Talk Elections

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Survey USA on 2014-11-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13220141102019)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 47%, I: 5%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=71c1602b-e3e0-4fe5-9d51-b2175b6139e4)

That smile that crept across my face just now though...

Nunn ran a great race. Maybe next time. (I do think it's still going to a runoff though - which she should lose.)

Poll has blacks at 26% of the electorate with Nunn at 29% with whites. Even in 2010, blacks made up 28% of the electorate. Given the early voting numbers, they will make up 30% of the electorate tomorrow. So according to this poll, Nunn is favored to win outright, which is glorious news!

Just wait. I mean, KCDem is right to an extent...unless the coordinated campaigns and the DPG have done the job of the century in turning out a disproportionate number of black voters who would have normally voted on Election Day (unlikely, as my ATL connections suggest that the DPG wasn't even aware of how much black turnout was surging throughout early voting during the final week until the end), we're looking at a 30-32% black electorate when all is said and done.

If blacks are at 32% and Nunn gets 29% of whites, she wins a majority.

Let's hope you are right and she wins outright tomorrow.  Otherwise, it's going to be tough--I think her only chance of winning in the runoff (which I believe is likely) will happen if the GOP can assure the 51 majority (either tomorrow night or after the Louisiana runoff).  And even then it will be difficult.

She has run a great race (as has Carter)--and I did not expect either of them to be in the game this late in the contest. 

The fact that Warner's race never got competitive and that Hagan has been the one "threatened" incumbent to consistently hold a small lead in the polls is why Nunn may still do well tomorrow. Whatever is happening among the electorate as a whole, the African-American vote in the coastal southeast is a bright spot for Dems.

What's the news? This race has been all but certain to go to runoff for weeks now, and Perdue's chances in the runoff are very good (and almost a given if Senate control comes down to LA and GA).

Even assuming that uptick and that the EV advantage lasts through election day, you'd likely be getting a runoff. (Basically take the Perdue numbers and adjust 2-3%).

At this point, it's still likely a runoff. Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved slightly, Nunn's have fallen.

^^^Because I'm an "independent" from NY and I said so!

Plus he's, y'know, correct.

Sorry dude, there is very little hackery there with that analysis. Look at the recent polling.

R+3, R+4, Tie, R+2, R+2.

Even when Nunn was up, I've stated you're probably going to need a +4 from either candidate in polling to get a past a runoff. The Libertarian is good for 2-3 points, historically.

Any "adjustments" based on the difference in black early vote doesn't get you to a runoff-proof D lead.

I'm pretty sure 538 would conclude that the runoff chances could be slightly less than 70% now (and not by much), Perdue's chances of avoiding the runoff have improved and Nunn's chances of avoiding a runoff have fallen.

I'm sorry but the polling has bee junk everywhere so I'm sorry if I trust campaign modeling over junk public polling. Nunn's camp and the DSCC are confident they can get over 50% tomorrow.

Actually, like I said above, with a 32% black electorate and 29% white support for Nunn, there is no run-off. Not saying that's absolutely likely right now, but still within the range of possibilities based on what early voting stats have shown.

Ah, well that settles it then. D+1.

Bro, even the RSCC and Perdue are panicking. Nunn is very likely to win outright.

Stop your trolling. Nunn does not have anywhere near an 80,90% chance of winning outright.

This is going to a runoff. Enough said.

Haha your delusional hackery knows no bounds, we'll see how you feel tomorrow night...

DOMINATED!

RSCC?

You mean NRSC.

In which case you're accusing Nate Silver of hackery as well:


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-chance-of-holding-on-continues-to-fall/

Now that Silver has joined the Beltway he is no longer objective. Narrative 100% truth be damned.

May I also remind you that Silver is bad at calling senate races.

OK KC, your once somewhat more amusing than annoying act is rapidly growing stale.

Funny, I though Silver joined ESPN so he could model sports, too. We all know the centre of the ESPN universe is the Yankee/Red Sox world. Certainly not the Beltway.

Some people do not realize when certain posters are just trying to push buttons.

Oh I recognize it. It's much more entertaining responding back though.

Ditto. Amusement, not "obsession", has always been my motivation.

Though KC borders the "better off ignored" category.