up while parliament was out of session, the prime minister admitted that he did have a plan.

“Yes, I have some plans – including those that you are thinking about – because that is my duty as a prime minister. Nevertheless in any case, I hope we do not have to take any such action,” he said.

Under the Constitution, the central government could suspend a region’s powers “in order to compel” it to “fulfill the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws.” However, prior approval by the Senate would be necessary (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 01, 2015, 01:54:47 PM
October polls.

Sigma Dos / Mediaset (15/10/15)

PP 27.4%, PSOE 23.7%, C's 18.1%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 4.1%, CDC 2.2%, PNV 1.5%, Others 8.3%

Invymark / La Sexta (19/10/15)

PP 28.6%, PSOE 23.9%, C's 18.3%, Podemos 13.5%, IU 3%, Others 12.6%

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (25/10/15)

PP 26%, PSOE 20.5%, C's 19.2%, Podemos 14.6%, IU 4.4%, Others 14.8%

Metroscopia / El País (28/10/15)

PP 23.5%, C's 22.5%, PSOE 21%, Podemos 17%, IU 6.3%, Others 9.7%

Projection of seats (Metroscopia): PP 93-100, PSOE 88-98, C's 72-84, Podemos 42-46, IU 5, Others 33-34


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 02, 2015, 03:59:30 AM
http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/20151029/75242536_0.html (http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/20151029/75242536_0.html)

Interesting article, with an average of polls and a prediction of seats. Also looks at the possibilities of coalition-building.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2015, 09:51:34 AM
Past week Catalan secessionist parties declared the beginning of the independence process:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/27/inenglish/1445940124_546366.html

Quote
The two separatist groups in the Catalan parliament have agreed on a document declaring “the beginning of the process to create an independent Catalan state.” (...)

On Tuesday PP, PSC and C's filed a joint appeal against the separatists' motion:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/03/inenglish/1446545121_442805.html

Quote
Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera on Tuesday confirmed that the 52 non-secessionist representatives in the Catalan parliament – the sum of Ciudadanos, the Catalan Socialists and the Catalan Popular Party (PP) – would on Wednesday file a joint appeal before the Constitutional Court to challenge the fact that the regional chamber has accepted a debate on the motion declaring the start of the independence process for the northeastern region.

This marks the first time that these parties have united in any meaningful way, underscoring how the separatist challenge is already changing Spanish politics and causing a shift in allegiances and priorities. (...)

As long as Catalan separatism is the heart of the debate, good news for C's and bad for PSOE and Podemos.

In other news, "mixed signals" from labor market:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/03/inenglish/1446540384_041032.html

Quote
he Spanish job market issued mixed signals in October. Unemployment rose by 82,327 individuals to reach 4.1 million, yet Social Security affiliations – considered a sign of job creation – also grew a monthly average of 31,652 for a total of 17,221,467 individuals, according to figures released by the Labor Ministry.

(4.1 million is the number of the officially registered unemployed. The Labour Force Survey -EPA- published every three months provides more realistic figures).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on November 03, 2015, 10:12:28 AM
Threshold is 5%?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: palandio on November 03, 2015, 10:48:47 AM
No de-iure threshold at all. The de-facto threshold comes from the province-based d'Hondt method seat allocation and varies between ca. 2.5% (Madrid) and ca. 25-30% (Soria). Most provinces have between 3 and 8 seats, so the de-facto threshold is ca. 10-20%. Regional parties like CDC, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG will get proportional representation, because they are strong in a few provinces. Relatively small parties with more equally distributed support like IU may get seats only in the big provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, even if they get over 5% nationally.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2015, 11:48:38 AM
No de-iure threshold at all. The de-facto threshold comes from the province-based d'Hondt method seat allocation and varies between ca. 2.5% (Madrid) and ca. 25-30% (Soria). Most provinces have between 3 and 8 seats, so the de-facto threshold is ca. 10-20%. Regional parties like CDC, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG will get proportional representation, because they are strong in a few provinces. Relatively small parties with more equally distributed support like IU may get seats only in the big provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, even if they get over 5% nationally.

There is a threshold. In order to win seats, only lists getting more than 3% are considered for the allocation of seats in every province. The 3% threshold only works de-facto in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona (36 and 31 seats, respectively). In the rest of provinces it works like you said.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on November 03, 2015, 12:46:21 PM
Thank you both of you guys.  I asked because of IU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 03, 2015, 03:32:45 PM
How efficient is the renovating IU vote? Is it diffuse or concentrated to a few odd provinces?

Also will the parties in Catalonia be the same as what was in the provincial election (I.e. CDC + ERC and Podemos+Greens+IU)?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2015, 06:54:48 PM
How efficient is the renovating IU vote? Is it diffuse or concentrated to a few odd provinces?

Also will the parties in Catalonia be the same as what was in the provincial election (I.e. CDC + ERC and Podemos+Greens+IU)?

I'd say the distribution of the IU vote tends to be diffuse. If you look at the 2008 election -the IU's nadir- is evident how the Spanish electoral system mistreats minor national parties. Then, IU only managed to win 2 seats getting 3.8% of the vote nationwide: 1 in Madrid and 1 in Barcelona (this one was for ICV, the IU's Catalan partner). Traditionally IU had a number of strong places such as Madrid, Asturias or some Andalusian provinces. Their chances of winning seats are basically reduced to that (add the Valencia province, being optimistic). 

CDC and ERC are going to run in their own in the Spanish General Election. As far as I know, the coalition between Podemos, ICV and IU stands in Catalonia*. On the other hand, the far-left separatist CUP has never ran in Spanish elections. The UDC will try to win a seat in the Spanish parliament, after their failure in the last regional election.

*Podemos wanted to forge alliances similar to that of Catalonia in regions like Valencia and Galicia, but I'm not sure if talks will succeed. In Valencia, the nationalist wing in Compromís is against a coalition with Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 04, 2015, 10:38:07 AM
Politikon now publishes in English too and they have two interesting voting analysis:

The core of Spanish parties

The fallout of traditional parties and the emergence of new alternatives has come to tear up the relative homogeneity that existed across PP and PSOE voters. The electoral demand has become more fragmented along with the segmentation of supply, but we are still far from a whole understanding of how and to what extent has this happened.

The capital importance of the left-right or centre-periphery cleavages to understand the electoral market is taken for granted. Probably that is why these divisions get so much attention (most of it well justified) by analysts, journalists and politicians. However, there are more ways to look at this supply-demand relationship. Age, occupational structure, labour market position… These relations have strategic consequences for parties. And although class vote has not historically been a determinant aspect of the party system, the situation might be evolving in that direction, at least to a certain extent.

The data

Every party depends on specific social profiles among others. These are their core constituencies. To locate it and compare it with the overall social profile of the Spanish population we should observe the distribution of its voters and sympathisers across a series of variables. This is not about who ‘wins’ among the young, the old, the rich or the personal services employees. It is about knowing which percentage of the party’s constituency corresponds to each category.

The distribution of supporters  across age gives a good and particularly relevant data point to understand the emerging party structure. The next panel shows such distribution for each of the five main parties competing at the national level. Together with the percentage that corresponds to each party and age group I annotate the difference (in percentage points) with respect to the distribution across the whole population.

()

For example, 11% of Podemos’ supporters have between 18 and 24 years, 2.8pp above the average of 8.2%. But even when the youngest Spaniards are overrepresented in Podemos more than in any other party, they are only the fifth largest age group in the platform. In any case, it is true that Iglesias’ is the youngest organisation. At the other extreme, 39% of people supporting the PP are older than 64 years. This represents 15.5pp more than the average. Spain has an aging population: 23.4% of it is above 64. But the “population” of the PP is so much older. Even more than for the PSOE, whose structure is also significantly skewed toward senior citizens.

As a matter of fact, “the party of those who do not work” might be a good tagline to define the PP: 46.4% of its supporters are not part of the active population*.

()

The PSOE comes right behind. Needless to say, this distribution is intimately related to age. New parties do not have more than 17% of non-active voters. Podemos looks like a coalition between insider and outsider-based households. Ciudadanos, on the other hand, is considerably more skewed towards self-employed and managers, keeping still a strong base of insiders, although quite different from that of Podemos as it will be shown below.

It won’t be much of a surprise that both insiders and the unemployed (for the PP) have lost importance among classic parties’ supporters, leaving the socialists and the conservatives as quite dependent from retired people.

()

Not all retirees are equal. It is now the right moment to dissection each portion of the previous graph, starting with the first bloc. The PSOE has much more qualified manual workers among their retired voters, but the PP has a larger concentration of old & new middle classes, as well as higher classes.

()

To a certain extent, this trend is maintained when we observe the composition of insider-led household members within each party. While supporters of the PP who work and live in a household whose reference person has an open-ended contract the are mostly qualified and semi-skilled service sector employees, among PSOE’s manual and unskilled workers have a much stronger presence, although they still fail to constitute a majority.

()

Ciudadanos complements the significant presence of managers and self-employed in its ranks with a large number of managers and qualified professionals, but also middle class workers occupied in the service sector. The profile of ‘household insiders’ among Podemos is relatively similar, with one important caveat: the increased presence of skilled workers relative to the average, offering a mixed profile.

Among managers and entrepreneurs, Ciudadanos shows as well a markedly higher profile, in this case measured by education level, with respect to other parties and the overall population.

()

The trend gets confirmed when outsiders’ composition (quick reminder: people who work and live in households where the reference person has a temporary contract or is unemployed): those who support Ciudadanos, Podemos & Izquierda Unida have a higher skill profile.

()

However, education is not everything. It is quite illustrative to observe that Podemos is the party where overqualified workers find themselves with more relative power: above 12% of the ‘purple’ supporters fall into this category.

()

Overqualified does not mean poor. Observing the supporters’ distribution depending on individual income, Podemos displays an above-average profile , only below Ciudadanos and (partially) IU. The communist-green coalition has two peaks: working class (presumably from Asturias and Andalusia) and gauche divine.

()

The socialists display the lowest income profile. This is clearly influenced by age structure, which does not change the fact that the PSOE voter is poorer. As a matter of fact, an alternative calculation excluding retired people from the data does not significantly change the displayed profile.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 04, 2015, 10:38:46 AM
Part 2:

The interpretation

All these data overload can be interpreted if the reader is willing to embark on adventurous hypothesis elaboration. A picture (or rather a useful caricature) of four prototypical parties emerge: the conservative (PP), the market-oriented reformist (Ciudadanos – C’s), the divided socialism (PSOE) and the angry youth party (Podemos).

Almost half of PP voters do not participate in the labour market. 40% are over 64 years old. Among the non-active people, middle and upper-middle classes constitute a clear majority (65%). Middle classes dominate as well among working age supporters. Its supporter with a manager status does not have a particularly high profile when it is compared with the average. But there are no overqualified people among its voters. From this point of view, the ‘adventurous hypothesis’ would be that PP supporters are those whose expectative not been dramatically affected by the crisis. In other words: those that can buy into its main campaigning message, based on “recovery is here, we have done what was needed, now it is not the right moment to experiment”.

The conservative position has not one but two nemeses. On the one side, Podemos is the party of those who radically oppose to the ‘success’ frame: there is no recovery, they seem to say, but a systemic crisis. Its supporters are way younger than those of other parties. Their income profile is a bit above the average, but 35% of them are either unemployed or have a temporary contract, contrasting with a slim 16% for the PP. Those workers in ‘outsider households’ are more skilled than the average. Therefore, it is not surprising that 12.6% of them is overqualified. Only a 18% is out of the economically active population. Around this core of ‘losers (of expectations)’, there is a cover of open-ended workers (32%) where both qualified technicians and manual workers reflect probably the vote absorbed from both socialists and communists. It looks like those who are not willing under any circumstance to assume the official narrative on crisis and recovery.

On the other side we find Ciudadanos, a party where, as in Podemos, most supporters are labour market participants (83%). And, as in Podemos, their profile is a bit younger than the average, although this time the 35-44 age group stands out. Nevertheless, outsiders are less than in Iglesias’ party (26%) and belong mostly to new middle classes, being substantially more qualified than those from other parties. As for insiders, middle and upper-middle classes from service sector are clearly overrepresented. As managers & employers, whose weight is at 11.3%. These are quite more skilled than the average, particularly when put against the PP managerial support. The class profile of Ciudadanos is clearly above that for other parties. Its reformist discourse squares well with the image of new middle classes, upper-middle classes and elites with a strong interest on advancing liberalization.

Among these three extremes, classic socialism has not found its place. It is clear that the age structure of PSOE’s supporters is more similar to the PP than to the rest. But these older, non-active people have a very different profile, with a clear majority of manual workers. The class-based differences are even more evident when observing the income profile of supporters: the PSOE is sharply below the rest. Despite the relative losses that the socialists have suffered from supporters with permanent contracts, they retain the largest core of industrial workers and unskilled. Many of their outsiders also belong to this category. The  socialist insistence on the idea of ​​”reindustrialization” is best understood under the light of this data, coupled with the fact that such voters also represent the core of militancy of the sister union, UGT. But they coexist with a huge number of working class retirees and with the highest representation of middle-low and low class among all parties. It is very difficult to build a coherent platform that leave them all well satisfied, let alone recovering lost voters or appealing to new ones. At the end of the day, the retirees has been the least affected social group in this crisis thanks to the structure of the Spanish welfare state, while the poorest working classes have taken a big blow that could have been cushioned with an alternative system. But under a heavy budget constraint it is not credible to suggest a change towards such alternative without assuming that there will be either spending cuts in other sections or tax increases. In addition, a considerable amount of people of lower middle and lower class have difficulty finding a decent position in the labor market in part because of our regulatory and welfare model, which benefits precisely the industrial working class voter. In short, a very hard puzzle.

*The division between those with permanent (insiders) and temporary (outsiders) contracts refers to the reference person in the household, who may or may not be the one questioned. This is due to the methodology followed by the CIS. Therefore, these categories represent actively working people who do not belong to any of the other categories, who are living in a household where either him or someone with higher income has a permanent contract or a temporary one. In most cases, if the reference person has a temporary contract, all other household members who work have it as well. But the opposite does not hold so often. Therefore, the bias introduced by the use of the question tends to reduce the representation of temporary workers. Whenever I make references to permanent, temporary workers, insiders or outsiders the reader must take this into account.

** From now on, the used samples tend to be smaller, which means that it is essential to take all the results with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on November 04, 2015, 01:21:53 PM
Great post(s), thank you for it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 05, 2015, 04:54:55 PM
CIS October survey (fieldwork, Oct 1-12)

()

54% of Spaniards has no confidence in Rajoy, according to CIS; nearly 29% of the respondents has little confidence in the PM. As for PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, 41% has little confidence and 35.5% no confidence at all.

In the news: "Constitutional Court rejects blocking Catalan independence motion vote"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/05/inenglish/1446747744_752094.html

Quote
Spain’s Constitutional Court has unanimously rejected blocking the debate and vote on the motion declaring the start of the independence process due to be held in the Catalan parliament on Monday following an appeal by opposition parties.

Although the court unanimously admitted the appeals presented by Ciudadanos (C’s), the Popular Party (PP) and the Catalan Socialists (PSC), it has refused to suspend the session as a precautionary measure, as the first two groups had requested.

Parliament was the “natural headquarters for political debate” and the result of that debate “should not condition the viability of that debate in advance,” the court said. That is why it believes it is unable to suspend the session (...)

Basque premier takes some distance with the Catalan 'process'.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446638204_560427.html

Quote
Basque regional premier Iñigo Urkullu said on Wednesday that Catalonia’s unilateral independence bid is not a model to follow for his own region.

Urkullu, of the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), said that a new European Union state cannot be created “overnight,” much less through the kind of unilateral declaration of independence designed by the Catalan separatists who won a majority of seats, though not of votes, at the September 27 regional election.

In statements made on SER radio station in Bilbao, Urkullu said he was aware that many Catalans have been angered by successive central governments in Madrid, and suggested that some of the separatist attitudes on display in Catalonia today have been caused by “the zero intelligence” displayed by the state in its treatment of Spain’s various cultural groups.

If the Basque Country, another traditional hotbed of nationalist sentiment, were ever to consider a breakaway from Spain, it would be as a result of dialogue with Madrid, he said.

But the person to enter into dialogue with is not current Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, he added. “Not the Rajoy I know.”

According to Urkullu, what Spain needs now is “a David Cameron who can dialogue in order to reach agreements and offer solutions (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on November 07, 2015, 12:00:13 PM
    So, if in fact the PP and Ciudadanos have close to a working majority in the new Cortes, would such a coalition be the most likely outcome?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 07, 2015, 04:03:48 PM
    So, if in fact the PP and Ciudadanos have close to a working majority in the new Cortes, would such a coalition be the most likely outcome?

Current average polling suggests that the most viable option is a PP minority government backed by C's. The orange party is very reluctant to enter in coalition governments, unless they are the main force. Also, Ciudadanos reclaims that PP must cut Mariano Rajoy's head before start speaking. Trend in last polls shows that oranges are rocketing, to the point that some people say they will give a surprise in the elections. There's a great volatility and it's hard to say if that progression will continue.

Wiki average polling:

()

In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

Quote
A former top-ranking military official will be running in Spain’s general election as a candidate for anti-austerity party Podemos.

General Julio Rodríguez Fernández, 67, was Chief of the Defense Staff from 2008 to late 2011, under the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

“He is going to be number two on the Zaragoza list, after Pedro Arrojo,” said Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias in a press conference on Wednesday (...)

The purple party is struggling to improve the downward trend after the failure in Catalan elections. I believe they'll have a hard time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 10, 2015, 12:48:01 PM
The vaudeville continues, overshadowing any other relevant issue:

"Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/09/inenglish/1447067955_007589.html

Quote
Exactly one year after Catalan separatists organized an informal referendum on self-rule, the regional parliament held a historic session to debate and vote on a motion to start breaking away from Spain.

A few minutes past noon, the Catalan parliament approved the controversial document with 72 votes in favor from separatist forces and 63 votes against from unionists (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on November 11, 2015, 01:52:24 AM
The vaudeville continues, overshadowing any other relevant issue:

"Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/09/inenglish/1447067955_007589.html

Quote
Exactly one year after Catalan separatists organized an informal referendum on self-rule, the regional parliament held a historic session to debate and vote on a motion to start breaking away from Spain.

A few minutes past noon, the Catalan parliament approved the controversial document with 72 votes in favor from separatist forces and 63 votes against from unionists (...)

Didn't the CUP explicitly say they would only support independence if 50% of the electorate voted in favoor of secessionists?

I think this is just a measure to get a better bargaining position. The Castillans will not take it like that though. It will no doubt toughen PP's and C's stances, while Podemos and PSOE will be seen as weak moderate heroes on the issue.

They've handed the general election agenda on a plate to the polarised views on peripheral independence. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 11, 2015, 07:54:47 AM
What are these Castillians you speak of?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 11, 2015, 08:52:20 AM

I think this is just a measure to get a better bargaining position. The Castillans will not take it like that though. It will no doubt toughen PP's and C's stances, while Podemos and PSOE will be seen as weak moderate heroes on the issue.

They've handed the general election agenda on a plate to the polarised views on peripheral independence. 

I'm not Castilian, but I can tell you that Catalan separatists are living in a sort of dreamlike state -we'll see how hard is the awakening- and the whole 'process' is nothing but a grotesque farce, which leads to a cul de sac that sadly is going to have serious consequences in the whole 'Spanish State'. On the other hand, Mariano Rajoy's administration has a heavy responsibility in this state of affairs. I think this man should have resigned for his incompetence in handling the problem and the corruption that rots the Popular Party, rottenness that has a clear counterpart in the Artur Mas' CDC.

However, corruption and other problems are going to be pushed to the background, apparently. As for the elections, polarisation favors Ciudadanos and PP to a lesser extent. Catalan separatists are fully aware of that, but they don't care because they have embarked on that delusion called procés sobiranista. On the other hand, even Artur Mas' skills as trickster are not enough to convince the CUP to vote for him to continue in the post of 'driver of the 'process'. Terrible and grotesque mess... It's possible that part of the support for separatism in Catalonia is motivated by the desire of achieving a better bargaining position with the 'Spanish State', but the development of events might not lead to that. One thing is clear for some people in this country: Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas are obstacles to solve the political problem. 



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on November 11, 2015, 09:40:47 AM
What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on November 11, 2015, 09:59:52 AM
In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

Quote
A former top-ranking military official will be running in Spain’s general election as a candidate for anti-austerity party Podemos.

General Julio Rodríguez Fernández, 67, was Chief of the Defense Staff from 2008 to late 2011, under the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

“He is going to be number two on the Zaragoza list, after Pedro Arrojo,” said Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias in a press conference on Wednesday (...)

This is confusing, given what I know of the Spanish Armed Forces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 11, 2015, 10:34:01 AM
What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence

Nanwe is from Valladolid, so I'm sure that he knows where is located Castile in the Spanish portion of the Iberian Peninsula. By the way, the 'Old Castile' (currently Castilla y León) is in the center-north, while the 'New Castile' (Castilla-La Mancha) lies in the center-south and Madrid is in the center-center of the Peninsula. The point is that saying that the rest of Spaniards are "Castilian" is fully incorrect. Another question is that Spanish language is called "Castilian" in Latin America and parts of Spain like Catalonia. I'm "Castilian speaking", but certainly not "Castilian" because I was born and live in another region and don't have family roots in that part of Spain.

In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

Quote
A former top-ranking military official will be running in Spain’s general election as a candidate for anti-austerity party Podemos.

General Julio Rodríguez Fernández, 67, was Chief of the Defense Staff from 2008 to late 2011, under the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

“He is going to be number two on the Zaragoza list, after Pedro Arrojo,” said Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias in a press conference on Wednesday (...)

This is confusing, given what I know of the Spanish Armed Forces.

I ignore what do you know, but Franco died a long ago and Spanish Armed Forces have changed a little bit since then. General Julio Rodríguez was considered close to PSOE and had a close working relationship with former Minister of Defence Carme Chacón, who is a woman from Catalonia. Apparently, the conservative Spanish government didn't like Mr Rodríguez's move. Current Minister of Defence criticised him for entering politics, in spite of the fact that the man is retired from active duty.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 11, 2015, 12:58:22 PM
What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence

Nanwe is from Valladolid, so I'm sure that he knows where is located Castile in the Spanish portion of the Iberian Peninsula. By the way, the 'Old Castile' (currently Castilla y León) is in the center-north, while the 'New Castile' (Castilla-La Mancha) lies in the center-south and Madrid is in the center-center of the Peninsula. The point is that saying that the rest of Spaniards are "Castilian" is fully incorrect. Another question is that Spanish language is called "Castilian" in Latin America and parts of Spain like Catalonia. I'm "Castilian speaking", but certainly not "Castilian" because I was born and live in another region and don't have family roots in that part of Spain.

Yes, indeed. Sorry about being cheeky, but I was at work and at a loss of words. 'Castilla' or 'castellano' is not a real ethnic or even identity criterion, if you want to distinguish between the people from the historic regions (Galicia, Cat., Basque C.), just mention, 'the rest of Spain' or 'Spaniards'. There is, beyond some groups like the Partido Comunero or the PCPE, so small that could practically be statistical errors, no Castillian identity. Most people in Castilla (which is indeed a geographical term, comprising CyL, CAM and C-LM) identify as from their city (or province at best) and then as Spaniards. This is similar to how English people don't really identify as English much, but even to a higher degree.

As Velasco puts it, not everyone who is a monolingual Spanish-speaker is 'culturally Castillian' (assuming that's a thing), but rather the opposite! As someone from Valladolid, I would probably feel closer in cultural terms to a Basque person than to say, someone from Seville or Tenerife.

EDIT: Actually, I'll correct myself, I do identify myself as Castillian but only when I'm taking part of that great Valladolid tradition of pretending like people from León are untermenschen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 12, 2015, 03:42:04 AM
Constitutional Court accepted a Government's appeal yesterday, triggering the suspension of the motion approved by the Catalan Parliament on Monday in order to begin the "breaking away process". The Court warns 21 high ranking Catalan officials -including acting premier Artur Mas and parliamentary speaker Carme Forcadell- that they must fulfill this decision and prevent any inititative ignoring it, but didn't accept the government's request on warning said officials that they face suspension.

Today acting premier Artur Mas faces the second investiture vote in the Parliament of Catalonia. In order to obtain parliamentary support from the CUP, Artur Mas offered to delegate powers creating three vice-presidencies that would be held by Neus Munté (CDC), Oriol Junqueras (ERC) and Raül Romeva (the JxSí top candidate in past elections). Officially the CUP persists in saying "no" to Mas, but apparently a 'moderate' faction is prone to accept some formula that permits incumbent premier to hold on office arguing that "many people wouldn't understand that Mas falls precisely now". Resolution in a few hours.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2015, 02:41:57 PM
I'm not paying attention to political developments, but there was a three-cornered debate between Mariano Rajoy's main challengers. There was an empty stand for the incumbent PM, who refused to attend.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/01/inenglish/1448958135_116203.html

Quote
The three main candidates aspiring to replace Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy at the December 20 election faced off against one another on Monday night in a debate that was the first of its kind in several ways.

Organized by EL PAÍS, it was the first Spanish election debate to be broadcast online rather than via television. The format also involved a break with the past, with contenders accepting questions from the audience for the first time.

The picture that emerged was one of changing political styles in a country where politics has been dominated by the same two parties since the 1980s

Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos and Pablo Iglesias of Podemos discussed jobs, welfare policies, territorial issues and political reform for nearly two hours. Popular Party leader Rajoy was conspicuously absent from the debate after declining EL PAÍS’ invitation and attempting to send his deputy instead (...)

Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría will attend a similar debate in Antena 3 TV, while Mr. Rajoy will face the official leader of the opposition (Pedro Sánchez) alone in another upcoming TV debate.

According to internet users following the debate, Pablo Iglesias was the winner. You know that internet polls are internet polls. I didn't follow that, so I can't give an opinion.

Average polling at Electograph (as of Nov 30):

PP 27.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 19.8%, Podemos* 14.9%, IU** (UP) 4.2%

* Including regional coalitions in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia

** IU is disguised as Unidad Popular ("Popular Unity") in coalition with minor parties.

General Election poll for Catalonia (GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya on Nov 28)

En Comú Podem (ECP= Podemos + ICV + EUiA + Barcelona en Comú) 19.4% (9-10 seats)

C's 18.4% (8-10 seats)

ERC 18.1% (9-11 seats)

PSC-PSOE 17.4% (8-9 seats)

Democràcia i Llibertat ("Democracy and Freedom"= CDC and minor parties) 14.1% (7-8 seats)

PP 8.8% (3-4 seats)

Others 3.8%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on December 02, 2015, 12:22:54 PM
    Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FredLindq on December 02, 2015, 01:40:26 PM
Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2015, 04:19:50 PM
Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.

The electoral system penalizes third national parties in small districts. However, this effect might be damped in case the four main parties surpass 15% of the vote nationwide.

Last GESOP poll for all Spain (I already posted the estimation for Catalonia) shows the following percentages and projection of seats (which is a very approximate estimate; it's impossible to translate accurately vote percentages into seats):

PP 23.9% PSOE 21.4%, C's 21%, Podemos 16%, IU 4.9%, ERC 2.7%, DL (CDC) 2%, Others 8.1%

PP 98-102 seats, PSOE 82-86, C´s 76-80, Podemos 52-56, ERC 9-11, DL 7-8, IU 4-6, Others 11-15

Note that ERC and DL (CDC) are regional parties that only run in the four Catalan provinces, whereas IU runs nationwide and its vote is scattered in a greater number of districts.

The last GAD3 poll has the following figures:

PP 28.3%, PSOE 23.1%, C's 17.4%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 4%, ERC 2.5%, DL (CDC) 2.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.4%. EHBildu 1.3%

Seats: PP 125, PSOE 91, C's 59, Podemos 41, ERC 9, DL 9, EAJ-PNV 5, EHBildu 5, IU 3...

I would insist on the usual inaccuracy of seat projections; they only give an approximation.

Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!

At the very least UDC would be virtually dead, regardless if the party still exists.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 03, 2015, 07:40:12 AM
CIS November survey

PP 28.6% (120-128 seats)

PSOE 20.8% (77-89 seats)

C's 19% (63-66 seats)

Podemos + allies 15.7% (45-49 seats)

Podemos 9.1% (23-25), ECP 3.2% (10-11), Compromís-Podem 2.1% (7), En Marea 1.3% (5-6)

IU (Unidad Popular) 3.6% (3-4 seats)

Regional parties:

CDC (Democràcia i Llibertat) 2.2% (9 seats)

ERC 1.9% (7 seats)

EHBildu 1.2% (6-7 seats)

EAJ-PNV 1.1% (5 seats)

CC 0.3% (1 seat)

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/12/03/21679134b4464ad41e54d8042deb43a8.pdf

Regional alliances:

PP is allied with UPN in Navarre, PAR in Aragon and FAC in Asturias

PSOE is allied with NC in the Canary Islands

Podemos runs in coalition outfits in the following regions: Catalonia (ECP), Valencia (with Compromís) and Galicia (En Marea)

IU is allied with CHA in Aragon. In Catalonia is part of the ECP (with Podemos, ICV and BComú), while in Galicia (if I'm not wrong) IU is part of En Marea.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 03, 2015, 05:43:04 PM
So I tried to map, by the CIS' own poll, a map of Spain. I also used the figures from europaspress and Kiko LLaneras' own figures to try and determine the most voted party to shade the provinces. I decided to always use the likelier number of seats whenever the CIS showed two possibilities (so 2 if it said 2-3 and 3 if it predicted 3-2, obviously this is more than open to change). Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2015, 05:43:08 AM
Nice work, very interesting.

Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

Indeed. It's interesting the data on the undecided voters and group ages. There is a clear generation gap (and between the town and the country). The difference with regard to other polls is that the CIS sample is massive (more than 17,000 nationwode), so on paper the projection is more adjusted. Still, some provincial results seem a bit strange to me.

The raw polling data in the CIS survey is the following:

PP 16.2%, PSOE 14.9%, Podemos + alliances 11.8%, C's 11.6%, IU (UP) 2.6%, ERC 1.7%, CDC (DL) 1.2%, EHBildu 0.7%, PNV 0.7%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 04, 2015, 07:48:38 AM
It's a pity that the CIS did not publish the predicted percentages per province, only the seats...

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2015, 09:36:14 AM
Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 05, 2015, 07:14:10 AM
If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 05, 2015, 01:35:36 PM
Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.

It is surprising, but perhaps it's that C's is surfing the anti-establishment wave at the right time, whereas Podemos did it too early? In any case, indeed, a handful of votes is going to determine whether the emergent parties manage to obtain or not seats in the medium sized constituencies. A bad result and they can be screwed royally, whereas if they manage they can obtain spectacular results, the 20D is going to be an amazing night.

Catalonia is impossible to predict. In Tarragona six parties win one seat each. That's just crazy. I think the PP thinks that the danger of C's in the rural medium is very, very real, which is why they have put forward so many proposals that are only attractive to the rural voter.

If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?

So far, and until the 27th of December, when the CUP's National Assembly meets, they won't support Mas. In any case, they probably won't support him and already JxS is tearing itself apart and the CDC leaders (Homs, Mas Colell) are backpedaling faster than Indurain ever did... So most likely option? Elections again in Catalonia in early 2016.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 11, 2015, 06:07:37 AM
At last,according to CIS,voters are identifying Ciudadanos as a center-right party.
On a range from 0 (hard left) to 10 (hard right),it has passed in the last year from 5,17 to 6,37.
PSOE is around 4,PP around 8(!!).

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/10/actualidad/1449775061_273418.html (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/10/actualidad/1449775061_273418.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 11, 2015, 09:10:42 AM
Spain is strange country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 11, 2015, 04:13:59 PM

How so?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Beezer on December 12, 2015, 05:10:45 AM
Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 13, 2015, 01:18:41 PM

For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 13, 2015, 03:07:44 PM
Mostly they're just populist garbage. But when the other parties on offer are borderline criminal conspiracies or actual cults (sometimes both!) I guess the appeal is no great mystery.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 13, 2015, 04:51:33 PM

For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.

Well, not everyone is on the far-right like you.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 14, 2015, 05:09:41 AM
Depiction of this legislature:

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on December 14, 2015, 08:48:02 PM

For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.

Well, not everyone is on the far-right like you.

touche!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 15, 2015, 06:51:20 AM
Andorra's El Periòdic d'Andorra is polling these days and until Sunday the changing preferences in music tastes in Spain, since publishing polls is not allowed this week.

La PPuerta de Alcalá 25,4% (104-108 encuestados)
Una Rosa es Una Rosa 20,9% (81-85 encuestados)
Ghostbusters – The Purples 19% (63-67 encuestados)
Ciudadanos de un lugar llamado Mundo 17,2% (57-61 encuestados)
La Unión – Vuelve el Amor 4,8% (3-5 encuestados)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 15, 2015, 07:03:13 AM
lmao, that's amazing


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Beezer on December 15, 2015, 07:38:06 AM
Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 15, 2015, 08:10:26 AM
Happens all the time in Italy,with horseraces instead of music tastes.

Anyway,I read that Sanchez went all-in in yesterday's debate...
"Spain needs a decent PM,and you (Rajoy) are not a decent person".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 15, 2015, 01:27:27 PM
Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?

Emotional  appeal , effective campaign, good performance in debates, the  effect oficial regional alliances , mistakes made  by rivals... we  have a volatile scenario and  many undecided voters , so any event in the campaign may   change the parties fortunes in one way or another ...




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 16, 2015, 08:36:57 AM
Today, El Periodic decided to report on the preferences (and prices) of Andorrans in the street markets of Andorra la Vella. About 700-750 people went to the market today.

The number of stands selling each product are in between brackets.

The prices are outrageous though.

Water 25.4€ (106-110)
Strawberries 20.6€ (81-85)
Aubergines 19.6€ (66-70)
Oranges 16.3€ (54-58)
Tomatoes 4.5€ (3-5)

Data provided by the Gestora Estatal de Suministros y Oferta de Productos (GESOP).

It remains hard to believe that the price of oranges can go down so quickly in two days or that the price of aubergines can skyrocket so quickly. We'll have to wait until the shops close for Sunday to know


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 16, 2015, 08:51:35 AM
Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 16, 2015, 09:17:21 AM
Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Could be the polling, could be a bad polling day, could be some bias... It's hard to tell. Especially since many, many voters won't decide until last moment.

It's indeed unlikely that they are collapsing so fast... but they have made some stupid mistakes last week with the whole gender violence comments on the debate of 9 parties last week. My personal opinion is that C's, PSOE and Podemos will be neck on neck in between 22-18% of the votes, with the PSOE most likely to remain (narrowly in terms of votes, not so on seats) the second one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 16, 2015, 09:27:43 AM
The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 16, 2015, 09:40:57 AM
The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?

According to this article (http://www.abc.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/abci-mayoria-absoluta-pp-senado-podria-clave-proxima-legislatura-201512132243_noticia.html), it is rather likely. Although the Senate uses SNTV, not FPTP. That the Senate would be controlled by the PP is not a problem for ordinary laws, it is however a major problem for constitutional reform or the application of Article 155.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 16, 2015, 02:12:51 PM
El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 16, 2015, 02:26:15 PM
El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


I guess any liberal (both socially and economically) party in Europe. Like .nowoczesna in Poland. In published today poll by IBRIS they got... 30%. They increased their support by 20% during one month so I guess it is a rise. But this is special case, probably not connected with any global process.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FredLindq on December 16, 2015, 02:48:45 PM
El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


FDF?! You mean FDP in Germany?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 16, 2015, 03:17:50 PM
No, I mean the Belgian party. They are now called Défi and are mainly Brussels-based. Used to be part of our mainstream centre-right.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 16, 2015, 03:29:42 PM
Could the Alliance Party of NI count?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Beezer on December 16, 2015, 04:21:27 PM
Rajoy punched by random guy on the street. Spanish Secret Service apparently asleep at the wheel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3VwLjHG2LM8


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 17, 2015, 06:52:27 AM
Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 17, 2015, 01:40:16 PM
Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Interestingly, Tomato leader Alberto Garzón has a good approval rate and his rallies are crowded. However, his popularity does not guarantee a good price for the product in the market.

The difference between failure and success is number 5 (seats required to form a parliamentary group).

Maybe Aubergines didn't want to bundle heir wares with Tomatoes, because of electoral marketing strategy. According to that, they wanted to pick in the Strawberry grounds and Tomatoes didn't a lot to help.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2015, 01:44:56 PM
Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 17, 2015, 03:40:06 PM
Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.

It is. However let's be wary of just one poll. Because this is just one, with a small number of people asked (I think for this one about 600) and without time to do much (after all they are being published daily), so I think that while C's might be going down since last week, it's hard to believe it's going down at 0.4 pp. a day. It's more likely that it wont end at 19-20% as expected last week, but rather at 17-18, or at worst 16-17. Mind you, this makes the situation highly volatile, because 15% is the de facto threshold for the medium-sized constituencies and the current scenario neither PP+C's, PSOE+C's or PSOE+Podemos(+IU) would have a majority. It'd be ideal for constitutional reform, or for a brief legislature... Or for some kind of new party system coalition with the nationalists (can you imagine some weird PP+C's+PNV or PP+C's+DiL, or PSOE+Podemos+DiL??)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2015, 04:51:37 PM
Rajoy punched by random guy on the street. Spanish Secret Service apparently asleep at the wheel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3VwLjHG2LM8

I wonder how much this helps PP?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 17, 2015, 05:13:14 PM
What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 17, 2015, 06:32:30 PM
What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 17, 2015, 07:19:47 PM
What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.

Yes, honestly, IU for as much as they want to pretend they are like in times of Anguita and whatnot, stil suffer the scars of their brief flirting with social democracy under Llamazares, and they seem pretty content with their irrelevant but right position in the incoming elections. Also, IU is not so much a party as a coalition of loads of parties, which makes internal decision-making rather byzantine, which is why open systems within IU for choosing all the deputies, like Podemos sort of does (and I say sort of, because Iglesias likes to put his cool people here and there, bypassing the assemblies) , because that would break the internal equilibrium between the various parties and groups that form IU. Garzón is a really good candidate and IU is all over the place in Twitter but they are simply seen as old. Indeed, Garzón fits better in Podemos (if further left than Iglesias, I'd say) than in the old IU... But then again IU is an old party and Garzón has done a great job at saving the party from the depths of oblivion it seemed to have reached with Cayo Lara's incompetent leadership.

But then again, IU always has this working-class (probably retired by now) people who have always voted IU (or ICV) and will do until they die inherited from when it was just the PCE. So that will always guarantee them some support, but as Velasco says, they must reach 5 seats, if they fall below that and enter the Mixed Group, they'll be politically irrelevant in Parliament, and that could mean their doom.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 17, 2015, 07:27:31 PM
I feel kinda sad that "pop" Podemos has such big support and old-school communists now have only 4% in polls. Eh, postpolitics :I


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 18, 2015, 12:13:14 AM
Though, it does seem to be up to the regional groups to make coalitions or not. The Catalan and Gallican branches of IU have joined the Podemos front groups.

MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 18, 2015, 12:18:58 AM
lol what is this:

Quote
An El País article described Spain's shorter, stockier, brunette Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría as a "beast" on Wednesday, comparing her to a several-inches-taller, slim, blonde Dutch top model called Milou: "The beast is Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, Deputy Prime Minister. Beast because, like in the tale, she is the one who seduces and holds the power". Journalist Cristian Segura wrote he would prefer that his daughter "chose to be the beast, more than anything else because Milou must suffer terribly to stay in that shape". He recommended Milou fatten up a bit by eating some "calorific" Spanish chick-pea stew. The two met at a photo-op for Spanish bridal wear firm Pronovias.

I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 18, 2015, 06:56:11 AM
How possible is orangewater as national drink after the election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 18, 2015, 09:00:08 AM
MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?

I don't  think so. That distant relative of Rajoy' s wife is just a brainless teenager. Sadly, the incident  helps PP. On the other hand , the conservative party is making a good campaign that has achieved a little miracle humanizing  Rajoy.

lol what is this:

Quote
An El País article described Spain's shorter, stockier, brunette Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría as a "beast" on Wednesday, comparing her to a several-inches-taller, slim, blonde Dutch top model called Milou: "The beast is Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, Deputy Prime Minister. Beast because, like in the tale, she is the one who seduces and holds the power". Journalist Cristian Segura wrote he would prefer that his daughter "chose to be the beast, more than anything else because Milou must suffer terribly to stay in that shape". He recommended Milou fatten up a bit by eating some "calorific" Spanish chick-pea stew. The two met at a photo-op for Spanish bridal wear firm Pronovias.

I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4



That article is really weird, but  I don't judge  the attitude of Americans according to what  Rush  Limbaugh  says .

The statements of that C's candidate and some stances on gender violence suggest that maybe oranges don't fit  exactly in the 'social liberal' label .

Rajoy's response speaks for itself and reflects a mentality. Shame.

Funnily enough the bearded guy in the video is not really a hipster but  a PP  councilor  devotee of the Virgin  of El  Rocío  and bullfighting aficionado.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 18, 2015, 09:22:53 AM
Could an Orange is the New Blue coalition push out Rajoy in favour of a more palatable PM? (Santamaria?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 18, 2015, 09:55:30 AM
Water 25.8€ (107-111)
Strawberries 21.4€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 16€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.8€ (2-4)

Today's polling.

I honestly do think that Ciudadanos is a social liberal party, however a) it's a new party ans has it still has to create discipline in its ranks and also, there's a certain difference between Ciudadanos and Ciutadans.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2015, 12:24:37 PM
Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

That may have made my day...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2015, 09:55:41 PM
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2015, 09:56:45 PM
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 19, 2015, 04:03:48 AM
()

European elections

()

Local (for bigger cities) and regional elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 19, 2015, 08:41:33 AM
Market prices in Andorra today:

Water 26.6 (111-115 stands )

Strawberries 20.8 (82-86)

Aubergines 20.1 (70-74)

Oranges  15.5  (47-51)

Tomatoes  4.4 (2-4)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 19, 2015, 09:02:02 AM
What are the main party pledges/platforms?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Sol on December 19, 2015, 06:07:41 PM
Why is Asturias so left-wing?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ObserverIE on December 19, 2015, 06:12:49 PM

Coal and heavy industries, early exposure to Franquismo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturias#History (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturias#History)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 19, 2015, 06:55:02 PM
Why is Murcia such an island of blue in an otherwise red south of Spain?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 20, 2015, 06:19:43 AM
Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646
Interesting, thanks.

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?
Austrian NEOS.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RedPrometheus on December 20, 2015, 07:57:10 AM
Is there any place to see the results?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 07:58:34 AM
Madrid (DPA) -- The northern Spanish village of Villarroya completes its voting in Sunday's parliamentary elections within a minute, before most of the country's polling stations had even opened.
There are six registered voters in the village, out of a population of six, all of whom had agreed to meet at the polls as soon as they opened, a local spokesman said.
Their action broke a 2014 record in European Parliament voting, when they needed two minutes for everyone to vote.

-> Sounds a lot like Dixville Notch, New Hampshire


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 08:20:18 AM
Tonight's last report from Andorra:

Water 26.6 (112-116)

Aubergines 21.4  (80-84)

Strawberries 20.1 (76-80)

Oranges 15.3  (45-49)

Tomatoes 4 (1-3)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 09:31:35 AM
37% OF SPAIN ELECTORATE VOTED AS OF 2PM, PRELIMINARY DATA SHOW


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2015, 10:07:58 AM
37% OF SPAIN ELECTORATE VOTED AS OF 2PM, PRELIMINARY DATA SHOW

2015: 37.03%
2011: 37.88%

Total turnout in 2011: 69%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 10:08:56 AM
Turnout at 2 P.M: 37.02% (2011: 37.88% -final 68.94%)  (2008: 40.46% -final 73.85%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2015, 10:19:45 AM
My predictions:

Water 27.5%
Strawberries 21.6%
Aubergines 19.9%
Oranges 15.2%
Tomatoes 3.9%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 10:43:09 AM
I'm not going to predict seats or anything, but I will say:

Orange-flavoured water coalition. Aubergines more popular than strawberries. Tomatoes disappear in the mixed group. UpyD get below the animal rights party. ERC randomly beats CDC in Catalonia, with Cataln strawberries and water in single digits. Christ knows what happens in Basque areas, but I'm going to say Podemos beat Bildu for second. Podemos win Valencia. Madrid is C's second best area. Andulacia held by PSOE.

Then C's undergo a Lib Dem like collapse while in government and are outfoxed by PP in every relevant way. Rajoy and Rivera spectacularly mishandle Catalonia, and it slips away before the next election. I assume they will also (somehow) alienate every other vaguely powerful nationalist as well with their heavy handedness (Basques and Galica have elections next year, I see :) ). Podemos experiences a leftist revolt against Pablo (possibly involving the radical mayors?), and are quashed. PSOE undergoes sould-searching and chaos, and the Australasian Premier replaces Sanchez. All remaining talent in IU and their regional parties jump to Podemos led front groups.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 10:46:24 AM
final prediction:

Water             28%
Aubergines    21%
Strawberries  20%
Oranges         14%

turnout: 67%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on December 20, 2015, 12:00:24 PM
The predictions here all seem to think that water costs more than the market indicates. Does water have a history of being undervalued by the market or something?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 20, 2015, 12:03:59 PM
PP 26%
PSOE 23%
Podemos 20%
Ciudadanos 16%
IU 4%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 12:35:44 PM
 Turnout 58.3% at 6pm vs 57.7% in 2011, Govt Says


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Double Carpet on December 20, 2015, 12:52:20 PM
Official results will appear here:

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

Does anyone have a link for streaming TV coverage online that won't be geoblocked?

Thanks!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Double Carpet on December 20, 2015, 01:02:39 PM
ok, found this:

http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/

RTVe 1 seems to be geoblocked?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 20, 2015, 01:52:59 PM
Hi guys! I'm back to follow this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 02:01:04 PM
So Podemos more votes than PSOE but less MPs? Lol.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 20, 2015, 02:05:13 PM
RTVe has PP + C's eight seats short of a majority

Oh dear...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 20, 2015, 02:06:24 PM
RTVe has PP + C's eight seats short of a majority

Oh dear...
Not even a grosse koalition...a huge coalition would be needed then.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Double Carpet on December 20, 2015, 02:08:43 PM
Gut feel but may be wrong:

Wouldn't be surprised if exits have understated PP and overstated Podemos compared to final result.

So PP minority govt with conf & supply from C's plus one or two nationalists may be possible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 20, 2015, 02:09:00 PM
Where are you following the results? The Interior website still has 0% counted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 02:11:08 PM
http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/
Link from the previous page : )


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 20, 2015, 02:16:55 PM
http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/
Link from the previous page : )

It's not working for me...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 02:19:33 PM
RTVe has PP + C's eight seats short of a majority

Oh dear...

Perhaps PP-Socialist grand alliance to keep out P and separatists


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 20, 2015, 02:31:51 PM
Options:
- PP + PSOE; both corrupt, power-hungry parties that want to ensure the government's "job machine" will stay within the same hands
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- PSOE + Podemos + C's (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- New elections?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on December 20, 2015, 02:43:01 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-election-exit-polls-idUSKBN0U30UB20151220?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews


Reuters is calling it a "win" for PP, which is a bit strange because now they have to cede a lot of their agenda, especially if it's with the Socialists.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 02:51:48 PM
()
()

Some exit polls for Catalonia and Basque Country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ObserverIE on December 20, 2015, 02:55:32 PM
Options:
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)

Do Bildu take their seats in the Cortes?

Apart from the Canarian Coalition, who may or may not take a seat, none of the remaining nationalist parties are likely to find a PP/C arrangement palatable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:05:00 PM
Options:
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)

Do Bildu take their seats in the Cortes?

Apart from the Canarian Coalition, who may or may not take a seat, none of the remaining nationalist parties are likely to find a PP/C arrangement palatable.

Yes , Bildu MPs will  take their seats.

No way. Only CC could support such arrangement. It'd be a PP minority government in any case.

Booths closed in the Canaries at 8:00 GMT. From now on, official results will appear in the Interior website.

LOL Convergencia  :D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:08:44 PM
()
Some exit polls for Catalonia and Basque Country.
En Comu is Podemos in Catalonia, isn't it?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:10:04 PM
Podemos (or rather Podem) + Allies.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:11:48 PM
Yes . En Comu Podem is Podemos , ICV , EUiA (IU) and Barcelona en Comu.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:13:19 PM
Podemos (or rather Podem) + Allies.
Yes . En Comu Podem is Podemos , ICV , EUiA (IU) and Barcelona en Comu.
Thanks.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:16:39 PM
Largest party in each region so far.
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2015, 03:18:39 PM
Voters choose chaos it is then.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:20:28 PM
PSOE so far doing better than polls and exit polls,  C doing worse.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:22:40 PM
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:25:24 PM
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?

I doubt C will join up with Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:27:11 PM
Count at 25%:

PP 125 seats , PSOE 96,  Podemos 63, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, UP (IU) 2

As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?

Ciudadanos is right of the centre and won 't support such arrangement because Podemos is in favour of holding a referendum in Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:27:41 PM
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?
What do you understand?
PSOE are centre-left, Podemos are left wing and Ciudadanos are centre-left; People's Party are centre-right. The question being is it plausible that those three could do a deal with each other to keep the People's Party out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:29:23 PM
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?
Ciudadanos is right of the centre and won 't support such arrangement because Podemos is in favour of holding a referendum in Catalonia.
Fair enough.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:32:08 PM
32,71% counted

PP 121
PSOE 95
Podemos 54
C's 31


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:32:23 PM
So far PP-C and PSOE-Podemos are exactly tied in seats at 155 ... wow


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:33:36 PM
32,71% counted

PP 121
PSOE 95
Podemos 54
C's 31

Should not COMPROMÍS-PODEMOS-ÉS EL MOMENT also count toward the Podemos ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:34:44 PM
 PSOE-Podemos now pulling ahead of PP-C in terms of seats


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:36:39 PM
PSOE-Podemos now pulling ahead of PP-C in terms of seats
Still not a majority though, some of the smaller parties may become important in determining who forms the government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:37:58 PM
32,71% counted

PP 121
PSOE 95
Podemos 54
C's 31

Should not COMPROMÍS-PODEMOS-ÉS EL MOMENT also count toward the Podemos ?

They should, missed them.

40,10%
PP 118
PSOE 96
Podemos 64
C's 31


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:38:45 PM
Seats with count at 42.7%

PP 122, PSOE 98, Podemos 70, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:40:03 PM
Seats with count at 42.7%

PP 122, PSOE 98, Podemos 70, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2
PSOE+Pod = 168 (8 short of majority)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:40:21 PM
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 20, 2015, 03:45:42 PM
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?

On the graphic on the top left if you put your mouse over the furthest right part of the semicircle, which is in grey, it says "7 sin asignar" which means "7 unassigned". Now I don't know why those 7 seats haven't been given to any party yet but that is what it says.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:49:39 PM
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?
It's gone from the graphic now, might have been an error(?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:49:52 PM
52,04%

PP 124, PSOE 96, Podemos 64, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2

I am amazed how fast they are counting that votes, in Poland we have partial results after midnight or later :I


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:50:07 PM
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?

On the graphic on the top left if you put your mouse over the furthest right part of the semicircle, which is in grey, it says "7 sin asignar" which means "7 unassigned". Now I don't know why those 7 seats haven't been given to any party yet but that is what it says.

Thanks a bunch.  It seems all 7 are "assigned" now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on December 20, 2015, 03:50:49 PM
2 network live streams not geoblocked (in Spanish)

http://www.cuatro.com/en-directo/

http://www.lasexta.com/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:53:17 PM
Looks like PP-C is coming back a bit.  They might catch up.  It will depend on Madrid it seems.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:55:59 PM
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:57:36 PM
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on December 20, 2015, 03:59:12 PM
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:00:52 PM
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.
That would put PSOE+Podemos at 163.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:01:42 PM
PSOE+Podemos 163 PP-C 159.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:02:29 PM
What is CATSI? (As in, ERC-CATSI?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:02:37 PM
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.

As for 66,78% counted they still have 62.
PP 123 PSOE 94 C's 36


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:03:22 PM
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 160 !!!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:04:06 PM
Results seems to be converging toward exit polls results


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on December 20, 2015, 04:05:53 PM
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.

As for 66,78% counted they still have 62.
PP 123 PSOE 94 C's 36


41+12+9+6=68. Yes?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 20, 2015, 04:07:05 PM

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:08:41 PM
If it's dependent on regional parties, C's will never be part of the government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:10:31 PM
I am disgusted by the speed of votes counting. Seriously.
75%
PPC's - 160, PSOEDEMOS - 162


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 04:11:16 PM
Options:
- PP + PSOE; both corrupt, power-hungry parties that want to ensure the government's "job machine" will stay within the same hands
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- PSOE + Podemos + C's (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- New elections?

PP and C will not ally with nationalists. They just signed a pact reiterating their opposition to Catalan devolution, which is what harmed C's in peripheries like Andalucia. Anybody who jumps into bed with Rajoy is a pariah to nationalists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:12:44 PM

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies

Of course, although I do feel the bloc (PSOE+Podemos or PP-C) that comes ahead will have the advantage when it comes to government formation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 20, 2015, 04:13:43 PM

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies

Of course, although I do feel the bloc (PSOE+Podemos or PP-C) that comes ahead will have the advantage when it comes to government formation.
Seeing how much the landscape is changing, I don't think this reasoning is really true, this time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:13:48 PM
From the Spanish TV network:
()

Who are IU-UP?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:14:03 PM
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 20, 2015, 04:15:41 PM
Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:15:58 PM
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde
Thanks.

Possibly ERC haven't done so well, as the pro-independence Catalans are putting their support being Podemos in the hope of getting a referendum?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 04:16:06 PM
From the Spanish TV network:
()

Who are IU-UP?

Izquierda Unida and an affiliate.

Funny how they form the colours of the Republican flag.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:20:46 PM
80%
PPC's - 160 PSOE-Pod. 161
UPyD still loses to the animal party with cute cow/bull on logo


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on December 20, 2015, 04:20:54 PM
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde
Thanks.

Possibly ERC haven't done so well, as the pro-independence Catalans are putting their support being Podemos in the hope of getting a referendum?

ERC is not Mas' party.  That would be DiL.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 04:20:56 PM
How many of the 9 seats from ERC-Catalunya so que ES pot on the list are part of Podemos (the latter, so que ES pot is Podemos in Catalonia)?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 20, 2015, 04:21:45 PM
Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?
We're pretty much all in the dark here.

Left-wing, in any way : PSOE+Podemos+ERC+IU-UP(Izquierda Unida - Unidad Popular)+EHBildu = 173
Right-wing, in any way : PP+C's+DiL+EAJ/PNV+CC = 177, but it's impossible.

Absolute majority at 176.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 04:23:43 PM
Guys, nationalists cannot be separated into left or right camps, and this isn't like Scandinavian election where all the left or right aggregate. This is a first in Spain and we should treat it as such. There is no way the left-right divide stands though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:24:26 PM
Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?

It would put C's in a tight spot. (well any government would put C's in a tight spot, considering they are a transparently vacant party) PODEMOS support a referendum in Catalonia, which C's oppose under all circumstances.

I've gotta admit a lot of my predictions were right, but the closeness still surprises me. Perhaps Sanchez will be PM, although I doubt he will be for very long.

It seems the key is DL/PNV IMO. I wonder what demands they will make of the government?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:26:01 PM
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde
Thanks.

Possibly ERC haven't done so well, as the pro-independence Catalans are putting their support being Podemos in the hope of getting a referendum?

ERC is not Mas' party.  That would be DiL.
Just checked Mas's CDC is part of the DiL alliance (as you say), which is where I got muddled.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:29:30 PM
Wow El Pais wbsite gives results down to municipality. that's hot as fyck


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:31:57 PM
PSOE+Podemos 162 (42.81% vote share) PP-C 160 (42.36% vote share)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:33:16 PM
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:33:44 PM
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?

Most likely FPTP


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:34:06 PM
That map on El Pais looks bad. Why people do such things. Worse than UK map made from hexes on BBC as far as I remember.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:35:11 PM
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 161


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:36:29 PM
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.59%) PP-C 162 (42.43%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:36:36 PM
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?

Most likely FPTP
That would explain it - I didn't realise it was FPTP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:38:19 PM
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?

demented bloc voting system. It mainly is a problem if the parties wanted to jig the constitution (like, for instance, changing the demented voting system or abolishing the useless upper house, which is worthless even by other nation's upper house's standards. Bicameralism is a plague.)

(also for some reason, only 10% of the Senate votes have been counted, while 80% of the lower house has)

That map on El Pais looks bad. Why people do such things. Worse than UK map made from hexes on BBC as far as I remember.

graphic designers need work, i guess.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 20, 2015, 04:52:01 PM
For the Senate : "Each voter may mark up to three candidates' names, from any party. This is the only occasion when Spanish voters vote for individuals rather than a party list. Panachage is allowed, but typically voters cast all three votes for candidates of a single party. As a result, the four Senators are usually the three candidates from the most popular party and the first placed candidate from the next most popular."

Four senators are elected for each province, regardless of population.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:56:48 PM
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 05:00:26 PM
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 05:04:07 PM
Well, if we follow from the elections in May, C's are more likely to support PP governments' and C's agenda (heavy income and corporate tax cuts; municipal reduction; Austrian labour laws etc.) would be very hard to implement with PSOE and PODEMOS as partners ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 20, 2015, 05:04:08 PM
I still think PSOE and Podemos could gather enough support with Catalan (and Basque ?) nationalists to form government on promises of referendum(s). It's the only shot at an absolute majority, anyway. I don't think PSOE+Podemos+C's is manageable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:07:28 PM
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

Well, lets accept that it is much more likely Podemos will ally with PSOE and it is much more likely that C will ally with PP.  I am not saying it is destined to take place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:17:12 PM
PSOE+Podemos 161 (42.68%) PP-C 161 (42.62%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 05:21:51 PM
With 97.33 % counted:

PSOE+Podemos 161 seats (42.67%)        PP+C's 161 seats (42.62%)



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 05:22:32 PM
I bet KIng Felipe is dreading the next two months ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:23:58 PM
PP deputy PM Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said that PP "has won election."  I guess this is part of the jockeying for position in the battle of government formation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 20, 2015, 05:24:25 PM
Izquierda Unida gets slaughtered, even with their last minute rebranding as Unidad Popular : they don't get any deputy in either Andalucía or Asturias for example, just 2 seats in the seat-rich Madrid. That's brutal, but they had already survived that in 2008 to come back in 2011. With the uprising of Podemos, however, a come-back should prove waaaay harder.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:25:17 PM
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RodPresident on December 20, 2015, 05:29:10 PM
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:33:12 PM
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.

Would Podemos and  Unidad Popular accept being in the same ruling coalition ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 20, 2015, 05:45:29 PM
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.

Would Podemos and  Unidad Popular accept being in the same ruling coalition ?
Yeah, that one shouldn't really be a problem. Of course, we would only be talking of support anyway.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 05:48:21 PM
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

Well, lets accept that it is much more likely Podemos will ally with PSOE and it is much more likely that C will ally with PP.  I am not saying it is destined to take place.

No, it really isn't though, unless you follow TVE, who are still stuck in bipartisan logic.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 05:51:10 PM
What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 05:56:15 PM
What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA. The PNV would like a federal system that allows them to represent Basque interests only in national politics. Bildu want a socialist (or non-neoliberal) state in the same way CC and Esquerra Republicana.

As long as they keep their extra national politics, administration and policing they will be happy though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 06:00:21 PM
How hard-line will PP and C be about not doing deals with nationalists forces?  Did not a PP administration with support from nationalists come to power after the 1996 elections ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 06:02:13 PM
I still think PSOE and Podemos could gather enough support with Catalan (and Basque ?) nationalists to form government on promises of referendum(s). It's the only shot at an absolute majority, anyway. I don't think PSOE+Podemos+C's is manageable.

No. I don't see Pedro Sánchez leading a very weak government propped up by Catalan separatists on the promise of a referendum in Catalonia . That would tear PSOE apart  and  Andalusian premier Susana Díaz  would never allow such a move .

Right now, I can hardly see a way to prevent another election within a few months.







Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 20, 2015, 06:05:44 PM
What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA. The PNV would like a federal system that allows them to represent Basque interests only in national politics. Bildu want a socialist (or non-neoliberal) state in the same way CC and Esquerra Republicana.

As long as they keep their extra national politics, administration and policing they will be happy though.

But weren't CiU non-separatist until the economic crash? Could PNV be radiclaised by am Artur Mas like figure?

Are Coalico Compromis separatists? They are on a list with PODEMOS, so I assumed they were more soft nationalists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 06:06:26 PM
With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 06:11:42 PM

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF ???!!!



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 06:12:29 PM
With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    


If these groupings are posted one more time I am going to break the keyboard...

Here are all the other possibilities that are actually more probable than these pre-set alliances you've taken from TVE...

  • We head for new elections
  • PP-PSOE
  • Podemos-Ciu-PSOE


Similar situation to Northern Ireland. You have terrorists on your doorstep that you do not want, just find a solution that involves devolution. The violence dies down, and the problem is half-solved.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 06:22:53 PM
Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 20, 2015, 06:31:56 PM
Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 20, 2015, 07:54:47 PM
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

***

Putting some things in perspective:

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 20, 2015, 07:56:44 PM
Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.

Honestly, the Basques don't have their fiscal autonomy because of ETA, but rather because of the fact that their fiscal autonomy has been a consistent part of national legislation since the 19th century in its current form, and actually dates to the Middle Ages. It wasn't repealed under Franco and it was the bare minimum for an agreement with the PNV, so, as it happens ETA did not place the same pressuring role on Madrid as most ppl would assume. ETA was not treated as a political issue, but as a law and order one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Hash on December 20, 2015, 08:05:42 PM
Jesus, the ignorance is strong in this thread.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on December 20, 2015, 08:29:57 PM
A difficult result. C's seem to have underperformed, which makes things very complicated.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Famous Mortimer on December 20, 2015, 08:31:36 PM
When was the last time a European election has a clear victory followed by a coalition that made sense?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on December 20, 2015, 09:03:35 PM
The UK? Of course, there wasn't a coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 11:05:12 PM
This poll

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/678587014493663233

was almost spot on.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Vosem on December 20, 2015, 11:45:04 PM
This poll

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/678587014493663233

was almost spot on.

De eso nada, amigo, es fruta.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 21, 2015, 05:55:39 AM
()

Podemos* = Podemos, En Marea (Galicia), En Comú-Podem (Catalonia), Compromís-Podem-És el Moment (Valencia)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2015, 07:44:08 AM
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 21, 2015, 08:29:40 AM
The pro-reform agenda should run on a common list in the senate, under the explicit pledge of abolishing the damn thing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 21, 2015, 08:52:44 AM
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 21, 2015, 09:02:05 AM
What's exactly the role of the Senate?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 21, 2015, 09:04:35 AM
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...
There's a de jure 3% threshold in every province, and of course a de facto threshold of much more than that in seat-poor provinces. It's not a threshold issue here, it's not Israel. It's an issue of a dying system still hanging on to life support and new alternatives still struggling to gain credibility.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 21, 2015, 09:34:06 AM
What are the main ideas irt electoral reform from C's, podemos etc?

The Senate is needed to amend the constitution, appoint certain officials, and has a lot of theoretical power over regional relations.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 21, 2015, 10:13:34 AM
PSOE will vote against Rajoy in the first investiture vote. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/spain-s-socialists-will-block-rajoy-s-first-bid-for-new-term)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 21, 2015, 10:48:08 AM
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...

Spain has a 3% threshold in theory, 10-15% in practice ¬¬


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 21, 2015, 12:11:21 PM
https://team.cartodb.com/u/piensaenpixel/viz/2016460c-a7c5-11e5-90ff-0e98b61680bf/embed_map


Very nice map, very detailed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2015, 01:00:05 PM
https://team.cartodb.com/u/piensaenpixel/viz/2016460c-a7c5-11e5-90ff-0e98b61680bf/embed_map


Very nice map, very detailed.

Good find, thank you

 .
The most extended opinion is that our Senate is a rather useless legislative body .Anyway, search for the "Spanish Senate " entry in the Wikipedia for further details on its role and organization.

I apologize  for the bad ortography in my previous post. I don't know how to change the configuration of the fycking device that I'm using.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 21, 2015, 01:09:54 PM
Lewis found a good oddiry in Tarragona, a six seater.

Podemos 21, ERC 17, PSOE 16, DL 15, C's 14, PP 12.

And yes, that works out as all six getting one seat each. A very peculiar result.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: YL on December 22, 2015, 04:44:25 AM
That exclave of Burgos province inside Alava seems to have liked Podemos a lot.

Result in Orexa, Gipuzkoa: EH Bildu 72 votes, PNV 1 vote, everyone else zero.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 22, 2015, 06:07:48 AM
That exclave of Burgos province inside Alava seems to have liked Podemos a lot.

Result in Orexa, Gipuzkoa: EH Bildu 72 votes, PNV 1 vote, everyone else zero.

You must feel for that lone PNV voter...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 22, 2015, 08:27:09 AM
Podemos overtakes IU-UP in Marinaleda : all is lost for IU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 22, 2015, 01:57:16 PM
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 22, 2015, 04:15:49 PM
There seems to be an interesting North-South divide within the left between Podemos and PSOE respectively.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 22, 2015, 06:11:28 PM
It's more that PODEMOS are weakest in the Castillian heartland.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 22, 2015, 08:46:18 PM
I find the one of the more interesting regional oddity is C's pathetic result in its home region.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 22, 2015, 08:59:09 PM
I find the one of the more interesting regional oddity is C's pathetic result in its home region.

C's vote in Catalonia is limited by the fact that they are the mostly openly anti-Catalan language party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 22, 2015, 09:15:47 PM
Podemos overtakes IU-UP in Marinaleda : all is lost for IU.

PCE: RIP HP


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 23, 2015, 03:24:24 AM
It's more that PODEMOS are weakest in the Castillian heartland.
They do very well in the most autonomous of communities,which if I am not wrong are also those with an alternative official language.
Galicia,Catalunya,Pais Vasco,Communitat Valenciana,Baleares,Canarias...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Iannis on December 23, 2015, 08:45:16 AM
It looks curious, but the vote to Podemos in provinces seems positively correlated with the GDP per capita as I found in some infographic I made

http://www.termometropolitico.it/infografiche


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 23, 2015, 08:55:00 AM
I think it is also positively correlated to air moisture, seeing the maps.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: warandwar on December 23, 2015, 10:52:52 AM
I think it is also positively correlated to air moisture, seeing the maps.

Well known fact that moister air correlates to less strong hegemonic power structures.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 23, 2015, 12:27:24 PM
I find the one of the more interesting regional oddity is C's pathetic result in its home region.

C's vote in Catalonia is limited by the fact that they are the mostly openly anti-Catalan language party.

I didn't think that C's were against the use of the Catalan language, just against Catalonia becoming an independent country - there's a big difference!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 23, 2015, 01:17:57 PM
final prediction:

Water            28%  final: 28.7%
Aubergines    21%  final: 20.7%
Strawberries  20%  final: 22%
Oranges         14% final: 13.9%
                            -----------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       avg. error: +/- 0.8 % - i can live with that :)
turnout: 67%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 23, 2015, 05:41:44 PM
PSOE barons are publicly dissatisfied with Sanchez, with Gonzalez and Rubalcaba urging Sanchez to allow a PP minority.  (http://www.politico.eu/article/spain-psoe-a-wounded-giant-socialists-sanchez-elections/) Will they wield a knife?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 23, 2015, 06:24:21 PM
PSOE barons are publicly dissatisfied with Sanchez, with Gonzalez and Rubalcaba urging Sanchez to allow a PP minority.  (http://www.politico.eu/article/spain-psoe-a-wounded-giant-socialists-sanchez-elections/) Will they wield a knife?

If PSOE backs a PP government, PSOE is dead. The new PASOK.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 24, 2015, 03:44:39 AM
God, senile third-way politicians are the worst.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 24, 2015, 04:33:14 AM
Yes, Sanchez; definitely listed to Felipe "Corruption" González and incomptent failure Gonzales.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 24, 2015, 08:28:45 AM
 I imagine Podemos struggled in Andalucia because they are painted by PSOE as a threat to the traditional  welfare state as facilitators to its federalisation. We have a similar thing with our socialist party in Wallonia. People who benefit from government aid (and European aid) do not want multi-level governance.

Not sure how C's bombed in Catalunya, considering how they scored really well in the regionals there. PP were last too...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 25, 2015, 11:25:49 AM
Now Diaz is warning Sanchez that pact decisions are made by the PSOE federal council, not him unilaterally.  (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/24/actualidad/1450974572_109966.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 25, 2015, 05:56:45 PM
I suspect it would have been better for PSOE if that bully had lost last regional elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SATW on December 26, 2015, 07:55:50 AM
1. can't believe I missed these elections :(
2. amazing and hilarious results
3. i guess i hope PP stays in power but i wont cry if they dont. jose maria aznar was the last PM I liked.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 27, 2015, 06:02:15 PM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 27, 2015, 07:07:02 PM
http://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/Felipe-Gonzalez-PP-PSOE-Podemos_0_2624737511.html (http://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/Felipe-Gonzalez-PP-PSOE-Podemos_0_2624737511.html)

Felipe Gonzales leaps further into senility and calls for a pact with the PP followed with electoral reform to a two round system a la France to make sure that PODEMOS never obtains power (because Marine Le Pen and PODEMOS are the same threat apparently)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 28, 2015, 10:14:04 AM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2015, 03:25:32 PM
Pedro Sánchez, who is under big pressure from all sides including his own party, faced PSOE barons this morning. "Territorial integrity of Spain is not up for debate":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451310221_233637.html

Quote
Socialist Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez addressed his party on Monday morning, saying that he would “work his fingers to the bone” to try to deal with the demands for a “shift to the left” that Spanish society expressed at the December 20 elections. But, he said, he would not do so “at any price.” At no time will he discuss a referendum in Catalonia with Podemos, he stated.

The speech that Sánchez made on Monday morning to his party’s Federal Committee was by far the most difficult he has faced so far in his 17 months at the head of the left-wing group, given that some of the so-called “party barons” are beginning to question his leadership.

Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias met Mariano Rajoy at La Moncloa. Afterwards Iglesias told reporters that he is "massively dissapointed" with Pedro Sánchez. Mr Iglesias won't give up on the issue of the referendum in Catalonia -that is unacceptable for the socialists, especially for 'barons' like Susana Díaz- and demands that PSOE takes a position on a number of social measures that Podemos wants to implement.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451308259_640441.html

On a side note, I find some demagoguery in the way that referendum proposal is depicted by naysayers. PP, PSOE and C's spokepersons say that Podemos aims to break Spain, even though Mr Iglesias stated he would campaign against independence in case the consultation was to take place. On the other hand it's likely that Pablo Iglesias aims a new election in which his party could grow at the expense of the Spanish socialists (and PP at the expense of C's), hence some people think that he says referendum is not negotiable because he kows it's a condition PSOE cannot accept. In any case Podemos could not give up without alienating regional allies, especially the Catalan and namely Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau.  

Mariano Rajoy met with Albert Rivera. The front man of Ciudadanos stated that his party will abstain in Rajoy's investiture and demands that socialists do the same, allowing PP leader to continue as PM in a second vote. Rivera would like  an entente PP-PSOE-C's in order to provide stability, enact some reforms and preserve the integrity of Spain. This option seems to be very popular in some media (yesterday I read Mario Vargas Llosa supporting it).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2015, 04:28:25 PM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Catalan separatists never disappoint me ;D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 28, 2015, 07:24:27 PM
God, senile third-way politicians are the worst.

These people aren't so much third way as generic small c conservatives.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 29, 2015, 07:37:17 PM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 03, 2016, 09:37:34 AM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well...

Btw, elections will be held in March, the CUP just announced it will vote 5 for and 5 against, meaning, Mas doesn't have a majority or a plurality (for the second round) and since by next Sunday, the deadline will be met, new elections will be held automatically, in March. Fun times. CiU is about to be eclipsed by ERC as the main Catalanist party. And I venture to say that CDC will rid itself of Mas and might become (once again) a determining part of the Spanish process of government-formation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 03, 2016, 12:28:38 PM
The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on January 04, 2016, 08:52:56 AM
Why in hell didn't Convergencia get rid of Mas before the CUP assembly?
Just goes on to show how CdC didn't care one bit about independence,after all.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 04, 2016, 11:03:57 AM
The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

The problem with polls is that it's rather likely JxS will explode, and become CDC and ERC once again, this time with ERC becoming the main Catalanist party for the first time since the 30s. Also, the CUP will suffer. It remains to be seen whether or not C's will grow or it will go down, as it did in the general election.

CDC does care somewhat about independence (although they are many within who are ambivalent or just souveranist) but they care far more about their cap being the cap. Essentially Mas has almost absolute control of the party, just like Pujol did, so it's unlikely that even if they wanted (and Spanish parties aren't prone to these things), they could oust him. But you can see a change as you have people close to Mas, like Homs or Mas-Colell already expressing a much more ambivalent message about independence. For instance, during the electoral campaign, DiL was essentially saying independence one day and the next,"let's find a common ground, an accord with Madrid".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 04, 2016, 12:05:16 PM
Artur Mas wil not step down:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/04/inenglish/1451909580_715089.html

Quote
Acting Catalan premier Artur Mas will not step down to prevent early elections in March, despite calls to do so from a small party that holds the key to power in the region.

“I am anxious to make a stand in Madrid, and also right here, against the forces that are not making it easy for us,” he said on Monday morning, before meeting with top leaders of his Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) party to discuss their next move.

Mas, who once said that he would step aside if he ever became “a problem” for the secessionist process, now defends his refusal to leave

On Sunday, Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) – a small anti-capitalist group that supports leaving the euro zone and holds the key to power in Catalonia – announced that its 10 deputies will not vote in favor of Mas’s reinstatement.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 04, 2016, 12:36:15 PM
I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 04, 2016, 12:59:31 PM
I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.

Indeed. I think JxS is going to collapse, personally. As for the polls, there's one from La Razón:

()

JxS: 56 (-6)
C's: 29 (+4)
PSC: 15 (-1)
CSP: 12 (+1)
CUP: 11 (+1)
PP: 10 (-1)
Unió: 2 (+2)

Independence bloc: 67 seats (-5) (68 needed for absolute majority).
Unionists: 54 seats (+2)
Pro-referendum: 14 (+3)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 04, 2016, 01:27:30 PM
I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 04, 2016, 02:30:54 PM
I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón ;)

Obviously :P But the only other projection is from El Mundo and it appears to be basically just a projection of the general election's results onto the Parlament, which is deficient.

But polling is going to be inaccurate because a) JxSì might collapse and b) will C's unexpected underperformance at the national elvel affect them at the Parlament?, c) will Colau and co. get more involved in the campaign for CSP? and most importantly d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE-LUAsWZu0) :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2016, 04:32:16 AM
d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE-LUAsWZu0) :P

Ah, welcome to Polònia :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWabXIPGmJI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjYHUGIJ4wM


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 05, 2016, 04:40:55 AM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 05, 2016, 12:10:10 PM
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

That is true, and to be honest, it's more of a feeling, I don't think there's yet evidence to support it. I think CDC has suffered a lot in the last legislature, and then there's the fact that the sum of CDC+ERC in seats has consistently gone down since 2010 (and now they don't have an absolute majority together, which they always had since 1980). I think many 'soft' nationalists, after this major blow to the 'procés' from within (first time, until now it was the evil Estat espanyol) will not help them out, plus you can only energise people from so long. Then there's the feeling that ERC is to pass CDC as the main Catalanist party, which won't help JxS to stay together. That could be seen in the general election.

Well, I'm not Catalan, but I'd say somewhat similar to the rest of Spain, waiting and condused by the situation, and thinking whether their territorial demands can be satisfied. I don't think it'll harden positions, instead, I think it can soften them, because (if a PSOE govt, with Podemos or C's, or both or idk happens), then the Government will be flexible. Also, because there's a consensus regarding a change in the financing of the regions and such. But it also depends on whether or not a Government can be formed. Ideally for a change (without a referendum), the best option is a PSOE+PP govt with support from C's and occassional agreements with Podemos for reforming the institutional and constitutional framework, but the situation atm it's far too complicated to tell what's going to happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2016, 12:47:26 PM
But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

It's a bit more complicated than that. Catalonia has a long tradition of dual behaviour in elections, as it was pointed before, so there are few places in Spain where general and regional elections are so different contests. However, the deadlock is not only located in Madrid. The procés is reaching a dead end in the last few days both because of its unrealistic goals (despite separatists lost the 'plebiscite' by a narrow margin) and the absurd vaudeville starred by the stubborn Artur Mas and the CUP, embroiled in never-ending assemblies. The ERC can be a winner in this situation, because it places itself in the centrality of the separatist spectrum. Anyway, vote switches in Catalonia are multidirectional and there are grey areas inbetween separatists and unionists. For instance, the CUP itself collected voters from ERC (disaffected with the dealings with Artur Mas) in the last regional election. As well it collected votes from the 'radical' left, helped by the ambiguous positioning of Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú (some members called to vote for the CSP, others for the CUP). Now that the two souls in the CUP (the separatist and the radical leftist) have collided on Artur Mas, who knows. The CUP didn't run in the general election: according to polls, 32% switched to En Comú Podem and 25% to ERC.     


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2016, 04:16:59 PM
Artur Mas: "On Monday I will sign the decree calling new elections". Another headline: "Catalan presidency is not a fish auction"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/05/inenglish/1451989708_020302.html

Quote
Acting Catalan premier Artur Mas is already counting on there being new elections in Catalonia, thus ruling out an agreement with anti-capitalist group Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP), the party that holds the key to power in the region.

“On Monday I will sign the decree calling new elections,” Mas announced on Tuesday morning in Barcelona. The acting premier added that he would, nonetheless, run the clock down on the legal time frame that the CUP has to change its mind and decide to support his investiture as head of parliament.

The political tug-of-war in Catalonia this week prompted one high-profile resignation, but it is not the one that many people were expecting

Mas has been unable to secure enough support for his reinstatement in the more than three months since Catalonia held elections, but this week he has insisted that he will not step aside in favor of a consensus candidate.

Instead, the one leaving is the leader of CUP – the fringe party that is withholding the support Mas so desperately needs to get sworn in and form a government (...)

And in an added twist to the tale, the man who vowed that CUP would never back Mas is walking away because his party has decided to do precisely what he promised (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 07, 2016, 12:34:18 PM
Podemos wins the overseas vote. Turnout was only 4.7%, mainly because of the difficulties with the voto rogado ("requested vote") system. In previous elections, before that system was implemented, turnout used to be 30% or so. The uneven turnout figures by region are worth mentioning. For instance, in the Canaries 4.2% of the overseas roll requested to vote but votes cast were only 1%. Apparently mail service malfunction in countries like Cuba and Venezuela is connected with extremely low turnouts in Galicia and the Canary Islands. Anyway, results (interactive map by constituency through the link):

Podemos 23,908 votes (27.04%)

PP 20,492 (23.17%)

PSOE 14,885 (16.84%)

C's 14,465 (16.36%)

IU 3,406 (3.85%)

http://ctxt.es/es/20160106/Politica/3617/voto-rogado-elecciones-participacion-Espa%C3%B1a-Elecciones-20D-

Results by region:

http://www.espanaexterior.com/upload/archivo/680-votoceragenerales20d2015.pdf





Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 08:10:40 AM
http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/ (http://"http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/")

Quote
A document signed by 5 ministers demands Rajoy to resign so that the PP may govern

Un sector muy importante y bien posicionado del PP ha redactado un documento en el que se expone a Rajoy la necesidad de que se aparte para que tengan alguna posibilidad de gobernar. De momento, 5 ministros han firmado el escrito.

  • A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document.
  • Soraya Sáenz Santamría would be behind the memo, according to PP sources that talked to lainformacion.com, although they admit that the Deputy Prime Minister has not signed it.

Back-stabbing within Rajoy's own party is becoming commonplace. The electoral results have stirred the waters of the People's Party. If before the election, a sector of the populares thought that the results of Rivera (C's) would force Rajoy to resign, today, without that possibility, they have decided to take direct action.

"A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document, a proof of the malcontent within the party" a very well-psotioned source within the PP explained to lainformacion.com.

Soraya would be behind the document

The black hand that would be behind this betrayal would be the one and only Soraya Sáenz Santamaría, said the same source, although they recognised that the Deputy Prime Minister is not amongst the signatories of the document.

"She simply does not need to. She is the natural successor to Rajoy and she has a very large number of supporters within Génova [PP's HQ, the apparatus]. With just insinuating something and letting other people get involved is more than enough"

Rajoy's leadership decline within the party is more patent every day. "Before [the elections], no one would have dared to face Rajoy. The document which I'm referring to is a proof that no one, except his most faithful, would mind to challenge him. It is just a matter of time that the PP changes its leadership and that it works to recover the lost ground after the last election".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 09, 2016, 10:47:16 AM
http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/ (http://"http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/")

Quote
A document signed by 5 ministers demands Rajoy to resign so that the PP may govern

Un sector muy importante y bien posicionado del PP ha redactado un documento en el que se expone a Rajoy la necesidad de que se aparte para que tengan alguna posibilidad de gobernar. De momento, 5 ministros han firmado el escrito.

  • A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document.
  • Soraya Sáenz Santamría would be behind the memo, according to PP sources that talked to lainformacion.com, although they admit that the Deputy Prime Minister has not signed it.

Back-stabbing within Rajoy's own party is becoming commonplace. The electoral results have stirred the waters of the People's Party. If before the election, a sector of the populares thought that the results of Rivera (C's) would force Rajoy to resign, today, without that possibility, they have decided to take direct action.

"A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document, a proof of the malcontent within the party" a very well-psotioned source within the PP explained to lainformacion.com.

Soraya would be behind the document

The black hand that would be behind this betrayal would be the one and only Soraya Sáenz Santamaría, said the same source, although they recognised that the Deputy Prime Minister is not amongst the signatories of the document.

"She simply does not need to. She is the natural successor to Rajoy and she has a very large number of supporters within Génova [PP's HQ, the apparatus]. With just insinuating something and letting other people get involved is more than enough"

Rajoy's leadership decline within the party is more patent every day. "Before [the elections], no one would have dared to face Rajoy. The document which I'm referring to is a proof that no one, except his most faithful, would mind to challenge him. It is just a matter of time that the PP changes its leadership and that it works to recover the lost ground after the last election".

"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 10:52:38 AM
http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/ (http://"http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/")

Quote
A document signed by 5 ministers demands Rajoy to resign so that the PP may govern

Un sector muy importante y bien posicionado del PP ha redactado un documento en el que se expone a Rajoy la necesidad de que se aparte para que tengan alguna posibilidad de gobernar. De momento, 5 ministros han firmado el escrito.

  • A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document.
  • Soraya Sáenz Santamría would be behind the memo, according to PP sources that talked to lainformacion.com, although they admit that the Deputy Prime Minister has not signed it.

Back-stabbing within Rajoy's own party is becoming commonplace. The electoral results have stirred the waters of the People's Party. If before the election, a sector of the populares thought that the results of Rivera (C's) would force Rajoy to resign, today, without that possibility, they have decided to take direct action.

"A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document, a proof of the malcontent within the party" a very well-psotioned source within the PP explained to lainformacion.com.

Soraya would be behind the document

The black hand that would be behind this betrayal would be the one and only Soraya Sáenz Santamaría, said the same source, although they recognised that the Deputy Prime Minister is not amongst the signatories of the document.

"She simply does not need to. She is the natural successor to Rajoy and she has a very large number of supporters within Génova [PP's HQ, the apparatus]. With just insinuating something and letting other people get involved is more than enough"

Rajoy's leadership decline within the party is more patent every day. "Before [the elections], no one would have dared to face Rajoy. The document which I'm referring to is a proof that no one, except his most faithful, would mind to challenge him. It is just a matter of time that the PP changes its leadership and that it works to recover the lost ground after the last election".

"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?

Estoy :p But yes, basically, she's the second in command and her profile is much more amenable to a great coalition than Mariano "LED" Rajoy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 10:54:37 AM
Also, an in extremis agreement between JxS and the CUP might have been reached and there'd be an investitute vote tomorrow. While not a 100% confirmed, Mas would resign (and become conseller en cap), and Girona's mayor, Carles Puigdemont (CDC) would become President and in exchange, 8 CUP MP would resign and 2 join JxS because I don't know. In any case, this decision has no support (AFAIK) from any CUP Assembly and there are 4-5 CUP MPs very opposed to CDC altogether, so we'll see if this happens and then if they follow their party's line.

But on the other hand, a JxS deputy just tweeted:

Quote
"De moment no tenim cap confirmació ni pel ple d investidura de demà ni per qui serà !"

"So far we have no confirmation neither about the investiture vote tomorrow nor about whom it will be!"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on January 09, 2016, 11:39:30 AM
If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 11:46:57 AM
If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.

Mas is about to talk to the press, ERC is meeting at 18.00, CDC at 19.00. The CUP I don't know. In any case, 6 CUPaires need to vote yes (and the other 4 don't matter) for an absolute majority, because there can only be one investiture vote and it needs to have an absolute majority. There's no time for a second round, since if there's no President by Monday, elections will be held on March.

And there could be a rebellion in CUP from the anti-Mas/CDC half.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 12:06:20 PM
Mas is speaking live atm. (http://www.elmundo.es/el-mundo-tv/2016/01/09/569133fc46163f4f048b45cf.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 12:50:32 PM
()

The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on January 09, 2016, 01:36:04 PM

The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.

An English summary would be greatly appreciated. (Though from what I can tell, the "2 defectors" part certainly seems to be in it - any reason for this?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 01:47:57 PM
Quote
Parliamentary Accord:

In order to guarantee parliamentary stability and to strengthen the government during this legislature, the CUP-CC binds itself to:

1. Not to vote in the same sense as the parliamentary groups opposed to the procés and/or the 'dret a decidir' whenever parliamentary stability is at risk.
2. Guarantee that two deputies of the CUP-CC will join the "parliamentary group dynamic" of JxS in a stable manner. They will take part in all deliberations and will follow the decisions taken in order to ensure that point 1 is respected.
3. To give support in the first round to the candidate to the presidency of the Generalitat that the current President may proposes from amongst the members of Junts pel Sì parliamentary group.

In the same manner,

4. The CUP-CC assumes that the defence of the political aspects of the 'procés' as understood by the CUP have jeopardised the majoritarian vote of the people and the electorate in favour of a process towards the independence in a negotiation which has eroded the support of both as well as the social and popular basis of independentism. It must recognise the errors in the belligerency expressed towards JxS, especially with regards to all relative to the unequivocal will to advance in the process of independence and in the constituent process which it entails, only scenario for the construction of the frames and structures of sovereignty which will permit us, as a society, to reach other levels of social justice and democratic participation. Due to all of these, the CUP-CC agrees to rebuild, in all aspects, the discursive and mobilising power of the current political stage which starts with this agreement, including the active defence of all the agents that have made it possible.

5. The CUP-CC agrees to renew, as far as it is necessary, its own parliamentary group with the objective of signalling a change o course and to implicitly assume on their part the self-criticism that is due in the management of the process. The new deputies will take their place immediately after the investiture vote.

Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 09, 2016, 02:01:00 PM
Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.

How will the CUP rebels react?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 02:04:02 PM
Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.


How will the CUP rebels react?

Technically, 47% :P

But we don't know if they will react or not. But for a party where these decisions ought to be taken by an assembly, it all seems very un-assembly-like. I'm just utterly amazed about the agreement, it's the political version of, idk, ser puta y poner la cama?


In any case, what's glorious are the comments Mas made during the press conference such as "urnas no le dieron ha tenido que "corregirse" en negociación" (what the ballot box did not give has been corrected in the negotiation", or that the CUP "will be in the Parlament to do opposition because the Govern can not lose votes [in passing laws]"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on January 09, 2016, 02:12:50 PM
Quote
Parliamentary Accord:

In order to guarantee parliamentary stability and to strengthen the government during this legislature, the CUP-CC binds itself to:

1. Not to vote in the same sense as the parliamentary groups opposed to the procés and/or the 'dret a decidir' whenever parliamentary stability is at risk.
2. Guarantee that two deputies of the CUP-CC will join the "parliamentary group dynamic" of JxS in a stable manner. They will take part in all deliberations and will follow the decisions taken in order to ensure that point 1 is respected.
3. To give support in the first round to the candidate to the presidency of the Generalitat that the current President may proposes from amongst the members of Junts pel Sì parliamentary group.

In the same manner,

4. The CUP-CC assumes that the defence of the political aspects of the 'procés' as understood by the CUP have jeopardised the majoritarian vote of the people and the electorate in favour of a process towards the independence in a negotiation which has eroded the support of both as well as the social and popular basis of independentism. It must recognise the errors in the belligerency expressed towards JxS, especially with regards to all relative to the unequivocal will to advance in the process of independence and in the constituent process which it entails, only scenario for the construction of the frames and structures of sovereignty which will permit us, as a society, to reach other levels of social justice and democratic participation. Due to all of these, the CUP-CC agrees to rebuild, in all aspects, the discursive and mobilising power of the current political stage which starts with this agreement, including the active defence of all the agents that have made it possible.

5. The CUP-CC agrees to renew, as far as it is necessary, its own parliamentary group with the objective of signalling a change o course and to implicitly assume on their part the self-criticism that is due in the management of the process. The new deputies will take their place immediately after the investiture vote.

Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.

Thanks!
That's... mental, surely? Points 4 and 5 read like something from a Maoist self-criticism session.
Any indication as to whether the anti-Mas MPs are even willing to resign? Or do CUP use the tried and tested "undated letters of resignation" technique?

Oh yeah, and if the CUP are meant to become JxSí's satellite party anyway, why even bother with the two defectors?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 09, 2016, 02:14:12 PM
But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 02:18:03 PM
But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

Oh yes, there was absolutely no incentive. It does make sense, for JxS, for such a militantly anti-everything party as the CUP (they make Podemos look like a bunch of moderate centrists) that they have agreed to put electoral calculation over ideology (a first for them!) and to agree to become a satellite of the party of the Catalan bourgeoisie that CDC is, is inconceivable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on January 10, 2016, 04:10:59 PM
Humans are very afraid of losing whatever small dosis of importance they gain.

This is like Syriza's level of betrayal.

I'm quickly becoming an anarchist again.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on January 10, 2016, 04:13:22 PM
So Puigdemont has been invested, with 8 yes votes and 2 abstentions from CUP, which seems low. Any news about the resistance to the deal from within CUP?

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: tpfkaw on January 10, 2016, 04:24:23 PM
Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years%27_War).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 12, 2016, 10:35:53 AM
Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years%27_War).

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 12, 2016, 04:52:17 PM
Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years%27_War).

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

Unlikely, he quoted a poet who died in 1939, more likely he's referring to the Belgian revolution of 1830, imho.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 12, 2016, 04:57:35 PM
Anyhow, I've been working on an electoral model for Spain, based on my own ideas (smaller/larger constituencies, no rural over-representation, compensatory seats on top, unblocked lists).

()


PP (centre-right): 120 (28.72)
PSOE (centre-left): 92 (22.01)
Podemos (left-wing): 87 (20.47)
Ciudadanos (centre): 58 (13.93)
Unidad Popular (far-left): 15 (3.67)
Democràcia i Llibertat (Catalan centre-right): 10 (2.25)
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan centre-left): 9 (2.39)
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea-Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque centre): 6 (1.20)
EH Bildu (Basque left-wing). 2 (0.87)
Coalición Canaria (Canary Islands regionalists): 1 (0.33)

Most likely result is PSOE+Podemos+IU coalition with external support in the investiture from the PNV (and perhaps CC), since they add up to 194 seats against (and let's say C's supports the PP in this scenario), the sum o PP and C's which is 178.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 13, 2016, 04:58:09 AM
The opening session of the new parliament is taking place this morning.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/inenglish/1452673886_901645.html

Quote
A new era in Spanish politics is beginning on Wednesday as deputies convene for the constituent session of Congress after the December 20 general election.

Following the inconclusive vote that yielded a fragmented parliament, negotiations between the parties finally took a step forward on Tuesday evening, when enough consensus was reached to elect a new speaker.

Patxi López, a veteran Socialist who served as Basque premier between 2009 and 2012, is set to become the first speaker in Spanish democratic history who does not belong to the party that obtained the most votes at the election.

That fact reflects the new need for cross-party negotiations in a scenario where no group has yet found enough support to form a government following the December 20 ballot. A last-minute deal was reached between the Socialist Party and the emerging Ciudadanos to get López sworn in, while the PP was forced to accept the deal despite having the most representatives.

When the new legislature convenes this morning, it will confirm López’s new appointment and also appoint the presiding committee, the nine-member governing body of the lower house. For the first time, six out of the nine members will be women.

Podemos will not be joining the PSOE-PP-Ciudadanos deal to support López in protest over the fact that it is not being allowed to create four separate groups in Congress, representing the anti-austerity party proper and the affiliated groups that it ran with in Galicia, Catalonia and Valencia. Such a move would effectively grant Podemos more subsidies and a greater presence on committees than if it were to have a single delegation.

Politicians have already warned that the agreement over the next speaker should not be taken to mean that the parties involved will reach a similar pact to get a new prime minister invested.

Live coverage in Spanish

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/13/media/1452667694_891503.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on January 13, 2016, 10:44:49 AM
Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 13, 2016, 11:14:56 AM
Why are they not "allowed" to create several different groups for the several different initiatives they ran with, if they have the numbers ? Which authority is denying them this right ?

Well it's not a right. And the rulebook of the Congress.

There's a considerable degree of unfairness about it, becaue by splitting up, Podemos would receive as much public money as the PP (which has double the amount of deputies) and of speaking times. Furthermore, there's no precedent for it, as the PSOE had a similar deal with the PSC in Catalonia and the PSC still sat in the PSOE group.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 15, 2016, 06:20:05 AM
So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on January 15, 2016, 01:23:19 PM
So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on January 15, 2016, 03:45:09 PM
So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

I think the independence movement's momentum is ruined and it will only go downhill from now on for them.

I doubt. It is one of those things that has been around for a long while, and while it may go up and down, it will remain strong.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 17, 2016, 04:48:57 AM
New year's polls

Metroscopia / El País (Jan 17)
PP 29%, Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 21.1%, C's 16.6%, IU-UP 3.2%, Others 7.6%

Invymark / La Sexta (Jan 16)
PP 30.8%, Podemos 21.6%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 12.6%, IU-UP 3.5%, Others 10.7%

So Puigdemont just ruled out an UDI because the pro-independence forces only got 48% of the votes in September, yet the procés goes on. Apparently because Catalans ought to decide once the Parlament has drafted a constitution or something lol. I really don't get them.

It's not as difficult as it sounds. Puigdemont is aware that it's hard to get enough popular support for the UDI, but hopes that a majority passes a new constitution that would give them enough legitimacy to proclaim independence.   

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/15/inenglish/1452846497_004745.html

Quote
The new Catalan regional premier, Carles Puigdemont, left puzzled looks on several faces after stating that “we are standing between post-autonomy and pre-independence” when he was voted in last Sunday.

Four days later, the separatist leader sought to clear up the meaning of his words on regional television station TV-3, where he gave his first interview since taking up the post.

“Do we have enough strength to proclaim independence with the current parliamentary makeup? Not yet,” said the man who was mayor of Girona until last week, when his name suddenly came up as a replacement for acting premier Artur Mas at the helm of the Catalan government. His last-minute nomination narrowly averted new elections in the region following more than three months of feuding between separatist forces over who should be the next premier.

After addressing the issue that has been uppermost on many people’s minds in recent days, Puigdemont told the interviewer: “We will not make a unilateral declaration of independence. It is not on the program.”

But he also warned that this does not mean that the Catalan executive is changing its plans to prepare Catalonia to proclaim secession 18 months from now, based on the separatist motion passed by the regional house in November.

“We have the strength and democratic legitimacy to begin this road and I won’t accept this point being contested,” he said.

This legitimacy has been contested by unionist parties in Catalonia, which note that the pro-independence Junts pel Sí coalition and Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) did not attain a majority of votes at the September 27 election, even if the voting system granted them parliamentary superiority.

Aware of this fact, the new premier said that pro-independence forces would achieve a majority once Catalans get their own constitution – and drafting one is included in the 18-month road map.

“The goal is to get a majority of the people who would have voted no at a referendum [on self-rule] to vote yes to a constitution that they can relate to much more than the Spanish one,” he said.

Puigdemont does not foresee any options for reform within Spain that would preempt the need for independence, but says he is still open to “dialogue” with Madrid over any measure involving Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 18, 2016, 06:43:47 AM
From Invymark:

Would you be in favour or against of permitting a referendum about Catalan independence?

In favour: 38.8%
Against: 57.6%
Doesn't know: 3.6%

Only Catalonia:

In favour: 68.2%
Against: 27.1%
Doesn't know: 4.7%

Party breakdown:

PP: 8.8% for, 90.6% against
PSOE: 34.1% for, 63.5% against
C's: 13.2% for, 83.7% against
Podemos: 78.5% for, 18% against

Would you be for or against a constitutional reform about changing the Spanish territorial model?

For: 58.4%
Against: 35.3%
Doesn't know: 6.3%

Polling in Galicia and Euskadi:

Galicia:

PPdG: 37% (32, -9)
En Marea: 25% (20, +11)
PSdG: 21% (17, -1)
C's: 9% (6, +6)

Euskadi:

EAJ-PNV: 30% (22-23, -4,5)
Podemos: 25% (21-22, +21,22)
EH Bildu: 19% (13-14, -7,8)
PSE-EE: 12.8% (10, -6)
PP: 8.3% (6, -4)
IU-LV: 3% (0-1, =, +1)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 19, 2016, 06:20:07 AM
Celeste-Tel (Jan 19)

PP 30.2% (128-130), Podemos 22.1% (68-73), PSOE 21.9% (87-90), C's 12.6% (33-35), IU-UP 3.3% (2), Others 10% (24-26)

Methodology:

1100 phone interviews, during the first 10 days of 2016.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on January 19, 2016, 12:19:27 PM
So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Vosem on January 19, 2016, 12:29:19 PM
So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

PP, PSOE, and Ciudadanos did reach a deal to elect a Speaker (Patxi Lopez, from the PSOE) so that the new Parliament can convene, but I don't believe they've agreed to anything else so far.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 19, 2016, 12:55:45 PM
So have the parties reached a deal about general government yet? I haven't been following lately

No. This week, the King has convoked the parties (note: the parties, not the groups) so that they may give him their opinion on the situation and on whom to appoint as formateur. There is nod deadline for when he can propose one, but it is likely he will held a second round of talks next week  or so before appointing the first formateur.

Spain has no tradition in this regard, since traditionally this role of the King was symbolic, now it is not so we'll see what he proposes. Since there are no limits to whom he could appoint, the King may propose anyone, independent of partisan, MP, senator or neither.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 19, 2016, 01:13:04 PM
Lol, imagine if Juan Carlos was still on the throne now


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on January 19, 2016, 01:19:40 PM
Eh, imagine if Sixtus Henry would be on the throne. I do not understand why Spanish people do not support Carlism : (( You even have that funny Maoist-Carlist party, for all those lefties who votes on PSOE or Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2016, 10:10:01 AM
Podemos and PSOE overcome key differences, says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/20/inenglish/1453278643_742610.html

Quote
One of the biggest hurdles to a potential governing alliance between Spain’s Socialist Party (PSOE) and Podemos has been cleared.

The anti-austerity party and its three associates in Valencia, Galicia and Catalonia have finally agreed to integrate into a single parliamentary group, rather than seek four separate delegations.

Podemos’s regional partners had, until now, demanded a separate presence in Spain’s Congress, a petition that, if granted, would have meant greater subsidies and a bigger representation on house committees.

But other parties in the lower house rejected this demand, pointing to internal regulations that state that deputies cannot create separate groups if “at the time of the election, they belonged to political entities that did not compete against each other for votes.”

The deal came shortly before the deadline to file the petitions for congressional groups on Tuesday.

But four deputies for Compromís, the Valencian party that ran in tandem with Podemos at the December 20 election, decided to reject the deal and file a separate request for a group of its own.

This means that the Podemos group in Congress will have 65 representatives, rather than the 69 originally attributed to the anti-austerity party after the election.

The Compromís-Podemos coalition won 9 seats in the general election (4 Compromís, 4 Podemos and 1 independent).

By the moment the Board of Congress has approved 7 parliamentary groups in the Lower House, rejecting the request of Compromís and a proposal for a ERC-Bildu-IU 'instrumental group' :

PP: 119 seats*

PSOE: 89 seats**

Podemos-En Comú Podem-En Marea: 65 seats

Ciudadanos: 40 seats

Democràcia i Llibertat: 8 seats

Basque Nationalist Party: 6 seats

Non ascribed: ERC 9 (?), Compromís 4, IU-UP 2, EH Bildu 2, UPN 2, CC 1, NC 1, Foro 1 and Gómez de la Serna (ex-PP)

* UPN and Foro MPs. as well Pedro Gómez de la Serna (MP for Segovia involved in a corruption scandal) will join the Mixed Group.
** The New Canaries MP elected in Las Palmas in coalition with PSOE will join the Mixed Group.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 20, 2016, 10:19:23 AM
ERC didn't get a group?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2016, 10:23:03 AM

I guess they'll get a group later. ERC, Bildu and IU requested a joint group that was rejected.

On paper, IU and Compromís could reach a deal in order to create another group.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 20, 2016, 11:35:35 AM

I guess they'll get a group later. ERC, Bildu and IU requested a joint group that was rejected.

On paper, IU and Compromís could reach a deal in order to create another group.

Is there enough time, though? The time for making groups is closed, isn't it? I think the only possible thing now is for the deputies to move to already-existing groups.

It is nice to see Podemos facing the realities of parliamentary life. I was getting tired of the utopian 'assaulting the skies' rhetoric, truth be told.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2016, 03:53:51 PM
Is there enough time, though? The time for making groups is closed, isn't it? I think the only possible thing now is for the deputies to move to already-existing groups.

It is nice to see Podemos facing the realities of parliamentary life. I was getting tired of the utopian 'assaulting the skies' rhetoric, truth be told.


I don't know, honestly
EDIT: Parties have three days to appeal the decision of the Board and submit alternative proposals. Next week the Board will reach a final decision.

It'd be a shame that ERC can't get a group when they have the numbers. To begin with, I see no reason for the deal between PSOE, PP and C's that gave the right a majority in the Board when PP and C's don't have a majority of seats. Why shouldn't En Comú Podem, Compromís-Podem and En Marea be allowed to get a group when they have enough votes and seats and appeared separately from Podemos in the results at the Interior website? Are those regional alliances the same thing as Podemos or not? It's a bit of an inconsistency.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2016, 10:25:56 AM
PSOE 'barons' concerned by the possibility of a deal with Podemos and peripheral nationalists. Enric Juliana, a brilliant political analyst who writes in La Vanguardia calls PSOE regional leaders 'the socialconservatives' and Podemos the 'democratic plebeian party' :D

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/21/inenglish/1453365880_664499.html

Quote
Madrid 21 ENE 2016 - 10:19 CET

Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez, whose party came in second in Spain’s December 20 general election, is closer than ever to the prime minister’s office as a result of his ongoing coalition talks with other parties that oppose four more years of conservative government. But not everyone in the Socialist Party (PSOE) is necessarily happy about the progress being made with anti-austerity party Podemos and regional groups that support separatism in places such as Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Podemos itself included the right to a Catalan referendum on self-rule in its platform.

Some regional Socialist leaders are wary of such coalition partners, and are privately advising Sánchez not to compete for the post with the incumbent, Mariano Rajoy of the Popular Party (PP).

Internal opponents to such an alliance talk about the “instability” that it would mean for Spain at a difficult juncture.

Fears of a Socialist-led government that would be dependent on its associates’ demands are leading regional officials to demand “transparency” in the negotiations, so that party members and the public is made aware of the conditions for supporting the PSOE (...)

At this moment Pedro Sánchez has more chances than Mariano Rajoy (who lacks of support outside his own party) to become in the next PM. PP officials feared that King Felipe VI would put Sánchez in charge of the government's formation instead of the acting PM. However, PSOE leader is far from having reached a deal with Podemos, its peripheral associates and the PNV. Sánchez could count with the abstention of Catalan separatists (ERC and DiL got parliamentary groups in the Senate because socialists borrowed a couple of seats to each). In any case, Pedro Sánchez is determined to make his attempt once Rajoy fails. This morning Felipe told the Compromís representative that he's going to follow the 'natural order' and put Rajoy in charge first, unless PP leader quits his attempt given that he has no chances at all. Even Albert Rivera (who is going to meet the king this evening) is complaining because Rajoy hasn't talked with him. People at PP think the investiture session will be an 'ordeal'.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 21, 2016, 12:24:41 PM
You can have an agreement with Podemos as the PSOE without giving in to the referendum, after all, there are more priority social issues to deal with (and honestly Podemos beyond Catalonia probably care more about it than En Comú) and even then, just say, "well, look, its impossible because the PP would block in the Senate" and blah. Red lines are to be crossed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 22, 2016, 06:59:19 AM
In other news, Iglesias just told the King and the press his desire to be Sánchez's VP. The ministries would be divided in a proportional manner ot the vote difference (not seats!) between the two parties and give one ministry to IU. Potential ministers: Irene Montero, Victoria Rosell, Íñigo Errejón, Carolina Bescansa, Xavier Domènech and Julio Rodríguez.

And he just proposed a magnificent manner to coerce the PP into constitutional reform. Use article 92 to call a consultative referendum on the mater of 'do you want constitutional reform?' and then if and when the 'Yes' wins, the PP couldn't say no. Or at least that's his argument.

And now there are no red line anymore. And Iglesias wants a government that defends the unity of Spain respecting the plurinational character of the State, no mention of the referendum.

I wonder if the fact that IU and Compromís are so pro-PSOE, as well as En Marea could make them look bad? Although they keep insisting on the big coalition ev0l plot, when I'm not sure how many times Sánchez has to say otherwise. The problem isn't Sánchez, its the barons, who seem keen on losing and on not governing. I thought parties wanted power?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2016, 10:20:14 AM
Pablo Iglesias told the king that he's ready to join a "government of change" with PSOE and IU whose goal would be to advance the social agenda and undo the budget cuts effected by the conservative administration of Mariano Rajoy. Also, he said he has asked Pedro Sánchez to be deputy PM in a cabinet headed by the latter. Iglesias decided that the king would be the first person to learn about his plans:

"We have decided to take the initiative and take a step forward." "Either you stand on the side of change or you stand on the side of stagnation and gridlock".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/22/inenglish/1453462772_074425.html

This move has been received with "surprise" and "astonishment" at PSOE HQs. El País quotes some regional official saying the offer has caught them off guard and that the Iglesias' idea of the "plurinational nature" of Spain "is not going to fly with the PSOE's Federal Commitee". PSOE officials were displeased with some Iglesias' statements, particularly with the one saying that "the historic possibility to be prime minister now afforded Pedro Sánchez is a smile of fate that he will have to thank me for".

Pedro Sánchez thanked the offer and said he's ready to talk with Iglesias once Rajoy fails, because there are "deadlines and procedures".

On a separate issue, Enric Juliana writes about "crossed international efforts" on Spain. According to Juliana, Mariano Rajoy comissioned some people in his inner circle to contact key individuals at SPD and PS -namely Martin Schulz and Pierre Moscovici- in order they approach Pedro Sánchez and convince PSOE leader that a Grand Coalition is the best option for Spain's stability. In the opposite direction, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias received calls from Athens  and Lisbon in order to convince him to join a leftist coalition government. Tsipras phoned Iglesias earlier this year and pondered the convenience of a leftist turn in Spain that reinforces the block of critical governments in the south of Europe, as well avoiding the isolation of the new Portuguese government. Iglesias' friends at the Bloco de Esquerda sent him messages in favour of a deal between progressive parties in Spain.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160122/301581106107/moncloa-berlin-paris-lisboa-atenas-iglesias.html   

With all this mess, there's too little mention to an extremely important issue. European Commision is waiting to the formation of a new government in Spain to demand additional cuts.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 22, 2016, 01:22:17 PM
Iglesias as always could save himself some phrases.

As we speak, Patxi López is heading to Zarzuela to know whom the King proposes as candidate for the Premiership to be invested by the Parliament.

But, anyways... Possible ministries and such:

PSOE: Premiership and 7 ministers
Podemos: Deputy Premiership and 2 ministers (perhaps Economy and Defence)
En Comú-Podem: 1 minister (Domenech, Ministry of 'Plurinationality')
Compromís: 1 minister
En Marea: 1 minister
IU: 1 minister (Garzón, Ministry of 'We <3 Anguita')

As VP, btw, and unless Sánchez appoints a different spokesperson or a Minister for the Presidency, Iglesias would be the government's spokesperson. That would permit him to keep a high profile, usually complicated for junior coalition partners.

In any case, a PSOE-Podemos-IU government will be a weak one. Usually, minority coalitions are one of the shortest-lived governments, on average lasting little more than 2 years or so.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 22, 2016, 01:27:17 PM
Is Rajoy likely to stay as leader of the PP btw?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 22, 2016, 01:57:53 PM

No.

This is just in. The King was going to propose Rajoy, but Rajoy has rejected standing as candidate for the investiture.


EDIT: Instead of proposing anyone, the King will hold next week a second round of interviews before proposing anyone to Patxi Lopez. More time for PSOE and Podemos to reach an agreement and find support in other places.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 22, 2016, 02:12:25 PM
So what happens next? C accepts PSOE/P, PP goes into oppo & picks new leader?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2016, 03:13:23 PM

Rajoy said at a press conference held minutes ago that he's gong to stand as candidate  (and subsequently as PP leader). By the moment he rejects the king's offer because he has a majority of the Congress of Deputies against him. However, Mr Rajoy is still hanging on the idea of a Grosse Koalition including PP, PSOE and C's led by himself. The man is  obstinate.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 22, 2016, 06:04:00 PM
This will end well I'm sure.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 22, 2016, 09:45:12 PM

Hey, Portugal was a pleasant surprise. There is some hope (though I'll probably regret saying this).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on January 22, 2016, 10:10:23 PM

Rajoy said at a press conference held minutes ago that he's gong to stand as candidate  (and subsequently as PP leader). By the moment he rejects the king's offer because he has a majority of the Congress of Deputies against him. However, Mr Rajoy is still hanging on the idea of a Grosse Koalition including PP, PSOE and C's led by himself. The man is  obstinate.



Is there any way for Rajoy to stay PM?  He seems like the best of the bunch!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 23, 2016, 09:18:51 AM
Pedro Sánchez reacts to Mariano Rajoy's move, as well to criticism inside his party, saying that PP must try again. PSOE leadership issued a press release stressing that in the new round of consultations next week it should emerge with the commission of forming a government a person proposed by the first party in the Chamber. Meanwhile, PSOE is not going to undertake negotiations with other parties in order to forge an alternative government . PSOE release charges against Podemos without mentioning it, saying that the surprising offer made by Pablo Iglesias is posed from blackmail and prioritizing party interests to the citizens' interests. Yesterday Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Eduardo Madina said that Iglesias' offer was "insulting" and an attempt to humiliate socialists, demanding respect for the PSOE. Socialists will maintain contacts with all parties in order to assess the situation and find a common ground around Spain's major problems. Sánchez will call Rivera first.

On Jan 30 there's a meeting of the PSOE Federal Committee that promises to be like Vietnam, with 'barons' and 'socialconservatives' in opposition to Pedro Sánchez. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 23, 2016, 09:22:29 AM

Rajoy said at a press conference held minutes ago that he's gong to stand as candidate  (and subsequently as PP leader). By the moment he rejects the king's offer because he has a majority of the Congress of Deputies against him. However, Mr Rajoy is still hanging on the idea of a Grosse Koalition including PP, PSOE and C's led by himself. The man is  obstinate.



Is there any way for Rajoy to stay PM?  He seems like the best of the bunch!

Most unlikely. His party's arrogant style of government during the past legislature have made them essentially toxic, like it happened in 2004. They will whine and complain about a 'stolen' victory and blah, and try - as they have already announced - to make life difficult for any left-wing government by trying to block as much as possible with their Senate majority. Of course, the left-wing only needs to change the electoral system of the Senate (by absolute majority in the lower chamber to overturn the Senate) and employ article 155 to only dissolve the Senate. And no more problem.

Sánchez needs time to build up his links and a coalition. Rajoy has taken that away from him through his announcement yesterday. Humiliating Rajoy on an investiture motion with all parties but the PP voting against him would have built up the cohesion of the various left forces. And Rajoy is not interested in playing that role.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2016, 07:01:19 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Party of acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy would be only one of biggest four to increase number of seats in Parliament if elections were to be repeated, though still insufficient to govern, newspaper says, citing GAD3 poll.
- PP to increase seats to 131 from 123 that were won in Dec. 20 election, while Socialists would lose one seat, to 89: Poll
- Podemos would drop four seats to 65, Ciudadanos falls two seats, to 38
- 802 people were interviewed Jan. 15-21, with 3.5pp margin of error


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2016, 12:24:49 PM
Spain came no closer to see a government formed this weekend, says El País.  Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias had a telephone conversation yesterday. Both disagree on the time frame for beginning negotiations. Sánchez admonished Iglesias for the surprise announcement made on Friday, while the Podemos leader insisted on the need to begin talks. Sánchez, reportedly, would rather wait. The pair are due to talk again this week.

PSOE is facing a huge strategic dilemma, says Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia. According to him, the choice for Spanish socialists is becoming in the 'Responsibility Party' (in the fashion of the SPD) or the 'Explorer Party' (half responsible and half adventurer), in order to stand in the way of the Podemos and avoid the fate of PASOK.

Juliana also remarks that among certain political circles in Madrid was spreading the fear of a leftist government. "Only Felipe González can stop this madness", say the same people that 20 years ago was conspiring against the former socialist PM.

The two competing positions in PSOE (approximate translation):

Pedro Sánchez's partners in the PSOE are closer to the second way (the 'Explorer Party'). "Those who demand responsibility are those who abused of absolute majority (PP) (...). For some people responsibility means placing ourselves at the disposal of PP and becoming in its crutch. Such 'responsiblity' means falling from 22% to 12% of the vote in a short period of time. That would be the materialization of the Podemos' dream: an old PSOE confined in the South of Spain, declining in support among workers and civil servants, annulled in big cities and increasingly weak in Catalonia and the Basque Country (...) The Spanish PASOK. Those who give the example of the SPD seem to ignore that German socialdemocrats are steadily falling in the polls(...) We don't want to follow that path. PSOE must remain a clear alternative to the Spanish right, not a sad subordinate party".

Advocates of the 'Responsibility Party' or the SPD way (the 'social-centrists') say that election results didn't give a mandate for "radical change". Instead, they express a mandate for pact. "Today in Spain, pact is change. PSOE must force PP to pact a 'brave' agenda of reforms, finding a solution that permits the gradual deactivation of separatism in Catalonia (...) Change is the 'correctness of European politics' to stand in the way of 'populism' (...) A very unstable socialist government could lead PSOE to disaster in the short term".

In other news, Pedro Sánchez will try to convince regional 'barons' that in neither case he's going to deal with separatists.

Warnings from Brussels:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/25/inenglish/1453713864_988989.html

Quote
In the wake of Spain’s inconclusive December 20 general election, Brussels is calling for “stability” in the country. The European Commission has kept its distance from the Spanish political scene since the polls, at which no party managed to secure a majority of seats, leaving an uncertain outlook. But its forthcoming Spain 2016 report, due to be made public in February, analyzes the serious imbalances in the economy, and contains a stark warning about the “political risks” in the country.

“The difficulties in forming a government could slow down the agenda of reforms and cause a lack of confidence and a deterioration of market sentiment,” says the draft version of the text, to which EL PAÍS has had access.

“Vulnerability” is the key word in the report. Brussels states in the text that the Spanish economy is recovering, is once again creating jobs, and that its numerous weak points are improving. But it underlines the “huge imbalances” that persist, in particular the high levels of debt – public, private and foreign – and the unemployment rate.

“The country is vulnerable to market volatility,” explains the document, whose principal message is that the Spanish economy is beginning to heal the wounds after the bailout of the banking system in mid-2012, but that it remains at risk if a new crisis unfolds (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 25, 2016, 02:29:52 PM
Hey, Portugal was a pleasant surprise. There is some hope (though I'll probably regret saying this).

Stranger things have certainly happened. Yet I look at certain elements in both Left parties and then I look at the general constitutional crisis that Spain will be embroiled in for years no matter what and then I worry...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 26, 2016, 10:32:34 AM
Ada Colau has broken with Podemos' ranks after Iglesias upset her by copying up to the PSOE. I don't understand what her strategy was in the first place. PSOE was the only viable coalition partner on a national level, and they haven't even ended negotiations.

Brand Podemos is in the gutter in Catalunya according to El Pais (lol). I do wonder what the key difference between Podem, EUiA and the ERC is in the region. Different mafias I guess.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2016, 11:25:49 AM
Ada Colau has broken with Podemos' ranks after Iglesias upset her by copying up to the PSOE.

What? Where did you read this?

To begin with, Ada Colau has never been a member of Podemos. She leads a local party, alliance or platform called Barcelona en Comú. In general elections, she was the virtual leader of an alliance called En Comú Podem (including Podemos, ICV, IU, BComú, social movements and independents). After the recent success of such alliance in Catalonia, her intent is to create a new political party that assembles the Left "overcoming coalitions and alphabet soups".

I don't understand what her strategy was in the first place. PSOE was the only viable coalition partner on a national level, and they haven't even ended negotiations.

PSOE and Podemos have not yet started to negotiate, unless you think that a couple of phone calls and some messages exchanged through What's Up constitute a negotiation.

Brand Podemos is in the gutter in Catalunya according to El Pais (lol).

The brand of Podemos in Catalonia will have to decide joining or not the new party or organisation that Colau wants to create. After the failure of Catalunya Sí que es Pot in regional elections (alliance in which the Mayoress of Barcelona did not take part), the Podemos leadership in Catalonia headed by Gemma Ubasart resigned. Hence, Colau's move catches Podemos in a moment of weakness. The same applies for the ecosocialist ICV (co-speakers Joan Herrera and Dolor Camats are about to be replaced) and the tiny EUiA (the IU brand in the region). The likely outcome is that all these parties will be absorbed into the new organisation led by Ada Colau. Some people in media see a resemblance with the formation of the old PSUC (Socialist Unified Party of Catalonia). In any case, the Colau's organisation will have total autonomy with regard to Podemos.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2016, 12:49:13 PM
Felipe González supports a PP-C's government with the acquiescence of PSOE (abstention in the investiture). Former PM thinks that calling elections again would not be a good thing, but in any case preferable to a leftist coalition with Podemos. González doubts about the sincerity of Pablo Iglesias' proposal for a "government of change". Furthermore, he considers the offer as a "strategy to gobble PSOE in the new elections". In his opinion, early elections would not help PSOE and the party "would suffer a lot" in a coalition with the purple party. It's against this backdrop that FG thinks the best option is the one he supports, providing that PP, PSOE and C's agree a timetable, as well a concrete and signed platform. The new government should have a short mandate.

Former PP, PSOE and UCD ministers signed a manifesto calling for a "government with broad support", formed by "two or more constitutionalist parties".

Add to this pressures from Brussels, economic and financial powers and media. Will Pedro Sánchez, in case he's sure about what he wants to do, resist to that?

EDIT: Apparently Pedro Sánchez is exploring the possibility of a PSOE minority government with the Podemos and C's support. I think that's condemned to fail, given that Podemos and C's are antithetic on economic and territorial policies. Anyway, nothing is impossible in this post-election carousel.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2016, 01:22:53 PM
PP corruption cases set to hinder negotiations with Ciudadanos:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/27/inenglish/1453884424_985650.html

Quote
A day after emerging party Ciudadanos offered to mediate between Spain’s two main groups to break the stalemate and get a government up and running, fresh scandals affecting the Popular Party (PP) are making potential deals increasingly difficult. On Tuesday alone, the PP conservatives were dealt several new blows: 24 people were arrested in the Valencia region in connection with a bribes-for-contracts investigation; former government official Rodrigo Rato became embroiled in a new probe, and former minister Miguel Arias Cañete, now an EU commissioner, is under scrutiny over a corruption scandal at a state agency called Acuamed.

Podemos sent to the "nosebleed section" of the Congress

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/26/inenglish/1453821405_849690.html

Distribution of seats agreed by the Board of the Chamber (left) and Podemos' proposal (right)

()



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 01, 2016, 02:07:28 PM
Rita Barberá's inner circle is all eseentially under investigation. In fact, all 10 PP city councillors in Valencia are being investigated for various corruption-related charges.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 01, 2016, 06:58:01 PM
Has anybody used the classic "Oh, I'm really good at winning the lottery" line yet?

Also, lmao at that seating allocation. I'm guessing that was the suggestion that came after seating all the Podemos MP's in the corridor.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 01, 2016, 08:13:24 PM
 
Has anybody used the classic "Oh, I'm really good at winning the lottery" line yet?

Yes, a certain Carlos Fabra became renowned for that. Fabra was Presidente de la Diputación de Castellón (Chief of the provincial government of Castellón) and a leading figure of PP in the Valencia region.

Also, lmao at that seating allocation. I'm guessing that was the suggestion that came after seating all the Podemos MP's in the corridor.

Apparently the proposal came from PSOE. Someone must hate purple boys so much in the Socialist Party, formerly known as the 'Common House of the Left' ;D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 02, 2016, 01:18:03 PM
The King has not offered Rajoy the possibility of forming a government. In the meantime, Rajoy will refuse to talk to PSOE unless PSOE agrees to support him first. Sánchez is now ready to try and go through the investiture session if the King asks him to and Rajoy continues to refuse.

Meanwhile, within the PP many people want a proper renovation, if not outright rebranding à la AP-PP, of the party in a post-Rajoy time. Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help. Also developing actual anti-corruption policies beyond saying that politicians should give example.

The King is to meet with Patxi López, the President of the Congress of Deputies at 19:30 (so in 14 minutes) to announce him the name of his candidate to the investiture. We shall see if this time the King does put forward someone's name. I suspect it'll be Sánchez though. It seems like things are getting easier for him, even though Podemos yesterday made a ridiculous proposal in which it already picked the ministers and the portfolios for PSOE ministers!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 02, 2016, 02:23:29 PM
And indeed the King has tasked Sánchez with the role of formateur. Since there's no time limit in the law between the proposal and the first vote on the investiture, and this is decided by the President of the Congress (Patxi López, PSOE), Sánchez will have some advantage on his side.

In any case, López has already told the press that Sánchez has told him that he'll require 3-4 weeks to negotiate (they could have started in January!) an agreement. That would place the first investiture vote on February 25th or March 1st. And the second one within less than a week from them, iirc.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 02, 2016, 02:30:25 PM
Albert Rivera (C's) besides other conditions, has said their support for a Government (beyond Transition 2.0, progressive welfare state, liberal economy) is dependent on a policy of further European integration or even the United States of Europe. Man, sometimes it's incredible how different political cultures are across Europe. In Spain, a politician speaks of USE and it's awesome and being  Eurosceptic is the political equivalent of being a Maoist.

I love Spain for these lil' quirks.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on February 02, 2016, 02:49:32 PM
Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.
What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 02, 2016, 03:04:45 PM
Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.
What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)

No sorry, I was being cheeky. Digital in this sense means the old-fashioned meaning of digital, from Latin 'digitus', finger. Appointment through finger-pointing by your predecessor.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on February 02, 2016, 03:14:45 PM
Ending the digital selection system of candidates might help.
What's problematic about it? Seems like it would make it harder for corrupt cliques to stitch things up. (If I understand you correctly - you mean party members choosing candidates in an online vote, right?)

No sorry, I was being cheeky. Digital in this sense means the old-fashioned meaning of digital, from Latin 'digitus', finger. Appointment through finger-pointing by your predecessor.
Thanks, that makes sense! I have actually heard of the expression, it just didn't translate well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2016, 09:03:24 PM
This is starting to look a lot like Italy 2013...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2016, 09:29:22 PM
Results of the 2015 General Election in the municipality of Madrid.  

()

Overall results:

PP                 35.72 %  (-15.79%)
PODEMOS     20.82 %     (new)
C's                17.42 %     (new)
PSOE            16.98 %    (-8.74%)
IU-UP              5.33 %   (-2.56%)
UPYD               1.27 %   (-8.49%)
VOX                 0.74%     (new)
PACMA             0.67%   (+0.32%)

Best and worst districts by party:

PP
Best: Salamanca (51.95%), Chamartín (51.63%), Chamberí (46.92%), Moncloa-Aravaca (45.31%)
Worst: Puente de Vallecas (20.75%), Villa de Vallecas (21.98%), Vicálvaro (24.10%), Villaverde (25.14%)

Podemos
Best: Centro (32.84%), Puente de Vallecas (32.35%), Villa de Vallecas (29.81%), Usera (26.27%)
Worst: Chamartín (11.12%), Salamanca (11.71%), Chamberí (14.75%), Moncloa-Aravaca (15.56%)

Ciudadanos
Best: Barajas (23.02%), Hortaleza (21.37%), Fuencarral-El Pardo (20.86%), Chamartín (20.59%)
Worst: Puente de Vallecas (11.07%), Usera (13.59%), Villaverde (13.86%), Centro (14.19%)

PSOE
Best: Puente de Vallecas (25.86%), Villaverde (25.63%), Usera (24.76%), Vicálvaro (21.49%)
Worst: Chamartín (9.53%), Salamanca (10.00%), Chamberí (10.94%), Retiro (11.95%)

IU-UP
Best: Centro (7.99%), Arganzuela (6.82%), Puente de Vallecas (6.71%), Vicálvaro (6.62%)
Worst: Salamanca (3.30%), Chamartín (3.44%), Fuencarral-El Pardo (4.32%), Chamberí (4.37%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 04, 2016, 04:09:58 AM
Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

I don't see a clear pattern for C's, they are stronger in the wealthier north (to be expected) but for instance their best result is in Barajas, which is not precisely Madrid's wealthiest district. Also, I wonder if the voters from Salamanca would ever stop voting PP, maybe if Rajoy is caught ritually sacrificing Aguirre to the Gods of electoral repetition?

The divide is crazy though, I was working out the results for the 2008 elections in my electoral model, and the Madrid Sur district (Arganzuela, Latina, Carabanchel, Usera, Puente-Vallecas, Moratalaz, Villaverde, Villa-Vallecas, San Blas and Barajas) was strongly left-wing (in one of them PCPE or POSI came third lol) whereas the PP has their best results in Madrid Norte. Even better than in Murcia.

By the way, Velasco, could I use the colour key? I wanted to use it for the maps, since it's quite nice.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 04, 2016, 06:57:27 AM
January CIS poll and difference December 2015 election. Polling held between 6 and 11 of January.

PP: 28,8% (-0.1), Podemos: 21,9% (+1.4), PSOE: 20,5% (-1.5), C's: 13,3% (-0.4), IU: 3,7% (=)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 04, 2016, 11:02:52 AM
Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

Well, the most populous neighbourhood in the the district of Centro is Lavapiés. That place is consistently left-wing. As well Podemos was officially launched there, at Teatro del Barrio. It's not exactly a wealthy neighbourhood, but it's somewhat gentrified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavapi%C3%A9s

Quote
Lavapiés was long considered the most "typical" neighborhood of Madrid; humble and somewhat neglected. Now its large immigrant population has given it an exotic, cosmopolitan flavor and it draws many visitors from other parts of Madrid, as well as foreign tourists (...)

In the late 1980s and 1990s, Lavapiés had acquired a reputation as a "vertical slum", with its tenement blocks either empty or occupied by older people paying low rents. As a result, it became the most important location for okupación, or squatting, in Madrid.

More recently, it has become the focal point for immigrant populations, from the Indian subcontinent Chinese, Arabs and Senegalese. It has been estimated that around 60% of the population is of foreign origin and that there are 82 different nationalities represented.

West of Calle Ave María has a very high percentage of immigrant residents and shops and restaurants are almost exclusively owned by Chinese people, Indians, Bangaledeshis, Maghrebis and Middle Easterners. East of Calle Ave María, while still maintaining a socialist atmosphere in relation to the other areas of Madrid, has a far higher Spanish occupancy and eating/night scene.

There is a consistent police presence in Plaza de Lavapiés, as well as a high level of open drug selling. Aside from the police, the area is relatively safe in the south and east end. Surveillance cameras are present throughout the neighborhood.

The architecture of Lavapiés, much like other barrios of Madrid (including Malasaña, La Latina and Chueca) is rather uniform with similar height, windows, balconies, pastel colours and shop/apartment set up. However, Lavapiés is unique in that there are steep hills creating a dramatic effect on some streets as well as tall trees unique to the centre of Madrid.

At the end of the 1990s, a programme of urban renewal was begun, in the hope of bringing in more prosperous residents attracted to its Bohemian atmosphere. The resulting sharp increase in rents has driven out much of its previous population (...)

The area has evolved from almost projecting a level of high impoverishment to a more multicultural entity within Madrid's metropolitan area. Much of this attitude or culture can be seen in the graffiti that is often on display in the walls. Much of it speaks of an attitude that can be traced to an era in which many of its citizens portrayed an anti-Franco sentiment; however there are some writings are more artistic in nature. Furthermore, many graffiti artists in the area are talented, politically minded leftists and anarchists. Street art is a visible reminder of the neightborhood's history and present as an often revolutionary and anti-capitalist tendency (...)

Calle Ave María and East of it, are many alternative bars not to mention fringe meetings (parties or artistic/musical meetings) also happen in abandoned or unliscened premises (...)

I don't see a clear pattern for C's, they are stronger in the wealthier north (to be expected) but for instance their best result is in Barajas, which is not precisely Madrid's wealthiest district. Also, I wonder if the voters from Salamanca would ever stop voting PP, maybe if Rajoy is caught ritually sacrificing Aguirre to the Gods of electoral repetition?

As you say, C's is stronger in the north. UPyD used to perform strongly in Barajas, Hortaleza or Fuencarral-El Pardo (surprisingly in Vicálvaro, too). In wealthy conservative districts such as Chamartín, Salamanca, etcetera, it came in second place. The worst districts for C's are old working class neighbourhoods (Puente de Vallecas, Usera, Villaverde) and Centro. However, you can see that C's did better in the SE periphery (San Blas, Vicálvaro, Villa de Vallecas). Maybe the reason (I'm speculating) is that said districts have a lower average age. 'New' parties perform better among young voters.

For instance, Rivas-Vaciamadrid is located SE of Madrid, contiguous to the Vicálvaro district. It's the fastest-growing municipality in Spain and attracts young residents from the capital. There, Podemos came first but C's performed strongly too. Through the link you can see results by census section:

http://elecciones.rivasciudad.es/2015/generales/index.php

Related to this, Spain is losing population since 2012 due to the economic crisis. In metropolitan areas the trend is that population is diminishing in the core, but suburban municipalities are still growing (San Sebastián de los Reyes, Las Rozas, Pozuelo, Getafe or the aforementioned Rivas in the Madrid region). There is a map through the link:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/29/media/1454085215_892068.html

By the way, Velasco, could I use the colour key? I wanted to use it for the maps, since it's quite nice.

Of course. You can download Inkscape too: it's free ;)

 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 04, 2016, 11:37:15 AM
Interesting. You can clearly see the north-south divide in Europe's most unequal capital. Well, with the exception of Centro, which I support shows a much more gentrified, pijoprogre kind of left, as opposed to the working-class areas in the south.

Well, the most populous neighbourhood in the the district of Centro is Lavapiés. That place is consistently left-wing. As well Podemos was officially launched there, at Teatro del Barrio. It's not exactly a wealthy neighbourhood, but it's somewhat gentrified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavapi%C3%A9s

Oh, my bad. I honestly thought Centro would be more dimigraphically similar to Salamanca, but well I do know about Lavapies' reputation, just didn't figure out it's within Centro.

Quote
As you say, C's is stronger in the north. UPyD used to perform strongly in Barajas, Lavapiés or Fuencarral-El Pardo (surprisingly in Vicálvaro, too). In wealthy conservative districts such as Chamartín, Salamanca, etcetera, it came in second place. The worst districts for C's are old working class neighbourhoods (Puente de Vallecas, Usera) and Centro. However, you can see that C's did better in the SE periphery (San Blas, Vicálvaro, Villa de Vallecas). Maybe the reason (I'm speculating) is that said districts have a lower average age. 'New' parties perform better among young voters.

For instance, Rivas-Vaciamadrid is located SE of Madrid, contiguous to the Vicálvaro district. It's the fastest-growing municipality in Spain and attracts young residents from the capital. There, Podemos came first but C's performed strongly too. Through the link you can see results by census section:

http://elecciones.rivasciudad.es/2015/generales/index.php

Yeah, I remember, it's also a very left-wing municipality in any case. Although it would be interesting to look at how it voted in the late 1990s when the PP was more popular among the youth than the PSOE. I still wonder whether Vaciamadrid stands for Va hacia Madrid (go to Madrid) or Vacía Madrid (Madrid emptier)

EDIT:

In 1993, PSOE received 40.32% votes (and PP was third after IU!), in 1996, PSOE 36.45 (and PP 32.07) and even in 2000 PSOE still came ahead of the PP: 39.03 vs. 36.82.

