Talk Elections

The Faroe Islands will be holding an election to their parliament, the Løgting (Law Thing), on September 1 2015, which will give me an excuse to nerd about North Atlantic stuff.

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Their party system is structured around two conflict lines a) pro-union with Denmark vs. pro-independence and b) the standard socio-economic one. Basically you have one big right wing and one big left wing on each side of the unionist/nationalist cleavage. In addition they have two small centrist separatist parties, one Social Liberal and one Social Conservative + a Libertarian party.

Unionist parties

The Union Party: The old pro-Danish party from the Agrarian Liberal Scandinavian tradition is today a broad tent and moderate centre-right party.

The Social Democrats (literally the Equality Party) is a moderate centre-left party, which argues that greater autonomy is only acceptable if it doesn't lead to worse living conditions for the socially disadvantaged.

Nationalist parties

The People's Party: Right wing conservative, nationalist party representing wealthy fishermen + trading and shipping interests.
 
The Home Rule Party (recently renamed New Self-Government): The original independence party from which the others have split off survives as a small social liberal party in the big ideological gap between the People's  Party and Republic.

Republic: Left wing, republican (duh) and nationalist party formed after Denmark ignored a yes vote in the 1946 independence referendum because the turnout was insufficient. Tends to prioritize the independence part over social justice when the two conflicts  - as they often do because cutting the 100 mio. $ grant from Denmark is next to impossible to do without reducing social welfare.

New separatist parties:

The Centre Party: Centrist, Christian Democratic/SoCon outfit for the fundis.

Progress: A small Libertarian party formed people who considered the People's Party too centrist on economics (you gotta be pretty right wing to think that..) and too old fashioned on social issues.

The current government is a broad coalition of three centre-right parties (Union Party, People's Party and the Centre Party, until autumn 2013 it also included the Home Rule Party) under Kaj Leo Johannesen from the Union Party. It's rather unusual for a Faroese government to include both PP and UP, which can be compared to a Fianna Fail/Fine Gael coalition in Ireland (so almost against the laws of nature ;) ).

Yes traditionally, the Union Party originated as a liberal farmers party, so the Liberals is their sister party, which left the People's Party no choice but to align with their conservative brethren in the Folketing if they wanted any influence, despite Danish Conservatives obviously being unionists. Nowadays the Faeroese autonomy is so great that the Folketing doesn't matter much for them, so PP is not in the Conservative group anymore when they are represented in the Folketing.
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Socio-economic scale

Left

Republic

Social Democrats
-------------------
Centre Party

Home Rule Party
Union Party

Peoples Party

Progress

Right


Union/independence scale


Separatism


Republic
Peoples Party/Progress

Home Rule Party

Centre Party
---------------
Social Democrats

Union Party


Unionism

Reposting this because the Union Party is split down the middle on whether Johannesen should stay on as leader and since he is a liability at this point this could be decisive. There is also a possibility that he will face a motion of no confidence when the Løgting reconvenes on July 29.

No polling since spring, but given the condemnation of Johannnesen and the result of the Folketing election the left is most likely still ahead. We should get a poll in early August.

The issue most likely to interest (at least a few..) of our regulars is whether the Faroe Islands (the last holdout in Scandinavia) will finally get gay marriage after the election. With 62-68% of the voters in favour and most parties positive this should look like a done deal, but is in reality more complicated.

At the last vote in the Løgting on the issue in spring 2014 it was voted down 20-11 with 2 no-shows:


For:

Republic 6
Progress 1
4 SDs


Against:

Union Party 8
People's Party 8
Centre Party 2
2 SDs


No show:

1 former Progress MP who had joined PP
1 Home Rule Party


Kaj Leo Johannesen - who is personally in favour of civil gay marriage, but not of forcing the church to wed gay couples - had ordered his own party to vote against it - despite votes on ethical matters traditionally not being under the whip.
His official reason was merely that the government does not normally support opposition proposals, but in reality he did not want to risk a government exit from the Centre Party, which was a real risk because the proposal would likely have passed if Union Party MPs were allowed to vote freely. PP had done the same - which is why the (fairly Libertarian) ex-Progress guy stayed away from the vote.


The situation currently is:


Pro-gay marriage:

Republic, Progress and almost all of the Home Rule Party (the guy that stayed away from the poll was their then party leader, an elderly man who is not running for reelection).


Split:

SD has a few SoCons, but one of the MPs voting against has since joined the Union Party and it is unlikely that more than 1-2 of maybe 8 MPs in the new Løgting will be SoCons.

Union Party: Split, but likely with a solid pro-gay majority depending on who gets in. Party leadership would love to see the issue get settled, but may not be willing to initiate it themselves.


Against gay marriage:

Centre Party
People's Party (although there are a few Conservative Libertarians, who are for it)


A "red coalition" between Republic and SD who do it, last time the two parties were in coalition they had the Centre Party as a third partner. SD traditionally likes working with the Centre Party because it is the most centrist of the bourgeois parties and only very moderately separatist (not an issue the fundis care about), but given how gay marriage has been put on the agenda since 2012 I think it would be too toxic for them and Republic would likely not accept having CP as part of the government anyway. If they do not get a left wing majority they would probably prefer the Home Rule Party as partner despite its more right wing views on economics. In this case Union Party pro-gay MPs would secure a solid majority even if a few SD SoCons would vote against.

A broad coalition between SD and the Union Party (possibly including the Home Rule Party) might do it - or more likely send it to a referendum. Just to get the issue done with. Both parties leadership have a strong interest in settling the matter, so it is off the agenda.

Anything including the People's Party or Centre Party would rule it out, since neither of those parties are willing to compromise or risk a referendum.


Unlike Greenland, which is a diocese under the Danish church, the Faroe Islands have had their own independent Lutheran state church since 2007. It has plenty of SoCon ministers and forcing them to perform gay marriage - or splitting the church by allowing their colleagues to do it - would be out of the question for anyone but Republic.

Couldn't civil marriage be a thing, then ?

It is civil gay marriage that is on the agenda. That is what they voted on in 2014.

I was only familiar with this place after reading about the utterly repulsive grindadráp tradition there. Do any of the parties support banning that sick thing? Even just pictures of it look horrifying.

Nah, that would be a huge electoral liability. It is popular and they view it as a humane way of killing the animals, which is just demonized by outsiders because it is a literal bloodbath, which sheltered city folks can not handle. And they have a point.

Kaj Leo Johannesen has just called it to be held on September 1. Trying to silence the critics in his own party and avoid a leadership challenge.

A selfish move since his party would likely have done quite a lot better without him, but it was the only weapon he had left. Half his party wanted him gone and if he had waited they would have found someone to run against him.

This election hasn't been polled since April and the Folketing result is useless in predicting the Løgting, since voters use different criteria, so it is anybody's guess who is ahead.

Johannesen used his speech at the opening of the Løgting on the Faroese national  day Ólavsøka (Olaf's Wake  - in memory of the death of the Norwegian King Olaf II (lSaint Olaf)'s death at the Battle of Stiklestad in 1030). So all very patriotic.

Their gay pride parade was on July 27. Too bad, I was hoping they would have it during the campaign. ;)

Pretty big thing nowadays. It has had up to 5 000 participants in a country with 49 000 people.

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"Socialists for love" on this banner.

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Yes, brtd these sort of things tend to be toxic to oppose. See also: the Newfoundland Greens support of the annual seal clubbing.

Even setting aside the thousand year old cultural tradition thing and only looking at it from a practical angle it is hard to argue against grindadrap without suggesting the population should go full scale vegetarian (unpopular and expensive in a country where you generally can not grow vegetables and fruit outside hothouses and all imports are expensive). With modern methods it takes on average 22 seconds for a pilot whale to die after it has been hooked. That is pretty quick and of course far quicker than it takes for a whale trapped in a fishing net to die. It is not an endangered species, so basically you are down to the stress of hunting. Which is less than the stress of an animal in an industrial slaughterhouse (not to mention the transport to the slaughterhouse).

If the Faroese did not kill pilot whales they would have to import industrially produced meat from animals treated worse. So it is one of those: "Become a vegetarian or shut up" things. With the caveat that there actually are poor people who can not really afford to become vegetarians on the Faroes.

Given that the meat is shared and benefit the poor and it is not a good case for the left (+ Republic are Faroese nationalists) and the right wing is naturally pro-tradition/national culture. The Self-Government Party with its Social Liberal and urban base might be the most likely to become critical, but again: They are the scions of a nationalist tradition.

Outlawing some less efficient methods would be the only thing politically realistic. They are being phased out anyway.

http://arcticjournal.com/opinion/1729/hypocrisy-its-whats-dinner (http://arcticjournal.com/opinion/1729/hypocrisy-its-whats-dinner)

http://www.nammco.no/assets/Publications/Hunting-Methods-Committee/Final-Report-Export-Group-meeting-assessing-hunting-methods-for-small-cetacean.pdf (http://www.nammco.no/assets/Publications/Hunting-Methods-Committee/Final-Report-Export-Group-meeting-assessing-hunting-methods-for-small-cetacean.pdf)

If there is a political potential in it will  be related to security, border control  and Sea Sheppard's Sleppið Grindini campaign, which continues to October.

Immigration and police are union matters, so the Faroese can not stop the activists, but rely on Danish authorities - but the Danish government (and opposition) has backed the Faroese and sent a couple of naval vessels up there among other things. I doubt the lack of Faroese control of the maritime borders and airport security can be politicized. Maybe if th activists commits violence of some sorts and the police can be blamed somehow.

I love the irony in the anti-grindadráp campaign. The grindadráp is a example of a indigenous people hunting in traditional ways (except for improvements to inflict less pain on the animals), in sustainable manners and with a very small carbon foot print. The activists on the other waste large resources (and placew a large carbon foot print on the planet while doing it) trying to lower the life quality of the Faroese people and make them waste more resource to get food to the islands.

Themes in this election:

Credibility. Did Kaj Leo Johannesen (and Kari Høygaard from the Home Rule Party) lie in tunnel-gate (this is the Faroes..), or were they just sloppy/misunderstood etc.?

The economy. The Faroes got a surplus on their public budget, but a recent report says they will need to improve the balance with 750 mio. Danish kroner a year to be able to fund their current level of welfare in the long run. This can probably not be done without a municipal reform. The Faroes have 30 municipalities, 3 hospitals and 48 public schools to a population of only 49,000. In 2012 voters said no to reduce this to 8 and closing the Southern hospital is unpopular as well. Given the Faroese geography and population distribution with many small, inaccesible and remote settlements this is a touchy subject, still there is no road to independence without doing it.

Fishing reform: Who gets what? Should the current quota system with free distribution of fishing quotas to established fishing families stay on (government), or should they be put on auction for the benefit of the public (opposition). Some people have become multi-millionaires by reselling their mackerel quotas, it is hard to keep foreign capital out and the system blocks new people (incl. youngs) from entering fishing. Fishing is still responsible for 97% of the islands export and the center of the economy.

Danish state grant. A Classic. The Faroes gets ca. 650 mio. Danish kroner a year (= 110 mio. $). The right wing separatists wants to lower it by cutting the public sector. The Union Party believes the Faroes should ask for more and the SDs think that the Faroese welfare state can not survive without it. Republic wants to roll it back gradually - but often have difficulty explaining where the money will come from. Except hoping to find enough oil ;)


Possible themes:

Grindadrap and border security. Unlikely, but a possibility if Things go bad. Should the Faroese get their own police force and coast guard? And how will they pay for it?

Syrian war refugees. Should the Faroe Islands take 1% of Danish refugees (proportional to share of population)? KLJ suggested it and got in trouble with his own right wing and PP - he had to

Gay marriage: Is it time to get it done? Should there be a referendum?

Population loss. Young people - especially women - staying in Denmark after finishing their education. Separatists claim it is because of the Faroese societ being so intervowen with the Danish.

Bad day for KLJ yesterday..

In the last parliamentary assembly  before the official campaign starts the Løgting passed a motion that sharply criticized Kaj Leo Johannesen and former Minister of the Interior Kari Højgård from the Home Rule Party for lying to Parliament.

Republic and Progress then tried to further humiliate KLJ by demanding a vote of no confidence. 14 voted for it, 9 against and 10 blank. You need an outright majority to pass a vote of no confidence in the Løgting, so Johannesen can stay on as PM during the campaign, but the result is brutal.

Republic, SD and - ironically - Kari Højgaard voted for the motion. The chairman of the Peoples Party parliamentary group Jakup Mikkelsen joined the opposition and voted for the motion.

10 of 20 members of the governing coalition voted blank - including 3 Union Party MPs (among them deputy chairman Bardur Nielsen)  and 7 out of 9 MPs from the Peopless Party (incl. their party chairman Jørgen Niclasen).

Only 6 Union Party MPs, the 2 Centre Party MPs  and the Speaker Jógvan á Lakjuni from the Peoples Party supported Johannesen.

Even if the Union Party somehow manages to get a decent election (not sure how..) his position is clearly untenable.

Note: I had some wrong info about the exact distribution of votes, which is now corrected. The Centre Party supported Johannesen, but only one PP supported him, so it is even worse than I thought. PP and UP will not be able to govern together after this.

If the Union Party does poorly (looks pretty likely that they will?), which party is most likely to come out on top at this point?

I think it is most likely that the Social Democrats will, they are unionist and can pick up some Union Party moderates, but the Peoples Party leadership is trying to distanced itself from the government and take over the leadership of the centre-right. Still, with the moderate Union Party divided as to how they should react to  this "scandal" (Faroese politics is generally relatively clean, so this is a big deal for them) I think the left will win, with a good result for both SD and Republic, like the spring polls indicated. PP is a quite right wing party with a marginal tax on 40% and only public pensions to the very poor on their program, so they are unlikely to be able to keep centrist voters in the centre-right if the Union Party goes down + many unionist voters  would never vote for a separatist party anyway.

The joker is Poul Michelsen and Progress, they have polled really well in some polls in spring, if they still get a lot of protest votes, that will make it quite messy, but they are unlikely to cut into the Union Party base, because it is a separatist party. Many young people are less committed to the whole unionist/separatist divide than former generations and they may go for Progress (if they are centre-right leaning anyway). It is economically even furter right than PP, but has the whole populist/anti-establishment thing going for them.

But we are waiting for the first poll.

First poll with 2011 results in bold:

Social Democrats 23,0% and 8 (+3)  (17,7)
Republic 20,2% and 7 (+1)  (18,3)

Centre Party 4,7% and 2 (-)  (6,2)
Home Rule Party 2,9% and 0 (-1)   (4,7)

Union Party 19,0% and 6 (-3)  (24,7)
Peoples Party 18,6% and 6 (-3)  (22,5)

Progress 11,6% and 4 (+3)  (6,3)

So gains for the left, but they need the SoCons in the Centre Party to form a majority and Progress is gaining a lot.  Also, the oldest party in the Faroes may not get represented for the first time ever (they are at 2,9%, so it is close and well within the margin of error).

Not really sure why the pollster gives the Centre Party 2 and Home Rule zero on those numbers. Seems it would be one for each.

So, if Republic were to hypothetically get the highest, would they have a mandate for an independence referendum?

Doesn't really matter if they get the highest. Any majority can call a referendum. But since there is no majority for it in the population at the moment, they wont.

There is already a separatist majority in the present Løgting. So if it had been likely to succeed the separatist parties could have formed a government and went ahead with it. There was a PP, Republic, Home Rule coalition in 1998-2002 (extended with the Centre Party 2002-04), which tried to find a way to finance it, but they failed. Such a coalition is unlikely because PP is under pressure from Progress. So working with the left is not going to be easy for them.

Republic is going for a Red Coaliton with SD, but if they fail to get a majority between them, it gets more complicated.

The extended self government that the Faroe Islands got in 2005 allows them to secede unilaterally if there is a majority in a referendum, the same applies for Greenland under their 2009 self government agreement.

The whole things is complicated and the dividing lines between unionists and separatists are a lot less clear than they used to be:

For starters all Faroese parties agree that the country ought to have its own constitution in order to regulate its relationship with Denmark (but this is against the Danish 1953 constitution, which defines the realm as a unitary state - so legally not an easy thing to do).

And even unionists want more independence. Johannesen shocked the traditionalists in his own party in 2012, when he said that he thought that Denmark, Greenland and the Faroes would be three independent countries joined together in a confederation within 20 years. His argument was that the Faroes have already taken back 8 of the 23 areas that they are allowed to run under the 2005 agreement and that within 20 years they would have taken over the last 15 and then independence would be the logical next step. He also imagined the Faroes having their own seat in the UN and in WTO (Denmark and the Faroes often have diverging interests in trade matters).
He did emphasize that there are strong cultural, family and business ties between Demark and the Faroes and that "getting 80 Faeroese embassies around the world would be pointless" and that defence should also be a common responsibility. So he imagined a close cooperation between the three countries. He also pointed out that Copenhagen is the largest Faroese city with more Faroese living there than in Torshavn. So the Faroes are linked to Denmark whether the separatists like it or not (Denmark and the Faroe Islands have sort of a miniature version of the US/Puerto Rico relationship).

He claimed Denmark would likely be part of a EU-federation at that point and that no country is really sovereign anymore, so the whole sovereignty  issue is pointless.

This of course alienated the traditionalist in his own party and had Bardur Nielsen not left politics for a top job in the private sector in 2007, it is likely he would have been in a position to topple him, but having only just returned to politics in 2011 he apparently lacked the necessary standing in the party.

Later KLJ then wanted to increase the Danish  state grant and return it to 2002 level, so he has been far from consistent.

The Faroese Socialdemocrats have argued that the Faroes and  Greenland should have real influence on Danish foregin policy. Among other things they should be consulted before the Danish government decides to use military force and have a right to veto such a move. An idea supported by the Danish left wing.

When all that is said the Faroes have real problems with a health care system that, among others probems, lacks 50  doctors (a lot in such a small community) and child poverty. As mentioned earlier economists say they are going to lack 750 mio. Danish kroner a year in order to finance their welfare system long term - so it will not be easy to finance independence.

Republic says the Faroes are using their own resources to fund their wealthiest citizens (= Big Fishing and home owners), while using Danish money for welfare to poor people. They point out that the state grant is only 4% of the Faroese GDP and believe it could be eliminated in 6-8 years. But this would require taxing the rich harder and cutting various subsidies and tax breaks to the private sector. Not the way the right wing separatists wants to go (and then there is the touchy subject of municipal reform).

While Progress and PP basically wants to eliminate the Faroese universal welfare state and create a more "North American" social model in order to create the growth in the private sector that could finance a Faroese nation state.

A major obstacle for the separatists is that the Faroese distrust their own politicians and are reluctant to give them sole responsibility for their society. They may vote for separatist parties, but when push comes to shove they simply do not feel confident, that their own political elite will be able to run the country in a sensible manner.

Republic and PP argue that it is having Denmark as a sponsor that makes the political class tend to be irresponsible, and that independence is the best cure for political irresponsibility, but that is a hard sell to voters.

Perhaps KLJs idea that independence will come gradually and end in some sort of either de jure or de facto confederation will be the most likely path forward.

Poll on whether KLJ should resign:

Yes 74,6
No 18,7
Dunno 6,7

Subsamples are pretty small, but they follow a predictable pattern:

Yes:

Progress 100%
Republic 94,8
SocDems 88,8
Home Rule 72,7
Peoples Party 56,9
Centre Party 54,5
Union Party 42,9


Preferred PM:

Aksel V. Johannesen (SD) 35%
KLJ 5%
Someone else (unspecified) 31%
Dunno 29%

A note on possible coalitions. The Faroes have never had a minority government (like Iceland and Greenland). It is not forbidden,  but not the way things are done in North Atlantic politics.
Their parties ally in some odd combos once in a while (kinda have with two cross cutting cleavages). However, one combo has never been tried - and is extremely unlikely: Union Party/Republic, since they are opposite on everything. This time SD leader Aksel Johannesen has also ruled out the Peoples Party as partner (simply too right wing). It is unclear whether the other parties consider Progress government material at all, and whether party owner Poul Michelsen would want to enter government - it would ruin his populist appeal pretty quickly. The Home Rule Party has often been the kit that kept diverse coalitions together, so without them it gets harder.

Using the poll you get the following combos:

- Republic, SD, Centre (17) the most economically leftist possibility and the most likely with this result. Republic would not be too happy about it, though.

- Republic, PP, Progress (17) the left/right prepare independence coalition, very unlikely in the current climate and made harder by the absence of Home Rule as mediators.

- Republic, SD, Progress (19), socially progressive, and could clean up business subsidies, skewed distribution of fishing quotas etc. but would require Progress to ditch their low tax stuff. Seems unlikely, but would depend on unpredictable Poul Michelsen. Only combo that gets gay marriage legalized.

- Union, PP, Progress, Centre have 18 seats for an economically right wing government, but Progress voters distrust the Union Party and many of them also hate the SocCons in the Centre Party + UP/PP are fed up with each other - as the vote of no confidence showed. Unlikely.

Other combos, that might come into play if polls change a bit: SD, Centre, Union (16), the across the aisle option, is one seat short of a majority. SD/Republic two seats short.

KLJ says he wants to "work together" with the Social Democrats after the election. So it seems he is hoping for an SD-Centre-Union Party majority. The Centre Party would prefer this to Republic-SD-Centre as well.

He also says the chance of UP and Republic being in government together is "0,1%". So he doesn't rule it out completely ;)

2011 results for the 60 precincts:

http://kvf.fo/val/l2011

There are sharp differences between various parts of the islands (sometimes even neighbouring settlements). Suduroy in the south is the SD stronghold, the six Norðoyar in the NE around Klaksvik is a PP stronghold, while Eysturoy is the UP heartland. PP used to be very strong in the southern part of the main island Streymoy, but this is less pronounced today. You also have separatist areas where Republic and PP share the vote. The Faroes would make for a fascinating map.

