Talk Elections

652 likely Colorado voters, Sept. 19 to Sept. 21:

47-45 Gardner/Udall

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2014/09/25/another-day-another-poll-shows-dead-heat-mark-udall-cory-gardner/113238

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Excellent news! Still within the margin of error, but this may actually be winnable finally.

Gardner would have to be outside the margin of error by election day in order to be decently sure of his election. Buck was ahead by 1 in the last poll, but Bennet won by 2.

Oh **** :(

BOOYAH! ;D

Decent.

I still have strong faith in the CO Republican Party to blow this in the end ...

That would line up with Gardner losing by a couple of points, same as Buck did.

Uh oh. RIP Udall. :(

1.) Unless you're on a Marist-only polling diet, the race has been essentially tied for the entire campaign.

2.) You're right about the lessons learned from Buck/Bennet.  With the exception of the low-turnout off-year 2013 conservative fiesta, the GOP in Colorado has frequently underperformed on Election Day.  Maybe 2013 was a signal of a realigned, GOP-leaning electorate, but otherwise I have to assume that the GOP will probably not do quite as well as the polling suggests.  We'll see.

Crosstabs. (http://archive.9news.com/assetpool/documents/140925121202_PPP%20ATF%20Colorado%20poll%20results%20--%20toplines.pdf)

To address 1), Gardner was doing fine enough, but with Udall barely ahead, it was bound to be Udall favorable, and to be fair, I wasn't really sure Gardner had what it takes. I'm still not, but he's proving me wrong.


The last PPP poll in Colorado that year had Buck up 1. Gardner up 2 suggests an incredibly narrow victory for Udall. If Gardner is up 3 or more by election day, he probably wins it.

R +1.

I think those assuming that a 3 point error in one election (within the margin of error) is indicative of some systemic polling bias are potentially guilty of a Type I error. Udall underperformed the polls in 2008, which seems just as likely for Udall to replicate as a repeat of Bennet's 2010 upset.

F[inks]ing Yes!

Exactly.  But even assuming that PPP is off by three points every single Colorado election, this is still not bad at all for Gardner.

Didn't PPP actually overestimate Obama's performance in Colorado by a point or two, anyway?

Moreover, I'm not on for picking apart crosstabs, because it is usually a fruitless exercise far beyond my credentials, but I'll just note that the sample in the PPP poll actually has more Democrats than Republicans as well as a 14% Hispanic sample.  There has been a lot of talk around here about Latinos staying home in protest of the White House immigration executive order delay.  In fact, I've seen that discussion in the national press, too, so I suspect that it is something that Democrats really are worried about.  I can't imagine an electorate any more D-leaning than what PPP has produced here, and still the Republicans leads by two.  Good stuff.

Hahahaha! Even PPP? Good people are taking the treasury back!

Either way, some of the crosstabs are troubling - While Independents are tied (undecideds there would be very Gardner-leaning is my guess), 10% of Democrats are undecided, and once most, if not all, come home, then Udall gets a decent sized boost.

PPP had Obama 52-46,  result was 51.45-46.09

Therefore Gardner is really up 2.64 points instead of merely two.

I'm kidding.  I'm kidding.

Oh sh*t. This is bad.

Vote by mail could give Udall a small boost too.

That said, I still think Udall wins unless Gardner has a clean lead before voting starts.

I'm sure that that is being incorporated into pollsters' turnout models.

Udall has a shot with undecideds - they are mostly somewhat liberal or moderate.

What's interesting is that Gardner is leading by 2 in a sample that's almost 70% pro-choice. Either Colorado really is Libertarian or Udall is running a sh**tty campaign.

Still say Udall wins this.

Udall will win easily

"LOL WE GOT KANSAS!"




Lose Colorado and Alaska

After looking through the crosstabs, I agree. It would not be shocked if Gardner won.

Like I said, if Udall runs a bad campaign, he loses.

Like I said, if Udall runs a bad campaign, he loses. Or if Gardner runs a really good one. There was thinking about Gardner being on a short list for VP for the R ticket.

Silver floats the hypothesis that Pubs closing the airtime gap might explain it. (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-a-troubling-trend-for-democrats-in-colorado/)

If you had told me that Mark Udall was more at risk than Kay Hagan even 6 months ago, I would've laughed in your face. Damn.

Dominating!



(It is still very, very close though :P.)

Udall will win easily.

I think Gardner has a pretty good chance of beating Udall. This race is going to be narrow either way.

Well, so much for Udall's supposed surge.

I am so glad that Udall's pro-abortion campaign is failing.

I know that crosstabs tend to be wonky, but this poll actually has Gardner winning African Americans, who apparently disapprove of Obama by a 51-42 margin...

I'm seeing many delusional red avatars around here and the Gov board these days. Reminds me a bit of October 2012 just reversed. No, things are not improving for the Dems at the time. I get that you need to grasp at straws at this point, and of course things could get back in a better shape before November 4th, but right now this is not looking good, broadly speaking.

Rasmussen will be out with a new CO poll later today ...

Are you certain?