Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 24, 2014, 09:35:06 am



Title: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 24, 2014, 09:35:06 am
Quote
Heads up, political world: We'll be releasing SIX brand-new NBC/Marist polls on Sunday -- AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/525653501045903360


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 12:45:04 pm
I would love to see if Mark Pryor gets a double digit stanky boot, since things are starting to look like that's possible.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 24, 2014, 12:47:01 pm
Nice! Always good to get some quality polls. Thanks to NBC for paying for this.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 24, 2014, 12:54:45 pm
My guess for the margins:
AR: Cotton up 4
CO: Gardner up 1
IA: Tie
KS: Orman up 4
NC: Hagan up 3
SD: No effing idea but rough guess of Rounds 37, Weiland 36, Pressler 19


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Maxwell on October 24, 2014, 01:05:42 pm
My guess:

AR: Cotton up 7
CO: Gardner up 3
IA: Ernst up 1
KS: Tie
NC: Hagan up 4
SD: Rounds up 4


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: King on October 24, 2014, 01:08:26 pm
My guess is that they will be polls.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Free Bird on October 24, 2014, 01:10:52 pm
My guess is that they will be polls.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2014, 01:16:44 pm
Wish they would have done GA over AR.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: JRP1994 on October 24, 2014, 01:19:17 pm
My prediction:

Cotton +6
Garder +4
Ernst +2
Orman +1
Hagan +3
Rounds +2


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Miles on October 24, 2014, 01:24:44 pm
Wish they would have done GA over AR.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Kevin on October 24, 2014, 01:26:25 pm
Wish they would have done GA over AR.

My guess is that prob picked Arkansas over Georgia because they want a confirmation of what they already know-that Pryor is indeed down by more then the MoE going into election day.

IMO it doesn't make any sense to poll Georgia with that considered since the the result that counts isn't until January.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: IceSpear on October 24, 2014, 01:48:27 pm
Thank god someone is finally polling SD. My predictions:

AR: Cotton +7
CO: Gardner +5
IA: Ernst +1
KS: Orman +4
NC: Hagan +2
SD: Rounds +5 (Weiland in second)


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Liberalrocks on October 24, 2014, 01:56:03 pm
Meh Ill take a try at it

My predictions:

AR: Cotton +8
CO: Gardner +4
IA:  Braley +1 or Tie.
KS: Orman +5
NC: Hagan +3
SD: Rounds +4 (Weiland in second) Lower then expected showing for Pressler.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: New_Conservative on October 24, 2014, 02:36:34 pm
AR - Cotton up 5
CO - Gardner up 2
IA - Ernst up 2
KS - Roberts up 1
NC - Hagan up 2
SD - Rounds up 4


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 24, 2014, 02:39:02 pm
My guess:
AR - Cotton up 5
CO - Gardner up 4
IA - Ernst up 2
KS - Orman up 1
NC - Hagan up 2
SD - Rounds up 6


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Flake on October 24, 2014, 02:48:20 pm
Arkansas: Cotton +6
Colorado: Gardner +3
Iowa: Braley +1
Kansas: Orman +4
North Carolina: Hagan +3
South Dakota: Rounds +2


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 24, 2014, 04:14:24 pm
HAGAN WILL BE UP 3 LOL KEN BUCK


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: retromike22 on October 24, 2014, 04:20:37 pm
I'm really looking forward to the SD poll.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Miles on October 24, 2014, 05:11:18 pm
My predictions:

Arkansas: Cotton +7
Colorado: Gardner +3
Iowa: TIE
Kansas: Orman +3
North Carolina: Hagan +2
South Dakota: Rounds +4

Since I'm assuming they're also polling the Gov races:

Arkansas: Hutchison +6
Colorado: Hick +1
Kansas: Davis +4


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2014, 08:16:44 pm
My predictions ...

Arkansas: Cotton +5
Colorado: Gardner +2
Iowa: Ernst +1
Kansas: Orman +3
North Carolina: Hagan +3
South Dakota: Rounds +3


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: SPC on October 24, 2014, 08:27:00 pm
Predictions:

Cotton +6
Gardner +1
Tie
Orman +3
Hagan +3
Rounds +3


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: morgieb on October 24, 2014, 08:27:03 pm
Arkansas: Cotton +6
Colorado: Gardner +3
Iowa: Ernst +1
Kansas: Orman +2
North Carolina: Hagan +2
South Dakota: Rounds +5, Weiland second


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Flake on October 24, 2014, 08:45:19 pm

?


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2014, 09:18:26 pm
I'm really looking forward to the SD poll.