Torshavn incl. Hoyvik (same precinct) has around a third of the votes. Its southern suburb Agrir 4% and the second largest town Klaksvik 10%. The rest is spread out. Turnout is very high with 86,6% last time and 90%+ in the small places. Tiny Hattarvik on Fugloy even managed a 100% turnout in 2011 (all 15 of them - 11 PP votes and 4 Republic). The vast majority of votes are personal. Only the Union Party has a significant share of list votes.

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Strongholds (defined as 34%+ in the 2011 election - I used 34% as the limit to include Klaksvik as a PP stronghold). No less than 37 of 60 precincts have a 34%+ party. Sandur and Husar have two - Sandur being a separatist stronghold with Republic and PP on top, and Husar a ditto unionist with Union Party and SD tied on top.

Islands codes:

Nordoyar (N)
Eysturoy (E)
Stremoy (incl. surrounding islands) (ST)
Vagar (incl. Mykines) (V)
Sandoy (incl. Skuvoy) (SA)
Suduroy (SU)


Republic:

Velbastadur 49,1 (ST-south end)
Haraldssund 43,2 (N)
Sandur 42,8 (SA)
Mikladalur 42,4 (N)
Gjogv 37,9 (E-far north)


SD:

Dalur 70,0 (SA)
Porkeri 55,4 (SU)
Skopun 52,5 (SA)
Tvøroyar 48,4 (SU)
Hov 41,9 (SU)
Haldarsvik 41,2 (ST-north end)
Husar 35,1 (N)
Hosvik 35,1 (ST-center)
Sumba 34,8 (SU)
Famjin 34,7 (SU)
Skuvoya 34,4 (SA)


Home Rule:

Kirkja 44,4 (N)


Union Party:

Toftir 52,6 (E)
Strendur 42,8 (E)
Oyndarfjørdur 40,2 (E)
Oyrarbakki 40,7 (E)
Mykines 40,0 (V-west of main island)
Skali 37,7 (E)
Sørvagur 36,1 (V)
Husar 35,1 (N)


Peoples Party:

Hattarvik 73,3 (N)
Husavik 62,9 (SA)
Vidareid 54,5 (N)
Lopra 51,1 (SU)
Fossanes (=Hvannasund) 50,4 (N)
Svinoy 48,0 (N)
Bøur 43,8 (V)
Hestur 40,0 (ST-south of main island)
Hvalvik 37,8 (ST-center)
Hvalba 35,1 (SU)
Klaksvik 34,8 (N)
Sandur 34,8 (SA)

The strongholds for the five old parties mostly follow historical patterns. From the 20s onwards ocean going fishing transformed the Faroes from a peasant society with coastal fishing as a supplement to a fishing nation with much of the non-sea going population working in the land based fishing industry. In the areas there this happened in a classic capitalist manner with fishermen being underpaid wage earners (or in the beginning being paid in credit by the local merchant = losing everything if he went bankrupt, as many did after 1929) you got SD dominance. In the areas where fishermen teamed up (often also with land based investors) and shared the risk according to invested capital the Peoples Party quickly became dominant after it was founded in 1939 (this was mostly  old Home Rule Party areas) and in the fertile areas where farming continued to be fairly important the Union Party remained strong. The Home Rule Party retains strength in a few places, where they have had good local representatives. It is in areas that should otherwise have gone PP.

Republic having an ideologically motivated and diverse coalition makes it harder to explain what areas they gained prominence in, but basically those would be areas with a strong pro-independence tradition combined with both low free church/evangelical sect influence and low union influence.

Politics in Torshavn and Klaksvik is dominated by the professional middle class and more issue based  mixed with ideological voting. Parties are often split between urban and "coastal" voting blocs.

Then, in the most propable option, the Centre Party gets involved.

Would this completely rule out same-sex marriage?

And in case this party is out of the coalition, how long do you think it would take before same-sex marriage is implemented, taking into account the proposals of 2014? Could it be within this year?

If the Centre Party (or Peoples Party) is part of the coalition, that rules out gay marriage.

Since they can just implement the Danish rules it could happen within 3-4 months if they decided to do it.

(Greenland voted on it on May 26 and it takes effect from October 1)

However, according to the polls you included here, the Centre Party could be even out of the assembly.

It is curious to see the different positions within the SD. MPs like Rigmor Dam were actively campaigning for same-sex marriage, would they vote for the Centre Party and rule it out?

Also, I talked to a Faroese MP about a year ago and he told me that, even if he was in favor of same-sex marriage, he was skeptical about the polls showing so much support among population. He further added that for those who were OK with it, it was not a major or important issue, but for those against it, it could be decisive when they vote.

1) The Centre Party has a very loyal core electorate, (evangelical sects), they will be guaranteed to get at least one seat and most likely two (not sure what polls you are referring to - the one I posted gave them two).

2) SD has a SoCon wing, so does other SDs (Australian ALP very much so, even British Labour has SoCons). Given that the Faroese party is strong in small settlements in the south, this is hardly surprising.

3) Not sure what you mean with SD voting for the Centre Party. SD may need the Centre Party, and in that case they will postpone gay marriage, but that is hardly "voting for them". If there is a vote people like Dam will just abstain, but that is a rather unlikely scenario. Most likely if SD and Republic forms a government with the Centre Party there will be no vote on gay marriage  (unless Progress uses it to tease the government), and the issue will be off the table for another four years. Republic will have more trouble postponing gay marriage once again, but if working with the Centre Party is their only way of getting something even remotely leftist done on other issues, they will prioritize other issues,

4) SoCons will be very motivated to block gay marriage, but legalizing it is also important for many young people and urban liberals - one tenth of the population participates in the annual gay pride parade to demonstrate their solidarity, so it does matter to some segments - especially young people.

Yes sorry, I meant the SD agreeing on a coalition with the Centre Party.

It seems, though, that same-sex marriage is a secondary issue over there, as they would prioritize other matters.

In your opinion, how likely is the scenario of an election result where Republican/SD alone get the 17 seats?

The tradition on the Faroes is that MPs are free to vote as they please on ethical matters, but this is of course different if you are in government with a party that has an "ethical" issue among its core priorities.

In this case those who disagree with the coalition parther would either abstain or vote blank. And since the Peoples Party and about half the Union Party are against gay marriage, Republic and, say, 3/4 of SD abstaining and a quarter of SD voting against would mean a very clear "No".

What was unusual in the 2014 vote was that KLJ actively ordered UP MPs to vote against the proposal instead of letting them vote blank or abstain. There is no chance Aksel Johannessen could do something similar, but it won't matter.

Yes, but my question was more general. I meant whether Republicans and SD, alone, the 1st of September, could get 17 seats in parliament (e.g. 9 for SD, 8 for Republicans), so that alone could form a a government coalition without any other party. How likely could this be?

Not sure, probably quite low (maybe 15-20%). There was one poll earlier this year giving them a "red majority". Last pre-summer poll and the new one one has Progress riding high, and if they take the protest votes I think the left gets either 15 or 16 seats. Another option is a government including the Home Rule Party. They has been in opposition since 2013 and I still think they will end up getting a seat. They have only ever been out of parliament 1943-46 (with fewer seats back then) and seems always to make it in the end.

Republic - SD - Home Rule getting 17 seats could give a socially liberal coalition and is quite likely. If they get 17 I think those three parties would form new government, even if Home Rule may prefer SD - Home Rule - Union. The Union Party is internally split and SD seems determined to get Republic on board (even though Aksel J. has declined to form a formal Red Coalition as his predecessor Joannes Eidesgaard has suggested and is free to negotiate to the right).

Turns out there is a formal threshold of 1/33, which is why Home Rule was out in that poll. The party has since added two public figures to their list. Prominent lawyer and ex-MP Bjørn á Heygum + Zakarias Wang, a well known 75 year old author, activist and municipal pol in Torshavn, who left Republic after 48 years, because they have accepted Danish party aid for their votes in the Folketing election (sell outs..). According to Faroese journos this reinforcement should be enough to put them over the threshold.

Is not the current MP of the Home Rule Party part of the scandal of the tunnel too?

Still, if they get 16 only with theHomeRule Party, they will need the Centre

Do you know when a new poll is released?

Yes, which is why they are polling so low in the first place. Kari Høygaard was Minister of the Interior and responsible for the project. The party is split between coastal craftsmen and fishermen vs. urban academics and other liberal middle class townies, and Høygaard represented the coastal/blue collar wing. The current leader is the Mayor of Klaksvik Jógvan Skorheim, who was elected by a Republic-SD-Home Rule coalition. So he is used to the centre-left combo and as a businessman and townie he is close to the socially liberal academic wing (but even the blue collar types in HR are fairly socially liberal).

Faroese governments are rarely based on simple left/right coalitions, the current government was an exception, and the talk of a red coalition is motivated by a desire to reverse some of the policies of the centre-right government.

I doubt a Republic-SD-Centre-Home Rule government would be likely. Too many parties and too diverse interests. In that case other combos would come into play depending on the seat distribution. If a four party coalition is needed SD-Union-Home Rule-Centre would be the most likely ("Centrists United").

So the Home Rule Party changes its leader but not the UP. But of a suicide for the UP, but maybe things work differently in the Faroe.

Høygaard went voluntarily back in April. He is 64 and was chairman 2003-10, but had to return in 2011 after internal infighting threatened to split the party. Having already retired once he was not interested in staying on forever now that they have a suitable replacement. Skorheim is 33, so it is a natural generational change. Skorheim was the leader of their youth org and as a non-academic, non-manual, non-Torshavn townie he is acceptable to both wings.

Things are different in the Union Party, where the obvious successor is far more polarizing. Bardur Nielsen leads the internal opposition and is to the right of Johannessen. He was Minister of Finance 2004-07, when he left for a private sector top job (only to return to politics in 2011). Otherwise he would have been leader now. Johannessen is socially progressive (pro gay marriage, wants to take a fair share of Danish refugees etc.) and he is soft on unionism (to the point of looking like a moderate separatist). Some people liked that, many did not.  The "modernizers" in the party do not want Nielsen and the traditionalists to take over.

Johannesen was under a lot of pressure to resign, but he called the election before his critics had time to mount a challenge.

But could personal vote actually give more votes to the traditionalists in the party? Sorry about my ignorance but I do not jnow how the personal vote qorks over there.

Yeah, most votes are personal and a candidates position on the list matters next to nothing, so even though UP has a higher share of list votes (600 last time) than the other parties personal votes will be crucial.

Given that the "scandal" only amounts to offering a private company a break fee of one million Danish kroner (c. 150.000 $) if parliament did not approve a contract and then lying about it, some voters will think it is no big deal and continue to support Johannessen given that he had no personal financial gain from it.

Also, KLJ is a former professional athlete (both soccer goalie and handball player), who was personally popular long before he entered politics and the number of personal votes he gets will be decisive. If he retains most of his large personal vote he might be able to hang on as leader.

Personal votes matters on the Faroes. Fx. in municipal elections the golden rule is whoever gets the most personal votes on the winning list gets to be Mayor. Not the one who happens to top the list.

No idea, only Gallup and local company Fynd poll the Faroes. The poll we got was from Fynd. So I assume Gallup will release one fairly soon.

Looking at the top 5 of personal votes for the big parties, their party leaders are generally well ahead, with the exception of PP, where Annika Olsen and Jacob Vestergaard were far more popular than the party leader (Niclasen) and parliamentary leader (Mikkelsen), but since Olsen is from Torshavn and Vestergaard from the south, they are not considered suitable leaders by the old guard. Annika Olsen actually tried to become leader after the election, but was blocked by their executive committee.

If Bardur Nielsen gets more personal votes than KLJ that would give him a good basis for a challenge, but KLJ may very well keep a sizeable portion of his personal votes even if the party loses.

Peoples Party: List: 183
Annika Olsen 1.344
Jacob Vestergaard 1.048
Jákup Mikkelsen 455
Jørgen Niclasen 382
Elsebeth Mercedis Gunnleygsdóttur 344


Union Party: List 611
Kaj Leo Johannesen 1.979
Bárður Nielsen 872
Bjørn Kalsø 704
Rósa Samuelsen 480
Alfred Olsen 473


SD: List 295
Aksel V Johannesen 1.204
Kristin Michelsen 393
Gerhard Lognberg344
Rigmor Dam 271
Henrik Old 265

Republic: List 179
Høgni Hoydal 1.054
Kristina Háfoss 451
Bjørt Samuelsen 365
Gunnvør Balle 358
Páll á Reynatúgvu 332

It looks complicated. But it seems the case of the tunnel cannot be regarded as corruption but instead a a mistake in the management.

It is not corruption, but simply by-passing parliament and lying about it to the MPs afterwards - and then KLJ being stupid and/or arrogant enough to claim he did not lie, but merely gave "incorrect information". The last part is the one the Faroese tend to focus on. It might be worse for KLJ because he had a reputation of being a straight talker and "a little to honest for politics" - but it is hard to say if his personal vote will collapse or merely go down a little.

Høygaard admitted he screwed up and voted for the critique of him and KLJ (which was unanimous). But then he is on his way out of politics anyway.

To me, it looks worse the supposed which surrounded Lars Lokke in Denmark.

But those were not proven and he is PM anyway.

An important difference is that Denmark has bloc politics, so LLR could continue even if his party lost. The Faroes have no established blocs, so a partys own strength is decisive.

Also oftenthe right wing vote is underestimated in the polls

Atleast in my country no one votes for the conservatives and then, voila

But the UP is actually not that conservative as the PP

There is no systematic under polling of the centre-right in Faroese polls. It was actually the other way round with the Folketing election, where the left (especially Republic) under polled quite a lot, but got both seats in the end (even though the dynamic is a bit different in Løgting elections, because socio-economic factors play a larger role).

UP is in principle not a Conservative party, but a Liberal, but as all Agrarian-Liberal parties in Scandinavia that means they got some SoCon elements, because rural roots = some cultural conservatism. PP is a very right wing party by Scandinavian standards, in Denmark only Liberal Alliance has a similarly right wing economic policy and no Swedish party would be as right wing as them (at least not one represented in parliament).

How right wing would the PP be in moral terms?
As far asi know, Faroe Islands is more religious than any other Scandinavian country

It also seems strange to me why the UP and the PP were forming coalition with the Centre Party as well, and not only with the Home Rule Party, as that would be enough for them.

Yeah, the Faroes is clearly the most socially conservative Nordic country (even though some parts of western Norway and rural Finland are similar).

PP defines itself as build upon Christian values, it is against abortion, euthanasia, gay marriage, gay adoption, "promotion of gay life style" in schools, any legalization of drugs and is generally in favor of traditional family values, so I would consider it quite socially conservative, at least for a Scandinavian party.

This also explains why they wanted the Centre Party as part of the coalition as a supplement to the social liberal Home Rule Party. The other reason was that 17 seats was simply not considered safe enough for a workable majority (at that time they did not know that they would get 1 defector from Progress and 1 from SD).

PP is officially defined as a "liberal, social and democratic party", that is they deny that they are Conservatives.. and when Poul Michelsen broke away it was because he claimed they were hypocritical about both economic and social liberalism and not radical enough on separatism. It is easier to understand the last two claims, than the first, but Michelsen probably mainly hinted on them being in favour of various subsides and tax breaks for Big Fishing and established businesses, which he saw as a threat to free competition.

Taking into account that some seats danced in the last period, I can understand why a coalition wants something more than mere 17 seats. But if the PP has ended in bad terms with UP, which party could they ally with? In case figures matched, would they be able to be allies of the Republic Party,as they both are pro-independence?

The PP, Home Rule, Republic combo is only relevant when there is a chance of moving ahead with the independence agenda, and in the current economic climate with big structural challenges ahead this seems impossible, but you never know.The bad experience from 1998-2004 is still a factor and it is a huge ideological gap to bridge. Republics solution regarding how to make the economy ready for independence (tax the rich, cut subsides, close tax loopholes) is contrary to the interests of PPs core electorate.

I doubt PP will be part of a new government, since SD do not want them and the UP/PP alliance seems in shambles. I guess if Bardur Nielsen takes over UP and the non-Progress centre-right somehow retains a majority that is a possibility, but that seems far fetched.

Do you think that in the current climate, a 17 seats only coalition would be considered strong enough? Even if SD and Republic by themselves alone reach that figure.

Well, there was one deserter from SD to Union in the last term, but I still think they will try if those two parties get a majority. But that looks unlikely now.

New poll from Fynd:

Fólkaflokkurin 18.3 (PP) 6
Sambandsflokkurin 21.1 (Union) 7
Javnaðarflokkurin 21.3 (SD) 7
Nýtt Sjálvstýri 4.2 (Home Rule) 1
Tjóðveldi 17.6 (Republic) 6
Framsókn 11.7 (Progress) 4
Miðflokkurin 5.9 (Centre) 2

Compared to the 2011 election this is:

PP -2
UP -1
Progress +2
SD +1

So only a marginal shift leftwards from one of the most right wing results in decades. It will be a major flop for the Faroese left if this is the result.

Not sure what to make of this. The current coalition only has 15 (and is deeply divided anyway).

Centrists United (SD-Centre-Home Rule-UP) has 17 (rather weak for such a broad coalition).

The reform/anti-old boys network-coalition of Republic, SD and Progress has 17. A Faroese politologist actually mentioned that as one of the likeliest options after the last poll. I am still more skeptical. But it would be interesting.

The poll has an economically right wing majority of PP-UP-Progress on 17, but that is not a workable option.

A lot will depend on wether Poul Michelsen wants to be in government or not.

The campaign so far:

The campaign has generally moved way from Tunnelgate and entered a populist phase where everybody are promising lower taxes for people with low incomes.

The current government introduced a flat tax in 2011 on request from PP, leading to big gains for the wealthy, but now PP wants taxes credits for low income families.  Generally the left wants progressive taxation reintroduced to finance lower taxes for low income people, while the centre-right wants various tax credits or just lower taxes all around (Progress).

The Centre Party is going all in against the gay threat. Party leader Jenis av Rana has compared LGTB activists to Sea Shepherd, and said both organizations try to undermine Faroese society, but while Sea Shepard only bothers the Faroese 2-3 months a years, LGTB activists are a threat all year long and a challenge to Our Lord himself. Jenis av Rani also wants a ban of Gay Pride parade in connection with the national day Ólavsøka and wants the gay pride parade removed from central Torshavn and relocated to an area in Hoyvik on the outskirts of Torshavn. This is the most single issue anti-gay election campaign the Centre Party has ever led. It seems to get them back to 6%, but may backfire among potential coalition partners. Progress or Republic and CP in the same coalition seems even more impossible after this. Home Rule or SD/CP may also be unrealistic.

Fishing quotas: Should they still be handed out for free to people who are or once were fishermen, only for some of them to become multimillionaires by re-selling quotas to others. This practice obviously makes it almost impossible for new people to enter fishing and Faroese straw men buying quotas for foreign companies is a growing problem.

Republic, SD, Home Rule and Progress wants this changed. UP, PP and Centre are pro-status quo. Some in UP wants minor reforms.

(treating fishing quotas as property rights is what caused the Icelandic financial bubble and eventual crash - generally a very stupid idea, but obviously popular among those who benefit)

The current campaign by the Centre Party seems a bit suicidal. The whole reason for the party existing in the first place is that SoCons felled 1) that PP  was only paying lip service to their causes 2)  that they wanted a party positioned in the middle on both the socio-economic and separatist/unionist divide in order to be able to work with both sides to get their demands through. The current anti-gay rage seems to make it impossible for them to work with the left, which makes them kinda meaningless.

Looking at the two polls:

                                  PP       Union       SD     Home Rule    Republic    Progress    Centre
Fynd 20. august 2015   18,3 %   21,1 %   21,3 %   4,2 %   17,6 %   11,7 %   5,9 %
Fynd 6. august 2015   18,6 %   19,0 %   23,0 %   2,9 %   20,2 %   11,6 %   4,7 %

We got PP and Progress being stable, Republic losing quite a bit, partially to Zakarias Wang and Home Rule (a leftist activist claiming they are soft on separatism is an unexpected challenge for them - could be fun if Wang actually gets the Home Rule seat, might ruffle some feathers). Republic lose a bit more in this poll, however. Centre picks up 1,2% from homophobes across the board (PP, Union, SD). Union picks up around 2% ans SD lose almost as much. Faroese politics is still pretty direct campaigning and KJL is an excellent "community hall" campaigner, so he has probably convinced some unionist centrists to swing from SD to Union. It seems the Union Party has put their differences on hold until after the election.  

Of course movements are also more complex in a multiparty system, but this seems like the obvious explanations. The poll may of course also be off, as the Fynds Folketings polls were, but it is easier to poll the Legating with voting patterns being more predictable and weighing therefore easier.

There should be a final Fynd poll on the 27th, I am still hoping Gallup will poll this race once.

The antiGay position seems to increase the Centre Party. Even id it is out of a coalition, would it mean that the other parties would hesitate/delay the issue, at least until next year, if the centre party increases due to thiis issue? Or maybe send it to referendum?

How likely would SD and UP would be to sacrifice gay marriage to ge an agreement with centre?

The progress party seems too neoliberal in economy, isnt it? And that seems a big issue now.

I mean, economy seems the big issue. Would a left wing coalition with the Progress Party actually work? You sayyiu are skeptical.

Homophobia increases the Centre vote a bit, but we are talking about an increase of 1-1,5%. So it will not influence the other parties.

Progress is libertarian on economics, but they may be willing to delay that part of their agenda in order to obtain other goals - including a fair tax system and market based quota system. I think centre has gone to far for SD this time, but you never know. UP would definitely be willing to postpone gay marriage, at it is not part of their platform and they are internally divided (so is SD, but with a very clear Yes majority).

