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Title: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1 Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2014, 06:42:31 AM 45% Deal (-3)
44% Carter (+5) http://www.11alive.com/story/news/local/2014/09/09/exclusive-poll-shows-race-for-governor-tied/15323019 Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: SPQR on September 10, 2014, 06:52:55 AM Big swings in both races (Nunn going from -9 to -3,Carter going from -9 to +1).
Any reason for it,or just terrible polling/outliers? Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2014, 06:56:22 AM Big swings in both races (Nunn going from -9 to -3,Carter going from -9 to +1). Any reason for it,or just terrible polling/outliers? This poll has a D+3 sample, their previous was R+2. That might explain it. SurveyUSA also mentions that the summer break might have played a role in between: Quote Democrat Michelle Nunn has made progress over the past 3 weeks, slicing into Republican David Perdue's previous 9-point lead and trimming that to 3, according to the latest exclusive 11Alive News tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA. Perdue led 50% to 41% on 08/18/14, when many voters were still on vacation. Today, with most of Georgia back from summer break, Perdue leads 47% to 44%. The contest has national implications for which party shall control the US Senate in the next Congress. Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: backtored on September 10, 2014, 09:49:13 AM I still don't think Carter will win a runoff he can't get to 50% in November. But the Dems have a very significant GOTV effort on the ground in the state and if he is at 48 or 49 percent in the polling going into Election Day, that might be enough to knock him over the line. Not likely, but still possible.
Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: IceSpear on September 10, 2014, 09:59:12 AM Why is the sample D+3?
Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: Miles on September 10, 2014, 10:02:20 AM Splendid news!
Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2014, 10:04:02 AM Why is the sample D+3? The typical bouncing around in the polls. I guess in the previous poll, Republican voters told SUSA they are more motivated to vote in November, producing an R sample. And now Democrats say they are more motivated in GA. Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now leads by 1 Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 10, 2014, 10:16:44 AM Whoever entered the poll into the database flipped the numbers around.
Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1 Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2014, 10:24:49 AM Whoever entered the poll into the database flipped the numbers around. Looks like the 11alive-people got the numbers wrong and put Carter+1 in their article. The SUSA crosstabs show Deal+1, so the database entry is correct. Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1 Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 10, 2014, 02:54:35 PM Whoever entered the poll into the database flipped the numbers around. Looks like the 11alive-people got the numbers wrong and put Carter+1 in their article. The SUSA crosstabs show Deal+1, so the database entry is correct. :( Title: Re: GA-SurveyUSA: Carter erases 9-point Deal-lead and now trails by 1 Post by: Adam Griffin on September 11, 2014, 05:02:24 AM ()
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