Yeah, that's the one I'm most interested in. I wish they had done KY, GA and LA as well.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 25, 2014, 06:24:50 am
AR: Cotton+7
CO: Gardner+2
IA: Tie
KS: Orman+3
NC: Hagan+1
SD: Rounds+8 over Weiland, Pressler 3rd


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 25, 2014, 02:38:16 pm

I think we broke Phil


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 25, 2014, 08:39:47 pm

It's a competitive election year... Phil is always this way.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Flake on October 25, 2014, 08:58:59 pm

That's unfortunate.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on October 25, 2014, 10:30:06 pm
AR: Cotton+7
CO: Gardner+2
IA: Tie
KS: Orman+3
NC: Hagan+1
SD: Rounds+8 over Weiland, Pressler 3rd

Are these the real numbers?


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2014, 12:08:17 am
AR: Cotton+7
CO: Gardner+2
IA: Tie
KS: Orman+3
NC: Hagan+1
SD: Rounds+8 over Weiland, Pressler 3rd

Are these the real numbers?

No, they're Tender's predictions.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2014, 03:01:06 am
Someone else needs to add these and the YouGov polls, because I'm @ a birthday party for my little nephew the whole afternoon.

Preferably, you can create a new thread for the Marist polls because of all the predictions and I merge the 2 threads later and put the topline numbers on top of the page.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Chance92 on October 26, 2014, 03:53:11 am

Sounds like a problem for a therapist, if you ask me.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Donnie on October 26, 2014, 03:54:05 am
Wow. You guys are TOTAL MAX. POLITICAL FREAKS!!! You are making predictions even
for new next POLLS that will come out??? Or i am missing something here?


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2014, 04:04:28 am
Wow. You guys are TOTAL MAX. POLITICAL FREAKS!!! You are making predictions even
for new next POLLS that will come out??? Or i am missing something here?

You do know where you are right?


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Donnie on October 26, 2014, 04:10:37 am
Wow. You guys are TOTAL MAX. POLITICAL FREAKS!!! You are making predictions even
for new next POLLS that will come out??? Or i am missing something here?

You do know where you are right?

Yes, among the biggest and best informed political maniacs in the world!! :)


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Senator Cris on October 26, 2014, 08:03:58 am
Not predictions, but results:

AR - Cotton 45 Pryor 43
CO - Gardner 46 Udall 45
IA - Ernst 49 Braley 46
KS - Orman 45 Roberts 44
NC - Hagan 43 Tillis 43
SD - Rounds 43, Weiland 29, Pressler 16


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Flake on October 26, 2014, 08:06:49 am
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-marist-polls-show-tight-contests-key-states-n234136

CO: 46-45 Gardner
IA: 49-46 Ernst
KS: 45-44 Orman
AR: 45-43 Cotton
NC: 43-43 Hagan
SD: 43-29 Rounds


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Senator Cris on October 26, 2014, 08:09:18 am
Quote
In Coloradoís Senate contest, Republican challenger Cory Gardner holds a one-point lead among likely voters over incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., 46 percent to 45 percent. Back in Septemberís NBC/Marist poll, Udall was ahead by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.

Quote
In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst edges Democrat Bruce Braley by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Earlier this month, Ernstís lead was two points, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Quote
In Kansas, independent Greg Orman has a one-point advantage over Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, 45 percent to 44 percent Ė down from Ormanís 10-point lead earlier this month in the NBC/Marist poll.

Quote
In Arkansas, Republican challenger Tom Cotton gets the support of 45 percent of likely voters, versus incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., at 43 percent. In September, Cottonís lead was five points.

Quote
And in North Carolina, incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., and GOP opponent Thom Tillis are tied at 43 percent each. Thatís down from Haganís four-point lead earlier this month. Libertarian Sean Haugh gets 7 percent of the vote.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2014, 08:10:38 am
Absolutely devastating results for Democrats.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: tpfkaw on October 26, 2014, 08:11:11 am
Good results for the GOP, except arguably AR and CO (although NBC/Marist's last poll was quite favorable to Udall).


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2014, 08:11:24 am
Nice! Always good to get some quality polls. Thanks to NBC for paying for this.

Agreed!


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: krazen1211 on October 26, 2014, 08:18:27 am
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-marist-polls-show-tight-contests-key-states-n234136

CO: 46-45 Gardner
IA: 49-46 Ernst
KS: 45-44 Orman
AR: 45-43 Cotton
NC: 43-43 Hagan
SD: 43-29 Rounds


That sound you hear is Bruce Bailey squealing.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Flake on October 26, 2014, 08:26:31 am
I'm surprised how it's closer in Arkansas and Colorado than Iowa.

Also, with people who already voted in Colorado, Gardner leads along the lines of 54-42, and the ones who haven't voted lean Udall 48-41ish, so this confirms the enthusiasm gap we see between Democrats with Mark "Uterus".