They could make it for, say, 2 years in order to modernise the country on both social issues, taxes/loopholes, subsidies, agricultural law (lots of anachronisms) and fishing quotas. It is difficult to see how Progress obtains their goal of a genuine free market economy, unless they take it in two steps and use the left to get rid of favouritism of vested interests first  before they make the low tax/budget cut stuff with the centre-right. I am just not sure if they are serious or prefer the populist profile and scoring cheap points.

Another social issue is abortion, where the Faroes retained the Danish 1956 law when Denmark (and Greenland) got free abortion in 1973.  This ban is then systematically undermined by liberal doctors giving dispensations. So a peculiar situations, and on Centre could have chosen to mobilize ion instead of using homophobia.

It seems things are dancing a bit, from what you say the tunnel issue is no longer central in the campaign and UP is resisting

Progress seems unstable, but you lll never know. All this Faroese politics seem far too unpredictable.

What about a three big parties coalition?

It has moved steadily to the right from the red majority in early spring, so not sure it is "dancing", there has been a slow recovery in the centre-rights popularity. It is just that many observers had expected Tunnelgate to be a game changer, and it seems not to be.

That there is no direct way to predict which government will be formed even after you got the election results has always been a big part of the charm of Faroese politics for me. Given how many two party and multi party organized as two bloc systems there are (just look how stale Danish politics has become with the Red Bloc/Blue Bloc division) this is rather intriguing.

It is actually more closed this time, because SD is ruling out PP and still hopes to be able to reinstate progressive taxation through some Red Alliance + change-coalition, while the pro-independence option is a bit irrelevant at the moment. so more Left/Right than usual.

SD has ruled out PP quite adamantly and Republic and UP never ally, so there are no "3 of Big 4" combos in play.

Politics makes strange bedmates :)

When should the new government be formed? two weeks time?

It took 16 days to form the current coalition, but it might take a coupe of weeks longer this time, since it will probably include some of the above mentioned "strange bedfellows".

So that it could even be formed in October. And in the meantime? what happens? Is the current government still running?

Yes. One of the main reasons behind the vote of no confidence attempt was to block KLJ from having first call on forming the next government. If he had been toppled (or resigned), there would have been a caretaker administration and the biggest party would have had first call. Now he has the initiative (which will only matter if UP gets a decent result).

PP now brings the independence issue into the campaign with a proposal that the Faroes enter a free association with Denmark (similar to fx. Micronesia/US or NZ/Cook Islands), where DK only acts on behalf of the Faroes when requested to and all sovereignty rests with the Faroese. This is similar to a Siumut proposal in Greenland. They want bilateral negotiations and a referendum on the result.

Republic brings up their former proposal of a 2016 referendum on outright independence.

Current positions:

Home Rule: Gradual takeover of areas whenever the Faroes can afford it resulting in full independence at some point down in the future.

SD: Suppports a Faroese constitution and less dependency, but not independence "right now". Almost separatist at this point, but likely not in practice.

UP: Going back towards old school unionism, wants more Danish investments in Faroese healthcare.

Centre: Irrelevant discussion. No opinion.

Progress: Positive towards Republics suggestion of a fast track to independence.

PP has kept a low profile on independence for a long time, but them bringing this up now increases the likelihood of a PP-Progress-Republic coalition. Republic seems always to give in on the socio-economic stuff if they can get closer to independence. Still, it is hard to see them agree on the path with the right wingers.

SD is clearly trying to appear sufficiently willing to advance Faroese sovereignty to keep Republic tied to them.

New poll from Fynd today. Progress is losing ground to PP. May be the free association proposal, or (more likely) the talk about Progress allying with the left. UP down a bit. Their decline gives a cheap second seat to Home Rule. Centre on 6,7%. Difference to last poll in brackets.

PP 20,8 7 (+2,5)
UP 19,6 6 (-1,5)
SD 21,3 7 (-)
Home Rule 4,9 2 (+0,7)
Republic 18,0 6 (+0,4)   
Progress 8,7 3 (-3,0)
Centre 6,7 2 (+0,8)

Current government 15
Republic, SD, Home Rule (or Centre for that matter) 15
Republic, SD, Progress 16. Add Home Rule and you get 18 (only option that gives gay marriage)
Centrists United on 17
Independence now! (Republic, Progress, PP) on 16

This would be a really messy result given that anything involving Progress/Centre seems impossible and Progress/Union a stretch (and PP, UP, Progress is only at 16 anyway). Not sure Progress dares to ally with the centre-left if they get a mediocre result. Although Republic, SD, Home Rule and Progress might agree on a Faroese constitution and "a leap forward" on sovereignty (taking over all they can under the 2005 agreement). Centrists United may be tempting for the two Johannesens, but if one of the two Home Rulers is Zakarias Wang, that option is out. ;)

I'm only gonna make one prediction, and that is that Republic will top the poll. Not by much, but top the poll. And also that the coalition making process will be a clusterf**k.

Why should Republic top the poll? They have led an uninspired campaign and are polling fourth. You can't count on massive under polling. The dynamic in this is quite different than Folketing elections, which are much more volatile and unpredictable (since nobody's economic interests are at stake).

All the other three options are more logical: SD is the frontrunner and could very well keep a small lead, PP is on a roll and UP could bounce back on unionist voters seeking the real deal now that the independence question has been brought up.

Republic would need a near collapse of Home Rule or chipping away at least 2% from the SD left wing (and probably 3-3,5%). Both seems highly unlikely. Home Rule has led a great campaign and Skorheim has done well in debates while SD has positioned itself further left than in a long time.

Also not sure about the second. Faroese journos seem to assume the four opposition parties are now close to a mutual understanding about forming a coalition, so Republic, SD, Home Rule, Progress. Some even talk about an opposition "bloc", which is weird in a Faroese context. Their main uncertainty is whether Home Rule will be lured back to supporting the government.

In the last leader debate PP and SD quarreled about housing, Republic and Union about independence and Home Rule and Progress with Centre about gay marriage.

General perception seems to be: Tie, Union win, SocLib win (but homophobes won't care).

UP could very well bounce back on unionist voters going for the "real deal" now that the independence issue has been introduced.

Last poll from Fynd with difference to the previous one in brackets:

PP 20.4% (-0,4%)
UP 19.2% (-0,4)
SD 19.3% (-2,0%)
Home Rule 5.9% (+1,0)
Republic 16,5% (-1,5%)
Progress 11,2% (+2,5%)
Centre 7,4% (+0,7%)

Home Rule, Centre and Progress all gaining, while the left is losing even more ground and the two big centre-right parties are down a bit (well within the margin of error).

Seats:

PP 7   
UP 6   
SD 6   
Home Rule 2   
Republic 5   
Progress 4   
Centre 3

Only 11 seats to the left now. Still a narrow 17 seats majority together with the two other opposition parties, while the government is at 16 with Centre getting a third seat.

The three small parties get no less than 9 seats combined. It seems the gay marriage debate has benefitted both Progress, Centre and Home Rule.

Gallup is finally releasing a poll with a rather different picture: SD high, Republic at 19%+ and Home Rule near the threshold... One of the institutes will be dead wrong:

Gallup:
   
PP 18,2 %   6
UP 19,0 %   6
SD 22,9 % 8
Home Rule 3,1 % 1   
Republic 19,4 % 6   
Progress 10,6 % 4   
Centre 6,8 % 2

So 14 seats to the left and 19 to the opposition combined.

SD 3,6% higher, Republic 2,9% higher and PP 2.2% lower than Fynd, while Home Rule is 2,8% lower - at about half of the Fynd poll.

UP, Progress and Centre roughly on the same level (all slightly lower), but Centre misses the third seat in this one.

Neither of the polls have a majority for an "independence now" coalition. Republic, PP and Progress are at 16 in both.

Not really sure what to make of this. The Fynd poll is in better accordance with the general narrative about how the campaign is going, but on the other hand I find it doubtful if the left is really down to 35,8% combined.

After everything I have heard about how well Home Rule is doing it would be a big surprise if they end up anywhere near the threshold.

I tend to think the left must be somewhere in between the two polls and Home Rule at least on +4% and probably higher.

Other than that, who knows. It is a shame Gallup only released one poll, so there is no pattern.

Home Rule chairman Jogvan Skorheim has said that he wants KLJ out, but will not rule out supporting another PM from the current government parties and he also doesn't rule out working with Centre despite their battles. So basically Home Rule will sell their votes to the highest bidder (but this could get harder if Zakarias Wang is elected).

Given that KJL has the initiative and can not be toppled before he has had the chance to form a government the Home Rule demand could make it complicated. The question is how long KJL will try to hang on.

Republic leader Høgni Hoydal now unequivocally says the opposition parties should try to form a government, so no flirting with an independence coalition.

Election day is on - seems there will be the usual huge turnout.

Regarding the "bloc" thing a central aspect is that the two sides disagree on the fishing quota system and since fishing accounts for 97% of Faroese exports that is a crucial matter.

Republic, SD and Progress wants fishing quotas to be bought on auction and the profits benefitting the public budget (and help erase their 6 billion kroner national debt). Whereas the three government parties want to keep the current system where quotas are given to current fishermen/fishing companies and they are free to resell them to other Faroese residents (often netting multi million gains - there are big money in especially mackerel quotas). This system also excludes new entrants in the business, and has led to strawman problems with foreign companies buying up quotas, but it does give fishing communities a steady income.

Home Rule are somewhere in between on this (as in so many other matters).

So basically the left and the libertarians in Progress support a free market solution, while the other centre-right parties side with the vested interests in the business and a "do not rock the boat" approach.

For Progress and Republic it is also important that getting rid of the debt (or at least reducing it substantially) is a requirement for independence.

From what you say, it looks like, then, there will be a government SD, Republic, Progress, most likely?

If fishing cuotas are important and, on the other hand, they would pass other laws like same-sex marriage, that SD, Republic and Progress (in spite of being this one more right-wing), would be the most likely?

Yes, If those three parties get a majority that seems fairly certain, even if Progress hasn't committed to it (at least not publicly).

If they need Home Rule, that might complicate things.

when are the results expected?

And eould SD, if it gets the majority, be tempted to a SD, UP and CP?

You talked about Zakarias Wang, what is actually his role on this?

Legal equalizing of different kinds of farmers, maybe legal abortion (depending on how many SoCon SDs that get elected), free sale of alcohol (depending on how many SoCon SDs that get elected), closing various tax loopholes, cutting subsidies to businesses, lowering taxes for working poor and possibly all low income groups if their quota reform gives enough revenue. Increasing regulation of sea based fish farms (or if Progress gets their way establishing some cap n trade system for them).

They have do something about their health care sector, but I dunno what they will agree on.

Most likely they will try to speed up taking home the remaining areas that they can under the 2005 autonomy agreement and that will keep them busy. This will include courts, prisons and police.

It also depends whether Republic and Progress can pressure SD into working towards am independence referendum, but I doubt that. It is still at least a quasi-unionist party.

where is it possible to see a list of areas taken?

http://kvf.fo/val/l2015 (http://kvf.fo/val/l2015)

There was a news in Retsinformation about the Progress Party where it stood in favor of liberalization of almost anything. They seemed OK to enter into a government but that was time ago. If the Progress Party does not join the government that might be a big problem, but they have not ruled it out apparently.

24 of 60 polling places counted. Only small places in, but it looks pretty good for SD, Home Rule and Progress.

Kringvarp does not give national numbers yet.

8,2% counted:

A   Fólkaflokkurin   546   20,6   718   26,5   -5,8
B   Sambandsflokkurin   450   17,0   464   17,1   -0,1
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   757   28,6   681   25,1   +3,5
D   Nýtt Sjálvstýri   53   2,0   45   1,7   +0,3
E   Tjóðveldi   666   25,2   643   23,7   +1,5
F   Framsókn   82   3,1   82   3,0   +0,1
H   Miðflokkurin   94   3,6   81   3,0   +0,6
Atkvøður   2663       2714      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka   2988   89,1%           10/5


So far PP is losing big, SD winning and everything else is fairly stable. Although Republic and Centre are doing well.

Turnout at 89.1%

That seems pretty bad for the Peoples Party and good for SD.

UP seems unnafected

Right now the left is on 45,9 combined. Maybe Gallup had it right.

If PP goes down so much it will contradict some of the latest polls....

But is it my impression or the Progress Party is not going up as much as it was expected?

Vagur, the first "town" in (sixth largest) has the left up 11,8% and PP similarly down:

Vágur
Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 20:53
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A.    Fólkaflokkurin   144   16,5   241   28,3   -11,8
B.    Sambandsflokkurin   201   23,0   200   23,4   -0,4
C.    Javnaðarflokkurin   261   29,8   186   21,8   +8,0
D.    Nýtt Sjálvstýri   4   0,5   6   0,7   -0,2
E.    Tjóðveldi   234   26,7   195   22,9   +3,8
F.    Framsókn   5   0,6   5   0,6   0,0
H.    Miðflokkurin   26   3,0   20   2,3   +0,7
Atkvøður      878      853      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka      987   89,0%         3/0

If the other towns - incl. Torshavn - follow this pattern it will be a landslide.

yes PP down but UP has moved from -1.8 to +1.8 and the lead of SD has been reduced...is that correct?

I was looking at the totals: PP clearly very down. SD up. The rest, I do not know.

The towns:

1 Tórshavn 12.369
2 Klaksvík   4.601
3 Hoyvík  3.784 (suburb)
4 Argir   2.002 (suburb)
5 Fuglafjørður 1.493
6 Vágur 1.313
7 Vestmanna 1.200

Hoyvik is part of Torshavn polling district, so that is 1/3 of the total votes.

I havent counted the seats but, maybe, with this trend, SD and Republic alone may do it?

20% in. 44.1% to the left.

Samlað - 40 valstøð
20,1% upptalt (7316 av 36458)   Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 21:30
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A   Fólkaflokkurin   1327   20,4   1565   24,0   -3,6
B   Sambandsflokkurin   1465   22,6   1584   24,3   -1,7
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   1517   23,4   1393   21,3   +2,0
D   Nýtt Sjálvstýri   227   3,5   168   2,6   +0,9
E   Tjóðveldi   1347   20,7   1229   18,8   +1,9
F   Framsókn   281   4,3   272   4,2   +0,2
H   Miðflokkurin   333   5,1   317   4,9   +0,3
Atkvøður   6535       6528      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka   7316   89,3%           20/18

Sørvagur in. UP getting killed and SD gaining, PP doing okay out there.

Sørvágur
Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 21:29
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A.    Fólkaflokkurin   191   28,0   193   27,3   +0,7
B.    Sambandsflokkurin   165   24,2   245   34,6   -10,4
C.    Javnaðarflokkurin   156   22,9   117   16,5   +6,4
D.    Nýtt Sjálvstýri   13   1,9   6   0,8   +1,1
E.    Tjóðveldi   94   13,8   82   11,6   +2,2
F.    Framsókn   21   3,1   21   3,0   +0,1
H.    Miðflokkurin   41   6,0   44   6,2   -0,2
Atkvøður      690      708      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka      794   86,9%         3/6

Big left wing gain in Vestmanna:

Vestmanna
Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 21:39
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A.    Fólkaflokkurin   145   17,3   187   23,0   -5,7
B.    Sambandsflokkurin   201   24,0   260   32,0   -8,0
C.    Javnaðarflokkurin   180   21,5   104   12,8   +8,7
D.    Nýtt Sjálvstýri   6   0,7   65   8,0   -7,3
E.    Tjóðveldi   224   26,7   143   17,6   +9,1
F.    Framsókn   61   7,3   30   3,7   +3,6
H.    Miðflokkurin   21   2,5   24   3,0   -0,5
Atkvøður      843      813      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka      945   89,2%         1/4

Republic + SD up 17.8%.

18-15 to the opposition at 29.2%.

10 polling places out. Of them 4 towns and 3 places on the SD stronghold Suduroy.

Fuglafjørður +14,5% for the left.

Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 22:01
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A.    Fólkaflokkurin   211   21,5   233   23,8   -2,3
B.    Sambandsflokkurin   218   22,2   299   30,5   -8,3
C.    Javnaðarflokkurin   257   26,2   134   13,7   +12,5
D.    Nýtt Sjálvstýri   18   1,8   42   4,3   -2,5
E.    Tjóðveldi   204   20,8   184   18,8   +2,0
F.    Framsókn   45   4,6   54   5,5   -0,9
H.    Miðflokkurin   29   3,0   33   3,4   -0,4
Atkvøður      989      979      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka      1.092   90,6%         2/5

52 of 58 polling places counted. If Torshavn/Argir and Klaksvik votes like the other town its going to be a big victory. Of the remaining 3 settlements Tvøroyri is an SD stronghold.

It looks like that, lets see what happens.

Finally our French friend was right: Republic is doing better than expected.

Nah, he said they would top the poll. They are fourth.

57.6% to SD in Tvøroyri!

With 45% in it is 45.3% to the left:

Samlað - 53 valstøð

45,0% upptalt (16408 av 36458)   Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 22:21
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A   Fólkaflokkurin   3008   20,7   3395   23,8   -3,1
B   Sambandsflokkurin   3126   21,5   3749   26,3   -4,8
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   3749   25,8   2969   20,8   +4,9
D   Nýtt Sjálvstýri   459   3,2   440   3,1   +0,1
E   Tjóðveldi   2833   19,5   2391   16,8   +2,7
F   Framsókn   636   4,4   563   4,0   +0,4
H   Miðflokkurin   738   5,1   749   5,3   -0,2
Atkvøður   14623       14256      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka   16408   89,1%           30/44

At 50.7% Centre is down 0.4% with almost exclusively urban votes out.

Torshavn will most likely be the last.

What about Progress?

Torshavn will definitely be last.

Progress is at -0.1%, but that is before the towns with the young folks in them.

They do not show the results of 2011 for the towns that are not counted yet.

Nah, Klaksvik is pretty right wing, but I expect Progress to do well up there.

You can find the 2011 results here:

http://kvf.fo/val/l2011 (http://kvf.fo/val/l2011)

54.8% counted.

Samlað - 55 valstøð

54,8% upptalt (19961 av 36458)   Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 22:54
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A   Fólkaflokkurin   3554   20,1   4048   23,5   -3,4
B   Sambandsflokkurin   3856   21,8   4516   26,2   -4,4
C   Javnaðarflokkurin   4326   24,5   3277   19,0   +5,4
D   Nýtt Sjálvstýri   790   4,5   694   4,0   +0,4
E   Tjóðveldi   3299   18,7   2817   16,4   +2,3
F   Framsókn   847   4,8   815   4,7   +0,1
H   Miðflokkurin   1011   5,7   1054   6,1   -0,4
Atkvøður   17782       17221      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka   19961   89,1%           38/61

Only Torshavn, Klaksvik and one settlement out now.

The left 15.2% up in Argir. If the rest of Torshavn goes like that..

Klaksvik in.

Klaksvík

Løgtingsval 1. september 2015, kl. 22:57
Flokkur   Val 2015   %   Val 2011   %   Munur
A.    Fólkaflokkurin   1.036   32,5   1062   34,8   -2,3
B.    Sambandsflokkurin   492   15,5   595   19,5   -4,0
C.    Javnaðarflokkurin   700   22,0   417   13,7   +8,3
D.    Nýtt Sjálvstýri   273   8,6   223   7,3   +1,3
E.    Tjóðveldi   453   14,2   439   14,4   -0,2
F.    Framsókn   66   2,1   53   1,7   +0,4
H.    Miðflokkurin   163   5,1   265   8,7   -3,6
Atkvøður      3.227      3.054      Blankar/Ógild.
Valrætt/Valluttøka      3.606   89,5%         12/32

Disappointing for Progress. No break through. Left wing gain much smaller than in other towns. Only + 8.1%.

Now the Union Party is third

Wonder what they are doing in Oyrarbakki, they are after the towns. Only Torshavn left otherwise. Maybe some technical problem.

EDIT: Oyrarbakki in.

The left at 42% before Torshavn with 34.2% of the votes.

Centre down 0.9% before Torshavn. The homophobes are losing.

Do you know the results of Torshavn in 2011?

KJL only 5th in personal votes in UP. Bardur Nielsen 4th.

I gave you a link to 2011 in a post above.

Those liberals :I

It looks like Torshavn is strong for Republic, looking at the figures of 2008 and 2011.

Yeah.

I think its already too late, I will stay up for 15 mins and leave. They take too long: OK Torshavn is the largest city, but they are only 12.000 voters! :)

Centre fell from 8.7% to 5.1% in Klaksvik. Jenis av Rana has gone too far for townies.

Yes, I mean, one thing is not passing same-sex marriage

Another thing is all that crazy thing about Sea Sehpherd and banning the parade and all that....


But Progress is not doing as well as expected so far. Would they dare to enter into a left-wing coalition?

haha still less than a town in Denmark and they were counted quicker in the Parliament elections.

Jenis av Rana does not have the most personal votes in his party. Would they do better with the other guy?

Torshavn has a much younger and better educated population than the settlements and small towns, so they may still do decently all in all. Klaksvik is probably still too SoCon for them.

Progress doing badly lowers the odds for a "reform coalition".

Justinussen is more moderate - at least less homophobic, so maybe. Jenis av Rana also has a preacher style and has turned the party into more of a movement with "sect language" than a normal party. Perhaps going "square" would benefit them.

So far there is no doubt SD is on the lead and will get the 8 seats I think

The small parties are around 4 or so all together. Polls suggested they would have more, sprecially Progress. Probably Progress will end up with more percentage due to Torshavn, which means they will probably repeat result. CP 1 or 2. And Home Rule Party possibly 1 or 2.

If Republic does well in Torshavn UP could be the fourth.

CP could have done better trying to:

1) acheive some compromise: hence reforms against discrimination in fragmented laws, even if they oppose same-sex marriage

29 do not focus on a sole issue. As a Christian-based party, focusing on the problems of the economic situation and more economic equality or issues like that, would make them more likely to negotiate with the left.

with these results, would they go for Progress (if Progress wants to) or would they try their luckk with the Home Rule Party and CP (maybe with BJ as negotiator) ?

