Talk Elections

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/massachusetts/election_2014_massachusetts_governor

Coakley: 42%
Baker: 42%

Scott Brown probably made a huge mistake not running for this rather than NH Sen.

CoakleyLOL.

Meh, I think this race was Toss-up or Lean D with or without Coakley. It's just a better narrative for Democrats if Coakley loses because of Coakley, instead of Baker winning because of his merits as a candidate.

Yeah, not having Coakley wouldn't make this Safe D. According to hypothetical polling, the democrats having Berwick, Kayeem, or Avellone as their nominee would have actually made this a Likely R race. With everyone else, it'd be a tossup, or at the low end of Lean D/Lean R. The only democrat that looks they would have defeated Baker easily would be (congressman) Joseph P. Kennedy II.

MA is purple-blue when it comes to gubernatorial elections. Democrats have their huge registration advantage, but the right sort of republican can still do quite well.

Brown didn't want to be governor, because then he'd actually have to govern. He prefers to be a senator, where all you have to do is show up and vote the way the Kochs tell you to.

Eh, he might actually win that senate race and that's his preferred job (as IceSpear pointed out).  Also, a Baker-Brown primary might not have ended well for the MAGOP.

It could work out better for Republicans to have two competitive races rather than just one.

If Brown wanted to be a senator he probably should have stayed here too; it's not like Markey is super-popular, and if he lost he could always come back, whereas if he loses after carpetbagging to NH his career is over.

I do have to say that I found his move to NH pretty mystifying.

Sort of skeptical of this. I think Coakley is leading, but she's on a trend to blow another race in a deep blue state.

Scott Brown wants to have a seat that can be kept long-term much easier than one in Massachusetts. It's much easier to get reelected as a republican in NH then it is as a republican in MA. The problem is that the act of getting the office in the first place is hard when you're up against a popular senator and are carpetbagging. Hillary Clinton could do it because NY is deeply blue and Lazio was a mediocre candidate - and even then, she ran significantly behind Al Gore. Unfortunately for Brown, NH is not deeply red, and Shaheen remains a formidable candidate.

No he can't. He could've won MA-Gov, but he has no chance in New Hampshire

New Poll: Massachusetts Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-09-17 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2520140917016)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 42%, I: 5%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/massachusetts/election_2014_massachusetts_governor)