Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on August 27, 2014, 01:05:11 PM



Title: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2014, 01:05:11 PM
Article. (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/08/27/joni-ernst-bruce-braley-usa-today-suffolk-poll-iowa-senate-race/14686001/)

Braley (D)- 40.2%
Ernst (R)- 40%

Ernst is winning Indies 39/36.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Senator Cris on August 27, 2014, 01:07:49 PM
That close race in Iowa!


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Gass3268 on August 27, 2014, 01:18:26 PM
Not that this poll shows anything different from what we've been seeing, but decimals.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2014, 01:20:18 PM
The best thing for Ernst is that undecideds skew older and are less likely to approve of Obama.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on August 27, 2014, 01:51:43 PM
The best thing for Ernst is that undecideds skew older and are less likely to approve of Obama.

This is the opposite of what the PPP poll showed, isn't it?


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Free Bird on August 27, 2014, 01:54:17 PM
The indies are gonna be the deciders in this one


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Matty on August 27, 2014, 01:58:26 PM
Is this more a result of Ernst being able to connect to the Iowa population, or Braley being a moron on the campaign trail?


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2014, 01:58:56 PM
The best thing for Ernst is that undecideds skew older and are less likely to approve of Obama.

This is the opposite of what the PPP poll showed, isn't it?

Yeah, the PPP poll has undecideds tilting towards Obama. They have 14% of Obama's voters undecided, only 11% for Romney voters.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: SWE on August 27, 2014, 01:59:57 PM
Is this more a result of Ernst being able to connect to the Iowa population, or Braley being a moron on the campaign trail?

Definitely the latter


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Vega on August 27, 2014, 03:09:17 PM
Once a toss-up, still a toss-up.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: IceSpear on August 27, 2014, 04:45:56 PM
()

Is this the closest race in the country at the moment?


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Vega on August 27, 2014, 04:47:40 PM
Is this the closest race in the country at the moment?

I believe so.

Who would have thought a year ago it would be so close. 


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: GaussLaw on August 27, 2014, 07:09:08 PM
()

Is this the closest race in the country at the moment?

Wow.  IA-SEN is the definition of a tossup.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Panda Express on August 27, 2014, 07:10:18 PM
braley you suck


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: KCDem on August 27, 2014, 07:29:06 PM

Is this the closest race in the country at the moment?

Not for long.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Miles on August 27, 2014, 08:04:42 PM

Yeah, hopefully those undecideds don't start breaking for Ernst and put her clearly ahead.


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: KCDem on August 27, 2014, 08:16:59 PM

Yeah, hopefully those undecideds don't start breaking for Ernst and put her clearly ahead.

I think I trust the undecided breakdown from PPP as being Dem-leaning. They will break for Braley. Suffolk is the same pollster that stopped polling Florida and Virginia in 2012, because they were "safe Romney"...yeah...it's those guys...


Title: Re: IA: Suffolk: Ernst, Braley tied
Post by: Never on August 27, 2014, 10:13:45 PM
()

Is this the closest race in the country at the moment?

Wow.  IA-SEN is the definition of a tossup.

To think if it weren't for YouGov, the RCP average of this race would be completely tied. That's not something we see too often with polling averages.