Not CP. Maybe Home Rule if Republic, SD and Home Rule gets a majority.

It is past 1AM here in DK (and past midnight in the Faroes), so I am going to bed.

Lets discuss the result tomorrow.

Result for Tórshavn is in:

Javnaðarflokkurin -- 27.0% (+10.1%)
Tjóðveldi -- 26.2% (+3.3%)
Sambandsflokkurin -- 14.2% (-8.9%)
Fólkaflokkurin -- 13.3% (-4.0%)
Framsókn -- 11.8% (+1.3%)
Miðflokkurin -- 5.4% (-0.2%)
Nýtt Sjálvstýri -- 2.0% (-1.6%)

Final national result:

Javnaðarflokkurin -- 25.1% (+7.3%)
Tjóðveldi -- 20.8% (+2.5%)
Fólkaflokkurin -- 18.9% (-3.6%)
Sambandsflokkurin -- 18.8% (-6.0%)
Framsókn -- 7.0% (+0.6%)
Miðflokkurin -- 5.5% (-0.7%)
Nýtt Sjálvstýri -- 4.0% (-0.2%)

Union finished 4th.

Left finished at 45.9%

Seat count:

Javnaðarflokkurin -- 8 (+2)
Tjóðveldi -- 7 (+1)
Fólkaflokkurin -- 8 (-2)
Sambandsflokkurin -- 8 (-2)
Framsókn -- 2 (nc)
Miðflokkurin -- 2 (nc)
Nýtt Sjálvstýri -- 2 (+1)

Seat count is wrong. PP and UP got 6, which is -2 for both.

Well, interesting result. Republic and SD have 15 and can get a majority with both Progress and Home Rule.

Seats:

Republic 7
SD 8
Home Rule 2
Centre 2
Progress 2
UP 6
PP 6

Some personal votes:

UP

1   Edmund Joensen   636
2   Kaj Leo Holm Johannesen   603
3   Bárður á Steig Nielsen   592
4   Magnus Rasmussen   500
5   Bjørn Kalsø   486
6   Magni Laksáfoss   374

KJL finished marginally ahead of his rival Bardur Nielsen. Former PM Edmund Joensen became #1.


Home Rule

1   Jógvan Skorheim 386
2   Kári P. Højgaard   351

Party chairman Skorheim and current MP (and "scandalized" Minister of the Interior Højgaard (who had said he was going to retire, but changed his mind) are elected. The are both positioned to the right in the party.

Centre

1   Jenis av Rana   498
2   Bill Justinussen   369

Jenis av Rana, who is the municipal doctor in Torshavn, got the necessary votes in the capital to overtake Justinussen, so he is safely in charge.


SD

Party chairman Aksel Johannessen got 2 405, which is a new Faroese record. Rigor Dam finished fourth.


PP

Still have the two Torshavn based MPs ahead of their leaders.


Progress

Party co-founder Hanna Jensen will join Poul Michelsen.

is that good or bad for Rigmor Dam?

Aksel V. Johannesen will be the new PM, since only a theoretical coalition between all 5 centre-right parties (including Progress and Centre!) can prevent SD and Republic from forming a government. So the question is only who the two left wing parties will govern with.

Same position as last time, but she is up 122.

Is SD-UP completely out?

I would say the Progress will not like to join the left. Just a guess.


Home Rule Party is the most likely, but I am not sure.

CP I guess is out (unless they preceive them as an easy going party, beyond their hardcore moral issues)

So apart from Alberta, the left has now also won Faroe :)

Only one of the two SDs that voted against gay marriage in 2014 (Henrik Old) is reelected, but I dont know if there are any SoCons among the newly elected MPs.

Question. I might be ignorant, but why are there so many people who want to leave the union with Denmark?

Well, 15 is good, but they were at 16-17 in some polls in spring, and the two parties have been at 15 before. It is not a sensation like Alberta. If they had gotten an outright majority that would have been a first.

They are a nation with their own culture, traditions and language etc. (and fiercely proud of both). Plus they are much smaller than DK and unable to influence Danish political decisions.

They are also outside of the EU and have a completely different type of economy.

Don't they have less to do with the EU than any other overseas territory of an EU member state?

Anyway, I guess the result is reasonably good news. How likely is gay marriage at this point?

Sounds all reasonable. I didn't even know that they had their own language, being even closer related to Icelandic/Old Norse than to Danish.

I looked at politiken.dk, my main source for Denmark-related news, and expected the election to be at least one of the main issues. Turned out it was quite hard to find anything about it. I would be pissed if I were Faroese :P Then again, if I think about it, I don't know much about politics on the Antilles either. Of course, these cases are very different, but still...


Yes, they are not part of the EU and neither are they part of the EU-recognized Overseas Countries and Territories (the Dutch Antilles are, for example). In fact, the Faroese Prime Minister visited Moscow to enhance bilateral trade relations when the EU announced a trade embargo with Russia. Faroese export to Russia increased dramatically. (I only just learned this).

That is only 14 seats and Republic would never govern with UP. It would not have a majority with one of the three small centre-right parties, so you would need two of them (and Centre/Progress is a no go). Progress would generally be uninterested in this centrist/unionist combo. So you would be stuck with a cumbersome SD-Centre-Home Rule-UP quartet ("centrists united") wit the risk of the of the small parties dropping out along the way ascot happened with the current government.

It also gives SD neither fishing quota reform, nor progressive taxation. So rather pointless for them.

Only good for improving healthcare. Could become more attractive if UP could be persuaded to reintroduce progressive taxation, but that would leave them open to attack from the right.

Generally, why should SD want this, when they can get some actual reforms and modernize Faroese society together with Republic and either Progress (big reforms) or Home Rule (small reforms).

That said KLJ has the initiative and he will almost certainly offer to join Aksel Johannesen in a "centrists united" as being in government would make it much easier for him to hang on to the leadership.

Fairly likely, but that depends entirely on which coalition that gets established and (especially) if there are other SoCons besides Henrik Old among the elected SD MPs.

They have common mackerel and herring quotas with EU and Norway, so you could surely find some islands somewhere that had less to do with the union.

Cooperation is based on a Fisheries Agreement from 1977 and a Free Trade Agreement from 1991. They are not in Schengen.

Fishing quotas is the major bone of contention and 2013-14 EU actually sanctioned the Faroes because they fished too many mackerells and herrings, so DK near the end of the conflict had to  boycott a part of our state (which is ridiculous). Like not allowing Faroese ships to buy provisions in Danish harbours etc.

Are Danish gay marriages recognized in Faroe?

Dunno. I found a 2 year old article about it on LGTB Denmarks web page where they said both Danish and Faroese authorities had stalled them and sent them running in circles in a "Kafkasque" process and declined to give an answer to even basic questions such as whether the marriages are legally recognized, whether a child adopted by a spouse in such a marriage only has one parent if the family moves to the Faroes, and if a person in a Danish gay marriage commits bigami if he/she enters into a straight marriage on the Faroes. So a mess back then.

The thing is no Danish gays moves to the Faroes (for obvious reasons), and hardly any Faroese gays return to the islands once they have moved to Denmark (= Copenhagen if you are gay). So it is a bit of a theoretical question and I doubt there has ever been an actual test case. So I am not sure whether it has been clarified.

I know Danish gay marriages (and registered partnerships before them) are recognized in Greenland, but then Greenlanders never had a problem with gay marriage in the first place.

Interesting situation (though also pretty sad for Faroese gays, let's hope this will be solved soon). The Netherlands had a comparable complicated situation with the Antilles, which initially declined to recognize Dutch gay marriages - until several court rulings obliged them to do so on the basis of the Charter of the Kingdom.

I meant in terms of their official relationship to the EU; as DavidB. said, they're not "Overseas Countries and Territories" like Anguilla, Aruba, New Caledonia, Greenland, etc.

But apparently, per Wikipedia, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, and Northern Cyprus are in the same boat as the Faroes.

No one knows if gay marriage is recognized in the Faroe Islands simply because no couple ever brought a case before the courts. And that is the Courts which correspond to do so.

The results leave only two combinations:

SD-Rep and either HR/Progress

SD-UP-CP-HR

with such easy combinations, how long would it take until the new government is done?

Well they end up 2nd, and overperforming the latest polling by 2-3 points, but still, I admit I was wrong. It's just I had seen them overperforming nicely in the Danish generals, and I reckoned it could end up the same, but SD overperformed even more !

Let's see how the government making process goes for my second prediction! ;)

Some reflections:

a 17 coalition could maybe be OK fo a start but weak in the long run: apparently, it is not uncommon that some MP moves from party to party during the term.

On gay marriage: my guess is that it will not be in force until next year. Last time, they introduced an opposition bill in November and was discussed in March.

I am not sure how the tempo works in the Faroese Assembly but if that is repeated, probably Politicus can say more abour this, but ame-sex marriage would not be in force until spring as earliest or thats my guess at least. Besides, they need to coordinate with the Danish authorities (as they did in Greenland). In Greenland it was approved in May and comes to force in October, but there was a lot of preparation and negotiations before for months.

Not necessarily. The Danish Realm is not a common law area where you need precedence from a court ruling to determine such things.

In principle the relevant authorities in the Faroes should just say how they are going to interpret the law when asked (and would have discussed such matters with the Danish Ministry of Justice after gay marriage was introduced in Denmark). That is what LGTB Denmark expected when they asked - and how it would be with other laws. Nobody knows because there is a political interest in keeping this question unanswered until there is a case.

(and still, there may by now be an answer, which is just not published online)

Republic only over performed Gallup by 1.4%, which was within the margin of error in the poll.

Regarding the Danish general elections - as I have pointed out many times in this thread - the dynamic is quite different with bread and butter issues at stake. In a Folketing election you got right wingers who would normally vote PP going Republic because they are the most principled nationalists and they like their tough talk, small party voters drifting to the big ones, young Libertarian business school students voting for the SD MP because he does standup and hosts a radio show and they think he is cool and such things. Voters float a lot more because the Faroese do not care about the Folketing, but still feel obliged to vote. It is low info voting based on feelings.

Løgting elections are high info voting after a lot of face to face contact with candidates and mostly based on socioeconomic interest. People vote their vallet. So the reasons the left did better in this are not the same as in a Folketing election. I think the anti-government (pro progressive taxes/anti free quotas to big fishing and lucky bastards) vote remained fairly strong all the time and Fynd simply had the wrong weighing in their polls. Gallup had all other parties than Progress and SD within the margin of error in their more "lefty" poll. And SD over performed with 2.2%, which was only slightly above the margin of error.

Gallup was actually decent (if to exactly great) except for "over polling" Progress and I think they were right about them at the time of polling. Progress collapsed in the last two days because of all the talk about bloc politics and how they would prop up a leftist government.

Very naive move for him that of KLJ called earlier elections.
Would not be surprised if he tried to do anything possible to be part of a coalition with SD, even if he has to compromise big topics.

By the way: The second in personal votes in the social democrats, Sonja Jógvansdóttir, is openly lesbian.

Regarding gay marriage it is worth noticing that the second spot on the SD list went to newcomer Sonja Jógvansdóttir with 1020 votes.

She is the first openly gay person to become an MP (her spouse is former Minister of Culture Annlis Bjarkhammar from Republic, but she was never an MP).

Apart from better living conditions for poor families her main campaign theme was gay marriage, so voters giving her such a strong mandate is a clear signal and given how much the Faroese care about personal votes I think it will have an influence. With her and Rigmor Dam in the SD group Aksel Johannesen will be under a strong pressure to choose a coalition that secures gay marriage or at least registered partnership.

yes she scored 3rd on personal votes.

when do you think the new government will be ready? few days?

My bet is SD-Rep-Home Rule.

Why? It was his only chance. The election was due within a few months anyway and if he had waited he would have lost control of his own party, which would have become fragmented and torn apart in internal infighting, and meanwhile Tunnelgate would have been kept alive and dominated the media. This way he kept the party together, quickly eliminated Tunnelgate as a campaign issue and ended up getting the second best personal result ahead of Bardur Nielsen. He also got to keep the initiative as PM. If internal pressure had forced him to resign as party leader the party would also have lost the PM post (PP would not have accepted another UP PM in this situation - too big a giveaway) and lost the initiative in the government forming process. There was simply nothing to be gained by waiting.

Well it is good for him because he is MP but I am not sure for the party.
And in any case his continuation as leader will depend on whether he manages to ally with SD. Have they ever been in coalition?

Well, I asked a Faroese friend about SoCons in SD. She says that apart from Henrik Old only Bjarni Hammer might be against gay marriage, but she is unsure. The other six are pro. So either 6-2 or 7-1.

Unfortunately both the Home Rule MPs are against. Apart from Højgaard (who abstained in the 2014 vote), Skorheim is also against (I got that wrong, but since he is the Mayor of conservative Klaksvik it makes sense. So even if the party is majority pro-gay rights it has elected two opponents. Both the present and former chairman being against has to do with the balance between the blue collar/settlement wing and the urban/academic wing. Højgaard is blue collar (sailor and then small town postmaster) and Skorheim, who was a compromise candidate as chairman, is then on the SoCon side on this issue.

There will be a recount because Progress is only about 30 votes away from getting a seat from Home Rule, and this could then be important.

My friend is an SD so she doesn't follow UP politics, but she would ask around about the UP MPs.

It looks like only Republic-SD-Progress will get a gay marriage majority in parliament. But maybe Home Rule can be persuaded to call a referendum on it ( there should be a solid 60%+ majority among voters, so that would be just as good). They are not as hardcore opponents as PP and Centre and would likely prefer not to vote against a majority in their own party on this.

I have no doubt that it will be approved, with this result.

What I have my doubts is when. Would they move fast and have it done within this year or will they wait until spring? I think that is pretty much the issue.

A referendum can be the best solution.

Becuase if a new conservative majority in the future decided to repeal same-sex marriage, it would be more problematic to vote against the will of the people.

As expected KLJ will try to form a government.

Aksel Johannesen says his preferred coalition includes all four opposition parties (Republic-SD-Home Rule-Progress), which would have 19 seats and be more solid than a 17 seat three party government.

Well technically they do not have a pro-gay majority on their own.

Republic 7
non-SoCon SD 6-7
Progress 2

That is either 15 or 16. If they want Home Rule on board and they demands it off the table to enter government or Henrik Old threatens to leave if they do it they may have to drop it.

Both things are unlikely. Home Rule is divided and Højgaard abstained in 2014, so he is hardly a hardcore SoCon + Skorheim may mostly be against for opportunistic reasons given his conservative voter base, but you can not rule it out. Henrik Old could switch to UP if they tried to push a vote on it (another SoCon SD went to UP a couple of years back, although for different reasons). It would not be that great a risk as he is a settlement politician relying on personal votes more than party label, approving gay marriage would be more risky for him.

It all depends on how strongly Højgaard, Skorheim, Old and possibly Hammer feel about this and we can only guess about that.

How long can they be trying to decide what government is formed?

is there a deadline to form the new government or to KLJ keep trying?

Above 17 is also SD-UP-CP-Home Rule. Thats the card KLJ will try to play.

There is no deadline as such. He starts out consulting with the parties, and if a majority declines to support him he has to give the opportunity to the leader of the largest party. If Republic, SD and progress simply says no he will have to

There is no tradition for stalling, if SD refuses to negotiate it is over, but they will likely talk with him. It is a political culture with focus on being polite and orderly, following procedure etc. (in the usual dull, rational and non-melodramatic Scandinavian style ;) ).

haha well, to me it sounds a bit of adversarial politics :)

And I do not think SD will refuse to negotiate, if he has doubts about the other coalition.

It seems KLJ has resigned as PM and tomorrow the leader of the SD will be appointed to start negotiaitons or thats what I have been told.

Yeah, that's right. "Løgmaður leggur kongin", "the Lawman lies down the Crown" as their public broadcaster Kringvarp chose to frame it. ;)

There will be a party leader round tomorrow where the Speaker will interview the party leaders about their preferences, but there is no doubt Aksel Johannessen will then get a mandate to try forming a government.

The main reason KLJ gave up so quickly is that there was a challenge to his leadership of UP from the other MPs right away. So he was simply not in a position to fight on.

AFAIK he has not resigned as UP chairman yet, but he is de facto dethroned.

And now? if a divided party, any chances SD looks at them?

It seems most likely SD-R-Progress. But will Progress go with the left?

That Pogress Party sounds to me like Liberal Alliance in the Danish context

I doubt UP is in shape to enter a government, they will have to sort out their party hierarchy first. I would be really surprised if they are part of the new coalition. It is S-R-HR or S-R-Progress or S-R-HR-Progress we are talking about.

Even disregarding that a UP-SD coalition would need to include Centre (since PP, Progress and Republic would be out) and SD/Centre is a no go with both an openly gay MP and Rigmor Dam + the two other female SDs are also very socially liberal. There is no need to consider Centrists United now. It was only relevant if more SoCon (or at least less SoLib) SDs had been elected.

I know you do not completely agree but I think KLJ played badly and led his party to a disaster. IF he was out, they would have another leader to do better. And I do not think this is good for him either, because he is out of everything.

Yes, they are very much alike. Soft Libertarians, who are willing to compromise and pursue their agenda step by step. There is just the added element of separatism and then the fact that they operate in a much more socially conservative country, which gives them different priorities.

Also, just Progress. No Party (flokkurin), that is old fashioned in the Faroes. The Republican Party is now Republic, The Home Rule Party is New Self-Government and then there is Progress.

PP can hardly become Peoples (or People), but maybe we will see the others rebranded as Equality (SDs Faroese name means the Equality Party), Union and Centre.

Can still be claimed that the FO is more socially conservative with Sonja J the third in votes?

It looks like FO went to bed in a convent and woke up in London Soho.

Nah, they are just slowly catching up to the rest of Scandinavia. There are several gay MPs in the other Scandinavian countries and we even have a gay chairman for our Conservatives. There are parts of Western Norway and rural Finland that are as SoCon as the Faroes, but not in Denmark.

At the moment we have two gay party leaders and one gay deputy leader, plus one bisexual deputy leader in our nine parties with representation in Parliament, so LGBT people are actually over represented at the top of Danish politics. It will take decades before a Conservative Faroese party gets a gay leader or even MP.

A question: once they decide to form a coalition, either with HR or Progress, are they also obliged to announce a joint manifesto with the main points of their agreement tod evelop in the 4 years time? Or they will simply announce they will govern together?

Just that they will govern together. They will almost certainly agree on an agenda for the government and announce the main points to the public, but they are not obliged to.

It's called taking a chance.

The alternatives were worse and it could have paid off, the fact it didn't doesn't mean it was the wrong move. It might have been selfishly motivated, but it was unlikely the party could have agreed on an another leader so if he had left it would have meant a nasty and divisive power struggle right before an election. Now they have the personal votes to go by, which is often how the Faroese decide leadership contests (in municipal elections they usually simply appoint whoever got the most votes Mayor regardless of who was on top of the list).

Their last election was unusually good, so they were bound to lose some votes and the present result is not a disaster by any means. They are still one of the Big 4 in Faroese politics and will be back.

Is that an Assembly that meets often? I heard (dont know if it is right) that in Greenland they do not meet that often (maybe because of the distances, I do not know).

Yeah, doing constituency work in Greenland sometimes takes a bit of time ;) and would be too costly if they had to go back to Nuuk all the time.

Dunno about the Løgting actually, but would expect them to meet up fairly regularly. They have a lot of responsibility (being close to running their own little nation state) + distances are short and flights rarely gets cancelled - even in the winter. It is not an extreme climate like Greenland.

Here in Spain there are periods where Parliament do not meet (summer, part of december and january). Otherwise they usually meet.

The legislative process takes long though (first things have to go to commission, then to plenary). I am not sure how these 33 folks work.

In a Spanish city like Madrid or Barcelona they have plenary sessions every month. But of course they are municipalities.

PD: do you think that AJ wants a broader coalition not only because 17 is too tight but also because they are not so confident of Progress Paety? Maybe it is me but I still see it a strange mix.

Probably, but it is also about mavericks in SD. Gerhard Lognberg deserted to UP in this period due to disagreement about a tunnel project (it is the Faroes after all ;) ), and there are both a the Mayor of Torshavn Heðin Mortensen (who was in UP 1988–2004) and Henrik Old, which may both be a risk when they have to make compromises with "strange bedfellows". If they are worried about Progress it is more likely they will just agree with them on a 2 year reform government - do their stuff on the areas they agree on, and then call a new election.

(actually there are two Mayors since Kristin Michelsen from Tvøroyrar kommuna also got elected - together with her deputy Bjarni Hammer, but that is the place on Suduroy where SD polled 57%+ and being on the SD list matters down there, so no worries about them defecting)

Home Rule defecting is actually a bigger risk than Progress since they are centrists and can easily swing to the other side, while Progress can not work with Centre.

All in all, after two MPs switched party in the last term having a buffer would be nice for Aksel Johannesen.

But also looking at things from Progress side, it may be true in the end that flirting with the left hitted them. They were overpolled (I think from all parties they were the most overpolled). They were constantly in 4 or 3-4 MP and they got 2 (there is a third awaiting a recount but still...)

In politics it is not just that you agree on some things and you just develop them for a period of time. Always new problems arise and new things to take into account, and in some matters the left/right economic divide may be relevant (we should not forget they come from the PP)

HR may me more unstable but they seem to be OK with almost everything to stay in.

Of course, if they ever needed any help in left-wing economic matters, they could still try to do geometrical vote in the assembly and try to get the support of CP in economic issues. But if the ruling coalition approves same-sex marriage or abortion CP will not tell them even "hello".

By the way, I read somewhere there were also big issues with the Sirian refugees, is that actually that problematic?