Quote
Related to this, Spain is losing population since 2012 due to the economic crisis. In metropolitan areas the trend is that population is diminishing in the core, but suburban municipalities are still growing (San Sebastián de los Reyes, Las Rozas, Pozuelo, Getafe or the aforementioned Rivas in the Madrid region). There is a map through the link:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/29/media/1454085215_892068.html

True, but the suburbanisation is a demographic trends since the 1990s, isn't it? Also, a word for non-Spaniards, suburbs in Spain are also flat-dominated, they are more "ciudades dormitorio" (sleeping-only cities?) than American-style (or even European style) detached house suburbs. For some reason, Spaniards love to live in flats.


Quote
Of course. You can download Inkscape too: it's free ;)

That I have, no worries. So do you have like a scale from 0 to 100? Because I've noticed in your maps on St. Brendan's Island blog that starting and finishing colouring varies.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 04, 2016, 12:13:26 PM
That I have, no worries. So do you have like a scale from 0 to 100? Because I've noticed in your maps on St. Brendan's Island blog that starting and finishing colouring varies.

Yes, it's something like that. I'll send you RGB codes via PM when I can.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 04, 2016, 05:08:39 PM

Quote
Related to this, Spain is losing population since 2012 due to the economic crisis. In metropolitan areas the trend is that population is diminishing in the core, but suburban municipalities are still growing (San Sebastián de los Reyes, Las Rozas, Pozuelo, Getafe or the aforementioned Rivas in the Madrid region). There is a map through the link:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/29/media/1454085215_892068.html

True, but the suburbanisation is a demographic trends since the 1990s, isn't it? Also, a word for non-Spaniards, suburbs in Spain are also flat-dominated, they are more "ciudades dormitorio" (sleeping-only cities?) than American-style (or even European style) detached house suburbs. For some reason, Spaniards love to live in flats.

Yes, that trend started before. The article I linked before says that suburban municipalities are still growing. The translation for "ciudades dormitorio" is "dormitory towns" and yes, in many of those suburbs flats and apartments are the prevailing typology (especially in working class suburban municipalities like Getafe, Móstoles, Alcorcón and such). However, attached villas ("chalets adosados") have spread in many areas (see Rivas) and obviously in wealthier municipalities independent villas and mansions are more widespread. To take an example in Alcobendas municipality, there are big differences between La Moraleja (a luxury development where Cristiano Ronaldo lives) and the town centre. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 05, 2016, 10:38:06 PM
PSOE and Podemos don't love one another:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/05/inenglish/1454686165_156868.html

Quote
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez on Friday rejected a demand by Pablo Iglesias of Podemos to choose between his party and Ciudadanos during negotiations about a possible formation of a new Spanish government.

Sánchez met for an hour with Iglesias in Congress for the first time since the Socialist leader was invited by King Felipe VI to try to piece together a coalition government.

After their meeting, Iglesias publicly asked Sánchez to cancel his plans to form a coalition with Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos and enter an exclusive agreement with Podemos. Sánchez and Rivera had already agreed on Thursday to start negotiating a pact.

Sánchez said that he will continue holding talks with all the political parties, including Ciudadanos.

“There are issues that separate us, but there is one thing that unites us, and that is we need to put an end to the government of Mariano Rajoy and the PP,” the Socialist secretary general said.

Nevertheless, he said that he is willing to talk with Rajoy, even telling him to “pick up the phone” to call him. But he will not make a deal with the PP. “I am waiting for his call,” he said.

For his part, Iglesias said that Podemos would not continue negotiating with the Socialists while it was holding talks with Rivera.

”If the PSOE wants to go in that direction, we are willing to start working now. If they continue to think that they can shift to the right at the other group’s command, we do not agree with this,” Iglesias said.

“I told Pedro that it was better if he made up his mind quick: I want you to pick us,” said the Podemos leader, who has been proposing a leftist coalition with the Socialists, United Left (IU) and other minor partie (...)

PSOE and C's agreed to start negotiating a government program in a meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera on Thursday. C's leader persisted in his role of facilitator ("if the PP and PSOE do not drop this cold war, there will be no agreement”). Nobody in PSOE -including Susana Díaz and the 'barons'- wants to deal with PP, because that would be granting conservatives pardon in the midst of a new chapter of their never-ending corruption saga. On the other hand, it's becoming apparent that Sánchez has a better tune with Rivera. Also, the moderate profile of PSOE's negotiating team points to a deal with oranges. The problem is that numbers don't add up, unless PP or Podemos abstain in the investiture. Both parties made clear that they will vote against Sánchez in the eventuality of a PSOE-C's agreement.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 05, 2016, 10:47:29 PM
General Election results in Barcelona municipality by district

()

Full results:

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES/CA09/08/08019

Vote distribution by census section:

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/resultados-elecciones-generales-2015-barcelona-calle-barrio-4774203



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 06, 2016, 10:46:11 AM
Iglesias is being ridiculous by insisting that Sanchez should only negotiate with him and Garzon. The numbers don't add up without Cs or the nationalists, and Cs seems a more likely candidate. It's obvious Iglesias is already ogling the new elections.

Btw, Valencia should be extremely interesting, Es El Moment obtained 45% votes iirc.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 09, 2016, 09:43:11 AM
PSOE released a document yesterday

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/08/inenglish/1454943596_857958.html

Quote
A 53-page document seeking support for Sánchez’s investiture bid was made public on Monday and calls on all Spanish parties to show “generosity and a desire for dialogue.”

“The nature and scope of the reforms we must undertake will require participation and attention from everyone,” reads the document. “Only this will make it possible for the new period opening up before us to extend its effects for decades in benefit of all citizens – those of us who are here today and those who will come after us.”

In his effort to build the greatest possible political consensus, Sánchez is reaching out to the emerging parties to his left (Podemos and United Left) and to his right (Ciudadanos).

This effort involves underscoring common views – such as renegotiating Spain’s budget deficit targets with Brussels – and underplaying potential sticking points, such as the the Catalan independence movement.

The document presented on Monday “is very consistent with our election program and it also includes proposals from parties that we are going to meet with,” said Sánchez during a radio interview.

“We’re not about drawing red lines, we have strong beliefs and there is still a lot of leeway for us to find common ground,” he added. “I am grateful to the parties that have agreed to meet us, for not exercising vetoes.”

The anti-austerity Podemos group has refused to join the multiparty talks as long as Ciudadanos are a part of them. On Monday, Sánchez encouraged Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias to throw aside that caveat (...)

Finally the Board of the Congress agreed to rectify the seating location of Podemos MPs. This is the final allocation:

()

In other news, the Noós corruption trial restarts. King Felipe's sister Cristina de Borbón will be the last to take the stand. Main defendants are her husband Iñaki Urdangarín, former regional politicians from Valencia, Balearic Islands and Madrid and several businessmen.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/09/inenglish/1455005745_805985.html

PP withdrew former Mayoress of Valencia Rita Barberá from the chairmanship of the Senate's Constitutional Commission, but placed her in the Standing Committee. In case elections have to be repeated, Barberá will retain her position as member of the Upper House. Given that legislators and other elected officials enjoy a special jurisdiction in Spain, that appointment seeks to protect her from the implications of the new corruption scandal involving 9 out of 10 current councilors of the Popular Party in the city of Valencia.. In any case, the woman who was once a "PP icon" and the "Mayoress of Spain" has fallen from grace in her own party. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 14, 2016, 11:28:42 AM
Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 14, 2016, 12:35:39 PM
Y'know I joked about PP being a criminal enterprise masquerading as a party? I'm starting to think that wasn't hyberbole, lol.

Meanwhile in Madrid, two puppeters have been arrested for making some deranged satire involving murder, rape and the ETA, after their show was accidentally marketed to kiddies (http://www.inquisitr.com/2780228/spanish-puppeteers-jailed-for-satiric-puppet-show-in-madrid-celebrating-terrorism/)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2016, 02:14:49 PM
Y'know I joked about PP being a criminal enterprise masquerading as a party? I'm starting to think that wasn't hyberbole, lol.

Meanwhile in Madrid, two puppeters have been arrested for making some deranged satire involving murder, rape and the ETA, after their show was accidentally marketed to kiddies (http://www.inquisitr.com/2780228/spanish-puppeteers-jailed-for-satiric-puppet-show-in-madrid-celebrating-terrorism/)

WHAT


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 14, 2016, 04:05:16 PM
Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.

Surprising. Cifuentes must be so happy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 14, 2016, 04:27:26 PM
Y'know I joked about PP being a criminal enterprise masquerading as a party? I'm starting to think that wasn't hyberbole, lol.

Meanwhile in Madrid, two puppeters have been arrested for making some deranged satire involving murder, rape and the ETA, after their show was accidentally marketed to kiddies (http://www.inquisitr.com/2780228/spanish-puppeteers-jailed-for-satiric-puppet-show-in-madrid-celebrating-terrorism/)

Puppeteers were released a couple of days ago. They were arrested on baseless arguments. In my opinion, the arrest was politically motivated.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/10/inenglish/1455119040_652426.html

The whole incident is shameful. It's the consequence of restrictive security laws (the infamous 'gag law', the anti-terrorist law), a taboo on ETA terrorism, political correctness... and obviously it has been used by conservative media in Madrid as a weapon against the local government (Ahora Madrid, a platform that includes Podemos). A more or less irrelevant error in the program of events (the show was a bit strong for children, and that is all) becoming in an artificially inflated political scandal. All the Spanish Right screaming blue murder and blah, blah, blah.

Esperanza Aguirre resigns as regional leader of PP in Madrid, leaving Mariano Rajoy in bad place. "Corruption is killing us. I assume the political responsibility". Three days ago, the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) registered Madrid PP HQs in search for illegal party funding evidence.

Surprising. Cifuentes must be so happy.

It's a resignation with a trick. Aguirre will continue as Madrid councilor, leading the opposition against Manuela Carmena. I'm afraid that she's not going to quit definitely.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 14, 2016, 04:34:04 PM
Velasco, you must realise that to this day that ETA and their victims is very much a sensitive topic for the right-wing electorate. It's their version of political correctness (the left has their own, but we never talk of the ones the right has), but the play was certainly of bad taste, but not to keep two nobodies in prison for 5 days without bail over a play.

But the PP does what it does best, politicise ETA, even after it's basically dead. I wonder what they'll do once that boogeyman is gone. Venezuela is not so psychologically strong.

Anyhow, poll of polls (12/02):

PP: 28.2 (-0.5), PSOE: 21.6 (-0.4), Podemos: 20.9 (+0.3), C's: 15.9 (+2), IU: 3.9 (+0.2)

Although this fails to take into account the recent string of PP corruption scandals in Madrid, Valencia and Murcia (minor, but right on time for Rajoy's visit to Murcia).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 14, 2016, 04:37:05 PM
Yes, I realise. As you say, bad taste is not enough motivation for five days of solitary confinement under the anti-terrorist law.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 15, 2016, 03:42:13 PM
Investiture session scheduled to begin on March 2; vote will take place the following day. Pedro Sánchez told Speaker Patxi López that he hopes to have garnered enough support by then.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/15/inenglish/1455531959_507383.html

Meanwhile, Pablo Iglesias presented a document to the media. It's the Podemos counter-offer to the document submitted by socialists days ago, setting priorities for negotiation. The purple party advocates for "urgent changes" in government restructuring. Also, the paper describes the role Pablo Iglesias should have as Deputy Prime Minister and demands a Catalan referendum at the beginning of the term.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/15/inenglish/1455547524_271299.html

PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando reacted to this with "perplexity", stating that Pablo Iglesias seems to ignore his role in the present situation. In other words, he said that Pedro Sánchez is the one who must take the initiative in negotiations, given that he has the commission to form a government.

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

In other news, Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes will assume regional leadership of PP after the resignation of Esperanza Aguirre and until a new regional congress takes place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Diouf on February 15, 2016, 04:34:06 PM
On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 16, 2016, 02:28:49 AM
On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?

Yes, but it cannot happen. Although constitutional reforms don't fix much, despite our obsession with them, electoral reform, if one wants to move towards a very different system, does require constitutional reform because the Constitution establishes the province as the basis electoral unit. That hurts IU, which does not have enough votes to successfully concentrate them. At best a mild electoral reform (upping the number of MPs to 400, allocating 1 instead of 2 seats per province) could improve their situation, but nothing drastic.

Personally I have my very sincere doubts about whether that would be a good system in the first place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 16, 2016, 05:34:52 AM
Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 16, 2016, 01:35:02 PM
Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 16, 2016, 03:16:06 PM
Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.

Honestly, the two minor reforms I outlined above, combined with changing from Hont to Hare or some such would be enough to increase proportionality without needing to change the constitutional text, which is impossible in this legislature, unless we also change the Senate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 17, 2016, 09:55:12 PM
Basque Country and Galicia will hold regional elections this year. According to a poll released on Feb 16 and conducted by Ikertalde and the Basque government (Cabinet of Sociological Surveying), the 75 seats of the Basque Parliament would be distributed as follows:

PNV 24, Podemos 18, EH Bildu 15, PSE-EE 9, PP 8, C's 1

Breakdown by province

Álaba-Araba: EAJ-PNV 22.1% (6), Podemos 21.3% (6), PP 17.3% (5), EH Bildu 17.1% (4), PSE-EE 11.8% (3), C's 5% (1)

Bizkaia (Biscay): EAJ-PNV 35.7% (10), Podemos 19.9% (6), EH Bildu 15.5% (4), PSE-EE 11.6% (3), PP 8.7% (2)

Gipuzkoa: PNV 28.2% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 25.9% (7), Podemos 21.1% (6), PSE-EE 12.8% (3), PP 5.3% (1)

Sample 2310. Fieldwork: Jan 25 to Feb 2.

https://www.euskadi.eus/contenidos/informe_estudio/o_16sv60prevision/es_def/adjuntos/16sv60_previsiones.pdf

http://www.electograph.com/2016/02/pais-vasco-febrero-2016-sondeo.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 17, 2016, 11:02:43 PM
As for the complex negotiations to form a government, PSOE and C's staged their good working relationship. Spokesmen Antonio Hernando (PSOE) and José Manuel Villegas (C's) talked of "significant breakthroughs". Both parties reached partial agreements on social policies, "democratic regeneration" and fight against corruption. However, they have some discrepancies on labour and fiscal policies. PSOE wants to repeal current labour laws, while C's only wants a partial reform. C's is firmly opposed to raise taxes, advocating for a reduction for the middle class.

Hernando was very optimistic and is convinced that C's will vote in favour of Sanchez's investiture once the agreement is reached. Villegas, on the other hand, told that reds and oranges found some common ground but the agreement must be global. Oranges stand firm on their will to abstain in the investiture, at best and in case of agreement.
 
PSOE and C's are seeking to put pressure on PP and Podemos.

As for the relationship between PSOE and Podemos, they are at odds. Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are mutually suspicious.

According to Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia, Pedro Sánchez is trying to make a string with 143 pearls. He has already 90, but is 53 pearls short. The pearls Sánchez wants to add to the string belong to C's (40), PNV (6), Compromís (4), IU (2) and CC (1).

Also, Sánchez needs that Podemos (65) abstains in the second investiture vote. ERC (9) and CDC ( 8 ) threaten to vote against. Adding PP (123) and EH Bildu (2), black pearls would total 142.

That string is extremely fragile. According to Juliana, the support from C's and the other parties depends on a guarantee of victory that lies on the Podemos' abstention. In case the string breaks, Pedro Sánchez could reach the investiture session with only 90 pearls. In the worst scenario for Sánchez, 'baroness' Susana Díaz could wear her best necklace in Holy Week processions (very popular among Andalusians). So far, PSOE leader has surprised some people showing skills for survival. We will soon see how far he can go.    



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 19, 2016, 02:10:27 AM
Popular Party offers two deputy PM posts to Socialists and Ciudadanos

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/18/inenglish/1455809606_024665.html

Quote
The Popular Party (PP), which has been struggling to find support to form a coalition government after the December general election, has offered Socialist secretary general Pedro Sánchez and the leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, positions as deputy prime ministers in a broad partnership for a new government.

Interim Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy did not have a problem working with Sánchez as a deputy leader even after the Socialist chief attacked him personally during the campaign debates, said Javier Maroto, national sectorial deputy secretary for the PP on Thursday.

Maroto also said Rajoy was willing to offer a second deputy prime minister post to Rivera, whose party was quick to reject the offer.

Ciudadanos deputy secretary general José Manuel Villegas told EL PAÍS that its priority was to negotiate with the Socialists, whose leader is the person charged by King Felipe to try to form a government.

“Rajoy is not the candidate. There is nothing to talk about,” he said.

For his part, Socialist leader Sánchez has insisted that he will not join a government led by Rajoy. The two met briefly in Congress last week but no agreements were hammered out (...)

Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Podemos, which is now the third political force in Spain, has demanded that he serve as deputy prime minister and take over 15 ministries as part of his proposal to form a leftist coalition with Sánchez.

The Socialists have publicly rejected this offer, but Sánchez said he would meet one more time with Iglesias before the investiture session.

Pointless gestures. Mariano Rajoy is just waiting Pedro Sánchez crashes. Yesterday in Brussels, Mr Rajoy told David Cameron and other EU leaders that Sánchez will fail in all likelihood and new elections will be called on June 26, that is apparently the date scheduled for the Brexit referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 21, 2016, 06:23:17 AM
Sigma Dos for El Mundo:

()

PP: 27.8% (-0.9), 119 seats (-4);
PSOE: 23.1% (+1.1), 93 seats (+3);
Podemos: 18.8% (-1.2), 60 seats (-9);
Ciudadanos: 15.3% (+1.4), 50 seats (+10);
IU: 4.0% (+0.3), 3 seats (+1)

Details: 1.000 interview. Margin of error: ±3.16%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 25, 2016, 05:09:14 AM
PSOE and Ciudadanos signed a deal yesterday, deemed as "historical" and "the beginning of a New Time (Segunda Transición)". PSOE made concessions on economy and labour laws. Territorial model and Catalonia were bypassed. As a result, oranges changed their minds and will support Pedro Sánchez's investiture. The only Canary Coalition MP joined the signatories and will vote "yes". The support of Basque nationalists is uncertain. So far, the PSOE candidate has 131 votes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456324792_423826.html

The Big Centre Daydream lasted only a few hours. PP spokepersons made clear previously their opposition to a PSOE-C's deal that makes Pedro Sánchez PM. Podemos rejected the agreement shortly after:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456304567_413109.html?rel=mas

Later, IU MP Alberto Garzón and Compromís spokesman Joan Baldoví announced they withdraw from the quadripartite negotiations between leftist parties and PSOE. These negotiations could be eventually retaken after the first investiture session, given that Podemos spokepersons say the hand is still open. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 25, 2016, 11:22:15 AM
On economic issues, the agreement is fairly progressive, it includes improvements in temporary works, the development of proper state-sponsored work training and work-search systems, work benefits or a sort of minimum income for those without work income.

I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 26, 2016, 03:51:27 AM
I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.

Podemos issued a press release explaining the reasons why they cannot join the agreement. According to El Mundo, they are:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/02/24/56cdaa0646163f0a1b8b466e.html

1) Labour reforms approved by PP (2012) and PSOE (2010) are not repealed.

2) Both parties oppose a referendum in Catalonia.

3) The deal does not recognize the multinational character of the Spanish State

4) The deal does not include a "progressive taxation reform". Podemos wants to raise the maximum rate (income up to 300,000 Euros) from 45% to 55%.

5) The agreement does not repeal the reform of Article 135 of the Spanish Constitution agreed by PP and PSOE which prioritizes debt payment. Such reform was approved in the last period of Zapatero's administration, when former socialist PM was pressured to make a radical change in economic policies, implement cuts, etcetera. Sanchez promised to reverse the reform during the campaign. Also, the repeal of Art 135 is one of the Podemos' bait flags.

6) It doesn't ban "revolving doors", expression that means former senior Govt officials joining the boards of big 'strategic' enterprises (energy and others). That is another major issue for the aubergine party. The PSOE-C's deal expands incompatibility period to 5 years.

7) Podemos, PSOE and C's agree on the unsustainability of the pace of the deficit reduction demanded by Brussels. However, Podemos differs in the method to slow down such reduction to an affordable pace.

8 ) Podemos thinks there is little increase in public investment that purples deem necessary to improve economy and job creation.
 
9) Podemos demands lowering VAT for food and non-alcoholic beverages to a super reduced 4% rate, basic supplies (electricity, heating and gas) to 10%. As well, Podemos wants to increase VAT for luxury goods to 25%.

10)  Podemos wants the complete repeal of the citizen security law passed by PP and better known as 'gag law'. The PSOE-C's agreement only contemplates to repeal those matters appealed to the Constitutional Court.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 26, 2016, 06:54:36 AM
Thaks for that, Velasco, some degree of viscerality is gone, although I still hear Garzón's 'it's regressive' comment in my head. But that's not Podemos' fault :P

. Although my main issue with those Podemos' objection and some points of PSOE-C's agreement is that they require a constitutional change, which is impossible to happen with the PP holding over 1/3 of Congress and the majority in the Senate. They are pipe dreams at least with Rajoy still leading the PP.

Anyhow,

The Huffington Post recently published a very interesting article about Podemos' difficult attitude to the deal:

Link (in Spanihs). Huffington Post (http://"http://www.huffingtonpost.es/pilar-portero-y-ana-canil/podemos-dividido-entre-el_b_9304820.html") Did my best at translating it.

Quote
[SIZE="4"]Podemos, divided between the 'no' and abstention[/SIZE]

In Podemos, right now, there is the only unanimity about one issue: They no longer want early elections. Now it is a matter of deciding, within the week, if they permit a PSOE-Ciudadanos government, because with just their abstention, Rajoy would depart the Presidency.In the last few days, the party has moved from blocking the PSOE's negotiation to seriously ponder about abstaining. If until this week, the official line was that of Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero of crushing any agreement based on the assignment of ministries, now the current in favour of abstaining in the second round, led by people close to Íñigo Errejón, is gaining weight. "It would be the smartest thing. This Govenrment - if created - will not last longer than a year and a half, time enough for us to win institutional experience and we can become the hard opposition and position ourselves as the leaders of the left against a PSOE that has embraced the new right" claim sources from this current.
 
In the two days of meetings with Podemos, the PSOE  negotiation team has perceived that two souls are starting to become clear within Podemos itself, besides the divisions between Podemos and the confluences [name for Podemos alliance with other parties in Valencia, Galicia and Catalonia] "It seems like there are two voices. In the meetings there's been a 180º change. There haven't been so many discrepancies neither about concepts nor vision. There have been no vetoes. We have talked about a programme and not about Government. It's entirely different from what you hear Pablo Iglesias says when he speaks before the press, and one can not understand it" says a source close to the PSOE's negotiators.

The explanation is that it's a political and not ideological mater, as several Podemos deputies answer every time someone asks them about what sets them apart from the PSOE. "Neither the territorial leaders nor the party rank-and-file, nor the party's leadership have liked the way in which the agreement has been blocked from the get-go, with the demanding tone and about how to form the Government. Now, polls reveal that, obviously,  the ones who least understand this attitude are our voters" points a high-ranking Podemos member, who is also worried about being seen as voting together with the PP in the 'no' to Pedro Sánchez. There are some shocking details: This conversation had to take place, at his own request, away from Parliament, because inside he feels watched by his own people and the internal situation is quite tense.

There are those who are less worried about voicing their opinion, always off the record. "The [political] landscape has radically shifted since the December election. As soon as we arrived here [Parliament], the differences with the confluences have become glaring. It's obvious Compromís is its own entity, and they are proving that's the case, whereas the Galician mareas confound us. The other day they went to the negotiations with the PSOE with two different documenrs, and there only two Galician representative,s so each had its own paper. Only Doménech (Ada Colau's second in command) has ideological coherence, but although he's close to Pablo Iglesias, EnComú [Catalonia's Podemos confluence] has a life of its own, like Compromís. How can we risk new elections, if its likely that we would not go together?" says one of the organisations' cadres in a corner of a corridor, and who is doubting between the advantages of voting 'no' or abstaining.

Abstention is not out of the table - although this is a tactful topic as it could result in further political struggles between the followers of Errejón (errejonistas) and those of Irene Montero (monteristas), a leader that has lost some political capital but still important in the party. This Podemos cadre also employs economic arguments: Allowing Sánchez and Rivera to govern for over a year would permit them to try and fix the issue of the 10 billion cuts that Brussels asks for as a result of the poor accounting of the PP and to see how the manage to govern with a budget passed by the previous government and which would limit their manoeuvre capacities unless it's amended through decrees, something hard and politically uncomfortable. Meanwhile, leading the left opposition, the people in charge of defending a more social approach would also have the time to prepare politically and those months of preparation would come in handy.

Paradoxically, the matter is who can dare to tell that to Pablo Iglesias, when every passing day it becomes harder to talk to him and for him to listen at what others have to say.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on February 26, 2016, 06:56:09 AM
And an interesting anaylitical article:

Quote
The Three Souls of Podemos

Five days ago, the negotiators of Podemos and PSOE gathered for the first time, accompanied by representatives from similar ideological forces. The base document for the negotiations presented by Podemos is quite the peculiar political object. The document may reveal, as nothing else can, what is essential to understand the party’s actions since December 20th. Podemos can be considered a kind of coalition with three interests whose hierarchy is not clear: the desire to make new policies (from their point of view) different from those implemented in recent times; their intention to “storm the heavens”, becoming the key formation in a government of “change” (definitively, on the left of the ideological spectrum); and the aspiration to give voice to “pluri-nationalism” in Spain, particularly (but not solely) offering a solution to the Catalan question, in the form of a referendum of self-determination. The problem for Podemos, of course, is that these objectives are not necessarily in step with each other. Conversely, they can even be in conflict.

In the list of specific measures proposed by Podemos, there are many items in which an agreement does seems possible, not only with PSOE, but also C’s (through abstention of one or the other). Some of this common ground has already been discussed in media as well as by Socialists in their own response document. In their reply, there are proposals not explicitly stated, though previously recognized by PSOE which I list here (though incomplete): employ a mechanism to fight against poverty, or a guaranteed fixed income; combat the workforce gender gap through paternity leave, amongst others; changing the electoral laws to create more proportionality in the system; implement reforms in education and healthcare, although they would have to discuss the expense involved (see more below); and finally, in the section dealing with detailed corruption reforms, almost all seem perfectly acceptable for the other partners involved: more independent government agencies (AAPP in Spanish), protections for whistleblowers, more clearly defined conflicts of interest.

Other specific aspects would require considerably more intense negotiations, possibly becoming unachievable. Initially though, these could be subject to debate. The deferment of the deficit limit and the growth of public spending is meaningful. The parties involved will have to discuss the pace and realm where the spending would take place, but this would be a negotiation of limits and sources (particularly the eventual tax increase, or the optimistic fiscal calculations of Podemos), and not of the baseline. The related questions with labor regulations, most importantly concerning indefinite contracts, could also create a considerable hurdle. But there would be room for agreement in things like paternity leave, regularized overtime, restricting temporary employment, and minimizing contract fraud.

The set of concrete measures, ultimately, constitutes a logical base of negotiation for a party interested in reforming governmental policies. However, for the aspirations of Podemos (and their partners) this is seemingly insufficient in both the document and the Iglesias’s own negotiating strategy, which includes demands in two structural areas.

The much discussed call for a “super vice-presidency” with broadened powers —as well as the highly detailed definition of each Ministry and the requirement to choose by consensus the 70-plus senior officials— responds to an explicit aim of taking up positions inside institutions, for a party that currently feels outside of them. This can be read as an aspiration (and for Podemos, the window of opportunity) to occupy that space. In any case, it responds to an attack strategy that places any of the partners (that at the same time are potential victims) in an impossible position. Notably, this enters into a partial conflict with some of the specifically elaborated proposals in the section on corruption, to the extent that the plan to subject judges and attorneys to political directives has been corrected in subsequent versions of Podemos’ proposed document. The lesson is clear: weakening those who can facilitate the passing of some (if not all) of your preferred policies is strenuously difficult combination.

Nevertheless, the demand for a nonbinding referendum of auto-determination in Catalonia through Article 92 of the Constitution is possibly the most hotly debated “red line”. It is worth noting who exactly supports this proposal. If it implies a partial (and not a national) plebiscite, PSOE, and obviously C’s and PP, are opposed. At the same time, if it remains nonbinding and without legal guaranteed, the independentists will not be seduced. The proposal, as it stands, lingers in a political no man’s land, without seeming to build any bridges between the two opposing camps in Madrid and Barcelona. Thus, its utility to forge a left-wing government that moves forward with the array of aforementioned policies is scant, if not counterproductive. In contrast, the platform created by BCN En Comú could yield considerable electoral results, in the short and medium term.

The contradictions regarding pluri-nationalism go beyond this, since Podemos’ other two partners have their own agenda that, although pointing towards decentralization, show little to no interest in a referendum. On the contrary, Compromís is already governing in Valencia with PSPV-PSOE, and En Marea and PSdG seem poised to join forces as the alternative to PPdG in the Galician elections at the end of the year. Compromís already withdrew from the shared platform of Podemos, and En Marea is considering maintaining negotiations with PSOE by themselves. Although those wanting to “storm the heavens” and En Comú Podem are seemingly in lockstep, the Galicians and Valencians are on a different path, one aimed at finding common ground with natural partners from their autonomous communities, and therefore similar in securing specific changes.

If the pro-referendum and “revolutionary” incentives go in one direction, and the “gradualist” Catalans and Galicians go in another, does this mean there are two fronts in Podemos and its orbit? Not necessarily, since there will be many members of the party with three souls (plurinationalism, wealth redistribution, and change of actor) each with a varying degree of importance. Perhaps this is not as much of a fight between people as it is a internal conflict of preferences. The incompatibility exists, though, and it will manifest itself more evidently through PSOE’s plan— that Pablo Simon explains so well—which is based on exploiting these contradictions, if carried out as they hope. If not, their rival/potential partner fails in a way that is obvious to all: the gradualism will be unnecessary and be substituted by the “revolution” which could reach everywhere else. Unless Pedro Sanchez is questioned and an internal crisis opens, it is improbable that PSOE collapses so immediately. Therefore it seems difficult, if not altogether impossible, that Iglesias and company achieve everything at the same time: storm the heavens, reform concrete policies, Catalan self-determination, and a left-wing government with a plurinational balance. As my mom always told me when I was young, even though it infuriated me tremendously each time: you can’t always get what you want.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 02, 2016, 05:18:11 AM
Investiture debate: Pedro Sánchez calls for support to pull Spain out of current political impasse

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/01/inenglish/1456854478_073704.html

Quote
Socialist Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez made his much-anticipated investiture speech in the Spanish Congress on Tuesday afternoon, offering “a government of change and of dialogue” that would overcome the current political impasse, and that, above all, would rectify the consequences of four years of Popular Party (PP) government.

During his nearly 90-minute address to the deputies in Spain’s lower house, the politician appealed for the support he will need from other parties if he is to be voted in as prime minister this week. The December 20 general election was won by the incumbent PP, but the party fell well short of the seats needed for a majority. Sánchez, who was invited to form a government by King Felipe VI, has closed a deal with emerging center-right group Ciudadanos, but will still need the support or abstention of other parties if his bid to lead Spain is to be successful (...)

Previously Podemos rejected an offer from PSOE:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/29/inenglish/1456762558_548387.html

Quote
The leader of left-wing anti-austerity group Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, made it clear on Monday that his party would not be considering the latest offer from the Socialist Party (PSOE) secretary general, Pedro Sánchez, in a bid to win support for his investiture as prime minister.

“The PSOE has sent us a number of documents that are merely copied and pasted from their agreement with Ciudadanos, hiding the most shameful measures,” Iglesias wrote on his Twitter account. “This is not serious.”(...)

Right now investiture session continues with the replies from the rest of parties to yesterday's speech.

Live coverage (Spanish)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/01/media/1456827577_344664.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 02, 2016, 06:04:15 AM
What are the odds of a new election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on March 02, 2016, 06:26:32 AM
What are the odds of a new election?

My personal opinion is 50:50.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 02, 2016, 08:33:10 AM

That's too optimistic, IMO. I wouldn't suffer another campaign, but I can't see how the different parties are going to prevent it. My bet os 80:20, just to  give some chance to Sánchez.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 02, 2016, 08:48:28 AM
If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on March 02, 2016, 11:11:55 AM
If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.
Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 02, 2016, 03:09:22 PM
Pedro Sánchez loses first investiture vote.

Yes 130, No 219, Abstain 1

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/02/inenglish/1456941827_019897.html

This morning Mariano Rajoy and Pablo Iglesias launched harsh attacks on the socialist candidate

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/02/inenglish/1456919623_028253.html

Quote
Tuesday saw the first debate of this week’s investiture session in Congress, at which Socialist Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez, who has been invited by Spain’s King Felipe to try to form a government, appealed to his rival political parties to support his bid to become prime minister. His 90-minute speech was the only one heard during the afternoon session, but on Wednesday morning it was the turn of the leaders of other parties to offer their responses.

Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose Popular Party won most votes at the inconclusive December 20 general election, but fell short of a majority, was the first to take the stand in Congress, followed by Pablo Iglesias, the head of the anti-austerity left-wing group Podemos.

Rajoy ridiculed his opponent and his calls for a “government of change,” while Iglesias called Sánchez “miserable” at one point

Both politicians expressed their huge distance from the stance of Sánchez, who last week reached a deal with center-right group Ciudadanos to try to form a minority government. Rajoy ridiculed his opponent and his calls for a “government of change,” while Iglesias called Sánchez “miserable” at one point. They both did their best to discredit their opponent throughout.

Meanwhile, the leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, appealed for dialogue, cross-party pacts and accord. He accused the PP and Podemos of trying to derail “an agreement that represents nine million [Spanish voters].”

The PP leader described the bid for power by the Socialists, who reaped one of their worst election results ever at the December polls, as a “farce.” Iglesias, meanwhile, described the prime ministerial hopeful as someone who had “surrendered to the oligarchs and the powers that be.”

The debate, which will continue throughout Wednesday, is likely to see Sánchez lose the first investiture vote scheduled for later today. As things stand, he is also unlikely to win a second vote on Friday, at which he needs a simple majority to be successful. Right now he can only count on the 90 votes from the PSOE and 40 from Ciudadanos, out of a total of 350.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on March 02, 2016, 03:16:46 PM
Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 02, 2016, 03:29:46 PM
If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.
Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

I would rather like a PSOE-Podemos-IU joint list to the fycking Senate. Given that Spanish Senate is irrelevant, an obstacle to reforms, a thorn in the side of all of us, etcetera... why lefties can't put aside their party differences in order to not give away majority to PP? Sadly, I haven't an answer for this question. There is a precedent in Catalonia, where lefitst parties (PSC, PSUC/ICV and sometimes ERC, I believe) used to run in a joint list for the Upper House called Entesa. However, in the last election En Comú Podem and PSC ran their own lists.

Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?

From now on Rajoy and Sánchez (or whoever is commissioned by King Felipe) have exactly two months to reach an agreement with other parties and pass another investiture session. In case nobody is elected  until May 2, a new election will be triggered on June 26.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2016, 06:41:28 PM
Italy 2013, I tell you...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on March 03, 2016, 04:43:16 AM
I's interesting how the duet Errejón-Iglesias operates. Iglesias is generally nasty and yesterday he essentially gave an electoral campaign speech going back to 40 years ago and then telling the PSOE they - and their iconic Felipe González - are the party of the 'cal viva' (reference to the GAL) to Errejón face of utter dismay at the reference. In any case, that was an extremely harsh tone and may have burnt any bridges or thrown the PSOE to the PP, which is not necessarily something Podemos may dislike.

In any case, despite all their pretension, reaching a left-wing agreement was always a difficult thing, after all, it requires a certain degree of consensus in an impossible topic, the Catalan referendum, at best you can have a dissimulated one through a constitutional referendum on a federal structure. But that's unacceptable to ERC and CDC (though maybe not for Homs, but that's always the double game of CiU in Madrid and Barcelona). But basically the issue here is Podemos.  IU doesn't want elections, Compromís and PSOE more or less have a finished deal regarding improved financing for Valencia (understandably since they are the most affected region by the current system of regional financing) and some stuff about Benidorm (?) and En Mare will need the PSdG's support soon.

Some kind of PSOE-C's-Podemos tripartite government would be best, but probably unreachable. In any case, Sánchez investiture has changed the frame of political discourse by enjoying the capacity of displaying his message in the tribune, and I think that will favour him and probably Rajoy should have accepted the King's invitation to form a government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 03, 2016, 01:08:19 PM
I's interesting how the duet Errejón-Iglesias operates. Iglesias is generally nasty and yesterday he essentially gave an electoral campaign speech going back to 40 years ago and then telling the PSOE they - and their iconic Felipe González - are the party of the 'cal viva' (reference to the GAL) to Errejón face of utter dismay at the reference. In any case, that was an extremely harsh tone and may have burnt any bridges or thrown the PSOE to the PP, which is not necessarily something Podemos may dislike.

It's possible that reference to the GAL (an obscure counter-terrorist group acting in the 80s) and the quicklime ("cal viva") used to cover the bodies of alleged terrorists Lasa and Zabala was the product of heating. Apparently PSOE backbenchers were booing Pablo Iglesias while he was speaking and that enervated him. Then he reacted saying that Felipe González (former PM is a fierce enemy of Podemos and has said aubergines want to finish democracy and that Iglesias = Lenin 3.0) has quicklime in his hands. Significantly, Podemos number two Íñigo Errejón raised his eyebrows.

On the GAL:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAL_(paramilitary_group)

Killing of Lasa and Zabala

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Lasa_and_Zabala

Enric Juliana says that quicklime will erode the impossible relationship between PSOE and Podemos, for the reasons explained in the article below (Spanish)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160303/40158175629/llamamiento-a-la-rebelion.html

Quote
This lime will just erode the impossible relationship between PSOE and Podemos. The Socialist Party works with family codes. PSOE is memory. A frontal assault to the time of Felipè Gonzalez is a declaration of war. The Socialists perceive Podemos as their principal adversary. And vice versa. This dialectics does not have arrangement and only presents two exits: elections in June to return to check the relation of forces, or PP-PSOE-C's agreement without Rajoy at the front. This it will be the tour of next sixty days, which can end up by being an absurd time.


It's not clear that a new election is going to be a good thing for Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 03, 2016, 02:37:48 PM
If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.
Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

I would rather like a PSOE-Podemos-IU joint list to the fycking Senate. Given that Spanish Senate is irrelevant, an obstacle to reforms, a thorn in the side of all of us, etcetera... why lefties can't put aside their party differences in order to not give away majority to PP? Sadly, I haven't an answer for this question. There is a precedent in Catalonia, where lefitst parties (PSC, PSUC/ICV and sometimes ERC, I believe) used to run in a joint list for the Upper House called Entesa. However, in the last election En Comú Podem and PSC ran their own lists.

How about a common Senate list called "Abolish the Senate"? That could be pretty popular amongst politician weary Spaniards.

Also I don't want Catalonia to break away (it seems the primary argument is that Catalans are angry about "layabout Extramadurans") but PSOE-C's-PP are being really stupid about the whole affair. It's clear a (small) majority of Catalans would vote in a referednum "No" as shown by the, err, election that was framed as a de facto indyref by ERC/CiU (until they lost, and claimed that the gerrymandered seat count was enough to be a mandate). But the STRONK STATE stubbornness of the Madrid parties means the Catalan government can just carry on with its mandateless roadmap towards independence and even posture as (relatively) organised compared to Madrid.  Madness!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 03, 2016, 03:30:08 PM
What happens now?

Podemos and PP will seek new talks with PSOE in case tomorrow's vote fails (take it for granted)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/03/inenglish/1457016587_480211.html

Quote
The conservative Popular Party (PP) and emerging anti-austerity group Podemos plan on contacting the Socialist Party (PSOE) on Saturday in a bid to restart negotiations to form a government, should, as is expected, Socialist chief and prime ministerial hopeful Pedro Sánchez fails tomorrow at a second investiture vote.

Sánchez, who had been invited by Spain’s King Felipe VI to try to form a government, lacked the votes needed at Wednesday’s first round of voting, only securing the support of his 90 deputies in Congress and 40 from center-right group Ciudadanos. The two parties reached a deal last week to try to form a minority government, but have been unable to convince any other group to come on board. With 130 yes votes, the PSOE chief was well short of the 176 he needed for a majority, with 219 votes in total against him and one abstention.

f he loses again at tomorrow’s vote, at which a simple majority – more yes votes than no – would see him made prime minister, the parties will have two months to reach a new deal. If they fail, new elections will have to be held, most likely in June.

In the case of the PP, acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will get in touch with Sánchez after tomorrow’s vote, in a bid to try to secure, in the words of PP general secretary María Dolores de Cospedal, a stable government for Spain. She explained in a TV interview on Thursday that Rajoy would seek to convince Sánchez that the best course of action was a “grand coalition” between the PP, the Socialist Party and Ciudadanos.

Meanwhile, the leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, is well aware that his deal with the Socialists will come to nothing at tomorrow’s vote if the PP does not abstain. But on Thursday it emerged that Ciudadanos was not holding fresh talks with the PP ahead of tomorrow’s vote. Rajoy is reported to have refused to receive Rivera last week, given that he knew that he was going to request his party’s abstention to make way for a Sánchez-led government – something he is unwilling to do.

“I do not agree with Rajoy’s way of leadership, if he is leading at all,” Rivera said in a radio interview after Wednesday’s debate. “He has broken all bridges. […] Rajoy has said no to everyone. They are isolating themselves. When [Rajoy] refused [the king’s invitation to form a government], he signed his own death sentence. After that you can’t complain if others try to do so. We can’t head toward a new era with a passive attitude.”

While the PSOE-C's agreement (or the Operation 'Big Centre', as Enric Juliana calls it) has failed in the ongoing investiture vote, there are consistent rumours pointing that IBEX 35 listed companies liked it. I think it's clear that Albert Rivera seeks a Grand Coalition agreement without Mariano Rajoy (C's leader called PP MPs to rebel against acting PM in yesterday's speech).

Mariano Rajoy was very harsh and arrogant in his speech because he knows that many people considers him a political corpse, a man from another era. He sought to galvanize his own ranks as well. Many people in PP is pretty confused with current events and  is resented with the key role enjoyed by the beleaguered Pedro Sánchez, once Rajoy decided not attempting investiture.

PNV parliamentary spokesman pointed the reasons why PSOE-C's agreement was condemned to fail to convince leftist groups. Basically the agreement went into excesive detail, leaving little room to negotiate with Podemos, IU and Compromís. Above all, the agreement's staging was very solemn ("it's an historic day", etcetera). Such solemnity was a condition imposed by Rivera, who has stated clearly that his project is not compatible with that of Podemos and sought PP's abstention unsucessfully in this investiture vote.

As for Podemos and the other leftist parties:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/03/inenglish/1456991257_812609.html

Quote
Assuming the result is the same as Wednesday, from Monday onward Iglesias and Podemos will be able to resume negotiations. They will have a two-month period to reach a deal before new elections have to be called. While it is still unclear as to whether King Felipe VI will invite Sánchez to try and form a government once more, it is in all the parties’ interest to show willing, and at least try and reach a deal.

After Wednesday’s marathon session, the Podemos leader called on all the forces across the leftist spectrum to sit down and negotiate from a position of “equality and joint responsibility.” The emerging political force is determined to form a “government of progress” with representatives from the PSOE, Podemos, United Left and Compromís. “From Friday,” Iglesias told reporters, “it would be good news to hear that all of the forces for a progressive coalition government have met.” In his opinion, the failed attempt of Sánchez in the first vote shows that his party’s “deal with Ciudadanos does not make for a government.”

Sánchez, meanwhile, insisted on Wednesday that a deal between all of the leftist parties in Congress is not sufficient to create an alternative government to that of the Popular Party’s acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. That was why he sought a cross-party deal, between the left and right, although in the end he was only able to seal a deal with Ciudadanos.

However, relations between PSOE and Podemos might well have broken down after yesterday's dogfight.

This morning Madrid Mayoress Manuela Carmena appealed for a deal between leftist parties.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 03, 2016, 03:32:13 PM

This sums it up pretty well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 05, 2016, 03:20:55 AM
Pedro Sánchez loses second investiture vote. Two months left to reach a new agreement or holding fresh elections in June.

Yes 131, No 219

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/04/inenglish/1457113642_086717.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 07, 2016, 05:48:46 AM
The deal between PSOE and Ciudadanos remains in effect. Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera announced they intend to attend together meetings with other party leaders, with the deal signed by their respective parties as a basis for negotiations. Mariano Rajoy dislikes that and has said he wants to call Pedro Sánchez alone for a first meeting to retake initiative after the latter's failed investiture attempt.

War of nerves between PSOE and Podemos. Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias assures he's not going to "play the PSOE's charade" and rejects joint negotiations with reds and oranges.  In a previous interview with El País, Pedro Sánchez stated that he ignores the reason of Iglesias' "hatred" of PSOE in allusion to their clash in past week debate at the Congress of Deputies. Now PSOE is increasing pressure on Podemos; spokesperson Antonio Hernando warns that socialists could break deals with Podemos in local councils:

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/03/06/actualidad/1457288305_298961.html

Quote
The Socialist Party (PSOE) has said that it will be “very demanding” when it comes to the continuation of its relationship with emerging anti-austerity group Podemos in local councils, after the latter party refused on two occasions last week to support the Socialists’ bid to form a government in Spain’s Congress (...)

The PSOE will now put pressure on Podemos in municipalities such as Madrid, Barcelona, Zaragoza, A Coruña, Santiago, Ferrol and Cádiz, among other places, where it reached deals with the left-wing group after the local elections of May 2015. The two parties united in many cases in order to keep the PP from power, but now these deals are under threat given Podemos’s failure to support the PSOE in Congress.

Antonio Hernando, the PSOE spokesperson, made clear the party’s stance last Thursday, in the midst of the investiture debate. “We gave them our support in exchange for nothing at all, without any red lines,” he told reporters.

“We are going to be very demanding when it comes to the management of councils where Podemos is backed by the PSOE,” said high-placed Socialist sources. When asked if this was a threat or a warning, they replied that it was a “warning” but a very serious one (...)

King Feiipe is not going to start another round of consultations with parliamenrary parties, until the Speaker of the Congress of Deputies tells him that one of the possible candidates has garnered enough support to pass the investiture. In this phase the king is not bound to commission anybody. In case no candidate is able to form a government within two months, the king will be compelled to dissolve the Cortes and call a fresh general election.

The best summary of events so far in La Vanguardia (Spanish)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160306/40232248623/laberinto-espanol-asunto-europeo.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on March 07, 2016, 06:36:24 AM

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 07, 2016, 07:28:16 AM

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this point, but I beg to differ. There is a world of differences between the inarticulate 5 Stelle Movement and the Spanish purple party, which certainly has to solve internal contradictions and strengthen its territorial structure.

As for the political situation, even though there are some similarities there is an important difference between the Spanish and Italian political systems that the article I linked before addresses. While in Italy there exists a 'perfect bicameralism' and the Prime Minister is relatively weak, in Spain is different. Here the Congress of Deputies has precedence over the Senate and the PM has nearly presidential powers. Unlike in Italy, in Spain the PM can dissolve the parliament and the only way to take power from him or her is through a 'constructive' motion of censure with an alternative candidate. In short, it's much more difficult to oust a PM in Spain than in Italy once he or she takes office.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on March 10, 2016, 12:17:33 PM

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this point, but I beg to differ. There is a world of differences between the inarticulate 5 Stelle Movement and the Spanish purple party, which certainly has to solve internal contradictions and strengthen its territorial structure.

Their hatred towards the main centre-left party (which should be its natural,and perhaps only,ally) and pretending to be for "a new kind of politics" while acting in a purely tactical way reminds me of M5S.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 11, 2016, 07:00:01 AM

The Podemos-M5S comparison seems to hold quite well,as of now.

I'm far from being a Pablo Iglesias fan at this point, but I beg to differ. There is a world of differences between the inarticulate 5 Stelle Movement and the Spanish purple party, which certainly has to solve internal contradictions and strengthen its territorial structure.

Their hatred towards the main centre-left party (which should be its natural,and perhaps only,ally) and pretending to be for "a new kind of politics" while acting in a purely tactical way reminds me of M5S.

That hatred is mutual, in any case. There is a part of PSOE fiercely opposed to approaching Podemos, which includes the party's 'old senate' led by former PM Felipe González and regional leaders like Andalusia premier Susana Díaz. The intelligentsia and the media linked to PSOE have a deep distrust of the insurgent party. Pedro Sánchez is bounded by the resolution of the PSOE's Federal Committee, which in practice prevents him from reaching a substantial agreement with Podemos. Extended thinking in PSOE is that programmatic agreements with Podemos are dangerous for the party. Only the PSOE's left wing is openly favourable to form a coalition government with Podemos, IU and Compromís. On the other hand, the deal between PSOE and the centre-right Ciudadanos is motivated by tactical needs. Pedro Sánchez seeks to become stronger in his own party, as well to neutralise Podemos. Keep in mind that election results placed PSOE and Podemos very close to one another: there is an ongoing battle for the hegemony of the Spanish left.

As for Podemos, attitudes towards PSOE are not homogeneous. The left wing of the party is openly advocating for new elections. The party's ruling wing seems to be divided, more in the forms than in the substance, between supporters of Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón. The latter represents a 'possibilistic' (some say 'socialdemocratic') faction more favourable to approaching PSOE, which maybe regrets Pablo Iglesas' "maximalism" and "aggressiveness". Such differences appear to be strategical, not ideological.

On the other hand, comparisons between Podemos and MS5 are not adequate beyond the ambiguous characterisation of 'protest party', a certain 'populist gene' and the use of social networks. Podemos was founded by a core of political scientists with a Marxist background whom were in the IU's environs, while the Beppe Grillo's movement is antipolitical. However, Podemos is not a Communist or a Marxist party. It's more an experiment or an 'unidentified object', the amalgamation of heterogeneous factions and people whom never felt represented by the 'institutional left'.

The rivalry between PSOE and Podemos may be more related to the old rivalry between socialist and communist parties in Western Europe, although there is not an exact parallel because Podemos is not the PCE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 13, 2016, 07:32:32 AM
Polls.

Celeste-Tel

PP 28.3%, PSOE 22.4%, Podemos 19.4%, C's 15.6%, IU-UP 4.6%, ERC 2.5%, DL 1.9%, EAJ-PNV 1.1%

GESOP

PP 26.4%, PSOE 21.9%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 17.8%, IU-UP 5.9%, ERC 2.4%, DL 1.5%, Others 6%

Invymark

PP 28.5%, Podemos 21.5%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 14.3%, IU-UP 4.3%, Others 10.6%

Metroscopia

PP 26%, PSOE 23.1%, C's 19.5%, Podemos 16.8%, IU-UP 5.4%, Others 9.2%

Sondaxe

PP 28.6%, PSOE 22%, Podemos 19.1%, C's 15.6%, IU-UP 4.2%, ERC 2.5%, DL 2.1%, EAJ-PNV 1.2%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 13, 2016, 07:52:31 AM
Are there crosstabs in these polls? I assume that the two new parties are supported by the young, and PPSOE by the elderly?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2016, 10:26:17 AM
Are there crosstabs in these polls? I assume that the two new parties are supported by the young, and PPSOE by the elderly?

Some pollsters use to release the full crosstabs, but I haven't found for these yet. Indeed, there's a clear generational gap consistently recorded by polls. Support for new parties is very strong among the young and decreases sharply in the eldest segment of the electorate (above 45 years). In contrast PP has a clear advantage in the segment above 60 years, while it's the 4th party among the aged between 18 and 25 years. Also, vote for new parties is predominantly urban. PSOE has a clear problem with the urban vote, as evidenced in the last general election. The main base of support for PSOE lies in small and midsized towns and is prevalently located in the south of Spain. 

According to the GESOP poll released by El Periódico, main vote transfers from December 20 elections would be: 10% from PP to C's, 10% from PSOE to C's and 10% from Podemos to IU.

Preferred coalitions (GESOP)

()

Support for a PP-PSOE-C's coalition is stronger among the elderly and is the preferred option in all regions but Catalonia and the Basque Country. The left block is preferred by the younger.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2016, 11:11:58 AM
El País: "Socialists confident divisions in Podemos will deliver abstention"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/14/inenglish/1457945418_530187.html

Quote
(...)]If no progress is made in the coming weeks, Spain will face a fresh election in late June. But with polls showing that Podemos would fare worse, Socialist leaders are hoping that Iglesias will try to avoid a new ballot, and accept to abstain in order to let Sánchez govern while retaining his own current congressional muscle.

Recent conflicts within Podemos’s federal leadership, combined with a chance that regional groups that ran with Podemos in December would run independently in a fresh election, are revealing a new weakness in a party where there is a growing rift between supporters of leader Pablo Iglesias and adherents of his number two official, Íñigo Errejón.

Also, several leading pro-Podemos figures have recently spoken up regarding the convenience of getting closer to the Socialists. Madrid Mayor Manuela Carmena, whose Ahora Madrid alliance includes Podemos, has talked about a hypothetical investiture deal between the PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos in order to eject the PP from power.

Also, Podemos is facing some problems in certain regional organizations. Recently 1/3 of the Madrid regional executive (apparently aligned with Íñigo Errejón) resigned because of differences with Luis Alegre, the regional secretary general and reportedly aligned with Pablo Iglesias. Regional organisations in Catalonia and Galicia are facing a crisis. In both regions, the regional alliances En Comú Podem (Catalonia) and En Marea (Galicia) would become eventually in separate parties in a process driven by Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau and the Galician nationalist leader Xose Manuel Beiras.

It's clear that Podemos is facing a growth crisis, which is normal in a new party that has emerged so fast. The management of regional alliances is quite complicated as well. However, I'd be cautious about the alleged rift between supporters of Iglesias and Errejón. Both appear to have tactical differences, but they have a long time friendship that can prevent a schism in the organization.

According to this report from El Diario (Spanish): "There are supporters of Iglesias and Errejón. But not only. There are other factions, groups, personal and political affinities".

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/familias-discursos-organizativos-Podemos-investidura_0_492751279.html

In other news, Pedro Sánchez will meet with Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont. Ciudadanos threats to drop alliance with Socialists if they negotiate a referendum:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/14/inenglish/1457966521_325425.html

Quote
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez is scheduled to meet Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont on Tuesday in what will constitute the first face-to-face encounter between Catalan nationalists and a mainstream Spanish party leader since Puigdemont took office in January.

Socialist sources say Sánchez will not ask for Puigdemont’s support, but simply seek to convince him to drop plans to secede from Spain.

But just in case, Ciudadanos – which began life as Ciutadans, a Catalan party strongly opposed to regional independence – is reminding Sánchez that any leniency towards secessionist views will automatically sever the ties between their two parties (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 17, 2016, 12:12:53 PM
Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias dismisses top party official

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/16/inenglish/1458116912_366232.html

Quote
In a surprise move, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias fired a top aide late on Tuesday, accusing him of “deficient management whose consequences have seriously hurt the party.”

Sergio Pascual, the anti-austerity party’s organization secretary until last night, was told that he should have done a better job of dealing with the recent crisis in Madrid, where 10 party officials resigned in protest over their superior’s leadership style.

Those resignations underscored a growing division between supporters of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and backers of his right-hand man, Iñigo Errejón. The outgoing officials in Madrid were all behind Errejón – as was Sergio Pascual, the abruptly dismissed organization secretary.

The unprecedented move sends out the message that the leadership will not tolerate an internal rebellion within the two-year-old party, which came in third in the Spanish general election on December 20 (...)

“The latest events demonstrate a deficient management whose consequences have seriously hurt Podemos at such a delicate moment as the negotiation process to create a government of change,” reads the statement released at around 11.30pm on Tuesday, after the decision to remove Sergio Pascual from his management post.

Pascual’s response on Twitter was swift. “Two years working myself to the bone building organization and popular participation. I remain committed to the project of majorities for change.”

Just hours earlier, top leader Pablo Iglesias had sent a letter to party members with a clear message contradicting reports of internal strife within Podemos.

“In Podemos, there are not, nor must there ever be, currents or factions competing for apparatus and resource control,” said the letter. “The Madrid resignations took place at the worst possible time and provided fodder for the story that supporters of the status quo like to tell. We must not commit a mistake of this kind again, and accountability must be demanded.”

The dismissal of Sergio Pascual also means that the secretary general’s office is taking over his duties until a new appointment is made. This gives the top leader additional power over territorial decisions precisely at a time when Podemos is facing regional divisions in Catalonia, Galicia, the Basque Country, La Rioja and Cantabria.

With the Socialist Party and Podemos now apparently willing to resume talks following a period of confrontation, Iglesias is keen to show that his party is a united group.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2016, 01:04:23 PM
Tell me again about how Podemos is so different from M5S. :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 17, 2016, 03:29:40 PM
Tell me again about how Podemos is so different from M5S. :P

Right now I think that Pablo Iglesias is a cross between Lenin and a Rock Star. Number Two Íñigo Errejón would be playing the role of Enrico Berlinguer in Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 18, 2016, 01:24:00 AM
a cross between Lenin and a Rock Star.

That wouldn't be a too far-fetched way to describe Grillo (though with the number of purges he's conducted by now he's more of a Stalin than a Lenin).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 18, 2016, 08:09:58 AM
"Podemos second-in-command readying move to win control of party"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/18/inenglish/1458290320_578800.html

Quote
Silence can be more meaningful than words. Íñigo Errejón, the number two official in Podemos, has been absent from the public arena this week as he mulls his response to party leader Pablo Iglesias’s sudden dismissal of a top aide (...)

Errejón followers reportedly suggested some kind of quick response to organization secretary Sergio Pascual’s dismissal on Tuesday. Ultimately, prudence prevailed and it was decided that the situation should not turn into a personal confrontation.

But internal critics of Iglesias’s leadership say Pascual’s dismissal was reminiscent of the old-school left, with its vertical and hierarchical structure. Both of Iglesias’s two top aides, Rafael Mayoral and Irene Montero, cut their teeth in the Spanish Communist Party (PCE).

The errejonistas want to ensure that Podemos does not turn into “some sort of PCE 2.0,” in the words of one deputy (...)

Meanwhile, another battle is going on within Podemos. Errejonistas are in favor of reaching a deal with the Socialist Party and forming a government in the wake of the inconclusive December 20 election.

But it is unclear whether Iglesias wants to do the same or to just keep raising his demands so that Spain will be forced to hold a fresh election in late June.

Errejón feels that the time has come for Podemos to decide what it wants to be: a hegemonic party or a left-wing minority.

“We believe that in order to avoid the risk of becoming a classic organization relegated to the left fringes of the political playing board, we need to understand that we cannot build a people project exclusively with those who have been hardest hit by the crisis,” reads a paper published by the Podemos foundation, Instituto 25-M.

The debate over Podemos’s future has begun, but the real battle will start on the first weekend in April, when Iglesias is due to convene a citizen council that will suggest a replacement for Sergio Pascual.

Power game inside Podemos does not work like a match between the Iglesias and the Errejón teams, says El Diario. There are four dividing lines or "dimensions" in the party:  a) reform vs rupture, b) transversality vs left-wing discourse, c) confluences vs single party and d) personal relationships.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/ejes-4D-visualizar-mejor-Podemos_0_495550620.html

Meanwhile, Pedro Sánchez asked Tsipras for help

Quote
Spanish Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez addressed a meeting of European socialists and social-democrats on Thursday, and delivered the message that Spain, too, could get a progressive government – if only Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias would allow it.

Sánchez specifically turned to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who is ideologically close to Iglesias, and told him that the latter’s attitude is preventing “a government of change” in Spain.

... Greek PM answered that's outside his competence. Reportedly he advised the PSOE leader: "you have nothing to do with Ciudadanos; go with Podemos"

Conflict between Congress and the Rajoy's caretaker government.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/18/inenglish/1458294596_773957.html

Quote
As expected, when the Spanish Congress’s Defense Committee met on Thursday, the acting Defense Minister Pedro Morenés did not show up.

It was the first time that a member of government had deliberately ignored a parliamentary request to offer public explanations about his work.

The caretaker government of the Popular Party (PP) feels that it is under no obligation to submit to oversight by the new Congress that emerged from the inconclusive general election held on December 20.


The conservatives have already said that never in constitutional history had question time taken place in Congress before a new prime minister had taken his oath of office. And nearly three months after Spaniards went to the polls, there is still no clear candidate to hold that position.

Now, Congress will likely take the confrontation to the Constitutional Court, arguing that the executive branch is preventing the Legislature from doing its job properly, as oversight of government action is listed among its duties.

The Defense Committee wanted Morenés to explain his February trip to a NATO summit that made decisions regarding the fleet in the Indian Ocean. His absence on Thursday was variously described by other parties as “fraud,” “rebellion by someone who keeps talking about the law,” a “loss of common sense” and “a democratic abnormality.”

The Socialist Party has announced that it will push to take the issue to the Constitutional Court – a threat first issued earlier this week by House Speaker Patxi López (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 18, 2016, 02:00:32 PM
Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias picks Pablo Echenique to replace the dismissed Sergio Pascual as organization secretary. Echenique is the regional secretary in Aragon and a kind of a moral authority in Podemos.

Mariano Rajoy refuses to appear in Congress on the EU-Turkey deal

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/18/inenglish/1458321906_310562.html

Quote
The European Union and Turkey on Friday signed a controversial agreement under which migrants and refugees who arrive on Greek shores can be immediately sent back to the neighboring country. In exchange, Turkish citizens will, from July onward, not need a visa to travel to Europe.

After nearly two uninterrupted days of negotiations, the 28 EU member states – Spain among them – agreed the deal with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. But the terms have raised alarms among a number of collectives, including the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).

In Spain, the deal has raised the ire of opposition parties, and the situation is complicated further by the fact that an acting government is in place in the wake of inconclusive December elections, and the failure of parties to reach a coalition deal since.

What’s more, acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is refusing to appear in Congress to convey the result of the negotiations, despite the fact that his presence at the negotiations marks the first time that a head of the Spanish executive has attended such a summit without a clear mandate from parliament.

While he is yet to completely rule out such an appearance in Congress, Rajoy on Friday argued that he would have to consult with the members of his caretaker government before doing so.

“The parliament is a caretaker one [sic],” said Rajoy, “and there is no precedent from 1977 [the return of democracy to Spain] that a caretaker parliament [sic] controls a government.” In reality, it is the government that is acting, given that parliament has its full powers.

For Rajoy, there is no need for the government to inform Congress about the deal, given that “the members of parliament know full well what they have approved and they know very well what will be approved here.”

Apart from his own Popular Party (PP), all other congressional groups – 227 deputies out of a total of 350 – felt that the European Union’s deal with Turkey to expel refugees was illegal, with Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez last week calling it “immoral.”

Basque Country poll (Euskobarometro)

EAJ-PNV 29.3% (22-23 seats)

Podemos 25.2% (19-21)

EHBildu 16.3% (13)

PSE-EE 12.2% (9)

PP 9.4% (8-9)

C's 3.6% (1-3)

Sample: 600 (face-to-face) Fieldwork: Jan 19 to 31

http://estaticos.elmundo.es/documentos/2016/03/18/euskobarometro.pdf


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 19, 2016, 12:00:07 PM
CEO poll for Catalonia

Parliament of Catalonia (in brackets 2015 election)

JxSí 35,8% (39,6%), Catalunya Sí Que es Pot 17.9% (8.9%), C's 16.7% (17.9%), PSC 12.2% (12.7%), CUP 7.5% (8.2%), PP 7% (8.5%)

Seats: JxSí 56-58 (62), CSP 21-23 (11), C's 22-23 (25), PSC 13-14 (16), CUP 9-11 (10), PP 9-10 (11)

General Election (Congress of Deputies)

En Comú Podem 25.5% (24.7%), ERC 19.2% (16%), PSC 15.2% (15.7%), C's 14.5% (13%), DiL 12.4% (15.1%), PP 10% (11.1%)

Seats: ECP 12 (12), ERC 10-11 (9), PSC 7 ( 8 ), C's 7 (5), DiL 6-7 ( 8 ), PP 4 (5)

Do you believe Catalonia should be...

... a region of Spain 4.1%

... an autonomous community of Spain (status quo) 25.1%

... a state in a federal Spain 26.3%

... an independent state 38.5%

And more precisely: do you want Catalonia to become an independent state?

Yes 45.3%, No 45.5%, does not know 7.1%, does not answer 2.1%

You can find crosstabs and an abstract in English through the following link:

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5728&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica.+1a+onada+2016


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 02, 2016, 10:27:48 AM
Public deficit for 2015 exceeds gloomiest forecasts, signalling tough adjustment for Spain's next government

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/31/inenglish/1459411345_907362.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on April 18, 2016, 02:34:06 PM
Podemos members reject backing Socialist-led govt in Spain.  It was 88.23% opposed to such a government.  So unless PP-PSOE-C can form a government soon we are looking at elections in the Summer.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on April 18, 2016, 03:01:29 PM
Can someone explain to me why Si que es pot bombed in the regional elections but has now propelled themselves to second in the polls? I thought Catalans were voting Podem nationally for the same reasons they have been voting PSC/PSOE nationally : these parties are more likely/willing to compromise. But it seems the Podemos wave has hit Catalunya.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 18, 2016, 09:52:14 PM
Podemos members reject backing Socialist-led govt in Spain.  It was 88.23% opposed to such a government. 

That's not entirely correct. Podemos membership rejected to join the pact between PSOE and C's (88,23% against), but supported a left-wing coalition government led by socialists and including PSOE, Podemos, IU and Compromís (91.7% in favour). Anyway, that vote was as meaningless as the vote held among PSOE membership on the deal between Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera (around 80% supported the PSOE-C's deal). More than presenting different alternatives to their grassroots, both consultations were plebiscites on Pablo Iglesias and Pedro Sánchez leaderships in Podemos and PSOE.

So unless PP-PSOE-C can form a government soon we are looking at elections in the Summer.

The Grand Coalition is very unlikely now, but maybe not after a new election. Conservatives hope to place first again and force socialists to be 'responsible' and accept such deal. They would like that Pedro Sánchez was replaced in PSOE leadership by someone more compliant. However new scandals have emerged in PP, making difficult that PSOE and C's agree a coalition government led by conservatives as long as Mariano Rajoy doesn't resign (by the moment, the man holds on tight to leadership).

Unless there is a last minute move, Spain is heading towards elections on June 26.

New scandals in PP.

On Friday, Industry Minister José Manuel Soria resigned over Panama Papers

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/04/15/inenglish/1460704796_121697.html

Quote
Spain’s acting industry minister, José Manuel Soria, on Friday announced he was stepping down over his involvement in offshore companies.

The move comes at the end of a week when his name was linked to the Panama Papers, a trove of 11.5 million internal documents from a Panama-based law firm that was leaked to the media.

The politician also gave up his positions as congressional deputy and president of the Popular Party (PP) in the Canary Islands, his home region.

After initially denying allegations of his involvement in a Bahamas firm and a mirror company in Britain, Soria had agreed to appear in Congress next week to provide explanations.

But further emerging information about his alleged ties to a Jersey-based company put Soria up against the ropes on Thursday (...)

Yesterday, the PP Mayor of Granada resigned over his alleged involvement in an urban planning corruption development.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 18, 2016, 10:34:55 PM
Can someone explain to me why Si que es pot bombed in the regional elections but has now propelled themselves to second in the polls?

The bad result of Catalunya Sí que es Pot in regional elections is attributable to a host of factors. Among these we could mention an uncharismatic candidate and errors made in the campaign. Above all the leftist alliance was damaged by the polarized nature of the last Catalan election, which was fought on the separatist-unionist divide. On the one hand, some of its potential voters might have picked separatist options such as JxSí or the CUP as a means to protest against the Madrid government. On the other hand, the success of C's was in good part due to the support obtained by the center-right unionist party in metropolitan Barcelona, among voters sociologically leftist but not supportive of the separatist agenda.

The involvement of the charismatic Mayoress of Barcelona Ada Colau, who didn't support Sí que es Pot in the regional election,  was decisive for the success of En Comú Podem in the general election. The conduction of the campaign was left in the hands of the Colau's group (Barcelona en Comú). Although the ECP platform included the issue of a referendum in Catalonia, the campaign was focused on the social agenda and the alliance was very successful in the former PSC strongholds in metropolitan Barcelona.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 25, 2016, 08:25:13 AM
"King Felipe facing final fruitless talks with Spain’s political leaders"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/04/25/inenglish/1461569481_908275.html

Quote
King Felipe VI will on Monday begin the third and last round of talks with Spanish politicians to determine whether there is a last-minute chance to form a government, or whether new elections have to be called.

Efforts by parties to reach governing deals following the inconclusive elections of December 20 have proven fruitless, and the deadline for the dissolution of parliament is May 2.

It is likely that Podemos and IU reach a deal in order to run together in the upcoming election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2016, 10:59:02 AM
Well congrats Podemos, you blew probably your only chance of having any meaningful impact.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 25, 2016, 12:22:50 PM
Well congrats Podemos, you blew probably your only chance of having any meaningful impact.

There is a shared responsibility in this state of affairs. It would have been desirable some minimum agreement between PSOE, Podemos and C's in order to send corrupt PP to opposition. I think it would have been healthy for our political system and institutions. However, it was impossible. Without going into great depth in this boring affair and in my opinion, among the causes of the negotiations' failure are the Pablo Iglesias' ambitions and the boycott placed on Podemos by certain factions in PSOE ( the 'Old Senate' and territorial leaders) and Ciudadanos, whose explicit aim was to prevent the presence of the purple party in the government.

I'm afraid that the most likely result will be that PP and C's might win a majority in the upcoming election, mostly because abstentionism is expected to be higher and will affect the leftist electorate to a greater extent. Possibly the alliance between Podemos and IU will surpass PSOE in raw votes, but maybe not in parliamentary seats.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on April 26, 2016, 11:19:18 AM
Well congrats Podemos, you blew probably your only chance of having any meaningful impact.
I don't see how helping the corpse of a corrupt "socialist" party living on would be "having a meaningful impact", but maybe that's just me. SD parties in Europe need to DIAF.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on April 26, 2016, 12:31:10 PM
What has changed to make a Podemos-IU alliance possible/likely, and what potential problems remain?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 26, 2016, 01:37:05 PM
Cortes is dissolved. (http://www.france24.com/en/breaking/20160426-spain-king-calls-fresh-elections-after-coalition-talks-fail?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=breaking&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2016-04-26&dlvrit=135121)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on April 26, 2016, 05:08:57 PM
¡!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2016, 07:46:52 AM
Cortes is dissolved. (http://www.france24.com/en/breaking/20160426-spain-king-calls-fresh-elections-after-coalition-talks-fail?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=breaking&aef_campaign_ref=partage_aef&aef_campaign_date=2016-04-26&dlvrit=135121)

What?

That has not happened yet. The decree of dissolution will be issued on May 3.

There was a last and fruitless effort.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/26/spain-faces-new-elections-june-parties-fail-to-form-government

Quote
A last-ditch attempt to save Spain from going to the polls for the second time in six months failed after the leader of the Socialist Workers’ party (PSOE), Pedro Sánchez, told the king that he could not muster enough seats, saying, “I cannot and should not submit myself for investiture”(...)

After months of stagnation there was a last-minute flurry of hope after the so-called Prado accord was presented on Tuesday by the progressive green party Compromís. The accord emulates the cross-party coalition that governs the Valencia region.

The following paragraph is somewhat inaccurate

Quote
The group put forward 30 proposals that would have allowed Sánchez to be sworn in as president of a left coalition of independents. The government would then submit to a vote of confidence.

Sánchez’s PSOE agreed to 27 of the 30 proposals, but this was not good enough for Podemos. “We’ve made enough concessions already,” said the leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, adding that PSOE’s counter-offer amounted to a no. “We are going to win this election and we will offer our hand to PSOE and progressive forces.”

The proposals submitted by Compromís would have allowed a coalition government between PSOE, Podemos, IU and the Valencian party. The possibility of a socialist minority government with the addition of independents and the motion of confidence were included in the PSOE's counteroffer. Once PSOE dismissed the leftist coalition, Compromís leader Mónica Oltra told the press that PSOE's claim to govern alone with only 90 seats in the Congress was ridiculous. Immediately the prospect of a deal was gave up for dead; later Pablo Iglesias' statements confirmed that there was no possibility of a last-minute deal. Apparently Compromís submitted this proposal without warning Podemos, causing some upset in the purple party leadership.

Ciudadanos was asked in the Compromís document to abstain in the eventuality of an investiture vote. Albert Rivera immediately despised the offer.

Quote
Ciudadanos, for its part, said it did not want to join a government based on the radical Compromís proposals, which cover issues from employment law to evictions. Referring to PSOE’s three-page document, the leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, said: “Three pages on governing Spain for four years between six different parties. It’s not even worth looking at.”


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2016, 11:52:31 AM
What has changed to make a Podemos-IU alliance possible/likely, and what potential problems remain?

After the inconclusive December elections and the stagnation of the following months, the political situation has changed somewhat. The upcoming election is seen as a second round of that held on December 20. Then Podemos and allies placed third, trailing PSOE by only 300 thousand votes (1.3%). IU got 900 thousand votes nationwide, mostly wasted due to the province-based electoral system. In case Podemos and IU had been allied and got the same result they obtained separately, the correlation of forces in the Congress would have changed somewhat. According to the estimation linked below, the result would have been (in brackets, actual results): PP 114 (123), PSOE 89 (90), Podemos-IU 85 (71), C's 36 (40), Others 26 (25).

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/GRAFICO-Congreso-Podemos-confluencias-IU_0_464754323.html

Such projections must be taken with the due reserve. It's uncertain that such an alliance could have obtained all the vote Podemos and IU got separately, since part of the Podemos voters might not like an alliance with the IU and vice versa. In any case, results would have placed the left closer to get a majority in Congress.

Polls suggest that the failed process of negotiations has damaged Podemos somewhat (estimations are in the range of 15% to 20%), while IU is increasing support (around 5%, with some polls in the 7% to 8% range).

Despite Podemos and IU have programmatic affinities, the obstacles that prevented an alliance remain. According to El Diario, they are:

1) Coalition at national or regional level.

Prior to the December election, IU demanded a coalition agreement nationwide. Podemos rejected the offer, admitting only "territorial agreements". Finally, Podemos reached alliances with other parties at regional level in Catalonia, Galicia and Valencia. Alliances in Catalonia and Galicia included the IU regional branches.

Recently IU de facto leader Alberto Garzón has reaffirmed his statements: the agreement will be at national level or will not be. This time the Podemos leadership seems more ready to accept. Voices in favour of negotiate region by region are less numerous, being their main supporter Podemos second in command Íñigo Errejón. It's possible that both organizations will agree an intermediate solution: coalition agreement at national level, but "territorializing" campaign issues (names, logos, coalition partners) in the different regions.

2) Electoral lists.

The issue here is how many IU candidates are placed in positions where they are likely to be elected, as well where to place Alberto Garzón. Possibly the IU's top candidate will demand a place in the joint list for Madrid. In previous talks Podemos offered Garzón to run on top in his home province of Málaga. Given that Pablo Iglesias is going to top the Madrid list (it will be a "zippered "one, alternating men and women), Garzón would run in third place and Errejón would be placed in a lower position.

3) Reciprocal recognition and respect.

The relationship between Podemos and IU has been complicated. Podemos emerged on the eve of the 2014 EU elections. Iglesias et alii proposed initially to be accepted in IU as an internal political movement and they were rejected. The subsequent Podemos' success arose fear and susceptibility in the IU's leadership. In a certain moment, Pablo Iglesias told the IU leaders to "cook themselves in their red stars", while Alberto Garzón said that Podemos was "the new UCD". However, Garzón has a reasonably fluid relationship with Pablo Iglesias and others in Podemos leadership. That's not the case with veteran IU leaders like Cayo Lara and Gaspar Llamazares, the latter staunchly opposed to an agreement with Podemos and closer to PSOE.

IU fears to be drowned by the Podemos' tsunami and wants to vindicate its track record, cadres and territorial implementation. On the other hand, a good proportion of the Podemos leadership comes from IU and environs. Major political figures in Podemos are aware that IU cadres are well trained in partisan struggle, while their own cadres have little experience in such affairs.

A key obstacle in the alliance between Podemos and IU might be the inclusion of the IU's name in the ballots. Many in Podemos are very reluctant to do so, arguing that the IU brand limits the possibility of reaching a broader portion of the electorate (the so-called "transversality", key in the Podemos' discourse). An intermediate solution could be calling the coalition "Podemos En Común", "Podemos-Unidad Popular" or something in the like.

4) Internal resistance.

As said before, in the IU the main opposition comes from Gaspar Llamazares. Other veterans like Cayo Lara are reluctant. To the contrary, old leader Julio Anguita has publicly stated his support for the alliance and Alberto Garzón (openly in favour too) seems to be backed by a large majority of the organization.

In Podemos the main opposition comes from those who warn that an alliance with IU can "laminate" the elements that make Podemos distinctive: "new politics" vs "old politics", cross-party appeal ("transversality"), etcetera. Mainly these people is linked with Errejón, although the second in command is not openly opposed to the alliance. To quote Errejón, "abacus counts hardly ever work" and "well made agreements multiply" but botched ones "rest or divide".

Major political figures in Podemos have stated open support including Pablo Iglesias, Juan Carlos Monedero, Ada Colau and Mónica Oltra.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on April 27, 2016, 01:24:07 PM
Thanks for a very informative and clearly high effort answer!
I had heard about the name issue and indeed that it was what stopped an alliance for the last elections; was that really all there was or would it be fair to say that it was at least partly an excuse to hide the bigger divides between the parties? Oh, and is my impression that this cleavage within IU is based on PCE vs the "alternative" left /working-class vs middle-class support correct?

Why is Errejón opposed or at least critical when he has otherwise been the one most in favour of closer relations with the rest of the left?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2016, 03:59:22 PM
I had heard about the name issue and indeed that it was what stopped an alliance for the last elections; was that really all there was or would it be fair to say that it was at least partly an excuse to hide the bigger divides between the parties? Oh, and is my impression that this cleavage within IU is based on PCE vs the "alternative" left /working-class vs middle-class support correct?

I'd say the main cleavage is between "new politics" and "old politics", being the PCE a clear representative of the latter. Pablo Iglesias, Errejón and the others have stated that IU has proved to be an inefficient instrument to attract a majority and win elections. They claim that the old dialectical cleavage between the left and the right leads inevitably to defeat, among other reasons because the mainstream left (socialdemocracy) gave up. In order to overcome such cleavage, they always appeal to the "social majority" as opposed to the ruling political and economic elites. 

Why is Errejón opposed or at least critical when he has otherwise been the one most in favour of closer relations with the rest of the left?

Errejón may have reservations or to be sceptical, but he doesn't oppose the alliance. Today he has accused PSOE of "constant pressure" on IU and Compromís in order to prevent an alliance with Podemos.

In recent times certain organizational and tactical differences between Errejón and Pablo Iglesias surfaced. However, they don't seem to have major ideological disagreements. Errejón is the main advocate of appealing the "social majority", while Iglesias and some people coming from the IU (Rafael Mayoral or Irene Montero) have great political and emotional affinity with people like Julio Anguita. The latter was the IU candidate in the 90s or, in other words, he was the leader of the "old alternative left". The most cherished dream of Anguita was that IU became the main party of the Spanish left by surpassing PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 03, 2016, 02:26:49 PM
King Felipe dissolves Parliament

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/world/europe/king-felipe-spain-dissolves-parliament-new-elections.html?ref=europe&_r=0

Quote
King Felipe VI of Spain signed a decree on Tuesday to dissolve Parliament and hold a rerun of national elections for the first time since the country’s return to democracy in the late 1970s.

The step followed months of political paralysis and discord over who should form a government after inconclusive elections in December. That election resulted in a fracturing of Spain’s political landscape with the emergence of insurgent parties that challenged the establishment, marking a sea change in the nation’s politics.

The repeat election is now scheduled for June 26, but opinion polls suggest that the outcome of a new vote could look much like the first, which split ballots among four main parties, with no single one close to a majority.

Turnout, however, could fall amid growing frustration about the intense but fruitless party squabbling (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 06, 2016, 06:13:32 AM
CIS, April 2016

PP 27.4% (28.7%), PSOE 21.6% (22%), Podemos 18.1%* (20.7%), C's 15.6% (13.9%), IU-UP 5.4% (3.7%), ERC 2.5% (2.4%), DiL 1.9% (2.3%). EAJ-PNV 1% (1.2%), EHBildu 0.7% (0.9%)

* (Podemos, En Comú Podem, En Marea, Compromís)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on May 06, 2016, 07:59:42 AM
Podemos - IU deal approved by the IU membership (84.5% yes, 13.1% no, 2.4% abstention). Turnout was 28%. The deal will apparently be officially announced on the 15th to celebrate the 5th anniversary of the 15-M.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 09, 2016, 06:07:04 PM
Podemos and IU have sealed a preliminary agreement to run a join list in the upcoming June elections. The membership of both organizations will vote tomorrow and the day after in order to validate the pact. Results will be known on Thursday. The agreement ensures 1/6 of the seats for IU, which in turn lows some ideological banners that are divisive issued between both organizations (republic as state form, nationalization of energy enterprises and leaving the NATO). The coalition includes Equo, the Spanish green party, that keeps the candidates who ran in December integrated in the Podemos lists (2 or 3 members were elected, the Equo leader was the top candidate in Álava). Regional alliances in Catalonia and Galicia will remain the same and IU will join the alliance between Podemos and Compromís in Valencia. In the Balearic Islands Podemos and IU are trying to add the 'eco-nationalist' MÉS. Both organizations will run in an electoral coalition and campaign jointly, although Podemos and IU are free to arrange their own campaign acts.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on May 11, 2016, 10:57:36 AM
Iglesias now brilliantly trolling the PSOE by proposing a deal for the Senate election. No news on whether it would be called the Frente Popular. Sanchez has unsurprisingly said no.
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 11, 2016, 02:21:16 PM
Iglesias now brilliantly trolling the PSOE by proposing a deal for the Senate election

This offer has created some dissention in the PSOE. Ximo Puig, who is the Valencia premier and leads the party's regional branch, is negotiating a joint Senate list with Podemos and Compromís in the three provinces of the region. Pedro Sánchez opposes because PSOE is an "autonomous project". In case the deal was reached in Valencia, the PSOE's federal commission is likely to reject it. However Mr Puig wants to continue talks appealing to "exceptional circumstances" existing in the Valencia region, where PSOE governs with Compromís and has parliamentary support from Podemos.  He assures that's not a challenge to Sánchez and tries to convince the national leadership of the benefits of a pact in Valencia, which could help to prevent a PP majority in Senate.

Headline in El País reflects concern:

"Campaign duel between Podemos and PP leaves Socialists stuck in the middle. Left and right are pressuring Pedro Sánchez to choose a post-election partner"

Quote
Acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy and anti-austerity challenger Pablo Iglesias want to turn the general election of June 26 into a run-off of the original December 20 vote, which yielded a hung parliament. The combat between the moderation and common sense preached by the Popular Party (PP) candidate and the radical leftist policies attributed to the Podemos leader could ultimately leave the Socialist (PSOE) nominee in no man’s land. Pedro Sánchez is feeling the pressure from the recent deal between Podemos and the Communist Party-led United Left, who will run together and could potentially overtake the main opposition party on June 26. Meanwhile, Iglesias has offered Sánchez the chance to run together for the Senate. But the Socialist leader on Tuesday reaffirmed “the PSOE’s autonomous project.”

Albeit uncoordinated, the PP and Podemos' strategies could turn the Socialist Party into something of a supporting actor. Rajoy and Iglesias want to weaken Sánchez’s position and force him to choose one of them as a potential partner in a post-election alliance. The challenge now for the Socialist leader is to extricate himself from this potential double whammy and convince voters that the PSOE is a party with a project of its own (...)

The editorial line of El País was traditionally close to the centre-left and PSOE. Currently its editorialists are openly hostile to Podemos and very excited with the centre-right Ciudadanos. The paper was a strong advocate of the PSOE-C's deal and apparently its current editor stated his wish to help the oranges to be a party of government. Conservative papers, on the other hand, are amusingly worried about the fate of IU and the communists.

In any case, the strategic lines of the campaign are drawn. PP will appeal to the fear factor (the menace of a Frente Popular), in order to mobilize conservative vote and attract moderates who left them for Ciudadanos. The alliance between Podemos and IU seeks to optimize the leftist vote and generate enough enthusiasm, in order to prevent abstentionism among its potential voters. Ciudadanos will market itself as a "responsible" party open to negotiate with PP and PSOE, ensuring governability and moderate reforms. PSOE is, indeed, stuck in the middle.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 13, 2016, 02:22:15 PM
Unidos Podemos ("United We Can") is the chosen name for the coalition between Podemos and IU. The agreement was endorsed by 98% of the Podemos supporters who turned out, as well by 87.8% of the IU's membership.

In Valencia Podemos, IU and Compromís sealed an agreement. Meanwhile, Valencian socialists abide the veto put by the PSOE's federal commission on a joint list with Podemos and Compromís for the Senate.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on May 17, 2016, 05:56:24 AM
They worked really hard on the name :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2016, 12:16:01 PM
The 'seriousness' of the Rajoy administration, the EC's 'good pupil', leads to this:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/18/inenglish/1463581059_204053.html

Quote
Brussels has postponed sanctions against Spain for its continuous deficit target misses until after the country holds general elections on June 26.

But that is where the good news ends.

On Wednesday, the European Commission (EC) also demanded budget cuts of over €8 billion between this year and the next.

The European executive wants Spain to bring down its deficit to 3.7% of GDP in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017. The Spanish deficit at the end of 2015 was 5.1% of economic output, far above its target. The country has the second-largest deficit in the entire EU.

EC President Jean-Claude Juncker has defeated the voices that were asking for a strict application of fiscal regulations and immediate sanctions against Spain for overshooting its target again.

Instead, the EC will wait until after Spaniards go back to the polls following the inconclusive election of December 20. According to a EU source, a decision will be made “in the first few days of July.” (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2016, 02:46:58 AM
Basque Country poll (Gizaker)

Basque Parliament (in brackets, 2012 results)

EAJ-PNV 35.5% (34.2%), 27 (27) seats

EH Bildu 20.2% (24.7%), 16 (21) seats

Unidos Podemos 19.9% (IU 2.9%), 15 (-) seats

PSE-EE 11% (18.9%), 9 (16) seats

PP 9.2% (11.6%), 7 (10) seats

C's 3% (new), 1 (-) seat

General election (in brackets, December 2015 results)

Unidos Podemos 28.8% (Podemos 26%, IU-UP 2.9%), 6 (5) seats

EAJ-PNV 25.4% (24.8%), 6 (6) seats

EH Bildu 15.5% (15.1%), 2 (2) seats

PSE-EE 13.1% (13.3%), 2 (3) seats

PP 10.5% (11.6%), 2 (2) seats

C's 4.5% (4.1%), 0 (0) seats

http://www.electograph.com/2016/05/pais-vasco-generales-mayo-2016-sondeo.html

Fleg affair

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/20/inenglish/1463755712_233114.html

Quote
A Madrid court has weighed into the row over the presence of esteladas – the flag adopted by supporters of Catalan independence – by ruling that fans at the final of the Kings Cup between Barcelona and Sevilla, to be hedl on Sunday in the Spanish capital, can display the distinctive red and yellow striped banner (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2016, 01:16:01 AM
New episodes in the PP corruption saga: Bárcenas papers

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/23/inenglish/1464011231_909157.html

Quote
A High Court judge has given Spain’s Popular Party (PP) a period of 10 days to pay a civil bond of €1.2 million in connection with a court case relating to an alleged party slush fund and irregular payments, the radio station Cadena SER reported on Monday. The party, which is currently in charge of a caretaker government after inconclusive elections in 2015, will face having its accounts and assets frozen should it not make the payment.

The case in question is related to the former treasurers of the party, who are alleged to have paid for refurbishment work at their national headquarters, in Génova street in Madrid, with undeclared cash, as well having allegedly maintained a slush fund of irregular donations and payments for at least 18 years.

In other news, a letter sent to Jean-Claude Juncker by Mariano Rajoy promises "additional measures" (that is to say: more cuts) if PP stays in government. Such a compromise is in open contradiction with Rajoy's discourse in Spain (less taxes and no more cuts).

A couple of polls released on the last few days show the Podemos-IU alliance about 3% ahead of PSOE. Translated into parliamentary seats, Unidos Podemos is on the verge of surpassing PSOE. Given the particular nature of the Spanish electoral system and that socialists resist better in the less populated provinces, it is estimated that Unidos Podemos needs an advantage of 3% or more to be the second force in parliament.

Metroscopia / El País

PP 29.9%, Unidos Podemos 23.2%, PSOE 20.2%, C's 15.5%

NC Report / La Razón

PP 30.4%, Unidos Podemos 24.9%, PSOE 21.1%, C's 14.5%

Graph showing the self-described ideological leaning of PP, PSOE, Podemos, C's and IU voters on a 1-10 scale (1= far-left, 10= far-right), based on the CIS post-election survey (April 2016)

()

Source: Politikon

http://politikon.es/2016/05/20/politikon-grafico-el-nuevo-espacio-de-competicion-politica/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on May 24, 2016, 03:45:51 AM
I wonder who might be "2" PP voter? What type of person?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2016, 06:50:43 AM
I wonder who might be "2" PP voter? What type of person?

I don't know. The percentage of PP voters placed between 2 and 4 is negligible. It must be a type of person as weird as the PSOE voter placed on the 9.

As shown in the graph below Podemos is hegemonic among voters placed on the far-left (1-2), voters placed on the left are divided between Podemos (3) and PSOE (4), the centre (5-6) is overcrowded with C's as the preferred option of voters placed on 5 and PP enjoys an overwhelming support in the right (7-8) and the far-right (9-10).

It must be noted that the average Spanish voter is placed between 4 and 5, which is the place where voters place the PSOE (4.52). Podemos (2.24) and IU (2.33) are perceived by voters near the far left, C's on the centre right (6.43) and PP on the right (8.24).


()

Other data from the CIS post-election survey shows interesting cleavages. I'll point a few taken with an analysis linked below with graphs and stuff.

http://debate21.es/2016/05/03/el-cis-postelectoral-a-fondo/

Age groups:

18-24: Podemos 31.2%, C's 17.6%, PSOE 14.5%, PP 11.8%, IU 3.7%
25-34: Podemos 35.7%, C's 16%, PSOE 13.4%, PP 11.1%, IU 3.6%
35-44: Podemos 22.8%, C's 18.2%, PP 17.6%, PSOE 15.4%, IU 3.8%
45-54: PSOE 21.4%, Podemos 20.6%, PP 18.6%, C's 13.5%, IU 4.9%
55-64: PSOE 25.7%, PP 20.9%, Podemos 16.1%, C's 9.5%, IU 4.9%
65 +:   PP 37.6%, PSOE 22.2%, Podemos 8.2%, C's 4.9%, IU 1.8%

Level of education:

Without studies: PSOE 33.7%, PP 33.2%, Podemos 8.4%, C's 4.9%, IU 1.9%
Primary education: PP 30.7%, PSOE 29.2%, Podemos 10%, C's 5.4%, IU 2%
Secondary education (1st stage): PP 22.2%, PSOE 21.9%, Podemos 19.6%, C's 10.5%, IU 3.5%
Secondary education (2nd stage): Podemos 25.2%, PP 18,2%, PSOE 14.9%, C's 14.5%, IU 3.3%
Professional training: Podemos 25.4%, PSOE 17.8%, PP 16.6%, C's 15.4%, IU 3.7%
Higher education: Podemos 24.3%, PP 18.5%, C's 17.8%, PSOE 10%, IU 5.9%

Population of the municipalities:


Less than 2K: PP 32.5%, PSOE 22.9%, Podemos 10.5%, C's 8.6%, IU 1.6%
2K to 10K: PSOE 24.8%, PP 22.1%, Podemos 15.8%, C's 8.3%, IU 3.5%
10K to 50K: PSOE 21.3%, PP 18.8%, Podemos 18.6%, C's 12.8%, IU 3.6%
50K to 1000K: PP 23.8%, Podemos 22.3%, PSOE 18%, C's 13.7%, IU 3.5%
100K to 400K: Podemos 24.6%, PP 20.6%, PSOE 16.6%, C's 13.5%, IU 3.8%
400K to 1M: Podemos 24%, PP 23.2%, PSOE 18.6%, C's 16.8%, IU 5.7%
More than 1M: Podemos 23.2%, PP 20.3%, C's 13.2%, PSOE 12.6%, IU 4.4%

According to CIS Podemos is the preferred party among the "upper and upper-middle classes", PP wins in the "old middle classes" and is tied to Podemos in the "new middle classes", PSOE is the choice of skilled and non-skilled workers. I think the "socio-economic status"categories in the CIS surveys are a bit strange, tbh.

As for the "socio-economic condition" categories, they show that Podemos has an overwhelming support among students and is the preferred party of technicians and middle managers. PP wins among retirees, peasants and domestic workers. Directors, professionals and small entrepreneurs prefer PP or Podemos in this order. Podemos and C's are the preferred parties of the office workers. Skilled and non-skilled workers, as well the unemployed prefer Podemos or PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 24, 2016, 07:04:09 AM
It is impressive that Podemos–IU seems to be running slightly ahead of its 2015 performance.  In situations like this one would expect polarization toward the two largest blocs in 2015 which would be PP and PSOE but this does not seem to be the case.  In the election results roughly matches polls are we not just stuck in the same deadlock as 2015?  If PSOE loses support from 2015 to the point where they are behind Podemos–IU would they not support PP-C from the outside to prevent another election where they will lose more support ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on May 24, 2016, 08:02:40 AM
It is impressive that Podemos–IU seems to be running slightly ahead of its 2015 performance.  In situations like this one would expect polarization toward the two largest blocs in 2015 which would be PP and PSOE but this does not seem to be the case.  In the election results roughly matches polls are we not just stuck in the same deadlock as 2015?  If PSOE loses support from 2015 to the point where they are behind Podemos–IU would they not support PP-C from the outside to prevent another election where they will lose more support ?

You would expect polarisation toward the two largest ideological blocs. As it has happened, Podemos and IU have a much clearer ideological positioning and bent than the PSOE (or C's, but for C's that's an asset) does. As a result, polarisation favours the two more extreme political forces, PP and Podemos+IU.

Yes, we are. Even if PSOE comes behind in terms of votes, it will remain ahead in terms of seats due to our electoral system's quirks. Podemos just doesn't have the necessary rural base.

That last question is the key.  Perhaps, but perhaps they will try to make sure to lead a left-wing government to try and regain the dominance on the left.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 24, 2016, 08:48:46 AM
What about the Catalonia situation?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2016, 01:39:35 PM
What about the Catalonia situation?

It's as confusing as ever. The Catalan government is facing problems to pass this year's budget, that Oriol Junqueras (the ERC leader and vicepremier in charge of the economic portfolio) deems as the one with the most social awareness in history. Despite that claim JxSí has been left alone by the CUP, whose grassroots voted a couple of days ago to break the deal with the ruling coalition. Rumours of a new election take shape, by the moment ruled out by regional government. In the JxSí alliance ERC and CDC distance themselves. CDC is in a process of re-foundation and their grassroots and cadres don't like the measures Junqueras wants to implement in order to please the CUP (in vain), contrary to the party's economic philosophy. ERC wants to become the main force of the Catalan nationalism and make plans of future alliances with En Comú Podem.

In Barcelona, Mayoress Ada Colau is facing similar problems with the CUP to pass the budget. Recently Barcelona en Comú and PSC reached an agreement and the Catalan socialists have joined the local government. BComú and PSC are lacking a majority and need the support of ERC and the CUP. The eviction of some squatters in the Gràcia district and subsequent incidents and havoc have created controversy. Local government condemned the violent incidents, while the CUP supports the evicted unconditionally and links the police action with support to local and regional budgets.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on May 24, 2016, 02:29:26 PM
But how is the road map to independence coming along? It seems as if things have stalled due to the broader electoral situation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2016, 05:53:20 AM
Rajoy's letter to Juncker proves he has a hidden agenda, claims opposition

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/24/inenglish/1464076568_248060.html

Quote
   
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez said that Rajoy lies shamelessly.


The Spanish political scene was in turmoil on Monday after EL PAÍS revealed the contents of a letter that acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy sent to the European Commission.

In the letter, Rajoy said that if he is re-elected at the upcoming elections of June 26, he is “prepared to adopt new measures, if required, in order to meet the [deficit] target.”

In public, Rajoy, of the Popular Party (PP), has denied that Spain will require any further spending cuts following a raft of unpopular measures that were taken at the height of the economic crisis (...)

Almost 30% of Spaniards at risk of poverty and social exclusion

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/24/inenglish/1464093786_635472.html

Quote
The financial crisis that has hit the Spanish economy since 2008 drags on. The macroeconomic data is steadily improving, but many Spaniards still face severe hardship.

The latest Eurostat figures show that 28.6% of Spaniards are at risk of poverty or social exclusion, a slight improvement on the figure of 29.2% for 2014.

The recession has left deep scars on Spanish society. Some 6.4% of Spaniards say they face severe material shortfalls, meaning for example that they cannot afford to take a summer vacation, eat meat or fish for at least two days a week, put the heating or air conditioning on, or pay for a washing machine (...)

El País entitles today that Unidos Podemos prepares a campaign "on the offensive" with the aim of becoming in an alternative of government. Alliance partners anticipate "much tension" and attacks from all sides. It's predictable a campaign against the Podemos-IU alliance from mainstream media, as it has been happening with the purple party before the 2015 elections. In this context, C's leader Albert Rivera is in Venezuela in support of opposition leaders. Obviously this travel has a connection with the Spanish campaign and the attempts to link Podemos with the Chavista wreckage lead by Maduro (the president is so discredited that Enrique Mujica, who supports Podemos in Spain, said recently that he's crazy), as well with the unverified claims of illegal funding from Venezuela. Asked in a radio station if he was as concerned by the Syrian refugee crisis as he is with Venezuela, Rivera said that he paid a visit to Greece. No echo in media.

Metroscopia analysis.

PP voters: "aged and moved to the right"

60% of PP voters are over 55 years, 28% between 35 and 54 years and only 12% are between 18 and 34. The age composition of the Spanish electorate is: 40% over 55, 39% between 35 and 54 and 21% between 18 and 34.

Profile by occupation (in brackets, average of the Spanish electorate): employed 30% (41%), retirees and pensioners 40% (25%), unemployed 10% (16%), student 6% (8%), unpaid domestic work 13% (10%)

Sex ratio: men 46% / women 54% (48% / 52%)

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/24/actualidad/1464102939_221275.html

PSOE voters: "women and retirees"

PSOE is the preferred party among women (44/56 ratio). The age composition of PSOE voters is: 54% over 55, 33% between 35 and 44, 13% between 18 and 34.

Profile by occupation: employed 38%, retirees and pensioners 36%, unemployed 10%, student 4%, unpaid domestic work 12%.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/23/actualidad/1464025230_355867.html?rel=mas



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2016, 05:56:08 AM
It seems as if things have stalled due to the broader electoral situation.

It's stalled by the broader electoral situation as well by disunity in the separatist camp and other factors. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: bmw1503 on May 25, 2016, 08:09:15 PM
It's fascinating (and quite shocking) to see Podemos doing so well amongst the wealthiest Spaniards, which doesn't really seem to have an international comparison (for instance, Syriza got crushed with that group in the Greek elections.) Obviously their first rank position is due to the split in the right vote between PP and Cs, but it still seems like an usually high vote share for a quite left-wing party. Doubly so having seen the election results last time in Madrid neighborhoods like Salamanca that one thinks of when imaging affluent Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2016, 04:13:19 AM
It's fascinating (and quite shocking) to see Podemos doing so well amongst the wealthiest Spaniards, which doesn't really seem to have an international comparison (for instance, Syriza got crushed with that group in the Greek elections.) Obviously their first rank position is due to the split in the right vote between PP and Cs, but it still seems like an usually high vote share for a quite left-wing party. Doubly so having seen the election results last time in Madrid neighborhoods like Salamanca that one thinks of when imaging affluent Spain.

I think that CIS surveys can lead to confusion in what regards the "socioeconomic status" (categories should be reviewed). Podemos does pretty well amongst Spaniards with a high level of education and certain professionals, as well amongst middle class individuals that have lost income or have uncertain prospects of future, or had to flee due to the lack of job opportunities (Podemos is the first party amongst expats, hence the government has little intent to lift legal restrictions to vote overseas). However, Podemos is not the first party amongst the most affluent Spaniards. As you can expect, PP is hegemonic in wealthy places like Salamanca district in Madrid and the second party is Ciudadanos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2016, 04:30:17 AM
Profile of Unidos Podemos voters, according to Metroscopia:

Sex ratio: men 57% / women 43% (average 48% / 52%)

Age groups: 24% over 55 years (average 40%), 41% between 35 and 54 (average 39%), 35% between 18 and 34 (average 21%)

Occupation: employed 46% (41%), retiree or pensioner 11% (25%), unemployed 23% (16%), student 16% (8%), unpaid domestic work 4% (10%)

Ideology: 31% socialist, 17% socialdemocrat, 15% communist, 12% liberal, 4% radical left, 3% anarchist.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/25/actualidad/1464200025_090852.html


Long read about Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau in The Guardian, on the first anniversary of the 'governments of change':

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/26/ada-colau-barcelona-most-radical-mayor-in-the-world

Quote
(...) The date of Colau’s victory – 24 May 2015 – was to be, in the words of one spray-painted graffiti slogan, “a day that will last for years”. Colau had been elected mayor on behalf of Barcelona en Comú, a new “citizens’ movement” backed by several leftwing parties. She became the city’s first ever female mayor, and BComú the first new party to gain power after 35 years dominated by the centre-left PSC and centre-right CiU.

The date was not only significant in Barcelona. BComú was one of several new groups that had defeated the established parties to win power in eight major Spanish cities, including Madrid, Valencia and Zaragoza. These new “mayors of change” became symbols of hope for what progressives in Spain sometimes call la nueva politica.

It has become commonplace across the western world to talk of “new politics” in response to voter apathy, economic crises, corruption and the decline of established political parties. In Spain, however, the phrase has a ring of truth to it. After years of social upheaval following the financial crisis, widespread uprisings against political and business elites have transformed the country’s political landscape. Just as the Indignados, who occupied Spanish squares in their millions in the summer of 2011, inspired the global Occupy movement, it was in Spain, too, that this energy was first channelled into political movements capable of contesting elections, such as the leftwing populist party Podemos.

Colau has been involved every step of the way, and as mayor of the country’s second-biggest city, she now possesses real political power – arguably more so than Podemos, which came third in the Spanish general election last December. The question Colau now faces is a vital one for the left across Europe: can she put her radical agenda into practice (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2016, 12:29:53 AM
A Celeste-Tel poll released by eldiario.es shows Unidos Podemos 2% ahead of PSOE. However, socialists would keep the status of second parliamentary force. The alliance between Podemos and IU would have the consequence of increasing the seats of the left block in Congress, although an hypothetical PSOE-UP coalition would be still short of a majority.

PP 29.5% (120-122 seats), UP 24.2% (78-82), PSOE 22% (84-87), C's 14.9% (38-41), Others 9.4% (21-23)

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Unidos-Podemos-confluencias-PSOE-escanos_0_520048634.html

Profile of the "volatile" C's voters, according to Metroscopia

Sex ratio: men 51% / women 49% (48% / 52%)

Age composition: 23% over 55 (40%), 55% between 35 and 54 (39%), 22% between 18 and 34 (21%)

Occupation: employed 50% (41%), retiree or pensioner 13% (25%), unemployed 18% (16%), student 8% (8%), unpaid domestic work 10% (10%)

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/05/26/actualidad/1464277354_913281.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on May 27, 2016, 06:41:59 AM
What about the Catalonia situation?

It's as confusing as ever. The Catalan government is facing problems to pass this year's budget, that Oriol Junqueras (the ERC leader and vicepremier in charge of the economic portfolio) deems as the one with the most social awareness in history. Despite that claim JxSí has been left alone by the CUP, whose grassroots voted a couple of days ago to break the deal with the ruling coalition. Rumours of a new election take shape, by the moment ruled out by regional government. In the JxSí alliance ERC and CDC distance themselves. CDC is in a process of re-foundation and their grassroots and cadres don't like the measures Junqueras wants to implement in order to please the CUP (in vain), contrary to the party's economic philosophy. ERC wants to become the main force of the Catalan nationalism and make plans of future alliances with En Comú Podem.

In Barcelona, Mayoress Ada Colau is facing similar problems with the CUP to pass the budget. Recently Barcelona en Comú and PSC reached an agreement and the Catalan socialists have joined the local government. BComú and PSC are lacking a majority and need the support of ERC and the CUP. The eviction of some squatters in the Gràcia district and subsequent incidents and havoc have created controversy. Local government condemned the violent incidents, while the CUP supports the evicted unconditionally and links the police action with support to local and regional budgets.

If a new election happens in Catalonia, would ERC, CiU and the ICV nationalists (Romeva) stay in a joint list?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2016, 08:28:13 AM
What about the Catalonia situation?

It's as confusing as ever. The Catalan government is facing problems to pass this year's budget, that Oriol Junqueras (the ERC leader and vicepremier in charge of the economic portfolio) deems as the one with the most social awareness in history. Despite that claim JxSí has been left alone by the CUP, whose grassroots voted a couple of days ago to break the deal with the ruling coalition. Rumours of a new election take shape, by the moment ruled out by regional government. In the JxSí alliance ERC and CDC distance themselves. CDC is in a process of re-foundation and their grassroots and cadres don't like the measures Junqueras wants to implement in order to please the CUP (in vain), contrary to the party's economic philosophy. ERC wants to become the main force of the Catalan nationalism and make plans of future alliances with En Comú Podem.

In Barcelona, Mayoress Ada Colau is facing similar problems with the CUP to pass the budget. Recently Barcelona en Comú and PSC reached an agreement and the Catalan socialists have joined the local government. BComú and PSC are lacking a majority and need the support of ERC and the CUP. The eviction of some squatters in the Gràcia district and subsequent incidents and havoc have created controversy. Local government condemned the violent incidents, while the CUP supports the evicted unconditionally and links the police action with support to local and regional budgets.

If a new election happens in Catalonia, would ERC, CiU and the ICV nationalists (Romeva) stay in a joint list?

Everything points that JxSí is going to be a short-lived alliance. but nobody really knows. Right now Oriol Junqueras is conducting a "complex" budgetary negotiation with the CUP. The CUPaires demand a set of new taxes and to disobey the Constitutional Court, which has banned taxes the regional government wanted to implement (they are not included in the Junquera's draft). As well, the CUP demands the immediate implementation of the declaration that proclaims the beginning of the independence process. It's possible that they reach a last hour agreement, as it happened when Artur Mas stepped aside and Carles Puigdemont was appointed in his place. A new election provokes vertigo in all sides involved.

Yesterday in Madrid, Catalonia premier Carles Puigdemont explained his road map in a public act. Puigdemont said that independence process continues "unstoppable", it's not a temporary thing and that "patience is not infinite". Actually, Mr Puigdemont didn't say anything new. He keeps the plan according to which "a new constituent election" will be called "within a reasonable time" ("initially 18 months"). The new parliament, acting on its own behalf, would draft a new constitution for Catalonia. Once the constitution was approved in a referendum, regional government would proclaim independence. Puigdemont assured that the process is not against Spaniards and said that in case it's fulfilled he won't be candidate again. However in the eventuality of a snap election (in case he cannot pass the budget), he would be "forced to run".

As for the Barcelona budget, I was outdated. Earlier this month the CUP reached some agreement with the local government and the abstention of its councilors allowed to pass a budget change.

Meanwhile, in Gràcia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/05/27/inenglish/1464342556_463734.html

Quote
After a fourth night of rioting by squatters who have been evicted from a former bank in the center of Barcelona, Mayor Ada Colau faces her most serious crisis since she was elected a year ago on a popular platform that aimed to address the city’s chronic housing problem.

The violence kicked off on Monday evening after police removed squatters from a former bank branch-turned-community center – renamed Banc Expropiat (The Expropriated Bank) in the Gràcia area in the center of the city (...)

The US State Department has issued a warning to its citizens, telling them to avoid the area in the coming days.

Colau finds herself under fire from all sides: she did not order the eviction, nor did she authorize the squatters to occupy the former bank. On Thursday, she admitted the difficulties she faced in intervening in the standoff, calling on local residents to help mediate, and later meeting with them (...)

Colau's predecessor, former CiU mayor Xavier Trias, is under scrutiny because he paid the rent in order to avoid riots and disturbances (a previous incident in Sants cost him votes in the last local election).

Quote
The squatters have been in the former bank for five years, but in January 2015, in the run-up to elections, and faced with possible disturbances if evictions went ahead, former mayor Xavier Trias signed a secret deal with the bank, agreeing to pay the rent on the premises, along with other costs that amount to around €65,000 a year.

Speaking to the Onda Cero radio station, Trias explained his decision to cover the costs of the squatters with taxpayers money.

“This has to be explained properly. That property belonged to a bank, Catalunya Caixa, and had been occupied by squatters since 2011. The bank did nothing, until in 2014 it sold the property and asked for the people in it to be evicted. The squatters had not caused trouble and were well integrated into the community. We were then told by the police that the building had to be vacated,” said Trias.

“Given the situation, and not just because of the elections, but because an eviction could result in conflict, we decided to mediate. People can criticize what we decided to do, but our decision wasn’t wrong. We needed time to mediate. That’s why we decided to pay the owner rent so as to put off the eviction until a better solution was found,” he explained.

Trias is now being investigated by the police over the deal.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 29, 2016, 12:21:50 PM
The outcome of the June 2016 general election will be decided in a handful of provinces, electoral districts where the last seat was hotly contested in December 2015. 5 or 6 seats moving to the right or the left can alter the balance of forces. Some key districts to watch are: Barcelona, Cádiz, Sevilla, Córdoba, Málaga, Jaén, León, Cantabria, Guadalajara and Albacete.

Metroscopia released today a series of constituency polls, including the four most populated provinces and others considered of strategic value. They are usually of little value, but anyway:

Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla

()

Other key districts

()

The seat total in these 11 constituencies would be:

UP+allies 40-41 (31), PP 37-39 (42), PSOE 30-33 (33), C's 19-22 (21), ERC 4 (5), CDC 3 (4)



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 29, 2016, 12:35:46 PM
I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2016, 02:36:16 PM
It seems Podemos–IU is destined to gain seats even if their vote share stays the same as 2015 mostly because of the combined vote share would push them above the threshold to get seats in several electoral districts and for sure ensure that the 2015 IU vote is not wasted. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 30, 2016, 10:14:15 AM
I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 30, 2016, 10:41:46 AM
prediction: the only thing that will break the deadlock is Rajoy literally being arrested.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 30, 2016, 03:20:23 PM
prediction: the only thing that will break the deadlock is Rajoy literally being arrested.

The arrest of Mr Rajoy is very unlikely; no matter how many high towers fall around him, the man stands undaunted. He knew nothing, he was only passing by... Anyway if it's for the good of the country and to unlock the political situation, I second the motion.

In the news, IU membership gave an overwhelming support (74.7%) to the list topped by Alberto Garzón in a vote held on May 26 and 27. The list supported by the current coordinator (IU's leader) Cayo Lara got 20.8% and the list supported by former coordinator Gaspar Llamazares got 4.6%. Turnout was 40.2%. Garzón will be officially appointed next weekend as the new leader of IU.

Mariano Rajoy keeps his promise of lowering Income Tax, despite the noncompliance of deficit targets.

The PSOE offers a "political agreement" to Catalonia that recognises the "singularity" of the region "preserving the implications of the principle of equality". PSC's secretary general Miquel Iceta praises the "courage" of Pedro Sánchez, who returns the compliment to his Catalan counterpart. Sánchez gives support to Iceta in his opposition to an appeal submitted by PP before the Constitutional Court, in order to suppress some social legislation passed by the Parliament of Catalonia conservatives deem as a "separatist challenge".

A campaign video launched by Ciudadanos caricatures Pablo Iglesias and Podemos supporters as idle people who don't want to make an effort to get Spain back on its feet. A bar client makes an emotional speech criticizing the worthless and egoist elites and praising the heroic common people, then Albert Rivera appears in TV. The video has raised some criticism ("populist", "anti-political rhetoric").

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXZLUrsIda4


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 31, 2016, 06:04:11 AM
I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2016, 11:04:50 AM
MyWord poll

PP 29.2%, UP 24.8%, PSOE 20.7%, C's 14.2%, Others 10.1%

Preferred coalition:

Leftwing government (PSOE and UP) 31.9%, Grand Coalition (PP, PSOE, C's) 24.9%, Cross Coalition (PSOE, C's, UP) 15.9% , Centre-right or rightwing government (PP and C's) 14.1%, don't know / don't answer 13.2%

With whom your party should not make agreements?

Voted PP: Podemos 86.4%, PSOE 14.4%, C's 12.2%, should deal with any of them 2.2%
Voted PSOE: PP 55%, Podemos 33.6%, C's 19.8%, should deal with any of them 14.4%
Voted Podemos: PP 76.7%, C's 47.6%, PSOE 16.9%, should deal with any of them 10.1%
Voted C's: Podemos 64.6%, PP 11.6%, PSOE 10.9%, should deal with any of them 23.1%

Which party has more responsibility in the repetition of the elections?

PSOE 31.1%, PP 26.1%, Podemos 13.1%, C's 2.4%, None 2%, All 16.5%

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2016/05/27/politica/1464368417_454489.html

I can't remember - are UpyD (UtrieD, more like) bothering to run?

It seems that they keep on trying. According to the provisional list of candidacies published by the official gazette, seven parties and coalitions are going to run in all electoral districts: PP, PSOE, UP and allies, C's, PACMA, UPyD and Recortes Cero-Grupo Verde.

Why would not UPyD consider an alliance/joint list with C.  It is clear their votes will be wasted due to threshold effects

When UPyD was something, party leader Rosa Díez rejected offers of electoral coalition from C's. Now Mrs Díez has left the party she founded and is a retired politician, while the remainder of UPyD is a marginal force. Probably people at C's don't even consider the possibility, given that UPyD has little votes to add to such an alliance.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 31, 2016, 05:45:38 PM
It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2016, 07:28:26 PM
It the results matches the current polling I think the result will be a PP minority government with PSOE and C abstaining. There is no way  PSOE plays second fiddle to Podemos.

It's too risky to make predictions, even more when the campaign has still not begun. Allowing PP to govern in minority with Rajoy at the head would be costly for PSOE and Ciudadanos, especially for the socialists. If results match with current polls, the responsibility in making a decision will rest on the PSOE. It's a terrible responsibility, because the future of the party is at stake and the PSOE leadership will be pressed from all sides (party factions and grassroots, other political actors involved, economic and supra-national powers) to make the 'correct' decision. Basically the options are:

a) Grand Coalition (PP-PSOE and eventually C's). The preferred option of the EC, the Troika and the great economic power.

b) Leftwing coalition. In case PSOE and UP reach 170 seats, it would be relatively easy that PNV votes the investiture or abstain. Polls say that UP will get more votes than PSOE, but it's not sure the Podemos-IU alliance is going to win more seats.

c) PP minority government or PP-C's coalition with the abstention of PSOE. This is in all likelihood the preferred option of some socialist 'barons' and old party elephants. Pedro Sánchez would be virtually dead and all eyes will turn to Andalusia premier Susana Díaz.

I think that option b) is very risky and difficult to realize, but options a) and c) are potentially suicidal for the PSOE. What will socialists do once they are at crossroads? Nobody knows, maybe c).

There would be an option d) called "technocratic government", presumably with the same supporting parties and implications of option a).

Keep in mind that among the main obstacles for the materialization of agreements involving PP are the corruption scandals and the acting PM. Right now it's hard to see Rajoy stepping aside for a technocrat or making way for another member of his party, but who knows? Maybe Mr Rajoy would feel vindicated if the result places PP first and go back to Pontevedra, to be replaced by Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría or someone else. That man is hermetic and undecipherable and there is a science that studies the 'Mariano Code' in the style of the old Kremlinology.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on May 31, 2016, 09:15:29 PM
a) would be lethal for PSOE, methinks. I mean, this is not the "normal" left/right relationship, where the two traditional parties may join to fight off the upstarts. For many ancestral PSOE people a government with PP would by High Treason.

b) would be too dangerous.

My bet would be on c) or d).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Diouf on June 01, 2016, 03:16:42 AM
Wouldn't PSOE have the opportunity to just play hardball by basically repeating what they have done this time: make a deal with C's and then try to pressure PP or Podemos into letting them govern?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 01, 2016, 10:13:25 AM
a) would be lethal for PSOE, methinks. I mean, this is not the "normal" left/right relationship, where the two traditional parties may join to fight off the upstarts. For many ancestral PSOE people a government with PP would by High Treason.

b) would be too dangerous.

My bet would be on c) or d).

If the PSOE chooses c), it will have to deal with the stigma of allowing a rightwing government. The credibility of socialists as opposition force will be questioned. Podemos, that is a more dynamic force and the only one that (like it or not, with all its defects and inconsistencies) represents a real change, will take advantage of that.

Option d) would be terrible for the credibility of the democratic system as a whole, in my opinion. Technocratic cabinets in Italy and Greece proved to be a fiasco.

Option b) is risky and requires courage. That is a quality that I fail to see in the PSOE leadership and, in any case, the 'barons' and the 'senate' will hardly allow a coalition with UP. If you take a look at the MyWord poll, you'll see that a leftwing coalition is the preferred option of more than a half of PSOE voters. However, Podemos generates rejection in more than a third of them. It's very difficult to reconcile both tendencies.

Wouldn't PSOE have the opportunity to just play hardball by basically repeating what they have done this time: make a deal with C's and then try to pressure PP or Podemos into letting them govern?

I don't think so. Neither PP nor Podemos will allow to be sidelined. The PSOE-C's agreement was a product of the circumstances. Once Mariano Rajoy renounced to the investiture, Pedro Sánchez (highly contested in the PSOE's federal commission after the bad election results) tried to seize his chance to survive as party leader... and with luck to be elected PM. His main burdens where internal opposition and the menace represented to PSOE's hegemony in the left by the arrogant upstarts of Podemos... not to mention that Catalan separatists would hold the balance of power in case of a leftwing agreement. Given that the federal commission banned in practice the possibility of a deal with Podemos and associates, Sánchez turned his eye to Ciudadanos. The agreement was beneficial for the orange upstarts, because it allowed Albert Rivera to be on the centre of the stage after a disappointing result in the elections which placed C's in a no man's land, without the possibility of becoming in kingmaker. While Pedro Sánchez tried to attract C's to a deal with Podemos (an unlikely 'Cross Coalition'), Albert Rivera stated explicitly that his aim was to add PP to the deal (that is to say, the 'Grand Coalition' disguised as 'reformist pact'). At the end, those manoeuvrings ended in nothing but posturing. PSOE and C's have an implicit nonaggression pact for the upcoming campaign, but their agreement is dead letter.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on June 01, 2016, 10:35:11 AM
Maybe its me but I think I saw this movie before

PP                          = ND
PSOE                     = PASOK
Podemos                = SYRIZA
C                            = DIMAR
IU                          = ANEL ? KKE ? I guess neither fits
May 12 election      = Dec 15 election
June 12 election     = June 16 election

What is similar is not just the parties but the political calculations each actor has seems to be similar as well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on June 01, 2016, 10:50:25 AM
C's is ideologically closer to To Potami tbh.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 01, 2016, 10:54:44 AM
Don't try to make analogies between Spanish and Greek parties. Spain and Greece are different countries and have a very different political culture. Also, in spite of a huge institutional crisis, by no means Spain is a disfunctional state and we're not in a pre-revolutionary phase.

To begin with: there is not a counterpart for the Golden Shower; PSOE is far more resilient than PASOK; IU is not as regressive as KKE or ANEL; and Podemos is not Syriza, although they have certain affinity.

A campaign video launched by Ciudadanos caricatures Pablo Iglesias and Podemos supporters as idle people who don't want to make an effort to get Spain back on its feet. A bar client makes an emotional speech criticizing the worthless and egoist elites and praising the heroic common people, then Albert Rivera appears in TV. The video has raised some criticism ("populist", "anti-political rhetoric").

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXZLUrsIda4

The C's video has provoked a lot of jokes in social networks. For those who can understand Spanish, here's the 'Bolivarian' reply to the C's campaign spot made by La Tuerka News.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgrX8J0qXQY



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 02, 2016, 04:01:15 AM
Don't try to make analogies between Spanish and Greek parties. Spain and Greece are different countries and have a very different political culture. Also, in spite of a huge institutional crisis, by no means Spain is a disfunctional state and we're not in a pre-revolutionary phase.

In fairness To Potami and C's are both the same electoral phenomenon : a party filling a void in the electoral market for a pro-European, pro-liberal, anti-nationalist moderate center in the context of polarization.

You are going to see similar movements in France (Macron's movement), Belgium (Défi), Germany (FDP back in the polls), Austria (NEOS),  and Italy (in power). These Blairite/Tapie social-liberals are a European phenomenon.

If you don't think Spain is in at least a political crisis and at best a constitutional crisis with part of its country unilaterally separating, and as such is incomparable to Greece's economic and political crisis, then I question your authority on the matter. I'd leave it up to political scientists though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 02, 2016, 04:23:50 PM
The success of xenophobic far right is an European phenomenon that has particularities in every country affected by that disease, right? Are you going to say that FN and AfD are the same thing?  There are affinities and resemblances,  but they are different parties whose differential characteristics are the products of a particular national context.

Of course there is a resemblance between To Potami and Ciudadanos, Syriza and Unidos Podemos. Even admitting there's a wave of 'Blairite/Tapie social-liberals' across Europe: Do the origins of C's in Catalonia and its emergence in the Spanish political scene years later tell you anything about the particularity of the 'orange phenomenon' in Spain? Obviously the insurgent parties (Podemos and C's in Spain) have appeared in a context of crisis of representativity and came to fill a void. You could say there's a general phenomenon of crisis of representativity that affects western democracies. Would you say that the response has been the same in all countries? 

I said in my previous post that the Spanish State functions despite it's facing a huge institutional crisis. I don't deny the gravity of the situation in Spain. There is a crisis with multiple faces: economic, constitutional, moral,  existential... What I meant is that, at a basic level of functionality, the state is working: healthcare, education, justice, payment of pensions and so on... Sadly,  in Greece such functionality is on the verge of collapse. Also, Greece has no problems with secessionist regions. To compare crises of different nature (separatism vs economic collapse) sounds to me like apples and oranges. They are different problems, even though there's a connection between the rise of Catalan separatism and economic crisis in Spain, that is not to say that economy is the only causation of separatist feelings. Of course, I never claimed to be an authority. I'm only a person posting in Atlas Forum.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 03, 2016, 02:40:14 AM
The success of xenophobic far right is an European phenomenon that has particularities in every country affected by that disease, right? Are you going to say that FN and AfD are the same thing?  There are affinities and resemblances,  but they are different parties whose differential characteristics are the products of a particular national context.

Their origins are different, but their vote is the same, in terms of demographics and politics. I think this is where we are misunderstood. You are saying that Podemos and Syriza, or FN and AfD, are two different entities because you are defining them according to their origins, national particularities (in terms of policy) and party structure. But I am talking about their voters, which will ultimately determine where they end up as a political force. As an electoral phenomenon, these parties' and their rise have to be put in a European political context, and are therefore comparable.

Quote
Of course there is a resemblance between To Potami and Ciudadanos, Syriza and Unidos Podemos. Even admitting there's a wave of 'Blairite/Tapie social-liberals' across Europe: Do the origins of C's in Catalonia and its emergence in the Spanish political scene years later tell you anything about the particularity of the 'orange phenomenon' in Spain? Obviously the insurgent parties (Podemos and C's in Spain) have appeared in a context of crisis of representativity and came to fill a void. You could say there's a general phenomenon of crisis of representativity that affects western democracies. Would you say that the response has been the same in all countries?

The origins of C's in Catalonia have little to do with their rise overall, apart from their amazing result in the 2015 regional election (due to the particular context). C's were nowhere in the rest of Spain (where they presented lists), a minor party in Catalonia, and on the brink of dissolving or ditching Rivera until they did what all the other social liberal parties did - fill the pro-Europe social liberal void. Their breakthrough came in a European election at the heart of a decade of European decay, on a pro-European, anti-extremist/nationalist platform.

Parties like FDF, D66, and even the FDP were not social liberal parties either, but they all did what C's eventually did, and fill an electoral market void. It just goes to show how the vote defines the party and not the other way round. That's the new democracy we are headed for.


Quote
I said in my previous post that the Spanish State functions despite it's facing a huge institutional crisis. I don't deny the gravity of the situation in Spain. There is a crisis with multiple faces: economic, constitutional, moral,  existential... What I meant is that, at a basic level of functionality, the state is working: healthcare, education, justice, payment of pensions and so on... Sadly,  in Greece such functionality is on the verge of collapse. Also, Greece has no problems with secessionist regions. To compare crises of different nature (separatism vs economic collapse) sounds to me like apples and oranges. They are different problems, even though there's a connection between the rise of Catalan separatism and economic crisis in Spain, that is not to say that economy is the only causation of separatist feelings. Of course, I never claimed to be an authority. I'm only a person posting in Atlas Forum.

It has a similar effect in terms of emergence of populist parties or, in the case of multi-ethnic states, seperatist ones. I understand your point regarding Spain and Greece's different crisis, but I fail to see how that difference is reflected electorally, apart from the rise of Golden Dawn. And I do believe both Spaniards and Greeks externalise their crisees in a European context. The comparison between Greece and Spain, and To Potami and Ciudadanos, is perfectly valid in a European political context.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 03, 2016, 06:57:50 AM
Their origins are different, but their vote is the same, in terms of demographics and politics.

Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Quote
The origins of C's in Catalonia have little to do with their rise overall, apart from their amazing result in the 2015 regional election (due to the particular context). C's were nowhere in the rest of Spain (where they presented lists), a minor party in Catalonia, and on the brink of dissolving or ditching Rivera until they did what all the other social liberal parties did - fill the pro-Europe social liberal void. Their breakthrough came in a European election at the heart of a decade of European decay, on a pro-European, anti-extremist/nationalist platform.

I'm afraid you are mistaken here. In my opinion, it's impossible to explain Ciudadanos (or UPyD, for that matter) without knowing anything about the historical conflicts between the centre and the periphery that are a particular characteristic of Spain. The breakthrough of C's in Catalonia, from a minor single-issue party to become in the first opposition party, is associated with the vicissitudes of the "independence process". In the context of Catalonia, Ciutadans is not a moderate party that fills a void between two extreme poles. The party succeed in the 2015 regional election, whose focal point was the "process" rather than the ideological confrontation, because it was perceived by many voters as the best champion of the "unionist" cause. As for the rest of Spain, Ciudadanos came to fill a void to voters on the centre and the centre-right side of the political spectrum, disillusioned with the political and economic situation as well by corruption scandals in the mainstream parties. Ciudadanos also connects with a segment of the population with more "centralist" leanings, opposed to further regional devolution and/or separatism. The anti-separatist record of C's in Catalonia for sure helped to its rise nationwide. Some elements of the C's discourse may suggest that it has certain characteristics of a "populist" or "catch-all-party". In the graphs posted in the previous page you can see that a majority of the C's voters is ideologically moderate. However, the party has support amongst voters placed in more extreme positions. Maybe that's saying something.

Quote
It has a similar effect in terms of emergence of populist parties or, in the case of multi-ethnic states, seperatist ones. I understand your point regarding Spain and Greece's different crisis, but I fail to see how that difference is reflected electorally, apart from the rise of Golden Dawn. And I do believe both Spaniards and Greeks externalise their crisees in a European context. The comparison between Greece and Spain, and To Potami and Ciudadanos, is perfectly valid in a European political context.

I think that the rise of Golden Dawn in Greece and the absence of a similar phenomenon in Spain is of quite some significance. On the other hand, talking about an "emergence of populist parties" in a generic context says little about the nature of the different "populisms". For instance, Podemos cannot be explained without the emergence of the Indignados movement (that was a Spanish phenomenon, although it had influence in 'Occupy Wall Street' and other similar movements), other civic platforms like the anti-eviction movement led by Ada Colau and certain young professors influenced by sophisticated political theories redefining "populism". I mean, it's a singular phenomenon that can be seen within a wider context but it's not totally comparable or assimilable. The Spanish, the Greek and the rest of Europeans externalise their different crises in multiple ways.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 05, 2016, 07:12:15 AM
Metroscopia / El País

PP 28.5%, UP 25.6%, PSOE 20.2%, C's 16.6%, Others 9.1%

Harsh editorial in El País: "A great sham: the centre-left draws back before the grip of populism and catastrophism"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on June 09, 2016, 06:27:22 AM
CIS poll

PP                29.2%         118-121
PSOE            21.2%           78-80
Podemos-IU  25.6%           88-92
C                  14.6%           38-39


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 09, 2016, 07:37:58 AM
CIS poll

PP                29.2%         118-121
PSOE            21.2%           78-80
Podemos-IU  25.6%           88-92
C                  14.6%           38-39


()

According to CIS, 32.4% is undecided.

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2016/06/09/d36c29f5ed3cf9bfae0f6f5cb8fdee7b.pdf


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 09, 2016, 10:50:51 AM
Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Sticking to Spain in order to not remain off-topic, I wonder if their lack of right-wing populist emergence in industrial declining zones such as East Gemany and Northern France (the FN vote there is different to the Southern FN vote) stems from industrial zones in Spain like Basque Country and Catalonia having left-wing nationalist movements to ''counter'' globalisation in a different way. Wallonia is another region without a far right and this is due to a more effective brand of leftism/alter-globalism.

Does Asturias, a region with historically few nationalist parties apart from Foro (allied to PP), have a right-wing populist turn?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 09, 2016, 09:27:03 PM
Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Sticking to Spain in order to not remain off-topic, I wonder if their lack of right-wing populist emergence in industrial declining zones such as East Gemany and Northern France (the FN vote there is different to the Southern FN vote) stems from industrial zones in Spain like Basque Country and Catalonia having left-wing nationalist movements to ''counter'' globalisation in a different way. Wallonia is another region without a far right and this is due to a more effective brand of leftism/alter-globalism.

Yes it's a good point, the North of France and the East of Germany share in common industrial decline. As for Basque Country and Catalonia, Bildu and the CUP represent another type of response to globalization. Plataforma per Catalunya, that is an anti-islamic and xenophobic party, had some support in Metropolitan Barcelona and other municipalities of Catalonia. It's the party more similar to FN and others in the like.

Does Asturias, a region with historically few nationalist parties apart from Foro (allied to PP), have a right-wing populist turn?

Actually the Foro has elements of rightwing populism, as well of caudillismo. It was the personal vehicle of a PP dissident called Francisco Álvarez Cascos. Anyway, the Foro support has declined and there's not a turn in that direction right now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on June 09, 2016, 10:05:39 PM
Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Vosem on June 09, 2016, 10:31:06 PM
I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 10, 2016, 04:35:44 AM
I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.

PP seems to be what we call in French a ''decomplexed'' Right. Its true that Allianza Popular was a party born out of a think-tank that wanted to pursue Francoism (or, more precisely its ideological tenets) through democratic means, and Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum. But now PP appears to be a catch all Right party from the centre to the extreme.

Sarkozy was also billed as the decomplexed Right in France. In 2007 he managed to destroy the FN vote. So your theory might hold up if we applied this to Spain too. Certainly PP do their best to appeal to that section of society while remaining in the European People's Party framework of a good centre-right conservative.  

Last right-wing populist party in Spain that I heard of was Vox. I think it was a breakaway from PP due to personal disagreements, and didn't gain much traction.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 10, 2016, 05:27:10 AM
Well a lot of that could be applied to the LDP in Japan or ND in Greece, and right-wing populism still exists outside those parties.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 10, 2016, 11:41:40 AM
Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.

PP seems to be what we call in French a ''decomplexed'' Right. Its true that Allianza Popular was a party born out of a think-tank that wanted to pursue Francoism (or, more precisely its ideological tenets) through democratic means, and Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum. But now PP appears to be a catch all Right party from the centre to the extreme.

Sarkozy was also billed as the decomplexed Right in France. In 2007 he managed to destroy the FN vote. So your theory might hold up if we applied this to Spain too. Certainly PP do their best to appeal to that section of society while remaining in the European People's Party framework of a good centre-right conservative. 

Last right-wing populist party in Spain that I heard of was Vox. I think it was a breakaway from PP due to personal disagreements, and didn't gain much traction.

