Title: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:26:36 AM ()
http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/f-m-college-poll-corbett-failing-to-gain-ground-in/article_2e89c352-2e32-11e4-8e8c-001a4bcf6878.html Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:34:46 AM It's also not getting any better for Corbett when undecideds are pushed:
Quote Lean_Gov. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Tom Corbett, Tom Wolf, or are you leaning toward some other candidate? 28% Wolf 13% Corbett 59% Other/Still don't know Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:37:15 AM While they don't give combined numbers (incl. leaners), the breakdown of leaners would give us an overall result of 56% Wolf and 27% Corbett.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Senator Cris on August 28, 2014, 07:04:13 AM Lean D.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: IceSpear on August 28, 2014, 08:58:46 AM So is this lean D like Sabato says or a toss up like Cook says? I guess we'll split the difference and call it tilt D. ;)
But no really, this is a safe D race now. Time to put aside "muh incumbency" and see reality for what it is. Wolf has a bigger lead than Greg Abbott, Jerry Brown, John Cornyn, Ben Sasse, Dick Durbin, Lindsey Graham... Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Maxwell on August 28, 2014, 09:03:28 AM This race has been over for a long time, the fact that Wolf's margin continues to grow is very telling.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: MATTROSE94 on August 28, 2014, 09:16:31 AM What are the odds of Tom Wolf getting over 60% of the vote at this point?
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: pbrower2a on August 28, 2014, 09:21:07 AM Overwhelming D.
Pennsylvania can certainly turn on an incumbent in an election -- just think of Rick Sanctimonious in 2006! Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Miles on August 28, 2014, 10:12:40 AM Undecideds seem too high for me, but yeah. I don't see how Corbett comes back from this deficit in two months' time.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 28, 2014, 11:55:14 AM Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Free Bird on August 28, 2014, 01:49:11 PM Lean R
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Dixie Reborn on August 28, 2014, 02:30:09 PM Wolf under 50? Definetley Likely Republican.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Dixie Reborn on August 28, 2014, 02:31:16 PM The polls are skewed, Corbett will win in a landslide.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 04:09:32 PM Undecideds seem too high for me That's standard for F&M polls. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: backtored on August 28, 2014, 04:59:50 PM Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado. Well, no, not really. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: backtored on August 28, 2014, 05:04:30 PM I can only imagine how disastrous this is for down-ballot races.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 28, 2014, 05:05:06 PM Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado. You're joking. Right? Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: henster on August 28, 2014, 05:05:42 PM I think Wolf wins 62-36 in the end and depressed GOP turnout allows for a couple of state Senate to flip towards the Dems. I think there's a high possibility one chamber flips at this point there will be some type of coattails from all of this.
Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Flake on August 28, 2014, 05:08:07 PM Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado. You're joking. Right? I'm pretty sure it's sarcasm Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: backtored on August 28, 2014, 05:13:16 PM Why didn't they primary him?
Pennsylvania is a slowly R-trending state, and a super-important one for Republicans in 2016 and beyond. I don't understand how the GOP let this happen, unless there is some metric out there where Corbett is in better shape than we all think. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Vega on August 28, 2014, 05:14:43 PM Pennsylvania is a slowly R-trending state What? Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 05:30:51 PM Why didn't they primary him? This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence. There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 28, 2014, 05:45:50 PM Why didn't they primary him? This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence. There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though. Gerlach, right? Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 05:54:24 PM Why didn't they primary him? This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence. There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though. Gerlach, right? Bruce Castor Gerlach was talked up but he isn't a historical Corbett rival. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 28, 2014, 06:10:08 PM Oh yeah, him.
What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor? Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Vega on August 28, 2014, 06:13:46 PM Oh yeah, him. What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor? Wolf would be leading by 10 points instead of 20. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 07:12:13 PM Oh yeah, him. What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor? Wolf would be leading by 10 points instead of 20. Um. No. It would probably be a very close race. Castor has appeal in the SE and a lot of conservatives upset with Corbett would have "come home" a lot quicker for Castor (even though he's not some right wing firebrand, he's been a vocal critic of the establishment enemies of the grassroots). Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Vega on August 28, 2014, 07:16:38 PM Oh yeah, him. What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor? Wolf would be leading by 10 points instead of 20. Um. No. It would probably be a very close race. Castor has appeal in the SE and a lot of conservatives upset with Corbett would have "come home" a lot quicker for Castor (even though he's not some right wing firebrand, he's been a vocal critic of the establishment enemies of the grassroots). You might be right. I don't think any polls were ever ran of a Democrat, let alone Wolf, against Castor. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: IceSpear on August 28, 2014, 10:41:03 PM Why didn't they primary him? What Phil said, but to add to that, even though Corbett was/is extremely unpopular with the overall electorate, he still would've been the favorite to crack 50%+1 in his own party's primary. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: Keystone Phil on August 29, 2014, 04:06:10 PM Why didn't they primary him? What Phil said, but to add to that, even though Corbett was/is extremely unpopular with the overall electorate, he still would've been the favorite to crack 50%+1 in his own party's primary. His ratings amongst Republicans have been weak for awhile. Polls showed something like 45% of Republicans believed he deserved a second term while 40% said he didn't. He might have been the favorite for reasons I mentioned but immense popularity amongst GOP voters isn't one of those reasons. Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 Post by: IceSpear on August 29, 2014, 05:37:15 PM Why didn't they primary him? What Phil said, but to add to that, even though Corbett was/is extremely unpopular with the overall electorate, he still would've been the favorite to crack 50%+1 in his own party's primary. His ratings amongst Republicans have been weak for awhile. Polls showed something like 45% of Republicans believed he deserved a second term while 40% said he didn't. He might have been the favorite for reasons I mentioned but immense popularity amongst GOP voters isn't one of those reasons. Oh, I know that. I was just saying that despite his tepid approvals among Republicans, the fact that he still would've been the favorite in the primary probably dissuaded potential challengers from running. |