Also, besides the 2 guys who left SD, there was one guy who left Progress.

(indeed, it can be be I am generally skeptical of these Liberal Alliance free market folks)

Actually, I find amusing how easily they change parties during the term :) there was an agreement to avoid such things in Spain and they are actually very bad considered.

I doubt Progress was under polled. I think they collapsed in the final days due to media reports about the "bloc politics".

But I think you underestimate just how much Faroese society needs to be modernized in many ways and how much a tightly woven elite of owners of big trawlers and fishing companies control the economy, which is what the leftists and Progress agree on being against. Also, the two Progress MPs are the two founders of the party, and they have more freedom of moving the party than others would have had. It is basically their party.

Anyway, it is pointless to discuss which coalition might be formed, we will soon know. My point is just that the Faroes is a special place and things that do not make sense in the rest of Europe might make sense in this particular context.

About Syrian refugees: A Danish historian named Lars Hovbakke Sørensen has gotten a bit of media attention by saying it would determine the election that KLJ had said they should take 1% of Danish refugees back in his New Year speech, but my Faroese contact says it was hardly debated in the campaign.

The proposal was quickly shot down because they lack social workers, various medical facilities and people knowledgable about treatment of torture victims etc. and because many of their municipalities are tiny. They could of course set up refugee camps, but that is not how Danish refugee politics work. SD was critical about the proposal and Hovbakke Sørensen saw it as "exciting" that the centre-right wanted refugees, but the centre-left was against, but it was mostly a matter of facilities and practical stuff. Not SD xenophobia.

It is logical for a unionist to want to contribute to solving the unions refugee burden, while the separatists want control over immigration policy for ideological reasons. So the separatists - incl. Republic and PP - were also against KLJs plan.

There were only two defectors. 1 guy left SD for UP and 1 Progress for PP. 

Yes indeed, there were only two. But previously the Progress Party is also a split of PP and I am not sure if they actually splitted during the previous term 2008-2011. And anything can happen with HR.

What is the economic situation in FO now? There was a huge crisis in the 1990s.

Pretty decent, it is the long term structural problems with an aging population, migration to Denmark (especially young women)/students never returning, combined with necessary investments in the public sector infrastructure that is the problem. And if sea based fish farming, which is very lucrative, can continue at current rate without polluting too much. So more sustainability than cash problems here and now - and then the dream of financing independence for some.

Progress split from PP in March 2011 and the election was in October. It was just Poul Michelsen and Hanna Jensen, some people from PPs youth org HUAX and a few others that left, many of their members are new people not previously engaged in politics. The former chairman of Home Rule Sámal Petur í Grund also switched to Progress.

Thats why they want now a redistribution of wealth, which makes sense voting for the left (SD-Rep), I assume.

Maps of party strength:

http://kvf.fo/greinar/2015/09/02/si-foroyakortini-soleidis-atkvoddu-foroyingar#.VegZ_7TxlsM (http://kvf.fo/greinar/2015/09/02/si-foroyakortini-soleidis-atkvoddu-foroyingar#.VegZ_7TxlsM)

Red = highest
Blue = lowest

The Speaker Jógvan á Lakjuni (PP) has had talks with all party leader and the opposition will try to form a government.

The main problem is that Republic/Progress/Home Rule want a roadmap towards independence and SD still being unionists at heart are unwilling to go along with that even if they want a separate Faroese Constitution and more autonomy. It will be hard to land a compromise between Republic/Progress and SD on this, but it will likely be done.

The mutual understanding about where a compromise should be about the economy, taxes, quotas etc. is high after all their previous contacts in the last couple of years, so it is the constitutional future that is the hard part. Despite PP being in the previous government the balance in this one would be a lot more separatist because Republic and Progress are more principled separatists and less willing too compromise on this issue.

haha that map is the rainbow flag ! :D

Well Republic suggested a referendum for 2016.

Is not Home RUle more moderate on the separatist issue?

Home Rule are gradualists wanting to take home area after area until there is almost nothing left of the union and then cut the last ties. SD are willing to go down that path for a while, but they disagree that the end goal should a priori be defined as a fully independent state. They want to keep their options open and are skeptical about whether all the costs of establishing a micro state are really worth it. Their traditional fear is that it will be impossible to secure an adequate welfare state in such a small country dependent on something as inherently unstable as fishing resources.

SD have always viewed PP as rich egoists and Republic as naive dreamers on this.

Yeah, and since most Faroese journalists are SocLibs that is probably not a coincidence. ;)

Well they can always try an union with Iceland :D

Historically Iceland has been the big brother and ideal for Faroese nationalists and many of the prominent families on the separatist side married into Icelandic families.

The Faroese understand Icelandic quite well, but Icelanders are unable to understand Faroese, so there is not even a community of language on the mainland Scandinavian level. Faroese is further from the original Old Norse than Icelandic and apparently it is easier to "go back" to the common ground than understand the neologisms and Danish loan words in Faroese despite the many strange invented Icelandic words for modern things (they mostly consist of elements a Faroese can guess the meaning of).

A union would need to use English or Danish (Icelanders still learn it, but are quite bad at it) as common language and both would be totally unacceptable to the nationalists. Language is at the heart of Faroese (and Icelandic) nationalism. The difference in size is also still too big and the Faroes would be swamped by the self confident and dominant Icelanders.
(there is a saying in Iceland that if Icelands population had been just a quarter of the Norwegian Norway would have become an Icelandic colony, and I tend to believe them)

They have the same type of natural resource based economy, so a common currency might work, but  Icelandic economy is not quite stable enough for this to be attractive.

The Faroese had their krone pegged to the British pound 1940-49, but that was WW2 and aftermath and with Britain their only trade partner of importance, not so today. Still, it would be more acceptable than the Euro. Only UP are pro-EU. Separatists hate it (like Icelandic nationalists). It was then been pegged to the Danish krone at 1:1 and today it is just a version of the Danish krone and issued by our national bank. Faroese notes are legal tender in Denmark (even if shops often refuse to take them), but officially you have to change the other way (but most shops take Danish notes).

But ironically they might inherited the Danish krone if we ever join the Euro ;) Greenlandic politicians generally agree Greenland would have negotiate with the EU about using the Euro in this case leaving the Danish krone as a Faroese currency by default.

what about oil, is there any oil around?

They are searching (and dreaming..), but so far, no.

In the Canary Islands they thought they found oil.

People were mostly against. And the regional government, which was against prospections, wanted to call a referendum (even if they are not legally allow to call a referendum). The central government was in favour of prospections.

Apparently there is no oil in the end.

But maybe they do not risk so much touristic resources in the Faroes, even if their nature looks stunning....they lack the good weather.

KLJ resigns as chairman of the Union Party.

All party leaders except Jørgen Niclasen from PP pointed to Aksel Johannessen as the leader of the government formation talks ("negotiation leader"). Niclasen wanted Høgni Hoydal from Republic in charge, no doubt hoping to tempt Republic into forming an "independence coalition" with PP, Progress and HR.

Johannessen now has 10 working days to form a government - starting today. He had talks with Republic and Progress today, and will meet with the Home Rule leaders tomorrow.

Thats good fun. I guess they will agree on something.

KLJ....that was expected. He was in a very bad position now (as if he was not before).



I am elarning a lot on Faroese politics these days, this i being a good chat :)

(og man kan også sige på dansk, det er en hyggeligt samtale) :)

who is the leader now of the UP?

No one, their executive committee will meet during the week and decide who it is going to be - or send it to a party congress, but they prefer to avoid that in the Faroes. No one has announced their candidature yet, but Bardur Nielsen will want the job. Perhaps their former chairman Edmund Joensen (70) (an ex-PM, Speaker and Folketing MP), who topped the poll, will have to take another turn to prevent infighting. Nielsen would almost certainly not run against him.

There was one article on Kringvarp saying KLJ had second thoughts because so many people had urged him to stay on, but I doubt he will change his mind. Once you have announced your resignation there is no going back - his authority would never be the same.

It was the party associations on two of the smaller islands, Vágar and Sandoy, that demanded his resignation, so if he has support on the two central islands he can fight on. But it would be foolish to try to.

EDIT: Their executive committee is meeting on Monday. KLJ has resigned, but is apparently also a candidate as "new" chairman. Messy.

Thx, I have enjoyed it too. Is that Google Translate or do you know some Danish?

SD-Republic and Progress have continued with the government formation talks alone in what the Faroese media call "serious negotiations" - so no Home Rule.

Yes I know some Danish - I am meant to have intermediate level of Danish.

I have lived in Copenhagen, fantastic city (And I will be back pretty soon, hopefully to stay for a while)


Does it mean they will have a coalition pretty soon?

And yes I am "meant to have" intermediate level on paper, but many typos ... :) havent used it for a while.

Probably

Unfortunately, I cannot read Faroese. Thats my main problem to follow the developments there.

Yeah, there is no Google Translate to give you a rough idea like Icelandic

Faroese is fairly close to New Norwegian (nynorsk), which I can read, so I normally understand the general idea of what is being said, but not always the details.

You are in any case very well informed of developments all around the globe as I can see in other threads like the Portuguese or Greek elections. That is really impressive.

Faroese seems hard, but Danish is also hard. I will need to retake it once I am back, and learn it better (and talk to people there because often people change to English when they see your Danish is bad: I know it is to make our lives easier, but the consequence is an added obstacle to learn Danish).

I think we should see it in Faroese context, there only live 50 000 people on the island, little more than a middle sized Danish municipality, which mean that Faroe have a very small elite, who all know each other, and most people know a member of Løgtinget and the talent mass are rather small. Politic in such a context will be much more personal in such a context, as such party loyalty will be much smaller, than in bigger countries, where it's much harder to work yourself up from bottom to top, and where anybody the parties suspect of being illoyal don't make it to the top. While on Faroe you can't afford throwing political talent away.

It's a common complain, which I fully understand; a week ago a friend of mine brought a foreign exchange student with him to a get together, as the polite people we are, we moved our conversation into English, so she could follow it.

Of course a solution could be, to simply ask people if they would keep the conversation in Danish, as you were training your Danish. I know we had a foreign supervisor at some volunteer work I did, where there was several people with limited English skill, who told, that she understood Danish, the result was that we spoke Danish to her, and she spoke English to us. So if you don't want to ask, you could simply single someone out with limited English skill and take the conversation with that person in Danish, the rest will likely shift to Danish to be polite.

Yes, indeed.

The main problem, at least for me, is not so much to understand but to get understood.

Any latest news on the Faroese side or should we wait until Monday?

They are still negotiating and may as well announce during the weekend (they may be more religious than most up there, but they are not keeping the Lord's Day holy during government negotiations - at least not if Centre isn't involved).

Will it have to be a official coalition, or can there simply be a minority government? That should surely give the SD-Republic people some leeway to achieve their goals...

They have positive parliamentarism, so they need a majority behind it. Technically that would not require all parties voting for the government to join it, but there are zero tradition for minority governments in the Faroes. It is simply not part of their political culture (same goes for Iceland and Greenland btw).

That assuming that Sd-republic share more goals than rep-progress, which may well be, with the exception of independence

Björk - Declare Independence. Thought it should be somewhere in this thread ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLCFRo1GlEI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLCFRo1GlEI)

HEHE nice one.

There was also an MP of SD which was in Rep before right?

Yes, the SD Folketing MP Sjúrður Skaale was in Republic until 2011. He left for ideological reasons since he was less of a radical "here and now" separatist than the party and disagreed with their constitutional proposal.

Skaale has an MA in polsci, but is a former radiohost and comedian, actor and singer (still performs once in a while) so he has his own fanbase and could move without risk.

I heard a radio program with five Faroese youth politicians (no Republic or Home Rule) and there was some interesting bits:

Regarding gay marriage:

The Progress rep said they are the only party where you can not run unless you pledge to support civil gay marriage and that all the big parties have some SoCons, so apparently Republic have some at the local level in the settlements.

The UP youth org is pro-gay marriage, but their guy said the high personal vote number for for PM Edmund Joensen (a SoCon from a settlement) in the Folketing election earlier this year had made it even more difficult to move the party away from official "vote you conscience" line towards being pro. He otherwise considered the party "a Social Liberal centrist party with some Conservatives".

SD youth org (called Socialist Youth btw) is pro (of course) and she said there are "very few" SoCons in the party.

The PP guy emphasized that the party is officially against it because it is a Danish law (which the Faroes are currently exempt from) and they refuse to discuss it before marriage legislation is "taken home" - this makes it possible for PP to frame their opposition as a separatism matter rather than an ethical one and demand party discipline on votes.


Regarding socioeconomic stuff:

On economics the PP rep said the were not a parallel to LA in Denmark, but more socially responsible. Apparently they think the sale of fishing quotas can finance welfare without having high taxes.

The SD girl restated the old claim that SD is the most left wing party and said that they are an unreformed, classical SD unaffected by Third Way-ism and neoliberalism. I personally think that with all the UP/SD switches that happens the two parties must be fairly close, but there is no denying Faroese SD is much more focused on redistribution of wealth than continental SDs.
Since Republic is always willing to sell out leftist goals for nationalist that may very well de facto put SD to the left of Republic on the socioeconomic scale.

At least it is funny that both SD and Republic always claim to be the most left wing party - it creates a special dynamic between them.


EU, Russia and the union:

On Russia and sanctions they all declined that the Faroes act immorally by keeping up their export and said that the EU sanctions were themselves unethical since they punished ordinary Russians. The PP rep went as far saying that Faroese sanctions would mean assist in "starving the Russians".

They also stated that the Faroes had themselves tried to be boycotted by the EU and that economic sanctions was an old fashioned and immoral way to conduct foreign policy, which should be a thing of the past. The only exception was the Progress guy who thought the Faroes should "take international responsibility". Progress seems generally to be internationalist and are also very pro taking refugees.

They all admitted it was also about economic self interest, but said the EU boycott had forced the Faroese to seek alternative markets and it was not possible to withdraw from Russian market with not guarantee it could be replaced + that Faroese sanctions would be of no importance to Russia, but ruin the Faroese economy.

They all confirmed that the Danish sanctions against the Faroes had caused a change in opinion about separatism and except the UP guy they all expected the union to be dissolved at some point, but the SD girl took the usual caveat that her party was founded to stop the eternal quarreling about independence and focus on the "needs of the people", and this issue had to be kept in the background and the Centre said it was "rather irrelevant". So they were pretty classic on  their views on this.

 I also think that the absurd situation where DK had to boycott a part of our own state meant the end for the union with the Faroes.

The Progress rep said they are  committed to national freedom as one of their three main goals (the others being personal freedom and economic freedom), but that they are willing to take it slower than Republic and that the economic foundation for it is important.

One way of describing the Faroese SD would be to compare it to Danish SD in the 50s or 60s. Fairly moderate and pragmatic, but with a clear sigt of the end goal being a more fair and equal society, firmly anchored in trade unions and with a rhetoric still a bit influenced by Socialism (but not Marxism) + an easy relationship with the nation and national culture given that they operate in a de facto mono-ethnic society.

All this makes them a bit exotic in todays Europe.

Home Rule is back in the negotiations.

They should go and rest in the weekend...I do not know...take some sunbath :)

I am used to the Spanish periods where, from the election until the new government is in office, there is at least a period of two months.

In September in the Faroes?

Yeah why not? :)

Everything is possible.

In that period of two months there is what it is called "government in functions".

From what it seems that Faroe Islands, at the moment, does not have a government. Is this correct?

Yes.

If the situation drags on for an extended periode the Speaker can ask the previous government to step back as a caretaker administration. But that is very unlikely.

Yes but they have a margin of 1-2 weeks usually.

What if some relevant decision for some sudden event happens in between? They call the former govrnment back.

But maybe KLJ is in the Canary Islands having the sunbath :)

He is still in the Faroes and will stay there to they have a new government. Besides it very unlikely that something that can not wait a week will happen in the Faroes.

Did you read my long post about the youth pols above? I thought you would have had some comments or questions.

I think that the Youth of a party is different from the Party itself in many occasions.

On whether SD and Rep are the most leftist, I have seen SFers supporting Republic, so probably they associate SD with the Danish Socialdemocrats.

As for independence, it does not look like PP Rep and Progress have the majority. I am not sure what HR exactly stands for, but you probably have more info.

As for the gay marriage, I am not sure what is the point of Progress stating that they are the only "true" and 100% pro-gay marriage. I do not think Rep will have a problem and maybe some SoCon SD MP but thats pretty much it. UP will have ethical vote so that it would pass. To me the question about that is how (refrendum or not) and when. Dont you think?

Btw, Does CP have a Youth branch?

Youth parties are of course different, but they also talked about what their mother parties thought and how they vary and what direction they are moving in, which was the interesting part.

Danish parties cooperate with Faroese and Greenlandic parties based on tradition, not current ideology, so that is a useless guideline in determining what positions the parties actually have (like IA in Greenland being quite free market despite being a nominally Socialist party). Faroese SDs of course work with Danish SDs. Republic ally with no Danish party when elected. Danish left wingers consider IA and Republic the proper "anti colonial" partners, but both parties put nationalism (and therefore a healthy economy/fiscal responsibility) above leftist goals, which often makes them wiling to cut budgets quite hard and their countries respective SDs more left wing in practice.

The Progress guy was describing the (complex) situation in the parties when asked - not saying how SD and Republic will vote - that is your focus.

Not sure how you are so 100% certain gay marriage will pass when there isn't a majority based on the likely government parties. The SoLib UP votes are only relevant if there is a vote at all. Nobody in the opposition will raise the issue, so if the government parties are blocked from raising it there will be no vote. I think - and hope - they will do it this time, but it is not a done deal. Odds are maybe 75-80% or something

I have already covered HR and independence - cut ties bit by bit until there is nothing left - then formalize it by declaring independence.

I guess you are just more interested in "here and now" - the long term trends and developments are more interesting for me as a Dane.

Yes indeed. I think you are right: our approaches are different, but also our political cultures. Remmember I am from crazy Spain! :)

For example, now in Spain there is a huge debate on the approval of the budget for next year. The current conservative majority has approved 4 budgets, and there are elections at the end of the year. Their intention is to match the time to get the next one approved before, and therefore they are calculating which day they should call it. It is more complicated, because the opposition claims it is unconstitutional that a government intends to pass 5 budgets in a 4 years term. But yes, the here and now emerges quite often.

Consensus is common in Scandinavia and that makes things take time. Probably also the Faroes.

On HR - yes indeed what you say is their big theory of how to approach independence. But, yes, I was asking for the now in the current negotiations with the other three parties.

On gay marriage, even if there is one or two SoCons, any of the other parties can say that gay marriage is a condiction sine qua non (similar to CP but on the other way round).

HR is going for a government that takes the maximum under the current 2005 autonomy agreement + a Faroese Constitution.

SD agrees theres should be a Constitution and wants to take some things like control with the air space and foreign policy, but not fx the police and the courts.

The only likely candidate for making it a sine qua non is Progress. Republic is usually pragmatic with all non-independence related goals. Republic, SD, HR could work without gay marriage, even if some MPs would be massively disappointed, but they would have to wait - I do not see a party split over gay marriage from SoLibs. They know it is tricky.
There is no doubt lots of pressure on Aksel J. for securing gay marriage, but if a deal with Progress slips away, people know he has to use the two HR - and that there is a risk they would block it (even if they may not - or just demand a referendum). 

A referendum has an advantage:

it would be complicated for a conservative majority in the future to repeal it.

I know that it is unlikely that happened (I only know the case of California that comes up to my mind). But still.

Btw, the point raised by the PP Youth is interesting.

Yes, but it is the whole party that use it as an argument.

PP often uses separatism to disguise other motives. Like when they claim the Faroes should not take refugees because foreign policy is under union control.

They are not following their icelandic fellows in that matter

Yes, Ung fyri Miðflokkin - Youth for CP. There was a rep for them in the debate, but he was low profile and didn't say anything other than you would have expected him to.

Woult if be possible to say that CP is a loyal party in a coalition? I mean, they did not vote against KLJ , as PP did. And it seems that, beyond their hardcore ethical things, they are flexible on other issues. Am I wrong?

No, they are a solid coalition partner and easy to please if you give them what they want on the SoCon areas (incl. religious education in public schools, which is church controlled, and such).

They broke out of a much more right wing (and now defunct) Christian Peoples Party exactly to become the perfect coalition partner for both sides of each of the two cleavages (left/right and separatist/unionist). Which is why Jenis av Rana going of the deep end is a bit weird, but they are of course threatened on core beliefs with the gay marriage thing.

Yes but religious education in schools is also an ethical thing.

It seems their agenda is weak or non existent in economic or separatis/unionist areas.

I am far away from the views of that party, but to me it appears coherent (although they could avoid things like baning the parade or the like, being against same-sex marriage, for them, makes sense)

but maybe I am too influenced by my context. Spain is one of the countries with the most advanced family and civil law in europe. Gay marriage is old news, it was passed a decade ago.
The focus now is on economy, social inequality (not legal/civil inequality any longer, although both are related, for example, the access of women to workforce), poverty, etc.

The Faroese scenario is different.

Their views are very coherent, but av Ranas rhetoric the time has been shrill and dystopic this time, which makes them look extreme and isolates them, and focused exclusively on gay marriage.

They are naturally very pro-local communities and support fishing quotas reserved to small settlements, government subsidies to ferry routes and local transport etc. Anything that benefit their core electorate. So they are also a periphery-interest party.

They moved away from being mildly separatist to being completely neutral and this seems deliberate. but this time they still proposed a broad "separatist coalition" (incl. them, but not Progress) at the first consultation with the Speaker. But I guess that was desperation.

I think their leader was not the right one for this time.

If they used a different rethoric, they could have done something better.

But on these other issues that you mention, their socioeconomic approach seems closer to SD-Rep.



