Talk Elections

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/31/us-usa-elections-iowa-idUSKBN0IK00N20141031?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Braley 45
Ernst 45

Stupendous news! Looks like Ernst will soon be going the way of Bailey's neighbors' chickens.

How good is Ipsos? I'll wait for another (decent) pollster to confirm this.

Glorious news! Ernst is toast!

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I don't take a tie as great news. PPP with Bailey up outside the MOE will be.

When a tie with a veritable fruit-cake is a good thing... ugh.

But it's still positive, will definitely want more verification before I see it as more than white noise.

Hopefully Ernst finds some of those chickens Bailey chased out of his yard to trade for checkups, because she'll soon be unemployed.

According to Fairfax (Australian newspaper who are now hiring Ipsos for Australian polling - Ipsos are an international firm rather than just an American one), "Ipsos’ 2008 US presidential poll was regarded as the most accurate of the 22 covering the election that brought Barack Obama to power".

So you can't completely toss it in the junk.

This is a tragedy. Braley is a professional while Ernst is a full-on prole, almost a caricature really. If this was a house race (like the battle of mediocrities that is IA-03) it wouldn't be a big deal. But this is a six year deal. If Ernst entrenches herself like Grassley, it may take desperate measures (plant black tar heroin in her office) to get rid of her.

But yes, I'm still waiting for PPP.

Does Ipsos have a ridiculous republican bias?

From the last paragraph of the linked article:

So whatever you think of YouGov's polls should probably apply here.  Personally, I see Internet polling as the wave of the future and don't discount it.

That's irrelevant. Ernst cannot win.

I remember Ipsos(-Reid) in my province was an epic fail. Not relevant, I know :P

The reason YouGov is discounted is because they poll the same people over and over again (therefore, not a random sample). As far as I know, Ipsos has never polled this race before, so it isn't a problem.

Yougov isn't junk because they poll online, but because they poll the same people over and over again.

Bruce has got the juice. He will prevail on Tuesday.

Interesting. Could the Democrats be making a final last stand?

I'd like to see the internals and crosstabs of this internet poll before making any determination on that. Either they do these type of internet polls right and are reputable or they are wrought with errors like the You Gov process, which seems not quite perfected.

You'd think internet polls would skew younger and would thus be more favorable to the Democrats, just like land line only polls would skew older and more Republican.

I remain pretty weary of online polls. They may be the wave of future but I'm not sure that the future is here yet.

Still, this is good to see. This one is obviously going to be super close.

Well look at that... Braswell Brentley is making a last stand after all.

Colorado is gone for us, but Iowa is still in play!

Don't give up yet.

Iowa has never not really been out of play for the Democrats. The polling has shown Ernest generally with a slight lead. It will probably be the closest non-runoff state on Election Day.

Rassy has Ernst up one. This and North Carolina could be the tightest races of the night.

I'm not quite buying NC just yet. I think it's still Hagan's race to lose. I don't trust that PPP/LCV (D) poll one bit.