Talk Elections

I've read that the breakdown is usually going to be 42% Conservative 37% Moderate and 21% Liberal. Assuming dems win liberals 90-10 and lose conservatives 90-10, wouldn't math dictate dems need to win 73% of moderates?

Where are you getting these numbers from? These were the breakdowns in 2012:

Liberals (25%): 86-11 Obama
Moderates (40%): 56-41 Obama
Conservatives (35%): 82-17 Romney

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Voter_demographics

Most people who call themselves "moderates" have been liberal in my experience.

Do you consider me a liberal?

Not this one. :P

"Moderate" is a very subjective term.

Also notice how Obama won ~20% of Conservatives in 2008 and 2012. This is partially because a lot of black voters identify as conservative (primarily on cultural issues) but still vote Democrat.

Additionally, the number of self-identified moderates has dropped from 50% in 2000 as the number of liberals and conservatives rise. That's a combination of a greater focus on base turnout starting in 2004, as well as more people being honest about their true ideology.

The opposite is true for people calling themselves independents and Republicans; the GOP has become so embarrassing that many call themselves independent while still voting Republican, which is why Romney won the indy vote but still lost the election.

Meh, I wouldn't say that based on my experience. Usually it's:

moderate = Democrat (60%)
independent = Republican (70%)

You think that a lot of "Moderates" and "Independents" are really partisans trying to move the center in their direction. "I'm moderate. You're just unreasonably conservative or. "I'm Independent. You're a Democrat hack." Though I imagine that "Independent" could simply be that you think the out-party represents your values but are too incompetent to be a member of.

There's a difference between being an independent because you think both parties have good and bad aspects and you aren't wedded to either one, and being an independent because you completely despise one party and think the other party isn't far enough to the right/left to be acceptable to you.

But being a moderate basically only allows for the former, not the latter.

Yeah, and it depends very much on specific issues. Am I a liberal or a moderate when I consider myself as a fiscal conservative, but progressive on social issues?

I guess whatever you want to believe you are, but heck, I'd say that seems undeniably more "moderate" than "liberal."  In your own words, you described an ideology that contains half conservatism.

Moderate is a subjective term based on one's political leanings.

Um, no? Moderates voted 56% - 41% for Obama, and Independents voted 50% - 45% for Romney. Check out the link IceSpear just posted.

FWIW, WaPo  had an article out today (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/16/democrats-need-to-win-65-of-moderates-to-hold-the-senate/) saying that Democrat need to win 65% of moderates to keep the Senate.

As Griffin said, moderates skew Democratic, vis-à-vis 'Independents', so it's not totally out of the question.

Um, yes? I was referring to the leans in the South (more particularly, places like my home state) - not the national averages - since someone brought up that particular group.