As I said I cannot read Froese so it is difficult for me to follow but my general impression is that their strategy was bad. They would need an Argentinean Pope! :)

Btw, we talked about the position of CP against same-sex marriage.

But what about the position of the Faroese Church? Do they share CPs views?

Well, that depends what church we are talking about. Fólkakirkjan (The Peoplen's Church), which became independent of the Danish Lutheran church in 2007, is the established Lutheran church and mostly tolerant - and also not exclusively SoCon. It's Bishop is actually in favor of legalized abortion. It is against church gay marriage and the use of the term marriage for gay relationships, but has no opinion of registered partnerships. 83.8% of the Faroese are members, but of those 7.4% are also members of the Pietistic Inner Mission. Outside of Folkakirkjan 11.4% are in the Plymouth Brethren and 1.5% Pentecostalists. Then there are about 1-2% in several more radical evangelical sects. So you got around 22% who are fundis in some form or another.

CP is based on Inner Mission, Plymouth Brethren, Pentecostalists and various charismatic sects, not the mainstream Lutherans.

So you got a relatively large group of voters, who are fundamentalists and their votes are spread over most parties. Fx. Southern Suduroy is a fundi stronghold, but also an SD stronghold.

Jenis av Rana is also the Scandinavian leader of World Christian Doctors Network (WCDN), which attempts to medically analyze supposed healing cases performed by God. So he is into the whole divine healing thing.  WCDN is founded by controversial, to say the least, South Korean cult leader and healer Jaerock Lee (72), who is the president of The United Holiness Church of Korea and the World Christianity Revival Mission Association.

Besides being the municipal physician of Torshavn Jenis av Rana is also a lay preacher and his political speeches and sermons are basically one and the same.

Do you have any link on the established Faroese Folkekirke Bishop opinion on gay wedding?

And are there any Catholics up there?

Not really, but asked in this interview what would happen "if the Faroese Bishop accepted gay marriage?" he says  "then there probably wouldn't be that much Folkakjyrka left".

He also admits that the main reason there was such a huge support for separation from the Danish church was that the Danish church was seen as too liberal.

It is pretty informative. One of the problems is that young people from mainstream families no longer study theology, so only the very conservatives become Ministers. There is also a tendency that they seek very conservative/non-mainstream seminars in Denmark giving young right wingers the paradoxical nickname "the Danish priests".

He has ordered consevative Ministers to work with their female colleagues, but otherwise tried to avoid confrontation with them. Even if the deadly says he will modernize the church.

http://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/kirke-tro/biskop-vil-modernisere-den-færøske-folkekirke (http://www.kristeligt-dagblad.dk/kirke-tro/biskop-vil-modernisere-den-færøske-folkekirke)

Thanks for the link!!

Probably besides that the Danish curch was more liberal, there is a nationalistic thing in taking over the Church.

The Church has historically been very important in the Faroes, it can be seen as a "national" matter.

Have been continuously since the 1930s. Around 130 and 6 Franciscan nuns. They have a church in Torshavn:

()

In the end of the interview to tbe bishop, these lines are interesting. He said that in 2010.

– Status er i dag, at Færøerne ganske langsomt, men sikkert går mod at blive et moderne internationalt samfund. Og det betyder også, at sekulariseringen allerede er godt på vej. Vores levevis, også biskoppens, viser, at vi er børn af vores tid.

Sure, and "only" 38% goes to church regularly by the last count. That is way above the Scandinavian mainland but not like the Faroes of yore.

That goes without saying, but the point was that the Danish church being too liberal was actually even more important in securing a fast break with very high numbers in support (even before they were really ready).

Yes I read an article in a book where the Danes were kind of viewed as continental "sinners" in some Faroese circles.

How are the developments going?

No news, maybe they do keep the Sabbath after all ;)

Yeah, relaxing with the family, friends, on in the beach having a sunbath! :)

They negotiated through last night. They will resume on Monday with the relationship to Denmark/union issue and the fishing quotas. Aksel Johannessen said he expected them to have a result after a couple of days in next week. But we will now more after Monday when they have started on the hard stuff.

So, Pogress or Home Rule, or both. No one knows.

Both are still in.

So basially on Wednesday we will know everything.

Yeah most likely, but we will already know more after tomorrow. If it is going smoothly when they have talked a day about the two hardest issues things will be okay. Home Rule are most likely to drop out over fishing quotas and the whole coalition to collapse over unionism, so if things are going okay with those two it will be a quartet.

Once they announce they will have a coalition, they already have to disclose the names and position of each minister?

No sure if they have to, but they will do it.

do they proceed the same way in Denmark when they form a coalition?

Not quite, the Speaker does not play the same role. Technically the Monarch is involved and we have dronningerunder "Queen rounds" where the party leaders says to the Queen, who they want to be the "Royal enquirer". In reality it is the outgoing PM, who advises the monarch on this since she is supposed to be apolitical. The Faroese could use a substitute for the monarch for this (a high ranking civil servant), but they use the Speaker for this role and so do the Greenlanders. And Danish governments always stays on as caretaker administrations until a new one is formed.

Any news around?

Btw, you mentioned that the leader of the Centre Party was a doctor in the Faroe Islands. I was wondering, do they keep their actual jobs while being MP or do they work exclusively as MP?

AKsel J. says they will finish during this week. One aspect that makes it harder is that a budget proposal will have to be presented at October 1 as the latest. SD prefers just to prolong the current one since there is so little time, but it seems the others might want some changes.

It varies whether they keep their jobs.

but beyond that, 4 mates coalition, apparently?

and what about the other issues: fishing cuotas, gay marriage....nothing said?

Apparently, but he has an interest in saying things are going well, so who knows.


No.

At some point during this week we will know a bit more I guess.

---

Yeah, right now Faroese media are totally dominated by the Danish boat refugee situation, and I only found an article talking about that they might get a gender equal government for the first time because there are so many well qualified women in SD (Rigmor Dam, Eyðgunn Samuelsen) and Republic (Sirið Stenberg, Kristina Háfoss, Katrin Kallsberg, Annita á Fríðriksmørk) + Hanna Jensen from Progress.

Another matter is the distribution because they do not have many portfolios. KLJ started out with a 3-3-1-1 distribution and then simply closed the Ministry of the Interior (which incl. traffic, police (mostly union matter), municipalities and environment) and spread it out.

The current portfolios are:

PM
Deputy PM (always combined with something else)
Finance
Health
Culture (incl. education)   
Fishing
Business (incl. farming)
Social service (often merged into health)

Since it is a left wing dominated government they may reintroduce a separate Ministry of the Environment and I expect the Ministry of the Interior to reemerge, it was a bit weird closing it - Højgaard could get it back, or Skorheim (but he is also Mayor, so I expect Højgaard - if they keep the second seat). They might also reintroduce a Foreign Affairs ministry with all the separatists in this coalition. Republic leader Høgni Hoydal has had it before and I could see him wanting it back together with Deputy PM. I am fairly certain Katrin Kallsberg from Republic will get health. She is a gynecologist and chairman of the Board of Gender Equality and  almost too capable to waste. I expect Poul Michelsen from Progress to get either Business or Fishing, probably business. Unless he chooses to stay out and Hanna Jensen gets Culture (she is a high school teacher), but that is unlikely.


My guess:

SD:
PM Aksel V. Johannesen
Fishing one of the 3 Suduroy MPs (Hammer, Michelsen, Old - probably Michelsen)
Culture Rigmor Dam

Republic:
Deputy PM/Foreign Affairs Høgni Holdall
Finance Kristina Háfoss (economist)
Health and Social Services Katrin Kallsberg (or Stenberg, she has seniority and got more votes)

Progress:
Business Poul Michelsen

Home Rule:
Interior Kari Højgaard


Finance would likely go to Eyðgunn Samuelsen if SD gets it (but I think Republics position is too strong for that). She has been on the Finance Committee for years. Annita á Fríðriksmørk is a former Minister of Culture and would likely get that post again if Republic gets it.

I doubt there will be gender equality because the two small parties will appoint men and both Johannessen and Hoydal will be in + fishing is a male "prerogative". It was more likely in a three party coalition. But 5-3 sounds likely. Maybe 5-4 if they reintroduce Environment (could be combined with Energy/Oil).

Well, if Poul Michelsen demands fishing to sort out the quota system Eyðgunn Samuelsen could get Business and it would be 4-4.

On second thought I think Sirið Stenberg will get health. She is #2 on their list and that really matters up there (if you have experience). Samuelsen was #3 on the SD list and I think will try hard to find a spot for her.

Sonja J. is too unexperienced in politics to get into the government.


Revised guess:

SD:
PM Aksel V. Johannesen
Business Eyðgunn Samuelsen
Culture Rigmor Dam

Republic:
Deputy PM/Foreign Affairs Høgni Hoydal
Finance Kristina Háfoss
Health and Social Services Sirið Stenberg

Progress:
Fishing Poul Michelsen

Home Rule:
Interior Kari Højgaard

But they are still negotiating?

It is just a negotiation on names now?

No, far from it. But it is overshadowed in the Faroese media by the refugee crisis right now, so there are no news. Many Faroese have relatives in Denmark and the boat people (flóttafólkum) situation is a big deal up there.

About the Syrian refugees? what is the relation with the Faroes? I am lost.

None directly, but Denmark suddenly being "invaded" like that is a big deal to them. We are not used to scenes like that in Scandinavia, it is not like in the Mediterranean where desperate refugees have been common for years and getting "normalized" in peoples mind.

I understand. It is indeed a complicated situation all over Europe, and of humanitarian need.

What is the Danish position about that? I mean the government.

They are trying to lay low and hope the refugees go to Sweden by themselves (which is where most of them want to go anyway). The DPP is trying to pressure them to "get tough" and reintroduce border control, which might ironically mean more refugees will get registered in Denmark.

But I would rather not talk about that in this thread. Lets wait and see if taking war refugees is part of the new Faroese government agreement - it might well be, there is lobbying from academics, media people, Red Cross etc.

(to other posters: no Danish refugee policy talk/comment here, pls)

But how far can the Faroese go in this matter, separate from the Danish government? I mean, can the Faroese authorities do something different? I assume such foreign policy matter is in the hands of Denmark.

Foreign policy is a "realm matter" (but one of the things SD wants Faroese control of), so they can't have their own refugee policy.

They can offer to take a share of either the Danish UN refugee quota or boat people coming to Denmark, and DK would of course gladly accept such an offer.

Is there anything comparable to DF in Faroese politics?

No! They have 0.04% Muslims ;)

But they have other foreigners, I assume. :)

Not even the CP can be considered something similar to DF.

CP are SoCons, which DPP only plays lip service to once in while (they were against gay marriage, though). Their core electorate is totally different from DPPs. PP is much more likely to refuse refugees than CP (because of Christian ethics).

The Faroes do not really have minorities of any size. 97% are ethnically Faroese and almost half of the rest are Danes.

Wiki has the following numbers for people aged 15+ in 2011 and says there were 77 nationalities. "Big" groups in brackets.

Danes 515
Other European countries 433 (Norwegians, Icelanders, Poles)
Asians 147 (Filipinos)
Africans 65 (various refugees)
America 55 (US, Canada)
Russia 23

But basically Islamophobia is the bread and butter of contemporary right wing populism in Western Europe. No Muslims, no right wing populism. Neighbouring Iceland has 8% foreigners, but hardly any Muslims among them,  and their right wing populists poll at 2% combined.

An exception is Spain, we have muslims but not right wing populism against them (apart from random picturesque cases like two or three local mayors, but nothing in parliament)

In the end, KLJ was ok with refugees

The "no Muslims, no right wing populism" rule doesn't necessarily work in reverse.


Yeah KLJ was always okay with refugees and wanted to do more, but he is a Liberal. Not a right winger.

(not sure why you brought him up?)

Because i think u mentioned his approsch to host refugees was quite criticized

Yeah, mostly for practical reasons, but no doubt (parts of) PP used those as a smoke screen. But I think the Faroese SDs were genuine in their capacity/facility/knowledge based critique.

Lets see what happens. It is indeed nice that they want to host people. Of course there may be some problems of facilities in the Faroe Islands, but they are leaving a terrible war. Any lack of facilities will be minor compared to what they experienced in their country.

We have our first defector!

Annika Olsen from PP, who got the second most votes, has decided to leave the party. She is from Torshavn and basically says there are too many SoCons/Hard Right in the new group. That "despite her good personal election the leaderships policy won the election and Liberal values lost out." Also claims she still believes in the party platform (which says PP is a Liberal, democratic and social party..).

So Annika O. got tired of the right wing hicks... Wonder if she will join Progress? She might even be pro-gay marriage, she is definitely the most likely to be among the PP MPs.

She tried unsuccessfully to get a leadership election and take over in 2011, when she got 3 times as many votes as the party leader Jørgen Niclasen and became #1, but has apparently definitively given up.

PP had 9 seats a month ago, now they have 5. Ouch.

Olsen was Deputy PM and Minister of Social Services in KLJs government and she lost around a third of her vote from 2011 this time. She was also Minister of Internal Affairs 2008-11 and had some big fights with Republic back then.

In all fairness she is not merely crossed about SoCon influence and pro-established businesses bias, but also wants a municipal reform reducing the municipalities from 30 to 8 and a police reform going from 6 to 3 districts. All this would make it a lot easier to finance independence - and from her POV the settlement people resisting this undermines the partys separatist agenda.

Also in favor of a 4% threshold (something Home Rule obviously hates).

That is what we call in Spain transfuguismo. Very bad considered.

No wonder the Sd wants a broader coalition, just in case.

Negotiations are now just between Republic, SD and Progress. Party leaders meet today with their groups to consult and inform and will afterwards have what is considered final talks. Faroese media expects the government to be announced tomorrow.

No news on why Home Rule is out. It drowned in all the refugee stories. Likely fishing quotas, though.

Poul Michelsen says Annika Olsen is welcome in Progress, and Faroese journos seems to take it for granted she will jump since she mentioned "Liberal values" (basically an announcement), but she will not get into the government since she would then have to give up her seat to her PP substitute and that would cost Progress (and the coalition) a much needed "safety seat".

So 18-15 most likely. The recount did not move the second Home Rule seat. Home Rule gained 1, Progress 2 and SD 19. If Progress had gained just 10 or SD 30 on Home Rule they could have gotten it. So really close. 9 more to Progress or 12 to SD would have secured the coalition an extra seat.

Republic Youth urges their mother party to secure the Faroes takes boat refugees.

Overview of the 13 party jumpers in the last 19 years.
(Will translate it later, but you can get the general impression. Notice the Republic SoCon policeman Karsten Hansen, who jumped to Centre when Republic started supporting making hate speech against gays a crime.)

2015-unknown:
1. Annika Olsen – PP (to Progress?)
 
2011-15:
2. Gerhard Lognberg – SD to Union. Not reelected.
3. Janus Rein – Progress to PP. Not reelected.
 
2008-11:
4. Poul Michelsen – PP to Progres (which he founded). Reelected.
 
2004-08:
5. Karsten Hansen – Republic to Centre. Reelected.
6. (Heðin Mortensen – Mayor of Torshavn, 1. substitute in the Løgting) - UP to SD. Elected.
 
2002-04:
7. Helena Dam á Neystabø – Home Rule to SD. Not reelected.
 
1998-02:
None
 
1994-1998:
8. Kristian Magnussen – Workers' Union to SD. Reelected.
9. Karl Robert Johansen –Workers' Union to SD. Not reelected.
10. Finnbogi Arge – UP to PP. Not reelected.
 
1990-94:
11. Lasse Klein – Home Rule to Christian People's Party. Reelected.
(went back to Home Rule after CPP was dissolved and is now their party secretary)
12. Tordur Niclasen – Christian People's Party to Centre. Reelected.

1988-90:
None
 
1984-88:
13. Adolf Hansen – Christian People's Party to the Progress Party (which the founded). Not reelected.

Maybe she starts a new party.

13 is quite a lot for such a small assembly.

Who are the most likely candidates to jump during this term?

was not Annika Olsen the one who voted in favor of the bill on sexual orientation discriminaiton back in 2006?

Not likely. It would basically be Progress II and the market for separatist centre-right parties is too crowded.

Henrik Old to Centre over gay marriage is the only other potential jumper I can think of. Those who lose the coming UP power struggle may go elsewhere, but I doubt it.

With those figures same-sex marriage is done.

Even if Old resists a bit.

But I guess SD will not want Old out as it would be a too pro-independence coalition and SD would no longer be the majority party.

No, and he is from their "heart land" in Suduroy. If the Sudbury SoCons leave the party would be a lot weaker. Three of their eight seats this time went to Suduroy candidates.

Also, we do not yet know if Bjarni Hammer is against gay marriage (which would mean only 16 government pro-gay marriage votes), but Annika Olsen defecting clearly increase the chances (if she is pro, but hard to imagine otherwise).

I guess Annika is pro, at least registered partnership.
She can also stay as independent, but even in that case, she would support the movement.

Home Rule actually left the talks this morning. They did it over two things:

1) The others wanted gay marriage to be part of the coalition agreement, while Home Rule wanted a referendum.

2) The others wanted all fishing quotas put on auction, while Home Rule wanted settlement quotas, minimum quotas for established busineseses and several other modifications.

Annika Olsen specifically mentioned the party leadership declining MPs the right to vote their conscience on ethical matters as a major reason for the break (in addition to being the only Liberal left in the group). So she is with 100% certainty pro-gay marriage.

Former Mayor of Runavik, Rodmundur Nielsen, who was a substitute MP 2011-15, but failed to get elected, has also left PP. Interesting if more will follow (not MPs, but local politicians, ex-MPs etc.).

That means gay marriage is part of the agreement and Old has not opposed.

No, in all likelihood it means they have 17 seats without him (Hammer then being pro). They probably got tempted to get tough with HR when they heard Annika O. had defected.

But also two points that were hard to compromise on:

Full auction of all fishing quotas is the only way to get enough revenue to finance the current welfare state (+some long overdue upgrades and improvements for poors) without raising taxes (and even cutting some) and therefore necessary for a left/right compromise.

And Progress needs gay marriage to signal they are the primary champions of Social Liberalism and they won't risk a referendum. Which would also get very ugly and with international media highlighting the Faroes as a bigoted and backwards place filled with rapid homophobes and vitriolic fire and brimstone preachers. Not the image the leftists and SocLibs want to project.

Now it is a matter of when.

It may take ages like in Greenland or be faster.

No, Greenland was because of bureaucratic inefficiency and slip-ups. This is different. They are ideologically motivated to do it (and especially Progress wants it done fast) and their administration is efficient.

Btw Annika O. said she had not yet decided which party to join, but expect to do so soon. So not going to be an Indie. Hard to see her going anywhere else than Progress.

Even if they want it fast, family law is competence of Denmark.

Even if the Faroese administration is efficient, the implementation has to be done from Denmark as far as I know.

It was not only the Greenlandic administration, but also the Danish one, which has its times.

No, not really. They are implementing the Danish law and can just copy most of the necessary adjustments. The relevant current Danish laws simply have an exception for the Faroes, which can just be removed by the Faroese joining in.

It was things like the Greenlandic translation of documents not being done in time and an election being called before they could get it on the agenda etc. that delayed it in Greenland. DK had nothing to do with it.

That is only if it does not affect other laws, so that they can just prepare a decree, I assume.

Why do you say Denmark has nothing to do with it if it is its competence?

In any case, same-sex marriage was already discussed in the Faroese assembly.

On the fishing cuotas...I still do not understand how two left and a right wing party can match beyond that. Maybe if they agree on what to do with it right now, they will disagree on broader economic issues after that.

In a fishing nation this is the central issue. The left being in favour of the free market on quotas makes them the only allies for Progress on this. Progress know they only have a few seats. They are willing to pay a prize to get this reform, since it is a necessary first step in the transformation of Faroese economy they want. If they agree on taxes and fishing quotas, welfare and liberalizing farming legislation that is the central elements. Monetary policy and currency matters are controlled by Denmark (and the market of course), so there aren't that many economic issues besides fiscal policy to disagree on.

The key is that in a natural resources based economy you can finance the public sector without having high taxes if you sell the right to use those resources for a good enough prize. That changes the standard left/right divide quite a bit.

Those other laws are broadly similar to Denmark's.

I said that Denmark had nothing to do with the delay of the Greenlandic gay marriage because it hadn't. All the clusterf#cks and slip-ups happened in Greenland. I love Greenlanders, but they are not great organizers or known for the efficiency of their bureaucrats.

Also, Greenland decided on gay marriage ultimo May and implements it from October 1. That is a mere 4 months and that even includes the summer holidays (so really three effective months). Wouldn't be surprised if the Faroes try to get it done before Christmas (December1.?), or at least from New Years.

They discussed it in the faroes before, the tempos will be similar i suppose

At that time, according to the news, they presented the proposal in november and voted in march. March would be a possible date.

anyway, they may say a time schedule for their reforms tomorrow.

Not likely. This is a whole new situation with the government behind it. The earlier proposal was a members bill.

Remember there is great symbolic value in this.

So one would expect an announcement tomorrow on a time schedule?

Faroese media speculate about something I also thought about. Poul Michelsen is 71 and there are no obvious successors in Progress, and since Annika Olsen is one of the most popular politicians in Torshavn (where their potential is greatest) and an excellent communicator she would be an obvious choice for successor. So if she joins Olsen could take over in a year or two, while Michelsen concentrates on running a ministry. They got along well together when Michelsen was in Progress.

If she can get the Liberal part of PP from the central islands to vote Progress, Progress might eventually overtake PP. Their problem is this might be a two wave exodus. First the Libertarians left in 2011 and if the Torshavn (Havnar) and Stremoy Liberals join them now PP could lose its position as one of the "Big 4" in Faroese politics - which would further diminish their appeal. They would be left with shrinking demographics, whereas Progress would have the young/youngish urban/exurban (#) and well-educated segments.

