Talk Elections

47-46 for LCV

http://www.lcv.org/assets/pdf/nc-senate-poll-10-30-14.pdf

The report. (http://www.lcv.org/assets/pdf/nc-senate-poll-10-30-14.pdf)

Only +1 in a poll for LCV? This is good news for Tillis.

Come on Kay, you can do it!

If that's the best PPP/LCV (D) can do, things will be interesting in NC on Election Day. It's still Hagan's race to lose.

Complete junk just like their Colorado poll.

The supposition that PPP polls for the LCV are bias in any way has no basis in fact.

Didn't they just have Braley up one in Iowa?

One problem for the republicans in NC is that hagan seems to be up 1-4 points in every single poll. Probably better odds than having her up 5 in some and down 3 in others.

Yep, like almost all IA polls, it was within the MoE.

These LCV polls aren't very good. I suspect that the Survey USA numbers from both states are closer to reality.

How crazy would it be if Tillis somehow won, despite consistently trailing since early summer? Still unlikely, but definitely plausible.

I'm predicting Hagan will win as of now, but this race is only  tilt D and could easily go either way.  If the Republicans are having a good night, Tillis winning is a real possibility. 

The proposition that any poll done for an advocacy group should be marked as partial to that advocacy group is just common sense. The pollster is not necessarily calling the shots in these instances; they are working for a client.

It's different if it's a neutral observer like a TV station as opposed to the LCV or Chamber of Commerce. The red hats on here CORRECTLY point at the Chamber bias all the time.

But that's different ... Chamber of Commerce polls tend to favor Republicans, whereas LCV polls tend to favor Democrats. Therefore a LCV poll is automatically more trustworthy than a Chamber of Commerce Poll. Don't you see the logic?

Unfortunately, all I see is logic and a desire for intellectual consistency. That's not to say that PPP ultimately called the shots with the LCV polls. However, there should be full disclosure here. The polls were done for a D-leaning group. Caveat Buck emptor.

Exactly that.

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-10-29 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220141029108)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 46%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.lcv.org/assets/pdf/nc-senate-poll-10-30-14.pdf)

If that does happen (which I would assign roughly the same probability as Udall winning re-election) I can guarantee that the reds on this board will not posit that pollsters are systematically biased against Republicans in North Carolina.

Guys, commissioned or not, PPP is not gonna be shovelling out junk results just to make Dems feel good 5 days before an election. They care too much about their accuracy.

You know, unlike the Republican pollsters which have no problem showing Todd Akin winning or Rick Santorum within the MoE, Democratic pollsters have shame.

Link (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/akin-44-mccaskill-43.html)

"August"

I'm referring to the Wenzel polling showing Akin up 4, that was released a couple days before he got curbstomped by 16.

Interestingly enough, Krazen  was gloating over that Wenzel poll. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161699.0)

This is PPP in NC, I take this seriously.

PPP has a very good track record in NC, they caught that Dole was weak and vulnerable when most throught her relatively safe.

That said I don't see Tillis winning this.

The suspense is tearing me apart.

Can't wait until Election Day.

Also this poll was done for the LCV.