Talk Elections

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/091514_ElonPollExecutiveReport.pdf

Hagan 45%
Tillis 41%
Other 9%

Hagan leads by six among registered voters, 43-37.

North Carolina is increasingly looking like a Lean D state, along with Colorado and Michigan.

If the GOP captures the senate and can't win North Carolina or Iowa it's a very ominous sign.

Well well well, this is starting to look like a trend.

*ducks* before FreedomHawk calls me a hack.

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Other Source on 2014-09-09 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220140909106)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, I: 9%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/091514_ElonPollExecutiveReport.pdf)

Looks like the "tossup" states of Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina are all pink on the Atlas map now. :)

Without NC or IA the GOP would need to win AR, LA, MT, AK, WV and SD... not at all impossible, and that only gets them a bare majority - throw in a weird seat like GA or KS... and who knows.

Hagan is obviously an excellent campaigner because all indicators point to the fact that the Republicans should be winning this.

That's the fourth poll so far this month which has Hagan winning.  There was also the Tillis internal which showed a tie.  The state of the race looks clear.



On a somewhat related note, at 538 they note that the Senate Democratic candidates in purple/swing states are "beating the national mood."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-in-purple-states-are-beating-the-national-mood/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-in-purple-states-are-beating-the-national-mood/)

Impossible. Republicans will gain at least 7 seats.

Hagan has a good campaign manager. He's the guy who ran Reid's 2010 campaign, as well as Tester's 2012 campaign.

I think the financial disparity is showing too. Hagan has $7 million more in her warchest and is unloading on Tillis. Then add the $9.1 million buy from the DSCC.

It seems the denizens of North Carolina are quite fond of their new Hagancare.

Not surprising, considering that Tillis almost killed education in NC, and Democratic groups (inside as outside) using that for all it's worth. Those ads are extremely effective if I may say it myself. :)

Koch brothers unloaded more than 20 millions on Hagan during the last two years, so to talk about a financial disparity that favors her is a bit disingenuous.

()

Its been a while since Elon's had a poll here (before the summer, IIRC), but their last poll had Hagan's approval at about 33/50. She's only slightly negative now, 41/45, which helps a lot.

Over the last few polls, Hagan is holding up better than I expected with whites. She's losing them 51/34 here; if that holds, she'd be on track to relicate her 57/39 loss with them in 2008.

So I just looked at the crosstabs, and Hagan is trailing among Christians. She only leads because of her overwhelming margins with "something else" and "no religion" voters. Godless Kay Hagan indeed. Somewhere Elizabeth Dole is smiling...

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Elon University on 2014-05-09 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220140909241)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, I: 9%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/091514_ElonPollExecutiveReport.pdf)