Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on September 21, 2014, 07:38:35 PM



Title: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Miles on September 21, 2014, 07:38:35 PM
Article. (http://weaskamerica.com/2014/09/21/illinois-michigan/)

Rauner (R)- 44%
Quinn (D)- 41%
Grimm (L)- 6%


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Miles on September 21, 2014, 07:41:19 PM
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Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Vega on September 21, 2014, 07:42:24 PM
Quinnmentum.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Panda Express on September 21, 2014, 07:47:39 PM
You've really done it now Rethuglicans. You've awakened the sleeping giant.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 21, 2014, 07:59:56 PM
This is IL, it was never going to be a blow-out.

I mean 41% is still a terrible spot for an incumbent 6 weeks out... but


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 21, 2014, 08:02:20 PM
Quinn will win.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 21, 2014, 08:23:46 PM
Quinn only down 3% in a WAA poll?

Time to move this baby to Lean D.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 21, 2014, 08:56:33 PM
I think what happens in polling from mid-October onwards, once the Chicago machine gets going will be telling.

But I'm starting to think Quinn will pull this out.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: KCDem on September 21, 2014, 09:01:23 PM
This race is over. The People's Pat will ride to victory on the 4th.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: IceSpear on September 21, 2014, 09:46:30 PM
Whoa, looks like it's actually happening...


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Eraserhead on September 21, 2014, 09:49:25 PM
Quinn is ready to lock this one down. It's not gonna be as close as last time either.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Free Bird on September 22, 2014, 11:39:12 AM
A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on September 22, 2014, 11:41:05 AM
A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Free Bird on September 22, 2014, 11:44:03 AM
A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.

Junk regardless, so don't go treating them as legit now


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: The Other Castro on September 22, 2014, 11:56:34 AM
Now we just need confirmation from Gravis
lol


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: windjammer on September 22, 2014, 11:57:36 AM


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: DrScholl on September 22, 2014, 11:59:22 AM
A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.

Junk regardless, so don't go treating them as legit now

I think the point you are missing is that they're polls have been overly favorable to Republicans, so it's possible that Rauner is actually trailing.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on September 22, 2014, 12:08:04 PM
A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.

Junk regardless, so don't go treating them as legit now

If a firm that favors Republicans moves 8 points in the other direction, and the trend lines up with other polls, then that says a lot about the race. Like in my state, Brown isn't running a toss-up race yet because every poll that said he's close/leading is junky, but the momentum is clearly trending towards him.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: muon2 on September 22, 2014, 12:43:16 PM
Quinn's problem remains that 41% figure for support. Except for the Trib poll, he hasn't been above 43%, even in Dem polls. That means he needs a strong break of the undecided towards him in the last 6 six weeks, probably at least a two to one break, to overcome the deficit.

His other problem is the 6% showing for the Libertarian Grimm. Grimm isn't advertising, so there's a good chance that much of the support is a protest vote. Historically the third party candidates overpoll compared to their results in the election. Since Grimm isn't advertising, it's hard to see him holding that full 6%. Also third party polling is usually anti-incumbent, and that was true in the Gov's race four years ago, so if that vote slips off of Grimm, it would tend to add to Rauner more than Quinn.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 22, 2014, 02:05:30 PM
Rauner was up double digits in prinary and managed a 2 pt win. Term limits.isnt on ballot, min wage is, it will be close.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Flake on September 22, 2014, 02:14:35 PM
Rauner was up double digits in prinary and managed a 2 pt win. Term limits.isnt on ballot, min wage is, it will be close.


"Rauner was up double digits in the primary and managed a two point win. Term limits aren't on the ballot, but the minimum wage issue is, Rauner can show he can underperform and the minimum wage issue will increase Democratic turnout, it will be close but I believe Quinn will win."

Is that what you said?


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: IceSpear on September 22, 2014, 04:33:32 PM
A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

On its own it wouldn't mean much, but combined with the other one showing Quinn in the lead, it's pretty clear momentum in this race has shifted.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: IceSpear on September 22, 2014, 04:36:37 PM
Quinn's problem remains that 41% figure for support. Except for the Trib poll, he hasn't been above 43%, even in Dem polls. That means he needs a strong break of the undecided towards him in the last 6 six weeks, probably at least a two to one break, to overcome the deficit.

His other problem is the 6% showing for the Libertarian Grimm. Grimm isn't advertising, so there's a good chance that much of the support is a protest vote. Historically the third party candidates overpoll compared to their results in the election. Since Grimm isn't advertising, it's hard to see him holding that full 6%. Also third party polling is usually anti-incumbent, and that was true in the Gov's race four years ago, so if that vote slips off of Grimm, it would tend to add to Rauner more than Quinn.

