Talk Elections

http://t.co/y8Xlgxyvb5
(I hope that link works)

McConnell: 44%
Grimes: 40

Even PPP, huh.

47/42 with leaners, disapproval easing. Republicans coming home.

It should be noted that PPP has now started to switch to "likely voters":


Also:

This is not great news for Grimes. If numbers keep going in McConnell's direction, I'll move it back to Lean R.

:(

But, muh PPP

Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?

Haven't heard much at all about this race in the past week or so.

What's really interesting is that Democrat Conway leads the entire GOP field for governor. But this isn't a slam dunk, because you can count on the right-wing media machine to kick into high gear.

Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.

People don't know yet that Comer is a Tea Party member.

Yeah, seems like Grimes' chances are plummeting.

I just saw them say on Twitter a few weeks ago that they don't switch to likely voters until after Labor Day. Strange.

It is finished.

Correct. Once they find out Comer should be comfortably ahead.

Grimes isnt done yet, she will respond since she is down.

I expect KY to go down to very end.

For as much as McConnell needs to go, I gotta admit that if Grimes doesn't start talking about the minimum wage and the right to unionize, she won't pull it off.

A lead that most polls have showed her within 4 pts, doesnt mean she is finished. Right now most older voters side with McConnell, but she is far from done.

But Grimes will win the cities and the New America votes, HOW IS THAT FAIR? [/Bandit the Crazy]

If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.

McConnell was running against Bruce Lunsford of all people in 2008.

Bruce freaking Lunsford.

2008 wasn't exactly a "Dem wave year" in Kentucky, considering Obama was on the ballot and he did very poorly there. Besides, Grimes is a much better candidate than Lunsford, and McConnell is more unpopular than he was in 2008.

But! But! Bandit! I thought Mitch was going I plummet after he "bombed" at Fancy Feast.

I don't get this notion that McConnell "bombed" at Fancy Feast.  Voters in KY don't like Obama, and McConnell was able to tap into that sentiment quite well. 

Anyways, RV -> LV changes things up.  We all knew this would happen, which is why Silver wrote in 538 that one must take current Congressional Ballot polls with a grain of salt.

Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.

Wait, did McConnell appear on a cat food commercial? It's clear that he has a *small* lead right now, but the election is still nearly three months away, and he is up by four. It's delusional to say the race is over.

How do you define "crushed"? Even if McConnell wins, there's no way in hell it will be by double digits, and I'd be very shocked if it was by more than 5.

Look closely kids, someone asutely spotted the central issue of this race: Whether the undecided voters' dislike of Obama is sufficiently stronger than their dislike of McConnell to forego supporting Grimes.

Grimes isn't Obama.

But McConnell is McConnell.

Take a look at Wi and KS gubernatorial elections, Dems can pick up. It is a reform yr, and anti incumbant yr, McConnell isnt safe.

Come on dude, year is only a 4 letter word.

Which is exactly my point. Most undecided voters in this race dislike Obama and McConnell, but dislike Obama more. The question is whether that Obama hate is sufficiently greater for those who dislike McConnell to reject a non-Obama Democrat.

My take, advantage McConnell, but don't write Grimes off.

There's a big difference between winning a gubernatorial race and a senate race