Well, the concept of a right "without complexes" was used by PP in the 90s (if I'm not wrong). However, there wasn't a FN to destroy. By that time José María Aznar had replaced Manuel Fraga in the leadership of the Spanish Right. Fraga was the leader of the former Alianza Popular (AP), which was founded by him together with other members of late Franco cabinets whom where known as Los Siete Magníficos ("The Magnificent Seven"). Initially AP represented a certain attempt of preservation of the Francoist essences by democratic means. The more reformist faction of late Francoism assembled in the UCD alongside with moderate opposition factions. Further to the right the 'true defenders' of the Franco regime's essences gathered in Fuerza Nueva ("New Force", FN), which had a very limited support. So perhaps we could say that FN was the 'outright fascist' party and AP a very conservative one. Between 1977 and 1982 AP was a minor party that represented what was called the "Sociological Francoism". From that year on, AP took advantage of the UCD collapse to expand its base to the centre. However, AP was unable to counter PSOE's hegemony in the 80s. The past of Manuel Fraga, who had styled himself to stances more comparable to classic European conservatism, was always considered a burden. It was said that AP had a glass ceiling or, to be more precise, the expression used was "Fraga's ceiling". Fraga was replaced in 1987 by a certain Antonio Hernández Mancha, who was quite unsuccessful. After a period of internal crisis, Fraga came back provisionally to refund the party in 1989, which was renamed Partido Popular. The Spanish Wikipedia says that the new PP strengthened its neoliberal traits, cutting to some extent its conservative ones. Maybe. In any case, new leader José María Aznar (1990-2004) had the advantage of being younger than Fraga. Despite being a very conservative individual with certain authoritarian tendencies, Aznar was finally successful in giving a more moderate image of PP in the 90s, expanding the party's base more to the centre while the remainders of Spanish Centrism (the Adolfo Suárez's CDS) vanished. In that period PP became in a party that encompassed all the political spectrum from the centre to the far right. The drive of PP between 1996 and 2011 would require a longer explanation. In any case, the recent period of crisis has eroded much of the PP centrist base.

On a brief note, Vox was a rightwing splinter of PP founded by party dissidents whom considered that it was way too centrist in matters like anti-terrorist (ETA) and social policies (abortion, homosexuality, etc). The party was pro-EU and had neoliberal stances on economy, so it's not fully comparable to other European rightwing populist parties. In the Andalusian campaign of 2015 Vox played the anti-islamic card, proclaiming that the left wanted to reestablish the Califate in Córdoba. As for the attempts to assemble a rightwing populist force in Spain, we could continue later.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Angel of Death on June 10, 2016, 03:31:55 PM
Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum.

There was a referendum in 1976 and one in 1978, but none in 1977.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 10, 2016, 04:28:21 PM
Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum.

There was a referendum in 1976 and one in 1978, but none in 1977.

78


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 11, 2016, 10:13:01 AM
General election poll for Catalonia (Total: 47 seats)

GESOP / El Periódico

En Comú Podem 27% (13 seats), PSC 16% (8 seats), ERC 15.7% (8-9 seats), C's 14.7% (7 seats), CDC 11.4% (5-6 seats), PP 10.9% (4-5 seats)

The CIS survey estimates: ECP 14-15 seats, ERC 8-9 seats, PSC 8 seats, CDC 6-7 seats, C's 5 seats, PP 4-5 seats



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 11, 2016, 12:58:52 PM
Podemos wanted its manifesto to be the "the most-ever read ever" and has chosen the Ikea catalogue format. "Flat-pack policies", says The Grauniad

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/09/podemos-manifesto-ikea-catalogue-flat-pack-policies

Quote
In a rare touch of humour in the dour world of Spanish politics, the anti-austerity party Podemos has published its manifesto in the style of the Ikea catalogue.

As in the Swedish furniture catalogue, the manifesto is organised on a room-by-room basis, with candidates pictured at home in the kitchen, on the sofa, in the garden or working at their desks looking homely and approachable.

The party leader, Pablo Iglesias, is featured looking pensive on his balcony, working at a table in a sparsely furnished room and watering a solitary ivy plant. His second-in-command, Íñigo Errejón, is pictured busy with documents and relaxing with a book (...)

Past week it was launched a documentary film telling the story of Podemos from the foundational assembly in October 2014 to the general elections in December 2015 called Política, Manual de Instrucciones ("Politics, Operating Manual"). Director Fernando León de Aranoa was permitted to film behind the scenes, and the documentary shows lively discussions in party leadership as well more relaxed moments in what El Confidencial calls "organic dissection". Film reviews remark the appearances of second-in-command Ïñigo Errejón, who shows himself an agile and acute analyst.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ_yv2bqqGo


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 12, 2016, 10:38:46 AM
More polls

Metroscopia / El País

PP 28.9%, UP 25.4%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 15.9%, Others 9%

Netquest / El Español

PP 28.8%, UP 24.7%, PSOE 21%, C's 15.8%, Others 9.7%

Seats (projection): PP 117, UP 87, PSOE 78, C's 45, Others 23

GAD3/ La Vanguardia

PP 29.8%, UP 24.3%, PSOE 21.4%, C's 14.9%, ERC 2.4%, CDC 1.8%, EAJ-PNV 1.2%, EH Bildu 0.9%, CC 0.3%

Seats: PP 119-122, UP 85-87, PSOE 80-82, C's 40-41, ERC 8-9, CDC 6-7, EAJ-PNV 5, EH Bildu 2, CC 0-1


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2016, 07:01:07 AM
Given that this is a key aspect in the present political situation, I made an attempt to translate an Enric Juliana article entitled "the generational gap feeds political uncertainty in Spain" 

Spain lives as no other European country through a strong generational split, fed by the way how the economic crisis has been managed. The strongest duality on the labor market and scanty opportunities for new university licentiates. Continuity of a youth unemployment above 40 %. Precarious employment situation is feeding a strong political mobilization of electors educated and trained after the death of the general Franco: more than twelve million persons, 36 % of the electoral census. The pit is of impressive dimensions and its depth goes in increase. If next June 26 only there were voting the younger than 40, Unidos Podemos would win the elections.

The generational matter is very present today in almost all European countries. The victory of  Brexit in June 23 referendum there is in the hands of the older generations isolationist impulse, still brushed by the echoes of the Second World War. They believe they will age better in an encapsulated country and are very sensitive to anti-German arguments. " Our parents did not wage a war to end in a Germanized Europe ". If it was depending on the younger, the continuity of the United Kingdom in the European Union would be guaranteed. British young people want to have the opportunity to be employed freely in Frankfurt or Paris.

In France young people is shifting again to the left and can torn PS to pieces before the push of the FN, which clots the disaffected of older age. In Italy the generational matter explains Matteo Renzi's meteoric ascent and also his present problems. The PM overcame the PD's old guard under the motto of rottamazione (scrapping). Renzi was promising to dismantle the old ruling class making way for the new generations in a country considerably gerontocratic. Reforms always are difficult and the more dissatisfied young people vote now for the 5 Stars Movement. The Grillini are on the verge of winning the mayoralty of Rome with the support of the young vote. In Portugal youth anger precipitated in October the misfortune of the Pedro Passos Coelho conservative government. Intergenerational tension is a constant in Europe, but Spain is the only country that has seen to emerge, with vigour, two new parties with a strong generational bias.

PP is the undisputed leader among the older than 65, people without studies or only with primary education, as well among small town residents. (With the exception of Andalusia, where people with these profiles vote mainly for the PSOE). Unidos Podemos has a clear lead among voters between 18 and 34, with higher studies and residence in cities over 500k inhabitants. The PSOE comes behind PP as the preferred party for pensioners and electors with poor education. Ciudadanos is not the first party among the younger, but is the favourite one for people between 35 and 44. It scores well among university graduates and workers who had completed vocational training. That say the CIS statistic tables.

PP is the party of pensioners, followed by PSOE. Unidos Podemos spearheads the young tide, flanked by Ciudadanos. The camps are defined and the demographic weight of people above 45 wins (60% of the electoral census).

With serious problems to connect with the older, Podemos has made its first campaign video with elderly people who say not being afraid of a drastic change. The argument put forward is that "the same of always don't win". Mariano Rajoy counts with Andrea Levy and Pablo Casado to address the younger. The PSOE tries to look after female public, its main strong point in the last decade. Ciudadanos keeps the veto to Rajoy, thinking in its older youths that want change.


http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160613/402463316281/la-escision-generacional-alimenta-la-incertidumbre-politica-de-espana.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2016, 01:58:39 PM
A televised debate takes place tonight (22:00 CET) between candidates Mariano Rajoy (PP), Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Iglesias (UP) and Albert Rivera (C's).

Live coverage in Spanish

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/06/13/actualidad/1465805590_848142.html

Yesterday took place an economy debate between acting minister Luis de Guindos (PP), Jordi Sevilla (PSOE), Alberto Garzón (UP) and Luis Garicano (C's)

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/762-160613002015-spanish-parties-clash-on-pensions-unemployment-and-taxes-in-election-economy-debate

Quote
Spain's interim Economy Minister, Luis de Guindos (Popular Party) and three possible rivals for the post after the June 26 general election clashed on La Sexta on Sunday evening over the situation of the Spanish economy and their favoured solutions.

The frequently heated debate saw no clear winner or loser, in rhetorical terms (...)

Other sources say that De Guindos and Garzón were slightly better than Sevilla and Garicano, although without a clear winner.

A "women's debate" (I think it's a tad sexist treating women as a minority when they are more than a half of humankind) took place on June 9 between Andrea Levy (PP), Margarita Robles (PSOE), Carolina Bescansa (UP) and Inés Arrimadas (C's). In this debate the mutual accusations between Levy and Robles would have benefitted Bescansa and Arrimadas, according to media reports. Levy is a promising young politician and member of the Parliament of Catalonia who was promoted by Rajoy to the PP national executive committee; Robles is a veteran judge and former secretary of state who runs in second place for Madrid in the PSOE list; Bescansa is the number 2 in the UP list for Madrid as well she's sociologist, electoral analyst and Pablo Iglesias' top aide; Arrimadas was the C's candidate in the Catalan elections of 2015 is the leader of the opposition in Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 14, 2016, 05:14:30 AM
No clear winner in tonight's debate. Actually it was a pretty boring spectacle (except when candidates discussed corruption) and far less dynamic than the debate held in December. In that occasion Mariano Rajoy refused to attend and sent Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría.

"Four-way debate suggests little change to Spain’s post-election landscape" says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/14/inenglish/1465892738_757804.html

Quote
The economic policies and corruption scandals of the eight (four and a half) years of acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration came under a sustained three-pronged attack during Monday evening’s televised debate between the leaders of Spain’s four main parties.

Reflecting the political shift Spain has undergone in recent years, the debate was the first to put Podemos and Ciudadanos on the same footing as the Popular Party (PP) and the Socialists (PSOE), who between them have dominated politics for the last four decades.

Over the course of the two-hour exchange, which will be the only four-way debate in the run-up to the June 26 elections, Socialist Party leader Pedro Sánchez, Pablo Iglesias of Unidos Podemos and Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos spent most of their time criticizing Rajoy’s austerity policies and his government’s failure to kickstart Spain’s economy after two (one) term(s) in office.

They also highlighted the numerous corruption cases that have rocked the PP in recent years (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 14, 2016, 09:13:46 PM
GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

PP 28% (113-117 seats), UP 24.9% (86-90), PSOE 21% (80-84), C's 14.9% (38-42), Others 11.2% (22-25)

An estimation made by Kiko Llaneras in El Español (updated on June 14) based on his analysis of published polls says that no block will get a majority and the balance of forces would be very similar to that of the December election. UP and PSOE have a 40% probability of reaching 170 seats; PP and C's have a 29% probability of reaching the same figure.

PP 119 seats, UP 87, PSOE 78, C's 42, Others 24 (ERC 9, CDC 7, EAJ-PNV 5, EH Bildu 2, CC 1)

Link to English version:

http://datos.elespanol.com/elecciones-generales/la-cocina-26j/en/

There is an interesting interview in English language with Llaneras ("The Spanish Nate Silver") in The Spain Report, where he talks about the quality of Spanish pollsters, the design of the Spanish electoral system and other issues.

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/755-160605132019-unidos-podemos-can-win-seats-in-almost-every-province-says-spain-s-nate-silver-kiko-llaneras

Also in that site, interviews with veteran pollster Jaime Miquel and British writer Paul Mason. Miquel says, among other things, that Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau could be the PM of a pluri-national Spain by 2018. I think he has some points, but some of his theories sound to me lacking of subtlety and a bit extravagant. Mason talks about what really happened with Tsipras and Syriza in Greece, the threat to the Hellenic Republic from Turkey, Russia and the Islamic State and other fascinating affairs. The former economic editor of Channel 4 and author of  Postcapitalism: A Guide To Our Future thinks that the Spanish Left has a chance to do "Syriza 2.0".

https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/745-160529150045-spanish-left-has-a-chance-to-do-syriza-2-0-at-general-election-says-british-writer-paul-mason

Maybe or maybe not. Prestigious journalist Iñaki Gabilondo, who is a reference person for the Spanish socialdemocracy, says in his last video column that PSOE must be obliged to choose between guillotine and electric chair. It's a great dilemma and the party's internal division doesn't help at all.

Susana Díaz and her Andalusian clique have damaged the PSOE. From the day after the December elections Díaz and the 'barons' achieved that the narrative put socialists as losers by attacking Pedro Sánchez. Díaz is a conservative socialist that has appeal amongst the rural population in Andalusia, but she's not a candidate with the skills to fight for the lost young and urban vote, particularly when former Andalusian premiers Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán are under investigation. Pedro Sánchez is neither brilliant nor incompetent as political leader; he tries to survive, but he's surrounded by enemies and some people in his entourage is remarkably mediocre. He would like to be like Renzi, just like Albert Rivera. In Asturias, a region with little demographic weight but of symbolic importance for the workers movement, the relationship between the PSOE and Podemos is particularly bad. The PSOE regional leader Javier Fernández is a moral reference for his party. Before the threat of being passed by Unidos Podemos he claims: "¡No pasarán!" "Remember the words at the gates of Dante's Inferno: Lose all hope. PSOE is not PASOK!"  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 15, 2016, 06:24:43 AM
A Celeste-Tel poll released by eldiario.es this morning predicts that PSOE has chances of winning more parliamentary seats than Unidos Podemos. This pollster is showing the most favourable estimations for the socialists.

PP 29.8% (121-126 seats), UP 24.9% (80-84), PSOE 22% (83-86), C's 13.8% (35-36), Others 9.1% (23-24)*

* ERC 2.4% (8 seats), CDC 1.7% (6-7), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (6), EH Bildu 0.8% (2), CC 0.3% (1)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 16, 2016, 08:49:04 AM
Candidates ignoring effects of Brexit on Spain

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/16/inenglish/1466072086_853835.html?rel=cx_articulo#cxrecs_s

Quote
The main candidates to the Spanish general election of June 26 all share a desire for Britain to remain within the European Union.

But beyond their generic statements against a Brexit, none of them has made any significant contribution to the public debate over the repercussions that such a move might have for Spain(...)
“Spain’s own country-project has always walked hand-in-hand with European integration ever since the transition to democracy,” writes Salvador Llaudes, a researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano think tank. “Out of pure logic, any risk to the common project – and Brexit certainly is – would entail a risk to Spain.”

To this must be added the fact that trade relations with the UK represent nearly €55 billion for Spain, and that more than 700 companies with British capital are established on Spanish territory (and there are over 300 Spanish companies in the British Isles).

Meanwhile, 15 million British tourists visit Spain each year. It is to be expected that a depreciated pound would make their travel plans more expensive. There are also over 300,000 British expats officially living in Spain, while over 200,000 Spaniards currently reside in Britain. All of these individuals are concerned that a Brexit would affect their eligibility for social services in their host country.

And last but not least, the question of Gibraltar would be more difficult to resolve outside the collaborative framework of the European Union.

Actually all the candidates have analysed the possible repercussions, but they have not taken his concerns to the public arena.

Quote
Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the Popular Party (PP) was crystal clear on Wednesday: “A Brexit would be catastrophic for the Spanish stock market and for all stock markets. For the British economy and for all European economies. I think it would be the worst possible news in many years, in economic terms, and I hope that British citizens will finally vote to remain in Europe, among other things because we Europeans want them to stay.”

Socialist Party sources say that Pedro Sánchez, their nominee, constantly mentions Brexit in his meetings with his expert committee. This and the refugee crisis “are the two issues that confirm the weakness of the European project, understood in its origin as a space for cooperation and shared values.”

Sánchez said in a television interview on Wednesday that “if the Brexit option wins, we Socialists will team up with other European social democrats to relaunch a European project that will allow us to continue progressing toward a Europe that is stronger, more united, more prosperous and more social.”

Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera, the candidate who tends to incorporate more European issues into the public debate, said that “we need to make the most of the European crisis to restart Europe.”

“If we remain stuck and scared to death, there will be a fragile government and fragile institutions, and the exact same thing is happening in Europe,” he said in Madrid on Tuesday.

But if anyone is showing concern, that is Unidos Podemos, the alliance made up of the anti-austerity Podemos and the hard-left federation Izquierda Unida (United Left). This new coalition includes one member, the Spanish Communist Party, which openly supports a Spanish exit from the EU and “recovering economic sovereignty.”

But Podemos is making efforts to showcase that it does not agree with this point, and that it opposes Brexit as well. In fact, they are the only Spanish party that sent a member to Britain to actively campaign for Remain.

Although no Spanish party will deny that a Brexit poses a serious threat to the future of the EU, few are paying close attention to a country with a parliamentary monarchy like Spain’s, with a territorial structure not unlike Spain’s, with a similar production model based heavily on the financial sector, and with similar problems with breakaway regions. Scotland is already threatening with a second independence vote if Britain exits the EU, and that would give renewed energy to pro-independence movements like the one in Catalonia.

On a side note, IU's stance is that Spain should leave because the European Union is a neoliberal project and is unreformable. The Unidos Podemos platform does not include this and other IU stances on issues like NATO membership and monarchy. The Catalan secessionist movement is mainly Pro-EU, with the exception of the anti-capitalist CUP. However, they are looking at Britain with some excitement because they think Brexit could boost the somewhat stalled and confusing independence "process". Last news say that after the CUP rejected in regional parliament the budget plan submitted by the Puigdemont government, Catalan premier announced he will call a motion of confidence after summer holidays.

Here's an interview with Pablo Iglesias in El País.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/14/inenglish/1465897947_663542.html

Among other things, Iglesias talks about his role in Podemos (he thinks the party can survive without his charismatic figure), the relationship with PSOE and the new socialdemocratic space that has to be built... and Venezuela. His opinion of Rajoy: "He is a sarcastic guy who performs well at the podium and I think he’s got a lot of experience".

Inexplicably, the English version cuts some questions and replies on the political differences between Iglesias and Errejón, as well one question asking if Podemos has Peronist traits. Iglesias replies: "I would say that yes, Podemos has Peronist traits. Surely the reading that Gramsci makes of Italian Mezzogiorno is something that teaches Ernesto Laclau, intellectual father of Errejón, to comprehend Argentina. And it's necessary to add to this construction the experience of television as producer of common sense. Podemos cannot be explained without the television, but is not only explained by television". At the end, all of us will be Peronists ;D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 18, 2016, 10:54:12 AM
Campaign news.

Mariano Rajoy calls to concentrate the "moderate" vote, because if forces are divided "the bad" (Unidos Podemos) will take advantage. C's leader Albert Rivera stated that in neither case he will support a government presided by Rajoy because the acting PM is an obstacle for the regeneration of the institutions (PP is under investigation for illegal funding and Rajoy appears in Bárcenas papers). Rivera's aide and candidate for Barcelona Juan Carlos Girauta extended the veto to Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría and other close collaborators of Rajoy. Apparently Ciudadanos find more palatable people like the Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes or the PP's young pup Pablo Casado. In order to prevent that "moderates" go back to PP, the second line of attack is Unidos Podemos. Along these lines, Rivera travelled to Venezuela in the beginning pf the campaign and makes constant calls to "stop populism".

Pablo Iglesias, on his part, stated in a radio interview that he considers Zapatero the best PM since 1977 and calls him occasionally for advice (which is true) in a clear attempt to puzzle socialists. The vindication of the former PM (who Iglesias has criticized for giving way to pressure from the Troika in May 2010) and the claim that Unidos Podemos represents a new form of socialdemocracy have the purpose of attracting more PSOE voters. Both Rivera and Iglesias are pressuring Pedro Sánchez in order that the PSOE candidate says with whom he's going to deal: PP or Unidos Podemos. The latter and El Mundo claim that PSOE "moderates" would be favourable of letting PP govern in case conservatives come first and PSOE is relegated to third place. In that eventuality is very likely that Pedro Sánchez's head will roll, but Mariano Rajoy would have to step down as well to make a deal between PP and PSOE acceptable for the latter.

PSOE is becoming embroiled with Catalonia again. While Pedro Sánchez is proposing a "political agreement" with Catalonia that recognizes its "singularity", Susana Díaz is campaigning in Andalusia claiming that she won't permit that region gets more "privileges" (as well she's attacking Podemos and its Catalan franchise led by Ada Colau). PSOE top candidate in Barcelona Meritxell Batet, who stated that the socialist platform is more close to Unidos Podemos than to C's, is not very happy with Susana Díaz.

Latest results of daily trackings released by El Periódico (GESOP) and eldiario.es (Celeste-Tel)

GESOP

PP 28.3% (114-118 seats), UP 24.2% (84-88), PSOE 21.2% (80-84), C's 15.6% (40-44), Others 10.7% (22-25)

Celeste-Tel

PP 30% (123-128 seats), UP 24.8% (82-87), PSOE 21.5% (83-86), C's 13.4% (32-34), Others 9.4% (22)*

* ERC 2.4% (8 seats), CDC 1.7% (6), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (5), EH Bildu 0.8% (2), CC 0.3% (1)

Another couple of polls

DYM / El Confidencial

PP 29% (116-117), UP 24.9% (85-89), PSOE 21% (81-82), C's 15.2% (40), Others 9.9% (25-27)*

* ERC 9-10, CDC 8, EAJ-PNV 5-6, EH Bildu 2, CC 1

Metroscopia / El País

PP 29% (114), UP 26% (93), PSOE 20.5% (82), C's 14.5% (39), Others 10% (22)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zanas on June 18, 2016, 02:01:55 PM
The general trend seems to be UP opening a real gap ahead of PSOE, and slowly closing in on PP, while probably ending a bit too short. And C's are in danger of not even getting the 13.9 they got last time, and even if they do it won't matter cause the blocs above are bigger and this means fewer seats for them anyway.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: MaxQue on June 18, 2016, 11:43:36 PM
PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

Susana Diez and her ilk are the reason why left-wing parties are in bad shape in Europe. Because of people like her. Honestly, real left-wingers should vote PP in the next Andalousia elections, so she just disappear.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 19, 2016, 08:44:30 AM
The general trend seems to be UP opening a real gap ahead of PSOE, and slowly closing in on PP, while probably ending a bit too short. And C's are in danger of not even getting the 13.9 they got last time, and even if they do it won't matter cause the blocs above are bigger and this means fewer seats for them anyway.

Apparently that's the trend in some polls. It's clear that the alliance between Podemos and IU is beneficial for them in terms of parliamentary seats. However, a Netquest poll released two days ago by El Español says that conservatives take a clear lead. PP and C's would have more probability of reaching 170 seats than UP and PSOE (40% to 30%):

PP 30.4% (125), UP 24% (85), PSOE 20.4% (75), C's 15.2% (42), Others 10% (23)

In contrast a Sondaxe poll released yesterday by La Voz de Galicia predicts that the left is on the verge of a majority and C's will perform badly:

PP 29.2% (121), UP 26.1% (90), PSOE 21.4% (85), C's 12.9% (34), Others 10.4% (20)

Today's Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo estimates a virtual tie between the left and the right blocks. Given that this pollster has a slight PP bias, maybe blues won't reach 30%. Caution: there's one week left and unpredictable turns can happen.

PP 30.5% (124-129), UP 24.8% (86-92), PSOE 20% (73-78), C's 14.1% (35-40), Others 10.6% (19.24)

At the end a few thousand votes swinging to one party or block to another in the key provinces will decide the outcome. In fact there is not a single election but 52 different elections (one for every district).

La Vanguardia releases a GAD3 poll for the general election in Catalonia:

En Comú Podem 28.4% (13-14 seats), ERC 15.7% (8-9), PSC-PSOE 15.1% (7-8), C's 13.2% (5-6), CDC 12.1% (6-7), PP 11.8% (5-6)

According to GAD3 75.4% is in favour of a referendum to decide the future of Catalonia. 48% would vote in favour of independence, but only 26% prefers that option to a constitutional reform. More than 65% think that the Catalan and the Spanish governments should engage a negotiation, even if that implies to park the independence demand. 44% of ERC voters and 70% of CDC voters would be in favour of a 'pragmatic' solution that strengthens self-government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 19, 2016, 08:58:43 AM
PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 19, 2016, 09:23:13 AM
()

Leading party by province in the December 2015 general election. Circles represent the 52 most populous municipalities of Spain.

El Mundo has an interesting series depicting four municipalities that are strongholds of every one of the main parties. Articles are in Spanish, but every one features nice maps that show party results at municipal level.

Lalín: The PP's "Kilometre Zero". Located in central Galicia (Pontevedra province). PP got 68.46% in 2011 and 52.39% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/16/57601f57e5fdea9f618b459e.html

Almonte: The PSOE's haven. Located in Western Andalusia (Huelva province). PSOE got 44.17% in 2011 and 45.65% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/15/575fe682268e3e024b8b4647.html

Ripollet: The Pablo Iglesias' 'purple belt'. Located in Metropolitan Barcelona. Former PSC stronghold. Working class. Podemos got 36.15% in 2015. PSC got 35.48% in 2011 and 20.06% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/18/576295f0268e3e79748b4646.html

Arroyomolinos: Orange vote on blue background. Located in the Madrid region. Former PP stronghold. Young middle class families. C's got 31.67% in 2015. PP got 55.31% in 2011 and 29.03% in 2015.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/06/17/57626c7a268e3e7a748b4607.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 19, 2016, 01:35:38 PM
Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zanas on June 19, 2016, 01:41:25 PM
Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?
Well it's the next city on the road after Vallecas, which has always been an organized labor stronghold, and also 3/4 of the city seem to be ecologically protected areas, so I guess it's the kind of mushroom suburb that will attract more bobo affluent eco-freindly families than suburbs like Majadahonda or Pozuelo de Alarcon in the West of the agglomeration.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Simfan34 on June 19, 2016, 02:24:09 PM
PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.

...which is?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 19, 2016, 02:36:34 PM
How long till the PSOE does the honest thing and renames itself the Country Party?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 19, 2016, 03:25:00 PM
Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?
Well it's the next city on the road after Vallecas, which has always been an organized labor stronghold, and also 3/4 of the city seem to be ecologically protected areas, so I guess it's the kind of mushroom suburb that will attract more bobo affluent eco-freindly families than suburbs like Majadahonda or Pozuelo de Alarcon in the West of the agglomeration.

Not quite. Rivas was largely built by housing cooperatives aligned with CCOO and UGT (Spain's main union, associated to the PCE and the PSOE respectively) in the 1990s and as a result, this has resulted in a very left-wing environment. Obviously the closeness to Madrid, the rise of single-family homes and the dominance of the left in the city means that it has attracted, as you say, bobo-style dwellers.

From what I understand however, it is a rather different kind of left (more ecological, social) than the one you find in the red belt south of Madrid (Getafe, Leganes, Parla, etc.).

How long till the PSOE does the honest thing and renames itself the Country Party?

Never? The PP is the real countryside party (also 65+ and uneducated people), the PSOE is more of a 'Southern (Andalucia+Extremadura) Party', even if it's weak in the Andalucian cities (usually, with the exception of Sevilla and Córdoba, all right-wing)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 19, 2016, 07:09:34 PM
PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.

...which is?

PP resists because is the only party that represents certain conservative segments of the population (rich, elderly, people fearful of change that likes order), but is in a bad way because society has present corruption scandals and other affairs. Younger people leaning to the right but wanting change hesitate between C's and PP. Spanish conservatives should better clean and convert their house, because nobody knows if new threats are looming on the horizon (in the form of rightwing populism, for instance).

As for the PSOE, under Susana Díaz they are at risk of becoming in the "Southern Country Party" (a trend that has already begun). That woman does not represent any kind of renewal, IMO. She has grown in a party's culture that believes in the supremacy of the apparatus. However Mrs Díaz is very ambitious and has a remarkable vigour, so she must not be understated. Given its territorial implementation and structure, it's unlikely that PSOE becomes in PASOK... but it would become in a party that complements majorities, instead of a party that leads governments. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 19, 2016, 07:38:24 PM
Have any trade unions defected from PSOE to podemos?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 20, 2016, 10:55:25 AM
Have any trade unions defected from PSOE to podemos?

No. There was an attempt to create a trade union close to Podemos (Somos), but apparently it has been unsuccessful. The two main trade unions in Spain are Comisiones Obreras (CCOO, Workers' Commissions) and the Unión General de Trabajadores (UGT, General Union of Workers). CCOO was founded in 1962 under the Franco regime and was initially associated with the PCE, but among its founding groups there were progressive catholic associations known generically as "Grassroots Christians". It was always organically independent from the Communist Party, which lost influence in the trade union during the 80s in parallel with its electoral decadence. Currently there is a left wing in CCOO linked to the PCE, which is the main opposition to the trade union leadership. The UGT was founded in 1888 by Pablo Iglesias Posse (not to be confused with the Podemos leader), nine years after the foundation of PSOE. During the first years Iglesias Posse was the leader of both organisations; being an UGT member implied an affiliation to the PSOE and vice versa. However, from my understanding PSOE and UGT never had an organic relationship similar to that between Labour and the British trade unions. Such relationship was rather built under the principles of autonomy and cooperation. During the 80s an increasing confrontation between UGT historical leader Nicolás Redondo and former PM Felipe González reached a climax in the 1988 general strike. Later Cándido Méndez, who replaced Nicolás Redondo, had a much friendlier relationship with Zapatero. In that period it was discussed the possibility of reestablishing certain organic ties.

Anyway the Spanish trade unions have lost much influence, partly due to their own faults (excessive bureaucratization) and partly because of economic processes, the increasing duality of the Spanish labour market and legislation that limits collective bargaining. Trade unions mainly represent workers with permanent contracts and they have failed to address unemployed workers or people with precarious contracts. Keep in mind that much of the Podemos voter base is under 35 and that age group is particularly affected by unemployment and precarious labour conditions.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 21, 2016, 04:22:04 AM
Mariano Rajoy is campaigning in Andalusia, where PP aspires to first place and according to polls is contesting a handful of seats with UP by narrow margins. The conservative leader called again to concentrate the "moderate" vote that wants "certainty" and "safety" in order to follow "the path of recovery and job creation" and counter "the coalition of communists and extremists" that this time are running together. Rajoy went as far as to suggest that UP could win the elections in a rally held in Málaga. "I ask C's voters to not waste their ballots", said Mr Rajoy. PP estimates that Ciudadanos has nothing to do in 25 provinces and argues that voting orange in them could help Pablo Iglesias. C's leader Albert Rivera replies from Vigo saying that voting for the old parties is useless. "Don't waste our votes with parties that put high offices first". Rivera proposed a consensus PM that is not one of the four candidates contesting this election. One could say that oranges are proposing a Monti. C's leaders indicate that if they get an additional 2% of the vote they could win 10 or 15 seats at the expense of UP.

Pablo Iglesias asks the left to vote for UP.  Íñigo Errejón considers a success that the strategy of the rest of parties orbits around Podemos. The goal is offering a hand to PSOE and demonstrate that every seat UP gains at the expense of PP in the smaller constituencies is a guarantee for a progressive government. The overwhelmed PSOE tries to prevent being passed by UP. Pedro Sánchez affirms that he won't support Rajoy or Iglesias. Rejecting Rajoy leaves other possibilities open. By rejecting Iglesias he's saying that voting UP is not an incentive for a leftwing agreement. In short: in case the PSOE is passed Iglesias won't be PM; in case PSOE holds the second place Sánchez will demand the UP support.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 21, 2016, 07:35:21 AM
The Andorra Fruit Market has reopened. First data say that the price of Water would be 29 EUR per litre, with a purchase forecast estimated between 116 and 120 units. Grapes are sold for 23.7 EUR per kilo and the purchase forecast oscillates between 83 and 87 units. Strawberries are slightly cheaper (21.5 EUR) and between 82 and 86 units are expected to be purchased. Finally, the price of Oranges is 14.9 EUR per kilo and the purchase forecast is between 38 and 42 units.

Other market analyses estimate that a "realistic" purchase forecast for purple grapes would be around 85 units, but demand would eventually increase to approx 93 units. It would depend on the oscillations in other local markets like Tarragona, Murcia, Castellón, Barcelona, Teruel, Vizcaya, Asturias or Cáceres. Brexit would eventually has some effect in the demand, although others think it will have little impact.

http://www.elmundo.es/blogs/elmundo/moncloa-confidencial/2016/06/21/una-vision-analitica-de-unidos-podemos.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 22, 2016, 02:43:24 AM
Barely a week before the election:

Fernández Díaz appears in tape recordings conspiring against independentist politicians

  • The Minister of the Interior, Jorge Fernández Díaz, plotted with the directors of the Anti-Fraud Office of Catalonia, Daniel de Alfonso, to find corruption cases that could be used against the entourage of Oriol Junqueras, leader of ERC.
  • According to tape recordging revealed by the newspaper Público, De Alfonso assured the minister that he was lookin for scandals to be used against ERC and to be published by Planeta group's media.
  • They also considered releasing scandals against the consellers of the Govern, such as Felip Puig and Francesc Homs, due to an alleged promotion of two sisters-in-law of the Puig.
  • REACTIONS: | The director of Anti-Fraud: "We did not conspire, at leas not me. I meet with whomever requests it" (http://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/director-Antifrau-conspiramos-reuno-pide_0_529148090.html)

The Minister of the Interior, Jorge Fernández Díaz and the Director of the Anti-Fraud Office of Catalonia, Daniel de Alfonso, tried to create scandals affecting independentist parties and officials in the wake of the 9-N participative process. According to tape recordings revealed by the Público journal (http://www.publico.es/politica/fernandez-diaz-conspiro-jefe-oficina.html) on Tuesday, the two men plotted looking for corruption cases, real or otherwise, that could involve independentists, like Oriol Junqueras', ERC's leader, father or brother, or the two consellers of Convergència, Felip Puig and Francesc Homs.

In the recordings one can hear the long conservation between Fernández Díaz and De Alfonso, in which the latter explains that he's investigating the family circle of Junqueras, searching for scandals to be published through the group Planeta's media. "We are investigating Esquerra's stuff, but it's very weak. That's the truth, Minister", states the director of Antifrau. According to the conservation, the scheming was centred on the allotments of the tripartite [Catalan] government, alleged land deals by Junqueras' father, or the work promotions of family members of the then-Business conseller, Felip Puig.

The published conversations are explicit and full of details and reveal that the minister's focus was on the pro-independence leaders, leaving aside the potential irregular activities of the PSC-controlled municipal administrations. "Because after all, if we also uncover where the PSC governs with a majority and they have received an allotment, they'll say 'Well, of course, but whom are you accusing, the PSC or Esquerra?' We would lose the focus" De Alfonso explains with regards to the various allotments and concessions charged by the company in which Orial Junqueras' brother worked, for several Catalan municipalities.

De Alfonso even argued that it should be him to leak the scandal, to prevent that the UDEF [White Collar Crime Division of the Police] would "lose face". "When I finish talking to you Minister, I'll tell José Ángel [Fuentes Gago], that you know he trusts me. , if you have something, either you two give it to me, or you give it to me. Don't 'burn' yourselves leaking this to the press, because if the UDEF's name keep appearing, it will be tainted because it seems like an attack ... hell, give it to me and I'll leak, I'll research it myself and we'll give it [to the press]" De Alfonso pointed out.

The chief-inspector José Ángel Fuentes Gago has been Eugenio Pino's right-hand man. Pino's Adjoint Operative Division has hosted a secret group of policemen dedicated to search for political corruption cases of the opposition, both amongst Catalan independentism as well as in Podemos. This secret groups's existence was revealed by eldiario.es last November, when the conversations were taped.

The tape recordings published by Público would expand the degree of the actions of the Minister against pro-independence politicians beyond the National Police and would involve the director o the Anti-Fraud Office. According to the aforementioned journal, the conversations were recorded shorty after the 9-N consulta, around the same time that Jordi Pujol confessed to having had a secret bank account abroad.

Reactions have not made themselves wait.

  • ERC, CDC and En Comú Podem demand Fernández Díaz's resignation  and denounce suffering "political persecution" (http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2016/06/21/catalunya/1466534355_303110.html) (El País)
  • Fernández Díaz says that the real conspiracy is that the conversations are released just before the election and denies any wrongdoing (http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Fernandez-Diaz-verdadera-conspiracion-grabacion_0_529497114.html) (El Diario)
  • De Alfonso accuses the PSC of being behind the recordings' leak (http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160622/402681016345/daniel-de-alfonso-psc-filtracion-grabacion-fernandez-diaz.html) (La Vanguardia)
  • Sánchez, Iglesias and Rivera demand the immediate resignation of Fernández Díaz (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/06/22/actualidad/1466580879_433345.html) (El País)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 22, 2016, 05:21:55 AM
Podemos willing to not include Catalonia referendum in potential negotiations with PSOE on forming a govt., El Pais reports citing sources from the party it doesn’t identify.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 22, 2016, 05:27:07 AM
Podemos willing to not include Catalonia referendum in potential negotiations with PSOE on forming a govt., El Pais reports citing sources from the party it doesn’t identify.

If they did, it'd be the political demise of that person. For the time being, the referendum is non-negotiable. Everything will be different on Monday though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 22, 2016, 07:00:39 AM
Podemos willing to not include Catalonia referendum in potential negotiations with PSOE on forming a govt., El Pais reports citing sources from the party it doesn’t identify.

If they did, it'd be the political demise of that person. For the time being, the referendum is non-negotiable. Everything will be different on Monday though.

Pablo Iglesias says the priority is the formation of a progressive government and proposes a parallel negotiation on Catalonia and the referendum. Podemos leader maintains that the best solution is the referendum but states he's open to alternative proposals, although he also says the one of Pedro Sánchez is "anachronistic" and his is very similar to that supported by PSC years ago.

Enric Juliana collects some rumours circulating in Madrid on potential negotiations. The priority of Mariano Rajoy would be to attract the faction of PSOE closest to Felipe González before emerges the "Negrín temptation". Zapatero, PSC in Catalonia and other regional branches (Valencia and Balearic Islands, among others) could be the main champions of a negotiation with the Left. It's not a secret that Zapatero has a fluent communication path with Iglesias apart from Pedro Sánchez, says Juliana. That is perhaps surprising, because Zapatero was said to be a Susana Díaz supporter. In order to save his head, Rajoy would be ready to pick up the telephone in order to start a quick negotiation before the summer heat reaches Madrid. Before the risk of deadlock, the Monti hypothesis takes shape. Timid conjectures emerge on a consensus figure that facilitates an agreement between PP and PSOE, well connected with the European Commission and able to lead a reformist government for a period of two years.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 22, 2016, 10:35:14 AM
Reactions have not made themselves wait.

Iñaki Gabilondo sums it up pretty well. Besides a corrupt, Fernández Díaz is worthless ;D

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/22/videos/1466578074_939423.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 22, 2016, 08:39:07 PM
In the December 2015 election Podemos emerged strongly in the Basque Country, at the expense of the socialists (PSE-EE / PSOE) and the leftwing nationalist EH Bildu. Two interactive maps in El País show the results of Podemos and the drop of the EH Bildu support at municipal level.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/15/media/1466005099_919735.html

Podemos got over 30% of the vote in the municipalities located on the left side of the Bilbao Estuary (Barakaldo, Sestao, Santurtzi and others) and in some industrial towns of the Gipuzkoa province (Irún, Errentería, Pasaia, Lezo).

In contrast, there is a municipality where Podemos didn't cast a single vote. It's a tiny and relatively isolated village called Orexa, located in the Gipuzkoa province close to the border with Navarra. Everybody living there speaks Euskera (Basque). The village is organised by an old type of communal work called auzolan. 30 out of 126 inhabitants is under 18 and young people has the intent to stay. EH Bildu got 72 votes (96%), PNV 1 (1.33%) and 2 ballots were blank (2.67%). Fun fact: in the nearby Gaztelu Podemos got 27% of the vote.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/06/21/actualidad/1466532311_450417.html?rel=mas
 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: DL on June 24, 2016, 12:57:24 PM
Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 24, 2016, 12:59:59 PM
"Spain’s parties use Brexit to advance their own agenda ahead of Sunday’s elections"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/24/inenglish/1466762780_229519.html

Quote
Spain’s main candidates in Sunday’s general election all spoke out on Brexit shortly after news emerged that Britain has voted to split up with the European Union.

The nominees to the prime minister’s office also used the British example to talk about Spain’s own struggle with demands for a Catalan referendum on independence, an issue that has figured prominently in the campaign race ahead of the June 26 elections.

Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, of the Popular Party (PP), first sought to reassure tax payers and investors alike with a morning press conference in which he stressed the stability of Spain’s financial system.

But he also took the opportunity to underscore the fact that Spaniards overwhelmingly support EU permanence, according to surveys.

“I think I represent the feelings of the vast majority of Spaniards when I defend Spain’s commitment to the European integration process, the importance of euro zone stability and continuing the reform of our economic and monetary union,” he concluded.

Later, in a radio interview on the conservative Cope radio station, Rajoy said that referendums “are a tool that must be used with great care,” a clear reference to Catalan separatists’ demands for a regional referendum on independence from Spain.

The Socialist Party (PSOE) candidate, Pedro Sánchez, said that the Leave victory “is a tough blow to those of us who are pro-Europe, but it is not an irreversible blow. What has happened is a combination of populism and an irresponsible right. The populists have told British society that the phony solutions of populism can resolve real solutions [sic],” he said in a radio interview on SER.

“Europe and Spain are experiencing tension between those who defend doing nothing and those who defend a break, such as those calling for referendums,” he added, alluding to his political rival on the Spanish left, Unidos Podemos, which defends the right to decide in Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Country (...)

“We are already starting to see what referendums produce: they unload on citizens the [search for] solutions that should be resolved by parties. […] We need to reflect on some people’s irresponsible behavior of offering binary yes-no solutions to complex problems.”

Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias expressed his concern over the Brexit victory on Friday, at the same time as calling for changes in European policies.

“It's a sad day for Europe. We must change tack. Nobody would want to leave a Europe of fairness and solidarity. We need to change Europe,” he said, noting that his party was the only one to actively campaign for Britain’s permanence in the EU.

He also added that his electoral partner, Alberto Garzón of the IU communist party-led coalition, shares his views even though the Spanish Communist Party has openly proposed leaving the euro zone and the European Union.

“Alberto and I see the euro as an unavoidable framework,” said Iglesias.

Meanwhile, Garzón tweeted that “the Brexit referendum is not the problem, it is the symptom of a EU made for business and built against the people.”

Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera, who has spoken out the most about Brexit throughout the Spanish campaign race, said on Friday that the British exit should be viewed “as an opportunity to relaunch the common European project.”

“We must be aware that if the necessary reforms are not undertaken to have more Europe and more union, and if citizens are not involved in the EU’s decisions, then the project could fall apart,” he added. “David Cameron and British conservatives committed a historical irresponsibility by calling a referendum whose goal was to stop the conservatives’ competitors at the British domestic level.”

Brexit has overshadowed the scandal involving Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, who is unwilling to resign because he claims to be the victim of a conspiracy

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/23/inenglish/1466680993_751288.html

Quote
Spain’s acting interior minister, Jorge Fernández Díaz, says he has no intention of resigning over a leaked telephone conversation with the head of the Anti-Fraud Office of Catalonia (OAC), in which both men discuss the possibility of targeting Catalan pro-independence politicians or their close relatives through corruption probes and then leaking the investigations to the media.

Asked by EL PAÍS late on Wednesday afternoon if he would heed calls from the opposition, Catalan regional parties and labor unions for him to stand down over the conversations, which took place two years ago, Fernández Díaz replied: “I wouldn’t give supporters of independence the pleasure.”

Instead, the senior Popular Party official insists the leaks are part of a conspiracy designed to harm the PP in the run up to Sunday’s general election, which the PP is expected to narrowly win. “This is a broad conspiracy, which has chosen the right moment and is clearly aimed at damaging me and the Popular Party.” (...)

Here's an interview (Spanish) with sociologist Belén Barreiro, who is director and founder of MyWord and was at the head of the CIS (Center of Sociological Research). I think some socialists should take her words into account. I also think that socialists are too much self-absorbed and disconnected from reality, so...

Headlines:

 - IF PSOE and UP add enough seats, it will be very difficult to explain they don't reach an agreement

- Podemos generates a lot of enthusiasm in campaign and a great disappointment when elections pass

- The Podemos key flaw is when they make normal politics, they do it with this 'pornographic society' perspective: "let's strip ourselves". Politics needs some discretion.

- The argument of some socialists is that Podemos wants to destroy them. In any competitive market,  organizations compete for a bigger market share.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-enorme-campana-desilusion-elecciones_0_529497390.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 24, 2016, 01:02:25 PM
Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 24, 2016, 03:54:42 PM
Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

If there's any lesson to be learned from the Brexit/Grexit referenda, it's that voters are not all that concerned about "stability" nor are they apt to listen to financial commentators or center-right politicians who preach doom in the face of political change. At least, that would be my take: there's little reason to believe that PP would benefit from this; maybe more naranjas will vote for PP but, outside of that, I don't see any benefits for Rajoy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: DavidB. on June 24, 2016, 05:03:25 PM
Would a potential left-wing coalition be more likely to accept an independent Scotland as EU member?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 25, 2016, 12:51:42 AM
Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

is it awkward at all for a "People's Party"  to be campaigning against "populism"?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on June 25, 2016, 02:45:19 AM
Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

is it awkward at all for a "People's Party"  to be campaigning against "populism"?


No. Largely because by know popular is completely disassociated with people when you think of the PP. In any case, when parties have 'people's' in their name and aren't socialist, it's usually a reference to the 'good people', the families, the gente de bien, etc. It's a rather Christian democratic kind of name.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 25, 2016, 06:22:17 AM
Would not the relative strength of Podemos-IU provoke C -> PP tactical voting?

That's the aim of the PP campaign: appealing to moderate voters to counter the "populist menace". I guess it would depend on the level of polarization in the following two weeks of electoral campaign, which now is officially open. By the moment polls say that PP and C's retain their shares with little variation.

is it awkward at all for a "People's Party"  to be campaigning against "populism"?


No. Largely because by know popular is completely disassociated with people when you think of the PP. In any case, when parties have 'people's' in their name and aren't socialist, it's usually a reference to the 'good people', the families, the gente de bien, etc. It's a rather Christian democratic kind of name.

"Good and hardworking people", gente de orden. Regarding the PP I see certain perversions of the language, not only in the name. Rajoy and the other spokepersons market themselves as "moderate", "centrist" and  bearers of common sense. The reality is that PP voters perceive the party to the right of themselves and on average Spaniards think that it's very rightwing, even reactionary. As for the common sense, you have a good sample in the Fernández Díaz affair. Still, many people will vote for the PP. On the other hand someone said that all parties are "populist", especially when campaigning. The Podemos people argues that Arias Cañete driving a tractor in the EP 2014 campaign was a good example of populist campaigning.

Would a potential left-wing coalition be more likely to accept an independent Scotland as EU member?

I haven't an answer for that.

Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

If there's any lesson to be learned from the Brexit/Grexit referenda, it's that voters are not all that concerned about "stability" nor are they apt to listen to financial commentators or center-right politicians who preach doom in the face of political change. At least, that would be my take: there's little reason to believe that PP would benefit from this; maybe more naranjas will vote for PP but, outside of that, I don't see any benefits for Rajoy.

Maybe the desire for "stability" will be reflected not in the election results, but in more acceptance by public opinion of the 'Monti' and 'Grand Coalition' kind of agreements. The Podemos adversaries hope that Brexit will be bad for them and try to take advantage of the conmotion. Mariano Rajoy strengthens his calls for "stability" and "order" hoping to mobilize the undecided in his favour, as well to attract orange voters. PSOE and C's bashed Cameron's "irresponsibility" for calling a referendum and claim for a 'third way' between populism and political immobilism. The Unidos Podemos campaign was quite successful in deactivating the language of fear, but now Brexit adds uncertainty and purples are concerned. In any case, tomorrow doubts will be solved. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Beezer on June 25, 2016, 10:09:06 AM
Having read a bit about Podemos now, it is interesting to see their approach to politics as a leftist party that eschews a traditional leftist worldview and appeals to the "working class" in favor of outright populism and the whole "people vs. elite/caste" narrative that comes with it in order to appeal to a broader segment of the electorare. Of course entering an electoral alliance with the IU and PCE totally goes against that - also in light of the criticism someone like Iglesias has voiced about the orthodox and rigidity of these parties. Were the critical voices within Podemos that objected to this strategy? Or am I just completely misinterpreting their ideological approach?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 25, 2016, 11:58:37 AM
(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 25, 2016, 12:03:07 PM
(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects to move reference to final poll in headline) Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party on track for 116-120 seats in Sunday’s election, according to a Gesop survey published by El Periodic d’Andorra on its website.
PP rises from 114-118 seats in Friday’s poll, down from 123 seats in Dec. 20 election
Podemos set for 83-87 seats vs 71 in December
Socialists on 83-87 seats vs 90
Ciudadanos 38-42 seats vs 40
Poll based on 900 interviews conducted June 22-24

Why not post the link to the Andorreans :)?

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/quinto-sondeo-elecciones-generales-26j.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 25, 2016, 12:22:34 PM
Having read a bit about Podemos now, it is interesting to see their approach to politics as a leftist party that eschews a traditional leftist worldview and appeals to the "working class" in favor of outright populism and the whole "people vs. elite/caste" narrative that comes with it in order to appeal to a broader segment of the electorare. Of course entering an electoral alliance with the IU and PCE totally goes against that - also in light of the criticism someone like Iglesias has voiced about the orthodox and rigidity of these parties. Were the critical voices within Podemos that objected to this strategy? Or am I just completely misinterpreting their ideological approach?

Yes, the alliance between Podemos and IU is a bit contradictory with the Podemos initial premise. It has changed the narrative of this election: December 2015 was a confrontation between "old politics" (PP and PSOE) and "new politics" (Podemos and C's), June 2016 is more similar to the classic confrontation between the Left and the Right. There were political differences between Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and second in command Íñigo Errejón. Iglesias and others wanted the alliance, while Errejón was very reluctant. Errejón is totally engaged with the "populist hypothesis" and considers that "socialdemocrat" or "communist" are outdated labels. However, the new coalition Unidos Podemos introduced a factor of novelty in this campaign and they have made a good use of it. Podemos people is masterful in campaigning, especially Errejón.
 
The Podemos populism is not easy to explain. Firstly, in our postcapitalist society it's hard to talk about the "working class" as a homogeneous collective subject. Secondly, what do you mean exactly with "outright populism"? The Podemos leadership is clearly leftist (I should say post-Marxist); that's their background and ideology. They are very influenced by Gramsci and by an Argentinian political theorist called Ernesto Laclau, particularly by a book called On Populist Reason

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernesto_Laclau

Quote
Ernesto Laclau (Spanish: [laˈklau]; 6 October 1935 – 13 April 2014) was an Argentine political theorist. He is often described as post-Marxist. He is well-known for his collaborations with his long-term partner, Chantal Mouffe.

He studied History in Buenos Aires, graduating from the Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires in 1964, and received a PhD from the University of Essex in 1977.

Since 1986 he served as Professor of Political Theory at the University of Essex, where he founded and directed for many years the graduate programme in Ideology and Discourse Analysis, as well as the Centre for Theoretical Studies in the Humanities and the Social Sciences. Under his directorship, the Ideology and Discourse Analysis programme has provided a research framework for the development of a distinct type of discourse analysis that draws on post-structuralist theory (especially the work of Saussure, Derrida, and Wittgenstein) and psychoanalysis (primarily the work of Lacan) to provide innovative analysis of concrete political phenomena, such as identities, discourses and hegemonies. This theoretical and analytical orientation is known today as the 'Essex School of discourse analysis' (...)

In his more recent works Laclau returned to a topic that was prevalent in his earliest writings: populism. In On Populist Reason, Laclau considered the nature of populism in political discourse, the creation of a popular hegemonic bloc such as "the people", and the importance of affect in politics. Building on his earlier work, Laclau argued that the basis of populism lies in the creation of "empty signifiers": words and ideas that express a universal idea of justice, and symbolically structure the political environment. Against those who see populism as a threat to democracy, Laclau argued that it is an essential component of it.

His widow Chantal Mouffe published recently an opinion article in El País called "The Populist Moment". I'll try to translate some excerpts.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/06/06/opinion/1465228236_594864.html

Today in Europe we are living a populist moment that means a turning point for our democracies, which future will depend on the response that is given to this challenge. To confront this situation is necessary to reject the media simplistic vision of populism as pure demagoguery and to adopt an analytical perspective. I propose to follow Ernesto Laclau, who defines the populism as a way of constructing the political, consisting in the establishment of a political border that divides society in two fields, appealing to the mobilization of "los de abajo" (those who are downwards, the people) opposite to "los de arriba" (those who are upwards, the elites). Populism is not an ideology and it's not possible to attribute it a programmatical specific content. Neither is a political regime and is compatible with a variety of state forms. It's a way of doing politics that can take different forms according to epochs and places. It arises when aims to construct a new subject of collective action -the people- able to reconfigure a social order lived as unjust

Examined from this optics, the recent surge of populist forms of politics in Europe appears as the expression of a crisis of liberal-democratic politics due to the convergence of several phenomena, which in the last years have affected the conditions of the exercise of democracy. The first one is what I have proposed to call 'post-politics' to refer to the blur of the political border between the Right and the Left. It was the result of the consensus established between the centre-right and centre-left parties on the idea of that there was no alternative to the neoliberal globalisation. (...) In this way it was challenged the very heart of the democratic idea: the power of the people (...)

(...)Far from being a progress towards a more mature society, as it is said sometimes, this evolution undermines the bases of our western model of democracy, habitually designated as republican. This model was the result of the articulation between two traditions: the liberal of the constitutional state, separation of powers and affirmation of individual freedom, and the democratic tradition of equality and popular sovereignty. These two political logics are ultimately irreconcilable, since always a tension will exist between the principles of freedom and equality. But this tension is constitutive of our republican model because it guarantees pluralism.

As the border between the Left and the Right became blurry by the reduction of democracy to its liberal dimension, it disappeared the space where that agonistic confrontation between adversaries could take place. And democratic aspirations no longer find channels of expression in the frame of traditional politics. The Demos, the sovereign people, has been declared a zombie category and now we are living in post-democratic societies.

These changes at political level fall within the frame of a new hegemonic neoliberal formation, characterized by a form of regulation of capitalism in which financial capital has a central position. We have witnessed the exponential increase of inequality that not only concerns the lower class, but also to a large proportion of the middle class, which has entered in a process of impoverishment and precariousness. It is possible to speak about a real phenomenon of oligarquisation of our societies.

In this context of social and political crisis have arisen a variety of populist movements that reject the post-politics and the post-democracy. They proclaim that they are going to return to the people the voice that has been confiscated by the elites. Regardless of the problematic forms that can take some of these movements, it is important to admit that they rely on legitimate democratic aspirations. The people, nevertheless, can be constructed in very different ways and the problem is that not all of they go in a progressive direction. In several European countries this aspiration to recover sovereignty has been caught by rightwing populist parties that have managed to construct the people through a xenophobic speech that excludes immigrants, deemed as a threat for prosperity(...)

The only way to prevent the emergence of such parties and oppose those already existing is through the construction of another people, promoting a progressive populist movement receptive to those democratic aspirations and channels them towards the defence of equality and social justice

What is at stake is the constitution of a collective will that establishes a synergy between the multiplicity of social movements and political forces which aim is the deepening of democracy. In so far as wide social sectors are suffering the effects of financial capitalism, a potential exists in order that this collective will has a transverse character that exceeds the left/right cleavage as it's formed traditionally. To rise to the occasion of the challenge that represents the populist moment for the development of democracy, it's needed a form of politics that restores the tension between the liberal and the democratic logic and, despite some people claim, it's possible to do it without putting republican institutions at risk


I think that's enough to get the idea. I've put a sentence in bold letters because it's related with a claim or remark made by the spokepoersons of the Indignados movement back in May 2011, that is their protest was the best antidote against the spread of xenophobia and other hate speeches.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Beezer on June 25, 2016, 12:30:24 PM
With "outright populism" I mean the most basic definition out there, namely the bisection of society into the two groups of "the people" and "the elite" along with the valorization of the former and vilification of the latter.

Errejon is an interesting character because contrary to other leftists he, as you mentioned, wholly embraces the populist label. Of course that's in line with Mouffe and her view that populism can serve as a corrective. I suppose Iglesias is more of a traditional politician whose primary goal is to obtain political power. If that can be achieved by discarding old principles, why not?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 25, 2016, 01:08:21 PM
I suppose Iglesias is more of a traditional politician whose primary goal is to obtain political power. If that can be achieved by discarding old principles, why not?

Not exactly. Iglesias is also influenced by Laclau, but he has more fondness for certain figures of IU (the traditional "alternative" or "post-communist" left). Discarding old principles can be interpreted in two ways: lack of consistency and scruples or flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances. Podemos stands for equality and social justice and both are the main principles of the Left. Among the best virtues of Podemos as electoral machine is that it's a very dynamic party in constant mutation. It has engaged in politics many young people, intellectuals, artists and other social collectives, taking them out from apathy in a context of a deep crisis with multiple faces. Even adversaries should acknowledge that. As for the flaws, critics say subordination of principles to strategy and excess of manoeuvering, also a couple of things pointed in a previous post. Iglesias has blind spots, of course. Personally, I don't like very much his occasional fits of arrogance nor I like the cult of personality that some of his supporters profess. Without a shadow of a doubt he is the most gifted politician of Spain right now, in the sense that he has a complete stage control and great communication skills. However, he has a polarising personality and that works against him (supporters revere him like a rock star, but he arouses animosity among other people). The good thing for Iglesias is that he's not alone; he has a team behind and UP has more reference persons. It'd be misleading to believe that Podemos is a party around a charismatic figure. Iglesias is ambitious and that's legitimate. As for certain old banners of the left, I think that most of the people don't care.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 26, 2016, 02:27:08 AM
The day begins. Any guesses on what turnout will be? Polls said similar to December, but I remain sceptical.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 07:51:18 AM
Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zanas on June 26, 2016, 09:07:25 AM
I can't remember if someone has posted links to a good results page.

So, this is the Junta Electoral Central page (http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es).

I don't know if some newspapers' pages are better, quicker, if so please post a link.

I'll be attending a special evening organized by Podemos Paris to follow the results! :) Whether UP overtakes PSOE or fails miserably, I will most likely be drunk some time this evening...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 09:33:51 AM
I'll be attending a special evening organized by Podemos Paris to follow the results! :) Whether UP overtakes PSOE or fails miserably, I will most likely be drunk some time this evening...

Have a good evening, whatever the results are. I must confess that I got a bit drunk myself tonight. I said to my friends that I was hesitating between the different ballots because, as a good Peronist, I'm ideologically flexible. A little more seriously, I should consider to go to the polling station in a moment.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zanas on June 26, 2016, 09:56:18 AM
This is the first election in quite some time when I am actually a bit enthusiastic about one of the options. It's getting rarer and rarer... Podemos and IU, with so different backgrounds, actually achieving to work together on a program and ballot repartition, you don't see that often and it gives a little hope. Let's see what's next and what the pueblo thinks !


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 10:39:03 AM
Turnout at 14:00 (CET) is 36.86%, almost identical to December. This doesn't mean that figures are going to be the same when polling stations close at 20:00. It could drop in the afternoon... or not.

It seems by region

()

Turnout by 2pm was higher relative to 2015 in areas of PP and PSOE strength.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 10:39:19 AM
Holding fingers crossed for PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 11:37:39 AM
Bloomberg : SPAIN VOTE PARTICIPATION AT 51.17% AT 6.15PM, DOWN FROM DEC.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 11:50:05 AM
Looks like turnout is down 7% and is a record low.   This should help mchine parties like PP and PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Double Carpet on June 26, 2016, 12:54:59 PM
TV coverage:

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/mas-24/

Assuming seats similar to Dec 15, what do people think the new government will be?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 12:56:07 PM
Exit polls rumors are that Podemos overtook PSOE and that C is doing badly. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 12:59:42 PM
Exit polls:
PP 117-121
Podemos at 91-95 seats
PSOE 81-85
C 26-30


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:01:11 PM
In theory Podemos+PSOE has majority.  But in 2015 exit polls seems to have underestimated PP so we will have to see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:02:49 PM
GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: windjammer on June 26, 2016, 01:05:02 PM
GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:06:12 PM
GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Double Carpet on June 26, 2016, 01:06:45 PM
So, PSOE could either join Podemos-led govt, or grand coalition with PP? Latter less likely?

Also ERC projected 11-12, would they back UP-PSOE gov, or does Catalonia issue get in way?

Iglesias to follow Tsipras as Europe's 2nd radical left PM?

PNV projected 5-6.

PP + C's well short so only governing option for PP is with PSOE?

I think official results site gets going in 1 hour once Canaries close?

Thoughts welcome, thanks!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: windjammer on June 26, 2016, 01:09:25 PM
GAD3 exit poll has PP 123 Podemos 88 PSOE 85 C 31.  Very close to Podemos+PSOE majority.
There are as well some indy leftist regionalist parties right?
I guess that should be enough for a leftwing coalition.

Main problem here is will PSOE be willing to play second fiddle to Podemos.  Most likely not.
Well, PSOE and Podemos seem to be really close. Let's see if indeed PSOE will be behind :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:10:50 PM
Vote share projections seems to be

PP           28.5%
Podemos  25.6%
PSOE       22.0%
C             11.8%

PP and PSOE same as 2015, C down around 2% and Podemos up around 1.2%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 01:12:31 PM
how likely is Pablo Iglesias being elected Prime Minister with these results?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 26, 2016, 01:20:04 PM
Link to the official vote count?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:23:21 PM
Exit poll graphic from RTVE

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:24:57 PM
GAD3 exit poll image graphic

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:44:37 PM
I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Double Carpet on June 26, 2016, 01:46:06 PM
Official vote count is here, will go live at 9pm Spain time once Canaries have closed:

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 26, 2016, 01:49:50 PM
Official vote count is here, will go live at 9pm Spain time once Canaries have closed:

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

Thanks!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 01:52:01 PM
I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

It's possible. Exit polls failed in the December elections.

Sigma Dos estimates for Andalusia: PSOE 21, PP 19, Podemos 14, C's 4
The same pollster for Catalonia: ECP 14, ERC 11, PSC 7, CDC 5, C's 4, PP 4

Real count starts at 20:00 (GMT). Less than 10 minutes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 01:55:17 PM
A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 01:57:34 PM
A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:00:35 PM
A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:00:38 PM
GAD3 exit poll with vote shares

()

PP           30.4%
Podemos  24.8%
PSOE       21.8%
C             13.2%

Here they have PP up 1.7%, Podemos  up 0.4%, PSOE down 0.2%, C down 0.7%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:02:27 PM
Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:04:23 PM
A progressive bloc led by Unidos Podemos may be in a position to govern according to the result of exit poll, Alberto Garzon, leader of United Left, says in televised statement.

On these results it would be an extremely weak government, that would pretty much have to give Catalans their referendum (remember, the third largest leftist group is ERC).

UP and PSOE add between 171 and 175 seats, according to GAD3. With that result, ERC would not be necessary, because the hypothetical coalition could rely on PNV.

I thought PNV was more center-right.  Would that work with them propping up a left bloc government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:05:32 PM
Do they start counting at 8PM or hold off counting until 9PM?  If the former we should see a lot of the results come in very soon.

They hold off in mainland Spain, so stay tunned.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:06:30 PM
Some results in

PP           30.92%
PSOE       24.08%
Podomos  20.61% (I think I added them up correctly)
C              9.24%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Double Carpet on June 26, 2016, 02:07:04 PM
Count has now lit up - it's PP 133, PSOE 94 on the 1st show - so Podemos may not finish 2nd...

Note there are several Podemos lists on the official site.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 02:08:18 PM
I don't know how representative these are of Spain as a whole, but looks something like massive underperformance for the new parties and a large overperformance for the old (especially PSOE). PSOE+UP is 158, PP+C's is 152. If it stays this way, I think a third election could become inevitable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:09:00 PM
I don't know how representative these are of Spain as a whole, but looks something like massive underperformance for the new parties and a large overperformance for the old (especially PSOE). PSOE+UP is 158, PP+C's is 152. If it stays this way, I think a third election could become inevitable.

Its very early, not clear what the trend is yet.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:09:54 PM
11% in

PP           30.59%
PSOE       24.11%
Podomos  20.90%  
C              9.49%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 02:11:20 PM
which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 02:12:23 PM
which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?

Yes -- that would be En Comu Podem, the Catalan affiliate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:13:37 PM
Is the Senate up for election as well or just the Lower House ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:14:22 PM
Count at 13.73%

PP 131, PSOE 91, UP 66, C's 22, ERC 10, CDC 8, EAJ-PNV 5, EH Bildu 2   

which party is the one that's a PODEMOS affiliate without have PODEMOS in the name? ECP?

PODMOS-IU-EQUO, ECP, PODEMOS-COMPROMIS-EUPV, PODEMOS-EN MAREA-ANOVA-IU

Is the Senate up for election as well or just the Lower House ?

The Senate is up.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:14:38 PM
16% in

PP           30.56%
PSOE       24.26%
Podomos  21.11%  
C             10.05%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 26, 2016, 02:22:20 PM
Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:23:55 PM
26% in

PP           30.64%
PSOE       24.17%
Podomos  21.34% 
C             10.72%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 02:24:22 PM
Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99000CI.htm?lang=es

It's in Spanish, but that shouldn't really be a problem


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 02:24:24 PM
Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99000CM.htm?lang=es

click on the comunidades tab - Madrid is only 3.66% in but that's the only place without much reporting


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:27:08 PM
30% in

PP           30.74%
PSOE       24.17%
Podomos  21.33% 
C             10.93%

Podomos not gaining ground fast enough. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:27:31 PM
Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

You can see results by region, province or municipality in the official site. The count in smaller municiplaties usually goes fast, possibly urban areas will come later. I would wait until the count reaches 50%.

Maybe it's better following results in a media outlet. At least they make the addition of the different Podemos lists. I'll link El País:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2016/generales/congreso/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:32:39 PM
Do we know where those results are coming from? If they're representative, this looks like a major failure for Podemos.

You can see results by region, province or municipality in the official site. The count in smaller municiplaties usually goes fast, possibly urban areas will come later. I would wait until the count reaches 50%.

Maybe it's better following results in a media outlet. At least they make the addition of the different Podemos lists. I'll link El País:

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2016/generales/congreso/

At least the official site was nice enough to colorize all the Podemos lists in purple. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 26, 2016, 02:32:46 PM
Thanks for the tips. Sorry for being pretty much a noob. :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:33:57 PM
36% in

PP           30.93%       134
PSOE       24.11%        95
Podomos  21.36%        69 
C             11.24%        27


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:37:20 PM
Not that much results from Madrid yet but whatever results are in there PSOE is getting a swing from Podomos and C.  This could be decisive if this is indicative of how urban areas might be going.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:40:04 PM
44% in

PP           31.17%       132
PSOE       24.02%        96
Podomos  21.41%        70 
C             11.52%        27

PP and PSOE over-performing exit polls


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:40:36 PM
Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:43:03 PM
Anyway the count has reached nearly 47.5% and UP is 2.7% behind PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 02:43:20 PM
Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.

I see Barcelona at 46,45% reporting?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 02:45:00 PM
Right now the municipality of Madrid is at 10.3% and the municipality of Barcelona at 19.7%. The count in the Canaries started one hour later and there's less than 1% reported.

I see Barcelona at 46,45% reporting?


The Barcelona province is at 50.89% and Barcelona city at 26.66% right now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:45:10 PM
47% in

PP           31.32%       134
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69  
C             11.63%        28


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: DL on June 26, 2016, 02:46:59 PM
Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 02:47:09 PM
47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:48:51 PM
Podemos vote share I suspect will go down from here.  All the places where Podemos are in the top two parties have a much higher share of the vote counted than Spain as a whole.  Podemos has to hope the Madrid count and other urban areas turn around soon in their favor.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:49:35 PM
47% in
PSOE       23.96%        94
Podomos  21.39%        69 

is it just me or is that a huge seat disparity for two parties so close together in the popular vote?

Well, if Podomos has all their votes concentrated in certain parts of the country then this result makes a lot of sense.  This is not a pure PR system.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:51:00 PM
55% in

PP           31.54%       134
PSOE       23.78%        92
Podomos  21.40%        70 
C             11.87%        29

C making up ground mostly at expense of PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 26, 2016, 02:54:04 PM
What type of voter is 2016 UPyD voter? Who still votes on them? They will again have worse score than that party with cute cow in logo.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: DavidB. on June 26, 2016, 02:55:00 PM
Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable
this. LMAO


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:55:21 PM
61% in

PP           31.73%       135
PSOE       23.65%        90
Podomos  21.38%        71  
C             12,07%        29

I think seat count will not be far off from this.  Only Madrid is sort of changeable at this stage in terms of seat distribution.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 02:57:23 PM
Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:03:54 PM
69% in

PP           31.98%       135
PSOE       23.50%        89
Podemos  21.36%        72 
C             12,27%        29

PP and C gaining vote share.  PSOE falling vote share.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:06:30 PM
The trend from Madrid is still PSOE is getting a swing from Podemos and C with 36% of the vote in.  Podemos shot is bolt by forming an alliance with IU.   The net result is Podemos losing vote share and no real gain in terms of seats even though the threshold effect of the IU bloc should have gained it a lot of seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:10:36 PM
74% in

PP           32.16%       136
PSOE       23.38%        89
Podemos  21.32%        71  
C             12.40%        29

C still going up.  C's results not as far as they must have feared when they saw the exit polls given that back in 2015 C totally under-performed exit polls.  This time it is Podemos's turn.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:13:35 PM
Podemos falling apart in Madrid.  They are down 3.5% from 2015 and getting worse as more votes comes in.  C is down around 2% since 2015.   PSOE and to some extend PP are the gainers.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 03:14:05 PM
Podemos second in command Ïñigo Errejón admitted that the results are bad for UP.

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

The pressure to reach a "stable" agreement will be stronger. The bad thing is that results vindicate Rajoy and likely he will persist on his idea of a Grand Coalition led by himself. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:18:42 PM
I most likely do not know what I am talking about.  But based on the turnout patterns I feel the exit poll most likely overestimates Podemos and underestimates PP and PSOE.    I guess we will see.

I now accept my accolades (this is an old forum joke stemming from the 2004 US elections.)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:21:43 PM
I wonder how much effect the post-Brexit market and political (at least in UK) choas had on this election.  If should have driven the voters to go for establishment parties which seems to have taken place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:23:06 PM
82% in

PP           32.44%       136
PSOE       23.17%        88
Podemos  21.27%        71 
C             12.61%        30

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:24:07 PM
Podemos now down 4% in Madrid and falling.  PP now up 3% and rising.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jeron on June 26, 2016, 03:24:17 PM
Podemos second in command Ïñigo Errejón admitted that the results are bad for UP.

Starting to look like when all the dust settles the result will be almost identical to last winter except that PP gained 10 or so seats from Cs...Spain remains ungovernable

I am not sure I agree.  PP's gains in terms of vote count and seats gives it more political chips to go for a PP government with support from C and PSOE from the outside.  Question now is is that with or without Rajoy who can legitimately claim that he can and should continue.

The pressure to reach a "stable" agreement will be stronger. The bad thing is that results vindicate Rajoy and likely he will persist on his idea of a Grand Coalition led by himself. 

PSOE and C will never accept a Rajoy led government. So, if Rajoy persists, Spain will indeed remain ungovernable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 03:30:30 PM
The last-hour Brexit effect is a plausible possibility. Unlike previous polls suggested, the UP potential voters didn't mobilise and it seems that PSOE received some transfers from Podemos. Maybe when the dust settles...

PSOE and C will never accept a Rajoy led government. So, if Rajoy persists, Spain will indeed remain ungovernable.

Pressure from the EC, the economic powers and the 'markets' will be very strong. Establishment parties will be forced to find a solution. It's not easy if Rajoy has the intent to stay. He will say that he's legitimated by popular vote to continue at the head. At least it seems that Pedro Sánchez saves his head; results leave Ciudadanos in a bad place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:35:39 PM
88% in

PP           32.68%       136
PSOE       23.00%        87
Podemos  21.22%        71 
C             12.77%        31

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 03:41:29 PM
Are the C's in a bad place, though? They're still gaining, and even if the current results are accurate, they've lost less than 1.5% off their 2015 result and have lost significantly fewer seats than expected.

At the moment, PP/C's are at 168 and still gaining, with PSOE/UP at 158 and declining. (Compare to 2015 totals of 163 and 159). PNV has supported PP government in the past, as has the old CiU (though I suspect the modern CDC may be less willing, but if pressure is on, that may be a possibility too). I think if a few more seats trend right, then PP/C's supported by regional parties becomes a very likely scenario (though I'm sure C's and minor parties would force Rajoy's ouster).

It doesn't make sense to me that PP would rather keep Rajoy and not form government than dump him and be the dominant governmental partner for 4 years.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 26, 2016, 03:48:17 PM
The problem is that the PP's internal life is dead. There's only Rajoy and his minions. No one would dare - most likely - to replace him. So it's uncertain.

In Euskadi, maybe the PP can get PNV abstention or support in exchange of the PP doing the same after the regional elections there in the fall.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:48:48 PM
93% in

PP           32.85%       136
PSOE       22.84%        86
Podemos  21.17%        71  
C             12.90%        32

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 03:50:31 PM
So this election looks like it is about

a) Some 2015 C voters voting PP
b) 2015 PSOE vote staying with PSOE
3) Some 2015 Podemos-IU voters just staying home.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 03:50:59 PM
I think they are in a bad place to force Rajoy's ouster, but their result admittedly is not that bad. C's is losing only 1% of the vote share, while UP is losing 3.3%, PSOE gains 0.8% but losing seats in the final stages of the count and PP is 4.1% up :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 03:56:50 PM
Down in the weeds for a moment, Tarragona's very amusing six-way tie from 2015 seems like it has repeated itself.

PP/C's are at 169, to PSOE/UP's 156. Including non-Catalonian right-wing regionalists, PP/C's/PNV/PNC is at 175 exactly. Gain one more seat, and the PP-led (but of necessity Rajoy-excluding) right-wing coalition comes into very clear view.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: DavidB. on June 26, 2016, 04:04:16 PM
With PP and C's now having 169 virtual seats, what are the chances of such a coalition + some other MPs being formed?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:04:42 PM
It is hard to argue for Rajoy to go since this is the third election in a row where he led PP to be the largest party in terms of seats and votes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:06:07 PM
96% in

PP           32.95%       137
PSOE       22.77%        85
Podemos  21.13%        71 
C             12.97%        32

PP and C continue to gain from PSOE.  Podemos losing ground very slowing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 04:08:25 PM
Down in the weeds for a moment, Tarragona's very amusing six-way tie from 2015 seems like it has repeated itself.

Yes, it's quite amusing. Inside Tarragona province, the different areas vote in a dissimilar way.

PP considers that the result has been a "success" and , according to El País, waits that a weakened PSOE lets Rajoy to govern.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Dereich on June 26, 2016, 04:17:11 PM
It is hard to argue for Rajoy to go since this is the third election in a row where he led PP to be the largest party in terms of seats and votes.

In the most recent poll I could find, Rajoy's net approval rating was -44. He has presided over a large number of corruption scandals. He's even been declared persona non grata by his hometown legislature. No leader with an ounce of sense will ever agree to join him in government. C's, especially, would suffer with the voters who chose them as an alternative to PP and PSOE corruption and aren't willing to support PODEMOS radicalism.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 04:20:09 PM
Pablo Iglesias: "results are not satisfactory for us". He said that "political maturity" has to do with managing the good and the bad moments, denies that Podemos has a ceiling and assures that it will go out for victory in the next elections. Iglesias does not regret not having backed the agreement between PSOE and C's because there are programmatic incompatibilities between Podemos and PP or C's.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 26, 2016, 04:21:49 PM
How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:22:12 PM
98% in

PP           32.99%       137
PSOE       22.71%        85
Podemos  21.12%        71  
C             13.01%        32

C crosses 13%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:23:35 PM
How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.

Yes, what is amazing is that they are 69% counted after one hour of counting.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 04:24:40 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 04:25:10 PM
How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.

It seems that Spain is more advanced in that regard than other western countries. If I'm able to find some text in English on the counting system, I'll put a link or something ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 04:26:18 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

What is PNC? Canary Coalition?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 26, 2016, 04:29:43 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

What is PNC? Canary Coalition?

Yeah.

How the hell it is possible that Spanish electoral commissions needed only 3.5 hours to count all votes? Do you have any texts in English about counting system in Spain?

http://resultados2016.infoelecciones.es/99CO/DCO99999TO.htm?lang=es

I remember that last elections also it was fast but still for me this is unbelievable.

It seems that Spain is more advanced in that regard than other western countries. If I'm able to find some text in English on the counting system, I'll put a link or something ;)


I would be grateful!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 04:45:11 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 26, 2016, 04:46:24 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:46:49 PM
99% in

PP           33.01%       137
PSOE       22.68%        85
Podemos  21.11%        71  
C             13.04%        32

PP crosses 33%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Double Carpet on June 26, 2016, 04:48:55 PM
Spain counts at polling stations (like most countries), which is why it's so fast - but even allowing for that it's faster than most other large countries.

Austria and Denmark also count quickly but are obviously much smaller.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 04:49:00 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

I mean, other than being right-wing, PNV these days is not a very good partner for either PP or C. It might ask for things for the Basques that would not be acceptable  for either of the 2 other partners. In any case, so far they are still one seat short.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 04:50:04 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:51:20 PM
Looks like PP increased its majority in the Senate from 124 to 130 with 78% of the votes counted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 04:51:57 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

What's changed since 1996, when the PNV supported Aznar's first investiture vote?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 04:52:30 PM
Frankly, it is hard to see of any majority government here, other than the grand coalition of PP-PSOE. And I have no clue why PSOE would agree to enter such a government.

The only other plausible coalition is PSOE-Podemos-CC: and there are still no reasons to believe it would work any better than before this election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:53:30 PM
Podemos now down 4.9% in Madrid while C only down around 1%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 04:55:13 PM
With results at 99.26% and in raw vote, with regards to December 2015: PP gains 600k votes, PSOE is losing less than 100k, UP is losing 1M and C's is losing 500k. First impression could be that there was a C's-PP transfer and a huge demobilisation among the UP base.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 04:55:52 PM
99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Bacon King on June 26, 2016, 04:56:26 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 04:57:37 PM
99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 04:59:16 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

>PP
>Basque nationalists

Pick one.

At the very least, Rajoy would have to go for this to work, methinks.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 04:59:27 PM
I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 04:59:40 PM
99.48% counted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:00:57 PM
I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 05:01:10 PM
98.06% counted. PP/C's/PNV/PNC still at 175. One additional vote still necessary for the formation of a right-wing government.

I don't think that coalition would be remotely feasible in the slightest?

Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.

C's -- in addition to also being a right-wing force -- have said they'll only negotiate with PP if the leader is not Rajoy, which seems like the biggest problem to this coalition if they can get up to an actual majority with the final results.

What other option is even remotely capable of approaching government formation?

all other reasons aside, C's whole deal is being completely opposed to regional nationalism

Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

99.26% counted...looks like it's barely not enough. Who's ready for another round of useless posturing, the impotent Rajoy government staying in power for a few more months, and a third election?

Seems like the most likely outcome.  Even if they get one more seat, the new PNV-reliant government would be very precarious. Rajoy is not known to be a great friend of the Basques.

The only other option would be sending for CDC. But that means referendum.

Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 05:06:30 PM
I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment :)

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.

This PP result is a terrible mess. Rajoy is more a problem than a solution.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 05:13:36 PM
Pedro Sanchez, says his party's second place finish in Sunday's general election shows that "we are the foremost political power on the left."


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:13:45 PM


Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.



Canarians and PNV are extremely different beasts. The fact that C can negotiate with Canarians is not at all indicative of their chances with PNV.

Things that happened in the past, happened in a very different climate. The last few years PP has been emphatically building itself based on being opposed to Basque and Catalan nationalism (and, of course, C has started in opposition to Catalanism as such). Now they would need PNV or CDC - two parties that feel very aggrieved precisely by PP and C. Frankly, I do think abstension from PSOE might be easier to get.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:15:55 PM
I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Why? Their electorate would be very upset if they do.

For king and country? It is not a very Socialist sentiment :)

PSOE leadership has been always quite monarchic. Furthermore, it's said that king Juan Carlos had a more friendly relationship with Felipe González or Zapatero than with Aznar or Rajoy.


That may be true. But it is one thing to be friendly to HM, and quite another thing to sacrifice your political future for Him. And I cannot see how tolerating this government is not going to make Podemos destroy PSOE next time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:16:55 PM

Rajoy and Rivera would both rather have a third general election than a referendum. So that's right out.

True. That is out. But I doubt that PNV will ask for something less unacceptable than a referendum :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 05:18:49 PM
Rivera Says Ciudadanos Will Demand Electoral Reform in Spain


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 05:21:38 PM
Why's that? PNV and PNC both have histories of backing PP governments when Aznar was President (and are basically right-wing parties), and the relations haven't changed since that time. CiU also backed Aznar, but since their descendant party is pro-Catalan independence I don't think PP can find any support there.
Sure, but C's have been known to negotiate with regional parties in the very recent past (they couldn't get an agreement with PNV in the 2015 government formation, but they did get the Canarians to back them, and that was in an environment where it was understood that the investiture vote would fail). In a scenario where it's either government formation or go back to the polls and risk heavy losses, an agreement between C's and PNV could be hammered out.

The problem between C's and PNV is that oranges don't like the special economic regime ruling in the Basque Country and that's a sacred matter for Basque nationalists. The relationship between the Basque government and the Rajoy administration is by no means as tormented as that between the central government and Catalonia, but anyway it's cold. Even though PNV is a centrist and considerably pragmatic party, it's not easy that they reach a stable agreement with PP and C's. Basque Country will have elections in October, while PNV is engaged with the other forces in Basque Parliament in a reform of their statute of autonomy. I don't see Rajoy and Rivera giving an enthusiastic support for a deepening of the Basque self-government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:22:55 PM
There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 05:27:45 PM
99.86% in

PP           33.02%       137
PSOE       22.67%        85
Podemos  21.11%        71 
C             13.05%        32

I doubt it will change from here given how few votes are left.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:29:10 PM
99.91%. No change.

So, all these discussions about PNV being partnerable with PP and C may turn out to be academic. Get your pick of ERC, CDC or EH-Bildu.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 05:33:56 PM
There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:44:51 PM
There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Upsilon on June 26, 2016, 05:46:12 PM
The biggest problem is that the catalan are necessarily in the opposition... This make the formation of any government impossible (except grand coalition).

The catalan supported Aznar then Zapatero but now it's an old story...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 05:46:56 PM
Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:47:29 PM
99.96%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 05:47:58 PM
Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Upsilon on June 26, 2016, 05:54:17 PM
And why not a minority government like in Ireland, with a sort of pact where the main opposition party abstains on the budget during 2-3 years ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 05:54:48 PM
Rajoy: “We have won the elections -- we claim the right to govern”

Well, he will govern - till November or December, when the next elections happen.

Well, if the trends from this election continue, PP/C's will have a majority at the next round and then PP will probably dump him (probably replace him with someone ideologically similar, but Rajoy is poisonous at this point). If trends don't continue and there's not some radical unlikely-seeming change, then Rajoy will continue governing after the third election...

There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

PNV could be convinced to back PSOE for stability's sake, certainly. But would PNV really enter into a coalition with Podemos, whom they are adversarial rivals with in the Basque Country? That seems even less likely than PNV backing the PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 26, 2016, 05:56:49 PM
There is, of course, one more, very unsettling possibility. PSOE/Podemos/ERC/CDC/PNV (and outside suppport of EH-Bildu on some votes). It is a majority. Of course, it is a majority with a referendum (and, possibly, not only in Catalunya).

That is not a realistic possibility. PSOE and Podemos could have been tried that possibility after the December elections. Iglesias already proposed that agreement in a singular way and PSOE rejected it. The PSOE's Federal Committee held days after the previous election banned deals with Catalan separatist parties. It's more likely that PP, PSOE and C's start tripartite negotiations. Prospects are uncertain, but they will be pressured to prevent a third election.

Why would they need C in it? They have a majority between the two of them. Why share spoils with C?

PP/C's may be more palatable for PSOE to support from the outside than just PP. An outright PP/PSOE coalition seems unlikely even if Sanchez (who is strongly against any cooperation with PP) were to be removed by an internal coup.

Since Sanchez overperformed his polling and has maintained PSOE's status as the preeminent Spanish left, I would imagine he hangs on, which makes the chances of a PP/PSOE agreement -- of any sort -- very minute. Rajoy's leadership has also been bolstered by this election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 26, 2016, 06:01:39 PM
I still think a technocrat ia most likely. That way Rajoy can still control PP for embezzlement purposes and C's/PSOE don't get roasted alive.

Remember at some point, people like the ratings agencies and the like will start to put out warnings if yet another election is called (especially as there doesn't seem to be a huge probability that a third election will be any more stable than this one).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 06:02:33 PM
And why not a minority government like in Ireland, with a sort of pact where the main opposition party abstains on the budget during 2-3 years ?

It could be a minority government, of course. But that pretty much means a PP/C coalition with PSOE on the outside. And that is exactly feasibility of what we have been discussing here. Still, it is far from clear that PSOE would abstain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 26, 2016, 06:04:03 PM
I'm thinking that Podemos need to sideline Pablo Iglasias atm (Like Grillo has withdrawn from the Star Movement). Like he would still be the leader of the party, but not the candidate up for PM. Velasco any thoughts?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 26, 2016, 06:04:44 PM
I still think a technocrat ia most likely. That way Rajoy can still control PP for embezzlement purposes and C's/PSOE don't get roasted alive.

Remember at some point, people like the ratings agencies and the like will start to put out warnings if yet another election is called (especially as there doesn't seem to be a huge probability that a third election will be any more stable than this one).

Makes sense. Felipe should propose a name.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 06:12:53 PM
I'm thinking that Podemos need to sideline Pablo Iglasias atm (Like Grillo has withdrawn from the Star Movement). Like he would still be the leader of the party, but not the candidate up for PM. Velasco any thoughts?

It would depend on how they manage the disappointing results and in the continuity of Unidos Podemos as a long-term alliance. I think it's in Podemos and IU interests keeping the alliance or even deepening the ties between the different organisations, including ECP in Catalonia and the other regional alliances. Maybe Ada Colau or even Alberto Garzón (who has good approval rates) could be fitting candidates.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 07:20:22 PM
100% in

PP           33.03%       137
PSOE       22.66%        85
Podemos  21.10%        71 
C             13.05%        32


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 26, 2016, 07:22:37 PM
Senate count is mostly done as well

PP              130  (+6)
PSOE           43  (-4)
Podemos      16  (--)
ERC-CATSÍ    10 (+4)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 26, 2016, 08:45:13 PM
Leading party by province. Circles are the 52 municipalities over 125,000 inhabitants. Try to spot the differences with the map posted in page 35.

()

Results and swing*

PP 33.03% (+4.31%) 137 (+14 seats)

PSOE 22.66% (+0.65%) 85 (-5) seats

Unidos Podemos 21.1% (-3.23%) 71 (=) seats

C's 13.05% (-0.88%) 32 (-8) seats

ERC 2.63% (+0.34%) 9 (=) seats

CDC 2.01% (-0.24%) 8 (=) seats

EAJ-PNV 1.2% (=) 5 (-1) seats

EH Bildu 0.77% (-0.1%) 2 (=) seats

CC-PNC 0.33% (=) 1 (=) seats

Turnout 69.84% (-3.36%)

Raw vote swings:

PP +690,655  PSOE -105,984  UP -1,062,704  C's -376,677

* Percentages and swings referred only to votes cast in Spain. Overseas vote is not counted yet.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 27, 2016, 02:24:26 AM
Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zinneke on June 27, 2016, 02:53:12 AM
Just to answer two points I have seen on here :

- the likelihood of PNV joining a right-wing PP/C government is next to nothing due to their previous backing of a PP government being acrimonious (twas a long time ago though) resulting in the unilateral Devolution plan. Furthermore, the elcotral field in the Basque Countries is so competetive being seen as a PP sympathiser would be the final nail in the coffin of PNV hegemony in the region.

- C's will be included in any PP-PSOE coalition because they will have to present this bipartismo deal as some kind of political renewal and C's will suffer like the Libdems did in the next election because of it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 27, 2016, 03:26:25 AM
Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 27, 2016, 04:16:13 AM
Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.

Well, imagine how pissed I am since I really liked the agreement. It wasn't only the Brexit though, it seems - although we won't know until the post-electoral CIS - that Podemos' policy of pacts backfired on them, and only did not lose more votes by leeching them from IU.

Honest to God, I was enjoying the doom-and-gloom cries of peviously-overconfident podemitas on Facebook yesterday, except for this means 4 more years.

Quote
- the likelihood of PNV joining a right-wing PP/C government is next to nothing due to their previous backing of a PP government being acrimonious (twas a long time ago though) resulting in the unilateral Devolution plan. Furthermore, the elcotral field in the Basque Countries is so competetive being seen as a PP sympathiser would be the final nail in the coffin of PNV hegemony in the region.

The PNV will not join, but it can support it or abstain, like in '96. The PNV is polling at 17% of the vote in the Basque Country, and although the electoral system there helps them (25 seats each province regardless population), Podemos is a dangerous menace. They'll come first, but the PNV is menaced by Podemos. And this time, the classical PNV-PSE coalition will not do, they need someone else. It's not going to be Bildu, and it's not going to be Podemos ... Only the PP can deliver.

Plus the PNV is opportunistic/pragmatic (depends on POV), so they'll say they got dirty to best defend Euskadi's rights. It tends to work for them. Especially because a left-wing government seem unlikely, except for some weird PSOE-Podemos-Ciudadanos deal.

Quote
- C's will be included in any PP-PSOE coalition because they will have to present this bipartidismo deal as some kind of political renewal and C's will suffer like the Libdems did in the next election because of it.

It's possible but not likely. Although some voters of C's vote them as a non-radical renewal option, many of their voters are centrists and liberals who like moderation and support their party acting as a media res.

Seeing as how C's lost 8 seats with a 0.8 pp. loss, they are gonna go and demand 1) Electoral reform, 2) Rajoy's head and 3) Some other sh**t, like the National Education Pact, etc.

Quote from: http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/06/27/actualidad/1467014288_794033.html
Un dato clave: el 20-D Podemos (sin confluencias) e IU sumaban 16,4%. Ahora están en el 13,3%. Los socios autonómicos, por contra, se han mantenido en el entorno del 7,7%. La apuesta autonomista ha funcionado. Así que el fallo ha estado probablemente en el tan denostado eje ideológico. UP no ha logrado el anhelado efecto Carmena: la agregación del voto de centroizquierda en torno suyo como única candidatura viable frente al PP. De hecho, es probable que haya perdido tanto puristas (de IU, descontentos con las formas de un acuerdo dirigido por Podemos) como moderados, temerosos de la propuesta más frentista de Iglesias.

On 20D, Podemos (without the regional outfits) and IU added up to 16.4%. Now, they are at 13.3%. The autonomic outfits however, remained at around 7.7%. The autonomist strategy has worked. So the failure is in the infamous ideological axis. UP did not managed the much-desired Carmena effect: The sum of the centre-left vote around them as the only viable option against the PP. In fact, it has probably made them lose both true believers (from IU, unhappy with the forms of the agreement led by Podemos) and moderates, afraid of Iglesias' more frontist proposal.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 27, 2016, 12:07:47 PM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 27, 2016, 12:10:35 PM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 27, 2016, 12:51:34 PM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

Will abstension of PNV be enough? The government in this case has 171 votes with 174 against it.

And would the leftists in Nueva Canarias want it?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 27, 2016, 01:10:16 PM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

Will abstension of PNV be enough? The government in this case has 171 votes with 174 against it.

And would the leftists in Nueva Canarias want it?

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming. The government would have 169 votes, but there are only 174 against it in this scenario, so on the second ballot it would work (unless the Canarians or the PNV back out). Whether the Canarians or the PNV would be down, well...

This is just another variant of the PP/C's/PNV/Canarians axis I was discussing upthread (which received, in my count, 175 votes total -- it does add up to 176, a majority, if you add the PSOE-aligned Canarians to the mix. How realistic that addition is, I don't know).

And, honestly, would PP even back a technocrat after having come in first in two elections straight? I think they could be motivated to dump Rajoy in favor of someone else (Rivera even suggested some names in an interview; he said Javier Maroto and Fernando Martinez Maillo would both be acceptable, though Maillo criticized Rivera for even bringing his name up), but they  may outright vote against some technocrat who comes from outside the party. PSOE/C's, as we've already seen, is not sufficient to form government, and both just lost seats in the elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 27, 2016, 01:20:21 PM

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming.

If that were the case, PNV and CC would be all you needed. Nueva Canarias is only there to get the 176th vote.

But it is not the case. I just checked the constitution. On the second vote you, indeed, only need a plurality instead of majority. This is why PSOE abstaining works. However, if PNV abstains and everybody else votes predictably, it will be, at best (even with Nuevas Canarias in favor of PP) 171 in favor, 174 against, and this is NOT enough. PNV must actively support the PP government, or else it simply does not have enough votes. Curiously, CDC abstaining, while PNV votes against, would have been enough.

Article 33, Section 3: Si el Congreso de los Diputados, por el voto de la mayoría absoluta de sus miembros, otorgare su confianza a dicho candidato, el Rey le nombrará Presidente. De no alcanzarse dicha mayoría, se someterá la misma propuesta a nueva votación cuarenta y ocho horas después de la anterior, y la confianza se entenderá otorgada si obtuviere la mayoría simple.

If the Congress of Deputies, by the vote of an absolute majority of its members gives its confidence to the said candidate, the King names him President. If the said majority is not reached, the same proposal is submitted to a new vote fourty eight hours after the previous one, and the confidence shall be understood given if it obtains a simple majority <plurality>.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 27, 2016, 01:31:23 PM

And, honestly, would PP even back a technocrat after having come in first in two elections straight?

As long as C is on board, PP agreement is not necessary.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 27, 2016, 01:33:58 PM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

PP government with C's as junior coalition partner thanks to the support/abstention of PNV (5 seats), CC (1 seat) and Nueva Canaria (1 seat, individual party that however ran with the PSOE in the election but does not answer to its whip iirc)

The agreement between PSOE and Nueva Canarias (NC) only binds centre-left regionalists to support the investiture of the socialist candidate. Elected MP Pedro Quevedo stated that he's more inclined to vote against Rajoy and in neither case he will support the PP candidate, but he doesn't discard to abstain previous consultation with PSOE. This time the PSOE-NC coalition came second in Las Palmas province and NC won a seat in the Senate (Gran Canaria island).

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming. The government would have 169 votes, but there are only 174 against it in this scenario, so on the second ballot it would work (unless the Canarians or the PNV back out). Whether the Canarians or the PNV would be down, well...

In the second ballot the candidate needs a plurality, that is to say more votes in favour than against. It's like ag said just a moment ago.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 27, 2016, 01:59:13 PM
Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.

Well, imagine how pissed I am since I really liked the agreement. It wasn't only the Brexit though, it seems - although we won't know until the post-electoral CIS - that Podemos' policy of pacts backfired on them, and only did not lose more votes by leeching them from IU.

Honest to God, I was enjoying the doom-and-gloom cries of peviously-overconfident podemitas on Facebook yesterday, except for this means 4 more years.

Obviously it wasn't only Brexit, but it's logical to think that finally it created a climate of fear that had a significant effect on voting. The question is that polls were suggesting that the period of fruitless talks was eroding Podemos, while IU was growing because of the "constructive" attitude of Alberto Garzón and his good public image. When the UP alliance was announced, polls said that it was getting momentum and no one predicted that PSOE was going to hold the second place in popular vote. What happened them? As you say, we'll have to wait for the CIS post-election survey. 'Experts' will have to sound convincing, because this time polling industry failed miserably. It's interesting the Jorge Galindo article that you linked.

On a side note, I abstained myself of log in Facebook or other social networks on Sunday. I have friends that are activists and they were overconfident about the UP success. I can't blame them because polls said what they said. I never engage in discussions with social network activists of whatever ideology, on the other hand. Since Brexit happened, my gut told me that it would have an effect. Anyway, I never imagined this result.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 27, 2016, 02:15:54 PM
Well, that was one considerable waste of time, money and energy.

Sadly, this is true. Personally I didn't like the PSOE-C's agreement, but in hindsight it would have been preferable that Podemos abstained in the investiture and gave Pedro Sánchez a try. I think that Errejón was somewhat favourable to that option. Podemos would have been as the main opposition force in the Left. Anyway it was very complicated and the increasing hostility between Podemos and C's didn't help the "new politics" and the "democratic regeneration". Also, who could have imagined the impact of Brexit? Finally, it's truly sad that corruption doesn't pay. Fear is much stronger than decency, it seems.

Well, imagine how pissed I am since I really liked the agreement. It wasn't only the Brexit though, it seems - although we won't know until the post-electoral CIS - that Podemos' policy of pacts backfired on them, and only did not lose more votes by leeching them from IU.

Honest to God, I was enjoying the doom-and-gloom cries of peviously-overconfident podemitas on Facebook yesterday, except for this means 4 more years.

Obviously it wasn't only Brexit, but it's logical to think that finally it created a climate of fear that had a significant effect on voting. The question is that polls were suggesting that the period of fruitless talks was eroding Podemos, while IU was growing because of the "constructive" attitude of Alberto Garzón and his good public image. When the UP alliance was announced, polls said that it was getting momentum and no one predicted that PSOE was going to hold the second place in popular vote. What happened them? As you say, we'll have to wait for the CIS post-election survey. 'Experts' will have to sound convincing, because this time polling industry failed miserably. It's interesting the Jorge Galindo article that you linked.

On a side note, I abstained myself of log in Facebook or other social networks on Sunday. I have friends that are activists and they were overconfident about the UP success. I can't blame them because polls said what they said. I never engage in discussions with social network activists of whatever ideology, on the other hand. Since Brexit happened, my gut told me that it would have an effect. Anyway, I never imagined this result.  

I don't either, but when they start decrying 'electoral fraud' or pucherazos or calling for the elderly and the people in rural Spain to f-word off and die well... It gets old quickly.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 27, 2016, 02:23:29 PM
I don't either, but when they start decrying 'electoral fraud' or pucherazos or calling for the elderly and the people in rural Spain to f-word off and die well... It gets old quickly.

Yes, I know what are you talking about. I'm pretty sure that oranges and the rest of parties have this type of 'social network activists', that in most cases are just internet trolls. My activist friends are not of that type, but sometimes they piss me with some comments. Maybe activism is incompatible with having a critical eye. At least that's my impression in most cases.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2016, 02:20:22 AM
Brexit effect elevated Mariano Rajoy. Summary of the Enric Juliana chronicle in La Vanguardia.

24 million of Spaniards went to vote three days after Brexit, under a continuous flood of apocalyptic messages on the future of their employments, business, savings and pension plans. Nearly 8 million chose to leave things as they were. "We are in a bad situation, but we could be even worse". It's impossible to decipher the election result without the dark echoes of Brexit.

PP was going up slowly in the final days of the campaign, according to daily polls for internal consumption of parties and companies. That rise accelerated suddenly on Saturday and Sunday (Campaign finished on Friday night. The day prior to the vote is called "day of reflection"and there are no political events). PP rose from 30% to 33% in the weekend.

Also, Mariano Rajoy benefitted from other occurrence: more than one million of voters from Podemos and IU decided to stay at home or support PSOE in order to prevent its collapse. That was the way the Brexit effect affected the less disciplined detachment of the "New Left". In May they voted the "Mayors of Change". In December they backed Pablo Iglesias as a protest vote. This time they thought twice. Some of them because of dissatisfaction with the lack of agreement between parties. Some others because they don't like IU and the communist and republican banners. Others because they are IU supporters and don't trust the podemista professors. And the sinister echoes of Brexit: leftist voters have savings and pension plans too. After his conversion to socialdemocracy, between Friday and Sunday Pablo Iglesias lacked the resources to style himself as a champion of stability. The strategy of polarisation put forward by PP and wanted by Iglesias trapped the Podemos leader. Now there's a difficult discussion inside Podemos. Errejón supporters think that the alliance with IU undermined them because the Frente Popular is a significant that creates rejection. Followers of Pablo Iglesias think the campaign was not incisive enough. Juan Carlos Monedero, who is openly confronted to Errejón, thinks that Iglesias performed in the televised debate as a toothless lion.

The sudden acceleration of European contradictions mobilised millions of Spanish voters on the defensive, especially in the South. Podemos resisted better in the Basque Country and Catalonia thanks to its incardination in their respective national political spaces. The Spanish significant problem -a state with diverse nations- is reflected in the different colours of these regions on the map.

Mariano Rajoy has better cards to gain the investiture. The better results and the delicate European juncture play in his favour. Pedro Sánchez has saved his face, but he's too weak to defy the PSOE's old guard. PSOE needs to assimilate the result, rethink itself and leave the initiative to others. Albert Rivera has to deal with his previous veto to Rajoy. There will be a government by September, Berlin willing.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160628/402806767588/efecto-brexit.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on June 28, 2016, 11:19:18 AM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 28, 2016, 11:36:13 AM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game.  

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Vosem on June 28, 2016, 12:25:45 PM

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming.

If that were the case, PNV and CC would be all you needed. Nueva Canarias is only there to get the 176th vote.

But it is not the case. I just checked the constitution. On the second vote you, indeed, only need a plurality instead of majority. This is why PSOE abstaining works. However, if PNV abstains and everybody else votes predictably, it will be, at best (even with Nuevas Canarias in favor of PP) 171 in favor, 174 against, and this is NOT enough. PNV must actively support the PP government, or else it simply does not have enough votes. Curiously, CDC abstaining, while PNV votes against, would have been enough.

Article 33, Section 3: Si el Congreso de los Diputados, por el voto de la mayoría absoluta de sus miembros, otorgare su confianza a dicho candidato, el Rey le nombrará Presidente. De no alcanzarse dicha mayoría, se someterá la misma propuesta a nueva votación cuarenta y ocho horas después de la anterior, y la confianza se entenderá otorgada si obtuviere la mayoría simple.

If the Congress of Deputies, by the vote of an absolute majority of its members gives its confidence to the said candidate, the King names him President. If the said majority is not reached, the same proposal is submitted to a new vote fourty eight hours after the previous one, and the confidence shall be understood given if it obtains a simple majority <plurality>.


Ah. I was wrong. Sorry.

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.

Where is the line between mainline PP politician and PP-affiliated technocrat? Even convincing PP to dump Rajoy in negotiations doesn't seem like it's going to be easy, and if the technocrat isn't clearly a member of PP, PP may not support him (and if he is, what difference is there between the technocrat and the mainline politician?). It seems like there's a lot more appetite for nonpartisan, technocratic governance among the PSOE than the PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2016, 02:39:37 PM
PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game.  

Neither PSOE nor Ciudadanos can easily withdraw what once was said. Albert Rivera tries to take the burden of backing Rajoy off by saying that only PSOE can supply enough support for the investiture. PSOE in neither case can support Rajoy, but once the dust settles they could consider abstaining for the shake of "stability". Of course there is the Monti option, but Rajoy is vindicated by the result and it's not easy that he's going to step aside. These things take time, but there won't be a third election.

EDIT: The king can't invite a technocrat without having secured said person is backed by someone.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zinneke on June 28, 2016, 02:57:21 PM
Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2016, 03:20:09 PM
Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

I should check to say if that's legally possible. I can tell you that the king is not going to invite someone who is not a party leader, unless said person is backed by a previous agreement between parties. During the previous period of talks, it was apparent that King Felipe was very careful in not going beyond his role and always tried to maintain a strict neutrality. Furthermore, after the December elections Rajoy and his Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría tried to shorten the period to call for a new election, because PP never had the intent to negotiate with other parties. Felipe refused to indulge that pretension and invited Sánchez.

I think that it's more likely that Rajoy stays as PM than the other options, but it's too soon to make predictions. Now the situation has changed and Rajoy must take the initiative.

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?

The CUP itself is tearing apart. There is a motion of confidence in September. In case Carles Puigdemont doesn't pass it, he will have to call new elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 28, 2016, 03:24:08 PM

EDIT: The king can't invite a technocrat without having secured said person is backed by someone.

Could the King, or a surrogate, quietly propose somebody to the party leaders? Would that be viewed as a no-no?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Upsilon on June 28, 2016, 06:33:45 PM
Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The problem doesn't seem to be the end of bipartisan system, but the fact that the catalan parties wont's support any government... If they have the balance of power, and this is the cas now, nothing can be done.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: ag on June 28, 2016, 07:16:17 PM
Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The problem doesn't seem to be the end of bipartisan system, but the fact that the catalan parties wont's support any government... If they have the balance of power, and this is the cas now, nothing can be done.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Good observation.

Of course, the Catalan parties would happily support any government that gives them the referendum :)

Also, an interesting observation concerning outcomes of close elections in the (still) UK :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on June 29, 2016, 02:50:43 AM
Just a comment...
So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Yes, Catalonia is at the core of the problem. That's something that have stressed Pedro Sánchez in the investiture debate and the Catalan parties. Sánchez to say that an agreement with Podemos would have required the support of ERC or CDC and that was unacceptable for the PSOE. ERC and CDC spokepersons to say that, unless they solve the "Catalan problem", Spain will remain ungovernable.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

PSOE won majorities in 1982 and 1986. PP in 2000 and 2011.

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The surge of Podemos and Ciudadanos and the end of the two-party system reflect, among other things, a sharp generational split. To take an example, the last victory of PSOE was in 2008. That year candidate José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was backed by more than 11 million of votes. Seven years later (December 2015), those 11 million appear divided almost evenly in half. Most youth and the "new middle classes" went with Podemos, while PSOE retained retired people and housewives and manual workers splitted in two. Hence, the split of the progressive vote outlines a post-classist scenario where the class conflict between manual workers and professionals is replaced by an intergenerational conflict between passive and active classes, in which the latter struggle in the increasingly precarious labour market. The share of the votes between PP and C's was more uneven but their base of support is more or less similar. So we have that establishment parties are backed by a coalition of passive classes while youngsters back the "new politics". The problem is that Spain presents a demographic imbalance and a very low birth rate: this year deaths exceeded births for the first time. At the electoral level, this means that passive classes and older generations prevail and any danger sign will reinforce their bet for security over any other consideration. This time Brexit was that signal. So perhaps, in order to reconcile the right of the younger people to have a vital horizon and the right of the older people to preserve their social achievements, the sensible solution would have been an intergenerational pact. According to an article in El País by UNED professor Juan Jesús González, after the December elections it was the moment for a triangulation between the two parties that represent the "new politics" (Podemos and C's) and the PSOE. González blames mainly Pablo Iglesias, but in my opinion Albert Rivera was equally intransigent. The "Cross Coalition" wanted by Sánchez was impossible due to the crossed vetoes between Podemos and C's.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on June 29, 2016, 04:06:39 AM
Just a comment...
So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Yes, Catalonia is at the core of the problem. That's something that have stressed Pedro Sánchez in the investiture debate and the Catalan parties. Sánchez to say that an agreement with Podemos would have required the support of ERC or CDC and that was unacceptable for the PSOE. ERC and CDC spokepersons to say that, unless they solve the "Catalan problem", Spain will remain ungovernable.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

PSOE won majorities in 1982 and 1986. PP in 2000 and 2011.


And technically also in '89, as the absence of the two HB deputies meant the PSOE had the absolute majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on July 03, 2016, 12:45:56 PM
Variation in percentage of the vote for Unidos Podemos, with regard to the addition of the Podemos and IU (and MÉS in the Balearic Islands) vote in December 2015.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on July 03, 2016, 04:45:52 PM
Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on July 04, 2016, 04:52:13 AM
Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

Yes, it'd be interesting so I will make a PSOE map in a few days.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Zinneke on July 04, 2016, 07:19:14 AM
Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on July 06, 2016, 02:33:21 PM
Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016

()

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 07, 2016, 02:35:12 AM
So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Nanwe on July 07, 2016, 03:39:28 AM
Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016



Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: jaichind on July 07, 2016, 05:25:52 AM
Felipe Gonzalez Urges PSOE Not to Block Rajoy Minority Govt
Thursday, July 7, 2016 02:55 AM
by Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez said in an article in El Pais newspaper that if necessary his party should not block a minority govt led by acting PM Mariano Rajoy.
Socialists role should be as a “responsible opposition” to PP; party should not enter a coalition with Rajoy, Gonzalez says
Everyone agrees that third round of elections in Spain is not an option: Gonzalez


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on July 07, 2016, 07:11:30 AM
So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?

It's a bit more nuanced than that and I think it depends on the region or the province. At general level, it seems plausible that PP gains came mainly from Ciudadanos and abstentionists. The PP campaign has proved effective in attracting those groups of voters (and the appeal to the voters' fear was arguably boosted by the repercussion of Brexit in media). Also, the PP campaign was focused in rural areas and social groups where they are strong like retired people and pensioners. As well, they worked well in smaller provinces with seats depending on small vote swings. As I said before, I think that PP could have received some PSOE transfers in the rural areas of Southern Spain, but maybe they were small.

As for the UP loses, they are likely due to multiple factors. The bulk of the UP loses went to abstention, but in places like Madrid and urban areas like Zaragoza, Valencia and others it's very likely an UP-PSOE transfer. Maybe there was a small transfer in some northern regions. However, Podemos resisted better in Catalonia, Basque Country and Navarre. In Catalonia ECP lost some 80k voters due to the lower turnout, but in terms of vote share and seats stayed the same. In Basque Country and Navarre UP had little gains in vote share and won an extra seat in Biscay province at the expense of the PNV. The socialists had very similar results in Catalonia, losing one seat in Lleida province to the PP due to a very small vote swing. In the Basque Country and Navarre, they improved very slightly. In the Basque Country the leftwing nationalist EH Bildu lost nearly 2% of the vote share and in Navarre Geroa Bai plummeted. Such loses are attributable to the 'Podemos effect'.

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.

Maybe the repercussion of the negotiations had some effect in Madrid and other places. However, there are more factors that can explain the reasons why more than 1 million of the Podemos and IU voters in December didn't support UP in June. Among others, Podemos and IU voters unhappy with the alliance, the fear factor (PP campaign and Brexit), negative campaigning in media and at the justice courts (the week after the elections, the judge denied by the sixth time that lawsuit alleging illegal financing fro Venezuela and Iran due to blatant inconsistency, but it appeared in media during the campaign), voter fatigue and lack of electoral tension, etcetera. We'll have to wait the CIS post-election survey or other analyses.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on July 08, 2016, 09:12:27 AM
Leading party in the municipality of Madrid by census section:

()

The map is taken from here:

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/madrid/2016-06-25/calles-madrid-votos-pp-podemos-elecciones-generales_1222988/
 
There is a census section located in Salamanca neighbourhood where PP got 77.7% of the vote. The landmark building of this section is Amboage Palace, which was the provisional site of the City Hall during the Civil War and was sold to Italy in 1940 to become in the Italian embassy. A woman called Candela says that she supports PP because it has government experience, but she thinks that perhaps Rajoy must be replaced because everybody is against him. She shares the typical opinion of all PP voters: "there is corruption in all parties".

In Zurita street, located in the Lavapiés neighbourhood (District Centro), there is a site called Teatro del Barrio, the place where Podemos was launched. It's a cultural cooperative managed by actor and Podemos activist Alberto San Juan. UP got 47% in the census section that covers two blocks of Zurita streets featuring Teatro del Barrio and a venue called La Marabunta, a mix of café and bookstore where Podemos was born. Apparently, there is another census section in Lavapiés where UP got 56.7%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: DavidB. on July 09, 2016, 08:06:23 AM
The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

()

::)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26)
Post by: Velasco on July 09, 2016, 09:38:41 AM
The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on July 18, 2016, 04:54:47 PM
The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".
At first I thought it was an Arab man and an Israeli man making out, which I found pretty cool ! Then it struck me and... it's not of very good taste...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 20, 2016, 01:34:37 AM
Ana Pastor (PP) elected new speaker of Congress with the support of Ciudadanos. Pío Escudero (PP) re-elected speaker of the Senate.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/19/inenglish/1468915263_766500.html

Quote
Spain’s parliament held its inaugural session on Tuesday at 10am, when 350 deputies and 266 senators began voting for the speakers of both houses following the repeat national election of June 26.

Ana Pastor of the Popular Party (PP) became the new speaker of Congress in a run-off vote held in the lower house shortly before noon. With 169 votes, she beat out the Socialist candidate, Patxi López (155), who was the speaker in the previous, short-lived Congress.

“I am happy but concerned. This will not be an easy term,” said Pastor on Tuesday morning.

But the new term begins with no clear picture of who will ultimately be the new prime minister. Although the most likely candidate is Mariano Rajoy, who has been at the helm of a caretaker government since the first inconclusive election of December 20, the conservative politician has yet to confirm that he will bid for the post.

Although his Popular Party (PP) emerged the winner on June 26 with 137 seats, it is still well short of the 176 required for a congressional majority. And so far, attempts at building coalitions with other parties have failed – as they did earlier this year, leading to the fresh election.

At a meeting of top PP officials, participants emerged with the feeling that Rajoy is now ready to try to form a minority government rather than attempt a grand coalition with the Socialists (PSOE). Although he did not say so in so many words, Rajoy also suggested that his new government will undergo a generational change.

But the Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, on Monday insinuated that he might be open to attempting a parliamentary majority with Unidos Podemos and regional parties if Rajoy fails in his bid to be reinstated.

“The 17 deputies from Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and Convergència need to be taken out of limbo,” he told a group of aides at a closed-door meeting, in a reference to Catalan nationalist parties (...)

Pastor's candidacy was the result of a preliminary deal with the emerging Ciudadanos party over the speaker of Congress and the makeup of the Mesa del Congreso, the lower house’s governing board.

Under the terms of the agreement, Rajoy put forward Pastor, a veteran party member and trusted aide of his. But her name only came forward after Rajoy’s two other suggestions were struck down by Ciudadanos. One was acting interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, who was recently embroiled in a political scandal, and the second was PP Secretary General María Dolores de Cospedal, who is viewed as too partisan.

Meanwhile, Ciudadanos will get two seats on the Mesa, even though its election results (32) did not entitle the party to any. The Socialist Party (PSOE) and the anti-austerity Podemos each get two representatives, while the PP gets three.

This arrangement will only come to pass if other forces in Congress fail to come up with an alternative. This, however, would require a difficult combination of PSOE, Podemos and regional parties that defend independence from Spain in varying degrees.

Relations between the Socialists and Podemos, once considered potential partners in a leftist coalition, have been deteriorating since the December elections. The former have already stated that they will vote for their own candidate to head the lower chamber, Patxi López – who was speaker of the previous, short-lived Congress – rather than for Podemos’ candidate, Xavier Domènech.

In other news, CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) was renamed PDC (Catalan Democratic Party) on July 10.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Democratic_Party


It's not of very good taste, indeed. It's just an inept cartoon that gives a good pretext to the other party's outrage.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on July 23, 2016, 08:01:01 AM
Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy studying formulas to dissolve parliament and call third election if there’s no government by September, El Mundo newspaper reports, citing unnamed sources.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on July 26, 2016, 04:45:13 AM
PP Would Win Up to 144 Seats in 3rd Elections: La Razon Poll

(Bloomberg) -- People’s Party would win up to 144 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.
Socialists would win 83-85 seats vs 85 now; Unidos Podemos up to 72 seats vs 71 now; Ciudadanos 30-31 seats vs 32
Voter participation would drop to 61% from 66%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 28, 2016, 06:30:45 AM
King Felipe begun talks with party leaders this week. There is an awful sense of deja vu.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/26/inenglish/1469521499_441254.html?rel=mas

Quote
A decisive week in Spanish politics has begun, with the first of several meetings between party leaders and King Felipe VI scheduled for Tuesday (...)

In order to become the next prime minister, Rajoy needs other parties to cast yes votes – or at the very least to abstain – at the investiture vote that should take place in early August in Congress. But Rajoy seems set to follow the same strategy he adopted after December's gridlock: refusing to even stand for reinstatement if he is not previously guaranteed success.

Rajoy’s ideal situation would be a yes vote from Ciudadanos in the first round of the investiture vote, which would add 32 seats to his own for a total of 169 out of the 176 he needs. This would pressure the PSOE into conceding an abstention in the run-off, when all that is required is more yes votes than no votes in the 350-seat chamber.

But with just 48 hours to go before Felipe VI meets with the leaders of Spain’s four main parties – including the anti-austerity Podemos – Sánchez and Rivera are refusing to go along, saying that it is not up to them to “do Rajoy’s job.” (...)

This morning Felipe VI met with C's leader Albert Rivera, who proposed two alternatives to the king: PP-PSOE-C's coalition without Mariano Rajoy or PP minority government with the PSOE abstention in the investiture. The first alternative was dismissed by Rajoy yesterday, when he gave clear expression of his desire to stay. The second alternative has been dismissed by PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, who refuses to concede abstention. Albert Rivera opposes to vote for the acting PM, so the gridlock continues.

The meeeting between King Felipe and Pablo Iglesias already took place.

In other news, the Parliament of Catalonia defies Constitutional Court by passing a text that sets the agenda for the "disconnection' from Spain. JxSí and the CUP voted in favour, while PP and C's MPs left the chamber in protest, PSC members stayed in but didn't vote and CSP voted against. Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont will face a motion of confidence on September 28.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on July 31, 2016, 09:28:02 AM
Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 01, 2016, 01:10:18 PM
Mariano Rajoy ready to negotiate 125 points with PSOE and Ciudadanos, says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/01/inenglish/1470041109_608806.html

Quote
Spanish acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy will meet with two opposition leaders this week in a bid to secure enough support to break a seven-month deadlock and form a government.

The Popular Party (PP) candidate wants to reach a deal in August, in time to get important legislation passed, including the 2017 budget and EU fiscal policy requirements.

So far, Socialist Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez and Ciudadanos president Albert Rivera have refused to endorse Rajoy, whose PP earned 137 seats at the repeat election of June 26. A congressional majority requires 176 seats.

Both say that Rajoy’s proposals for a governing program, which he sent them last month, simply mirror the PP’s campaign platform.

Now, Rajoy’s team has compared this program with the joint governing agreement that the Socialists and Ciudadanos came up with following the original election of December 20, and found 125 points in common.

Rajoy will use this apparent common ground to argue that “PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos share principles and priorities that are essential to the general interest of Spaniards.” He will meet with Sánchez and Rivera on Tuesday and Wednesday, shortly after King Felipe VI tasked him with trying to form a government (...)

Constitutional Court suspends the resolution made by the Parliament of Catalonia for the "disconnection" and the independence. Rajoy's administration demanded the Court to deal with speaker Carme Forcadell by means of criminal law, for being a "person clearly involved" who leads an institution (the Catalan Parliament) that "violates" the constitutional state. The Court just ruled to notice personally premier Carles Puigdemont, Mrs Forcadell and other officials their eventual responsibility in case the suspension is ignored.

Basque Country and Galicia will hold elections together on September 25.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on August 01, 2016, 03:13:35 PM
Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia

The problem with Metroscopia's poll is that basically the wording is very treacherous.

The question is "If in order to prevent the repetition of the elections, the only alternative would be for the PSOE to abstain and let Rajoy govern in exchange of a series of agreed to reform, what would you prefer?

a) PSOE abstention
b) Electoral repetition

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 03, 2016, 08:52:52 AM
I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jeron on August 10, 2016, 08:45:58 AM
I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.

Last time i read El Pais, it wasn't as clear about this as you write here. Yes they think that PSOE should possibly abstain, but they also wrote that some of the policies proposed by PP are unacceptable for PSOE.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on August 12, 2016, 07:34:48 AM
A bit of an (admittedly outdate but useful, data is from 2014) social analysis of how the broad Spanish middle class votes. Data from here: http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/download.html?file=ESS7e02&y=2014 (http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/download.html?file=ESS7e02&y=2014), work is not mine, by the way.

(Sectorial) Social Class and Voting in Spain

The graphic below allow us to see which social classes are over- or underrepresented in the various main Spanish political parties. National average is 0.

()

The PP is over-represented amongst small businessmen and to a lesser degree amongst the group of managers and administrators.

The PSOE is markedly the party of industrial production workers, the social class traditionally linked to the social-democratic parties, but also to the right-wing populist parties in other countries. This group is one of the so-called 'losers of globalisation'.

Podemos particularly attracts the socio-cultural liberal professionals, a category that also tends to be over-represented in the new left or green parties in various European countries.

Ciudadanos is the most voted party by managers and administrators, although it is also over-represented amongst technical professionals.

The results seem to confirm a new division in the salaried middle class (http://www.olemiss.edu/courses/pol628/kriesi98.pdf) between the socio-cultural professionals and the administrators and managers that is also observable in other countrues, like Germany, Great Britain, Sweden or Switzerland. An individual's position in the national work structure seems to be elated to political behaviour in Spain too, although without taking into account the strong duality of the Spanish labour market.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 20, 2016, 07:35:29 AM
PP spokesman on the investiture negotiations between PP and Ciudadanos:
 "This is the beginning of a love affair"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/19/inenglish/1471612658_302672.html

Quote

Having signed up to a series of anti-corruption measures imposed by Ciudadanos on Friday morning, the Popular Party (PP) is now clearly hoping it can count on the emerging party’s support to form a government and end a political stalemate that has left Spain rudderless for more than eight months, thus avoiding a third general election in a year.

“This is the beginning of a love affair,” said a smiling PP spokesman, Javier Hernando, as he shook hands with his opposite number in Ciudadanos, Juan Carlos Girauta, on Friday in Congress after signing an anti-corruption pact. The deal was part of a memorandum of six measures Ciudadanos presented to the PP last week.

But the leader of the emerging center-right group, Albert Rivera, who is still wary of being pulled into a marriage of convenience by the PP, continued to insist that his party’s demands that the PP take specific measures to combat corruption is simply a pre-condition for voting with the PP when interim Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appears before Congress at the upcoming investiture debate, which will start on August 30.

At present Mariano Rajoy has 170 votes: PP, C's and the Canary Coalition. No change of stance from PSOE:

Quote
But speaking immediately after the PP and Ciudadanos’ announcement, Pedro Sánchez reiterated his party’s refusal to support Rajoy in any way. “The PSOE is the alternative, not a potential ally,” he said, insisting again that he would vote against Rajoy at the investiture.

“The PSOE will vote against the investiture and the budget, which will simply mean more cuts,” said Sánchez.

He also criticized the date for the start of the investiture debate, pointing out that should it fail, a third general election would take place on December 25.

Sánchez suggested that should Rajoy fail to win a vote, it would not be his party’s responsibility and that the PP would be able find allies in Congress, noting that regional parties supported the PP’s choice for speaker of Congress, Ana Pastor, in July (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on August 22, 2016, 06:17:23 AM
http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/08/22/57ba0c4822601df33c8b459e.html

As much as 54% of PSOE voters believe party should abstain if PP and C reach a pact for formation of Spanish govt, El Mundo reports, citing opinion poll. 55% of PSOE voters prefer PP-led govt now instead of third round of elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 30, 2016, 09:52:15 PM
Mariano Rajoy expected to fail in first investiture attempt,

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/30/inenglish/1472566760_282741.html

Quote
Spain’s acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy of the Popular Party (PP), addressed Congress on Tuesday afternoon at the outset of an investiture debate at which the conservative chief is lacking the necessary support to be voted back in as the country’s leader (...)

While Rajoy has secured the support of emerging center-right group Ciudadanos, he is still short of votes at the investiture debate. He is likely to fail at the first round, at which he will need an absolute majority of 176 votes from deputies, and looks set to lose the second round also, at which a simple majority of more yes votes than no would suffice. The main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) is refusing to abstain at the second vote, scheduled for Friday, meaning Rajoy’s bid would be doomed to failure (...)

Key regional elections are scheduled on September 25 in Galicia and Basque Country. Mariano Rajoy hopes to win a big victory for PP in Galicia. In the Basque Country the ruling PNV might need both PSOE and PP to secure a majority in regional parliament. After these elections, a second investiture attempt could take place in October. By then, pressure on PSOE leadership to abstain could increase. Depending on results, even Basque nationalists could reconsider their vote. There still exists a very remote possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition government with the support of Basque and Catalan nationalists. In case no candidate is elected, a new election would take place on Christmas Day. In order to avoid that eventuality, PSOE proposed to reduce the duration of the electoral campaign from two weeks to just one. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 31, 2016, 01:37:50 PM
Mr Rajoy fails:  Yes 170; No 180

Acting PM reveals during the investiture debate that Colombian government and the FARC will sign their peace deal on September 26, a date that should be kept in secret. The news has been received with some perplexity in Bogota. Shame.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on September 05, 2016, 08:19:59 AM
http://www.larazon.es/espana/pp-y-c-s-sumarian-mayoria-absoluta-CD13454042#

PP would win up to 146 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.  PSOE would win 82-85 seats vs 85 now; Podemos 67-70 seats vs 71 now, C 30-31 seats vs 32
In theory, PP and C will then have majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 05, 2016, 11:40:18 AM
Any news on the vote of confidence that the Catalan government was due to hold?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 06, 2016, 07:15:04 PM
Velasco or jaichind, can you tell us something more about Galician and Basque elections this month?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 22, 2016, 03:13:52 PM
Velasco or jaichind, can you tell us something more about Galician and Basque elections this month?

Apparently there's going to be little surprise or emotion in Basque and Galician elections on next Sunday. Ruling parties are expected to win comfortably in both regions and the only questions left are: 1) Will Alberto Núñez Feijoó (PP) win a majority in Galicia?; and 2) Which will be the main opposition party in Basque and Galician parliaments?

In the Basque Country the Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) is polling between 35% and 37% (34.2% in 2012); EH Bildu would come in second place and is polling between 19% and 21% (24.7% in 2012); Elkarrekin Podemos (Podemos, IU, Equo) is polling between 17% and 19%; PSE-EE (PSOE) is between 11% and 12% (18.9% in 2012); PP is between 8% and 10% (11.6% in 2012); and Ciudadanos is between 2% and 3% (some polls say C's will win a seat in Álava and others say it won't).

Main candidates:

EAJ-PNV: Incumbent lehendakari (premier) Íñigo Urkullu.

EH Bildu: Arnaldo Otegi was released from prison in March, on having served his sentence (he was convicted of having tried to reorganize Batasuna, outlawed because of links to ETA). Despite the same sentence disqualified Otegi from holding public office until 2021, EH Bildu proclaimed him candidate. In August the Gipuzkoa provincial electoral commission ruled that Otegi couldn't run. He's campaigning anyway as unofficial candidate, spiritual leader or martyr of the cause.

Elkarrekin Podemos: The purple party pretended to hire an independent and renowned figure to contest the regional election. After a couple of unsuccessful attempts, Podemos picked odontologist Pilar Zabala, who is sister of an alleged ETA activist tortured and killed in 1983 by the GAL paramilitary group.

PSE-EE (PSOE): Idoia Mendia, who replaced former lehendakari Patxi López in the party leadership and was the spokeswoman of the Basque government between 2009 and 2012.

Popular Party: Alfonso Alonso. Mayor of Vitoria between 1999 and 2007, PP spokesman in the Congress of Deputies between 2011 and 2014 and Minister of Health between December 2014 and August 2016.

Ciudadanos: A certain Nicolás de Miguel tops the list in Álava.

In all likelihood Mr Urkullu will be elected for a second term with the support of Basque socialists.

In Galicia PP is polling between 42% and 46% (45.8% in 2012) and would win a majority or would be on the verge of it; En Marea (Podemos, IU, Anova) is polling between 20% and 26% (AGE got 13.9% in 2012); PSOE between 17% and 20% (20.6% in 2012); BNG between 5% and 7% (10.1% in 2012); and Ciudadanos between 3% and 5% (in case oranges get 5% or more in the provinces of A Coruña or Pontevedra, they'll win seats; otherwise they won't).

The options in play are:

1) PP majority: Incumbent Alberto Núñez Feijoó is elected for a third term.
2) PP plurality: a) En Marea, PSOE and BNG add a majority. Luis Villares (En Marea) or Xoaquin Fernández Leiceaga (PSOE) would be elected to head a coalition government, depending on which party comes second. b) C's wins seats in the regional parliament and supports PP candidate in the investiture (no leftwing majority).  



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 23, 2016, 05:35:43 AM
El País: "Political deadlock in Spain takes toll on increasingly divided parties"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/23/inenglish/1474618460_544509.html

Quote
After two general elections and the threat of a third looming ever closer, a nine-month political stalemate in Spain is taking its toll on all the country’s political parties.

The conservative Popular Party (PP), which won the most votes in the December and June elections, but fell short of a majority both times, is no closer to finding the necessary allies to put together a fully functional government.

   
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez at a party rally in Bilbao.
Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez at a party rally in Bilbao. FERNANDO DOMINGO-ALDAMA EL PAÍS

After two general elections and the threat of a third looming ever closer, a nine-month political stalemate in Spain is taking its toll on all the country’s political parties.

The conservative Popular Party (PP), which won the most votes in the December and June elections, but fell short of a majority both times, is no closer to finding the necessary allies to put together a fully functional government.
PUBLICIDAD
inRead invented by Teads

    It makes no sense to sell out on our principles or to betray our ideological code

Emiliano García-Page, premier of Castilla-La Mancha

And the main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) is increasingly divided over whether it should try to cobble together an alternative majority through deals with regional parties – some of which favor independence from Spain – or whether it should simply let acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy form a minority government.

The secretary general of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, is becoming increasingly isolated in his defense of the first option. Six of the seven Socialists serving as regional premiers in Spain do not want Sánchez to attempt a coalition with the left-leaning anti-austerity Podemos, the emerging center reform party Ciudadanos, or others.

It would not even be the first time he has tried. Following the elections of December 20, 2015, Sánchez reached a preliminary deal with Ciudadanos, but the combined congressional presence with the Socialists was not enough for a majority and Podemos refused to join the alliance.

The deadlock led to a second national election on June 26, with similar results. This Thursday, at a party event in the Basque city of Bilbao, Sánchez made a public appeal to Pablo Iglesias and Albert Rivera, the leaders of Podemos and Ciudadanos respectively, to “work together to throw out the government of Mariano Rajoy.”

“There are many things that unite us; it’s worth it. Let’s get rid of the cross-vetoes and get a government of change, a government of democratic regeneration, up and running in this country,” said Sánchez, alluding to Podemos and Ciudadanos’ complete refusal to work with one another.

But it seems like a growing chorus of voices within the PSOE is saying enough is enough. Some even hope that the outcome of the regional elections being held this Sunday in Galicia and the Basque Country, where the PSOE is not expected to do well, will make Sánchez change his mind (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 23, 2016, 05:52:55 AM
Strain in Podemos; Rajoy sits back letting things go

Quote
Podemos, which is made up of dozens of grassroots organizations, is also feeling the strain after nine months of deadlock. On Thursday, party leader Pablo Iglesias issued a statement that underscored his growing rift with the party’s number two official, Iñigo Errejón, over the issue of whether to negotiate with the Socialists or not.

“As long as I am secretary general, we are going to talk to the PSOE on an equal footing,” insisted Iglesias.

Meanwhile, the acting prime minister of Spain appears to be sitting back and letting things happen.

Close aides said that Rajoy is neither surprised nor particularly alarmed at this latest attempt by the Socialist leader to put together an alternative governing coalition “with separatists and extremists.”

Rajoy has described this plan as “nonsense” but admitted that “mathematically it could work” in terms of congressional seats.

The acting PM has also admitted that he has no plan B to attract allies. Instead, he has adopted a do-nothing strategy while accusing other parties – particularly the PSOE – of the deadlock because of their refusal to support him.

If nothing changes, Spaniards will be called to vote in a third election scheduled for Christmas Day. Polls are predicting a historically low turnout, reflecting taxpayers’ growing weariness with their politicians.



Kiko Llaneras' prediction for Basque Country elections (statistic model based on polls)

EAJ-PNV 27 (26-29) seats; EH Bildu 16 (15-18) seats; Elkarrekin Podemos 15 (13-16) seats; PSE-EE (PSOE) 9 (7-10) seats; PP 7 (6-8) seats; C's 1 (0-1) seat

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PNV 27, EH Bildu 21; PSE-EE 16; PP 10; UPyD 1

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474570444_224041.html

Prediction for Galicia

PP 40 (38-42) seats; En Marea 17 (15-19); PSOE 15 (13-16); BNG 2 (1-4); C's 0 (0-1)

PP majority: 84% chance. Leftwing majority: 11% chance.

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PP 41; PSOE 18; AGE 9; BNG 7

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474503886_481732.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on September 23, 2016, 06:00:48 AM
Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 23, 2016, 06:32:05 AM
Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

PNV spokepersons have stated clearly that in neither case they will support Mariano Rajoy in Madrid.