#In the Faroes this includes big settlements within easy driving distance from Torshavn. The central part of the country is getting highly integrated with all those tunnels the have build.

()
The next chairman of Progress?

They may want to consult with the administration first.

The administratiuon - that reminds me of Belgium - without politicians it did quite decently :D

Annika seems quite young, thought she was older, I dont know why.

The reason why I said March is because when Helle Thorning took power, the caolition was also determined to pass same-sex marriage, but it took about six months.

Maybe it is faster now, lets see.

Not comparable scenarios. Denmark started out with a lot of work to do (even if there were some overlaps with countries that had done it before, there were lots of details that differed), while the Faroes can copy almost all of the legislation they need from Denmark - since their systems are nearly identical.

She is 40 - not sure how old the pic is.

She was then very young in 2006 when the discrimination bill.

Isnt greenlandic law also alike?

She probably didn't know this two weeks ago ::)

How could she? She did not know the internal election result back then.

She was hoping her wing of the party got a much better election than they did. There were 9 members in the old parliamentary group - incl. a defector from Progress - and a third of them were Liberals. If the other two had been reelected it would have been 3/3. But Conservatives got 5 of 6 seats in the election, so she was then left as the lone Liberal with no chance of getting control of the party.

Remember she tried to get the executive committee to organize a leadership election in 2011, so she could challenge Jørgen Niclasen. Her dissatisfaction with the leadership is not a new thing.

Yes, but see my post above about the efficiency of Greenlandic bureaucrats. ;)

There are major cultural and mentality differences between Greenlanders and Faroese.

Not even in the faroes laws are passed overnight

And yes different mentality but Greenland has registered partnership since the 90s

Illbe away for three days, onmonday i will find out the result!

No one said they were. Irrelevant comment.

The point is 2 to 2 1/2 months should be enough and there is a symbolic gesture in giving the gay community a Christmas present, so they may try to do that. Or go for the standard January 1.

Looking at the internal votes in PP we can see that Annika Olsens two allies Rodmundur Nielsen and Progress defector Janus Rein were far from making the cut, while she lost more than the party at large (about half the party loss was the decline in her personal votes). While Niclasen was the big winner. Unlike last time when she got more than 3 times as many votes as Niclasen he was "only" 262 votes behind this time and a clear #3 (while 4th in 2011). So a very clear Liberal defeat.

1.   Jacob Vestergaard 966 (-82)
2.   Annika Olsen   961 (-383)
3.   Jørgen Niclasen   699 (+317)
4.   Jákup Mikkelsen   380 (-75)
5.   Elsebeth Mercedis Gunnleygsdóttir 371
6.   Jógvan á Lakjuni   365
-----------------------------------------
8.   Janus Rein   273 (other party)
10. Rodmundur Nielsen 197 (-81)

Total 6 102 (-781)

She still got nearly a sixth of PPs votes and 3% of the national vote of 32,374, so she took her seat on personal votes, and even if the party label played a role voters knew she was in opposition to the leadership and might defect if she lost the power struggle, so I think it was a justifiable move from a democratic POV given Faroese political culture.

UP will select their new chairman on a party conference on October 24 with local chapter representatives, the executive board and MPs voting on it. So far only Bardur Nielsen is running.

Only news from the coalition talks is that the Ministry of the Interior (which was scrapped in 2013 after Kari Høygaaard from HR left the government), will be reestablished.

Got the tale of how Annika Olsen failed to become the chairman of PP from a Faroese acquaintance residing in her home town Vagur on Suduroy. It is quite illustrative of Faroese politics (or at least certain aspects of it).

PP elects chairman by their national board and the chairman of their local chapters together proposing one candidate to the party conference, which then "elects" that person. Very archaic. Of course this de facto amounts to an election of sorts anyway. It looked like Annika Olsen had a one seat majority among the electors, but then a couple of members of the PP board on her home island Suduroy called a board meeting - without telling their chairman - who was Annika Olsen's dad Jakup Olsen - about it, and elected a new chairman, who supported Jørgen Niclasen. After which Annika Olsen was one seat short of a majority in the electoral body and the incumbent Niclasen got reappointed. Jakup Olsen then left PP. So no wonder there is no love lost between her an the Niclasen wing.

Jakup Olsen's way to PP is also somewhat interesting. Vagur is a leftist sort of place (this being Suduroy), but also quite SoCon (this being Suduroy). At the last municipal election Republic got 41.5% and SD 32.7%, most of the rest went to a local list dominated by various Conservatives. Only 9% UP. Unionism basically makes you an SD by default in this part of the Faroes.

As a young teacher returning to his home settlement from Denmark Jakup Olsen joined Republic. Getting increasingly frustrated with the incompetence of his local branch and having advanced to principal of the local school he looked for a new party and since the Unionists in SD and UP were no option and PP a bridge too far he ended up in the Christian Peoples Party! - the most SoCon party ever to be founded in the Faroes, but also with a focus on health care, education and local communities. Olsen then got elected to the Løgting for them 1994-98, a time when the party basically collapsed and the 1992 founded Centre ate up most of their support. Olsen continued in his local municipal council for another three years for that Conservative dominated local list. Having invested in a couple of trawlers for borrowed money in the mid 90s and increasingly becoming quite well-off he then jumped to PP in the mid 00s and became head of the local board.

Apparently Olsen was never particularly religious The only ideological consistency in this is staying on the separatist side of that cleavage (and moving to the right as he got wealthier).

His wife Marna is still in Republic, the sister of former Republic Minister of Culture and Social Affairs Óli Holm and the aunt of their current Mayor, social scientist and director of their Social Science Research Institute Dennis Holm, also from Republic). And they get all along fine.

Apparently Olsen was never religious, but just a few years back most of the culture war stuff didn't exist in the Faroes. No one thought about gay marriage, free porn, legal prostitution etc. and it was just accepted that abortion was technically illegal, but if you knew the right doctor it really wasn't. The ban on free sale of alcohol was a minor nuisance, but people were member of their local beer club, and if you wanted to get pissed in the company of others, you knew were to go, and if you were looking for a pub brawl, there were a club for that sort of thing too.

The introduction of the gay marriage think really changed things and the former Christian Peoples Party guy and his daughter ended up on the SoLib side of the culture war - and got couped by the SoCons.

The coalition agreement will be signed at 4PM local time (in one hour) at a public ceremony, so we should know the portfolio distribution and the main points in the agreement by then.

The new Løgting meets tomorrow to approve the election result and the new government + elect a new Speaker.

Gay marriage not directly - just equal opportunities for all citizens and "vote your conscience" on ethical matters + they want family and inheritance law under Faroese control, which may be an indiction they will do it. Still, disappointing.

Main goals:

- Market based fishing reform implemented from 1/1 2018
- Lower taxes for low- and medium incomes
- Freezing the Danish state grant (= not regulating it for inflation), taking home immigration, air space and family & inheritance law. A Faroese Constitution to be voted on in a referendum in 2017 at the latest. Enhanced Foreign Service (they got 8 diplomatic missions currently - even if foreign policy is a realm matter, so trying to push the limit further.
- Trying to combat population loss and gender imbalance by a comprehensive youth policy, better educational opportunties at home and better conditions for families with children. No immigration policy.
- Improving long term economic sustainability by better conditions for entrepreneurs and evening out economic cycles (Keynesian fiscal policy).
- Improved healthcare (did not look for details).
- New comprehensive pension system + eliminating injustices in taxation of pensions.
- Making the Faroes 100% energy self sufficient with renewable energy (mainly hydro- , but some wind energy - should be doable with their terrain and weather - they are not exactly short of wild rivers and wind pup there ;) )

Except gay marriage pretty much as expected - keeping on pushing the constitutional limits on separatism, but avoiding an actual  roadmap to independence. Seems like a decent compromise.

"Solidarity, Self-Reliance and Freedom" is the title of the agreement btw. Big Left/Right/Nationalist compromise there ;)

The distribution of portfolios is 4:3:1. Names to be announced tomorrow.

SD: PM, Social Services, Culture and Interior Affairs.
Republic:Finance, Fishing and Health (a power combo in a Faroese context) + the Speaker
Progress: Business + Foreign Affairs as one department. So Michelsen gets Foreign Affairs.

Will be interesting to see who in Republic gets Deputy PM with that distribution - still probably Hoydal.

Guess I should revise my prognosis now that I know the portfolios and that HR is out:

SD:

PM: Aksel Johannesen
Culture: Still Rigmor Dam
Interior: Eyðgunn Samuelsen (the all-round workhorse for the "Ministry of Everything")
Social Affairs: One of the 3 Suduroy MPs - Michelsen is a Mayor, so probably Hammer or Old (to pacify him if they go ahead with gay marriage - otherwise Hammer). Leaving Suduroy without a post would be too dangerous internally + Heðin Mortensen is the Mayor of Torshavn. Not seeing him give that up for a small and "soft" ministry.

Republic:
Finance: Still Kristina Hafoss (anything else would be a sensation)
Health: Still Sirið Stenberg
Fishing and Deputy PM: A powerhouse. Gotta be Høgni Hoydal, even if its an odd choice.

Progress:
Business and Foreign Affairs: Poul Michelsen (Business was my first guess for him, but thought it was too lightweight for a party leader and changed it to Fishing - combined with foreign trade it gets on par with fishing.

Speaker: Annita á Fríðriksmørk (I think they will choose a woman - so Stenberg if she doesn't get a Ministry (if Kallsberg gets Health)

Would give a 4/4 gender balance (quite a feat with 3 male party leaders) + a female Speaker.

After Home Rule withdrew from the negotiations Aksel Johannesen said that gay marriage would not be part of the coalition agreement (which all MPs have to support), as HR had alleged, but to be decided by a vote where MPs can "vote their conscience", so it is no surprise that it is not included (I had forgotten that detail).

There might also be an extra pro-gay marriage vote as the town council in Klaksvik declined Skorheim the right to be Mayor and MP simultaneously and he chose to stay on as Mayor. His substitute Bárður Kass Nielsen is expected to be pro gay marriage - but no public statement from him.

The new government presented:

SD:
PM: Aksel Johannesen
Culture: Rigmor Dam
Interior: Henrik Old
Social Affairs: Eyðgunn Samuelsen

Republic:
Finance: Kristina Hafoss
Health: Sirið Stenberg
Fishing and Deputy PM: Høgni Hoydal

Progress:
Business and Foreign Affairs: Poul Michelsen

I got most of them right. The only miss was that Samuelson only got Social Affairs, while a Suduroy MP got the Interior. Henrik Old got the "Suduroy-seat" in the cabinet, which may indicate that SDs resident SoCon has been paid to accept a vote on gay marriage. Old would not otherwise have been an obvious choice.

A 50/50 gender distribution for the first time ever.  

The Speaker became former professional soccer play Páll á Reynatúgvu (R), so I got that one wrong as well.

The government will apply for Faroese EFTA membership, which they have tried once before only to be turned down because they are not a sovereign state, but they are closer to being one now and perhaps the others will accept them this time. Iceland will back them (like last time).

Sonja Jógvansdóttir has submitted a bill giving same sex couples equal marital rights as a private member bill. It will be one of the first things on the new Løgting's agenda.

Smart way to do it. She is not in the government, so it's not officially government backed, which gives Old a fig leaf so he can keep supporting the government while voting against gay marriage on ethical grounds. Annika Olsen, a couple of liberal UPs + maybe Bardur Kass Nielsen will vote for it, so there should be a solid majority.

Old has clearly been bought. Wonder if his SoCon Suduroy voters will accept this set-up.

Sonja Jógvansdóttir has left the SD group because she doesn't want to be part of a group that blocked gay marriage from being part of the coalition agreement (as Progress wanted and Republic supported), she still supports the coalition "to keep Faroese politics to the left" and deplore that "the few that shout the loudest" gets to set the agenda and dominate the majority on this issue. So Old wasn't briebed. He (and likely Hammer, otherwise this doesn't make sense - Hammer was always the joker) blocked it from becoming part of the coalition agreement. Still, the agreement says MPs from the government  parties will get to vote their conscience on ethical matters, so her members bill might pass - unless some SDs abstain to keep the peace in the party. Might get close now. The 8 ministers are replaced by their subs, and while this is irrelevant in Republic and Progress it makes it impossible to predict the breakdown of SDs.

Technically it is a minority government now, which is highly unusual for the Faroes, but legally fine, of course.

Aksel Johannesen has said that SD during the election campaign stated that MPs could vote their conscience on ethical matters like gay marriage and that it was never meant to be in the government agreement as that would bind all government MPs to vote for it.

Both Progress and Republic wanted it included and it is clear that Johannessen blocked it (even if none admits it), which is no surprise, but apparently too much of a provocation for Jogvansdottir.

Trouble in SD. Several members of their youth wing Socialist Youth has left them over the gay marriage debacle. Including SY chairman Oda Kjartansdóttir Strøm.

It turn out Sonja Jogvansdottir was actually offered a place in the government - as Minister of the Interior, but she wanted Social Affairs, where she could work with the equality and poverty related issues she is passionate about, not being bogged down in troubles with ferry lines, municipal reform and green energy conversion etc.

All in all it seems she has made her position worse - since Old got into the cabinet on her expense. Apparently Samuelson wanted the more ideologically profiled Social Affairs and pulled rank, but Johannessen was reportedly actually willing to go for a non-Suduroy distribution with both Jogvansdottir and Samuelson in it (making it a 5-3 female majority). Guess Sonja J. is more of an activist than a politician - she definitely played that wrong.

Anyway, Faroese media expect a majority for gay marriage (but then the internal SoCon backlash will starts..).

They may have realign their party system over this. It is based on two cross cutting cleavages (separatism/economics), but now you got the SoCon/SoLib messing up the old pattern. Maybe Progress won't be the last new party we see. Still, it all depends what happens after gay marriage. Whether legalizing it will open the debate on abortion, alcohol sale, gambling, prostitution and porn (yeah, its still illegal on the Faroes - outside of the internet ;) ) + the role of the church in education. Faroese parties are not designed to handle this (except Centre and Progress). Republic has very few SoCons left and will probably just leave without much ado, but the others could be torn apart.

If there is a compromise of sorts on separatism (maybe free association) - and it looks like it is heading that way - then the old system will increasingly be outdated.

To no ones surprise Annika Olsen has joined Progress, so they now have a majority government again after 1 day with the first minority government in Faroese history.

Her immediate reward will be the chairmanship in the Fiscal Committee. The government, Sonja J. and Home Rule have formed an electoral alliance in the committee elections, so they have 20 out of 33 seats and can dominate the committee selection later today. Her long term reward will likely be to succeed Poul Michelsen as party leader in a couple of years.

Faroese newspaper Sosialurin has asked the MPs about gay marriage and despite a few surprises it looks like a certain Yes. Annika Olsen refused to declare in the poll, but since she has later joined Progress, that doesn't accept "conscience votes" on gay rights, she is counted as a yes. Magni Arge from Republic will go on leave before the vote, since he has chosen to keep his seat in the Folketing, but his sub is bound to be pro, there are hardly any SoCons left in Republic these days. Since Henrik Old is in the government and his sub is pro, that is a one seat gain.


For (16-14 declared + 2 bound to be)

Republic 7
Progress 3
SD 4
Jogvansdottir
UP 1


Wont say:

SD 3 (incl. 2 Suduroy MPs + surprisingly, the Mayor of Torshavn Hedin Mortensen)
UP 3 (KLJ - who has previusly said he is pro, Deputy Chairman Bardur Nielsen and former chairman Edmund Joensen, who is ka settlement politician and known as a SoCon settlement politician). It seems Nielsen tries to avoid declaring to not spoil his chances in the leadership election, KLJ won't declare as chairman in a divided party and Joensen.. Who knows, maybe he just feels its an inappropriate question to a 70+ former PM.


No (11):

PP 5
Centre 2
Home Rule 2 (Skorheims replacement is also a SoCon)
UP 2

So to lose you would need both a former PM; who has previously said he supports it and has already decided to step down as chairman + the Mayor of the capital with the 5000+ gay pride parade to vote No, as well as all undecided voting No. Most likely at least Bardur Nielsen will abstain. Hedin Mortensen also likely to do so if he doesn't vote yes.

While there aren't 17 MPs who have said they will vote for it, I fail to see how the opponents can get 17 No votes to vote down the 16 pro-gay marriage votes or the 16 for a tie.

Turns out Sonja J. did not actually file a gay marriage proposal at the Løgting office, as she said she would. She is trying to get a broad coalition of MPs to be co-sponsors of the proposal, which would make it harder for the centre-right to see it as a "leftist" or "government" bill. So far economic historian Magni Laxafoss from UP is the only opposition politician, that has declared open support for the proposal. I think it would be fitting if KLJ co-sponsored it, it would partially make up for him demanding UP bloc voting against gay marriage in 2014 to suck up to his SoCon coalition partners.

I have two questions:

When would tey be expected to discusss such bill now?

If the transfer of family law to the home rule is part of the agreement, would someone argue to havethe whole matter transferred before same sex marriageis introduced?

To the second question: I am sure someone will, but it will be a non-starter, since Jogvansdottir can just present the bill herself and 16 MPs have publicly committed to support it (all either from unionist parties or pro-gay rights Progress and Republic). The parties this would matter to: PP and Home Rule, have no pro-gay marriage MPs anyway.

Jogvansdottir has been advised to try to secure UP co-sponsors by former PM Joannes Eidesgaard (an SD left winger like herself) among others to make absolutely sure it pass - even if someone gets cold feet (however unlikely that is). They are likely courting KLJ and possibly Bardur Nielsen (who has never declared his position publicly). Of the undeclared KLJ and Kristin Michelsen have previously declared support. Getting at least one of the two elderly Mayors (Mortensen and Michelsen) on board is likely also a priority. It is also a matter of securing it isn't reversed by a new government. If a big part of UP backs the bill it will be impossible to reverse (it is 1-3-2 at present). Securing a united SD (not unthinkable since Old is kicked upwards to the Cabinet) is likely also an ambition. You got three undeclared: Two old guys (one who has previously shown support and the other the Mayor of liberal Torshavn) and a 47 year old teachers union deputy chairman from little Sandoy. All personally Christian, but none of them likely to be rapid homophobes. A 7-0 SD vote would be a big advantage.

So it might take a while. Since the priority has changed from getting it done ASAP to securing it can't be undone.

I understand.

I already noted in some earlier post that securing thata new government will not repeal it is important, so it is wise they take their time. In myopinion, a 17 -16 is too weak for this.

Of course the transfer of family law can be used as an argument to justify before the electorate that this matter will take some time.

And i agree withwhat you say: Sonja may be passionate activist, which is great for activism, but politics is something difficult and manythings have to be taken into account, both political and legal.

I expect them to submit a proposal within a week or two, which will be far sooner than they start taking home family law. She is just trying to get the right co-sponsors of the bill.

On the topic of Joannes Eidesgaard (64) he also played a part in persuading the SD young wing, Socialist Youth, into declaring unconditional loyalty to the mother party after chairman Oda Strøm and treasurer Barbara Gaardlykke Apol left in support of Jogvansdottir and also used his influence among unions.

It seemed Eidesgaard for a while feared a big part of the left wing would split and form a new party possibly allowing the rest of SD to drift towards the center and go Third Way-ish and "continental" (not considered a good thing among Faroese leftists). Though that may be an overinterpretation at least he was quite busy doing some damage control.

Only one-two weeks? I would not consider it a while for having same sex marriage.

But of course, and as a private bill, since it is submitted in the office until it is debated it may take some weeks more.

And UP MPS may not want to decide on relevant issues until they clarify their leadership in the end of october

All this is of course  speculation, Sonja may take the previous bill with the same text and simplysubmit it. But i think it willbe relevant for her to have at least a good number of membrrs 3 of the big 4 parties on board.

This issue seems causing problems to Sd though

No, no. One to two weeks before she has the co-sponsors lined up and can submit the bill. Then the standard procedure starts with the Speaker announcing it to the members and them getting the bill send, then a first debate, committee hearing in the Justice Committee with interested parties being heard, second debate, possibly back to committee hearing and then third debate with the actual vote. Because there is this formal announcement by the Speaker before members get the proposal it is actually a four step procedure, where the Danish is a three step.

If it was a pre-agreed government proposal (like Republic and Progress wanted) they could have speeded things up in various ways (skipped the second debate and fast tracked it through committee) and made it a "Christmas present" with all the symbolism attached, but now it will take time - likely with amendments to be discussed etc. Maybe by Valentines ;), but that is not so big on the Faroes yet.

(unlike you I have never been that interested in when - more whether it was possible to get it done at all. The whole thing has been blocked by all the crosscutting cleavages and "strange bedfellows" coalitions in Faroese politics for years.)

I am interested in when because I have never had doubts it will happen, sooner or later.

I am going to be close to my guess about March 2016 I guess.

But dont you agree that UP members may like to wait to define themselves on this big issue until the leadership is clarified?

Of course Sonja may do it even without considering UP at all.

It will happen sooner or later - but the interesting thing was whether it happened as a result of this election, or not. And that was far from a sure thing right up to Henrik Old accepted a cabinet position (= him not threatening to quit and one less No vote).

If the vote is before October 24 both Kass Nielsen and KLJ might abstain, not sure why Edmund Joensen didn't want to declare (he is certainly against). Either he felt it was an inappropriate question to an "elder statesman" or - more likely - he has decided to abstain to not split the party and let the younger generation decide. If it is after October 24 all of them are more likely to vote.

You have the two settlement farmers against and the Torshavn academic for - a very classic pattern, and then you have the former, current and likely future leader all declining to tell, despite Edmund Joensen previously being against and KLJ previously being pro. And that is due to the leadership election. I doubt Bardur Nielsen will co-sponsor before October 24, but KLJ doesn't have much to lose - unless he is still toying with running again, as he said he contemplated after he got all the "please stay" calls after the election. Him not declaring on this is an indication he hasn't totally giving up that idea yet.

