Talk Elections

Anyone have opinions on the Jennifer Mann (D) vs. Pat Browne (R) race?  I really hope Jennifer Mann wins.  I actually canvassed for her yesterday.  It seems like Pat Browne does nothing for his Legislative district and has been DUI twice.  Hopefully winning this seat will help our chances in 2006 with unseating Rick Santorum.

Is this the Schwartz seat?

No, it's Charlie Dent's Senate seat.

I am worried. Mann is on air with the DUI ads. I think Browne will probably still pull it out but it'll be closer than it would have been before (without the ads).

Is Schwartz's seat still open?

I think so. It's solid Dem so it doesn't matter for us.

I definitely think Jennifer Mann will pull it out.  People love her in that area.  Hell, she should have ran for Congress.

Mann is very popular but Browne seems pretty popular himself and has a lot of big name support (though Mann just had an event with Casey).

See what happens tonight!

I'll be posting update throughout the night (for all those Pennsylvanians that care).

Where can you go to view the results as they come in?  (TV preferably)

Unless PCN is on, no where on TV. Here is a link where they state that results will be available later this evening: http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-electionpromo0405,0,3028590.story?coll=all-news-hed

Thanks,  I also get channel 69 out of Allentown or Reading, do you know if they'll have updates throughout the evening?

Hopefully PCN has updates.  Off topic question, why do some seats have special elections later. About a month ago, special elections were held for a state senate seat.  Why the difference?

I honestly have no idea and to address nini's point, I also have channel 69. I'm guessing they'll be following it.

Yeah I had to flip to channel 69 for updates on state house races this election.

I did a bit of research on both candidates' re-election bids from 2000-2004.

2000

Browne re-elected with 59% of the vote.

Mann re-elected with 71% of the vote.

2002

Browne re-elected with 62% of the vote.

Mann re-elected with No opponent

2004

Browne re-elected with 91% of the vote.

Mann re-elected with 71% of the vote.

Don't see how you can draw much from those. 

Nothing really. Just wanted to provide some background.

My prediction (Let's see how well I can do on this one :D )

Browne - 52%
Mann - 48%

There is an Independent candidate but I don't see him getting much of anything in this race.

No polls, no track record, no anything. 

I'll say Democrat pickup

Mann     54%
Browne 46%

Wow. Not just a win but a pretty comfortable one, too. Either way this race goes, it'll be close.

That's the problem, I have nothing, zip, zero to make my prediction on.  I flipped a coin, and picked a victory margin randomly.

The official results should be coming in shortly.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionReturns.aspx?control=OfficeDistrictReturns&ElecID=2&OfficeID=12

For whatever reason, the DOS isn't updating the results. Here's the local station. Browne up by 5%!

http://www.stormcenter.info/election/race1.shtml

70% reporting

Browne - 11,058 - 52%
Mann -  9,717 - 45%
Minder - 591 - 3%

That's pretty much the end.

94% reporting

Browne - 14,809 - 53%
Mann - 12,519 - 44%
Minder - 845 - 3%

Wow, screwed that prediction up bad eh?  Only 11 points off :)

Hey, as long as you screwed up in favor of the Democrat, everything is fine.  :)

Final Results

MANN, JENNIFER L. (DEM) 13,507  44.58%
BROWNE, PAT M. (REP)     15,911  52.51%
MINDER, DRAKE E. (IND)        883    2.91%

Clearly Keystone Phil aced this prediction fairly nicely.  Good job.

It's a shame for us Dems to lose someone as talented as Jennifer Mann.  Not sure what the rules are regarding her House seat.  She should have won this one.

Eh I guess there's a first for everything!  :)

Flyers, I don't see what this race would have to do with her House seat. Just think of it as Street running for Senate in 2006 (Just play along for a second). His term ends in 2008 but he'd be running in 2006. He'd still be Mayor.

This is getting bumped (even though probably only myself and Flyers will care...) for tomorrow's Special Election in the 131st Legislative district.

Pat Browne vacated his seat after winning the State Senate seat that was discussed in this thread. Tomorrow, a Special election will be held to fill the seat. The candidates are: Karen Beyer (R), Linda Minger (D), Drake Minder (I) and some Green party candidate.

Minder also ran in the State Senate election that was held back in April.

Pat Browne won in this district with 90% of the vote in 2004 but that's mainly because the Dems didn't even bother to put up a candidate. In 2002, however, Browne only won with about 62%. In 2000, Browne won with 59%.

Point is: The voters grew to know and like Pat Browne. A problem for Beyer - not as well known. However, some good news - It's a good GOP district (I have family in the district. I know a bit about it).

I'll post my prediction later.

I care...a bit :)

Though the district has over a thousand more Democrats than Republicans, many of these Dems fit the conservative Democrat description and have been used to voting Republican on the local level for awhile.

My prediction:

Beyer (R) - 52%
Minger (D) - 47%
Other - 1%

I think that seems about right, we just can't seem to pull it out in the Lehigh Valley.  I also wonder if there will be any name confusion with Minger/Minder.   Flyers, did you end up going and campaigning for Minger this weekend?

I was thinking about the Minger/Minder thing, too. And Drake Minder is also known because of his run in the State Senate race.

I'm sure Flyers went up to campaign. I was going to go up tomorrow but there were some conflicts with work/getting up there. All I know is that I keep reminding my aunt and uncle to get out to vote. If I was up there, I know I'd be working hard to get their whole neighborhood out. All I can do is hope that people remember...

No, due to family affairs I had to stay home this time.  I REALLY wanted to go up there thought.  KP, hate to disappoint you but recent polls had Minger up!

What polls? No public polls were released. Whatever you're getting from Camp Minger is most likely slanted in her favor big time.

By the way, how's that ever so popular State Senator Jennifer Mann doing?

83% reporting...

Beyer (R) - 50%
Minger (D) - 43%
Minder (I) - 5%
Scheirer (G) - 2%

:D

93% reporting...

Stays the same - Beyer 50%   Minger  43%  Other 7%

Minger is down by 452 votes. It's over.

Allentown's Channel 69 (WFMZ) says Meyer "looks to be the winner" in the race. Turnout is said to be alittle over 10%.

The DOS site shows Meyer 50% Minger 43% Other 7% but WFMZ http://wfmz.com/election/race1.asp shows something different...

Beyer - 52%
Minger - 41%
Minder - 5%
Scheirer - 2%




How did tonight's poll look for Minger?

Not that suprising. If the third party candidates would have campaigned harder, they could have made a larger difference.

Minder is an interesting guy. He got 3% in the Special Senate election due to the negative campaigning by the Republicans and Dems. I think it's fair to say he's about as recognizable as Beyer and Minger (and that's awesome for a third party candidate).

The Green party candidate - How is he doing it? The local paper in Allentown reported that he was almost invisible on the campaign trail and PA 131 is in no way a liberal area so this 2% is odd.

Anyway, WFMZ has 100% reporting. Beyer  51%  Minger  42%.

Expecting Minger to win is like expecting Goliath to get back up and kill David and eat his bloody flesh.

Tell that to Flyers. Apparently, his made up polls had her winning this.

Even though the Dems have the voter registration advantage, this is a Republican friendly district. You'd need a conservative Democrat and a horrible Republican stuck in scandal throughout the campaign to win this seat.

Expect Beyer to have an easy time getting re-elected as time goes by.

I want to apologize for some confusion. I kept referred to Karen Beyer as Karen Meyer maybe twice in this thread. The names are confusing in this race. You have Minder and Minger and then Beyer so I start thinking "Meyer." Just so everyone knows, it's Karen Beyer.  :)