Actually the PNV candidate doesn't need PP to be elected, due to the particular regulation of the Basque parliament, according to which negative votes don't count in the investiture. In case PSOE seats are not enough to add a majority to the PNV in the first vote, Mr Urkullu could be easily elected in a second vote. The only way to prevent it is that an alternative candidate could get more votes; the only option -dismissed by the polls- would be one backed by EH Bildu and Podemos -in case both parties could reach an agreement-. As for the budget and other legislation, it won't be an issue. PNV has a long record in negotiations with other parties; in the past legislature they governed in minority backed mainly by PSOE, but they occasionally passed legislation with the support of EH Bildu. PNV will apply what Zapatero called once "variable geometry", that is to say, reach deals with one party or another depending on issues.

I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on September 23, 2016, 06:42:58 AM

I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"

Yes. Sorry for bad use of their abbreviation.  I know it should be EAJ/PNV but I just typed what came to my mind since in English they are the Basque Nationalist Party.   

Thanks for your info on how the Basque Parliament works. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 08:51:08 AM
Another angle where today's election might affect national alignment is if PSOE does poorly then that could trigger a coup against Sanchez within PSOE which in turn might alter the PSOE policy toward PP with respect to abstaining in the next vote of confidence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 01:13:12 PM
Polls close in Galicia and Pais Vasco. Exit polls released:

Galicia

PP: 38-41 seats
En Marea: 14-16 seats
PSOE: 14 -16 seats
BNG: 5-6 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

Pais Vasco

PNV: 27-30 seats
Bildu: 16-18 seats
UP: 13-15 seats
PSOE: 8-10 seats
PP: 7-8 seats
C's: 0-1 seats


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 01:56:56 PM
10% counted in Galicia

PP: 56,6% 47
PSOE: 17,8% 14
En Marea: 12,3% 8
BNG: 7,8% 6
C's: 2,4% 0

Nothing yet from Pais Vasco


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 02:08:54 PM
Where are links to results ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:10:27 PM
24% counted in Galicia:

PP: 53,5% 45
PSOE: 17,8% 13
En Marea: 14,7% 12
BNG: 8,0% 5
C's: 2,7% 0

50% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,5% 28
Bildu: 21,5% 17
UP: 14,7% 12
PSOE: 12,2% 9
PP: 10,0% 9


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:12:44 PM

Galicia

http://resultados2016.xunta.gal/11AU/DAU11999CM.htm?lang=gl

Pais Vasco

http://www.euskadielecciones.eus/resultados/indexambito?pAmbito=00000&pModoVisualizacion=1


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 02:14:54 PM
Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 02:16:59 PM
35% counted in Galicia:

PP: 51.49% 44
PSOE: 17.95% 13
En Marea: 15.67% 12
BNG: 8.12% 6
C's: 2.88% 0


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:18:15 PM
Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far

If Vigo, Coruña, Pontevedra and Santiago hold up, yes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:19:38 PM
65% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,4% 28
Bildu: 21,7% 17
UP: 14,6% 12
PSOE: 12,1% 9
PP: 10,1% 9


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:21:53 PM
40% counted in Galicia

PP: 51,6% 42
PSOE: 18,0% 14
En Marea: 16,0% 12
BNG: 8,1% 6
C's: 2,9% 0

En Marea closing in on PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:33:23 PM
56% counted in Galicia:

PP: 49,7% 42
PSOE: 18,1% 14
En Marea: 17,3% 14
BNG: 8,2% 5
C's: 3,1% 0

88% counted in Pais Vasco

PNV: 37,5% 29
Bildu: 21,6% 17
UP: 14,8% 11
PSOE: 12,0% 9
PP: 10,1% 9


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 25, 2016, 02:40:35 PM
65% counted in Galicia

PP: 49,2% 42
En Marea: 17,7% 14
PSOE: 18,1% 13
BNG: 8,3% 6
C's: 3,2% 0

"Sorpasso" in Galicia


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 02:50:51 PM
77% counted in Galicia:

PP: 48.52% 41
PSOE: 18.04% 14
En Marea: 18.22% 14
BNG: 8.33% 6
C's: 3.23% 0

Convergence to exit polls although it seems PP will outperform the exit polls vote share even if it does not exceed exit polls in terms of seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 25, 2016, 02:56:14 PM
98.81% in Basque Country

PNV 37.59%   28
EH Bildu 21.28 %  18
EP  14.82%  11   
PSE-EE 11.93 %  9
PP 10.19%  9
C´S   2.02%  0


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 03:08:16 PM
90% counted in Galicia:

PP: 47.98% 42
En Marea: 18.68% 14
PSOE: 17.89% 13
BNG: 8.36% 6
C's: 3.32% 0


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 25, 2016, 03:31:44 PM
Basque Country (99.9%)
EAJ/PNV 29; EH Bildu 17; Podemos 11; PSE-EE 9; PP 9

Galicia (95.4%)
PP 41; En Marea 14; PSOE 14; BNG 6


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Zanas on September 25, 2016, 07:15:31 PM
Quite an underperformance for UP (EP) in Euskadi, especially in Gipuzcoa, but I guess vote utile for Bildu played in full, as we could expect from the final polls. Interesting that, for now, both PNV-PSE or PNV-PP would have majorities. But with this mandate, I guess PNV will govern in minority making deals on the way.

In Galicia, slight underperformance also for En Marea, barely topping PSOE in votes but on par in seats. PP actually strengthening their share from 2012, and C's a non-entity.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Mike88 on September 26, 2016, 04:20:43 AM
Podemos rips the agreement with the PSOE in Castilla-La Mancha

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/26/actualidad/1474878315_387940.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Lumine on September 26, 2016, 07:32:52 AM
Any chance of Sanchez being ousted before a third election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: RodPresident on September 26, 2016, 10:18:56 AM
Basque Country (99.9%)
EAJ/PNV 29; EH Bildu 17; Podemos 11; PSE-EE 9; PP 9

Galicia (95.4%)
PP 41; En Marea 14; PSOE 14; BNG 6
Massive failure for anti-PP opposition. Problems inside En Marea between En Marea, Anova and Podemos barred a large breakthrough and Feijóo was able to separate from national PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 27, 2016, 04:22:45 AM
Pedro Sánchez puts PSOE leadership to the vote:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/27/inenglish/1474963418_796797.html

Quote
Regional elections held in Galicia and the Basque Country on Sunday have done nothing to clear up the political scenario in Spain, where in all probability voters will soon be asked to go to the polls again for a record third time.

Following the Socialist Party (PSOE)’s dismal results in both regions, party leader Pedro Sánchez has decided to put his leadership to the vote at a party conference on October 23.

   
Regional elections held in Galicia and the Basque Country on Sunday have done nothing to clear up the political scenario in Spain, where in all probability voters will soon be asked to go to the polls again for a record third time.

Following the Socialist Party (PSOE)’s dismal results in both regions, party leader Pedro Sánchez has decided to put his leadership to the vote at a party conference on October 23.
PUBLICIDAD
inRead invented by Teads

The Socialist Party is split between those who feel it should let Rajoy form a government and those who refuse to do so

Until the leadership question is put to bed, the PSOE will not be engaging in further cross-party talks to reach a deal that might pull Spain out of the political deadlock that has plagued the country since December of last year.

But because of the way Spanish voting legislation works, the current Congress has been in a countdown ever since it held an investiture session in early September to choose a new prime minister.

The acting PM, Mariano Rajoy, lost his re-election bid after being voted down by all other forces in the chamber, and this in turn created a two-month deadline to either find a new PM or have the king dissolve parliament and call new elections.

This means that politicians will only have one week – from October 23 to October 31 – to conduct cross-party negotiations that might save Spaniards from going to the polls again on December 25, a full year after the original general election of December 20, 2015 (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 28, 2016, 11:27:47 PM
Open war in the PSOE. The rebellion against Pedro Sánchez marks one of the party's darkest hours.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/28/inenglish/1475086379_198758.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 29, 2016, 06:34:13 AM
Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont undertakes the preparation of a "binding referendum" in 2017. The CUP (far-left, pro-independence) advocated an unilateral consultation as a pressure measurement on the regional government. Mr Puigdemont is facing a motion of confidence in the Parliament of Catalonia; likely he will pass it with the CUP support.

Meanwhile the PSOE is splitted in two and faces a dark future, embroiled in internal war and legal disputes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 29, 2016, 07:25:13 AM
Wait isn't Gonzalez a complete crook? Why does he still have influence within the PSOE?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 29, 2016, 08:09:11 PM
Wait isn't Gonzalez a complete crook? Why does he still have influence within the PSOE?

Aside a crook, Felipe González is an historic leader and probably the most relevant figure of the democratic period begun in 1977. He served as PM from 1982 to 1996 and, with its lights and its shadows, his tenure was one of modernization of the country. The man is a living legend for many socialists and Pablo Iglesias made a mistake attacking him in the Congress of Deputies during the failed investiture of Pedro Sánchez. Even those socialists who don't side now with the friend of Carlos Slim and former PM are going to feel that an attack on González is an attack on PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: ag on September 29, 2016, 08:27:46 PM
Wait isn't Gonzalez a complete crook? Why does he still have influence within the PSOE?

Aside a crook, Felipe González is an historic leader and probably the most relevant figure of the democratic period begun in 1977. He served as PM from 1982 to 1996 and, with its lights and its shadows, his tenure was one of modernization of the country. The man is a living legend for many socialists and Pablo Iglesias made a mistake attacking him in the Congress of Deputies during the failed investiture of Pedro Sánchez. Even those socialists who don't side now with the friend of Carlos Slim and former PM are going to feel that an attack on González is an attack on PSOE.

Just a minor clarification, both for the Spanish speakers and for the rest. "Relevante" in Spanish does not have the same meaning as "relevant" in English. "Relevante" means "crucially important". "Relevant", of course, means "having something to do with". So, Felipe Gonzalez has, indeed, been a super-important player in Spanish history - not a somewhat obscure figure that may be suggested by the choice of the English word.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 30, 2016, 03:38:53 AM
I meant "crucial" or "important". "Relevant" is a false friend. Thanks for the clarification and sorry for the bad wording.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2016, 10:56:25 AM
It seems that if there is a third election this winter and the PSOE is in the shape it is in today the PP should emerge with a majority by itself and Podemos  would become the main Leftist opposition party.  PSOE would be wise to make a deal with PP while there is till or else their leverage will go down from here.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on September 30, 2016, 12:06:19 PM
PSOE would be wise to make a deal with PP while there is till or else their leverage will go down from here.

In which terms? Unconditional surrender? After this coup, the PSOE's ability to make an acceptable deal with the PP has dropped to zero. On the other hand, Rajoy wanted a third election from minute one. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Dereich on September 30, 2016, 12:13:54 PM
It seems that if there is a third election this winter and the PSOE is in the shape it is in today the PP should emerge with a majority by itself and Podemos  would become the main Leftist opposition party.  PSOE would be wise to make a deal with PP while there is till or else their leverage will go down from here.

How would tying themselves to one of the most corrupt and disliked governments in the Western world make PSOE more likely to retain their status as the main Leftist opposition? We have the example of PASOK who suffered for doing exactly what you're proposing to point to the contrary.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on September 30, 2016, 12:45:14 PM
PSOE would be wise to make a deal with PP while there is till or else their leverage will go down from here.

In which terms? Unconditional surrender? After this coup, the PSOE's ability to make an acceptable deal with the PP has dropped to zero. On the other hand, Rajoy wanted a third election from minute one. 

I agree it might be too late but it should work something like this: PSOE will say "we will abstain for the greater good of Spain and the Spanish people if the PP government would implement policies A B and C.  If PP rejects this deal then it is on PP that a third election will take place."  As it is where it is unconditional non-support of a PP government puts the pressure and blame on PSOE for a lack of government.  I do think it might be too late for this as this revolt has robbed PSOE leverage to do something like this and look credible. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: aross on October 01, 2016, 02:51:13 PM
Españoles...Sanchez ha dimitido.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Zinneke on October 01, 2016, 03:22:04 PM
Is Diaz expected to venture out of her fiefdom to take over the PSOE leadership one day?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 01, 2016, 03:52:20 PM
rip dilf


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on October 02, 2016, 08:30:37 AM
Even if PSOE now offers to abstain under its new leadership paving the way for a PP government, is there not a chance that PP will maneuver things in a way to provoke a third election anyway just to take advantage of the current split in PSOE? 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Zinneke on October 02, 2016, 09:55:49 AM
Even if PSOE now offers to abstain under its new leadership paving the way for a PP government, is there not a chance that PP will maneuver things in a way to provoke a third election anyway just to take advantage of the current split in PSOE?  

The whole PSOE manoeuvre seems to be based on the idea that the PP would like third elections and that now with Sanchez out of the way, they can call PP's bluff. Previously, PSOE was getting a lot of the blame for the current crisis and for pandering to ''unconstitutional'' forces. Its clear Rajoy wants an absolute majority, but from what I gather from the articles he'll be happy to govern with C's.

A PP-C's minority government is a one way ticket to Catalan unilateral declaration of independence IMO.

I'm still unsure what exactly PSOE's short or long term strategy is. THey are going to get PASOK'd.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: ag on October 02, 2016, 09:59:22 AM

I am not sure many non-Spaniards appreciate this, but I do :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: jaichind on October 03, 2016, 05:22:32 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party would win 159 seats in the 350-seat parliament, up from 137, according to poll by GAD3 published by newspaper ABC.
Socialist Party would fall to 18.6% vs 22.7% in previous elections, seats would decline to 68 from current 85
Podemos coalition would be down to 20.8% from 21.1%, w/ 69 seats from 71
Ciudadanos would fall to 11.9% from 13.1% and its seats in parliament would drop to 25 from 32


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 16, 2016, 12:55:25 PM
Question: how close were PACMA to getting into parliament last election? They seem terminally unlucky in getting healthy results that are far too evenly distributed to get seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics (Basque and Galician regional elections on 25/9)
Post by: Velasco on October 22, 2016, 12:21:57 PM
Question: how close were PACMA to getting into parliament last election? They seem terminally unlucky in getting healthy results that are far too evenly distributed to get seats.

The threshold to get into parliament is at 3%, although in practice it's needed a higher vote share in all the constituencies except Madrid and Barcelona.

In the last election PACMA got 1.8% in Barcelona and 1.13% in Madrid, so they fell short by 1.2% and 1.87% respectively. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 22, 2016, 06:19:10 PM
talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned :(


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on October 22, 2016, 06:34:25 PM
talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned :(

The one in the Canary Islands hasn't.

Hmmm...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2016, 07:24:12 PM
talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned :(

Ugh. On what basis?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on October 22, 2016, 07:40:29 PM
Quote from:  link=topic=205125.msg5334833#msg5334833 date=1477178350
talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned :(

Ugh. On what basis?
Because their statute of autonomy requires them to 'preserve cultural heritage', making the law ultra vires. Seriously. Also Catalans smell.
The case was, of course, brought by the PPC.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2016, 08:50:27 PM
Spanish Socialists prepare to end political logjam

https://www.ft.com/content/0a5c2522-96ba-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582

"Barring a late surprise,the committee is expected to instruct the party’s members of parliament to abstain in a crucial vote on Mariano Rajoy’s candidacy for a second term as prime minister. That would be enough to secure another mandate for the veteran centre-right leader and draw a line under Spain’s political deadlock."

"In a clear sign that cohesion is breaking down, the Catalan branch of the party has made clear it will vote against Mr Rajoy no matter what the federal committee decides on Sunday. The powerful Andalusian branch, meanwhile, announced this week that it wants Socialist deputies to abstain and let Mr Rajoy form a government."

I think the pressure on PSOE to abstain in a vote for a PP government would be quite large.  Over time that is the most likely outcome.

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.  Of course we will see what takes place tomorrow.  One way or another PSOE will be internally split pretty badly


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2016, 09:37:57 PM
talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned :(

Ugh. On what basis?
Because their statute of autonomy requires them to 'preserve cultural heritage'. Seriously. Also Catalans smell.
The case was, of course, brought by the PPC.

Oh wow. What a load of crap.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on October 23, 2016, 08:19:03 AM
Socialists give go-ahead to Spanish minority government
Madrid (DPA) -- Spain is set to form a government after months of negotiations and two inconclusive elections after the country's Socialists say they will not oppose a minority government headed by the ruling centre-right People's Party.

Rajoy will now get another term as prime minister.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 23, 2016, 12:54:22 PM
RIP PSOE.

All hail Flawless, Beautiful Pablo <3.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 23, 2016, 02:16:48 PM
RIP PSOE.

All hail Flawless, Beautiful Pablo <3.

:(


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on October 23, 2016, 02:49:43 PM
talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned :(
Ugh. On what basis?
It's a fundamental source of happiness to the Catalans.

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 23, 2016, 08:36:06 PM
RIP SPAIN, 1516-2016, FF


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on October 23, 2016, 09:06:52 PM
Idiots. Socialists will have hard time ever governing the rump Spain without Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 23, 2016, 10:07:09 PM
Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 04:37:54 AM
Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

There was no deal. The PSOE's Federal Commission just agreed to abstain "for the good of the country" and that is all.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 04:44:28 AM
El País: "Spain’s Socialists will allow PP to form minority government.
Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will return to office in early November"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/10/24/inenglish/1477292590_216340.html

Quote
   

After a 10-month political impasse, Spain looks set to have a government by early November. The Socialist Party’s (PSOE) decision on Sunday to lift a veto that has blocked the Popular Party (PP) in Congress means that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will return to office at the head of a minority administration.

Rajoy will rule without the support of any of Spain’s three other main parties, with just 137 deputies out of 350. He will be forced to negotiate every step of the new legislature, seeking support from the emerging center-right Ciudadanos grouping, as well as other groups.

All that is required now is a meeting between Rajoy and King Felipe and then two rounds of voting in Congress at which the Socialist Party will most likely abstain, allowing Rajoy to form a minority government toward the end of next week.

If the Socialists had not agreed to abstain at the upcoming investiture vote, the country would have had to return to the polls for a record third time in a year. Javier Fernández, who is in charge of the PSOE until it elects a new leader, has described the party’s position as “the lesser of two evils.”

The Socialist Party’s decision to lift its veto came after a special meeting held in Madrid on Sunday, with 139 regional leaders voting to allow Rajoy to form a government, and 96 opposing the move. The question has divided the party, with its former leader, Pedro Sánchez insisting for the last 10 months that he had widespread support among the grass roots for his refusal to allow Rajoy back into office. He stood down on August 31.

In the first round of voting in Congress next week, Rajoy will likely garner 170 votes: the PP’s, along with those of Ciudadanos and the Canaries Coalition. A second vote will take place two days later, on Saturday or Sunday. The Socialists will abstain, thus opening the door to Rajoy to return to office.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 06:58:02 AM
Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on October 24, 2016, 07:04:35 AM
I suspect now with  Rajoy forming the government the situation will not bt stable and we will be headed toward a mid-term election most likely toward the end of 2017 where the vote will most likely polarize around PP and Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on October 24, 2016, 07:30:16 AM
How many PSOE deputies do you expect to vote No?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 08:25:05 AM
Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.

A third election would have been a complete disaster for the whole Left, because of political disenchantment. There is internal strife in Podemos too. Anyway it's much worse for the PSOE. The incredibly inept way in which Felipe González -and the 'Old Senate'- in alliance with Susana Díaz -and the regional leaders called 'the barons'- have conducted the coup against Pedro Sánchez -who had far more misses than hits as party leader- in order to force the abstention -allowing the most corrupt party in Western Europe to stay in government- is going to cause a serious damage in the already weak credibility of the party. Furthermore, the coward attitude of the leaders of the 'rebellion' is contributing to deepen the hole. The silence of people like Susana Díaz, who has no courage to stand up, speak and give arguments in favour of abstention, is very eloquent.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 24, 2016, 08:56:00 AM
so, err, who is going to be PSOE's leader now?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 09:14:07 AM
Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.

A third election would have been a complete disaster for the whole Left, because of political disenchantment. There is internal strife in Podemos too. Anyway it's much worse for the PSOE. The incredibly inept way in which Felipe González -and the 'Old Senate'- in alliance with Susana Díaz -and the regional leaders called 'the barons'- have conducted the coup against Pedro Sánchez -who had far more misses than hits as party leader- in order to force the abstention -allowing the most corrupt party in Western Europe to stay in government- is going to cause a serious damage in the already weak credibility of the party. Furthermore, the coward attitude of the leaders of the 'rebellion' is contributing to deepen the hole. The silence of people like Susana Díaz, who has no courage to stand up, speak and give arguments in favour of abstention, is very eloquent.

I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 10:07:39 AM
I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.

I think the survival of Rajoy is due in large measure to his resilience, which is the main virtue of that terrible man. "Resistir es vencer". Of course nobody can survive in politics without a good dose of luck.

I just read this analysis by Enric Juliana. It's a good summary of events in the last 300 days. If you have reading comprehension in Spanish and interest to comprehend the situation, you should take a look.

http://www.caffereggio.net/2016/10/23/trescientos-dias-en-la-niebla-de-enric-juliana-en-la-vanguardia/



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 10:16:04 AM
I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.

I think the survival of Rajoy is due in large measure to his resilience, which is the main virtue of that terrible man. "Resistir es vencer". Of course nobody can survive in politics without a good dose of luck.

I just read this analysis by Enric Juliana. It's a good summary of events in the last 300 days. If you have reading comprehension in Spanish and interest to comprehend the situation, you should take a look.

http://www.caffereggio.net/2016/10/23/trescientos-dias-en-la-niebla-de-enric-juliana-en-la-vanguardia/

Oh, certainly, I've taken quite an interesting in reading about Spain this year. My native language too, so even better!

I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 12:42:17 PM
How many PSOE deputies do you expect to vote No?

By the moment 13 MPs have said they will vote No, including the 7 MPs from Catalonia and the 2 from the Balearic Islands. Also Margarita Robles (a former secretary of Justice who ran second in Madrid behind Sánchez) and Odón Elorza (a former mayor of San Sebastián). Pedro Sánchez is still a member of the parliament: maybe he could resign before the vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on October 24, 2016, 12:59:57 PM
Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding. ;)

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 01:38:11 PM
I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?

With a person as hermetic as Rajoy you can never be sure, but I think his original plan was to be at the head just two terms. Also, the fact that he survives cannot hide that the Popular Party is in need of a comprehensive refurbishment (and not in the style of the  refurbishment of the Génova Street HQs, funded with black money). Maybe Rajoy could try to place a successor in this upcoming legislature, who knows.

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding. ;)

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.

Spain was fine. No joke. The hard times are going to begin just now, with the harsh budget cuts demanded by the European Commission. The PP government -otherwise a champion of austerity- failed in the fulfillment of deficit targets, because 2015 was an election year and the government approved certain tax reductions.

I thought that suicide and good sense were antithetical, but it's just me ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on October 24, 2016, 02:07:39 PM
I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?

With a person as hermetic as Rajoy you can never be sure, but I think his original plan was to be at the head just two terms. Also, the fact that he survives cannot hide that the Popular Party is in need of a comprehensive refurbishment (and not in the style of the  refurbishment of the Génova Street HQs, funded with black money). Maybe Rajoy could try to place a successor in this upcoming legislature, who knows.

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding. ;)

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.

Spain was fine. No joke. The hard times are going to begin just now, with the harsh budget cuts demanded by the European Commission. The PP government -otherwise a champion of austerity- failed in the fulfillment of deficit targets, because 2015 was an election year and the government approved certain tax reductions.

I thought that suicide and good sense were antithetical, but it's just me ;)

The "just kidding" was that you cannot be without a government for a very long time. But also because, here in Portugal, we joke that the solution to our dying economy is to have no government at all, just look at Spain. ;)
But you're right, although Spain is growing 3%, one of the strongest showing in Europe, now the EU is going to demand a deficit bellow 3%, it's going to be tough.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 03:43:48 PM
so, err, who is going to be PSOE's leader now?

I have not a clue. Right now I'm not following political affairs on a daily basis, although I'm not totally disconnected. I know that Pedro Sánchez intends to try and it seems that finally Susana Díaz is not going to take a step forward. From what I've been reading and /or hearing it wouldn't be strange a repetition of the 2014 contest between Pedro Sánchez and Eduardo Madina. This time Susana Díaz and the powerful Andalusia branch would be backing Madina against Sánchez, when in 2014 the Andalusian votes helped Sánchez to win the leadership. The problem was that Sánchez refused to be the puppet of Díaz; subsequently he lost the support of the 'barons' without doing anything to gain new allies in the party. Sánchez vs Madina again would be sad and fun to watch, all at once.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 24, 2016, 04:01:43 PM
Now that I remember, even Josep Borrell has said that he doesn't rule out the possibility of running for leadership. Borrell is a very clever man who held various portfolios in times of Felipe González. Also (quote from Wikipedia) "in 1998 he ran against PSOE's General Secretary Joaquin Almunia in a primary election intended to determine who the party would nominate as its prime ministerial candidate in the 2000 General Elections, but due to internal pressures within the PSOE, Borrell resigned from candidacy in 1999". In the last days Mr Borrell, who is not in favour of allowing Rajoy to govern, made statements critical with the botched job made by the people who ousted Sánchez. I don't think he's going to run, but it would be certainly fun. It's clear that people like Mr Borrell is at a level above the mediocre politicians in the both sides in which is splitted the PSOE these days.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2016, 05:13:18 PM
It's pretty clear that the PSOE was screwed either way. The question for them is more how they got into this mess rather than which of the extremely unappealing options they eventually chose...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2016, 05:14:14 PM
I've made this joke before, but what's Spanish for 'Country Party'? Would be a more accurate name by this point.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 26, 2016, 09:04:53 AM
Pedro Sánchez considers not attending Rajoy's investiture, fearing reprisals to rebel MPs from the PSOE's interim leadership in case former secretary general "leads" them. Sánchez is determined to "maintain the dignity", so he refuses to abstain as certain 'baron' asked him in a public statement. Also, he won't resign as MP because such move would weaken his position before an eventual leadership contest.

Eduardo Madina, the man who was defeated by Sánchez in 2014, won't run for leadership because "sequels are never good"

Francina Armengol, premier of the Balearic Islands and leader of the PSOE's regional branch, says that abstention is a "shame" and a "treason".

According to media speculations, between 15 and 20 socialist MPs might vote No to Rajoy.

Aware of the difficulties of governing in minority, Rajoy will try to attract PSOE to the deal between PP and Ciudadanos in his investiture speech.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 26, 2016, 10:37:30 AM
Investiture session begins at 18:00 (CET)

PSOE MPs must say "No" in the first vote and abstain in the second, allowing the election of Mr Rajoy.

PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando warns that there's no room for dissidence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on October 26, 2016, 01:03:42 PM
I've made this joke before, but what's Spanish for 'Country Party'? Would be a more accurate name by this point.

Par'ido de lo' Pue'lo'


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on October 27, 2016, 12:15:28 PM
Woah, the Podemos representatives just walked out of the investiture debate shortly before the vote is to begin.

EDIT: Never mind, just a small protest, they returned to vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 27, 2016, 07:37:09 PM
El Diario:  "PSOE votes 'No' to Rajoy 48 hours before making him PM"

Today's vote: Yes 170 / No 180


Woah, the Podemos representatives just walked out of the investiture debate shortly before the vote is to begin.

EDIT: Never mind, just a small protest, they returned to vote.

Apparently the Podemos MPs walked out after serious allegations made by the PSOE spokesman, namely "using the name of Spain at the service of (foreign) dictators"

Pablo Iglesias proclaimed himself the only leader of the opposition against the 'Triple Alliance' made by PP, C's and PSOE. Also, he made some people angry. When the Podemos leader said that PP members are "future criminals", the secretary general of the conservatives Maria Dolores de Cospedal called Iglesias "scoundrel" from her bench. Cameras recorded Albert Rivera saying "what an asshole" after Iglesias recommended him to use Google in order to know what is the Burgundy Cross, implying that the leader of Ciudadanos is an ignorant. Iglesias said: "To this day the two crisis-proof traditional institutions are the Monarchy and the PNV, closely united by the Cross of Burgundy. Mr Rivera better searchs in Google".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Burgundy#In_Spain


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on October 29, 2016, 01:21:55 PM
Rajoy invested: For: 170 Against: 111 Abs: 68


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 30, 2016, 10:08:37 AM
PSOE: 68 abstain, 15 No, 1 resigned (Pedro Sánchez)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on October 31, 2016, 01:56:58 AM
PSOE: 68 abstain, 15 No, 1 resigned (Pedro Sánchez)

The 15 holdouts include the 7 members of PSC. I have a feeling, the will soon be sending Madrid officials to substitute for bulls in the reimposed Barcelona corrida.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 03, 2016, 01:28:26 PM
New government:
New ministers in italics

President: Mariano Rajoy Brey (PP)
Vice-president. Minister of the Presidency and of Territorial Administrations: Soraya Saénz de Santamaría (loses spokesperson role)
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation: Alfonso Dastis Quecedo. Dastis is the former Spanish representative to the COREPER and former ambassador to the Netherlands.
Minister of Justice: Rafael Catalá.
Minister of Defence: María Dolores de Cospedal. Cospedal is, needless to say, the current general secretary of the PP and former President of Castilla-La Mancha
Minister of Finances and the Civil Service: Cristóbal Montoro
Minister of the Interior: Juan Ignacio Zoido. Former mayor of Sevilla.
Minister of Public Works: Íñigo de la Serna Hernáiz. Mayor of Santander since 2007.
Minister of Education, Culture and Sports. Government Spokersperson: Íñigo Méndez de Vigo (gains spokesperson role).
Minister of Labour and Social Security: Fátima Báñez
Ministry of Energy, Tourism and the Digital Agenda: Álvaro Nadal Belda. Current secretary of state of Economy (http://'http://www.abc.es/economia/20130117/abci-nadal-hermanos-suplemento-empresa-201301161118.html').
Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing, Food and Environment: Isabel García Tejerina
Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness: Luis de Guindos (gains Industry)
Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality: Dolors Montserrat. Mayor of San Sadurní de Noya, Barcelona. Second spokesperson of the PP in the Congress.

Lots of contuinuism, as it was to be expected from Rajoy. The new ministers seem to be little-known figures, with the exception of Cospedal, who either respond to a technocratic profile (Dastis, Nadal Belda) or to a capacity to be popular despite adverse situation, like keeping the majority in your city even in 2015 (De la Serna Hernáiz) or being a centre-right mayor in Sevilla. So to some degree people who happen to have more conciliatory or wider appeal than the 'regular' PP. Also, although Soraya gains more power, she loses some and her biggest rival in the party (Cospedal) and his allies (Zoido) enter the cabinet. Monteserrat hailing from the PPC makes sure there are still Catalans in the cabinet after the dismissal of Fernández Díaz. It's all about the equilibrium with Rajoy, although the Sorayos have clearly crushed the G-8.

The re-creation of the ministry of Territorial Administrations points towards Rajoy seeking a new approach to Catalonia, which is about damn time. Not to be confused with a referendum, though. The new ministers are all younger (not young though, no Casado, Maroto, Levy, etc.), which I think will help in dealing with Ciudadanos and enforcing the government pact's agenda. It does seem like a more conciliatory government, although who knows, since the new figures are essentially unknown to the population. Perhaps pointing towards a generational renewal of the party, too.

EDIT: Hard to tell whether Guindos or Montoro will be more important as we don't know yet who'll hold the chair of the Delegated Commission for Economic Affairs, which coordinates all the ministries and activity of the economic area.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 08, 2016, 06:24:34 AM
In other, interesting things, El País released an incredibly interesting analysis of the sociological background of all the Spanish ministers since the Suárez I government (http://'http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/11/03/actualidad/1478202328_723969.html'). According to it, your average Spanish ministry hails from the province of Madrid, is a former civil servant and he (because it's a he ofc) studied Law in university.

Quote
Spain has had 184 ministers between 1977 and 2015. The new Mariano Rajoy cabinets adds 6 new ones to the list. It's a small number, but enough to see what's their profile and what it says about Spanish democracy. The majority of the data comes from the tables that professor Juan Rodríguez Teruel (Universidad de Valencia) used in his book 'Los ministros de la España democrática'. These are the six main traits:

1. Civil Servants. A whooping 63.3% of all Spanish ministers have been civil servants. In the new Rajoy cabinet 69% are civil servants.

()

The dominant role of the civil servants is a symptom of the complex relationship between parties and civil servants. Public servants have the advantage that they can return to their previous post. For others the return to their old work posts is more complicated.

Upper-level servants have an obvious advantage: They are the ones who best known the Civil Service. In other countries, technocrats are upper-level civil servants with a certain degree of independence. In Spain, the independence of bureaucrats is more dubious. In the upper levels of the Administration, promotions depend on political affinities. "It's a model in which confidence is political, whatever the professional merits. There are no expectations of having a neutral promotion" says Victor Lapuente, professor at the University of Gothenburg.

In Spain, those civil servants who wish to reach the highest ranks have to surrender to the political parties. In some cases, their politicisation is complete and they become party members. The problems of this system are clear. It's hard for civil servants to act as a check on the minister. In the UK and other Northern European countries, the system is the opposite. Civil servants are obligated to remain independent.

That is not an ideal system however: Civil servants have little incentives to listen to politicians. The best examples is the model of the British TV series Yes, Minister. Even though both systems have problems, academic literature points out that a more professional administrations with less political links implies a better governance and less corruption.

Amongst the remaining politicians there is another major group: Career politicians. Since the last González government, with Aznar's exception, they have always been ministers who only occupation was politics.

()

The private sector is underrepresented, although somewhat more when PP politicians govern. Socialist presidents have a clear preference for university professors.

2. Madrileños. The majority of ministers in absolute numbers were born in Madrid: 57, or over a quarter of them. If that number is corrected by the regional population, the highest proportion is of riojanos (people from La Rioja) and castellano-leoneses (people from Castilla y León). The abundance of the first group may be luck - there have only been 3. But the important number is that there have been 23 ministers from Castilla y León.

()

Geography is usually a minor matter, but not in this case, according to Rodríguez Teruel. "It shows that the political recruitment logic in Spain is very territorially conditioned" and adds "amongst the large countries, it would be hard to find others where the capital is so politically segregating".

The data only shows those ministers born in Madrid, but if one added those who studied or began their professional careers in the capital, the number would be higher: "Half or 60% of the ministers have usually lived in Madrid" says Rodríguez Teruel.

The origin also serves to see where the recruiting grounds of the two main Spanish parties area, as it varies little from their electoral strongholds.

3. Lawyers. Five of the 6 Spanish Prime Ministers have studied Law; only Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo was a civil engineer. In all governments since 1977, the number of Law graduates have surpassed 50%. In the new Rajoy government they are 77%. In other 23 advanced democracies, according to the data of Carlos III University professor, Silvia Claveria, only 33.42% of politicians are lawyers. In those 23 countries, lawyers are outnumbers by social sciences graduates.

Studying Law usually coincides with state entrance exams: "The preponderance of Law in Spain has a lot to do with [it] being a multipurpose degree" says Rodríguez Teruel.

The dominance of lawyers in the Spanish government has important consequences: "It gives a strong normative connotation to how politics are done in Spain. Problems are faced in a rigid manner, with little imagination" adds Rodríguez Teruel. The lack of other profiles can be a problem in those areas for which a different expertise is important, like in costs: " In Spain things are always done according to the law, but not always according to economic common sense" says Lapuente.

4. Men. The male majority is no surpise. In the developed world only 30% of the ministries are led by women, according to Clavería's data. The number is even worse when dealing with important ministries: Deputy Prime Ministers, Economy, Finance, Defence, Interior, and Foreign Affairs. The female ministers in these portfolios is only 16.5%.

In the new Rajoy government, 38% of ministers are female, far away from the 50% in the second Rodríguez Zapatero government. But 2 of them are in tough ministries, which represents 33%. "The new government doesn't reach parity, but it has placed a women in Defence, which is also unusual" says Claveria.

Claveria provides another significant number in gender disparity in advanced democracies: The male ministers without children are 9%, female ministers without children are 45%.

5. Very well-read. The ministers usually have graduate or higher level studies: At least a degree. In Spain after Francoism it has been always been this way. But it used to be something distinctive about southern Europe. "In the north, until the 80s, there was a 30% [of ministers] that did not go to university" says Rodríguez Teruel.

For once, the numbers of the north have evolved towards what was normal in the south: Ministers with tertiary education. It can not only be explained by taking into account the overall increase in the amount of university graduates. This seemingly good requisite for public career has a representation cost: "The access to the political elite is closing" says Rodríguez Teruel.

6. Deputies. In parliamentary systems, the majority of ministers are usually deputies. Not in Spain. The Spanish cipher is around 50% of ministers being deputies. In the new Rajoy government, the number is higher: 69%. During the Second Republic, 81% of ministers were members of Congress.

The relative importance of Congress in the Congress shows once more, the limited role of Parliament in Spanish politics: "It can reinforce the Government's preeminence, it looks beyond Parliament, paying more attention to other power sources" says Rodríguez Teruel. The increase in the number of ministers with seats could be a gesture of the president to the potentially larger role of Parliament in the Spanish political life from now on.

In Spain there is also a small quota of ministers who come straight from the local or regional power bases: "Their priority will not be to pay attention to the parliamentary game, but to speak to their voters or the region" says Rodríguez Teruel. The most important designation in this profile category is Íñigo de la Serna, who jumped from mayor of Santander to Public Works Minister.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 12, 2017, 12:22:56 AM
Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

Quote
You have no longer an absolute majority … so the commission will get under way,” Rivera said before suggesting that former treasurers of the PP would have to give evidence to the commission via video link from their cells — likely a reference to Francisco Granados, a top PP official in Madrid, who has given testimony through video conference from prison.

Rajoy responded with a biblical reference, saying it would be better to look to the future “because, if we look back to the past too much, we risk the same fate as Lot’s wife … who turned into a pillar of salt” when she looked back at Sodom.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 12, 2017, 08:20:03 AM
Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

Quote
You have no longer an absolute majority … so the commission will get under way,” Rivera said before suggesting that former treasurers of the PP would have to give evidence to the commission via video link from their cells — likely a reference to Francisco Granados, a top PP official in Madrid, who has given testimony through video conference from prison.

Rajoy responded with a biblical reference, saying it would be better to look to the future “because, if we look back to the past too much, we risk the same fate as Lot’s wife … who turned into a pillar of salt” when she looked back at Sodom.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.
I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 12, 2017, 08:50:57 AM
Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

Quote
You have no longer an absolute majority … so the commission will get under way,” Rivera said before suggesting that former treasurers of the PP would have to give evidence to the commission via video link from their cells — likely a reference to Francisco Granados, a top PP official in Madrid, who has given testimony through video conference from prison.

Rajoy responded with a biblical reference, saying it would be better to look to the future “because, if we look back to the past too much, we risk the same fate as Lot’s wife … who turned into a pillar of salt” when she looked back at Sodom.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.
I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".  

PP is losing voters rapidly to C's in the polls though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 12, 2017, 09:06:11 AM
That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 12, 2017, 01:18:06 PM
That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 12, 2017, 01:46:40 PM
That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?
Pedro Sanchéz, former PSOE leader, and Patxi Lopéz, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sanchéz and Lopéz. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sanchéz was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sanchéz who wants an approximation with Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on March 12, 2017, 01:51:02 PM
That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?
Pedro Sanchéz, former PSOE leader, and Patxi Lopéz, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sanchéz and Lopéz. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sanchéz was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sanchéz who wants an approximation with Podemos.

Moderate? Diaz would be in PP if she was living elsewhere than Andalusia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 13, 2017, 01:54:58 PM
Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

Quote
You have no longer an absolute majority … so the commission will get under way,” Rivera said before suggesting that former treasurers of the PP would have to give evidence to the commission via video link from their cells — likely a reference to Francisco Granados, a top PP official in Madrid, who has given testimony through video conference from prison.

Rajoy responded with a biblical reference, saying it would be better to look to the future “because, if we look back to the past too much, we risk the same fate as Lot’s wife … who turned into a pillar of salt” when she looked back at Sodom.

We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.
I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".   

PP is losing voters rapidly to C's in the polls though.

Mariano Rajoy must deal with C's and PNV in order to pass the budget. I think that Mr Rajoy will succeed, even though addressing the demands of the oranges and the Basque nationalists might require somewhat complicated balances. Given the lack of alternative, the possibility of calling a fresh election is like a nuclear button in Rajoy's hands. PSOE is in a pitiful state, while Podemos held a convention in January where it was staged the deep rift between Pablo Iglesias and Ïñigo Errejón supporters. Simultaneously, Mr Rajoy was acclaimed in the PP convention. I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 13, 2017, 02:15:51 PM
That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?
Pedro Sánchez, former PSOE leader, and Patxi López, former president of the Basque Country. At the moment polls are favouring Sánchez and López. Susana Diaz is polling in third place, perhaps because she is delaying and delaying her announcement.

But i wouldn't read to much the polls. In 2014 Sánchez was behind, but close, to Eduardo Madina and he end up winning by more 12 points. It will be an interesting race to watch as two moderate PSOE leaders face Sánchez who wants an approximation with Podemos.

I haven't seen polls on the PSOE leadership race. Susana Díaz is regarded the favourite and has the support of the party apparatus and is backed by most of regional leaders. However, there is concern among the advocates of Ms Díaz because Pedro Sánchez retains a considerable support among the angry grassroots. In a rally held in the Andalusian town of Cádiz, Sánchez gathered a sizeable crowd. In the screen behind the stand, it was played a video of Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo endorsing Sánchez. The polarisation between Díaz and Sánchez will likely relegate Patxi López to the third place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 13, 2017, 02:30:01 PM
I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

I believe he was referring to the Metroscopia poll from last Saturday (http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/10/media/1489173943_327311.html), which has the following numbers (compared with the poll from January):

31.2% ( -2.0%) PP
21.5% ( -0.2%) UP
19.0% ( -0.1%) PSOE
16.5% (+1.0%) C's


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 13, 2017, 04:38:45 PM
I don't think that later polls indicate that PP is losing ground to C's.

I believe he was referring to the Metroscopia poll from last Saturday (http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/10/media/1489173943_327311.html), which has the following numbers (compared with the poll from January):

31.2% ( -2.0%) PP
21.5% ( -0.2%) UP
19.0% ( -0.1%) PSOE
16.5% (+1.0%) C's

OK, it's the last Metroscopia poll. Maybe Spanish polls are not among the more reliable, as I think you said previously. Metroscopia in particular has strange oscillations between one poll and another, as well it tends to overpoll Ciudadanos. According to other polls released recently (Invymark and Sigma Dos) C's is oscillating between 12% and 13% of the vote, while PP is between 33% and 34%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 13, 2017, 05:58:04 PM
I agree with you on Metroscopia. Comparing with other polling firms, they are overpolling C's and in the past they overpolled heavily the PSOE. I think they were the only pollster to put the PSOE ahead of PP during the 2011-2015 legislature.

Personally i follow 3 polling companies in Spain: Celeste-Tel, NC Report and CIS. For me, these 3 are the most accurate. And speaking of Celeste-Tel, they just released a new poll, and it has completely different results in comparison with Metroscopia:

35.6% (+0.2) 148/150 PP
22.1% (+1.0)     80/83 PSOE
19.3% ( -0.2)     65/66 UP
12.1% (+0.1)     26/28 C's
  2.8%                     10 ERC
  1.6%                       7 PDC
  1.2%                       5 PNV
  0.9%                    2/3 Bildu
  0.3%                       1 CC
  4.1%                          Others

Link. (http://www.electograph.com/2017/03/espana-marzo-2017-sondeo-celeste-tel.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 13, 2017, 06:35:33 PM
I don't trust NC Report and Celeste-Tel very much and the PP seems overpolled in their last releases. Probably it's better taking into account the CIS and a mix of the other pollsters (including SigmaDos, GESOP, Invymark, MyWord etcetera) in order to make and average and try to spot the trend.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 13, 2017, 06:58:49 PM
Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 13, 2017, 07:08:09 PM
Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?

Pretty much, yes. Convergencia 's rebranding looks like a desperate attempt to put a corrupt past behind.


The last news is that High Court of Justice if Catalonia has banned Artur Mas from public posts for a period of two years. The reason is that Mas, by that time regional premier, organised that informal independence referendum held in Catalonia in November 2014. It's the first time that a chief of a regional government is sentenced for disobedience of a judicial resolution. Even though Mr Mas is going to appeal, electoral legislation prevents that he can run for an office. That's a problem for Mr Mas, because he had the intent of running for the PDECat (formerly CDC or Convergència) in the next regional election, In case Artur Mas was still a member of the Parliament of Catalonia (he was elected in the JxSI list), he could have retained his seat because the sentence would not have been executed until the appeal was solved. Another two top regional officials were sentenced: Vice premier Joana Ortega and Minister of Education Irene Rigau. The latter is the only one who currently holds a public office as member of the regional parliament.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 18, 2017, 11:50:26 AM
DYM poll for the Congress and the PSOE leadership:

Congress:

31.0% PP
20.0% PSOE
19.9% UP
16.2% C's

PSOE leadership:

()

Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

Link. (http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-03-18/crisis-psoe-encuesta-dym-preferencias-candidatos_1350827/)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 18, 2017, 03:38:47 PM
LOL Diaz.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 19, 2017, 11:43:48 AM
Election projection by Jaime Miquel (political analist):

Vote share:
()

Seats in Congress:
()

Link. (http://linkis.com/fQJga)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 19, 2017, 11:47:23 AM
Poll from Invymark to La Sexta:

32.6% PP
21.9% UP
21.0% PSOE
13.4% C's

Link. (http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/el-pp-seguiria-siendo-la-fuerza-mas-votada-con-el-326-del-voto-aunque-baja-por-primera-vez-desde-las-elecciones_2017031958ce85320cf201b3e53dcd0e.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on March 20, 2017, 01:41:31 AM
Good to see when crypto-PP Diaz is polling badly.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 20, 2017, 01:58:22 PM
NC Report poll for La Razón newspaper:

()

Poll conducted between 13 and 17 March. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.1%

The PP is highly overrated in this poll. This poll has 58.5% turnout... For Spanish levels that's very low and probably not very accurate. But put it in the average.

Link. (http://www.larazon.es/espana/el-pp-suma-21-escanos-y-cs-se-deja-ocho-tras-sus-bandazos-AG14744994)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on March 20, 2017, 02:03:52 PM
as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 20, 2017, 02:18:18 PM
as "semi-local" mike said, could be an outlier but at some point, i guess, the PP is going to become strong enough cause all other options are more difficult.
Indeed. There are two important political question at the moment. The first is the budget. Spanish media have been saying that negotiations for this year budget are shaky and that Mr Rajoy doesn't know how it's going to end. The other one is the longshoreman crisis. Spain may have to pay a big fine to the EU if it doesn't solve the situation. C's abstained in parliament vote about this and the PP law failed. Don't know if this will have an impact in C's voting numbers. Let's see what happens.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 21, 2017, 01:41:16 AM

PSOE leadership:

()

Congress vote with the different PSOE candidates:

If Lopéz was leader:

29.8% PP
25.2% PSOE
19.8% UP
13.6% C's

If Sanchéz was leader:

29.9% PP
24.5% PSOE
17.8% UP
16.0% C's

If Díaz was leader:

29.7% PP
24.2% UP
18.9% PSOE
15.4% C's

Poll conducted between 7 and 15 March. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of ±3.1%

Link. (http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-03-18/crisis-psoe-encuesta-dym-preferencias-candidatos_1350827/)




Let me clarify things: only PSOE members or activists who are up-to-date with the payment of quotas are eligible to vote in the leadership contest or primary election. This poll measures the popularity of pre-candidates among voters ("votantes") and supporters ("simpatizantes"). Susana Díaz seems to be quite unpopular among them, probably because of her role in the coup d'ètat which dethroned Mr Sánchez. Sadly the contest is not open to such groups. Only the approx 180,000 PSOE members can vote and the chances of Mrs Díaz are higher among them. Anyway thanks for the updates, MIke88 ;)

Meanwhile, Rajoy government suffers a setback in parliament and threats with new elections:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/20/inenglish/1489999534_081492.html

Quote
   

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has warned that he is ready to do “the impossible” in order to see this political term through, but that he needs “a bit of political stability in order to do so.”

Speaking on Sunday, Rajoy’s comments came after a week that saw opposition parties in the Spanish Congress stonewall a government decree aiming to liberalize the dock workers sector, allowing companies to hire non-unionized employees. Brussels has been pressuring Spain to bring the industry in line with EU legislation, and Madrid is facing hefty fines for failing to do so (...)

The government decree failed because C's wanted to take revenge of PP's disdain and little humiliations to them... and well, because the blue party doesn't want to enforce the agreements on corruption and transparency with the orange party.

Quote
But his administration is facing further trouble from an opposition that has promised not to let Rajoy rest on his laurels after he was reinstated late last year thanks to tacit help from the Socialists. The latter have vowed to exercise active opposition throughout the term, while the PP’s only semi-reliable ally, the reform party Ciudadanos, has lately taken a step back due to disagreements over anti-corruption policy.

This was a little victory for Podemos in parliament, too.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 21, 2017, 06:25:09 AM
Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/03/20/actualidad/1490015134_454408.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 26, 2017, 02:03:20 PM
Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?


No idea, Podemos's coalitions are very heterogeneous. From what I've heard it might have to do with Colau&co. being more pro independence than Podem. (which is part of Podemos, which can't really defend independence because it's a national party)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 26, 2017, 02:04:38 PM
Susana Díaz presented today her candidacy for the PSOE leadership. (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/03/26/actualidad/1490520680_018919.html) In a rally in Madrid attended by more than 7,000 people and by many high profile PSOE leaders like Felipe Gonzaléz, J R Zapatero and others, Díaz said she wants put the PSOE back in the Spanish government and also achieve reforms and pacts with the PP and refuses that the PSOE should "imitate" Podemos.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2017, 10:33:55 AM
The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. (http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/03/27/58d8ec9022601d96158b45aa.html) The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

()

Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. :(


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: warandwar on March 27, 2017, 10:43:10 AM
The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. (http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/03/27/58d8ec9022601d96158b45aa.html) The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

()

Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. :(
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 27, 2017, 12:56:33 PM
The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. (http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/03/27/58d8ec9022601d96158b45aa.html) The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

()

Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. :(
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2017, 01:22:42 PM
The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. (http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/03/27/58d8ec9022601d96158b45aa.html) The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.

()

Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. :(
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.
The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 27, 2017, 02:45:57 PM
The CUP, Candidatura de Unidad Popular, a far-left anti capitalist party, tried to occupy the headquarters of the PP Catalonia in Barcelona. The youth wing of the party, barricaded themselves in front of the PP headquarters and tried to get in. The goal of the protest was to demand a referendum of Catalonia Independence.

The spokesperson of the party and lead figure in the party, Anna Gabriel, went to the scene to support the protest.


Regardless of their positions, these kind of acts are shameful. :(
Why are you expecting anti- capitalists to play by the ridiculous notions of what constitutes political activity in a capitalist society?
Not to mention, if Spain would just allow a referendum, none of this would be happening.
The problem is that the constitution bars any attempt that threatens the territorial union of Spain. To change that, i believe all autonomous regions must say yes to the constitutional change and that's not going to happen. It's a difficult situation to be resolved.

No; autonomous regions don't have to ratify the change (in fact they play no role at all). The process to reform the constitution would require the "aggravated" reform process (equivalent to rewriting the constitution, though partial ammendments can also be proposed through this method) as it'd require repealing or ammending article 2:

The Constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, the
common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards,
and it recognizes and guarantees the
right to self-government of the nationalities and regions of which it is composed and the
solidarity among them all.


To reform or repeal article 2 the following process must be followed:

  • First the Congress of Deputies and the Senate must approve the ammendment by a 2/3 majority each
  • Then both houses are dissolved and a new general election is called
  • After the general election both newly elected houses must ratify the ammendment
  • Finally a referendum in all of Spain is called (no special requirements, just more "yes" than "no" votes)

After that Catalonia could hold their referendum. Not like it matters as that process would basically require PP's approval, which they'd never give. Spain's unity and all.

In theory a non-binding referendum could be passed against the government's will with a PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV abstaining, but again, PSOE would never opt for that, and I'd be surprised if Catalan nationalists were happy with a non binding referendum (I guess Congress could pass a binding one, then have it inmediately shot down by the constitutional court)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 27, 2017, 03:00:46 PM
Thanks for the correction, tack50 :)

I wrote that about the autonomies because i recall reading an article that said Andalucia or Extremadura would never accept Catalonia independence because of their economic disadvantage from the rest of Spain. But i clearly misinterpreted.

Basically, there's no simple solution to this. Although i'm quite convinced that if such referendum was held, the no to independence would win. But that's just my hunch.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 27, 2017, 03:28:22 PM
There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 27, 2017, 04:05:45 PM
There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 27, 2017, 04:53:01 PM
There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)

Agreed on all three points. I was trying to present the legal view of the Catalan separatists though, who believe that their victory in 2015 served the purpose of contradicting the legality of Article 2, and that any ruling by the Constitutional Court is skewered by the fact that the Senate, which is elected in a manner that favours the unionists, nominates the judges. Their last point is hardly illegitimate.

Convergencia voted with the Constitutionalists in the referendum IIRC, a look back on that

()

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 30, 2017, 01:09:18 PM
Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 30, 2017, 01:23:29 PM
Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
  3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 30, 2017, 02:05:46 PM
Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
  3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)
PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 01, 2017, 03:12:14 AM
Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
  3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)
PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

Depends on who the PP candidate would be after the election, no? C's won't want to govern with PSOE and Podemos (or IU), but it would be a huge problem for them if they support Pedro Antonio Sánchez. A friend from Murcia says the main reason why Sánchez doesn't go is because Válcarcel (former Murcia President) has too many things to cover that could go public if Sánchez speaks or something along those lines.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 01, 2017, 07:06:04 AM
Apparently things are slowly but surely progressing in Murcia. Maybe they'll get rid of the allegedly corrupt PP governor there after all?

Then again if they go to new elections either it's a hung parliament and there's another PP+Cs government, even if the governor might be judged for corruption, or it's a PP absolute majority (Murcia is very conservative, PP came within 1 seat of an overall majority)

A PSOE+Cs+Podemos government wouldn't last more than 10 minutes considering how much Cs and Podemos hate each other, and there's no way PSOE+Podemos gets a majority in Murcia
Indeed, the last poll for Murcia, from earlier this month, shows the PP gaining more than C's and PSOE and Podemos getting a lower result than in 2011:

39.1% PP
22.9% PSOE
12.9% C's
12.0% Podemos
  3.6% IU

The poll was made in the beginning of this scandal. Giving a big margin of error, due to Spain's not so accurate polls, could we be seeing parts of the electorate swinging to the PP because they want a more stable government, even thought the electorate knows they are sleaze?

Probably, and I'd argue there was something similar to some extent between December 2015 and June 2016 at the national level(though lower turnout and Podemos losing a big chunk of voters were more important factors)

Interestingly though, Murcia actually reformed their electoral law in 2015, right after the regional election. Now they only have a single at-large constituency with a 3% hurdle, as opposed to the previous 5 constituencies with a 5% hurdle.

With the poll you posted, that would yield this parliament:

PP 20 (-2)
PSOE 12 (-1)
Cs 6 (+2).
Podemos 6 (=)
IU 1 (+1)

So, almost certainly a hung parliament. Back on the day PP could get the 48% or so required for an overall majority, but probably not now, especially not with such a candidate.

Depends on who the PP candidate would be after the election, no? C's won't want to govern with PSOE and Podemos (or IU), but it would be a huge problem for them if they support Pedro Antonio Sánchez. A friend from Murcia says the main reason why Sánchez doesn't go is because Válcarcel (former Murcia President) has too many things to cover that could go public if Sánchez speaks or something along those lines.

No idea about that, but if PP are willing do drop Sánchez (the national branch have actually told them to do so, but the regional branch refuses) the Cs+PP pact will start again. If not, hung parliament and repated elections until either PP drops their candidate, PSOE+IU+Podemos get a majority, or PP gets a majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 01, 2017, 07:10:28 AM
Also, there is finally a date for the PSOE primaries. Here's the calendar:

20th April-4th of May: Candidates collect signatures to become formal candidates
28th of April: Census closes
21st of May: the day people vote

Also, the governor of Castille La Mancha has said he and many others will link their future to the result of the primaries.

After that I am hoping Sanchez wins in a landslide, if only to see their reaction XD


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on April 01, 2017, 12:07:14 PM
Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on April 01, 2017, 12:10:25 PM
Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

there isn't a strong far-right party in spain and if you are "against the system" and not an enemy of "socialism" (whatever), i guess a case for - like we say over here - a crossover-alliance could be made.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on April 01, 2017, 12:54:06 PM
Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

If you understand why the Flemish consider Défi/FDF far right, then you maybe there have the closest analogy I can find.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 02, 2017, 05:12:03 AM
Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

It's not. But like UPyD, the party is not terribly favourable to decentralisation (although C's not as much as UPyD) and in Spain centralisation is very strongly associated to the right-wing, so a party that does not support the status quo but even talks of revoking certain regional powers (like the concierto in Navarra and the Basque Country) is perceived as to the right of the PP in those parts. The exception being Catalonia for obvious reasons.

Also, in the case of Galicia, it did not help that they picked as candidate a women tied to the very right-wing Interconomía/Libertad Digital media group.

In any case, people who you would usually consider far-right are usually loyal voters of the PP, even if they are not too happy to vote for 'Maricomplejines' Rajoy. The PP makes sure not to allow the growth of any party to its right.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 02, 2017, 06:20:18 AM
Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

It's not. But like UPyD, the party is not terribly favourable to decentralisation (although C's not as much as UPyD) and in Spain centralisation is very strongly associated to the right-wing, so a party that does not support the status quo but even talks of revoking certain regional powers (like the concierto in Navarra and the Basque Country) is perceived as to the right of the PP in those parts. The exception being Catalonia for obvious reasons.

Also, in the case of Galicia, it did not help that they picked as candidate a women tied to the very right-wing Interconomía/Libertad Digital media group.

In any case, people who you would usually consider far-right are usually loyal voters of the PP, even if they are not too happy to vote for 'Maricomplejines' Rajoy. The PP makes sure not to allow the growth of any party to its right.

Yeah. The closest thing to a far-right party is VOX, which came within 1500 votes of getting a seat in the 2014 European Parliament elections (got 1.57% of the vote), but since then they've gone downhill fast. Currently they have 0.2% of the vote and only 22 councillors in town halls (out of more than 67 000).

There might be demand for a party further right than PP, and a poll found out that if former Prime Minister Aznar (a Rajoy critic from the right) founded his own party and ran again he would get up to 15% of the vote and 51 seats. (coming in 4th; behind PP, PSOE and Podemos, but above Cs).

However Rajoy and the PP seem to be very good at avoiding the formation of far right parties, probably appealing to "if you don't vote for us Podemos wins so vote tactically for us". Had VOX kept their results from 2014, they'd have 1 seat for Madrid (they got 3.7% of the vote there)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on April 02, 2017, 07:07:31 AM
Why Murcia so conservative? It's right next to Andalusia which is more left leaning and it was a heavily republican area during the Spanish civil war


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 02, 2017, 07:23:01 AM
Why Murcia so conservative? It's right next to Andalusia which is more left leaning and it was a heavily republican area during the Spanish civil war

Andalusia is left-leaning but eastern Andalusia a lot less, particularly Almería and to a lesser extent Granada. In these parts the typical jornalero-señorito divide existing in Sevilla for instance is a lot less prominent, with many more small land owners. The same applies to Murcia. Then there's the fact that Murcia is home to a large number of very religious and conservative groups, like the kikos and the Opus Dei. A Murcia friend likes to joke that Murcia is Spain's Alabama.

Then there's also the issue of how poor the Murcian economy was doing in the 90s - rioting over industrial closures led to people setting the regional assembly on fire - when the PSOE governed and then was followed by the tourism boom from the late 90s on, coinciding with the PP administration, and hence the economic improvement was tied to the PP. Murcia is closer economically and socially to Valencia than Almería, but without the nasty Catalanist-antiCatalanist cleavage.

Yeah. The closest thing to a far-right party is VOX, which came within 1500 votes of getting a seat in the 2014 European Parliament elections (got 1.57% of the vote), but since then they've gone downhill fast. Currently they have 0.2% of the vote and only 22 councillors in town halls (out of more than 67 000).

There might be demand for a party further right than PP, and a poll found out that if former Prime Minister Aznar (a Rajoy critic from the right) founded his own party and ran again he would get up to 15% of the vote and 51 seats. (coming in 4th; behind PP, PSOE and Podemos, but above Cs).

True, but even then it would not be a right-wing populist party as we see them in Europe, but rather a hard-right party, like a tougher, nastier, more Thatcherite version of the PP, not a Front National.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 04, 2017, 04:45:47 AM
And the governor of Murcia, Pedro Antonio Sánchez finally resigned. That means PP will hold the Murcia governor for the remaining of the term, and that the no confidence vote will almost certainly fail (Cs probably abstains or votes no now).

No idea who the new governor will be though, as he will remain as PP leader in the region (not a rare arrangement, many times parties have one person as regional leader but another as governor candidate).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 05, 2017, 02:16:08 PM
There have been lots of interesting developments concerning Gibraltar reciently. Basically Spain will get veto powers on any Brexit deal on Gibraltar.

The UK has become very angry about it, and there have been some interesting headlines in British "newspapers" like The Sun, and comments about going to war!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 10, 2017, 07:24:11 AM
Carme Chacón has passed away:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/10/inenglish/1491808518_435961.html

Quote
Carme Chacón, a leading figure in the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and Spain’s first-ever female defense minister, was found dead on Sunday evening in her apartment in Madrid. She was 46.

Chacón, who suffered from a congenital heart condition, which is believed to have caused her death, held the Defense Ministry’s top job from 2008 to 2011 under the former PSOE government of then-Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. She was seven months pregnant when she took on the role.

The Socialist politician, who came from Spain’s northeastern Catalonia region, was one of the party’s most popular figures at a time when the PSOE was struggling to deal with the economic crisis. She came extremely close to winning the party leadership after the departure of Zapatero, in the wake of the Socialists’ defeat in the November 2011 elections, but was narrowly beaten by her rival Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 16, 2017, 08:36:36 AM
Poll by El País/Metroscopia about Catalonia:

Would you be in favour of a UDI?


Yes: 33%
No: 62%

In case of a completely legal and negotiated with Spain referendum, what would you vote?

Independence: 44%
Remain: 49%

If it was clear that Catalonia would end up outside the EU in case of independence, what would you vote?

Independence: 40%
Remain: 53%

If there was a 3rd option where Catalonia would remain part of Spain but would get more devolved and fixed powers, what would you vote?


Indepencence: 31%
Status Quo: 19%
More devolution: 46%

Do you think it's ok for Catalonia's integration in Spain to get an agreement where the constitution would give it some differentiated powers?


Catalonia: Yes: 70% No: 27%
Rest of Spain: Yes: 33% No: 61%

Regional election poll

PDECat: 11%
ERC: 29.2% (total JxSi: +0.7)
Cs: 16% (-1.2)
Catalunya Si que es Pot: 16% (+7.1)
PSC-PSOE: 13% (+0.3)
PP: 5.8% (-2.7)
CUP: 4.1% (-4.1)
Others: 4.9% (+0.6)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/11/media/1491901157_109575.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on April 16, 2017, 01:49:19 PM
Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 17, 2017, 05:05:46 AM
Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?

IC-V is part of the Catalunya si que es pot coalition, alongside Podemos. And idk why independence has fallen slightly. I guess backlash against Rajoy dying down+the pro-independence coalition going through a hard time? (a leaked audio of a PDECat leader reciently saying that if the "proces" failed they should go back towards being pro autonomy and against independence, like pre-2012)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 18, 2017, 06:42:38 AM
So something major just happened. The judges of the Gürtel case (corruption scandal linked to the illegal financing of the PP in Valencia and Madrid and possibly national levels) have called on Rajoy to come and declare as a witness.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 19, 2017, 03:29:00 PM
Got bored and with spare free time and decided what would happen if in Spain we elected Congress like the UK/US instead of proportionally. Also without reapportioning anything (so seats in say, Soria would have less people than those in Madrid) Decided to start with the Canary Islands. With this map of districts here are the 2011, 2015 and 2016 results:

()

Las Palmas
2011:
PP 8 (clean sweep)

2015:
Podemos: 4 (Lanzarote, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria*3)
PP: 4 (Fuerteventura and Agüimes, Gran Canaria South, Gran Canaria West, Telde and Ingenio)

2016:
PP 8 (clean sweep)

Santa Cruz de Tenerife

2011:
PP 7 (clean sweep)

2015:
PP 6
PSOE 1 (Tenerife South West)

2016:
PP 7 (clean sweep)

Conclusion: PP sweeps 2016 (split in the left) and 2011 (PP landslide) as expected. Podemos is surprisingly competitive in Las Palmas! (they could have also taken the Fuerteventura seat). PSOE surprisingly bad (only narrowly takes 1 seat in Tenerife, might have also taken the La Palma/La Gomera/El Hierro seat with some serious effort)

Of course it's just fiction as if we did that we'd have a (much stronger) 2 party system, but still nice to look at it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 20, 2017, 11:43:23 AM
I'm afraid I can't see the image.

However, I've designed a couple of alternate electoral maps myself.

Spain 2016 election: http://imgur.com/KqCnGOB
Spain 2015 election: http://imgur.com/vFLPtyK
Spain 2011 election: http://imgur.com/AvabjRK
Madrid 2015 election: http://imgur.com/Hin7Q5m
Catalonia 2015 election: http://imgur.com/nfwxiCo
Catalonia 2012 election: http://imgur.com/Ai91tQK

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 20, 2017, 11:50:18 AM

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 20, 2017, 06:54:42 PM

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?

Not at all. It was proposed back in 2014 when the PP had a majority, and the opposition rejected it so hard, they haven't proposed it again, at best hinted at it under Cifuentes. If there's a reform of the Asamble de Madrid, it'd be open the lists up, lower the threshold from 5% to 3% and reduce its size from around 120 to around 100.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 21, 2017, 02:44:58 AM

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?
Didn't know about Madrid, but many other places are trying to pass reforms. Murcia passed a reform as part of the PP+Cs deal (went from 5 constituencies to a single at-large one; with the hurdle being reduced from 5% to 3%)

Another place where electoral reform is being discussed is in the Canary Islands, where the minor islands get as much of a voice as the 2 large ones even though they only have 20% of the people. However parties can't agree on a reform so I don't have much hope for that one. A proposal was to include 10 extra at large legislators to make the system more proportional, but PP and NC rejected that. Others want to keep the system as is (maybe lowering the hurdles from 6 to 3% regional and from 30 to 15% in an island). NC proposed increasing the number of legislators in GC/TF from 15 to 22, and in FV from 7 to 8.

At the national level I also remember electoral reform being discussed but I don't think it will pass unless the 4 main parties agree on a big constitutional reform package, which isn't likely to happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 21, 2017, 04:19:34 AM

People's Party proposal for electoral reform in Madrid to shift to a MMP system: http://imgur.com/kazeImb

How likely is electoral reform to pass?
Didn't know about Madrid, but many other places are trying to pass reforms. Murcia passed a reform as part of the PP+Cs deal (went from 5 constituencies to a single at-large one; with the hurdle being reduced from 5% to 3%)

Yeah, but the thing is that Madrid already pretty much has perfect proportionality, and lowering the threshold is only a priority for parties that barely failed to meet it (aka IU, maybe UPyD). As for the open lists, I'm not sure it can be done without changing the LOREG, which is not really up to the comunities beyond proposing a law to Congress - which would then actually have to pass.

Another place where electoral reform is being discussed is in the Canary Islands, where the minor islands get as much of a voice as the 2 large ones even though they only have 20% of the people. However parties can't agree on a reform so I don't have much hope for that one. A proposal was to include 10 extra at large legislators to make the system more proportional, but PP and NC rejected that. Others want to keep the system as is (maybe lowering the hurdles from 6 to 3% regional and from 30 to 15% in an island). NC proposed increasing the number of legislators in GC/TF from 15 to 22, and in FV from 7 to 8.

Interesting. I can understand that in an archipelago the territorial element it's important, since each island has rather clearer interestes, but that seems excessive. I suppose you can either expand Parliament (easy to do, but unpopular) or create as you say an at-large constituency (politicall hard to do, popular-ish). The issue is that at the ed of the day, people don't care too much about electoral law. And when they do it's always the same of say that Spain should be a single constituency of 350 deputies, which imho is a ludicrous idea, or worse those on the hard-right/far-right like Jimenez Los Santos or Vox who want FPTP.

At the national level I also remember electoral reform being discussed but I don't think it will pass unless the 4 main parties agree on a big constitutional reform package, which isn't likely to happen.

Yeah, any realistic reform of the LOREG beyond the simplest thing (closed > open lists; expanding Congress to its constitutional maximum of 400 deputies), requires a constitutional amendment, like to do away with the province as the basic electoral unit, which is a ridiculous requirement designed to favour the UCD (!!). It could be removed but since Podemos insists on putting every single amendment (even one as unconsequential as this one) to a vote in referendum and the PP would oppose it and it has a majority in the Senate...

I could always imagine a compromise where the provincial unit gets removed, and in exchnage the law for local elections is changed to a semi-parliamentary system where the mayor is elected by a two-round vote separate from the local council. But since atm Spain has a government but no opposition (mess in PSOE, Podemos failing at institutional politics and C's trying to be both government and opposition party simultaneously)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 22, 2017, 05:41:20 AM
In other news, former governor of Madrid Ignacio Gonzalez (2012-2015) has been sent to jail tonight. Yet another PP politician that goes to jail.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 22, 2017, 05:54:25 AM

Quote
Yeah, but the thing is that Madrid already pretty much has perfect proportionality, and lowering the threshold is only a priority for parties that barely failed to meet it (aka IU, maybe UPyD). As for the open lists, I'm not sure it can be done without changing the LOREG, which is not really up to the comunities beyond proposing a law to Congress - which would then actually have to pass.

Yeah, the communties are very limited in that aspect. Other than the ones I discussed, I guess other than de-gerrymandering Castille La Mancha (not likely to happen as that backfired so bad PP was actually hurt by it, not helped! Maybe Podemos can pressure but Garcia-Page is one of the most anti-Podemos PSOE governors.) I can't think of any meaningful reforms. Maybe have the Basque Country give different numbers of seats per province (not sure if PNV is helped or hurt by it)? Or in general make the system more proportional everywhere?


Quote
Interesting. I can understand that in an archipelago the territorial element it's important, since each island has rather clearer interestes, but that seems excessive. I suppose you can either expand Parliament (easy to do, but unpopular) or create as you say an at-large constituency (politicall hard to do, popular-ish). The issue is that at the ed of the day, people don't care too much about electoral law. And when they do it's always the same of say that Spain should be a single constituency of 350 deputies, which imho is a ludicrous idea, or worse those on the hard-right/far-right like Jimenez Los Santos or Vox who want FPTP.

Sure, there's no perfect solution (although in the Canary Islands, people do care, at least in Gran Canaria). The at-large constituency was expanding parliament (from 60 to 70 iirc). And yeah, most proposals are the old "make Spain 1 at large constituency" or the like, which require a constitutional reform anyways. The only one that didn't that I've seen was Cs proposal (Expand parliament to 400 members, use the remaining 50 to make it proportional, like MMP).

Also, since when does VOX want FPTP? Do they want to never ever get elected? I can see why some people would want that, it does have advantages like politicians being able to defy their party without being forced out of the list, but also has lots of disadvantages. We also use sort of FPTP in the Senate and it's not like the politicians there defy their parties that much.

Quote
Yeah, any realistic reform of the LOREG beyond the simplest thing (closed > open lists; expanding Congress to its constitutional maximum of 400 deputies), requires a constitutional amendment, like to do away with the province as the basic electoral unit, which is a ridiculous requirement designed to favour the UCD (!!). It could be removed but since Podemos insists on putting every single amendment (even one as unconsequential as this one) to a vote in referendum and the PP would oppose it and it has a majority in the Senate...

I could always imagine a compromise where the provincial unit gets removed, and in exchnage the law for local elections is changed to a semi-parliamentary system where the mayor is elected by a two-round vote separate from the local council. But since atm Spain has a government but no opposition (mess in PSOE, Podemos failing at institutional politics and C's trying to be both government and opposition party simultaneously)

Yeah. I personally don't think a referendum would be a problem for a simple reform (would most likely pass like 65-35 at least if it's popular and everyone endorses it). But I can see why a referendum is not something others want to do.

And yes, we don't have an opposition at the moment. PSOE will have to work with the government sometimes so they would be a weird opposition. Podemos as you say does not know how to do institutional politics (Iglesias did mean it when they said they'd be in the streets: see their "tramabus"). I guess if Errejón had won they would bee a lot better off. Cs same as PSOE but even more with the government.

I guess ERC and Rufián are the leaders of the opposition now? XD


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 24, 2017, 01:20:23 PM
Esperanza Aguirre resigns as councillor in Madrid's town hall

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/04/24/58fe097c22601dcb318b4617.html

Well, I guess she'll be resigning for now, but she has often resigned, then returned to politics. It wouldn't surprise me at all if she was a candidate for something in 2019 or 2020 (though no idea of what, there's no chance she runs for mayor again and Cifuentes will definitely run for reelection as governor). I also don't see her as candidate for the European elections. Maybe she'll run as a regular backbencher MP?

Edit: She is 65, would be 67 in 2019. Probably will just retire.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 25, 2017, 06:03:20 AM
Apparently someone detained in the Lezo case (Pablo González?) has a kid at my university, by word of my old Spanish professor. Not sure who they are though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 27, 2017, 04:48:32 AM
Big news: Podemos will present a no confidence vote against Rajoy

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/podemos-plantea-mocion-censura-contra-rajoy-6000718

I guess it's a way to try and influence the PSOE primary? (forcing them to reiterate their support towards a corrupt PP government). Though the PSOE could vote yes if they are sure that Catalan parties or the PNV will abstain (a no confidence vote requires 50%+1). Maybe they just want some headlines?

I seriously doubt this is actually intended to put Iglesias as PM.

Edit: I was right. PSOE has said they won't support it, so it's going nowhere. The best paralel is the 1987 no confidence vote, when PSOE had an absolute majority and it was a worthless no confidence vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on April 28, 2017, 01:41:34 AM
Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on April 28, 2017, 11:59:40 AM
Well it wasn't worthless. It sank Hernández Mancha's career as leader of AP. Let's see what happens to Iglesias

Pablo Igkesias is not a jerk like that Hernández Mancha. He is the Spanish Lenin: a true Alpha Male ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 02, 2017, 12:12:46 PM
Weird polling for Madrid's regional assembly:

El País/Metroscopia

PP: 36 seats (25,7%) (-12 seats, -7.3%)
Podemos: 35 seats (24,9%) (+8 seats, +6.3%)
Ciudadanos: 31 seats (22.6%)(+14 seats, +10,5%)
PSOE: 27 seats (19.7%) (-10 seats, -5.7%)

PP+Cs still hold a majority, and expanded a bit. Also, there's a sorpasso not just from Podemos, but also from Cs! Huge changes overall, I'm not sure if it's all that reliable.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/04/30/media/1493576170_430043.html

La Razón/NC Report

PP: 51 seats (35.9%)  (-3 seats, +2.8%)
PSOE: 34 seats (24,6%) (-3 seats, -0.8%)
Podemos: 26 seats (18,1%) (-1 seat, -0.5%)
Cs: 18 seats (13,1%) (+1 seat, +0.9%)

http://www.larazon.es/local/madrid/cifuentes-sube-tres-escanos-tras-la-crisis-de-la-operacion-lezo-FC15063053

PP and Cs also increase their majority slightly.

This one is a lot closer to the national average, and I don't think Madrid will deviate all that much from the national average for a general election. It's not the first place that comes to mind when talking about "dual voting" (the Basque Country is a great example, with PNV winning regional elections and Podemos winning general ones)

In any case I'd say Madrid is lean PP for 2019's regional election, maybe even likely PP (Cifuentes is doing a good job at distancing herself from the recient corruption cases). If PSOE was not able to win in 2015 or in 2003 (the second election) or 2007, it's definitely not winning now, and even with Errejón as Podemos' candidate a Podemos victory is also unlikely.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 02, 2017, 12:47:08 PM
How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on May 02, 2017, 12:55:57 PM
Yet another poll for the region of Madrid. I think it shows Metroscopia is the rather off one.

In this scenario, the current Cifuentes government would lose its majority, being replaced with a left-wing PSOE-Podemos government. The polling was done in the last couple of days, so it reflects the Operación Lezo aftermath.

La Sexta/Invymark

PP: 44 seats (30.9%) (-4 seats, -2.2 pp.)
PSOE: 36 seats (25.8%) (-1 seats, +0.4 pp.)
Podemos: 30 seats (21.3%) (+3 seats, +2.7 pp.)
Ciudadanos: 19 seats (13.5%)(+2 seats, +1.4 pp.)

While it's true Madrid won't deviate too much from the national vote, Madrid I think is the region where Ciudadanos can obtain its best results, so depending on how things develop down the road with regards to what seems to be only the beginning of yet another round of tremendous PP corruption scandals, it could be greatly benefited. Also, Madrid does experience dual voting insofar as the PSM is no longer the second most-voted party in the general election, but remains so in the autonomic elections, perhaps as the PSM's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo is a pretty popular person in the left (thanks to his tenure as Education Minister under ZP) and who's not unpopular amongst the right either. I know a few friends who liked Gabilondo's smooth, tranquil political persona and voted for him in the regional election, but Podemos (or even Ciudadanos) in the local and the national election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 03, 2017, 03:49:18 AM
How are the podemos inspired mayors/local groups holding up in popularity?

Old polls but anyways (keep in mind approval ratings in Spain are usually given as a 1-10 score instead of regual approval/disapproval):

Manuela Carmena, Madrid (March 2016): +6 approval rating
Ada Colau, Barcelona (January 2017): 5,1/10 score
Jose María "Kichi", Cádiz (June 2016): 4,7/10 score

From what I can tell, they are all doing reasonably well for Spanish politicians. Just being above water or at least close to a 5/10 is already an achievement. Rajoy is at a 3/10 for comparison




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 04, 2017, 06:11:38 AM
Surprise in the PSOE primaries!

Susana Diaz wins the collection of endorsements, but by a smaller margin than expected especially considering she has basically the entire party leadership with her.

She collects 62000, Pedro Sánchez 57000 (beating his 2014 record) and Patxi López 12000 (though he refused to make this step a preliminary primary)

I guess this means the PSOE primary is too close to call?

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/05/04/590aef9fe5fdea4b338b4657.html

For reference you need 5% of the party to endorse you (9500 people). And in 2014 the endorsements were:

Pedro Sánchez: 41000 (ended up with 49% of the final vote)
Eduardo Madina: 25000 (ended up with 36% of the final vote)
Antonio Perez-Tapias: 10000 (ended up with 15% of the final vote)

Edit: Apparently the amount of endorsements this time is equal to 70%! of the total PSOE members (and almost equivalent to the amount of voters in 2014)

So either the primaries will have ridiculously high turnout (90% or more, which considering the circumstances might happen) or the result won't vary much from the endorsements collection.

Only other option for an upset is Patxi López dropping out for some reason, but again isn't likely to happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Kamala on May 08, 2017, 06:49:47 PM
I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 09, 2017, 05:27:12 AM
I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

Yeah, Macron is basically French Albert Rivera/Cs. Both are centrist pro-EU liberals. Cs does have an extra anti corruption platform (at least in theory, depending on who you ask it's not all that enforced, although they did manage to kick out the corrupt governor in Murcia reciently) which I don't think Macron has, and an anti Catalan independence platform (not an issue in French Catalonia/Basque Country).

As for whether Macron's victory will help Cs, I don't know but I'm leaning on no. It definitely won't hurt either though. He seems to be using it as publicity for his liberal platform and being proud of France electing a liberal though, so maybe it will help him slightly?

For all what's worth I don't see any scenario leading to a "Prime Minister Rivera", or even to a Cs governor (Catalonia would be their best bet in a wide anti independence movement, but that seems extremely unlikely)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on May 09, 2017, 07:38:35 AM
2 new polls:

CIS
()

Invymark/laSexta
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 10, 2017, 09:14:46 AM
I've heard a lot about Macron being similar to Rivera and the Cs - how apt is this comparison? Does Macron's victory in France bode well for Cs in Spain at all?

Yeah, Macron is basically French Albert Rivera/Cs. Both are centrist pro-EU liberals. Cs does have an extra anti corruption platform (at least in theory, depending on who you ask it's not all that enforced, although they did manage to kick out the corrupt governor in Murcia recently) which I don't think Macron has, and an anti Catalan independence platform (not an issue in French Catalonia/Basque Country).

I'd be very careful with such comparisons, even though some media in Spain like to resort to them. While it's true that there are similarities on the "centrist pro-EU liberal" thing, there are many differences between the Beautiful Rivera and the Flawless Macron, as well between C's and En Marche! or between the political situations in Spain and France.

To begin with personal backgrounds: Macron was a very young cabinet member with the socialist Hollande (Minister of Economy!), briefly a PS member and never elected to any representative post until past Sunday. To the contrary Rivera has never been appointed minister, was never a PSOE member (some reports claim that he was in the PP youth organisation), but he has been a very young party leader and elected representative (member of the Parliament of Catalonia and later of the Congress of Deputies). Also, Rivera has never been in something similar to the ENA.

On the other hand, C's and En Marche! (with their slightly different origins and organisational models) might have in common the anti-corruption thing (Fillongate!), but hardly the anti-separatist thing. Peripheral nationalism is a Spanish phenomenon  that means very little in France (although there are some separatists in the Pays Basque). The origins of C's are in Catalonia and in the fight against Catalan nationalism. The "centrist pro-EU liberal" thing came later, although in the beginning the official ideology of the party was some place between liberalism and socialdemocracy (currently only liberalism).

The C's people is very happy with the Macron phenomenon for obvious reasons. However they should curb their enthusiasm a bit, because they can make fools of themselves. For instance, the claim made by MEP Javier Nart on a private meeting between him and Macron with Rivera present had to be denied by the C's leader in TV. Rivera had to admit: "I have never met Macron".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 14, 2017, 04:29:38 AM
Multiscenario poll by El Mundo-Sigma Dos depending on who wins the PSOE primaries:
()


http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/05/14/591750e9468aebac518b4590.html

Interesting to see that it's Pedro Sánchez who would perform the best, getting 2011-like results, back when Podemos/Cs did not exist! instead of Patxi López as common wisdom would have it. Then again 2011 was a terrible result for PSOE. Maybe the 2 party system is coming back? (PSOE+PP easily get more than 55% even with Susana Díaz, while back in 2015 they weren't able to even get 50%)

Generic poll (without mentioning the candidate):

()

Other than PSOE making a comeback (unsurprising considering Podemos' circus) and Cs making small gains (unsurprising considering the "Operación Lezo") the other thing that sticks out to me is PDECat getting half the votes than in 2015! Maybe Catalan nationalism is dying out? (ERC is stable, not rising). Seems weird considering nationalists in the Canary Islands and the Basque Country are getting tons of concessions (though maybe that's the cause as PDECat voters would prefer a deal with Rajoy in exchange for money like back in the days of Aznar?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on May 15, 2017, 08:21:52 AM
From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 15, 2017, 09:09:01 AM
From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.

Indeed. Susana Díaz is so devoid of substance that makes Pedro Sánchez good. It's not strange that Mariano Rajoy is still hanging on when you consider how worthless are the leaders of the opposition parties: the red, the purple and the orange. I'll try to watch the video when I can, just for the fun.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 15, 2017, 04:21:04 PM
What is Lopez like?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 15, 2017, 04:48:57 PM
From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.
From what I can discern, Susana Diaz is everything people hate about Hillary Clinton multiplied by 100.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 15, 2017, 04:51:58 PM

Former governor of the Basque Country, and I think he is usually well considered (though he lost reelection in 2012, but then again, so did all PSOE governors at the time except in Andalucia and Asturias).

Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition, with the objectives of fighting terrorism and the like (and ETA dissolved under his watch, so mission accomplished there I guess).

As for the position in the party, he used to support Sánchez but has moved on and is running between Sanchez and Diaz. He is considered a good candidate, but without a chance, and since the leadership election is FPTP this has led to the "train crash" (as Lopez puts it) between Diaz supporters and Sanchez supporters.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 15, 2017, 05:16:20 PM
From what I understood, the PSOE primary debate was...rough to say the least.
Sanchez may not be a politically genius, but Susana Diaz makes it soooo easy to hate her.
From what I can discern, Susana Diaz is everything people hate about Hillary Clinton multiplied by 100.

Yeah, I've often seen stuff like "Susana Diaz seems to want to become Spanish Hillary. Didn't she learn anything?".

Also, her region has been in quite a bad shape under her tenure as governor. Then again it's Andalucía, no one expects it to be in good shape but still. Her branch of the party is also the most corrupt PSOE branch by far (at the rates of PP in Madrid or Valencia). Her 2 predecessors are being judged for corruption.

The more I think about it, the more the PSOE primary reminds me of the US Democratic primary, with Diaz=Hillary, Sanchez=Sanders and Lopez=The minor candidates (O Malley?). Then again there are also huge differences (while Sanchez is running as an anti-establishment candidate like Sanders, he was part of the establishment. Also all Americans were able to vote in the Democratic primary while only around 200k PSOE members can vote in this one. And Patxi Lopez has a lot more traction than O Malley and the like ever got)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 15, 2017, 09:14:33 PM
Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

Quote
After the nationalists' failure to build a successful coalition, the Socialist Party started its contacts. They soon secured the support of their national arch-rival, the conservative People's Party, which vowed to support him in order to oust the nationalists from government after nearly three decades of constant presence. Furthermore Union, Progress and Democracy and Esker Batua, with one MP each, promised not to vote against Mr. López in the investiture session. Thus, the PSE-EE had secured 38 votes in favour and two abstentions, with at most 35 MPs against, and should nothing fail, Mr. López would head the new Basque government. The confirmation of this pact caused the outrage of the PNV, which vowed to put forth its own candidate in the investiture session citing their "right" to head the government as the top-voted party.

The conditions of the pact between the socialist and the conservatives were a matter of constant speculation in the whole of Spain for most of March, with the issue being raised in many political talk shows and press editorials. Many radicals from both parties claimed that the other would just use their coalition partner, effectively diluting their core ideology. As the negotiation advanced, PP leader Antonio Basagoiti made it clear that he would not request positions in the new Government, acknowledging the PSE-EE wish to form a minority government with external support from his party. He vowed to provide stability to the new executive, and attacked the "shamelessness" of PNV outcries, citing that the Álava provincial government was headed by the PNV itself which had only been the third party in the last election. Finally it was decided that the PP would head the Basque Parliament[10] and refrain from moving or supporting any vote of no confidence, while the Socialists would form a minority government on their own and treat the PP as their "preferred" coalition partner, rejecting deals with other parties that went against their "main" one with the conservatives.

The final deal was ratified by both parties and leaked to the public in the last days of March, with its formal signature being performed by the negotiation teams on April 1.[12] The new Parliament assembled on April 3 and elected its bureau, with PP MP Arantza Quiroga as its Speaker and two PSE-EE members ensuring a majority in the 5-member organ. The investiture session for the new Lehendakari, for which both López and the incumbent Ibarretxe stood, was held on May 5. Mr. López was elected Lehendakari of the Basque Country on a 39-35 vote and was sworn in two days later at the Gernika House of Assemblies.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 15, 2017, 10:09:25 PM
Nah PSOE are too entrenched in the south.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 16, 2017, 04:17:20 AM
Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

If you are not that interested, why giving a fyck for the destruction of PSOE?

Nah PSOE are too entrenched in the south.

Even if it doesn't collapse quite as hard as PASOK, could her tenure realistically result in PSOE's marginalization and replacement by Podemos as the undisputed most powerful party of the left, or has Podemos already missed their window to become the primary party of opposition? Again, I'm not particularly well-adversed on Spanish politics so I'm fully aware that I might sound like a total moron on the subject.

Maybe the heart of problem is that Pablo Iglesias and his clique are too obsessed in turning Podemos into the main party of opposition, instead of turning Podemos into a party of government. Despite Susana Díaz claims to be a candidate that can win elections, polls are consistently saying that Pedro Sánchez is the preferred candidate of socialist voters and supporters, as well he would perform better than her in a general election. It's not that Sánchez is brilliant, but the way his rivals ousted and humiliated him have contributed to give our man a maverick aura. In times of hardship, people in Spain loves mavericks. The PSOE is strongly entrenched in certain geographic areas, as well among certain social and age groups. Susana Díaz would be a leader on the defensive but, again, the Podemos leadership is now playing on the defensive too (the motto seems to be "to resist" instead of "to win")


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 16, 2017, 04:49:41 AM
Interestingly he became governor in a PP+PSOE coalition

There wasn't a coalition between PSOE and PP in the Basque Country. Patxi López led a minority government. The PP voted for López in the investiture and gave him confidence and supply. Currently in Spain, Mariano Rajoy leads a minority government after having reached an investiture agreement with Ciudadanos (and after the PSOE's Federal Commision decided that the socialists would abstain).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_regional_election,_2009

Quote
After the nationalists' failure to build a successful coalition, the Socialist Party started its contacts. They soon secured the support of their national arch-rival, the conservative People's Party, which vowed to support him in order to oust the nationalists from government after nearly three decades of constant presence. Furthermore Union, Progress and Democracy and Esker Batua, with one MP each, promised not to vote against Mr. López in the investiture session. Thus, the PSE-EE had secured 38 votes in favour and two abstentions, with at most 35 MPs against, and should nothing fail, Mr. López would head the new Basque government. The confirmation of this pact caused the outrage of the PNV, which vowed to put forth its own candidate in the investiture session citing their "right" to head the government as the top-voted party.

The conditions of the pact between the socialist and the conservatives were a matter of constant speculation in the whole of Spain for most of March, with the issue being raised in many political talk shows and press editorials. Many radicals from both parties claimed that the other would just use their coalition partner, effectively diluting their core ideology. As the negotiation advanced, PP leader Antonio Basagoiti made it clear that he would not request positions in the new Government, acknowledging the PSE-EE wish to form a minority government with external support from his party. He vowed to provide stability to the new executive, and attacked the "shamelessness" of PNV outcries, citing that the Álava provincial government was headed by the PNV itself which had only been the third party in the last election. Finally it was decided that the PP would head the Basque Parliament[10] and refrain from moving or supporting any vote of no confidence, while the Socialists would form a minority government on their own and treat the PP as their "preferred" coalition partner, rejecting deals with other parties that went against their "main" one with the conservatives.

The final deal was ratified by both parties and leaked to the public in the last days of March, with its formal signature being performed by the negotiation teams on April 1.[12] The new Parliament assembled on April 3 and elected its bureau, with PP MP Arantza Quiroga as its Speaker and two PSE-EE members ensuring a majority in the 5-member organ. The investiture session for the new Lehendakari, for which both López and the incumbent Ibarretxe stood, was held on May 5. Mr. López was elected Lehendakari of the Basque Country on a 39-35 vote and was sworn in two days later at the Gernika House of Assemblies.

Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 16, 2017, 04:54:02 AM
Not that interested in Spanish politics, so enlighten me: Should I root for Diaz if I want PSOE to go the route of PASOK?

Yes and no. She is the one with the highest chance of turning PSOE into PASOK, though unlike PASOK, PSOE would probably survive and still win some elections in the south, turning into a "Partido del Sur Oeste Español" (party of the Spanish SouthWest).

On the other hand, Podemos doesn't seem like a viable party to replace them. Had Errejón won the primaries and become the new leader then sure, PSOE would die with Diaz (though even with Lopez or Sanchez they'd be on a tougher position). But if it's Iglesias vs Diaz I can't see Podemos gaining that much. I guess a result could be:

PP: 35%
Podemos: 19%
PSOE: 19%
Cs: 15%

With massive abstention on the left (a la 2000, but worse) due to the 2 terribly flawed candidates. In fact, if infighting and unpopular candidates continue to dominate on the left, I expect Rajoy (or whoever replaces him if he retires) to keep rulint at least until 2022.

In fact, Rajoy might become the "right wing Felipe Gonzalez" in that regard. A corrupt president who still managed to make the country prosper more or less (we entered NATO with Gonzalez and Rajoy presided over the exit of the crisis)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 16, 2017, 06:27:51 AM
Oh, my bad, I thought it was an actual coalition. Still he did have some PP support (like Cs does now). Actual coalitions seem rare in Spain to be fair, with minority government+conficence and supply being a popular arrangement instead.

Spain lacks of a tradition of coalition governments at national level, but there have been many coalition agreements at regional and local levels.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 20, 2017, 05:11:47 AM
Considering that tomorrow is the PSOE primary I guess I'd do some predictions. My prediction is:

Governor Susana Díaz (Andalucía): 47%
Former Governor Patxi López (Basque Country): 7%
Former MP and Party Leader Pedro Sánchez (Madrid): 46%

Susana Díaz wins by a hair (and maybe even with some voter fraud). The party is basically split in 2.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 21, 2017, 02:03:22 PM
How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 21, 2017, 02:09:26 PM
According with El Independiente, with 10% of the vote counted, the results are Sanchez 8000 and Diaz 6000.

From Valladolid:

Pedro 916
Susana 399
Patxi 112

Chiclana de la Frontera (Andalucia)
Pedro 154
Susana 113
Patxi 14

Triana (Sevilla)
Patxi 15
Pedro 57
Susana 217

Source: https://twitter.com/carmentorrres?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fv.24liveblog.com%2Flive%2F%3Fid%3D1390397


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 21, 2017, 02:10:18 PM
How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Yeah, la Rioja is a Sanchez leaning area, and a small one anyways.

However, the big surprise thus far IMO has been the enclave of Ceuta! Even smaller than la Rioja, but Susana Diaz won there in the endorsements race. However, Sánchez has apparently won it now in the primary!

http://ceutatv.com/not/1636/-pedro-sanchez-se-impone-en-las-primarias-del-psoe-en-ceuta/

Sanchez 168
Diaz 72
(the source didn't tell Lopez's result)

Granted, it's a very small place, but if that holds up on the rest of Spain, Sánchez is probably favoured.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 21, 2017, 02:11:41 PM
Interesting results:

Navarra
Pedro 864 (69,51%)
Susana 205 (16,49%)
Patxi 164 (13,19%)
blanco 10 (0,80%).

Source: Carmen Torres

Barcelona:
Pedro Sánchez 1199
Susana Díaz 152

Source: https://twitter.com/AntonioMaestre


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 21, 2017, 02:12:07 PM
How is the election going on? From what I'm reading en El Pais is either strong Sanchez (in some parts 90%+) or strong Diaz, but I'm feeling he is doing better overall.

Results from La Rioja

Pedro Sanchez: 602 (60,38%)
Susana Diaz: 225 (22,57%)
Patxi Lopez: 162 (16,25%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PSOELaRioja/status/866366127294861313

I don't know how are PSOE militants in La Rioja (it isn't in Andalucia so I would expect a Sanchez leaning result but I don't really know) but I hope that this performance is a trend across Spain.



Yeah, la Rioja is a Sanchez leaning area, and a small one anyways.

However, the big surprise thus far IMO has been the enclave of Ceuta! Even smaller than la Rioja, but Susana Diaz won there in the endorsements race. However, Sánchez has apparently won it now in the primary!

http://ceutatv.com/not/1636/-pedro-sanchez-se-impone-en-las-primarias-del-psoe-en-ceuta/

Sanchez 168
Diaz 72
(the source didn't tell Lopez's result)

Granted, it's a very small place, but if that holds up on the rest of Spain, Sánchez is probably favoured.

Good good :D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 21, 2017, 02:15:54 PM
According to El Mundo, 50% of the vote is already in and Sánchez is in the lead but no one else is reporting that so I'm not sure if that's true


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 21, 2017, 02:21:43 PM
Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 21, 2017, 02:23:32 PM
Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)

Hahahaha great, if this is true, this is very nice! Ceuta is a weird place haha


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 21, 2017, 02:40:36 PM
Diaz has congratulated Pedro :)

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on May 21, 2017, 02:48:50 PM
Diaz has congratulated Pedro :)

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2017, 03:06:24 PM
Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro :)

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists can govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2017, 03:12:24 PM
Diaz has congratulated Pedro :)

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 21, 2017, 03:12:49 PM
Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro :)

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP's electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists to govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.


My bet is PSOE abstains on Podemos' vote of no confidence (as opposed to voting yes/no) so it fails anyways. However, shortly after PSOE and Podemos begin to plan one, maybe alongside the Catalan parties (promising a referéndum).

Alternatively there's the Cs+PSOE+Podemos route like in Murcia, but just like in Murcia it's only good for making the new president an interim one who will only dissolve parliament and call a new election, so unless there's a new PP scandal involving Rajoy, I don't see it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 21, 2017, 03:17:41 PM
Antonio Hernando (PSOE speaker in the Congress of Deputies) has resigned from his position. Not a huge surprise, Sánchez already said he was going to replace him if he won, so he probably just resigned as the less embarrassing option.

For those who don't know, Hernando was pro-Sánchez back on the day, but then became pro Diaz.

Edit: Just realised that Susana Diaz has become the 4th woman to run for PSOE leader and fail. Before her came:

- Former minister of work Matilde Fernández (2000)
- Then Leader of the PSOE representation in the European Parliament Rosa Diez (2000)
- Then minister of defense Carme Chacón (2012)

In this sense, she kinda becomes the Spanish Hillary Clinton as "woman supported by the establishment who fails". (the 3 before weren't the officialist candidates, especially the first 2)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on May 21, 2017, 05:00:04 PM
Diaz has congratulated Pedro :)

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?
Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.
I agree with you. Patxi Lopéz was the best option of the 3 but, at the same time, not a very good one. Podemos is toxic and any approach of PSOE to them will be very harmful. Iglesias will, with high certainty, try to push PSOE so much to the left that it will lose the center ground and this will make many moderate voters and politicians to break with PSOE, making the PSOE split like the French PS. PSOE needs a strong leader and message to decrease the power and influence Podemos has right now and, also, PSOE has to turn the paper and be them influencing and threatening Podemos, not the other way around.

The Portuguese solution cannot be repeated in Spain, because of what i explained above, but the path the PS is doing could be an example for the PSOE. Mr Costa has, basically, stolen the PSD/CDS economic and fiscal ideas like tight budget control, more emphasis on exports than imports, less public investments and because these policies are, right now, delivering a good economy and a good deficit reduction, which are very popular, the BE/PCP are just swallowing dry because any criticism will hurt them. Also, having a reformist agenda like Macron could help PSOE draw a line with PP, as they could argue that they are offering solutions while PP is trying to defend those sleazy people in court.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2017, 06:08:39 PM
I'm afraid you may be right in what regards the party establishment and the chronification of infighting. As for the dangers of an alliance with Podemos, they are real and it's obvious that Pablo Iglesias will try to push Sánchez further to the left and, at the same time, to exploit the situation in his own benefit. The risk of an implosion in the PSOE is real too, but remember that the popularity of Hollande plummeted because he campaigned as a leftwing politician and governed in a different way. I mean, the problem with socialdemocracy in these days is related with a loss of credibility. Obviously I must agree on the need of a strong leadership. Also, the situation and the balance of forces is different in Spain and Portugal, but Sánchez always mentions the Portuguese example.

Anyway Susana Díaz was by no means the solution for the PSOE. Furthermore, the support that ambitious apparatchik who yearns for the years of the PSOE hegemony (the Felipe González era: 1982-1993) has among the party establishment is a signal of fear, bewilderment and lack of response. On Pedro Sánchez behalf, there is a certain sociologist and PSOE member called Félix Tezanos who says the following (approx translation): "The PSOE needs a strong revulsive, a step change to reconcile the party with the society, after a leadership crisis that lasts for too long". Mr. Tezanos thinks that Pedro Sánchez has grown up and that the shameful way in which he was isolated and ousted, as well the unconditional surrender of the provisional leadersship to the PP, created the conditions for a catharsis. According to him, Sánchez has reborn and comes back with great strength. Also, he hopes that Sánchez will be able to reconnect with the urban and young voters in order to decrease gradually the influence of Podemos: "Dealing with the age gap must be the center of our politics. If the PSOE is able to connect again with the youngsters (...) Podemos will be at 15% and it will be possible to reach reasonable agreements with them. If we are stagnant with an old style leadership, it would be us the ones that may be at 15%".

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170514/422552182775/detras-de-sanchez.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on May 21, 2017, 07:09:17 PM
Well, will see if Sanchéz has changed. Until now, his statements and moves don't seem to show any change. What Félix Tezanos is somewhat i said but i don't agree that PSOE should reach agreements with Podemos. I think with the right message, PSOE can all but destroy Podemos.

Let's see. Podemos main weapon since the beginning is the corruption in Spanish politics. If PSOE or even Sanchéz, i don't think so, but who knows, steals that weapon from Podemos and, for example, tries to tackle corruption within PSOE and propose legislation or actions to prevent corruption, that could help to rehabilitate the party's image. Plus, fiscally responsible policies and reforms in the economy, need to be on the top priorities for PSOE. One of the main criticisms made of social democratic parties is that they are fiscally incompetent and that they create more debt and deficit. Putting forward fiscally moderate and responsible policies will, with little doubt, turn PSOE an even more stronger alternative. If they can be fiscally responsible, prove that they can use taxpayers money carefully, and that they learned from the mistakes of third-way policies that spend, spend will be paid by something, PSOE, like many other social democratic parties, can rise up again. And they need to campaign with this platform. Voters like when politicians offer them real solutions and are truthful in what they are proposing.

I believe this could be a good path for PSOE.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2017, 08:32:04 PM
My opinion is that at this point PSOE and Podemos cannot destroy each other, so they are condemned to reach an understanding. As for the "fiscal responsibility" I'm not particularly fond of that expression, without implying that I'm in favour of spending like there were no tomorrow.  I think that the case of Spain was not one of "fiscal irresponsibility". Let's say that, at the start of the financial crisis, the Zapatero administration had an erratic behaviour. The combined effect of denial of reality with frantic and pointless measures alongside with the sudden turn in the economic policies, constitutional express reform included, was devastating for the PSOE. However, the debt percentage in relation with GDP was low during the Zapatero terms, even though it rose in the final years and the regional debt was underestimated. It was under the Rajoy's "fiscally responsible" administration and its public spending cuts when the debt ratio to GDP surpassed 100%.

Corruption is not the Podemos only weapon, although is an important factor. The surge of Podemos is related too with the lack of expectations affecting the younger generations, including many people with a good training or education, in a country with one of the highest unemployment rates of Europe. The surge of the indignados movement and later the emergence of Podemos created a temporary feeling of illusion and connected many young and/or disillusioned people to politics. That feeling has gone for the most part and Podemos is stagnant or in a soft decline, but it's going to be very hard to kill.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on May 22, 2017, 02:43:58 AM
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170521/422796264745/susana-diaz-solo-gana-dos-comunidades.html

Pretty clear landslide. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 22, 2017, 03:00:46 AM
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170521/422796264745/susana-diaz-solo-gana-dos-comunidades.html

Pretty clear landslide. 

To be fair Andalucia has 1 in 4 PSOE members so it's not that big of a landslide. End result was 50-40-10.

Sanchez performed slightly better in terms of percentage compared to 2014 (when he got 49%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 22, 2017, 03:06:04 AM
And IMO Sanchez's election is a bold move. The PSOE has a lot to gain, but also a lot to lose.

If Sanchez is seen as believable and as a true leftist that isn't a radical one, they have a good shot at taking some of the more conservative Podemos voters (those on the Errejón side of the party). They will lose some voters to Cs (or possibly to abstentions) on the right, but not as many as they'd win on the left. Depending on how many net votes they win, they might even have a chance at winning the election! (something like PSOE 29%, PP 28%, Cs 16% Podemos 16%)

However  if it's seen as "just another move from obsessed egocentric Sanchez to become PM", then PSOE will lose those centrist voters while not gaining any left wing ones. Maybe even getting to Cs levels.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 22, 2017, 03:26:15 AM
Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 22, 2017, 03:37:19 AM
Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

As for Colau, I think she is going to run for governor of Catalonia in the next regional election there. She'll run with her own party (en Comú), with her candidacy being supported by ICV (weird mix of greens and IU) and Podemos, like Cat si que es pot back in 2015. Last poll I checked had Colau in a tie for second with the Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas, both at 16%.

However, Colau will not support PSOE either.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2017, 04:29:39 AM
Remember that Ada Colau and Manuela Carmena are not Podemos members and they are officially neutral. Carmena is an independent and is generally regarded as a moderate. I think that the Colau people has a more fluent relationship with the Errejón faction. I'm not sure that Ada Colau is going to run in the next election in Catalonia. I think she wants to finish her term as Mayor of Barcelona. In case of a snap election the candidate could be Xavier Domenech, who was the top candidate for Barcelona in the general election and is the leader of the new party created by the merger of Barcelona En Comú (the Colau party), ICV, EUiA (the IU branch) and Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on May 22, 2017, 05:34:43 AM
Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

Carmena has ruled out running again so many times lately that I can't count. Also, iirc, Carmena has a difficult relation with the Podemos members of her municipal team.


After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2017, 06:54:24 AM
Indeed, Manuela Carmena has no intent of running again. I think her relationship has been more difficult with the people of Ganemos Madrid (Guillermo Zapata, Celia Mayer). Her number two is Rita Maestre (Podemos, Errejón faction) and my impression is that they have a more fluent relationship, although not without differences. However, other councilors from Podemos prefer to go it alone without asking Carmena. Apparently the Podemos leadership is displeased with said councilors, as well gave instructions to the membership in order to close ranks with Carmena. They think that undermining the moderate Carmena damages their chances of being part of a government of Spain.

After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw)

Poor Susana... :D :D :D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2017, 07:18:06 AM
El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on May 22, 2017, 11:25:40 AM
El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html

They've gone nuts. If the leaked draft is true, they'd literally end separation of powers by directly appointing judges in the interim. And declaring independence if there's no referendum assumes that they have a mandate to do so - and they don't based on the votes of the previous autonomic election or polls lately.

It's an incredible leap into the unknown and I feel like a lot of noise is going to be coming from the PDECat's more autonomist wing about this nonsense.

Also, mapped the primaries.
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on May 22, 2017, 04:29:55 PM
That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 23, 2017, 05:46:12 AM
The motion of no confidence sponsored by Podemos will be discussed by the Congress of Deputies on June 13. Pablo Iglesias would be the alternative candidate for Prime Minister. However, after the results of the PSOE leadership contest were known, Pablo Iglesias offered Pedro Sánchez to withdraw if the reelected socialist leader submits another motion by himself.

The victory of Pedro Sánchez puts an end to the PP-PSOE policy of "national consensus", says Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170523/422819390453/fase-de-ignicion.html

According to El País, the draft of the Catalan government would allow press control during the referendum

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/23/inenglish/1495524055_616252.html

Quote
The independence referendum that the Catalan government wants to hold in late September lacks even the minimum legal guarantees that its sponsors have been promising to uphold. The draft Juridical Transience Law, which EL PAIS has seen, contains significant gaps in the way Catalans would vote on whether to secede from Spain (...)

In related news, Carles Puigdemont was in the Madrid City Hall

Quote
Over 260 people on Monday attended a talk by Catalan Premier Carles Puigdemont on the subject of the independence referendum. The event, held inside Madrid City Hall, made headlines last Friday after the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain publicly asked Puigdemont to cancel the date and come instead to Spanish Congress – the “right place” to discuss sovereignty issues.

There were no representatives of either the ruling Popular Party (PP), the main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) or the reform party Ciudadanos among the attendees. The only member of one of Spain’s four main political groups to show his face was Pablo Iglesias, head of the anti-austerity party Podemos.

Puigdemont evoked history in his address, calling for the same “sense of State” that allowed Catalan leader-in-exile Josep Tarradellas to return to Spain in 1977, after Franco’s death, and restore a Catalan government before there was even a Constitution or a Catalan charter of rights.

Ultimately, he warned that the referendum he is planning will be held, either through “a negotiated referendum” or one that is “backed internationally” if no support is found in Spain.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 23, 2017, 06:06:02 AM
That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.

Ok, let's try this map from El Confidencial then

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2017, 10:22:33 AM
The 2015 local elections reshaped the political landscape of Spain. Madrid, Barcelona and other important cities through the country were conquered by anti-establishment candidacies, which in many cases were the amalgamation of civic and social movements with left-wing parties and were sponsored by Podemos. These local "governments of change" are like the jewels of the crown for the purple party, the main showcase of another possible country. Íñigo Errejón says: "we have the challenge to defend our mayoralties like a treasure, an indispensable conquest on the road ahead".

What the rights and wrongs of the "Mayors of Change" have been? This article series in El País tries to enlighten us.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/05/25/actualidad/1495735424_054038.html

Among the common elements of these local governments, they are mentioned:

- Promotion of citizen participation in decision making
- Focus on social policies and mobility
- Several mayors have reduced the debt, despite omens saying that public spending would increase exponentially

Among the problems they have in common, the article mentions lack of experience and improvisation. Opposition parties complain about sectarianism. In some cases, there is internal division in the governing teams.

Madrid: learning to manage from the scratch

Retired judge Manuela Carmena (aged 73) leads a heterogenous governing team (Ahora Madrid incorporates Podemos, IU, Equo, Ganemos and independents). Top priorities were the "regeneration" of politics, bringing administration closer to the citizens and ensuring economic solvency (PP local administrations left an astronomic debt, especially under Ruíz Gallardón).

The lack of harmony in the fragmented governing team, as well the lack of experience, were reflected in a number of controversies and mistakes. Several councilors acted in their own without asking Carmena. Decision making difficulties on cleaning service, waste management and security. Mistakes on cultural management that forced Carmena to personally take on responsibility.

The low implementation of investments has raised debt repayment. According to the article, in the last months the local government has shown greater efficiency in areas like culture and urban planning. Carmena and her closer associates have taken the control of key projects. Advances in the fight against pollution and citizen participation. The article concludes saying that after a beginning marked by improvisation, the members of the governing team are accomplishing to learn how to manage a big city.

Barcelona: Turn in agenda, big long term plans and lack of realization

The governing team lead by Ada Colau vindicates a change in the agenda of Barcelona and in the investment priorities, with a focus in the fight against inequality and in the housing policy. Barcelona en Comú (11 out of 41 councilors) governs in minority with the PSC (4 councilors) as junior partner, so the governing team is forced to a permanent negotiation with the other parties in the city hall. Two years after the unexpected victoty of the Ada Colau list, Colau's lieutenant Gerardo Pisarello and acting mayor (Colau is on maternity leave) states that they are "quite satisfied" with what has been achieved. There are many projects on the table ("when you make 5 big things they are more visible than 50 middle-sized things" says municipality manager Jordi Martí, a former socialist) and many of them are ambitious long term projects, so there is little realization. The governing team claims that 45% of the term's routemap has been implemented. There is citizen unrest on two issues: housing (evictions continue and rents are high) and overcrowding caused by mass tourism. The fragmented oppsoition is made of incompatible parties (PP, C's, PDECat; ERC and CUP), so they can't present a united front to oust Colau.

Valencia: social policies and change in mobility

Mayor Joan Ribó leads a governing team that incorporates Compromís, PSOE and Valencia en Comú (Podemos and independents). There has been a radical change in policies after 25 years of PP hegemony. Once the Ribó team took office evictions stopped immediately, social benefits to alleviate energy poverty increased ,  certain bullfighting shows were banned and it was promoted a new mobility policy (pedestrianization and 30 km/hr speed limit in downtown). Another major change with regards to the years of Rita Barberá (PP) is the recovery of the historical memory of republican Valencia (the city was the provisional capital between November 1936 and October 1937, during the Civil War), as well the governing team has changed the name of some streets because they had Francoist reminiscences. There is an aim to "separate Church things from State things" and to normalize the use of Valencian (the regional variety of Catalan language). There have been internal differences between Compromís, PSOE and Podemos. The opposition (PP and C's) complains about the "sectarianism" of the governing team.

Other "mayoralties of change" featuring in this articles series: Zaragoza, A Coruña, Santiago and Cádiz.

(Crossposting from the AAD)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 28, 2017, 07:47:50 AM
El País poll about Catalonia and the situation there:

()

Notable questions:

¿Has the PP government handled the Catalonia situation correctly?
(yes-no)
Catalonia: 4-96
Rest of Spain: 19-77

Interestingly even PP voters say it isn't handled correctly

The best way to solve the Catalonian issue is for a legal referendum approved by Catalonia and the central government to happen

Catalonia: 71-26
Rest of Spain: 38-62

Interestingly PSOE is split in the matter, with Catalan PSOE voters favouring a referendum 61-36, but all others opposing it by 44-56.

Do you think Catalonia's independence will be possible in the near future?

Catalonia: 34-62
Rest of Spain: 12-85


The government of Catalonia should:

Keep going with the independence process: (Catalonia 31%; Rest of Spain 11%)
Adopt a negotiationg strategy: (Catalonia 60%; Rest of Spain 79%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 28, 2017, 05:56:34 PM
Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 29, 2017, 07:40:24 AM
Ok, it's official now; Rajoy will manage to pass the 2017 budget, he signed a deal with NC today. That also means that he probably won't call early elections at least until 2019 (probably at the same time as the European or the regional elections), recycling 2017's budget for 2018 if necessary.

The votes will go as follows:
Yes (176): PP (137)+ Cs (32)+ PNV (5) + CC (1) + NC (1)

PP's total includes the MPs from UPN in Navarra and Foro in Asturias.

No (174): PSOE (84) + UP (67) + PDECat (8 ) + ERC (9) + Bildu (2) + Compromis (4)

UP's total includes the MPs from IU.

Interestingly, Pedro Quevedo (NC's only MP) has said he will support Pedro Sánchez in a no confidence vote against Rajoy (thus keeping the promise he made to PSOE), but that in the mean time if he can get stuff for the Canary Islands he will do that even if it means allying with PP.

Then again even with NC, Podemos and the Catalan parties a no confidence vote would still need either CC and Bildu (unlikely, CC does not like Podemos and they need PP to stay alive in the Canary Islands' government), PNV (slightly better but still not likely as they are reaching very good deals with PP) or Cs (with Cs the Catalan parties wouldn't even be needed, but if PSOE+Cs+Podemos didn't work in 2016, it won't work now)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 29, 2017, 07:43:56 AM
Poll for the Barcelona City Hall.

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/barcelona/encuesta-periodico-colau-ganaria-otra-vez-las-municipales-con-erc-como-principal-partido-oposicion-6064862?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cm

Ada Colau's party would win again local elections in Barcelona, ERC  would be the second force in the City Hall at the expense of the PDECat (formerly CDC, CiU).

()

So, according to that poll there are 2 possibilities:

Far left ¿pro independence (idk how you could be pro independence in a town hall, but whatever)? En Comu+ERC+CUP government

Mainstream left, not as pro independence En Comú+ERC+PSC government

Also, En Comú+ERC is very close to a majority. If they 2 alone get one, the government will almost certainly be En Comú+ERC

In any case though, it seems Colau will stay as mayor for another 4 years.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on May 29, 2017, 07:24:58 PM
Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

()

249 PP
  38 Podemos
  33 PSOE
  23 ERC
    7 PNV
    0 C's

A super PP majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on May 29, 2017, 11:02:56 PM
What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 30, 2017, 07:47:55 AM
Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

()

249 PP
  38 Podemos
  33 PSOE
  23 ERC
    7 PNV
    0 C's

A super PP majority.

Interesting to see that while under Spain's current system Podemos beating PSOE in seats but not in votes was a very real possibility even if it didn't happen in the end. However with the UK's system the reverse would happen! PSOE wins the popular vote but gets less seats than UP!

According to the website that happens because PSOE gets very close in many places (La Gomera, industrial areas in Barcelona) but still loses to PP while Podemos has its voters distributed more effectively, concentrated in certain areas (Basque Country, urban Catalonia and some areas of Madrid).

Also, not all seats have the same population since the current system is already not fuly proportional (rural areas have more seats than they should). The Canary Islands for example are terribly malapportioned, with the seats in the minor islands having a lot less people in them than those in the major islands. For example El Hierro and La Palma both have one seat, even though La Palma has more than 8 times el Hierro's population.

Another example is Las Palmas city seat, which would have 350 000 people in it! (35 times more than El Hierro)

A more proportional map there would look like this (requires splitting Las Palmas and Santa Cruz-La Laguna into several seats or multi member districts though)

() (https://ibb.co/i9dFDF)

It does not change the result (PP still sweeps all 15 seats) though. In 2015 though PSOE would have very narrowly won Tenerife South West and Podemos would have won Fuerteventura's seat, as well as some in Las Palmas (they would have won all 3 if it was winner takes all)

Still a great map though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on May 30, 2017, 09:52:13 AM
What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?
I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 30, 2017, 12:07:29 PM
What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?
I believe these results come from the big coastal cities like Málaga or Cadiz plus the tourism resort cities of Marbella, Torremolinos and Isla Cristina. Curiously a similar pattern is also seen in Algarve.

As a general rule, in Andalusia PP performs better in the bigger municipalities (especially in provincial capitals) and in the coast. The Andalusian countryside leans to the left for historical reasons, related with a land tenure system characterised by the existence of large estates and the proletarianization of the workforce, deprived of access to the land. The countryside votes mostly for the PSOE, with some scattered IU strongholds. I think there is an equivalency with certain regions of Portugal where communists are traditionally strong (Beja and Évora districts in Alentejo).

Málaga and the tourist resort cities in Costa del Sol (Marbella, Estepona, Fuengirola) lean PP. In the coastal municipalities of Almería crops grown in greenhouses (mostly fruit and vegetables) are the main economic activity. These places in Almería are PP strongholds.

http://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2010/12/02/almerias-greenhouses-what-goes-on-inside/   

In the rest of provinces you can find resort towns or municipalities or specialised crops (strawberries in Huelva). As for the city of Cádiz, PP came first in 2015 and 2016 but Podemos governs the municipality and came a strong second.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on May 30, 2017, 02:24:53 PM
Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

()

249 PP
  38 Podemos
  33 PSOE
  23 ERC
    7 PNV
    0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 30, 2017, 06:36:31 PM
Found this map on electomania. The map shows if Spain had the UK electoral system, how each party would perform according with the June 26, 2016 election results:

()

249 PP
  38 Podemos
  33 PSOE
  23 ERC
    7 PNV
    0 C's

A super PP majority.

With ERC winning inland Catalonia, and Unidos Podemos winning what I assume is Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida, would it be safe to presume that there is higher support for independence in rural Catalonia than in the cities? why would this be?

Yeah, that's safe to presume. In fact if you go back (2011 and earlier), CiU performed better in rural areas while PSOE won mostly just Barcelona and its suburbs. They have each been replaced as the leading party in each area by ERC and Podemos respectively, but the divide is still there.

If you look at the association of municipalities for independence, most are in rural areas, with the more urban coast not being part of it.

()

Similarly if you look at the results of the 2015 regional election, the pro-independence parties win in most places, but they lose Barcelones (Barcelona), Baix Llobregat, Valles occidental (both Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona), Baix Penedés (idk why), and the Aran Valley (surprisingly one of the most anti independence areas, one where Occitan/Aranese is co-official with Catalan and Spanish)

()

As for why, I guess it's because Barcelona (and to a lesser extent Tarragona) are more "cosmopolitan", have a higher population of Spanish "inmigrants" while rural areas have a higher population of Catalan speakers.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 31, 2017, 07:29:15 AM
Here's another "Spain's election except with the British electoral system" map, this one for 2015

()

PP 206
Podemos 75
PSOE 44
CDC 12 (less votes than ERC)
PNV 8
ERC 5

They also made a map for 2011

()

PP 258
PSOE 46
CiU 33
PNV 8
Amaiur 5

And for 2008

()

PSOE 182
PP 161
PNV 3
CiU 3
CC 1

Interestingly, this one isn't that far off from the actual 2008 results (which shows that the more the 2 main parties get, the more faithful it is, and also how dominant PP+PSOE were back then)

http://simulaciones.es/blog/sistema-electoral-britanico/

http://archive.is/fH1AS


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 31, 2017, 10:45:34 AM
Funny story in the budget debate today: PM Rajoy accidentally voted against one part of his own budget XD

Didn't change the end result though, that item was passed almost unanimously (only Rajoy voted against it)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 01, 2017, 02:47:57 PM
So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on June 01, 2017, 05:31:35 PM
Those maps are really cool, as it happens, I'm actually trying to do the same thing, I was surprised by how similar the Vizcaya province districts are. However, I do wonder where they found the information to divide Santander or Oviedo by district - I've been looking and I can't find it anywhere. Same for Valladolid, and iirc Burgos too.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 01, 2017, 07:43:24 PM
So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on June 02, 2017, 07:08:46 AM
So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

Yeah, clearly. And things like fiscal Moix's designation (and resignation) do no help matters at all. I'm not sure Rajoy can recover from all the accusations of judicial interference or the photos of him going to declare as witness in the Audiencia Nacional.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 03, 2017, 06:23:35 AM
So does Sanchez' comeback mean that the government's days are numbered?

The return of Pedro Sánchez does not imply necessarily that Rajoy is done, but certainly adds a factor of instability to the already fragile foundations in which the government is standing. Pedro Sánchez is going to exercise a style of opposition more vocal than the managing commission that replaced him for several months. On the other hand, the PP is embattled by the never-ending corruption scandals and the parliamentary majority which allowed to pass the budget is very fragile. Rajoy's government made important economic concessions to Basque and Canarian regionalists in order to ensure some stability. Passing the budget this year will allow to extend it the following year thus the government could survive until the term is close to completion. Alternative parliamentary majorities are unworkable without Catalan separatists and their support would not be welcome in the PSOE. I think Rajoy can resist until 2018 or 2019, but he's going to deal with some turbulence.

I'd say Rajoy is probably safe until 2019. Let's look at the parties represented, from most pro Rajoy to least pro Rajoy.

PP: Well, they'll obviously support themselves XD

CC: CC needs PP to keep a stable government in the Canary Islands (the majority would now be CC+PP+ASG support) and PP is looking forwards to entering the Canarian government and making it a formal coalition. Similarly PP needs CC for stability in Spain (although 1 MP can only get you so far but still). That makes for some easy deals.

Cs: They are probably Rajoy's most loyal support, but they don't seem happy dealing with the nationalist Canarian/Basque Parties. They also are not that tolerant to corruption (although their tolerance is still too high IMO), so a very large scandal involving Rajoy directly could force a Cs+PSOE+Podemos coalition for a new snap election like it was discussed in Murcia.

PNV: They seem to have the highest price for reaching a deal of all the nationalist parties. However, they are a right wing party in the end, so dealing with PP is not that bad for them if they can get significant concessions like with the budget.

NC: They are to PSOE what Compromís is to Podemos. A small amount of independent MPs who contested the election with the large national party, and who are more moderate than the main party. However, NC is still a left wing party, and they are very wary because they know that whatever concessions they get will not be handled by them (NC is in opposition in the Canary Islands assembly) so CC might steal their achievements and they might demoralize their left wing voters, who would move to Podemos. Then again most predictions for 2019 I've seen have NC going up, not down, but IMO the Canary Islands are probably one of the harder communities to predict. No polling doesn't help.

In any case, they are the magical "MP number 176" for a bare majority, which does give them a lot of leverage for a party with 1 MP. However, they've said they will support any PSOE led no confidence vote, so they will not keep Rajoy in government unless it's necessary.

PDECat: If they dropped their independence position, I'd probably put them ahead of PNV. However, I'm putting them here because while they won't support Rajoy on important stuff, they can support him on more minor things in exchange for stuff for Catalonia, like with the recient port reform. It's also a much easier route than the one used for the budget, as PP+Cs+PDECat does have a majority (177 seats).

PSOE: Under Susana Díaz they'd be ahead of PDECat, and possibly also ahead of NC. However now that Sánchez is the secretary general they'll have a more open opposition to Rajoy, and won't reach deals with him unless it's completely necessary. Then again there's the possibility of Sánchez going back on his word with his move to the left being just a strategy to survive as leader of the party.

From here on these parties will probably never reach a deal with Rajoy


Compromís: Valencian nationalists, and thus they don't see PSOE as a complete competitor. Still, they contested the election with Podemos, not PSOE, which puts them quite a bit to the left. I can't see Compromís behaving like NC and dealing with Rajoy in exchange for stuff for Valencia. However of this group they are the likeliest to do so.

ERC: Putting them here because  their entire manifesto is "Independence!!!1111!!". If Rajoy decides to surrender on that for some reason, he'll get ERC.

Bildu: Same as ERC, but in Basque

Podemos: While PP+Podemos does have a majority (204 seats), they are the extremes and thus will never ever vote the same in anything.

So, the kingmakers in this case are NC (for passing important stuff), PDECat (For passing minor laws) and PNV (for stopping no confidence votes)

If Sánchez can somehow convince PNV that they will be better under a left wing PSOE government AND decides to give Catalonia a referendum, we'll get PM Pedro Sánchez via no confidence vote. Otherwise it's PM Rajoy until at least 2019 (I doubt he'll finish the 4 year term, most likely he'll call a snap election for late 2019 at the latest)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on June 04, 2017, 12:00:10 PM
Talk about conflicting polls...

Metroscopia/El Pais:
()
Link (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/06/03/actualidad/1496498991_154995.html)

NC Report/La Razón
36.0% PP
20.5% PSOE
20.2% UP
12.6% C's
Link (http://www.larazon.es/espana/encuesta-electoral-sin-efecto-sanchez-FH15305808)

Nonetheless, i made an average of the most recent polls by polling companies and the results are:

30.9% PP
22.2% PSOE
20.3% UP
15.1% C's


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Kamala on June 04, 2017, 12:27:08 PM
What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 04, 2017, 01:14:14 PM
What would be a good showing for each of the 4 major parties?

Too early to say, but IMO this are the best possible showings. Also adding 2019 regional possible pickups because it's only 2 years from no so why not:

PP: 36% or 155+ seats. Anything that allows just a PP+Cs government (without nationalists) would be pretty good though. A PP overall majority becomes a posibility if they reach at least 40%, but it's almost impossible as of now (though PP is the only party with even a chance of that. I'd give it a 5% chance).

In terms of 2019 pickups, basically all PSOE led governments are a possible pickup, though obviously some are harder than others. A good night in 2019 would probably have PP picking up Valencia, Balearic Islands, Aragon, Castille-La Mancha and Cantabria (all from PSOE except Cantabria, who would be picked up from left wing regionalists), and holding Madrid. The Canary Islands' electoral system is too ed up for PP to win, Andalucía and Extremadura are very strong PSOE strongholds and there's no way PP is picking up Catalonia or Navarra. Finally I think PSOE is safe in Asturias. Their main competitor might be Podemos actually.

PSOE

Improving on their most recient results (22.5%, 90 seats) would be pretty good for PSOE. Ideally 25% or more, or reaching 100 seats would be a very good night for them. Reaching Rubalcaba 2011 levels (29%, 110 seats) is their ceiling IMO, and that's also very unlikely.

As for regions in 2019 they'll be playing defense as they had a very good night back then. So a good night will probably have PSOE holding all governors (ie no net change). Their only reasonable pickup seems Madrid. However one thing to keep in mind is that all PSOE governors but one (Francina Armengol, Balearic Islands) were anti-Sánchez in the primary and while Sánchez has said he won't fire anyone, that might still be an issue.

UP

Becoming the 2nd largest party (above PSOE) for good would be a good showing. A very good one might be 100+ seats or 26%+ of the vote.

In regional terms, Aragon (Echenique is very well known) and Asturias seem their best chances at a pickup. Maybe Madrid as well if Errejón gets momentum (the PSOE leader there is also very popular)

Cs

17% of the vote or 60+ seats would be a really good showing.

In regional terms there's no place where Cs might be able to form a government. Catalonia is their best chance at a regional pickup (they are the official opposition there), but even that's unlikely unless unionists become stronger and a Cs+PP+PSC government becomes possible


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 05, 2017, 07:42:12 AM
GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on June 05, 2017, 09:09:54 AM
GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 05, 2017, 09:41:10 AM
GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on June 06, 2017, 02:55:41 PM
GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5

Seems about right. Although considering the implications of Sanchez's election and Operación Lezo and the incoming  visit of Rajoy to the Audiencia Nacional and the optics of it, we need to look at the trend.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 09, 2017, 06:40:31 AM
Catalan premier Puigdemont has anounced the date and question of their referendum. It will take place on the 1st of October and the question will be: "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state in the form of a republic?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/06/09/inenglish/1496995696_161601.html

Seems like an odd choice in the 2nd part (the form of Republic). I thought that was implied? Did anyone expect Catalonia to become independent but keep the monarchy?

My question now is if it will end like the 2014 one or if some unionists will go out and vote even if it's meaningless. Supposedly it's a binding referendum, but most likely it won't happen. I bet it will be ruled unconstitutional before tomorrow.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 12, 2017, 05:25:37 AM
Cadena SER/My word poll:

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2017/06/11/politica/1497169995_755970.html

PP: 28.6%
PSOE: 24.8%
UP: 18.9%
Cs: 15.7%

The most interesting question IMO is this one though:

¿Who would make the best prime minister?

Pedro Sánchez: 31.1%
Albert Rivera: 28.5%
Pablo Iglesias: 24.8%
Mariano Rajoy: 15.6%

I wonder how is Pedro Sánchez so high! I get Rivera since he does have very high approval ratings, but Sanchez and Iglesias seem too high and Rajoy seems too low. Half of PP voters preferring Rivera over Rajoy! And I thought most internal critics of Rajoy came from his right (like former PM Aznar), not from his left.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 13, 2017, 03:45:05 PM
And day 1 (of 2 apparently) of Iglesias' no confidence vote is over. Tomorrow apparently the 4 main parties will talk (PP, PSOE, Podemos and allies and Cs), with today only seeing Rajoy (incumbent PM), Iglesias (PM alternative) and Irene Montero (Speaker of the group who presented the no confidence vote), as well as the speakers from the regionalist parties.

As for who won, nobody knows. Everyone will defend his party of course, and almost no one will watch the 8 hours or so that the full debate lasted (plus tomorrow's interventions).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 14, 2017, 07:05:06 AM
Podemos passed the test and got a good mark. Irene Montero, who is the UP parliamentary spokeswoman, was particularly good in her role whipping the government and the PP for their intolerable corruption. Montero revealed herself as a good parliamentarian and has the makings of a leader. To the surprise of many, Mariano Rajoy replied personally the long opening statement made by Montero. Later Pablo Iglesias came to stage playing a more "institutional" role as the alternative candidate and had a long dialectical exchange with Mariano Rajoy. Both Rajoy and Iglesias were correct. The polarization PP-Podemos is mutually beneficial for them.

Today Albert Rivera and the new PSOE spokesman José Luis Ábalos came to stage. Acrimonious exchange between Rivera and Iglesias. More politeness between Ábalos and Iglesias. In absence of Pedro Sánchez (he resigned as MP when the Rajoy's investiture took place) Ábalos can be a good spokesman for the PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 14, 2017, 09:28:15 AM
Results of the no confidence vote. Requires 176 votes in favour (an overall majority)

Yea (82): Podemos, Compromís, ERC, Bildu

Nay (170): PP, Cs, CC

Abstaining (98): PSOE, NC, PDECat, PNV

No big surprises tbh. I do wonder slightly about some of the small regional parties but for the most part there were no big surprises.

Also, watching CC's very harsh intervention a deal between Podemos and CC is out of the window now (PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+Bildu+CC).

In other words the only 2 viable routes for a successful no confidence vote are:
PSOE+Cs+UP
PSOE+UP+PNV+ERC+PDECat.

Then again neither route is particularly likely.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on June 14, 2017, 09:48:54 AM
Will ERC or PDECat even vote beside the PSOE after Sanchéz said he's also against the referendum? And i don't see PNV vote a alongside Podemos on anything actually.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 14, 2017, 01:32:39 PM
Alternative majorities are unworkable with the current composition of parliament.

Despite its foregone conclusion, I guess the motion served its purpose. Actually it worked as a general policy debate. Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero performed better than I expected. Also, despite his skills as parliamentarian, Mariano Rajoy can't reply anything against the overwhelming evidence. His party is officially a "criminal organization". Thus Mariano Rajoy bypassed the question, invoking the macroeconomic performance of his government and warning about the potentially disastrous effects of having Pablo Iglesias in government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 17, 2017, 09:20:05 AM
Simple Lógica poll

http://electomania.es/20170616simplelogica/

PP: 29.9%
PSOE: 25.3%
UP: 18.6%
Cs: 16.8%
Others: 9.4%

Approval ratings

Mariano Rajoy: 28,5%
Pedro Sánchez 29%
Pablo Iglesias 20,5%
Albert Rivera 40%
Alberto Garzón 29,7%

Spanish politicians for some reason always have terrible approval ratings. When was the last time the Spanish PM had a positive approval rating? (Ie either at least a 5/10 or positive net approval). I guess Zapatero early in his term? (2006 or so, I found a 2007 poll which put him at only -3 net approval)

Also, the "Sánchez effect" is confirmed. And how long will it last though? Considering he has moderated himself after winning, I can't see it being permanent. He wants to push for a PSOE+Cs+UP deal, which is impossible. Most people are saying that we've basically returned to early 2016 politically except this time with a government.