Another question mark is Kari Højgaard from Home Rule. Despite being against he abstained in 2014 vote, because he was the sole rep for a divided party. Now they are two anti-gay marriage MPs in an equally divided party (60-40 pro as I understand it). So logically Højgaard should abstain (he won't actually vote for it), but he may have changed his mind about this "fairness principle".

Annika Olsen has left Progress again and gone on leave - she has thereby also relinquished her chairmanship in the Fiscal Committee, so some sort of falling out between her and Michelsen likely. Despite her reluctance to openly declare how she would vote I doubt it is over gay marriage. None of her actions make sense if she is against that.

This means an extra "No" vote and makes things a little trickier. Especially if Olsen decides simply to quit politics (there isn't really anywhere else she can go now).

Why do you say en extra no?

To me all these movements sounds weird...

Old is kicked up but gay marriage is not part of the agreement...it will be a private bill...Sonja leaves the SD group, (also the party?).

Now without Annika, if I am not wrong, there is a minority government (of course there is SOnja supporting it but not into the group). Problems appear in SD over this issue

Now Annika leaves somewhere. And I agree I do not think over gay marriage so it must be somethinh else going on wit PRogress and her (maybe economic policies)?

In just two weeks, two defections.

Is this really normal up there?

And if Annika is on leave, does it mean the assembly works with 32 members?

Because her substitute is the next on the PP list, and he is a Conservative. So it is 15-12, with 6 undeclared. If 3 decides to abstain and 3 vote against it falls, and that is not completely unrealistic. We are back to uncertainty from "it can not really go wrong".

They needed to promote one of the three Suduroy MPs and the other two are a Mayor and a Deputy Mayor, who may not be interested in cabinet, but prefer to represent their local constituents as MPs and at the same time stay in local politics. I was actually surprised they offered Jogvansdottir a ministry in the first place, because she is a novice and it would have been a snub to the Suduroy MPs.

Actually not sure if she has left the party, but she will be expelled if she hasn't and stays out of the group. Johannessen has said they would welcome her back. She may rejoin in the end - if gay marriage pass.


1) There is a minority government, but with a 17-16 majority incl. Jogvansdottir, so save enough. She has said she agrees with the entire government agreement and is fully supportive.

2) Poul Michelsen is a selfmade businessman and pretty dominant. He basically pushed his fellow MP out of the party last term by insisting Janus Rein ran in the municipal election in Torshavn, despite Rein having no interest in local politics. Olsen and Michelsen are two big egos. Perhaps too big for one small party.

3) I posted the list with party defections earlier - there is usually 1-2 in a term, but not so soon. This is very unusual, but the circumstances are also unusual. Their whole party system has been structured along two cleavages: socioeconomic and unionist-separatist. Now social issues comes along as a new cleavage and some people do not fit in in the old parties. But these defections are different: one is a passionate activist, who is a political novice and got surprised how politics works and then acted spontaneously and emotionally. The other is a very ambitious woman, who lost a power struggle and then had her hopes that voters would give her another chance to take over her party shattered.

I've not much to contribute, but I really enjoy every bit of this thread and of the enormous amount of information you provide on this fascinating little country. Thanks for that, politicus!

And who is replacing Annika?

Good monday. Lets see what brings the Faroese politics this week!

Joen Magnus Rasmussen (49). He is the manager of a fishing factory in a settlement called Leirvik on Eysturoy and was an MP 2011-15, but didn't get reelected.

Not candidate to go to Progress

Not sure what you mean? He isn't going anywhere, he is a Conservative settlement businessman.

If you are talking about the seat, then Olsen was elected on the PP list. It is their seat, so they get it back if she goes on leave or withdraws.

For a moment I thought that the personal vote also played a role in the replacement of MPs who resign.

It does in the sense that the non-elected candidate that got the most votes gets to be the substitute. Rasmussen got the 7th most votes for PP.

Sonja J. made a wriiten commitment to support the government agreement btw. So they have a formal majority behind it again.

They are 17 again.

Did she say anything on her gay marriage bill?

No. She did leave the party btw.

Regarding Annika Olsen she has said two things about why she left Progress:

1) She was under immense pressure and had even been threatened, so she needed time off with her family.

2) She had second thoughts about supporting a government from the side her voters voted against. Whether or not those "second thoughts" came before or after someone had threatened her, she didn't say.

Gay marriage was according to Greenlandic AG Sermitsiaq, which is generally dependable on Faroese stuff, a big factor in her leaving PP, so even if she hasn't declared she must be pro (which is also the only logical thing).

Progress has nominated Ruth Vang, Michelsens substitute as MP, for the chairmanship in the Finance Committee if Olsen doesn't return, but there are no plans to rearrange chairmanships if Olsen stays as an independent - which is a bit weird given the importance of the post, but presumably they like her to stay friendly - even if she is officially "opposition" now.

A faroese friend of mine pointed out that Edmund Joensen is actually listed as an LGBT-hero (no less) on LGBT Føroyars website for eliminating the use of the derogatory term "kynsvillingur" (gender disturbed) in parliament when he has Speaker and changing the public discourse about homosexuality as PM, plus being among the advocates that secured gays got covered by the anti-discrimination paragraph in the penal code. So even if he is a 71 year old settlement politician he is at least not a homophobe and he may have declined to declare because he is seriously thinking about it despite his upbringing and background.  
I only had my impression about him being anti-gay from that radio debate with the youth politicians where the Young Unionist guy mentioned him as anti-gay marriage, but its probably more complicated.

Checked Sonja J.s facebook and she writes she has already submitted it along with "several other co-sponsors", but no names.

Also, one comment mentioned the obvious: They already voted on a gay marriage bill in 2014, which had been through committee and thoroughly debated, so they can just reuse it. It still has to go through all steps, but some will likely be a formality. It is not put on the calendar yet, but presumably it will soon.

Why would not SD want it as part of the agreement?

Because they were divided and a minority is against it (and other would prefer not having to defend it to their voters as government policy). They also promised to make it a "conscience vote" during the campaign.

When you say it is not put in the calendar, you mean æthe calendar of the Lagting?

Yeah (Løgting in Faroese and English, Lagting is the Danish version).

If she submitted it, this may be done within this year or beginning of the next as latest. (i mean fully done).

The majority in favor seems undisputable.

Well, its 15-12 with 6 unknown. Not really "indisputable", but the odds are good.

Is there already the calendar?

Nothing on it yet:
http://www.logting.fo/schedules/view.gebs?menuChanged=57 (http://www.logting.fo/schedules/view.gebs?menuChanged=57)

Maybe it is scheduled for October.

You can just move the calendar forward - there is nothing noted for October yet.

Sonja J. has submitted the marriage equality proposal today together with the equality spokespersons from the three government parties: Bjørt Samuelsen (Republic), Kristianna Winther Poulsen (SD) and Hanna Jensen (Progress). So no high profile opposition figures on board.

Apparently I misread her facebook info (it was in Faroese after all), maybe she just wrote she intended to do it. Anyway, its done now.

Ahhh, that sounds OK. SO that it should be in the calendar soon.

I found this  news but do not know what is about, as I cannot read faroese, maybe you can guess it.

It says something about first october?

http://kvf.fo/greinar/2015/09/24/uppskot-broyta-hjunabandslogina-latid-tinginum#.VgQTwtLtmko

It says its the same proposal Bjørt Samuelsen, Rigmor Dam and Poul Michelsen presented in the last election term and that the parliamentary secretariat (Løgtingsskrivstovan) will now look into the legal consequences/do a legal evaluation (or something to that effect) and expects to present it before the Løgting early in next month (= the Speaker will announce it and members get a copy).

And after the members get the copy, the whole process will start, I guess. If they run, it may be approved in December.

()

Party strength


National:

People's Party 18,9      
Union 18,7   
Social Democrats 25,1   
Home Rule 4,1   
Republic 20,7   
Progress 7,0   
Centre 5,5


Capital area:
      
PP 13,5      
Union 14,4      
SD 27,0
HR 2,0   
Republic 25,8   
Progress 11,8   
Centre 5,5


Rest of Streymoy:

PP 15,8      
Union 17,3      
SD 27,6   
HR 3,0      
Republic 22,8   
Progress 9,0   
Centre 4,5


Eysturoy:

PP 18,5      
Union 27,2   
SD 18,5      
HR 7,4      
Republic 16,5      
Progress 5,1      
Centre 6,8


Klaksvík:   

PP 32,4      
Union 15,6      
SD 22,0      
HR 8,6      
Republic 14,2   
Progress 2,1   
Centre 5,2


Rest of Nordoyar:   

PP 38,2
Union 12,4      
SD 18,1      
HR 5,8   
Republic 15,3      
Progress 2,9      
Centre 7,4


Vágar incl. Mykines:      

PP 26,6   
Union 23,5      
SD 22,5   
HR 2,9   
Republic 16,2   
Progress 3,2      
Centre 5,2


Sandoy incl. Skuvoy:      

PP 26,9      
Union 25,9      
SD 11,9      
HR 0,8      
Republic 29,3      
Progress 2,1   
Centre 3,2


Suðuroy:   

PP 18,1      
Union 15,4      
SD 42,7      
HR 0,9      
Republic 18,4   
Progress 0,8   
Centre 3,7


The People's Party
The party is clearly strongest on the Northern Isles, but somewhat weaker in Klaksvik than in the settlements. Vagar and Sandoy is about 20% above the national average, while Suduroy and Eysturoy are very close to the national result. PP is significantly weaker on Streymoy than in the rest of the country with the Torshavn area as the worst. Explanation: fishing interests, but it doesn't explain all the differences. Streymoy is "stuck in the middle" and further from the open sea than the other islands and it hasn't got as many natural harbours so it has a relatively smaller ocean going fishing fleet.

Union Party
Remains strongest in its traditional stronghold Eysturoy with about 1.5 times the national average, Sandoy and Vagar are also strong areas for the party, Sandoy due to SD deserter Gerhard Lognberg: Suduroy, Klaksvik and the villages on Streymoy are at a level around 15-20% below average, Torshavn is even weaker than the rest of Streymoy, while the harcore separatist settlements on Nordoyar are the party's poorest region with less than 2/3 of the national average.

The Social Democrats
The party's undisputed stronghold is still “the cradle of the Faroese labour movement” Suduroy, where it got 60% more support than the national average. It is slightly above average on Streymoy (approximately equally strong in the the town and settlements), Klaksvik and Vagar are about 10% below average, while conservative Eysturoy and the likewise conservative settlements on the Northern Isles are markedly weaker, their weakest result is on Sandoy, where SD gets less than half of the national result due to a popular local hero Republican attracting heaps of leftist voters and defector Gerhard Lognberg attracting some moderates leftists to UP.

Republic
The party's best results is Sandoy which is c. 45% above the average. Second best is the captal area, where it gets a quarter more than average, while the rest of Streymoy is also more than 10% above average. Suduroy is about 10% below due to leftists down there prefering SD, while Eysturoy, Vagar and the Northern Isles are the party's weakest areas with a backing about a quarter below average. The party is weakest in Klaksvik (unusual for a leftist party to be at its weakest in the country's second largest town, but Klaksvik is in many ways still just a big village), and Republic has a few traditional strongholds in the Noordoyar settlements giving them a slightly higher average out there than in town.

Home Rule
Very uneven distribution. The party's strongholds are the Northern Islands and Eysturoy. This time topped by Klaksvik (where the party chairman Jogvan Skorheim is Mayor), where it got more than twice as large a share as the national average. The settlements on the Northern Isles are (interestingly enough) about 20% weaker than Eysturoy. It was a quarter below average in Vagar and the Streymoy-settlements, and only got half of the national result in the capital area. Suduroy is the party's clearly worst area, with only a fifth of the national average.

Progress
The party is very much a "center" party with its best result of around 70% above average in Torshavn and second strongest in the other parts of Streymoy, where it is about 30% above average. The rest of the country is below average. Eysturoy is the second best island (but still over 20% below), followed by Vagar and the Nordoyar-settlements with about 40% of the national average and then Sandoy and Klaksvk on 30%. Basically Progress becomes weaker the further out in the periphery you get and got its clearly weakest result on isolated Suduroy (just over 10% of the average). The party's focus on centralization and their Social Liberalism is the main explanation here. Klaksvik springs to mind as a clear breach of the pattern (it is below the surrounding settlements), although the town is conservative a sucky local campaign is part of the explanation here, whereas a couple of popular former HR candidates secured a better result in the settlements.

Centre
The party is basically strongest in the north and becomes weaker the further south you go - but there are many exceptions. Its absolute stronghold is the Nordoyar-settlements, where it is over 50% above average. Then follows Eysturoy with over 20% above. The capital area, Klaksvik and Vagar is at or about average. While the Streymoy settlements are about 10% below. The party's support is approximately 30% below the average on Suduroy and 40% below the Sandoy. (Most of) the Nordoyar-settlements and the Skálafjørður area on Eysturoy are the heart of the Faroese Bible Belt, but southern Suduroy also has many fundamentalists and constitutes a separate kind of Bible Belt, which only pulls Suduroy slightly above the neighbouring (secular) island of Sandoy. Suduroy remains filled with Red SoCons, who see no discrepancy between being on the left wing of the Social Democrats and sticking to a literal interpretation of the Bible. It is interesting that Centre polls the national average in the capital, where party chairman Jenis av Rani's is the municipal doctor, and Tórshavn is actually better for the party than the rest of Streymoy. The difference betwen Klaksvik and the settlements is also significant, but as one would have expected.

Note: Rest of Streymoy includes the populated islets Hestur, Koltur and Nolsoy (all in green on the map). The Capital area is Torshavn polling district (including the suburbs Hoyvik and Hvitanes) + the southern suburb Argir, which has its own polling station. The islands in yellow (of which Skuvoy and Stora Dimun are populated) are part of the Sandoy region.

Ruth Vang from Progress is appointed as new chairman of the Fiscal Committee, which is only fair and ends the Annika Olsen saga (for now). If she returns to parliament, she will be a fairly irrelevant Indie.

Do the colours of the map above meananything politically?

No, they are administrative borders. The areas having the same basic colour designates a region (syslu), while different shades within the region are used to mark municipalities. It is just that Skuvoy is yellow despite belonging to the otherwise orange Sandoy region. Then there are Sundini ("the Sounds") on both sides of the sound between northern Streamy and Eysturoy.

If you are interested the classic unionist/separatist breakdown is:

Nordoyar: separatist
Northern Streymoy: separatisy
Eysturoy: unionist
Vagar: unionist dominance, some separatist areas
Southern Streymoy: mixed, because everybody migrate to Torshavn
Sandoy: mixed
Suduroy: workers are unionist, but the wealthy are mostly PP separatists, while the educated are Republic voting separatists

Even if it isn't as important as it used to be this pattern still matters. But easy road access to Torshavn has changed northern Streymoy from a PP stronghold to a more mixed area, where PP is by now weaker than average.

It is also worth noticing that the fishermen working on the big ocean going trawlers get a share of the profit and make 170,00-250,000 dollars a year, more than, say, the administrator of the University of the Faroe Islands or a cabinet member, so they vote for the right wing, mainly PP. Coastal fishermen are poor, but there aren't many left of them.

Does the ex-PM want a referendum?

I'm new so I have to have 20 posts before I can post a link, but I found a title that says:

Skulu hava fólkaatkvøðu um samkynt hjúnalag

and mentions Kaj.

Yes, he says he thinks its "too big and profound a decision for parliament  to make, but should be decided by the Faroese people".

Very hypocritical, he could have called a plebiscite when the proposal was before the Løgting in 2014 instead of ordering his own party to vote it down.

(the Faroes can only hold non-binding plebiscites, but he wants all political parties to commit to respecting the decision)

These PMs (Kaj/Turnbull) and their plebiscites...thank you for the answer.

I edit articles on Wikipedia's LGBT rights pages and have been watching this thread lately. One question: do you know if the bill would include adoption like Greenland's?

Yes, it should be identical to the 2014 proposal and that included full equality on all issues (apart from church weddings).

A referendum on this would all of a sudden make the Faroese a lot more well-known in the world. Sadly, probably not in a positive way...

Nah, the sheer thought of Jenis av Rana on every major international news channel comparing gays to a swarm of locusts that will devour and destroy Faroese culture and way of life likely scares the sh**t out of the government and their tourist industry. Some intrepid reporter might also make it all the way to Skalafjørdur and dig up a fisherman dabbling as a Plymouth Brethren lay preacher, who would tell them God will diverge every shoal of fish far away from Faroese waters if they do this sinful deed and talk about people marrying dogs and sheeps as the inevitable next step (seemingly a favourite among Faroese settlement preachers).

Small countries that are rarely in the international news get their image defined for decades by something like this and the Faroese do not want to be perceived as backwards and bigoted (and most of them aren't either of those things). They already have the grindadrap thing defining them.

The other reason the government parties don't want a plebiscite is of course that unleashing this sh**tstorm of homophobia would be cruel towards the gay community. Even the Red SoCons in SD don't want this (they were in a position to demand one).

The whole thing would also be a pointless exercise. The opponents might push the no vote to 40%, but thats it. And it is more likely the supporters push the Yes vote to 70-72% given many moderates will be turned off by the sheer nastiness of a No campaign.

A plebiscite was only an emergency tool for the supporters, if they were a few votes short in parliament. For KLJ it is useful to make the government seem like they are "ignoring the will of the people" (even though gay marriage was a major theme in the election campaign) and patch over things in his own deeply divided party.

Thankfully, there won't be a plebiscite, so this is just signalling.

Maybe KLJ is just playing a card before the internal leadership elections of his party at the end of October? I mean, it may just be a message for the membership of the party more than for society as a whole.

In any case,  I do not think that the Faroese Assembly will have the vote on same-sex marriage before 24th October, due to the actual legislative process, so that whatever he says now may be different later.

Likely a bit of both, it does give him an excuse to vote against it (he says in the article he will do that), without contradicting his earlier statements about personally being pro-gay marriage. Now he is just protecting democracy  and the interests of the people, how noble of him...

I see no reason he should change his mind, that would just be wishful thinking.

So it is 15-13 now, but 16-12 after Annika Olsen comes back on November 1 and they won't vote before that. The opponents would need 4 out of 5 undecideds to vote no, and I still think most of them will simply abstain.

I looked at the calendar and nothing is said yet on the discussion on same-sex marriages (if I am not wrong)

Any developments, guys? :) There seem to be more squares filled out in the Logtingid site now.

By the way, politicus, I know the word samkynd, but could you tell me the Faroese words for "marriage" and "law" and "adoption" if you know them?

No news and it is not on the agenda yet, but I will ask a Faroese contact if she knows something.

Adoption is ættleiðing, marriage is hjúnaband, law is løg (as in Løgting, the Law Thing) and the marriage law is therefore called hjúnabandslógin.

The Løgting administration is currently scrutinizing the proposal and it takes longer than normal, because it is a so-called "ríkislógartilmæli" ie. a recommendation to the Danish Folketing about changing a realm law (the Faroes are currently exempt from the Danish marriage equality law). In a statement the Løgting director Jonhard Klettheyggj, says that such a recommendation is very rare, and when there is one it is usually on the initiative of a Minister, but since this isn't the case here they are looking into practice. The Løgting will go on autumn holiday for a week on Monday, but the bill is expected to be put before the Løgting in the beginning of the week after that.

Once again thank you.

When is the Folketing going to do the voting/approval for the Greenlandic marriage law? It seems Greenland wanted the law in effect by October 1, but Danish Parliament is taking longer with the bill than hoped.

That is very unfortunate after all the delay in Greenland.., but the change of government has likely affected this. The former government by Minister of Equality Manu Sareen actually proposed such a bill (L122) on May 26, even before the Inatsisartut had finalized the Greenlandic bill (on the same day) and it went to the Greenland Committee afterwards, but this bill has now been removed (or "lapsed") and I can see no new initiative.

The marriage equality part of L122 was linked to an update of the Greenlandic parental responsibility legislation to Danish standards (which is weird because the 2007 Danish Parental Responsibility Law has been the source of endless conflicts since it gives parents extended rights to see their children even if they are, well, not really suited to do so. Transferred to a Greenlandic context with their extreme level of incest and parental abuse this would be a disaster. It might as well be this aspect that killed the bill rather than the same sex marriage part.

Again, a Liberal government is unfortunately unlikely to give this high priority, whereas Sareen would have prioritized it. I am not sure I have the time to look further into this, but you can try checking Grønlandsudvalget (the Greenland Committee). The Minister responsible for family law matters is Karen Ellemann in the Social- and Interior Affairs Ministry, whereas equality is now with Ellen Trane Nørby, who is Minister of Children, Education and Equality.

Hopefully this delay will be rather short, but it might be difficult to trace exactly what is going on.

The new proposal for Greenland is expected later this autumn in the Danish Folketing.

Apparently due to the elections in June in Denmark, the proposal needs to be discussed again (for bureaucratic reasons I assume)

Here you go!

http://www.folketingstidende.dk/samling/20141/lovforslag/L122/index.aspx

My guess is that the text will be exactly the same...Just a new number.

ABout the recommendation to the Folketing to change a Realm law, and that takes longer, I wonder if it is different than the proposal in 2013, because by then they should have made the same, right?

Its exactly the same situation. A private member bill to join (or opt-in) a realm law.

Since I do not feel like returning to Atlas and feel obliged to as long as this thread is open I am closing it now. The election was  more than a month ago and the gay marriage proposal can more properly be discussed in the Great Nordic Thread on IG, especially since the Greenlandic development has now become an issue as well.

This is the old bill, which has lapsed. There is no info on any new proposal.

Sounds plausible, but not on the parliamentary agenda. What is your source?

(you can answer in the Great Nordic Thread)