Talk Elections

Orman (I) 44%
Roberts (R) 41%
Batson (L) 5%

Orman (I) 46%
Roberts (R) 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_1012118.pdf

Gross

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.

What Phil said.

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Better chance the GOP wins here than Colorado

I can't believe Kansas is going to be the state to watch on election night.

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

Not willing to concede that yet, but I will return the race to Toss-Up from Leans I. You may get your wish after all.....

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Closer than expected, but Orman's still got this.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread

Iowa is SUPPOSED to be competitive, it's a purple state. Plus there's no incumbent. It would be comparable if Democrats were cheering that Chris Coons was "only trailing" Kevin Wade by 3 points.

Hi there px. You know, I don't make too many predictions (as to the forumites who do that incessantly, I tend to view that more a function of the enthusiasm of youth, and well, predictions is the essence of the site, so I don't mind it much but whatever), particularly when they are against the grain (a fool's errand really). When I do, there is a certain reasoning behind it. I judged Orman more or less just another pretty face, with not much there behind it, as he attempted his little tight wire aerial act. The odds were he was going to fall off. Unlike Orman, I like to think that I am not entirely just another pretty face you know. Have a nice day.

But look at the upside, px. Given my doubling down here, if the winds shift and Orman wins, you will savor it all the more. Cheers.

It's a big shift from the last PPP poll, which had Orman up by 10. Granted, Roberts is still in a really terrible place electorally (an incumbent behind and only at 41%), but the ground is shifting toward his favor (mainly because Republicans are coming home).

Yea, I'll hold out hope but I feel like this might not be Orman's in the end.  A shame too.  I admittedly would prefer Orman, and it'd be really cool to see him win simply for the sake of having another independent in the senate.

Really?

Of course it is in this context. The slope up when where one is tends to increase as you close the gap. That is of course related to fundamentals. Booker in NJ has lost a ton of points in lead, a rather steep decline. Will he lose based on extrapolations? Of course not. Now Virginia, where the same thing is happening, with different fundamentals, is a tad more interesting. :)

A further narrowing wouldn't shock me, either. It seems like the healing process has begun for the GOP after a divisive primary and the Republicans are bringing out the big guns in an attempt to stabilize the state as insurance to get to 51.

The wild card, of course, is that Roberts is running against an independent and not a Democrat and the Democrat is gone. It will be interesting to see how the dynamics will work out here with Orman not having the Democrat nameplate.

My sincerest apologies for ever doubting him (although in my defense, I did not question the outcome so much as his certainty)

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.

People keep missing my sarcasm... I am well aware of the problems of basing virtually anything on two observations. I'd be a poor economist if that weren't the case.


I would imagine that any state "wants" to regress to its conditional mean more or less and the creation of "momentum" can create a positive feedback loop to accelerate that process. There is more than ample reason to suggest that Roberts could accelerate his rise moreso than Orman could do in a reversed situation. I was merely pointing out that the here-to-date closing would not be sufficient for a Roberts victory.

To understand Kansas is to understand the dynamics of the race. There was a very divisive primary between the establishment incumbent (Roberts) and the upstart tea party challenger (Wolf).

It's pretty much clear that Orman leads at this point.

However, the race has narrowed as the healing process started to take root. Whether the remaining 25-percent of Republicans not voting for Roberts rallies behind him for sake of taking the Senate out of Democrat hands remains to be seen, but this seat is definitely in play and not a given Democrat take at this point in time.

Sample is slightly friendly to Democrats IMO, but confirmed what I have seen first-hand - Roberts has certainly narrowed the gap, and is on his way to winning in November.

Why do you say that?

Because Orman is leading.

Romney vs. Obama '12 numbers. I think that turnout will be relatively similar to 2012 as Democrats are overall more enthused, but I doubt it'll be more friendly to Democrats.

Just a small difference - might shift numbers by a point if that.

Don't be ridiculous.

Obama won 38% of the vote in the sample...the same as in 2012.

And Romney won 54% of the vote in the sample, while he won close to 60% in 2012.

It's a pretty consistent trend in PPP polls that "someone else/don't remember" are almost always Romney voters.

If you run a plot of Roberts's and Orman's absolute polling numbers with the date that the poll was taken, you notice that Orman's numbers have not budged from ~46% since Taylor's withdrawal from the race, whereas Roberts has been gaining a percentage point roughly every four days. This trend exists even if you omit the anomalous FOX poll from the sample. From a pure momentum standpoint, Roberts is on track to win this race by around 5 points.

While momentum is overrated as a metric of one-on-one races, it could be indicative of a trend of the undecided voters, especially since it seems to be solely a movement of undecideds toward the Roberts camp. Given that Orman currently leads by roughly 2 points, I will split the difference and say Roberts wins this by a percentage point.

What does being a PA Republican have to do with anything?

Just remember: Santorum lost to a "BALD" guy!

Nope, still don't get it.