I keep hearing that Rajoy will not pass a budget for 2018, instead just using 2017's budget, and probably call a snap election in late 2018/early 2019. I hope it's 2018. 2019 has way too many elections already: there's the regional ones, the EU parliament one and assuming they don't call snap elections, the Andalusian and Catalan ones (this last one is almost certain to be a snap election next year though, because of the pruces)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 23, 2017, 05:05:44 PM
Ok, so today the New York Times published an editorial piece about Catalonia, encouraging the government to do a legal referendum.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/opinion/catalonias-challenge-to-spain.html?ref=opinion&referer=http://www.elperiodico.com/es/

I guess the prucés is becoming kinda internationalized after all? I mean, an editorial is not much, but the NYT is probably one of the most respected newspapers worldwide. Then again no countries support the Catalan government.

My prediction for the "referendum" is a repeat of 2014, ie low turnout and 90% yes. Maybe slightly better (say, 50% turnout and 70% yes votes)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 24, 2017, 05:50:40 PM
The editorial encourages to find a political solution., which includes a legal referendum. NYT does not support the independence of Catalonia.

Quote
A more capable central government could head off independence fervor by giving the region a better economic return. Catalonia contributes nearly a fifth of Spain’s gross domestic product, yet the region receives just 9.5 percent of Spain’s national budget. Negotiating in good faith with Catalan leaders to find a political solution, rather than relying on the judiciary’s restrictive interpretation of the Constitution to punish Catalan efforts for greater autonomy, would also help.

The best outcome for Spain would be to permit the referendum, and for Catalan voters to reject independence — as voters in Quebec and Scotland have done. Otherwise, Madrid’s intransigence will only inflame Catalan frustrations.

I concur that would be one of the best possible outcomes for this terrible mess.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Helsinkian on July 04, 2017, 09:32:19 PM
Quote from: Euronews
Catalonia has vowed to declare independence from Spain within 48 hours if a majority of voters back the move in an October referendum.

Pro secessionist parties have proposed a draft bill which will ask if locals want the wealthy region to be an independent nation. If they say no, fresh elections will be called.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on July 05, 2017, 01:15:19 AM
Quote from: Euronews
Catalonia has vowed to declare independence from Spain within 48 hours if a majority of voters back the move in an October referendum.

Pro secessionist parties have proposed a draft bill which will ask if locals want the wealthy region to be an independent nation. If they say no, fresh elections will be called.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170704/423891438758/cospedal-fuerzas-armadas-soberania-espana.html

The Spanish Defense minister says as much, but its empty rhetoric. More likely is that you have the Guarda Civil walk in to the Mossos (the Catalan local police) and take over the law institutions. Also the organisers of the referendum will be tried like Artur Mas was.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 05, 2017, 06:21:25 AM
Quote from: Euronews
Catalonia has vowed to declare independence from Spain within 48 hours if a majority of voters back the move in an October referendum.

Pro secessionist parties have proposed a draft bill which will ask if locals want the wealthy region to be an independent nation. If they say no, fresh elections will be called.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

If a Self-governing Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the
Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest
of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of the  Community and failed to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.

Anyways, I think Rajoy won't do anything until the day they officially declare independence. The so-called referendum will happen, but it will be like the 2014 one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 05, 2017, 06:59:20 AM
Also, an interesting poll about what should be done about Catalonia according to the rest of Spain:

If the Spanish Government forbids the referendum but the Catalan government does one regardless, should Catalonia's autonomy be suspended? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 40-48-12

PP voters: 56-30-14
PSOE voters: 44-46-11
UP voters: 24-64-12
Cs voters:  57-32-10

18-25 year olds: 36-58-6
26-35 year olds: 42-51-7
36-45 year olds: 40-52-8
46-55 year olds: 34-55-11
56-65 year olds: 41-32-28
66-75 year olds: 50-34-16

Interestingly the numbers are a lot lower in Catalonia, with only 15% of Catalans supporting the suspension of their autonomy if necessary, and 80% rejecting it.

Should the Spanish government allow the referendum to happen? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 39-55-7

PP voters: 17-79
PSOE voters: 35-61
UP voters: 61-33
Cs voters: 13-84

Poll about whether a referendum should happen:

Options:
-I don't support any kind of referendum
-I support a referendum only if all Spaniards vote
-I support a referendum even if only people in Catalonia can vote

Overall: 28-47-22
Catalonia: 14-22-61
Rest of Spain: 31-52-15

PP voters: 46-48-? (very small)
PSOE voters: 30-47-20
UP voters: 8-49-41
Cs voters: 41-52-7

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-07-05/encuesta-dym-40-espanoles-suspension-autonomia-cataluna-si-hay-referendum_1409218/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 05, 2017, 02:01:48 PM
Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 05, 2017, 04:03:45 PM
Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?

Yeah, Catalonia is one of the recurring themes in our elections, alongside Venezuela and a couple others.

For all what's worth if you want news about the real issues: the government has started to draft the 2018 budget. The spending cap has been marginally increased, but the allowed budget deficits are smaller (so town halls must have a balanced budget, communities are allowed up to 0.3% deficit and the central government 0.6%).

It will be voted by the Congress in less than a week, but PSOE will vote against it, unlike last time (when they voted in favour of the 2017 spending cap but against the full 2017 budget).

It is expected to pass with the same extremely narrow majority as 2017's full budget though (so: PP+Cs+PNV Basque nationalists+CC Canarian Nationalists+NCa Canarian nationalists). NC might abstain making it a 175-174 vote though, but either way it doesn't change the result.

As you can see, even here you need nationalism, you can't have Spanish politics without having to deal with them. And actually, fun fact: Most nationalist parties are at their lowest point in their history. Let's go 1 by 1:

Catalonia

PDECat (formerly CiU) is in a terrible shape due to the independence stuff backfiring. They seem to have lost the lead in Catalan nationalism, being surpassed by ERC. They used to have twice as many MPs, and regional polls put them as low as 6th! (even behind PP, which never got a foothold in Catalonia)

ERC is on the best moment however, with only the 2004 period coming close (when they had 8 MPs, only one less than now).

The total amount of Catalan nationalism seems to be stagnant though, with ERC+CiU/PDECat not changing much. What has changed is probably the more autonomy/independence ratio (2004 was not an exception to more autonomy being favoured as ERC was less pro independence then)

Basque country

PNV is on an ok moment. At the national level they aren't doing that well, with only 5 MPs, but they haven't gone off a cliff like PDECat. In Basque elections they are doing remarkably well though. They even gained a seat when they were initially expected to lose some!

Basque independentism is doing quite badly though. Basque independentism is at its lowest point in decades. However Bildu itself is doing ok at the national level (2 MPs is half of what they had in 2011, but still more or less what Batasuna used to get), and at the Basque level they are also not too bad (although they did lose a couple seats)

Overall similar to Catalonia, it's less of a shift in nationalism itself and more of a shift in the autonomy/independence ratio, this time towards the former, but with a smaller shift.

Canary Islands

Here there is almost no desire for independence to begin with. However, Canarian nationalism is in a reverse situation compared to Basque one. Here the amount of people who identify as Canarian is more or less stagnant, but the nationalist parties are falling.

CC has been slowly but surely declining since their peak in 2000. At the national level they used to have 4 MPs, now they have 1. I personally think Oramas is safe, but her party is definitely not doing well.

The situation at the Canarian level is just as bad. The party has basically disappeared in Gran Canaria, the 2nd most populated island (interestingly, the Lt. Governor is from there, so he might actually lose his seat in the next regional election!), and I don't see them regaining a footbase there any time soon.

What's keeping them afloat is mostly the electoral system, where the minor islands (where they perform well) have 50% of the seats with only 17% of the population. In fact, they are the largest party in terms of seats in the Canarian parliament, but they came in third in the election, with only 18.2%! (compared to PP's 18.7% and PSOE's 19.9%). I'm pretty sure Fernando Clavijo is the governor in Spain with the least support for his party, maybe in Spain's history!

The NC nationalists are doing better, but still not great. Against most polls (which admittedly were off), Pedro Quevedo held his seat (contested alongside PSOE) and has been decisive passing the budget, and has received several concessions for the islands (like for example an increase on the flight subsidies between islands, basically making all flights 50% off from now on). However, NC does not contest elections alone so they are dependent on PSOE doing well.

At the Canarian level they are well off, but probably slightly underwhelming, they barely increased in votes in 2015. They do control the Gran Canaria island council, but that's actually telling of their main problem. They are basically seen as the Gran Canaria party (not quite to the exent of say, the "La Gomera's Socialist Group", but still). The only other island where they got MPs was Lanzarote, and they didn't even break 5% in the most populated island (Tenerife), and only got over 7% in Lanzarote and GC. I still see them going up though, but there's only so many votes you can get with only Gran Canaria. They probably have a ceiling of 16% or so in their current shape.

Other nationalists

Galician nationalism is in a bad shape. The BNG failed to get a seat in 2015 for the first time in a long time, and lost some seats in the regional election. Somehow PP is seen as Galician nationalist there, so they can only get some nationalists on the left.

Navarra is very weird IMO so I won't get into their regional level. At their national level it's worth noting that Geroa Bai failed to get a seat, just like BNG in Galicia.

Valencian nationalism on the contrary is prettty well off. At the national level they have 4 seats, more than UV ever got in the 80s or 90s. They did contest the election alongside Podemos though. At the regional level they are also very well off, and I can actually see a 25% chance or so of them getting the governorship for the first time ever!

Balearic nationalism is also well off. I don't think Mes has any MPs in Congress, but Balearic nationalism has roughly twice as many seats as it used to get. There also seems to be a right wing nationalist party, which will help Balearic nationalists.

I guess these 2 are helped by the rise in prominence of Catalan nationalism? Then again I don't think the "Paisos Catalans" thing is popular in either Valencia or the Balearic Islands.

Andalucia used to have nationalist parties, but they are dead and buried nowadays. Asturias has Foro Asturias, but they are less of a nationalist party and more of a glorified PP split.

 And Cantabria has the PRC (Gov. Revilla's party) but it seems like the kind of party that will die once Revilla retires (again, just like Foro Asturias, which is struggling to remain relevant now that its leader, Álvarez Cascos, has retired from politics)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 05, 2017, 05:26:39 PM
Today, the Constitutional Court has struck down Puigdemont plan to finance the referendum. Puigdemont wanted to put in the budget the costs of the referendum but the Court said that it's illegal.

Did the same happened in 2014? I don't recall.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on July 05, 2017, 05:29:27 PM
Quote from: Euronews
Catalonia has vowed to declare independence from Spain within 48 hours if a majority of voters back the move in an October referendum.

Pro secessionist parties have proposed a draft bill which will ask if locals want the wealthy region to be an independent nation. If they say no, fresh elections will be called.
http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

(...)

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.


Are there any majority Catalan units in the army?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on July 05, 2017, 06:22:51 PM
it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 05, 2017, 07:31:07 PM
it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on July 06, 2017, 04:32:44 AM
Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on July 06, 2017, 08:28:26 AM
it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.

spanish right obsession with venezuela is really sad.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on July 06, 2017, 08:30:57 AM
Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

spanish gov probably know those polling are fake and that vast majority of catalans are for independence, that's why they doesn't approve referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 06, 2017, 09:55:48 AM
Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

Iirc other than the urban-rural split there's also an age split, with younger voters being more favourable to independence than old voters. That is often used by the hard right as an argument to say that  the Catalan government is "brainwashing" kids.

I do not think there's a meaningful split along the lines of income.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 11, 2017, 10:30:54 AM
Ok, the debt ceiling will be approved this afternoon. The votes will be exactly the same as for the 2017 budget (so, PP+Cs+PNV+CC+NCa), with the minor difference that NCa will abstain instead of voting in favour, turning it into a razor thin 175-174 vote (as opposed to the budget's 176-174)

It is also expected that the 2018 budget will be passed in a similar fashion.

What this means is that basically, Rajoy will be safe for at least another year. He might call an early election in late 2018 but I don't think that is likely even if he were unable to pass a budget for 2019 (he could just recycle the 2018 budget). A budget not being passed has been used in the past as the excuse for an early election though (so the 1996 election was called a year early after González was unable to pass a budget for the year) so who knows.

I do think a 2019 election is a lot more likely though, maybe even one in 2020, as far late as the law allows. 2019's only disadvantage is that there will be election fatigue with the european and regional elections that same year, but low turnout probably benefits PP anyways so he might go for it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 14, 2017, 08:26:29 AM
OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 14, 2017, 11:30:20 AM
OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html

The three ministers fired by premier Puigdemont (Neus Munté, Jordi Jané and Meritxell Ruiz) are not featherweights. They have been removed due to pressure from vice-premier Oriol Junqueras (ERC). I'd say it's the Ouigdemont's party (PDECat, formerly CDC) the one in crisis mode.

In case of a snap election, ERC and PDECat will likely run separately. The Republican Left of Catalonia is expected to win, while the PDECat might crash. It wouldn't be strange a post-election agreement between ERC and Catalunya en Comú. The latter is the merger of Barcelona en Comú (Ada Colau's party), the Catalan branch of Podemos, ICV and EUiA (IU). The comuns ("commons") have been hardly pressured to support the referendum by separatist parties and organizations. Their middle-gound stance has not been well received by the pro-ondependence movement. On the other hand, the Comuns are far more comfortable in the middle ground than it was the PSC.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 24, 2017, 08:13:31 AM
2 new polls about Catalan independence have been released. They probably have a pro-independence bias, particularly the ARA poll, but still seems better than nothing:

CEO poll:


¿Should Catalonia become an independent state? (all voting age people)


Yes: 41.1%
No: 49.4%

Note that this is the worst result for "yes" since 2012 or so.

Catalonia should be...

An independent state: 34.7%
An autonomous community of Spain: 30.5%
An state inside a federal Spain: 21.7%
A region of Spain: 5.3%

Again worst result for independence since 2012.

Are you in favour of a referendum?

Yes, even if it's unilateral: 48%
Yes, but only if it's through a deal with the Spanish government: 23.4%
No, never: 22.6%

Estimated results of the 1st of October unilateral referendum

Yes: 62.4%
No: 37.6%

Turnout: 67.5%

Note that while independence support is going down, this would actually be a terrible result for unionists since it has both a supermajority for independence and a relatively high turnout, giving the Catalan government quite a lot of legitimacy!

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=6288&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica.+2a+onada+2017

ARA poll

Results

()

Estimated turnout:

()

Turnout by party:

()

Turnout by possition on independence

()

Voting intentions on the unilateral referendum by party

()

Neutral numbers for unionists here (both unionism and independentism go down in support for "don't know"), but again, if the referendum does happen in the end the numbers look really bad.

And the alternatives aren't much better. The government could try to negotiate with Puigdemont and make a legal referendum, but that's probably not going to happen and even if it did it would be very risky. Alternatively Rajoy could just activate article 155 and send the Guardia Civil to stop the referendum but creating martyrs would only increase support for independence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FrancoAgo on July 24, 2017, 02:26:49 PM
afaik in catalunya there are very few men of guardia civil, they would be move guardia civil from neighbour comunitad or use the army, and if the mozos de escuadra obbey to the catalunya government we have a civil war


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 17, 2017, 10:51:31 AM
There has been a massive roadkill (is that the English term?) in one of Barcelona's most important streets. Not much is known but hopefully everything is alright. Several people are injured.

Here's a live news thing by El Periódico

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20170817/una-furgoneta-arrolla-a-varias-personas-en-la-rambla-de-barcelona-6228813

Edit 1: Terrorist attack confirmed. 20-25 injured, possibly 1 dead. Spanish passport found.

Edit 2: The terrorist(s) van driver are locked in a Turkish restaurant near La Boqueria. He has hostages.

Edit 3: The terrorists have split. One has gone missing the 2nd has hostages on that restaurant. There has been a shooting. 2 dead.

Edit 4: Live updates by The Guardian in English https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/aug/17/barcelona-attack-van-driven-into-crowd-in-las-ramblas-district

Edit 5: The area is completely locked down and evacuated with several metro stations closed. Also all major party leaders and politicians have condemned the attack.

Edit 6: 3 people dead now. The terrorist who escaped apparently escaped in a second van.

Edit 7: "up to" 6 dead, Spanish ID with an Arabic name on it found

Edit 8: 13 dead. The shooting I mentioned prior was a rumour and it didn't happen in the end.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on August 17, 2017, 03:17:20 PM
You would not use the term roadkill. In English that world refer to dead animals struck by autos.

And this is all very terrible :(


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on August 18, 2017, 12:17:17 PM
14 died, more than 100 injured. why spain?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 27, 2017, 10:19:38 AM
Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?

()

()

Anyways, IMO at least 2 good things happened:

  • Turnout was quite high, with half a million people attending the prostests. That's quite high. For reference last year's pro-independence marches attracted 625 000 people.
  • It was attended by everyone in the political spectrum. The king was there (first time the king of Spain attends a public protest). The main political leaders (Rajoy, Rivera, Sánchez, Iglesias and the leaders of the regionalist parties) were there. All of Rajoy's cabinet was there. All 17 autonomous community governors were there.
     The march was boycotted by no one, not even CUP! (though they did threaten to do so because the king was there, but backtracked)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on August 27, 2017, 11:30:14 AM
Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?

Its meaningless to march against terrorism since its something everybody are against and the protest has zero impact on the terrorists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 29, 2017, 10:48:44 AM
Catalonia's government has released some crucial details about their "transition law" that would be activated if yes wins in their referendum.

It will be passed some time before the 1st of October.

Catalonia's superior justice court will become the Supreme Court. The president will be elected by a mixed commision with 5 members elected by the government and 4 by lower judges. The attorney general will be elected by parliament with an absolute majority. Judges dependent on Catalonia will remain on their jobs, but those that are from Spanish courts will be fired

The transition law will give amnesty to those prosecuted because of the independence process, including people like former governor Artur Mas, former deputy governor Joana Ortega, former speaker of the Generalitat and former leader of CDC in Congress Francesc Homs and former secretary of education Irene Rigau, all condemned because of their involvement in the 2014 illegal consultation

Spain's buildings in Catalonia will be expropiated. All Spanish civil servants will become Catalan civil servants.

It assumes that Catalonia will remain in the EU. All EU laws will automatically become Catalan laws, even after independence.

Having the Catalan nationality will not be incompatible with the Spanish one.

Catalonia won't pay its part of the Spanish debt unless there's a negotiation with Spain.

After 6 months there will be new elections to a constituent assembly to design a new constitution for Catalonia.

The official languages would be kept: Spanish, Catalan and Aranese

All powers of Spain over Catalonia would vanish

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://tinyurl.com/y99vkf9z



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on August 29, 2017, 02:55:45 PM

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://cronicaglobal.elespanol.com/uploads/s1/72/68/24/Proposici%C3%B3%20de%20llei%20de%20transitorietat%20jur%C3%ADdica%20i%20fundacional%20de%20la%20rep%C3%BAblica%20(1).pdf


The link is too big.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 29, 2017, 04:53:41 PM

Ok, fixed it by taking it through tinyurl


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 04, 2017, 11:13:47 AM
Leader of Cs, Albert Rivera has presented his party's proposal for term limits. PP has already anounced that they will vote against it so they are looking forward to passing it with PSOE and Podemos support.

There are doubts about its constitutionality though. Cs argues that it can be passed as a standard law, just by reforming the Government Law, but PP thinks that a constitutional reform is needed.

In any case, if Rajoy called for a snap election in 2019 or before he would not be affected by it. Also interestingly if Rajoy stepped down and someone else became PM for 4 years Rajoy would be eligible again after those 4 years. So it's not an absolute term limit.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/09/04/59ad4898468aeb3b7d8b469d.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 05, 2017, 05:59:07 AM
Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"
()
"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"
()

source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 06, 2017, 09:31:29 AM
Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"
()
"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"
()

source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Then again this is all assuming the referendum happens, which is not guaranteed. Rajoy has promised that there won't be any referendum, not even one like the 2014 one. Not sure how things will go in the end though. Unless "no" miraculously wins in the referendum or Puigdemont chickens out and dissolves the regional assembly soon, Catalonia's autonomy will be eventually suspended. We are heading towards a train crash. It's probably a matter of when, not if.


Anyways, today the pro-independence side had planned to pass their referendum law. The debate has been a complete sh**tshow and the regional assembly's rules have been bent quite a bit. Of course the unionist side has been opposed to all of this.

There have been several reactions. PM Rajoy has asked the Constitutional Court to basically declare void anything passed by the Catalan parliament today. Also the Catalan fiscal has said they will prosecute those members of the Catalan parliament's table (the ones who set the schedule for the day) who passed the measure to include the referendum law in the schedule of the day.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 06, 2017, 11:25:06 AM
Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"
()
"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"
()

source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Well that is what surprised me about the expected turnout too. The "No" voters still engaged in the last regional election even though it was presented as the Nationalist list vs the Unionist parties, and Ciudadanos seemed to be the main benefactors of this. Plus previous polls for this referendum had turnout at much higher levels

I understand the idea of de-legitimising the referendum but what causes the No voters to suddenly change strategy and boycott, considering some poll showed them winning?



Quote
Then again this is all assuming the referendum happens, which is not guaranteed. Rajoy has promised that there won't be any referendum, not even one like the 2014 one. Not sure how things will go in the end though. Unless "no" miraculously wins in the referendum or Puigdemont chickens out and dissolves the regional assembly soon, Catalonia's autonomy will be eventually suspended. We are heading towards a train crash. It's probably a matter of when, not if.

The question is who the train crash will benefit the most? Mariano Rajoy or Carles Puigdemont? Both really :D .


Quote
Anyways, today the pro-independence side had planned to pass their referendum law. The debate has been a complete sh**tshow and the regional assembly's rules have been bent quite a bit. Of course the unionist side has been opposed to all of this.

What about Podem/CSQEP/whatever. Did they abstain?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 06, 2017, 01:57:42 PM
Well, I guess most unionists don't want to legitimize the referendum. But it's worth noting that turnout is higher than in the 2014 one precisely because of some unionists going out to vote (mostly from Podemos). 2014 saw 90% yes but 35% turnout. Because of higher unionist turnout that 90% yes will go down to 70%.

However I don't think unionists want to risk it unless the referendum is 100% legal. And while overall polls do show unionists often winning it's usually close, if a true 100% legal referendum happened I could see another surprise like Brexit or Trump happening.

Keep in mind that if you take Podemos out unionists lose the 2015 election. PP+PSC+Cs get 39.1%, JxSí+CUP get 47.8%.

As for who will benefit, I don't think Puigdemont will benefit. On the Catalan side the real beneficiary will actually be ERC leader Oriol Junqueras. ERC is expected to win any regional election in a landslide while PDECat is expected to fall. PP, PSC and Cs are probably going to fall, most Catalans are against their autonomy being taken away. Podemos might rise and in fact it's already rising.

On the Spanish side, Rajoy might win some support but I'm not totally convinced, Rivera is also a very staunch unionist.

Sánchez is almost completely against it but he has made some blunders reciently about his federal state, saying: "All nations are in Spain", then saying only Galicia, Catalonia, Basque Country and Spain are nations, his endorsed candidate in Madrid saying that Madrid is a nation and with many regional leaders still opposed to him, his ideas and his leadership. On the other hand his proposal for a commision to reform the autonomies and solve the Catalan issue has been accepted by all parties, from PP to Podemos. Only ERC has said they won't participate.

Iglesias is the only one in favour of the referendum.

My guess is that Podemos and PSOE go down and Cs and PP go up again.

Finally, as for how the votes went, keep in mind that there's a final vote about the referendum that hasn't still happened. The other 2 were to bend the rules to allow the debate of the law to happen.

The first passed 72 in favour, 60 against, 3 abstaining

On the second almost all unionists refused to vote in protest to the chaos that was the voting. It passed 69 in favour, 3 against and 0 abstaining.

So it seems that Podemos split, with 3 MPs abstaining and the other 8 voting against alongside PP, Cs and PSC.

Also, the European People's Party group in the EU parliament has backed PP. Not exactly unexpected but whatever. I will say that this is where Unió's MEPs used to sit though. https://twitter.com/EPP/status/905489350372282368

And in my opinion if ALDE (where PDECat's MEPs sit) backs the unionists as well it's over. They won't get any EU support. Not like the EU was ever expected to side with Catalonia but still.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 06, 2017, 03:11:07 PM
2 final news for the day:

First of all, the referendum law has been passed. PP, Cs and PSC's MPs refused to vote and just left the chamber (PP's MPs also left Spanish and Catalan flags behind).

The official tally was:

Yes: 72 (JxSí, CUP)
No: 0
Abstaining 11 (Podemos)

Also, and this was kind of unexpected to me, Catalan opposition leader Ines Arrimadas (Cs) has said that she will present a no confidence vote against governor Puigdemont. Not like it has a chance of passing but still. It would need either CUP support (lol) or at least 5 JxSí defectors (almost certainly from PDECat).

She says her objective is to force new regional elections.

http://www.antena3.com/noticias/espana/arrimadas-anuncia-mocion-censura-puigdemont_2017090659b04f8f0cf27a5b1bd80efd.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 06, 2017, 04:12:08 PM
Thanks for the extensive answer. About the EU support for Catalan independence, I got a feeling from the EU bureaucrats in the Committee of Regions (excluding some of the Spanish ones) that Romeva had lobbied hard enough to ensure that while Catalonia would have to re-apply should it ever gain independence (and therefore be blocked by Spain, and to a lesser extent France), the actual Catalan citizens would retain their European citizen rights and still legally be considered Spanish. Its a complicated issue but then that's why you need a comprehensive agreement in place first to vote on...

Also, bit strange that C's and the PDEC sit in the same group in the EP...Our Christian Democrats still won't accept N-VA in the EPP despite having a decent working relationship. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 09, 2017, 09:04:00 AM
In a shocking /s turn of events, the Constitutional Court has struck down the Catalan referendum. Also reminded mayors that they should not take part in it.

The Catalan government sent a letter asking all of Catalonia's mayors (all 946 of them) to say if they'll lend municipal spaces for the referendum.

Thus far more than 2/3 of all mayors (628) have said they'll support the referendum and lend municipal spaces while only 12 have spoken against it. However those 12 mayors are mayors of large municipalities while the ones who pledge support are mostly from small towns, with a few exceptions.

So in terms of population the unionists are actually winning, with 44% of mayors by population rejecting the referendum and 41.6% in favour. 290 mayors comprising the reminder of Catalonia's poulation have not answered.

The 12 town halls that said no include: Tarragona city, Lleida city, Barcelona city (though mayor Colau was somewhat ambiguous but most include her on the "no" side), L'Hospitalet and Cornellá.

On the yes side the most relevant ones seem to be Girona city and Badalona.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 10, 2017, 01:00:45 PM
It's been a while since I last posted a poll, so here are 2 new national ones and 2 regional ones (one for Catalonia, another for the Canary Islands):

ABC-GAD3 poll

PP: 31.9% (131)
PSOE: 23.9% (94)
UP: 18.4% (57)
Cs: 15.8% (41)

ERC: 14
PDECat: 4
PNV: 6
Bildu: 2
CC: 1

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.8
Pedro Sánchez: 3.8
Pablo Iglesias: 3.3
Albert Rivera: 4.3

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-encuesta-gad3-para-abc-bloque-pp-y-ciudadanos-aumenta-21-escanos-ventaja-sobre-psoe-y-podemos-201709100257_noticia.html

El Mundo-Sigma Dos

PP: 30.8%
PSOE: 26.4%
UP: 19.5%
Cs: 12.7%

ERC: 2.3%
PNV: 1.2%
PDECat: 1.3%

El Español-Sociométrica, Catalonia's parliament (135 seats, 68 for a majority)

()

Hamalgama and Ágora Integral poll for La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife, Canary Islands parliament (60 seats, 31 for a majority)

PSOE: 23.8% (18/19)
CC: 17.3% (15/16)
PP: 20.2% (11)
Podemos: 14.2% (6)
NC: 9.8% (4)
ASG: 0.6% (3)
Cs: 7.0% (2)

Yes, CC is 3rd in the popular vote but 2nd in terms of seats.

http://www.laopinion.es/canarias/2017/09/10/psoe-dispara-islas-suma-pacto/807517.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 20, 2017, 09:08:44 AM
Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 20, 2017, 09:49:16 AM
Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on September 20, 2017, 10:09:08 AM
Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 20, 2017, 10:20:09 AM
Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

It seems to me like the ultimate No True Scotsman dilemma - on both sides. You say the polls are showing the  nationalists down but their score combined with CUP is stable and as tack50 said the main loser in PDECat to ERC. If Junqueres backs down now he will see support fade away to the CUP as the last resort of the seperatist. And that's something not many in the Catalan political and economic upper to middle classes want.

Meanwhile in Madrid it's also a question of who is willing to do the most to keep Spain together. Sanchez and Iglesias will be marginalised or smeared in all this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on September 20, 2017, 04:03:02 PM
Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on September 20, 2017, 04:04:48 PM
Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.
From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

I think, cynically, because it will play to the victimism of the Catalan völkisch cause and lend them further support as "underdogs" in the upcoming regional elections. Also I feel like the acceleration of events has to do with the bad showing in the polls recently. Indeed, just today a poll was released showing that ERC+PDECAT+CUP lacked a majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 21, 2017, 02:40:08 AM
Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.

Can you provide a source about the nature of the arrests, because Vanguardia initially said it was about using public funds to fund an illegal referendum, hence the ballot burning. Here's one from El Pais saying the same :

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/20/catalunya/1505885372_273143.html

Also, why was the Guardía Civil involved and not the Mossos?  Are fiscal matters not a competence of theirs?  I thought the GC was only involved in border control in Catalunya.

Genuine questions not meant in harm.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on September 22, 2017, 06:07:53 AM
who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on September 22, 2017, 07:09:34 AM
who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

You are right in some respects regarding the hypocrisy of self-determination.
The logic of most of the "Western" recognitions you mention was that the incumbent was using excessive and disproportionate repression against those nations, which usually meant a UN-led mission that first required independence of the substate actor.

The Spanish state argues that Catalonia already has self-determination. And Spain does not recognise Kosovo either. So I'm not sure that line of argumentation gets you anywhere with the Spanish state.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on September 22, 2017, 07:57:09 AM
who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

Why is this is specifically a western hypocrisy? Morocco recognises the state of Palestine, but mentione Western Sahara...

Beyond that, Coloniac is pretty much spot on - and there is always the fact that, every country has its own interests, and ideological biases, in those sorts of questions.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 26, 2017, 03:28:49 PM
The Spanish government has delayed the 2018 budget. That means they won't be able to pass it on time, instead having to pass it late like they did for last year. The government expects to pass it some time in January.

The reason? They have been unable to reach an agreement with the Basque PNV. The reason is probably Catalonia at least partially, PNV has been a big defender of a referendum agreed between the Spanish and Catalan governments. They also threatened the government with exactly this last week. According to them because of the dire situation in Catalonia it's no time to begin budget negotiations.

I do think PNV will bulge after October though. I would expect budget negotiations to start in late October with the budget being passed late in January or December (the budget has to start being drafted at least 3 months before January 1st in order not to be a late budget I think).

An early election in 2018 is a possibility, particularly if Rajoy thinks PP will be benefited (a la May 2017). I think it's unlikely though, their 2016 result was probably as good as it can get under the current 4 party system.

http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3145260/0/gobierno-prorroga-presupuestos-generales-2018/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 01, 2017, 05:58:43 AM
D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mvd10 on October 01, 2017, 06:25:59 AM
D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

What more do they want Rajoy to do? They aren't actually advocating for killing people right?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on October 01, 2017, 06:32:51 AM
D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.
We can argue the police response. In my opinion, i would had left them vote but, honestly, i was expecting clashes with the police. What i was not expecting, was people using their kids as somekind of shield or something. That was really bad. But you're right, this is sh**show. :(


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 01, 2017, 06:49:34 AM
D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

What more do they want Rajoy to do? They aren't actually advocating for killing people right?

No, of course not. I think the people asking for a harsher response basically want Rajoy to openly activate article 155 and essencially dissolve Catalonia's autonomous government, and maybe send Puigdemont and his cabinet to prison while they are at it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mvd10 on October 01, 2017, 06:55:41 AM
Yeah, that makes more sense. Honestly, this is a total sh**show, I hope it will be over soon.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on October 01, 2017, 06:58:39 AM
Yep that police response is exactly how to turn the swing voters and the younger generations towards independence. First thoughts are getting over with it, though. Really sad...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 01, 2017, 09:37:05 AM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 01, 2017, 09:45:12 AM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 01, 2017, 09:52:49 AM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 01, 2017, 10:07:54 AM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

Well, they won't vote. This referendum is basically worthless and the Spanish government won't give them one. (unless Podemos+nationalists somehow get an absolute majority, but lol)

But yeah, this will just embolden the pro-independence side. I wouldn't be surprised if independence support increases quite a bit after this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on October 01, 2017, 10:14:49 AM
Rajoy and his team coped with that issue probably in the most stupid way it was possible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 01, 2017, 10:23:50 AM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

If you have an extreme problem with a regional government, fire all the local politicians and replace them BEFORE VOTING DAY ARRIVES. YOU ABSOLUTELY DON'T BEAT INDIVIDUAL VOTERS WITH BATONS BECAUSE YOU FAILED AT OPTION #1. sh**tTY SPANISH GOVERNMENT.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 01, 2017, 10:32:41 AM
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/914481196167516160

The Spanish police are now beating up Catalan firefighters. This is an absolute shocker.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 01, 2017, 10:41:28 AM
https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/914499492992442369

"All police operations against us, a people calling for rights and freedoms, must stop."


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on October 01, 2017, 11:18:58 AM
Genuinely pathetic exercise across the board, but the Spanish government and Rajoy have managed to completely outdo the nationalists. Spain is looking like a joke country today.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Panhandle Progressive on October 01, 2017, 12:39:14 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLEaENVX0AA5IaI.jpg

Powerful image of firefighters acting as human shield to protect Catalonian people from Spanish police.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Harlow on October 01, 2017, 03:51:16 PM

If you have an extreme problem with a regional government, fire all the local politicians and replace them BEFORE VOTING DAY ARRIVES. YOU ABSOLUTELY DON'T BEAT INDIVIDUAL VOTERS WITH BATONS BECAUSE YOU FAILED AT OPTION #1. sh**tTY SPANISH GOVERNMENT.

I don't think a federal coup of Catalonia's regional government would go over particularly well, either...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on October 01, 2017, 04:37:43 PM
I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 01, 2017, 04:38:58 PM
PP is gonna suffer majorly for this at the polls, secession or not.  Rajoy is done.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on October 01, 2017, 04:48:14 PM
PP is gonna suffer majorly for this at the polls, secession or not.  Rajoy is done.

Are you sure about that.  I can see PP gaining in places like Andalusia, Extremadura and Castile and León as a result of this. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Harlow on October 01, 2017, 05:34:38 PM
I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

The roots of cultural and political division between Catalonia and Spain go back centuries and can't be easily watered down to "leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country." Likewise for everywhere else you have mentioned.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 01, 2017, 05:39:11 PM
Official (provisional) results from the referendum:

Yes 2,020,144(90 %)
No 176,566 (7,8 %)
Turnout: 2,262,464 (no official data but using the 2015 regional elections as a benchmark it implies 41% turnout)

There are still like 50000 votes not counted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 01, 2017, 05:41:04 PM
Official (provisional) results from the referendum:

Yes 2,020,144(90 %)
No 176,566 (7,8 %)
Turnout: 2,262,464 (no official data but using the 2015 regional elections as a benchmark it implies 41% turnout)

There are still like 50000 votes not counted.

Where are they published?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 01, 2017, 06:08:12 PM
Official (provisional) results from the referendum:

Yes 2,020,144(90 %)
No 176,566 (7,8 %)
Turnout: 2,262,464 (no official data but using the 2015 regional elections as a benchmark it implies 41% turnout)

There are still like 50000 votes not counted.

Where are they published?

There was a press conference reciently. They were also published on the official twitter page for the catalan government

https://twitter.com/govern/status/914618211164934144
https://twitter.com/govern/status/914618004582879232


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: The Mikado on October 02, 2017, 01:23:33 PM
I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

You should bring that exact question up with regards to Irish independence in the 1910s and see what some of our Irish posters have to say about being a subject minority nation in a country with democratic representation and how well that worked out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on October 02, 2017, 03:41:24 PM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

Well, they won't vote. This referendum is basically worthless and the Spanish government won't give them one. (unless Podemos+nationalists somehow get an absolute majority, but lol)

But yeah, this will just embolden the pro-independence side. I wouldn't be surprised if independence support increases quite a bit after this.

This referendum is totally legitimate. Let Catalonia be free.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on October 02, 2017, 03:46:54 PM
I'm fervently opposed to Catalan/Scottish/Confederate/wherever independence because I do not believe that parts of countries with democratic governments should be able to easily leave whenever they happen to disagree with the rest of the country - but I am disgusted by the actions of the Spanish government today.

As a more libertarian leaning conservative, I support it because Madrid has repeatedly violated human and civil liberties that these people clearly have the right to.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 02, 2017, 04:29:39 PM
Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

Well, they won't vote. This referendum is basically worthless and the Spanish government won't give them one. (unless Podemos+nationalists somehow get an absolute majority, but lol)

But yeah, this will just embolden the pro-independence side. I wouldn't be surprised if independence support increases quite a bit after this.

This referendum is totally legitimate. Let Catalonia be free.

Come on. I am not completely against a proper referendum (though I'd try to make it only a last chance compromise, ideally a federal Spain, fiscal autonomy or more self governance should be the preferred options), but this was far from a proper referendum. Even North Korean elections are more reliable.

There was no proper census, people were able to vote more than once, the police closed several polling places, there was an organized unionist boycott, etc.

If this had been a perfectly organized and legal referendum, I'd be the first to support Catalan independence, but this is not the way forward.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 03, 2017, 03:38:45 PM
The king spoke today on a special speech on national TV. This is actually very unprecedented as the king has only spoken on national TV outside christmas 3 times before: during the 1981 coup, right after the 2004 Madrid bombings and when he anounced his resignation in 2014.

The speech itself was quite uninteresting, just talking about "unadmisible unloyalty" by the Catalan government, guaranteeing Spain's unity and the like. Nothing that he hasn't said before.

It's less about the speech itself and more about the fact that he made a speech on TV.

Also, Rajoy met yesterday with both PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez and Cs leader Albert Rivera, with completely opposite results. Sánchez asked Rajoy to talk with Puigdemont while Rivera asked him to use article 155. Meanwhile Podemos wants PSOE to drop support for Rajoy and call a no confidence vote (which would pass if he got PNV and the Catalan nationalists).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Kamala on October 03, 2017, 04:23:57 PM
Wait, Juan Carlos spoke? Or Felipe VI?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Helsinkian on October 03, 2017, 04:45:23 PM

Felipe, the current King.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 05, 2017, 07:22:59 AM
As part of the most recient CIS poll (which also said that Catalonia and terrorism have spiked as worries for Spaniards), there was apparently a question about centralism and federalism (which is always there) that I think could be interesting considering the current situation in Catalonia:

Please tell with which of these proposals for Spain's territorial organization do you agree with the most:

A state without autonomous communities: 18.9%
A state where autonomous communities have less powers than currently: 10.5%
A state with autonomous communities like we currently have: 36.8%
A state where autonomous communities have more powers than as of now: 15.8%
A state where autonomous communities would have the chance to become independent: 9.6%

Joining options 1 and 2 and 4 and 5 you probably get something like this:

Centralism: 29.4%
Status Quo: 36.8%
Federalism/Independence: 25.4%

As for party crosstabs, PP voters prefer centralism in general (47.6-38.5-7). PSOE prefers the status quo. Interestingly centralism beats federalism even though PSOE is the only party that explicitly calls for a federal state (23.9-49.4-19.2). Podemos voters prefer federalism/independence (25.3-32.5-41.3) and finally Cs voters also prefer centralism (44.5-32.5-17.5) though are slighly more moderate than PP ones as they prefer less autonomy over no autonomies at all.

And obviously those that voted for Catalan nationalist parties want independence. PNV voters want the status quo or more (4.5-54.5-40.9)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3187rei_A.pdf

Other crosstabs are available as well (by gender, by age, etc)

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2017/Documentacion_3187.html

Interestingly these numbers show a drop in support for the status quo and those who want independence. Those who want more central government have been increasing. Federalists have stayed flat. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on October 06, 2017, 05:45:03 AM
spain losing another part of territory. they didn't learn nothing in last 200 years.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 10, 2017, 05:56:17 PM
Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.

()

Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 10, 2017, 06:04:44 PM
Well, it's official guys, Puigdemont actually did it! The absolute madman! He declared independence for all of 8 seconds before going back on his word and suspending the independence declaration for the sake of dialog (because of course Rajoy has been so open to it).

So now apparently an independent Catalonia has the somewhat dubious honor of being the shortest lived state and third shortest lived state in history respectively.

()

Now seriously, Puigdemont basically went to the Catalan parliament, implicitly declared independence (though he didn't say "I declare the independence of the Catalan Republic" or anything like that, he just hinted at it) and he inmediately suspended it.

I'm not sure if I should be disappointed or relieved. Tomorrow Rajoy will speak in the Congress of Deputies. Also tomorrow everyone expects the Constitutional Court to declare the indepependence declaration illegal.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/10/inenglish/1507620922_401849.html

As for reactions, the unionists (PSC, PP, Cs) are obviously unhappy with this. CUP is also unhappy, they wanted an explicit independence declaration that was effective inmediately. Maybe they'll break their deal, leading to an early election? Surprisingly, Podemos has been quite positive that they haven't declared independence outright and went for more talks.

"We are seceding from Spain...at an undetermined time!"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Hydera on October 10, 2017, 09:41:10 PM
http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on October 10, 2017, 09:46:08 PM
http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-ciudadanos-sube-18-escanos-y-desbanca-podemos-tercer-puesto-201710082154_noticia.html

http://www.electograph.com/2017/10/espana-sondeo-gad3-generales-octubre.html

Support for PP down while Ciudadanos is going up. C's Benefiting from the negative reaction against Independence as well as the Guardia Civil being sent to stop voting that resulted in violence.

I'd say this is pretty expected.  I am surprised that PP didn't fall by more, though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Kamala on October 10, 2017, 09:46:17 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 10, 2017, 10:45:38 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 11, 2017, 06:44:46 AM
Yesterday's weird "non declaration of independence" has been responded with an equally weird "non activation of article 155". Rajoy has asked the Catalan government if they have actually declared independence or not.

More interestingly, PSOE has said that they have reached an agreement with PP. They will support activating article 155, in exchange for a constitutional reform in 6 months. However that constitutional reform won't include a referendum.

I can see the reform making no one happy, with Podemos and nationalists voting against it since it lacks a referendum and Cs voting against it as they've been moving to the right of PP reciently.

PSOE+PP has the numbers for a light constitutional reform, but not for a large one. And it would require a referendum

Depending on how ambitious they want to be they might have to talk with Cs and Podemos or not.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on October 14, 2017, 11:34:26 AM
Catalonia crisis pushed C above Podemos in latest poll

()

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-10-14/independencia-cataluna-estimacion-de-voto-ciudadanos-podemos-pp-psoe_1460752/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 19, 2017, 05:08:07 AM
All ultimatums given by the Spanish government before they activate article 155 have expired. So article 155 will be activated and the government in Madrid will take back control of certain competences for a while.

However, this won't happen until Saturday, when the government will go to the Senate and vote a proposal for applying article 155 which requires an absolute majority (not a problem, PP alone already has one, and they also have PSOE and Cs support, meaning that 80% of the Senate is in favour)

In the mean time Puigdemont has threatened to vote the declaration of independence and actually do it for real this time.

As for how this is affecting parties, Podemos seems to be stuck at 17-18%. PP and PSOE have dropped and Cs has dramatically increased to the point where it's now tied with Podemos for third place. I guess Podemos is getting their base of people who want a soft response but nobody else, while Cs is getting hardliners from PSOE and PP. That poll is not an outlier.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 21, 2017, 10:16:29 AM
We finally have details about how article 155 will work. The government will basically fire Puidemont and his entire cabinet, taking control of Catalonia's institutions temporarily (the generalitat won't be dissolved technically, but it will become an empty puppet). The government will call a snap election in 6 months or less.

Puigdemont still has some time to react as the Senate won't vote on this until the 27th. In fact many are saying that he should call a parliamentary vote and declare independence on Monday.

As for the Senate vote, it will get roughly 80% of the Senate in favour. The expected result is this:

Yea (216): PP*+PSOE+Cs

Nay (46): Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV+Bildu+Compromís

Unsure (4): ASG (party of a "cacique" in La Gomera)+CC+NCa

* PP includes the senators from UPN in Navarra, Foro in Asturias and PAR in Aragon.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Helsinkian on October 21, 2017, 12:02:24 PM
What will happen if the independence supporters win the new election as well?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 22, 2017, 06:24:05 AM
Nobody really knows. I guess the current Catalan government stays in place. It would be a bad outcome though, as they would likely keep pushing for independence, which would lead to article 155 being activated again, new elections again, etc



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 27, 2017, 02:55:25 PM
Yesterday we thought that Puigdemont actually might surrender and call a snap election but in the end he refused because Rajoy wouldn't give amnesty to the leaders of the 2 largest civil society lobbying groups for independence and immunity to Puigdemont and his cabinet or something like that. What a shame :(

Anyways today 2 important things regarding Catalonia happened.

First, the Catalan parliament declared independence, for real this time, not just 8 seconds. The vote went as expected, civil servants saying it was illegal, unionists boycotting the vote, etc. The final result was:

Yes: 70
No: 10
Blank: 2

The vote was by secret ballot, so we can't really know for sure how many defectors there were on either side. JxSí+CUP have 72 MPs while CQSP has 11 so we can assume that there were a few defectors on both sides.

The other weird thing is that the actual independence declaration was not in the law itself but on the preamble, which almost never has actual effects, but it's still part of the law. Not much difference


Shortly after, the Spanish senate finally passed article 155. The end result was as follows:

Yes: 214 (PP+PSOE+Cs+CC-AHI+Foro+UPN)
No: 47 (Podemos+PDECat+ERC+PNV+Bildu+Compromís)
Abstaining: 1 (NCa)

And right as I write this, Rajoy has activated article 155 for real. This means the Puigdemont and his cabinet have been fired, the Catalan devolved police placed under direct control from the Spanish ministry of the interior, and the Catalan government are basically puppets of the Spanish government. A snap election in Catalonia has been called for the 21st of December, the earliest date allowed by the law (a snap election needs to be called at least 2 months in advance).

Terrible situation all around, literally the worst case "trains crashing" scenario. Today is a sad day in Spain's history :(


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Angel of Death on October 27, 2017, 03:08:06 PM
The only sensible solution to me seems to be to turn Spain into a proper federal country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on October 28, 2017, 08:15:23 AM
I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 01, 2017, 05:44:44 PM
I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.

Well, we finally have some Catalan polls for the December 21st election after everything that has happened (we have actually had them for a while but they were outdated the moment they came out). The first poll taken after Puigdemont left to Belgium has this result:

()
 
Secessionists still have a bare majority of 1 (68-67). Interestingly, PDECat's candidate might not be in favour of unilateral independence, but instead switching back to the positions of CiU before 2012, while defending a referendum with approval from Spain like Podemos!

The only declared candidate thus far, is Santi Vila, former regional minister of business (2017), culture (2016-2017) and territory and sustainability (2012-2016) has those positions. In fact he actually resigned shortly before the declaration of independence. Then again he might not remain as the only candidate for long, or maybe he'll run unopposed, who knows?

In fact PDECat is not the only party with an internal schism. Pablo Iglesias has "article 155-ed" his party's branch in Catalonia and forced a referendum on whether they should go in coalition with only Ada Colau's party and allies. This is because their regional leader there, Dante Fachín, is actually in favour of independence and wanted an alliance with ERC

And of course it's still not clear whether CUP will contest the election or not. They say that it will be decided by the party membership.

As for general election polls, not many yet though the general direction seems to be Cs up, everyone else going down a bit.

Also, just realized that if Catalonia actually goes out to vote on December 21st, the election will actually be held on a Thursday instead of a Sunday! This might depress turnout though I think workers are allowed by law to have at least 2 hours free at work to be able to go out and vote.

Now, there have been elections held on workdays, but they aren't common, especially not in our recient history. The first 3 general elections (1977, 1979, 1982) were indeed held on workdays (Wednesday for the first 2, Thursday for 1982). And the 1976, 1978 and 1986 referendums were also held on a workday. And even Catalonia's first regional election (1980) was held on a Thirsday indeed

But outside Spain's early democratic history there aren't many examples. The 2006 Catalan election was held on a Wednesday, but that was a public holiday (November 1st, all saints day) so it doesn't really count.

Seems like an odd move but apparently Rajoy preferred to call the election on a workday rather than wait a little longer.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 03, 2017, 07:46:24 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on November 03, 2017, 09:11:09 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on November 04, 2017, 07:25:47 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.
And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on November 07, 2017, 10:57:15 AM
CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) poll from October: (https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/07/actualidad/1510044178_252789.html)

()

Poll conducted between 2 and 11 October. Polled 2,487 voters. MoE of 2.0%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on November 07, 2017, 05:57:21 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.
And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

^wtf

On a side note we had a host of Catalan mayors march into the European Quarter to hold some speeches, and Addidas have released the Spain World Cup kit with the Republican flag on it, triggering the entire Spanish Right-wig twittersphere, and according to the Spanish football federation "people right from the top".

()


Also apparently Vox is given a seat in some nationwide polls? I thought they faded to irrelevance? Who is leading them these days?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 08, 2017, 06:17:23 PM
Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.
If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.
And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

^wtf

On a side note we had a host of Catalan mayors march into the European Quarter to hold some speeches, and Addidas have released the Spain World Cup kit with the Republican flag on it, triggering the entire Spanish Right-wig twittersphere, and according to the Spanish football federation "people right from the top".

()


Also apparently Vox is given a seat in some nationwide polls? I thought they faded to irrelevance? Who is leading them these days?

Yeah, the reaction to the Spanish shirt on the world cup has been pretty funny.

And here's the actual poll where VOX gets a seat:

()

I personally think it's an outlier (not just VOX getting a seat out of nowhere but also Cs breaking 20%), but maybe its findings will be confirmed later who knows.

As for who is leading them, shortly after narrowly failing to get seats in the 2014 EU elections, their leader, was replaced with former MP in the Basque regional parliament Santiago Abascal. He has also tried to steer the party in a different direction, making it more of a Spanish AfD or PVV, adopting very harsh rethoric against muslim inmigration and terrorism. They also want to completely abolish the comunidades autonomas and are extremely hardline on Catalonia.

While they did indeed fade to irrelevance for the most part, for all what's worth they have a large following in Spain's largest forum board: Forocoches. Of course, Forocoches is basically the Spanish 4chan so it's no surprise they win big there. For all what's worth their latest horrible poll has:

Cs: 32.9%
VOX: 21.3%
PP: 9.0%
PSOE: 3.8%

So yeah, definitely nothing remotely reliable. In fact VOX used one of their polls as proof that they were doing good in the 2016 election and got mocked in the internet.

For all what's worth though the "others" category has been slowly rising in most polls so maybe they are indeed right, but we can't really know who is in there. It could have also been PACMA or even UPyD (another outlier gave them like 3% this August but no other polls confirmed that so I guess it was a junk poll).

If a new non nationalist party wants to get a seat, their number 1 priority should be to get at least 3% of the vote in either Madrid or Barcelona provinces, which basically guarantees that they'll get a seat. The lowest percentage with which a national party has received seats was UPyD in 2008 who got 1 seat with 1.19% of the vote nationally (3.7% in Madrid). And the highest with no seats was CDS in 1993, which got 1.76% of the vote nationally but narrowly missed the theshold in Madrid (got 2.99% of the vote, missing the threshold by 440 votes).

So depending on how well concentrated VOX's vote is, they might be able to get 1 seat with as low as 1.6% of the vote (what they got in the 2014 EU election).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 08, 2017, 06:19:50 PM
Is the threshold 2%?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 08, 2017, 06:27:54 PM
The electoral system is constituency based, so there is no real threshold per se (I think there is a set threshold of three percent per constituency, but most of them are small constituencies with a higher effective threshold).

I'm going to pump for PACMA?

Also, the reason to oppose Diaz isn't just because of ideology, Bloomberg. The Southern barons are, erm, not good backers.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 08, 2017, 06:31:45 PM

On paper: 3% at the constituency level.

In practice the threshold only really applies to Madrid and Barcelona provinces as every other place doesn't have enough seats for a party with 3% to get in. After Madrid and Barcelona (with more than 30 seats each) the next largest would be Valencia but that one only has 15 seats so to get a seat there you would need to be at around 5% or so.

The seats are distributed accorging to constituencies, not all of Spain. So in theory you could have a party winning the popular vote but getting less seats. That was a possibility between Podemos and PSOE in the run up to the 2016 election, some thought PSOE would get more seats but a lower popular vote percentage than Podemos. In the end they ended up winning both.

And as for PACMA, they got their best result in Barcelona (1.8% while they were at 1.2% nationally). In theory a good campaign could mean a seat for PACMA in Barcelona but it's highly unlikely.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 08, 2017, 06:39:55 PM
the worst part is the senate, which is the world's worst system: bloc vote. IMO the wisest thing to do though would be to try and run joint candidates on an "abolish the senate" platform.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on November 09, 2017, 10:57:28 AM
If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on November 09, 2017, 04:04:50 PM
If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

No regional party would ever want to support a government with Citizens in.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 09, 2017, 04:23:59 PM
If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

No regional party would ever want to support a government with Citizens in.

The Canarian parties would but they will almost certainly only get 1 seat from CC. NCa ran alongside PSOE last time so in any PSOE led coalition they'll support that


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 12, 2017, 03:50:53 PM
Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on November 12, 2017, 04:40:06 PM
Ciudadanos at 22-23% and tied with PSOE, absolutely beautiful. Go Rivera!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on November 12, 2017, 04:40:23 PM
Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672

Wow ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 12, 2017, 04:50:27 PM
I hope this poll isn’t an outlier. While I doubt that C’s can overtake PP, this shows that it will be a true driving force throughout Spanish politics at a higher level than ever before.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on November 12, 2017, 05:01:18 PM
Looks real

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/12/actualidad/1510492625_447115.html

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 12, 2017, 05:05:35 PM
Looks real

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/12/actualidad/1510492625_447115.html

()

Now, it just remains to be seen whether or not elections are called soon.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on November 12, 2017, 05:13:18 PM
I think the next bifurcation point would be the Catalan elections Dec and see if the pro-Independence forces and capture a majority.  If so the crisis would get worse and PP/C would gain at the expense of of PSOE. 

I have an old rule of politics

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 12, 2017, 05:21:29 PM
I think the next bifurcation point would be the Catalan elections Dec and see if the pro-Independence forces and capture a majority.  If so the crisis would get worse and PP/C would gain at the expense of of PSOE. 

I have an old rule of politics

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   

Huh, interesting.

This will be a pivotal next few months.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 12, 2017, 08:35:39 PM
For all what's worth, while the Metroscopia poll is 100% real and from a decent polling company, Metroscopia has consistently overpolled Cs. I do believe that Cs has increased quite a lot and has overtaken Podemos, but they are probably still at 20% or lower, with PSOE ahead of them by a couple points.

Also, notice the increase in "others". It's at 13.8% while on the general election of 2016 it was at  10.1%. This makes me think that maybe that poll that gave VOX a seat was not an outlier after all or that PACMA might be able to get a seat.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 13, 2017, 05:58:08 AM
That poll is most alarming for Podemos: Metroscopia typically overpoll Podemos and C's and under poll the old parties.

The left had better hope the Catalonia issue dies down and Spain gets to talk about actually important issues. (What is poverty and corruption? The only thing that matters is muh fleg!)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on November 13, 2017, 06:56:08 AM
That poll is most alarming for Podemos: Metroscopia typically overpoll Podemos and C's and under poll the old parties.

The left had better hope the Catalonia issue dies down and Spain gets to talk about actually important issues. (What is poverty and corruption? The only thing that matters is muh fleg!)

I mean, I would think about the unity of my nation as a "real issue" if I were Spanish.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 19, 2017, 11:50:56 AM
The time to register as a party to be able to take part in the Catalan election has ended. The following parties will present candidates. The ones with a chance to get seats appear in a colour other than black.

All of Catalonia

PARTIT DELS SOCIALISTES DE CATALUNYA (PSC-PSOE)
PARTIT POPULAR / PARTIDO POPULAR (PP)
ESQUERRA REPUBLICANA-CATALUNYA SÍ (ERC-CatSÍ)
CIUTADANS-PARTIDO DE LA CIUDADANIA (C’s)
CANDIDATURA D’UNITAT POPULAR (CUP)
CATALUNYA EN COMÚ-PODEM (CatComú-Podem)
JUNTS PER CATALUNYA (JUNTSxCAT)
RECORTES CERO-GRUPO VERDE (RECORTES CERO-GRUPO VERDE)
PARTIT ANIMALISTA CONTRA EL MALTRACTAMENT ANIMAL (PACMA)
PER UN MON MES JUST (PUM+J)
DIÀLEG REPUBLICÀ (DIÀLEG)

Barcelona only

LA FAMILIA PAZ Y LIBERTAD (La Familia)
DEMOCRACIA NACIONAL (DN)
PARTIT FAMILIA i VIDA (PFiV)
CONVERGENTS (CNV)
UNIDOS y SOCIALISTAS+por la Democracia

Tarragona only
CIUDADANOS LIBRES UNIDOS (CLIUS)

Party leaders and candidates

PSC-PSOE: Miquel Iceta
PP: Xavier García Albiol
ERC: Oriol Junqueras is the number 1 in the list but he is in jail. The de facto leader is Marta Rovira
Cs: Ines Arrimadas
CUP: Carles Riera. CUP has a strict one term policy for their leaders so their former leaders, Anna Gabriel and Antonio Baños are nowhere in the lists.
En Comú Podem: Xavier Domenech
Junts x Catalunya: Carles Puigdemont. He is in Belgium and I have no idea who the actual leader is. This is PDECat but under another name basically. Though the list includes a lot of independents (including the 2 Jordis that are in jail) and very few who are actually from PDECat.

https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2017/11/19/pdfs/BOE-A-2017-13305.pdf


Of the minor lists, I'd say the only interesting ones are PACMA (who has a very small chance of getting seats, the threshold seems to be 3%), Convergents (founded by a corrupt regional minister, trying to be like the former Unió, as in nationalist but not secessionist) and maaaybe Recortes Cero (far left, even more than Podemos, but hardline unionist) and Democracia Nacional (the only far right party that is contesting the election). Also, apparently Dialeg República was an ERC list they registered in case the party was illegalized but they weren't able to drop out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on November 19, 2017, 04:46:54 PM
hmmm...something tells me at least one of the ones running only in Barcelona are marketing companies.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 19, 2017, 06:12:22 PM
What is PACMA's stance on the union?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 19, 2017, 06:53:02 PM

Surprisingly, they don't have one! They seem to just ignore the issue and pretend it doesn't exist. None of their manifestos even had a single reference to the whole independence process.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 25, 2017, 09:02:59 PM
Slightly less than 1 month before the Catalan election, the polling average seems to be this:

()

Secesionists win 45.5-42.9-9.1 and they also win in seat count 67-57-11. They seem to have lost the psychologic barrier of 68 seats (a majority) but honestly that's still a toss up.

I personally hope they lose their majority, that way someone can at least hit the brakes and slow down things.

Also, it seems that the lists of candidates I posted before were temporary, and some of them apparently won't be able to run. In fact other than the ones that will get seats only PACMA, PUM+J, Recortes Cero and Dialeg Republica (idk why ERC didn't drop this list in the end) were allowed to run.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on November 26, 2017, 06:22:23 AM
Is there really a chance of the revival of the tripartit of 2003 (CeC replacing ICV obviously)? That was one of the better regional governments in recent years, and it could reconcile Catalan society while pushing for more autonomy. But given what happened in Barcelona it seems like PSC, CeC and ERC can't even get along at the local level over the Catalan national issue.

Also, Puigdemont has just gone off on one against the EU

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171126/433202110437/carles-puigdemont-catalunya-ue-mariano-rajoy.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 26, 2017, 08:01:17 AM
Yeah, a tripartit 2.0 seems like an unlikely possibility given how much ERC and PSC hate each other. If Catalonia's independence wasn't on the table it would easily happen but I think independence is too big of an obstacle.

If secessionsists lose their majority it's one of the more realistic possibilities though. Maybe there's some variant of that like say, an ERC-Podemos minority government supported by JxCat, CUP or PSC depending on the votes

Of course, if secessionists keep their majority that option won't be considered.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on November 26, 2017, 09:28:07 AM
Given that Sanchez indicated that constitutional reform was now a guarentee in exchange for him to have supported article 155, if I were in ERC's position, I would still negotiate with PSOE in order to take a constitutional compromise at the national level. In exchange, ERC would get PSOE to collapse the Rajoy government and campaign on an explicit federalist platform as a reconciliatory exercise. Its not independence but its the best they can hope for, short term.

I doubt there are many federalists left in the PSOE higher-ups, apart from Sanchez (if he even is a federalist), and even less non-DUI ERC members too. I guess the issue is also that both parties (ERC, PSC) have direct competitors advocating a hardline approach to the Catalan national issue (CUP, C's), so compromise and more elections is a risky business. No True Scotsman-style nationalism is hard to stop these days.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 04, 2017, 07:29:58 AM
Tonight at midnight will officially begin the electoral campaign for the Catalan regional election. And just in time for that, Cs gets its first polling lead ever!

CIS

ERC: 32 (20,8%)
JxCatalunya: 25-26 (16,9%)
CUP: 9 (6,7%)

Cs: 31-32 (22,5%)
PSC: 21 (16%)
PP: 7 (5,8%)

Catalunya En Comú-Podem: 9 (8,6%)

Secessionists: 44,4%
Unionists: 47,1%
Mixed: 8,6%

PP becomes even more irrelevant in Catalonia and gets its worst result since 1991. It would also be a bad election for Podemos as they would get their worst result since 2003 (as ICV-EUiA)

Also, no government seems viable with those numbers IMO. A tripartit 2.0; a pure unionist and a pure secessionist government all lack a majority. I guess either Catalonia goes to a 2nd election or Podemos actually picks a side (most likely secessionists via abstaining).

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2017/12/04/politica/1512382472_552688.html

Though it's not the only recient poll. Here's another one.

Sociométrica/El Español

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 04, 2017, 11:15:05 AM
If PP were to somehow drop out of the Catalan parliament entirely (lmao) could you get a C's-PSOE-Podemos alliance, or are C's too right for Podemos?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 04, 2017, 01:30:43 PM
If PP were to somehow drop out of the Catalan parliament entirely (lmao) could you get a C's-PSOE-Podemos alliance, or are C's too right for Podemos?

Well, PP falling short and getting 0 seats is almost unimaginable. To get seats you need at least 3% in one province. Of course in practice the 3% threshold only applies to Barcelona, everywhere else it's higher. And PP seems to be stronger than average in Barcelona (as expected for a unionist party), so they might need to drop even lower, to like 2.7% or so, in order to lose all their seats.

For reference, Cs entered the Catalan parliament in 2006 with exactly 3% of the vote (3.5% in Barcelona) and the Andalusian Socialist Party (an Andalusian nationalist party which bizarrely contested the 1980 Catalan election) managed to get a seat with 2.7% of the vote (3% in Barcelona)

I don't think it's possible at all for PP to lose all their seats. Even in a worst case scenario they'd drop all the way to 4 or so (losing all their non-Barcelona seats in the process), but not completely drop out. Same with CUP and Podemos.

Still, if it somehow happened a Cs-PSC-Podemos deal would be too right wing for Podemos. Remember we already saw the same scenario happen at the national level right after the 2015 election and Podemos voted against the PSOE-Cs deal (and with PSOE on top in fact!). Granted, Catalonia's circumstances make it different but even then if Arrimadas is the candidate I don't see it. Maybe they could support a minority PSC government if PSC somehow became the largest unionist force (or Cs allowed them to be regional president even if they are far from being the largest party, kind of like Cantabria 2003) but I'm not sure if that might happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 04, 2017, 02:03:23 PM
But the unionist alliance (C-PSC-PP) is possible? Surely hard for PSC too.
Look like there is no clear way out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 04, 2017, 03:00:18 PM
I was thinking that CUP are able to get away propping up a conservative party like CiU, or whatever they're called now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 04, 2017, 03:57:48 PM
Yay for Cs!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 05, 2017, 08:12:32 PM
Here are some posters from the campaign:

()

No permission for being free, nor apologizing for actually being free

()

Democracy always wins

()

Puigdemont, our president

()

We have a lot in common (kind of a pun with the party name: "Catalunya en comú"

()

Now yes, we will vote (reference to "we will vote", which secessionists used during the illegal 1st of October referendum)

()

Solutions! Now Iceta!

()

Spain is the solution.

Seems like PSC and JxCat are running a presidential style campaign. That seems to be working in both cases, particularly JxCat, who seems to be rising a lot. Seems like they've been having the best campaign so far. Interestingly their posters seem to have copied Podemos


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2017, 05:02:27 PM
Even more shocking polls! Not sure how accurate they'll be (Spanish pollsters have failed miserably reciently) but whatever. From oldest (yesterday) to newest (today):

Invymark for La Sexta

()

Feedback for elnacional.cat

ERC: 24% (35-36)
JxCat: 17.1% (25)
CUP: 6.4% (8 )

Cs: 22.8% (31-32)
PSC: 13.5% (19-20)
PP: 6.2% (7)

CeC: 9.3% (11)

Secessionists: 47.5% (68-69)
Unionists: 42.5% (55-56)
Neutral/others: 10% (11)

Internal PP poll

ERC: 36
JxCat: 22
CUP: 8

Cs: 30
PSC: 23
PP: 11

CeC: 5

Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya

()

()

Secessionists: 45.8%
Unionists: 43.8%
Others: 10.4%

Of these 4 polls the Invymark-La Sexta and Gesop-El Periódico ones are probably the most reliable. The elnacional.cat one might be good but it may have a secessionsist bias. The PP internal is almost certainly junk. Lol at CeC at 5 seats


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on December 06, 2017, 05:05:53 PM
Apologies if already asked - but PSC seem to be coming out of all of this quite well. Any reason why?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2017, 06:12:10 PM
^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 06, 2017, 06:17:50 PM
^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat and non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 06, 2017, 06:39:03 PM
Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2017, 07:10:49 PM
^
There could be several. I guess that's it's a combination of:

-PSC is the only pure unionist left wing force. Podemos seems to have moved closer to the secessionists after all these events so some Podemos voters may be going back to PSC

-PSC did an alliance with Unió, a conservative nationalist but not secessionist party. PSC seems to also have adopted some soft nationalism. So some soft nationalists that don't want independence might be willing to vote PSC

Do you think the traditional Baix Llogrebat non-catalanist industrial parts in Barcelona comarca will vote PSC or switch to Arrimadas and C's?

Also the vote transfers seem to suggest they are benefiting from CatCom's collapse as you suggest.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171205/433434206682/elecciones-catalanas-sangria-votos-xavier-garcia-albiol-ines-arrimadas-cis.html

They already switched in 2015 for the most part. I could certainly see them switching back to PSC though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2017, 07:40:38 PM
Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. :P Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FrancoAgo on December 06, 2017, 08:32:19 PM
PSC + ERC with Podemos would be enough for a majority...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 07, 2017, 12:18:21 AM
Forget about a coalition between ERC, PSC and CatComú-Podem. PSC leader Miquel Iceta said that his party will never make a separatist president. ERC secretary general Marta Rovira said a coalition pact with PSC is impossible. Rovira is the ERC de-facto candidate, given that Oriol Junqueras is behind the bars.

Also, it's worth noting that one of the main arguments of Catalan separatists is that Spain is impossible to reform. Furthermore, Artur Mas set the procés in motion to keep the possibility of a new 'tripartit' (PSC-ERC-ICV coalition) at bay. Neoliberal Mas was implementing harsh budget cuts and was becoming very unpopular. Keep in mind that.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 07, 2017, 10:26:56 AM
Yikes! The polls are a mess.

Tack, we are following here very carefully the elections because, as we say here, "When Spain sneezes, Portugal catches pneumonia", and the main doubt we have here is what kind of coalitions can emerge from this. Can PSC and ERC make some kind of agreement to force constitutional reforms, or is ERC to much cornered in the independent side to even dialogue with PSC? Looking to the overall picture, it seems to me that PSC can play a major role on what kind of government Catalonia will have.

To be fair, unless Portugal also has some secessionist region I wouldn't read much into this regional election. :P Spain's and Portugal's politics are somewhat comparable I guess, particularly in non-nationalist communities. But definitely not Catalan politics.

In theory a PSC-ERC alliance wouldn't be that difficult or unprecedented. Catalonia was ruled by a PSC-ERC-ICV allliance between 2003 and 2010 after all. I'm not sure if they would be able to work together. Remember that a constitutional reform would need the support not just of PSOE and Podemos but also PP and a referendum in all of Spain. So support in exchange for reforms is unlikely.

For all what's worth PP has been quite negative about reforms, saying that "they can't be to make secessionists happy" and the like. And even if it somehow passed the referendum might be a challenge and the campaign would be very ugly. It seems like the secessionists have sparked some sort of renaissance of Spanish nationalism.

I agree that PSC will be very important. But it seems that the most likely scenario if secessionists don't get their majority is a new election some time in early autumn of 2018. In that case the hypothetical coalitions would be:

-Secessionists+Podemos abstention. Very viable if ERC wins the election and picks their candidate. However that would certify Podemos' death in most of Spain so they'll be careful. If Puigdemont somehow manages to lead the secessionists it won't happen

-ERC-PSC-CeC: Somewhat viable. I can see ERC going for it, but PSC would have to at least accept a legal referendum which would cause caos and infighting inside PSOE (again). And of course numbers don't seem favourable anyways. They might get CUP to abstain but really I doubt it.

-PSC-CeC-Cs-PP: Somewhat viable if PSC somehow becomes the largest unionist party. I could see them being just left wing enough and just unionist enough to get Cs, PP's and Podemos' support. But still unlikely. Impossible if Cs is the largest party.

What worry us, here, is the economic impact the Catalonia crisis can have in the Spanish economy, that would ultimately affect deeply Portugal.

Nonetheless, very interesting coalition scenarios. We'll see how this unfolds.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zanas on December 08, 2017, 12:43:57 PM
The person responsible for how the parties are ordered around this graphic by decreasing voting intention instead of, you know, the relevant stuff, should be fired, then shot.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 14, 2017, 06:08:34 PM
Metroscopia poll for El País: (https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/12/14/actualidad/1513272702_380771.html)

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Polling still shows a close race between ERC and C's, while Puigdemont's JxCat seems to be falling. PP is at record low levels. I'm skeptical about turnout, 80% on a week day seems very high, IMO.

Also, no exit polls on election day. (http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171214/tv3-tve-no-haran-sondeo-electoral-21d-6495744)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 14, 2017, 08:24:08 PM
Well, considering that today was the last day to publish polls we actually got a ton of polls that will appear tomorrow in newspapers (though they seem to have been leaked). Here is the final poll done by every polling company:

20 Minutos

ERC 33-35
CS 32-34
JXCAT 24-26
PSC 20-21
CEC 7-8
CUP 7-8
PP 6-7

http://electomania.es/encuesta-de-20minutos-es-erc-y-ciudadanos-lucharan-por-la-victoria/

NC Report for La Razón

ERC 34 escaños / 22.4%
CS 33 / 21.8%
JxC 25 / 16.1%
PSC 21 / 15.9%
CEC 9 / 7.6%
PP 8 / 7.5%
CUP 7 / 5.8%


http://electomania.es/nc-report-para-la-razon-todos-lejos-de-la-mayoria/

GAD3 for ABC

Cs: 23.2%  (31-32 escaños)
ERC: 20.3% (29-31)
JxCat; 19.5% (29-30)
PSC: 16.3% (22-23)
CeC: 7.5% (8 )
PP: 6.2% (7-8)
CUP: 5.6% (6)

http://electomania.es/abc-arrimadas-ganaria-en-votos-y-escanos/

Sigma Dos for El Mundo

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Gesop for El Periódico de Catalunya

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Top Position

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Podemos internal (from yesterday)

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Elnacional.cat (from 2 days ago) (tracker)

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 14, 2017, 08:39:21 PM
My analysis would be that in terms of who will come first it's probably too close to call, with Cs probably being favoured in the popular vote but ERC probably being favoured in terms of seats.

As for the rest, JxCat will take the third place, the question being how close can it get to Cs and ERC. PSC will regain votes and around 21 seats. And finally, there's a 3 way tie for last, with Podemos being slightly better off than the other 2. CUP will lose a little but PP will actually lose half their voters. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost all their non Barcelona seats (though I think they will at least hold 1 in Tarragona)

In terms of blocks, secessionists will almost certainly win both in votes and in seats, though as for whether they will lose their majority it's a tossup.

Finally, apparently there's no exit poll because the last one, for the 2016 general election was ridiculously inaccurate. Polling errors in standard polls are more or less acceptable (within certain margins), but missing in an exit poll, particularly by such a huge and crucial margin was really bad. So IMO good riddance. It's not like we need them, Spain seems to be pretty fast at counting votes. We should get like 95% counted by midnight. Here's a comparison of the exit poll compared to the actual election if anyone cares:

Exit poll

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Reality:

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They only really got right CC, PNV and PSOE. Everyone else was off in some way or another.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 15, 2017, 07:16:46 AM
If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support? 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 15, 2017, 07:53:07 AM
If the pro-Independence forces could not win a majority then which side would the Podemos bloc back?  I cannot imagine Podemos going with a bloc that includes PP.   I assume they are more aligned with the  pro-Independence bloc.  If they do join up with the pro-Independence bloc will they make not going ahead with Independence a condition of their support?  

I don't know. Podemos wants an ERC-PSC-Podemos left wing ambiguous government but neither ERC nor PSC want that. I guess they could abstain, and just allow the side with the most seats (almost certainly nationalists) to govern, but that would be risky for their prospects outside nationalist communities. It might hurt the party a lot outside Catalonia/Basque Country/Navarra and maybe 2 or 3 others.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 15, 2017, 07:56:31 AM
Also, we got a few more polls from other companies:

MyWord for Cadena SER

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Invymark for La Sexta

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Elnacional.cat (tracker)

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As someone said, seems like Puigdemont's rise has stopped and CUP and PP are in a dead heat, with Podemos not too much above them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 15, 2017, 08:50:13 PM
The last polls from the polling companies that hadn't released their final poll yet:

Sociométrica for El Español

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GAD3 for ABC

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ERC internal

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The final polling average ends up being this:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 16, 2017, 12:04:18 PM
Mysterious Andorran fruit shops strike again!

Mysterious Andorran fruit shop poll (GESOP for El Periòdic de Andorra)

🍋 Junquera 22,1€ (34-35u)
🍊 21,4€ (27-28u)
🥑 AguaCATS 17,5€ (25-26)
🍓 iFresas 17,1€ (23-24)
🍆 BroColau 8,5€ (9-10)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,4€ (6-7)
🍌 cupNarias 6,1€ (7-8)

http://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/primer-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

They are facing some tough competition from Scottish fruit stands though

Mysterious Scottish fruit shop poll (Feedback for The National) (probably the same tracker as before)

🍊 24,18€ (33u)
🍋 Junquera 20,89€ (30u)
🥑 AguaCATS 19,49€ (28-30u)
🍓 iFresas 13,67€ (17-19u)
🍆 BroColau 7,08€ (8-9u)
🍌 cupNarias 8,28€ (10u)
💧 Lanjalbiol 5,64€ (6u)

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15777408.Stunning_Catalan_poll_predicts_majority_for_pro_independence_parties/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 19, 2017, 04:49:13 AM
Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

Anyways my results were:

PSC: 73%
Cs: 71%
CUP: 69%!
Podemos: 68%
ERC: 63%
PP: 57%
JxCat: 51%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 19, 2017, 08:10:02 AM
Also, El País did some probabilistic model about the Catalan election:

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https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/12/18/ratio/1513610647_109254.html

Basically, it seems like secessionists getting a majority is slighly more likely than not, but basically a coin flip, a left wing majority is quite unlikely and a constitutionalist majority is a pipedream.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 19, 2017, 08:47:17 AM
Found a website which tells you who you should vote for in the next Catalan election.

www.elteuvot.org

This test is bull...t

 My results:

CatComu-Podem 89%
CUP 84%
ERC 83%
PSC 79%
Cs 61%
JxCat 60%
PP 37%

In neither case I'd vote for the CUP or ERC. I could vote for CatComu-Podem or the PSC.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FrancoAgo on December 19, 2017, 12:23:47 PM
My results
Podem 81%
ERC 80%
CUP 78%
PSC 77%
JxC 63%
C's 54%
PP 46%

I could vote for one of first 3, idk enough for choice one


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RodPresident on December 19, 2017, 06:31:57 PM
CeC: 77%
ERC: 75%
CUP: 74%
PSC: 69%
JxC: 61%
C's: 59%
PP: 40%
Probably, I'd vote for CeC-P, but in order to prevent any embarrasments to Podemos, I'd vote to CUP to ensure an majority against C's and P and to push ERC-JxC coalition to left.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2017, 08:11:57 PM
When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 20, 2017, 08:46:25 PM
When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

No exit polls apparently. (http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171214/tv3-tve-no-haran-sondeo-electoral-21d-6495744) Polls close at 8pm (7pm London time). Official results site. (https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/ini09v.htm)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 04:26:54 AM
When does polls close? Any exit polls?  Any links to results ?

Polls close at 8pm Spanish time. (7pm London time, 2pm New York time)

There will be no formal exit polls, but I just saw on TV that there might be some unofficial ones in Twitter or newspapers. Someone from La Vanguardia said they would have some estimation.

As for links to results, Mike88 already posted them

For all what's worth here are the final illegal polls:

()

The one with a graph was done by Netquest for L'independant (apparently a regional French newspaper based in Perpignan). The other 2 were for Andorra and Scotland.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on December 21, 2017, 04:39:16 AM
There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 21, 2017, 05:07:38 AM
There is only one thing to look at: will the independists reach the majority of 68 seats? The polls have been consistently tights, with them getting between 65 and 70 seats, so there is a lot of suspense. I am looking forward to the result!
I wonder how the date of the vote  (on a working day instead of Sunday) will influence the result.


If they lose the popular vote but win a majority of seats then, as in 2015, they can only ask for a referendum. And since they have already gone through that "process", I think they'd have to seriously rethink their strategy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 06:41:56 AM
I think that is likely that pro-independence parties retain majority by the narrowest of margins. In case ERC, JxCat and the CUP get around 45% of the vote, the chances of parliamentary majority are high thanks to malapportionment. Only a massive mobilization in Barcelona and Tarragona metropolitan areas could prevent this. The chances of a 'unionist' or 'constitutionalist' majority -without CatComú-Podem- are virtually non-existent. It's highly unlikely that Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas becomes in the next Catalan premier, because CatComú-Podem will never vote her investiture. However, consider the potentially huge impact in Spanish politics of a Cs victory alongside with the collapse of PP vote in Catalonia. In case of a pro-independence majority, things won't be easy. Consider the increasingly rivalry between ERC and the 'legitimate president' Puigdemont, as well the uncompromising CUP stance on following the unilateral path to independence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 21, 2017, 07:04:44 AM
I'm going to say Secessionists lose a majority by a timy amoumt of seats. This puts Podemos with the awkward choice of either Kingmaking one of two bad options, or a government is formed that reaches across the Secessionist/Unionist line and tries to pretend to ignore the independence question...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 07:10:30 AM
My guess is  secessionists wins majority by a tiny margin which just means continuation of the crisis without end.   I think it will be something like:

CUP:      8
ERC:    33
JxC:     28
CeC:      8
PSC:    19
PP:        6
C's:     33


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 07:44:49 AM
Interesting. It seems like at this time turnout is actually down compared to 2015!

Turnout at 13:00, 2017: 34.62%
Turnout 13:00, 2015: 35.10%

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171221/433795520166/participacion-elecciones-cataluna.html

Then again it might be because most people plan on voting after they end their workday during the afternoon. Remember that 2015 was held on a Sunday while this election is being held on a workday.

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By province, turnout is basically flat in Barcelona, slightly down in Tarragona, slightly up in Lleida and 3 points down in Girona. Idk why Girona isn't flat like the other 3.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 09:57:27 AM
Turnout by municipality at 13;00 CET

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Grafico-dato-participacion-municipio_0_720928465.html

Turnout increased slightly in Metropolitan Barcelona, some places in Tarragona and in the south of Lleida province. Lower turnout in places with a strong pro-independence vote.

It's too early, this election is held on working day instead on Sunday (as usual since 1982), etcetera


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 12:02:43 PM
Turnout at 68.33% at 18:00h. +5.21% compared with 2015.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 12:22:48 PM
Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 12:33:46 PM
Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreases in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.



Right now, only the comarca of Pallars Sobirà has a lower turnout compared with 2015.

With these figures at 18:00h, turnout can easily achieve 80/81% at the end of the day, IMO.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 12:37:39 PM
Turnout by province (2015 un brackets)

Barcelona 68.32% (63.21%)
Girona 68.16% (65.08%)
Lleida 66.54% (61.11%)
Tarragona 66.46% (61.78%)

Turnout decreses in the following comarcas: Berguedà, Moianès, Pallars Sobirà and Alta Ribagorça

Cs was the party most favoured by the turnout increase in the 2015 election

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/aumento-participacion-electoral-beneficio-Cs_0_718828760.html

We'll see how it works this time in the Barcelona Metropolitan region, where Cs and PSC are fighting for the non-nationalist vote.




Seems like the few that have lower turnout are pro-secessionist

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Pallars Sobira: 78% secessionist in 2015
Alta Ribagorça: 58%
Bergueda: 78%
Moianes: 77%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 12:53:04 PM
The turnout statistics are pretty amazing.  Thanks for posting the links.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 01:03:37 PM
Actually it's Pallars Sobirà the only comarca with turnout decrease, as Mike88 said (La Vanguardia said the other three decreased too).

As for the 'unionist' comarcas (I hate that terminology, but anyway)

Barcelonès 68.12% (61.77%)
Baix Llobregat 68.27% (62.15%)
Vallès Occidental 68.86% (63.79%)
Tarragonès 67.44% (61.76%)
Baix Penedès 64.19% (60.16%)
Aran 55.9% (51.09%)

It seems likely that turnout will reach something like 80%.

Keep in mind that pro-independence vote was hyper-movilized in 2015. They will turnout in great numbers this time again. It's only that here's no much room for an increase in separatist strongholds.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 01:08:11 PM
Graphic showing the increase/decrease of turnout by comarca, compared with % of vote for the pro-independence parties in 2015:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:01:54 PM
Ciudadanos Seen Winning Most Seats in Catalan Ballot: 8tv Poll


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:02:18 PM
Catalan Separatists Seen Winning Razor-Thin Majority: 8tv Poll


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 02:05:28 PM
Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)

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Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:05:48 PM
8tv exit poll

CUP:      5-6
ERC:    34-36
JxC:     28-29
CeC:      7-8
PSC:    18-20
PP:        3-5
C's:     34-37


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:06:57 PM
The iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF slipped lower just after polls closed. It's still convincingly higher on the day.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:07:54 PM
The secessionist bloc on at medium of 69 according to exit poll.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 02:08:57 PM
Here's the poll, done by GAD3 for Grupo Godó (La Vanguardia, 8TV and probably a radio station)

()

Worth noting that it is not a proper exit poll. Instead it's just a regular poll, but one that took interviews up until the last possible second. They apparently interviewed people until 1h ago.

Share of vote:

26.0% C's
22.5% ERC
19.0% JxCat
15.0% PSC
  7.0% Comú
  5.0% CUP
  4.5% PP

46.5% Pró-Independence
45.5% Anti-Independence
  7.0% Comú


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:10:52 PM
Looks like PP lost votes to C and CUP lost votes to ERC relative to pre-election polls.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:16:20 PM
GAD3 seem to hedging their bets a bit with these projections. Bottom end of the range for the separatists give them 67 seats - one short of a majority. Top end is 71.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 02:52:42 PM
It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 21, 2017, 03:01:36 PM
It seems the GAD3 polls is an election day telephone poll and not an exit poll.

The last Electipn Day poll I remember claiming to be an exit due to the lack of exits was YouGov's 51-49 remain poll...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 03:06:28 PM
2.25% of the vote is in
Turnout thus far: 81.83%

JxCat 31.40% (43)
ERC 23.16% (33)
Cs: 18.78% (27)
PSC: 10.63% (16)
CUP:  5.57% (7)
ECP: 5.33% (6)
PP: 3.79% (3)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 03:19:23 PM
I know it's still early, Barcelona is only 4% in, but i think JxCat may be doing better than expected. We'll see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 03:26:22 PM
Cs is very strong. Oranges will win, apparently. It's up to see if there's pro-independence majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 03:30:03 PM
Yeah, I agree that JxCat seems like it will have a good night. I wouldn't be surprised if they were the number 1 secessionist force. Also PP seems like it will be completely decimated. They won't drop out of parliament but they'll be lucky if they get 4 seats. They might not even have their own parliamentary group!

11.74% of the vote is now in:

Cs: 24.32% (35)
JxCat: 23.53% (35)
ERC: 21.50% (31)
PSC: 13.75% (18)
ECP: 6.68% (8 )
CUP: 4.51% (5)
PP: 4.17% (3)

Secessionists 71 seats (-1 compared to 2015). Majority of 3


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 03:33:42 PM
Everything points to a big Arrimadas win.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 21, 2017, 03:35:53 PM
Important to note that Barcelona appears to be 7% behind every other state.

Hell, clicking on the city gives me 4% vote counted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 03:41:26 PM
Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BundouYMB on December 21, 2017, 03:44:15 PM
Can someone post a link to the results?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 21, 2017, 03:44:51 PM
Yup, there's barely any vote from Barcelona proper. Keep in mind that the best unionist stronghold isn't the city itself but the suburbs, the "red belt" as it's known (former PSC voting areas). Barcelona city isn't that unionist. They voted 47.2% for secessionists in 2015, compared to 47.8% in all of Catalonia.

Oh yeah, I doubt any unionist bombs are going to be dropping throughout the count - its just that the current count probably is overstating separatist support due to the majority of the count curently coming from rurals.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 21, 2017, 03:45:45 PM
Tarragonia just flipping to C's BTW.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BundouYMB on December 21, 2017, 03:45:58 PM
Can someone post a link to the results?


https://resultats.parlament2017.cat/09AU/DAU09999CM.htm?lang=ca

Thank you.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 03:54:41 PM
35% of the vote is in

JxCat: 22.56% (35)
Cs: 25.03% (34)
ERC: 21.55% (32)
PSC: 13.81% (18)
CatComú: 6.97% (8 )
CUP: 4.37% (5)
PP: 4.15% (3)

Most commenters are saying that secessionists will keep their majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 03:55:25 PM
Looking pretty good for the secessionists


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 04:01:10 PM
The fall of PP to below the seat thresholds in different regions indirectly helps the bigger parties of which 2 of the 3 are  secessionists.  If the entire  Catalonia was one large PR region that would work to help the secessionists less.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 04:10:03 PM
52% in

Cs: 25.29% (35)
JxCat: 22.19% (34)
ERC: 21.84% (32)
PSC: 13.83% (18)
CUP: 4.35% (4)
PP: 4.17% (4)

From the few changes seems like there's a PP-JxCat swing in Tarragona and another one between Cs and ERC somewhere else.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 04:15:05 PM
What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 04:21:12 PM
What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 04:25:47 PM
What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.
I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 04:32:37 PM
What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.

Technically speaking it's not because of D'Hondt, but because of malapportionment. Barcelona has less seats than it would be fairly entitled to. Lleida's votes are worth twice as much as Barcelona's. In theory well apportioned seats (or better yet, only one at-large constituency) would yield proportional results even with D'Hondt

Though to be fair Catalonia is far from the worst offender in this regard. If you want to look at bad regional elections in Spain, check out the Canary Islands (where the 3rd voted party gets the most seats and 0.6% gives you 3 seats but 5.9% gives you none) or Castille-La Mancha (where 8.5% of the vote gives you 0 seats)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2017, 04:38:42 PM
What a mess these results. C's will have a massive lead in the popular vote, but could have fewer seats than JxCat. Plus, the independence parties are poised to have the same total vote they had in 2015: 47%.

It seems that is related to the d'hondt method rewarding the larger parties and despite its large vote share C is poor 3rd place in 2 of the 4 regions.
I know. Here in Portugal we also had weird results because of the d'hondt method, but the problem is that after all the fuss, nothing changed basically. If JxCat holds it's second place, it will be interesting to see the reaction of ERC.

It's the malapportinonment, not the D'Hondt system.

Lleida, Girona and Tarragona are overrepresented. On the other hand, Barcelona has 73% of the population and elects 63% of the seats. With electoral districts ranging between 15 and 85 seats, the D'Hondt system is very proportional. It rewards major parties when electoral districts elect a little number of seats, as it happens in the Spanish general elections with a many provinces electing less than 6 seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 04:42:30 PM
Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 21, 2017, 04:47:27 PM
PSC can still take a seat off of JxC in Barcelona.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 21, 2017, 04:55:25 PM
Secessionists down to 69 seats now ..

I'm still seeing 70 - 34 JUNT, 32 - ERC, 4 -CUP. Is it a end result projection?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 05:03:03 PM
^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 05:03:50 PM
I think D'Hondt plays a large role due to the larger party bonus effect.  If we view  Catalonia as one large district the seat distribution would be

            Current      If one large PR region
C's:          36                      35
JxC:         34                      30
ERC:        32                      30
PSC:        17                      19
CeC:         8                       10
CUP:         4                         6
PP:           4                         5

JxC  ERC over performance is more at the expense of smaller parties


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 21, 2017, 05:09:08 PM
Caudillo Albiol almost in tears. Some Clown DJ at the ANC headquarters. This is gunna be a fun night.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 05:09:22 PM
^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

They can do this despite the fact that their platforms are polar opposites of each other ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 05:11:20 PM
^
No, it seems that in the mean time JxCat took back a seat from PSC (who is now at 17)

Also, an interesting side effect of this elections is that PP and CUP will have to share a joint parliamentary group. Neither has enough seats for an individual parliamentary group (they'd need 5), so they'll both go to the mixed group.

That basically means that they'll have to share their talking time, their seats in commitees, etc.

They can do this despite the fact that their platforms are polar opposites of each other ?

It's not a matter of whether they can or not. It's simply what the rules of the Catalan parliament say. For reference in the national congress you have both Bildu (Basque secessionists) as well as UPN (anti Basque Navarra party, contests elections with PP) in the mixed group, who are also polar opposites.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 05:11:54 PM
Also here's a map by municipality

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/elecciones/20171221/433800521201/mapa-resultados-elecciones-catalanas-21d.html

JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 05:22:07 PM
Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 05:38:33 PM
Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

No idea, but I don't think so. Then again during the campaign he did promise that if he was reelected he would return to Catalonia and become president again.

Come to think about it, that's actually a good plot for a movie. Puigdemont tries to sneak into the Catalan parliament and not be noticed by the Spanish police. If Puigdemont somehow didn't get arrested on his way to Spain (I guess he could cross the border by car inside the trunk or something, as though he was being smuggled) and get into parliament it would be an incredibly powerful move of defiance.

And the images of the Guardia Civil entering a parliament would probably be extemely reminiscent of the 1981 coup (performed by Guardia Civil Coronel Antonio Tejero), which would add even more fuel to the fire.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 05:41:31 PM
Pretty amazing that after all that the secessionists only lost 2 seats from 2015.  I guess it is back to stalemate.  Can Puigdemont run for and be appointed  President remotely ?

No idea, but I don't think so. Then again during the campaign he did promise that if he was reelected he would return to Catalonia and become president again.

Come to think about it, that's actually a good plot for a movie. Puigdemont tries to sneak into the Catalan parliament and not be noticed by the Spanish police. If Puigdemont somehow didn't get arrested on his way to Spain (I guess he could cross the border by car inside the trunk or something, as though he was being smuggled) and get into parliament it would be an incredibly powerful move of defiance.

And the images of the Guardia Civil entering a parliament would probably be extemely reminiscent of the 1981 coup (performed by Guardia Civil Coronel Antonio Tejero), which would add even more fuel to the fire.

This used to happen in India all the time.  The idea is that a MP or MLA is immune from prosecution.  So criminals/bandits would run for MLA and MP seats and many times would win.  Then on the day they will be sworn in the police know they will need to show up at the Legislative assembly and wait outside to arrest them.  The MP or MLA elect would need to sneak past the police, get sworn in, and then the police can no longer arrest them. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: petr sokol on December 21, 2017, 05:42:30 PM
Why is ERC party of the south and JxCat of the north?

Also here's a map by municipality



JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 21, 2017, 05:47:36 PM
PP have lost a seat to Cs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 05:48:43 PM
Why is ERC party of the south and JxCat of the north?

Also here's a map by municipality



JxCat wins most of the interior, Cs wins the coastal towns and the Barcelona and Tarragona metro areas. ERC wins mostly the south. PSC wins 2 municipalities in Aran with really tiny populations (15 and 10 voters for PSC; 60 and 43 voters respectively)



No idea. My guess is that Tarragona province is more left wing than Lleida/Girona, but also that the southern part is secessionist. But looking at other results (like the 2016 general election) it seems like that area, while it voted for ERC, it didn't do so overwhelmingly for the most part.

Another idea is that Puigdemont is from Girona province, so he did get a noticable "home state" effect there. But that doesn't explain why almost all of rural inland Catalonia voted for him.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 05:48:59 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 05:51:49 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 05:55:37 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 21, 2017, 06:03:42 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Technically yes, Catalonia uses the same law Spain uses for general elections except for the seat distribution (which comes from a decree from Josep Tarradellas intended for the first regional elections in 1980).

However it's of little relevance to be honest. There are some other communities with systems that are extremely similar. Castille-Leon for example does technically have its own election law, but it's basically the same as if it didn't have it as it has the same characteristics as the general election/Catalonia law (3% theshold, province sized constituencies)

Iirc they'd need 2/3 for a new one to be drafted but no one has been able to do get the required majority.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 21, 2017, 06:08:03 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Technically yes, Catalonia uses the same law Spain uses for general elections except for the seat distribution (which comes from a decree from Josep Tarradellas intended for the first regional elections in 1980).

However it's of little relevance to be honest. There are some other communities with systems that are extremely similar. Castille-Leon for example does technically have its own election law, but it's basically the same as if it didn't have it as it has the same characteristics as the general election/Catalonia law (3% theshold, province sized constituencies)

Iirc they'd need 2/3 for a new one to be drafted but no one has been able to do get the required majority.


Of course. And a change in the law, like Arrimadas asked in her speech, is impossible because ERC and JxCat will not change a system that clearly benefits them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy on December 21, 2017, 11:33:51 PM
()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 22, 2017, 04:45:06 AM
Ugh, great, just great.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on December 22, 2017, 05:23:10 AM
Haha, this changes everything! /s


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 22, 2017, 05:36:14 AM
My Elteuvot result:

CeC-Podemos: 63%
CUP: 63%
ERC: 62%
JxCat: 55%
PSC: 55%
Cs: 51%
PP: 46%

Would probably have voted for CeC-Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on December 22, 2017, 05:51:39 AM
8 of the newly elected MPs are in jail or will be jailed if they come back to Spain (all independentists). I am not sure if they can plan any role in the Parliament without being physically present.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2017, 07:18:13 AM
Puigdemont: “I’m willing to meet with Rajoy in Brussels or somewhere else in the European Union other than Spain, because we have to consider the new political stage that starts in Catalonia, Spain and Europe."


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on December 22, 2017, 07:51:27 AM
Results by city:
http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/cataluna/2017/12/21/5a3bbcd7468aeb2b4a8b45af.html

You can select "bloques" or "partidos" to see which bloc (independentist vs constitutionalist) or which party arrived first in each city



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 22, 2017, 12:41:11 PM
Reactions after the results:

Rajoy refuses to call early general elections and is willing to talk with the future Catalan government within the law. (https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/12/22/actualidad/1513945069_670002.html) At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia. (http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171222/433815595515/jorge-moragas.html)

Rajoy also refused the proposed talks with Puigdemont, and will talk with the leader of the most voted party, Inés Arrimadas.

From Portugal, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, calls for a responsible and democratic dialogue that helps to form a stable government in Catalonia, that preserves Spain's sovereignty and that respects the rights and freedoms of the citizens. (http://www.cmjornal.pt/cm-ao-minuto/detalhe/catalunha-governo-portugues-apela-a-empenho-num-dialogo-responsavel-e-democratico?ref=Bloco_CMAoMinuto)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 22, 2017, 01:04:33 PM
Reactions after the results:

At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia. (http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171222/433815595515/jorge-moragas.html)

Apparently Jorge Moragas agreed with Rajoy to resign his post after the Catalan elections, in order to become the next Ambassador to the United Nations. According to the news Moragas decoupled his decision (prior to elections) to the result.

Puigdemont told something interesting to his JxCat colleagues. The deposed president spoke in somewhat rude language, but roughly translated his sentence means "Spain has a terrible mess"

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171222/puigdemont-espana-tiene-pollo-cojones-6512922


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 22, 2017, 01:29:25 PM
Reactions after the results:

At the same time, Mr Rajoy's chief of staff, Jorge Moragas, resigned because of the results in Catalonia. (http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20171222/433815595515/jorge-moragas.html)

Apparently Jorge Moragas agreed with Rajoy to resign his post after the Catalan elections, in order to become the next Ambassador to the United Nations. According to the news Moragas decoupled his decision (prior to elections) to the result.

Puigdemont told something interesting to his JxCat colleagues. The deposed president spoke in somewhat rude language, but roughly translated his sentence means "Spain has a terrible mess"

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20171222/puigdemont-espana-tiene-pollo-cojones-6512922
Ahh. Wasn't aware that he was going to the UN. I don't get why Puigdemont said that. Yes, Spain may be a mess, but has he looked himself in the mirror? God!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2017, 10:01:08 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/spanish-court-extradition-121-taiwanese-china-51815552

Spanish court allows extradition of 121 Taiwanese to China

Funny news since it relates to my home Chinese Province of Taiwan.  Spainish courts decided to extradite 121 ROC nationals to the PRC regime.  The defendants claimed that "Taiwan is not a part of China" but the Spanish courts ruled  :

"The international community, except for those countries with which (Taiwan) has diplomatic relations, consider Taiwan to be part of China and take the view that its independence cannot be achieved unilaterally"

Pretty funny in light of the  Catalonia crisis. 

I guess in the Taiwan Province context I am the equivalent of Cs (and most even more extreme then that as I would support PRC military action to stop Taiwan Independence.)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 22, 2017, 11:11:28 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 23, 2017, 05:46:39 AM
Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RodPresident on December 23, 2017, 02:41:57 PM
Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1
It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RodPresident on December 23, 2017, 02:54:55 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)
But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 23, 2017, 03:05:32 PM
Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1
It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

I think La Barceloneta swinging to ERC shows that the votes that some the CeC and Colau lost in this election went towards independence after the way Rajoy reacted. Barceloneta is still considered a more "Catalanist" district though. That would also explain how the actual number of votes for pro-independence parties increased, that and an increased turnout in rural areas for JxC for some reason.

I think a Spanish person will answer your second question better but I would hypothesise Barceloneta and Barcelona in general voted for Colau for reasons much more local than the separatist issue (tourism, social housing, housing speculation prices), and that being indepe or not was pretty irrelevant.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on December 23, 2017, 03:12:24 PM
Quote from: RodPresident link=topic=205125.msg5972742#msg5972742
It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land...
Why? From what I see it has a strong identity compatible with independetism. Also interesting to see that the Raval is the only district in the centre that put Cs in first position. Possible interpretation is that immigrants do not support independence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 23, 2017, 04:45:37 PM
I don't know how this will end, seriously.  :(

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.
From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)
But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.

While this is true, I think PP and Cs are more genuinely centralist than strategically so.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 23, 2017, 06:02:55 PM
Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1
It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 24, 2017, 02:20:02 PM
Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.

La Barceloneta is a popular neighbourhood with 'catalanist' leanings, not so different in that regard from neighbourhoods like Poble Nou and El Poble Sec. The best places for ERC in Barcelona fit this typology -they are mostly former villages annexed to Barcelona: Gràcia, Sants or Camp de l'Arpa. JxCat won in middle and upper-middle class neighbourhoods like Eixample or Sarrià. Cs performed astonishingly well in upper-class Pedralbes (above 50% in some precincts), as well in the poor Nou Barris and other impoverished peripheral neighbourhoods.

Local elections are different from general and regional elections and Catalans have a marked tendency to vote different parties depending on the election. Anyway I think that the bad result of CatComú-Podem evidently weakens Ada Colau.

Barcelona is not governed by Podemos and Ada Colau is not a Podemos member. The ruling force is Barcelona en Comú, the Ada Colau party. The BComú list incorporated people from ICV and Podem. Catalunya en Comú is the regional expansion of Colau's party; it's also the merger of BComú, ICV and EUiA (IU). The opposition of the former Podem leadership prevented the merger of that party into CatComú, so it was arranged a coalition between CatComú and Podem in the last minute.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 26, 2017, 11:00:40 AM
Apparently #Tabarnia is now trending topic in Spain. It refers to a hypothetical secession of the unionist areas of Catalonia, leaving a "Republic of Catalonia" with only the rural areas.

()

Commenting it just because it's funny, but the movement exists since 2013 and hasn't gone anywhere and I don't expect it to.

Decided to check the requirements and they'd need the support of the unelected provincial governments of Tarragona and Barcelona as well as 2/3 of all municipalities (many tiny seccessionist villages of 500 people) representing 50%+1 of all inhabitants in both provinces.

Either that or redrawing the map of provinces, something that was last done in 1927!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FrancoAgo on December 26, 2017, 12:16:39 PM
Tabarnia is too large comparating to this cart http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/cataluna/2017/12/21/5a3bbcd7468aeb2b4a8b45af.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 26, 2017, 12:57:05 PM
I think they are using the Comarcas instead. This map is from the 2015 election but I guess it works for this one as well:

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 27, 2017, 03:01:15 PM
In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on December 27, 2017, 07:38:09 PM
In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on December 27, 2017, 08:00:39 PM
In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

Tabernia is not a serious political project, its a demonstration* that some political entrepreneurs believe in one set of legal and moral norms for a specific nation or identity tied to a nation, and another set for another people with a distinct identity of their own.

See also : The Brussels Periphery.


*by a group with links to Societat Civil Catalana, but thats another matter.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2017, 02:33:43 PM
"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tintrlvr on December 28, 2017, 05:04:05 PM
"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 

Fair enough, but the point being that "Tabarnia" doesn't want independence/separation from Catalonia (and would be unhappy with that result) regardless of how it votes on Catalan independence, so it's a meaningless comparison devoid of substance.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2017, 05:41:23 PM
Again: "Tabarnia" is a joke. In real life Barcelona and Tarragona don't want to leave Catalonia, but the point of this joke is that in a parallel universe there' s a separatist movement claiming that they are under the oppresion of rural Catalonia. They repeat point by point all the arguments of Catalan separatists (Spain is an oppresive state, steals our money, etcetera), but replacing "Spain" by "Catalonia". In the parallel universe in which Tabarnia is real, the comparison is meaningful.

(I can't believe this wisecrack needs an explanation)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 29, 2017, 07:56:48 AM
By the way, we have our first poll after the catalan election (technically done before it, between 7-14 of December, but whatever) and it predicts a 3 way tie!

Simple Lógica

PP 24.8%
PSOE 23.8%
Cs 22.8%
UP 16,3%
Others 12.3%

Approval ratings:

()

http://simplelogica.com/iop/iop17017_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Considering that this was done before the Catalan election, I wonder, if Cs will somehow replace PP as the main right wing force. I seriously doubt it but it's an interesting possibility.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 29, 2017, 08:33:07 AM
:( my boy Sanchez is hated by the people


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 29, 2017, 01:14:38 PM
Tack, do you think Cs will remain this strong going into the next election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 29, 2017, 01:40:04 PM
It's definitely way too early to tell. Remember that 1-2 months before the 2015 election Cs was also polling incredibly well and in the end they came in a distant 4th. Podemos was also polling extremely well in late 2014 and early 2015 (they even took the lead in several polls!) before falling hard.

Now, some of Cs drop can be attributed to a bad 2015 campaign on their part while Podemos ran a very good campaign. But still, things changed a lot in 2 months. The next election, is most likely 2 years or so ahead. Things can change a lot in that time.

If Cs plays their cards right, stops the "voting PP is the only useful vote" campaign and the like they might have a shot but it's hard. They generally poll well when the catalan separatist movement is the most important issue.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on December 29, 2017, 03:05:46 PM
Ok thank you!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on January 02, 2018, 08:11:29 AM
La Razon reports poll

()

Which has (diff from 2016 election)

PP        30.0 (-3.0)
PSOE    23.8 (+1.2)
UP        16.1 (-5.1)
C         18.8 (+5.7)

C a bit lower than some of the other polls in Nov and Dec


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 06, 2018, 08:34:08 AM
Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1
It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

Just to revive this question, here is a poll showing ERC overtaking Colau in municipal elections.

https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/948879979844112384/photo/1


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 06, 2018, 09:10:02 AM
Worth noting that that poll is just raw voting intention without any kind of adjustments. It's just the results of asking people who they'll vote for.

Though it's still bad news for Colau, who seems to be losing votes to the secessionist ERC. It's also very bad news for PP, which seems like they'll miss the 5% threshold and lose all representatives.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on January 06, 2018, 05:57:23 PM
SocioMétrica/El Español poll: (https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20180106/nunca-triple-empate-cs-dispara-pp-psoe/274973129_0.html) (Projected seats in parentheses)

24.1% PP (97)
23.9% C's (86)
22.5% PSOE (89)
16.2% UP (49)
  3.5% ERC (13)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.7% Vox (1)
  1.1% PNV (6)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.5% CC (1)
  3.9% Others

75.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 22 and 29 December. Polled 1,000 voters.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 06, 2018, 06:24:45 PM
Wow, so Prime Minister Albert Rivera is actually a realistic possibility! Also, according to this poll, 3 coalitions would be possible:

PP+Cs
PP+PSOE
PSOE+Cs+CC

So anything would work really.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 06, 2018, 07:20:01 PM
LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 06, 2018, 07:37:13 PM
LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 06, 2018, 07:48:04 PM

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

This is the first time I have heard anything about this, but with the way polling is going it could be favorable to the PP/C's coalition. I would assume Rajoy would love to shed the chaotic working agreement that has been in place since 2015/16. So - what are the chances of such a scenario? One would assume that the catalan issue would be the big topic - at least at the start, so PP/C's would have a favorable playing field.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 06, 2018, 08:11:03 PM
Well, an early election is a very real possibility. PNV doesn't really want to pass the 2018 budget (which is already late by the way, thankfully we don't get a government shutdown in that case XD) because of how PP has handled Catalonia.

I personally think PNV will pass the budget in the end but if they don't that would be a very good excuse to call an early election.

If there's an early election yes, PP/Cs will be very favoured.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on January 06, 2018, 08:17:06 PM
Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 06, 2018, 08:42:10 PM
LET’S GO RIVERA!!!!!

Also, is it basically a guarantee that Vox gets a seat?

No, it's far from guaranteed in fact. This pollster is the only one that has seen them getting a seat though in their defense they are also the only ones polling VOX instead of just throwing them into "others".

In theory extrapolating from their 2014 EU parliament result they should be getting a seat with 1.5-1.6% of the vote nationally (they need 3% in Madrid). In 2014 with 1.6% they got 3.2% in Madrid. That would have given them 1 seat.

IMO if VOX gets a seat in the 2019 EU elections, they'll probably get at least one in the national election in 2020 (assuming Rajoy doesn't call a snap election this year). Same goes for PACMA or any other small party.

I thought I saw an earlier poll on Wikipedia that also gave them a seat


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 06, 2018, 08:43:29 PM
Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 06, 2018, 08:47:15 PM
Any chance of a vote of no confidence if Rajoy doesn't call a snap election? It doesn't seem Unidos Podemos and PSOE are in very good shape to face such an election.

I don't think so. There are only 2 possibilities for a successful no confidence vote:

PSOE somehow becomes open to a referendum or ERC and PDECat stop caring about independence a no confidence vote is impossible. The only viable majority would be:

PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV.

The only alternative would be for Cs to break with PP and accept a PSOE-Cs-Podemos government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 06, 2018, 08:51:36 PM
Yeah, but that one is from the same pollster (Sociométrica-El Español), just an older poll.

Ah, ok.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 09, 2018, 05:28:50 AM
Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es poll

PP: 29.8% (123-128)
PSOE: 25.1% (92-96)
Cs: 18.6% (54-59)
Podemos: 16.9% (49-54)
Pacma: 1.2% (0)
Others: 1.6% (0)

ERC: 2.5% (9-10)
PDECat: 1.7% (6-7)
PNV: 1.2% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PP+Cs get a majority even in the lower end, PSOE+Cs and PSOE+Podemos short of one in all cases.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 09, 2018, 05:22:29 PM
Also, today fmr. regional president of Catalonia Artur Mas has resigned as party president of PDECat. Apparently his resignation has serveral reasons:

-Puidemont's presidential style campaign (centered on him, not the party) has been extremely successful and he doesn't want to get on the way of his expansion

-His campaign also included more defiance to the Spanish government while Mas apparently wanted moderation and doesn't think that independence can be declared with 47% of the vote. Now that Puigdemont has been successful with a radical campaign he can't try and make Puigdemont more moderate.

-The "Caso Palau" corruption case involving CDC under Mas is about to say whether they are innocent or guilty so Mas is resigning to avoid further damage.

Also, apparently PDECat will contest the 2019 local elections as Junts x Catalunya, the brand used by Puigdemont's campaign.

Finally, worry about Catalonia's independence has dropped by 12% over the last 2 months, after article 155 was activated. It is now the 5th largest worry at 16.9%, behind unemployment (66.8%), corruption (31.7%), politics and politicians (28.5%) and the economy (22.5%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 12, 2018, 07:22:00 AM
And Cs gest it's first polling lead in its history!

El País-Metroscopia

()

With those percentages, both Cs-PSOE and Cs-PP become viable choices. I wonder now if Cs will just stop supporting Rajoy, essencially forcing him to call a snap election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 12, 2018, 07:24:18 AM
WOOHOOOOO!!!!!

Seriously though, barring a snap election (and maybe even then), their polling lead will probably shrink significantly by the next election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on January 12, 2018, 12:41:46 PM
This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: NatAl on January 12, 2018, 01:10:10 PM
Citizens lost votes in 2016 for agreeing with the PSOE, Albert should be an imbecile not to realize that his votes are former voters pp, his anti-Catalan discourse is in line with them and totally against what the Spanish left defends. I hope that in the future, citizens will turn more to the right.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2018, 05:12:04 PM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 12, 2018, 05:47:09 PM
This is amazing! Could a C's government actually happen?

With those numbers? Sure.

The electoral system is actually slightly rigged against Cs since they have a mostly urban base and spread out base while the system benefits rural areas and parties with a concentrated base, but not rigged enough to throw away a 4 point win. With those numbers and with an even swing from 2015 they'd get 100 seats, compared to PSOE's 85 and PP's 97.

So the Cs-PP gap is only of 3 seats while for a 4 point win you'd historically expect more like a 15-17 seat gap (like 2008 or 1993)

Whether you think Cs can actually not just come close to PP/PSOE, but overtake them and win the popular vote by a significant margin is a whole other story though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 12, 2018, 05:51:45 PM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: NatAl on January 12, 2018, 07:52:57 PM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

Cs has embraced the flag to win votes and that's good, but inevitably they will turn right, you can not pretend to stay with conservative pp voters without being tougher than them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on January 12, 2018, 08:33:35 PM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?

How is Cs an "ethnic nationalist" party? They've adopted harsher rethoric against peripheral nationalisms but that's it. I don't think they are worse than say, the 00s PP, which collected signatures against the Catalan estatut.

Or the old UPyD, which actually did have in it's manifesto to take away some devolved powers (most notably healthcare and education) and give them back to the central government.

If it were VOX we were talking about (or God forbid, some of the tiny fascist parties like say, Falange, aka Franco's party) then sure. But Cs is just another liberal party with harsh rethoric against peripheral nationalism like UPyD.

Which is a wordy way of saying "castillan nationalism".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on January 13, 2018, 12:16:38 AM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on January 13, 2018, 08:21:37 AM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

Why would any country want to copy plutocratic En Marche, Jenkinsite?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 13, 2018, 08:24:16 AM
Cs is nothing close to an “ethnic nationalist” party. Was the Republican Party ethnic nationalist during the Civil War for opposing the South seceding? Of course not. Both areas had different ways of life, but in the end, they were, as Catalonia and all other regions are, united by a common nation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 13, 2018, 10:09:56 AM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

ROFLMAO

Cs is nothing close to an “ethnic nationalist” party.


On election night, Cs supporters meeting at the Hotel Catalonia couldn't contain their enthusiasm and shouted (intoxicated by victory): "¡Yo soy Español, Español, Español!"

Neither Spanish nationalism nor Catalan separatism can be termed as "ethnic", in my opinion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 13, 2018, 10:29:51 AM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

Susana Diaz? The southern barons of the PSOE really aren't the Centrists you crave...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 13, 2018, 03:07:15 PM
Why so much cheering for a ethnic-nationalist party?
Because Podemos, PSOE not under Susana Diaz, and PP suck. Also, I see a glimmer of hope for an Iberian En Marche!

En Marche can only exist in a (semi-)Presidentialist system where one candidate has the initials EM.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on January 14, 2018, 08:02:12 PM
The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (http://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-ciudadanos-ganaria-elecciones-generales-mas-seis-millones-votos-encuesta-gad3-abc-20180114233802.html) (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 14, 2018, 09:01:32 PM
The trend continues...

GAD3/ABC poll: (http://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-ciudadanos-ganaria-elecciones-generales-mas-seis-millones-votos-encuesta-gad3-abc-20180114233802.html) (projected seats in parentheses)

26.2% C's (86/90)
24.7% PP (97/101)
24.2% PSOE (93/97)
14.7% UP (42/44)
  2.9% ERC (10/11)
  1.9% PDC (6)
  1.3% PNV (7)
  0.7% Bildu (2)
  0.3% CC (0/1)
  3.1% Others

71.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 January 2018.

Well, thats a working majority for any coalition between the big two - now three I guess.

Now I really want to see this chaotic government fall, and get new elections...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 14, 2018, 09:29:02 PM
Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 15, 2018, 03:54:07 AM
Interesting that Cs might win the popular vote but come in third in terms of seats!

Seems like UCD's "gerrymander" is still working. Interestingly Cs might be the closest to the old UCD, so it has backfired 40 years later!

Didn't C's say just after the result that they would only govern if electoral reform is on the table? I imagine this is what they will want implemented in the new constitutional reforms regardless, but if they end up with that result in that electoral system they will only have themselves to blame. Just as the LibDems have themselves to blame for the AV vote going to a referendum in UK.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 15, 2018, 05:39:42 AM
Electoral reform is one of those things that everyone claims to be in favour but never happens in the end. Though Cs should press PP and tell them they'll vote against the budget if no reforms are passed.

The thing is that except for limited reforms (like say, bringing the number of MPs up to 400 and/or reducing the minimum amount of seats per province from 2 to 1), you need to reform the constitution as that specifies several key things:

The electoral constituencies must be the provinces of Spain
The results in each constituency shall be allocated in a proportional manner
The seat allocation shall be done in a proportional manner, but there must be a minimum of seats per province which shall be specified in law

And PSOE's constitutional reform commision isn't going exactly well. A few days ago the few remaining "founding fathers" that were still alive (2 from UCD, 1 from the "Catalan minority", ie CiU) weren't exactly in favour

Interestingly it's not the only electoral reform that isn't going well. All groups in opposition in the Canary Islands (PP, PSOE, Podemos, NC) agreed to do a limited electoral reform. Parliament increases from 60 to 70, 1 extra seat would go to Fuerteventura and the other 9 would go to an at-large constituency and allocated to make results more proportional. Also thresholds are lowered from 6% in the archipielago/30% on a single island to half of that (3%/15%)

However if CC doesn't approve I don't think it¡s possible. Apparently electoral reform needs either a 2/3 majority (CC+ASG, the big winners have that) or a reform of the estatuto (currently being debated in the Congress of Deputies, but electoral reform is precisely the largest obstacle. In fact it already stopped it in 2007!)

Electoral reforms are also being debated in Castille-La Mancha (with the highest threshold, a de facto 8% threshold!) and Andalucia (where Cs is in coalition with PSOE, but PSOE doesn't want reforms), but neither has been passed yet.

I think only Murcia has done electoral reform because of Cs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 19, 2018, 08:07:14 AM
And PP falls to the third place! Also Podemos apparently recovers.

Simple Lógica poll

()

()

Approval ratings:

()

Interestingly, Iglesias is under water even among Podemos voters (-6) and Sánchez is only barely above among PSOE voters (+5).

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop18002_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

In other news, the first meeting of the Catalan parliament has happened and they elected a secessionist speaker by 65-56 (9 blank, 8 from Podemos and an unknown one, most likely from PSC). The regional MPs that were in jail were allowed to tell someone from their party who they wanted to vote for and have them vote in their name. The ones in Brussels didn't though.

And it's unclear if Puigdemont will be allowed to be elected remotely. The Spanish government has already said that they'll keep article 155 if he is reelected remotely as that goes against the Catalan parliament's rules, and will send it to court. ERC and CUP aren't exactly happy about having to put Puigdemont either.

A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on January 19, 2018, 08:37:31 AM
A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2018, 09:54:40 AM
A possibility that has been floated is for Puigdemont to not be reelected, like Mas in 2015; and instead just run for the EU parliament next year. That way he won't need to leave Brussels.

He's gotten the glorious taste of campaigning for the N-VA in Leuven for example, over "how to kick out the socialists" from the town hall.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/01/05/puigdemont-komt-spreken-bij-n-va-leuven--over-hoe-socialistische/

I imagine he misses the weather though.

How lovely.

Certainly the main victims of the 'process' have been the catalan socialists and the Spanish left in general. Artur Mas wanted to prevent another leftist government in Catalonia and in that regard he succeed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 23, 2018, 08:04:47 AM
Not sure if I should post it here but since there isn't any EP election thread just yet since it's too far away, whatever.

http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2018/01/23/5a670fd422601da16d8b45e3.html

Spain will apparently get 5 more seats in the EU parliament in 2019, going up from 54 to 59. This is the largest amount of Spanish seats since 1999 (64 seats).

Since Spain uses a purely proportional system, 1 at-large constituency and no threshold, this will benefit small parties like VOX or PACMA. I wouldn't be surprised if they both get in. In fact, VOX would already have an MEP if Spain had had 59 seats in 2014

The 2014 results would have been:

PP: 18 (+2)
PSOE 16 (+2)
IU: 6
UPyD 4
Podemos 5
CEU (CC+PNV+CiU): 3
ERC 2
Cs 2
LPD (Bildu+BNG) 1
PE (Equo+Compromís) 1
VOX 1 (+1)

The 5 extra seats go to PP, PSOE and VOX.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 23, 2018, 09:15:52 AM
I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 23, 2018, 10:52:45 AM
I would've thought that UPyD would've crumbled as Cs grew, but they're doing pretty well.

It's not a poll or anything like that though. It's just the 2014 result but with 59 seats instead of 54. Obviously nowadays UPyD would be extremely lucky to even hold 1 seat (one of their MEPs, Maite Pagazartundua, is somewhat famous for MEP standards though I doubt she'll hold her seat) and Cs would grow a lot.

I guess UPyD's closest comparison here might be CDS (another centrist party, the spiritual successor to UCD) in the 1994 EP elections, when the party had almost completely disappeared and everyone relevant had left but their candidate (Eduard Punset, later famous for his documentaries) was still somewhat famous. They got 1%, not enough to get a seat but still a very good showing.

I did not expect PP and PSOE to both grow by 2 though, I thought the new seats would be allocated in a more egalitarian fashion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on January 23, 2018, 01:07:52 PM
Ah ok. Thanks!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 28, 2018, 10:24:47 AM
And Cs slowly but surely keeps rising. Podemos is also very slowly recovering while PP is on free fall

Invymark-La Sexta poll

PP: 26,1%
Cs: 23,4%
PSOE: 23,0%
UP: 16.2%
Others: 11.3%

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.68
Pedro Sánchez: 4,28
Albert Rivera: 4.45
Pablo Iglesias: 2.78

http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/baro-voto_201801285a6de0c80cf2717a3c2f8893.html

Also some regional polling. I guess we'll see more of these next year when the regonal elections are actually imminent

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections (30 for a majority)

()

()

MES are left wing nationalists and I think open to hypothetical unification with Catalonia, El PI are right wing nationalists and probably opposed on that but favourable to more decentralization. They are the successor to Unió Mallorquina, which was arguably the most corrupt party in Spanish history relative to their size.

So the left wing majority basically evaporates and it would be too close to call. However unlike in other regions PI might not automatically join with PP and Cs. In fact the Balearic Islands have already seen "everyone against PP" coalitions, like in 1999 and 2007. I still think if the left loses its majority the most likely scenario is PP-Cs-PI but it's not guaranteed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 02, 2018, 07:16:28 AM
Seeing as Iglesias is so unpopular, could he be ousted or persuaded to move on? Is Errejon still part of the party?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2018, 10:22:57 AM
Ada Colau, Barcelona's mayor, has lost a confidence vote and challenges the opposition to present an alternative government and Mayor. (http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2018/02/02/5a7442d4468aeb550b8b4795.html)

What are the chances of the PDeCAT/C's/PP/PSC opposition of supporting an alternative candidate?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 02, 2018, 12:18:44 PM
Very slim. The current distribution in Barcelona's town hall is (21 councillors for an overall majority):


En Comú 11
CiU 10
Cs 5
ERC 5
PSC 4
PP 3
CUP 3

However I seriously doubt that a CiU-Cs-PP-PSC no confidence vote would work. CiU is radically different to the 3 others on the independence stuff (which was part of the reason why PSC and Podemos broke up in Barcelona) and PSC wouldn't support such a right wing government.

I guess Colau will stay for now but each time she seems like she will have a tougher time being reelected. I wouldn't be surprised if she was defeated. And that's considering that Barcelona is one of the safest towns for Podemos and that their next rival on the left (ERC) has half their seats!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 03, 2018, 11:09:38 AM
Seeing as Iglesias is so unpopular, could he be ousted or persuaded to move on? Is Errejon still part of the party?

Errejón is still part of the party, but it seems he'll just run for regional president in Madrid and has been out of the spotlight for a while. In fact I think Iglesias has basically taken out anyone who could contest his leadership.

I think all 4 main party leaders (Rajoy, Sánchez, Iglesias, Rivera) will all make it to the next general election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 05, 2018, 02:23:05 PM
Well, here's the latest poll. If someone cares it also has other questions (like whether Spain should be more or less centralized or what worries Spaniards the most) and some crosstabs (by age, party and a couple others). It's generally considered the most complete poll:

CIS poll

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2018/Documentacion_3203.html

PP: 26.3%
PSOE: 23.1%
Cs: 20.7%
UP: 19.0%

ERC: 3.4%
PDECat: 2%
PNV: 1.2%
Bildu: 0.8%
CC: 0.2%
Others: 1.8%

Approval ratings for politicians (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 2.87
Pedro Sánchez: 3.68
Albert Rivera: 4.01
Pablo Iglesias: 2.54
Alberto Garzón: 3.67

Íñigo Alli (UPN): 2.75
Joan Baldoví (Compromís): 3.94
Marian Beitialarrangoitia (Bildu): 3.05
Carles Campuzano (PDECat): 3.17
Yolanda Díaz (En Marea): 3.32
Xavier Domenezh (En Comú Podem): 3.53
Aitor Esteban (PNV): 3.50
Isidro Martinez Oblanca (Foro Asturias): 2.38
Ana Oramas (CC): 3.77
Pedro Quevedo (NCa): 3.23
Joan Tardà (ERC): 2.71

Approval ratings for the cabinet

Fátima Bañez (Employment): 2.9
Rafael Catalá (Justice): 2.81
Maria Dolores de Cospedal (Defense): 2.93
Alfonso Dastis (Foreign affairs): 2.71
Isabel García Tejerina (Agriculture): 3.27
Luis de Guindos (Economy): 2.98
Íñigo Méndez de Vigo (Education, Government speaker): 3.03
Cristobal Montoro (Treasury): 2.33
Dolors Monserrat (Healthcare): 2.87
Álvaro Nadal (Energy and Tourism): 2.62
Soraya Saenz de Santamaría (Deputy Prime Minister): 3.58
Íñigo de la Serna (Public Works): 3.00
Juan Ignacio Zoido (Interior): 2.90


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on February 06, 2018, 08:22:56 AM
I wonder how much Catalonia is hurting UP and Iglesias. The party's support for a Catalan secession referendum, while noble, cannot be popular with the rest of the country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 07, 2018, 06:14:20 PM
Podemos and Cs have been working on a new electoral reform deal by themselves. They are trying to limit themselves to reforms that don't require constitutional reforms so that they can pass it without PP, just by convincing PSOE.

Today Podemos presented their proposal, which has 4 basic points:

-Lowering the voting age to 16

-Introducing "zipper lists". As in lists must alternate between men and women. Iirc Podemos and PSOE already do this by themselves, they want to make it mandatory for everyone else

-Replacing the D'Hondt method by Sainte Lague.

-Removing the "begged vote" system for Spaniards abroad.

-A joint "mailing" for ballots. In Spain ballots for the main parties are sent to your home instead of you having to pick them up. This obviously benefits large parties and it will remain this way, this is more of a cost saving measure.

-Mandatory debates

Of these the only one that has a real effect is the 3rd measure. While D'Hondt per se is not what makes the Spanish system not fully proportional (that would be provincial constituencies) it still makes it better. For reference the 2016 results would have been:

PP: 122 (-15)
PSOE: 84 (-1)
Podemos: 77 (+6)
Cs: 44 (+12)
ERC: 9 (nc)
PDECat: 7 (-1)
PNV: 4 (-1)
Bildu: 2 (nc)
CC: 1 (nc)

As for the others, lowering the voting age to 16 will almost certainly fail. Mandatory debates will probably fail as well. The others will probably be successful.

In general this is an underwhelming reform but is better than nothing. Of course we now have to wait for Cs' counteroffer and whether PSOE will even support their efforts as well. I certainly hope so but it's far from guaranteed.

--X--

Also, Catalonia has been having trouble getting a regional president. Puigdemont can't return to Spain and courts have determined that in order to be elected regional president he has to be in parliament. Secessionists wanted to elect him anyways but in the end the parliament speaker Roger Torrent (who had the power to call or not the parliamentary meeting) chickened out at the last minute and cancelled the meeting

So now ERC, JxCat and CUP are negotiating. Puigdemont apparently doesn't want to become irrelevant like Mas before him which is causing trouble.

The most common solution I've seen proposed is the "dual presidency" where there would be a symbolic president and a real one. ERC wants the legislature to behave normally and Puigdemont to be symbolic (think of the Spanish king). Puigdemont wants to be the real president, with a real parliament to elect him (he proposed the "mayors meeting", ie a meeting of all secessionists mayors) and the institutions in Barcelona being just puppets.

Unionist parties aren't happy and I guess they would sue but IMO a dual presidency would be legal. It wouldn't be that different from Kazcynski in Poland or Dragnea in Romania.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 09, 2018, 09:03:38 AM
Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html

()

With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on February 09, 2018, 12:39:34 PM
With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1
Where can this extrapolator be found?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 09, 2018, 12:51:25 PM
Well, I guess El País is starting to do its polls on their offices. Either that or they are outright making them up.

Metroscopia-El País poll

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/02/08/actualidad/1518116526_354844.html

()

With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1

Cs-PP and Cs-PSOE both get a majority. In terms of regional winners:

PP: Galicia, Navarra, Ceuta, Melilla
PSOE: Andalucia, Extremadura
PNV: Basque Country
Unsure: Castille-Leon, Castille-La Mancha. The former probably leans Cs, the latter leans PP.
Cs: Everything else

()
Results by province.

Yeah, C's results seem very exaggerated. Metroscopia has a history of overpolling either C's and Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 09, 2018, 12:53:09 PM
With a handy seat extrapolator I found on the internet, the results would be:

Cs: 108
PP: 83
PSOE: 80
UP 53

ERC: 10
PDECat: 7
PNV: 6
Bildu 2
CC: 1
Where can this extrapolator be found?

http://electomania.es/electocalculadora-3-0-%C2%A1ahora-con-mapa-integrado/

Here it is. It's an Excel spreadsheet where you put the percentages for each party and it extrapolates the Congress, Senate and even does a map.

The only downside is that it seems to be based off the 2015 election, not the 2016 one. Though it at least does add up IU and Podemos as UP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 11, 2018, 07:41:13 AM
Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 11, 2018, 02:39:35 PM
Another poll, this time from Gad3-ABC. Seems like the situation has stabilized.

()

Yeah, it seems to stabilize but this poll is bucking the trend a bit: a PP increase and a slight C's decrease. We'll see if another poll confirms this.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 12, 2018, 08:08:53 AM
Apparently that poll also had a 2nd part, this time about the 2019 local elections. They polled the 52 provincial capitals and claim that PP+Cs would be able to get up to 35 of them. There are no date on the rest for some reason. The map looks like this

()

PP hold: Santander, Leon, Palencia, Burgos, Logroño, Guadalajara, Cuenca, Albacete, Cáceres, Badajoz, Jaén, Granada, Málaga, Almería, Ceuta, Melilla, Murcia

Cs gain from PP: Ávila

PP gain from PSOE: Oviedo, Huesca, Valladolid, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Córdoba

PP gain from nationalists: Palma de Mallorca (Technically PSOE held the mayor for 2 years and Mes for the other 2 as part of their deal, it was a tie)

PP gain from IU/Podemos: Zamora, Madrid, Cádiz

Cs gain from nationalists: Valencia (Compromís)

Cs gain from PSOE: Alicante

PSOE hold (but PP-Cs would have more councillors): Toledo, Sevilla

Overall number of councillors:

()

Since they didn't cover cities where PP+Cs wouldn't get a majority, I'll try to do them but these are just guesses:

A Coruña: Safe Podemos hold
Pontevedra: Safe BNG hold
Ourense: Likely Podemos hold
Lugo: Safe PSOE hold

IMO Ourense could change hands inside the block (to PSOE) and Lugo is the likeliest PP-Cs pickup. The other 2 are safe

Bilbao: Safe PNV hold (literally held by PNV since Spain became a democracy)
San Sebastián: Lean PNV hold
Vitoria: Lean PP gain

Keep in mind that while Bilbao is titanium PNV, the other 2 are very hard to predict because of post electoral deals.

Lleida: Tossup between PDECat and PSC
Girona: Safe PDECat hold
Tarragona: Lean PSOE hold
Barcelona: Lean Podemos hold

Again, other than Girona (and to a lesser extent Barcelona) the others are very hard to predict because of post electoral alliances. It will depend on how much the nationalist axis influences the standard left-right axis

Pamplona: Lean UPN gain
Soria: Safe PSOE hold
Segovia: Safe PSOE hold
Huelva: Safe PSOE hold

Again, Pamplona is a bit hard to predict, the other 3 are extremely safe for PSOE (in Huelva's case only if PP-Cs don't get a majority). They even got an overall majority in Soria and Segovia in 2015!

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria: Lean PP gain.
Santa Cruz de Tenerife: Likely CC hold

Santa Cruz will probably stay with CC, probably through CC-PP. In Las Palmas PP-Cs doesn't get a majority but they could probably count on UxGC, a PP split. Or in CC if it somehow gets representation but that seems very unlikely.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on February 12, 2018, 08:58:19 AM
Are C's always going to vote with PP, or could they support a PSOE administration?

Also, I thought Podemos didn't exist at a local level, and they had all sorts of quasi-independent municipal lists theu sponsered?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 12, 2018, 09:20:45 AM
There could be PSOE-Cs alliances. Particularly in places where PSOE is the largest party but not just limited to those. It would depend more on local issues I guess.

And yes, Podemos doesn't technically exist at the local level but let's be honest, most people who vote for one of those independent lists probably knows they are voting for Podemos. But yes, they can get very complicated.

Not sure if they'll do that again. I guess it will depend on the local specifics, their relation with the local IU branch, etc.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on February 12, 2018, 09:24:03 AM
Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 12, 2018, 04:08:00 PM
Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

Economically they are quite pro-free market. So they support lower taxes, entrepeneurs, more flexible labour laws and the like. One of their key proposals for the last elections was a single contract type, to replace the current dual system of temporary and indefinite contracts.

In terms of social stuff they are centrist I think. They support legalizing surrogate motherhood. Originally they had 2 quite conservative proposals: keeping the law that makes illegal inmigrants only able to get emergancy healthcare and ammending the 2004 gender violence law which according to them unfairly criminalizes men. They've gone back on the 2nd and I think also on the first but I'm not sure on that one.