Third parties got 8% in 2010, so I don't see why they couldn't get 6% in 2014. As for Quinn not being able to crack 41%, that was pretty much the same logic people used to write him off in 2010. In fact, in the final pre-election average in November he was only at 39%. And since there's still over a month left, there's plenty of time for the support of both candidates to increase.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 22, 2014, 05:23:08 PM
Damn, I didn't realize Brady's lead in the polls was almost 5% in 2010! Quinn's keeping it closer in the polls than he did 4 years ago.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Maxwell on September 22, 2014, 05:24:17 PM
Quinn is still in trouble, but I think things are moving in his direction. Bruce Rauner isn't Bill Brady, but he's certainly trying to blow this (I mean, watch that Mike Ditka ad again, dear jesus).


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Franzl on September 22, 2014, 05:35:54 PM
I think (and hope) that Quinn is slightly favored to win, but it's really not time to celebrate yet.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 22, 2014, 09:02:53 PM
Quinn eked it out over Brady last time because late deciders decided it was better to give Quinn a second chance than to take a chance with somebody who was arguably a tea partier. Rauner is definitely not a tea partier, and Quinn's had two terms to try to do what the people of Illinois want him to do - so there's no guarantee that late deciders will once again break for Quinn, and to be only at 41% in September is not a good thing for him either. Still Lean R, but I'll reevaluate if someone more reliable (IPSOS/PPP/Quinnipiac/Suffolk, etc.) shows a similar result.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: muon2 on September 22, 2014, 09:54:10 PM
Quinn's problem remains that 41% figure for support. Except for the Trib poll, he hasn't been above 43%, even in Dem polls. That means he needs a strong break of the undecided towards him in the last 6 six weeks, probably at least a two to one break, to overcome the deficit.

His other problem is the 6% showing for the Libertarian Grimm. Grimm isn't advertising, so there's a good chance that much of the support is a protest vote. Historically the third party candidates overpoll compared to their results in the election. Since Grimm isn't advertising, it's hard to see him holding that full 6%. Also third party polling is usually anti-incumbent, and that was true in the Gov's race four years ago, so if that vote slips off of Grimm, it would tend to add to Rauner more than Quinn.

Third parties got 8% in 2010, so I don't see why they couldn't get 6% in 2014. As for Quinn not being able to crack 41%, that was pretty much the same logic people used to write him off in 2010. In fact, in the final pre-election average in November he was only at 39%. And since there's still over a month left, there's plenty of time for the support of both candidates to increase.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html

Cohen spent a few million of his personal wealth on advertising his independent run for Gov in 2010, and that gave a number of voters a choice they had heard of when the negatives went up on Brady. That isn't happening this year for Grimm. It's possible that the negative ads by Quinn against Rauner drive voters to an unknown 3rd party candidate, but if that doesn't happen Quinn has a tougher hill to climb than last time out.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Mr. Illini on September 22, 2014, 11:54:54 PM
Frustrated Illinoisans throw their support behind a Republican to throw out the incumbent and then realize that they just threw their support behind a Republican.

Have we seen this before?


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: Vega on September 23, 2014, 05:55:32 AM
Frustrated Illinoisans throw their support behind a Republican to throw out the incumbent and then realize that they just threw their support behind a Republican.

Have we seen this before?

2010 rings a bell.


Title: Re: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
Post by: muon2 on September 23, 2014, 08:04:32 AM
Frustrated Illinoisans Chicagoans throw their support behind a Republican to throw out the incumbent and then realize that they just threw their support behind a Republican, so they voted independent instead.

Have we seen this before?

If you take the polling and turnout estimates from 2010 and compare them to the returns, second thoughts about electing a Pub were primarily confined to Chicagoland. Downstate did not shift much at all, and the movement in Cook and the collar counties was towards Cohen - not to Quinn.

Consider the parallel races for US Sen and Gov in Cook:
US Senator
Giannoulias 899K, 64.3%
Kirk 442K, 31.6%
Jones (Green), 35K, 2.5%
Labno (Lib), 22K, 1.5%

Governor
Quinn, 901K, 64.4%
Brady, 400K, 28.6%
Whitney (Green), 35K, 2.5%
Green (Lib), 11K, 0.8%
Cohen (Ind), 52K, 3.8%

It's pretty clear that there is almost no difference between Quinn and Giannoulias in Cook. The Green Party candidates votes were also almost identical in the two races. However, when Cohen appears in the Gov race, his vote is consistent with voters moving mostly from Brady and a little from the Libertarian. Except for Kirk's home county of Lake, the collars were similar with Quinn generally gaining less than a percent compared to Giannoulias, but Brady losing 3% to Cohen.

In the 2010 Senate race, 4% of the voters cast ballots for third party candidates. As I noted before, what Quinn needs is to do is move more voters into that category from Rauner and then turn out his base in Cook to keep the 500K vote difference he will need to offset the rest of the state. The 2010 data shows that it was easier for voters to move to a candidate that spent 3M$ on positive advertising than to an unknown Libertarian.