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Panda Express on October 26, 2014, 08:27:46 am
Only down 1 in Colorado and 2 in Arkansas? I'll take it!


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Eraserhead on October 26, 2014, 08:30:13 am
So basically every race is a complete tossup? lol.

South Dakota is a bummer though.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: R2D2 (Malarkey Destroying Edition) on October 26, 2014, 08:30:49 am
Pryormentum!


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Free Bird on October 26, 2014, 08:32:01 am
Considering these polls are usually slanted, I'm happy


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 08:33:30 am
Udall only down one in Colorado? Looks like we got Gardner right where we want him.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Panda Express on October 26, 2014, 08:36:35 am
Considering these polls are usually slanted, I'm happy


Marist had a bias of 1 point.... towards the Republicans in 2012. Don't be retarded. They are a solid pollster.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Eraserhead on October 26, 2014, 08:38:57 am
Really hope that they poll GA, KY, LA and NH soon. That'd basically cover all of the important Senate races.

(AK is important too of course but they probably shouldn't bother trying to poll it.)


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Devils30 on October 26, 2014, 08:54:03 am
Marist had Colorado as a tie in 2012, can't say this is good for gardner. Results seem a bit odd compared to other North Carolina and Arkansas polls though.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Cory Booker on October 26, 2014, 09:25:47 am


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 09:26:54 am
Marist had Colorado as a tie in 2012, can't say this is good for gardner. Results seem a bit odd compared to other North Carolina and Arkansas polls though.

Udall only +4 with Hispanics...

Looks like Gardner is toast.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Mehmentum on October 26, 2014, 09:29:35 am
Better than I expected in Colorodo and Arkansas, worse than I expected in North Carolina and South Dakota, about what I expected in Iowa and Kansas. 

I'd say these polls are a wash, overall.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Cory Booker on October 26, 2014, 09:46:50 am
If Pryor wins, look for an upset in KY. Pryor win will signal GOP lost already, and McConnell isnt needed as majority leader.


Title: CO: Marist College: Gardner and Udall in dead heat
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 09:50:18 am
New Poll: Colorado Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=8220141022008)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 46%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-colorado-gardner-and-udall-in-dead-heat-in-contest-for-u-s-senate-hickenlooper-edges-beauprez-in-governors-race/)


Title: IA: Marist College: Ernst and Braley in Competitive Contest for U.S. Senate
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 09:53:37 am
New Poll: Iowa Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220141022008)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-iowa-ernst-and-braley-in-competitive-contest-for-u-s-senate-branstad-with-large-lead-in-governors-race/)


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: chrisras on October 26, 2014, 09:54:26 am
Better than you expected in Colorado??  Udall was up 6 points last month.  Now Udall is down by 1.  That is a disaster for him.


Title: NC: Marist College: Hagan and Tillis Tied in U.S. Senate Race
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 09:56:04 am
New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220141023008)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, I: 7%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-north-carolina-hagan-and-tillis-tied-in-u-s-senate-race/)


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Eraserhead on October 26, 2014, 09:58:06 am
Better than you expected in Colorado??  Udall was up 6 points last month.  Now Udall is down by 1.  That is a disaster for him.

Considering Udall's campaign was basically a complete joke over the course of that month, that isn't bad.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Mehmentum on October 26, 2014, 09:59:51 am
Better than you expected in Colorado??  Udall was up 6 points last month.  Now Udall is down by 1.  That is a disaster for him.
Have you been paying attention to any polls recently?  This is an improvement from most polls in the last few weeks (excluding internals, of course).


Title: KS: Marist College: Orman and Roberts Neck and Neck in U.S. Senate Race
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 10:00:37 am
New Poll: Kansas Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=20220141022008)

Summary: D: 0%, R: 44%, I: 45%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201072.msg4351279#new)


Title: SD: Marist College: Rounds with Wide Lead in U.S. Senate Race
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 10:06:24 am
New Poll: South Dakota Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=46220141023008)

Summary: D: 29%, R: 43%, I: 16%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-south-dakota-rounds-with-wide-lead-in-u-s-senate-race-daugaard-trounces-wismer-in-governors-contest/)


Title: AR: Marist College: Cotton and Pryor in Tight Match in U.S. Senate Contest
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 10:12:08 am
New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Marist College on 2014-10-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220141023008)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 45%, I: 6%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-arkansas-cotton-and-pryor-in-tight-match-in-u-s-senate-contest-hutchinson-and-ross-closely-paired-in-governors-race/)


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 26, 2014, 10:12:45 am
Alright, all added. Sorry for the thread spam!