In general they are seen as more liberal than PP though and have none of the ties to the Catholic Church that PP has (at least nominally)

As for other stuff they are quite tough on corruption and want a stronger central government. They want to abolish the Senate and the provincial governments.

And of course they are quite hardline on the Catalan issue, opposing any deals with the nationalists. They also oppose the special Basque financing system. This is expected since they originally were born as an explicitly anti Catalan nationalist party.

In general they are your standard European centrist liberal party. I've often seen Rivera compared to Macron.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on February 12, 2018, 06:48:03 PM
The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan nationalist party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on February 12, 2018, 06:53:42 PM
Tack, could you discuss a little bit about Cs's platform and placement on the political spectrum, if you don't mind?

I thought everyone already knew about them. But sure, no problem.

I did (in fact, they are one of my favorite parties), but from my end, I sometimes have trouble finding their stances on issues outside of Spanish unionism so easily. In addition, many have described it as being anything from center-left to center-right, so i just wanted to know how someone in Spain would describe them.

Thank you for the response!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on February 14, 2018, 01:33:26 AM
The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan Spanish internationalist party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 14, 2018, 10:07:39 AM
The main achievement of Catalan separatism -its absurdity, its lies and its disconnection from reality- is the awakening of a reactionary version of Spanish nationalism.

Cs is a Spanish nationalist party seeking forma a recentralization  of the Spanish state in open competition with the corrupt and decadent PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 15, 2018, 08:02:20 AM
The previous post, like many others, ignores the fact they are a Castillan nationalist party.

Cs was born in Catalonia as Ciutadans. It was a non-entity outside Catalonia until 2015. By no means Cs is a 'Castilian' party. It's a Spanish party with Catalan origins.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 18, 2018, 10:22:43 AM
2 more new polls

Celeste-Tel for Eldiario.es

PP: 118-123 (28.9%)
PSOE: 92-95 (25.5%)
Cs: 61-63 (19.3%)
UP: 47-52 (16.5%)
PACMA: 0 (1.2%)
Others: 1.6%

ERC: 10-11 (2.7%)
PDECat: 6 (1.6%)
PNV: 5-6 (1.3%)
Bildu: 2-3 (0.9%)
CC: 1 (0.3%)

Also includes vote by age and vote transfers

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-noviembre_0_739826392.html

Invymark for La Sexta

PP: 25.9%
Cs: 23.8%
PSOE: 22.8%
UP: 16.5%

Approval ratings

Albert Rivera: 4.52
Pedro Sánchez: 4.32
Mariano Rajoy: 3.23
Pablo Iglesias: 2.64

Seat distribution (assuming an even swing)

()

http://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/ciudadanos-se-consolida-como-la-segunda-fuerza-politica-en-intencion-de-voto-a-solo-dos-puntos-del-pp_201802185a89804c0cf2af57a90682bd.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 27, 2018, 11:30:07 AM
For some reason we just got 3 polls for the next Andalusian regional election during last week. Tomorrow is Andalucía's national day so I guess that's the reason why.

In theory the election isn't due until March 2019 (shortly before the EU, regional and local elections in May). However many expect Susana Diaz to call a snap election though she denies this.

Anyways, here are the 3 polls:

EGOPA (basically the "Andalusian CIS". Done by the University of Granada)

()

Approval ratings

Susana Diaz (PSOE): 4.38/10 (known by 91%)
Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (PP): 4.14/10 (known by 58%)
Teresa Rodriguez (Podemos): 4.18/10 (known by 59%)
Juan Marín (Cs): 4.76/10 (known by 42%)
Antonio Maíllo (IU): 4.49/10 (known by 56%)

http://cadpea.ugr.es/v4/documentos/file/EGOPA%20INVIERNO%202018/Informe%20EGOPA%20INV%C2%B42018%20copia.pdf

NC Report (seats only) 109 seats, 55 for a majority

PP: 33 (-)
Cs: 14 (+5)
PSOE: 43 (-4)
Podemos: 14 (-1)
IU: 5 (-)

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/sevilla/20180226/441100728558/psoe-a-ganaria-con-8-puntos-sobre-el-pp-a-que-repetiria-escanos-y-cs-lograria-cinco-mas-segun-un-sondeo-de-el-mundo.html

SW Información

PP: 22.5% (25 seats)
Cs: 19.5% (23 seats)
PSOE: 35.4% (45 seats)
UP: 16.5% (16 seats)

http://electomania.es/andalucia-el-psoe-ganaria-de-nuevo-ciudadanos-cerca-del-sorpasso-al-pp/

For reference, the 2015 results were:

PSOE: 35.3% (47 seats)
PP: 26.7% (33 seats)
Podemos: 14.8% (15 seats)
Cs: 9.2% (9 seats)
IU: 6.9% (5 seats)

UPyD: 1.9% (0 seats)
Andalusian Party: 1.7% (0 seats)

Not sure if UPyD will contest the election, though it will be basically in zombie form if it does. The Andalusian Party dissolved shortly after the election. Maybe there will be some successor but I don't think it will even get 1%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on February 27, 2018, 11:54:47 AM
Is a Unidos/PSOE coalition likely? Or will Diaz look to the C's first?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 27, 2018, 01:48:25 PM
Is a Unidos/PSOE coalition likely? Or will Diaz look to the C's first?

Not really. Podemos hates PSOE-A with a passion. Diaz will only go with them as a last resort probably.

In fact, if PP-Cs is short of a majority it wouldn't be completely impossible for Podemos to abstain and allow them to form a minority government, particularly if Cs is ahead.

This has already happened with IU in the past, see Asturias 1995 and Extremadura 2011. Though IU did go with PSOE in 2012 so who knows? Probably likelier to see PSOE-Podemos in that scenario.

Then again Cs' rise basically makes that scenario impossible. It would require PSOE not coming in first, PSOE-Cs not being enough and Podemos abstaining.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 04, 2018, 08:35:34 AM
Ok, here are the last few national polls:

NC Report for La Razón

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Invymark for La Sexta

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I think things have stabilized a bit? Cs and PSOE seem tied while PP is narrowly ahead. An interesting sideffect of this results could be Cs beating PSOE on the popular vote but getting less seats. It's something that has never happened in Spain but that is theoretically possible (if unlikely)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 05, 2018, 10:40:09 AM
And PP comes in third in a poll!  Not sure if it's the first or not

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However the most interesting thing is PACMA. They come at 2%, compared to 1.2% in 2016.

That means that PACMA might get a seat or even 2! They need 3% in Madrid or Barcelona to get seats. In 2016 they got 1.2% in the former and 1.8% in the latter. So at 2% they probably get the Barcelona seat


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on March 05, 2018, 11:07:43 AM
Politico.eu has an interesting article on the conflicts between PP and Cs: All-out war on the Spanish right (https://www.politico.eu/article/albert-rivera-ciudadanos-all-out-war-on-the-spanish-right/)

The article mentions local officials switching parties:

Quote
Worryingly for Rajoy, however, a series of PP officials have defected to Ciudadanos in recent weeks. The trend, limited for the moment to a few dozen local officials, reminds some observers of the shift from France’s Les Républicains to Macron’s La République en Marche.

It also discusses a little bit about conversations around a snap election:

Quote
Rajoy doesn’t have to call a general election until 2020, but the surge in support for Rivera, who dreams of an Emmanuel Macron-style assault on the ruling party, is clearly bothering the conservatives, and the hostilities have become more heated by the week.

How do you see things playing out, Tack? Is a snap election somewhat of a possibility?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 05, 2018, 08:08:53 PM
It's possible, but I would not count on it. In fact every effort by Rajoy seems to be going in the opposite direction, trying to hold until the 2019 regional/local/EU elections and see if PP gets a decent result there or not.

The opposition is claiming that we currently have a "do nothing Congress". Rajoy has promised that he will finally bring a budget to parliament on the 23rd of March. He still doesn't have any support though.

I guess the Canarian parties (particularly CC) won't offer much resistance. But Cs might try and vote against it to capitalize on its good polling numbers though that's a risky strategy. I think Cs will pass it though.

However PNV has said that they won't support any budget until article 155 is lifted on Catalonia which is a whole other story of its own.

On the Catalan side after the whole Puigdemont fiasco he has finally accepted that he won't become regional president. Now the nominee is Jordi Sánchez, number 2 in PDECat's list, former head of a  pro-independence association and most importantly, currently on jail.

However he might not even get the votes to begin with. ERC is definitely not happy about that. They claim that if there is going to be a president from jail and that the number 2 choice for a seccessionist, should be Oriol Junqueras (Puigdemont's VP). However PDECat claims that the president should come from the largest party (ie PDECat)

And CUP has already announced that they won't support Sánchez. In theory this shouldn't be an issue since ERC+JxCat have 66 seats compared to unionists+Podemos' 65, so just an abstention (or being absent) would be enough. Howeveer Puigdemont and one of his former regional ministers are in Brussels and they can't vote so the total score would be 64-65 in favour of unionists so Sánchez would be rejected.

In other words the Catalan issue won't be solved any time soon. Though at least a failed Sánchez vote would make the clock tick towards a second regional election. The Puigdemont failed investiture (where there was a mini "constitutional crisis" with conflicting laws) ended with everyone basically agreeing that the clock hasn't started to count down yet.

And as for a no confidence vote the opposition is too divided so it doesn't seem like they will all join in a no confidence vote. Which means Rajoy could easily stay until 2020 and just rule by decree (though any decrees can be rejected by Congress, in fact the first rejection of a government decree in Spanish history already happened in this term).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2018, 07:40:01 AM
Large lead for C in  Metroscopia  poll

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 11, 2018, 08:03:52 AM
On a sidenote, Jordi Sánchez has not been allowed to temporarily leave jail to attend his investiture vote in Catalonia. The Catalan parliament president has suspended the vote again.

In other words, Catalonia won't be getting a government any time soon.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 11, 2018, 01:39:09 PM
how are all the corruption cases going? I remember before Catalonia eupted as an issue, it very much looked like Rajoy himself would get caught up?

Well Rajoy still lead the PP by next election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 11, 2018, 03:01:05 PM
how are all the corruption cases going? I remember before Catalonia eupted as an issue, it very much looked like Rajoy himself would get caught up?

Well Rajoy still lead the PP by next election?

Well, the trickle of corrupt PP politicians has continued for the last few months or so. The hottest case right now seems to be a continuation of the Gürtel case, involving the Valencian PP, but there have been others.

And yes, Rajoy will still lead PP by the next election. He says that he wants to continue and an internal revolt seems impossible (if it wasn't done in 2008, it won't happen now).

I guess Cs could try to pass term limits but I don't think that will go anywhere.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 11, 2018, 08:56:16 PM
There was a massive feminist strike on March 8

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/08/spanish-women-give-up-work-for-a-day-in-first-feminist-strike

This has been the most relevant political issue this week. What is more: that day will pass to history. I feel deeply grateful and, for once, proud of my country. Feminism is a good cause that trascends sex, gender, ethnicity or personal beliefs.

Feminist tide is a breath of fresh air after the insufferable war on flags (Catalan separatism, Spanish nationalism).

The success of the feminist strike caught Spanish Right unaware. PP and Cs have tried to join the feminist wave after the big Women's Day demonstrations, when both parties were previously hostile or wary to the call.

The feminist tide in Spain is cross-ideological and cross-generational


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 12, 2018, 06:08:40 AM
To be fair, the actual strike was very underwhelming. Just compare the electricity consumption data to that of the last general strike (14th November 2012). Though it also doesn't help that only small unions were supporting the 24h strikes, with the major unions (CCOO and UGT) only backing 2h strikes

https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html

What was a success were the protests in the same day, which was a surprise to me. I though they were going to fail hard.

I'm happy we've moved on from flags I guess but I don't quite agree with the feminists.

Though watching PP and Cs hilariously backflip hard was really nice.

PP went from people like Cifuentes and Tejerina saying they will do a "Japanese strike" (ie work harder), to Rajoy inmediately saying that he doesn't believe that. And Cs went from being against the strike because it was anticapitalist to fully supporting it (though in Cs' defense, one of the issues was that capitalism opressed women and their flip wasn't as hard as PP's)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on March 13, 2018, 08:54:36 AM
What is C's position on the rather draconian censorship laws the PP has been introducing? It should be a litmus test of their "liberal" credentials.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 13, 2018, 11:12:50 AM
Well, iirc they were in favour of repealing the "gag law" at least nominally. However they hadn't really done anything about it until this February when they voted to pass a motion to start repealing it. Still not repealed though.

However as of now the big "liberal" debate is probably the repeal of "permanent revisable prision", a form of life imprisionment introduced in 2015 by PP.

This has come into the spotlight because of a few mediatic murder cases reciently. The positions are:

PP: They want to keep it as is, or even make it harsher

Cs: They've done a flip. Back when they made a deal with PSOE they agreed to repeal it as part of the deal (though it wasn't part of their platform in Cs defense). However now they have flipped to PP's position, where they want to keep it or even make it harsher. They do seem slightly more moderate than PP though

PSOE, Podemos and PNV are the main parties behind the effort to repeal the law, they all agree on repealing it.

Worth noting that back when it was passed all parties except PP sent the law to the constitutional court to see if it was constitutional. No news on that front though.

So I guess Cs is becoming less liberal and more of a PP-lite without corruption


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2018, 12:49:53 AM
To be fair, the actual strike was very underwhelming. Just compare the electricity consumption data to that of the last general strike (14th November 2012). Though it also doesn't help that only small unions were supporting the 24h strikes, with the major unions (CCOO and UGT) only backing 2h strikes

https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html

What was a success were the protests in the same day, which was a surprise to me. I though they were going to fail hard.

I'm happy we've moved on from flags I guess but I don't quite agree with the feminists.

Though watching PP and Cs hilariously backflip hard was really nice
.

PP went from people like Cifuentes and Tejerina saying they will do a "Japanese strike" (ie work harder), to Rajoy inmediately saying that he doesn't believe that. And Cs went from being against the strike because it was anticapitalist to fully supporting it (though in Cs' defense, one of the issues was that capitalism opressed women and their flip wasn't as hard as PP's)

The bolded sentence is the proof that feminists achieved a great success.

As for electric consumption data, keep in mind that it was a "women's strike" (in most cases men went to work) and that in many cases there were selective and not total strikes. It was a glorious journey, in my opinion. Feminists have achieved the"transversality" that Podemos and Ciudadanos have been always pursuing. Furthermore, they have achieved "hegemony" (Íñigo Errejón must be happy) I don't know if these protests will have electoral repercussion, but everybody will have to note down. In that regard Albert Rivera reacted awkwardly (not to mention Rajoy, Tejerina and Cifuentes). Macron would have reacted with more agility. There is an undeniable prejudice against feminism in the Spanish Right.

I think feminist demands are fair and reasonable. Given that you don't give arguments against, I don't know where are your disagreements. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 14, 2018, 08:35:17 AM
I mean, I just think they might be going too far? Not sure how to put it really. Many demands are reasonable, but some of my complaints might include:

The "wage gap" doesn't really exist. If you adjust for hours worked, position, etc; the wage gap basically disappears, it's just that women usually take less paid jobs, work less hours etc. Of course now you have to ask whether that's because of social pressure or what, but the "wage gap" in the "women earn less for the same job" sense  doesn't really exist.

In fact I think it will probably shrink naturally over the years as the generations educated under Franco (when women didn't really work and were discriminated if they did) retire and since women have a majority of degrees in university.

Other stuff I don't fully agree might include

Way too much focus on "oppression by the patriarchy". Though it might be me being subconsciously biased against those terms.

While not the focus of the strike, it involved anti-capitalist elements.

It was way too politicised. Looking at the manifesto, many parts might as well be part of Podemos' or PSOE's 2020 manifesto. Think of stuff like critizising cuts and corruption.

That and the fact that the stike was redundant in itself IMO. The 2h strikes by the major unions were much better. I do fully support the protests though.

Now, it doesn't mean that I disagree with all or even most of the manifesto (I'd probably agree 50-75%), I just think it went a bit too far?

I feel like while there's still stuff to do, women in Spain are really well off. Iirc Spain was the 5th best country to be a woman, only behind like the nordic countries. We are on the right track, inequality will probably solve itself over time. We just have to wait now, Rome wasn't built in a day after all.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 14, 2018, 08:42:42 AM
On a sidenote, the pensionists protests have been also very successful. They are also bringing pensions back to the debate.

For those unaware, the government has been rising pensions by 0.25% each year even though inflation is much higher than that. So in the end it equals to some sort of "hidden cut"

The thing is that the entire Spanish pension system is probably a Ponzi scheme in that young people (less) pay the pensions of old people (more). So the big problem here (as everywhere else) is sustainability.

Iirc Podemos and PSOE are pushing to tie pensions to inflation while the government is opposed to that.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2018, 04:29:53 PM
I mean, I just think they might be going too far? Not sure how to put it really. Many demands are reasonable, but some of my complaints might include:

The "wage gap" doesn't really exist. If you adjust for hours worked, position, etc; the wage gap basically disappears, it's just that women usually take less paid jobs, work less hours etc. Of course now you have to ask whether that's because of social pressure or what, but the "wage gap" in the "women earn less for the same job" sense  doesn't really exist.

In fact I think it will probably shrink naturally over the years as the generations educated under Franco (when women didn't really work and were discriminated if they did) retire and since women have a majority of degrees in university.

According to INE the average gross re numeration of men was EUR 25.992.76 in 2015, while women earned EUR 20.051.58 on average. This means that year women earned 23% less than men on average. It's the so-called "yearly wage gap" unadjusted.

Given that the proportion of women with part-time jobs is much higher than men's (25% and 8%, respectively), Eurostat measures gross re numeration per hour worked. According to that, wage gap in Spain is 14.2%. The higher proportion of part-time jobs is related with the role of women as mothers, housewives and caregivers.

It is illegal to pay different salaries for doing the same job, but the principle of "equal pay for work of equal value" is not always met. Direct discrimination is rare. but indirect discrimination is more common.  For examples and further detail on what is the "wage gap", read the article linked below.

https://elpais.com/economia/2018/03/07/actualidad/1520446618_332181.html

 My opinion is that the concept of "wage gap" is more real than the "Japanese strike" (it's an urban legend circulating in Spain). Even Cristina Cifuentes admits its existence!

Quote
Way too much focus on "oppression by the patriarchy". Though it might be me being subconsciously biased against those terms.

The historical existence of patriarchy is undeniable. We live in a patriarchal society, Despite men and women are equal before the law, there is discrimination in many aspects of life. Patriarchy is deeply entrenched in our culture and our society and it will take generations achieving real gender equality. The ugliest face of what some feminists call "oppression by the patriarchy" is gender violence. Also women trafficking, or the fact that a woman cannot walk alone at night without fear (something that average men don't experience).You may not like feminist terminology, but it's based on reality. 

Quote
It was way too politicised. Looking at the manifesto, many parts might as well be part of Podemos' or PSOE's 2020 manifesto. Think of stuff like critizising cuts and corruption.

Obviously. The struggle for gender equality is political. Look from another angle: maybe Podemos and PSOE are more open to feminism than PP and Cs. Out of interest, PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez tried to hit the headlines on March 8 demonstrations and was booed by feminists.

Quote
While not the focus of the strike, it involved anti-capitalist elements

It's a poor excuse, in my opinion. It's not necessary to embrace anti-capitalism in order to support the protests. Even if you don't agree with the wording of the manifesto, the cause of gender equality transcends that ideology.

I like Inés Arrimadas and think that she's much better than her boss, the terrible Albert Rivera, but she made a mistake in not supporting the protests because of the anti-capitalist thing. On the other hand, Cs is far from being a feminist party. Remember the 2015 campaign.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2018, 04:42:59 PM
On a sidenote, the pensionists protests have been also very successful. They are also bringing pensions back to the debate.

The pensioner protests are more than a footnote. Also, they touch the aging PP voter base. On the other hand, PP has emptied the social security money box. The future of pension system is at stake. Given the current demographic trend, the problem is very worrying.

Corruption, Catalonia, anti-capitalist women, angry pensioners... Everything runs smoothly. Mariano! ;D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 16, 2018, 06:51:02 AM
We have some new polls. And for the first time ever, Vox manages to get a seat in a regional assembly!

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

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Simple Lógica

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Approval ratings

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And the poll you were all waiting for:

SyM Consulting for Murcia regional assembly

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Yes, the "others" part is confirmed to be Vox

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/974371882031075328

That pollster has done quite a lot of regional polls actually over the last few months, but this one is by far the most interesting one, mostly because of the IU revival and Vox's rise


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 18, 2018, 10:05:54 AM
2 more new polls

GAD3 for La Vanguardia

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Not much interesting about this one other than Podemos finally recovering and Cs winning in votes but only getting a tie in terms of seats

Invymark for La Sexta

()

This one predicts a tie in terms of votes. However IMO the most interesting thing are the Catalan nationalists, with PDECat tying with ERC! It might be a fluke (after all there's probably a small sample size) but if they managed to beat ERC, it would be the first time ERC is the smaller Catalan nationalist in a Spain-wide election since the 2011 general election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 21, 2018, 06:23:38 PM
We somehow got a lot of big news today!

First of all we have a big scandal from regional president of Madrid, Cristina Cifuentes (PP). She is being accused of falsifying her final Masters degree work and another course. The university and Cifuentes have denied this and released some documents but the ones who uncovered the scandal are releasing contradicting documents so who knows? Thus far she has not given a good explanation.

And this is a very big scandal for several reasons:

The regional election is in June of 2019, little more than a year from now. And PP will start choosing its candidates soon. So if she is found guilty of falsifying her degree she will have to be replaced. So far she is giving big vibes of corruption, another corruption case she also didn't really explain it well.

Her deal with Cs explicitly said that if someone from the government was found falsyfying their curriculum, they had to resign. Thus far Cs hasn't broken the alliance but if she isn't able to explain it well, they'll probably do that soon.




And the other big news, guess who? Everyone's favourite region, Catalonia!

The judge in charge of the case against the former regional government called a meeting for this friday, to see if he sent them back to prision, put them a bigger bail, did nothing, retired their passports, the usual stuff

To counteract this and just to be sure that they don't go to jail, the president of the catalan parliament, Roger Torrent, called for a special meeting of the Catalan parliament tomorrow, to make Jordi Turull (fmr. government speaker) the new regional Catalan president.

It's expected to pass since everyone thinks CUP won't dare to oppose him. So tomorrow we'll have a new Catalan president, out of nowhere.

However apparently because of procedural stuff there's a short while between getting a president-elect and the president-elect taking possession. So it's entirely possible that Turull is sent to jail as president-elect, which means that he is inmediately disqualified and thus article 155 isn't lifted.

Catalan politicians never cease to amaze me


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 23, 2018, 02:49:56 PM
Well, there have been more developments.

On the Cifuentes scandal thing not much unfortunately other than Cifuentes falling into lots of contradictions. I hope she doesn't get away with it but instead her contradictions force her to resign like Soria.

However the big development is in Catalonia.

Yesterday was the vote on Jordi Turull's candidacy for regional president. And in a surprising turn of events, CUP decided to abstain instead of voting in favour! This means that the vote failed, 64 yes, 65 no, 4 abstentions, 2 absent (Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comín, both in Brussels).

Today the meeting with the judge happened, intended for the judge to revise 6 cases. However one of the ones who were supposed to be there, Marta Rovira (who was the head of ERC during the campaign since Junqueras was in jail), decided to self-exile herself in Switzerland!

So the remaining 5 were sent to prision, including Jordi Turull himself, under a very easy "risk of fleeing" charge. The other 4 were:

Former president of the Catalan parliament Carme Forcadell
Former regional minister "of foreign affairs" Raul Romeva
Former regional minister of territory Josep Rull
Former regional minister of labour Dolors Bassa

It seems that tomorrow's second round (which would have failed anyways) will have to be cancelled since Jordi Turull will be in jail. However this still counts as the start of the countdown to a new election. So if they don't get someone elected before the 22nd of May, there will be a new election called for the 15th of July. Yay! /s

And of course this means that Rajoy won't be able to pass a budget since PNV has said that they won't even negotiate until article 155 is lifted, which won't happen until there's a "regional government according to law".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on March 24, 2018, 04:23:53 AM
Yesterday was the vote on Jordi Turull's candidacy for regional president. And in a surprising turn of events, CUP decided to abstain instead of voting in favour! This means that the vote failed, 64 yes, 65 no, 4 abstentions, 2 absent (Carles Puigdemont and Antoni Comín, both in Brussels).

The CUP abstention on the Jordi Turull's investiture wasn't surprising at all. As it happened when JxCAT proposed the investiture of former ANC leader (now in jail) Jordi Sánchez, the CUP people said they won't support any candidate who does not follow the insurrectionary path to independence (disobey the Spanish state, implementation of the self-proclaimed "Republic of Catalonia"). The other reason to abstain is that Turull represents the old Convergència (linked to Jordi Pujol and corruption), that is to say he's not a candidate palatable for the CUP. Like them or not (I don't like them), they are always consistent with their statements. After the bad election results, the far-left separatist party is facing some internal turbulence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on March 25, 2018, 07:20:00 AM
Puigdemont detained after crossing the border between Denmark and Germany. (https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/03/25/actualidad/1521973804_797756.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 28, 2018, 07:15:28 AM
Rajoy has finally presented his 2018 bugdet. Quite late but whatever.

He has also done a deal with Cs so that they support the budget.

However it is not expected to pass in its current form since PNV has said they won't even sit to negotiate anything until article 155 is lifted. As for the Canarians, CC has said that if everything goes well they will probably support it, while NC refuses to negotiate until PP has the support of PNV (they want to be the magic 176th MP)

Another possibility could be for PSOE to abstain, but I don't think that could be sold by Sánchez. It won't make the old guard love him and it would be a big betrayal of his base, who voted him on his "no is no" pledges.

Important measures included in the budget negotiation between PP and Cs are

Raising minimum and widow pensions by 2%
30-60€ tax cut for pensioners earning between 1000 and 1200 €
Negative fiscal credit for pensions between 600 and 1000€
Paternity leave to be made 1 week longer
1000€ help for parents with kids 0-3 years old
Salary compliment for 600 000 young people, to be paid with EU funds
500 million € for policemen and Guardia Civil to earn the same as their regional counterparts (mossos, ertzainza)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on March 31, 2018, 03:15:01 PM
We haven't had polls for a while, here's a new one:

Sigma Dos for El Mundo

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I guess we'll soon talk again about the "sorpasso"? XD


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 02, 2018, 03:03:33 PM
Yet another new poll, this time from

Sociométrica for El Español

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2 consecutive polls with PSOE at less than 20%. Bad news for Pedro Sánchez.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 02, 2018, 03:42:05 PM
What's with the mini Vox bump?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 02, 2018, 05:54:53 PM

It's actually a drop believe it or not! They were at 2% in November, 1.7% in January and now at 1.5%

I wouldn't trust the percentage much though, at least for small parties, just the seat count. 0.5% for CC for example is also somewhat suspicious IMO

Thing is, Sociometrica are the only ones asking for Vox (barely any pollsters ask for parties smaller than PNV or PDECat to begin with). So it's the only reference we will have until the EU parliment election I'd say.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 04, 2018, 07:51:15 AM
It's a bit old, but there has been a corruption scandal affecting PSOE and Compromís in the Valencian community. Not to the scale of PP's Gurtel probably, but still will probably harm them quite a bit, PP and Cs will almos surely attack them on that.

We are starting to get some polls about the regional elections of 2019. Anyways, here's the Madrid poll

Sociométrica for El Español, Madrid regional election

5% threshold, 1 at large constituency

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With this result Cs would be the strongest party and could choose their coaltion partner between PP and PSOE. IU (if they run alone) would barely get over the threshold and make a comeback. Vox gets 3.4% which is under the threshold, but in a general election would give them 1 seat (then again this pollster is an outlier). Everyone down except Cs and IU

The Cifuentes scandal probably helped them a lot.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 04, 2018, 05:04:14 PM
And speaking about Madrid, regional president Cristina Cifuentes went today to the regional assembly to explain herself and her master's degree scandal. Her explanation was far from good.

And inmediately after the parliament session was over, PSOE inmediately said that they'll present a no confidence vote. Podemos has already said that they'll support it no matter what.

So now it's all about Cs, whether they side with PP and Cifuentes or with PSOE and kick her out, 1 year before the regional elections. Or maybe Cifuentes resigns anyways, remember that we already saw a very similar scenario unfold in Murcia last year.

Also, it would be quite ironic if Cifuentes is taken down by falsifying her master's degree, and her replacement being former eduaction minister and university professor Angel Gabilondo (PSOE's leader in Madrid) XD


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on April 04, 2018, 06:19:12 PM
Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 04, 2018, 06:41:50 PM
Tack, have there been any regional polls from Valencia recently?

Not really. The newest polls are from September 2017. So more than 6 months old.

Still if you want them here they are, alongside even more outdated polls:

https://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Val


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 05, 2018, 12:16:23 PM
And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on April 05, 2018, 12:35:02 PM
And Puigdemont has been freed! German justice has rejected to extradite Puigdemont for rebellion and has freed Puigdemont under a 75 000 € bail. He might still be extradited to Spain, as the corruption and public fund misappropiation charges have been accepted, but the rebellion charge was dismissed.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180405/442207871883/puigdemont-libre-descarta-rebelion.html

In any case good news for secessionists. Not sure if Puigdemont will try to flee but still.

I don't think he can flee until his ruling is final. It's like if you are suspected of a crime, you are presented to a judged and then you wait the ruling in freedom. If you flee, that's proof of something.

Now, if he is extradite by corruption charges, wouldn't that be bad news for secessionists? I mean, they have already the Pujol case and if Puigdemont is trialed by, only, corruption wouldn't that drain out the idea that he was a political prisoner?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 05, 2018, 12:56:39 PM
Sure, he legally can't flee but there's nothing technically stopping him other than the fact that most countries would inmediately arrest him anyways.

As for corruption, the alleged "corruption" is the fact that he used public money to pay for the referendum. So no, secessionists won't care. I think the official charge is public fund misuse


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on April 06, 2018, 11:47:13 AM
Castilla-la-Mancha poll from SYM Consulting:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 07, 2018, 04:44:29 PM
Metroscopia strikes again! 3 way tie for last place!

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Further details (vote transfers, evolution, approval ratings, some extra questions)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/06/media/1523031908_175487.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Harlow on April 07, 2018, 08:57:35 PM
We're not too far off from a poll with C's and Podemos first and second.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 08, 2018, 05:10:56 AM
Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

It's a Podemos internal but whatever

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So, PSOE wins and can easily repeat the PSOE-Compromís-UP deal, while a PSOE-Cs deal falls short of a majority, and same with PP-Cs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on April 08, 2018, 11:31:22 AM
Also, for whoever asked for Valencia polls, apparently someone heard you and published one XD

:D

Thanks :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 12, 2018, 09:28:25 AM
2 more new polls. First, the national one

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

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And now a regional poll for Madrid, just while PP and regional President Cristina Cifuentes are in the middle of the masters degree scandal

It's a Cs internal but still noteworthy

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Cs wins and gets to choose between PP and PSOE as their partner. IU makes a comeback and gets above the threshold. And a left wing government falls short.

And another internal for regional elections in Madrid, this time from PSOE

PSOE: 27.5%
Cs: 26.8%
PP: 26.3%
Podemos: 14.5%
IU: 2.5%

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3310846/0/encuesta-interna-psoe-ganaria-madrid-pp-pierde-cinco-puntos-caso-cifuentes/

Cs ends up as kingmaker.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 20, 2018, 04:54:18 AM
We are getting some very weird candidates for the 2019 local elections.

First of all, PSOE asked the current mayor of Madrid, Manuela Carmena (Podemos) to be their candidate! Granted, Carmena is a moderate in Podemos and doesn't have great relations with the rest of the party but still, at this point PSOE is basically recognizing they don't have a good candidate in Madrid! They claim that it was an informal offer to recognize that she is doing a great job but still.

But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 20, 2018, 05:11:12 AM
Also, Cs almost breaking 30% in one poll, while PSOE overtakes PP! (granted this is a good pollster for Cs, and to a lesser extent PSOE, but still)

Simple lógica poll

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on April 20, 2018, 08:22:27 AM
But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.
In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 20, 2018, 09:17:42 AM
But there's an even weirder candidacy. That of Manuel Valls, former PM of France, to run for Barcelona mayor for Cs! Why would he do that? He has apparently participated in several unionist speeches and the like but still it's a really weird candidacy. Now, he is only considering, but the offer from Cs is there.

And yes, under EU law this would indeed be legal as any EU citizen can run and vote in local elections in whichever EU country they live in. So as long as he lives in Barcelona and registers, he would be ok. And he does have ties to Spain, after all he was born in Barcelona to a Spanish man (exiled in Paris because of the civil war) and had Spanish citizenship until 1982.
In France any EU citizen can run and be elected to city/town councils, but the top job (mayor) can only go to a French citizen. Isn't there such type of restriction in Spain?
It would be historical moment for the EU if it happens...

Nope, no such restriction in Spain. There are very few examples but they do exist. A Belgian became mayor of a small Andalusian town in 2015 for example

https://www.elplural.com/2015/06/28/un-guiri-alcalde-de-un-pueblo-andaluz-por-ciudadanos

And as of 2009 there were 2 foreign mayors (1 French, one Belgian) and 85 foreign councillors. (Brits being a large plurality)

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2009/08/07/espana/1249643521.html

Granted I don't think Valls would become mayor even if Cs got a great result (most likely some sort of secessionists+Podemos coalition would win)

But yeah, if he did win and become mayor it would be huge news for the EU


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 22, 2018, 05:04:36 AM
And we've got some new polls.

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya (national poll)

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Celeste-Tel, regional elections in Madrid

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Top 3 all within the margin of error, Podemos not too far behind, particularly if IU joins them.

SyM consulting, regional elections in Valencia

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TSA for Canarias 7, regional elections in the Canary Islands

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As expected, most likely the La Gomera regionalist ASG will act as kingmaker.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on April 25, 2018, 08:01:44 AM
Cristina Cifuentes resigns as President of the Community of Madrid: (https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/04/25/actualidad/1524643078_623889.html)

Cristina Cifuentes has resigned as President of the Community of Madrid not because of her master degree fiasco, but because of a video of her shoplifting in a supermarket in 2011.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 28, 2018, 09:05:26 AM
#metoo has apparently arrived to Spain!

A bit of an introduction, a recient quite polemic gang rape case has caused a lot of protests since many people think the punishment was too lenient (9 years in jail, with one of the 3 judgest actually voting to clear them of all charges!)

In fact, they were cleared of actual rape, only found guilty of "sexual abuse" which carries a lesser punishment

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/protests-spain-five-men-cleared-of-teenagers-gang-rape-pamplona

This caused no es abuso, es violación (it's not abuse, it's rape), no is no and similar stuff to trend. And now #cuéntalo (tell it) is trending on twitter

http://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20180428/443093670148/cuentalo-la-manada-protesta-mujeres-twitter.html

I thought the feminist strikes and the like were a 1 off thing, but I guess they are here to stay.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 29, 2018, 05:24:06 AM
PSOE internal for the Canary Islands regional elections

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If this is a PSOE internal it's an absolute disaster for them. Also for CC and really good for Cs! In fact it's very weird for an internal to have the party that asked for it so low and still being published.

Hell, the Canarias7 public poll was actually a lot more PSOE friendly than their own internals!

Metroscopia-El Pais for Madrid regional elections

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Futher information: https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/04/26/media/1524763200_673592.html

Vote transfers and approval ratings.

Great news for Cs and terrible news for PP. Keep in mind this was a poll done before Cifuentes resigned so it's already outdated but whatever.

Also, first time I've seen Vox mentioned on this pollster. Assuming they held 100% of their 2015 vote they'd get 2.6% of the vote. Well below the 5% threshold for the regional elections, but in a general election it would be close (they'd need 3%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on April 29, 2018, 02:25:45 PM
Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 29, 2018, 03:42:09 PM
Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on April 29, 2018, 03:54:27 PM
Also, El País published an interesting study on the amount of women voters by party. Apparently Cs (which previously had a majority women electorate) is now the most masculine party!

Here are their results

Vote by party, for both men and women

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% of the party voters that are men/women

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So, by party, it seems that Cs and Podemos have somehow reversed. Cs had a majority female electorate and Podemos had a very masculinzed electorate. PP has always had an almost perfect 50-50 split. And PSOE is apparently the party of women, with 56% of PSOE voters being women!

Also, women make a larger percentage of undecideds and of people who don't plan on voting. Which is especially interesting since women actually did turn out more than men in 2016 (the electorate was 52% women in the 2015 election, not sure about 2016)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on April 29, 2018, 05:22:53 PM
Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on May 02, 2018, 02:42:16 AM
Tack, what is the reaction to the idea of Manuel Valls running, under Ciudadanos (C's), for Barcelona mayor? Does he have a chance?

There hasn't been a huge reaction actually!

As for whether he has a chance, I don't think so. Barcelona is quite a left wing city to begin with, it's only ever had a right of centre mayor once since Spain became a democracy.

Also he will have a hard time finding allies. PP will obviously support him but that's about it (in fact PP might even fall below the threshold! Though I still think they'll make it.

PSC would probably prefer a left wing mayor though if the campaign polarizes on nationalist issues then they might support Cs. But that's about it, and PP-Cs-PSC will not get a majority.

Honestly, I find Barcelona to be arguably the hardest city in Spain to predict, because of the very volatile environment (a campaign based on city issues would be radically different from one based on independence), the many parties involved and the 2 way axis (left-right and secessionist-unionist)

I think C's would had a good chance of being the 1st party in Barcelona with a candidate from that city, after all they won by 4% over ERC in the 2017 elections, but Valls seems a risky bet. We'll see if he even runs, until 2019 a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

About the El País study, i always saw C's as the party of young male voters/middle age men, not young women curiously. Don't know if the "La Manada" case had an impact, but the reaction from Spanish women is quite interesting comapared to a similar situation we had in Portugal a few months ago. A few months ago, a judge from a Porto court ruled that a man, who had violently beaten his wife after finding out she was having an affair, should not receive a higher punishment because the adultery of  his wife "attempted against the dignity of men". To argue his decision, the judge used the outdated 1886 penal code and the bible. There was controversy in the media but in society overall nothing happened, which shows the different attitudes Portuguese and Spanish societies have. It's interesting.

I honestly think C's would be shooting themselves in the foot getting Valls in because the issues Barcelona is facing as a city (housing, overpopulation, tourism mismanagement, pollution) don't fit his profile and he even said he was considering it to refight the referendum at a local level. Even Garcia Albiol called this out as unwise and he's hardly an psephological authority on bringing national issues into local debates.

On the other hand if I'm anti-Colau and anti-seperatist, I can see how C's would be able to garner votes based on a solid no-nonsense platform of 'the PSOE governed for years, the nationalists can't be trusted, and Colau is incompetent.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 02, 2018, 08:00:37 AM
How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on May 02, 2018, 10:39:15 AM
How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

If you have google translate on hand or can read spanish :

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180104/erc-superaria-a-colau-en-las-municipales-segun-el-barometro-de-barcelona-6531160

Looks like she would keep the initial majority she formed.

This actually seems to contradict what I said :

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My understanding from Catalan friends though is that she is seen as somewhat of a dud. Remember all those Guardian/Vice articles about the Superilles in Poblenou that were going to make a hip district? The locals rebelled against that. Has the tourism issue improved? Ask any Catalan and they say it has not, because the only solution is having border control, so why protest anyway. Has the bloated housing market been cracked down upon? She might have tackled AirBnB but ultimately the Airbnb issue is hiding a bigger problem in major European cities, which is that housing in a European inner city/capital is seen as a safe investment, be it for people who just move to the periphery of the city, or Chinese businessmen/mafia wanting to hide their lunch money from the CPC (which is a real problem in Catalonia). And it is not seen as actual housing, for people to live in. In reality, the referendum was probably a welcome distraction.

 And yeah, Colau probably conducted herself better than anybody during the crisis, but it has probably polarised Catalan society enough for an ERC swing in places like Barceloneta (which we talked about previously). I just didnt think it would be replicated in local elections.  like tack says though we can't be sure until the campaign where people like Valls could be seriously exposed to real problems.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 02, 2018, 06:41:12 PM
How is Colau seen nowadays anyway? I liked her when she came in, but I haven't really caught up with her beyond her getting twisted in knots due to flegs.

I think she is seen as mediocre and as you said, getting twisted in knots because flegs.

The most recient thing I've heard about her is that she changed a street from "Admiral Cervera street" to "Pepe Rubianes street" (a comedian)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascual_Cervera_y_Topete
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepe_Rubianes

During her speech, she called Admiral Cervera a fascist, which makes no sense, mostly since he died in 1909, well before fascism was even invented. He was also a decent general I guess, who fought in the Spanish American war. PP and Cs obviously protested. The Spanish Navy was also unhappy.

I'd say of all the Podemos mayors it's the one I dislike the most. My favourite would probably be Carmena (Madrid).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 02, 2018, 06:55:31 PM
Also, quite a bit of news and polling. First of all, today (technically yesterday as I write this but whatever) was the 2nd of May, Madrid's regional holiday. And so several Madrid polls were done. Here's a summary of all recient Madrid polls

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We also got a poll from Valencia, a Compromís internal

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And as for news, 2 big ones:

First of all, Basque terrorist group ETA has finally announced its official dissolution. Surprisingly there hasn't been much reaction, mostly indifference and the government saying that there should be no concessions, the terrorists have lost and the like.

And also, I think Catalonia is getting closer to getting a government. Because of some quirks involving European arrest orders and Puigdemont's stay in jail, JxCat+ERC now have a plurality, without needing CUP to vote in favour (an abstention would be enough). And they seem to be getting closer to a deal which would put Elsa Artadi as regional president of Catalonia. She does have a good CV, a Harvard doctor apparently and has worked quite a bit in economics. She is currently JxCat's speaker in parliament. She would also be Catalonia's first woman regional president for all what's worth.

Time is ticking after all, they have to elect a regional president before like the 29th of May or so.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 07, 2018, 02:03:54 PM
Electomanía published some very interesting maps about what if only certain age groups were allowed to vote. They don't add stuff we didn't know already (PP strong among the elderly, Podemos among the young), but they are still interesting

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The general pattern seems to be:

PP: Extremely strong among the elderly, but very weak among the young

Podemos: A reverse PP, extremely popular among the young, but very weak among the elderly, to the point where it would get IU-like results

Cs: Strong in all age groups except pensioners where it takes a sharp dip

PSOE: Surprisingly, also strong among all age groups even though it takes a dip among the young.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 08, 2018, 05:57:48 AM
It's been a while since we last got some national polls, but finally we have one

CIS

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Seems like we are headed for a 4 way tie in the short run, with Cs' rise slowing down, PP on free fall, PSOE stagnant or slightly down and Podemos slightly up.

Further questions, party, age and income crosstabs here: http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2018/Documentacion_3210.html

We also got some regional polls

NueveCuatroUno for La Rioja regional elections

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3 way tie on top, Podemos down, the regionalist PR+ manages to get in after falling short for the first time ever in 2015. Cs would act as kingmaker.

Sigma Dos-Las Provincias for Valencian regional elections

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Whether the current government gets a majority or not would be a tossup, a PSOE-Cs government also a possibility


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on May 10, 2018, 04:46:36 PM
Apparently, the Catalan parliament will vote in the next days for Quim Torra as president of the regional govermnent. No idea who he was until today, but the opposition complains about his "sectarian" profile, and he has stated that Puigdemont remains the "legitimate president of the country".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 11, 2018, 06:18:24 AM
Apparently, the Catalan parliament will vote in the next days for Quim Torra as president of the regional govermnent. No idea who he was until today, but the opposition complains about his "sectarian" profile, and he has stated that Puigdemont remains the "legitimate president of the country".

He apparently was the former president of Omnium for a short while. But yeah, I didn't know who he was either. And much of the complaint about his sectarian profile is because he is a hardliner on independence. He has also had several anti-Spanish xenophobic tweets in the past like:

"Spaniards only know how to exploit"
"We've been under a Spanish occupation since 1714"
"If we stay here for a couple more years we will end as crazy as the Spaniards"
"Spaniards in Catalonia are like energy, they don't disappear, they transform"
"Shame is a word Spaniards have deleted from their vocabulary"
"Listening to Albert Rivera speak about morals is like listening to Spaniards talk about democracy"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: EPG on May 11, 2018, 12:41:07 PM
Which is funny, because 99% of the world considers him Spanish.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on May 12, 2018, 02:49:57 AM
Which is funny, because 99% of the world considers him Spanish.

99% of the world are ignorant about lots of things.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 12, 2018, 08:45:28 AM
New poll from Catalonia


Support from independence climbs to 48%

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The soberanists maintain their majority due to an historical result of la CUP (11 deputies, up from 4 in 2017), also Catalunya en Comu gets good results (11 from 8).

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Good results for the soberanists (although not that good for the govern), but a better one for the left.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on May 12, 2018, 10:12:37 AM
Why is CUP rising so much?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 12, 2018, 06:30:00 PM

No idea. Then again it might be just an outlier. Another poll by a different pollster showed CUP exactly where they were in the last election (4%, 4 seats), so I guess they are really somewhere in between. No idea why they are rising though? Maybe the polarized campaign saw CUP leaning voters vote for Puigdemont and now they are coming home?

https://www.electograph.com/2018/04/cataluna-elecciones-autonomicas.html

Also, here's a poll for the Barcelona town hall. Colau goes from winning the election all the way to 4th place (granted, withing the margin of error but still). Meanwhile, PP fails to get a seat for the first time since 1979 and gets literally it's worst result ever.

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on May 13, 2018, 02:11:07 AM
Well CUP are asking their membership whether to vote Porra in as president so they are holding the "process" by the balls...again. We know how this finishes though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 13, 2018, 10:50:20 AM
Well, they decided to abstain, so Torra is going to be the new President


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 13, 2018, 03:03:44 PM
El País strikes back! Metroscopia-El País poll

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https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/05/13/actualidad/1526222522_428410.html

Granted, they are a thrash tier pollster and it's an outlier, but if it's anywhere near correct then I guess RIP Old 2 party system (PP-PSOE): 1982-2020.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 17, 2018, 12:51:32 PM
There's kind of a scandal ongoing in Podemos right now. Apparently Pablo Iglesias and his girlfriend Irene Montero (who is also the speaker of the parliamentary group in Congress) and who are expecting babies, have bought a huge and expensive house (worth 660 000€) in the suburbs of Madrid and lots of people are unhappy.

Many are critizising them, saying that they've basically betrayed everything they've stood for until now, or reposting old tweets from Pablo Iglesias himself, with the most common one being "Would you trust someone with a 600 000€ home with the economic policies of this country?" (criticising when then economics minister Luis de Guindos also bought a 600k € home). I've also seen a couple comparisons drawn to former PM Felipe González, who apparently bought a yacht after he left office. Others have also mentioned the expensive wedding of IU leader Alberto Garzón, which apparently cost 100 000€. In other words, a lot.

Keep in mind that Podemos has usually spoken a lot against money in politics, to the point where their MPs limit themselves to 3 times the minimum salary (which would be around 2500€ a month). So now buying a huge and expensive home in a rich neiughbourhood comes off as quite hypocritical from Iglesias.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RodPresident on May 17, 2018, 01:24:03 PM
There's kind of a scandal ongoing in Podemos right now. Apparently Pablo Iglesias and his girlfriend Irene Montero (who is also the speaker of the parliamentary group in Congress) and who are expecting babies, have bought a huge and expensive house (worth 660 000€) in the suburbs of Madrid and lots of people are unhappy.

Many are critizising them, saying that they've basically betrayed everything they've stood for until now, or reposting old tweets from Pablo Iglesias himself, with the most common one being "Would you trust someone with a 600 000€ home with the economic policies of this country?" (criticising when then economics minister Luis de Guindos also bought a 600k € home). I've also seen a couple comparisons drawn to former PM Felipe González, who apparently bought a yacht after he left office. Others have also mentioned the expensive wedding of IU leader Alberto Garzón, which apparently cost 100 000€. In other words, a lot.

Keep in mind that Podemos has usually spoken a lot against money in politics, to the point where their MPs limit themselves to 3 times the minimum salary (which would be around 2500€ a month). So now buying a huge and expensive home in a rich neiughbourhood comes off as quite hypocritical from Iglesias.
Is Iglesias well paid by HispanTV? I know he presents two programs there.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 19, 2018, 02:02:13 PM
Pablo Iglesias' house stuff has taken an unexpected turn! Apparently after all the drama and internal complaints from some Podemos members (the most prominent one probably being the one from the mayor of Cádiz), he and Montero will put themselves on a referendum upon party members, on whether he should stay as party leader, or resign.

The actual question is: "Do you consider that Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero should stay as secretary general and parliamentary speaker of Podemos?"

Personally, I think he'll easily survive, he wouldn't call the internal referendum if he thought he was going to lose. Plus it would throw Podemos in a lot of disarray 1 year before the regional elections.

Though it's worth mentioning that on the last party vote back in January of 2017, he didn't exactly cruise without opposition, winning only around 54% of the vote, compared to Errejón's 33% and 9% for the anti-capitalists. An upset is extremely unlikely, but I guess not completely so.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/05/19/5b0046ca268e3e0a3b8b4622.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 20, 2018, 05:11:11 AM
Also, while everyone expected article 155 to be lifted shortly, now that Torra has named a new government, PM Rajoy has said he won't lift article 155, as several of his cabinet ministers are in prision or "exiled", and that article 155 will only be lifed when Torra names a proper cabinet.

I'm somewhat surprised by this though not too much. I guess he wants to appear "tough on Catalonia"? PP and Cs seem to be in a competition for that lol. Even PSOE is trying to appear somewhat tough as well! (so much for Sánchez's campaign 1 year ago)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 23, 2018, 01:42:52 PM
The 2018 budget has finally been passed, with the same vote as the 2017 one:

Yes: 176/350 (PP, Cs, PNV, CC, NCa, Foro Asturias, UPN

No: 174/350 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, Compromís, Bildu)

However up until the vote it was unclear whether it would pass or not! PNV had promised not to pass the budget until article 155 was lifted. However they had to break that promise, claiming that "article 155 will be lifted imminently" (not really if Torra keeps behaving like this but whatever)

They did get a lot in the budget, like more money for the Basque Country, or a rise in pensions. Similarly the Canarian parties got more money for the Canary Islands and a rise in the discount for flights to the mainland.

I guess PNV might lose some more nationalist voters to Bildu. However this is a big breath of oxygen for PP, who manages to extend the life of parliament at least until late 2019, something sorely needed as Cs stays high in polls.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2018, 06:17:06 AM
"Socialists file no-confidence motion against PM in wake of Gürtel corruption ruling"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/05/25/inenglish/1527237249_668560.html

The impact of the court ruling on the PP corruption scheme could be devastating for the governing party and might lead toa reshaping of Spanish politics.

Consider this: Mani Pulite was lethal for the Christian Democrats un Italy. The void was filled by Silvio Berlusconi, whose platform can be described as "national populist" with some liberal elements.

In Spain, the conflict on Catalonia plus the corruption in the Popular Party, the inefficacy of the left and a climate of political deadlock are boosting Ciudadanos. The Albert Rivera party was born in Catalonia to oppose Catalan nationalism. On paper, Cs is a liberal party and Rivera claims to be The Spanish version of Emmanuel Macron and Barack Obama. Don't get fooled: Ciudadanos is the new Spanish nationalist right and wants to fill the void that PP is going to left. As a political analyst said recently on the launching of the "España Ciudadana" platform, people was expecting to see the birth of the Spanish En Marche! But on past Sunday Albert Rivera launched "Forza España", with echoes of José Antonio Primo de Rivera ("neither workers nor entrepeneurs, I only see Spaniards") and huge Spanish flags. Cs is right now the preferred party of the big business and the likely winner of a snap election. I feel a huge feeling of gratitude towards Catalan separatists: Cs nationalism is their mirror image


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 25, 2018, 06:28:02 AM
And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on May 25, 2018, 06:29:09 AM
And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 25, 2018, 06:54:44 AM
And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

That's impossible. You need 35 MPs to file a no confidence motion, Cs only has 32. So Cs can't file a no confidence motion alone


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 25, 2018, 06:59:23 AM
HERE WE GO. This can't be more perfect for C's. The election will be called over Catalonia - C's strength, Podemos is in disarray giving them more youth voters, and the motion is a Opposition vote rather than a C's vote that would appear opportunistic.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on May 25, 2018, 07:18:57 AM
And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old

It's not a meme, but a simple fact. Facts do not get old.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 25, 2018, 07:33:38 AM
Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 25, 2018, 08:06:51 AM
Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Does the no confidence motion need a majority of all MPs to carry or just a relative plurality over votes against the motion.  It seems PP can really only count on its own MPs to vote against the motion.   The rest will be a combination of for or abstain but it seems hard to see how PP wins this if the rules say that a relative plurality is enough for the motion to carry.   

On snap election why would that not be a done deal unless PP will back a PSOE administration if the motion carries ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2018, 09:02:27 AM
And just like that Cs has filed its own no confidence motion.

Election time, baby!

Also the “Cs = right-wing nationalists” meme is getting old


Its not a meme, but a simple fact. Facts do not get old.

Oranges didn't file a motion for two reasons: 1) they don't have enough seats 2) that's not their strategy

Cs is asking Mr Rajoy to resign and call elections "within a few weeks", in order to close proceedings concerning the budget and (more importantly) to extend the implementation of article 155 (direct rule) un Catalonia. Cs has a tougher stance than PP in that regard and demands the intervention of central government in regional televisión (TV3, allegedly It has a strong pro-independence bias).

In case Mariano Rajoy doesn't resign within that period of time, Cs could consider to "promote" or "support" a motion of no confidence providing that elections are called immediately.

Also, Cs asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order that Mr Rajoy can resign.

Oranges are unwilling to help Mr Sánchez in his attempt to reach premiership on the backs of"populists" (Podemos) and "separatists" (Catalan nationalists).

As for the"right-wing nationalist meme". Oranges are not as radical as Fidesz or the Austrian 'liberals'. However, the staging of their weekend event suggests that they have more things incommon with Berlusconi's populism than with Macron's "civil patriotism".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on May 25, 2018, 10:14:24 AM
I guess I fail to see how a party dedicated to liberal values, economic liberalism, etc. is comparable to the likes of Marine Le Pen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jeron on May 25, 2018, 02:09:28 PM
Keep in mind everyone that it's far from clear whether the no confidence vote will actually be successful. There are 2 possible ways for the no confidence vote to be successful (176/350 MPs are needed, an overall majority):

PSOE+Cs+Podemos
PSOE+Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV

Also, a no confidence vote just to call a snap election is vastly different from one where PSOE would actually try to govern for a while. It seems PSOE prefers the latter as long as they don't have to deal with the secessionists (though in a break from what PSOE policy used to be, Sánchez is open to that option!). While Cs obviously prefers a snap election.

 

Cs won’t support the no confidence vote so it will all depend on PNV (again)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2018, 03:34:45 PM
I guess I fail to see how a party dedicated to liberal values, economic liberalism, etc. is comparable to the likes of Marine Le Pen.

Cs is not comparable with the likes of Le Pen. I said that they are not radical right-eingers like Fidesz or the Austrian party. Cs is neither xenophobic nor anti-immigration. However, besides liberal values (debatable) and economic liberalism, many people see nationalist and populist elements in them (Berlusconi style). Cs is much of a catch-all-party that appeals to the Spanish national pride and  confronts peripheral nationalism.

Keep in mind that, with regard yo national emblems like the flag and the anthem, the attitude of Spanish people is different from other countries. Due to historical reasons (Franco's regime was nationalistic and appropiated the emblems) and the existence of different national sensibilities within Spain (Basque, Catalan, etc), the national flag and the anthem are not elements of cohesion. In countries like France or the USA it's possible to build national consensus around national emblems. That is not possible in Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 26, 2018, 08:00:49 AM
Worth noting that Fidesz itself started a liberal group of students (funded by Soros, no less) before it took the reigns of power.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 27, 2018, 04:07:27 PM


()

PP way down, if these numbers are accurate, then a C's-PSOE govt will be formed in the event of a snap election...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 27, 2018, 05:55:51 PM
To be fair, El Español-Sociométrica is quite a PP-unfriendly pollster (to the point where they are the only ones that give Vox seats).

Another poll today, this time by NC Report-La Razón shows a radically different picture.

()

However, NC Report did its interviews until the 25th of May, which means that the most recient events like the no confidence proposal were not captured. El Español polled for 1 more day (until the 26th) and claim that of the 1700 interviews, 300 happened after the no confidence vote was proposed.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. PP has certainly lost the 2nd place spot to PSOE by now, but is probably ahead of Podemos.

Also, sidenote:

Iglesias and Montero have won their internal referendum. Turnout was extremely high (180 000 people), the highest in Podemos history. They won the referendum 68-32%. So, higher than the 2017 primary when he only got 55%, but still low especially since a chunk of the vote happened after the no confidence vote and the Gürtel ruling. I'd say that if Podemos gets a bad result, Iglesias should retire


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 27, 2018, 06:26:31 PM
The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 27, 2018, 07:02:22 PM
The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on May 27, 2018, 10:17:45 PM
The no confidence motion depends on the PNV. I really think they would hate to vote against the PP but that would depend on part on the support for the motion in Euskadi. Rajoy (and in general, the spanish right) is deeply unpopular in the basque country, so I think the population will hate if the PNV is saw as a "savior" of Rajoy. What could happen in the regionals of next year? Could Urkullu lost the election? Who would benefit in that case? EH Bildu?

EH Bildu would certainly benefit the most. Maybe PSOE or Podemos also rise a bit but unlikely.

However Urkullu is definitely not losing the election. Current regional Basque polls are predicting PNV going up, not down. I guess it might stall PNV's momentum and bring them back to their 2016 results at worst.

Keep in mind that PNV has been in power every time except for the short 2009-2012 PSOE government propped up by PP, and the 2009 election was already controversial sincer Batasuna and their fake "totally not Batasuna" replacements were banned. PNV is a very flexible party, they have done deals with basically everyone in the Basque parliament, from Bildu (or Batasuna back in the day) to PP, to PSOE and IU

In any case, the next Basque election is not due until late 2020 so it's too early to talk about that.

And I wouldn't be so sure that it depends on PNV. The Catalan nationalists (especially PDECat apparently) are also not very happy with voting for Sánchez. I could see a scenario where the no confidence motion is completely derailed and only PSOE and Podemos vote in favour!

It would still be the most successful no confidence vote in Spanish history though. 156 votes in favour. The current record is the 1980 one against Suárez (152 in favour)

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 28, 2018, 07:13:27 AM
Rivera tells EL Mundo that fefore discussing possible support for Socialist party’s no-confidence motion against Rajoy, it would be necessary to discuss other issues including extension of direct rule of central government in Catalonia. He said it is also key to guarantee that budget bill is passed in Senate
Once those two issues are guaranteed, then Rajoy should call elections.  Should Rajoy refuse to call elections, Ciudadanos will demand Socialists withdraw their motion and submit a new joint non-confidence motion aimed at calling elections.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ethelberth on May 28, 2018, 10:05:00 AM
What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 28, 2018, 10:09:21 AM

Thanks for the answer, it's pretty amazing that party, I think it's by far the most politically successful (and skillful) of Spanish politics (although I hate their approach to politics).

Although I disagree on PdCat, from what I read, although some parts of JuntsxCat (the Puigdemont faction) wouldn't vote for Sanchez, the people from PdCat who are in Spanish congress don't have too much problems supporting the no confidence motion. Probably they could demand some symbolic thing (maybe apologizing to Torrant about calling him Nazi or some promise about the 155) but they could not put too much pressure on Sanchez.

So you think the no confidence motion will not pass?

Yes, there's quite a split between the Puigdemont linked independents and PDECat proper inside PDECat. And I guess ERC is also somewhat divided. But I don't think Sánchez even wants symbolic concessions.

I personally think there's roughly a 50-50 chance of the no confidence vote being successful.Really the only locked votes thus far are:

Yes

PSOE: 84 (duh)
Podemos: 67
Compromís: 4
NCa: 1

No

PP: 134 (duh)
UPN: 2
Foro Asturias: 1
CC: 1

So it's all in the hands of Cs, PNV and to a lesser extent the Catalan nationalists. Bildu is irrelevant. And they seem to want opposite things; PNV is scared of a new election as Cs will be the likely winner and they are a lot harsher on peripheral nationalism than PP and Rajoy while Cs wants one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 28, 2018, 10:21:52 AM
What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on May 28, 2018, 05:49:38 PM
The debate for the motion of no confidence is set for May 31st and June 1st.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 30, 2018, 05:53:11 AM
Apparently Iglesias is planning to submit his own no confidence motion if Sánchez’s fails, basically a Cs-style motion with a figurehead president and immediate elections. Hopefully he’ll get Cs and the PSOE on board with it (but definitely not the PNV). https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-dispuesto-impulsar-elecciones-PSOE_0_776572979.amp.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 30, 2018, 09:29:02 AM


Entirely in the field post-Confidence motions.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on May 30, 2018, 09:48:16 AM
Is it likely that Cs's lead declines during the campaign if a new general election is called?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 30, 2018, 11:33:13 AM
Way too hard to tell. Cs' 2015 campaign was a trainwreck. 2016 was better but still not good.

So far it seems that Cs is bad at running campaigns. However their 2017 Catalan election campaign was really good, basically rallying all unionists behind them. But a Catalan election is very different from a general election.

In my opinion trying to predict how the campaign will go is impossible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: EPG on May 30, 2018, 03:27:05 PM
I can't think of many other campaigns with so much evidence that four parties vied for first place. Maybe the last French first round?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 05:35:35 AM
Pedro Sánchez: "Resign, Mr Rajoy. Resign and this motion ends here and now (...) Your time is over"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ethelberth on May 31, 2018, 07:11:59 AM
What are the basic differences between PP and Ciudanos voters? I mean, after CC spilled out of Barcelona and some bigger cities.

According to the latest CIS poll (April 2018):

Cs performs much better among men than women, PP performs slightly better among women than men

PP voters skew very old, Cs voters are more dispersed by age but with a peak in the middle age vote

PP performs better in rural areas, Cs performs better in suburbs and urban areas

PP performs better among people with no studies or only primary school (which then again, skew older so it's probably a function of age). Cs performs better among people with higher studies.

PP performs better than Cs among retired people, "stay at home mums" and ties among farm workers. Cs performs better than PP among all other socioeconomic groups, but the best results for Cs are among small businessmen, administrative and service personnel, and students

PP beats Cs in the "Old middle class" vote. However, Cs wins easily among the "upper class" and the "new middle class" vote.

So basically, PP is party for Opus Dei members and Ciudanos for Real Madrid fans.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on May 31, 2018, 07:15:36 AM
Why does PP do better among women?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 07:24:37 AM
The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on May 31, 2018, 07:28:08 AM
The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 31, 2018, 07:35:25 AM
The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.

Well, C's isn't really a 'none' vote, it is a right-centrist vote that plays upon the fears of Catalan separatism. C's wants an election right now because Catalonia will be the dominant issue of the campaign, at least at the start, and C's completely owns the Catalan issue inside old Castille. why C's has plenty of Liberal issues on their platform, Catalonia is their Trump card that C's wants to ride all the way to victory.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on May 31, 2018, 08:46:42 AM


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on May 31, 2018, 08:53:38 AM


Maybe this is because women are living longer than man and PP is generally party of the elderly people?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on May 31, 2018, 09:00:54 AM
Socialists Have the Votes to Oust Rajoy, TVE Says: Spain Update
(Bloomberg) -- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces a decisive debate in parliament from Thursday as the Socialist opposition seeks the votes to oust him.
Lawmakers are due to vote on the no-confidence motion Friday and people close to the negotiations have been signaling that Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez is likely to get the support he needs to replace Rajoy as prime minister.
Read More: Rajoy or Not, Spain Bonds Not the Same Kettle of Fish as Italy
Sanchez already has the backing of the anti-establishment group Podemos and Esquerra Republicana, one of two Catalan separatist groups. He needs the other Catalan party, PdeCat, and the Basque Nationalists to clinch it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 31, 2018, 09:02:39 AM
The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.

Rajoy can't call an election if he resigns. If he resigns, it's as if the election happened yesterday. So, consultations with the king, candidate (almost certainly Sánchez) and investiture vote (which this time only requires a simple majority, unlike a no confidence vote). If 2 months after the first vote there is still no PM, new snap election automatically called.

In the mean time, either PM Rajoy or deputy PM Soraya will be acting PM, but neither would have the ability to call an election.

I'm not sure which of the 2 would be the acting PM. Back in 1981 and the 23F coup, Suárez was the acting PM during the coup, not deputy PM Gutiérrez Mellado; until Calvo-Sotelo was elected. However according to some Soraya would be acting PM instead of Rajoy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 31, 2018, 09:08:51 AM
PNV will support the no confidence vote. So unless Rajoy has 5-6 moles inside PSOE, or PDECat or Podemos (which has an internal consultation ongoing though I seriously doubt the Podemos base will vote to keep Rajoy) unexpectedly vote no, it's over.

Only thing which could stop this now is Rajoy resigning. And at best it would mean an election on late August or early September. And at worst Sánchez still PM, but in like 2 weeks instead of tomorrow.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 31, 2018, 09:12:01 AM
Astonishing that Rajoy lasted so long, despite seemingly never being hugely popular and walking through several crises/scandals that would have caused most leaders to be overthrown several times over.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 10:35:39 AM
Happily the time of Mariano Rajoy is over.

Congress of Deputies before the no-confidence vote. The Left, Basque and Catalan nationalists and a Canarian regionalist in favour. PP, its regional allies (UPN and Foro) and Cs against, The Canary Coalition deputy abstains.


()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on May 31, 2018, 11:17:17 AM
Will he resign as PP leader as well?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 11:38:29 AM

Mariano Rajoy has dissapeared. The motion debate is still going on (ERC dpokesman on stage right now), but the PM is not on his seat. Apparently Rajoy won't resign and will be ousted in tomorrow's vote. Nobody knows of he's going to stay as PP leader. Rajoy must be facing a personal drama, analysts say. He thinks the Court ruling doesn't  affect him. He lost the sense of reality. Hybris.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 31, 2018, 11:57:07 AM
So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 12:03:29 PM
Albert Rivera on stage, ostensibly angry at Mariano Rajoy's absence. PM should have taken control, but now is dissapeared and Rivera is left alone defending his vote against the motion. Cs leader says that PNV has been "disloyal". Now Rivera attacks Sánchez. Rivera, guardian of the integrity of Spain. Misplaced by the course of events, he sets up borders with "populists" and"separatists", that is to say the Sánchez's "companions of journey".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 12:06:25 PM
So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Of course there will be a fresh election. The question is when.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: mgop on May 31, 2018, 12:06:49 PM
ciudadanos are over. they voted for rajoy and against elections. their politics represent everything wrong with this world and they are typical establishment party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on May 31, 2018, 12:12:57 PM
So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Legally no, Sánchez could stay until Summer 2020. In practical terms yes, the coalition is very unstable. I'd expect a new election either this winter (late October) or possibly next summer after the EU ones.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 12:23:36 PM
Pedro Sánchez acts as the virtual PM, while Rivera looks like the virtual leader of the opposition. Sánchez is not the best of oatliamentarians, but today he found inspiration against Rajoy and Rivera.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: windjammer on May 31, 2018, 12:51:50 PM
Pedro Sánchez acts as the virtual PM, while Rivera looks like the virtual leader of the opposition. Sánchez is not the best of oatliamentarians, but today he found inspiration against Rajoy and Rivera.
What will be the next coalition?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2018, 01:24:30 PM
Likely there will be a PSOE minority government and not a coalition government. Pedro Sánchez will govern alone for some months, seeking the support of Podemos and  peripheral nationalists. The budget agreed by PP, Cs, PNV and Canarian regionalist will be in force... Unless PP makes use of its majority in the Senate and devolves the Budget total the Congress of Deputies (maybe that won't happening, because the negotiation was hard for PP). It will be very complicated, nearly impossible to sustain a government backed by only 84 Deputies for a long time. Eventully Sánchez will call elections within several months. Maybe he will try to implement some measures of "cleansing" or "regeneration" before, or to implement the rejection to some controversial laws voted by the parliament and vetoed by decree of Rajoy's government.
t


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 31, 2018, 08:54:45 PM
ciudadanos are over. they voted for rajoy and against elections. their politics represent everything wrong with this world and they are typical establishment party.
Congratulations Prime Minister Sanchez.

Knew Ciudadanos were frauds from the moment the lost Osmond brother Rivera reared his head.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: parochial boy on June 01, 2018, 03:09:26 AM
So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 01, 2018, 04:15:58 AM
So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

Sanchez doesn't win from this that much. He wanted to be PM desperately but now he is walking on a tightrope and his only shot at PM is going to be his attempt to negotiate a new constitution with his seperatist "allies" in the Congress on one side and the PP in the Senate on the other. Its simply unfeasible and he will fail, even if he is saying the right things. There is a reason Rajoy did not resign and call elections : the PP want Sanchez and the PSOE to fail first.

Rivera probably has the best cards to play but he made a major mistake supporting Rajoy rather than the motion to censor him. For all the (ironic) "Catalufo" schtick he gets from populares, it is a classic example of Rivera not seeing the bigger political picture and thinking the world revolves around Catalonia. Sanchez schooled him yesterday in the debate. If it does go to elections he might be the big winner but he is still capable of making the campaign a referendum about Catalonia again, and that may only work in Catalonia.

As long as Iglesias is head of Podemos people will reference his new house and he will lose the argument. It happened again just this morning. Its a shame, because Podemos are the ones bringing up real problems in Spanish society (disposable contracts worse than almost anywhere in Europe, an unskilled generation staying and a skilled one leaving, housing bubbles forming up again and the incestuous relationship between the banks and the politicians looking for funds for their new "projects") rather than nationalist pissing contests.

I guess the big winner is Feijoo, the Galician minister who will prbably next PP leader. PP seem to be immune to corruption scandals and he will likely come across as the most mature next to Rivera, Sanchez and Iglesias. And the Catalan nationalists who will recuperate their Govern powers at the very least. Then I fear there will be another Vox surge.


EDIT : and the obvious big winner, the PNV and the Basque COuntry as a whole : http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180601/443973609409/mocion-censura-pnv-aitor-esteban.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 01, 2018, 05:47:25 AM
It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Some somewhat interesting sideffects:

Mariano Rajoy becomes the 3rd shortest lived PM after the 2 UCD prime minsters (Adolfo Suárez, Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo).

Similarly, Sánchez becomes the 1st PM to get there via no confidence vote (duh) and the 2nd "unelected" PM (after Calvo Sotelo).

Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

If using US-style generations, Pedro Sánchez would be the first Gen X Prime minister (born 1972).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Diouf on June 01, 2018, 05:52:02 AM
It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 01, 2018, 06:03:08 AM
It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?

It does have electronic voting, however the roll call is apparently used in special occasions like this one, or like when electing a PM.

Similarly, secret ballots are used when electing the Congress president.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 01, 2018, 06:16:01 AM
Is there any chance he calls a new election?



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 01, 2018, 06:30:25 AM
Is there any chance he calls a new election?



In the very short term? (ie days or weeks). Probably not. In fact one of the promises he made was that he would call an election at some point, but not inmediately.

There's no way Sánchez is lasting until 2020 though. I'd say the next election will probably be in like Autumn 2019 at the latest.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 01, 2018, 07:10:22 AM
So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

It's uncertain, uncharted territory. Pedro Sánchez is playing a risky game and by the moment he's winning. He had to play the card of the no-confidence motion for two reasons: 1) moral imperative 2) PSOE desperately needs to pull itself out of irrelevance. Let's remember that in the PSOE leadership contest Mr Sánchez was reelected on a leftist platform not so far from Podemos, including the acceptance of the multinational character of Spain ("estado plurinacional"). The notion of multinationality ("plurinacionalidad") is very controversial: it is disgusting not only for PP and Cs, but for many socialists aligned with regional 'barons' like Susana Díaz or representatives of the PSOE's 'Old Senate' like former Deputy PM Alfonso Guerra. Notice that Díaz and Guerra are from Andalusia, the main socialist stronghold in Spain. However, events in Catalonia have forced the PSOE to keep the  idea of the "multinationality" in a drawer. Given the gravity of the situation created by the September and October events which ended in the unilateral declaration of independence and the imposition of direct rule by the central government (article 155), Pedro Sanchez was left with no option but to support Rajoy and the reestablishment of the 'constitutional order' in Catalonia. The speech of king Felipe days after the October 1 illegal referendum was key in calling PSOE to "order". By the moment that Pedro Sánchez regained the PSOE leadership his main obsession was Podemos. Since the Catalan crisis intensified past year and Cs started booming in opinion polls as a consequence, his nightmares are tinted in orange.

The motion succeed because the support of Catalan nationalists forced PNV to make a decision. PNV voted in favour for two reasons: 1) public opinion in the Basque Country  2) fear of a snap election that would bring Cs to power. Albert Rivera is like Satan for Basque nationalists, for obvious reasons. Cs is fiercely opposed to the special tax system of the Basque Country, deemed as a privilege. "Free and Equal!*" claims Rivera. Neither PSOE nor PNV want immediate elections. On the other hand, the Catalan government is about to start functioning again once the "supremacist" premier Quim Torra has appointed regional ministers without legal problems. Pedro Sánchez made no concessions to Catalan separatists during the motion debate, but he said that he will meet Torra, who has been called "racist" by Pedro Sánchez due to some abominable expressions the Puigdemont's "vicarious" president used in old articles or tweets. One could say that regardless differences and the lack of personal affinity, institutional dialogue must be recovered at all costs.

Needless to say the political situation looks terribly complicated and future developments unpredictable.

*"Libres e Iguales" is the name of a platform led by former PP deputy Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo, known by her hardline stances on the Catalan question and linked to José María Aznar and the FAES foundation.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on June 01, 2018, 07:17:27 AM
Will be curious to see what the polls shows in response to this.  I would imagine a surge of support for Cs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on June 01, 2018, 09:57:45 AM
None of the parties who voted for the no-confidence want elections right now, the PSOE and Podemos are too low in the polls, and Basques and Catalans are afraid of a Cs victory. So I assume a PSOE government can survive until the first big obstacle  (the 2019 budget for example).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 01, 2018, 09:58:44 AM
If elections were to be hold today, I would vote PSOE. Tomorrow I don't know, but I feel a lot of gratitude right now. Rajoy is gone. Thank you, Mr Sánchez.

These are the measures Pedro Sánchez wants to implement (in Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/programa-Sanchez-medidas-adoptara-presidencia_0_777273218.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 01, 2018, 10:29:29 AM
Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

Romania is bigger.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 01, 2018, 10:40:39 AM
I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Zinneke on June 01, 2018, 02:31:30 PM
I assume we’ll see Cs suffer in terms of polling numbers because a) it’s likely to happen after riding high for so long and b) chances are some will punish them for not voting for the motion.

Also, I would assume Sanchez will wait until PSOE’s polling numbers rise (which there is a chance of now that they’re in govt) to call a new election.

Depends on the region. His poll numbers might rise in Catalonia for being the moderate hero who engaged in dialogue. Andalucia on the other hand, after seeing the Basque country (the third richest community) get a special hand out...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on June 01, 2018, 05:39:58 PM
What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition. Until October, Sanchéz will probably hold on but then you have the negotiations for the 2019 budget, and how can five parties with completely different agendas agree on a common budget? Yes, Rajoy had to go. He's time was up, but for someone who had survived so many times, he thought he was immortal. Well, no one is, especially Rajoy because he made his own bed, so to say. But now, Spain switched from a lame duck PP minority government to a lame duck PSOE super-tiny minority government. Seriously, even Costa's PS has more MPs than PSOE, and they aren't the biggest party in the Portuguese Parliament.

My guess is that elections will still be held this year, by November or December. January 2019 the latest. We'll see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on June 01, 2018, 07:59:56 PM
Sanchez says he intends to serve the balance of the parliamentary term, but yeah that looks next to impossible. But if he does somehow pull it off he'd surely go down as one of the most skilled European politicians of our time. He already managed to regain leadership of the party he led to its worst result ever against some very notable rivals and then managed to assemble enough support to become PM while having less than a quarter of seats in Parliament, so who knows...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 02, 2018, 01:50:50 AM
What a mess Spain is in....

I think Sanchéz will find himself whitout any real power. First, he will govern with the budget, which is the center piece of every governmental agenda, approved by PP, C's, PNV and that his party voted against. UP and other parties have already sent a motion against the budget to the Senate. Awkward. Then, his coalition is really shaky, to say the least. Mixing UP, the Catalan independents plus the PNV, a center-right regionalist party, in the same bag, well... it's really a Frankenstein coalition (...)

I understand your point of view and it's possible that I could agree with you on certain points, at least to some extent. As I said before, the situation is extremely complicated and prospects very uncertain. It's true that a government supported by less than 1/4 of the parliament is going to be very fragile. Also, it's true that the coalition supporting the no-confidence motion is very heterogeneous. However, I dislike the expression "Frankenstein coalition". It has been used by PP and Cs, as well by Madrid newspapers in order to question the legitimacy of the motion. When they are not conservative papers that support PP with various degrees of bigotry (all the papers that have used the word "Frankenstein"), they are rooting for Cs (case of El País).

Pedro Sánchez asked Rajoy to resign during the motion debate, but the ousted PM refused because it would have implied to accept his political responsibility in the PP corruption scheme. I think the ruling makes clear that Rajoy lied when he testified before the Court, as well establishes that Rajoy and other PP leaders received bonus payments from former treasurer Bárcenas (now convicted). Rivera, on the other hand, asked Rajoy to resign and asked Pedro Sánchez to withdraw his motion in order to put an "instrumental candidate" who called a snap election. I think Rajoy had every right to refuse, even though I find his attitude deplorable and morally reprehensible. Also, Albert Rivera has every right to demand Sánchez to do whatever he wishes. However, Cs lacks the strength to impose the political agenda because its good poll showing doesn't give seats in parliament. In case Rajoy had resigned, the course of events would have led to new elections. He refused and the motion followed its course. Pedro Sánchez has every right to make his attempt, even though governing is going to be a very difficult task. I'd say that the only thing that could bring the heterogeneous coalition together is the current opinion polling, which places Cs as the inevitable coalition partner in any government formation (either PP-Cs, PSOE-Cs or vice-cersa). Personally I don't want to see Rivera in government, so I'll send Sánchez my best wishes.

On a side note, I think the current government in Denmark is backed by 30% of parliament. I'm not implying that the political situations are remotely comparable. Denmark looks much more stable right now. However, minority governments are not uncommon in Europe.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 02, 2018, 09:08:17 AM
"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 02, 2018, 10:16:19 AM
The thing is, this really isn't a government - it is a ramshackle lean-to designed to last as long as it needs too. For example, I doubt the coalition can pass the 2019 budget, especially with the opposition senate. So like others have said, I suspect this government will only last until the election is most favorable to PSOE - which probably means a reasonable lead over C's. With the way how polls have been for a while, the only two governments that could be formed are some orientation of PP+C's or  C's+PSOE. If a red/Orange government has to be formed, then it makes sense Sanchez wants to be the one dictating the terms rather than C's.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on June 02, 2018, 10:56:50 AM
It's interesting to see the non-independentist media in Catalonia (particularly El Periodico and La Vanguardia) very hopeful about the Sanchez government. Not that they expect a successful government, but you can see for the first time that both parts are interested in talk, and we can expect for the first time (baby) steps to ease the situation. Their "happines"" reflects the terrible environment Catalonia is  


Honestly I wish the best to Sanchez, and I don't care if he govern with the PP budget. He needs to advance on some thing (end the Mordaza law and eliminate some vetoes). I really hope that the main loser (besides PP) is Cs. PSOE need to take votes from them. When we see that happening, that's the time to call elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on June 02, 2018, 01:27:55 PM
"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.


Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 04, 2018, 12:35:39 PM
While the full Sánchez cabinet won't be presented until tomorrow, we do have at least 1 name fully confirmed.

Josep Borrell, PM candidate for the 2000 election, minister of public works under Felipe González and former speaker of the European parliament, will be Sánchez's minister of foreign affairs.

He is also famous for his speeches at the 2 large unionist rallies in Catalonia, back when the issue was at its peak.

Borrell was interestingly the only former PSOE leader who supported Sánchez back on the primaries, and his own career has some similarities with Sánchez's; particularly his 2000 run, when he defeated the establishment candidate Almunia. Borrell had to drop out later and make Almunia the PM candidate as he was uncomfortable without having support from the establishment and a corruption scandal involving some of his colleagues appeared.

As for other stuff about the Sánchez cabinet, we also fully know that it will have the same number of  women and men, just like the Zapatero cabinets (funnily enough, González's first cabinet had 0 women whatsoever XD). He will apparently also recover the "Equality ministry" which was short lived under Zapatero's 2nd term. Finally, the number of ministries will probably be increased.

In any case though, all doubts will be solved tomorrow.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 04, 2018, 01:20:33 PM
Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 04, 2018, 01:25:27 PM
Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on June 04, 2018, 01:29:33 PM
Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

This government probably can't hope to pass the 2019 budget, and you think constitutional reform is on the cards? Sanchez wants to win the inevitable upcoming elections and end up forming a PSOE-C's collation (Podemos is too far back) - not rock the boat and switch the roles around.

Besides, PP still controls the senate.

Probably not, but you could start rolling out ideas before the government's inevitable collapse; it would help if the government doesn't just punt on these important issues. Maybe what Spain needs is an Iceland style constitutional assembly (ignore the fact that that ended up scrapped by the PP and IP) or whatever.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 04, 2018, 02:46:13 PM
Will Sanchez tackle constitutional reform?

What are the people's thoughts here about federalising Spain as a solution to the Catalonian Problem?

The first one no, no way Sánchez tackles constitutional reform. It's one of PSOE's projects but with such an unstable government there's no way he does that. Plus it would be very controversial and he lacks the numbers anyways (such a reform would need PP+PSOE at the very least)

As for federalising Spain, both PSOE and Podemos are in favour of that. However neither has developed their proposals. In PSOE's case they are split on whether regions should have financial autonomy (which would be harmful to PSOE's base in the poor rural south) and on whether that federalism should be symmetrical or assymetrical. And of course which places of Spain qualify as "nations" as opposed to mere "regions". Have heard even less from Podemos, other than that they want a plurinational Spain and that they accept the right for regions to become independent, which PSOE doesn't.

I guess secessionists and nationalists would probably vote for it but feel it's underwhelming unless it includes a referendum. And of course both PP and Cs are very much opposed.

And this also translates to polling. From the latest CIS poll (April 2018) here's support for expanding devolution or centralizing Spain by party:

()

So apparently centralism has more support than further federalism, but the status quo still beats both (though support for it is slowly declining iirc).

Interestingly, both PP and Cs have a majority in favour of further centralism, while PSOE has a majority for the status quo even though they are pushing for further federalism. And even in Podemos federalists only barely beat the status quo 36-35 for the main branch (their Catalan, Valencian and Galician semi-independent branches all have much better numbers).

By region we don't have any recient numbers, there are polls from 2015. In any case, federalists only beat centralists in the Basque Country, Catalonia, Navarra and the Balearic Islands iirc. Though centralists only were an overall majority of the electorate in Castille Leon and surprisingly Aragon.

And to answer your question about a constitutional assembly, that's never going to happen lol. Most likely is that PP-Cs start yelling "Sánchez will turn Spain into Venezuela!!!11!" and win. Not to mention that there's no real way to do that. I guess they could call a standard snap election and call it like that. But I don't think even Podemos would create a "constitutional assembly".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 05, 2018, 06:48:12 AM
Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

In any case, it seems the frontrunners to replace Rajoy are probably former deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and regional president of Galicia Alberto Nuñez Feijoo. I'd say Feijoo would give more of a "renovation" ambient, but he has an infamous photo with Marcial Dorado, a drug trafficker. Soraya is probably too close to Rajoy and would give less renovation but still.

There is also the possibility of someone else winning instead though.

What I'm wondering is how they'll elect their new leader. Will Rajoy simply appoint someone and the party blindly accept it? (like how Fraga appointed Aznar and Aznar appointed Rajoy). Or will there be a contested congress?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 05, 2018, 07:41:28 AM
"Sánchez vs Frankenstein"

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180602/443990630548/sanchez-presidente-gobierno-relevo-moncloa.html

The expression "Frankenstein government" was coined by former PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in 2016 to fescribe the attempt of bringing Podemos and Cs together made by Pedro Sánchez. The worst enemies are always in Tour party.

Now the frame or the narrative of the Spanish Right and its allied media is: "Goodbye Rajoy. Welcome Frankenstein".

Certain Paulo Portas coined the expression "governo geringonça" in Portugal. Portas must be very smart, witty and Sharp, just like Pérez Rubalcaba.

The task of Pedro Sánchez is going to be much more difficult than the task of António Costa in 2015, ir the task of Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004.


Didn't knew the term "Frankenstein" was given by the C's friendly press. I thought El País was pró-PSOE, at least they were in the past. Público and Diário de Notícias, the most PS friendly press here in Portugal, are also using the term "Frankenstein", thus my surprise. Yes, Paulo Portas was smarter than the PSD around here. He understood that the "geringonça" would prevail and left the stage as fast as he could. It was reported here, that he warned Rajoy on what he should or shouldn't do, after the inconclusive Spanish 2015 elections.

I agree with you that Sanchéz task is 10 times more harder than Costa. Costa was lucky to have a PSD so bitter and angry at him, that they predicted the coming of the devil, meaning recession, and went full blown pessimistic, giving space for Costa, when businesses understood that nothing would change under him, to gain from the good economic news, that if the PSD was as smart as Paulo Portas, would on the contrary benefit the PSD. The rest is history. A word of advice for C's and PP, don't go to the speech that everything would be a disaster with PSOE. It will, most certainly, backfire. The PP could also rise if they change their leader to either Feijóo of Sáenz de Santamaría, and bring back many PP voters that are trending C's.

I continue with my view that by late this year, earlier 2019, a election will be held. Sanchéz could delay a bit to coincide with the May EU and local elections, in order for PSOE to gain a bit in the polls. They will gain some points because power makes you rise in the polls, it always does.

El País has been always regarded as a pro-PSOE newspaper, although I'd say that its editorial line was more close to social-liberalism than socialdemocracy and in the last years it has been shifting to the right. Editors of El País used to claim that Spain needs a "modern" and "liberal" centre-right party similar to other mainstream parties in Western Europe. El País and the rest of Madrid papers and media outlets backed Susana Díaz against Pedro Sánchez. In the last times its editorials have been very well tunned with Cs stances. It's not a secret that Cs has a powerful media and business support.

However, the tactical mistakes of Albert Rivera in the no-confidence motion have received criticism in El País. As well, one of its star columnists criticized the "jingoist" opening ceremony of  España Ciudadana (aimed to be a "civil society" platform in the style of En Marche!). El País editor Antonio Caño wrote an opinion article advising Sánchez to follow a "modern" and "reformist" socialdemocratic line because that's the best way to fight the dangers of "populsim" and "nationalism"...

"The defeat of Rivera" by José Ignacio Torreblanca

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/03/opinion/1528056415_470501.html

"The jingoist delusion of Rivera" by Rubén Amón

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/05/21/opinion/1526896633_872322.html

"There's a path to the left" by Antonio Caño

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/01/opinion/1527879683_678856.html

Let's say it's a social-liberal pro-establishmnt paper that is against Catalan separatism and Podemos' left-wing populism, between the right wing of PSOE and the oranges.

Everything points that PP is going to implement a tough and aggresive opposition. PP needs to mask its terrible state of disorientation and confusion, as well to play a leading role against Cs.

Oranges are blurred and confused right now, but I doubt they are dead. PP is clearly in decline and its voter base is ageing, but its territorial implemenrtation is very robust. Núñez Feijoó seems to be very well placed in the sucession line, while the hostility between Soraya Sáez de Santamaría and María Dolores de Cospedal plays against both women.

Possibly Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE aim to last until the next year elections have passed. Regional. Local and European elections are scheduled in 2019. We'll see...

I am beginning to like the idea of a "Frankenstein Government". The appointment of Josep Borrell in Foreign Affairs is great news, in my opinion.





Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 05, 2018, 07:43:14 AM
Mariano Rajoy has announced his intention to leave politics and stop being leader of PP. He will shortly call an extraorinary party congress for him to be replaced.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180605/444120854458/mariano-rajoy-presidencia-pp-sucesion.html

Wow


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 06, 2018, 08:08:58 PM
Today, PM Sánchez finally presented his entire cabinet. There will be 17 ministers. One of the more interesting things is that there will be 11 women and 6 men, actually a world record! So much for equality I guess XD

The other interesting thing is that this is quite a technocratic cabinet. Many ministers have experience on their related fields and there's a sizable amount of (nominal) independents (7), while there are few career politicians.

Anyways, here is the entire cabinet:

Prime Minister: Pedro Sánchez. Former MP for Madrid (2013-2016), secretary general of PSOE

()

Deputy Prime Minister and minister of equality: Carmen Calvo. Doctor in constitutional law, former minister of culture (2004-2007). Helped Sánchez when he ran for his old job, and helped negotiate article 155.

()

Minister of education and government speaker: Isabel Celaá. Former regional minister of education in the Basque Country (2009-2012).

()

Minister of Agriculture, fishing and alimentation: Luis Planas. Former regional minister of Agriculture in Andalucía (2012-2013). Ran against Susana Díaz in PSOE-A's regional leadership election. Has also had some agriculture related jobs in the EU.

()

Minister of foreign affairs, European Union and cooperation: Josep Borrell. Former speaker of the European Parliament (2004-2007). Former minister of public works under Felipe González (1993-1996). Failed 2000 PM candidate. He is also quite known for his unionist speeches in Catalonia.

()

Minister of Science, innovation and universities: Pedro Duque. An astronaut for the ESA and an aerospace engineer. Probably one of the most interesting ministers

()

Minister of culture and sports: Màxim Huerta. Journalist who worked for quite a while in a morning program. He has apparently written 5 books as well. Another interesting minister.

()

Minister of defense: Margarita Robles. Speaker of the PSOE parliamentary group. Another of the people who were behind Sánchez the entire time and part of his close group. Also a high ranking member of the ministry of the interior under González (basically "deputy minister") and a supreme court judge.

()

Minister of economics and business: Nadia Calviño. Economist and the head of the bugdet direction of the European Comission.

()

Minister of public works: Jose Luis Ábalos. Another of the closest group of Sánchez supporters. MP for Valencia.

()

Minister of the treasury: María Jesús Montero. Regional minister of the treasury under Susana Díaz (2013-2018), also regional minister of healthcare under various andalusian governments (2004-2013). She also has a degree in medicine.

()

Minister of industry, commerce and tourism: María Reyes Maroto. Regional MP in Madrid's regional assembly and speaker of the budget committee in Madrid's regional assembly.

()

Minister of the interior: Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Former judge of the Audiencia Nacional and member of the general council of the judiciary (appointed by PP interestingly!)

()

Minister of justice: Dolores delgado. A prosecutor specialized in fighting against yihadist terrorism. Member of the prosecutor's council.

()

Minister of territorial policy and public function: Meritxell Batet. Number 1 member of parliament for Barcelona. Former teacher of administrative law and of constitutional law at Pompeu Fabra university in Barcelona.

()

Minister of healthcare, consumption and social welfare: Regional minister of healthcare in the Valencian Community (2015-2018). She's also been an MP in Congress (2004-2015)

()

Minister of labour, inmigration and social security: Magdalena Valerio. Former Regional minister of labour (2005-2007); tourism (2007-2008) and justice (2008-2010) in Castille-La Mancha and former MP for Guadalajara (2011-2016)

()

Minister of ecological transition: Teresa Rivera. Former secretary of state of the environment and climate change, and former  head of the Spanish office of climate change (2004-2011)

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 06, 2018, 08:13:59 PM
I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 07, 2018, 07:07:33 AM
I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.

Sánchez wants to convey the idea of a solid and technically skilled government that represents the modern Spain, in contrast with the old-fashioned XIX Century style of Matiano Rajoy and the low profile of many members of his cabinet, hardly known by the Spanish public. Also, Pedro Sánchez stated that feminist demonstrations on March 8 marked a turning point in Spain and his government wants to reflect changes in the Spanish society. There are many skilled women in society, but there are few in powerful positions due to the so-called "glass ceiling". The high number of women is a gesture, a declaration of intent. Given its fragile parliamentary minority, this government will have to negotiate a lot and make a lot of gestures on order to gain the public opinión.

My first impression is very positive. I like all appointmrnts with the possible exceptions of Maxim Huerta and judge Grande-Marlaska.

EDIT: The moderate profile of the cabinet and the inclusion of people like Nadia Calviño, Josep Borrell otr Grande-Marlaska seem to be aimed to fight in the centre against Ciudadanos. The feminist character of this government appeals to young women, because Sánchez felt that PSOE was losing their vote after March 8.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 07, 2018, 07:47:51 AM
Unfortunately or, perhaps, fortunately, depending on your perspective on the purpose and strategy of governance, PSOE may have had poor timing in executing its parliamentary coup of the PP. Strangely, the brewing problems that are affecting emerging markets in Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and others may be of great importance to Spain, as the Spanish financial sector is very exposed to credit shocks. This is not immediately obvious, especially as business journalists have decided that the problems that began in Argentina and Turkey are isolated, even as currency devaluations in emerging markets have become common, suggesting that there is some sort of "contagion" effect but it's certainly the case that what occurs in Brazil and Turkey cannot be isolated from Spain:
()

One may argue that Spain may be spared this nasty shock to its financial sector on the basis that, individually, a deep recession in any given emerging economy would not be enough to bring its banks under but there appears to be a simultaneity of shocks in emerging markets. Suffice it to say that I hope that the PSOE government is prepared for this, the Spanish financial sector has, again, taken on a great deal of risk. I'd post this elsewhere but I'm not sure if it merits a separate thread - I felt that it ought to be considered here, as, in some ways, there is an eerie resemblance between contemporaneous events and the emerging markets crises of the 90s. If the resemblance is not merely coincidental, Spain will almost certainly be affected.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 07, 2018, 10:07:56 AM
The current period of (unequally distributed) growth in Spain is not going to last forever. Knowing that the Spanish banking sector is exposed to turbulence coming from emerging markets should be a matter of concern. I ignore to what extent the new economic decision makers are aware or concerned by that. It's like nothing has been learnt from the last crisis...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 08, 2018, 03:29:08 AM
New government takes office

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528359765_948129.html

Quote
On Thursday morning, the ministers of the new Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez were officially sworn in at the Zarzuela royal palace in the presence of King Felipe VI. The new lineup has the highest number of female ministers in any government in Europe with 11 of 17 ministries led by women – 61% of the Cabinet (including the prime minister himself)
(,,,)

Spaniards trust more Pedro Sánchez government than Rajoy's for the resolution of problems, poll says

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/06/08/politica/1528435287_628929.html

42.8% say the new administration will do better, 24.5% just as the old, 24,4% worse

The main concerns of the government should be:

Unemployment and job insecurity 53.4%, pensions 37.9%, fight against corruption 37.9%, normalization of Catalonia 30.0%, tackling poverty and inequality 29.9%

Soledad Gallego-Díaz set to become the new editor-in-chief of El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528370083_541641.html

Quote
Journalist Soledad Gallego-Díaz has been nominated as the new editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS. Staff at the media organization will cast a non-binding vote on the appointment today, paving the way for Gallego-Díaz to replace Antonio Caño at the head of the newspaper

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   





Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 08, 2018, 01:01:35 PM
Quote
Journalist Soledad Gallego-Díaz has been nominated as the new editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS. Staff at the media organization will cast a non-binding vote on the appointment today, paving the way for Gallego-Díaz to replace Antonio Caño at the head of the newspaper

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 08, 2018, 01:57:51 PM
Quote
Journalist Soledad Gallego-Díaz has been nominated as the new editor-in-chief of EL PAÍS. Staff at the media organization will cast a non-binding vote on the appointment today, paving the way for Gallego-Díaz to replace Antonio Caño at the head of the newspaper

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?

Well, Luis Cebrían, the owner of PRISA (the holding that has El País and other media like the radio station Cadena SER) reciently retired at age 73.

For another comparison, Pedro J. Ramirez, another famous journalist (former head of El Mundo and now head of El Español), is currently 66 years old and is still the boss of a newspaper.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 10, 2018, 07:47:04 AM
We finally got our first polls after the new government was unveiled. And PSOE gets its first leads in a poll for the first time since 2015!

NC Report for La Razón

PP: 25.5% (105-108)
PSOE: 24.9% (96-99)
Cs: 21.0% (69-72)
UP: 16.7% (50-53)

ERC: 3.1% (10-11)
PDECat: 1.5% (5-6)
PNV: 1.2% (6)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (2)
CC: 0.3% (1)

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE: 28.8% (118)
PP: 25.6% (101)
Cs: 21.1% (70)
UP: 13.1% (34)

ERC: 3.2% (13)
PDECat: 1.6% (5)
PNV: 1% (5)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (3)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Invymark for La Sexta

PSOE 25,1%
PP 23,7%
C’s 22,2%
UP 17,3%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 11, 2018, 09:41:36 AM
Well, we now have a date for the PP congress which will elect a new party leader: the congress will take place on the 20th and 21st of July.

And in a very interesting move for PP, there will actually be a primary! Granted it's technically non-binding; but just like in PSOE's case I don't think the party leaders will overturn the results even if they somehow lost to some insurgent (which I definitely don't see happening in PP).

Not only that, but it will be a somewhat complicated 2 round system. In round 1 all PP party members vote. They get 2 votes: one to elect the delegates to the PP party congress (kind of similar to US primaries, except the delegates are unbound?) and in the 2nd they vote directly for party leader. There are 3 ways to win in round 1 with the vote of the PP base:

Win more than 50% of the vote
Win in more than half of Spain's provinces
Beat your closest rival by at least 15%

If no candidate fulfills at least one of those requirements, the final vote between the 2 candidates will be decided in PP's party congress by the delegates, though I guess the runner up will probably drop out.

Considering the rules, I'd say it would be hard to get a "brokered convention" and have the delegates decide. Applying those rules to PSOE's primaries, Sánchez would have won in round 1 both times, even in 2014 when he didn't get a majority.

The full calendar is:

June 18-20: Candidates present their candidacies
25th of June: Last day to register to vote for PP party members
5th of July: PP party members vote
20th/21st of July: PP party congress. Delegates vote on the definitive leader (this vote could be simply symbolic with only 1 candidate or an actual decision)

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/proceso-sustituto-Rajoy-votacion-militantes_0_781122215.html




Also, we have a new poll which basically only confirms what we already knew; PSOE is ahead now out of nowhere. Interestingly, "others" is at 3% and all the nationalists and PACMA aren't in others. I  guess this is a very good poll for Vox, they could easily be getting 1 seat and 2% even if this poll doesn't show them separately

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE: 25.8% (102-105)
PP: 24.3% (98-102)
Cs: 21.1% (65-68)
UP: 17.4% (50-54)

ERC: 3.0% (11)
PDECat: 1.5% (6)
PNV: 1.2% (6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PACMA: 1.3% (0)
Others: 3%

This poll should almost certainly show something along the lines of "Vox: 1.7% (1)" but it just groups them on others IMO. Unless fringe stuff like PCPE, UPyD or Zero Cuts-the Greens are out of nowhere polling in the high 0.x% which I don't see happening.



Finally, the infamous ship stranded in the Mediterranean after both Italy and Malta rejected it will go to Spain. I wonder if this will cause a lot of inmigration now. If it does, the right will probably go up and Vox will have the best opportunity of its lifetime.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 11, 2018, 11:22:15 AM
With the news that Sánchez is taking in the rejected migrants, could Vox’s numbers rise if this continues?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 11, 2018, 12:36:07 PM
Maybe, maybe not. There might not even be a backlash against the left at all! (though I'll admit this is unlikely). Maybe Cs or PP start campaigning against inmigrants and get those votes. Or maybe Vox does rise after all and starts actually registering in polls.

Worth noting that as of now, inmigration is only a top 3 worry for about 3% of Spaniards. Back when inmigration was at its peak (2006-2007) it was a top 3 priority for about 35% of Spaniards. And yet there was no far right populist party rising in the mid 00s.

Closest thing was PxC, a local party in Catalonia which managed some local success and came close to getting seats in 2010, but fizzled out once independence became the number 1 issue there.

However if literally everywhere else in Europe is any indication, they will rise unless Cs/PP manage to steal their voters. If Spain gets a migrant crisis (with such boats coming every week or maybe every few days), and people get worried about it, I could see them getting around 4% of the vote and 4-5 seats but that's incredibly unlikely. Most likely they might rise slightly in the popular vote (say, up to 2.5%) but still be stuck at 1 seat or possibly 2.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 12, 2018, 07:04:56 AM
If Matteo Salvini is Trump, then Pedro Sánchez is Trudeau


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 13, 2018, 11:43:50 AM
The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on June 13, 2018, 06:12:51 PM
This isn't even including the fact that the hugely popular Spanish national team goalkeeper David de Gea was accused by Sanchez of having sexually assaulted a minor (the allegations were false). Sanchez never apologized, and now De Gea is demanding one on the eve of the World Cup: http://www.the42.ie/de-gea-demands-public-apology-from-spanish-prime-minister-4065761-Jun2018/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 15, 2018, 03:43:47 PM
The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD

It's a good sign that Maxim Huerta resigned so quickly. He didn't tell Sánchez he had an affair with tax authotities. It's obvious that Sánchez lacked the time to verify the background of Mr Huerta, who is his friend. There has been a certain degree of improvisation in this appointment, possibly due to lack of time. Maxim Huerta was not the first choice, apparently the post was offered to others before. José Guirao, a former durector of Reina Sofía Contemporary Arts Museum, was appointed in the same day replacing Huerta. Opposite profiles: cultural manager Vs journalist, writer and celebrity.

The standard has been set high. In demanding the resignation of Mr Huerta, PP, Cs and Podemos comit themselves to act in a similar way when they are in government. That's great news; leaving aside the anazing cynicism of PP.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on June 16, 2018, 12:58:40 AM
Sánchez restored health care under the SNS (Sistema Nacional de Salud) to undocumented immigrants, reversing Rajoy decision that had restricted it to people legally in the country. (http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/06/15/5b23a40946163ff8108b4586.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 16, 2018, 10:44:42 AM
Well, 2 news items today.

First of all, Albert Rivera wants Spain to have a 3% national threshold for general elections, basically as a "stop secessionists" measure. Of course in practice it would be ineffective as they'd simply run in a coalition like they already do in EU parliament elections. But I guess it's noteworthy.

Worth noting that the right wing coalition would have always entered parliament (in fact, CiU alone would have entered parliament several times), and the left wing coalition only sometimes.

It would actually do more harm to small national parties. So Vox and PACMA would have an even harder time getting seats. And historically 3 parties would have dropped out: UPyD (2008), CDS (1982) and FN (1979).

The 2nd news is that we now have our first declared candidate for the PP leadership election: José Ramón García Hernández, MP for Ávila and someone I didn't know until today. No idea if he'll even be allowed on the ballot but there he is.

Former minister of foreign affairs, Jose María Margallo is also collecting the required endorsements to run, but he officially hasn't declared if he will finally run or not. He has said that he wants to stop fmr. deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría at all costs though (they seem to have a very bad relation)

Anyways, Jose Ramón García is a dark horse candidate. That can be a good (a clean candidate) or a bad thing (unknown). Zapatero was also an unknown MP from Leon in 2000 so who knows.

Margallo would be a good candidate, iirc he was one of the ministers with the highest approval ratings. His only problem would be age, he is quite old at age 73.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 18, 2018, 02:54:27 PM
More movement in PP's leadership election.

Pablo Casado, MP for Ávila and one of PP's young faces and one of the better known MPs has decided to run for party leader. This is slightly surprising but of the 3 candidates thus far he is probably the one with the best chance.

However, a more interesting turn comes from regional president of Galicia Alberto Núñez Feijoo, who has decided not to run! He was thus far considered the frontrunner for the leadership election. Now that he is not running, I wonder what will the effect be.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on June 19, 2018, 09:02:50 AM
Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 19, 2018, 09:16:30 AM
Yup, both Santamaría and Cospedal have declared today their intention to run. Assuming everyone who declared eventually gets in the ballot, this will be the most contested leadership election in history, with at least 6 candidates. Thus far the record is the 2000 PSOE leadership election, which had 4 candidates.

Also assuming that one of the frontrunners eventually wins, this will also be the first time a major party is led by a woman and barring a huge PP collapse, the best result for a woman in an election (thus far the record is Rosa Diez's 4.7% so whoever wins will beat that).



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 19, 2018, 05:57:23 PM
Pedro Sánchez intends to last until 2020

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/19/inenglish/1529394392_925595.html

Quote
Pedro Sánchez, who became prime minister of Spain after successfully leading a no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy, on Monday unveiled that he plans to serve out the rest of the term until June 2020.

In his first interview since his inauguration on June 2, the leader of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) said that the decision not to call early elections is based on the need to “normalize” the country’s political life (...)

"Normalization" is badly needed in Catalonia, or in the words of Justice minister Dolores Delgado there's need to "reduce the inflamation" in order to "avoid more pain".

The weakness of PSOE in Congress is well known, but the sucession crisis in PP opens a window of opportunity.

Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.

I think this is going to be a contest between two women who hate each other, with Pablo Casado in the middle as a possible dark horse.

María Dolores de Cosèdal, who resigns as PP secretary general, offers "Victory, Victory and Victory" trying to inpersonate a female version of Winston Churchill.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría vindicates her experence in government and opposition, adressing press in front of the Congress. She offers "modernity" and "integration". She says PP will be soon back in government if they prform a good opposition in Parliament.

Pablo Casado wants ro build the "common house" of the Spanish centre-right where everyone to the right of PSOE feels comfortable. Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.

Sáenz de Santamaría and Cospedal have tried to attract Casado to their side, unsucessfully. Casado is young and promising but jhe has two disadvantages:   

1) He took the same Master at Rey Juan Carlos University that caused the resignation of former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes. Cadado obtained the Master Degree surprisingly quickly and some judge is investigating.

2) He might be seen as too much right-wing, too close to former PM José María Aznar and former Madrid leader Esperanza Aguirre.

Former Foreign Affairs minister José Manuel García-Margallo and the other two candidates (Ramón García Hernández and José Luis Bayo) look like outsiders. García-Margallo has serious differences with Sáenz de Santamaría on the management of the conflict in Catalonia.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 19, 2018, 06:05:30 PM
Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 20, 2018, 08:26:43 AM
Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).

The point is that only Cs is interested in calling new elections. Neither PSOE nor the parties supporting the no-confidence motion want. Neither wants the PP, absorbed in its succession crisis and with corruption trials pending resolution. Moreover, when the high-profile appointments to the cabinet were revealed it became evident that Pedro Sánchez wanted to last. Someone said the new government was designed for the next 5 years, because Pedro Sánchez hopes to win the next election.

Regarding the resignation of Maxim Huerta, who was the Culture and Sports minister for six days,  possibly it had a collateral impact in the PP leadership contest. Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó was the frontrunner, but shockingly he withdrew from the race. Possibly the reasons behind his decision are some old photographs of him with narco Marcial Dorado relaxing on a yacht deck.

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/Feijoo-recordarle-Marcial-Dorado-difamar_0_554345121.html

https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20180615/marcial-dorado-espada-amenaza-feijoo-limpiando-carcel/315219546_0.html

 The images were released by El País a couple of years ago; despite some conmotion they didn't end Feijoó's career. However, the resignation of Maxim Huerta for has set a new standard. If Maxim Huerta had to resign due to his already solved problems with tax authorities, try to imagine what would happen when Núñez Feijoó is proclaimed PP leader and those photographs surface again in the media. Maybe something is changing for good in Spanish politics.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 20, 2018, 09:53:31 AM
Nobody want new elections, but if push comes to shove, I suspect most of the former government would choose them over backing a PSOE budget or high profile proposal. So while Sanchez is setting himself up for a full term, I suspect it is just posturing to make the PSOE look like "the party of stability" and the incumbent when elections eventually come.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on June 21, 2018, 03:18:46 PM
Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.
Can confirm this is still a thing, and I guess this is a real driver of votes. Sort of interesting that this is a political base.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Republican Left on June 25, 2018, 08:51:28 PM
What do you think about the Cs or Ciudades, do you think they're be able to be major gains? Additionally can the PP recover from this? In respect to PM Sanchez, is it his to loses?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Starry Eyed Jagaloon on June 26, 2018, 08:24:29 AM
I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Republican Left on June 26, 2018, 08:34:17 AM
By the way, how's the quest to take away gun rights? Any thoughts on London's knife control? ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2018, 04:51:25 AM
I think the Cs performance depends on whether Santamaria or Cospedal wins the leadership election, with the former likely to take many of their votes.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is possibly the right choice for PP. Among the three top candidates in the leadership contest, Santamaría would be the most competitive candidate in a general election. The former Deputy PM was the member of the Rajoy government with the best approval rates beating María Dolores de Cospedal in every age group and ideological niche (centre-right to far-right), according to the last CIS survey. Also, she is the most popular among those who left PP for Cs. Given that she is perceived as more "liberal" and with a greater degree of "openness" than Cospedal, she's the best choice to regain voters from Cs.

However, I don't think that Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría is the favourite in this race. The outcome of this leadership election is fairly unpredictable, especially when PP lacks of democratic traditions and never held this kind of elections before. As former PP secretary general, Cospedal has a better knowledge of the party and its structures. Apparently the regions of Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and Catalonia would go fr Cospedal. Santamaría has a base of support in regions like Andalusia, Castilla y León or the Basque Country (and maybe Valencia).

Galicia is a big question because premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó (previously the big favourite) is not endorsing anyone in the first round, in which party members registered to vote will choose between the six candidates and elect the delegates for the party convention. In case that no candidate gets a majority in the first round, the two top candidates will pass to the second round in which only delegates are eligible to vote. Then Feijoó will say which candidate supports and will ask Galician delegates to vote as a block. I've read that he would never support Santamaría.

On the other hand, Pablo Casado must be taken into account. Casado is a young conservative that appeals to generational replacement and party0s unity, "as well as Spanish nationalism or "family values". He has the support of much of the PP's "New Generations" (youth branch) and the supporters of José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre. In case that Casado qualifies as one of the two top candidates for the second round, his victory is very likely. Delegates supporting Sntamaría or Cospedal would vote for him and against the other woman.

Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

EDIT: Journalist Eruardo Inda (scum, sensationalist hack) says that according to some internal polling Pablo Casado is ahead, followers by Cospedal and Santamaria. Maybe Inda is intoxicating but the man has good contacts in the PP and in the underworld. Aside from that, my insight (maybe incorrect or baseless) is that Casado could win this.

Current opinion polling is placing PSOE in first place, with the exception of the Sociométrica poll released by El Español (editor Pedro J Ramírez likes Rivera)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on June 28, 2018, 07:30:54 AM
Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 28, 2018, 09:23:15 AM
Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on June 28, 2018, 09:42:12 AM
Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Yikes!! :o That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on June 28, 2018, 10:03:27 AM
Casado and others have stated concern at the low numbers of members registered to vote. PP has nominally more than 800k members, but this figure is unreal. Membership census hasn't been updated in a long time; possibly there are dead people and members who left in the census roll. Only 66k (less tan 8%) have registered and are eligible to vote. Turnout will be lower than that figure. It's a big failure for the PP.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 28, 2018, 10:06:53 AM
Sounds like the PP election is going to effectively be like a US style Caucus or Labour's leadership election, where only the most committed and partisan are voting members. Never a good recipe for picking a nationally electable candidate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tintrlvr on June 28, 2018, 10:21:16 AM
Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

In other words, they're CDC before it became a pro-independence party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2018, 05:28:24 PM
Yikes!! :o That's real, real bad. It becomes worse if you compare with the PP's sister party in Portugal, the PSD. In this year leadership elections, 70,000 PSD members, out of 120,000 active members, were registered to vote, although only 43,000 voted.

Oh my, that's hideous. I compared this to the 2017 NDP leadership election for a perspective, and Canada's third largest party had nearly the exact same number of VOTERS (and that's with 52% turnout, the NDP has over 124k members) as Spain's largest party.

Sometimes comparisons are odious (I mean the ccomparisons you make are terrible for the PP). The 870k membership figure is unreal. Some PP officials claim that figure includes activists and mere supporters, but possibly it also includes dead people or people who joined one day and dissapeared. The main reason for not updting the membership census is that regions send delegaes to the party convention according to the size of their membership (75%) and election results (25%).

Even with a more realistic census, this 66k figure is really poor. More comparisons:

2018 PP leadership contest: 66384 enrolled to vote out of 869535 members (7.6%)

2017 PSOE leadership contest:  149051 out of 187715 turned out to vote (79.8%)

2017 Podemos convention (Vistalegre II): 155275 members voted online (34.5%)

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2018, 06:30:29 PM
Is the PNV/EAJ pro-Basque independence or more of a "Basque interests" party?

Simultaneously both and neither at the same time. A big and somewhat hilarious example is that the same day they signed the budget deal with Rajoy's government in Madrid, they also signed a declaration in favour of the right to decide with Bildu back in the Basque Country.

It really depends. I think their position on independence is something like "would be nice but now is not the time". They are clearly in favour of the right to decide (ie a referendum) though I don't think they would actively push for independence unless they felt threatened or something.

It also depens on who is in charge of PNV. Right now Urkullu is a moderate, but former leader Ibarretxe was a lot more pro-independence, actively pushing for the Basque Country to become a "free associated state". That was defeated in the Spanish Congress by a landslide margin: 29-313, with only Basque/Catalan/Galician nationalists voting in favour; IU splitting between abstaining and no; and everyone else voting no.

In fact up until the Catalan conflict, the Ibarretxe plan was the strongest pro-independence challenge in Spain, though it went nowhere near as far (Ibarretxe never dared to disobey court orders like Mas and Puigdemont for example)

The leader of PNV is not lehendakari (premier) Íñigo Urkullu, it's the chairman of the Euzkadi Buru Batzar (EBB) Andoni Ortúzar. EBB is the National Executive Committee and it has branches in every territory of the Greater Basque Country, also known as Euskal Herria. Territories are the three Basque provinces (Álava/Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa), Navarre (Nafarroa) and the French Basque Country (Iparralde). Urkullu himself was chairman of the PNV between 2008 and 2012, replacing Josu Jon Imaz. He left party leadership in order to run for lehendakari.

One of the main singularities of the PNV is that there's a strict separation of powers between the party organization and the Basque government, which PNV holds since 1980 (except for the 2009-2012 period). The EBB makes strategic decisions. The lehendakari and the members of the government implement the party's policies and are in charge of management.

Even though the party is very calm nowadays, there have been tensions between the lehendakari and the EBB chairman in the past. Differences between PNV chairman Xavier Arzalluz and lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea led to a split and the establishment of Eusko Alkartasuna (EA), a rival nationalist party currently integrated in EH Bildu. The relationship between chairman Josu Jon Imaz (a moderate) and lehemdakari José Ibarretxe (pro-sovereignty) was uneasy.

The short answer is that PNV is clearly a Basque Interests party, but it has two souls.

There is a more nationalistic faction (pro-sovereignty or pro-independence) that coexists with a more pragmatic faction that advocates a gradual approach and focuses on Basque interests: strengthening self-government and protecting Basque fiscal regime.

PNV politicians are very skilled in negotiations, as well they show a rare ability to swim between the two currents (the pragmatic and the nationalist).



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 29, 2018, 01:00:04 PM
About the PP leadership election, I'd say taht only 66k is an utter failure on PP's part. Remember PP claimed an 850k membership.

But even if we forget about the 850k figure, 66k is extremely small. I wouldn't consider Podemos' leadership election as comparable since joining Podemos is free and over the internet while for any of the other parties you have to pay.

But remember, PP's membership fee is only 20€ a year. Compare that to PSOE's 60€ a year or Cs' 120 € a year. So you'd expect PP's membership to be certainly larger than PSOE and especially Cs. And yet it's only 1/3 of PSOE's membership and only around 3 times that of Cs.

In fact, to get an idea, around 23k people are elected PP politicians (local councillors, MPs, etc). Which means that about 1 in 3 voters will be actual politicians.

I don't think that means a more extreme politician though. Remember that the PSOE primaries had extremely high turnout and they still elected the more "extreme" candidate (Sánchez) not the establishment one (Díaz).

In fact since 1/3 will be elected politicians, I guess that will give a small boost to establishment candidates (Santamaría, probably Cospedal) and might make things harder for the ones relying in the party base (Casado).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on June 29, 2018, 01:59:07 PM
What for would one have party membership if he is not some sort of elected politician, even such as some small town mayor or county leader?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on June 29, 2018, 02:46:41 PM
What for would one have party membership if he is not some sort of elected politician, even such as some small town mayor or county leader?

Well, plenty of reasons. You could be someone who isn't an elected politician but wants to become one in the future. Or you could simply be a party hack and want to support your party by paying the membership dues and taking part in its internal politics.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 04, 2018, 09:07:22 AM
While polling for leadership elections is almost always extremely inaccurate, and Okdiario is a worthless pamphlet, they are the only ones who have even tried to poll the PP leadership election so here's their final poll (election is due for tomorrow). Worth noting that this a poll of PP councillors and local elected officials which are likely to votee (then again of the 1200 calls only 243 replied).

()

Which means Cospedal in the lead and Casado and Santamaría battling for 2nd, though it's between the margin of error for all 3. Margallo well behind.

The only other poll (this time of PP voters, so including a lot of people who won't vote in the leadership election):

Santamaría: 45,2%
Casado: 22.2%
Cospedal: 11.9%
Margallo: 6.4%
José R. Gª Hernández: 1.2%
Elio Cabanes: 0.1%

I guess one of the 3 frontrunners will be eliminated by the PP base, with the other 2 battling in the PP congress.

My own prediction is that Casado will be well ahead, with Santamaría and Cospedal battling for 2nd with Santamaría narrowly getting in 2nd place. In the PP congress all bets are off, though the larger the Casado victory, the easier it will be for him to be elected.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 04, 2018, 11:57:39 AM
I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 04, 2018, 01:13:30 PM
The endorsement of regional and provincial leadersis (more or less) evenly distributed between Santamaría and Cospedal, while Casado relies in the grassroots. Summary:

María Dolores de Cospedal has been the secretary general of the party and is the only candidate who is a regional leader (Castilla-La Mancha). She is endorsed by the regional leaders of Extremadura and Asturias, as well by the Madrid premier Ángel Garrido. Six provincial leaders endorse her publicly (4 from her region plus Almería and Cáceres). According to partisan sources, she has good chances in Zaragoza and Ceuta, while Jaén and Córdoba would be contested between her and Santamaría.

Galicia leader Alberto Núñez Feijoó has remained silent, but he could tip the balance in favour of Cospedal for the second round. Especially if one of the two candidates is Santamaría. 

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has been endorsed by the regional leader of Andalusia. The support of former ministers Alfonso Alonso and Ïñigo de la Serna could give her a base of support in the Basque Country and Cantabria. Also, she is endorsed by 10 provincial leaders (Álava, Alicante, Cádiz, Castellón, Girona, Huelva, Gipuzkoa, Málaga, Sevilla and Valencia). Partisan sources told to El País that she is the likely winner in most of Castilla y León provinces. According to the same sources, she could win Murcia, the Canaries and Melilla.

Pablo Casado has the endorsement of three provincial leaders in Catalonia (Barcelona, Tarragona and Lleida). The faction loyal to Esperanxa Aguirre in Madrid backs him, as well as nostalgics for Aznar*, so Casado has chances of winning Madrid. The Balearic Islands would be in dispute between him and Santamaría. Given his little support in the territorial organizations, his chances rely in obtaining a big support among grassroots and in the 4,800 members of the PP Youth registered to vote.

*Aznar claims that PP must undertake a refounding. He didn't endorse anyone in public, but it's clear that Casado is his preferred candidate. Former PM stated that he didn't register to vote.

I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 05, 2018, 01:13:15 PM
I read that Casado is involved in a weird controversy around his master degree, that he didn't show up to classes and that it was mandatory. It seems he was tutored by the same teacher, if i'm correct, that helped Cifuentes to get her master degree.

Why would the PP members vote for someone who can be a liability in the near future? It doesn't make sense. At least Cospedal and Santamaría don't have this kind, or other legal, problems, i assume, of course.

Indeed, the issue f the master degree can be a burden. If PP voters were intelligent , they'd vote massively for Santamaría. She's the more capable and competitive, despite her mistakes and failures as Deputy PM. I think Cospedal would be eaten by Rivera (the Cs leader) and Casado isn't convincing (the master, his proximity to Aznar and Aguirre...)

However, who said that party grassroots are clever?

When a party is a "party of power", grassroots have to be cleaver enough to elect the most electable candidate, because the party isn't speaking just to itself, it is also speaking to the country and potential swing voters.

Now, it seems that turnout could be above 70%. Until 6:00, 65.8% of PP members cast a ballot. I've read on Electomania that Cospedal may be leading, but this could also be a way to shore up the Santamaría potential voters.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 05, 2018, 02:21:25 PM
Booths closed in mainland Spain. Maybe we'll have  some provisional results in acouple of hours.

Apparently Casado id winning in Madrid by a landslide. Santamaría would be winning in Andalusia, followed by Casado. At least, that's what some people is saying in La Sexta.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 05, 2018, 02:45:17 PM
According to ABC, with 44% of the vote in:

Casado: 11176
Santamaria: 8822
Cospedal: 7290

They also showed the results for the other 3, but without telling who is who. In any case, their results are 348, 355 and 72 votes. Terrible result for Margallo, especially if Joserra (who is completely unknown actually beats him or is anywhere close)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 05, 2018, 03:15:02 PM
42,000 votes counted:

15,971 39.9% Casado
13,604 34.0% Santamaría
10,460 26.4% Cospedal
     552   1.4% Margallo

It seems that Andalucia and Castilla La Mancha are still out. This could be good news for Santamaría and Cospedal.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 05, 2018, 04:16:24 PM
Santamaria finally wins

Santamaria: 21500
Casado: 19900
Cospedal: 15000


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 05, 2018, 04:53:03 PM
Total final results:

21,513 37.0% Santamaría
19,967 34.4% Casado
15,090 26.0% Cospedal
     680   1.2% Margallo
     668   1.2% Hernandéz
     185   0.3% Cabanes
     202   0.4% Blank/Invalid ballots            

58,305 87.4% Turnout

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 06, 2018, 05:08:03 AM
Andalusia hitted the balance in favour of Santamaría. Results by region:

()

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 06, 2018, 07:35:23 AM
I am not sure if I should ask this question because somehow I have feeling that I have already asked that question but:


How UPyD is currently doing? Are they relevant anywhere?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on July 06, 2018, 02:32:56 PM
According to Politico’s article, Casado seems to be the more “liberal” one. Is this true?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 06, 2018, 03:51:43 PM
I am not sure if I should ask this question because somehow I have feeling that I have already asked that question but:


How UPyD is currently doing? Are they relevant anywhere?

I don't think anyone has asked about UPyD reciently so I guess it's a good question.

Apparently after the 2015 election (when they lost all seats and got 0.8% of the vote) their leader Andrés Herzog resigned and was replaced by MP in the Basque Country's regional assembly Gorka Maneiro. They also debated whether the party should close down for good but apparently the dissolution proposal was rejected.

In any case, Maneiro performed even worse than Herzog, getting only 0.21% of the vote; coming even behind "Zero Cuts: The greens", a very fringe party, and slightly ahead of Vox.

Maneiro was replaced now by Cristiano Brown, city councillor in the town of Las Rozas (Madrid). Interestingly, Brown is actually an inmigrant from Brasil who came to Spain when he was 9 years old.

So yes, UPyD still exists. However, I'd say their future will be very similar to that of CDS back in the 90s. The party loses all its seats after the party founder (Adolfo Suarez /Rosa Diez) resigns after an abysmal local election (1991/2015); however the party rejects dissolution and stays in zombie form for 15 years.

I seriously doubt UPyD will ever be relevant again, except maybe at the local level. They have a very, very slim chance of holding 1 MEP if Maite Pagazaurtundua (the only of the 4 MEPs who still belongs to UPyD and isn't an independent) somehow manages to hold her seat but I don't think that's likely. If UPyD somehow managed to hold that 1 MEP then maybe the party could be revived but it's a small chance.

According to Politico’s article, Casado seems to be the more “liberal” one. Is this true?

Well, in the European sense yes. Ie he wants tax cuts and the like. He apparently wants to cut income tax (having a top bracket below 40%) and corporate tax. Liberal in this sense basically means economic liberal, wanting low taxes, cuts and privatization.

While the PP primaries have been extremely light on policy, I guess the main divide is that Santamaría is the more "technocratic" and moderate candidate and closer to Rajoy, while Casado is the more "ideological" candidate, much closer to the ideas of Aznar.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 06, 2018, 04:49:59 PM
Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.
You're right that whoever made this election system up should get an Oscar for "Most stupid picture", but that doesn't explain the stupidity of Calado and Cospedal, in view. These people were just furious, a few weeks ago, that the second party in Parliament was now government and now they want to join forces to overthrow the most voted candidate in their party's primaries. See the contradiction here? Plus, Calado is now on the spotlight. I wouldn't be surprised that in the next few days, some new development about his master degree is published.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 07, 2018, 06:54:04 AM
It seems that some Cospedal supporters are against a Casado/Cospedal alliance to overthrow Santamaría: Supporters of Cospedal ask that Casado be integrated into a unique candidacy. (http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/07/07/5b3fbd6222601da77f8b45a1.html)

Also, Casado's degree controversy is already back: "Pablo, you have to fix the master." (https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/07/06/actualidad/1530904473_236652.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 07, 2018, 11:36:01 AM
Map of elected delegates, or "compromisarios", for the PP congress:

()

Santamaría has 1,196 compromisarios (44%)
Cospedal has 850 (31%)
Calado has 672 (25%)

Don't know why Cospedal has more compromisarios than Calado, because she polled third in the primaries, but according to these numbers, Santamaría only needs 164 more to be elected leader.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 07, 2018, 02:54:48 PM
The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 07, 2018, 02:59:04 PM
By the way, the incompetent who designed the voting system in two rounds is Fernando Martínez Maillo

https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Martínez_Maíllo


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on July 08, 2018, 07:24:12 AM
The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?


I found these numbers here: http://electomania.es/comppromisarios/

It's apparently an El Mundo analysis/calculation of the primary election results. It seems that, according to this calculation, that it is "Winner Takes All" by provinces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 10, 2018, 04:01:38 AM
Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and Catalan remier Quim Torra met yesrterday at La Moncloa, rhe seat of Spanish government in Madrid. The meeting was aimed to ease long running tensions between central and regional administrations, as well as re-open previously suspended billateral discussions. The most visible result of the meeting is that they agreed to keep talking. "Normalization" of the institutional relationship and "thaw" are the key words. Predictably the two disagreed on the issue of Catalan self-determination, which Torra demands and Sánchez maintains that it'd not allowed under the Spanish constitution. However Deputy PM Carmen Calvo said at a press conference after the meeting that it's possible to move forward on other items: “Torra makes statements on a right to self-determination that does not exist as a right in any European constitution. We need to talk about Catalonia’s autonomy and about matters that are stuck in the Constitutional Court. We are ready to lift the veto on a few laws on energy, healthcare and poverty that are part of the policies of the new government of Spain.”

Sánchez: “a political crisis requires a political solution. This meeting is a constructive starting point to normalize relations.”

Torra: “the meeting has been long, honest and work-based, and we have given our visions for Catalonia. There’s been a mutual acknowledgement of what we each represent. Sánchez has admitted that this is a political problem that requires political solutions. And we’ve talked about everything.”

This is the first face-to-face conversation between a Spanish PM and a Catalan premier since 2012, when Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas met. In that meeting Mas demanded Rajoy a reform in the financing system of Catalonia to make it as similar as possible to the Basque fiscal reime. Spanish PM refused arguing that it wasn't the right time to discuss an improvement of regional financing, because Spain was in the midst of a terrible economic crisis and on the verge of a bailout. Since then, Mas turned to be openly pro-independence and a new phase began.  That was the starting point of the procès, the Catalan drive to independence.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-and-catalan-leader-agree-to-re-open-bilateral-talks/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 10, 2018, 02:38:07 PM
Andalusia premier Susana Díaz could move next year's election forward this Autumn.

There are two reasons:

1) The new government led by Pedro Sánchez is honeymooning with public opinion, after the success of the no-confidence motion and the beginning of a new political cycle. Susana Díaz would want to take advantage of the popularity of her main rival in the PSOE while there's a tail wind that favours her interests.

2) The court ruling of the ERE case -a corruption scandal that affects former officials of the regional government- is expected to March 2019, the same month regional elections are scheduled. Andalusian socialists fear a shattering ruling that portrays decades of excesses and self-indulgency. The PSOE has been governing without interruptions since 1980.

Opposition parties are already preparing for a snap election. By the moment no rival to challenge Susana Díaz has been officially appointed, although it's likely the 2014 election candidates repeat. PP leader in Andalusia José Manuel Moreno Bonilla was recently reelected. However, he has to be confirmed candidate by the new PP leadership after the PP national convention on July 20 and 21. Moreno Bonilla is a staunch supporter of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and the vote of Andalusians was key for the momentary advantage of the former Deputy PM in the first round of the leadership contest. 

Cs decided to move forward its process to select candidates. Juan Marín, candidate in the 2014 election, is the favourite. According to ABC Sevilla the CS Executive Committee agreed that two independents top the list in Huelva and Jaén provinces.

Podemos, IU, Equo and smaller organizations are in the process of forming a joint list provisionally called Ahora Andalucía (Now Andalusia). The formation will be complex, as usual in these forces of the alternative left. Every party and organization will hold primaries and then they'll have to find a way to arrange the common list. Likely the candidate will be the Podemos leader in Andalusia Teresa Rodríguez. who belongs to the anti-capitalist faction.

A poll released a week ago places PSOE ahead followed by Cs, PP and Podemos-IU

SW Demoscopia

PSOE 38.1% (+2.7%) 47 (=) seats
Cs 21.5% (+12.3%) 23 (+14) seats
PP 19.8% (-7%) 23 (-10) seats
Podemos+IU 14.8% (-6.9%) 16 (-4) seats

https://www.electograph.com/2018/07/andalucia-swdemoscopia-junio18.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 12, 2018, 05:31:15 AM
()

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and Pablo Casado sat together at a "summer dinner party" organized by the PP parliamentary group on Tuesday night. Later the party organization provided pictures of them smiling hugely. However, the truce ended after the dinner. In the following day Casado warned against"gender ideology" and threw out the following question: "is Santamaría so worthless that people votes her only for being a woman?". Santamaría replied: "dividing between ladies in an attempt to find a space is something that I don't like". She meant that Casado tries to take advantage of her rivalry with Cospedal. The former Deputy PM clains that a majority of the PP membership wants a woman leading, because she and Cospedal got 63% of the vote together. Casado rated Santamaría's statements as an "offence gainst women", adding that PP is "committed to talent, regardless of gender". Casado says he can't believe that someone accuses him of male chauvinism, even though he has stated that feminism is a "collectivist movement" that "must be combated by the centre-right" because "liberals" are "committed to individuals and not collectives".

In related news, Pablo Casado and premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó attended together a meeting of party delegates in Galicia. Casado didn't get the explicit endorsement of Feijoó, but receved some "gestures of affection" in exchange. The Galician premier wants to keep a neutral appearance. It won't be surprising that a vast majority of delegates from Galicia votes for Casado, except the delegates from the Ourense province which boss is Feijoo's only rival in the region.

Celeste-Tell poll for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.1% 106-109 seats
PP 24.2%  97-99 seats
Cs 20.6% 62-64 seats
UP 17.7% 51-56 seats
Others 10.4% 26-27 seats


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 13, 2018, 07:23:58 AM
The german regional court has rejected sending Puigdemont under rebellion, they only allow sending him under public fund misuse charges. The Spanish courts have rejected extradition under those conditions. Llarena's only exit would be to appeal to European courts. In any case, it seems Puigdemont is safe and won't go to jail.

Also, 2 more polls. One of them actually includes results both with Casado and Soraya as PP leaders, confirming what we already knew (Casado makes Vox go lower)

Top position

()

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Simple Lógica

PSOE: 27,2%
Cs: 26,0%
PP: 18.7%
UP: 17,3%
Others: 10,8%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 13, 2018, 08:16:09 AM
The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on July 13, 2018, 09:21:52 AM
In the Top Position polls, did they release figures for PDeCAT, PNV, and EH Bildu?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 13, 2018, 10:29:55 AM
The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.


Yes, the rebellion charges make no sense whatsoever. There was 100% no violence (or at least no more violence than say, in your usual general strike). The sedition charges would make more sense to me (and even then I'm unsure if those would be accurate but certainly more than rebellion).

In fact, I'd say there's a non negligible (but very small) chance of Junqueras and the rest actually being declared innocent, at least of the rebellion charges (probably not of public fund misuse though).

