Talk Elections

Report. (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/09/17/senate-battleground-north-carolina/)

Hagan (D)- 41%
Tillis (R)- 36%
Haugh (L)- 6%

Dominating.

Definitely benefiting from the far-right hijacking her state. 

Lean D.

And Gardner is benefiting from the far-left hijacking of his.

He's not leading by 5%, though, he's not even in that great of a position to actually win. His numbers look like Buck's in 2010.

What worries me about NC is all the undecideds. Even while leading in the last string of polls, Hagan is often at 45% or less.

Still, there are more women undecideds in this poll, which suggests she'll grow; undecideds also break about even on Obama's approval.

If someone had told me a week ago that NC would be the only of the then-tossup States to show consistent Democratic leads while races like NH, CO and IA keep floating around, I'd find it hard to believe. Kudos, Kay! :D

41% isn't a good place for Hagan to be (admittedly, Tillis' numbers are too low as well). While Hagan has a clear advantage at this point, I have my doubts that it will last. I agree with Miles that the movement of the large number of undecided voters should be closely watched in this race.

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Fox News on 2014-09-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220140916039)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 36%, I: 6%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://personal.crocodoc.com/1Beb156?embedded=true)

Yeah, Tillis really sucks. This is now leaning in Hagan's favor.

A little speculation, but lets say Brannon won the GOP nomination, how much would Hagan lead him by?

^ At least 10. Republicans would have been better off with a clean-slate candidate, as opposed to Tillis; that said, Brannon would have been too close to the fringe to be competitive.

I agree with Miles, I'd say Hagan could be ahead of Brannon by roughly 10 points. While he fared acceptably in general election polls against Hagan during the primary (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_brannon_vs_hagan-3666.html), I suspect his level of support would have dropped precipitously after winning the nomination as voters saw more of him. Brannon doesn't have the same flaws as Tillis, but his drawbacks are enough that Hagan would definitely have even more of an advantage against him.

Alternately, in some unlikely scenario Brannon could have ended up being a candidate like Joni Ernst, keeping the race against Hagan close (though Brannon probably would have lagged behind Hagan by 2 points even in this case), but I seriously doubt that would have occurred.

ok