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Title: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Miles on August 20, 2014, 01:08:52 PM Article. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/08/20/usa-today-suffolk-university-poll-of-north-carolina-hagan-tillis/14326079/)
Hagan (D)- 45% Tillis (R)- 43% Haugh (L)- 5% Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Free Bird on August 20, 2014, 01:10:27 PM How reliable is Suffolk?
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Miles on August 20, 2014, 01:13:25 PM ^ I don't think they've done much work in NC, but looks like most of their 2012 polls underestimated Obama in swing states. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?type=src&source_id=63)
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: IceSpear on August 20, 2014, 01:15:54 PM Isn't Suffolk the pollster that said they weren't going to bother polling Virginia or Florida in 2012 since they were solid Romney states?
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: RogueBeaver on August 20, 2014, 01:17:45 PM Isn't Suffolk the pollster that said they weren't going to bother polling Virginia or Florida in 2012 since they were solid Romney states? Indeed. Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Miles on August 20, 2014, 01:19:41 PM ^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them. (http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/suffolk-pollster-were-not-polling-florida-virginia-or-north-carolina-anymore-because-romneys-going-to-win-them/)
'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record ;) Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: IceSpear on August 20, 2014, 01:24:19 PM ^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them. (http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/suffolk-pollster-were-not-polling-florida-virginia-or-north-carolina-anymore-because-romneys-going-to-win-them/) 'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record ;) To add insult to injury, Obama came closer to carrying NC than Romney came to carrying VA. :P Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: backtored on August 20, 2014, 01:46:33 PM ^ Wow, yeah. They said Romney was clearly gonna win FL, VA and NC so no need to poll them. (http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/suffolk-pollster-were-not-polling-florida-virginia-or-north-carolina-anymore-because-romneys-going-to-win-them/) 'Guess 1 for 3 is a good record ;) To add insult to injury, Obama came closer to carrying NC than Romney came to carrying VA. :P To be fair, though, this poll is pretty much where I would peg the race. Misreading where the most competitive races are isn't necessarily the same thing as getting funky data. These may be really good numbers right now. Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Tender Branson on August 21, 2014, 01:08:49 AM If Haugh voters are asked who they back, Hagan only leads 47-46 though.
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Senator Cris on August 21, 2014, 03:40:08 AM Plausible numbers.
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Miles on August 21, 2014, 12:37:03 PM Full crosstabs. (http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_20_2014_tables.pdf)
Hagan's approval is 41/48 (similar to what PPP found). There's a good chunk of voters who aren't sure of Tillis, but he's not popular, at 24/39 favorables. Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: RRusso1982 on August 21, 2014, 01:14:30 PM Suffolk also came out with a poll during the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial election that had Corzine 9 points ahead of Christie a week before the election.
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: GaussLaw on August 21, 2014, 05:48:14 PM Full crosstabs. (http://server14.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/szjl/stvzrsih/snop/p1/documents/SUPRC/8_20_2014_tables.pdf) Hagan's approval is 41/48 (similar to what PPP found). There's a good chunk of voters who aren't sure of Tillis, but he's not popular, at 24/39 favorables. I've seen Tillis with much higher unfavorables in other polls. Didn't one of them have him at 48 unfavorable? What's with the discrepancy? Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: Miles on August 21, 2014, 07:16:37 PM ^ PPP had him at 28/48. This poll has more who don't have an opinion of him. The difference isn't that much (-20 vs. -15), especially considering that his name rec will still grow.
Title: Re: NC: Suffolk: Hagan holds narrow lead Post by: henster on August 21, 2014, 10:45:58 PM Haugh will get less than 2% of the vote he's not Sarvis he's some random pizza guy with no money. Hagan only wins this by nuking Tillis making him unacceptable to voters because she has no brand of her own.
Title: NC: Suffolk University: Close Contest in North Carolina Senate Post by: ElectionAtlas on August 22, 2014, 03:06:11 AM New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Suffolk University on 2014-08-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220140816063)
Summary: D: 45%, R: 43%, I: 5%, U: 5% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php) |