Talk Elections

Hagan 46, Tillis 43. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_10201118.pdf)

Dominating! :D

More like it.

Also 47/44 without Haugh.

Better than I expected for Hagan. I thought she'd only be up 1-2.

Women are twice as likely than men to be undecided; good sign for Hagan if true.

As if we needed it, more confirmation that Hagan is leading and Gravis is trash.

Excellent news!

The North Carolina firewall is holding!!

This seems more appropriate

Firewall? From what? Losing the Senate 52-48 or 53-47 vs. 54-46?

The fact that this NC race is this close with PPP, who has favored the Ds this cycle, should not be encouraging to any red avatar.

Looks like this race has gone from strong lean D to slight lean D. Tillis could win.

Your faux-independent trolling is unappreciated. Go back to whatever fracking crevice you came out of.

Proof, please.

Excuse me? You of all people seriously went there?

So rational thought about the status of the races en toto is somehow "trolling?" Getting called a "troller" from the ultimate troller on this board is comical.

If any RATIONAL Republican or Democrat went through these races, NC would likely be rated Republican 54 or Democrat 46. New Hampshire would be 55/45. Georgia would probably be 53/47 at this point, with Kansas at 52/48, followed by Iowa, Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc..

NC is hardly a firewall. If anything the firewall is in Iowa or Colorado where control of the Senate would flip. Losing NC is the Democrat disaster scenario at this point.

Don't hate the messenger for the analysis. It is what it is on October 20. Things, of course, could change.

Iowa - PPP D+1, Other polling R+1 to R+4
LA - PPP D+8, Other polling D+3 to R+4
KS - PPP I+3, Other polling (outside of obvious Rasmussen outlier) Tie to R+5

This particular poll seems more in line with the state of the race, however.

The Iowa poll was for a partisan group, so you can't really count that as the same their non-partisan polls.  

The only poll that has Roberts at +5 was Fox news, which is (needless to say) probably biased itself.  Every other recent poll has had this at roughly a tie, which is probably where the race is right now.

Citing individual cases of PPP being a few points more Democratic than other polls is not enough to statistically determine a bias.

What would then

oh cool, another right-wing "independent" spewing nonsense

As big a Hagan hack I can be at times, I never had this race as Lean D. Even when her leads were in the 3-6% range, I always thought of it as Tilt D.

Firewall? That's like saying, hey, at least the entire D-Line didn't get to our quarterback.

Your quarterback is still demolished even if your right tackle (barely) picked up the blitz.

if tillis wins, so will the following - cotton, sullivan, roberts, cassidy, and at least two of rounds, ernst, brown, and gardner.

This makes the Gravis poll look even more hilarious.

You don't get to throw out the Ras outlier in Kansas but not the FOX one.

Nonsense? You go ahead and rate the Senate races for me and tell me where the firewall should realistically be.. Probably somewhere around the Prior race, where there'd be more pathways to 51 for the Democrats

Not North Carolina, which would likely be pickup No. 54 for the Republicans, leaving just No. 55 New Hampshire as the only state left after you "break through the firewall."

Michigan is not going Republican. Nor is Minnesota. The ballgame is in 10 states right now, the Dems conceded Kentucky, so realistically it's down to 9. The map right now favors the Republicans in 7 of the remaining 9 states (with GA and KS as pure tossups/slight lean).

Nothing I have said is anything other than factual. I don't get how I am somehow a partisan when I state the obvious.

As I have repeatedly said. As of October 20th, the polling favors the Republicans. That could change between now and Election Day. it is what it is.

While anything is technically possible, I can't imagine a world where national mood the Republicans pick up the Senate, but NC elects a Democrat. Something has got to give.

The idiocy in the thread is astounding.

The early voting for Republicans in NC is off to a good start. Something I'm not used to seeing, because Democrats dominate Republicans in early voting every election.

What's so implausible about this scenario where the Republicans hit 51 Senate seats? 

()

That scenario is basically Democrats winning the competitive races in the 2008 Obama states and Republican winning in the 2008 McCain states.  That's why I'm a pessimist about the Democrats keeping the Senate.  Republicans need to lose a competitive races in either Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas or South Dakota, while Democrats win all the competitive races in swing states like North Carolina, Iowa and Colorado.

They dominate in-person early voting, not by mail early voting.

This race has been pretty consistent.

It's a world where African American voters turn out in high numbers for a midterm election but the rest of the Obama coalition falls off and independents don't turn out.

Hahahahahahahahaha! No.