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Beezer on October 26, 2014, 10:26:12 am
Considering all the gloom and doom out there for Dems, being within striking distance in CO, AR, and IA is actually quite alright.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on October 26, 2014, 10:47:02 am
Wow, let's cheer Udall being down 1 (that will do little to reduce the average with so many polls there and DINO Mark Pryor being down 2 when the other 4 are worse than anticipated. I filly expected Ernst to be behind and Round to be a 3 way toss up with him around 36 percent. Ultra safe Kay Hagan who was supposedly only going down if the GOP got 55 seats is tied with a libertarian polling well!! That's the newsworthy part. And Roberts is only down 1! He's clearly coming back down the stretch. 2 mildly better than expected is apparently good news for Dems.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Maxwell on October 26, 2014, 10:49:06 am
Good results for the GOP, except arguably AR and CO (although NBC/Marist's last poll was quite favorable to Udall).

Yeah, either its an outlier, or the National GOP spending money in South Dakota has worked.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Miles on October 26, 2014, 11:00:07 am
I wish they pushed undecideds in NC.

They have Haugh at 17% (!) with Indies, which I don't really buy.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 26, 2014, 11:11:47 am
A good set of polls for Republican - not glorious, just good. Happy to see that North Carolina is still in reach.

I suspect undecideds will break for Roberts in the Senate race, based on my own intuition. People aren't too keen on Roberts, but it pales in comparison to the dislike many have for Brownback. Roberts is working hard to nationalize this race and I think it is working.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on October 26, 2014, 11:12:07 am
I wish they pushed undecideds in NC.

They have Haugh at 17% (!) with Indies, which I don't really buy.

Never a good thing to analyze breakdown within a subsample, but independents are largely conservatives who dislike the GOP (which is why more appropriately moderates decide elections). I feel like in NC especially, an independent is likely a former Republican who supports gay marriage and feels enlightened compared to the base. They are then attracted to the Libertarian party based solely off economics and gay marriage. Hugh at 17 percent in the subsample probably isn't that far off considering where he is in general polls and how ideologically strict the two major candidates are for their party bases. I'm not going to speculate on which way they break (because even if 17 percent seems acurate, it wI'll surely be lower at the ballot box), but it will probably be pretty even.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2014, 11:56:38 am
Hardly bad results for the Dems.

Udall is on the way to victory !


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Devils30 on October 26, 2014, 12:22:50 pm
With the history of Dems beating Colorado polls and many still showing Udall down single digits with whites, the GOP can't breathe easy just yet.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: IceSpear on October 26, 2014, 01:50:11 pm
Interesting results. AR/CO might not be gone?, KS is still a toss up, and IA/NC look better for Rs than expected.

Looks like SD might be gone (again). I think Dems may have missed a golden opportunity here to back Pressler as soon as SUSA showed him in striking distance, but it's obviously too late now.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: ďRub a dub dubĒ - Bob Dylan on October 26, 2014, 03:59:07 pm
Wow. You guys are TOTAL MAX. POLITICAL FREAKS!!! You are making predictions even
for new next POLLS that will come out??? Or i am missing something here?

You do know where you are right?

Yes, among the biggest and best informed political maniacs in the world!! :)
Welcome to the madhouse.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 26, 2014, 04:11:53 pm
I don't think NC is a tie, and I think Cotton is up more, but these look reasonable.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Brewer on October 26, 2014, 10:46:48 pm
I don't think NC is a tie, and I think Cotton is up more, but these look reasonable.

Essentially this.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Everything Burns... on October 27, 2014, 06:41:03 am
The South Dakota result makes sense.  Pressler got absolutely nuked by both parties and he was always the only candidate who could appeal to Republicans dissatisfied with Rounds.  Weiland has almost literally no cross-party appeal which is why I've always said the Democrats should've thrown him under the bus and gone all-in for Pressler (if they were going to make a serious play here).  Regardless, the time for that was a couple weeks ago, too late now.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2014, 03:08:31 pm
The South Dakota result makes sense.  Pressler got absolutely nuked by both parties and he was always the only candidate who could appeal to Republicans dissatisfied with Rounds.  Weiland has almost literally no cross-party appeal which is why I've always said the Democrats should've thrown him under the bus and gone all-in for Pressler (if they were going to make a serious play here).  Regardless, the time for that was a couple weeks ago, too late now.

Yeah, national Democrats really flubbed this great opportunity and let it pass them by. Truly a shame. I only hope it was because they knew Weiland was an Akin/Meek who would refuse to drop out no matter what, and not because they didn't even bother to try.


Title: Re: New NBC/Marist polls out Sunday (AR, CO, IA, KS, NC, SD)
Post by: Liberalrocks on October 27, 2014, 03:18:07 pm