Also, I wonder if they will eventually be pardoned (whether by Sánchez or another future PM). Barrionuevo (GAL) was pardoned by Aznar and Armada (23F coup) was pardoned by González so following the "controversial pardons" precedent, in theory the next PP/Cs prime minister should pardon the Catalan government. Of course that will never happen, but still a pardon wouldn't be the most controversial thing in the world.

As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 13, 2018, 10:36:42 AM
In the Top Position polls, did they release figures for PDeCAT, PNV, and EH Bildu?

Nope. In fact one of the weirdest things about that poll is the 1% drop in the "others" group between Soraya and Casado. I see absolutely no reason for nationalist voters to switch depending on the PP leader.

Not to mention that 9.2% or even 8.2% is slightly too high if ERC isn't there. In 2016 the "others" got roughly 7% of the vote. Maybe they are counting blank ballots there as well? Alternatively, maybe there's a PACMA surge as well?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 13, 2018, 11:27:59 AM



As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.


Santiago Abascal lacks merits to be considered a "high profile" politician. In my opinion he is uncharismatic besides an idiot. Precedents tell us that it's possible for an idiot to become POTUS if your name is Donald Trump and you have some charisma. Possibly there are more examples of idiots and clowns with charisma in the European far-right. That's not the case of Abascal. The only well-known figure in this trio is Ortega Lara because of his terrible experience, but he lacks everything else.

The Vox candidate in the last European elections Alejo Vidal-Quadras was relatively high-profile (radical but not idiot). He was on the verge of winning a seat. Vidal-Quadras was previously a MEP elected in the PP list.

Maybe the result of that EP election indicates what is the most that Vox could win: a seat in Madrid if the party reachs the 3% threshold there. I never thought Simple Lógica is a reliable pollster, on the other hand. This "Top Position" poll looks strange and the pollster is new to me.
 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 14, 2018, 09:03:35 AM
Casado's rightward shift opens ideological battle in the PP that splits the party in two. He and his supporters want a "debate of ideas" and a "refoundation"" of the PP, something that Santamaría and her supporters reject arguing that it's not time to discuss a new platform but to elect a new leader. A debate between Santamaría and Casado was discarded due to "lack of consensus".

The Casado campaign has already began the ideological battle with proposals to the right of Rajoy, such as the ban of separatist parties, or going back to the 1985 abortion law* claiming that "abortion is not a right" and the current law passed in 2010 is too permissive and gives "free drink". Leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre have been demanding an "ideological rearm" for years, because they say that a party with no clear ideology is like a "headless chicken". Aguirre complained that, while the PP was in government, she and others warning against "ideological indefinition" were preaching in the desert. But she's no longer crying in the wilderness bacause Pablo Casado has embraced the cause. "I want to launch a national project with a discourse that is recognizable", said the candidate at the beginning of the campaign. On the primary election day Aguirre stated that she voted for Casado "with great illusion".

The campaigns of Casado and Sanatamaría have opposite styles. Casado tries to campaign in a"presidential" style with proposals for legislative changes, while the campaign of Santamaría is more focused on leadership. Supporters of Casado criticize the lack of legislative proposals in the Sanatamaría campaign, as well as her management of the conflict in Catalonia and her failed "Operation Dialogue" with the separatists. Supporters of Sanatamaría rate the critics on Catalonia made by the opposite camp as "opportunistic".

On economic policies Casado stands for "unashamed liberalism". Some of his proposals are the renegotiation of subsidies and their replacement by fiscal incentives, or a "standard tax system" with low rates and no deductions.

A sign of this rightward shift and "ideological rearm" is that María San Gil came out of retirement and attended an event of the Casado campaign, stating that with him she is recuperating enthusiasm. San Gil was the leader of PP in the Basque Country and was notorious by her hardline stance against ETA and nationalists. Casado wants to recruit José Antonio Ortega Lara, the prison officer who was kidnapped by ETA that left PP for the Vox party.

*Abortion in Spain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Spain#Organic_Law_9/1985

Quote
In the Organic Law 9/1985, adopted on 5 July 1985, induced abortion was legalized in three cases: serious risk to the physical or mental health of the pregnant woman , rape and malformations or defects, physical or mental, in the fetus.



  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: windjammer on July 14, 2018, 10:40:35 AM
If Santamaria wins I expect her in the future to become prime minister. She seems to have killer instincts like Merkel


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 15, 2018, 02:31:22 AM
New set of polls

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PSOE 26.3%  Cs 24.2% PP 22.3% UP 16.1% ERC 3.2% PDeCAT 1.2% PNV 1.1% Others 5.6%

Invymark/ La Sexta

PSOE 26.5% PP 23.4% Cs 21.9% UP 18.1% Others 10.1%

JM&A / Público*

PSOE 26.4% Cs 23.6% PP 19.7% UP 17.5% Others 12.8%

*Estimation by Jaume Miquel & associates


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 15, 2018, 03:18:37 AM
An anonymous video spread via social networks and whatsapp with attacks to Santamaría has provoked great anger in the candidacy of the former Deputy PM. The video features Santamaría and some of her supporters (Javier Arenas, Cristóbal Montoro, Celia Villalobos), long-term politiicians deemed unsuited for the party's renewal.  The team of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has submitted a formal complaint asking the PP for an investigation, as well as demanding an explanation from Casado's candidacy. "The letter sent by Sanatamaría's team deems the video as an "intolerable attack", as well as an "excercise of pollution and personal questioning".

Anonymous video targeted against Santamaría. Title: "Tell me how are you going to renew us"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkvFSmgHfro

In other news, defense lawyers for jailed Catalan separatist leaders will request their release

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/13/inenglish/1531490884_163779.html

Quote
This move will follow a recent decision by a German court to extradite former Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont to Spain on the charge of misuse of public funds that Spanish authorities have filed against him, but not for the crime of rebellion. This means that he can only be tried on the former charge once he is back in Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 18, 2018, 06:24:29 AM
Yesterday morning Pedro Sánchez explained his plans for government, 45 days after the no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy. The new PSOE government is already experiencing the hardships of its parliamentary weakness, losing a vote to renew the board of the RTVE broadcasting group. Despite the PSOE negotiated an agreement with Unidos Podemos and the PNV, as well as the support of ERC and PDeCAT, the vote failed because two deputies were absent and other two made a mistake. Also, Pedro Sánchez is facing criticism from various sides. PP and Cs accuse him with harsh rhetoric of being indebted with Catalan and Basque nationalists, while the parties supporting the fragile parliamentary majority say that he is already going back on promises. like publishing the names od f tax evaders*

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/17/inenglish/1531813054_774710.html


Quote
In his speech, Sánchez talked about democratic renewal, social policies and Spain’s role in the world. He also announced a ban on future tax amnesties and a 15% corporate tax for large companies. The PM additionally pledged to soon transfer the remains of former dictator Francisco Franco from his current burial site at the Valley of the Fallen, outside Madrid.

“I want to announce to you that the political decision of this government is taken,” he told Congress. “We are going to exhume the remains of the dictator Franco from the Valley of the Fallen, and this – barring last-minute changes to the means that will make this possible – will take place in a very brief period of time. The wounds have been open for many years, too many, and the time has come to close them. Our democracy will have symbols that unite citizens.”

The Spanish PM addressed the situation in Catalonia, which is a priority for his administration. In a reply to ERC spokesman Joan Tardá, Sánchez said that "Catalans will have to vote". However, both disagreed on the matter to vote. Catalan separatists want a vote on independence, but Sánchez argues that's not in the Constitution and offers a reform as well as "frank and direct dialogue".

Sánchez also talked about housing, jobs and pensions in his speech, underscoring the importance of the welfare state.

*Pedro Sánchez promised that while in opposition, but now the government argues legal impediments that prevent revealing the names of tax evaders. On the other hand, the Unidos Podemos parliamentary group is requesting a commision of inquiry after some audio recordings of the "special friend" (lover) of emeritus king Juan Carlos surfaced. According to Corinna, Juan Carlos fails to distinguish the legal from the illegal. The father of the incumbent head of state is immune to legal punshment.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/16/inenglish/1531729422_476862.html

Quote
The head of Spain’s intelligence services will speak at a closed-door hearing in Congress to explain his version of events regarding secret recordings in which a Monaco-based businesswoman allegedly claims that former Spanish King Juan Carlos used her as a front to conceal his wealth.

National Intelligence Center (CNI) chief General Félix Sanz Roldán will be asked about statements allegedly made by Corinna zu Sayn-Wittgenstein, who has been described as the former king’s “close friend,” and who said that the Spanish intelligence services were putting pressure on her.




There were new developments in the PP leadership contest. On Monday morning, María Dolores de Cospedal endorsed officially the candidate Pablo Casado. Later it was revealed that former PM Mariano Rajoy pushed unsuccessfully for an arrangement between the two candidates, in order that both merge in a single list led by Santamaría. With that move, Rajoy broke his promise to remain neutral.

In other news, Matteo Salvini declared war on Spanish NGO rescue ship

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/18/inenglish/1531901276_303984.html

Quote
This week, Salvini has lashed out against the Spanish non-profit group Proactiva Open Arms, which recently brought a group of migrants to the port of Barcelona after Italy refused them entry. Via his Twitter account, the federal secretary of the League party asserted that Proactiva “will only see Italian ports in postcards.”


A less known fact is that Spain is outnumbering Italy in immigrant arrivals by sea. This year 18,016 people reached the Spanish coast, while 17,827 reached Italy. These changes in the migrant flows are totally unrelated with the xenophobic demagoguery of the Italian Deputy PM, who makes gains by fostering hatred and paranoid obsession on immigration.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/07/17/actualidad/1531855916_995446.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 18, 2018, 08:06:39 AM
New Catalan poll released by El Periódico on Sunday. On the pro-independence side ERC and CUP make gains while Puigdrmont's JxCAT loses ground: the pro-independence majority remains unchanged. On the non-nationalist side PSC advances while Cs makes slight loses, while CatComú-Podem and PP make very slight gains or remain stable. ERC would replace Cs as the first party, both in seats and popular vote.

()

[im()




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on July 19, 2018, 07:18:35 AM
Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 19, 2018, 08:10:17 AM
Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 19, 2018, 11:07:01 AM
It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 19, 2018, 11:14:45 AM
Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.

To be precise, the Supreme Court judge rejected the extradition of Puigdemont, because it's solely on charges of misuse of funds and not on charges of rebellion. He has withdrawn the European arrest warrant against Puigdemont and other separatist politicians who fled Spain. The ruling of the Schleswig-Holstein court is a rebuttal to the theory of judge Llarena, supporting there was "implicit violence" in the October 1 journey. It casts a shadow over the case of the politicians jailed in Spain on the same charges. According to Spanish law the charge of rebellion implies an attempt to overthrow the government by violent means. I find the interpretation of the Spansih judge rigorous and unfounded and, what is worse, it gives a revenge feeling. It's obvious that the Catalan separatist leaders put themselves outside the law. The judiciary should act, keeping a sense of proportion. Maybe the problem is that the environment in Madrid is too strained, with some people claiming that past events in Catalonia were an attempted coup against Spanish democracy. In my opinion the stubbornness of judge Llarena is quite incomprehensible, as well counterproductive.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/19/inenglish/1532005743_590084.html

Quote
In a decision made public today, Llarena says that he believes the German court has undermined his powers as an investigating judge, but ruled out the possibility of taking the case to the European Court of Justice to determine whether German judges overstepped their powers.
Supreme Court Judge Pablo Llarena in April.
Supreme Court Judge Pablo Llarena in April. Europa Press

Llarena underscored the “lack of commitment” of the German court based on events that “could have “fractured the constitutional order of Spain.” He went on to say that the decision of the German judges had predicted the outcome of a court case over which they have no powers, ignoring the precepts of the European arrest warrant, the jurisprudence of the EU Court of Justice, and the European arrest warrant guidelines produced by the European Commission.

Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)

According to the poll, the balance between pro-independence and 'constitutionalist' parties remains unchanged. There are some transfers within the two blocks, slight increase for ERC and PSC at the expense of JxcAT and Cs respectively. However, there are virtually no vote transfers between blocks. It's worth noting that most of the Cs gains in previous regional elections is at the expense of PSC, especially in Metropolitan Barcelona. Cs also made gains from PP, but the proportion of former PSC voters is higher. In the rest of Spain, Cs is growing mainly at the expense of PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 19, 2018, 11:18:31 AM
It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

I'm in the same opinion. There is no solution in the short term.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 19, 2018, 11:20:27 AM
It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 19, 2018, 01:57:12 PM
It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

It's true. Cs+JxCAT+PP add 74 out of 135 seats. The procés has been lethal for the left, in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain. I put all my hopes in the thawing process promoted by Pedro Sánchez. Everything is fragile and provisional right now, but we could see light at the end of the tunnel. As Le Monde correspondent puts it: the problem with this government is that it has ideas, but is lacking a majority to make them real.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 19, 2018, 02:15:48 PM
It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

I meant in the poll that Velasco just posted, where (by my count) ERC-PSC-CeC-CUP have a majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 21, 2018, 07:03:11 AM
The 19th PP party congress has ended, with the slogan "The future of Spain". And in it, Pablo Casado has won, beating Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pablo-casado-gana-primarias-y-convierte-nuevo-presidente-pp-201807211353_noticia.html

()

The final results have been:

Casado 1701 (57%)
Soraya 1250 (42%)
Blank 18
Spoilt 4


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on July 21, 2018, 08:04:48 AM
Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on July 21, 2018, 08:15:28 AM
Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

If the one poll from before testing both candidates in the position of PP leader is accurate (even though there were many flaws as previously pointed out), then Casado will continue to push Cs down; I assume this is due to his very liberal economic stances and anti-Catalan-independence sentiment (apparently said today he wants Tabarnia to be a real thing). He probably won’t gain any large amount of PSOE voters (and could lose more moderate PP voters to them), but he is reducing Vox’s poll numbers, which the poll showed would have risen to its highest levels ever with Soraya Saénz de Santamaría.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary :P ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 21, 2018, 08:26:37 AM
Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

If the one poll from before testing both candidates in the position of PP leader is accurate (even though there were many flaws as previously pointed out), then Casado will continue to push Cs down; I assume this is due to his very liberal economic stances and anti-Catalan-independence sentiment (apparently said today he wants Tabarnia to be a real thing). He probably won’t gain any large amount of PSOE voters (and could lose more moderate PP voters to them), but he is reducing Vox’s poll numbers, which the poll showed would have risen to its highest levels ever with Soraya Saénz de Santamaría.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary :P ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.

Yup, that's all quite accurate.

Now that Casado is elected, Vox has lost almost all possibilities of getting seats (of course it depends on the 2019 European elections but still it's much more unlikely than a week ago).

Cs will probably go down, most of their new voters went there because of the Catalonia issue. Maybe they'll go back to the center and get moderate PP voters (plus maybe even a few from PSOE) while the hardliners go back to PP but that seems very unlikely to me.

PSOE might go up because of polarization. And UP is probably not affected at all, other than maybe if PSOE goes up UP goes down because "useful voting".

And the Sebastian Kurz comparisons are actually very accurate IMO! The only difference is that while Kurz has to deal with a party to his right (FPÖ), Casado will have to deal with one that is to his left (Cs)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 21, 2018, 09:27:25 AM
It's too early to say, but the election of Pablo Casado represents a clear turn to the right for a party that is already perceived as very right-wing. Casado is a social conservative and an "unashamed liberal" (i.e. "neoliberal") on economics. There will be a tight competition between PP and Cs to determine which is the toughest party with separatists.

Casado is standing now for a new electoral system with a  50 seat bonus, like in Greece. He claims that the bonus would allow the winning party to govern without needing the votes of Catalan and Basque nationalists. Previously he proposed the ban of separatist parties.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary :P ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.

Spain is not Austria, obviously. It's possible that there is a slight resemblance between Pablo Casado and Sebastian Kurz, as they share conservative stances and both are in the thirties (Casado is 37, a bit older than millennial Kurz). Unlike Austria and other countries in Europe, there is no obsession with immigration in Spain. The issue that provokes paranoia in public opinion is Catalonia. People in Spain see a strong resemblance between Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera. Casado is young, but no so fresh in my opinion. I mean, he's way too traditionalist for modern Spain and is the heir of Aznar. However, I'm not a right-wing voter and maybe conservatives in Spain think otherwise. The point is that a social conservative like him would be too much for a country that is highly secularized. Casado is tougher than Cs on abortion and euthanasia, which are not on the focus of the orange party. For sure with Casado in the PP leadership the Vox party has limited opportunities to grow.

In other news, this weekend is the convention of the PDeCAT. The fight here is between the supporters of Puigdemont and the 'pragmatic' faction of party coordinator Marta Pascal. The PDeCAT deputies in the Spanish Congress belong to the 'pragmatic' wing and were key in the no confidence vote against Rajoy. Puigdemont is launching a new movement (Crida Nacional per la República) in the fashion of Junts per Catalunya. Marta Pascal wants to reach an agreement with Puigdemont and stands for a "strong party" that joins the new 'republican' movement...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on July 21, 2018, 10:17:20 AM
Thank you both :)

Yeah, it definitely seems like Casado’s brand of conservatism is not Kurz’s, and you’re right that this doesn’t mean a rightward turn for the party whereas it could happen/is happening to the ÖVP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 21, 2018, 12:16:17 PM
this doesn’t mean a rightward turn for the party

The election of Pablo Casado is a rightward turn to the party.  PP delegates were faced to choose between two different options:

1) The continuity of the Rajoy's legacy represented by the former Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, possibly the most powerful woman in Spain since Queen Isabel II ("Isabella" for English Wikipedia). It has been said before: Santamaría is a pragmatist, a technocrat, a woman with no strong ideological stances who has been always focused on power and management. In what regards pragmatism she could be cautiously compared with Angela Merkel, although both women have very different backgrounds. Anyway she's not a centrist, rather she is a "stately" candidate or a "stateswoman" if you want (state attorney by profession). While campaigning Santamaría used to talk as she was still into government affairs.

2) The "conservative revolution" of Pablo Casado, a candidate to the right of old-fashioned provincian conservative Rajoy. Casado is a young man who wants to renew the party but, at the same time, he represents the comeback of old party leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre, or more precisely the triumph of their vision, I already posted about some of his stances and proposals.

Media narrative: the leadership contest was the Heiress of Rajoy Vs the Heir of Aznar.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: EPG on July 21, 2018, 01:16:16 PM
Is it possible that alliance with Cs will turn out to be Macron's first big, bad bet in European politics? Some say the same is true about the Franco-German pact, excluding smaller countries who are now grouping together (an argument favoured by Eurointelligence, who regularly read this site, I believe). Either way the augurs seem good for PSOE, which by my jaundiced view is good for everyone except some right-wing Spanish people.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 21, 2018, 05:34:14 PM
The election of Pablo Casado and the foreseeable competition between him and Albert Rivera on the grounds of right-wing Spanish nationalism might be good for the PSOE, because it places Pedro Sánchez in the centre. In case that the new leader of the Spanish Right launches a war on ideas, It could be good for Podemos that political battles are fought on ideological grounds. Maybe Casado will make moves in the following days indicative of the path he wants to choose, either the strong ideological stance in the border with Vox or a certain discursive modulation. Also, what is going to hapoen with Santamaria and her supporters. She wants to negotiate a place un party leadership, apparently.

Marta Pascal seems to be losing to Puigdemont in rhe PDeCAT convention. She resigned As coordinator for not having the confidence of the leader that is in Germany. Puigdemont could take full control.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 22, 2018, 07:53:31 AM
Something that I find interesting is that even though Casado is the supposed heir of Aznar as the more conservative candidate, back on the day Aznar himself was the moderate, bringing PP to the centre and making it competitive with González's PSOE after Fraga's AP was considered too conservative and too close to the Franco regime.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2018, 09:28:08 AM
David Bonvehí elected new chairman of the PDeCAT (formerly CDC). Deputy Miriam Nogueras is the new vice-chairman; presumably she will take control of the PDeCAT caucus in the Spanish Congress. As said before, former coordinator Marta Pascal resigned alleging that she's not trusted by Puigdemont anymore. This resignation and the low profile of the party leadership signal the defeat of the 'possibilist' faction that wanted to keep the party's identity. Puigdemont, who is the uncontested leader and the main electoral asset of the PDeCAT, takes control. Also, with this move the PDeCAT subordinates completely to Puigdemont and his new artifact, the Crida Nacional per la República ("National Call for the Republic"). As opposed to the 'possibilists' wanting to leave the unilateral path to independence and start a dialogue with the central government*, Puigdemont and his supporters are committed to maintain the tension. The Crida is an electoral vehicle that intends to be the equivalent of En Marche! (Macron obsession is everywhere) in the Catalan independence movement, with the aim of winning hegemony at the expense of ERC. The party led by Oriol Junqueras, who remains in jail, is more committed to possibilism since the failure of the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017. Previously ERC pushed Puigdemont to declare the "Catalan Republic", so this turn displeased the deposed premier and worsened the acrimonious rivalry between the two nationalist parties.


*Marta Pascal and the parliamentary caucus pushed in favour of the no confidence motion against Rajoy, while Puigdemont and his supporters ('vicarious' premier Quim Torra and Elsa Artadi, among others) were in favour of abstention.

So we have that, in the same weekend, radicals have won in the PP and the PDeCAT conventions. Pedro Sánchez could find himself trapped by a nationalist front formed by PP-Cs on the one hand and Puigdemont on the other hand.


Something that I find interesting is that even though Casado is the supposed heir of Aznar as the more conservative candidate, back on the day Aznar himself was the moderate, bringing PP to the centre and making it competitive with González's PSOE after Fraga's AP was considered too conservative and too close to the Franco regime.

It's obvious that the alleged centrism or moderatism of José María Aznar was fake and cosmetic. On the other hand, the connection of Manuel Fraga with the Franco regime was so evident that a generational replacement was necessary, in order that the refurbished PP (the party was refounded by then) could break the famous 'glass ceiling' of the Spanish Right.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on July 22, 2018, 09:38:19 AM
Sorry, I misread and thought you said it was NOT a rightward turn. My mistake.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 31, 2018, 08:54:49 AM
This is sort of unrelated, but I guess I'll post it here.

It's a map of control of the different provincial governments (diputaciones) and equivalents in the rest of Spain I made a while ago for Reddit.

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This map is actually mixing several stuff, so here's the explanation I made for the map:

Quote
Standard provincial governments (diputaciones): These are unelected, but instead are appointed deriving from the results of the last local elections. They are the least powerful and many people want to abolish them. There's one in each province in all multi-provincial autonomous communities except the Basque Country and the Canary Islands

Basque provincial governments (diputaciones forales): Pretty much the same as the others, except these ones are actually elected and have much more power.

Uniprovincial autonomous communities: Many autonomous communities have only 1 provinces (examples: Madrid, Asturias). Here I took the government of the autonomous community as it also takes over the powers the diputación would have (no point on having 2 if there's only one province in the first place)

Island governments (Cabildos in the Canary Islands, Concells insulars in the Balearic Islands): They have powers roughly equivalent to the Basque ones I guess or maybe just slightly inferior, but different. Still a lot more powerful than your standard diputacion. And also directly elected. They are elected by island, with one for each inhabited island, with the exception of La Graciosa in the Canaries (which has very low population and is only 3 km away from Lanzarote anyways)

Some of the more interesting stuff is seeing MES controlling almost everything in the Balearic Islands even though the regional government is led by PSOE, PAR managing to hold on in Teruel somehow (they actually came in third, but they are being propped up by PP and PSOE, who came first and second) and of course PSOE provincial governments in Soria and Pontevedra of all places, who have never voted PSOE in any election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on July 31, 2018, 01:53:51 PM
I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on July 31, 2018, 02:48:30 PM
I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).

Yup, the diputaciones forales are technically the ones in charge of handling the money from the concierto económico.  However I'd still say the Basque regional government is a lot more powerful than the diputaciones forales.

Though of course the diputaciones forales are still a lot more powerful than the standard diputaciones and also than the Cabildos/Concells.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 02, 2018, 10:36:58 AM
CIS July 2018. Fieldwork July 1 to 10, 1 month after Pedro Sánchez becomes the new PM and more than 10 days before Pablo Casado becomes the new PP leader.

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It's not surprising that PSOE is going up after the no confidence motion while Podemos drops. Obviously there's a vote transfer between the two parties in the left, but I don't think the PSOE can grow much more at the expense pf Podemos. The combined Cs-PP percentage is low, while the "others" percentage is a bit high if compared with other polls. I can't draw conclusions right  now. For sure some experts in media will dissect the poll insides.  

Immigration concern is three times higher than the previous month (11.1% in July to 3.5% in June), in coincidence with summer arrivals in Andalusia. In contrast concern on Catalonia is lower (6.3% to 7.1%). As usual, corruption and fraud (38.5%) and unemployment (64.3%) are the main concerns.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: windjammer on August 02, 2018, 10:43:54 AM
Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 02, 2018, 02:27:11 PM
Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 02, 2018, 03:24:08 PM
Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.

From some seat extrapolation's I've seen, this poll would predict a very bare majority (176) between PSOE, Podemos and PNV. That is a viable combination but of course this is a high point


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 03, 2018, 12:18:12 AM
Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 04, 2018, 07:02:15 AM
Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Casado had their first meeting

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/03/inenglish/1533288882_522322.html

Quote
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the main opposition leader, Pablo Casado of the Popular Party (PP), met for nearly three hours on Thursday at La Moncloa, the seat of government, to discuss issues ranging from immigration to gender violence and the situation in Catalonia.

But the meeting ended without any significant agreement, serving instead to highlight the division between the conservatives and the Socialist Party (PSOE) on the subject of Catalonia: while the latter thinks it is possible to respect the law and still hold talks with separatists, the PP rejects any form of dialogue with those who defend unilateral independence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 04, 2018, 08:32:10 AM
Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.

Maybe I am wrong here (you always can be watching from outside the nation) but the only sicking point between a PSOE-C's coalition is the Catalan issue - a C's red line. The two parties talked and attempted a government pact in the 2015-2016 crisis period, but it fell apart because C's and Podemos are polar opposites and refuse to support each other. There are a lot of stuff that both parties agree on, and other policies that as shown by 2015/16, are not hard to compromise on. If the numbers support a PSOE-C's government without any minor parties (or a PP-C's government if the situation flips), then I suspect it will be pursued by both parties. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 04, 2018, 09:10:56 AM
I wouldn't rule out the possibility, but I think that PSOE and Cs are much more distanced now than two years ago. Cs has shifted ostensibly to the right in order to catch all the PP vote. The Albert Rivera party has been always very hard line on Catalonia, but now oranges have to compete with Casado and that implies even more toughness. While PSOE favors dialogue on order to reestablish institutional relationship between central and regional governments (without making concessions on independence referendum or right to self-determination), PP and Cs are against talking with separatists. Both parties in the right are equally radical on this matter. Possibly PSOE and Cs can find some coincidences on policies and their deal in 2016 proves that, but Rivera's rhetoric against this government is so harsh that it's hard to imagine a new arrangement. But who knows, things can evolve in any direction.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 06, 2018, 03:36:32 AM
The Guardian: Spanish Right whips up fears as migration surge hits Andalusian shores. New rightwing party leaders are convinced that immigration will be a vote-winner, but on the front line in Algeciras there is more frustration than alarm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/05/spain-rightwing-parties-spar-immigration-surge-boats

Quote
(,,,) In a country that has traditionally been pro-immigration and devoid of a significant far-right party since its return to democracy, their words have raised eyebrows and concerns. “The first thing we need to be clear about is that there’s a bit of unwarranted alarm over the arrivals we’ve seen over the past month,” said Villahoz, president of Algeciras Acoge, the local branch of an Andalucian NGO that works to protect, educate and integrate migrants.

“In 2006, almost 40,000 reached Spain by arriving on the shores of the Canary islands and Cádiz. We’ve had lots of people arriving here for many years but it’s only now the politicians are making a lot of noise and creating a lot of alarm. In 2003, it was about 20,000.”

The politicians in question are Pablo Casado, the new leader of Spain’s conservative People’s party (PP), and Albert Rivera, who heads the rival Citizens party (...)

The sudden ignition of the debate on immigration in Spain by PP and Cs has raised alarms in Brussels. According to El País, a shivering attack hits the European Commission seat in Berleymont building. Spain, Portugal and Ireland remain as the countries in Europe lacking a far-right anti-immigration party in parliament. The fear is that, once the fear on immigration is fuelled, it's very difficult to put out the fire. EU is in a state of extreme fragility and is threatened by the rise of far-right populism. It cannot afford to lose Spain, as it happened with Italy. It's too early to say if Casado and Rivera are going to pursue this populist course of action, or they will tone down their calls to fear.





Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 06, 2018, 09:14:45 AM
Judge investigating master irregularities at Juan Carlos I University brings the case to the Supreme Court, suspecting that the Casado's degree was "given for free". Parlamentarians in Spain are "aforados" (they have a special legal status) and must be investigated by the Supreme Court, not by ordinary courts. Casado stated that he won't resign in case there is a formal investigation against him. Pedro Sanchez simply said that Casado should be accountable to Spanish citizens. Podemos demands that Casado resigns, while a Cs spokesman said the situation of the PP leader is "serious".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 13, 2018, 04:19:06 AM
Apparently La Razon did a recient poll on the monarchy and republicanism in Spain. The biggest question: "Should Spain become a republic?" saw a 64% no, 27% yes split; but with a massive age gap: Young people (under 35) support a republic by a 48-40 margin while everyone else supports the monarchy overwhelmingly

The related "Should a referendum on monarchy/republic be called" saw a similar result (32-62 overall) and a similar age gap (young people support it 52-44, everyone else doesn't want a referendum 28-64)

Other questions include the fact that both king Felipe VI and former queen Sofía have very positive approval ratings, while both former king Juan Carlos I and current queen Leticia are underwater (though still far better approval ratings than any politician; for comparison, Pedro Sánchez himself is at a 4/10 and Rajoy was at a 3.3/10 before being ousted)

Here's the full poll

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Of course there's no way the monarchy is going away unfortunately; as it's extremely protected in the constitution. Getting rid of the monarchy would require a "severe" constitutional reform of Title II (which requires 2/3 of both chambers, snap elections, 2/3 again and a referendum)

The only time I ever saw a reform of Title II considered at all was when Leticia was pregnant with her second child. Had she had a boy, under current law the heir to the throne would be the boy, not Leonor (the older sibling). The reform would have removed the preference for boys from the constitution. Of course, since she had another girl the reform was shelved as it was unnecessary, but if for some reason she had a son (which probably isn't happening) I guess we would see more debates on the monarchy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on August 13, 2018, 01:44:51 PM
What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 13, 2018, 03:35:10 PM
What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

From what I can tell it was basically cuts. There was a 10 000 million € cut early in Rajoy's tenure and healthcare investments are still lower than in 2009, both as a % of GDP and in total. There have also been increases in waiting lists for treatments.

The only "change" Rajoy brought was that illegal inmigrants wouldn't be allowed to use healthcare other than for emergency purposes. However reverting that was one of the earliest measures taken by the Sánchez government so maybe other than fully implementing it I don't know what they can do.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on August 13, 2018, 03:42:10 PM
What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

From what I can tell it was basically cuts. There was a 10 000 million € cut early in Rajoy's tenure and healthcare investments are still lower than in 2009, both as a % of GDP and in total. There have also been increases in waiting lists for treatments.

The only "change" Rajoy brought was that illegal inmigrants wouldn't be allowed to use healthcare other than for emergency purposes. However reverting that was one of the earliest measures taken by the Sánchez government so maybe other than fully implementing it I don't know what they can do.


Oh ok. Thank you for your answer.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 13, 2018, 07:24:10 PM
Apparently La Razon did a recient poll on the monarchy and republicanism in Spain. The biggest question: "Should Spain become a republic?" saw a 64% no, 27% yes split; but with a massive age gap: Young people (under 35) support a republic by a 48-40 margin while everyone else supports the monarchy overwhelmingly

Possibly there's not still a majority supporting the republic, but I doubt the monarchy has such a level of support given some recent events that have discredited the institution and led to the abdication of the now emeritus king:  the corruption scandal involving Iñaki Urdangarín and the Juan Carlos' affairs unveiled after the Botswana hunting accident. It wouldn't be surprising a certain pro-monarchy bias in a conservative newspaper like La Razón. On the other hand, it's telling the fact that CIS surveys stopped asking about monarchy shortly after the beginning of the King Felipe reign.

There is a recent international survey conducted by Ipsos that says Spanish monarchy has the lowest level of support among European monarchies. According to that survey 37% is openly in favour of abolishing monarchy and 52% in favour of a referendum.

https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/la-monarquia-espanola-la-menos-apoyada-entre-las-monarquias-europeas


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 16, 2018, 02:45:10 AM
Celeste-Tel / el diario.es

PSOE 28% 111-114 seats
PP 25.5% 101-104 Sears
Cs 19.4% 58-60 Sears
UP 17.3% 48-53 seats
ERC 3% 11-12 seats
PDeCAT 1.6% 6 seats
EAJ-PNV 1.1% 5 seats
EH-Bildu 0.9% 3 seats
CC-PNC 0.3% 1 seat

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-agosto_0_803170056.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: windjammer on August 16, 2018, 09:53:30 AM
Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 16, 2018, 10:49:24 AM
Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

It's possible providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists allow the investiture of Pedro Sanchez. Poll figures show a virtual tie between the Left and the Right, both in terms of vote percentage and seats. Peripheral nationalists hold the balance of power. The main difference between this poll and the CIS is the vote estimation for the PP (25.5% to 20.4%). It might be the 'Casado effect', but maybe the PP-Cs combined estimation was too low in the CIS. The PSOE-UP combined figures are around 45% in both polls.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 16, 2018, 12:03:55 PM
Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

Well, PSOE-UP-PNV only add up to 173 in their highest estimation. So it's within the margin of error but it's also an upset.

Of course PSOE-UP-ERC(-PNV) would indeed get a majority but I don't know if ERC would be willing to support that. Then again in Catalonia it seems that ERC is slowly becoming the "moderate" party and PDECat the radical one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 16, 2018, 01:35:12 PM
In case PSOE and UP win more seats than PP and Cs, Pedro Sanchez could be elected without a majority in a second vote providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists abstain. Remember that Rajoy won the investiture in 2016 with only 170 votes of 350, thanks to the abstention of a majority of PSOE MPs. First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 seats); second investiture vote requires simple majority (more affirmative than negative votes).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on August 16, 2018, 06:05:23 PM
In case PSOE and UP win more seats than PP and Cs, Pedro Sanchez could be elected without a majority in a second vote providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists abstain. Remember that Rajoy won the investiture in 2016 with only 170 votes of 350, thanks to the abstention of a majority of PSOE MPs. First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 seats); second investiture vote requires simple majority (more affirmative than negative votes).

Sure, but remember that back in 2015 PSOE+Pod+IU had 161 seats while PP+Cs had 163.

If what you say were true, in theory Sánchez should have become PM back in 2015; I don't think a "yes" vote from PNV would have been that hard to get.

If PSOE and UP win more seats than PP+Cs (or even slightly less, but with PNV support) it's all up to the Catalan nationalists again.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on August 17, 2018, 09:07:56 AM
Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 17, 2018, 09:11:49 AM
Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I think it is possible, but others don't. Either way, if the polls are accurate we are now right back where we started pre-Catalonia, a chaotic makeup that depends upon the minors for government. Barring sudden changes during the campaign, Spain could just be trading chaos for chaos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 17, 2018, 09:58:31 AM


Sure, but remember that back in 2015 PSOE+Pod+IU had 161 seats while PP+Cs had 163.

If what you say were true, in theory Sánchez should have become PM back in 2015; I don't think a "yes" vote from PNV would have been that hard to get.

If PSOE and UP win more seats than PP+Cs (or even slightly less, but with PNV support) it's all up to the Catalan nationalists again.

Pedro Sánchez wanted to make a deal with Podemos and peripheral nationalists, according to his own statements after he was ousted from leadership by the 'old guard' and the 'barons'. He couldn't do so because, after the 2015 elections, the PSOE Federal Executive Committee banned explicitly any attempt to make arrangements with Catalan separatist parties and banned in practice any arrangement with Podemos (Pablo Iglesias was very arrogant too, but that's a parallel issue). Given that he had the hands tied by his party in what regards the Catalan parties, Pedro Sánchez tried unsuccessfully to arm a "coalition of change" with Podemos and Cs. Purples and oranges crossed vetoes between them. Meanwhile Pedro Sánchez and his team forged an agreement with Cs and tried that at least Podemos abstained, but the Pablo Iglesias party deemed that deal unacceptable.

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I have tried to explain before that Cs has shifted to the right, especially after the crisis in Catalonia intensified past year. CIS surveys used to place Cs in the centre or the centre-right, scoring 5.5 on the ideological numerical scale (0-10 from left to right). Currently Cs is scoring 7 on the same scale, only one point less than PP. Citizens perceptions correspond with Cs stances indistinguishable from PP on issues like Catalonia, immigration or economic policy. The main difference between Casado and Rivera lies on the social conservatism of the PP leader. The tone of Cs leader Albert Rivera is very tough in criticizing the Pedro Sánchez government. Unless the tone, the turn to the right and the radical opposition to any kind of dialogue with Catalan separatists are reversed, I see very complicated that PSOE and Cs can form a coalition government. There's nothing impossible and there are stranger bed fellows than Sánchez and Rivera, but I'm very skeptic about this...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 02, 2018, 05:20:35 PM
It's been a while since we last got a poll (summer and all) but here's a new one:

Sociométrica / El Español

PSOE: 25.8% (103)
Cs: 23.1% (81)
PP: 22.6% (90)
UP: 16.5% (48)
Vox: 1.8% (1)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)

ERC: 3.0% (12)
PDECat: 1.5% (6)
PNV: 1.3% (6)
Bildu: 0.7% (2)
CC: 0.5% (1)
 
http://electomania.es/20180902sociometrica-2/

Possible majorities with this result:

PSOE+Cs
PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+PNV
PP+Cs+PNV



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 03, 2018, 09:09:14 AM
Another poll today, this time from NC Report

()

This one shows essencially a tied election between PP and PSOE with Cs in third and UP in 4th.


Also, today PM Sánchez announced a very interesting (albeit extremely vague) idea: A referendum in Catalonia for more autonomy, but ruling out the possibility of independence. No idea how that would work but it's an interesting proposal even though I think that it would be rejected by both secessionists and hard unionists. I guess it would be another estatut reform like in 2006. On paper PSC+Podemos+ERC+JxCat would have a majority to reform the Estatut.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-proposes-referendum-on-greater-autonomy-for-catalonia/

And related to Catalonia, the "Comitees for the Defense of the Republic" have announced that they will try to paralyze Barcelona by camping in a public square and protesting from the 11th of September (Catalonia's regional holiday) to the 3rd of October. No idea how that will work but there will certainly be a hot autumn like they are saying. I guess it will resemble the 15M protests from back in 2011.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheSaint250 on September 03, 2018, 10:00:21 AM
Was the Cs's growth more a result of people expressing frustrations with Rajoy's government? And now that there is stability people are ditching the party?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 03, 2018, 10:37:44 AM
Was the Cs's growth more a result of people expressing frustrations with Rajoy's government? And now that there is stability people are ditching the party?

Also partly the fact that the Catalonia issue is no longer the hot  button issue it was 6 months ago. C's are the ideal party in the eyes of right-wing Spanish when it comes to Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 04, 2018, 03:36:48 PM
The leader of Podemos in Catalonia and of the CatComú coalition, Xavier Domenech has announced that he is leaving his seat in the Catalan parliament and leaving politics altogether. Among the reasons, apparently he is leaving because of the bad result in the 2017 election (not that it made García Albiol in PP resign with a much worse result). He also claims to be tired.

He will go back to his old job as a university professor.

I think he will be missed. I didn't particularly like him nor hate him though any replacement for him will certainly be a lot weaker (except for possibly Colau)



In other notes, this 31st of August was the day that more jobs were destroyed in Spain ever, with more than 300 000 jobs lost. August is always a bad month and Fridays are always a bad day for jobs in Spain (tourism and all) but this seems to be bad news nontheless. The economy is certainly weaker than a year ago.

I could certainly see PSOE having come into power at just the wrong moment economically speaking.



Also, the Sánchez budget will have to wait. The Senate, with a PP majority, blocked the debt ceiling a while ago. Sánchez tried to pass a law through the emergency procedure in a single reading to remove this power from the otherwise useless Senate (power that was given to the Senate in 2012 by PP). However procedural stuff in Congress has rejected this so it will have to pass as an ordinary law and with the possibility of ammendments. So we won't have a budget until at least 6 months from now at the very least.

At this point I'm wondering if we'll ever see a budget being passed on time again.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 05, 2018, 08:46:13 AM
Cs leader Albert Rivera threatens to break the confidence and supply agreement with PSOE in Andalusia within two days. Rivera alleges breach on the part of premier Susana Diaz and urges her to fulfill some conditions (electoral reform and others). Susana Díaz says that two days are little time, accuses Rivera of electioneering and transmits signals that she could call elections this autumn. There have been rumours in previous months on early elections in Andalusia. In case Susana Díaz calls, a new electoral cycle starts in Spain.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 09, 2018, 05:50:02 PM
Today the Sánchez government has officially passed the 100 day mark. Nothing interesting related to that but  I guess we can now see the difference with the Rajoy government.

Apparently mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena has announced that she is running for reelection. While this would generally be good news for the left (I personally think Madrid is lost if Carmena had retired), it's caused a bit of trouble inside Podemos and IU since she has announced that she will run not as a party (whether officially "Unidos Podemos" or an instrumental party like Ahora Madrid in 2015) but instead as an "electors list"; basically running as an independent without any links to political parties. PSOE has said that they won't take part on the Carmena electors list.

In fact she has said that she will run for mayor even if she doesn't have the support of Podemos and IU and doesn't want to go through a primaries process. In any case I don't think Podemos/IU will try and run against Carmena.

Finally, we have a new poll. And for the first time, a pollster other than El Español shows Vox getting a seat!

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 27% (106)
PP 25,9% (106)
Cs 20,6% (68)
UP 15,9% (43)
Vox 1,5% (1)

ERC 2,8% (11)
PDeCat 1,9% (7)
PNV 1,1% (6)
Bildu 0,7% (2)

CC isn't shown, so I'm going to assume they get around 0.2% of the vote and no seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 09, 2018, 07:31:05 PM

Apparently mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena has announced that she is running for reelection. While this would generally be good news for the left (I personally think Madrid is lost if Carmena had retired), it's caused a bit of trouble inside Podemos and IU since she has announced that she will run not as a party (whether officially "Unidos Podemos" or an instrumental party like Ahora Madrid in 2015) but instead as an "electors list"; basically running as an independent without any links to political parties. PSOE has said i that they won't take part on the Carmena electors list.

In fact she has said that she will run for mayor even if she doesn't have the support of Podemos and IU and doesn't want to go through a primaries process. In any case I don't think Podemos/IU will try and run against Carmena.

Manuela Carmena is a good mayor that has reduced the astronomic local debt left by the PP governments. Also, she is taking steps to solve a number of problems (pollution, housing, etcetera) and she has a quite decent approval rate. Podemos and IU have their interests as political organizations, but people in both parties (and in the PSOE too) know that Manuela Carmena is the only hope for the Left to retain a city that otherwise is leaning to the Right. Carmena has been hesitating due to some health problems (she is 74) and some conflicts within her heterogeneous governing group. She is an independent and wants to run in an independent list ("voters grouping", a legal formula slightly different from the "instrumental party" Ahora Madrid) where people from Podemos, IU and other parties and organizations is invited to join. Manuela Carmena wants her close collaborators (Rita Maestre from Podemos and others) to be on the top of the list, as well she would like to get rid of some councillors that created problems (mostly people from Ganemos and the former treasurer, who is from IU). Pablo Iglesias would like to place loyals like retired general Julio Rodríguez, but it's likely that he will concede most of the Carmena's demands. On the other hand, the candidate of Unidos Podemos in the region of Madrid will be ïñigo Errejón and the coincidence between him and Carmena is total.

In other news, Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are in honeymoon. This week the PM and the leader of Podemos signed a draft deal that could serve as governing blueprint

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/07/inenglish/1536310023_380435.html

Quote
Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, and the leader of the leftist Podemos party, Pablo Iglesias, met on Thursday to discuss common goals on education, housing, taxes, foreign policy and historical memory, in what looked like a rehearsal for a potential governing agreement.

“There are good vibes, it’s a good start; if we do reach an agreement we would like to see out the term to 2020,” said Iglesias at a press conference following the two-and-a-half hour meeting.

Cs broke officially the confidence and supply agreement with the PSOE of Andalusia on Friday, in a meeting of the national executive held in Málaga, This will lead inevitably to snap elections in this southern region opening the new electoral cycle in Spain. Local, Regional and European elections are scheduled next year. General elections could take place in autumn next year in case Pedro Sánchez cannot pass the budget and stretches the timing.

Quote
GAD3 for ABC

Funnily enough, this pollster works for La Vanguardia too. I suspect the results of the polls for ABC and the Barcelona newpaper might differ a bit, which shouldn't be very surprising given that often polls reflect the customer's desires.

EDIT: The decision of Carmena to run in her own terms has raised criticism in IU, Ganemos and the anticapitalist faction of Podemos. In other words, those factions within Ahora Madrid that have confronted Carmena. Her announcement has been welcomed by councillors and people in the mainstream factions of Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 10, 2018, 07:14:02 AM
For a government with only 101 days in office, there sure have been a lot of ministers with scandals. First the Máxim Huerta thing and now this.

Apparently the minister of healthcare, Carmen Montón, also has an irregular masters degree at the same university as the PP politicians (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos). In this case she apparently got the masters degree even though half of the subjects were already over when she entered the course.

Honestly, I feel she should resign, not (just) for getting a masters degree fraudulently, but for doing a masters degree in gender studies. That alone shows she doesn't have good judgement xD

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/DIRECTO-master-Monton-claves-reacciones_13_813098683.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 10, 2018, 07:41:41 AM
Carmen Montón should resign immediately, since she has failed this morning in providing explanations for the many irregularities reported by journalists from eldiario.es (the same who unveiled the master irregularities of PP politicians). Pablo Casado should have never run for the PP leadership, because he got his master degree without studying.

I'm highly dissapointed at Carmen Montón, who held the Healthcare portfolio on the Valencian regional government and made a good job. She must leave. Said this, WTF with gender studies? Are you a male chauvinist or what?



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on September 10, 2018, 07:48:56 AM
That may be stupid question to ask, especially taking into consideration that Spanish politics recently become stupidly dynamic and interesting: how is PACMA doing these days? And VOX?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 10, 2018, 08:11:25 AM
Carmen Montón should resign immediately, since she has failed this morning in providing explanations for the many irregularities reported by journalists from eldiario.es (the same who unveiled the master irregularities of PP politicians). Pablo Casado should have never run for the PP leadership, because he got his master degree without studying.

I'm highly dissapointed at Carmen Montón, who held the Healthcare portfolio on the Valencian regional government and made a good job. She must leave. Said this, WTF with gender studies? Are you a male chauvinist or what?



It's a joke based on that the "gender studes" degree is often considered worthless. Not on gender studies or feminism themselves.

I do agree she has to leave for basically the same reasons, not that (which was a joke).

Also, former deputy PM Soraya Saénz de Santamaría is leaving politics altogether after her defeat in the PP primary.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/09/10/5b9662e9ca474183788b4623.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 10, 2018, 08:31:31 AM
That may be stupid question to ask, especially taking into consideration that Spanish politics recently become stupidly dynamic and interesting: how is PACMA doing these days? And VOX?

Who knows? From what I can tell Vox is probably around the 1.x% mark and on the edge of getting a seat. PACMA is around the same in the popular vote but with a much lower chance of getting a seat since it's more spread out.

In any case the snap Andalusian elections and especially the 2019 European elections will determine whether they get a chance at a seat or not.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 11, 2018, 02:52:55 PM
Well, minister Carmen Montón has finally resigned, one day after the accusations surfaced. today more accusations against her happened, this time of plagiarism. Her resignation is a bit weird since up until this evening PM Sánchez was still supporting her.

In any case, I guess the fact that there were even more accusations, plus internal pressure inside PSOE (even if Sánchez himself wasn't in favour of her resigning, many in the party did) forced her.

Good riddance IMO. This government certainly feels cleaner just because of how these scandals have been handled.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: swl on September 12, 2018, 07:59:10 AM
Seems like every Spanish politician is being accused of cheating on their master/doctorate thesis. Funny and ridiculous in the same time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 12, 2018, 08:30:07 AM
Yup. Today Rivera accused PM Pedro Sánchez of cheating in his doctorate thesis.

Sánchez's doctorate thesis is quite controversial, since it's technically public, but access to it is extremely restricted, you have to go to the university in person to see it, you are only given a limited amount of time and you can't take any photocopies or pictures.

So according to some rumours Sánchez's thesis is plagiarized, and even just the fact that access to it is very limited (when Sánchez himself could simply make it public) makes a lot of people believe something is off.

Also according to specialists, Sánchez's thesis seems very basic, which at the very least wouldn't justify the grade he got (cum laude)

Though apparently the university has done a first check to see if it was plagarized and the result was that it wasn't.

If anyone cares, it's officially registered in the respective department of the ministry of education, but the thesis itself is not there, just a 1 paragraph summary.

https://www.educacion.gob.es/teseo/mostrarRef.do?ref=1091215


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 13, 2018, 07:03:23 AM
Pedro Sánchez accepts the digital release of his thesis and will sue ABC, in case the newspaper doesn't rectify. Sánchez was very angry with Rivera yesterday and accused the Cs leader of "turning politics in a quagmire". Possibly Rivera wants to pressure Casado indirectly.

 Judge Llarena will be one of the members of the Supreme Court that will decide there's enough evidence to open an investigation to Casado on the charges of prevarication (as a collaborator) and "improper bribery" for having benefitted of an unjust administrative resolution (the master degree). In other words, if the investigation will move forward if the judges of the high court consider there are enough signs to suspect that Casado's master was a gift and the PP leader was aware of it and collaborated  with the corrupt public officials.

 Llarena, on the other hand, is the same judge that prosecutes the case against Catalan separatist politicians, alleging rebellion. Puigdemont has sued Llarena in Belgium, accusing Spain of being a "delinquent state". Spanish government will handle defence costs to Llarena, after some controversy and criticism from the Right.

Meanwhile there was the usual massive demonstration in Barcelona to commemorate the Diada (Catalan national celebration) on September 11.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 13, 2018, 07:11:07 AM
According to the monthly Celeste-Tel poll released by eldiario.es, PP is growing at the expense of Cs while PSOE halts its growth

PSOE 28.2%, PP 26.4%, Cs 18.7%, UP 17.1%, Others 9.5%

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/PSOE-ascenso-PP-creciendo-Ciudadanos_0_813669536.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 13, 2018, 07:55:53 AM
BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

Quote
Forty-three years after the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has begun the complex process of exhuming his remains from the Valley of the Fallen memorial site.

Today, the Cabinet approved a legislative decree that will add a pair of articles to the Historical Memory Law to legally safeguard the exhumation. Once approved, the decree will be put to a historic vote in Congress.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 13, 2018, 10:09:26 AM
Also today in Congress the reform of the Canary Islands statute of autonomy was passed. I looked it up and it's the first passed statute reform for any autonomous community since 2011. Technically it still has to go through the Senate, but it should pass easily unless Sánchez calls a snap election for some reason.

https://www.canarias7.es/politica/el-congreso-aprueba-la-propuesta-de-reforma-del-estatuto-de-canarias-DG5484498

Among the key features, the islands will get more self government, the special taxation regime (REF) will be more protected and the islands will get a new electoral system. Other minor but important features are that the premier of the islands gets the ability to call snap elections independently of all other regions (Valencia already has this iirc) and also gets the abilty to rule by decree, like the Prime Minister (not sure if any other place has this).

The new electoral system, while still bad, is a slight improvement over the old one. The Canary Islands parliament will go up to 70 seats, from the current 60. Of these 10 new seats, 1 will be assigned to the island of Fuerteventura (which before had 7 seats compared to La Palma's 8, even though it had a higher population). The other 9 will be assigned in a regional constituency.

The electoral barriers have also been lowered to 15% on a single island or 4% in the entire archipielago (down from 30% and 6% previously). Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

Viable coalitions: CC+PSOE; CC+PP+Cs; CC+PP+ASG

So yeah, CC still wins while coming 3rd in the popular vote. And the new system still has the smaller islands overrepresented. So while an improvement (particularly lowering the electoral barriers), it's far from great.

The vote in Congress was:

Yes: PP, PSOE, CC, NCa, PDECat, PNV
No: Podemos
Abstaining: Cs, ERC


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 13, 2018, 05:47:23 PM
Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

How did you calculate this allocation of seats? As far as I know the draft does not detail the system of allocation of the regional list seats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but this reform s botched.

The affair of the Pedro Sánchez thesis is something like a somekescreen, useful for Rivera in order to regain protagonism and to divert the focus from important things. I have heard that the rivals of Pedro Sánchez in the PSOE already examined it and didn't find signs of plagiarism.

For instance, yesterday's vote was belated but historic. The abstention of PP and Cs is very idifficult to justify. I think the Spanish Right won't be tretaed well by posterity on this issue

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/13/inenglish/1536852062_932166.html

Quote
The PP and center-right group Ciudadanos had already stated that they would abstain at today’s vote to approve or reject the decree. The two no votes were cast by PP deputies Jesús Posada and José Ignacio Llorens, who later said they had meant to abstain

Quote
In a post on Twitter, Prime Minister Sánchez wrote after the vote: “Justice. Memory. Dignity. Today #Spain has taken a historic step to redress the rights of the victims of Francoism. Today our #democracy is better

Quote
Podemos deputy Íñigo Errejón said: “Today we take Franco out of the Valley of the Fallen mausoleum because a dictator cannot rest together with his victims. Our country is settling some of its debts with democracy, with justice and with the redress due to the victims of the dictatorship.”

Franco's family is opposed

Quote
The seven grandchildren of Francisco Franco have filed a petition with the Ombudsman’s Office, requesting the latter to mount a legal challenge in the Constitutional Court against the government decree to exhume the dictator’s remains from the Valley of the Fallen. The Franco family says that the exhumation “goes against the will of his descendants.”



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 14, 2018, 02:11:48 AM
BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

Quote
Forty-three years after the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has begun the complex process of exhuming his remains from the Valley of the Fallen memorial site.

Today, the Cabinet approved a legislative decree that will add a pair of articles to the Historical Memory Law to legally safeguard the exhumation. Once approved, the decree will be put to a historic vote in Congress.

Wonderful news.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 14, 2018, 06:30:37 AM
Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

How did you calculate this allocation of seats? As far as I know the draft does not detail the system of allocation of the regional list seats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but this reform s botched.


[/quote]

From what I can tell the regional list seats are just treated like any other constituency, so I just asigned the 9 seats proportionally to the regional results (iirc it ended up something like PSOE 2, PP 2, CC 2, Podemos 2, NC 1).

Other than that I just recalculated the results in each island taking into account what Cs got (since they would now be above the threshold), and the extra seat in Fuerteventura.

Of course if the extra regional seats are meant as leveling seats (as opposed to just an extra constituency) that would be harder to calculate, but it would also be better.

As for the Franco stuff, I don't think it will cost many votes to PP/Cs (if at all), but it might make it harder for them to take centrist voters and distances them from literally every other party in Congress.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 14, 2018, 08:58:22 AM
Had this system been used for the 2015 regional elections, the new result would have been:

CC: 20 (+2)
PSOE: 17 (+2)
PP: 14 (+2)
Podemos: 9 (+2)
NCa: 5 (-)
ASG: 3 (-)
Cs: 2 (+2)

How did you calculate this allocation of seats? As far as I know the draft does not detail the system of allocation of the regional list seats. Maybe it's better than nothing, but this reform s botched.



From what I can tell the regional list seats are just treated like any other constituency, so I just asigned the 9 seats proportionally to the regional results (iirc it ended up something like PSOE 2, PP 2, CC 2, Podemos 2, NC 1).

Other than that I just recalculated the results in each island taking into account what Cs got (since they would now be above the threshold), and the extra seat in Fuerteventura.

Of course if the extra regional seats are meant as leveling seats (as opposed to just an extra constituency) that would be harder to calculate, but it would also be better. [/quote]

I'm afraid the draft does not specify if the regional seats will be calculated as levelling seats (they should) or as an extra constituency. Possibly it will be the second option by default. A way to calculate the possible result with levelling seats is treating the Canary Islands as a single constituency and then subtract the seats each party wins in the insular constituencies.

Results in insular constituencies (61 seats)*

CC 18, PSOE 15, PP 12, Podemos 7, NC 4, ASG 3, Cs 2

*Compared with the actual result  Cs wins 1 seat in Tenerife and 1 in Gran Canaria; CC loses 1 seat in Tenerife to Cs and gains the extra seat in Fuertecentura; NC loses 1 seat in Gran Canaria to Cs

Canary Islands as a single constituency (70 seats, D'Hondt)

PSOE 16, PP 15, CC 15, Podemos 12, NC 8, Cs 4, ASG 0

The problem is that CC and ASG won 3 seats more in the insular constituencies than the seats allocated in the second calculation, so we would need  overhang seats that are not present in the electoral reform.

Difference between second and first calculations:

PSOE 1, PP 3, CC -3, Podemos 5, NC 4, Cs 2, ASG -3 (Total: 9)

After some calculations, I found that the result could be (regional seats in brackets):

CC 18 (-), PSOE 15 (-), PP 13 (1), Podemos 10 (3), NC 7 (3), Cs 4 (2), ASG 3 (-)


Conclusion: if the seats of the regional constituency are intended to be levelling seats, 9 seats are too little. To put it in other words: this electoral reform is a fraud.

Quote
s for the Franco stuff, I don't think it will cost many votes to PP/Cs (if at all), but it might make it harder for them to take centrist voters and distances them from literally every other party in Congress.

This is not a question of winning or losing votes.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 15, 2018, 08:43:13 AM
Yes, it's not about votes but still. Remember that PP didn't formally condemn Francoism in Congress until 2002. It might make them look bad but their base doesn't care.

As for the reform, as a sidenote, if the regional constituency is elected separately it will be the first time that a paralel voting system will be used in Spain. I don't think it will happen but it would be interesting to see the diferences between the island and regional vote (particularly in La Gomera). It will also make counting slower.

Also, the Vox rise is real. 3 of the last 5 polls have included them.

IMOP/El Confidencial

PSOE: 26.5%
Cs: 23.9%
PP: 20.3%
UP: 15.4%
Vox: 3.0%
PACMA: 2.1%

ERC: 2.8%
PDECat: 1.5%
PNV: 1.2%
Bildu: 0.7%

Finally, in Sánchez's thesis scandal, he has released it and the like, and now he is threatening to bring charges against the newspapers that accused him of plagiarism. The 3 newspapers that did (ABC, El Mundo and OKDiario) aren't going to retract themselves so I guess it will end up in court.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 15, 2018, 10:00:03 AM
It's not only the PP. Cs supported a legislative proposal on the subject put forward by PSOE past year. It's very difficult to justify that Spanish "liberals" don't support now the exhumation of Franco's remains from that awful place called Valle de los Caídos, something that is long overdue. 43 years is a very long time, but it's better late than never.

As for the thesis of Pedro Sánchez, there is no such scandal. It's simply slander, as Borrell said. Rivera, Casado and the conservative papers muddy the waters, They prefer making noise to make valid criticism on matters that deserve it (for instance, the management of that contract deal in laser guided bombs with Saudi Arabia). That's the way of acting usual in the Spanish Right. Casado lacks the moral authority (the master affair), but it doesn't matter because many right-wingers in Spain are shameless.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 15, 2018, 01:48:34 PM
Yup, I'd say Sánchez's doctorate is clean. Or at the absolute worst, the accusations against him, even if they were true, can't really be proven easily. For example, the accusation that it was a shadow writer (Carlos Ocaña) who really did the thesis, has been rejected both by Sánchez and by Ocaña himself, so unless they have proof that they are lying there's nothing there.

And of course Casado is not the right person to accuse Sánchez of that. I wonder what will happen if the Supreme Court ends up indicting Casado under charges of bribery and prevarication.

As for Cs and Franco, they are clearly trying to get votes from PP, they seem to have abandoned any pretense of being centre-left or even centrist; and are clearly right of center by now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on September 18, 2018, 07:27:48 AM
Major news, Spain has rejected an extradition request on the behalf of the Swiss gov for an HSBC whistleblower
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-tax-spain/spain-rejects-latest-swiss-bid-to-extradite-hsbc-whistleblower-idUSKCN1LY1EG
How are banks viewed in Spain, are chains viewed similarly or more intense than in the states.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 18, 2018, 06:02:03 PM
Former PM was today in Congress, told a lot of lies and seemed to be very delighted with himself. It's hard to explain how arrogant and unpleasant can be this insufferable little man

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/18/inenglish/1537279288_066798.html

Quote
Former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar was grilled in a congressional commission this morning over the illegal financing of the conservative Popular Party (PP) while he was at its helm. The ex-politician, who was the head of the government from 1996 to 2004, responded to the questions by denying any wrongdoing, attacking his questioners and changing the subject of the conversation to other issues. A particularly tense moment came when he accused the leader of left-wing party Unidos Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, of being “a danger to democracy.”

In other news, Pedro Sánchez proposes a constitutional reform in order that MPs can be judged by ordinary courts for charges unrelated to their official duties

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/17/inenglish/1537192289_050046.html

Quote
The Socialist Party (PSOE) government is planning to reform the Constitution in order to end  aforamiento – the Spanish term for protection offered to politicians, judges and others from prosecution in the country’s lower courts.

Speaking at an event in Madrid, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced on Monday that the measure could come into force in just 60 days if there is consensus in parliament. “The challenge we have is for citizens to believe in politics once more,” he said to an audience of politicians and leading business figures. The reform, he continued, would send a “relevant, unequivocal sign of setting a good example of solidarity and empathy” to Spaniards.

This proposed 'express reform' seems extemporaneous and doomed to fail. given that the PP support is necessary and that party is not willing to. I don't know if it will work as a public relations campaign. Spanish Congress voted today a motion on the same subject put forward by Cs. PP and PSOE supported it but took advantage to attack Cs. Podemos and PNV voted against because Cs rejected an amendment on removing the king's inviolability. Catalan separatists voted against too. The value of the motion is merely symbolic.

Major news, Spain has rejected an extradition request on the behalf of the Swiss gov for an HSBC whistleblower
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-tax-spain/spain-rejects-latest-swiss-bid-to-extradite-hsbc-whistleblower-idUSKCN1LY1EG
How are banks viewed in Spain, are chains viewed similarly or more intense than in the states.

The argument to deny extradition is that there's nothing in the Spanish criminal code similar to 0aggravated financial espionage', which may indicate that bank secrecy is much more important in Switzerland. This week Belgium rejected the extradition of a rap 'artist' called Valtònyc because 'glorification of terrorism' and 'insult to the Crown' don't exist in the Belgian code. Answering your question, I think that rhe banks were seen better before the last financial crisis and the bailout to the Spanish banks.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 19, 2018, 07:15:41 AM
There have been insistent rumours in the last months that placed former French PM Manuel Valls as possible candidate for Mayor of Barcelona, presumably on the top of a 'constitutionalist' independent list backed by Cs. A Paris Match cover released in late August featured Manuel Valls with his new girlfriend Susana Gallardo. According to Paris Match Mr Valls has found happiness with Gallardo, portrayed by the French magazine as a Catalan businesswoman committed to the unity of Spain. Manuel Valls, who was born in Barcelona, implied in a recent interview that personal factors could influence his decision to run for mayor in the local elections next year. He said that he would make a decision at the end of summer. It's yet to confirm (within a few days), but there are two related news that may indicate something:

 1) There's an online petition demanding the resignation of Manuel Valls as member of the French National Assembly, because the promoters consider that Valls has became a "ghost deputy" that spends too much timer in Spain preparing his candidacy for Barcelona.

https://www.change.org/p/farida-amrani-exigeons-la-d%C3%A9mission-de-manuel-valls-d%C3%A9put%C3%A9-fant%C3%B4me-de-l-assembl%C3%A9e-nationale

2) According to El Periódico, Manuel Valls is beginning to organize his campaign. Valls would have offered a post of adviser to Xavier Roig, a man who was the right hand of former mayor Pasqual Maragall (PSC). Maragall was in office between 1983 and 1996 and during his tenure the <Barcelona Olympic Games took place, later he became premier of Catalonia (2003-2006) in re`placement pf Jordi Pujol. Hiring Roig could be an asset for Valls, in order to arm a strong candidacy in Barcelona.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180918/valls-ofrece-campana-electoral-xavier-roig-7041748

Manuel Valls and Susana Gallardo in Paris Match:

https://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Manuel-Valls-Susana-Gallardo-son-nouvel-amour-1570858

In case Valls decides to run, his main rivals would be incumbent mayor Ada Cola (BComú, backed by Podemos)u and the pro-independence candidate backed by Puigdemoint (presumably Ferran Mascarell. formerly in PSC). It's unclear if pro-independence parties will form a unity list (Puigdemont list and ERC) or run in their own.

I


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: windjammer on September 19, 2018, 08:33:23 AM
RIP Spain. Although to be honest Valls fits so well Ciudadanos


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 19, 2018, 09:34:58 AM
Yay, unpopular foreign Prime Ministers for mayor! Though to be fair, if Valls somehow became mayor it would be quite a significant event in the EU, the first time a foreigner becomes mayor of an important town in another country.

In any case though, Valls seems to me like a significant underdog. Colau is favoured since she can get the support of both unionist parties (PSC) and secessionist parties (ERC, CUP); plus the fact that the right has only won the elections in Barcelona exactly once (in the 2011 right wing landslide)

The secessionists (particularly ERC or if they make a joint list) do have a chance of unseating Valls, but Cs doesn't.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 19, 2018, 09:45:47 AM
RIP Spain. Although to be honest Valls fits so well Ciudadanos

Manuel Valls would like to be candidate of a 'constitutionalist' coalition with Cs, PSC and PP. It's highly unlikely that Catalan Socialists accept to be in that list. Maybe PP could consider to join if polls say they would disappear from the city council, but I'm not sure. Cs leader is very enthusiastic with the possibility and he would like that Manuel Valls was the candidate of his party, but the French politician prefers a broader coalition. There is an evident affinity between Rivera and Valls and the latter seems to have plans to stay in Barcelona. I don't like Valls, but I think the campaign would be very interesting with him running. In any case, his chances of winning a majority are null and his chances of placing first depend on external factors (i.e the unity of the pro-independence parties or the Ada Colau's resilience). If he was to be the mayor, I'd say "poor Barcelona", but I don't think this is the likeliest outcome.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 25, 2018, 11:11:45 AM
Well, what used to be the bestt pollster, the public CIS, is now going to do monthly polls, instead of 1 poll every 3 months. The change is good, and their first monthly poll is this one

CIS

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Honeestly, this poll is terrible garbage. We should rename CIS to "Centre of Socialist Investigations" by now lol.

The reason why it's thrash is basically that PSOE is way up and PP way down. Especially compared with the "direct vote intention" (before adjustments are made), where PSOE is actually way down from the last poll and PP quite up.

I still believe PSOE should be ahead, but by 1-2 points, not by 10 like the poll shows. In fact, a direct extapolation would show PSOE winnning in literally all provinces except the 4 catalan ones, 2/3 Basque provinces and Ávila.

Other weird stuff is ERC being way up (4% is a lot), Bildu out of nowhere overtaking PNV when literally no other poll predicts that

Also, the funniest crosstab of all time, apparently 16% of CC voters will now vote for Bildu. Yes n=1 but still considering that Bildu and CC don't run in the same provinces I'm having a hard time thinking about such a voter.

Only good thing is that it does show Vox and PACMA (for the first time I think, at least for Vox). With 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, they are both at the edge of getting 1 seat, with Vox being slightly closer because of  their vote distribution (PACMA is more spread out)

We also have 2 more (and better IMO) polls:

DYM for El Independiente and Prensa Ibérica

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Metroscopia

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Finally, we also have some regional polls. I'm not going to post them all but if anyone cares here they are

https://www.electograph.com/search/label/Auton%C3%B3micas

In terms of my "ratings", I'm now less confident about PP winning again in Melilla (though they should still be favoured) and think that GBai is ahead in Navarra (instead of being a tossup)



Finally, in non polling related news, Manuel Valls is officially in as Cs' candidate for Barcelona mayor

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/former-french-pm-seeks-political-redemption-in-barcelona-1.3640045


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 25, 2018, 11:35:24 AM
Also, there's a scandal in the Sánchez cabinet (again). This time involving a leaked private conversation from minister of Justice Dolores Delgado calling minister of the interior Fernando Grande-Marlaska a fa*** (maricón) all the way back in 2009. Grande-Marlaska is openly homesexual.

The conversation was recorded by the controversial Jose Jimenez Villarejo. Not only that but apparently she initially denied having been with him, then apparently she had to admit she had been with him.

In any case, not sure if she will end up resigning but if she does it will be the 3rd resignation in slightly less than 4 months lol.

This government is having a ton of scandals for some reason. They are handled better and are less serious than the PP scandals IMO but still there are a ton. Then again that might be my political leanings.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: EPG on September 25, 2018, 02:37:18 PM
Finally, in non polling related news, Manuel Valls is officially in as Cs' candidate for Barcelona mayor

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/former-french-pm-seeks-political-redemption-in-barcelona-1.3640045

Lara says he would rather not be just C's, later confirmed in the official announcement of his non-party candidacy, and from Le Monde I learned a new word to me, "le parachutage".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on September 26, 2018, 04:28:57 AM
Finally, in non polling related news, Manuel Valls is officially in as Cs' candidate for Barcelona mayor

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/former-french-pm-seeks-political-redemption-in-barcelona-1.3640045

Lara says he would rather not be just C's, later confirmed in the official announcement of his non-party candidacy, and from Le Monde I learned a new word to me, "le parachutage".

Exactly. Valls will run as an independent candidate with the support of Cs.

The CIS poll is not credible. Anyway the PSOE resists on the top, making gains at the expense of Podemos. The Pedro Sánchez government is like a fortress under siege and the grace period comes to an end. The Dolores Delgado affair is clearly blackmail. PP and Cs fight for the second place, with advantage for the latter. The radicalization of Casado (PP) and Rivera (Cs) might be boosting Vox.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on September 27, 2018, 06:24:31 PM
And yet another scandal in the Sánchez government. This time involving Science and Universities minister Pedro Duque (the famous "astronaut minister")

In this case Duque is being accused of buying his house through a "business without activity" in order to pay less in taxes. Meanwhile Duque claims that he didn't do anything illegal and that he ended up paying the same amount in taxes that he would have paid otherwise, and that his actual salary was also paid directly to him and not through that business.

And of course earlier declarations of Sánchez on the issue have come to bite him back. This time he apparently claimed in 2015 that "If someone in the executive of my party had created a society to pay less in taxes, that person would be out of the executive next morning".

Not sure if Duque should resign or not honestly.

But yet another scandal makes me worried about the Sánchez government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 27, 2018, 08:47:13 PM
All these scandals make it seem like the Sanchez government came to power 'before its prime' so to speak. They were thrust into power and had to stick people in government without a proper vetting. Might not be true, but thats the image.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on September 28, 2018, 10:25:56 AM
BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

Quote
Forty-three years after the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has begun the complex process of exhuming his remains from the Valley of the Fallen memorial site.

Today, the Cabinet approved a legislative decree that will add a pair of articles to the Historical Memory Law to legally safeguard the exhumation. Once approved, the decree will be put to a historic vote in Congress.

Wonderful news.

Why do C's even abstain. They should be a liberal pro-Europe political party, but they secretly still admire Franco. Ugh, Spanish politics is sick.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 02, 2018, 11:36:55 AM
Yesterday it was the anniversary of the illegal referendum called by the separatist government of Catalonia. It wasn't a a legally valid referendum and the results were not internationally approved. However the October 1 will be remembered by the unnecessary police brutality, which was the visible consequence of the Rajoy's awkwardness. About 2 million of Catalans, overwhelmingly pro-independence, turned out on that day to express their desire to vote. I think the leaders of the independence movement of Catalonia are a bunch of liars that have fed their people with false hopes and false arguments. Anyway there is some Spanish centralist nationalism that is even worse, Those citizens were excercising their freedom of expression and casting ballots in a fake referendum does not harm anybody. The disproportionate police response damaged the international reputation of Spain.

The independence movement claims to be peaceful and civil. This has been true so far, but there are disturbing signs on the horizon. Yesterday 'radical separatists'  tried to storm the Parliament of Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/02/inenglish/1538467014_334868.html

Quote
Hundreds of radical separatists defied the Catalan police on Monday, attempting to storm the regional parliament on the first anniversary of an unauthorized referendum on independence.

There were unprecedented scenes when violent protesters advanced towards the legislative building at the end of what had been a peaceful demonstration by thousands of pro-independence Catalans in Barcelona. At around 9.30pm, hooded activists broke through a police cordon and marched to the doors of the building crying “Occupy parliament!”


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on October 02, 2018, 01:29:21 PM
BREAKING

Spanish Congress supports a legislative decree approved by the government in August in order to exhume and move away the Franco's remains from the Valle de los Caídos memorial.

The vote went as follows: 172 in favour, 164 abstentions and 2 against. All PP and Cs deputies abstained, except two PP members who voted against alleging mistake.

On the legislative decree

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/24/inenglish/1535097265_662248.html

Quote
Forty-three years after the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has begun the complex process of exhuming his remains from the Valley of the Fallen memorial site.

Today, the Cabinet approved a legislative decree that will add a pair of articles to the Historical Memory Law to legally safeguard the exhumation. Once approved, the decree will be put to a historic vote in Congress.

Wonderful news.

Why do C's even abstain. They should be a liberal pro-Europe political party, but they secretly still admire Franco. Ugh, Spanish politics is sick.
Because a lot of their support comes from nationalists. They hammered their colors to the mast in the Catalonia crisis.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 02, 2018, 01:41:15 PM
And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 02, 2018, 01:45:21 PM
And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

Well, that would be a quicker govt. collapse then expected, I thought they would last till spring.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 02, 2018, 02:20:31 PM
Yeah, me too. I expected that either Sánchez would expire his term, call a snap election well after the EU elections (say, autumn 2019) or the budget fails and Sánchez calls the election in February/March at the earliest.

Though I guess the last scenario can still happen, PDECat might not support Sánchez but they sure aren't going to support Casado/Rivera either. Though maybe Rivera should get in touch with them and call a no confidence vote which clearly is intended just to call an election with an independent caretaker government?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 04, 2018, 10:28:13 AM
And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

The ultimatum failed in less than 24 hours, due to the lack of support from ERC and PDeCAT. Premier Quim Torra, who is an independent elected in the Puigdemont list (JxCAT), acted in his own without talking with the parties supporting his government (I ignore if he contacted Puigdemont and his Waterloo clique). Torra was asked to resign in previous days by the 'radical separatists' of the CDR (Committees to Defend the Republic, close to the CUP) and by the 'unionist' opposition (PP and Cs). Just before the October 1 anniversary Catalan premier encouraged the self-organized CDR groups to keep pressure in the streets. Hardline separatist Torra was being called 'traitor' by the CDR radicals because of previous incidents with the regional police and because his government isn't implementing the 'Catalan Republic'. Kind words didn't ingratiate Torra with the 'radicals', whom tried to storm the regional parliament after the October 1 demonstration forcing regional police to repeal them. These incidents prove that the separatist parties and organizations (ANC, Òmnium) are the losing control of the treets, as well as show the incompetence of the regional government. As for the ultimatum ensuing the riots, it shows that Torra is an amateurish and incompetent gambler unworthy of Machiavelli. I think Catalan parties are aware that making Pedro Sánchez to fall will benefit Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera- Unlike Sánchez, Casado and Rivera don't want to talk with separatists. The two parties of the Spanish Right want to implement article 155 again, imposing again direct rule in Catalonia and extending the control of the central government to education, TV and radio. Casado also wants to outlaw separatist parties.

Days ago Quim Torra sent a letter to the Spanish PM copied to world leaders

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/04/inenglish/1538642944_252769.html

Quote
Catalan premier Quim Torra sent a letter at the end of September to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, copied to US President Donald Trump, the pope and other world leaders, in which he asked for help in mediating a referendum on Catalan independence.

According to the Spanish newspaper El Periódico, Torra expresses willingness to engage in negotiations with the government and makes no reference of the ultimatum he made on Tuesday, when he threatened to withdraw support for the Socialist Party (PSOE) government in Congress if Sánchez does not propose an authorized referendum on secession from Spain within a month

The letter is written in English and addressed to Sánchez, but Torra also copied in Trump, Pope Francis, EU heads of government and the presidents of China, Ukraine and Kosovo.

 






 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 07, 2018, 05:37:56 AM
El Confidencial did an interesting report analyzing the voters of the 2 latest "emerging parties": PACMA and Vox

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2018-10-06/vox-pacma-encuestas-elecciones-cis-escano_1626357/

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Basically:

Vox has an average age of 55. So quite the old party, probably shared with PP.
PACMA has a very young base, with the average age being 33!.

Vox (much like similar parties in Europe) has a very masculine base of 63% men, while PACMA has a very feminine base of 70% women. In both cases it's a lot more skewed than the main 4 parties (which never go beyond something like 57-43 either way)

PACMA is voted mostly by leftists, with 47% being on the left (0-4) and another 25% on the centre (5). Interestingly there are 6.3% of right wing PACMA voters.

On the other hand Vox is quite on the right, with almost no voters on the left, 16% on the centre and 21% on the centre-right (6). More than 60% of Vox voters place themselves clearly right of center (7-10)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 08, 2018, 08:34:36 AM
It's finally official now, Susana Diaz will call a snap Andalusian election for the 2nd of December, in order to avoid having it the same day as a hypothetical snap election.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20181008/susana-diaz-convoca-elecciones-anticipadas-andalucia-7077227

Though honestly she should have called it much sooner (ideally for late October), particularly when the ERE corruption judgement is around the corner. I wonder when will be the exact date, but the court ruling will certainly come during the campaign or just before it.

In any case, Andalucia is Safe PSOE, the only question is whether she will do a deal with Cs again or maybe with Podemos (even though the Andalusian Podemos branch hates her and she hates Podemos as well)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 14, 2018, 09:38:44 AM
A couple of new regional polls (we will start getting more and more of these as we get closer to May 2019). We also get one of the few polls that show Vox with chances at a seat in a regional election (which surprised me honestly)

El Heraldo de Aragón for Aragon regional elections

PSOE: 23.6% (17-19)
PP: 22.3% (16-19)
Cs: 21.4% (15-17)
UP: 17.3% (11-12)
PAR: 5.7% (3)
ChA: 3.2% (1)
Vox: 2.7% (0-1)

https://www.electograph.com/2018/10/aragon-amasm-181014.html

My rating: Lean PP (flip)

Even in the best case scenario for the left, they still lose their majority. IMO Lambán is toast, only way he manages to hold on is with a PSOE-Cs coalition (with or without PAR). But the left will certainly lose their majority here

They also did polls for the mayors of the 3 provincial capitals (Zaragoza, Huesca, Teruel). The general summary seems to be:

https://www.electograph.com/2018/10/aragon-capitales-amasm-181014.html

Huesca: Tossup. The left will probably win in terms of votes, but because of Aragón Sí Puede (which may be Podemos, IU or neither!) and ChA falling shortly below the 5% threshold (both around 4%), a right wing government is within the margin of error.

Zaragoza: Lean PSOE (flip). Mayor Santiesteve (Podemos) is toast. He drops from a narrow second in 2015 all the way to 4th. Zaragoza for some reason has been quite a left wing city (even holding its PSOE mayor in the 2011 wave!). However the left combined still adds up to a majority. PSOE goes up a lot, while PP stays the same and Cs rises quite a bit. ChA may or may not make the threshold. Finally Vox was polled and got around 3%, well below the threshold (but still sort of close).

Teruel: Safe PP. The right increases in a place where PP+Cs already got short of a majority by just 1 seat in 2015 (currently there's a PP+Cs+PAR coalition). The only question is how much will it increase and how close Cs will get to PP, but really Teruel is safe for PP.

CC internal only in Gran Canaria, for the Cabildo and the regional parliament

Cabildo

NC: 27.5% (9)
PSOE: 17.4% (5-6)
CC-Unidos: 14.7% (4-5)
PP: 12.5% (4)
Cs: 10.8% (3)
UP: 10.7% (3)
Others: 6.4%

My rating: Safe NC

Morales is very popular and is safe IMO. Only question is whether NC-PSOE will be enough or whether he'll also need Podemos or someone else.

Canary Islands parliament (15 Gran Canaria seats)

PSOE: 20.5% (3-4)
NC: 17.4% (3)
UP: 15.8% (2-3)
PP: 13.5% (2)
Cs: 13.3% (2)
CC-Unidos: 13.3% (2)
Others: 6.2%

Lol, all parties almost tied with each other. No rating since this is just one constituency, but in general ok news for the left (though they lose 1 seat compared to 2015) and great news for CC, which goes up in a hostile island (then again it's a CC internal so no wonder).

The poll also includes several approval ratings for various local politicians:

https://www.canarias7.es/binrepository/estimacio-n-voto-octubre-2018_4114712_20181013220146.pdf

Honestly the most surprising is that premier Fernando Clavijo is somehow above water in the most hostile island to him! (5.3/10)

Keep in mind that this isn't just an internal, but also an old internal, allegedly from July.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 17, 2018, 07:08:30 AM
Well, the budget was presented the other day to Brussels and presented by the government. The big changes in the budget are:

Increasing minimum wage to 900€

Increasing income tax for those earning over 130 000€

Reforming the law of urban rents, to protect tenants, to allow municipalities to put price controls in bad areas and increasing the budget of the national housing plan by 200 million €

Raising the smallest pensions by 3% in 2019 and making pensions rise according to inflation from now on

Rasing the minimum corporate tax to 15%, taxing dividends and profits (currently they are 100% tax free, now they'll only be 95% tax free), introducing a financial transactions tax of 0.2%



Also, we got our first poll for Andalucía after the election was called

Aurea Project for esdiario.com

PSOE: 32.8% (37-40)
PP: 23.6% (29-32)
Cs: 18.5% (20-22)
AA: 19.0% (19-22)

PACMA: 2.3% (0)
Vox: 1.0% (0)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 22, 2018, 04:57:01 AM
Well, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias has visited ERC leader Oriol Junqueras in prison, to try and unlock the budget a bit. He has also spoken over the phone with PDECat leader Carles Puigdemont. The situation seems to be the same, with ERC and PDECat claiming there won't be a budget without the so-called political prisoners being freed, while the government claims they can't do that as the judicial branch is independent from the executive branch.

He will also meet with Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu soon.

IMO the budget will pass but it all depends on the Catalan secessionists (I don't expect PNV to put much of a fight). Depending on the time of day and who you are asking they adopt either a hardline or a more concilliatory approach.

Keep in mind that the budget only needs a simple majority, so at least one of ERC and PDECat could abstain instead of outright voting in favour (depending also on what Bildu and CC do of course)


In polling news, we also got one more poll for the Andalusian regional election due for early December

NC Report for La Razón (Andalusian regionals; 109 seats, 55 for a majority)

PSOE: 36.6% (45)
PP: 23.4% (28)
AA: 18.6% (22)
Cs: 14.0% (14)

IMOP Insights for El Confidencial (Andalusian regionals)

PSOE: 29.8%
Cs: 22.3%
AA: 21.7%
PP: 20.5%

So yeah, Andalucia remains Safe PSOE; with the only questions being what happens with the other 3 (who comes in 2nd, 3rd and 4th and the margins) and whether PSOE will reach a deal with AA or with Cs. I think the former is easier now because of the national environment, but keep in mind the Andalusian Podemos branch is one of the more hostile ones to PSOE, while the Andalusian PSOE branch is one of the most conservative ones.

We also got some national polling over the last few weeks, including one of those "big if true" kind of polls

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE: 27.7% (109-112)
PP: 26.3% (101-104)
Cs: 19.3% (60-62)
UP: 17.4% (47-51)
Vox: 1.0% (0)
PACMA: 0.8% (0)

ERC: 3.0% (11-12)
PDECat: 1.7% (6)
PNV: 1.1% (5)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (2)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Simple Lógica

PSOE: 25.2%
PP: 23.8%
Cs: 21.6%
UP: 17.3%

NC Report for La Razón

PSOE: 26.8% (105-107)
PP: 26.7% (107-109)
Cs: 19.5% (62-65)
UP: 16.8% (45-48)
Vox: 1.9% (1)

ERC: 3.0% (11-12)
PDECat: 1.4% (5-6)
PNV: 1.1% (5-6)
EH Bildu: 0.7% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Metroscopia

PSOE: 25.2%
PP: 22.6%
Cs: 19.2%
UP: 17.7%
Vox: 5.1%!

Others: 10.2%

The Metroscopia poll is a big outlier, but if true it would mean that Vox would actually get around half a dozen seats, and their own parliamentary group! (instead of going to the mixed group alongside Bildu and CC)

A general election remains a tossup, but PSOE's lead has narrowed down since the no confidence vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 28, 2018, 05:19:59 PM
Well, Podemos proposed legalizing marihuana right after Canada did it, but their proposal ended up just being that, a proposal. Interestingly Cs also supports marihuana legalization while PP and PSOE oppose it.

Still, there was a poll made on the topic which is quite interesting:

()

Honestly, I'm surprised that no wins, I'd have thought that legalization would win. Also, PSOE supporters are almost equally split, and even more suprisingly, Cs supporters lean quite heavily towards no even though their party supports it!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 29, 2018, 07:32:18 AM
Ousted Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont launched a new party, on the anniversary of the unilateral declaration of independence. RIP Convergència / PDeCAT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/27/ousted-catalan-leader-carles-puigdemont-launches-new-party

Quote
year after threatening the unity of Spain with an attempt to declare independence, the former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont launched a new party on Saturday, as part of a new bid to rally separatists from his base in Belgium.
Tensions flare at Barcelona protests on anniversary of independence vote
Read more

The new group, named Crida Nacional (National Call), held a founding congress on Saturday evening, marking the one-year anniversary of the secession push, but it has struggled to attract a groundswell of support, with some allies being held in Spanish jails and others choosing a more moderate political path.

The meeting of Puigdemont’s new party was held in the pro-independence town of Manresa, in the centre of Catalonia, near the prison where independence leaders are being held.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 29, 2018, 07:41:58 AM
So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 29, 2018, 08:53:11 AM
So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?

The Crida Nacional is aimed to be a political movement that unites the pro-independence people under the leadership of Carles Puigdemont. However, there is an increasing division in the separatist camp. The relationship between premier Carles Puigdemont and deputy premier Oriol Junqieras was already bad a year ago. By that time Puigdemont was convinced by some people (Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu, former regional minister Santi Vila and others) to call a snap election in order to prevent the intervention of central government in Catalonia. But Puigdemont couldn't resist the pressure from ERC , people within his own party and the pro-independence associations (ANC, Ômnium). They considered that calling regional elections after the October 1 'referendum' was a concession to the Spanish state and were pushing for the UDI. The premier could not bear the idea of being called "traitor" by his people and turned back (the infamous"155 silver coins" tweet wrote by ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián did a lot of harm). However ERC has turned to a more moderate and pragmatic stance (broadening social base for independence, abandoning unilateralism)  after the UDI failure, the intervention of central government and the imprisonment of its leader Oriol Junqueras. In contrast Puigdemont and his inner circle remain on a more radical secessionist stance from their base at the Waterloo mansion, near Brussels. Puigdemont took over the PDeCAT in the party convention held in July, relegating moderate leaders like Marta Pascal (she was key in the no-confidence motion: the woman that ousted Rajoy). The party agreed to join the projected new political movement, the Crida Nacional. I believe that PDeCAT will retain party status by now, but this is probably the death of the old Convergéncia*.

*In short:

PDeCAT (Catalan European Democratic Party) is the refundation of the CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia), disbanded in July 2016 at a convention held in Barcelona. Former premier Artur Mas was the last leader of CDC and the iirst leader the new party,.

DiL (Democracy and Freedom) was a coalition between CDC and a minor party called Democrats of Catalonia (splitted from UDC) for the 2015 Spanish general election. CDC ran in its own in the 2016 general election.

JxCAT (Together for Catalonia) was a coalition between the PDeCAT, CDC (which retained legal registration despite refoundation, allowing JxCAT to get time in TV) and independents to contest the December 2017 regional election. Actually it was a personal vehicle for Puigdemont, who placed like-minded independents in top positions marginalizing PDeCAT members.

The battle between the new Crida Nacional and ERC in next year's local elections promises to be tough.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 29, 2018, 12:58:12 PM
ERC announced that Oriol Junqueras will be candidate for the EP elections. A party spokesman dismissed the possibility of a joint pro-independence list, arguing that ERC and JxCAT/Crida get better results when they run in their own. Junqueras is the ERC leader and was the deputy premier in Puigdemont's government. He is in preventive detention since November 2017.

Previously the spokeswoman of the Catalan government Elsa Artadi supported a joint list for theEuropean Parliament and the Barcelona City Hall, suggesting that JxCAT/Crida would accept that Junqueras tops the EP list. Artadi is economist and one of the top persons in JxCAT. Formerly in the PDeCAT, she's now an independent and a Puigdemont loyal.

As said above, ERC is unwilling to dissolve in a coalition. Besides the candidacy of Junqueras, ERC nominated Ernest Maragall candidate for Mayor of Barcelona. Maragall was in the PSC and is brother of former Catalan premier and Mayor of Barcelona Pasqual Maragall. JxCAT/Crida have no candidate yet. Possible candidates are former regional ministers Ferran Mscarell (also a former PSC member), Neus Munté and Joaquim Forn (both PDeCAT, formerly CDC). Polls are consistently placing ERC ahead of the heirs of Convergència (PDeCAT, JxCAT, Crida, whatever).

PDeCAT chairman David Bonvehí says there will be a consult to the membership on the way they will coalesce in the Crida Nacional.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 29, 2018, 07:16:56 PM
Quote
Besides the candidacy of Junqueras, ERC nominated Ernest Maragall candidate for Mayor of Barcelona. Maragall was in the PSC and is brother of former Catalan premier and Mayor of Barcelona Pasqual Maragall.

Ernest Maragall interviewed by Stephen Sackur (Hard Talk, BBC). Great :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=641&v=vUzu8UUbvGA&fbclid=IwAR0du2cTPwOcXNT65m8Sgo0LrnWieZtks8aYr9pgJwIBBbCoQFM41OWCXi0



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 30, 2018, 02:34:23 PM
Apparently the full list of parties that will run in the Andalusian election is out. However this is just a preliminary list, many of them will eventually be discarded. Still, the parties and coalitions that have at least registered to run are:

Running in all 8 provinces

Partido Socialista Obrero Español. (PSOE-A)
Partido Popular.  (PP-A)
Coalición Adelante Andalucía (Podemos-Izquierda Unida-Primavera Andaluza-Izquierda Andalucista)
Ciudadanos Partido de la Ciudadanía. (Cs)

Vox.
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal. (PACMA)
Coalición Equo Verdes-Iniciativa Andalucía.

Unión Progreso y Democracia. (UPyD)
Andalucía por el Si. (AxSí)
Partido Comunista del Pueblo Andaluz. (PCPA)

Running only in certain provinces

Coalición Recortes Cero-Por un Mundo más Justo-Grupo Verde.
Coalición Conecta Andalucía (Partido Agora de Andalucía-Partido Integro de Centro Democrático).
Coalición Unidos por la Democracia (Unidos Si-Democracia Efectiva)
Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M).
Convergencia Andaluza.
Nación Andaluza. (NA)
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos.
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos-Linares.
Partido Republicano Independiente Solidario Andaluz. (Partido RISA)
Alternativa Republicana. (ALTER)
Escaño en Blanco.
Izquierda Anticapitalista Revolucionaria. (IZAR)
Partido Comunista de los Pueblos de España.
Partido Comunista Obrero Español.
Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores y las Trabajadoras de España
Soluciona.
Respeto.
Falange Española de las Jons.
Independientes de Huelva (IxH)


The first block (in colour) are the ones that will almost certainly get seats. The underlined ones are the ones that won't get seats but have a chance of breaking 1%. Everyone else won't even break 1%

Of the minor lists running in all 8 provinces, the most interesting ones are Vox and PACMA obviously because of the national implications.

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. Same with UPyD, it might be interesting to see just how dead are they.

As for the extremely small lists running only in certain provinces, I don't think any of them is all that interesting tbh.

If you care about minor parties, there's an interesting split between PCPE and PCPA, both far left tankie style communists and there's been a split in the national party (they can't agree on a party leader) so apparently they are running 2 different parties (an achievement for a party that gets 0.1% of the vote).

Other than that there are several communist parties, several nationalist parties (which I did mention could be interesting), several far right parties, and a couple parties I know nothing about


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: bigic on October 30, 2018, 03:59:02 PM
"Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M)" seems like a Podemos splinter?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 30, 2018, 04:50:12 PM
Honestly looking them up on the internet it seems there's almost no information about them. The only site where they were described claimed that it's actually a PSOE splinter and a coalition between 2 parties: Cambiar Si Se Puede and Podemos15M (which apparently is not the same as regular Podemos)

In any case, super tiny parties can get real confusing, real fast; I wouldn't read much (if anything) into them.

In local elections they can be fun to read into but they never have real implications for the most part.

Plus, keep in mind that many of these will actually be rejected for one reason or another. When I did this for the Catalan regional election of the 10 or so tiny parties that ran only like 3 were actually on the ballot.

Granted that election was under unusual circumstances but I'd still expect around half of those lists to not be on the ballot. Especially the weirder ones that appeared out of thin air and that I know nothing about.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on October 30, 2018, 05:59:37 PM
I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 30, 2018, 06:01:55 PM
I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?

No real reason honestly. I guess people who are pro Spanish union but more progressive and leftist than Cs? (they've moved to the right in recient times)

UPyD is just in zombie form anyways though, it will eventually dissolve slowly into oblivion, kind of like CDS back on the day. UPyD's last chance (and an incredibly remote one at that) is the 2019 EU election but they almost certainly won't get a chance.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 31, 2018, 10:00:20 AM
AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. 

AxSÍ is clearly borrowing its name from Catalan separatists: see Junts pel Sí (JxSÍ) and Catalunya Sí (a coalition led by ERC). This might lead to confusion in what regard the goals of these Andalusian nationalists. From what I'm reading in their political manifesto, they are not calling for the independence of Andalusia. They advocate for the full development of self-government, federalism, multinational state, etcetera.

Nación Andaluza ("Andalusian Nation", NA) is openly separatist. According to the party's web page, NA is pro-independence, socialist and feminist. It's also a "sovereigntist, anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist collectivity" and its goal is to achieve "the national liberation of our Country and the social liberation of our People".

Quote
If you care about minor parties, there's an interesting split between PCPE and PCPA, both far left tankie style communists and there's been a split in the national party (they can't agree on a party leader) so apparently they are running 2 different parties (an achievement for a party that gets 0.1% of the vote).

This split continues a long established tradition in far -left parties. The Communist Party of the Spanish People (PCPE) is an old splinter of the Communist Party of Spain (PCE) founded in 1984. I met secretary general Carmelo Suárez years ago, because he was living in the same estate that some old friend of mine. Suárez is architect and I think he and the fathers of my friend had a cooperative housing society. Long live Marx and Lenin!

 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on October 31, 2018, 12:15:57 PM
Yeah AxSí, even if it tries to borrow from Junts x Si in Catalonia, is actually a nationalist but unionist party, much like the old PA; or like CC in the Canary Islands; nothing like ERC and PDECat.

NA is the true secessionsist party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 31, 2018, 01:54:48 PM
I don't know if the AxSÍ party is more or less nationalist than the old PA, which was a centre-left regionalist party. Personally I'd use the word "regionalist" rather than "unionist" to characterize this kind of regional parties because: a) "unionist" has some "centralist" connotation (Cs and UPyD would fit perfectly here, while Vox would be extreme unionist"); b) there are regional parties that are not openly separatist but are somewhat sovereigntist (Compromís and Catalunya en Comú come to my mind). Also, there are regional parties with little to none sovereigntist elements (CC*, PRC, UPN...). I think AxSI does not fit in the last category because its manifesto has mentions to "federalism" and the "multinational state" (estado plurinacional).

In any case, prior to 1984 the PA was called Socialist Alliance of Andalusia and later Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA, from 1979 to 1984). There is a curious fact: the PSA contested the first Catalan election held in 1980, getting 2.66% of the vote and winning 2 seats in Barcelona province. The PSA/PA did not contest subsequent Catalan elections, but a winning seats in 1980 indicates the importance of Andalusian immigration in Catalonia. There were 840k Andalusians living in Catalonia in the early 70s and currently there are 1.1 million of people of Andalusian heritage living there. Catalonia is called sometimes the "9th Andalusian province"

Because of the above mentioned, the political crisis in Catalonia is going to be (presumably) an important issue in the Andalusian campaign. Especially in the case of the Cs campaign, because the leader of the oranges in Catalonia Inés Arrimadas was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and the Cs leader Albert Rivera is a Catalan with Andalusian ancestry. Both Rivera and Arrimadas are going to campaign in support of low-profile candidate Juan Marín. The Andalusian election is very important to Cs in its aim to replace the PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right and the main alternative to PSOE in the southern region.

*Actually there are a few sovereigntist and nationalist elements in CC, that is a heterogeneous coalition of regional and insular parties. Anyway, CC is above all a regional interests party and is far from being a threat to the unity of Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 02, 2018, 10:43:45 AM
Today the proposed punishments for the Catalan secessionist leaders have been published, and there's a split between the Solicitor General's Office (which directly responds to the Spanish government) and the Attorney General's office (which is independent from the Sánchez government). No idea if this kind of split is common or not, but it was to be somewhat expected

The proposed punishments from each judicial organization are:

Attorney General (generally harsher, it does accuse them of rebellion)

Oriol Junqueras (Deputy premier and regional minister of Economics): Head of Rebellion and public fund misuse. 25 years in prison and another 25 years of political inhabilitation (where he can't have any elected office)

Jordi Sánchez (leader of the secessionist organization ANC): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years of inhabilitation

Jordi Cuixart (leader of the secessionsit organization Ómnium): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Carme Forcadell (president of the catalan parliament): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Jordi Turull (speaker of the Catalan government): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Raul Romeva (regional minister of foreign affairs): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Joaquim Forn (regional minister of the interior): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Josep Rull (regional minister of territory and sustainability): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Dolors Bassa (regional minister of labour, social affairs and family): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Carles Mundo (regional minister of justice): Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and a 10 month fine.

Meritchell Borrás (regional minister of government, public administrations and housing). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

Santiago Vila (regional minster of business, resigned shortly before the UDI). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

6 other politicians were charged with disobedience and punished with a 10 month fine and 1 year and 8 months barred from public office

Solicitor General's office (generally more lenient, the ones accused of rebellion are accused of sedition instead)

Oriol Junqueras: 12 years in prison

Carme Forcadell: 10 years in prison

Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sánchez: 8 years in prison

Jordi Turull, Raul Romeva, Joaquim Forn, Josep Rull, Dolors Bassa: 11 and a half years in prison

Carles Mundo, Meritxell Borras, Santiago Vila: Still 7 years in prison, but only 7 more years barred from public office

For the other 6 processed people for only disobedience, the punishment is still the same except for Mireia Boya (speaker of CUP in the catalan parliament) and Joan Jusep Nuet (member of the parliament table, who decides schedules and when and what to vote, appointed by Podemos), who are only charged with 8 months barred from public office.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2018, 09:41:28 AM
The government is being attacked from all sides. The Spanish Right claims treason, while Catalan separatists say that they are disappointed

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/02/inenglish/1541146388_493726.html

Quote
The move is not likely to please anyone in the opposition. Catalan pro-independence parties want all charges to be lifted, while the conservative Popular Party (PP), under whose administration the secession push took place, will contend that dropping the rebellion charge is Sánchez’s way of paying back the Catalan separatist parties that helped him win his no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy in late May.

This view is seconded by Ciudadanos, a center-right party whose secretary general José Manuel Villegas on Friday accused Sánchez of favoring the jailed separatists for political reasons. “Mr Sánchez has been acting like the defense attorney for the coup plotters for several days now,” he said in an interview with radio station SER. “He is not making a decision for the general good, but because he needs the coup plotters’ votes in Congress.”

Right now ERC and PDeCAT are unwilling to vote the budget and it seems difficult that they change their minds. Trial against Catalan separatist leaders begins in January; political climate won't favour agreements. The Pedro Sánchez government is already in a weak position. With no budget and attacked from two sides, holding on government means constant wear. With these bleak picture, we cannot rule out general elections in May. 



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 03, 2018, 09:49:02 AM
I personally hope the general election doesn't take place at the same time as the EU/local elections.

A mega-election with literally everything possible on the ballot seems like a bad idea to me and will lead to "coattails" instead of each position being considered individually.

I'd personally favour either an election in March (if the budget fails) or in Autumn 2019 (if the budget somehow succeeds)

But yeah, the climate doesn't seem leading to agreements. I can see Sánchez getting Podemos and PNV quite easilly. Maybe Bildu/CC as well but they aren't decisive. However the decisive votes of ERC and PDECat seem hard to get.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Michael19754 on November 03, 2018, 03:52:53 PM
This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2018, 04:56:21 PM
This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...

That would be a gloomy prospect, IMO. In case PP and Cs win a majority and implement direct rule in Catalonia again, but in a harsher way, then it'd be better that Spain gets ready. I think it's obvious that the course of action proposed by the Spanish Right won't address the real problem: the existence of separatist feelings in Catalonia. I have the impression that repressive measures would be bad for the unity of Spain in the mid term. As far as I know, neither Casado nor Rivera are proposing any kind of measure that could lead to a meaningful solution to the Catalan conundrum. For instance, Casado could not claim that banning separatist parties will end separatism without insulting intelligence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2018, 05:14:39 PM
In case separatists chhose again frontal collision and the "wose is better" strategy, that could backfire on them. The escalation of the conflict would affect Catalonia in all respects: struggling economy, increasing social tension and so on. The srustration caused by dashed illusions is potentially very dangerous.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 03, 2018, 05:43:38 PM
Yep, a PP-Cs majority (or worse, a PP-Cs minority depending on Vox) is probably the worst case scenario for secessionists unless they plan on accelarationism, or like Rajoy said: "The better for you the worse, and the worse for you, the better".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glMm5w7K4Yg

That was a gaffe back on the day but it actually sums up the Spanish right and the Catalan secessionists quite nicely :P

Speaking of Rajoy, I remember reading an article in El Mundo where the people who actually activated and dealt with article 155 (the Rajoy cabinet and people close to him) are disappointed about the parties policies in Catalonia.

Whereas Rajoy hesitated a lot on applying article 155, and applied it only as a last resort and only after thinking about it for a long time and negotiating a broad consensus, nowadays Casado's PP and Cs want to activate it for no reason adding fuel to the fire while PSOE is way too lenient on Catalonia.

Here's the article:

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/10/28/5bd4c007e5fdea4e178b45db.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Michael19754 on November 03, 2018, 06:22:56 PM
Anyways, the root of all this are the punishments that the prosecutors are seeking. In my opinion they are completely ridiculous. 25 years for organizing a referendum that resulted in nothing but symbolism? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Nogueira (who killed several memebers of his family) gets a shorter sentence. I get the embezzlement charges, the money came out of somewhere, but rebellion?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on November 03, 2018, 06:39:01 PM
Anyways, the root of all this are the punishments that the prosecutors are seeking. In my opinion they are completely ridiculous. 25 years for organizing a referendum that resulted in nothing but symbolism? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Nogueira (who killed several memebers of his family) gets a shorter sentence. I get the embezzlement charges, the money came out of somewhere, but rebellion?


Insecure Castillans need to prove their culture is superior by oppressing other cultures.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2018, 08:11:34 PM
Catalan separatist leaders breached the law. I think that the 'disconnection law' passed by the Parliament of Catalonia in September 2017 and the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017 are more serious breaches than the referendum itself. As I see it, the vote held on October 1 was merely symbolic, a big demonstration of people demanding a real referendum of independence. But the so-called 'disconnection law' was aimed to provide some cover to the process of secession from Spain. Separatists put themselves outside the law, unilaterally and lacking of popular legitimacy (pro-independence parties represent 47.5% of voters). The unilateral declaration of independence on October 27 was a tragic nonsense (there was a sharp contrast that day between the somber atmosphere inside the parliament and the people waiting outside). Separatist leaders later claimed that the declaration was merely symbolic and they were kidding around (according to Clara Ponsatí), but they knew that article 155 was ready to be implemented and feared the legal consequences of their actions.

 It's obvious that the Judiciary must act when legality is breached, but implementing the principle of proportionality. I too believe that the charge of rebellion and the 25 years are disproportionate. Also, the recurring claim of the Spanish Right and associate media is ridicolous: they should turn to a dictionary, because what happened a year ago in Catalonia wasn't a coup. But beaching the law must have consequences, so the people involved in past year's events must be accused of something. Opposition parties are pressing from opposite sides: the Spanish Right cries "coup" and "rebellion", separatists demand absolution. I think it's clear the government is not handling well rhis convoluted situation.

I believe that any kind of political solution will have to involve pardon for the separatist leaders. The problem is that a heavy and disproportionate punishment will make a political solution very difficult. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 04, 2018, 05:41:50 PM
Well we were a bit overdue for polls so here we have 3 new ones:

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections

()

Yeah, basically confirms that the Balearic Islands regional election is a tossup, and that it will most likely depend on PI (centre-right nationalists) to either put PP back in power or keep premier Armengol for 4 more years.

Worth noting that UM (PI's spiritual predecessor) supported both PSOE-left nationalist governments in the 00s as well as PP governments in the 80s and 90s.

Also worth noting that the last time a Balearic Islands government was reelected was all the way in 1995; since then no premier has served more than a single consecutive term

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for Andalusian regional elections

()

Stil safe PSOE. A terrible poll for Cs though, who barely goes up from 2015, and a really good one for PSOE and PP, to the point where PSOE actually gains in the popular vote!

GESOP-El Periódico de Catalunya for general elections

()

2nd poll in a row that shows Vox around 4%. Maybe their rise is real? Worth noting that if they get 5 seats and 5% of the vote they gain the right to their own parliamentary group instead of going to the mixed group, which grants them longer parliamentary speeches, and the like*

For the rest, good result for PSOE (GESOP is quite PSOE leaning though) and for Cs, who narrowly edge out PP

Honestly if these kinds of results with Vox way up are real it makes me wonder how large they would be if PP had gone with the more moderate Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría instead of the further right Casado as party leader. Would we be speaking of them breaking 7%?

*Keep in mind that if Vox falls narrowly short (say 4 seats and 4.x% of the vote), it's far from uncommon for parliamentary groups to agree to give them a group for them by bending the rules. A good example is UPyD in 2011 who narrowly fell short of the 5% required for a parliamentary group, but got one anyways. On the other hand, if the people in charge of parliament are feeling strict they can also not bend the rules (like Amaiur 2011 or PDECat 2016, neither of whom got a parliamentary group even if they also fell barely short)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 04, 2018, 05:55:15 PM
Cs held a political event today in a town called Alsasua (Altsasu in Basque), located in the north of Navarre. Albert Rivera achieved an unprecedented feat: uniting the parties of the right and the far-right (Cs,PP and Vox) in defense of the Constitution, the Unity of Spain and the Guardia Civil.

Two years ago, two members of the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) were attacked by a group of young radical nationalists in a bar. The policemen were beaten and insulted at night in the town centre; they were out of service and having a drink with their partners. The attackers were sentenced to prison on terms hanging from 2 and 13 years. The judges didn't find evidence of terrorism or links to ETA, but considered other aggravating circumstances such as abuse of superiority and ideological hatred. The sentence was deemed excessive by relatives and neighbours, whom consider the incidents were only a tavern fight. There were some protests.

Albert Rivera spoke only 50 meters away from the scene, protected by a strong police force from a thousand radical Basque nationalists. The Cs leader proclaimed that "here in Alsasua constitutionalism can be reinforced and sanchismo weakened", inviting attendants to "shake hands around the constitution" to stop the evil Pedro Sánchez.

Protesters made noise to sabotage the event, ringing the bells of the town church (without priest permission) while an ETA victim was speaking. The night before someone left dung in the event's place. Police agents escorted Cs members and the rest of attendants, while a group of Alsasua neighbours put themselves between the radical protesters and the riot police to keep peace.

A couple of PP officials and Vox leader Santiago Abascal attended the event. Some PSOE official said that the event "exacerbates conflict", while the Alsasua mayor (Geroa Bai) deemed it as a "provocation"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/04/actualidad/1541327690_538842.html

Altsasu/Alsasua has a population of around 7,000 . It's located next to the Basque border in a Basque speaking area and Basque nationalist parties are strong there.

Results of the 2015 local elections in Alsasua:

Nafarroa Bai-Geroa Bai 36.8% 5 councilors
EH Bildu 21.4% 3 councilors
PSOE 13.5% 2 councilors
Goazen Altsasu (likely Podemos outfit) 12.3% 2 councilors
UPN 6.6% 1 councilor

Mayor: Javier Ollo (Geroa Bai)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 08, 2018, 09:42:35 AM
The mortgage tax saga has finally ended.

Since I don't think anyone has spoken about it, basically it goes like this:

First, a Spanish Supreme Court ruling claimed that banks would be responsible to pay a mortgage related tax, and that ruling would start applying with effect in all of Spain and probably retroactively. However the next day the Supreme court suspended the ruling to re-evaluate it, in something unprecedented. Yesterday, the Supreme Court met and decided that the customers would now be the ones responsible for paying the tax and not banks. Finally, today the Spanish government announced a law-decree changing the mortgage law to overturn that ruling

https://elpais.com/economia/2018/11/08/actualidad/1541679667_089777.html

This certainly doesn't help make Spanish courts more believable and harms their reputation quite a bit.

Also, a plan to murder PM Pedro Sánchez by a lone wolf was discovered today. I don't think the murder would have been successful at all but still worth noting that maybe polarization has consequences.

If murdered, Pedro Sánchez would become the first murdered PM since PM Carrero Blanco in 1973 (during the last few years of the dictatorship). Worth noting that Aznar had a failed assassination attempt by ETA in 1995 though he was not the PM at the time

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/11/08/catalunya/1541663459_738366.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Michael19754 on November 11, 2018, 08:37:33 AM
GAD3 for La Vanguardia:
PSOE: 26.6%(106-109)
PP: 22.3%(89-93)
C's: 21.9%(73-75)
UP: 16.6%(48-50)
VOX: 3.4%(0-2)
ERC: 2.9%(8-12)
PdeCAT: 1.4%(3-6)
Turnout: 72%
Three quarters believe Sánchez should call a general election if the budget isn't passed and 52% disapprove of the job the government is doing.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 12, 2018, 03:41:32 AM
There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

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The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Fukaren kown yteh on November 12, 2018, 09:51:40 AM
There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

()

The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela on November 12, 2018, 09:58:30 AM
There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

()

The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?
The explosive growth of C's, I'd presume.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 12, 2018, 10:32:42 AM
There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español

()

The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.
What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?

Well, I imagine this is a right leaning poll, but if confirmed, for PSOE it would basically be the corruption scandals (particularly the ERE case), fatigue (if PSOE wins, they will have officially been in charge longer than Franco!) and the fact that Susana Díaz isn't really all that popular (I imagine she lost a lot of points when she ran against Sánchez and lost)

For Podemos, I guess it's just extrapolating from their national trend, maybe combined with the fact that Podemos-IU coalitions rarely get all the votes they get when running separately


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 12, 2018, 12:16:56 PM
So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 16, 2018, 11:18:20 AM
Well, today the election campaign for the Andalusian elections started. Here are campaign posters and slogans from the 4 main parties:

PSOE: More Andalucia

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PP: Warranty for change

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AA: Andalucia Forward

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Cs: Now yes, Ciudadanos

()

Here are the last few polls as well:

SW Demoscopia-Publicaciones del Sur for Andalusian regional elections

()

The most surprising thing about this one is that it actually gives not just Vox seats, but also AxSí!

CIS for Andalusian regional elections

()

This one interestingly gives Vox 1 seat, for Almería (with a whopping 7% there!) instead of the usual 0-2 bracket (which implies seats for Sevilla and Málaga).

Overall, while the overall scenario hasn't changed, most polls are now showing a 3 way tie for second. The nightmare scenario for PP I imagine would be to come 4th and with Vox entering parliament. If that happens, there's a real chance of PP going the way of UCD in the early 80s (ironically, PP definitively "killed" UCD at the 1982 Andalusian election, when they got 2nd and UCD 3rd)

We also got several general election polls, generally showing PSOE down a bit, Cs up a bit, PP down a lot and Podemos stagnant

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for general elections

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NC Report-La Razón for general elections

()

Invymark-La Sexta for general elections

()

Simple Lógica for general elections

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 16, 2018, 11:28:32 AM
Also, yet another scandal on Sánchez's cabinet. This time affecting economy minister Nadia Calviño, who had a similar scandal to the one Pedro Duque (minister of science and universities) had, where she bought a house through a fake business to pay less taxes.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181116/452969685434/nadia-calvino-casa-sociedad-desvinculada.html

I'm now wondering how many scandals is this cabinet going to get. Like looking at the initial cabinet composition, there are now 6 ministers who had scandals, 3 for avoiding taxes (Máxim Huerta, Pedro Duque, now Nadia Calviño), 1 for faking her master's degree (Carmen Montón), 1 involved in Villarejo's recordings (Dolores Delgado) and 1 who had a somewhat controversial involvement in the bankrupcy of Abengoa (Josep Borrell, though that scandal was previous to his involvement in the Sánchez cabinet)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 25, 2018, 03:07:22 AM
El País released a poll for the Andalusian elections conducted by 40dB (Belén Barreiro) instead of the usual Metroscopia (at last)

()

PSOE comes first with loses, as everybody predicts. Tight contest for the seond place between PP, AA and Cs. Vox at the gates of the Andalusian Parliament. Holding on the second place could save Pablo Casado's face despite the heavy loses. Losing the second place to Cs or AA would be catastrophic for the PP. There is concern in the PP and Cs ranks caused by the rise of Vox. Pablo Casado is campaigning frantically throughout Andalusia conveying messages such as "immigrants must adapt to western customs or leave". I think such statements are not useful to stop the Vox rise, as they only amplify the anti-immigrant message of the far-right party. Anyway Casado has said that he has coincidences with Satiago Abascal and even has praised the man (don't forget that Vox is basically a radical PP split). Cs has chosen to ignore Vox and I'm not sure that's the best way to deal with it, but possibly it's etter than the other way. Both Casado and Rivera are visibly uncomfortable when asked about Vox and refuse to say that it's a far-right party.

The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo predicts an even better result for Vox

()

There is a certain climate of weariness and debasementof political debate that favours anti-political speech. This week there was a lamentable squabble in Congress between ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián (a cartoonish ruffianesque provocateur, tweeter politician) and the Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell (smart and vocal anti-separatist born in Catalonia). Rufián was expelled from the the plenary room by Speaker Ana Pastor. On the other hand, it's becoming usual that Catalan nationalists and the parties of the Spanish Right exchange insults. PP and Cs spokepersons use to say that the Catalan separatists are "golpistas" ("coup plotters"); ERC spokepersons reply that PP and Cs are "fascist". Rufián called "fascist" to Borrell as well. Borrell replied that Rufián pours dung and sawdust because he doesn't know how to do anything else. Speaker Ana Pastor, whp is from PP, requested that all mentions to "fascists" and "coup plotters" were erased from session records. The environment sucks these days.  

In other news Pedro Sánchez announced a deal on Gibraltar and unblocks the Brexit summit

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/24/inenglish/1543070447_943022.html

Quote
“The first thing to say is that we have achieved a joint declaration from the European Council and the European Commission that rules out Article 184 being applied to territorial issues,” he told reporters, in reference to the part of the UK’s draft Withdrawal Agreement that Spain objected to, given that it did not specifically exclude Gibraltar from talks on the future relationship between Great Britain and the EU. Spain wants to discuss the future of the British Overseas Territory – over which it holds a historic claim – on a bilateral basis and completely separate from the future EU-UK talks.

“Secondly, the British government has recognized this issue in writing,” he continued, speaking from La Moncloa prime ministerial palace. “And thirdly, the European Council and the European Commission have strengthened Spain’s position ahead of future negotiations.

“We defend national interests,” he added, explaining that the Spanish government had a responsibility to defend the situation of the inhabitants of neighboring Campo de Gibraltar, which is on Spanish soil (...)

Gibraltar is relevant for the Andalusian campaign for obvious geographical reasons. The Spanish government approved recently an investment plan for the Campo de Gibraltar, located around the Rock in Cádiz province. There is a sharp contrast between the richness of the Rock ( tax haven and smugglers' nest) and the Campo de Gibraltar, a region that suffers high unemployment and the increasing activities of drug trafficking cartels.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 26, 2018, 03:41:12 AM
Celeste-Tel (eldiario.es) and NC Report (La Razón) are more 'conservative' in their predictions for the upcoming Andalusian election (December 2), downplaying the growth of Cs and the 'Vox effect'. Both pollsters predict similar results, with PP and Vox slightly higher in the case of NC Report. That's not strange given that their chief pollsters have a a personal link. According to Celeste-Tel, the result would be:

() (https://ibb.co/m0zHxh8)

According to Narciso Michavila, who is the chief pollster of GAD3, 70% of Vox voters are male. Also, there is a higher percentage of voters switching between Cs and Vox than voters switching btween PP and Vox. Michavila explains that Cs voters are placed more to the centre but they are also more prone to change to a new party. There are three variables in this campaign, says the pollster: a) the left/right axis, b) the crisis of Catalonia (the right campaigning against the "coup plotters" and their accomplices Pedro Sánchez and the evil populists), and c) the feminist vindication. Michavila says that some men are looking to Vox as a reaction to the feminist wave, to the point that 10% of Vox voters comes from the left and is overwhelmingly male. Vox advocates the supression of the Gender Violence Law passed during the years of Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE). The law is attacked by male chauvinists arguing that it goes against men.

La Vanguardia show us the correlation between vote and unemployment with maps. Historically municipalities with higher unemployment rates lean to the left (PSOE and IU to a lesser extent) and the municipalities with lower unemployment rates to the right (PP). The maps of the 2015 elections suggest that there is high a correlation between unemployment rate and vote for Podemos.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181125/453103700535/elecciones-andalucia-influencia-paro-comportamiento-electoral.html

Eldiario.es tells that PSOE is the winning force in more than a half of the Andalusian municipalities since the first regional election held in 1982. These municipalities are predominantly rural and small sized, located in the provinces of Seville, Jaén and Huelva. PSOE hegemony ith maps:

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/hegemonia-PSOE-Andalucia-invicto-municipios_0_838166410.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 26, 2018, 11:23:12 AM
The final polling average before the election seems like it will end up mostly like this

PSOE: 35%
PP: 23%
AA: 20%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 4%

Seems like Cs has collapsed in the final stretch. Maybe they were being overpolled like in 2015? PP seems like it will go down a lot compared to 2015 but still come in 2nd, though there's a non negligible (but small) chance that AA comes in 2nd.

As for Vox, it's a tossup if they'll enter or not. In any case, 4% in Andalucia would mean something like 4.5% nationally at the very least, so assuming they don't collapse spectacularly after failing to enter (kind of like the 2014 EU election for them I guess) they will certainly get around 2 MEPs next year and UPyD-like numbers in the general election (4.5-5%; 4-5 seats)

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

Cs' vote has always been very unstable so it's no wonder former Cs voters are now defecting to Vox (particularly if they initially left PP based on the Catalonia issue, when Cs got a massive bump). The more interesting thing is that it's taking a non insignificant amount of left wing voters. I imagine most of those are populist Podemos voters. However on the long run it might be a greater threat to PSOE, by taking away from their base in rural Andalucia/Extramadura or the Asturias/Leon former coal fields (taken to the extreme, Asturias becomes Spain's West Virginia)

The remaining maps aren't very surprising, Andalucia is quite polarized on economic class, so it's no wonder that poorer, more unemployed areas lean left while more economically developed areas lean right.

In particular, I think the few urban municipalities that have always voted PSOE (like Dos Hermanas or Alcalá de Guadaira, just south of Sevilla) are also some of the poorest municipalities not just in Andalucia, but in all of Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on November 26, 2018, 06:13:57 PM
Also related to the Andalusian election, here's an interesting Nate Silver-like statistical analysis of polls, with the seat chances of each party:

()

And here it is by coalition:

()

http://1datomas.com/interactivos/elecciones-andaluzas-2d/

They also have a different polling average

PSOE: 33%
PP: 22%
AA: 20%
Cs: 17%
Vox: 4%
Others: 4%

Another simulation by Kiko Llaneras seems a bit more benevolent for the right, giving PP+Cs roughly a 5% of getting a majority (which I imagine could increase very slighly with Vox)

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/23/actualidad/1542972340_447656.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 26, 2018, 10:05:23 PM
Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

There is a difference between reforming specific elements of a piece of legislation and repealing a law. The repeal of the legislation against gender based violence implies the rejection of its goals and philosophy. The aim of this law is to protect women from the violence that some men use against them. The rationale is that there exists a specific type of violence against women that is related to their historical discrimination and inferior position in society. Despite men and women are equal before the law nowadays, centuries of discrimination have ingrained machista attitudes and a sense of superiority in some men that sometimes are cause of violence. Male chauvinists use to argue this law discriminates men and deny the very existence of gender based violence, despite the fact that women are actually abused and killed. This law has elements of positive discrimination that may be controversial for some, but they are motivated by this historical discrimination and the need to protect women against this type of violence. I don't believe this law violates the presumption of innocence (would it be constitutional?).

The protection of women against gender based violence is one of the few issues where the different political forces found consensus. It may seem surprising, given that confrontation often dominates Spanish politics. This consensus allowed to pass a pioneering law for tackling gender violence from all perspectives. Also, it reflects the feelings and the alarm of the Spanish society with regards to the phenomenon of gender based violence. Despite possible defects or elements  subject to reform (i.e the protection of minor children or the issue with same sex couples), being the first country in Europe to pass a law like this is a matter of pride.

During the 2015 campaign Ciudadanos (by then a non-parliamentary force) advocated the repeal of the law based on a false idea of equality. Oranges were bashed for good reasons and had to rectify. Toni Cantó (Cs deputy, formerly UPyD) tweeted once that a majority of gender violence allegations is false and later had to apologize for believing false information posted on internet. One of the usual strategies of the male activists on the internet is overstating the significance of false allegations without empirical evidence, but they are in fact statistically irrelevant. I have read certain columnists claiming that men in Spain suffer a "silent Holocaust" because of this law, which is hyperbolic, false and nonsensical. Male chauvinism exists and Vox embraces it, as it embraces jingoism, xenophobia and other reactionary causes. I guess they are things a far-right party stands for.
Quote
Cs' vote has always been very unstable so it's no wonder former Cs voters are now defecting to Vox (particularly if they initially left PP based on the Catalonia issue, when Cs got a massive bump). The more interesting thing is that it's taking a non insignificant amount of left wing voters. I imagine most of those are populist Podemos voters. However on the long run it might be a greater threat to PSOE, by taking away from their base in rural Andalucia/Extramadura or the Asturias/Leon former coal fields (taken to the extreme, Asturias becomes Spain's West Virginia)

I agree on the first part: Cs voters tend to be volatile. I disagree on the rest. <to begin with, what is a "populist voter"? I assume that many individuals lack solid ideological convictions, but I suspect that they are not only Podemos and Cs voters. According to Michavila, 10% of Vox voters would come from the left and that's worth noting. However it's not enough to build a theory in the style of "the bulk of the Front National voters were communist supporters". Vox catches primarily in the PP and Cs fishing grounds.

Quote
The remaining maps aren't very surprising, Andalucia is quite polarized on economic class, so it's no wonder that poorer, more unemployed areas lean left while more economically developed areas lean right.

In particular, I think the few urban municipalities that have always voted PSOE (like Dos Hermanas or Alcalá de Guadaira, just south of Sevilla) are also some of the poorest municipalities not just in Andalucia, but in all of Spain.
P

The maps don't need to be surprising. They must be illustrative and useful, especially for outsiders and non-experts.

EDIT: The variables in the Andalusian campaign are 4 (ideology, Catalan crisis, immigration and feminism) and not 3.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 29, 2018, 05:55:07 AM
Final prediction of Kiko Llaneras (aka the Spanish Nate Silver) for El País based on average polling.

Vote share: PSOE 32.8%, PP 21.4%, AA 19.5%, Cs 18%, VOX 4.7%

()

Probability of winning a majority:

PSOE alone 1%, PSOE+AA 96%, PSOE+Cs 91%, PP+Cs 3% (with VOX 4%)

Seats by province (deep blue: safe, light blue: likely, yellow: at stake)
()

Contest for the second place:  PP 70%, AA 17%, Cs 11%

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543408692_128203.html




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 29, 2018, 06:31:05 AM
Politico: "Spanish Right eyes deep south"
https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-election-ciudadanos-spanish-right-eyes-deep-south/

Quote
This election, the first since the Socialists took power in Madrid in June, kicks off a flurry of ballots that could transform Spain’s political landscape. In May there are further regional ballots as well as the European Parliament election, and there is also the possibility of an early general election in 2019.

“This Andalusian election is going to be extremely important, not just for the more than 8 million people there, but because of the influence it will have on the overall Spanish electoral cycle,” said sociologist Pablo Simón, of Carlos III University.

As for Ciudadanos, the Andalusia vote will give a clearer idea of whether it is poised to deliver, finally, on its promise as a national electoral force, or whether it will remain the bridesmaid of Spanish politics.

The article linked above is focused on Ciudadanos. Inés Arrimadas, the Cs leader in Catalonia, was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and is very popular there. While campaigning in the Triana, the neighbourhood in Seville where Susana Díaz is from, people greets Arrimadas calling her "heroine". She overshadows completely candidate Juan Marín, who is walking by her side. Inés Arrimadas could be a strong candidate in a general election, if it were not for for the Albert Rivera's uncontested leadership in Cs. Certainly I would prefer her as leader, but I'd never vote for Cs anyway.

()

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543417538_880017.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 29, 2018, 08:15:13 AM
Teresa Rodríguez, the candidate of Ahora Andalucía (AA), rules out a coalition government with the PSOE. The leader of Podemos in Andalusia reproached Susana Díaz for "putting VOX into the parliament" by including the far-right party in her campaign speeches. Andalusian premier is using VOX to attack PP and Cs, because blues and oranges don't rule out cooperation with the "misogynist" and "xenophobic" party. Teresa Rodríguez says that taking for granted that VOX will enter in parliament is an irresponsibility. She considers that the rise of VOX is the consequence of the fragmentation of the right, not due to the support of new voters.

Teresa Rodríguez makes an interesting description of susanismo* in an interview:

"It's an accommodated second generation PSOE which has not known either union struggle or Francoism, detached from working class, without ideology, which has opened wide the doors to the Right and speaks a language that we are unable to understand. Susanismo is incompatible with socialism (...)

The susanismo is a professionalized and urban-based PSOE that systematically blurs the barriers between government, party and administration."

Teresa Rodríguez says that AA won't permit a right-wing government in any case, but any cooperation with the PSOE will have to be based on programmatic agreements (social policies, education and employment) and it's only possible if socialists turn to the left.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/27/actualidad/1543321149_180017.html

Teresa Rodríguez is from Rota, a town in Cádiz province that hosts an US Naval Station (Navy and Marine Corps). Her partner is José María González (aka Kichi), the Podemos mayor of Cádiz. Teresa Rodríguez ran for Cádiz in 2015 but this time is running for Málaga, It's a strategic decision motivated by the need to strengthen the coalition in that province and Eastern Andalusia. Málaga is a hot contest with PP leader Juan Manuel Moreno running there, as well as the former coach of the Spanish basketball team Javier Imbroda runs for Cs. The IU leader in Andalusia Antonio Maíllo tops the AA list in Seville. There is a good chemistry between Teresa Rodríguez and him, according to the campaign reports.

()

*Susana Díaz is sometimes compared by rivals and detractors to Eva Perón and her governing style deemed as 'Peronist'.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 30, 2018, 07:01:28 AM
Conservative leader Pablo Casado defends his strategy of not attacking Vox arguing that it'd be attacking former PP voters. Casado says that they must show understanding to those voters switching to Vox because they don't feel represented by PP. Casado states that he aspires to lead the Spanish centre-right and aims to bring together that space once voters give the different forces a majority. This point of view is not shared by everybody in his party, with voices inside PP fearing that the Casado turn to the right alienates centrist voters. Other voices remark the surprising influence of a non-parliamentary party in the PP campaign. The fact is that Casado, who represents the right wing of PP, is hardening his stances even more assuming part of the Vox discourse. This becomes evident in the Casado's anti-immigrant proclaims (he resembles Sarkozy in 2012) or in proposals such as the re-devolution of Healthcare, Education and Justice to the central government. VOX not only stands for the re-devolution of competences, since the far-right party advocates for the supression of regional autonomy in Spain: One Country, One Parliament.

The VOX candidate in the Andalusian election is judge Francisco Serrano. Serrano is a vocal opponent to the legislation against gender based violence, which he deems "ideologically motivated". He was disqualified for two years from his position in a Family Court convicted of prevarication, for having modified the visit arrangements of a minor child in order he could go with his father to a Holy Week procession dressed as a Nazarene without asking the mother's permission. Serrano was reinstated as the two years expired, but he hasn't served as a judge again. The Vox candidate has been practising as a lawyer instead, representing fathers and associations and struggling against "radical feminism". Serrano is a "negationist judge" known by his controversial decisions on gender based violence and child custody , says El País.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 01, 2018, 12:29:11 AM
I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2018, 04:02:59 AM
I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

VOX won't reach 10% , but it could get 5% or 6%  and that's too much. Certainly VOX is en route for winning seats in Strasbourg (sure) and in the Spanish Congress (very likely). There are some factors that could limit the VOX's growth, such as the lack of a charisnatic leader or its neoliberal stance in economic policy (here's a difference with Le Pen and Salvini). The demographic profile of its voters is apparently very specific (male, upper middle class, very right wing). I don't know if VOX has potential to break through its limits. The VOX rise has something to do with the fragmentation of the right and the decadence of the PP, the hegemonic party in that space until now. With Casado as PP leader, VOX people will be happy and satisfied.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2018, 05:07:08 AM
BREAKING: Former ANC leader Jordi Sánchez and former member of the Catalan government Jordi Turull announce they go on hunger strike. Both Catalan politicians are currently in prison awaiting trial.

In other news this week protests against budget cuts intensified in Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/29/inenglish/1543495868_329385.html

Quote
Students and workers from across the public service sector marched in Barcelona on Thursday to demand a reversal of budget cuts and improved working conditions to reflect the economic upturn in the wake of a long economic crisis (...)

The Guardian: "Spanish prime minister facing first test as Andalusia goes to polls"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/30/spanish-prime-minister-facing-tough-test-as-andalucia-goes-to-polls

Quote
The man who has been mayor of Dos Hermanas for the past 35 years offers two words when asked to explain the Spanish socialist party’s enduring success in Andalucía: biological memory.

“Andalucíans are very aware of their origins,” says Francisco Toscano. “This used to be a very class-conscious society in all the wrong ways. Like some other parts of Spain – such as Extremadura – we were always at the back of the queue when it came to economic development.” (...)


Politico: " 5 things to watch in Andalusia's election"

https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-eleciones-5-things-to-watch-in-election/

Quote
1. Rise of the far right

2. Wider impact of Vox

3. The Catalan factor

4. Victory without governability?

5. Fight on the right


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 01, 2018, 07:18:40 AM
My prediction for tomorrow:

30.2% PSOE (-5.2%)
19.5% PP (-7.2%)
19.3% Forward Andalusia (-2.5%)
18.7% C's (+9.4%)
  7.9% VOX (+7.4%)
  1.6% PACMA (+0.8%)
  2.8% Others (-2.7%)

Turnout: 68.6% (+6.3%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2018, 07:31:21 AM
My prediction would be similar to the one I posted yesterday. I'm afraid I'm somewhat conservative on this subject

PSOE 32%, PP 21%, AA 19%, Cs 18%, VOX 5%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 01, 2018, 09:12:30 AM
I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

There's no way Vox reaches double digits in Andalucia. 8% is their ceiling for now and that's generous. They are indeed rising fast and will almost certainly get national and EU presence.

In fact for the 2019 regional elections I could see them getting seats in all regions except Castille-La Mancha (extremely high threshold) and the Canary Islands (4% threshold now, but Vox is a horrible fit for the islands)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 01, 2018, 09:15:13 AM
Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

I think Vox would achieve 7-10% nationally at this time


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 01, 2018, 09:16:40 AM
My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 01, 2018, 09:22:33 AM
My Prediction
Psoe:32%
PP:20%
AA:18%
Cs:17%
Vox:8%
Other:5%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2018, 09:34:23 AM
Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

Local police says 2000 and some people from the Madrid PP attended. They got 10000 people in a recent act in Madrid though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 01, 2018, 09:44:05 AM
My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 01, 2018, 09:51:15 AM
My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania

Everything is due to OKUPA Sanchez

Actually, there were polls with Rajoy as PM giving Vox 1 seat. Not as many of course, but the first poll with Vox getting seats happened right after the Catalonia UDI in November 2018 (Sociométrica-El Español). Sánchez becoming PM might have helped as well, but I'd certainly pick Catalonia as the spark that lit the fire

Plus, that theory actually doesn't make much sense. If you are a conservative angry at Sánchez, doesn't it make more sense to vote tactically for PP or Cs?

