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Title: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: RogueBeaver on October 28, 2014, 05:04:45 PM 44/42. (http://ksn.com/2014/10/28/senate-race-in-kansas-nearly-tied-in-latest-ksn-news-poll/)
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on October 28, 2014, 05:06:51 PM #Ormantum
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Boston Bread on October 28, 2014, 05:07:15 PM Dang undecideds, making me nervous.
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 28, 2014, 05:09:45 PM Stupendous news! Gregory the Gallant will be a great senator.
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Person Man on October 28, 2014, 05:10:04 PM Dang undecideds, making me nervous. http://youtu.be/ArC7XarwnWI Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Keystone Phil on October 28, 2014, 05:38:20 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice?
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: KCDem on October 28, 2014, 05:40:06 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Fossil in, fossil out. Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: SPC on October 28, 2014, 05:44:33 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? It is a bit nerve wracking that Roberts does not have a plurality by now. Nevertheless, I still concur that Republicans will come home by Election Day. Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Miles on October 28, 2014, 05:46:54 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives... Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: SPC on October 28, 2014, 05:48:28 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives... I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44? Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Miles on October 28, 2014, 05:50:42 PM ^ Fine, I walked into that one :P
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 28, 2014, 05:51:19 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives... I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44? I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true. Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from? Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Keystone Phil on October 28, 2014, 05:54:05 PM Miles, enough of the independent avatar charade.
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: SPC on October 28, 2014, 06:00:04 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives... I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44? I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true. Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from? What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting. Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: IceSpear on October 28, 2014, 06:06:42 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives... I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44? I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true. Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from? What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting. My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-maine-governor-lepage-vs-michaud-vs-cutler). We all have inconsistencies. ;) Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: SPC on October 28, 2014, 06:22:26 PM SurveyUSA last had Orman up by five and at 47%. Wonder where most of those undecided voters are going to go: to the Bob Dole-endorsed candidate or Obama's choice? Hmm, considering more undecideds self-idenitfy as liberals/moderates than conservatives... I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44? I'd be fine with letting this poll be true if the republicans are okay with letting that alaska poll be true. Is this poll partisan affiliated? Is there an established polling consensus for this race that this poll is substantially deviating from? What is your point? I already acknowledged that the fact that Roberts has a deficit (albeit a statistically insignificant one) at this point is disconcerting. My point is that in that post you were apparently questioning whether or not LePage being up ten differed from the polling consensus (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-maine-governor-lepage-vs-michaud-vs-cutler). We all have inconsistencies. ;) That was a poor choice of words on my part. I did not think that LePage was actually ahead 10 points, but that such a poll would be indicative of a slight LePage advantage, given that the consensus is a dead heat. Begich's 10 point lead on the other hand came from a partisan firm at a time when every other pollster showed a 3-5 point Sullivan advantage, and thus I was skeptical. However, given that a more recent nonpartisan poll have given a similar result, I am willing to put aside my initial misgivings about the Alaska poll, as my prediction indicates. Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: eric82oslo on October 29, 2014, 11:34:00 AM Orman's 11 best poll showings since mid August:
49 48 48 48 47 46 46 46 46 45 45 Roberts 11 best poll showings since mid August: 49 48 44 44 44 43 42 42 42 42 41 And these numbers don't even include the retracted Rasmussen poll which showed Orman 12% ahead. In all 16 polls registered with RCP, Orman's median is 46, while Roberts' median is 42. Only two pollsters, a Republican firm and YouGov, are currently showing Roberts ahead. Plus two really old polls by Fox and CNN. Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Eraserhead on October 29, 2014, 11:37:19 AM Can't feel to good about a lead this small. There's a great chance that Roberts will survive.
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Matty on October 29, 2014, 05:52:25 PM I think republicans will come home in the end here.
Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: KCDem on October 29, 2014, 06:08:18 PM I think republicans will come home in the end here. Ummm....there are only 5 days left...times is running out for the DC Fossil. Title: Re: KS-SUSA: Orman +2 Post by: Matty on October 29, 2014, 06:35:56 PM You're insufferable
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