Talk Elections

New Mexico Governor: Martinez (R) 43%, King (D) 43%

The survey of 860 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted on July 21-22, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/new_mexico/election_2014_new_mexico_governor

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Rassy being Rassy.

It would be pretty sweet. Polls are definitely all over the place right now.

Bruce King was already gov of NM. This state is rype for picking.

This would be tasty if true.

It's Rasmussen, but PPP also showed this surprisingly close. Probably worth keeping an eye on.

Campaign has been silent so far so it's kind of Generic D vs incumbent right now.

Martinez is an infinitely better candidate than King when push comes to shove, though. Only way she doesn't win is if this turns into a Democratic wave year between now and November.

WHHHHHHAAAAAT?

I was thinking this one's final tally would be comparable to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_gubernatorial_election,_2013" target="_blank" title="Example">this</a>

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-07-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3520140722016)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/new_mexico/election_2014_new_mexico_governor)

Haha

As a GOP pollster he has shown Walker, Scott and Martinez in danger of losing.

Wonderful news! Democrats will solidify Clinton's hold on the presidency if we knock off Martinez and Scott Walker this November.

No. No. No. Don't any of you dare start calling Rassy reputable now.

Rassy is Rassy, I feel the same way toward the Fallin poll even though I hope it is true. We'll have to see more polling.

Sadly, PPP will never poll Oklahoma. Luckily, they may poll New Mexico.

Not buying this, Rasmussen always seems like they're all over the place.

I don't think Martinez is up by a lot, but I don't think she's in too much danger of losing either.

I mean, aside from the scandals, she is too conservative for the state as well (even opposing amnesty) which might be able to counterbalance King's awful past as Attorney General. Still, PPP's poll is probably more on track with this race with Rassy being so terrible on both Dem and GOP biases. It would be nice if we could unseat her, but she still has the advantage.

Can you guys seriously stop saying "we?" Makes you sound like some alien hive mind.

He knows too much.

It isn't 2010 anymore.

The state could simply be getting too Dem.  I still think she will win, but I could easily see it being a 51/47 affair with the GOP not gaining legislative ground like they hoped.

King, if you end up beating Martinez, what are your plans for running the state?

Also, the polls overestimated her in 2010. The average had her up 11 and she won by 7.

I still think she'll win by 4-7 points though. 

True.  You really don't want to be tied going into election day if you are a Republican in the Southwest.

This was a race that Martinez should of won easily. This may be an bellweather, usually so goes NM and CO so goes OH. Just maybe, Kasich is more vul than the polls are indicative.

Keep in mind that since NM is a bluish state, most of the remaining undecided voters will break Democratic in the end.  Martinez will want to be above 50% by the time Election Day rolls around.  This would be a huge, huge upset though and possibly, a major hit to the GOP nationally given the Hispanic population in NM.

Martinez is no Sandoval, King is no Goodman, and New Mexico is not Nevada. This was never going to be a landslide.

Not that it's a good comparison as the state has changed, but even the moderate Gary Johnson struggled somewhat in his re-election bid back in '98 (winning by eight points).  Democrats won every other down-ballot race that year, with Johnson's being the only GOP win on the NM ticket during that cycle.

It's a mistake to call Gary Johnson a moderate. Yes, he was socially moderate, but he was very fiscally conservative, and he got a fairly good opponent.

That was back when Republicans were still doing OK-ish in New Mexico. Bush even won the state once with his triangulation on immigration. Without a candidate who can triangulate like that, New Mexico is definitely a task.

LOL, bellweathers don't exist for governor races.