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2018, 12:05:53 PM

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 01, 2018, 12:15:49 PM
Not very good at predictions, but here goes:

31.8% PSOE-A
21.7% PP-A
19.5% AA
18.0% C's
  4.6% Vox
  1.2% PACMA
  0.6% AxSí
  2.6% Others

66.0% Turnout


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 01, 2018, 12:38:40 PM

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.


It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2018, 02:38:17 PM

Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too

I am Mexican American and follow the news of the case. My Mexican friends say that the migrants deliberately used the children as human shields and the general atmosphere is one of total rejection of the caravan.

You can write your opinions about Spanish politics even if you are Mexican American. Furthermore, Mexican Americans are specially welcomed if they want to discuss Spanish politics. In case you are Spaniard, you lied in the other thread discussing the San Diego-Tijuana border. Why? There's no need to lie.


It may seem crazy, but I did not lie haha, my father is American, my mother was Spanish and I was born in Mexico. Technically, both at the same time, right? I'm currently writing from Mexico while I watch Amlo take over.

Then I assume that you have dual citizenship (US- Spanish), so you can vote. In that case it's alright. I had doubts when I read that post and I think they were reasonable.  

AMLO takes over by winning the popular vote. It's not a small thing

https://www.google.es/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/amlo-will-be-inaugurated-as-mexicos-president-vowing-to-transform-the-country/2018/11/30/d3014f4c-f267-11e8-99c2-cfca6fcf610c_story.html

Curious fact: AMLO invited the premier of Cantabria Miguel Ángel Revilla to his ranch and to attend his takeover. Both are friends since Revilla invited AMLO to visit the Spanish northern region, where the Mexican president has family roots

https://m.eldiario.es/norte/cantabria/politica/Revilla-acompana-Lopez-Obrador-posesion_0_840965975.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2018, 01:56:28 AM
"Spain signs landmark agreements with UK over Gibraltar"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/30/inenglish/1543581262_378313.html

Quote
Spain and the United Kingdom have signed the most important bilateral agreement over Gibraltar in more than a decade. On Thursday, the governments of both countries officially signed four Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) on the future of Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory in the south of the Iberian peninsula, once the UK leaves the European Union, a process known as Brexit.

The agreements are aimed at reducing inequality between the Rock and Campo de Gibraltar, the neighboring Spanish region in Andalusia where high unemployment and drug trafficking are major problems.

The lack of public debate on immigration amplifies the message of VOX and Pablo Cased, complain experts and NGOs. Vox leaders repeat in campaign acts that immigrants are "an invasion that came to replace us". This message presenting immigration as a threat to "western values" and linking arrivals by sea with rise in delinquency is the only message that has been sent during the campaign, since the other parties barely said anything about this topic.

All parliamentary parties have proposals on immigration in their platforms, mainly on the topic of unaccompanied minors because it falls within the competences of regional government. The Cs platform, however, lacks of specific proposals and only has a paragraph with generic mentions to the migrant's drama. This has been a record-breaking year in what regards arrivals by sea.

The Andalusian government led by Susana Díaz has been particularly contentious on the issue of unaccompanied minors. As a result of its tenacity, the Spanish government issued a decree distributing 40 million of euros between the regions. Andalusia reclaimed as well solidarity from other regions in the distribution of minors. However, these demands disappeared in campaign in order to avoid criticism on the regional government's management.

The campaign of Ahora Andalucía has been introducing the coalition's proposals on immigration as the sad news of people disappeared at the Sea of Alboran came in. Teresa Rodríguez said in Almería that more resources must be devoted to fight the people traffickers, in order to not make their work easy. Rodríguez mentioned the case of a pregnant woman drowned in the sea three times during the campaign. 

PP candidate Juanma Moreno stands for an "orderly immigration", emphasizing that it's important to avoid to act with frivolity "as Pedro Sánchez did with the complicity of Susana Díaz". The tone of the Moreno's discourse is more moderate than the proclaims of national leader Pablo Casado, who has launched a parallel campaign overshadowing the Andalusian candidate.

Cs has said nothing on the topic, even avoiding to attend debates promoted by associations and NGOs. Finally the spokesperson of a Human Rights association says that Almeria is a province that would not have the wealth it possess without immigrants,  so going there with xenophobic messages is "lamentable"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543434990_381282.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 01:57:59 AM
Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2018, 02:20:40 AM
Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?


Provisional results can be found at the regional government's site. Media outlets (El País, El Mundo, whatever) will share the same results in real time. I'll post some links this evening, unless someone posts before me.

Polls close at 20:00 CET.

I think this year there won't be exit polls in Andalusia, since the regional broadcaster Canal Sur is not going to release one this time. Anyway vote counts in Spain are quite fast, so we will go to bed knowing the results.




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 03:43:19 AM
Thanks.

It seems this is the official results page:

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Inicio

"Avances de participación" means turnout. Turnout reports will come at 2pm and 6pm.

"Resultados provisionales" means preliminary results.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: crals on December 02, 2018, 06:52:41 AM
Actually I am an angry conservative with Sanchez hahaha and I will definitely vote for Vox, I do not currently live in Spain but I think the radicalism of the left causes us to do so too
What is so radical about Sánchez?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 08:15:13 AM
30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 08:16:10 AM
Turnout, until now, is 4% lower compared with 2015:

29.94% 2018 2pm
33.94% 2015 2pm


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 08:24:00 AM
30% turnout in Andalucia at 14:00. This is down from 34% turnout in 2015. In theory low turnout should help PP and especially PSOE, to the detriment of AA and Cs.

Yeah, turnout is especially lower in two PSOE bastions, Sevilla and Jaén. In both places, turnout is 6% lower compared with 2015. We'll see if the low turnout trend is confirmed at 6pm.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on December 02, 2018, 09:12:36 AM
Results can't be released until 10:15 pm due to issues with some polling stations

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MINUTO-Elecciones-andaluzas_13_841795814_22260.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 09:35:52 AM
Worth noting that while we won't get a proper exit poll, we will get a regular poll done during the final few days, done by GAD3 for ABC.

This is similar to the situation in the 2017 Catalan election, where there was no proper exit poll, but there was a regular poll done by La Vanguardia.

Also, worth noting that the lower turnout seems concentrated in rural areas, which means that it's PSOE voters the ones that aren't going out to vote. According to some that may be because olives are being picked up around this time of year, which means rural PSOE voters are at work now. It might also mean that the PSOE machines will get them to vote later.

However, if this stays the same at the next turnout reports, then PSOE should start being worried. They won't lose government anyways but it's certainly a bad sign.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 12:07:46 PM
Turnout also down at 18:00, as 46.5% had cast a ballot. In 2015, at the same time, it was 51.4%

The final turnout figure will likely be something between 58-61%.

By provinces, turnout is down in all 8 provinces, but is higher in PP friendly ones than in PSOE provinces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 01:28:06 PM
Ugh ... only 56% will vote.

That is disappointing. I thought turnout would increase by quite a bit.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 01:29:26 PM
According to El Mundo, both PSOE and PP, with the current turnout figures and on the ground reports, assume that Vox will get 7 or 8 seats in the Andalusian Parliament.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 01:36:05 PM
Also, for anyone interested, live stream of Canal Sur election coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifh1-NazLJ8


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 02:04:51 PM
GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:

()

Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 02:07:41 PM
Wow, Vox above even IU 2015 numbers!

I always thought their ceiling would be becoming "Right wing IU". I guess not, 10% in Andalucia means around 11-12% nationally (extrapolating from their EU result in 2014, so not 100% accurate), almost what Cs currently has


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 02:10:32 PM
GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:

()

Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

If this were only the actual results ... it would be close to my prediction.

But the actual results will likely look different.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 02:12:07 PM
Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 02:21:04 PM
Honestly, after 40 years of PSOE-A governments I don't think Cs could refuse to prop up PP even if it is alonside Vox.

In any case I don't think they fully ruled it out


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 02:25:51 PM
Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2018, 02:30:25 PM
Wow .. nice numbers for VOX.  Hopefully PP + C + VOX > PSOE + AA.  Most likely not but if VOX is under polled ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2018, 02:32:59 PM
Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 02:35:26 PM
Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

According to El País, PP insiders say this is a completely new political scene and that Vox's surge opens new possibilities.

While, also according to El País, C's are saying caution, caution and they see as very difficult a sum between PP+C's and Vox.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 02:37:38 PM
Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.

Not always. In some places like Austria or the US, the far-right/Trump-GOP also does well in high-turnout elections.

And while Austria ÖVP-FPÖ 1.0 between 2000-2006 and Trump/GOP was/is indeed chaotic and creating conflict, the current ÖVP-FPÖ government 2.0 has learned a lot and is now one of the best-performing and most stable governments in Europe.

It's all a matter of how competent the far-right parties in charge of the government are and how much they are willing to work on solutions for the people who elected them ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 02:37:48 PM
More data from the GAD 3 poll. Results by provinces:

()

PSOE would win all 8 provinces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: bigic on December 02, 2018, 02:53:12 PM
L - left-of-centre parties PSOE, AA
R - right-of-centre parties PP, Cs, VOX
Huelva
L 6-7
R 4-5
Sevilla
L 10
R 8
Cadiz
L 8
R 7
Malaga
L 8
R 9
Cordoba
L 6-7
R 5-6
Jaen
L 5-6
R 5-6
Granada
L 6-7
R 6-7
Almeria
L 5
R 7

The most optimistic scenario for L:
L 58
R 51

The most optimistic scenario for R:
L 54
R 55 (1 seat majority)

Of course PSOE-Cs is also possible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 03:25:32 PM
PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 03:59:18 PM
82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 02, 2018, 04:00:40 PM
PSOE internal poll:

PSOE: 39-40 seats
PP: 25
C's: 20
AA: 18
Vox: 6-7



Lol Psoe is dead


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 02, 2018, 04:02:19 PM
82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

It's happening!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2018, 04:04:01 PM
82.8% in:

28.7% PSOE, 33 seats
20.5% PP, 26
17.9% C's, 21
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12
  1.9% PACMA

YES !!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 02, 2018, 04:04:45 PM
Did the Vox break through with working class voters?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Skye on December 02, 2018, 04:04:50 PM
Wow VOX got double digits.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 04:09:09 PM
88.8% in:

28.5% PSOE, 34 seats
20.6% PP, 26
18.0% C's, 20
16.2% AA, 17
10.8% Vox, 12

49.4% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.7% PSOE+AA, 51


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2018, 04:11:48 PM
PSOE vote share going up slightly as time goes on.  Right now PSOE+C short of majority.  Maybe at the end PSOE+C might get to majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2018, 04:17:23 PM
93.43% in:

28.29% PSOE, 33 seats
20.66% PP, 26
18.12% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.88% Vox, 12

49.66% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.45% PSOE+AA, 51


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 04:32:27 PM
Woah, huge rightwing majority (59 to 50 seats) in this former leftwing stronghold ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2018, 04:37:31 PM
97.64% in:

28.06% PSOE, 33 seats
20.74% PP, 26
18.21% C's, 21
16.16% AA, 17
10.94% Vox, 12

49.89% PP+C's+VOX, 58 seats
44.22% PSOE+AA, 51

PP+C's+VOX vote share closing in on 50%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 02, 2018, 04:39:38 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 04:48:48 PM
Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on December 02, 2018, 04:50:30 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Does the UK snap election count?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 04:53:51 PM
Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

Well, I'd have to look at municipality data, but looking at the poorest and richest areas of Seville  they certainly got a lot of votes but still better on richer areas:

Seville

Cerro Amate (poorest): 7.7%
Casco Antiguo (richest): 15.6%
Overall: 12.4%



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 02, 2018, 04:54:14 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Does the UK snap election count?

I mean, it was a lot better than it could have been given that everyone three weeks out thought it would be an unmitigated disaster.

Even then, Labour lost that election and there is no sign that Labour will take over Parliament in the next election since they're behind a quite unpopular Tory government in polling atm.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 04:55:03 PM
Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

Maybe, maybe not. Worth noting that in El Ejido (a town in Almería with a lot of inmigrants and which saw the worst inmigrant riots in Spanish history in 2000) Vox is actually the largest party!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 02, 2018, 04:55:51 PM
Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

Yes, apparently VOX is rising more because of Anti-Catalonia and Feminism laws rather than anti-migrant policies.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Skye on December 02, 2018, 04:57:14 PM
I'm watching the stream of El País. These guys are seriously stunned due to the results. Reminds me of Trump's victory.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 02, 2018, 04:57:54 PM
With almost 100% in, the Right is now at 50% and has gained 13.5% compared with 2015 and maintain their 59-50 seat advantage ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 02, 2018, 04:58:36 PM


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 02, 2018, 04:59:37 PM
Did the Vox break through with working class voters?

Well, I'd have to look at municipality data, but looking at the poorest and richest areas of Seville  they certainly got a lot of votes but still better on richer areas:

Seville

Cerro Amate (poorest): 7.7%
Casco Antiguo (richest): 15.6%
Overall: 12.4%

Rich people being more fascist than poor people? Why, I am absolutely stunned! I am sure this isn't a pattern we've seen throughout basically every election worldwide this decade. /s


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 04:59:51 PM
I'm watching the stream of El País. These guys are seriously stunned due to the results. Reminds me of Trump's victory.

For what is worth, the El País poll tracker gave PP+Cs+Vox a 4% chance of a majority and a hard ceiling of 6 seats for Vox (everything beyond that at 0.1% chance)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2018, 05:04:07 PM
Hi people. I disappeared because I'm sick. Literally: influenza. I feel depressed by the result, obviusly. There will be a deluge of analyses and interpretations, probably contradictory. Possibly there's a sum of causes behind this. For instance, immigration weighs in Almería,  but the situation in Catalonia possibly weighs more elsewhere (or not). General dissatisfaction, the impact of the crisis, breeding ground for anti-politics. Generalities.Tender Branson was right with the prediction,  but there's no easy explanation. Extrapolating to a general election, I fear a right wing nationslist government in Spain. Vox is extreme, but PP and Cs have a raducal message too, particularly in the Catalan question. A right wing government could eventually inflate separatism and led to the secession of Catalonia and the collapse of Spain. Reactionary solutions never improved the health of the nations. Vox broke out its limits, that's obvious.

Sorry if this sounds catastrophist. I'm sick.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 05:04:35 PM
Also something interesting to note: PACMA got almost 2% of the vote. If this holds until May 2019 they might be able to get 1 MEP


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 02, 2018, 05:10:02 PM
Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

No but it's absurd to focus only on Vox when the C's surged to the same degree but in a more broad-based manner. Clearly migration played an important role in this election but the C's were a more attractive vehicle for those annoyed by the government. Is this a hangover from the Catalonian situation? I have no idea but that seems possible. Easy to forget that this occurred recently...

Worth noting that turnout was very anemic and that there was a turnout differential between agricultural communities and more affluent urban/suburban communities. This almost certainly helped parties of the right across the board, even if it only explains a small, yet significant, part of the swing. Cold comfort for PSOE but no one should look at these results and think that they're finished.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: JonHawk on December 02, 2018, 05:17:08 PM
Fantastic result for VOX!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on December 02, 2018, 05:17:19 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 02, 2018, 05:20:27 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 05:32:34 PM
Yeah, it seems PSOE+Cs is out of the question even if it magically added up (it doesn't currently, short by 1 seat).

In any case if this happens at the national level I guess it's time to pack my bags and move to Portugal :P /s


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 02, 2018, 05:35:33 PM
Congrts centrists! You made the far*right vote again with your terrible candidates (Diaz, here).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 06:00:11 PM
Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 02, 2018, 06:04:57 PM
In a way it was always strange that Spain didn't have a successful RRWP. I guess PP's image was long strong enough among really right-wing people for them to take PP's actual policies for granted, but the discrepancy has been there for a long time and in addition to the economic crisis (which seems to help the far-left much more than the far-right in general) and the Catalonian issue, Spain has experienced mass immigration too. VOX's clear breakthrough in leftist Andalusia, of all places, is really significant: from this point onwards they are a serious national contender as well. Spain really needs it. Great evening.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2018, 06:13:28 PM
as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason.

Because it doesn't fit The Discourse.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 02, 2018, 06:15:27 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/d66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism. (Although I gather their electorate is more ideologically heterogeneous)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 02, 2018, 06:18:32 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.

The problem is that the Cs will almost certainly go with PP + Vox over PSOE + AA because centrists will always take the side of the right wing over the side of the left wing.

In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/D66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist right feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism.

That is true enough. I still would argue that centrists support right wingers before left wingers though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 02, 2018, 06:20:41 PM
Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2018, 06:29:17 PM
It's generally an error to get obsessed with labels. 'Centrist' has never been a particularly useful term, but has become entirely meaningless due to its use as a term of abuse by performative cretins in Rose Emoji Twitter. 'Left' and 'Right' in a Spanish context are mostly historical detritus - relics of the Civil War - rather than sure indications of policy preferences. If we're discussing the C's, then the thing to note is that no one who votes for them associates them with traditional political divisions; in fact that, along with the extremely hard line they take on the national question, is the whole point.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 06:35:53 PM
Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp

Yeah, only possibility I see (and it's essencially impossible) it's a "Borgen-like" scenario where Cs' candidate wins, propped up by PSOE and a Podemos abstention.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 06:43:05 PM
Rivera said C's would present its own candidate for the investiture vote, rather than to support the PP candidate. Is this just election night talk, or could C's refuse to support the PP candidate?

It would be destroyed electorally. They will ultimately support the pp

Yeah, only possibility I see (and it's essencially impossible) it's a "Borgen-like" scenario where Cs' candidate wins, propped up by PSOE and a Podemos abstention.
So it's basically election night talk. Rivera is trying to gain momentum from this, but, at the end of the day, he probably knows he has no option other than support Moreno.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2018, 07:00:39 PM
In all fairness, C's are not really comparable to the centrists they bear a superficial similarity with (your NEOS's/Radikale Venstres/En Marches/d66s etc). They have always had a vaguely populist feel to them, stemming from their origins in Castillian nationalism. (Although I gather their electorate is more ideologically heterogeneous)

I agree basically, but a couple of things. My opinion of Albert Rivera may be very biased and is completely unfavourable, but it's shared by many people in Spain (particularly in the left). I think that Albert Rivera is a fake liberal and a fake centrist. Possibly he is (or believes to be) centrist and liberal to some extent, but he is more right wing and populist than he proclaims. This trait surfaces with statements that resemble the founder of Falange José Antonio Primo de Rivera (likewise the eldest son of dictator Miguel Primo de Rivera). When Albert Rivera says "I don't see 'reds' or 'blues'', I only see Spaniards", he is repeating (intentionally or not) some ideas of Primo de Rivera about overcoming class struggle. I'm not implying that Albert Rivera is falangista (roughly equivalent to fascist). For instance, he is economically liberal and José Antonio advocated agrarian reform and the nationalization of the banking system. Also, there is a centralist tradition in the Spanish Liberalism that must be taken into account (Carlist Wars in XIX century ). He is a Spanish nationalist disguised of constitutionalist patriot, not as extreme as VOX but by no means a moderate  Albert Rivera was born in Catalonia and has roots in Andalusia, not in Castile. The denomination 'Castilian nationalism' is not correct. I know that Castile was the strongest part of the Hispanic Monarchy and we the Spanish speakers inherited the language originated in that region of Central Spain. Sometimes we say "Castilian language" insted of "Spanish". However, the Castilian regionalism or nationalism is represented by fringe parties like Tierra Comunera or the Castilian Party. They have nothing to do with Cs.

Allegedly Albert Rivera was a member of the PP youth before joining Cs. He has always denied that membership and claims that he voted the Catalan Socialists before joining the oranges. Rumours are insistent though.

El Mundo: "Albert Rivera was affiliated to PP three months before joiring Ciudadanos"

https://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2006/11/22/espana/1164203240.html


e


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 02, 2018, 07:03:24 PM
This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on December 02, 2018, 07:15:50 PM
This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

About the Gibraltar issue, it's just my opinion, but he made a fool of himself by acting all tough and "patriotic" and then caving in, like you said, at the 11th hour.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 02, 2018, 07:20:05 PM
This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

Sanchéz government was already, basically, on life-support even before the Andalusian election. He doesn't have the votes to pass his budget as the Catalan parties are refusing to support him because of the treatment of the jailed separatists. And this disastrous results for the PSOE, only makes things worse for him, as he will be pressured by both left and right, and it's unclear how he would act under pressure.

Well I always expected him to fail on the budget, and it was always a just question of whether the Spanish election would be before/concurrent/after the EU election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 02, 2018, 07:23:28 PM
El Confidencial has a handy map by municipality

https://www.elconfidencial.com/elecciones-andalucia/2018-12-02/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-andaluzas-del-2-d-municipio-a-municipio_1675162/

As you can see, since PSOE won the election technically, there's a lot of red still. Cs apparently performed well near Cádiz of all places. The right wins in the Mediterranean coast which is its stronghold. Vox wins only one municipality, but it's actually a decently large one (El Eijdo)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Vosem on December 02, 2018, 08:09:07 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 02, 2018, 08:58:50 PM
Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

This decade, certainly; France 2012, Italy 2013, Sweden 2014, and Portugal 2015 all come to mind as pretty clear-cut examples of victories for left-wing parties. I'm probably missing some, too.

Let's see here:

France 2012 - Negated by the complete and utter disaster that was 2017. Hollande ended up having atrocious approval ratings, which resulted in the PS getting only 6.4% of the vote in the first round of the Presidential race. This isn't mentioning the absolute destruction of the PS in 2015 regionals (where they lost 15 regions) and also the Parliamentary left losing 286 seats in the 2017 legislative elections.

Italy 2013 - Negated by the total catastrophe named the 2018 Italian election. The Italian left ended up losing 227 Chamber and 65 Senate seats, and there is absolutely no sign of recovery in national polling or in elections held since. The regional elections in Italy saw the PD lose all of the 3 regions they were defending except Lazio.

Sweden 2014 - Negated by 2018, where the Red-Greens alliance ended up losing seats. The Social Democrats had their worst performance in 107 years.

Portugal 2015 - This one I did actually forget, and unlike the other three, they haven't been negated by elections held afterwards.

The fact that we're having to look at elections that aren't even the most recent elections in their country to try to find any semblance of good elections for the European left says a lot about how awful a state it is in.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2018, 10:49:26 PM
This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 03, 2018, 06:51:16 AM
This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.


At this point that is quite impossible. An approach of Cs to the left would destroy it in the elections and would only favor Vox.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 03, 2018, 07:16:36 AM
So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 03, 2018, 07:28:09 AM
So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

Well, the largest achievement will probably be the no confidence vote itself as well as overseeing the rise of the far right.

But yeah, the Sánchez government looks like it will be the least consequencial government in Spanish history, only rivaled by Calvo-Sotelo's one (1981-1982). Depending on when he calls the elections, it might also be the shortest (Calvo-Sotelo lasted slightly under 2 years)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 03, 2018, 08:27:34 AM
So the desecration of Franco's grave and taking in hundreds of African immigrants on boats will remain the only two achievements of this government?

The final destination of the Franco's remains is very uncertain right now. I assume that you support leaving the dictator there, in a mausoleum built in homage to a mass murderer on the backs of slave labourers and surrounded by thousands of his victims. Would you support that Adolf Hitler was resting in a similar place in the vicinity of Berlin? Trust me, Valle de los Caídos is a sinister place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 03, 2018, 09:38:08 AM
This is the biggest middle finger the voters could have given the Sanchez govt, when you lose a safe state for the first time in forever, something is going wrong. Does this make the eventual election occur sooner (parties flee a loser) or later (rally around the center to prevent losses)?

Another dimension that I have not seen discussed yet is the UK angle. Voters might not have liked Sanchez's transparent postering, or they might not have like the 11th hour deal he agreed to with the UK to 'solve' the Gibraltar issue. It's the only thing resembling a October surprise that could have occurred.

I might be wrong, but I doubt that Gibraltar was important or decisive. The EU decision making is based largely on 11th hour agreements. I'd say more: 11th hour is the very definition of the European Union. As I see it, Pedro Sánchez played his trick in order to draw concesions. Not concesions on sovereignty, but concesions on bilateral relations and safeguards. I don't know the details, but I haven't read solvent opinions saying it's a bad agreement. The Spanish Right claims that it's bad and maybe right wing voters think the same thing. However the Spanush Right is negationist  by definition. Does the UK press say it was a bad arrangenent for Spain? I didn't check.

There are voices in favour of calling elections immediately and try to mobilize left-wing voters, shocked and scared by the rise of the far right. The situation of the governmnt is untenable. Pedro Sánchez has a remarkable ability to survive; but this shock is too hard.

On the other hand, Cs will have to explain many things to EU allies. Macron and Le Pen together? What' s that? It's not difficult to imagine increasing pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement, in case they have the numbers after a general election. With the VOX rise a red-irange majority is uncertain.

No easy way out.

Ciudadanos agreeing to govern with VOX would (should?) burn all bridges at the european level between ALDE and the other non-nationalist parties.
Are they gonna sell their soul to the devil given these consequences?

I guess the time has come for Ciudadanos to decide what it actually is.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 03, 2018, 11:21:06 AM
Are we really complaining about a fascist's grave being desecrated?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: bigic on December 03, 2018, 12:39:26 PM
As for Ciudadanos governing with Vox support, there are precedents in the EU. Although the parties are on the right relative to the other ALDE parties and I as a liberal don't endorse such deals.
NL: VVD-CDA + LPF (2002)/PVV (2010), although the deals were short-lived, lasting 1-2 years
DK: Venstre-Konservative(-LA)+DF (2001-2011, 2015-)
FI: Kesk-Kok-PerusS (2015-, although PerusS split not long after entering government, with anti-government faction staying in the party)
There may be a few more I'm not aware of...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 03, 2018, 01:34:36 PM
Yeah, it's not completely unprecedented at an EU scale but it's certainly not ideal. On the other hand there isn't really an alternative other than PSOE-Cs-AA or a grand coalition (PSOE-PP). Neither of which is happening.

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 03, 2018, 01:55:46 PM
Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

I don't think that's entirely true, but they've certainly voted for political paralysis and they'll get that no matter...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 03, 2018, 02:06:39 PM

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on December 03, 2018, 02:08:06 PM

Holy of Holies has, clearly, been rediscovered.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 03, 2018, 02:35:04 PM

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it. :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 03, 2018, 02:36:04 PM
Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements.

Yes, this is important. No blocs were on the ballot, the electorate clearly did not vote as if they existed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 03, 2018, 02:40:38 PM
Also, while his prediction was complete garbage (then again so were the polls), Kiko Llaneras and El País have published a detailed analysis of Vox's voting patterns. Some are more surprising than others but they are all interesting especially when compared to similar parties elsewhere in Europe:

The most important factor seems to be the % of non-EU inmigrants, with Vox performing extremely well where there is a lot of inmigration

()

There's also a weaker correlation between population density and Vox voters, where Vox performs better in densely populated areas (ie cities). This seems reversed compared to other right wing populists like say AfD.

()

There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"

()

However, there doesn't seem to be a correlation at all between unemployment and Vox votes

()

Finally, Vox certainly stole votes from the right and not the left. They performed better in areas where PP and Cs did well in 2015, not in areas where PSOE and Podemos/IU did well

()

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/03/actualidad/1543829876_200181.html

By the way, the official website for the election actually has precinct data available, a rarity for Spanish elections! So if anyone wants to try to mess around with it, the option is there I guess

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Mesas


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 03, 2018, 03:13:04 PM
So obviously this is bad for Sanchez, but isn't even in worse for his enemies within the party? What power do Diaz and her lieutenants have without their control of the south?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 03, 2018, 03:43:50 PM
Susana Diaz should not survive after this catastriphic election. Diaz says that she would have resigned in case of defeat, but claims that coming first with that poor result is a victory. Diaz controls the party in Andalusia, but I think the national executive cimmittee should take action. She is clearly a political corpse. As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

The VOX stuff is intetesting. I saw the GAD3 chief pollster Narciso Michavila in TV. He says that  VOX grew exponentially in the last week, in paralallel to a increasing demobilization in the left. Michavila was making the poll that was released when polling stations closed. Why is it still illegal to publish polls in the last week?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 03, 2018, 04:22:47 PM

Then again I think cordon sanitaires are undemocratic. Andalusians have voted for a PP-Cs-Vox government and that's what they should get.

The efectiveness of the cordon sanitaire is highly debatable, but in no way that policy is undemocratic. Andalusians voted the composition of the regional parliament, not for specific coalition agreements. In any case, Cs will have to show what is its true nature. Oranges claim that Macron is their reference. VOX leader Santiago Abascal is a great admirer of Marine Le Pen. The visions of Macron and Le Pen are antithetical. Where is Cs actually?

Oh, I'd actually be in favour of an alternative coalition if one was actually viable (say, PSOE+Cs with an overall majority).

But right now the only possibility would be either PSOE+Cs+AA (probably with Marín as premier) or a grand coalition, neither of which is happening. Though I'll admit I like the "Borgen-like" PSOE+Cs+AA with Marín as premier but I fear that would be worse for Spain in the long run, emboldening Vox and PP.

In any case it seems clear to me that they'll do a deal with Vox. I wonder what Manuel Valls has to say about it. :P

Yeah I would also prefer a govt without VOX here...but realistically C's would prefer having VOX on their side rather then any friend of Podemos. The only realistic other option I feel is PSOE+C's minority with AA effectively capitulating from the outside, but that won't last long and likely collapses after the expected 2019 election.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ON Progressive on December 03, 2018, 04:42:30 PM
There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"

()

To the shock of absolutely nobody that actually looks beyond the ridiculous media narrative about far right voters.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on December 03, 2018, 04:59:27 PM
 Hasn't the pattern of recent Austrian and German elections been that AFD and FPO have done well in poorer areas?  I do recall that Hofer defeated Van der Bellen in the blue collar electorate by something like 9 to 1, at least among men, that of course being a two way race.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 03, 2018, 05:56:59 PM
Hasn't the pattern of recent Austrian and German elections been that AFD and FPO have done well in poorer areas?  I do recall that Hofer defeated Van der Bellen in the blue collar electorate by something like 9 to 1, at least among men, that of course being a two way race.

Yes, but no two countries are the same: In Austria, you have a party with very well established roots in working class areas opposing a candidate that was literally the embodiment of the urban elite; whereas Vox is (at present) heavily associated with ultra conservative factions of the PP and the old Francoist elite.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lord Halifax on December 03, 2018, 08:59:50 PM
As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

I am not sure what you mean by that.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 04, 2018, 03:29:45 AM
As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

I am not sure what you mean by that.

Pretty much that they have to prove themselves and get reelected in 2019. There are now 6 PSOE premiers, 1 of them anti-Sánchez back on the day and only 1 pro-Sánchez:

Pro-Sánchez:
Francina Armengol (Balearic Islands)

Anti-Sánchez:
Guillermo Fernández Vara (Extremadura)
Emiliano García Page (Castille-La Mancha)
Ximo Puig (Valencia)
Javier Lambán (Aragón)
Javier Fernández (Asturias, retiring)

So other than Javier Fernández, who is retiring, most other high profile Sánchez challengers are up for reelection in 2019. Then again it's worth noting that all but Puig are in traditional PSOE stronholds at the regional level. My ratings for each one before and after the Andalusian election (and they might actually be generous!):

Balearic Islands: Tossup->Lean PP
Extremadura: Likely PSOE->Tossup
Castille-La Mancha: Lean PSOE->Lean PP
Asturias: Safe PSOE->Lean PSOE
Valencia: Lean PSOE->Tossup
Aragón: Lean PP->Likely PP

(reminder I had Andalucia as Safe PSOE so yeah)

Looks pretty ugly, but I don't think there will be a divide between Sánchez supporters and opponents. Díaz was unpopular because of that but I don't think this applies to the rest of the premiers


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 04, 2018, 08:21:33 AM
So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.


Hmmmm


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 04, 2018, 09:43:27 AM
Just remembered that in 2019, my fave Ada Colau will be sacrificed on the alter of nationalism.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2018, 10:00:36 AM
David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 04, 2018, 11:54:24 AM
David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.

I really doubt anyone knows who David Duke is

In Spain, yes. On this forum, no


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2018, 01:50:36 PM
Just remembered that in 2019, my fave Ada Colau will be sacrificed on the alter of nationalism.

Her chances of victory might improve in case that ERC and JxCAT/Crida run separate lists. The list of Manuel Valls on the opposite side could be a strong challenger too. Chances are slim, I'm afraid.

Manuela Carmena is doing a good job in Madrid and might have better chances to win reelection than Ada Colau in Barcelona.  However, the Podemos leadership is undermining that possibility. Given that Manuela Carmena is aged 74 and could retire before the end of term, Pablo Iglesias wants to pick her sucessor (Julio Rodríguez,  retired general and former JEMAD*) and place loyals in electable positions. The councilors from Podemos are appreciated by Carmena, but they feared to be displaced from electable positions by the party.  So they decided not to participate in the Podemos primaries and run as independents in the Carmena list. The councilors have been expelled from Podemos, including the spokeswoman of the local government Rita Maestre. Iñigo Etrrejón,  who is going the candidate for the Madrid region, remains in silence but probably is not very pleased. The chances of Errejon are linked to Carmena.

*Commander in Chief of the Army during the second term of Zapatero and close collaborator of the deceased Carme Chacon, by then minister of Defence (first woman in the post)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 04, 2018, 04:17:07 PM
Actually, I don't think Carmena nor Colau have a high chance of being reelected. In fact I'd actually argue Colau is more of a favourite than Carmena because of Barcelona being a lot more friendly than Madrid and the more fractured council which means she might have an easy time emerging as a "consensus candidate" as she can do deals with pretty much everyone. (something like 25% for Carmena and 35% for Colau)

IMO it will depend a lot on how well they can isolate themselves from national tendencies, as Carmena is a popular mayor in hostile territory while Colau is an unpopular mayor in friendly territory.

As of now I do think Cs will take Madrid while ERC will take Barcelona (though this one is a bit less clear to me)

In any case of the high profile Podemos mayors I'd say only Kichi in Cádiz is favoured. Maybe the 2 ones in Galicia (A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela) though those are less known. Finally Zamora is a big question mark as it's rural enough (63k people) that personally knowing the mayor does a lot and local issues will be more prominent.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2018, 05:14:01 PM
Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: seb_pard on December 04, 2018, 06:33:25 PM
Horrible results, although the demise of the socialists was totally expected. The campaign was simply horrible and they deserved it because they brought VOX to the campaign, although the media has a strong responsibility. They started to talk about VOX for months as if the party had a strong poll %, despite the party was polling around the same percentage as PACMA. They created a monster.

What I didn't expect was Adelante Andalucia's results, there are no words to describe that result. I don't think that could bring more friction between Rodriguez and Iglesias, but could bring a war in Izquierda Unida. I think the organization's old guard never liked these confluencias (too much power for Iglesias?) and they probably didn't participate enough in the campaign and will start to campaign against these types of organizations.

About the effect in Catalunya, is a very difficult situation for the soberanists, because this enforce the message that Spain is unfixable, but right now If I were a soberanist leader (and this includes the basques parties and Compromis) I would be terrified of early elections and would try to work with Pedro Sanchez. Strong Vox and Ciudadanos with a PP ruled by its right-wing faction could be terrible for the autonomies.

On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).





Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2018, 08:04:17 PM


On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).

The working class in El Ejido are immigrant labourers (both legal and illegal) employed in the extensive greenhouses that dominate the landscape. They are not unionized workers, obviously. Immigrants are about 30% of the population and come mainly from Morocco, Sub Saharan Africa and Romania. There is something about the mentality of the farmers transformed into entrepeneurs that says nothing good about them. The same farmers that employ immigrant workforce have a negative opinion of them and many voted for VOX, according to media reports. There is a big hypocrisy in this that is really disgusting. Horrible,  yes.

It's difficult to understand why the PSOE's establishment liked Dusana Diaz so much. As some journalist wrote, she never won a battle in open field. Pablo Casado is  at least as responsible as Diaz or even more, because he has mimicked and amplified the Vox's message. Cs avoided to confront its alleged liberalism (fake, in my opinion) to the counterparts of Le Pen. Anyway there are underlying causes such as the subdued indignation caused by the unilateral attempt of secession in Catalonia and others. There is a climate in the country (and the international situation) that favours anti-politics, demagoguery and the far right. Vox's entry was expected but very few predicted the violence of this explosion. Many voters in the last moment switched to them.

As for AA, I think that the Pidemos' factionalism and the infighting are regrettable. There are many IU voters reluctant to support alliances with Podemos, because they feel it's losing identity and assuming a secondary role. Also, there are oeople disillusioned thinking that Podemos forgot its origins and became too "institutional". All these factors may have contributed to demobilize the base, cause of the disappointing performance. It was hard for them because the campaign left a good impression.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2018, 09:04:49 PM
Is it safe to write Podemos' obituary at this point in the timeline?

No. Podemos is in a downward trend, but it's far from being dead. It's more likely at this point that Podemos becomes in the equivalent of La France Insoumise. They are already similar in ideology and leadership style (I think the 'cult sect trait is more accentuated in FI). I mean equivalent in what regards that FI has a significant support but it seems irrelevant in terms of political influence. Since its foundation Podemos has been a major actor in Spanish politics  and its influence is undeniable. However, Podemos has lost momentum...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 05, 2018, 04:55:28 AM
Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

Great map.
In particular, I find it very interesting how the center-left is completely annihilated downtown in all the largest cities (in Sevilla, PP+VOX get more than 60% pretty much everywhere).
This in in stark contrast to the urban/rural divide that's going on in the last few years, not least in Italy where PD is now the "party of the city center".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 05, 2018, 05:32:21 AM
Worth noting that in Spain the more sough you go, the more reversed the left/right axis is. In places like Galicia you can certainly see your standard cities=left; rurals=right scheme. However in much of Spain this is revresed, especially in the South (Andalucía, Extremadura, parts of Castille-La Mancha)

The most common explanation is that in these areas there's a minority of wealthy landowners (like for example the famous Duke of Alba) and a lot of rural poor peasants who vote left.

There are also areas where there isn't a rural/urban divide at all, Aragon being probably the best example.

Finally, in "nationalist" regions (Catalonia/Basque Country) while the divide is still there, it isn't on left/right issues but on nationalism/unionism issues. Unionist parties perform great in Barcelona and Bilbao's suburbs and metropolitan area (also smaller cities like San Sebastián or Tarragona) and border areas which are more "culturally Spanish" or different from Catalonia/Basque Country (southern Álava, Aran Valley). Meanwhile secessionists perform best in rural areas.

Also, Sánchez has backtracked and he will now bring a budget to parliament. Before he claimed that he wouldn't even attempt that. He also seems to be attacking secessionists slightly. I don't think he really expects it to pass so maybe he is trying to prepare the country for early elections?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 05, 2018, 05:46:58 AM
Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

Great map.
In particular, I find it very interesting how the center-left is completely annihilated downtown in all the largest cities (in Sevilla, PP+VOX get more than 60% pretty much everywhere).
This in in stark contrast to the urban/rural divide that's going on in the last few years, not least in Italy where PD is now the "party of the city center".

Downtown Madrid and Barcelona are more left leaning. Neighbourhoods like Lavapies in Madrid or Barri Gotic in Barcelona are Podemos strongholds. However there are other cities where the downtown is very right wing: Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga. .. I guess they are demographically different


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 05, 2018, 08:46:07 AM
The results in Poligono Sur are interesting. It's a working class, low income area south of Sevilla (Las Tres Mil Viviendas). It's very left wing, as you could expect. The most noticeable feature is the very low turnout*. Compare to right wing precincts in central Sevilla with turnouts above 70%.

* There is a small precinct near Las Letanías with an 8% turnout! (Distrito 05, sección 045)


https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polígono_Sur_(Sevilla)




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on December 05, 2018, 01:04:54 PM
 So the downtown parts of Sevilla went heavily against the left.  Demographically what are these areas like, wealthy, older, upscale, well-educated?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 05, 2018, 07:38:42 PM
So the downtown parts of Sevilla went heavily against the left.  Demographically what are these areas like, wealthy, older, upscale, well-educated?

Downtown Sevilla, that is to say the old historical quarters of the city, is comprised in a municipal district called Casco Antiguo. The district leans to the PP but it's not the more conservative part of the city. The districts of Los Remedios and Nervión are affluent and more right wing. Casco Antiguo is a touristic district and  many of the city's nightlife is located there.

Some demographic data of the district provided by the city council:

- The population pyramid shows that the district is ageing: 20% is above 64 years. The bulk of the population is between 40 and 44. No signs of natality recovery: there are less children aged 0-4 than aged 5-9. Women are 53.06% (Sevilla 52.49%) of the population and double men in the group above 70. Average age 44.45 (Sevilla 42.65); 6th highest ratio among the 11 districts.

-The proportion of foreign nationals (including EU) is 8.9 (Sevilla 5.2). Second highest ratio in the city behind Macarena.

-The average number of members by household is 2.16 (2.5). It's the lowest ratio in the city and suggest that there is a higher proportion of single member households. The district has the lowest ratio of households with at least one minor living in (20%)

The average income in Sevilla is 29929 Euros. The more affluent district is Los Remedios (42984) and the less affluent is Cerro-Amate (18866). Casco Antiguo ranks fourth with an average income of 33687 Euros.

At a neighbourhood level, the most affluent in Sevilla is Santa Clara (San Pablo-anta Justa district) with an average income around 50000 Euros, 4 times more than the poorer (Los Pajaritos in Cerro-Amate district).

I could find data for education and other indicators if I search more, but it's a bit late. I guess Downtown Sevilla is above average too.

Results in Casco Antiguo:

PP 26.3% (40.5% in 2015), AA 20.2%, Cs 19.3%, VOX 15.5%, PSOE 13.9%

Downtown Sevilla was never a good place for the PSOE, but this time the result was terrible.



-



-

 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: palandio on December 06, 2018, 04:08:45 AM
In many European cities there is a huge political difference between the historical center and the surrounding inner-city high-density residential quarters (usually from 1850-1914). Not differentiating between them often leads to confusion.

In many central European cities the historical center is relatively conservative, while most of the surrounding areas are left-wing strongholds.

In many southern European cities the historical center shows very strong results for the radical left, while the surrounding areas are extremely bourgeois.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2018, 08:34:40 AM
Apparently Vox has released a list of requests to support a government. I imagine this will be further discussed in government negotiations but it's a starting point and gives an idea of their priorities:

1: Close down the regional government owned TV broadcaster: Canal Sur

2: Return healthcare to the central government

3: Return education to the central government

4: Audit and replace the infamous "Plan of Agrarian Employment" (PER), often seen as a waste of money and corruption by the right

5: Study the abolition of "superflous government organizations"

6: Defending hunting and bullfighting

7: Repealing gender related laws, including the gender violence law of 2004

8: Repealing the "Historic Memory law", which has to do with how the Civil War is treated

9: Repealing the inheritance tax

10: Reducing income tax

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/12/05/politica/1544034782_431367.html

Worth noting that proposals 1-3 go against Andalucia's statute of autonomy and would require a 2/3 majority, approval by the Congress of Deputies and a referendum. In other words, unachievable.

5,6,9 and 10 are doable by the regional government easily. Probably 4 as well.

Finally, proposals 7 and 8 could only repeal any extra Andalusian laws, but not the national laws passed in 2005 and 2006.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 06, 2018, 08:49:38 AM
In many European cities there is a huge political difference between the historical center and the surrounding inner-city high-density residential quarters (usually from 1850-1914). Not differentiating between them often leads to confusion.

In many central European cities the historical center is relatively conservative, while most of the surrounding areas are left-wing strongholds.

In many southern European cities the historical center shows very strong results for the radical left, while the surrounding areas are extremely bourgeois.

As I said before, the historical centers of Madrid and Barcelona lean Podemos.  In the case of Barcelona it's more complicated. The district of Ciutat Vella ("Old City") backed strongly Ada Colau in the 2015 local elections and voted for En Comu Podem in the general elections of 2015 and 2016, but the support dropped in regional elections as it happened elsewhere (still the strongest place in Barcelona). In the central district of Madrid, the support for Podemos is very strong in the neighbourhood of Lavapies,  which is a place with singular characteristics. Lavapies is an old quarter traditionally poor and the proportion of immigrant population is very high. Many students,  left wingers and people with alternative lifestyles seek refuge there, but gentrification is going underway and rents are rising very fast... Podemos was launched in a theatre located in Lavapies.

In most of the main Spanish capitals the city centre leans to the right. In some cases the surrounding inner-city neighbourhoods are burgueois (Chamberi or Salamanca in Madrid), particularly the off-walls city expansions built in the XIX century (Eixample in Barcelona, similar neighbourhoods in other cities). These expansions are differentiated from the city centre. Inner city areas that are old villages absorbed by the city's growth may lean to the left sometimes. The working class and poorer neighbourhoods are often placed in the periphery, in areas built to absorb the immigrant population from the countryside or other regions since the 50s and the 60s in the XX century...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2018, 10:07:24 AM
Yes and no. As you say, in Madrid and Barcelona the city center proper leans left quite hard. In Madrid Centro is probably one of the most left wing districts alongside Villa de Vallecas and Puente de Vallecas (low income districts in Madrid's periphery)

Same in Barcelona where Ciutat Vella is the most pro-Podemos district though I'm unsure of what district is the most left wing overall because of the independence debate now being the main factor in Catalan politics.

As for other cities, it seems to vary, but the city center even when it leans right it's not always the most right wing part of town and there are other exceptions than Madrid and Barcelona. Here are several examples from the 2015 local elections:

Valencia

()

()

You can clearly see PP performing well in Ciutat Vella though it's not its strongest district, that seems to be the 19th century Eixample, Pla del Real and Extramurs.

Bilbao

()

()

This one is quite weird in that the district that contains the old medieval city center is actually Ibaiondo-Casco Viejo which is actually a very left wing stronhold! (with strong results for Podemos and Bildu).

I imagine Abando is the more bourgeois 19th century city expansion looking at the strong PNV and especially PP results? Taking a quick look at Wikipedia it seems Abando used to be its own town and then got engulfed by Bilbao in its 19th century expansion.

Zaragoza

()

()

Worth noting that the Zaragoza municipal boundary includes several rural areas. In the map, the red and "light green" districts are considered mostly rural while the blue ones are considered urban districts.

In any case you can see that the strongest results for PP came in the Centro and Casco Antiguo districts (and the peripheral Distrito Sur). I imagine the same pattern holds here, where Casco Antiguo is the old medieval city center while Centro is the "new city center" from the 19th century.

Interestingly you can see a Madrid-like pattern with Podemos performing well in Casco Antiguo, but not in Centro.

Alicante

()

Here, District 1 seems to correspond to the old city center as it has the town hall and the port. And this time, its a massive PP stronghold with its best results city wide.

Badajoz

Finally, a smaller city. And here again the city center does give PP great results

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 06, 2018, 10:29:39 AM
Some details with regards to the sresults in the district of Casco Antiguo in Sevilla. The district is divided in 12 neighbourhoods. Looking at the map of results by precinct it becomes evident that there is a clear divide between the central and southern neighbourhoods (very right wing) and the northern neighbourhoods (left wing with a strong AA support). The neighbourhood of El Arenal (located by the left side of the river in the south of the district) strikes as the more conservative place, with PP as the first party and Vpx coming in second place. The Santa Cruz neighbourhood by the river (Sevilla Cathedral) has similar results. In neighbourhoods like San Bernardo or La Salud PP comes first, while Cs and Vox are second depending on precincts. To the north the neighbourhoods of San Gil, Feria and San Lorenzo lean clearly to the left, with AA polling above 35% in some precincts.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 06, 2018, 10:31:29 AM
Some of the maps in the previous post are mine ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 06, 2018, 10:49:37 AM
Some of the maps in the previous post are mine ;)

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: palandio on December 06, 2018, 10:51:39 AM
Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 06, 2018, 11:20:07 AM
Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.

Pretty much. Barri Gotic in Barcelona and Lavapies in Madrid fall clearly in the last typology. El Arenal in downtown Sevilla is very posh, the kind of place in the city where the archetypal Andslusian señorito can live. I guess the neighbourhoods in central Sevilla that voted for AA fall in the typology of working class inner-city neighbourhoods as well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 06, 2018, 02:04:22 PM
Some of the maps in the previous post are mine ;)

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!

Go back in this thread and you'll find maps of the 2015 elections (local, regional and general). There are several city maps at district level


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 07, 2018, 03:54:47 AM
Troubled anniversary

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/06/inenglish/1544084057_287552.html

Quote
Spain is observing Constitution Day on Thursday, which marks the 40th anniversary of the document that officialized the country’s transition to democracy following four decades of dictatorial rule by Francisco Franco.

State and government officials addressed Congress to call for national unity and urge respect for the country’s institutions at a time when Spain is facing new challenges from the Catalan secessionist drive, political fragmentation, criticism of the judiciary and the rise of the far right.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Skye on December 07, 2018, 12:08:07 PM
So I recently moved to Spain and wanted to explore the electoral trends in a few places. Is there a site that lets me see results by district? Or one that has interactive maps. The Infoelectoral site doesn't have a breakdown by district. Any help would be appreciated!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 07, 2018, 12:27:07 PM
So I recently moved to Spain and wanted to explore the electoral trends in a few places. Is there a site that lets me see results by district? Or one that has interactive maps. The Infoelectoral site doesn't have a breakdown by district. Any help would be appreciated!

What do you mean by district? If you mean by constituency/province there are certainly several. Historia electoral is a particularly good resource in my opinion with a lot of information, though it doesn't have maps at all.

http://www.historiaelectoral.com/es.html

If you mean by municipality though, those are much much harder to find. El Mundo has maps available for the last 3 general elections (2011, 2015, 2016):

https://www.elmundo.es/grafico/espana/2016/06/27/57709ec1e5fdea870f8b4618.html

Alternatively, Público has a database with results by municipality for all general elections, but no maps other than at the provincial level:

https://especiales.publico.es/resultados-elecciones/generales/2000/

(replace 2000 with the appropiate election year)

Finally there's this resource at the Ministry of the Interior which has apparently information by municipality and even allegedly by precinct! It has information for every kind of election except for regional elections (for those you'd have to go to the appropiate site from each regional government) However it's harder to use since it doesn't give percentages and has huge Excel spreadsheets. Still, if you are familiar with statistics programs you should be able to do a lot with it.

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/infoelectoral/min/areaDescarga.html?method=inicio


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 07, 2018, 01:04:47 PM
Historical results by municipality are easily available at infoelectoral. The Ministry of the Interior collects data for general, local, EP elections and referenda. Infoelectoral has results at municipal district level, but only for a few major cities: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga and Bilbao

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/

Results of regional elections at constituency and municipal level are available at the websites of the different regional governments.

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Finally there's  data at precinct level available in Excels




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Skye on December 07, 2018, 02:34:11 PM
Thank you. I'll use those links. I also found one from El País, and I find it quite useful:

https://resultados.elpais.com/resultats/eleccions/2016/generals/congreso/

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Thank you, this is more or less what I was looking for.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 08, 2018, 08:44:18 AM
Vote transfers according to Sigma Dos

() (https://ibb.co/cLQ98jD)

Vox catches from:PP 178000, Cs 58000, Abstention 39000, Others 33000, Podemos 28000, PSOE 26000, IU 5000
Cs catches from: PP 178000, Abstention 103000, PSOE 99000, Others 35000, Podemos 7000, IU 7000
Abstention catches from: Podemos 298000, PSOE 254000, IU 115000, PP 39000, Others 29000, Cs 27000

I read yesterday some analysis on strong Vox precincts in El Mundo that I'm not able to find now. In short: half of the precincts where Vox gets more than 20% of the vote are located in Almería province, namely in the Poniente region also known as " The Plastic Sea" because of the extensive greenhouses (El Ejido, Roquetas de Mar...). The other half is located elsewhere and correspond to wealthy inner city neighbourhoods (such as Los Remedios and El Arenal in Sevilla) or affluent suburbs ("villa with swimming pool" typology)  in the periphery of towns and cities. Vox received less support in working class areas, but this doesn't imply they performed bad. Important: there is no correlation between high proportion of immigrants and strong support for Vox outside Almeria province.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 09, 2018, 09:06:09 AM
First real poll after the Andalusian election:

Invymark-La Sexta

()

Seems plausible though I think Vox should be at 10% instead unless there's a lot of dual voting. Podemos is also quite low.

Also the right wing bloc at 53%, which would be a record for any ideological bloc (largest thus far would be PSOE+PCE's 52% in 1982). PSOE+PCE 82' would still beat PP+Cs+Vox today in terms of seats because they are more fragmented while in 82 PSOE got a whopping 48% of the vote. (an even swing would mean 190 seats for PP+Cs+Vox and 178 for PP+Cs alone; while PSOE+PCE got 206 and 202 for PSOE alone)

Similarly, the left wing bloc (PSOE+UP) is at 38%, only marginally higher than PSOE+IU's result in 2011 (36%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 09, 2018, 09:17:47 AM
Fragmentation of the vote for Vox: from the greenhouses to the high level developments

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/12/08/5c0ac8e121efa09c2f8b45f9.html

Vox received more than 20% of the vote in a total of 316 precincts or census sections.

Vox succeeds in the coast of Almeria province ("Sea of Plastic"). In Sevilla, Córdoba, Algeciras or Puerto de Santa María the Vox strongholds are located in high end developments with detached houses and swimming pools.

Vox leader Santiago Abascal told to the ABC newspaper they got an "excellent result" in Las Tres Mil Viviendas of Sevilla, a low income neighbourhood with areas of high social deprivation and insecurity. The claim is false, since the support for Vox in the area is always below 10%, in contrast to nearly 30% support in nearby affluent neighbourhoods to the south of Sevilla. A look at this map of results by precinct confirms that: in the poor sections of southern Sevilla known as Las Tres Mil Viviendas (Barriada Murillo, Las Letanías) PSOE comes first and AA is the second party with turnout always below 50%.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

There are 62 precincts in the city of Sevilla where Vox gets more than 20%, located in affluent neighbourhoods belonging to Los Remedios, Palmera-Bellavista and Casco Antiguo (the historic centre). Significant features of these neighbourhoods are: low foreign population (roughly 3%) and high turnout (around 75%). Similarly the places in Córdoba where Vox gets more support are the historic centre and the high end residential developments north of the city such as El Brillante and El Naranjo, neighbourhoods with a strong support for PP and Cs as well. Average income in the Vox strongholds of Córdoba and Sevilla is well above average.

There are other Vox strongholds located in coastal municipalities of the Málaga province and in the Bay of Algeciras ("Bay of Gibraltar" for the Brits). Suburban coastal villa developments in the periphery of Algeciras and Puerto de Santa María record 20% to 25% vote for Vox. Similar results can be found in isolated developments near to golf resorts located in Marbella, Mijas or Benalmádena (coast of Málaga).

Half of the precincts where Vox gets more than 20% are in Almería province. They are in areas of El Ejido, Roquetas de Mar, Almería, Adra, Vicar and Níjar. These locations are within the extensive greenhouse network known as the "Sea of Plastic". The economy of this region is highly reliant on irrigated greenhouse crops and the workforce is immigrant. The proportion of foreign population in municipalities like El Ejido (Vox came first getting 29.5%) is above 30%.

As said in the previous post, there is no correlation between vote for Vox and high proportion of foreignpopulation outside Almeria province.

In the 316 precincts where Vox gets more than 20% all parties lose support except Ciudadanos.

This analysis in El Mundo features some maps and graphs.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 12, 2018, 05:34:40 PM
Pretty funny how much the PSOE's strategy of hyping up Vox to create discord in the right have backfired huge on them. Feel bad for Sanchez, but glad the barons will end up in prison.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 14, 2018, 07:47:27 PM
I don't think any of the barons are going to prison any time soon. PSOE is corrupt but most current officials outside Andalucia seem to be clean. Susana Diaz herself is probably clean though her inner circle probably isn't.

Only "barons" that are going to prison are Jose Antonio Griñán and Manuel Chaves (the 2 predecessors to Susana Díaz as Andalusian premier), both for the ERE scandal.

Also, we just got 2 regional polls for Navarra. For some reason that community seems to be getting a lot of polling.

Gizkaer for Euskal Irrati Telebista (the Basque regional government's TV station)

()

()

PP right at the 3% hurdle, though they give them 0 seats instead of something like 0-1.

Navarrómetro (apparently the regional equivalent to the nation wide CIS)

()

()

I certainly trust the first poll more than the 2nd one (much more reliable), even if it might have a pro-GBai bias (GBai works somewhat as the Navarra brand of PNV, but more left wing?).

In any case, I still think the Navarra government is lean GBai. UPN has a shot of coming back, but I wouldn't count on it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 15, 2018, 12:54:17 PM
Geroa Bai is a coalition acting in Navarre including PNV, Zabaltzen and Atarrabia Taldea. The two latter are centre-left or left-wing Basque nationalist parties. The leader of Zabaltzen is premier Uxue Barkos, who is the most important and charismatic figure of Geroa Bai. I would challenge the notion of GBai as the brand of PNV in Navarre,  since this party never had electoral success in the region running in its own. Batasuna, EA or Aralar (currently part of EH Bildu) were more relevant in Navarre than PNV. I think GBai represents a more moderate version of Basque nationalism than EH Bildu and its success relies in good measure on Uxue Barkos.

I suspect that the role of Cs in the ongoing negotiation yo conform the Abdalusian government will be a source of amusement. Oranges are already having a hard time trying to deny the obvious: PP and Cs need the support of the far right to govern. This is not a major problem for the PP, apparently. Vox leaders say they don't want posts in government,  but they want to be heard and their vote is not for free. It seems that Vox won't tolerate to be ignored by Cs. I wonder what are going to do Manuel Valls or Guy Verhofstadt  ;D

Are PP, Cs and Vox conforming an informal right wing nationalist block playing the music of José Maria Aznar, as some analysts suggest?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 15, 2018, 04:23:11 PM
New left wing party with former judge Baltasar Garzón and former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares as main figures could contest next EP, regional and local elections. The party is created from a platform of IU critics and left-wing disenchanted called Actúa ("Act")

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181215/453558362197/llamazares-garzon-actua-nueva-formacion-elecciones.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=politica&utm_campaign=lv&fbclid=IwAR1bYTFgysHjmgoqKdqc45Q71alKOEzofQ6Bzmo09jSFcO2S0hp9Jy_5Ryw

Former IU leaders Gaspar Llamazares and Cayo Lara, the IU mayor of Zamora and other critics signed a document criticizing IU and Podemos leaderships shortly after the Andalusian elections. They accused Alberto Garzón and Pablo Iglesias of having more interest in surpassing PSOE as the main force in the left than building a progressive majority.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 15, 2018, 05:28:17 PM
New left wing party with former judge Baltasar Garzón and former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares as main figures could contest next EP, regional and local elections. The party is created from a platform of IU critics and left-wing disenchanted called Actúa ("Act")

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181215/453558362197/llamazares-garzon-actua-nueva-formacion-elecciones.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=politica&utm_campaign=lv&fbclid=IwAR1bYTFgysHjmgoqKdqc45Q71alKOEzofQ6Bzmo09jSFcO2S0hp9Jy_5Ryw

Former IU leaders Gaspar Llamazares and Cayo Lara, the IU mayor of Zamora and other critics signed a document criticizing IU and Podemos leaderships shortly after the Andalusian elections. They accused Alberto Garzón and Pablo Iglesias of having more interest in surpassing PSOE as the main force in the left than building a progressive majority.

Do we think there is enough time until new elections are called for these guys to go anywhere or impact the results, or is the timeframe too soon?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 15, 2018, 06:48:31 PM
Quote
 
Do we think there is enough time until new elections are called for these guys to go anywhere or impact the results, or is the timeframe too soon    

Personally I'm rather sceptic about the electoral viability of this party. I admit that I was totally wrong about the impact of Vox (it was a last minute surge in good measure). Back in the day very few predicted the impact of Podemos in the 2014 EP rlections. Said this, I think that people like Llamazares or the former judge Garzón can hardly represent a fresh alternative. I think that Gaspar Llamazares is not a bad guy, but... Anyway winning seats in the EP parliament is relatively easy due to the proportional system, or having some councilors or even members of regional parliaments (Llamazares was the IU candidate in Asturias). These guys are affiliated to the European 'party' launched by Yannis Varoufakis.

This project is a symptom of dissension in the left (nothing new), but not all if the IU and Podemos critics will join Actúa.  For instance Iñigo Errejon, the leader of a faction in Podemos and candidate in the region of Madrid. He says openly that his vision and strategy are different from those of Pablo Iglesias,  but he is one of the founders of Podemos and won't leave. Errejon advocates to dispute the idea of Spain and the national emblems to the right. This doesn't imply mimicking the Vox jingoism as the PP does, but proposing another concept of patriotism and giving people some certainties...

https://ctxt.es/es/20181212/Politica/23449/íñigo-Errejón-entrevista-Comunidad-de-Madrid-pacto-Gabilondo-símbolos-nacionales.htm

Errejon thinks that creating "anti-fascist" fronts is not a good strategy to counter the rise of the far right, because Vox is the symptom and not the illness. I tend to agree with this point of view.

On the opposite side, veteran IU leaders Julio Anguita and Manolo Monereo (currently Podemos deputy and very influential for Pablo Iglesias) say that the success of Salvini in Italy is due to the failure of the left and even praise his "social policies",  as well as his defence of  "popular sovereignty" and "national independence". In my opinion this is going way too far (I don't think Pablo Iglesias sanctions this point of view, thankfully)...






Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 15, 2018, 07:26:33 PM
Honestly, the big impact if it stands alone (instead of going into coalition with Podemos and/or IU), would be 2:

1: Will they get seats in the EU parliamentary election? It's quite easy to get one, they'd need roughly 1.5-1.6% of the vote. If they get even 1 seat that will give them some traction

2: If they choose to contest regional elections, how well will they do in Asturias? (the home region of Llamazares, I'll assume he runs under Actua and not IU if he runs for reelection, he is still IU-Asturias regional party leader after all).

Still, I can't really see them getting much more than say, 2.5% of the vote and 1 seat.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 17, 2018, 09:17:44 AM
Lol, three new polls have come out and they are all horrible for the left


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 17, 2018, 09:59:34 AM
El confidencial

Psoe25.8%
Cs:20%
PP:19.6%
UP:15.5%
Vox:8%

PP, Vox, Cs= 48%
Psoe, UP= 41%

La razon

Psoe: 24.8%
Cs:18%
PP:24.4%
UP:17.2%
Vox:8.7%

Vox, cs pp=51.1%
Psoe, UP=42%
Psoe,UP,Others:49%

ABC

Psoe:24.2%
Cs:20.7%
PP:20.5%
UP:14.2%
Vox:8.7%

PP, Cs, Vox=49.9%


30% of the respondents answered that the unit of Spain was their number one priority when voting


In pp, cs and vox was the number one priority of their voters


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SPQR on December 17, 2018, 10:27:14 AM
That seems a pretty huge bump for Vox...?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2018, 11:04:02 AM

It appears to be mostly coming from PP/PSOE rather then C's which is interesting.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: BigSerg on December 17, 2018, 11:28:21 AM
Other poll

El español

Psoe:25.5%
PP:21.6%
Cs:19%
UP:17.8%
Vox:8.5%

Vox,pp, cs=49.1%

This poll is the only one that does not give an absolute majority to the right. Quite strange since the percentage of right-wing votes largely wins to the left



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 17, 2018, 03:39:47 PM
Other poll

El español

Psoe:25.5%
PP:21.6%
Cs:19%
UP:17.8%
Vox:8.5%

Vox,pp, cs=49.1%

This poll is the only one that does not give an absolute majority to the right. Quite strange since the percentage of right-wing votes largely wins to the left


To be fair, considering the percentages for each party I imagine Vox is now acting partially as a spoiler for the right, kind of what IU traditionally did for the left. They are getting 9%, but with that percentage they are probably getting around 20 seats.

The best example I can put is the 1996 election, where Aznar became PM even though the combined right was defeated by the combined left 39-48. Then again that was in an era where PP-nationalist deals weren't exactly impossible, with Aznar "speaking Catalan behind closed doors".

But even if you add CiU and PNV (or CC) to the right's total it still loses 45-48.

For another, more recient example, in the 2015 general election the combined left (PSOE+Podemos+IU) beat the combined right (PP+Cs) 46-43, but the combined right got slightly more seats (163 for PP+Cs; 161 for PSOE+Podemos+IU)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 17, 2018, 03:43:44 PM

To be honest, considering the Andalusian election results, it might actually be too low! Then again I don't think an "even swing" would be accurate, the Andalusian election also had particular circumstances.

Still, I'd say Vox is probably just shy of double digits at this point.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 19, 2018, 10:31:02 AM
This is something I saw today on the news that I found interesting.

Apparently the association of journalists covering parliamentary activity gave prizes to congressmen (also senators and MEPs) on the following categories.

Best speaker (probably the most important one): Ana Oramas (CC)
Runner ups: Joan Tardá (ERC), Albert Rivera (Cs), Pablo Iglesias (Podemos)

Best government critic: Pablo Casado (PP)
Runner-ups: Rafael Hernándo (PP), Albert Rivera (Cs), Beatriz Escudero (PP)

Best opposition critic: Carmen Calvo (Deputy Prime Minister, PSOE)
Runner-ups: Pedro Sánchez (Prime Minister, PSOE); María Jesús Montero (Treasury Minister, PSOE), Aitor Esteban (PNV)

Best press relations: María Jesús Montero (Treasury Minister, PSOE)
Runner ups: Jose Manuel Villegas (Cs), Ione Belarra (UP), Carles Campuzano (PDECat)

Best press critic: Adriana Lastra (PSOE)
Runner ups: Dolors Montserrat (PP), Rafael Mayoral (UP), Carles Mulet (Compromís)

Most active congressman: Yolanda Díaz (UP)
Runner ups: María Jesús Moro (PP), Oskar Matute (EH Bildu), Ángeles Álvarez (PSOE)

Best internet presence: Melisa Rodríguez (Cs)
Runner ups: Gabriel Rufián (ERC), Ignacio Cosidó (PP), Pablo Iglesias (UP)

Best revelation congressman: Ione Belarra (UP)
Runner ups: Teodoro García Egea (PP), Marta Sorlí (Compromís), Guillermo Díaz (Cs)

1 million euro parliamentary question:  Carlos Floriano Corrales (PP)

Quote
The Spanish have been able to see in the La Moncloa twitter account several photos of President Sánchez ... in the same official page you can see the president with a collaborator, checking inside the plane some documents with dark sunglasses on. Are they prescription glasses?

Runner ups: Ignasi Candela Serna (Compromís) (kinda hard to translate I'd say)

Quote
Her Excellency Mrs. Celia Villalobos Talero, president of the Commission of Monitoring and Evaluation of the Covenants of Toledo, has suggested in the last hours to young people of 25 years to save "2 small euros per month" for their pension ... Do not consider the Government that more than "2 small euros", it would be better that young people of 25 years save 2 large euros per month? "

Dolors Montserrat (PP):

Quote
Does the government know what the Spanish people are thinking?

Best senator: Ander Gil (PSOE)
Runner ups: Ignacio Cosidó (PP), Maribel Mora (Podemos), Jon Iñarritu (EH Bildu)

Best revelation senator: Luis Aznar (PP)
Runner ups: Lorena Roldán (Cs), María José López Santana (NCa) Esther Muñoz (PP)

Best European Parliament congressman: Iratxe García (PSOE)
Runner ups: Javier Nart (Ciudadanos), Miguel Urbán (Podemos), Marina Albiol (IU)

http://www.periodistasparlamentarios.org/?p=4928

Interestingly enough, Santa Cruz de Tenerife's delegation actually saw 2 prizes (out of 7 MPs!). Come to think about it, Santa Cruz de Tenerife has some of the best congressmen IMO. Then again that might bias since I see them a lot on regional TV.

I have to say I generally agree with the prizes (at least for the politicians I know). Ana Oramas, even though I hate her party regionally, is probably one of the better speakers in Congress. Small regionalist parties often have good speakers, back in the 00s the tiny Aragonese Chunta had former singer Jose Antonio Labordeta. And of course the Cantabrian Regionalist Party has Revilla as leader, also very good speaker (albeit quite populist).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2018, 03:09:55 PM
Pedro Sánchez and the Catalan premier Quim Torra are meeting in Barcelona right now.

Tomorrow Pedro Sánchez will chair a meeting of the Council of Ministers, while pro-independence activists will protest in the streets.  The cabinet meeting in Barcelona was scheduled months ago. However recent developments contributed to escalate tension, particularly some ststements made by premier Torra about the "Slovenian path to independence". There was fear of violent incidents at protests tomorrow leading to an abrupt end of the legislature. There have been calls to calm the situation. The meeting between Sánchez and Torra might be a step in deescalation...

Meanwhile, the jailed Catalan leaders on hunger strike cakked off

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/20/inenglish/1545305359_830896.html

Quote
Four Catalan politicians who are currently being held in pre-trial custody for their role in last year’s independence drive have called off a hunger strike that they began earlier this month, claiming that they have achieved their objective.

A group of Catalan politicians including fuve former premiers released yesterday an open letter calling the men to cease the protest, in order to protect their lives and health; ensuring their "optimum participation" in the ongoing trials and in the future of the country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 22, 2018, 11:52:04 AM
The cabinet meeting was regarded "positive" despite protests and road blocks

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/21/inenglish/1545412397_365710.html

Quote
thousands of supporters of Catalan independence have joined a march that began at 6pm in downtown Barcelona.

The demonstration follows a daylong series of protests that resulted in at least 13 arrests as pro-independence activists blocked major roads and clashed with police in Barcelona, where Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was holding a special Cabinet meeting(...)

Meanwhile, the Socialist Party (PSOE) government in Madrid is making “a very positive assessment” of the private meeting between PM Pedro Sánchez and Catalan premier Quim Torra, who met on Thursday in Barcelona. In a joint press release, both leaders said they were committed to finding a “political proposal that is widely supported by the Catalan people.”

On Friday, the Cabinet greenlighted several symbolic measures for Catalonia, such as changing the name of Barcelona airport to Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat, to honor a former Catalan head of government who lived in exile during Franco’s rule.

PP, Cs and Madrid conservative media have a radically different narrative. Any attempt of dialogue is described as treason, surrender or "humiliation". The Spanish Right is currently split in three parties. They have in common a tough stance against separatists. They also have in common the influence of former PM José María Aznar, who is very clear in what regards the "secessionist challenge". PP and Cs want the immediate implementation of article 155 (direct rule, suspension of regional autonomy) for an indefinite period. Some people think the constitutionality of such a drastic measure is dubious. Other people think that implementing article 155 without a clear reason, aside "the complete defeat of separatism" (Vox), would represent a democratic involution. No dialogue. No surrender. Ulster.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 22, 2018, 12:49:13 PM
Apparently PP and Cs have reached a deal in Andalucia. However, that deal also apparently excluded Vox, who is now claiming that they will vote against their deal.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/PP-Cs-impuestos-Gobierno-plataforma_0_848665559.html

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-excluir-PSOE-PP-Ciudadanos-Gobierno_0_848665672.html

If that happens, a 2 month countdown from the investiture vote will start. If there's no premier by then there will be a 2nd regional election (probably some time around April?), just like in 2015-2016 but at a regional scale.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 23, 2018, 11:30:07 PM
Euskobarometro poll for the Basque Parliament

EAJ-PNV 38.3% 31 seats (+3)
EH Bildu 23.1% 18 seats (=)
PSE-EE  13.5% 11 seats (+2)
Elkarrekin Podemos 10 3%  7 seats (-4)
PP 8.2% 7 seats (-2)
Cs 3% 1 seat (+1)

Sample size: 1200
Fieldwork: October 15 to November 9


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 26, 2018, 06:40:09 PM
While it's not rare to find polls for local elections on certain municipalities, it is indeed rare to find polls for local elections nationally. However ABC seems to have done one. Here are its results

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-ciudadanos-y-superan-cuatro-puntos-izquierda-elecciones-municipales-201812262307_noticia.html

Popular vote:

()

Councillors in the 52 provincial capitals

()

Chances of a PP+Cs+Vox majority by provincial capital

()

About the last two, they are mostly based on an "even swing" model from 2015 so they can and will be inaccurate, particularly in cases of small towns with popular left wing incumbents.

If we give the left every town in brown or red, that would be 20 provincial capitals. However, a bad sign would be that of those 20 provincial capitals, a whopping 14 would be located in places with some sort of nationalist or regionalist movement, where the left+regional right basically run up the score (Galicia, Basque Country, Navarra, Catalonia, Canary Islands)

And of the few outside those regions, none of the 6 would be particularly large towns, with only Cádiz being above 100 000 people.

As for the popular vote, everything seems low but that's because of local parties. The PP-PSOE difference seems in line with most local elections thus far, all elections since 1999 have ended in virtual ties except for 2011.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 27, 2018, 08:06:14 AM
Today was the first session of the newly elected parliament of Andalucia. There had been a lot of negotiations to get the "parliament table" (which basically regulates parliamentary procedures and what gets and doesn't get a vote).

In the end there was a deal orchestrated by Cs so everyone got at least 1 seat (there are 7). However, AA dropped out of the deal last minute in order to "not soften the image of the far right".

In the end, though a PP-Cs-Vox deal Marta Bosquet (Cs) was elected parliament president (first Cs parliament president), and it's expected that eventually there will be a right wing deal.

The full composition of the "parliament table" ended up as:

2 PSOE
2 PP
2 Cs
1 Vox

https://www.elmundo.es/andalucia/2018/12/27/5c24b010fdddff18328b469b.html

So there's a right wing majority, a PP-Cs majority and a PSOE-Cs majority. IMO this distribution is unfair, Cs should have 1 less member and AA one more. But then again that's what AA gets for dropping out I guess. Then again it seems that if AA hadn't dropped out maybe their seat would come from PSOE and not Cs so maybe it wasn't a bad idea after all



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2018, 12:54:25 AM
PP and Cs closed a deal on Wednesday to take control of the speaker's committee in the Andalusian parliament. as well as they sealed a 90 point deal with measures to govern the southern region. As a result, Juan Manuel Moreno (PP) is the likely next premier while Marta Bosquet (Cs) is the new speaker with the support of PP, Cs and Vox. The far-right party is demanding to negotiate the points of the deal between PP and Cs in order to vote the Moreno's investiture, while the oranges oppose to any modification. Anyway I suspect they are acting.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/27/inenglish/1545899006_561835.html

Quote
The center-right party Ciudadanos closed a deal on Wednesday with the support of the conservative Popular Party (PP) to take control of the speaker’s committee in the Andalusian parliament, paving the way for the regional PP leader, Juan Manuel Moreno, to stand as the candidate for premier of the southern Spanish region. The move would see the Socialist Party (PSOE) lose power in the Junta, as the regional government is known, for the first time in 36 years.

Talks in Andalusia have been ongoing since regional polls were held on December 2. The PSOE, led by incumbent premier Susana Díaz, had been expected to win the early elections, but in a shock result the party took the most seats in parliament, 33, but fell well short of a majority of 55. It was their worst result in the region since Spain returned to democracy. The PP came in second, with 26 seats, while Ciudadanos were third with 21. The major surprise was the strong performance of far-right group Vox, which won more than 391,000 votes (10.9%), giving it 12 deputies. The anti-immigration group is the first of its kind to win seats in a Spanish parliament since the end of the Francisco Franco dictatorship. It now holds the key to power in Andalusia, given that its votes, added to those of the PP and Ciudadanos, constitute an absolute majority (...)

The bolded sentence is not totally correct. A far-right party called Fuerza Nueva (FN) led by a certain Blas Piñar won a seat in the 1979 general elections. There are differences between FN and Vox. The latter was the party of the hardcore Francoists (they were called "the bunker"), while the Manuel Fraga's AP (currently PP) represented by that time a conservative vote ("sociological Francoism") somewhat nostalgic of the old regime but seeking to adapt to the new times. Vox is a radical split of PP which advocates a extremely tough stance on the territorial crisis and with strong affinity with the French FN (currently RN) on immigration and islamophobia, but not on economics (FN/RN is protectionist and Vox neoliberal). In all likelihood there is some Franco nostalgia in Vox (a candidate for Málaga told a journalist that Franco's regime was not a dictatorship), but obviously the Vox phenomenon doesn't rely on them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Lumine on December 28, 2018, 01:17:45 AM
I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2018, 05:42:16 AM
I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.

Possibly this is related to the particular circumstances of that historical period, after the death of Franco. On the one hand there is the trauma of the Spanish Civil War and the fear of another conflict, which was shared by people on the left and the right. On the other hand, there was a huge thirst of modernity in Spain that became increasingly evident in the 60s and the 70s. I guess both factors favoured the reformist elements of the regime (Afolfo Suárez and part of the UCD leadership), as well as favoured pact over rupture on the left. As for the second factor, modernity was associated with democracy and EU integration (this explains why Spain is still comparatively more pro EU than other countries). There was a strong "sociological Francoism", but a majority of these conservative elements was in favour of a "controlled" transition. The violent far right elements were a minority, but they were quite visible (Atocha killing in 1977, coup attempt in 1981). Only the collapse of the UCD allowed Manuel Fraga to become the leader of the opposition in 1982, but he was unable to break the so called 'Fraga's ceiling' due to his close association to the old regime. Fraga had to give way to a younger generation and retreat to his stronghold in Galicia...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 28, 2018, 06:51:55 AM
For what is worth, you could argue that the "Jose María Ruiz Mateos Electoral Group" was also sort of a far right party, they ran on "Spain for the Spanish, jobs for everybody" and had an anti-EU campaign of sorts (back in the 80s and 90s!)

https://www.lasexta.com/programas/el-objetivo/noticias/asi-era-el-populismo-de-ruiz-mateos-que-me-voteis-leches-a-ver-si-os-enterais_20161120583226140cf24c3ff69be60c.html

Ruiz Mateos was somewhat more popular than Blas Piñar as well.

Though I think Ruiz Mateos wasn't really far right and more of just a pure populist protest vote against Felipe González and the establishment. Same with Jesus Gil's GIL later on (who never ran on far right positions I think)

Of course, Vox is very different from all of those. I can't really think of any comparisons that would come without a flaw.

Also, while Fuerza Nueva was the first to get seats in a Spanish parliament, Vox is still technically the first to get seats in a regional assembly, as by the time of the first regional elections (1983) Fuerza Nueva was already dead.

Closest thing to the far right getting seats in a regional assembly thus far was Plataforma x Catalunya in 2010, who got 2.5% of the vote and would have needed 3% to get in. PxC actually had some sucess in local elections, but nothing beyond that, and when the secessionist movement started they quickly lost steam as people started voting based on that and not on immigration


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2018, 07:27:22 AM
José Maria Ruiz Mateos and Jesús Gil were clearly right wing populists. I think that Ruiz Mateos was a staunch social conservative, while the populist stances of Jesús Gil on law and order (probably on immigration too) were very close to Vox.  These populist figures may appeal the same kind of angry conservative voters than Vox. Probably the difference between them is that Vox is more "ideological" and more vocal on certain issues.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 28, 2018, 05:03:11 PM
I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: bigic on December 29, 2018, 02:26:07 AM
As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 29, 2018, 04:43:19 AM
I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)

Possibly Gil was more close to Berlusconi than to Salvini. I meant that Jesus Gil was a right wing populist with tough stances on law snd order. As pointed in the previous post, the GIL party was particularly succesful in Ceuta and Melilla. Both places are Spanish outposts in Morocco with strong Muslim populations. They sre PP strongholds and presumably breeding grounds for parties like Vox.

As for the Marbella municipality, results were as follows:

PSOE 24%, PP 22.8%, Cs 21.1%, Vox 13.3%, AA 12.6%, PACMA 2.4%

The PSOE plurality may be misleading. Marbella and the municipalities in the coast of Málaga province (Costa del Sol) lean to the right. PP came first in previous elections. This time the fragmentation of the right allowed that socialists are ahead despite heavy loses. The three parties on the right are all above avearage with an aggregate 57.2%, while PSOE and AA are below average with an aggregate 36.6%. Possibly the Vox results at precinct level are interesting to watch, especially in high income developments close to golf courses...

I linked a map of results by precinct in a previous page



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on December 29, 2018, 08:17:24 AM
As for Gil, in Ceuta Vox is second by a recent poll with ~20% support. Ceuta was a Gil stronghold - they won the election in 1999.

Yeah, GIL was very strong for some bizarre reason in the 2 autonomous cities. The 2000 general election is actually an even better example with GIL being second with around 25% of the vote even though they polled at 0.35% nationally!

I wouldn't be too surprised if Vox managed to win the Ceuta or Melilla mayor-premiership or win the general elections there, particularly if PP collapses for some reason. I still think it should be strong enough for a plurality win though (remember Ceuta and Melilla have only 1 seat each)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on January 01, 2019, 06:15:04 PM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on January 01, 2019, 06:19:40 PM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 01, 2019, 06:27:57 PM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on January 01, 2019, 06:29:59 PM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

In a ungovernability crisis, Spain is already in one, sort of. But, yeah, these numbers don't exude stability. About C's, i don't think Vox would be a big issue as they would only negotiate with PP and then, maybe give crumbs to Vox to assure their votes in an investiture. After that, a PP-C's, or C's-PP, could govern with the occasional support of Vox or juggle with the divisions in the PSOE. That's my take.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 01, 2019, 07:02:42 PM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

Worth noting that that poll gave a virtual tie in terms of seats between UP and Vox (45-47 for UP; 43-45 for Vox)

That seems odd (I don't think UP's vote is that inefficient, they should be on the low 50s IMO)

Also, that poll actually placed Vox in 1st place in the 2 cities in North Africa: Ceuta and Melilla! That does seem like a possibility as they are huge right wing stronholds where Vox's message will have a huge public but still


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 01, 2019, 07:07:19 PM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

Actually, I don't think there will be an ungovernability crisis with these results. My guess for the next government formation is:

PSOE+Cs gets a majority dependent o no one, or at worst the tiny Canarian Coalition: PSOE+Cs government gets formed

If not, if PP+Cs+Vox has a majority, a PP+Cs coalition government is formed, with outside support from Vox

If neither of those has a majority, but somehow PSOE+UP has one (with the help of "pragmatic" nationalists, ie CC, PNV, Compromís, etc) then a PSOE+UP government gets formed

If none of those options has a majority (ie everything depends on the Catalan nationalists), then we indeed have a governability problem and we will have a 2nd election (or maybe a very weak PSOE minority government like the current one)

Right now, my chances would be:

55%: Some sort of PP+Cs+Vox government
30%: Some sort of PSOE+Cs government
10%: Governability crisis / New elections
5: Some sort of PSOE+UP or PSOE minority government


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on January 02, 2019, 08:06:24 AM
Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.

Would not VOX be signing their own death warrant if they did that on the national level ?  They would be seen as sell outs by their anti-establishment vote base for peanuts.  I would imagine that their vote base would demand that any support they give has policy impact I would hand hardly see C allowing to take place if they were in the coalition. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 02, 2019, 08:09:45 AM
That poll points out a terrible possibility. I'm certain that a PP-Cs government propped up by Vox (with José Maria Aznar as grey eminence) means going back in fundamental rights, a regressive social agenda, neoliberal economics and the re-centralization of the state. The attempt to solve the crisis in Catalonia through the indefinite implementation of direct rule (via article 155) means the £mposition of a state of exception. That move would suppose rising tension and unrest, as well as fuelling separatism. In other words: right wing nationalism means democratic involution. Hard times are coming.

A coalition between the socialists and the orange populists would be less terrible,  but we are not even cose to that posdibility at this moment. The new year will be turbulent, that's for sure.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2019, 11:12:51 AM
Here is the full El Mundo poll, which shows the far-right VOX gaining rapidely:

()

If you look at their July results, it seems VOX is gaining across the board from all major parties.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on January 02, 2019, 11:18:17 AM
I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Umengus on January 02, 2019, 02:00:37 PM
I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

earthquake if so.

Yes, probably ENF.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 02, 2019, 02:54:10 PM
I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

Actually, I think they've been on talks with both ECR and ENF. I'd say they eventually join ECR and not ENF, but I could be wrong


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 03, 2019, 05:25:32 AM
I think it's quite irrelevant which European group will join Vox. I'd say that in all likelihood it will be far right and eurosceptic.

More interesting is the Vox blackmail to PP and Cs in Andalusia. In order to vote the investiture of PP candidate Juan Manuel Moreno, the far right party demands that blues and oranges remove public funds to support measures against gender based violence. They are included in the 90 point deal signed by PP and Cs. Vox is not willing to vote funds to protect women, because gender based violence is an invention of feminazis in the particular cosmovision of the far right party (Bolsonaro would support this). PP and Cs spokepersons rejected the Vox demands with varying degrees of firmness. However, Vox is crystal water here: if PP and Cs want to fight gender vased violence, they can negotiate with PSOE and AA. Either Vox or PP and Cs will have to give in, otherwise the investiture fails and Andalusia goes to a repetition of elections...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 03, 2019, 06:30:39 AM
To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 03, 2019, 08:31:49 AM
To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.

The regional government can't reverse the devolution of education, justice or healthcare. Another question is that a right wing nationalist government takes office after the next general elections. Then the new cabinet (led by Casado or Rivera) implements the state of emergency on Catalonia (article 155) and undertakes the re-centralization of Spain. The hypothetical right wing government would be  coalition of two parties (PP and Cs) propped up by a third party (Vox) that pushes further to the right. However the complete dismantling of regional autonomy is not possible without a constitutional reform and there's no quorum, so regional autonomy would be diminished but not abolished as Vox advocates. Vox also wanted to close the Andalusian TV and radio broadcaster, but Santiago Abascal and friends realized that it's necessary to reform the statute of autonomy and downgraded the demand to severe spending cuts. The belligerent attitude of Vox towards gender violence policies is not surprising at all, because the repeal of legislation was one of the main campaign banners. Back in the day PP voted to pass the law against gender violence and Cs receded due to heavy criticism during the 2015 campaign. Even though PP and Cs are not sympathetic towards feminists, they can't repeal legislation without paying a price because concern on gender based violence is widespread in society. On the other hand, there are more subtle ways to boycott a legislation than those advocated by Vox. For instance, the Rajoy administration lowered the funds drastically. However, the deal between PP and Cs says that measures against gender based violence will have adequate funds. The radical male chauvinists at Vox can't stand this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 03, 2019, 01:26:53 PM
There isn't much data about this poll (does seem to be legit though), but if it's true, I'd be very worried about 2019:

La Nueva España for Asturias regional elections

()

https://asturias24horas.com/derecha-e-izquierda-muy-ajustadas/

By coalition:

PSOE-Podemos-IU: 50.0%
PP-Cs-Foro-Vox: 47.6%
PSOE-Cs: 37.7%

Seems like Foro Asturias (a PP split formerly led by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, development minister under Aznar) is dead in the long run. They might barely survive 2019, but they should really think about rejoining PP (or, considering Foro was originally to the right of PP, join Vox instead).

Vox of course quite high up and Podemos collapses. PP down, but less than expected. Cs rises quite a bit, but not that much, and is only a point above Vox! IU surprisingly stagnant, though I wonder how the Actua thing will work out in the end (IU-Asturias has traditionally been the most anti-Podemos branch, but their leader, Gaspar Llamazares, has split from IU and formed a new party).

As for government formation, the 2 blocks are close while the centrist block is very far from a majority. Asturias actually uses 3 constituencies and I can't find a seat allocation so we just have the numbers to work with (though it shouldn't affect the results that much in Asturias' case, but in other regions it would)

I'd rate Asturias as lean PSOE for now. It's probably one of the very few regions where they are still favoured after the Vox earthquake. However it's definitely not safe and I wouldn't be too surprised if PP ruled here as well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 07, 2019, 11:52:45 AM
Tonight we will get a proper poll (or maybe even 2!). However, today there was a part of the poll released, which in my opinion is very interesting.

What should be the government's response to the Catalan problem?

39%: Apply article 155 again
20%: Propose a new statute of autonomy
14%: Keep talking but without concessions
9%: Do a referendum
18%: Undecided

Party crosstabs

()

In general, PSOE and Podemos are very split while PP, Cs and Vox are mostly unified on "155 4ever!"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 09, 2019, 06:00:20 PM
News in Andalucia: PP and Vox have finally reached an agrement.

This means that Vox will finally vote in favour of Juanma Moreno (PP) as premier of the region.

Interestingly, there has still not been a Vox-Cs direct negotiation, but instead 2 parallel negotiations: PP-Cs to form a coalition government, then PP-Vox (without Cs) to get their support.

In any case, barring a major upset PP will finally oust PSOE of this region.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/09/spanish-conservatives-sign-deal-far-right-vox-party-govern-andalusia/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 11, 2019, 11:42:00 AM
The agreement between PP and Vox is not surprising at all. Vox came out with an extremist 19 point proposal in order to create a shock and get media attention (that's the Steve Bannon's handbook). PP claims Vox demands are "unacceptable", but it doesn't leave the table. Subsequently Vox gives up some of the most unrealistic and extravagant demands (repeal legislation against gender based violence, expel 52000 illegal immigrants) and both parties reach an agreement whitewashing part of the far right agenda. On the other hand, Cs rejects to negotiate with Vox and claims the separate agreement between PP and the far right is a "paper tiger". Vox leader Santiago Abascal mocks the oranges in Twitter calling them a "French party" pledging allegiance to Emperor Macron. Etcetera.

All these moves are largely tinkering.  Pure theater. The deal between the three parties on the right was never in peril. Andalusia is a huge haul and the cordon sanitaire was never on the table.  The Spanish Trumpists will condition the policies of the new Andalusian government because their 12 votes are neccesary to pass legislation.

The editor of eldiario.es Ignacio Escolar analyzed the small print of the agreement between PP and Vox (Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/letra-pequena-acuerdo-PP-Vox_6_855724436.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 16, 2019, 02:15:04 AM
Each new day brings worse results for PSOE. Clear PP-C's-Vox govt, no majority for any government that could be formed based on the Left or Left-center. Most notably, they have Vox winning something in mainland Spain, rather then simply being confined to the African enclaves.

()

()


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2019, 06:13:44 AM
I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 16, 2019, 10:50:21 AM
I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.

For what's worth, even though electomanía is far from a traditional pollster, they were one of the most accurate pollster for the Andalusian elections which everyone got wrong.

They've certainly proven themselves IMO, even if their methodology might be somewhat questionable. Then again they performed polls after the ban, which allowed them to register the last minute Vox surge.

As for everything else yes, the left is heading towards certain defeat, somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. The only silver lining is that Cs might prop up some conservative PSOE premiers (Fernández Vara of Extremadura and García Page of Castille-La Mancha easily come to mind) even if there's a right wing majority and that the right is divided, which hurts it overall, keep in mind that if the right was united under one party (as in the old 2 party system days) 50% would set a new record for a single party, probably beating González's record of 202 seats and 48%; and maybe giving them a 3/5 constitutional majority.

Meanwhile most seat allocations give them "only" around 180-185 seats, which is an overall majority but very far from a 3/5 majority (210). Some even put them outside a majority!

As for the reaction, I don't think feminism will be the only (or even the best IMO) reaction. Other parts of Vox's platform are more controversial for me, like their anti EU stance (Spain is still very much pro EU I think and hope) or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2019, 11:26:24 AM
I think electomania is not a pollster, neither "traditional" nor anything else. I remember years ago that site was a place where election junkies, partisan hacks and some trolls discussed the polls released in Spain (and sometimes international polls, too). I don't know which "methodology" they use (average predictions made by members, pethaps?), but in any case they are not professionals. Maybe they are good making predictions or they are occasionally spotted on, maybe they have access to data from actual pollsters during the last week ban. I don't know. Just saying that it's important to make the distinction between polls and predictions regardless "methodology" (average polling, intuition or whatever). I know that GAD3 (an actial pollster) was working during the last days of the Andalusian campaign and recorded the Vox surge.

The fight for women's rights is going to be very important in the following months, since Vox has made anti-feminism one of its main battle horses. Like it or not, the feminist movement is one of the most important vectors of democracy in the present time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: bigic on January 16, 2019, 12:49:13 PM
Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2019, 01:48:08 PM
Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.

This is the beginning of a new era. It's a tragedy that change in Andalusia comes together the influence of the xenophobic and misogynist Vox. The deal between PP, Cs and the far right was not the only alternative. It's also a shame that career politician Susana Diaz has not resigned yet, as she is the main obstacle to a much needed renewal of the Andalusian PSOE. As for the fake liberals led by Albert Rivera, the opportunistic nature of Cs is portrayed by its association to the likes of Le Pen (take due note of your allies, Beautiful Flawless Macron).

The English version of El País says that Vox made its "maiden speech" yesterday at regional parliament. Isn't it amusing the use of the word "maiden" given the vocal anti-feminism of said party? The amusement, however, ends abruptly when you read the quotes of Francisco Serrano

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/16/inenglish/1547639931_037405.html

Quote
Serrano used his first speech to attack the inclusion of gender perspective in judicial decisions. The former judge said Vox represents the people of Andalusia who want “independent, objective and impartial justice that is not contaminated by the ideological perspective on gender.”

During negotiations with the PP, Vox demanded the repeal of the gender violence law, which it views as biased. The far-right party, which is also against abortion and same-sex marriage, dropped this demand after the PP agreed to incorporate some of its policies on issues such as education, family and historical memory laws.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Skye on January 16, 2019, 02:06:30 PM
Interesting how they show C's winning Madrid and Valladolid. It's such a far cry from the 2016 election PP still wins my home province (Palencia).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 16, 2019, 06:39:11 PM
or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

Do elaborate.

Well, Spain while it's not a fully federalized country it does have a very high level of devolution, with its 17 autonomous communities acting as sort of federal entities but not quite.

One of Vox's star proposals is to basically abolish this and make Spain a centralized country, like say France or England. To quote them directly

Quote
Transform the autonomous State into a unitary State that promotes equality and solidarity instead of privileges and division. A single government and a single parliament for all of Spain. As a previous step: immediate return to the State of Education, Health, Security and Justice limiting as much as possible the regional legislative capacity.

In all fairness, getting rid of autonomous communities as Vox proposes, or even limiting their powers in many cases requires either:

a) A constitutional reform. Abolishing them entirely actually requires the "severe" procedure and not the standard one, it's one of the more protected parts of the constitution

b) The autonomous communities themselves voluntarily relinquishing power. This requires regional supermajorities in most cases (usually 3/5 or 2/3) as it requires reforming (or more precisely, repealing I guess) the "statute of autonomy", sort of its "state constitution". Then the national Congress has to ratify said reform (by an overall majority). Finally in some cases a referendum is required.

So it's probably not happening any time soon.

It does poll fairly well though. According to CIS (a thrash pollster now, but they ask this question every month) 21% of Spaniards support abolishing autonomous communities completely while a further 10% wants their competences cut down.

Worth noting that 13% want more competences (not less) and 11% wants autonomous communities to have the right of self-determination so it's a polarizing issue. Finally 39% want to keep them as they are now and 7% is undecided.

Then again considering this is CIS we are talking about, though the numbers do seem plausible overall.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2019, 08:03:36 PM
The CIS is still good collecting data, regardless the questionable methodology of the vote estimations. Pedro Sánchez made a mistake appointing his close friend Félix Tezanos as the CIS chief pollster. Tezanos is qualified as he is sociologist, but he is also a partisan hack and is destroying the credibility of the sociological institute. In any case the raw data is as good as always and I do give credibility to those figures.  Supporters of re-centralization (either unitary state or less devolution) are increasing and the trend is not new.

As for the Vox proposal to abolish regional autonomy, as said before it's unworkable due to lack of quorum for constitutional reform. However PP is adbovating the re-devolution to central government of healthcare, education and justice (the first step towards the unitary state in the Vox handbook). Cs likely would support re-devolution, so it's possible that a nationalist right wing government will cut devolved powers and regional autonomy. Maybe Aznar or the right wing parties have spme plan already (for sure they have re-devolution mind). PNV is particularly scared with the prospect of a central administration attacking the special tax system of the Basque Country. That's ine of the reasons why the Basque Nationalist Party tried unsuccessfully to moderate Catalan separatists and prevent that Puigdemont was doing stupid things.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2019, 08:19:23 PM
The CIS is an institute of sociological research depending on the Spanish government that conducts polls on a varied range of issues, including elections. The CIS fieldwork is based on face-to-face interviews and is very appreciated by sociologists, pollsters and electoral analysts. Spanish particularity.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 17, 2019, 10:10:45 AM
The Mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena and Iñigo Errejon released this morning a joint letter announcing their alliance. Errejon will run as candidate in the region of Madrid under the Carnena's banner Más Madrid ("More Madrid") instead of the Unidos Podemos banner. Apparently this move has caught Podemos leadership unaware. Currently the negotiations between Carmena and Podemos to put together the list for the municipal elections are stalled. There are differences between Errejon and the Podemos and IU leaderships on the composition of the regional list. Errejon wants his ally Clara Serra (Podemos spokeswoman in the regional parliament) as number two, while the party leaderships agreed that the number two was Sol Sánchez (IU). Podemos keader Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejon began distancing themselves in 2016, due to their differences on the alliance between Podemos and IU. The rift deepened in the party convention held the following year, when Iglesias supporters took control of the party. Today is the 5th anniversary of Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 17, 2019, 03:56:21 PM
Podemos is broken. Pablo Iglesias says he's disappointed with Errejon and Carmena. Podemos leader announced that his party will support Carmena in ther bid for re-election as Mayor of Madrid, but Unidos Podemos will run against Más Madrid and Errejon in the regional elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2019, 10:21:41 AM
Podemos founders part ways

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/18/inenglish/1547798597_841198.html

Quote
On January 17, the fifth anniversary of the creation of Podemos, two of its leading founders publicly confirmed the fracture of the left-wing party.

Íñigo Errejón, a top official at the group that he helped transform from an anti-austerity movement into a national force with parliamentary and institutional presence, on Thursday announced his decision to run for the Madrid regional premiership at the May election in alliance with Más Madrid, the party created by the mayor of the Spanish capital, Manuela Carmena.

Podemos Secretary General Pablo Iglesias said he was “saddened” by the surprise news, and wished Errejón “good luck building his new party.” He also confirmed that Podemos will be running with a candidate of its own at the May election, in direct competition with his former colleague.

Andalusia effect
Errejón’s decision has been influenced by the outcome of last month’s regional election in Andalusia, where the Socialist Party (PSOE) lost its decades-long grip on power to a conservative coalition backed by a far-right party named Vox, which earned 12 seats.


The Podemos-United Left alliance Adelante Andalucía secured 17 seats, compared with a combined 20 when both groups ran separately in 2015.


“Andalusia has been a wake-up call,” said Errejón and Carmena in a joint statement written like an open letter to all residents of Madrid. The new partnership aims to build a project that will “renew citizens’ dreams and faith that things can be done even better.”

“Sad news”
In a message posted via Facebook, Pablo Iglesias – who is currently on paternity leave – said that he never imagined things would turn out this way on the party’s fifth anniversary.

“In politics, one must get used to this type of move, even from your own colleagues, but I admit that I’ve taken a hit, and I feel saddened,” wrote Iglesias in a post. “I could not imagine that today, when we should be celebrating the fifth birthday of Podemos, things would be like this.”

With all due respect, Íñigo is not Manuela

PABLO IGLESIAS

High-ranking Podemos officials said that Errejón will not be formally kicked out of the party, since “he has already placed himself outside of it.” These sources said, however, that Errejón should give up the congressional seat he holds as a Podemos representative.

“With all due respect, Íñigo is not Manuela,” added Iglesias. “I can’t believe that Manuela and Iñigo were concealing the fact that they were working on an electoral project of their own for the Madrid region, and that they made a surprise announcement. Our members deserve more respect than that.”

Madrid Mayor Carmena declined to comment on the internal crisis affecting Podemos, and underscored that she herself is an independent, although she ran for office with a leftist group named Ahora Madrid that included politicians from Podemos.

Carmena said that the differences between herself and Errejón – she is 74, he is 35 – “are a metaphor for what we want for Madrid: different viewpoints that meet in a shared project.”

Personal breakup
The differences between Iglesias and Errejón go back to 2016, when the former decided to join forces with the United Left (IU) in the general election. A few months later, in February 2017, Podemos held a congress to renew the party leadership and Errejón headed a current defending different political goals from those championed by Iglesias, whose views ultimately won out.

Then, in May of last year, Errejón ran in party primaries to find a candidate to the Madrid regional premiership. He won the nomination, but new problems arose when his first choice as a running mate was overlooked and a different person named without his prior knowledge or approval.

With four months to go before Spain holds local and regional elections, Madrid is not the only place where Podemos is running into trouble. In the northwestern region of Galicia, its En Marea coalition is breaking up. In Cantabria, the party is currently headed by an interim management committee. And in Barcelona, primaries will determine whether Podemos runs in the municipal elections with Mayor Ada Colau once again.

In May of last year, Iglesias survived a confidence vote when he put his leadership to the test after being heavily criticized for purchasing a €600,000 country house in Galapagar, a town northwest of Madrid, with his partner Irene Montero.
 

Government change in Andalusia

https://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-andalusia-government-change/

Quote
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists will on Wednesday lose power in their southern stronghold of Andalusia and be replaced by an unprecedented coalition of the conservatives and the liberals with the support of the far right (...)

In a speech presenting his candidacy to lawmakers Tuesday, Moreno Bonilla said: “I’m aware the coalition government which we have agreed between the Popular Party and Ciudadanos doesn’t command the absolute majority of this parliament and that’s why ... I have reached an investiture agreement with Vox, to achieve change and provide stability.”

On Tuesday, thousands of people attended rallies in Seville and other towns and cities across the country organized by feminist groups to protest against the new government under the slogan “not a single step backward.”

Here are five ways in which the new government will change local and national politics (...)

The "five takeaways" are explained in the article.

As for the Podemos breakaway, I'm not sure about this wager. I think the diagnisis made by Íñigo Errejón is correct. The Andalusian outcome shows that it's necessary a revulsive. Also, the broad movement advocated by Errejón seems more attractive to me than the Unidos Podemos formula, which only appeals to the "people of the left" and has proven ineffective (it doesn't appeal a broader base and it doesn't retain all the vote Podemos and IU got separately). But the Podemos implosion might end in disaster and eventually in the demise of the Spanish Left, following preceding catastrophes in France and Italy.  I wish all the best to Carmena and Errejón: they have all my sympathy. But I'm worried too...



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 19, 2019, 10:20:43 AM
Errejon and his supporters claim the crisis can be solved and a new deal is possible, but Podemos leadership says the bridges are broken beyond repair. On the other hand, IU spokeswoman in Madrid says the deal beteeen Podemos and her organization is broken and it's urgent and necessary a new one to run in regional snd local elections. Podemos has no candidate for regional elections at this moment, but a logical option could be regional drcretary Ramón Espinar. On the fence, the PSOE observes with perplexity and concern. The collapse of Podemos wouldn't help the socialists.

As for the municipality of Madrid, Podemos will not run against Manuela Carmena, but refuses to support her campaign and to psrticipate in her list. IU is considering to run against Carmena in the city (very likely according to eldiario.es),  but nothing is decided. The Anticapitalist faction of Podemos, always very critic of Carmena, calls to organize a list.

Ignacio Escolar analyzes what is likely the last battle between Iglesias and Errejon. It is very difficult to redirect the situation

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/claves-ruptura-Iglesias-Errejon_6_858524171.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 21, 2019, 08:11:13 AM
El Español released a rare "estimation" for the Spanish Senate

()

If wondering, the Senate is mostly elected through limited block voting, with a small appointed part.

In each of the 48 provinces in the Spanish mainland, 4 candidates are elected, with voters getting 3 votes (the most common arrangement is thus 3 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the "major islands" of Gran Canaria, Tenerife and Mallorca, 3 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (thus the most common arrangement is 2 for the winner-1 for the runner-up)

In the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, 2 candidates are elected, with voters getting 2 votes (so, FPTP but with more candidates)

In the "minor islands" of La Palma, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, Menorca and Ibiza-Formentera (who form a single constituency); 1 candidate is elected with voters getting 1 vote (so, standard FPTP)

Finally, after each regional election, each autonomous community appoints 1 senator, plus another senator for every 1 million people, in a proportional manner. This means that Vox now has 1 senator appointed for Andalucia. Since a majority of the appointed senators will be elected in May 2019 they didn't include the appointed senators.

In any case, it seems PP will very much lose its majority, with PSOE becoming the largest party in the Senate for the first time since 1995! (when they lost their plurality after the 1995 regional elections)

The Senate map can and will change a lot based on very minor vote changes so I'd take it as just a curiosity, I could see anything from a huge PSOE majority to a hung Senate, depending on the vote splitting.

In any case the Spanish Senate is very weak as it can only delay laws for about 1 month. It does have 2 places where it's important: Constitutional ammendments and most importantly, activating article 155 in Catalonia (the direct rule article), which requires Senate approval. So in theory under this estimation, PSOE could block article 155 if they feel it's unjustified.

As for the estimation itself, it seems about right, though I will say that there are 2 seats missing, one for CC in El Hierro and one for ASG (small local party, PSOE split) in La Gomera. Both should be safe seats for each.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 21, 2019, 09:13:11 AM
Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2019, 11:35:17 AM
Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).

Podemos leadership claims that Errejón is already gone, but I think this is an excuse. Errejón is not like the six councilors who decided to run in the Más Madrid local primaries and were suspended from membership, on request of the Podemos local branch. He is one of the founding members of Podemos ("I couldn't leave, even if I wanted. It runs in my blood"). Expelling him would be tragic and costly, so Iglesias and his supporters prefer to say that Errejón is no longer member because he left for Más Madrid. It's up to see what happens with the members of the Errejón faction if they participate in Más Madrid, besides the suspended councilors (Rita Maestre and the others) and the rest of territorial branches. In case Podemos leadership persists in saying the bridges are broken, the party could be on the verge of collapse. Errejón says that he made the "correct" and not the "comfortable" decision. He resigns the seat in Congress to  de-escalate the situation (first he said that he would resign"immediately" on formal request, but Iglesias supporters said it was his decision suggesting that he should go) and hopes that Podemos leadership "reconsiders" (he said this weekend that Iglesias' leadership is "conformist") and the party joins the broader platform of Más Madrid.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2019, 10:45:06 AM
Podemos secretary in Madrid, Ramon Espinar, resigns office and his seat in Senate and Regional Assembly. Despite he is a close ally of Pablo Iglesias, Espinar disagrees with the Podemos leader on the course for the crisis and opposes running a list against Errejón in the regional election. This move shows the Pablo Iglesias faction is not a stony and immovable block. There are voices calling for a joint list with Más Madrid. On the other hand, some regional secretaries (including Basque Country and Murcia, alligned with Errejón) met in Toledo and made a release calling for "confidence, unity, coordination and negotiation". No one from the national leadership attended the meeting.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 27, 2019, 05:58:30 PM
RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)

()

Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 27, 2019, 06:26:47 PM
RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)

()

Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on January 27, 2019, 06:27:31 PM
More polling:

Hamalgama–Ágora Integral poll: (never heard of them)

22.5% PP, 84/86 seats
21.2% PSOE, 74/78
19.3% UP, 62/65
18.2% C's, 67/70
   8.7% Vox, 28/29
   2.5% ERC, 8
   2.0% PNV, 7
   1.8% PDeCAT, 4/5
   0.6% Bildu, 2
   0.2% CC, 0/1
   3.0% Others

NC Report poll:

24.2% PSOE, 98 seats
24.0% PP, 99
18.7% C's, 64
16.6% UP, 48
   9.4% Vox, 18

KeyData/Público poll:

22.3% PSOE, 98 seats
21.5% PP, 89
19.8% C's, 67
14.8% UP, 51
10.3% Vox, 18
   3.1% ERC, 12
   1.6% PDeCAT, 6
   1.1% PNV, 6
   0.9% Bildu, 2
   0.3% CC, 1
   4.3% Others
  
Don't understand the seat projection from KeyData. I would assume PP would be ahead by 1 or 2 seats or basically tied with PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 27, 2019, 07:58:16 PM
Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 27, 2019, 08:08:24 PM
Regarding the other polls:

Hamalgama-Ágora Integral is a pollster most commonly used by the regional Canarian newspapers La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife (in fact it was published in these newspapers). They rarely publish polls and when they do it's almost always for regional elections. So I'm surprised to see them make a national poll

As for the seat allocation in the Público poll, I don't think it's that weird. The PSOE-PP gap there is 0.8%, with a 9 seat gap. For comparison in 1996 PP beat PSOE by 1.2% and got a larger gap of 15 seats. Seems ok with me.



More likely is that VOX at least for now has peaked, and voters are now moving from VOX->PP.

Anyway this poll suggests that thre is a light in the tunnel for PSOE, if they want to keep government. If Podemos keeps committing Seppuku, then their voters will migrate to mostly PSOE, maybe some minors/Catalan nats/C's depending on the location. That might get them above 50.

I'm very skeptical that the Catalans would prop up Sánchez again. If they don't even support his budget, why would they support his government?

The only way for Sánchez to stay in power is with a PSOE+Cs deal (assuming Cs is even willing to do that, though they aren't allergic to supporting PSOE, they are certainly not a fan of Sánchez)

Of all the polls none really give PSOE any chance of forming a government.

Sorry, if wasn't clear, by them I meant PSOE+C's. If Podemos are truly imploding, then the amount of options available to a left-wing voter are limited, which may breath new life into the Red-Orange Govt. Right now though, that option isn't available.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2019, 10:10:58 PM
RIP Podemos. Press F to pay respects. According to a new poll by GAD3 (generally the best performing pollster)

()

Apparently their recient problems have hurt them a lot. Also the Vox surge seems to be over (for now at least) stabilizing around 10-11%. PSOE rises a bit thanks to former Podemos voters and PP rises because of them getting the Andalusian government or something.



It seems that as Podemos support goes down over the last few month that support should flow to PSOE.  It seems if anything that support if flowing to VOX.  It could be the flows are more complex then that. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 28, 2019, 06:41:09 AM
The amount of voters that PSOE can recover from Podemos is limited. There are former PSOE voters among the 5 million who voted Podemos in 2015 and 2016, but also: young voters, abstentionists, alternative left supporters and peripheral nationalists. Some of these groups are very unlikely to back PSOE. In case Podemos collapses, many disillusioned voters would go to abstention. Actually that poll suggests a massive abstention of left-wing voters, even a worse scenario than the outcome of the Andalusian elections. It's worth noting that the increase in raw numbers of the parties right of the centre was very small in Andalusia. The result was more the consequence of 700,000 left-wing voters staying at home. On the other hand, this fluctuation is logical given the apparent implosion of Podemos. Depending on how the crisis evolves, Podemos may recover or collapse definitely. There are other possibilities, such as the surge of a new party in the left. The bold move of Carmena and Errejón in Madrid may end being a revulsive or a catastrophe. The months before the May elections will be very long. It's nearly impossible to predict the outcome now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 28, 2019, 07:39:48 AM
Yeah, an interesting thing is the relation between turnout and left wing votes.

The Spanish left has only won once with turnout below 70% (in 1989, with 69.9% turnout; I'm not counting 2016 as a win).

I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 28, 2019, 09:07:47 AM
Podemos leadership reconsiders after the resignation of Ramón Espinar. Spokeswoman in Congress Irene Montero, who is acting as interim leader while her partner Pablo Iglesias is on paternity leave, says that Podemos will talk with Errejón  before the elections. In the days following the release of the joint letter of Carmena and Errejón, Montero stated that the bridges were broken. There is division in Podemos between the supporters of a deal with Errejón (unitary list) and the supporters of running against Más Madrid in coalition with IU. Some people in Podemos think that running against Errejón would be a "suicide", but there are hardliners opposed to a deal with the "traitor" and Pablo Iglesias has been looking unsuccessfully for an independent on the top of a rival list. The negotiations will be complicated in any case.


I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).

Disagree. We can't go back to 2008 pretending that the global crisis, its harsh impact in Spain and the 15M movement never happened. Podemos was born as the heir party of said movement and all the people coming from there (the "Futurless Youth") is not likely to back PSOE. Because of this and because the PSOE's strategy is trying to occupy the centre (deserted by Cs and PP), the total collapse of Podemos is not in the PSOE's interest.

The result in Andalusia was the combination of a depressed left wing turnout with a high mobilization of right wing voters. Additionally, there was a reconfiguration of the space right of the centre: PP losing ground, Cs increasing and the Vox surge


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Skye on January 29, 2019, 06:47:12 AM
Hey, I found this on Twitter:



How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 29, 2019, 08:29:09 AM
Hey, I found this on Twitter:



How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.

I guess you are referring to the Invymark poll for Telemadrid. The pollster is OK, but the sample size is way too small (only 400) and the margin of error higher than usual.

Anyway Madrid looks like an uphill battle for the left, even with an exceptional candidate like Manuela Carmena. She is a good mayor who has reduced the nunicipal debt left by the PP administrations, as well she has implemented good policies on environment and citizen participation (among others). I think her list will come first easily (the right wing vote is splitted in three), but it will be difficult to repeat the left-wing majority in a city that leans to the right and in the present circumstances. On the other hand, Begoña Villacis won't hesitate in replicating the Triple Alliance of Andalusia. However,  Carmena is the only one who can replicate the 2015 miracle. She needs a big mobilization of left-wing and progressive voters. It's going to be very hard, but not imposible


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on January 29, 2019, 10:23:45 AM
Uphill battle is putting it lightly IMO. Madrid is close to being a lost cause (a shame, Carmena is genuinely popular and probably the best Podemos mayor, but Madrid is just too conservative). 

The only way for Carmena to be reelected is if Cs, PP and Vox fail to reach an agreement, in that case she automatically becomes mayor 2 months after the election or something like that. But barring a very weak minority government or something weird like Cs supporting Carmena I don't think she survives.

I do agree Carmena is the only hope (even if it's a very faint one). Also, keep in mind that PSOE in Madrid city has pretty much disappeared, it wouldn't be unthinkable (although it's unlikely) that PSOE falls below the 5% threshold.

Remember we are headed for a right wing landslide (if we believe polling); somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. I don't know how many mayors are hopless causes but for reference we could look at the 2011 defeat as a worst case scenario:

Back in 2011 out of the 104 municipalities that are provincial capitals or have a population over 75000; the left held 22 for PSOE; 1 for Bildu, 1 for BNG and 1 for a tiny, probably local party (the Greens in Orihuela); for a total of 25 left wing mayors.

Currently out of the 107 muncipalities with the same specifications, the left holds 44 for PSOE, 7 for Podemos, 3 for IU, 1-2 for a tiny or local parties (the Greens in Torrevieja and maybe MCC in Cartagena), 1 for ERC, 1 for NCa, 1 for BNG, 1 for Compromís, 1 for Bildu for a total of 60-61 left wing mayors.

So I'd say that around 15 big city mayors will lose. And the most likely ones are the ones that have tiny majorities to begin with (like Carmena)

Anyways the poll seems good, it's not an internal and the result is believable but with a small sample and a big margin of error.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 29, 2019, 11:56:48 AM
Carmena is not a Podemos mayor: she is an independent who was backed by Podemos. She always remarks her independence from party structures and this is one of her main assets, besides her competence and many other personal qualities (sorry, I'm a bit of a fan and this is not usual in me). Currently she's allied with a dissident of that party and her relationship with the Podemos leadership is frozen. Furthermore, all the Podemos councilors are suspended from membership: at this moment the Pablo Iglesias party is not part of the local government. If Carnena was the typical candidate with a party affiliation, I would say she's done and has no chance at all. Given that she's exceptional and she's an independent who can appeal a broader base, I think there's still a small ray of light. Anyway it's more likely that Begoña Villacis becomes the next mayor with the support of PP and the far right VOX. At least that's what the polls say. Often predictions hold true, but sometimes there's room for surprise. In 2015 Carmena was polling a distant second behind Aguirre, but the campaign boosted her popularity (she was little known before) and came very close on election night.

Indeed, we are heading to a right wing nationalist majority according to the polls. It'd be depressing if it wasn't for the extreme volatility of the political situation. If we go a little time back, we could remember that Podemos was sunken in the polls months before the 2015 general rlections (Cs boosted after its success in the Catalonia), in which the purple party got more than 20% from the scratch and was the moral victor. Pedro Sánchez was deemed a corpse when he was ousted from party leadership and he is now the PM...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 30, 2019, 12:55:45 AM
Former coach of the Spanish basketball team Pepu Hernández is the candidate picked by Pedro Sánchez to run for the mayoralty of Madrid. Hernández coached the national team that won the 2006 World Championship in Japan. He was also the coach of Estudiantes, a team based in Madrid. Pedro Sánchez  is a big fan of basketball and played in Estudiantes as a teenager, from there their friendship. Hernández is an independent. At first he will have to run in the primary election scheduled on March 9 and there's another candidate who wants the nomination: Manuel de la Rocha, a member of the left wing faction. PSOE senior figures like Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Cristina Narbona, as well as Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, had previously rejected to run in Madrid. The PSOE faces difficulties in the city of Madrid after four years in the shadow of Carmena, supporting her investiture as mayor without taking place in local government. PSOE spokeswoman in Madrid relativized the value of the last poll placing socialists in 5th position behind Vox, saying that the margin of error is huge and it was conducted before "political events that have modified reality": alliance between Carmena and  Errejón, outbreak of the Podemos crisis.

Confirmed candidates so far:

Manuela Carmena (Más Madrid)
Begoña Villacís (Ciudadanos)
José Luis Martínez Almeida (PP)



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 31, 2019, 05:15:26 AM
Fresh poll for the Madrid regional election

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/candidatura-Errejon-superaria-Podemos-gobernar_0_862664557.html

PSOE 21.4% 30 seats
PP 20 8% 29 seats
Cs 19.2% 27 seats
Más Madrid 10.5% 15 seats
Podemos 9% 12 seats
Vox 8.4% 12 seats
IU 5.3% 7 seats

Triple Alliance (PP-Cs-Vox) 48.4% 68 seats
Left (PSOE, Más Madrid,  Podemos, IU) 46.2% 64 seats

Some people begins to speculate on the 'Big Centre' or 'Macron' alliance between PSOE, Cs and Más Madrid (51.1% 72 seats). I don't see it at this stage, but who knows...

There was a meeting of the Podemos' Citizen Council yesterday. It's the equivalent of an executive committee and there is a majority of Pablo Iglesias supporters (Iglesias 37, Errejon 23, Anticapitalistas 2). Iglesias is on paternity leave and participated telematically. Previously he posted a long text in Facebook. Iglesias wrote that he's hurt and upset  but, despite everything, Errejon is not a traitor and he must be an ally. This means Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle consider Errejon is not in Podemos anymore, but they acknowledge a deal with Más Madrid on a joint list is necessary. Errejon didn't attend in order to avoid conflict, after Irene Montero said she preferred that Errejon was not present in the council meeeting. Other members of the Errejon faction attended anyway. The council agreed a route map for alliances. Podemos will hold primaries first, then there will be a negotiation with 'preferent partners' IU and Equo. The negotiation between Unidos Podemos and Más Madrid would be the last step...

The rift between Iglesias abd Errejon is very deep and possibly IU is going to play an important role in the negotiations for a joint list


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 01, 2019, 04:40:30 AM
Celeste-Tel poll for the Madrid local elections

Más Madrid 28.4% 18 councilors (-2)
PP 21.9% 13 councilors (-8)
Cs 21.8% 13 councilors (+6)
PSOE 13.7% 8 councilors (-1)
VOX 8.2% 5 councilors (+5)
IU 2.3% nc (-)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Carmena-elecciones-Madrid-PSOE-Ciudadanos_0_863014431.html



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 02, 2019, 07:48:16 PM
NC-Report poll for the Community of Madrid: (http://electomania.es/nc-report-comunidad-de-madrid-caida-del-pp-errejon-dobla-a-podemos-que-es-sorpassado-por-vox/)

21.3% PP, 31 seats
20.4% PSOE, 30
18.9% C's, 27
13.2% Más Madrid, 19
10.4% Vox, 15
  7.4% UP, 10
  8.4% Others

Invymark poll for la Sexta TV: (http://electomania.es/invymark-para-la-sexta-el-psoe-sigue-primero-y-vox-supera-claramente-el-10/)

23.9% PSOE, 96 seats
21.3% PP, 91
20.9% C's, 76
13.5% UP, 35
11.2% Vox, 28
  9.4% Others, 24

CIS poll: (lol)

29.9% PSOE
17.7% C's
15.4% UP
14.9% PP
  6.5% Vox
  4.7% ERC
  1.7% PACMA
  1.3% PNV
  1.1% Bildu
  1.0% PDeCAT
  0.2% CC
  5.6% Others


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 03, 2019, 08:16:08 AM
Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2019, 08:36:11 AM
Regarding the polls yeah, forget about the CIS poll, it's totally rigged. Probably a terrible decision on Sánchez's part.

In any case, they all just confirm what we knew. At the national level PSOE is favoured to be the largest party but the right will probably get a majority so who cares. The big question is whether PSOE+Cs is possible or not. Right now it seems they will fail but maybe they'll rise in the future?

Same for the Madrid poll except there's a 3 way tie for first there. In any case I rate Madrid Lean Cs as of now, though I guess I should move it to a PP-Cs tossup

The CIS debacle is just ridiculous. Anyway, i think that, in the future, a PSOE/C's coalition may be possible, but currently i think Sanchéz is an impossible pill for many C's voters to swallow. If, in the future, a more centrist/moderate PSOE leader emerges, C's could find themselves more "cozy" with PSOE rather than with PP.

The Spanish 2019 elections will probably be one of the most unpredictable ever. In many cities and communities there is a very close 3 way race between PSOE/PP/C's and a huge surge of Vox.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2019, 08:42:51 AM
If after an national election a PSOE+C majority is possible but so is a PP+C+VOX what would be C's preference?  I assume what you guys are saying is it depends on if Sánchez is the PSOE PM candidate or someone else?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 03, 2019, 08:52:31 AM
If both were possible, I think Cs would go with PSOE+Cs, even if Sánchez remained as PM. They might not like it, but I don't think they will have enough strength to take him down.

In fact I wonder if both are possible if PNV would back PSOE+Cs as a "lesser of 2 evils" and/or if UPN (a Navarra unionist party) would back it, splitting from PP

I'd argue Sánchez's biggest threat to him losing power when he could remain would be an internal party coup. I guess that will depend on how the party does after the regional elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 03, 2019, 09:05:32 AM
Yeah, i agree that the 2019 May elections will be critical for Sanchéz permanence in power, but, UP's results may have a big influence now. Electomania, i know they are not a legit pollester, made a poll for the EU elections that shows PP very low, Vox well ahead of UP and PSOE and C's neck and neck.

Could the implosion of UP force Sanchéz to turn to the right in order to please C's voters/politicians and gain their support?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2019, 10:16:57 AM
But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 03, 2019, 10:28:44 AM
But given C's position on Catalonia would not they prefer PP's hardline position?  Or will PSOE shift to a hardline position on Catalonia to get C onboard since given the assumed implosion of Podemos there will no longer be a need to care about Podemos's position on Catalonia?

I don't think PSOE would need to shift, hypothetical negotiations between C's and PSOE would feature some red-lines in that regard. PSOE wouldn't have to change, but their government would have to accept a anti-Catalonia and centralist position.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 05, 2019, 06:31:52 AM
I would challenge the notion that Pedro Sánchez is a radical leftist, or something. Albert Rivera is far from being a moderate, particularly in what regards the delicate territorial question. PSOE and Cs, with Sánchez and Rivera as leaders, already signed a deal in 2016. I won't say a similar deal is impossible in the near future, but the context (Venezuela crisis, Podemos implosion) favours the reactionary triple alliance.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 05, 2019, 02:02:39 PM
The trial versus the Catalan separatist leaders starts next week, on Tuesday 12. They are accused of serious offences such as rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. The trial will have a deep impact in Spanish politics and I'm afraid it's going to poison the already strained environment. To make things even worse, the far right will have a protagonic role. VOX secretary general Javier Ortega Smith will represent the private prosecution. It could be a formidable propagandistic weapon for the Spanish extreme reactionaries. The trial will have as well a huge emotional burden and it will affect the next moves of the Catalan nationalists, conditioned by the rivalry between ERC and the heirs of Convergència. The trial will highlight the role of ERC leader Oriol Junqueras at the expense of Carles Puigdemont. Junqueras is jailed and facing a harsh punishment, while Puigdemont lives comfortably at his Waterloo mansion in his self-enforced Belgian 'exile'.

In this context, the strategy of the Pedro Sánchez government to make a series of symbolic gestures in order to favour dialogue may end in failure if the Catalan separatist parties reject the budget plan. This would lead inevitably to elections (either in May or in autumn) and pave the way to a right wing majority promising to implement a tough policy in Catalonia. The following is worth reading

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/05/inenglish/1549354707_947579.html

Quote
For years, former Popular Party (PP) Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy heard the same mantra. It came not only from supporters of Catalan independence, but also from other sectors in the northeastern region and indeed across Spain: “Make a move, engage in politics.” That was the advice he was given when it came to how he should deal with the secessionist drive in Catalonia, a movement that culminated in 2017 with an illegal referendum and a subsequent declaration of independence in the regional parliament.

Plagued by corruption cases in his party, Rajoy was ousted from power in the summer of 2018, thanks to a motion of no confidence won by Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE). Since he has been prime minister, Sánchez has been promising to seek “political solutions to a political problem” when it comes to Catalonia. An additional problem that Sánchez faces, however, is that he relies on the support of pro-independence parties in Congress to get anything done – the PSOE counts on just 84 seats in Spain’s lower house, with 176 votes needed for a majority in the 350-seat chamber.

Eight months after Sánchez came to power, all of the efforts that have been made by the government to improve the situation with Catalonia, and decisions taken in spite of their political cost – including a draft budget that is very favorable to the region – could serve for nothing if, in the end, the pro-Catalan independence groups Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT) vote against the budget plan on February 13 (...)

 



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 09, 2019, 08:36:00 AM
Spanish government breaks talks with Catalan separatists

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/08/inenglish/1549635276_414422.html

Quote
(...) The announcement comes in the wake of a political storm in Spain over the government’s recent decision to accept having an observer at cross-party talks that were scheduled in the coming days.

It is unclear what this figure, which has been described as a cross between a rapporteur, a mediator and a notary, would have been tasked with doing at the talks, but the opposition said it was a concession to the Catalan separatists, who have repeatedly asked for international mediation.

On Wednesday, the Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the far-right Vox party said they would call a street demonstration in Madrid this coming Sunday to protest the move and “throw out” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2019, 07:53:55 AM
Mass rally against Sanchéz and for the calling of fresh elections in Madrid, today: (https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/10/5c5ff11afc6c83d9638b4620.html)

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General view of the protest in Madrid.

The number of people in the rally is disputed. The government says 45,000, while organizers say 200,000. Looking at the pictures, i would say something in the middle. The rally was called by PP and C's after Sanchéz deal with the Catalans, that only lasted 3 days. Vox also was present in the rally.

What's the chance of general elections being held in May? Things look quite grim for Sanchéz.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 10, 2019, 07:58:07 AM
Yes, they look very grim. The final nail in the coffin will happen this Wednesday, when the budget is rejected by Congress.

After that who knows. Sánchez might try to simply rule by decrees, there's no alternative majority to oust him. However his rule by decree would become very unpopular very fast I think.

On the other hand elections in May are also a bad option and most PSOE figures reject them in order not to contaminate local elections with national ones. However it might also increase turnout.

In any case, there will be an election this year, the question is if it will happen in May on a "Mega Sunday", or after the Summer. (or less likely in another date, like say June or April)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mike88 on February 10, 2019, 08:12:30 AM
So, it seems Sanchéz is completely trapped right now. Governing by decree in a parliamentary system is impossible, unless you are a caretaker. And elections, according to all indications, will be nightmare for PSOE. Quite a very difficult situation Spain is in right now.  

Like you said, elections are inevitable. Either it's a "Super Sunday" on May, or, it could be possible, an "Iberian Sunday" with general election in Spain and Portugal on October 6.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 10, 2019, 08:31:47 AM
Keep in mind that Sánchez has already been ruling by decree for the most part, his government has been extremely ineffective.

The Spanish government does have the right to unilaterally pass decrees, though they must go to Congress after 1 month at most to be accepted or retracted.

And Congress forcing decree retragting is extremely rare. Since 1977 it has happened only 4 times (though 2 have been on this parliamentary term alone).

It would be unpopular, sets a bad precedent and might offer legal challenges, but rule by decree is an option. It's not like the opposition could pass a no confidence vote either (PP+Cs are short by 7; they could get CC's lonely MP, but they still need 6 more and there are no more real viable partners)

I do think Sánchez will eventually call an election for October at the latest, but that's still 8 months from now.

And the election won't be necesarily bad for PSOE itself, they are looking at being the largest party (narrowly) and rising slightly above their dysmal 2016 results. The problem is for the left at large, and especially for Podemos.  A PP-Cs-Vox majority looks almost certain, and even if it didn't add up the most likely result would be a repeat election, not another minority Sánchez government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on February 11, 2019, 03:19:32 AM
I think there is some consensus on the right wing demonstration that took place in Madrid yesterday. It's been a failure or an underperformance for the reactionary tripartite. In the picture below you can spot Vox leader Santiago Abascal (bearded man 3rd from the left), Javier Maroto (a gay member of PP standing besides a homophobe), PP leader Pablo Casado and Cs leader Albert Rivera (right)

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https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/11/inenglish/1549869663_014812.html

Quote
The leaders of three of Spain’s right wing parties managed to bring out tens of thousands of people on Sunday to Madrid’s central Colón square, to protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and demand that the Socialist Party (PSOE) politician call elections as soon as possible.

The conservative Popular Party (PP), center-right group Ciudadanos (Citizens) and far-right newcomer Vox attracted flag-waving crowds of 45,000 people, according to the central government delegate in the Spanish capital, although the organizers put the figure as high as 200,000.

The manifesto that had been agreed between the three groups accused the prime minister of having “betrayed” Spain by accepting 21 demands of pro-independence groups in the northeastern Spanish region of Catalonia. That is despite the fact that the central government last week broke off negotiations with the pro-secessionist groups due to their demands ahead of planned cross-party talks to address the issue of the ongoing independence drive.

BBC News: "Madrid mass protest over talks policy"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47190135


In my opinion Pablo Casado has reached intolerable levels of rhetoric agresiveness, launching a lot of fallacious arguments (for instance PP leader claims that Pedro Sánchez accepted the 21 demands of a letter the Catalan premier sent to him, which is false). Casado appeals to the lowest instincts and shows a reckless disregard of truth in a desperate attempt to contain the losses to Vox. The far right party is conditioning the PP discourse and setting the agenda. This is not a good thing for the conservatives, neither for the country. Among the many insults and hyperboles, I have read "stab in the back". If you are familiar to German history (a hundred years ago), you'll now what I'm talking about. The Spanish Right is reactionary. On the ither hand, it's remarkable that Albert Rivera is in the same picture as Santiago Abascal; the equivalent of Macron and Le Pen attending the same demonstration in Paris.  There is a reason why Rivera has no issue with that anymore: Venezuela.  I think Cs leader can no longer sustain that he is a moderate centrist.

The situation of the Pedro Sánchez government is dire. Even though Sánchez saved the day and is still alive (maybe his "Survival Handbook" explains how), he might be tempted to call elections in May, putting all eggs in one basket. The ball is in the court of Catalan separatist parties. Passing the buget means some economic relief and much needed investments in Catalonia. Voting against could be paving the way for the right wing parties and their iron pills: indefinite suspension of regional autonomy and implementation of a state of emergency in Catalonia (probably unconstitutional measures). The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders is around the corner and this makes things terribly complicated. Spanish labyrinth, more than ever



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 11, 2019, 08:05:04 AM
Speaking of elections, PM Sánchez has threatened the secessionists with a snap election for the 14th of April if they refuse to pass his budget.

If he were to call it, he would call it some time next week (by law there have to be 54 days between an election being called and the actual election date).

I don't think the secessionists will cave, so let's see if the threat actually materializes or not. There's also the possibility of a Super Sunday but the PSOE leadership doesn't want that.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/11/5c615eeefdddffd78c8b45de.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Former President tack50 on February 12, 2019, 10:22:10 AM
The trial against the Catalan politicians in prison has begun today.

The Corporació Catalana de Mitjans Audiovisuals (CCMA); the regional government owned TV and Radio broadcaster in Catalonia, has released a very interesting guide to the trial in English, detailing who exactly are the accused, the accusation, the judges and the prosecutors; what the accusations are; how the trial will proceed and how we got here in the first place

https://www.ccma.cat/324/keys-catalan-independence-trial/

This is an extremely valuable resource, even if the information is probably biased. CCMA/TV3 is owned by the Catalan government and has been repeatedly accused of misinformation and manipulation of facts.